KAZAKHSTAN: NEW POLITICAL REALITIES

SPECIAL REPORT | MAY 2019 http://eurac.tv/9Qi5

With the support of : NEW POLITICAL REALITIES

SPECIAL REPORT | MAY 2019 http://eurac.tv/9Qi5

Kazakhstan’s first president surprisingly resigned on 19 March and announced that the Speaker of the Senate, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, will serve as interim leader before the next presidential election, which will take place on 9 June. At the same time, Nazarbayev retained certain powers. The Kazakh transition seems unique of its kind and is attracting international attention. Contents

Nazarbayev: I stepped down in the interest of the people of Kazakhstan 4

At Nur-Sultan forum, leaders advise focus on education 6

EU puts hope in Kazakhstan in helping unlock the WTO knot 8

Kazakhstan takes its presidential elections seriously 10

What next for Kazakhstan after the elections? 12 4 MAY 2019 | SPECIAL REPORT | KAZAKHSTAN: NEW POLITICAL REALITIES | EURACTIV

Nazarbayev: I stepped down in the interest of the people of Kazakhstan

By Georgi Gotev reporting from Nur-Sultan | EURACTIV.com

Nazarbayev, seated in the panel but better visible from the screen, speaks at the opening of the Astana Economic Forum 2019. [Georgi Gotev]

he first , leader before the next presidential Nazarbayev retains sweeping Nursultan Nazarbayev, was the election. powers in the country of 18 million Tmain speaker and the centre On 9 April, Tokayev set 9 June as the people as the official “national leader”, of attention at the 12th edition of the date of the early presidential election chair of its security council and head Astana Economic Forum on Thursday and said the vote was “absolutely of Nur Otan. He hasn’t disappeared (16 May). To a wide international needed” to ensure “continuity, from public view and has represented audience, he provided explanations predictability and stability”. Kazakhstan at the recent Belt and for his recent decision to step down. Seven candidates are running Road summit in China. for the election, but diplomats say The Astana Economic Forum is a On 19 March, Nazarbayev Tokayev is likely to win by some 70% brainchild of Nazarbayev, one of many. surprisingly resigned and announced of the votes. The country has invited The event is a talk show at a very high that the Speaker of the Senate, Kassym- international observers, including Jomart Tokayev, will serve as interim from EU countries. Continued on Page 5 MAY 2019 | SPECIAL REPORT | KAZAKHSTAN: NEW POLITICAL REALITIES | EURACTIV 5

Continued from Page 4 As a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, Kazakhstan level, with heads of states, leaders indirectly suffers from Western of international organisations and sanctions against Russia. Nobel prize winners, as well as panel “The time has come to discuss the discussions at a more expert level. way out from the geopolitical crisis As usual, Nazarbayev was at the between USA, China, Russia and the centre of attention while President EU,” Nazarbayev told the audience, Tokayev was present without taking in which these countries were the floor. represented by their ambassadors Speaking in Russian, as usual, or even higher guests. He repeated Nazarbayev said the situation in the that Kazakhstan is making its capital world was worrying, mentioning available for such talks. the US-China and the US-EU trade He didn’t mention the name of the disputes, the rise of populism which capital, which was recently named he called “a permanent trend”, and the Nur-Sultan after him. sanctions confrontation, particularly Nazarbayev further explained visible between the US and Russia. his decision to leave the post of To this, he added the risk of head of state. He argued that since a collapse of nuclear deterrence Kazakhstan’s independence from the agreements and the resulting arms former USSR, the results were good race, saying that the tendency was both on the internal and external field. worrying and wouldn’t bring any good But he added that transition of power to anybody. was ongoing, in accordance with the Nazarbayev said dialogue was Constitution, “in a calm, peaceful needed between the USA, Russia, way”. China and the EU, calling them “I am grateful to my fellow heads “those on whom the fate of mankind of state, politicians from the entire depends”. Another idea he expressed world, who wrote to me, who called was the creation of a “common me, to express support for this step,” security territory” on the basis of the he said, speaking about his decision to OSCE members. leave office. A third idea he mentioned was He said the presidential elections an “investment dialogue” between would guarantee the country’s future the Eurasian Economic Union, of sustainable development, and that which Kazakhstan is a member, the he believed Tokayev was the best- EU and the Shanghai Cooperation prepared candidate. As for his part, he Organisation. said he would continue to participate The first president of Kazakhstan in “the strategic vectors of the reminded that his country has development of the country, including served as an effective platform for the internal and foreign policy”, by negotiating difficult international supporting the new president. issues, and suggested that it could Diplomats say Nazarbayev was very again be the host of initiatives of the likely to remain the dominant figure kind he outlined. and that by stepping aside he was in a “It is necessary to move from the better situation should the country’s unproductive regime of sanctions to economic situation worsen. direct dialogue between the leaders of the key countries of the world,” Nazarbayev said. 6 MAY 2019 | SPECIAL REPORT | KAZAKHSTAN: NEW POLITICAL REALITIES | EURACTIV

