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Home , Alex Hassan, Andrew Kittredge, Brett Gardner, Brock Burke, Butch Huskey, Dan Shaughnessy

The Monday, November 11, 2019

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It’s all about the rotation if Red Sox hope to rebound in 2020

Peter Abraham

First in a series

The rotation wasn’t entirely to blame for the Red Sox failing to make the playoffs last season. The early inconsistency of the bullpen contributed to the team’s slow start and the Sox got less production from several spots in the lineup than was expected.

But ultimately, poor starting pitching is what left the Sox home in October and will be among their biggest challenges to correct next season.

Red Sox starters had a 4.95 earned average — 5.33 if you discount Eduardo Rodriguez’s strong season.

At a cost of $85 million, Nate Eovaldi, , , and were 28-29 with a 4.97 ERA over only 483⅓ . The Sox were 45-46 in games they started.

President of operations , who signed Sale and Eovaldi to lucrative contract extensions before the season, was fired in September. The Sox then demoted pitching Dana LeVangie after the season.

Porcello is a free agent and if he does return to the Sox, it would likely be on a low-cost, short-term deal following the worst season of his career. Porcello had an unsightly 5.52 ERA and allowed 198 hits over 174⅓ innings.

It’s more likely the Red Sox will let Porcello seek redemption elsewhere and fill his spot more creatively. During his tenure with the , new chief baseball officer helped conceive using “openers” instead of conventional starters.

Considering Sox starters had a 5.50 ERA in the first last season, it could make a lot of sense to try that method.

But the primary issue for Bloom, , and new pitching coach will be the health of Eovaldi, Price, and Sale.

Eovaldi has not started more than 21 games since 2015 and it now appears rash that the Sox committed $68 million to a who has averaged 101 innings over his last three seasons.

The righthander was limited to 12 starts in 2019 because of elbow surgery. He had a 6.13 ERA in those games.

The Rays signed Eovaldi while he coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2017 then traded him to the Sox after 10 starts in 2018. So Bloom is familiar with him.

Eovaldi turns 30 in February and is a good candidate to bounce back. The same can’t be said of Sale, who turns 31 in March.

The lefthander has thrown 1,535⅓ innings over the last eight seasons, sixth among all . He also has been on the three times over the last two seasons, missing 12 starts in all.

Sale averaged 95.1 miles per hour with his in 2017. It was down to 93.7 in 2019.

Some pitchers adjust for lost velocity by incorporating other pitches or angles. But Sale is primarily a fastball/ pitcher with an occasional .

That the Red Sox signed him to a five-year, $145 million extension without first seeing him pitch at least half the season was curious if not foolhardy. Sale finished the season on the injured list with elbow inflammation, an issue the Sox claim has abated. Their expectation is Sale will be ready for .

The 34-year-old Price, who throws five pitches, is a better candidate to ease gracefully into the later stages of his career. But he also has become a pitcher who clearly benefits from extra days of rest.

Price had a 6.91 ERA in 10 starts with the usual four days of rest last season. When he had at least one extra day, Price’s ERA fell to 2.77 over 11 starts.

That would be a little easier to accept if he wasn’t making $96 million over the next three seasons.

The wrist injury that caused him to miss most of the final two months has healed.

The Sox believe the extra month of pitching in 2018 contributed to the decline of their rotation a year later. So one benefit from missing the playoffs could be a collective revitalization.

Rodriguez was the one starter the Sox looked forward to last season. He was 19-6 with a 3.81 ERA, posting career bests in wins, starts (34), innings (203⅓ ) and (213).

The lefthander said before the season that his goal was to make every start, something that eluded him prior. Once he did, success followed. Rodriguez could emerge as the team’s ace in 2020.

The Sox lacked depth last season. Swingmen and Hector Velazquez, who Cora repeatedly praised in 2018, were 1-5 with a 6.00 ERA in 15 starts. Johnson, who is out of minor league options, could benefit from going full-time to the bullpen.

The Sox tried to patch holes by trading for Andrew Cashner and signing Jhoulys Chacin off the street in August. The veterans combined to make 11 bad starts.

When the Sox dipped into A, it was for journeymen like and Josh Smith.

In what would be a rarity for the Sox, there is a chance their farm system could provide some help.

Righthander Bryan Mata, who doesn’t turn 21 until May, had a 3.43 ERA over 21 starts last season.

His transition from A Salem (3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHP over 51⅓ innings) to A Portland (5.03 ERA, 1.45 WHP over 52⅔ innings) was rocky. But it’s reasonable to think Mata could present himself as a candidate next season. The tools are there, including a fastball that hits 97.

It’s uncertain where righthander will fit. The Sox shifted him to the bullpen in Triple A last season then he started six games in the with solid results.

Noah Song was 11-1 with a 1.44 ERA for Navy last spring then had a 1.06 ERA in 17 innings for Single A Lowell followed by a selection to Team USA for the Premier 12 tournament.

It’s as yet undetermined whether the Navy will allow Song to pursue his baseball career next season. But if he can, the 22-year-old could be a quick mover. He’s better than the Sox expected when they drafted him.

Righthander Thad Ward, a 2018 draft pick from Fort Myers via Central Florida University, had a 2.18 ERA over 25 starts and 126⅓ innings in Single A. He could start next season in Portland.

Jay Groome, now 21, has pitched only 66 innings [with a 5.59 ERA] since being a first-round pick in 2016. He still has a chance to become the homegrown starter the Sox have long sought. But it won’t be next season.

Projected pitching rotation Primary 2019 starters: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, RHP Rick Porcello, LHP Chris Sale, LHP David Price, RHP Nate Eovaldi.

Projected 2020 starters: Sale, Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Price, TBD.

Major league depth: RHP Hector Velazquez, LHP Brian Johnson, RHP Ryan Weber.

Prospects to watch: RHP Bryan Mata, RHP Tanner Houck, RHP Noah Song, RHP Thad Ward.

Could this be the year makes the Hall of Fame?

Dan Shaughnessy

New England baby boomer sports fans are a romantic lot. In this spirit there are local athletes from the 1960s and 70s who enjoy a lifetime of love owed to accomplishments from 30 or 40 years ago. Not necessarily Hall of Famers, the local legends are routinely showered with affection if they appear at a card show or merely stroll around the corridors of Fenway, Gillette, or the Boston Garden.

These are guys like , Terry O’Reilly, Bill Lee, Steve Grogan, Freddie Lynn . . .

And Dwight Evans.

Dewey. Best right fielder we ever saw. The man who made The Catch of ’s long drive in of the 1975 . The man who got the big hits and provided the big moments in those years when the Red Sox annually almost won it all.

Tiant and Evans get Hall of Fame support from Boston fans, but have gone unappreciated by those with the keys to Cooperstown. Here in Red Sox Nation, we know that Luis was every bit as good, or better than contemporaries and . Those two sailed into Cooperstown, but Luis never got the gold-plated pass needed for induction. El Tiante was bounced from the writer’s ballot, moved to the Veteran’s Committee and subsequently came up short again and again. Crazy. Who else would you want in a “must-win” game?

And now it is Dewey’s turn to wait and wonder. It was announced last week that Evans is one of 10 candidates who will be considered when the Modern Baseball Era Committee convenes in San Diego in December at baseball’s annual Winter Meetings. Evans is on a ballot alongside estimable candidates Steve Garvey, Tommy John, , Thurman Munson, Dale Murphy, , Ted Simmons, Lou Whitaker, and former labor boss Marvin Miller.

“I’m not sure what to think right now, but it’s nice,’’ Evans said when I reached him via phone over the weekend.

Evans played 20 big league seasons, 19 for the Red Sox, hitting 385 homers and winning eight Gold Gloves. During the 1980s, Evans led the majors in extra-base hits and ranked second to in getting on base. He more homers than any players in the 1980s. He has more career hits than Joe DiMaggio and more homers than . Despite all that, he lasted only three years on the BBWAA ballot, failing to get the required five percent of votes cast when he fell off in 1999.

“It was disappointing,’’ he acknowledged. “I wondered why. There were a lot of things going on at that time. There were guys hitting 60, 70 home runs. So 400 home runs was not the criteria anymore. It was 550. But I always thought you should be judged in your era, your generation.’’

No player improves in retirement, but some get surges of consideration after they drop from the writer’s ballot. This happened to Evans last winter when / was voted into the Hall by the Today’s Game Era Committee.

Wait, what? Harold Baines? Nice hitter. Good guy. But a one-dimensional player who was clearly not as good as Dwight Evans. It turned out to be a Richard Daley-esque, back-channel, Cook County bag job orchestrated by Baines’s former White Sox bosses, Jerry Reinsdorf and Tony LaRussa, who were part of the 16-voter committee.

The fallout was swift. Baines was a good player and a swell guy, but not considered Hall-worthy outside of the 312 area code.

Dwight Evans’s phone started ringing. Everybody knows he was better than Baines.

“I was happy for Harold,’’ Evans remembered. “But I had a lot of questions from other people asking, ‘What about you?’ It was nice to hear that after being out of the game for 27, 28 years. It was nice that people were talking about me in that manner.’’

A year later, Evans gets his shot with a new 16-man committee, which will meet and vote on the 10 candidates Dec. 8. Committee members have not been identified and this is intentional. The Hall discourages outside lobbying on this issue.

In most years, a veteran’s committee panel will include a combination of eight or nine Hall of Fame members, four or five baseball executives, and two or three media representatives. Voters can vote for no more than four candidates. A candidate must appear on at least 12 ballots to earn induction.

In order to be elected, Evans will need someone in the room to champion his cause. He would be best served if someone from Boston (John Harrington, , , Jim Rice) is a member of the new 16-person committee.

The wait can be stressful. Lovable Luis Tiant’s had his heart broken a couple of times by this process.

“I wasn’t thinking about it until you called me,’’ Evans said. “It would be great. If certain guys get in, I think I’m right there. There’s a lot of new stats that we didn’t have. Now they have stats on how many runs did you stop from scoring. I wish they had that when I played. I look at my numbers and extra-base hits and home runs and I always thought they were right on the edge and I always thought that my defensive ability would put me through. I really don’t like talking like this to be honest with you. It’s something that speaks for itself. I don’t really think I have to speak to it or speak about it.’’

Fair enough.

Dwight Evans gave us his game at Fenway in right field for 19 summers. We know what we saw.

Red Sox re-sign six minor league free agents

Alex Speier

The Red Sox have reached deals with six of their minor league free agents, including a pitcher who emerged as a big league late-innings contributor for them two years ago and a starter who had one of the best seasons in their system last year.

According to major league sources, the team will bring back righthanded relievers , Domingo Tapia, and Andrew Schwaab, lefthanded starter Daniel McGrath, Jhon Nunez, and infielder Jantzen Witte.

Maddox, now 28, had an impressive big league debut in 2017, forging a 0.52 ERA with 14 strikeouts and two walks in 17⅓ innings and earning a spot on the team’s postseason roster that year. But he missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury that ultimately required rotator cuff surgery toward the end of that season, resulting in Maddox missing all of 2019.

Tapia, a 28-year-old currently pitching in the Dominican Winter League, was signed by the Red Sox as a minor league free agent last offseason and spent the entire 2019 campaign in Triple-A Pawtucket. In 66 innings, he forged a 5.18 ERA with 7.1 strikeouts and 4.4 walks per nine innings.

