PROJECT ON GOVERNMENT OVERSIGHT THE DEFENSE MONITOR

U.S. AIR FORCE PHOTO/AIRMAN 1ST CLASS CHRISTOPHER MALDONADO

The Military’s Technology Leadership Problem Leadership, not technology, failures are at the root of most wasteful Pentagon programs

The following piece was first published in September 2017. The original can be found at http://www.pogo.org/straus/issues/military- reform/2017/the-militarys-leadership-problem.html?referrer=https://www.bing.com/

BY DAN GRAZIER AND LIZ HEMPOWICZ ews about the F-35 nearly always focuses The Revolving Door on technical issues: what is working or not Why do senior Pentagon leaders demonstrate such poor at that particular time. Constant reporting leadership? The culture of the senior ranks certainly plays along those lines sets the narrative that at a big part. National security journalist Thomas Ricks the most fundamental level, the F-35 program’s faults are wrote about this in his book, The Generals.2 He described Nthe result of deeply flawed technologies. Longtime read- how most senior officers today aspire to be viewed as ers know the Project On Government Oversight and its “good guys.” Andrew Bacevich, a retired Army colonel Center for Defense Information is as guilty of this as any- and historian, described the type this way: one.1 But that reporting leaves out the real fundamental issue: a leadership problem closely tied to the infamous The good guy projects the right attitude, strikes the “revolving door” between the military’s senior ranks and right pose, and recites all the right clichés. Good defense contractor boardrooms. guys are team players. They don’t rock the boat.

1 Dan Grazier, “F-35 Continues to Stumble,” Straus Military Reform Project, March 30, 2017. 2 Max Boot, “Bureaucrats in Uniform: ‘The Generals,’ by Thomas E. Ricks,” The New York Times, December 7, 2012.

©2017 Project On Government Oversight ISSN # 0195-6450 • Volume XLVI, Number 3 • August-September 2017 POGO They get ahead by going along. that Northrop Grumman elected In practical terms, demonstrat- former Air Force Chief of Staff Mark STAFF ed adherence to orthodoxy Welsh to its board six months after Danielle Brian, Executive Director Scott Amey, General Counsel becomes the premier qualifi- he retired and only a little more than Lydia Dennett, Investigator cation for admission. Heretics a year after the Air Force selected Danni Downing, Editor & Congressional 3 Training Program Director need not apply. Northrop Grumman for the $55 bil- Abby Evans, Donor Relations Manager lion B-21 bomber contract.7 Tim Farnsworth, Chief Communications Strategist Perhaps the fastest way for an of- These are only two of the most re- Ned Feder, M.D., Staff Scientist ficer to be ostracized from this ex- cent and well-known examples of the Leslie Garvey, Design & Innovation Manager clusive fraternity is to do anything Military-Industrial-Congressional Neil Gordon, Investigator to interrupt the smooth transfer of Complex’s “revolving door.” This is Dan Grazier, Jack Shanahan Fellow taxpayer dollars from the Treasury where retired generals and admirals Katherine Hawkins, Investigative Counsel Liz Hempowicz, Director of Public Policy through the Pentagon into the cof- take highly paid positions in the de- David Hilzenrath, Chief Investigative fers of a defense contractor—say by fense industry. Their status as retired Reporter Lynn Mandell, Finance Manager raising questions about the need for flag officers lends credibility and- ac Sean Moulton, Open Government or the efficacy of a Service’s new pet cess to the companies.8 Program Manager 4 Christine Ostrosky, Media & weapons program. An officer -do As POGO reported in 2004 in The Communications Assistant ing so would doubtlessly offend his Politics of Contracting: Chris Pabon, Director of Development Nick Pacifico, Associate General Counsel team-playing superiors within the Andrea Peterson, Investigator Service, risking promotions and de- The revolving door is a story Laura Peterson, Investigator Justin Rood, Congressional Oversight sirable assignments. An officer who of money, information, in- Initiative Director did so would also find few defense fluence, and access—access Keith Rutter, Chief Operating Officer Pam Rutter, Community Engagement contractors willing to offer lucrative that ensures that phone calls Manager sinecures upon his or her retirement. get through to policymakers Nick Schwellenbach, Director of Because of course it is only a coin- and meetings get scheduled. Investigations Mandy Smithberger, Director of the CDI cidence that Raytheon elected retired The American taxpayer is left Straus Military Reform Project Marine General James Cartwright to with a system that sometimes Mia Steinle, Investigator Emma Stodder, Social Media Manager its board six months after he retired compromises the way the Mark Thompson, National Security and a mere two years after he came government buys goods and Analyst 9 Peter Tyler, Investigator to the rescue of the Raytheon-built services from its contractors. Daniel Van Schooten, Investigator JLENS, the failed $2.7 billion balloon- Adam Zagorin, Journalist-in-Residence based radar system that famously Senior officers used to consider CDI MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD went for an off-the-leash joyride over behavior like this to be deeply shame- Lt. Col. Tony Carr, USAF (Ret.) Pennsylvania in October 2015.5 This ful. Following World War II, the most Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis, USA (Ret.) Maj. Donald E. Vandergriff, USA (Ret.) program consumed 17 years’ worth senior Army generals—George Mar- Col. Gary I. Wilson, USMC (Ret.) of time, effort, and money with little shall, Dwight Eisenhower, Douglas Col. Michael D. Wyly, USMC (Ret.) to show for it other than amusing MacArthur, Hap Arnold, and Omar BOARD OF DIRECTORS headlines. The Army deactivated the Bradley—all turned down many David Hunter, Chair unit in June 2017.6 lucrative offers in the defense indus- Debra Katz, Vice Chair Dina Rasor, Treasurer And clearly it’s also coincidence try. Upon retiring after serving as Ryan Alexander Henry Banta Lisa Baumgartner Bonds 3 Andrew Bacevich, “’Good Guys’ Make Bad Generals,” The American Conservative, May 13, 2013. David Burnham 4 G.I. Wilson, “Careerism and Psychopathy in the US Military leadership,” Marine Corps Associa- Sarah Chayes tion & Foundation Blog, May 24, 2011. Andrew Cockburn 5 Jon Kasle, “James E. Cartwright Elected to Raytheon Board of Directors,” Raytheon Company Michael Cavallo News Release, January 27, 2012; David Willman, “High-level support saved radar system from Mickey Edwards the ax,” Los Angeles Times, September 24, 2015; Ian Duncan, “Balloon escape is latest problem for Pamela Gilbert troubled Army program,” The Baltimore Sun, October 28, 2015. Debra Katz 6 Yvonne Johnson, “JLENS battery inactivates,” APG News, June 22, 2017. Dan Olincy 7 Randy Belote, “Northrop Grumman Elects Mark A. Welsh III to its Board of Directors,” Northrop Norman Ornstein Grumman Newsroom, December 8, 2016; Lara Seligman, “Northrop Grumman Wins Air Force’s Nithi Vivatrat Long Range Strike Bomber Contract,” Defense News, October 27, 2015. Anne Zill 8 G.I. Wilson, “Careerism,” Center for Defense Information, February 2011. Morton Mintz, Emeritus 9 Scott Amey, The Politics of Contracting, Project On Government Oversight, June 29, 2004. Secretary of State and Defense, Mar- shall led the Red Cross. Eisenhower became President of the United States, but before that led Columbia University. Arnold created a think tank and wrote his memoirs. Brad- ley served on the board of the Bulova