At Nur-Sultan forum, leaders advise focus on education

By Georgi Gotev reporting from Nur-Sultan | EURACTIV.com

Family photo of the Astana Economic Forum high level participants. [Astana Economic Forum]

azakhstan is investing in give a chance to a younger generation first president of Kazakhstan. human capital and plans to to pursue the ambitious goals. The Managing Director of the Kbecome one of the world’s 30 This year’s AEF was unprecedented. International Monetary Fund, most advanced nations by 2050. At a In two days (16-17 May), more than 50 Christine Lagarde, was the only female recent conference in the capital Nur- sessions and events took place – record speaker at the opening panel. She Sultan, leaders and economists offered numbers in its 12-year history. For the made the audience laugh and applaud advice, valid also for other countries as first time, students and youth had the when the moderator told her to use a well: to focus on education. opportunity to take part in AEF. rostrum situated at the right side of Nazarbayev announced that digital the scene, while all previous speakers The ‘Astana Economic Forum transformation is changing the face had used the left one. ” (AEF), now in its 12th edition, is of the country’s economy, and mobile “Thank you very much Mr sometimes called ‘the Davos of creative human capital is becoming Moderator, and I hope that this Central Asia’. On 16 May, the first the main driver of growth. “By 2030, particular podium is not exclusively President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan about 375 million people around the reserved for women, because it will Nazarbayev provided explanations for world will need to undergo training his recent decision to step down and and change their profession,” said the Continued on Page 7 MAY 2019 | SPECIAL REPORT | KAZAKHSTAN: NEW POLITICAL REALITIES | EURACTIV 7

Continued from Page 6 significant”, the IMF chief stressed. on the Kazakh market, also focused The President of Armenia, Armen on education and human capital. He not be very well used today,” she said. Sarkissian, a computer scientist by said education wasn’t able to provide Further on in her speech, Lagarde background, focused on education competent personnel, especially soft returned to the role of women in in his speech. Speaking about the and digital skills. He quoted research society, commending Kazakhstan for acceleration of events, he gave as an according to which almost 90% of being a leader in the region. example the capital of Kazakhstan, pupils and students don’t like their “I’m pleased to say that through now called Nur-Sultan, which was textbooks, and a vast majority of the hard work of the government and built very fast in the steppes, at what is teachers don’t like their job. private companies, female labour the heart of Eurasia. This is why his bank was providing force participation in Kazakhstan is He built on the notion of a training to its employees, and life- now at 65% which is the highest in “globally integrated world”, which in long learning was not an empty the region and a benchmark for every his words hasn’t started now, but at the word. 36,000 IT specialist work with country in Central Asia,” she said. historic period of the Silk Road, and on Sberbank, and every day the company Lagarde said the IMF had published preparing today’s children for the 21st is recruiting 5,000 people, he said. on the occasion of this forum the century, as the locomotive of progress Risto Siilasmma, CEO of Nokia, report “Promoting inclusive growth in his words would be the human agreed and said that along those same in the Caucasus and Central Asia”, being, “the creative man”. lines, Nokia, decided to train not just which she said would be “formidable “There is going to be another their engineers or management in reading” for those interested in this revolution. It will not be the Fourth machine learning but every single one prospect. Industrial Revolution to be followed by of their 100,000 employees: “every In addition to the policy of a fifth one, but we’re entering a phase single receptionist, janitor, secretary increasing the role of women, the IMF of rapid revolutionary evolution”, in up to the CEO. And there is a level of chief focused on three more areas. which “the world will be changing urgency in all of this”. She insisted that fiscal policy every day”, he said. The challenge, he should balance debt concerns with said, was to prepare for that. critical initiatives in health, education The Prime Minister of Georgia, and infrastructure, all three conducive Mamuka Bakhtadze gave as an to increase productivity. Here, she said example the experience of his country the IMF would continue its support ‘s comprehensive education reform. to the region through technical He said that this had been “the assistance and capacity development bravest step” since Georgia gained programmes with the proposal to independence. actually set up a training centre in this “This new education reform is, I region. would say, revolutionary, a real game- Lagarde said the IMF believes that changing undertaking for our people corruption needs to be addressed and for our future generations,” he head-on in the region, her words said. triggering another round of applause. Under the new legislation, he Further, Lagarde said that more said, 6% of GDP in Georgia would efforts were needed so that the be allocated to education, which is financial sector would be sound and 25% of the country’s budget. Also, its services widely accessible. She according to the new legislation, every said that only 45% of adults in the government would be obliged to invest Caucasus and Central Asia countries in human capital had a banking account, which is “We have to understand that in our almost 20% lower than the average in competitive world only the ones who other emerging markets. have open, prolific minds, information “If Central Asia can harness and the ability to think out of the box, the power of Fintech as emerging will be the ones to create the added economies in other regions have value for our economies,” he said. done, the potential gains for women, Herman Gref, CEO of Sberbank, for young people and for the poor are a Russian bank which is the second 8 MAY 2019 | SPECIAL REPORT | KAZAKHSTAN: NEW POLITICAL REALITIES | EURACTIV

