A First Carbon Budget for the Isle of Man

Isle of Man Green Party 9 January 2020

Table of Contents 1. Background to the First Carbon Budget ...... 3 2. What is a Carbon Budget ...... 3 3. The Isle of Man Carbon Budget ...... 4 4. The Consequences of 1.5°C and 2°C of Warming ...... 6 5. Assumptions Applied and Indications for Further Research ...... 9

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Executive Summary

A carbon budget allows each country to determine their own carbon dioxide emissions target. Carbon budgets are based on a defined share of the total global carbon dioxide emissions that would lead to an increase in global average temperature of 1.5°C (from pre-industrial levels).

This first carbon budget produced for the Isle of Man identifies that if, from today, Isle of Man emissions per head were the same for every human on the planet, there would be a 50% probability that global average temperatures would increase by 1.5°C by 2026 (from pre-industrial levels).

The Isle of Man Green Party is concerned that the target that Professor James Curran and the Climate Change Emergency Transformation Team have been set of net zero emissions by 2050 does not accurately represent the challenges faced by the Isle of Man of avoiding a 1.5°C increase in global average temperatures.

The Isle of Man Green Party considers that it is important that Isle of Man society understands the terms and the timeline of the challenges facing our community in order that informed choices can be made for our future.

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1. Background to this First Carbon Budget

1.1. On Tuesday 18 June 2019, the Isle of Man Parliament Tynwald declared a climate emergency in the terms of the following resolution:-

“That Tynwald welcomes the Chief Minister’s statement that the Government recognises the climate change emergency that is facing the planet and is committed to immediate action on this; welcomes further related measures and policy initiatives; and calls on the Council of Ministers to set up a dedicated climate emergency transformation team, led by an independent Chair with relevant expertise, to develop the climate change action plan to include ambitious target options for achieving net zero carbon emissions with interim targets and a climate impact assessment of proposals; in order to inform any statutory target obligations included in the proposed Climate Change Bill being introduced in the next legislative year; and calls upon the Government to lay its Climate Change Action Plan before Tynwald by January 2020.”

The resolution recognised the emergency facing the Isle of Man and the world from our changing climate and committed to addressing the challenge of climate change by achieving net zero emissions (with a target indicated during that sitting of 2050).

1.2. In order to prepare the Government’s Climate Change Action Plan, Professor James Curran was appointed in July 2019 to lead the Climate Change Emergency Transformation Team (“CCETT”). We understand that the report of Professor Curran and the CCETT will be released in early January 2020 and will set out the terms of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

2. What is a Carbon Budget

2.1. The release of greenhouse gases (predominately carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere is causing the warming of our planet and associated climate change impacts. A carbon budget is a measure of the total amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted by the world in the future before a certain temperature (above pre-industrial levels) is reached.

2.2. Carbon budgets have been adopted by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) since the Fifth Assessment Report of 2014 to link the release of quantities of carbon dioxide and the predicted associated temperature rise. In the IPCC’s 2018 Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C , the IPCC identified the four following carbon budgets before 1.5 °C and 2°C of warming (above pre-industrial levels) are reached:-

2.2.1. 66% chance of avoiding 1.5°C of warming: 420 gigatonnes 2.2.2. 50% chance of avoiding 1.5°C of warming: 580 gigatonnes 2.2.3. 66% chance of avoiding 2°C of warming: 1170 gigatonnes 2.2.4. 50% chance of avoiding 2°C of warming: 1500 gigatonnes

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2.3. The Isle of Man Green Party is not aware of a carbon budget for the Isle of Man having been calculated to estimate the budget remaining before 1.5 and 2°C of warming are reached globally.