U.S. AIR FORCE PHOTO/SAMUEL KING JR. Watch Company. Even the imperious MacArthur went to work for a type- writer manufacturer. Alas, those days are long gone.

The F-35 Case Study

The F-35 was conceived to be a multi- Eglin Air Force Base firefighters mission aircraft that would meet the move toward an F-35 Lightning II very different requirements of three during an exercise. separate services. Add to that the needs of eight partner countries and various foreign military sales cus- The technical shortcomings of the term for the deliberate overlap of tomers, and no one should be sur- F-111 were secondary to the main development, testing, and produc- prised by the results.10 In attempting shortcoming of the program: the lead- tion. The F-35 will likely go down in to be all things to all people, the F-35 ership’s decision to build a one-size- history as one of the most egregious can’t perform any single mission par- fits-all aircraft. When they came up examples of this form of “acquisi- ticularly well, and the entire thing with the idea, at least those in charge tion malpractice.”13 At the current ends up costing a fortune.11 then might not have known better rate, the services will have nearly 800 The problems with creating a one- because they did not have a glaring deficiency-laden F-35s in production size-fits-all aircraft should have been historical failure staring them down before the fixes have been completed well known to the decision-makers as they made their decision; the DoD and fully tested.14 at the time. The Pentagon tried to do political appointees and the general Senior leaders knew this was a the same thing in the 1960s with the officers in charge of acquisition at the bad idea. F-111 program, when then-Defense inception of the F-35 have no such Concurrency, as a RAND Cor- Secretary Robert S. McNamara con- cover. They had the clear example of poration analyst explained in testi- verted the Air Force’s single mission the F-111 that most of them had lived mony before the House Committee F-111 nuclear bomber project into a through (specifically, Les Aspin and on Government Reform on May 10, multi-mission, multi-Service aircraft all the generals and admirals), but 2000, is rooted “in the politics of the for the Air Force and Navy.12 The re- they chose to push ahead with an acquisition process.”15 This practice sults pleased no one and the Navy acquisition concept they should have serves to limit the available political dropped out of the program before it known was flawed. options for restructuring programs went into production. The Air Force Leadership, or the lack thereof, experiencing significant test failures cut short the number of F-111s it is the most serious factor in what or cost overruns. When the Pentagon bought and quickly initiated a single- is perhaps the most pervasive and makes substantial procurement com- mission air-to-air fighter that became expensive of all flawed acquisition mitments well before development the F-15 program. strategies, concurrency. This is the or testing is complete, it severely in-

10 Lockheed Martin, “The Centerpiece of 21st Century Global Security.” 11 John Q. Bolton, “The High-Cost of High-Price Aircraft,” Small Wars Journal, October 26, 2015. 12 Strategic-Air-Command.com, “General Dynamics F-111 Aardvark.” 13 Amy Butler, “Kendall: Premature F-35 Production Was ‘Acquisition Malpractice,’” Aviation Week, February 6, 2012. 14 Director of Operational Test and Evaluation, “F-35 Joint Strike Fighter,” FY 2016 Annual Report, January 2017, p. 57. 15 Statements of Dr. Thomas L. McNaugher, Deputy Director, Arroyo Center, Rand; Rodney Larkins, Business Development Manager, 3M Corp.; and Dr. Wesley Harris, Professor, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics before the House Committee on Government Reform’s Subcommittee on National Security, Veterans Affairs, and International Relations’ Hearing on “Joint Strike Fighter Acquisition Reform: Will it Fly?” May 10, 2000, p. 102. (Hereinafter “Joint Strike Fighter Acquisition Reform: Will it Fly?”)

www.pogo.org/straus 3 creases the political costs of cancel- save money in the long-term. Both marginal at best (it is still an aircraft ling the program due to all the mon- claims remain dubious. The Service carrier), is worth the investment. The ey already invested and all the jobs scrapped the long-proven technology last Nimitz-class aircraft carrier cost already created. of steam-powered catapults and hy- $6.9 billion. The Navy claims it will What makes this even worse is draulic arresting gear, and replaced save $5 billion over the lifetime of that these production commitments them with the brand new and wholly the Ford due to manpower savings are made at the point in the process untested Electromagnetic Aircraft (which may never be realized).18 So when the programs are most likely Launch System (EMALS) and “water the American people are paying up- to need revision or restructuring due twister” arresting-gear technology. front an extra $6 billion before over- to unanticipated technical problems. Those two systems, in turn, required runs to save an unproven $5 billion During the phase of the development an all-new ship design to support over 50 years. process when prototypes are being their radically different space and That is not a technology problem. tested, “the data almost always is electrical requirements. Because of That is a leadership problem. No ad- going to contradict the optimism of the massive electrical charge and the miral and no senior civilian in the ac- early assessments.”16 This means the reduced steam supply the EMALS quisition chain of command stood up airplane, tank, ship, or other weapon requires, the Ford-class ships needed to put a stop to such a risky scheme system may well not be perform- a newly designed nuclear reactor, or to even raise an objection to the ing up to the level promised when new turbine generators, and a new kind of arithmetic that only makes votes were being solicited to get the electrical distribution system. And sense to a defense contractor looking program off the ground. And it is the water twister arresting gear re- for business. precisely at this point that Congress quired the entire aft end of the car- and the taxpayer are stymied from rier to be reconfigured. In the event Possible Solutions A four-star general who retires after Paying upfront an extra $6 billion before overruns 30 years receives a pension of more to save an unproven $5 billion over 50 years is the than $250,000 a year (sometimes kind of arithmetic that only makes sense to a defense earning more than while they were contractor looking for business. on active duty).19 They also receive generous health care benefits through exercising the reasonable options of of failure, neither the EMALS nor TRICARE, and base privileges that either cancelling the buy or slow- the water twister can be replaced by allow them to shop tax-free in the ing the program to implement fixes. their steam or hydraulic predeces- commissaries and base exchanges.20 Instead, they are forced to continue sors without tearing the entire carrier These are benefits retired admirals buying the early production units of apart. But the Navy committed to all and generals earn for the years of the airplane or tank or ship, exactly of that while EMALS and the water sacrifice and service on behalf of the the ones that invariably have the twister were still only engineering American people. Doubtless few citi- highest price tags. As Air Force cost sketches. zens would seriously take issue with analyst and whistleblower A. Ernest The Service took an enormous the government rewarding honor- Fitzgerald often bemoaned, “It’s ei- gamble by building a $13 billion ship able service in such a manner. ther too early to tell, or too late to do around technology that had never However, this does become an is- anything about it.” been demonstrated. That is an incred- sue when retired flag officers cash in Another example of this is the ibly and unnecessarily risky acquisi- on their service by taking highly paid USS Ford aircraft carrier.17 In order to tion strategy. There is the question positions with firms attempting to secure significant new funding, the about whether the advertised per- do business with the Pentagon. The Navy claimed the new design would formance improvement of 25 percent problem is not just what they do after outperform existing carriers and improved sortie rate, which would be they retire. It is obviously disappoint-

