Akershus Eiendom The Norwegian Commercial Property Market Market Report Market Spring 2018Spring
Spring 2018
The Norwegian Commercial Property Market
This market report is intended to provide an overview of the Norwegian property market. The report highlights important trends and gives specific examples of transactions in the leasing and investment markets, important new property developments, etc.
This report is intended for general information and is based upon our own material which we believe to be reliable or material supplied to us. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy and completeness, we cannot offer any guarantee that factual errors may not have occurred. Akershus Eiendom takes no responsibility for any damages or loss incurred owing to the inaccuracy or incorrectness of this report. This report was last edited on March 13th 2018.
For further information please contact Akershus Eiendom AS. Comments, suggestions or questions regarding the contents and presentation of this report are welcome at [email protected]
Table of Contents
6 Main Points
Macro Economics 8 The Norwegian Economy
The Oslo Office Market 12 Overview of the Market 14 Rent Levels 18 Survey of Relocation Patterns 20 Vacancy 24 Development
30 The Investment Market
34 Regional Property Markets
42 International Office Markets
46 The Retail Market
50 The Hotel Market
54 The Logistics Market
58 The Residential Market
61 Definitions
62 Akershus Eiendom AS Main Points 6
Main Points
• Oslo office rents rose slightly in 2017, but • The 2017 commercial property • The retail market has seen relatively low the growth was limited to a few areas; the transaction volume ended at close to activity compared to other segments CBD, Skøyen, Lysaker, and Nydalen. We NOK 90 billion. This is the second highest throughout 2017, and the property values forecast 5-10 % growth in the same areas volume recorded and at the same time are perceived to be more uncertain, as throughout 2018. a record-high number of individual e-commerce trends are the most discussed transactions. The investment market has in the industry. Consumer confidence • Our annual survey of Oslo office users’ continued its strong pace in Q1 2018 and remains strong, and year-on-year retail moving patterns show strength in the we expect solid volumes going forward. sales volume increased by 2.2 % in January. CBD, which retains most of its tenants and also draws in more tenants from the • Office prime yield still stands at 3.75 %. • The logistics market saw a yield shift western office areas. Several Q4-transactions confirmed this for prime assets late 2017, while the and interest from both international leasing market remains stable. Logistics • Oslo has a low-to-moderate office and domestic buyers is strong. Equity- is currently in focus for many investors. construction volume for 2018-19, which is based investors dominate the prime yield This is both due to the consumption- somewhat surprising given the relatively segments, while closed-ended funds are transport focus of the Norwegian solid demand side. We see some more most active in the fringe areas. logistics market in general, and to the speculative construction, and forecast a perception that e-commerce growth significantly higher volume for 2020-21. • In Stavanger, Bergen and Trondheim, fuels a need for new logistics stock. both the investment markets and the • The January 2018 Oslo office vacancy leasing situation is improving. They see • The Norwegian hotel market remained was 6.5 %, slightly down over 2017. Our less interest from international buyers, solid in 2017, but the strong growth from forecast is for vacancy to keep falling but many domestic and local investors 2015-16 was not repeated. Domestic for two years, mainly due to a low or keep the transaction markets active. business travel is now the prime source negative net added office stock. The markets are not as affected by the for growth, and this indicates that the housing market stagnation as Oslo. tourist boom, linked to the currency depreciation, might have peaked. I Macro Economics 8