Schwaab, 26, joined the Red Sox last season after spending four seasons in the Yankees and Tigers systems. In 58⅓ innings split between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket, he had a 3.09 ERA with 10.2 strikeouts and 4.5 walks per nine.

McGrath, 25, opened the 2019 season in the Portland bullpen, but went on a remarkable run — mostly as a starter — for the Sea Dogs in June and July. At one point, he went 48⅓ innings without allowing an earned run, eventually forging a 1.68 ERA in 112⅓ innings with 9.1 strikeouts, 3.6 walks, and 0.4 homers per nine innings. (He also allowed six runs in 10⅓ innings in Triple A.) Hitters posted a .199/.281/.280 line against him.

Nunez, 24, spent all of 2019 — his seventh year in the Red Sox system — with Double-A Portland, posting the best offensive numbers of his career (.280/.333/.412). He also threw out 30 of 72 (42 percent) attempted base stealers.

Witte, 29, has spent seven years in the Sox system including parts of the last four in Triple-A Pawtucket – the level where he played 112 games in 2019. He hit .271/.333/.390 in 2019, spending most of his time on the infield corners but also getting time at both second base and left field.

Why the GM Meetings could be more active this season

Peter Abraham

The General Managers Meetings start Monday in Phoenix. It’s the unofficial start of the hot stove season.

Traditionally, it’s a time for investigating what is possible on the market. But with so many teams in a position to contend, deals could come sooner than what is usually the case.

Executives are wary, if not weary, about the idea of free agency stretching into January and February.

That represents so many prominent free agents — , , , , , Hyn-Jin Ryu, and — makes that likely.

Here’s a look at the needs of all 30 teams as the offseason gets going:

AL East Blue Jays: Now that Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio are in the majors, Toronto can’t waste their talent. The Jays need two reliable starters and some better defensive . With three contending teams in the division, sitting back won’t work for them any more.

Orioles: Don’t expect much. will take another 108 losses as he improves the staff and infrastructure of the organization. This is a long-term project. But Baltimore needs a or two to maintain some degree of competitiveness.

Rays: Tampa Bay won 96 games last season, one off the franchise record. They need subtle improvements, like a better catcher and some righthanded power. Their nature is not to stand pat.

Red Sox: The overall need for new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is to trim the payroll. The on-field needs are a No. 5 starter and a lefthanded-hitting utility player to replace , unless they feel Marco Hernandez can handle it. A backup catcher also could be on the list.

Yankees: couldn’t sign Cole as a draft pick then missed out on him in the trade market. Now Cole is a free agent and the Yankees need rotation help.

AL Central Indians: The door isn’t closing on Cleveland quite yet. They need outfield help with Yasiel Puig going to free agency. Their rotation depth could present a good trade match with the Red Sox.

Royals: New ownership and a new manager in suggest 2020 will be a season in which Kansas City stays in its rebuild. Their rotation was dreadful and the bullpen needs help. If retires, a corner outfielder also will be a priority.

Tigers: Detroit needs everything after losing 114 games and getting outscored by an astonishing 333 runs. As one rival executive said, it feels hopeless there.

Twins: A first-round knockout after 101 wins was a disappointment. But virtually the entire lineup returns. Starting pitching is the issue with , , and all free agents. They started 85 games. The Twins need starters. How about David Price or Chris Sale?

White Sox: needs lineup thump, even if free agent Jose Abreu returns. They were 13th in the league in runs and home runs last season. There’s money to spend in free agency and other teams feel Chicago could leap up and sign a premier player such as Castellanos.

AL West Angels: They didn’t hire 65-year-old to manage more rebuilding. The Angels need to make some splashy moves. Shohei Ohtani is set to return to the rotation after Tommy John surgery. But they’ll be chasing Cole, who grew up a few miles away. Strasburg also fits. It’s all about the rotation.

Astros: Houston is too disciplined to come up with the money it would take to retain Cole, so a starter will be needed. Their lineup and bullpen seems set.

Athletics: Oakland could do little more than tweak its bullpen and be set for 2020. There’s a deep group of starters and the lineup is locked down. Their biggest issue is managing the 40-man roster.

Mariners: The rotation needs patching and forever-rebuilding general manager will look for trades that make sense. Seattle has not played a postseason game since 2001. You’d think there’d be more urgency.

Rangers: A new ballpark and payroll space suggests Texas will be active in free agency. They need pitching, outfielders, and a . Other teams believe they will be after .

NL East Braves: Atlanta is positioned to win the division again. If Donaldson leaves as a free agent, they’ll need a third baseman. They’ve been tied to free agent lefthander , who is from North Carolina

Marlins: They have traded for a lot of young talent but are still sorting out the major league roster. Miami scored only 615 runs last season and will lose (22 homers, 86 RBIs) to free agency. This is one team that would welcome older free agents with some power.

Mets: The bullpen requires a lot of work with Edwin Diaz proving untrustworthy. The Mets also need outfield help. There are so many connections with the Red Sox that a trade between the teams could make sense for both sides.

Nationals: The defending champions want to retain free agents Rendon and Strasburg. GM could address the bullpen now instead of waiting to July. Early indications are that Strasburg is amenable to a deal.

Phillies: will be the fifth manager in eight seasons and the franchise hasn’t had a winning record since 2011. Signing for $330 million doesn’t make much sense unless you get him some help. The Phillies need a better rotation and Zack Wheeler would be a good fit.

NL Central Brewers: Milwaukee needs corner infielders. Moustakas is a free agent and Travis Shaw could be non- tendered rather than be paid $4.7 million through arbitration. The rotation needs a boost. Milwaukee also needs a catcher with choosing free agency and is a hole.

Cardinals: St. Louis will return a solid lineup. Even if Adam Wainwright returns, they’ll need a starter. is a free agent and has said he wants to return. But the Cardinals could upgrade there.

Cubs: Chicago stayed with the same players and will try a new manager in . They primarily need a , but other teams feel is open to shaking up the core group.

Pirates: will arrive at the GM Meetings without a GM or a manager. Their new team president, Travis Williams, comes from an NHL background. The Pirates need rotation help and a new closer with Felipe Vazquez in jail facing sexual assault charges. More than anything else, they need somebody to set the right course.

Reds: Cincinnati has been actively changing its roster since last winter seeking a contender. The Reds have a solid rotation but need a boost offensively. Jackie Bradley Jr., who feels like a better fit in the NL, is a possibility.

NL West Diamondbacks: GM has set Arizona up for long-term success. Some added bullpen depth would make sense along with an upgrade in right field with going back into free agency.

Giants: President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is prioritizing hiring a new manager and adding a GM to his staff. As for the roster, San Francisco will likely need to replace free agent Madison Bumgarner. They also need a corner outfielder.

Dodgers: Los Angeles won 106 games and returns all of its key lineup pieces. Ryu is a free agent, but is comfortable with the Dodgers. They could seek rotation help even if Ryu returns. Beyond that, the bullpen is a need.

Padres: San Diego added and the last two seasons and remained one of the worst teams in the game. GM A.J. Preller fired manager and hired , a player development executive from the Rangers. They need a rotation piece and a new center fielder. A better sense of direction would help, too.

Rockies: Colorado is an unbalanced team, one loaded with good hitters and desperate for pitching. Their payroll issues do not suggest any high-profile free agents coming in. Their best venue could be the trade market.

NATIONAL PRIDE Opportunity for Red Sox prospects

Red Sox prospects C.J. Chatham, , Tanner Houck, and Noah Song are in Japan with Team USA for the second round of the Premier12 tournament.

Dalbec was 4 for 11 with two home runs and six RBIs in the first round. Chatham was 2 for 7. Song pitched two scoreless innings in relief and struck out three while Houck made one start and allowed two earned runs over 4⅓ innings with six strikeouts.

Related: One way or another, Red Sox prospect Noah Song is happy to serve his country

Team USA has games scheduled against South Korea (Monday), Japan (Tuesday), Australia (Wednesday), and Taiwan (Friday).

The guess here is that the Team USA experience will be a launching pad for Dalbec in spring training.

Two spots in the Olympics are up for grabs in the tournament. That excludes Japan, which has always qualified as the host team. Because Olympic berths are based on geography, the US needs only to finish higher than Mexico to qualify.

A few other observations on the Red Sox:

■ Alex Cora traveled to England this weekend to see two Premier League matches, Chelsea-Crystal Palace on Saturday and Liverpool-Manchester City on Sunday.

It’s a bit of a working trip for Cora, who is an admirer of Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp and City manager Pep Guardiola. In different ways, both are known for getting the most out of their rosters and Cora hopes to spend time talking to them. Premier League teams are innovators in sports science and there’s much to be gained for baseball teams given the scheduling demands of both sports.

■ The Bill James Handbook arrived Thursday and was full of thought-provoking revelations. Among them was that was the worst shortstop in the majors last season in terms of defensive runs saved. He graded out at minus-21 under the adjusted formula.

Data is incontrovertible. But as somebody who has watched 85 percent of the major league games Bogaerts has played in person, he’s unquestionably better defensively than he was a few years ago and, at worst, is a reliable shortstop.

Bogaerts was hurt last season by the Sox using eight second basemen for at least one start, none for more than 56. He also had occasional issues, especially in the second half, with getting a little too rambunctious with his range to the left.

On the plus side, Bogaerts hit .374 in close and late situations, second in the American League to of the White Sox (.385).

The Handbook also showed the Rays used a four-man outfield 48 times in 2019. The Red Sox never did that once. Bet that changes under Chaim Bloom. The Sox also were among the 12 teams who didn’t use an .

The Sox had bullpen games, to be certain. But they never used a reliever to open before bringing in a starter.

Also of note: had 96 “long-ball outs” of at least 330 feet. Only Arizona’s Eduardo Escobar, with 121, had more. The Sox led the majors with 767 unproductive outs. Those come when a batter fails to advance a runner on base, excluding the final out of an inning.

Cora made 632 pitching changes, the most in the majors and 97 fewer than the previous season. Cora also issued 22 intentional walks (up from eight in 2018). Of the 22, 14 worked but six led to multiple runs scoring.

Andrew Benintendi had a 1.476 OPS against .

The projections have David Price (10-7, 3.99, 27 starts) and Chris Sale (12-6, 3.12 in 28 starts) bouncing back. But not Nate Eovaldi (6-7, 4.58 in 22 starts).

The projections are not too high on Eduardo Rodriguez (12-10 4.00).

The Handbook is highly recommended and you’ll refer to it for months. You can find it online easily enough or go right to actasports.com.

■ , Eddie Romero, and will join Bloom and Brian O’Halloran at the GM Meetings.

ETC. Pitching coaches change with times

There used to be one model for pitching coaches. They were middle-aged former pitchers who had at least some taste of professional ball and could get along with the manager.

Now? Throw that all out.

The Red Sox named 39-year-old Dave Bush as their pitching coach this offseason. He indeed played parts of nine seasons in the majors but then he veered off to coach at Bridgton Academy in Maine and work with the Chinese and South African national teams before joining the Sox as a pitching development analyst, a post that incorporated biomechanics and analytics as teaching and development tools.

The Yankees dropped after nine seasons and hired 33-year-old as their pitching coach. He has no professional playing experience but got into baseball after playing at Holy Cross then becoming a pitching coach at Lincoln-Sudbury High and the Cape Cod League. He also worked with Eric Cressey, a player development and conditioning guru.