16 “Joint Strike Fighter Acquisition Reform: Will it Fly?” p. 102. 17 Dan Grazier and Pierre Sprey, “How Not to Build a Ship: The USS Ford,” Straus Military Reform Project, May 30, 2017. 18 Huntington Ingalls Industries, “The Ford-Class Carrier.” 19 Tom Philpott, “Congress: We went too far on star-rank retirement,” Stars and Stripes, December 31, 2014; Mandy Smithberger, “Congress Reins in Excessive Pensions for Top Brass,” Straus Military Reform Project, January 15, 2015. 20 Ryan Guina, “Active Duty Military Retirement Benefits,” The Military Wallet, December 17, 2014.

4 The Defense Monitor | August-September 2017 The future USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) underway on its own power for the first time.

ing to see someone betray the public it wouldn’t anyway—a board mem- A less extreme solution would be trust for their own personal or finan- bership at Northrop Grumman, for to suspend rank and retirement bene- cial gain. The real problem is what example, was worth an average of fits during the period of employment they had to do, or not do, while still $260,621 per year in 2016).21 This is with a defense contractor. Either of in uniform to increase their chances about combating the possibility of these solutions would significantly of being offered the lucrative post- senior officers compromising their (perhaps completely?) remove the retirement positions. Again, how integrity while in uniform to position current incentives baked into the re- likely would a defense contractor be themselves for a big payout after tak- volving door system. to hire someone who criticized or ing off the uniform. The goal is to reattach the stigma cancelled a big acquisition program? Military pensions and retire- once attached to those who use their The most drastic solution to dis- ment benefits are rewards for honor- rank and position for personal gain. courage that kind of behavior in fu- able service. Officers dishonor that At best, it may remind officers that ture generations of military leaders service by selling their influence to their first obligation is to the young would be to strip retired generals firms doing business with the Pen- men and women they are supposed and admirals of their rank and/or tagon. Stripping those benefits sends to lead into battle, the same young retirement benefits if they make the the message in a very tangible way people who are the very first to be choice to travel through the revolv- that such behavior is dishonorable. hurt in combat by any bad decisions ing door and accept positions with At the very least, this proposal would made in the pursuit of a corner office, defense contractors. The idea behind prevent the American people from say at Raytheon, Boeing, Northrop n U.S. NAVY PHOTO BY MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST 2ND CLASS RIDGE LEONI this is not to punish anyone (which subsidizing such behavior. Grumman, or Lockheed Martin.

21 Oriana Pawlyk, “Former Air Force Chief of Staff Joins Northrop,” DoD Buzz, December 9, 2016.

www.pogo.org/straus 5 Generally Concerning

The following piece was first published in August 2017. The original can be found at http://www.pogo.org/straus/issues/military- reform/2017/generally-concerning.html

BY MANDY SMITHBERGER ocuments obtained by advice about national security issues lic financial disclosure form.2 Before the Project On Govern- with the assumption that their sole becoming Defense Secretary, Mat- ment Oversight name loyalty is to the interests of the United tis’s last position in government was seven retired Marine States. It should be clear to policy- as the commander of Central Com- Corps officers—including the Secre- makers and the public if their advice mand (CENTCOM) from 2010 to Dtary of Defense and the President’s may be influenced because they are 2013, which included the UAE in his Chief of Staff—who sought and ob- receiving money from or have had area of responsibility (AOR). tained permission from the Marine previous professional relationships The Director of Defense Press Op- Corps to be paid to work on behalf of with foreign governments. erations said that because Secretary foreign governments and companies “These individuals are trading on Mattis did not receive compensa- after they retired. POGO acquired the special trust and confidence be- tion—other than reimbursement for the documents from the Marine stowed upon them by the American travel expenses—the Office of - Gov Corps through a Freedom of Infor- people for their own personal gain,” ernment Ethics told him he did not mation Act (FOIA) request. Jack Shanahan Fellow Dan Grazier, a need to disclose the information.3 Under current law, any retired former Marine Corps captain, said. Mattis did list other uncompensated or reserve members of the military POGO is still waiting for respons- positions, however, including the wishing to work for a foreign govern- es to similar requests from the Air U.S. Naval Institute and Center for a ment or receive emoluments (a salary Force, Navy, and State Department. New American Security. His spokes- or payments) from one must obtain man also said that even though the approval from the Secretary of their Inconsistent Disclosure Secretary didn’t report this relation- military service and from the Secre- Secretary of Defense James Mattis ship to the Office of Government Eth- tary of State.1 asked for permission to work as a ics he did tell the Senate Armed Ser- High-ranking military officers are military advisor to the United Arab vices Committee and included the regularly called on by the Defense Emirates (UAE) in 2015. Mattis did information in his security clearance Department and Congress to provide not list this employment in his pub- review. The Committee would not

1 37 USC §908 2 “Executive Branch Personnel Public Financial Disclosure Report (OGE Form 278e),” January 5, 2017. 3 Jeremy Herb, “First on CNN: Mattis advised UAE military before joining Trump administration,” CNN, August 2, 2017.