3. The Isle of Man Carbon Budget

3.1. The Isle of Man Green Party’s First Carbon Budget apportions an ‘equal’ budget to the Isle of Man in respect of its share of the global carbon budgets produced by the IPCC per head of population (see 2.2.1 – 2.2.4 above):-

3.1.1. 66% chance of avoiding 1.5°C of warming: 4,665,584 tonnes (“Stronger Chance of Avoiding 1.5°C“) 3.1.2. 50% chance of avoiding 1.5°C of warming: 6,442,949 tonnes (“Weaker Chance of Avoiding 1.5°C“) 3.1.3. 66% chance of avoiding 2°C of warming: 12,996,984 tonnes (“Stronger Chance of Avoiding 2°C“) 3.1.4. 50% chance of avoiding 2°C of warming: 16,662,800 tonnes (“Weaker Chance of Avoiding 2°C“)

3.2. The graph overleaf entitled ‘Isle of Man CO2 Budget to 1.5 and 2°C ’ identifies the four carbon budgets for the Isle of Man at 3.1.1 – 3.1.4 in terms of the number years the Isle of Man can continue to release carbon dioxide at current levels (of 9.55 tonnes1 per person per year) before the carbon budgets are exhausted:-

3.2.1. Blue Column: number of years to use up the carbon budget of a Stronger Chance of Avoiding 1.5°C if no emission reductions are made (2023). 3.2.2. Orange Column: number of years to use up the carbon budget of a Weaker Chance of Avoiding 1.5°C if no emission reductions are made (2026). 3.2.3. Grey Column: number of years to use up the carbon budget of a Stronger Chance of Avoiding 2°C if no emission reductions are made (2035). 3.2.4. Yellow Column: number of years to use up the carbon budget of a Weaker Chance of Avoiding 2°C if no emission reductions are made (2039).

1 GD No. 2016/0031 (June 2016) (http://www.tynwald.org.im/business/opqp/sittings/Tynwald%2020142016/2016-GD-0031.pdf)

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Isle of Man CO2 Budget to Avoid 1.5 & 2°C If no Reduction in Current Annual Emisions 20000000

15000000

10000000

5000000

0

2030 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2031 2032 2033 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 -5000000 2017

1.5 (66%) 1.5 (50%) 2 (66%) 2 (50%)

3.3. The graph below entitled ‘Carbon Budget Remaining Under Emissions Reductions Scenarios (a) 20% p/a for 1.5 (66%) (b) 13% p/a for 1.5 (50%)’ illustrates estimates for how long the carbon budgets estimated above at 3.1.1 – 3.1.2 will last before they are exhausted assuming:-

3.3.1. Blue Column: To give the world a 66% chance (Stronger Chance) of keeping global temperatures below 1.5 °C , Isle of Man emissions are reduced 20% per year from the year 2020: the budget will be exhausted by 2035 with 3.5% of 2020 emissions still being emitted.

3.3.2. Orange Column: To give the world a 50% chance (Weaker Chance) of keeping global temperatures below 1.5°C , Isle of Man emissions are reduced 13% per year from the year 2020: the budget will be exhausted by 2037 with 9.5% of 2020 emissions still being emitted.

Carbon Budget Remaining Under Emissions Reduction Scenarios (a) 20% reduction p/a for 1.5°C (66%) (b) 13% reduction p/a for 1.5°C (50%)

7000000 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0

-1000000

2019 2029 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2017 1.5 (66%) 1.5 (50%) 5

3.4. The graph below entitled ‘Reduction in Annual Isle of Man Emissions Before Carbon Budgets for avoiding 1.5°C (Stronger and Weaker Chance) are Exhausted’ illustrates the following scenarios for the Isle of Man:-

3.4.1. Blue Column: the reduction in total annual Isle of Man emissions of carbon dioxide by 20% per year to attempt to avoid 1.5°C of global warming (Stronger Chance of Avoiding 1.5°C); and,

3.4.2. Orange Column: the reduction in total annual Isle of Man emissions of carbon dioxide by 13% per year to attempt to avoid 1.5°C of global warming (Weaker Chance of Avoiding 1.5°C).