Blake joined the Indians in 2016 assistant director of player development with a focus on pitching. The Yankees will be his first job that requires a uniform. The Yankees also considered four college pitching coaches for the job along with , one of their broadcasters. Teams recognize that for hitting and pitching coaches, the primary skill is the ability to translate all the information available into something that can help a particular player. Not to relate back to his experiences in the game.

Extra bases The Twins promoted Milton native Alex Hassan to director of player development. Hassan, 31, was drafted by the Red Sox in 2009 and made it to the majors for three games in 2014 before bouncing around to five other organizations. He retired from playing in 2016 and joined the Twins the following season . . . Twenty-two of the 30 teams in the majors have been to the postseason over the last five seasons. The outliers are the Angels, Mariners, Marlins, Padres, Phillies, Reds, Tigers, and White Sox . . . Happy birthday to , who is 65. The Steamer was 15-2 with a 2.60 ERA over 52 games and 141⅔ innings as a 23-year-old for the Red Sox in 1978. He started three of those games and was 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and went 21 innings. Then in 1982 he pitched a team record 168⅓ innings in relief. If a manager tried that now with a reliever he’d get arrested. Birthday wishes as well to Butch Huskey (48) and Larry Parrish (66). Parrish hit 256 career home runs, 17 against Hall of Famers, including four off .

Chaim Bloom’s time has come at GM Meetings

Peter Abraham

Only once in the 15 years Chaim Bloom worked for the Tampa Bay Rays did the team’s payroll top $100 million. That was in 2017 and the Rays finished 80-82.

Tampa Bay promptly started cutting again and returned to the playoffs last season after winning 96 games.

Now, as chief baseball officer of the Red Sox, Bloom is charged with pruning the payroll below $208 million to reset the luxury-tax penalties the team has paid the last two seasons.

It’s the kind of problem most teams would roll their eyes about, cutting the highest payroll in the game to the second or third highest. But for the Red Sox, it’s a signal that significant change is coming.

The check is due.

“Understanding that some people could see that as a concern, I look at it as taking a longer view,” Bloom said.

The scope of that perspective will start to take shape Monday when the General Managers Meetings get started in Scottsdale, Ariz.

The meetings will come only 16 days after Bloom joined the Red Sox. He’s used that time to get better acquainted with his new co-workers, call many of the players to introduce himself — yes, Mookie Betts was one of them — and go back and forth to Florida to visit his wife and two sons.

This week will present an opportunity to get a better sense of what the Sox could accomplish in the trade market and talk face to face with agents.

With Tampa Bay, Bloom answered to general manager . Now he’s the man in charge. Red Sox ownership spoke at length about collaboration when Bloom was hired, but ultimately he’s now responsible for baseball operations and will get the credit or blame for how the Sox play.

“It’s still the same game,” Bloom said. “It’s different in that it’s a new organization and there are a lot of new experiences here. But you’re still trying to accomplish the same thing.”

Bloom sees filling needs on the roster while cutting the payroll as running on the same tracks. One goal does not prohibit the other.

“With any situation, you’re trying to check as many boxes as you typically can. There’s a trade off with every move you might consider at this stage of the offseason,” he said. “You have to look at the big picture and assess all the options we are in a position to consider.”

The Sox drifted away from that kind of decision-making in recent years.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski waited less than three weeks after the World Series last year to sign for $6.25 million. Then, two weeks later, the Sox agreed with Nate Eovaldi on a four-year, $68 million extension.

Pearce got injured in spring training and hit .180 over 29 games last season. Eovaldi was 2-1 with a 5.99 ERA and made only 12 starts.

The Sox then signed Chris Sale to a five-year, $145 million extension a few days before the season started. Sale, who missed five starts with a shoulder injury in 2018, missed seven starts with an elbow injury last season. His status for next season is largely uncertain.

Paying for past performance is unavoidable in baseball’s economic structure, but the Sox were a little too eager at times. Bloom’s goal is to make better decisions by improving how the Sox make decisions in the first place.

“I’m starting at the ground floor and you want to look at everything, all the possibilities,” he said. “Conversations with teams are starting to pick up and you want to be active on as many fronts as possible.”

Related: What Chaim Bloom’s track record tells us about how the Red Sox will use trades

The Sox have only a few roster needs, primarily a No. 5 starter, a backup catcher, and bullpen depth. They also need to determine how best fits on the roster, as a , , or utility player.

However it works out, Bloom said the expectation is to contend for a championship.

“There no sense in limiting what any team can accomplish, especially given the history of this organization,” he said. “You never want to concede anything. There’s a ton of talent here.”

As for Betts, Bloom said he enjoyed their initial conversation and wants to build on that. He’s not one to stay distant from the players.

“I believe in relationships and being as transparent as possible,” Bloom said. “That’s part of our job. I’d love to have a strong relationship with him and every other player. You want that communication.”

Bloom said he welcomed J.D. Martinez returning for next season, even at a cost of $23.75 million. To what degree that could lead to other moves isn’t yet certain.

“We have a lot to talk about,” Bloom said. “This process is just getting started.”

Face it, Red Sox fans, you are overrating Mookie Betts a bit

Dan Shaughnessy

All Red Sox fans love Mookie Betts. And what is not to love? He was MVP in 2018, hitting .346 with 32 homers. He has led the American League in runs each of the last two seasons. He is a Gold Glove right fielder, playing half his games in the toughest right field in baseball. He is an electric player and has never done anything to tarnish himself or the uniform.

But he is also a free agent at the end of next season, shows no signs of re-upping with the Red Sox, and, quite frankly, is a tad overrated around here.

I have heard from some Sox fans who say they will abandon Red Sox Nation if the team trades Mookie Betts. I have read that the Sox might have to trade Xander Bogaerts in order to keep Mookie Betts. There are “Keep Mookie” hoodies for sale on the web and folks who believe that Mookie is the best player to wear a Red Sox uniform since .

Calm down. Mookie is good, but he’s not that good. He’s not good. He’s certainly not good.

Thus far in his big league career, Betts is good. Nothing more.

Betts has played 794 regular-season games for the Red Sox. Like Lynn, he has won an MVP and four Gold Gloves. In his first 794 games with the Sox, Lynn hit .309 with 122 homers and 505 RBIs. Betts is at .301 with 139 homers and 470 RBIs (leading off much of the time). Lynn had a better OPS (.908 to .893). Lynn was an All-Star in each of his six Sox seasons. Mookie is 4 for 5.

Lynn was traded to the Angels before the start of the 1981 season when it was learned he was going to be a free agent. Mookie might be traded between now and next summer’s deadline if the Sox conclude they are not going to be able to sign him.

Nomar Garciaparra was better than Mookie in his first 794 games with the Red Sox. Nomar hit 11 more homers (150 to 139), batted 24 points higher (.325), and knocked in 107 more runs (577) while also leading off at times. Garciaparra won two batting titles and finished second in MVP voting in 1998.

Defensively, Mookie no doubt is better than Nomar, but shortstop is a much more important defensive position than right field. It’s harder, involving many more balls in play.

Through 794 games Player Avg. HR RBIs Runs OBP SLG OPS .325 150 577 583 .373 .560 .932 Fred Lynn .309 122 505 505 .384 .524 .908 Mookie Betts .301 139 470 613 .374 .519 .893 SOURCE: Statistical research courtesy of Bill Chuck

Being in the conversation with Lynn and Garciaparra does not diminish Betts’s accomplishments. But it gives us a little perspective. Lynn and Garciaparra were both traded at roughly the same stage of their career that Betts will be at next season, and neither continued on a Hall of Fame pace after leaving Boston. Their careers were marred by injuries. There is no indication that Betts is headed for trouble in this area.

But no baseball player is a sure thing after five or six seasons, and there is plenty of reason for the Sox to pause if Mookie wants anything in the area of $300 million over 10 seasons. Trout got $430 million for a 12-year deal, which averages out to $35.8 million per season. Bryce Harper signed with the Phillies for $330 million over 13 seasons ($25.4 million per).

Mookie and his agent are going to be reminded 330 million times that the went on to win the World Series after they let Harper play out his contract.

Few players make good on these kinds of deals. One was , who was great for 7½ seasons of an eight-year, $160 million contract he signed with the Red Sox way back in 2001.

The Red Sox at this hour have more math problems than young Dan Shaughnessy did in high school calculus back in the day. They are trying to remain competitive while cutting $35 million from their payroll and at the same time holding on to Betts and J.D. Martinez, who just opted in for $23.75 million in 2020. The Sox owe the Sore Arm Trio (Chris Sale, David Price, ) almost $80 million in 2020.

They are going to have to trade players, but it would be a colossal blunder to deal Bogaerts as a way to keep Betts. Bogaerts is newly signed to a team-friendly deal (six years, $132 million), and is coming off a .309-33-117 season. He is also a 6-foot-1-inch, 210-pound, 27-year-old shortstop with two championship rings. You do not solve your Betts dilemma by trading Xander Bogaerts.

In my view, the best play is for the Sox to keep Betts in 2020, try to get another great year out of him, while still trying to sign him (unlikely) and hoping he will listen to reason. If he goes, you say, “Thank you very much,” and you take the draft pick. You do not take dimes on the dollar now, or in midsummer. No one is going to give you commensurate value for one season (or two months) of Mookie Betts.

The Sox will survive. This is not anything like the sale of Babe Ruth. Betts is a fine player, but he is not a big guy (5-9, 180), he is not going to get any faster, and he has little power to the right side. Take a look at Betts’s spray chart (above left):

He almost never hits a homer to right (why would anyone pitch him inside at Fenway?). Twenty of his 139 career homers are against the Orioles. He has never put together back-to-back .300 seasons. His postseason sample is large, and poor (.227, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, with 17 strikeouts in 88 at-bats over 21 games).

Remember what we thought Andrew McCutchen was going to be? What if that’s all Mookie Betts ever turns out to be? If I could give a young player $350 million over the next 10 years, I’d lock up Washington’s .

Here’s hoping the Sox sign Betts. But it’s not a disaster if they trade him. Or if he plays out his contract. As so often happens here in New England, Mookie Betts is a tad overrated.

* The

Priority No. 1: Keep Mookie Betts with the Red Sox for life

Tom Keegan

The Red Sox spent their way into their current luxury tax dilemma by recklessly dumping way too much money into aging arms at risk of injury. It backfired all the way to an anemic 84-78 title defense, so now the way out of the mess is to trade your Gold Glove/Silver Slugger right fielder who led the big leagues with 135 runs?

Dealing Mookie Betts is a crazy idea, especially considering that no trade partner will part with anything close to equal value knowing that Betts has one year left before opening himself up to a bidding war sure to make him among the top five highest-paid players in baseball.

Any trade the Red Sox made now would make them appreciably worse in 2020 and isn’t likely to make much of a difference beyond that. Nobody will part with an elite package of prospects for a player they lose control of after one year.

Peel the layers of the onion and it boils down to this: The Red Sox hired Chaim Bloom because he worked in an organization that had a knack for developing young pitching, which enabled the Rays to compete with heavyweights despite carrying a bantamweight payroll.

So trust that Bloom can figure out how to carry that Rays magic north — otherwise, why hire him in the first place? — and build the team around the three exceptional every day players who still have far more years ahead of them than behind them.

Spot any organization Betts, third baseman Rafael Devers and shortstop Xander Bogaerts, pay each what the market bears, and watch that organization thrive unless bad decisions are made in assembling the pitching staff.

Do whatever it takes to keep that strong-armed speed/power trio together, even if that means direct depositing $300 million spread out over 10 years in Mookie’s bank account.