6 The Defense Monitor | August-September 2017 confirm or deny what information it under current laws. A number of offi- Insufficient Disclosure of Foreign received. cers accepted positions in companies Influence The Marine Corps regularly col- receiving funding from countries in The documents provided to POGO laborates with the UAE for training.4 the Middle East. For instance, after show other officers who received Even before seeking permission to he left government former Obama permission but whose names were be an advisor to the country, Mattis National Security Advisor James L. redacted under a “b6” exemption, spoke positively of the country’s mil- Jones worked as an independent se- which prohibits disclosure of per- itary capabilities, referring to them as curity consultant with Ironhand Se- sonal information “when an individ- “great warriors” and “Little Sparta” curity, LLC, which he claimed had ual’s privacy interest in it outweighs to The Washington Post in 2014.5 The a pending contract with the Min- any public interest.” When the pub- UAE similarly admires the Marine ister of Defense for the Kingdom of lic interest outweighs those privacy Corps, participating in a number of Saudi Arabia. Retired Major General concerns, agencies can release the exchanges and requesting formal Arnold Punaro, who sits on the De- information. training programs from the Corps. fense Business Board, also received Current laws require public dis- Secretary Mattis’s previously un- permission to be an independent se- closure for foreign lobbying but are disclosed relationship with the UAE curity consultant with the company. less transparent when it comes to oth- could add a new dimension to recent Even though the Defense Business er forms of foreign influence. Under controversies surrounding the UAE’s Board provides the Department ad- the Foreign Agents Registration Act role in convincing President Trump vice, there are no financial disclosure (FARA) anyone who lobbies on behalf to support a blockade on Qatar. requirements for board members of foreign governments and political White House Chief of Staff and or prohibitions on them receiving parties must register their activities former Homeland Security Secre- money from foreign governments. with the Department of Justice and tary John Kelly worked as a senior Retired Major General Thomas L. submit regular documentation de- course mentor for the 2016 Austra- Moore became a Senior Consultant scribing their activities. As POGO lian Defense Force Joint Task Force for Stark Aerospace Business Devel- Investigator Lydia Dennett recently Commanders Course before joining opment in Israel after he was Chief of detailed in written testimony for the the current administration. But un- Staff and Acting Deputy Command- Senate Judiciary Committee, that law like Mattis, Kelly disclosed the work. er of CENTCOM. has a number of weaknesses and en- In his ethics agreement Kelly said he The disclosures also show several forcement problems that undermine would “not participate personally retired officers working for Asian the law’s goal of shining a light on and substantially in any particular companies. Former Marine Corps how foreign governments attempt to matter involving specific parties in Commandant James Amos received influence US policies.7 But it is a sig- which Australia, is a party or rep- permission to join the board of VT nificantly more public tool than the resents a party,” until he received Systems Inc, an engineering firm that current system for monitoring how his full payment unless otherwise is a subsidiary of Singapore Tech- retired and reserve military officers authorized.6 nologies Engineering and has offices work for foreign governments. in the UAE and Brazil. Retired Briga- As Congress investigates and Officers Joining Companies dier General Ronald F. Baczkowski, evaluates the sufficiency of current Receiving Foreign Government who was the deputy commander foreign influence transparency laws, Money of Marine Corps Forces, Pacific, they may also want to look into Other retired officers working for received permission to be the North whether others who receive money foreign governments are not cur- American Business Development from or work for foreign govern- rently in government, and do not Director for Singapore Technologies ments should make that information have obligations for public disclosure Kinetics. publicly available. n

4 Guidance in Support of Marine Corps Training Mission – United Arab Emirates, March 13, 2017. 5 Rajiv Chandrasekaran, “In the UAE, the United States has a quiet, potentially nicknamed ‘Little Sparta,’” The Washington Post, November 9, 2014. 6 “Kelly, John F. Amended Ethics Agreement,” January 5, 2017. 7 Written Testimony of Lydia Dennett, Investigator, Project On Government Oversight, Before the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary Hearing on “Oversight of the Justice Department’s (Non) Enforcement of the Foreign Agents Registration Act: Lessons from the Obama Administra- tion and Current Compliance Practices,” July 26, 2017.

www.pogo.org/straus 7 spent the last decade-and-a-half listening to the nation’s military leaders explaining, over bacon Iand eggs, how the United States was making progress in Afghanistan. Ever since 2001, senior officers would regularly stop by the Fairmont Hotel in Washington, DC, to explain to reporters how the nation’s longest war (although it didn’t reach that point until June 2010, when it eclipsed Vietnam) was going, and why it was worth pursuing. I did that as a reporter for Time Magazine, where the rules of the road required a certain detachment that kept one from using barnyard epithets as their justifications for the fit-and-start war unraveled year after year. But I’m no longer con- strained by such strictures, which leads me to say: poppycock. One can only take the constant spinning for so long before becoming dizzy and Afghanistan, cynical over can-do officers who can’t- do—and lack the guts to say it can’t be done given the tools they’ve been given. Their failure to do so cheats Sunny-Side Up every Afghan-bound young man and woman wearing the uniform. As an American stung by 9/11’s 15 years of too-good-to-be-true horrors, I wanted the U.S. military to wipe the perpetrators out. In Penta- breakfasts gon hallways in late 2001 there was a belief the war would be over quickly, and it was, in terms of toppling the BY MARK THOMPSON Taliban. I traveled to Afghanistan in the early years, charting the war’s progress. Almost imperceptibly, the U.S. charter was growing into a mammoth mission to groom a cohe- The following piece was first published in August 2017. sive nation instead of the patchwork The original can be found at http://www.pogo.org/straus/issues/military- of warlords that Afghanistan had industrial-circus/2017/afghanistan-and-eggs.html always been, and continues to be. President Trump has declared his intention to stay this course. “We will always win,” he told servicemembers on August 21 at Fort Myer, just across the Potomac from the White House.

