ISSN: 2560-1601

Vol. 40, No. 4 (MK)

May 2021

North external relations briefing: Bulgaria refuses to back down on its veto of the Macedonian EU accession talks Gjorgjioska M.Adela

1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11.

+36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin

Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01

Bulgaria refuses to back down on its veto of the Macedonian EU accession talks

Summary

In November 2020 Bulgaria vetoed the start of EU accession talks with N. Macedonia. European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Oliver Varhelyi and Portuguese Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva, whose country holds the EU’s rotating presidency paid a visit to both countries on May 21st in an attempt to break the impasse. Based on the statements by the Bulgarian officials following the visits, it was clear that Bulgaria refuses to back down from its hardline position. However in the days that followed the tone of the Bulgarian officials seemed to be softening down, raising hopes that a solution may be reached before the June 22 meeting of the EU Council. On the Macedonian side, the talk of possible solutions raised fears about the impact this is likely to have on the country’s identity and history in view of the aggressive demands by Bulgaria and the overly conciliatory positioning of the Macedonian Government.

On the 21st of May, European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Oliver Varhelyi and Portuguese Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva (on behalf of the Portuguese Presidency of the Council of the European Union), paid a visit to Bulgaria. The main goal of the visit was to discuss the country’s veto to the Macedonian EU accession talks and the conditions under which it is likely to lift it. Prior to the visit it was speculated that the two European officials were bringing with them what was billed as a “compromise solution” to the - dispute.1 During the visit EU Commissioner Varhelyi remarked: “Bulgaria is a leading Member State when it comes to the design of our policy towards the Western Balkans, Bulgaria is from the region, so it is always worthwhile to come to Sofia to get some insight, to get some discussion, be it political, be it technical, to see how we can move things forward.”2

1 Emerging Europe “Bulgaria will not be moved on EU accession veto”, published on 28.05.2021, available at https://emerging-europe.com/news/bulgaria-will-not-be-moved-on-north-macedonia- eu-accession-veto/?fbclid=IwAR2Ma70iiEZ82pzJf3Iat4UTifmlKLkt_lVAMtH18XIj8YZctYtYPJWbG70 accessed on 31.05.2021

2 EU Commission Press Release “Remarks by Commissioner Várhelyi during a visit in Sofia together with Portuguese Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva and Bulgarian Foreign Minister Svetlan Stoev” published on 21.05.2021, available at

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However, the statements given by the Bulgarian officials following the meeting with the two EU officials have made it clear that the country is unlikely to back down from its veto. “No change in Bulgaria's national position regarding the Republic of North Macedonia can be expected," caretaker Bulgarian Foreign Minister Svetlan Stoev stated, adding that Bulgaria’s stance was adopted by all parties in parliament, and that the current interim government has no authority to change it.3 Similarly Bulgarian President Rumen Radev was quoted as saying: “We want to see not declarations, but clear guarantees for our national security and for our national interests."4 These statements indicated that Bulgaria had ruled out a reversal of its veto of the EU starting the long-delayed accession talks with N.Macedonia because of its identity claims over history and language. In a media interview, Professor Biljana Vankovska from the Faculty of Philosophy in Skopje commented that an easy resolution of the dispute is unlikely in this context: “It is political naiveté to expect a caretaker government to resolve a bilateral dispute, both because it does not have any political and popular legitimacy to do so, and because the Macedonian question still bears lot of emotional potential for the forthcoming new elections.”5

Várhelyi and Silva in Skopje

On the same day (21st of May), following their meetings in Sofia, Várhelyi and Santos Silva also paid a visit to Skopje, where they met with Prime Minister Zoran Zaev, Deputy PM Nikola Dimitrov and Foreign Minister Bujar Osmani.6 At the official press conference

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/commissioners/2019-2024/varhelyi/announcements/remarks- commissioner-varhelyi-during-visit-sofia-together-portuguese-foreign-minister-augusto-santos_en accessed on 31.05.2021

3 Free Europe “Brussels failed to reconcile Sofia and Skopje. Bulgaria will not give up the veto” published on 21.05.2021, available at https://www.svobodnaevropa.bg/a/31266495.html accessed on 31.05.2021

4 Radio Free Europe “Bulgaria Says It Remains Opposed To EU Accession Talks For North Macedonia” published on 21.05.2021 available at https://www.rferl.org/a/bulgaria-opposition-north-macedonia-eu-accession/31267364.html accessed on 31.05.2021

5 Emerging Europe “Bulgaria will not be moved on North Macedonia EU accession veto”, published on 28.05.2021, available at https://emerging-europe.com/news/bulgaria-will-not-be-moved-on-north-macedonia- eu-accession-veto/?fbclid=IwAR2Ma70iiEZ82pzJf3Iat4UTifmlKLkt_lVAMtH18XIj8YZctYtYPJWbG70 accessed on 31.05.2021

6 European Western Balkans “Várhelyi and Silva travel to Sofia and Skopje in an attempt to break the deadlock” available at https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2021/05/21/varhelyi-and-silva-travel-to-sofia-and-skopje-in-an-attempt- to-break-the-deadlock/ published on 21.05.2021, accessed on 31.05.2021