EU puts hope in Kazakhstan in helping unlock the WTO knot

By Georgi Gotev reporting from Nur-Sultan | EURACTIV.com

Ekaterina Mayorova on the screen. Luc Devigne is the fourth panelist from the right. [Georgi Gotev]

t the Astana Economic team has blocked new appointments ‘NO PLAN B’ Forum, a representative of to its trade court, which is now rapidly Athe EU hinted that the host running out of judges, meaning it will Speaking in Astana on 16 May, country, Kazakhstan, could play a be unable to issue binding rulings Luc Devigne, deputy managing role in helping to bridge differences in trade disputes. Trump has even director Europe and Central Asia in over the reform of the World Trade threatened to withdraw the United the European External Action Service Organisation. States from the Geneva-based WTO. (EEAS), made clear that the issues The European Union has published were serious, as in his words, there is US President Donald Trump’s proposals for reform in different areas “no Plan B”. administration says the WTO is of the WTO that it has agreed with “From an EU perspective, in dysfunctional because it has failed to China, India and other countries, 20 years international trade has hold China to account for not opening hoping to overcome U.S. objections changed more than the WTO itself. up its economy as envisaged when that have thrown the WTO into crisis. But there is no need to throw away Beijing joined the body in 2001. The US is, however, unmoved by the To force reform at the WTO, Trump’s EU’s efforts. Continued on Page 9 MAY 2019 | SPECIAL REPORT | KAZAKHSTAN: NEW POLITICAL REALITIES | EURACTIV 9

Continued from Page 8 Linscott recalled that the organisation had undergone other the system because there is no plan crises in the past. He also argued that B. There is no alternative to the WTO, the core rules of the system put in there is nothing similar in terms of place by 1995 remain sound. However, effectiveness and we should be really in his words, these rules had not been cautious here”, he said. substantially extended and updated He further said the EU was since then, with a few exceptions. “extremely worried” by the aggravated “By assessing what might work and tensions “and a shift by certain what might not, I think it should be members, or a certain member”, to reassuring to note that the multilateral go to unilateral measures. “Only trading system has faced crises in concerted measures can prevent the the past. And it has proven flexible system from collapse,” said Devigne. enough to respond when driven by “We are engaged in WTO reform, we forces of creativity”, the former US want success, there is no alternative, trade official said. there is no second trading system”, Devigne repeated. “Kazakhstan will ‘WHAT DID WE GET?’ have a great responsibility in this regard. Building bridges is important, Ekaterina Mayorova, director of President Nazarbayev reminded us of the department for trade negotiations the big ambitions of the country in of the Russian ministry of economy, this regard, and we support them”, he said her country had joined the World said. Trade Organisation with the hope that Indeed, the first President of it could participate in the elaboration Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, of new rules. Russia joined WTO in has offered his country’s capital as 2011 after a record-long accession a platform where the US, China and process. Russia could solve their disputes. “We regret that reality doesn’t Moreover, WTO members have really correspond to our expectations,” agreed that the organisation’s next she said. ministerial conference will take place “Instead of stability of our access to from 8 to 11 June 2020 in Astana. The international markets, we were faced dates were endorsed at an 18 October with more protectionism,” Mayorova meeting of the WTO’s General Council. said, adding that, furthermore, Russia This may be interpreted as a major itself was faced with sanctions and success for Kazakhstan, a country that that a “key partner” used measures gained its independence in the early from the time of the Cold War. 1990s and became the 162nd member “We paid an entry ticket, but what of WTO on 30 November 2015. did we get in exchange?” she asked.