The Norwegian Economy
2017 was a turnaround year for the reached, as the oil/gas investments was Norwegian unemployment decreased to Norwegian economy. Driven by a highly 6 % of mainland GDP in 2017. DNB expects 4.2 % in 2017, from 4.7 %. It is estimated expansive fiscal and monetary policy, a the investments to increase with 7 % this by SSB that it will decline slowly over the weak krone, low wage growth and strong year, and 8 % increase in 2019 and a slower coming years to 3.7 % in 2020. In 2017, growth in house building, the growth is growth in 2020 with a 4 % increase; SSB the population grew with 37,300 people in now returning. Interest rates might start mostly agrees. As for other sectors, DNB Norway or 0.7 %. Nominal wages increased rising this year, but most economists expect expects that especially the service sector will by 2.3 % in 2017, SSB forecasts a rise of 2.9 % them to remain low for some time ahead. increase their investments. DNBs nominal in 2018 and 3.5 % in 2019. Statistics Norway (SSB) expects the rates to oil price estimates are for 2018, 61 USD, 68 be kept low until early 2019, while many USD in 2019 and 80-76 USD in 2020-2021. CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding others expect an increase late 2018. In early energy products (CPI-ATE) were in January March 2018, Norges Bank lowered the key Traditional export growth in 2017 was 1.1 % and CPI before adjustments 1.6 % as target inflation rate from 2.5 % to 2 %, in line 2.2 %. SSB Expects traditional export growth well. Oslo Stock Exchange (OSEBX) has so with other developed countries. for 2018-2020 to be between 4.1 % and 4.7 % far in 2018 (early-March) increased with p.a. 1.8 %. According to SSB, the Norwegian mainland economy expanded by 1.8 % in 2017. For The household savings rate estimate for 2018, it is estimated that GDP will grow with 2017 was 7.3 % and for 2018 the SSB forecast 2.4 %, and in 2019 GDP growth is forecasted is 7.2 %. According to SSB, residential prices to be slightly lower, at 2.3 %. rose by 5.0 % from 2016 to 2017, and the forecast for 2018 is a fall of 2.8 %. DNB and The oil and gas industry investment volume, SSB expect the housing investment volume having peaked in 2013 at 9.3 % of GDP, fell to drop 10-11 % over the coming two sharply in 2015 and 2016, this continues in years. The average number of people per 2017 but with a slower pace with a fall of household in Norway is 2.2. 4 %. DNB believes that the bottom has been Macro Economics 9
01 Key Economic Indicators Level NOKm Annual Change (%) 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Gross domestic product 3 279 363 1,0 2,0 2,0 1,1 1,8 2,0 1,9 2,7 2,4 GDP mainland Norway 2 803 831 2,3 2,2 1,4 1,0 1,8 2,4 2,3 2,3 2,1 Consumption in households etc. 1 396 161 2,8 2,1 2,6 1,5 2,3 2,5 2,7 2,5 2,8 General government consumption 790 560 1,0 2,7 2,4 2,1 2,0 1,5 1,7 1,7 1,7 Gross fixed investment 784 213 6,3 -0,7 -4,0 -0,2 3,5 2,5 2,1 1,9 0,4 Exports 1 148 215 -1,7 3,1 4,7 -1,8 0,8 2,0 2,0 4,5 3,7 Crude oil and natural gas 441 844 -5,5 2,7 2,1 4,3 1,9 -0,5 -0,7 5,6 4,7 Traditional goods 381 494 1,3 3,1 6,9 -8,2 2,2 4,7 4,1 4,5 3,6 Imports 1 082 212 5,0 2,4 1,6 2,3 2,2 2,2 2,8 2,5 2,2 Traditional goods 635 092 2,3 2,1 3,2 -0,4 3,2 3,2 3,6 3,3 2,8