ILLUSTRATION BY MATT WUERKER “In the end, we will win.” But even

8 The Defense Monitor | August-September 2017 the senior member of his Cabinet ing the bad guy is not the answer,” they’ve had to live through in the acknowledged that the minor tweaks he said in February 2009. “We can last several decades,” Army Lieu- Trump is proposing are unlikely to win the 10-second firefight every tenant General H.R. McMaster, now make any real difference. “You will time,” said Kelly, whose son, Robert, Trump’s national security adviser, not win a battlefield victory,” Secre- would be killed in Afghanistan the said in February 2015. “I think you tary of State Rex Tillerson told the following year. “But the real solu- can quickly see the dramatic changes Taliban the day after Trump spoke. tion is connecting with the people, and positive change in Afghanistan.” “We may not win one, but neither and protecting the people, and more Well now. Afghanistan is nothing will you.” importantly, helping the people pro- but a treadmill. The United States How’s that for a call to arms? tect themselves.” has no will to win. If it did, Congress So now is a good time to revisit Later that year, Obama ordered would declare war, with the backing those Defense Writers Group break- a surge of 30,000 more troops into of the American people. As it is, they fasts to recall the conflict’s gilding Afghanistan, boosting U.S. forces to can’t be bothered: 40 million people since President George W. Bush “Afghanistan is nothing but a treadmill. The United launched the U.S. invasion on Octo- ber 7, 2001. Its aim was to punish the States has no will to win. If it did, Congress would Taliban for sheltering Osama bin declare war, with the backing of the American people.” Laden’s al Qaeda, which had carried out the 9/11 attacks that killed nearly their peak of 100,000 in 2011. Good watched Obama’s televised address 3,000 the month before. Since then, news followed. “We saw positive on Afghanistan in 2009; only 28 mil- the war has cost the nation 2,304 lives progress across the board, whether it lion—8.7 percent of the country— so far and ultimately will cost more be the tactical situation on the battle- saw Trump’s. than $1 trillion. field or the capability and compe- The idea of building a nation that It has been a 16-year roller coaster. tence of the Afghan security forces, can stamp out terrorism only makes Initially, things were going swell, the development of governance, both sense if you ignore the fact that sev- then not so swell. Then they were get- at a district and provincial level,” eral of the 9/11 hijackers plotted in ting better, until they weren’t. Now, Major General Richard Mills said in Germany, and that the United States by all accounts, we are locked in a May 2011 after spending a year as has its own homegrown terrorists. bloody stalemate with the Taliban. the senior Marine there. “I think it There is no move by the United States A little more than a month after is important that we ensure that the to attack Germany, or itself. Today’s the invasion, the Taliban were ousted American people understand that terrorists don’t need bases and camps from Kabul. “The Taliban was pretty there is progress being made in a that can be destroyed by drones. entrenched in Afghanistan,” Rich- very difficult war.” They can meet in cyberspace, hidden ard Perle, chairman of the Penta- Yet that ended with Obama’s deci- in kitchens and dens the world over. gon’s Defense Advisory Board, said sion to bring the troops home. He Thousands of troops fighting for November 20, 2001. “Regimes that declared combat over in 2014, cut U.S. decades don’t deal with that. rule by terror and intimidation, when forces by 90 percent, and the Taliban Before winning the White House, that grip is challenged, go a lot faster have been regaining ground ever Trump repeatedly called for the United than we think they will.” since. He, and the American people, States to pull out of Afghanistan. But But Afghanistan’s progress soon had lost the will to keep fighting. The he bent to the will of his troika of gen- slowed, in part because the American war went from a full boil to a steady erals—Kelly, McMaster, and Defense military was preoccupied by a sec- simmer, with U.S. casualties low Secretary Jim Mattis—and his words ond war it had launched in Iraq. The enough to keep fighting ad infinitum. echoed the sunny-side up optimism of breakfast chats became markedly As a result, after a decade of war, his top military officers. less sunny. By early in the Obama the breakfast reports became incred- “The military-industrial complex administration—after nearly eight ible—literally, fiction. “In Afghani- wins,” conservative firebrand and years of war—Marine General John stan, I think we have a tremendous Trump ally Ann Coulter groused fol- Kelly (now Trump’s chief of staff) opportunity…to give the Afghan peo- lowing Trump’s speech. said the United States would not be ple a chance at a future they deserve, Now if it would only start telling able to kill its way to victory. “Chas- which is much better than the horror the truth. n

www.pogo.org/straus 9 An A-10 flies a close-air-support mission over Afghanistan in November 2008.

The Light Attack Trickery? Yet another Air Force effort to kill the A-10

The following piece was first published in August 2017. The original can be found at http://www.pogo.org/straus/issues/weapons/2017/ the-light-attack-trickery.html

BY DAN GRAZIER he Air Force is putting personally attending later this sum- program, lauding a buy of 300 or on a great publicity show mer when the A-29 Super Tucano, so light attack aircraft to relieve the for their impending Light AT-802L Longsword, Textron Scor- expensive operating-cost burden of Attack (OA-X) experiment.1 pion, and AT-6 Wolverine compete to the A-10s, F-16s, and F-15s currently Officially, this small-scale experi- potentially become the newest addi- flying attack missions in permissive mentT is meant only to demonstrate tion to the fleet. air defense environments like Syria, the capabilities of four low-cost, The recent media blitz for this Iraq, and Afghanistan.2 Responding off-the-shelf, lightly armed aircraft summer’s experiment is not coming to the Air Force’s encouragement, against lightly defended enemies out of the blue. For more than two three defense contractors—Sierra like ISIS or the Taliban. Quite unusu- years Air Force headquarters staff Nevada, Textron, and Beechcraft— ally, General David Goldfein, the Air officers and others have been laying started publicity and lobbying cam- Force chief of staff, is planning on the foundation for the light attack paigns for their respective light attack

1 Lara Seligman, “With A-10 End In Sight, U.S. And Allies Eye Light-Attack Fleet,” Aviation Week, July 26, 2017. 2 Mike Pietrucha, “It’s Not About the Airplane: Envisioning the A-X2,” War on the Rocks, May 26, 2016.