2 following the meeting, PM Zaev revealed that the two officials had presented a draft solution aimed at overcoming the problem between the two countries. Moreover, he stated: “I, with the team in the Government in charge of these negotiations, will seriously and responsibly consider all the details of the proposed solution”. He further added that the proposal is a good basis for reaching a solution to the problem.7

Several days later (on the 26th of May) Michael Roth, Minister of State for Europe at the German Federal Foreign Office, also paid a visit to Skopje. During the official press conference he raised the hopes that N.Macedonia’s accession talks may be opened on June 22 in the EU Council. “I am grateful to our friends here…[in North Macedonia] and in Bulgaria because now we have a big chance to put forward a solution that could be accepted by all sides as soon as June.” Moreover, he added that “the Portuguese [EU] presidency is working actively on such a solution, and we… in Berlin we are supporting it however we can”. Furthermore, he stated “Now, we all see clearly that we need credible successes in the Western Balkans, not because it is in your [North Macedonia’s] interest, but because it is also in our own interest to have stability, regional reconciliation, safety and democracy. That is of utmost importance for the EU”, Roth concluded.8

Roth’s host, Deputy PM Nikola Dimitrov said that he too was a cautious optimist that a solution might be reached before the June 22nd meeting. In particular he said that he was encouraged by the joint visit to Rome by Bulgarian President Radev and Macedonian President Pendarovski who travelled to pay homage to the Slavic saints, Sts Cyril and Methodius, who are celebrated in both countries and across the Slavic world.9 Several days earlier following a visit to Brussels Bulgarian President Radev stated: “It’s expected that in the second part of June there will be further movements around the question with N. Macedonia’s path to the EU”. However, he also added that N. Macedonia now needs to send Bulgaria a timetable for

7 Ibid

8 Balkan Insight “Germany Rekindles Hope of Breakthrough on North Macedonia’s EU Bid” published on 27.05.2021, available at https://balkaninsight.com/2021/05/27/germany-rekindles-hope-of-breakthrough-on-north-macedonias-eu- bid/ accessed on 31.05.2021

9 Ibid

3 addressing Bulgaria’s demands, which, if passed in the Bulgarian parliament, could allow for a breakthrough.10

Such optimism for breakthrough however was met with suspicion by the Macedonian public. In particular, the biggest concerns stemmed from fears that the Government is willing to compromise on matters of high national interest in order to appease the unfounded and hostile demands of the Bulgarian state. As stated by Professor Vankovska, the Bulgarian veto is an outcome of the “long-lasting continuity of Bulgaria’s positions vis-à-vis Macedonia and Macedonians, which even bypasses the transition from communism to liberalism.11 Since the 19th century the Bulgarian state has worked on denying the uniqueness of the Macedonian nation, its language and history in an attempt to absorb it within its own national narrative. Currently, it is using its superior position as an EU member state to impose its demands on the aspirant EU member.12 Any compromise in this context is thus likely to stem from international (EU) pressure on the weaker Macedonian side to accept the Bulgarian demands, and is thus unlikely to offer a true balanced solution. Thus, according to Vankovska “all Sofia needs to do now is wait while North Macedonia, even though it survived the name change, may not be able to survive what Bulgaria is asking from it.” Moreover, on a pessimistic note which stands in stark contrast with the often relaxed attitude presented by the Prime Minister, she adds: “The dispute may ‘end’ either by another ‘Prespa operation’ where the Macedonian side will again be forced to accept what is at the table or just letting things evolve towards a ‘natural end’ – such as the end of Macedonia as we know it.”13

Breaking the impasse caused by the Bulgarian veto on the Macedonian EU accession negotiations was the reason behind several high level meetings at the end of May. On the 21st of May, European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Oliver Varhelyi and

10 Ibid

11 Ibid

12 For the background on the dispute see: Gjorgjioska, M.A. (2020). EU Council Unanimity – Insurmountable Hurdle on the Macedonian Road to EU Membership? China CEE Institute, July 2020, available at https://china- cee.eu/2020/07/25/north-macedonia-external-relations-briefing-eu-council-unanimity-insurmountable-hurdle- on-the-macedonian-road-to-eu-membership/

13 Emerging Europe “Bulgaria will not be moved on North Macedonia EU accession veto”, published on 28.05.2021, available at https://emerging-europe.com/news/bulgaria-will-not-be-moved-on-north-macedonia- eu-accession-veto/?fbclid=IwAR2Ma70iiEZ82pzJf3Iat4UTifmlKLkt_lVAMtH18XIj8YZctYtYPJWbG70 accessed on 31.05.2021

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Portuguese Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva paid visits to both Sofia and Skopje. In Skopje it was revealed that two officials had presented a draft solution aimed at overcoming the problem between the two countries. In spite of this, the statements made by Bulgarian officials suggested that a solution is highly unlikely. However, the atmosphere seemed to be shifting in the coming days following Bulgarian President Radev’s visit to Brussels, and his joint trip to Rome alongside Macedonian President Pendarovski. These developments led German Minister Roth to express optimism about a possible solution before the June 22 meeting of the European Council. Amongst the Macedonian public, the talk of possible solutions raised fears about the impact this is likely to have on the country’s identity and history in view of the aggressive demands by Bulgaria and the overly conciliatory positioning of the Macedonian Government.

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