Guaranteeing that many years for any athlete in any sport is a risk, but it’s not as risky to do so with an outfielder as it is guaranteeing half that many years to an aging pitcher.

Sign Mookie to a 10-year contract tomorrow and he’ll be 36 on the final day of the final regular season of the deal.

The great , who spent his entire Hall of Fame career with the Pirates, was to his era what Betts is to his, in a two-way discussion as to the best right fielder in the game. was Clemente’s competition, is Betts’. Bellinger and Betts need to do it for much longer to lay claim to being the two best at their position, let alone to be compared to those two baseball giants, but they’re on the right path.

Clemente hit for a higher average, Betts draws more walks, has more power. At age 36, Clemente hit .347, ranked fifth in the MVP balloting, hit .414 in the and hit a fourth-inning off Orioles left-hander in Game 7, locking up World Series MVP honors.

That rightly cemented Clemente’s reputation as a great clutch player and ensured that nobody remembered his first home run came in his 84th postseason .

Mookie’s hitting .227 with one home run in 88 postseason at bats, which suggests he’s due, the same way Barry Bonds was due when he had just one home run in 97 at bats and batted .196 in his first five postseasons. In his final four postseasons, Bonds belted eight homers in 88 at bats and batted .333 in 54 at bats.

That’s not to say Betts is Bonds, either before or after steroids, it’s just to illustrate that postseason statistics have a way of evening out in the long run.

As for Betts making it clear he won’t give the Red Sox a discount, that’s to be expected from such a competitive athlete. Why should we expect athletes to shut off their compete faucets once they sit at the negotiating table?

The fact that he hasn’t said anything that makes people believe he wants to spend his entire career in Boston could mean he doesn’t want to or it could just mean he’s a smart negotiator. The Red Sox need to find out by staying in it with him until the final pitch.

Guaranteeing an athlete 10 years of salary certainly comes with risks, but in the case of Betts, the risk of watching him stay healthy as a perennial All-Star who develops into a postseason monster as well.

Red Sox at GM Meetings: Trading Mookie Betts should be priority

Jason Mastrodonato

With the MLB general managers meetings starting Monday in Arizona, the Red Sox’ offseason to-do list must first answer one question: How is Mookie Betts most valuable to their organization?

It’s a big one, so let’s break it down into three smaller questions.

First, how realistic is it that the Red Sox, with $430 million tied up in an injury-prone starting pitching trio, will compete with the Yankees, a team that won 19 more games than they did last year and should be adding (while the Sox are subtracting) this offseason?

Second, should Betts be evaluated for the very good player he’s been in five of his six MLB seasons, or for the great player he was in one season (2018)?

And third, what’s his value on the trade market and how will it change before July 31?

Let’s start with the first one, because the notion that the Sox can compete with the Yankees is a difficult one to buy into.

This is a team that needs to rely heavily on Chris Sale, whose elbow must bounce back from a platelet-rich plasma injection and avoid Tommy John surgery, all while his troublesome shoulder rebounds and he learns how to pitch with lower velocity.

Maybe David Price’s wrist/carpal tunnel issues are behind him and he can be a reliable No. 2 starter again (a big maybe).

Maybe Nathan Eovaldi will finally stay healthy for a full year (a bigger maybe).

There’s a lot of maybe’s. The Sox also need a fifth starter and, arguably, a sixth starter given the recent injury issues of the three starters just mentioned.

They need a second baseman, a first baseman and bullpen help.

And they need to add all those things while shaving $30 million off the books.

Can the Sox compete with the Yankees in this climate? That would appear to be a no, but we’ll leave some wiggle room there in case Alex Cora has another magical year and a dozen things go perfectly for this team to make a run.

Question two: Just how good is Betts?

There’s something concerning about a guy getting 92 more plate appearances in 2019, but hitting seven fewer doubles and three fewer home runs during a season that set the MLB record for home runs and ranked 13th all-time in doubles.

Put it this way: From 2018 to 2019, home runs in MLB went up 21 percent and Betts’ plate appearances went up 15 percent, but Betts’ home runs dropped 9 percent.

Batting average in MLB went up 2 percent, but Betts’ dropped 15 percent.

Doubles went up 3 percent; Betts’ dropped 15 percent.

OPS went up 4 percent; Betts’ dropped 15 percent.

By most metrics, Betts was about 15 percent worse in 2019 than he was in 2018, while the rest of MLB saw overall scoring go up 9 percent.

That’s pretty drastic to think about. And worse considering that Betts didn’t have a bad season. He arguably had his second-best season.

Overall, we have six big league seasons to look at, and five of them included an OPS-plus (adjusted for league average and ballpark) between 108 and 135, but one of those seasons (2018) included an OPS-plus of 186. Are we to believe the consistently very-good player over five seasons? Or the other-worldly player in 2018?

There’s the added component that Betts is listed at 5-foot-9, 180 pounds (not much bigger than ), and there’s believed to be extra risk related to longevity for smaller players.

This matters because the Red Sox have to decide not only if Betts can carry the Sox in 2020, but also if they should offer him $300 million or more to stay in Boston for the duration of his career.

Finally, question three: what’s his trade value, now and in July?

New chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is in the unique position that he doesn’t have any emotional attachment to the player, something that can’t be said for any of the other high-ranking front office members, all of whom were part of the process when Betts was a fifth-round draft pick in 2011 and watched the undersized infielder develop into an MVP.

The most recent example that’s familiar to this one is that of the Orioles with Manny Machado two years ago. They held him in the offseason, waited until July to trade him and got an OK package from the Dodgers: outfielder Yusniel Diaz was ranked the No. 31 prospect by Baseball Prospectus at the time, and the other four players included were lottery-ticket types.

At the trade deadline in 2016, the Yankees scored big by getting infielder from the Cubs in exchange for lefty , another star player with an expiring contract.

That’s why this week is so important. The Sox must establish Betts’ trade value early, pull the trigger if it’s a home run (or even a triple), or move on and start dangling guys like Jackie Bradley Jr., J.D. Martinez, Price or Eovaldi to see if there’s any value there.

It’s hard to imagine there’s much.

Remember, Betts isn’t taking a hometown discount to stay in Boston. In a vacuum, the Red Sox would need to be the highest bidder, whether or not they keep him all year in 2020, to secure his services next offseason.

If they really want to find some new young talent, trading Betts appears to be the most logical, albeit painful decision to make.

* MassLive.com

Boston Red Sox GM Meetings preview: Chaim Bloom era begins as busy offseason gets underway in Scottsdale

Chris Cotillo

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- The hot stove might finally start burning this week. The annual general managers meetings, which signal the unofficial start of the baseball offseason, begin Monday in Arizona.

For the Red Sox, the meetings represent the first significant milestone in the Chaim Bloom era. Just two weeks after being introduced as Boston’s new chief baseball officer, Bloom will begin attacking his winter agenda by meeting with rival executives, player agents and members of his staff in Arizona.

The GM meetings won’t bring nearly as many actual moves as the winter meetings next month, but it’s still an important event on the baseball calendar. Here’s a primer on what to expect this week:

WHAT: MLB GM Meetings

WHEN: Mon. November 11 - Thu. November 14

WHERE: Omni Scottsdale Resort & Spa at Montelucia in Scottsdale, Arizona

STORIES TO WATCH: What’s the plan for Mookie Betts? It’s clearly possible Betts may be available in trade talks this winter, especially with J.D. Martinez opting to return instead of hitting free agency. The rest of the league, while meeting with Bloom and his lieutenants, will be able to get a true feel of how the Sox are approaching Betts’ future. Bloom will also likely have a face-to-face meeting with Betts’ representatives and begin the process of discussing an extension with Betts a year removed from free agency.

Who else might be available? For the Red Sox to accomplish their goal of getting under the $208 million competitive balance tax threshold, salary will need to be moved. Bloom will get a sense of which of his players -- Jackie Bradley Jr? Nathan Eovaldi? David Price? -- are drawing interest and lay the groundwork for potential trades. Bloom’s creativity is key here. If the Sox want to keep Betts, they’ll have to look to move a large contract or two.

Which free agents could Bloom be eyeing? The focus of the winter will be on how the Sox are going to subtract from their roster, but they’ll need to make some additions if they want to contend next year. Clear areas of need include the bullpen, a backup catcher, second base and the back of the rotation. Boston will get a sense of the asking prices for free agents and trade targets in Scottsdale.

Could the Red Sox make an early move? The Rays -- Bloom’s former team -- showed a willingness to strike early in the offseason, making a series of November trades over the last three years. Tampa Bay even made a significant trade during the GM meetings last year, acquiring catcher from the Mariners. Bloom’s lack of familiarity with the Sox may decrease the chances of Boston actually doing something this week, but he’s clearly not afraid to be aggressive.

Under the leadership of Bloom and general manager Erik Neander, the Rays frequently traded with the Mariners and Dodgers (who are run by former Rays boss ). Add in the Rays themselves and the Sox have three ready-made trade partners who could be looking to do something quickly. Anything done this week would be minor; don’t expect a Betts trade or anything like it.

Are any front office executives leaving the organization? At Bloom’s introductory press conference, Sox principal owner John Henry said one of Bloom’s top lieutenants -- likely assistant GM Eddie Romero -- was interviewing for a position with another club. Former Sox GM appears to be a lead candidate to take over the Pirates and could potentially take a former coworker with him to Pittsburgh.

What has Bloom learned in his two weeks of familiarizing himself with the organization? At his press conference, Bloom refused to discuss any specifics pertaining to the Red Sox, citing his lack of familiarity with the ins and outs of the organization. He has now had two full weeks to get familiar and has been in constant communication with other decision-makers in the organization, so it stands to reason we’ll get a sense of how he feels about certain things. Bloom will meet with the media daily during the meetings.

John Henry, Boston Red Sox owner: ‘I don’t think of it as a business. This is not the business I would choose to go into'

Christopher Smith

BOSTON — The Boston Red Sox led in payroll both in 2018 and 2019, spending approximately $480 million combined.

Add another $23.8 million in tax penalties for exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold both years, and the organization topped a half billion dollars in spending.

Outspending the other 29 clubs resulted in a franchise record 108-win season and World Series championship in 2018, then an 84-win, third-place AL East finish in 2019.

The Red Sox now plan to slash their payroll below the $208 million Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2020 to reset their tax penalties. Taxes increase when a team exceeds the threshold a second and third consecutive year.

Boston’s 2020 payroll already is at an estimated $222.22 million. Why would a big-market team want to subtract? Why not just spend?

“We’re going to spend over $200 million (in 2020),” principal owner John Henry told MassLive.com on Oct. 28, the day the Red Sox introduced new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom at . “A team spending $200 million is generally competitive. I think we’ll be competitive. I know it’s a little bit lower than we spent last year. It’s just the way it works in baseball.”

It is the way it works in baseball, like it or not. Call it a self-imposed salary cap or call it whatever you want. The 2017-2021 Collective Bargaining Agreement provides significant financial incentive to stay under the tax threshold. Teams also avoid Rule 4 Draft penalties.

Henry, chairman and team president Sam Kennedy have stressed staying under the $208 million CBT in 2020 isn’t a mandate, but it is a goal.

Slashing payroll to reset tax penalties is a common business practice among major market teams. The Yankees and Dodgers — who have enjoyed greater yearly revenues than the Red Sox — both slashed payroll to stay under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2018.