10 The Defense Monitor | August-September 2017 offerings. In February this year, Gen- time, the Air Force will request per- riel Command, General Ellen Paw- eral Goldfein suddenly requested an mission to divest increasing numbers likowski, said the A-10 would be $8 million supplemental to fast-track of A-10s to free up funds to purchase “…another airplane that we are sus- his newly announced Light Attack the new aircraft, while using the taining indefinitely.”5 In February Experiment so it could take place justification that it makes the A-10 this year, General Goldfein told Busi- this summer. A month later, Senator redundant. The A-10s will be sent to ness Insider that the A-10 was safe John McCain (R-AZ) put out his 2017 the boneyard where they will quickly until 2021.6 In the following months, “Restoring American Power” defense be scrapped, thus ensuring they can other generals weighed in with sim- plan advocating the 300 OA-X buy.3 never again be brought back into ser- ilarly soothing statements. Neither In June 2017, his Senate Armed Ser- vice. Once the A-10’s demise is a fait the Secretary nor the generals both- U.S. AIR FORCE PHOTO/STAFF SGT. AARON ALLMON vices Committee authorized $1.2 bil- accompli, the light attack plane pro- ered to mention that in September, lion in the FY 2018 budget to start gram will be quietly canceled. This at the very beginning of this cre- the OA-X procurement, though this may seem rather conspiracy-minded, scendo of reassurances, the Air Force money is contingent on the unlikely but the Air Force has repeatedly had already deliberately ended the ending of the sequester cap. attempted to rid itself of the A-10 and contract for re-winging the A-10s at the close air support mission only to just 173 wing sets—instead of exer- Embracing Light Attack for be thwarted by public pressure and cising the contract’s option to re- Political, not Combat Reasons Congressional injunctions. wing the rest of the nine-squadron, It is rather strange to see the Air This dovetails perfectly with the 283-plane fleet, a life-extending fix Force suddenly taking an interest unfolding reality as the Air Force essential to meeting the 2017 Con- in low speed, cheap turboprop and grounds more and more A-10s by gressional mandate to keep the turbofan planes, especially in light deliberately cutting off produc- 283 Warthogs flying. of their having killed a nearly iden- tion of replacement wings (needed Then, at a House Armed Services tical OA-X program in 2008. There to extend A-10 life into the 2030s), Committee hearing this June, the is good reason to believe that, com- zero-funding essential replacement other shoe dropped. In the process of ing on the heels of their do-or-die spares, and underfunding A-10 depot reassuring the Committee about the efforts to fund the $150 million F-35 maintenance. future of the A-10, Air Force Lt. Gen. and $550 million B-21, the Air Force’s Arnold Bunch let it slip that the Air newfound interest in the $20 million An Exercise in PR Duplicity Force planned to sustain six squad- OA-X is not really about saving the Last September Air Force Secretary rons of A-10s. Representative Martha taxpayer a few flying-hour dollars Deborah James announced that, in McSally (R-AZ), a retired A-10 pilot, in the ongoing war budgets. Instead, official enthusiasm for the OA-X appears to be the newest wrinkle in “The Air Force leadership is so intent on getting rid of the Air Force’s relentless campaign to A-10s that, even if re-winging funds are provided, they shut down the A-10 fleet and quash will be unwilling to keep A-10s flying—in direct defiance forever the concept of a dedicated of the 2017 National Defense Authorization Act, which close air support force with truly expert pilots. barred the Air Force from using any money to retire According to several sources any A-10s.” inside the Air Force, the service will push ahead with the light attack tests and eventually select one of the air- deference to Congressional man- caught something the rest of the frames for procurement. The acquisi- dates, the Air Force would delay by committee missed: six A-10 squad- tion of the selected OA-X will then be years the retirement of the A-10.4 rons are three less than the nine dragged out over years. In the mean- In October, the chief of Air Mate- now flying. In other words, the Air

3 Senator John McCain, Restoring American Power: Recommendations for the FY 2018-FY 2022 Defense Budget, January 16, 2017, p. 13. 4 Lara Seligman, “U.S. Air Force Secretary: Service May Delay A-10 Retirement,” Aerospace Daily, September 16, 2016. 5 Andrew Collins, “The Air Force Now Plans To Keep The A-10 Warthog Flying Indefinitely,” Foxtrot Alpha, October 28, 2016. 6 Paul Szoldra, “The Air Force is keeping the beloved A-10 ‘Warthog’ around for at least a few more years,” Business Insider, February 7, 2017.

www.pogo.org/straus 11 Force intended to quietly cut three when then-F-35 program executive been working to convince policy- squadrons. officer Air Force Lt. Gen. Christo- makers that if only they were given In a follow-up formal Request for pher Bogdan said he didn’t want to enough money to buy a big enough Information (RFI), McSally asked the go through with F-35/A-10 fly off, bomber force, they could secure vic- Air Force to detail how, if given fund- preferring instead to test the F-35 by tory from the heavens without any ing by the Congress, they planned itself “in a realistic operational envi- help from forces on the ground.8 In to finish the re-winging project. Air ronment for the CAS mission that the truth, the idea on which the Air Force Force Headquarters responded by Air Force intends the F-35 to do.”7 gained its independence, that aerial saying they were budgeting to keep That statement almost perfectly bombing alone can win wars, has only 173 A-10s (i.e. six squadrons) in encapsulates the longstanding, been proven wrong again and again.9 service through 2030. When and if deeply ingrained culture of indif- Yet rather than adapting to what actu- given the funding needed, the RFI ference to close support within the ally works in combat, the Air Force response says the Air Force must upper ranks of the Air Force, a culture persists in its efforts to organize and now re-compete any new re-winging that dates back to well before WWII. equip itself as if the past 100 years of contract (without mentioning that Hardly anything could be more military history did not exist. they intentionally ended the old con- irrelevant than how the Air Force That history is crystal clear about tract, thereby hitting the taxpayer “intends” to conduct close air sup- what actually works in close sup- with an extra $80 million or so in port. Any preferences of the Air port of ground forces. The landmark new start-up costs). Allegedly select- Force with regards to close air sup- combat achievements of close sup- ing a source would require another port come a distant, hazy second to port are well-documented. Among two years, followed by delivery of the needs of the troops fighting on them are the brilliant contributions the first new wing set in 2022 and the ground. The needs dictated by of the P-47s of Generals Elwood Que- the last in 2029. Bear in mind, this is actual ground combat are the real sada and Frederick Weyland to the to produce an existing replacement crux of the close support debate, Third and Fifth Armies’ blitz across part that was in production at more than 16 wing sets per year until just ten months ago. The Air Force’s RFI response goes on to say that most of “We now have a century’s worth of evidence that almost these slowly arriving replacement all Air Force general officers have no real interest in the wings will be unneeded because close air support mission—and are actively hostile to their recipient A-10s will have been procurement of dedicated, single-mission CAS planes.” replaced, presumably by F-35s. In other words, the Air Force leadership is so intent on getting rid of A-10s that, even if re-winging funds are something the official Air Force has France during WWII; of the First Pro- provided, they will be unwilling to been eager to suppress from early visional Marine Brigade’s Corsairs, keep A-10s flying—in direct defiance Army Air Corps days on. whose extraordinary tactical inte- of the 2017 National Defense Autho- We now have a century’s worth gration with ground Marines was rization Act, which barred the Air of evidence that almost all Air Force critical in preventing the collapse of Force from using any money to retire general officers have no real interest the Pusan Perimeter’s left flank dur- any A-10s. in the close air support mission— ing the Korean War; of the handful and are actively hostile to procure- of A-1 squadrons that saved several The Long, Long Battle for ment of dedicated, single-mission hundred Special Forces camps and Close Air Support CAS planes. Ever since the days of countless long range patrols from Air Force contempt for the close air Billy Mitchell and Giulio Douhet, the being overrun in the jungles of Viet- support mission was on clear dis- famous airpower publicists and theo- nam; of the 144 A-10s that destroyed play during an October 2015 hearing rists of the 1920s, senior airmen have more tactical targets than the rest of

7 Phillip Swarts, “Congresswoman, former pilot, concerned F-35 won’t fill A-10’s role,” Air Force Times, October 22, 2015. 8 Ross Hall, “Inter-war airpower theory and World War II,” E-International Relations, June 28, 2011. 9 Kyle Staron, “The Airpower Partisans Get It Wrong Again,” War on the Rocks, September 17, 2015.