Prices CPI 2,1 2,0 2,1 3,6 1,8 2,0 1,6 1,8 2,0 CPI-ATE 1,6 2,4 2,7 3,0 1,4 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,8 Housing Prices 4,1 2,7 6,0 7,0 5,0 -2,8 1,1 1,5 2,3
Employment Unemployment rate (% of work force) 4,2 3,5 3,5 4,4 4,7 4,2 3,9 3,8 3,7 Employed persons (percentage change) 2 592 1,1 1,2 0,4 0,3 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,0 Participation rate (level) 71,2 71,0 71,2 70,8 69,9 69,8 69,9 70
Interest rates 1. mar. 2018 10-year Government Bond rate (%) 1,90 3,00 1,54 1,48 1,66 1,61 1,90 Money market rate (level) (3M NIBOR) 1,03 1,8 1,7 1,3 1,1 0,9 0,8 0,9 1,2
Source: Statistics Norway As of March 2018 Macro Economics 10
02 Key Interest Rates 8 %
2003–2018 7 %
6 %
5 %
4 %
3 %
2 %
1 %
0 % Jul 11 Jul 17 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 15 Jul 14 Jan 11 Jul 10 Jul 07 Jan 17 Jul 09 Jul 06 Jan 12 Jul 03 Jul 05 Jul 08 Jan 16 Jan 13 Jul 04 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 18 Jan 10 Jan Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 06 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 04
NIBOR 3 months Source: SWAP 10 years DNB 10 year Gov. Bond Norges Bank, Sight deposit rate
Employees, thousands Change, % 3 000 03
Change in Total 4.1 % Employment 2 800 4 % 3.4 %
Norway 2 600 3.2 % 2.9 % 3 % 2.7 % 1993–2020E 2 400 2.1 % 2.0 %
2 200 1.9 % 2 % 1.7 % 1.5 % 1.3 % 1.2 %
2 000 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 1 % 0.7 % 0.6 %
1 800 0.5 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.3 % -021 % 1 600 -1.2 % -0.5 % -0.5 % 0 %
1 400 -1 % 1 200
1 000 -2 % 2011 1997 1994 1996 1993 1995 1998 1999 2012 2016 2013 2015 2014 2010 2001 2007 2002 2009 2006 2003 2005 2008 2004 2000 2017E 2019E 2018E 2020E
National employment change %, right axis Source: Employment change %, SSB forecast 10 year Statistics Norway Total employed Norway, thousands, left axis As of December 2017 Total employed, SSB forecast DNB Macro Economics 11
500 04 Main Indices Oslo and London 450 400 Index, 2004 = 100 350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 Jul 11 Jul 17 Jul 12 Jul 16 Jul 13 Jul 15 Jul 14 Jan 11 Jul 10 Jul 07 Jan 17 Jul 09 Jul 06 Jan 12 Jul 05 Jul 08 Jan 16 Jan 13 Jul 04 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 18 Jan 10 Jan Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 06 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 04
Oslo Stock Exchange (OSEBX) Source: London Stock Exchange (FTSE 100) London Stock Exchange/Oslo Børs
05 Exchange Rates 150 2005–2018 140
Index, 2005 = 100 120
130
110
100
90
80 Jul 11 Jul 17 Jul 12 Jul 16 Jul 13 Jul 15 Jul 14 Jan 11 Jul 10 Jul 07 Jan 17 Jul 06 Jul 09 Jan 12 Jul 05 Jul 08 Jan 16 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 18 Jan 10 Jan Jan 07 Jan 06 Jan 09 Jan 05 Jan 08
USD/NOK Source: EUR/NOK Norges Bank The Oslo Office Market 12
Overview of the Market
The Oslo office building stock, including outside the Central Business District are more profitable than refurbishment for Lysaker/Fornebu, today stands at around generally found along the outer ring road continued office use. 8.6 million m2. Of the total volume, roughly from Lysaker through Nydalen, Hasle- 3.3 million m2 are situated within the city Økern and Helsfyr-Bryn to Ryen. All areas centre. The city centre office areas are have seen new development over the last 10 marked in the map as seven areas/circles, years, and Fornebu and Nydalen have seen from Solli Plass in the west to Bjørvika in the highest activity. the east. The area between the CBD and the outer Since 2007, the city centre has seen ring road (in the map, seen as the Inner major urban