Multiple financial incentives exist when big-market clubs stay below the CBT. It’s not only about avoiding tax penalties. Boston would receive its full revenue sharing market disqualification refund in 2020. Its refund would increase because it would include the ’ forfeited proceeds. The 2020 season marks the first year the Athletics will be disqualified fully from receiving revenue sharing.

Revenue sharing payor clubs such as the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers will share the A’s proceeds.

Sam Kennedy Slashing payroll under $208M means greater revenue sharing refund, including A’s forfeited proceeds

The Red Sox want to keep their payroll under the $208 million Competitive Balance Threshold in 2020 but it's only a goal but not a mandate.

Baseball is a business. It’s about both winning and maximizing revenue.

“I don’t think of it as a business," Henry said. “This is not the business I would choose to go into if you call it a business. But it’s a competitive challenge. And we’re doing everything we can every year to maximize our resources. Other than the Yankees, we’re probably second among the 30 teams in spending in the last decade; maybe over the last two decades. For me, it’s about competitive advantage. You need to manage your resources properly."

Would the Red Sox be doing everything possible to win a World Series in 2020 if they slashed their payroll under $208 million? That’s an important question, especially if Boston trades 2018 American League MVP Mookie Betts this offseason.

Betts is eligible for free agency after the 2020 season. The Red Sox still need to add a fifth starter, reliever and first baseman. Bloom, therefore, must dump approximately $25-30 million in salaries to get under the CBT and acquire/sign the players still needed to fill out the roster.

Betts is set to earn approximately $27-$30 million in salary arbitration for 2020.

The Red Sox must weigh the importance of “managing resources properly,” maximizing revenue and winning baseball games in 2020 (and beyond) as they approach this offseason and Betts’ pending free agency.

Trading Betts certainly is a possibility. Werner said on Sept. 27 about Betts’ situation, “Obviously there will be a point where hopefully we can make a deal. Or we’ll decide at that point what is Plan B or Plan C?”

Henry also pointed to the importance of staying under the threshold in certain years because of the MLB Draft.

Staying under in 2020 also would allow the Red Sox to avoid more severe draft pick penalties in the 2021 MLB June Draft if they sign a qualified free agent — potentially a replacement for Betts — during the 2020-21 offseason. An MLB team that stays under the CBT also receives a higher compensation draft pick if one of its own qualified free agents signs with another club.

“Teams reset (their tax penalties), right?” Henry said. “This is the way it’s been for a while. You have to reset every once in a while. We don’t really have a choice.”

Henry added, “Every team, even the Yankees, have constraints. And it’s probably not possible for us to continue to outspend the Yankees every year. But I don’t think that’s what the fans are looking for. I think what the fans are looking for is us to win. And you win with us a strong organization from top to bottom. Having the brightest people.”

‘Payroll’s not the be-all and end-all’ Forbes has the Red Sox as MLB’s third most valued franchise at $3.2 billion, behind only the Yankees ($4.6 billion) and Dodgers ($3.3 billion).

The Yankees netted an estimated revenue of $668 million in 2018, including $284 million in gates receipts, according to Forbes’ April 2019 estimations. Forbes estimated the Dodgers with a $549 million revenue and $195 million in gate receipts. It had the Red Sox’s revenue at an estimated $516 million, including $221 million in gate receipts.

The Red Sox and Washington Nationals were the lone two teams to exceed the then-$197 million threshold in 2018. Nationals ownership set a goal entering 2019 to stay below the CBT, which increased to $206 million this past season. The Red Sox, meanwhile, previously reset their tax penalties in 2017 (and as mentioned above, they would like to reset again in 2020). The CBT increases to $208 million in 2020.

“Payroll’s not the be-all and end-all,” Henry said. “That said, we have nothing to hang our heads over. We’re going to outspend probably 25 or 26 teams again next year.”

Henry pointed out that the Tampa Bay Rays — who finished ahead of Boston in the AL East standings in 2019 despite spending approximately $177 million less — have averaged only two fewer wins per season than the Red Sox the past 12 years. Tampa has averaged 86.8 wins compared to Boston’s 88.5 wins per season since the beginning of 2008. But Boston has won two World Series while Tampa hasn’t won any. Payroll advantages certainly can help push a team over the top for a championship.

Los Angeles slashed payroll $96 million from 2015 to 2018. The Dodgers set an MLB record with a $291 million payroll in 2015 after previously setting the record in 2014 ($257.283M), according to the

Their payroll dropped to $195 million by 2018 — and they have won more games spending less. The Dodgers have averaged 100.7 wins the past three seasons (2017-19) while making two World Series appearances. They averaged 92.3 wins in the previous three years (2014-16) and made it beyond the Division Series only once.

The Yankees led Major League Baseball in payroll from 1998-2013. But under the leadership of George Steinbrenner’s son Hal Steinbrenner, New York has taken a different direction since 2013.

“I’m a finance geek,” Hal Steinbrenner said in 2012, per CBS New York. “I just feel that if you do well on the player development side, and you have a good farm system, you don’t need a $220 million payroll. You don’t. You can field every bit as good a team with young talent.”

The Yankees’ 2018 payroll came in at $192.98 million — $4.02 million below the then-$197 million CBT.

A yearly luxury tax penalty can be compared simply to an extra player’s arbitration salary. But the penalties certainly add up. The Yankees incurred $341.1 million in tax penalties from 2003-17 and the Dodgers received a $149.6 million tax bill from 2013-17, per the Associated Press.

Spending down, wins up The Yankees and other big-market teams certainly are profiting greatly because of lower payrolls, especially thanks to the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Forbes outlined how the 30 team payrolls in 2018 showed its second highest decline since 2004.

Captainsblog.info provided a detailed chart that shows the Yankees’ revenue increase and payroll decrease this decade. William Juliano, who authors the blog, wrote, “The team now sits near the bottom of the league in terms of revenue spent on players. The numbers don’t lie. And, if you’re not a finance geek, forget about the math. The ring on ’s finger and the pinstripes that aren’t on his back tell the same story.”

Fangraphs.com’s Craig Edwards explained the revenue sharing plan in the 2017-21 Collective Bargaining Agreement is more beneficial to big-market teams than revenue sharing in the previous CBA because "it takes less money away from the richest teams by eliminating the supplemental pool.”

As mentioned above, big-market teams receive a larger refund in revenue sharing when they stay below the CBT.

This business model of spending less also has resulted in wins.

Sure, the Yankees have failed to win a World Series championship since 2009, but they posted 103 wins in 2019 after again taking a conservative approach in free agency last offseason.

Steinbrenner received criticism last winter when the Yankees chose not to pursue star Manny Machado. But signing DJ Lemahieu for $276 million less proved to be the right move ultimately.

Lemahieu finished with a .893 OPS in 145 games. Machado posted a .796 OPS in 156 games with the Padres who won 33 fewer games than New York.

The Yankees likely will pursue top starting pitching free agent Gerrit Cole this offseason. It’ll be a fascinating storyline to watch.

Henry’s Red Sox best team of the CBT Era The Red Sox have exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 10 of 17 seasons since MLB implemented a CBT.in 2003.

Boston incurred a luxury tax penalty in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019.

Three of the Red Sox’s four World Series titles, therefore, came in years they exceeded the threshold. But only five championship teams have paid the tax: (2004, 2007, 2018 Red Sox, 2009 Yankees, 2016 Cubs), per the Associated Press.

Should fans and media criticize the Red Sox for wanting to stay below the $208 million CBT in 2020? After all, the Red Sox have won more World Series than any other team during CBT era. What they have done since 2003 obviously has worked.

But were the Red Sox doing everything possible to win a World Series in 2017 when they failed to replace retired at DH? The Red Sox stayed under the CBT, refused to pursue then-free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion and scored 93 fewer runs in 2017 than they did in 2016. Boston’s OPS also dropped 74 points.

Big-market teams likely will continue to place their own constraints on spending even if the next Collective Bargaining Agreement is more friendly to MLB free agents. After all, the advanced metrics show pre- arbitration and arbitration players are more valuable than players who are eligible for free agency after six seasons of control.

“Twenty years ago, roughly I think 45 percent of wins above replacement (WAR) were due to players that were beyond six years of service,” Henry explained at last offseason’s Winter Weekend. “And that number now is 25 percent. So I think clubs, including the Red Sox, have been slow to sort of adjust. I think the price of a win above replacement, which is what a lot of clubs look at. Some clubs, including us, look at much more than that. But if you just look at that as one thing that a number of clubs look at, I remember five years ago I think that number was something like $5 or $6 million. Maybe as much as $7 million per win. Now it’s $10 million per win.

“We have a lot more production coming from younger players, for whatever reason.” Henry added. “So I think that has negatively impacted free agency."

The 2020 payroll and the Mookie Betts dilemma Seven guaranteed contracts to David Price, Chris Sale, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi, Dustin Pedroia and Christian Vazquez count for a total of $135.62 million toward the Red Sox’s 2020 Competitive Balance Tax.

The Red Sox’s 10 arbitration-eligible players — Jackie Bradley Jr., Sandy Leon, Mookie Betts, , Eduardo Rodriguez, , , , Marco Hernandez and Josh Osich — will combine to count for approximately $65.6 million toward the CBT.

That brings the 2020 payroll to approximately $201.22 million. Add another $6 million for pre-arbitration salaries and $15 million for medical costs, health benefits, spring training allowances, moving and traveling expenses, etc. That’s all included in the CBT, and it brings the early payroll projection to approximately $222.22 million.

The Red Sox will face criticism if they trade Betts, a franchise, generational talent, and stay below the $208 million threshold in 2020. Rightfully so. It wouldn’t be in the best interest of winning in 2020.

But the decision with Betts extends far beyond the 2020 CBT. The Red Sox first must determine whether Betts is worth the contract he thinks he’s worth. If not, they must determine whether they want to do everything possible to win in 2020 (which means keeping Betts for one more year) or trade him with a more longterm approach in mind.

Longterm contracts often don’t work out. Betts likely will ask for a contract between Bryce Harper’s 13 years, $330 million and Mike Trout’s 12 years, $430 million.

“There’s a strategic argument as you look out for the next couple of years that getting under the CBT could help you because of the financial penalties but also the baseball penalties. Where you pick in the draft, and some other penalties that hurt you if you stay over one year, two years, three years in a row," president Sam Kennedy said Sept. 30. “But there may be strategic reasons this offseason to be over that we might not be aware of yet.”

Why the Boston Red Sox will be much busier making moves under Chaim Bloom (MLB Notebook)

Chris Cotillo

Remember last winter, when the Red Sox went months at a time without making a single move?

Don’t count on a repeat performance.

While former president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski tended to make only a few transactions every winter, the Rays -- led by Erik Neander and new Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom -- were always one of the busiest teams in baseball. The wheeling and dealing never stopped for Tampa Bay, with trades and signings being made from early November to late March.

The numbers speak for themselves. Since Neander and Bloom took over the Rays in Nov. 2016, they’ve had much busier offseasons than the Red Sox in every transactional category.

Counting total trades, free agent signings, minor league signings (with spring training invites), waiver claims and transactions, the Rays made 69 transactions in the last three winters. The Red Sox made just 35.

Tampa Bay made a staggering 22 trades in those three periods while Boston made just five. The Rays focused on making many more depth additions, signing 33 non-roster free agents in contrast to the Sox signing 19.

The moves Bloom and Neander made ranged from small waiver claims to major trades (like to the Giants, Jake Odorizzi to the Twins and others). It’s clear the duo was constantly focused on churning the Rays’ roster, looking for creative ways to do so and viewing the normal offseason calendar as nothing more than a suggestion that other teams might follow.