12 The Defense Monitor | August-September 2017 the Gulf War Coalition’s 1,900 fight- als—including the past and the pres- For the troops whose lives depend ers put together; and of the tiny ent chief of staff, and the commander on the close air support mission— half-squadrons of A-10s deployed of Air Combat Command—have all and for those who agree with them to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria that touted the Air Force’s three-pronged that the Air Force is obliged to give have saved American and allied lives approach to close support: upgrading the troops close support that is at for 15 years in hundreds—if not thou- and sustaining the A-10, launching least as good as the A-10 in every sands—of “danger close” firefights.10 The critical common element of these close support achievements— “The troops who have to fight the next war will do so other than adequately armed, maneu- without effective close air support. They will have to verable, and survivable planes—is fight harder to secure their objectives and will be more that for each of these combat successes vulnerable to being overrun in situations where other the pilots responsible were intensive- ground reinforcements are too far away.” ly trained for the primary mission of supporting ground troops. Unfortu- nately, because of the Air Force’s lack of peacetime priority for close sup- the light attack OA-X, and/or shap- future war—the implications of port, that training had to be obtained ing requirements for an AX-2 heavily going along with the wishes of cur- in combat—a most costly and danger- armed follow-on to the A-10.11 Given rent Air Force leaders are clear. Sup- ous place to train—for the three wars the ongoing logistical strangulation porting the OA-X and letting the Air before the Gulf War. But the Gulf War of the A-10 fleet as discussed above, Force short-change the sustainment marked a historic change: for the first we know the first prong is far from of the A-10 fleet will enable the gen- time, the Air Force actually entered a being pursued. The OA-X second erals to eliminate all A-10s within war with an extant cadre of real close prong, according to insiders and the 10 years. That will permanently kill support experts, both pilots and for- available evidence, is destined for any chance of a better A-10 follow- ward controllers. The simple reason a short life after it succeeds as an on force operated by a continuing was that the Air Force now had in in- excuse for getting rid of the A-10.12 community of pilots and controllers ventory a fleet of specialized mission As for the AX-2 specialized CAS who are true experts in providing close support aircraft—the A-10— mission follow-on to the A-10, the first-class close support. The troops and the pilots and ground controllers Chief of Staff’s recent interview with who have to fight the next war will singularly focused on that mission. Aviation Week pours a bucket of cold do so without effective close air sup- This in contrast to the Air Force’s tra- water on that third prong. In that port. They will have to fight harder ditional and preferred multi-mission interview General Goldfein ignores to secure their objectives and will be training syllabus, an approach that the clear lessons of close support more vulnerable to being overrun in invariably relegates close support to combat from WWII to Syria, explic- situations where other ground rein- lowest priority. itly downplaying the single-mission forcements are too far away. CAS platform and the specialized This is why any prudent Penta- Professing Love for CAS pilot while discoursing at length gon observer should be extremely While Ensuring Its Demise about future “families of systems,” suspicious of the Air Force’s motives To demonstrate the Air Force’s “sin- “21st Century close-air-support dis- behind the OA-X program.14 It sim- cere” commitment to close support, cussion,” and “moving us forward ply does not fit within their own self- for the past year a parade of gener- into new ways of doing business.”13 image. So what is really going on? n

10 Rebecca Grant, “Quesada the Conqueror,” Air Force Magazine, April 2003; Combat Logistics Support Squadron, “A-10 Gulf War Statistics,” 1998. 11 Jeff Schogol, “Welsh: The Air Force cares about close-air support,” Air Force Times, September 15, 2015; Valerie Insinna, “US Air Force Chief Lends Support to Light Attack Aircraft Buy,” Defense News, January 18, 2017. 12 Dave Majumdar, “Is the U.S. Air Force’s OA-X Light Attack Aircraft Really Going to Happen?” The National Interest, July 3, 2017. 13 Lara Seligman, “Air Force Weighs Scrapping A-10 Replacement,” Aerospace Daily, July 17, 2017. 14 Leigh Giangreco, “USAF seeks two new close-air support aircraft,” Flight Global, July 24, 2016.

www.pogo.org/straus 13 Nuclear Modernization Under Obama and Trump: Costly, Mismanaged, Unnecessary

The following piece was first published in August 2017. The original can be found at http://www.pogo.org/straus/issues/nuclear- security/2017/nuclear-modernization-under-obama-and-trump.html

BY LYDIA DENNETT production facilities. It’s an effort that will receive an update under the cur- he United States maintains began under President Obama and is rent plan. In fact, several different the strongest nuclear weap- likely to cost taxpayers over $1.5 tril- nuclear warhead types have already ons arsenal in the world. lion over the next 30 years.4 begun life extension programs to We currently have over replace their components and add 1,700 strategic and deadly nuclear new capabilities. Those that are in Twarheads deployed at bases across process have followed a simpler, the globe, with thousands more in more traditional approach to modern- storage plus thousands more intact My first order as President was to renovate ization that involves replacing aging 1 and modernize our nuclear arsenal. It is now and awaiting dismantlement. far stronger and more powerful than ever components but leaving the basic It cannot be overstated how truly before. nuclear explosive package the same.6 terrifying their capacity for destruc- For example, the Navy’s W76-1 tion is. Each warhead is hundreds of nuclear warhead, which is deployed times more powerful than the nuclear on submarine-launched ballistic mis- bombs dropped on Hiroshima and siles, has been upgraded to include Nagasaki.2 And that was before the a “super-fuze” device to make these United States began the largest and But if nuclear deterrence is the warheads significantly more accu- most expensive nuclear moderniza- goal, a $1.5 trillion modernization rate so that they will explode close tion effort the world has ever seen. effort isn’t necessary. “[T]he thing enough to hardened targets—like In one of President Trump’s about a deterrent capability is it does Russian inter-continental ballis- responses to North Korea’s recent not matter how old it is,” the Com- tic missile silos—and destroy them nuclear posturing he referenced mander of US Strategic Command completely. Even with the addition plans to “renovate and modernize told the Senate Armed Services Com- of this new capability, the W76 life our nuclear arsenal.”3 He was talk- mittee this past April. “It just matters extension program is expected to fin- ing about an effort to maintain and whether it works….The stuff that we ish on time in 2020 and will only cost upgrade the nuclear warheads them- have today will work.”5 approximately $4 billion. That’s likely selves, their delivery systems (like Each leg of the nuclear triad, which because the changes were modest submarines and planes), and the refers to the three ways the United and didn’t include any modifications infrastructure at nuclear weapons States is able to fire nuclear weapons, to the nuclear explosive package.7

