Credibility in Crises: The Role of Leadership Beliefs in State Threat Assessments By Julia Mary Macdonald B.A. in History and Philosophy, December 2002, University of Otago B.A. (Hons.) in International Relations, December 2003, University of Canterbury M.A. (Hons.) in International Relations, August 2006, University of Chicago A Dissertation submitted to The Faculty of The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy August 31, 2016 Dissertation directed by Charles Glaser Professor of Political Science and International Affairs The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University certifies that Julia Mary Macdonald has passed the Final Examination for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy as of July 28, 2016. This is the final and approved form of the dissertation. Credibility in Crises: The Role of Leadership Beliefs in State Threat Assessments Julia Mary Macdonald Dissertation Research Committee: Charles Glaser, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Dissertation Director James Lebovic, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Committee Member Alexander Downes, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Committee Member ii © Copyright 2016 by Julia Macdonald All rights reserved iii Dedication To my parents, Cynthia and Graham Macdonald. iv Acknowledgments So many people have helped me through this long journey. My committee members have been a constant source of inspiration and support from the beginning of this project through to the very end. I first met Charlie Glaser during my M.A. degree in Chicago and was awed by his incredible intellect. I was very fortunate that Charlie made the move to the George Washington University (GWU) just a year after I started the Ph.D. program, and I am incredibly grateful to have benefitted from his rigorous thinking, constructive feedback, and good humor at every step of this dissertation process. James Lebovic has been one of my biggest champions and sources of support since I first met him in 2009. His faith in my abilities and constant encouragement to keep writing kept me afloat during many difficult times. Alexander Downes arrived at George Washington just as I was embarking on my dissertation prospectus. Alex quickly took me under his wing, provided invaluable professional guidance, and influenced the development of this project in profound ways. I feel incredibly honored to have worked not only with three great scholars, but also three wonderful human beings. I have benefitted enormously from the collegiality and supportive environment found within the walls of the GWU political science department. Elizabeth Saunders has been a wonderful and generous mentor from my early years in the program and has never failed to respond to my regular requests for advice or feedback. She also served as the internal reader for this dissertation and provided invaluable comments at my defense, as did Jim Goldgeier. Caitlin Talmadge has also provided great support and professional advice over the past few years and I am very grateful for the opportunities that she has made possible. I feel very fortunate to have had two young, fearsomely smart women in v international security offer me their time and mentorship during such an important period of my life. I only hope to be able to provide the same service to other junior scholars in the future. In addition to Caitlin and Elizabeth, I have had the good fortune of working with a number of outstanding faculty at GWU, including Stephen Biddle, Chad Rector, Joanna Spear, Susan Sell, and more. These individuals all provided encouragement and support in different ways throughout the Ph.D. program and I thank them all. The GWU graduate students are unique in being both smart and wonderful people to be around. In my early years of the program I made fast friends with Amanda Alcorn, Daniel Nerenberg, Chana Solomon-Schwartz, Seokjoon Kim, Inwook Kim, Jackson Woods, Rachel Whitlark, Davy Banks, Joey O’Mahoney, Lisel Hintz, and Tristan Volpe. From prospectus writing groups to commiserating over glasses of wine, this group helped get through the first few years in Washington D.C. Alanna Torres-Van Antwerp was my partner in crime for so much of this journey and has been the best friend, roommate, and cheerleader that anyone could ask for, as has Luz, her amazing wife. I was incredibly fortunate that just as Alanna graduated, Jacquelyn Schneider joined the political science department at GWU. Her enthusiasm and unmatched passion for everything she does gave me a new lease on life. She is in equal parts co-collaborator extraordinaire and best friend – the unicorn of academia. In addition to GWU, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and the Stanton Foundation have provided generous financial support. My time as a pre-doctoral fellow in the Security Studies Program at MIT was one of the best of my life. Barry Posen, Vipin Narang, and Frank vi Gavin provided great feedback and support during my first year in Cambridge. Vipin and Frank especially have become wonderful mentors as well as my favorite international travel partners – a trend that I hope continues in the future. At MIT I also found a cohort of incredibly smart and welcoming students. Henrik Hiim and Alexander Lanoszka were fantastic colleagues, as were Reid Pauly, Cullen Nutt, Marika Landau-Wells, Alec Worsnop, Catherine Worsnop, Amanda Rothschild, and especially Fiona Cunningham. I am particularly thankful to MIT for introducing me to Lena Andrews and Mark Bell. Lena is one of the kindest and smartest people that I know and has been a constant source of encouragement during this last stretch of dissertation writing, while Mark has been the best British ally, squash partner, friend, co-conspirator, and colleague that I could ask for. I am so grateful to both of them for their friendship and support. At Belfer I was introduced to another new group of wonderful scholars and friends. Mike Poznansky, Evan Perkoski, Eliza Georghe, and Rupal Mehta in particular all provided helpful feedback but also some much needed fun during my final year in Cambridge. During this time I also benefitted from the very helpful insights of Sean Lynn-Jones, Steve Miller, Martin Malin, and Kelly Greenhill. Peter Feaver, Joseph Grieco, and Joshua Rovner are also owed heartfelt thanks for providing feedback on earlier drafts of the dissertation. I have many friends outside of academia who have suffered through this journey with me. My Kiwi friends in Washington D.C. have never failed to provide moral support and encouragement when my motivation was fading. I owe special thanks to Elena and Richard Prendergast, Justine Arroll, Harry Smith, and Katie Ellena who generously opened their homes to me on countless occasions when I traveled back to D.C. They vii provided a much-needed escape from my academic world and constantly reminded me of the bigger picture. As is often the case, the greatest thanks are owed to those closest to home. Peter has been my rock throughout the Ph.D. program, never wavering in his belief that I could finish. He has lived through every step of this process without complaint, sacrificing sleep, his weekends, and enduring long periods of long-distance in order for me to be able to achieve this goal. I am eternally grateful for his support, faith, love, and willingness to proof read countless drafts of my various papers and dissertation chapters. I do not know how I would have done this without him. My family means to world to me, and it has been hard living so far away from home for so long. My brother and sister-in-law have been tireless cheerleaders, supporting me even when it meant staying in the United States. I love them both dearly. Finally, this dissertation is dedicated to my parents. Not only are they the smartest people that I know, but they also taught me from an early age to believe in myself and to have the strength to pursue my dreams. They inspired me to start my Ph.D., and their constant love, support, and encouragement drove me to the finish line. Better than the degree itself is the knowledge that I have made them proud. I thank them with all of my heart. viii Abstract of Dissertation Credibility in Crises: The Role of Leadership Beliefs in State Threat Assessment Why is it that some threats are considered credible by states during crises, while others are not? How do target states interpret coercive signals intended to establish threat credibility during these periods? These questions are central to both academic and policy debates about the effectiveness of coercive diplomacy. Yet despite their importance to scholars and practitioners alike, we lack good answers to these questions. In this dissertation I argue that variation in leadership beliefs within a target state is key to understanding how threatening signals are interpreted during crises. Research within political science has shown that decision makers’ differing belief systems and assumptions about the world around them can hold important implications for political outcomes. I build on this research to argue that a target state’s prior interactions with an adversary determine its leader’s beliefs and expectations regarding the extent of that adversary’s interests and satisfaction with the status quo. Previous crises provide crucial information to target state leaders both about an adversary’s political objectives, and the costs that adversary is willing to absorb to achieve its goals. Taken collectively, this information – gleaned through ‘experiences of resolve’ – enables target state leaders to form beliefs about the extent of an adversary’s foreign policy interests, and the ways in which that adversary will pursue its objectives in the future.