In his 10 days running the Red Sox, Bloom as already made the same number of external additions to the 40-man roster (one) as Dombrowski did last winter. The Sox claimed lefty Josh Osich off waivers from the White Sox last week; the only player brought in from outside the organization that was on the 40-man roster by Opening Day was reliever Colten Brewer.

With the Rays, Bloom and Neander showed a willingness to act very early, swinging a series of significant mid-November deals. In 2016, Tampa Bay sent and to the Mariners for a three-player package headlined by righty . A year later, they sent closer Brad Boxberger to the Diamondbacks for a pitching prospect. Just last year, the Rays kicked off trading season by acquiring catcher Mike Zunino from Seattle in a rare trade at the GM Meetings.

Bloom won’t wait to upgrade the Sox’ roster, and he’ll likely never rest in his attempts to keep tweaking things. So stay tuned, Sox fans. The wheels could start turning any minute.

***

Bloom impresses Kennedy by contacting Sox alumni

When Red Sox president and CEO Sam Kennedy hired Bloom to run his baseball operations department, he knew Bloom would likely spend his first couple weeks getting familiar with people in the organization. Kennedy figured he’d make calls to his players and coaches while working to build relationships with people in the front office. He figured there’d be constant communication between Bloom and other team decision-makers like manager Alex Cora. But the lengths Bloom has gone to in his effort to orient himself with the Red Sox have surprised Kennedy in the first 10 days.

Bloom has made an effort to call and introduce himself to Sox legends like and Jim Rice, Kennedy said Wednesday, in an effort to gain a greater understanding of the team’s history. To Kennedy, that effort has been an early indication that he made the right hire.

“They can give him a sense of the history and what it means to be a member of the Red Sox,” Kennedy said. “I thought that showed some incredible feel on his part, to want to connect with our alums who know what it’s like to be in Boston.”

Since wrapping up meetings in Boston early last week, Bloom has been in Florida with his family, putting the finishing touches on their move to . Before returning to Boston on Wednesday, he spent much of the week in constant communication with Kennedy and others, familiarizing himself with the organization while forming an offseason plan.

While Bloom hopes to foster a collaborative culture in his first go-around running a front office, the Sox want to make it clear that he has ultimate decision-making power.

“I think what we’ll see with Chaim’s leadership, with the baseball ops department, clearly he’s in charge,” Kennedy said. “He’s the decision-maker. The buck stops with him. I do think he’ll be very aggressive in soliciting opinions from his team, his management team. He’s demonstrated that type of culture and fit worked really well for him in Tampa. We expect to see that. Things will play out as we go forward."

***

10 observations from the last week in baseball

1. J.D. Martinez acted all season like he’d let agent Scott Boras make his opt-out decision. How Boras advised him on it speaks to the overall state of the free agent market.

2. Carlos Beltran becomes about the ninth good friend of Alex Cora to become a big-league manager. Great hire by the Mets, and I’m sure we’ll hear a lot of Mets references in Cora’s press conferences this year.

3. How the Pirates possibly fired their GM in the middle of a managerial search is beyond comprehension. They may now be the most dysfunctional organization in the league. (Sorry Mets and Marlins).

4. I’d take a flier on Dellin Betances this year if I was in charge of a team with a bullpen need. Coming off a lost season, he can likely be had for an incentive-laden deal. No risk, high reward.

5. Good to see Dana LeVangie getting interest in coaching gigs elsewhere. After not getting the bullpen coach job in Chicago, he’ll probably remain with the Sox in a pro scouting capacity.

6. The investigation is ridiculous, but it speaks to the tensions between the league and the MLBPA entering the winter.

7. If Ben Cherington is hired to run the Pirates, he might look to bring Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero with him in some capacity. Romero is likely the Sox official who interviewed elsewhere for a job, though that’s unconfirmed.

8. There are some guys who seem like they’ll never leave the teams they play for. Adam Wainwright and feel like two of those.

9. Ah, it’s that time of year where the Yankees are linked to every top free agent. Fun!

10. The GM Meetings start Monday. So it begins.

* WEEI.com

The Monday Baseball Column: Here comes one weird Red Sox offseason

Rob Bradford

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — While we wait for this week’s GM Meetings to unfold, take a second to think about something.

What if John Henry never said …

"We need to be under the CBT. That was something we've known for more than a year now."

Throughout the years the question has been asked of Red Sox management heading into various offseason about how the organization viewed staying under various luxury tax thresholds, or perhaps something regarding the team’s spending limit for that coming season. It was always met with a predictable vagueness.

Not once did Dave Dombrowski say he had a mandate to stay under a certain threshold, but at the end of the day there were probably some spending limits the Red Sox were locking in on. Looking back at this past season, for example, it’s hard to believe that Dombrowski wasn’t told something to the effect, “You already spent your money …” (Sure, the remaining $10 million left on Edwin Encarnacion’s deal had nothing to do with the Red Sox choosing to show no interest in a player they could have absolutely used.)

It’s an approach that isn’t unique to baseball. A few weeks after Henry’s comments — which were immediately met with caveats and break-pumping from Sam Kennedy and Tom Werner — Cubs president Theo Epstein reminded us how it usually goes.

Epstein is right. It serves no purpose to flat-out say what your financial strategy is.

Last offseason Phillies owner John Middleton went the other way, telling USA Today, “We’re going into this expecting to spend money,” Middleton said. “And maybe even be a little stupid about it. We just prefer not to be completely stupid.”

Suddenly agents everywhere were lining up to profess their client's love for Philadelphia.

Sometimes it's utterly obvious a team's approach, which has been often the case with the Red Sox. But it is usually veiled in the kind of words presented by Houston owner Jim Crane to the Houston Chronicle when asked about the potential of re-signing Gerrit Cole.

"We'll see where we end up after the year. We may make a run at it. We're not sure yet," Crane said. "We're going to wait and see what else unfolds and who else is going to stay on the team.

"There's a lot of moves that Jeff (Luhnow) will probably make in the offseason. We're going to keep a very close eye on it, communicate and see where that ends up. He's had a great year. He's young and he's likely going to command a big salary."

But Henry did say it, and so here we are with the reality that this is going to be one of the most complicated Red Sox offseasons in recent memory.

Typically at this time of year the GM/President of Baseball Operations sits down with the media at the GM Meetings and identifies what positions the Red Sox will be prioritizing. That, of course, leads us all to target certain free agents (usually a few big names included) and monitor how the Sox are positioning themselves.

Even in the offseason leading into 2013 when the Red Sox ended up signing a flurry of shorter-term deals (, David Ross, , ) there was talk of of getting in the market for the big-ticket items. Remember when they went to lunch with ? Well, they did.

This time around all we know is the Red Sox have to find a way to shed some money. That, of course, immediately takes the fun out of thinking even mid-range free agents might be in the mix. For instance, they aren't going to jettison Jackie Bradley Jr. to the $11 million most likely coming his way in order to spend it on some other player(s) costing the same price tag.

The idea of going in on any high-leverage reliever like so many were focused on a year ago seems implausible. Even allocating the resources necessary to get a veteran pitcher the likes of Rick Porcello or seems like a path the Red Sox can't take.

If J.D. Martinez left, the conversation might have been different. We could surface names such as Encarnacion or perhaps someone like .

But this is all about who the Red Sox will be trading and what free agent bargains can land in their lap.

It's going to be a very, very different round of roster-building.

NOT APPLES TO APPLES FOR BLOOM

When appearing on the Bradfo Sho podcast last week, new Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom offered an interesting take on how much of the Tampa Bay way could actually translate to life in Boston.

"There are aspects that are different for sure and should be," Bloom said. "Every organization is different and every organization has different opportunities and different challenges. My job here, obviously I think there are a lot of things we did with the Rays are applicable anywhere. It’s not just to take that exact same mindset and bring it here. My job here is to understand the challenges and the opportunities with this organization and to take everything I know and try and mesh that with the group and make sure we’re doing the right thing."

He added, "It’s been a lot of fun. It’s been really energizing and fun to think about this challenge and what is in front of us and the opportunities we have. It is a different set of challenges but at the same time we’re still talking about the game of baseball here. Talent is still talent. Value is still value. It’s not like I come here and we’re playing a different sport. So the value of working together, having a good process, asking good questions, being unafraid to look at things a little differently, to innovate and be on the cutting edge of what is going on in the sport, those can and should apply anywhere."

So, now that he has gotten a chance to look under the hood on Jersey St. has Bloom found the Red Sox folks viewed things in a similar light than the place he came from?

"In a lot of cases, yes," he said. "And that has been interesting. You never know. Increasingly we have seen in this business and in the game of baseball a lot of the thought processes that have been successful for certain organizations, they spread quickly. So I didn’t expect to come in there and sit with our folks and see this categorically different view of the world. But there are always going to be differences of how we look at things and that’s what we’ll explore too.

"There are some (differences), but I expected to be some. So in that sense it’s not overly surprising. I knew enough about the people in the organization that there were going to be a lot of things that we would really vibe well in terms of how we saw the world. I’m actually excited about those differences. Where there are differences that has a chance to make us all better. It doesn’t mean I’m right or their right. It’s less about that than we are going to put our heads together and in a snapshot in time - because my inside knowledge of the Rays is not ongoing anymore — but for a snapshot in time we have a chance to compare some things that I think have a chance to make the Red Sox better."

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES

A year ago the Web site FiveThirtyEight.com wrote an interesting piece on how no club that had committed more than 20 percent of its payroll to one player had won the World Series since 2003. That streak was broken this year when the Nationals claimed the World Series title despite making up 22 percent of their whole ball of wax.

But it should start an interesting conversation.

So we looked at all the teams' current payroll commitments that include projections for their arbitration- eligible players.

Heading into the offseason David Price is slated to make up 15 percent of the Red Sox' payroll (making up just more than 13 percent in 2019), with Mookie Betts coming in at about 13 percent. Their Top 6 salaries will make up 65 percent of their entire payroll (according to SportTrac.com).

For a point of reference, the Red Sox' structure is almost directly in line with the Astros whose Top 6 eats up 67 percent with Justin Verlander topping Houston's list at 16 percent.

It's also interesting to note that is on target to make up 24 percent of the Rays' total number, with Tampa Bay's Top 6 eating up 69 percent of its payroll.

The takeaway from the Red Sox' side of things is that it is OK to distribute the money at the top like they have, but you better make sure those Top 6 produce. Price, Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi are all part of that group and head into 2020 with a boatload of uncertainty. The Astros? Verlander, Greinke, Altuve, Springer, Brantley, Reddick. The Nationals? Scherzer, , Adam Eaton, , Anibal Sanchez, .

Then there are the Angels and Mike Trout. This is the model so many will want to point to when making the argument to prioritize distributing the cash.

Trout is slated to make up 27 percent of his team's payroll, with slotted in at 21 percent. That would make Los Angeles one of four teams with more than one player making up as much as or more than 20 percent, joining Detroit ( 38 percent/ 31 percent), Kansas City ( 24 percent, 21 percent, Salvador Perez 20 percent), and the Braves ( 25 percent, 22 percent).

The most painful for any organization? Not even close. Wei-Yin Chen makes up 64 percent of the Marlins' projected payroll a year after he totaled a 6.59 ERA in 45 relief appearances and not a single start.