redevelopment. Two new city West, North and East) is mostly in neighbourhoods at the waterfront, use for residential, education and retail Tjuvholmen and Bjørvika, have been purposes. The west of Oslo contains high- developed to become mixed residential end residential areas with low density. and commercial areas. Bjørvika still has The north-eastern corner of Oslo is the ongoing large development projects, and core area in all of Norway for logistical in the longer term, Filipstad just west of purposes, with many distribution centres Tjuvholmen will be available for major for retail, wholesale and third-party commercial and residential development. logistics companies. Eastern and southern areas mainly consist of residential areas Generally, Oslo has a great deal of urban with varying degrees of density. sprawl, and the built-up area covers significant land areas compared to its In most areas outside the major office population size. Most of the office building hubs, we see slow but steady conversion stock is concentrated in densely built areas, of older office buildings into residential and this is visible in the map. Office zones development projects, as these are generally The Oslo Office Market 13
06 The Oslo Sinsen Storo Oslo Outer East Office Area Kjelsås Grefsen Nydalen
Oslo Outer West Ullevål Alna-Ulven Økern Inner City North Majorstuen
Inner Helsfyr-Bryn City Skøyen West CBD Inner City East
Ryen Lysaker
Oslo Outer South Fornebu
Source: Akershus Eiendom 500 000 m² 250 000 m² 50 000 m² The Oslo Office Market 14
Rent Levels
STATUS centre, which is unusual. The two large law common area, flexible business centres and The slight upward pressure on office rents firms Thommessen and Arntzen de Besche more. For smaller companies this might observed in the beginning of last year will take 30 % of the high-end Vika project just as well mean relocating to office centres accelerated throughout 2017 and into 2018. VIA. In Bjørvika, the law firm Ræder has such as Regus, Spaces, Evolve, House of Prime rent, which have remained relatively signed the top floors of Diagonale, Dronning Business, and others. These office providers stable since 2013, is increasing, and our Eufemias gate 11. NAF will vacate their self- opened and signed contracts for multiple prime rent estimate is now NOK 4,300 per owned building at Bryn and move into new centres in 2017: m². Rents in Vika-Aker Brygge currently Rådhusgata 2 in Kvadraturen. range from 3,400 to 4,300 NOK per m², yet • Spaces opened a 6,200 m² centre in space in the top floors of the most attractive TRENDS - RENT Tollbugata 8 premises see rents of approximately NOK We expect rents in the city centre, Nydalen, • House of Business opened a new 1,200 5,000 per m². Rental levels at Fornebu and Skøyen and Majorstuen to rise by 5-10 m² centre at Bryn the eastern fringe have remained stable percent during 2018, with an additional • Regus signed a new 2,000 m² centre in since our last report, while there has been increase in the city centre of 5-10 percent Posthuset a slight increase in most other submarkets. during 2019. This forecast is based on rising • Spaces signed a new 5,200 m² centre in Bjørvika and Skøyen recorded the highest demand for office space and the low level of Calmeyers gate 1 and a 2,900 m² centre increases – around 10-12 percent. new buildings entering the market during in Torgbygget, Nydalen the upcoming two years. Since our last report, several notable new We expect this expansion to continue, as leases have been signed: Bane NOR has signed TRENDS – FLEXIBLE WORKSPACE their relative share of the office market is approximately 22,600 m² in Schweigaards gate