Reduction in Annual Isle of Man Emissions Before Carbon Budgets for avoiding 1.5°C (Stronger and Weaker Chance) are Exhausted 800000

600000

400000

200000

0

1.5 (66% Chance) (20% Reduction p/a) 1.5 (50% Chance) (13% Reduction p/a)

4. The Consequences of 1.5 and 2°C of Warming

4.1. 0.8°C of Warming

Global average temperatures have increased to 0.8°C since pre-industrial times2. Due to the warming of global average temperatures, the climate of the World is changing. In 2006, the Isle of Man Climate Change Scoping Study prepared by Acclimatise3 identified:-

“Flooding, storm surges and wind storms are all likely to increase as a result of climate change though the uncertainty surrounding possible changes in frequency and intensity of these types of extreme weather events remains significant.”

2 https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ 3 https://www.ukcip.org.uk/wp-content/PDFs/Isle_of_Man.pdf

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In the United Kingdom, the Meteorological Office4 has identified that:-

“All of the UK's ten warmest years on record have occurred since 2002. Heatwaves, like that of summer 2018, are now 30 times more likely to happen due to climate change.”

…

“Heavy rainfall is also more likely. Since 1998, the UK has seen seven of the ten wettest years on record. The winter storms in 2015 were at least 40% more likely because of climate change.

The world now faces the risk of a rise in global average temperatures of 1.5°C or even 2°C and the associated implications for our weather conditions, environment and society.

4.2. 1.5 – 2°C of Warming

A rise in global average temperature of 1.5°C and 2°C is identified by the IPCC as resulting in robust differences in our weather and the ecosystems exposed to the changing climate.

Flooding 5

- 1.5°C of Warming: flood risk increased by 100% - 2°C of Warming: flood risk increased by 170%

Risks of Local Species Losses 6

- 1.5°C of Warming: The number of species projected to lose over half of their climatically determined geographic range: o 6% of insects o 8% of plants o 4% of vertebrates - 2°C of Warming: The number of species projected to lose over half of their climatically determined geographic range: o 18% of insects o 16% of plants o 8% of vertebrates

4 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/effects-of-climate-change 5 page 214, IPCC Special Report on 1.5 Degree C of Warming (2018) (www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_Low_Res.pdf) 6 page 179 , IPCC Special Report on 1.5 Degree C of Warming (2018) (www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_Low_Res.pdf)

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Global Average Sea Level Rises 7

- 1.5°C of Warming: 30 – 60 cm by 2100. - 2°C of Warming: 61 – 110 cm by 2100.

4.3. Costs

A further increase to global average temperatures are estimated to have financial implications in terms of adaptation of existing infrastructure and recovery costs. The 2006 Isle of Man Acclimate study commissioned by the Isle of Man Government identified some estimated future costs (at 2005 prices) incurred by weather events in the Isle of Man.

In particular, lower lying regions of the Isle of Man will be at risk of increased flooding events and storm surges, as identified by the topography map of the Isle of Man overleaf8.

7 United Nations Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019) 8 https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/maps/yb/Isle-of-Man/

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5. Assumptions Applied and Indications for Further Research

5.1. In preparing this first carbon budget for the Isle of Man, the following assumptions have been applied:-

5.1.1. Isle of Man Population at the 2016 Census: 83,3149

5.1.2. World Population estimated in 2018 as: 7,500,000,00010

5.1.3. Per Capita Emissions for the Isle of Man: 9.55 tonnes per year11

5.2. The Isle of Man Green Party identifies further research should be conducted to develop this carbon budget to identify:-

5.2.1. Estimates for the Isle of Man for aviation, shipping and territorial emissions for products used but not produced in the Isle of Man (‘offshored emissions’). Estimates for these emissions apportioned to the Isle of Man have not been calculated (or at least released) by the Isle of Man Government.

9 GD No. 2017/004 (https://www.gov.im/media/1355784/2016-isle-of-man-census-report.pdf) 10 Release Number CB18-SFS.91 (https://www.census.gov/newsroom/stories/2018/world-population.html) 11 GD No. 2016/0031 (June 2016) (http://www.tynwald.org.im/business/opqp/sittings/Tynwald%2020142016/2016-GD-0031.pdf)

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