1 Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, Federation of American Scientists, “Status of World Nuclear Forces.” 2 Ashley Lutz, “This chart shows the terrifying power of modern nuclear bombs,” Business Insider, June 19, 2012. 3 Peter Baker, “Trump Doubles Down on Threats Against North Korea as Nuclear Tensions Escalate,” The New York Times, August 10, 2017. 4 Arms Control Association, “The Trillion (and a Half) Dollar Triad?” August 18, 2017. 5 Testimony of General John E. Hyten, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command, before the Senate Committee on Armed Services, on “Unites States Strategic Command Programs,” April 4, 2017. 6 Stephen Young, Union of Concerned Scientists, “New NNSA Stockpile Plan Same as the Old Plan: Problematic,” April 11, 2016. 7 Hans M. Kristensen, Matthew McKinzie, Theodore A. Postol, “How US nuclear force modernization is undermining strategic stability: The burst- height compensating super-fuze,” The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, March 1, 2017.

14 The Defense Monitor | August-September 2017 These enhancements are just the Yet, the NNSA still plans to spend both the new warhead designs and beginning of the nuclear modern- billions of dollars on new facilities the new facilities, shows that addi- ization plan, a plan that extends far capable of producing these nuclear tional oversight is needed. Earlier beyond the warheads themselves. But components for weapons that may this year, the GAO released a report there are a lot of reasons to question not need them. The Government on the modernization numbers and what projects are being advanced in Accountability Office (GAO) is also found NNSA’s plans do not meet the name of a “modern nuclear arse- concerned about the purpose of these realistic budget estimates.15 nal.” The NNSA plans to take a more facilities, asking the NNSA to clarify The NNSA’s long history of con- aggressive and expensive approach to specifically what the facilities will tractor mismanagement has led to modernizing some warhead classes do and why we need them, and to things like budget misalignments, despite the fact that doing so will not develop a complete and reliable cost plans to build facilities without a improve the nuclear deterrence capa- estimate for each proposed project.12 clear mission or complete design, and bility or make the United States any NNSA’s nuclear modernization significant delays in the more ambi- safer. This will be incredibly expen- project overall could use some justifi- tious aspects of the nuclear mod- sive in and of itself, and will require cation. For example, future warhead ernization plan.16 This could leave huge, expensive new facilities to sup- life extension programs will involve the NNSA without the resources to port that work.8 The agency has pro- brand new nuclear explosive pack- fulfill their basic mission: ensuring posed building several new facilities ages that have never been tested. the US nuclear stockpile is safe and to manufacture hundreds of new These new packages are part of a secure. “Program instability poses a plutonium and uranium cores for the plan to replace four different missile- significant threat to NNSA’s mission bombs. The NNSA’s cost estimates carried warheads, two delivered by critical capabilities,” an independent for these facilities have skyrocketed submarine and two land-based, with advisory group concluded in their and would not be necessary for a three different warheads.13 They are review of the nuclear modernization more scaled-down, straight forward known as interoperable warheads plan.17 modernization plan.9 because they will have a common The NNSA has not proven them- While certain components of nuclear explosive package despite selves to be effective stewards of tax- nuclear weapons must be remanu- being part of different legs of the triad. payer dollars, yet they ask Congress factured and replaced, the plutonium Development of the first interoper- to hand over billions of dollars before cores have a lifetime of 150 years and able warhead began in 2012 but was demonstrating what capabilities they can be reused, dramatically reducing halted in 2014, partially because the actually need and before even sub- the need to build a brand new pluto- Navy didn’t particularly want a new mitting an accurate cost estimate. nium pit production facility.10 As for warhead design.14 Despite their res- It’s time to take a look at how much the uranium portion of nuclear war- ervations, the NNSA plans to restart of this nuclear modernization plan heads, sources have told POGO that their work on the interoperable war- is truly necessary for maintaining hundreds of warheads going through heads in 2020. an effective nuclear deterrent and the life extension programs have not A peek under the hood of the how much is just expensive window required remanufactured uranium agency’s cost estimates for the entire dressing designed to give nuclear components.11 modernization effort, which includes contractors something to do. n

8 Project On Government Oversight, Uranium Processing Facility: When You're in a Hole, Just Stop Digging, September 25, 2013. (Hereinafter Uranium Processing Facility: When You're in a Hole, Just Stop Digging) 9 Uranium Processing Facility: When You're in a Hole, Just Stop Digging 10 Letter from Linton Brooks, Administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, to Senator John Warner, Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, regarding pit lifetimes, November 28, 2006. 11 Project On Government Oversight, “Allegation Weakens Case for $5 Billion Energy Department Facility,” October 28, 2010. 12 Government Accountability Office, DOE Project Management: NNSA Needs to Clarify Requirements for Its Plutonium Analysis Project at Los Alamos, August 2016; Government Accountability Office, High Risk Series: Progress on Many High-Risk Areas, While Substantial Efforts Needed on Others, Febru- ary 2017, p. 465. (Hereinafter Government Accountability Office High-Risk Series) 13 Union of Concerned Scientists, Bad Math on New Nuclear Weapons: The Costs of the 3+2 Plan Outweigh Its Benefits, October 2015. 14 Memorandum from Robert O. Work, Under Secretary of the Navy, to Chairman of the Nuclear Weapons Council, regarding the Navy perspective of W78/W88-1 Life Extension Program, September 27, 2012. 15 Government Accountability Office, National Nuclear Security Administration: Action Needed to Address Affordability of Nuclear Modernization Programs, April 2017. 16 Government Accountability Office High-Risk Series 17 JASON, Technical Consideration for the Evolving U.S. Nuclear-Weapons Stockpile: Executive Summary, January 2015, p. 5.

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1 6 Generally Concerning BY MANDY SMITHBERGER

8 Afghanistan, Sunny-Side Up 15 years of too-good-to-be-true breakfasts BY MARK THOMPSON

10 The Light Attack Trickery? Yet another Air Force effort to kill the A-10 BY DAN GRAZIER The Military’s Technology Leadership Problem 14 Nuclear Modernization Under Obama and Trump: Leadership, not technology, failures are the Costly, Mismanaged, Unnecessary root of most wasteful Pentagon programs BY LYDIA DENNETT BY DAN GRAZIER & LIZ HEMPOWICZ

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