Here are all the percentage team leaders heading into the offseason (with the understanding this will change once the free agent money starts being thrown around:

San Diego: Manny Machado, 27 percent Philadelphia: Bryce Harper, 17 percent Toronto: Randall Grichuk 23 percent Texas: Shin-Soo Choo, 20 percent St. Louis: , 17 percent Seattle: Kyle Seager, 10 percent San Francisco: , 17 percent Pittsburgh: , 18 percent Oakland: Khris Davis, 17 percent Mets: Yoenis Cespedes, 18 percent Minnesota: , 17 percent Milwaukee: , 20 percent Marlins: Wei-Yin Chen, 64 percent Dodgers: , 18 percent Royals: Ian Kennedy, 24 percent Detroit: Miguel Cabrera, 38 percent Colorado: , 24 percent Indians: , 19 percent Reds: Joey Votto, 23 percent White Sox: Alex Colome 21 percent (projected to make just more than $10 million) Cubs: 13 percent. (Cubs 9 players 10 million or more. Red Sox have 8.) Baltimore: , 35 percent Braves: Freddie Freeman, 25 percent Arizona: Robbie Ray, 11 percent

ONE MORE BLOOM OBSERVATION

We asked former Red Sox pitcher and current Rays pitching coach for some insight in terms of what to expect with Bloom. He responded with an interesting anecdote (via email):

"Chaim was very instrumental in my development throughout my developmental journey, up to his hiring by the Red Sox. He really pushed continuing education, prioritizing staff development. He raised the difference in between MLB and MILB and encouraging use in non-game capacities, specifically in AAA to acclimate to the different feel and behavior of the ball. Especially the extension that three A had become for the big club. That was early on Maybe 2013 - then when I got to Durham we started to integrate MLB balls into our catch play and side work. His thought. He’s a tireless worker, will explore any and every potential strategic advantage that he and the team can drum up and innovation will continue to be a focus, it just who he is and how his mind works. But he will always take into account how the initiatives impact the player."

SOME OTHER THOUGHTS ...

- Padres Chief Marketing Officer -- and former WEEI.com video coordinator -- Wayne Partello passes on the interesting nugget that with their uniform change San Diego will be the only team in Major League Baseball which doesn't wear gray on the road, going back to brown. (Also, I can confirm the Red Sox will not be changing their uniforms for 2020.)

- The most productive day of any former Red Sox draft pick Sunday? That would belong to Jeff Driskel. The 863rd pick in the 2013 MLB Draft got his first start as an NFL quarterback for the Lions, finishing the Detroit loss with 269 passing yards and one touchdown. Despite signing a contract with the Red Sox, Driskel never did play for the organization, instead continuing his collegiate football career with both Florida and then Louisiana Tech. He was drafted by the 49ers in the sixth round of the 2016 NFL Draft.

* NBC Sports Boston

Chaim Bloom's GM meetings to-do list downright exhausting as 2020 Red Sox begin taking shape

John Tomase

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- The GM meetings are usually pretty sleepy. There's lots of groundwork-laying and tire-kicking and temperature-taking and tea-leaf-reading and trial-ballooning as teams assess what moves might be available at next month's winter meetings.

But the Red Sox and new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom need to hit the ground at a brisk jog, because their offseason projects to be about as sleepy as Al Pacino in "Insomnia." And that makes this week's meetings at the Omni Resort more intriguing for Boston than any team in baseball.

The Red Sox could be in the market for, in no particular order: a right fielder, center fielder, first baseman, second baseman, closer, starter, depth starter, swing starter, break-glass-in-case-of-emergency starter, and however many relievers they can afford with what's left.

MORE TOMASE: How J.D. Martinez can virtually guarantee he stays in Boston That's a hellacious to-do list, especially since item No. 1 will come into play if defending MVP (we can still call him that for a couple of more days) Mookie Betts is traded to ease a payroll crunch that's been exacerbated by the $79 million the Red Sox will pay question-mark starters Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi. Speaking of which, the Red Sox probably wouldn't mind trading one of them.

Bloom couldn't deal Betts this early in the offseason even if he wanted to, because it would require a willing partner, and see paragraph No. 1 for insight into how most teams approach November. But that doesn't mean he can't make some moves around the margins they might nonetheless pay dividends in 2020.

The biggest area of need that can be addressed immediately is the starting rotation. The Red Sox might need to open the season with 10 viable starting options in the organization (including whoever piggybacks with an opener), and that's no exaggeration. Last season, injuries to Sale, Price, and Eovaldi forced a combined 36 starts from Hector Velazquez, Brian Johnson, Andrew Cashner, Jhoulys Chacin, Ryan Weber, Travis Lakins, Josh Smith, , Darwinzon Hernandez, and Bobby Poyner. That group went 3-15 with an ERA that was . . . very bad (6.79, to be exact).

The Red Sox need to fill one actual hole in the rotation with a replacement for free agent Rick Porcello, who could return at a reduced salary, though moving on from a man who has posted a 4.79 ERA since winning the 2016 Award probably makes sense. They then will need enough depth to account for any possible injuries to Sale, Price, and Eovaldi, two of whom underwent surgery last season and one of whom (Sale) still might.

Report: Jackie Bradley Jr. trade "all but certain" That could mean taking a flyer on someone like former Phillies right-hander Jerad Eickhoff, a former well- regarded prospect who just became a free agent after refusing to be outrighted to the minors. Injuries have limited him to only 11 starts over the last two years, but he's only three years removed from winning 11 games and throwing nearly 200 innings while posting a 3.65 ERA.

That's the kind of player the Red Sox will be in the market for, thanks to their self-imposed payroll limitations. Bloom helped unearth gems in Tampa over the last three years, and the Red Sox hired him to do the same here.

With free agents and Steve Pearce gone, a first baseman will be on the agenda, too. While the team could go internal with some combination of Michael Chavis and Bobby Dalbec, there should be no shortage of first basemen available on the market, including 25-homer Brewers slugger and National postseason hero Howie Kendrick.

As for bullpen, the Red Sox have already made one move, signing former White Sox left-hander Josh Osich. There will undoubtedly be more like him to follow as the Red Sox look to upgrade beyond top four relievers Brandon Workman, Matt Barnes, Josh Taylor, and Darwinzon Hernandez.

* Bostonsportsjournal.com

MLB Notebook: Red Sox could end up dealing an outfielder nearing free agency … but not the one you expect

Sean McAdam

As the offseason begins in earnest this week — with the GM Meetings getting under way Monday, presenting the first opportunity for executives to converse face-to-face — speculation continues to build over whether the Red Sox will trade Mookie Betts, now just a year away from free agency.

The Red Sox have decided to cut payroll in order to re-reset their CBT (competitive balance tax) rate. With $150 million committed to players on existing multi-year deals, another $50 million or so ticketed for arbitration-eligibles and still more targeted for the players rounding out the roster, there are cuts to be made.

Already, there has been speculation that the return of J.D. Martinez could force the Sox into moving Betts, who will make somewhere around $28 million in his final year of arbitration-eligibility. But what if the Sox began their cost-cutting by moving another outfielder instead?

Granted, the savings accrued by dealing Jackie Bradley Jr. would be smaller, with Bradley estimated to earn $11 million in his final year of arbitration. The expectation is that the Sox will need to slice about $30 million to get under the $208 million threshold. But it would represent a start. And unlike one of their pricey starting pitchers (David Price or Nathan Eovaldi), the Red Sox wouldn’t have to pay down any of Bradley’s salary.

What’s Bradley’s trade value?

“I think it’s better than what people might think,” said one N.L. evaluator. “The defense, everyone gets. I know the hitting concepts haven’t been perfect, but if you understand what you’re getting and create structure and embrace it, there’s a lot to like. He’s got cripple power (the ability to hit mistakes out of the ballpark) at the bottom of the order. You can control his playing time as much as you want, but you can also let him play as much as you want, too.

“He definitely has some worth.”

Said one scout: “It’s all about pitch recognition with him and getting balls he can handle. He has more raw power than I thought. He’s an undervalued guy who can really pop in the right situation.”

Part of the problem — and this exists on even a larger scale with Betts — is the lack of control. Bradley, too, is only a year away from free agency and given how much organizations value their prospects, there’s some doubt about what a trade for Bradley could provide in return.

“He’s a little expensive for some,” said one scout. “But for the right contender, he could be a nice fit.”

The , who remained in the National League wild-card hunt until last season’s final weeks, could use an upgrade in center. It’s worth noting that several evaluators said Bradley could have greater appeal to an N.L. team, where he could provide bottom-of-the-order power and the frequent late-inning double-switches could help cover up his struggles against left-handed pitching (career .669 OPS).

So, too, could the , and while it’s a stretch to consider the White Sox a contender (they won 72 games last season), they play in a division that is more wide open than most. And outfield defense has been an obvious weakness, particularly as they develop some young starting pitching. Finally, the White Sox have known to covet Bradley for some time, leading to some Bradley-for-Jose Abreu rumors two years ago. ______

Dwight Evans is getting a second chance at Cooperstown, included as one of 10 names on the Modern Era ballot, with the winners to be announced on the eve of next month’s Winter Meetings.

Evans appeared on the Baseball Writers Association of America ballot for just three years before dropping off, failing to get the necessary support.

His 385 homers is a somewhat modest total for a corner outfielder and he fell well short of other obvious milestones that usually guarantee induction. There’s also this: for much of the 1970s, his playing time was somewhat limited, with just one season of 500 at-bats.

But as one of the rare player who was far better in his 30’s than in his 20’s (his best season came when he was 35), Evans eventually blossomed into someone who got on base at a high rate (career .370 OBP) and scored a ton of runs.

In fact, during the 1980s, Evans hit more homers than any other American League player and had more extra-base hits than anyone — AL or NL. He was second in walks in the AL for the decade and second in RBI, too. Big games? Evans had a career .997 OPS in the World Series (1975, 1986).

It’s his defense, of course, which gets Evans into the discussion. He widely recognized as one of the game’s best right fielders ever, in a class with Hall of Famers Roberto Clemente, and few others. He won eight Gold Gloves and his miraculous catch of a Joe Morgan fly ball in deep right in Game 6 of the 1975 World Series, stands as his signature moment in the field and one of the most important plays in World Series history.

Further, Evans (.840) owns a higher career OPS than Clemente (.834) and isn’t far behind that of Kaline (.855).

There are other worthwhile candidates on the ballot, including Lou Whitaker, Steve Garvey and others, to say nothing of Players Association founder Marvin Miller, whose absence continues to be shameful. In the modern era, with the exception of , no other person changed the game more than Miller.

At the very least, here’s hoping Evans gets a fair hearing by the committee, to make up for the BBWAA’s failure to do so 20 years ago. ______

Ordinarily, the Red Sox are expected to be big players in the free-agent market. For good or bad, they’ve landed J.D. Martinez, David Price, , Hanley Ramirez in the last six offseasons, willfully spending to go after some of the stars. That some of them haven’t worked out is almost secondary; the point is, the Sox have been unafraid to compete for some of the stars on the open market.

This winter, that’s not the case. The Sox may well be active, but it will likely come in the form of subtractions (trading off a big salaried-player or two) rather than additions.

A number of free-agent previews have understandably almost ignored the Red Sox.

The ’s annual column which predicts where the top free agents will go — and how much they’ll get — failed to mention the Sox as the likely destination for any of the Top 30 free agents.

In The Athletic, ’s free-agent preview was nearly as dismissive of the Sox when it comes to being big free-agent players. Bowden mentioned the Sox as possibilities for just three players — relievers and and infielder Howie Kendrick.