Co-working and other forms of flexible low and the demand for flexible workspace 33, a new central office building developed by workspace gained substantial traction is increasing. Bane NOR Eiendom. Atea has signed 9,000 throughout 2017. Increased focus on effective m² in a new building at HasleLinje. As can be utilization of office space have evolved seen in the following table, many of the most over several years. For larger companies notable lease contracts are signed in the city this means more effective buildings, less The Oslo Office Market 15
07 Oslo Office Rents Sinsen Nydalen Storo Oslo Outer East January 2018 Kjelsås Grefsen
The map shows office rent levels Oslo Outer West Ullevål for high-standard units larger Alna-Ulven than 500 m² in different parts of Økern Oslo, as of January 2018. Inner City North Majorstuen
Inner Helsfyr-Bryn City Skøyen West CBD Inner City East
Ryen Lysaker
Oslo Outer South Fornebu
Rent, NOK/m²: Source: General high standard / Top standard and new space Akershus Eiendom
3 200 / 4 300 1 600 / 2 100 2 800 / 3 500 1 400 / 1 950 2 250 / 2 900 1 000 / 1 650 1 800 / 2 400
08 Oslo Office Leasing Examples
Property/location Owner Tenants ~Floor space, m² Area Schweigaards gate 33 Bane NOR Eiendom Bane NOR 22 600 CBD Ruseløkkveien 26 Storebrand / Aspelin Ramm Advokatfirmaet Thommessen 7 800 CBD Ruseløkkveien 26 Storebrand / Aspelin Ramm Arntzen de Besche 5 378 CBD Calmeyers gate 1 SpareBank1 Spaces 5 200 CBD Rådhusgata 2 Hathon Eiendom NAF 4 317 CBD Youngstorget 3 Thon Eiendom Bring Dialog 3 900 CBD Dronning Eufemias gate 11 HAV Eiendom / Thon Eiendom Advokatfirmaet Ræder 3 500 CBD Akersgata 35 Storebrand Computas 3 000 CBD Fjordalléen 16 DNB Næringseiendom Rystad Energy 2 600 CBD Kirkegata 15 Kirkegaten 15 DA Teleperformance 2 236 CBD Kronprinsesse Märthas plass 1 City Finansiering Nordic Trustee 1 500 CBD Munkedamsveien 45 Thon Eiendom Infront ASA 1 250 CBD Schweigaards gate 10 Oslo Areal, et al. Thales 1 200 CBD Kronprinsesse Märthas plass 1 City Finansiering Cushman & Wakefield 1 000 CBD Karvesvingen 5 Höegh Eiendom / AF Eiendom Atea 9 000 Hasle Grenseveien 88 Gasmann Eiendom BUFDIR (Barne-, ungdoms- og familiedirektoratet) 5 001 Helsfyr Nydalsveien 33 Avantor Spaces 2 800 Nydalen The Oslo Office Market 16
09 Year-End Rent Levels 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2004-2017 Prime 1 950 2 100 2 700 3 900 3 750 2 700 2 850 3 100 3 400 3 750 3800 3750 3850 4250 High std CBD 1 550 1 700 1 900 2 300 2 300 2 200 2 350 2 550 2 850 2 900 2900 2800 2900 3000 Newer space CBD 1 700 1 900 2 000 2 600 2 600 2 500 2 550 2 650 2 850 2 900 2900 2800 3000 3150 The table shows year-end rent levels Good std CBD 1 250 1 300 1 400 1 900 1 900 1 850 1 900 2 250 2 250 2 400 2450 2400 2600 2800 based on signed contracts, both new signings and renegotations. High std Skøyen ------2 450 2 650 2700 2550 2600 3000 High std west fringe 1 300 1 400 1 750 2 200 2 200 1 900 1 900 1 900 1 900 2 100 2100 1800 1800 1975 High std east fringe 1 100 1 150 1 300 1 550 1 650 1 550 1 650 1 650 1 700 1 800 1800 1800 1900 2100
Sources: Dagens Næringsliv Akershus Eiendom
10 Office Rents 5 000 1986–2017 4 500
4 000 Nominal NOK 3 500
The figure shows rent levels based 3 000 on signed contracts, both new signings and renegotations. 2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0 1991 H2 2011 H2 1987 H2 1997 H2 2017 H2 1994 H2 1996 H2 1989 H2 1993 H2 1992 H2 1995 H2 1986 H2 1998 H2 1988 H2 1999 H2 1999 2012 H2 2016 H2 2013 H2 2013 2015 H2 2014 H2 1990 H2 2010 H2 2001 H2 2007 H2 2002 H2 2009 H2 2006 H2 2003 H2 2005 H2 2008 H2 2004 H2 2000 H2 2000