‘SOUL SEARCHING’

Mark Linscott, a Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council, who has spent most of his career as a US trade representative, with the last two years in Central Asia, offered insight into Washington’s position. “At this point in time, I think the Trump Administrations has definitely urged some soul searching at the WTO,” he said. 10 MAY 2019 | SPECIAL REPORT | KAZAKHSTAN: NEW POLITICAL REALITIES | EURACTIV

Kazakhstan takes its presidential elections seriously

By Georgi Gotev | EURACTIV.com

A young Kazakh activist distributing leaflets for candidate Amangeldy Taspikhov, a union leader. [Georgi Gotev]

azakhs will vote for a new “Although my mandate had not the present amount of $90 billion, President on 9 June and, expired, and I could be a candidate which he said was a “solid amount” for Kfor the first time since the again, being sure 100% that I would the 18-million strong nation. country’s independence, Nursultan be elected in the same way, changes The second programme of Nazarbayev is not running. Diplomats are needed. A new approach, a new independent Kazakhstan, in say the winner will certainly be generation is needed. I am sure that Nazarbayev’s words, was on Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, but six other the new team, the new generation, will infrastructure. candidates have joined the race. bring in ”. In Soviet times, all roads and He said Kazakhstan was rich railroads were heading North, to Speaking at the Astana Economic in natural resources, which is why Russia, while in present days the Forum, Nazarbayev said he could have under Soviet time it only extracted country is part of the Silk Road and run again and won by a large majority. them and there was no processing. a lot of transport infrastructure in “I participated in five elections, and After independence, an industrial the direction East-West. $30 billion never obtained results under 85%,” he programme was put in place and a said and continued: special reserve fund was created, to Continued on Page 11 MAY 2019 | SPECIAL REPORT | KAZAKHSTAN: NEW POLITICAL REALITIES | EURACTIV 11

Continued from Page 10 elections. The ODIHR mission is led by were spent on such infrastructure, Ambassador Urszula Gacek and including 14.000 km of roads, 2,500 consists of a core team of 12 experts km of railroads, two seaports on the based in Nur-Sultan (as the capital was Caspian and the dry port of Khorgos at re-named after Nazarbayev stepped the border with China, he said. down). ODIHR has requested OSCE This project is already bringing participating states to send 24 long- good dividends, the first President of term observers and 300 short-term Kazakhstan said. observers. “Next – this work has to continue”, Approximately 16 observers from he said, adding that the next leadership foreign countries are also included must continue, focusing on improving in the list of observers, representing the living standards. the central electoral authorities of “We have finances, we have Armenia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Malaysia, managers, and this should be, in my Moldova, Latvia, Russia and Turkey. view, the goal of the future leaders”, The Bulgarian ambassador to he said, before cracking a joke about a Kazakhstan, Vassil Petkov, told certain confusion in having “the first EURACTIV that the Bulgarian MPs President, then the President”. “ who will come as observers will also There will be no duplication, There use the opportunity to meet with their is one President, and he is the leader”, Kazakhs colleagues. he said to big applause. The accreditation of observers Tokayev was present but did not from other countries and international take the floor. organisations will be open until 3 June. Tokayev took over as head of state after Nazarbayev surprisingly resigned on 19 March. Born in 1953, Tokayev is a career diplomat and a polyglot: He is fluent in Kazakh, Russian, English and Chinese and has knowledge of French. He has served, among other positions, as director general of the Office in Geneva, and as a personal representative of the UN Secretary-General to the Conference on Disarmament. Nazarbayev described him as “the best prepared” among the candidates. Six other candidates are running and apparently, all are running campaigns, with billboards on boulevards and distribution of leaflets. The Astana Times announced on Friday (24 May) that the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has accredited 125 international observers, including 22 long-term observers from the Election Observation Mission of the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) for the 12 MAY 2019 | SPECIAL REPORT | KAZAKHSTAN: NEW POLITICAL REALITIES | EURACTIV

OPINION

DISCLAIMER: All opinions in this column reflect the views of the author(s), not of EURACTIV.COM Ltd. What next for Kazakhstan after the elections?