Kendrick makes a lot of sense, given that the Sox have openings at first base and second, and Kendrick has played both. Given his age (36) and the likelihood that he could be signed to a one-year, affordable deal (he made just $4 million last year for the world champion Nationals).

As for the others? Pomeranz increased his value substantially pitching out of the bullpen for Milwaukee in the second half and while he would be a nice addition, he’s probably too pricey for a return to Boston.

Smith, meanwhile, is the top reliever on the market and will probably get somewhere in the neighborhood of a $12-14 million AAV for multiple seasons. It’s inconceivable to imagine the cost-cutting Sox spending that much for a closer.

Finally, there’s a crystal ball list from MLBTradeRumors.com which lists the Top 50 free agents this winter and has only one — Pedro Strop, on a one-year $5 million deal — headed to Boston.

These predictions, of course, are mostly fun exercises and are hardly scientific. But the almost complete absence of the Red Sox in any of them indicates that, across the industry, the team is not thought to be big players this time around.

* The Athletic

What does Chaim Bloom’s final year in Tampa tell us about what he’ll do with the Red Sox?

Jen McCaffrey

In 2018, the Tampa Bay Rays won 90 games but still missed the playoffs for the fifth straight season, an unfortunate consequence of playing in the uber-competitive .

That winter and throughout the 2019 season, then-senior vice president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom and general manager Erik Neander tinkered and tweaked their lineup, rotation and bullpen with big and small moves. The result was a 96-win team that finished second in the division to a 103-win Yankees club, knocking the reigning World Series champion Red Sox out of postseason contention.

So how did Bloom, now with the Red Sox, and Neander do it? And more importantly, what does it tell us about what Bloom will do in Boston?

Here’s a look (thanks to Baseball-Reference.com) at some of the more significant moves the Rays made from the end of 2018 through the trade deadline of 2019 to push themselves back into contention:

Let’s take a closer look at a few of the more impactful moves, many of which might have seemed like quick fixes at the time but delivered important parts of the 2019 team.

During the GM meetings last year, the Rays pulled off a fairly significant deal to acquire outfielder Guillermo Heredia and catcher Mike Zunino along with minor-leaguer Michael Plassmeyer. Heredia would go on to play 89 games for the Rays as a utility outfielder while Zunino played 90 games behind the plate for the Rays. Plassmeyer, a lefty starter, excelled in the minors.

Meanwhile, as part of the deal, Bloom and Co. weren’t afraid to part with , who’d hit .296 with a .773 OPS the previous year for the Rays. Smith managed to hit just .227 in Seattle, though he did swipe 46 bases. That kind of deal shows their willingness to be aggressive in trading legitimate, proven major-league talent, as long as they’re getting something they need back — as they did in Zunino, especially, even though he didn’t work out for them, posting an ugly .544 OPS in Tampa.

The winter meetings were busy for the Rays, too, with a three-way trade with Seattle and Cleveland. The Rays traded utility man Jake Bauers while acquiring their starting third baseman in Yandy Diaz. That one did work out nicely; Diaz hit .267 with 14 homers through 78 games with the Rays before fracturing his foot and missing most of the second half. The Rays also picked up reliever Cole Sulser in that trade. Sulser had a solid season at Triple-A and pitched seven scoreless games in September for the Rays.

Two weeks later, the Rays nabbed one of the best pitchers on the free-agent market last winter in signing Charlie Morton. Morton was coming off a very strong year in Houston, where he posted a 3.13 ERA over 30 starts, but the Rays managed to sign him to a two-year, $30 million deal with a third-year vesting option. It marked a steal of a contract considering the Red Sox signed Nathan Eovaldi (who spent half of 2019 on the injury list), earlier that month to a four-year deal with an average annual salary of $17 million. Morton delivered beyond perhaps anyone’s expectations, finishing 2019 as a finalist for the AL Cy Young with a 3.05 ERA over 33 starts and 11.1 K/9. That deal showed that the Rays were certainly willing to play in the free-agent market as long as they felt they were getting legitimate talent on the kind of deal they wanted.

The same day as the Morton deal, Tampa also worked another big trade with the Rangers and A’s. Tampa traded three minor-leaguers — Yoel Espinal, , Brock Burke — to Texas for Emilio Pagan and a compensation round pick in the upcoming draft as well as minor-leaguer Rollie Lacy. Pagan became the Rays’ closer with 20 saves, a 2.66 ERA and 12.3 K/9 in a team-high 66 appearances.

The Rays claimed off waivers from the Twins at the end of the 2018 season but later designated him for assignment, allowing the Blue Jays to pick him up. In January, the Rays purchased Drake’s contract from Toronto, though he was designated once again and sent to Triple A. When he finally returned and stuck with the team, it paid off with a 3.21 ER and 11.3 K/9 over 50 relief appearances for the Rays.

The Rays weren’t done with their big moves, though. In January, they signed outfielder Avisail Garcia, who helped anchor their lineup with a .282 average, a .796 OPS, 25 doubles and 20 homers over 125 games.

By the trade deadline, the Rays were in the midst of a sweep of the Red Sox at Fenway Park that further solidified their second-place standing in the division. But rather than let up, they kept adding smartly. On July 28, they traded two minor-leaguers, Curtis Taylor and Edisson Gonzalez, to Blue Jays for second baseman Eric Sogard. Sogard was hitting .300 with an .840 OPS through the first half in Toronto, and though he cooled off a bit in Tampa, batting .266 with a .731 OPS, he still added depth down the stretch.

Three days later, Tampa parted with and minor-leaguer Jesus Sanchez to acquire relievers and Trevor Richards. Anderson posted a 2.11 ERA and eye-popping 17.3 K/9 over 23 appearances in the second half to bolster the Rays bullpen. Stanek, a Rays first-round pick in 2013, had been a key piece of the Rays’ opener strategy in 2018 and the first half of 2019. But again, Bloom and the Rays saw value in Anderson and Richards for the bullpen.

By and large, the Rays’ additions panned out, and several of them played key roles for the team throughout the season. More importantly for the Rays, Morton was the only big-salary player, making $15 million in 2019, while their next-highest-paid player, , made only $8.2 million.

It wasn’t all perfect, by any means. Two pitchers the Rays traded separately to the Dodgers in July — Casey Sadler and Adam Kolarek — went on to have strong second halves in L.A., with Sadler posting a 2.33 ERA over 24 appearances for the Dodgers and Kolarek an 0.77 ERA in 26 appearances. The Rays received minor-leaguers in both trades.

But it was pretty darn good.

So what does this all mean for the Red Sox?

Bloom, of course, did not make these trades and signings alone. He had a team of people and an analytics staff in Tampa with whom he collaborated, but the idea of someone with an outside perspective — with a Tampa-honed, small-market point-of-view — joining the Red Sox front office could shift some thought processes.

“One of the things that Chaim and I talked a lot about is we need to be vulnerable and think about ways each and every day we can improve,” Red Sox president Sam Kennedy said at Bloom’s introductory press conference. “We’ve had a lot of success here since 2002. We’re proud of that success. We know that if we rest for one minute, we can be passed by our competitors. We need to consistently improve, get better, take the best ideas from other organizations and incorporate them into our own systems and processes, and that’s what we plan to do, and that’s something that Chaim spent a lot of time talking about in the interview process, and it was one of the things that really caused us to gravitate towards him.”

This isn’t to say Bloom is expected to turn a $240 million payroll into a $60 million one, but he should be expected to use a similar approach to roster-building as what he used in Tampa to find some overlooked players who perhaps weren’t targeted the Red Sox.

“I think whatever your market size, whatever your resources, our job is to try to deploy those as intelligently as possible,” Bloom said at his introductory press conference. “If we’re going to be successful over the long haul, given the way the game is now, given how competitive, how resourceful the other 29 clubs are, we are going to have to be very consistent and have great processes to how we look at the world.”

Bloom’s adeptness at finding value where others might overlook it seems to be his calling card. If the Red Sox can add some of these inexpensive, under-the-radar types of talent, it’ll help create a more sustainable overall roster and perhaps allow them to allocate their money toward long-term extensions for franchise cornerstone players.

What’s on the Red Sox’ agenda for this week’s GM Meetings

Jen McCaffrey

The baseball offseason is already well underway with hirings, firings, new general managers, managers and coaches galore. But now it’s time to start reshaping rosters and the General Managers meetings, set to run Nov. 11 to 14 in Scottsdale, Arizona, are where those conversations start to take shape.

Generally speaking, the meetings serve as a precursor to the typically more hectic Winter Meetings, which take place Dec. 8-11 in San Diego. Executives and agents use the GM Meetings as a jumping-off point to begin trade negotiations and free agency discussions. While most of the major deals take place during the Winter Meetings, the GM Meetings are an important test ground for gauging teams’ interests and needs.

In addition to the negotiating time, it’s also a chance for executives to discuss the state of the game itself.

So with that in mind, here’s what should be on the Red Sox agenda for this week:

1. Get a feel for the trade market for Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, David Price and basically everybody on the team

Some key pieces of the Red Sox 2019 roster might get traded this winter. How’s that for speculation? At this point, it’s about gathering information on what teams are looking for and what they’re willing to part with on the trade block. There’s likely no clear-cut plan at this point for the Red Sox, other than to evaluate their options. While Red Sox ownership hopes to reduce payroll, it’s unlikely chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will jump at the first trade offer proposed. The GM Meetings will be a good time to start laying the foundation for any of these major trades if they end up happening.

2. Look for a starter via trade or free agency

Perhaps the Red Sox re-sign Rick Porcello, but at the moment he is a free agent and that means the Red Sox only have four starters. Some of the Red Sox’ agenda overlaps, meaning they could get a young controllable starter in a trade for Betts. But either way will be inquiring about starting pitching whether via trades or free agency.

3. Find options for the bullpen, first and second base

Just as with their starting pitching situation, the Red Sox will be in the market for relievers and infield help. Boston claimed left-handed reliever Josh Osich off waivers from the White Sox recently, but he’s probably not the only reliever they’ll add this winter. Whether they pursue someone with more closing experience or leave Brandon Workman in the ninth-inning role, adding to the bullpen will be a priority.

Meanwhile, Brock Holt, Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce also hit free agency and the infield needs a bit of sprucing up. Michael Chavis will be an option and Marco Hernandez and Tzu-Wei Lin are also utility options while Bobby Dalbec might even get a crack, but the Red Sox could benefit from a more veteran option at either first or second base while giving Chavis a chance at the other position.

4. See how Chaim Bloom operates

Bloom worked closely alongside Rays general manager Erik Neander with the Rays so he is by no means unfamiliar with the GM Meetings. However, this time, he’ll be in charge with Brian O’Halloran as his general manager. Outside of his introductory press conference, this will be Bloom’s first real face time with the Boston media as well. Bloom will likely handle most media going forward and has been labeled as a good communicator, so how he handles that aspect of the job will be something to watch.

5. Stay abreast of MLB rule changes

The GM Meetings offer time for executives to meet about issues within the game, from pace of play initiatives to luxury tax complications. In 2019, baseball saw the elimination of the August waiver trades, and the adoption of shorter inning breaks and limited mound visits. In 2020, rules are already in place for a three-batter minimum for pitchers, an expansion to a 26-man roster and the elimination of the 40-man roster expansion in September. Last year’s changes and challenges for the upcoming year will surely be discussed.