Prime High std Skøyen Sources: High std CBD High std west fringe Dagens Næringsliv Newer space CBD High std east fringe Akershus Eiendom Good std CBD
The Oslo Office Market 18
Survey of Relocation Patterns
To map tenants’ relocation patterns across As seen in figure 11, the sample includes charge of several large public relocations, Oslo (including Lysaker and Fornebu), 75,000 m² of relocations from premises we expect further migration of government Akershus Eiendom annually collects a in Oslo East. This is twice as much as the institutions from central locations to the representative sample of recently signed previous year. And where the retention rate eastern fringe. lease contracts. was only 51 % in 2016, an historical low, as much as 77 % chose to move within Oslo HISTORICAL COMPARISON This year’s sample for our relocation analysis east in 2017. Historical results of our relocation survey consists of 120 tenants occupying 209,000 are shown in the bottom diagram. m² (excluding renegotiated contracts and The CBD usually sees a high share of the extensions). This is a slight decrease from same: 86 % of all relocations from the area Companies choosing to stay in the east last year but in line with earlier surveys. chose to stay within it. We also see that many (77 %) is up from its five-year average of 62 %. The most notable relocation examples companies have chosen not to move, but include Bane NOR moving from multiple renegotiate their contracts, in the prime area There is a historically low volume of locations, including Stortorvet 7 (CBD) to Vika-Aker Brygge. This is most likely a result demand moving westwards from CBD. Schweigaards gate (CBD), Computas from of low vacancy and few alternatives in the area. Lower levels have only been recorded once Lysaker (west) to Akersgata (CBD) and NAF the last decade – which was last year. from Bryn (east) to Kvadraturen (CBD). The relocation pattern in the west resembles the trend from the 2016 survey where 30 % In 2016 and 2017, the CBD has had a net 2017 PATTERNS of all relocations migrated to the CBD. IT inflow of relocating companies. This differs If 2016 was the year of long-distance firms moving from Lysaker and Skøyen to from what we have observed earlier. All relocations, 2017 was the year of the short. the CBD is a major contributor to this trend. surveys from 2012-2015 have shown a 77 % of all tenants in the sample ended up Thus, the recent decline in the oil industry is migration out of the city centre. We believe moving within the same area. This is 10 % not the only challenge for the western areas. this is a result of more effective use of office higher than 2016, but on par with 2015. space, driving to work being less important The flow of tenants to Oslo east in 2016 did and attractive offices being a central part of not continue into 2017. With Statsbygg taking attracting new talent. The Oslo Office Market 19
11 Relocation Trends for Signed Leases 2 200 m² 2017 Oslo 59 600 m² Staying (77 %)
The map shows the relocation patterns for tenants who has 3 200 m² 4 200 m² signed new lease contracts for 32 700 m² office space during 2017, as Staying (64 %) represented by their volumes. 15 800 m² The CBD is limited to Solli plass in the west and Bjørvika in the east. 69 600 m² Staying (86 %)
15 300 m² Oslo CBD 7 800 m²
Oslo West Oslo East
Oslo West Net effect: - 12 100 m² Source: Oslo CBB Net effect: 19 200 m² Akershus Eiendom Oslo East Net effect: - 7 200 m²
Share of office space 12 Relocation trends 100 % 2007 – 2017 90 %
80 % From CBD, west and east 70 % All tenants included in the survey: 60 %
Have signed a new lease 50 % contract. It is not a condition that the company has physically 40 % moved during the year.