By Eli Hadzhieva

Nursultan Nazarbayev [L] and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the opening of the Astana Economc Forum, 16 May 2019. [Website of the Astana Economic Forum]

he next President of Kazakhstan The resignation of Kazakhstan’s the country’s founding father. will have to oversee that there long-standing leader Nursultan Nazarbayev is often likened to Tis no backsliding in economic, Nazarbayev on 19 March is seen by Turkey’s Atatürk for his success to gain social and political reforms, and many as a step in the right direction his country’s independence from the reassure international partners that for the country’s democratic Soviet Union, his secular, modernising the external policy of the country development. and reformist ideas, his visionary plans remains unchanged, writes Eli And the snap elections on 9 for the socio- Hadzieva. June called by the interim President of Kazakhstan, his nation-building Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who replaced efforts and his peaceful foreign policy. Eli Hadzhieva is Director of Dialogue Nazarbayev following constitutional The task bestowed upon him was for Europe procedure, are the right call to determine a legitimate successor to Continued on Page 13 MAY 2019 | SPECIAL REPORT | KAZAKHSTAN: NEW POLITICAL REALITIES | EURACTIV 13

Continued from Page 12 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange for cargo to Afghanistan, which was – demonstrates the country’s extended in 2018, enabling the US to not an easy one. In an era, where most aspirations to become a regional use two Kazakh ports as a transit route. former Soviet Republics struggled financial centre. These economic and Following the elections on 9 June, with conflicts threatening their social transformations are guided by the next President will face important territorial integrity, he managed to a vision to make Kazakhstan one of challenges, the first one being to delimitate Kazakhstan’s borders with the top 30 developed countries in the ensure a smooth transition. Then he giant neighbours, such as Russia world by 2050. will have to oversee that there is no and China, while striking contracts While continuing to have good backsliding in economic, social and with international companies, which relations with Moscow as part of political reforms, re-establish trust for helped develop the country’s natural the Eurasian Economic Union, international partners and continue resources. Kazakhstan also engaged in its own the peaceful relations with the main Despite the country’s proximity nation-building efforts. Russian is still actors having stakes in this region of to the Islamic Republics of Iran one of the two official languages in the key geostrategic importance. and Afghanistan, secularism, Caspian state, where ethnic Russians multiculturalism and religious constitute 20% of the population. At tolerance became the motto of the same time the , Kazakhstan, where 125 minorities co- which was nearly extinct during exist peacefully. While the majority the Soviet time, has been promoted of the Kazakh population is Muslim, and is widely used in schools and 26% of Kazakhs practice Christianity administrations. While the Soviet and a small part of the population legacy played well for Kazakh women, follows Judaism. The Kazakh state not whose labour force participation is a only guarantees religious freedom in remarkable 65%, its gulags, famines its Constitution but it also promotes and nuclear weapon tests are still vivid it internationally by hosting the in the memory of the people. During Congress of Leaders of World and the Soviet period in the early 1930s, Traditional Religions. Even during the nearly 40% of ethnic Kazakhs starved month of Ramadan, cafes, restaurants to death at collective farms, where and bars in Kazakh cities, such as they were forced to work. Almaty, are crowded with people. As with Russia, Kazakhstan has The modernity of the Kazakh good relationships with its south- capital Nur-sultan (formerly Astana) eastern neighbour China in the built from scratch by international framework of Shanghai Cooperation architects, symbolises the rapid Organisation. The Kazakh state is economic development of the country seen as a buckle in the Beijing-led Belt whose GDP rose from -11% in 1991 to and Road Initiative, due to its logistics an average of 6% in the 2010s. Even and infrastructure networks. in the aftermath of an economic The country is also in close downturn, caused by plummeting oil cooperation with the West. Being prices and indirect effects of sanctions a member of the Organisation for imposed on Russia, the country has Security and Cooperation in Europe maintained its growth rate at 4%. and a non-permanent member of the Long-term plans are put in place UN Security Council in 2017-2018, to develop a digitalised and green Kazakhstan signed an Enhanced economy in order to reduce reliance Cooperation and Partnership on raw materials, to enhance the Agreement with the EU in 2015. The private sector and foreign investment, EU recognises the importance of to support the SME sector and to the region with a recent strategy, achieve the full potential of human which allocates EUR 1,1 billion to capital. The opening of the Astana development cooperation with Central International Stock Exchange last Asia. Since 2010, Kazakhstan and the year – in cooperation with NASDAQ U.S. have an agreement on transit For information on EURACTIV Special Reports...

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