Will occupy more than 500 m² 30 % of office space in their new location. 20 %
10 %
0 %
2011 2011 2011 2017 2017 2017 2012 2012 2012 2016 2013 2015 2014 2016 2016 2013 2013 2015 2015 2014 2014 2010 2010 2010 2007 2007 2007 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2009
Moving from CBD Moving from West Moving from East
Moving to CBD Source: Moving to West Akershus Eiendom Moving to East The Oslo Office Market 20
Vacancy
As of January 2018, Oslo office vacancy 26 in Vika, and a few larger residential follow the downward trend in 2018 to 2020. measured as floor space available now or conversion projects in the Oslo west fringe. In 2021 we expect to see some increase in within three months currently stands at Our estimates for the next few years are overall vacancy as we expect new office approximately 570,000 m2 or 6.6 % of the between 100,000 and 130,000 m2 per year; space to enter the market in larger volumes. total office stock. This is down 50 basis still high, but based on a steady growth in Displayed in figure 14 is the year-on-year points since our last report in October, and re-development projects. Combined with forecast for the Oslo vacancy rate. follows our previous prediction that the the relatively low construction activity (see overall Oslo office vacancy is downward Development for details) this is likely to Vacancy risk trending. The vacancy in Oslo city centre bring vacancy downwards. We measure vacancy risk as possible are currently standing at 4.7 %. vacant office space within two years. This Demand materialises itself through new office We observe that the areas of City Centre The demand for good office space in Oslo projects or re-developments with vacant west/Solli plass, City Centre east/Bjørvika was healthy during 2017, and is expected space, or non-renegotiated ending leases. and Økern have experienced larger declines to strengthen over the coming years. While the risk is generally low in all areas, in vacancy compared to the overall Oslo According to Statistics Norway, the change we recognise some higher vacancy risk for office stock. This is, in our view, the in total employment ended up 1.1 % in Inner city west and the west fringe areas, as consequence of private tenants seeking 2017, and is expected to follow this trend can be seen in figure 15. High vacancy risk central locations. At Økern, a few buildings going forward. Furthermore, SpareBank is not unusual in areas where there is high have been taken off the market for re- 1 report increased optimism amongst development activity or large ending leases. development or demolition. business leaders in the region through their expectations barometer for 2018 implying Supply that the demand for office space is likely to We have increased our estimates for office stay positive and stable over the next year. space leaving the Oslo market in 2018 to 130,000 m2. Projects contributing to this are With this in mind, we stay on course with the complete demolition of Ruseløkkveien our prediction that overall vacancy will The Oslo Office Market 21
13 Oslo Office Vacancy Sinsen Nydalen Storo Oslo Outer East Kjelsås Grefsen This map shows office vacancy in the various areas of Oslo as of Oslo Outer West Ullevål January 2018. Space counted is Alna-Ulven Økern available at the latest by March 31. Inner City North Majorstuen
Inner Helsfyr-Bryn City Skøyen West CBD Inner City East
Ryen Lysaker
Oslo Outer South Fornebu
<15,5 % <7,5 % Source: <12,5 % <5 % Akershus Eiendom <10 % <2,5 %
m² office space 14 Oslo Office Vacancy 1 000 000 2006-2021E 900 000 11.0 % 800 000 The columns show how vacancy changes due to demand. The forecast 700 000 8.0 % 7.5 % 8.0 %
of new demand and supply are 8.0 % 7.0 % based on knowledge about specific 7.0 %
600 000 7.0 % 7.0 % 6.5 % office developments and the official 6.5 %
estimates for employee growth. 5.5 % 500 000 5.5 % 5.0 % Our forecast indicate a slight 5.0 %
400 000 4.5 % decrease in office vacancy in the coming years given today’s expectations of future demand and a 300 000 relatively modest supply of new space until 2021. 200 000
100 000
0 2011 2017 2012 2016 2013 2015 2014 2018 2010 2007 2006 2009 2008 2021E 2019E 2020E
Actual Forecast Vacancy level by the start of the year Sources: Net new office space added Akershus Eiendom Change in demand (absorbed space) Various developers The Oslo Office Market 22
15 Vacancy Risk Sinsen Nydalen Storo Oslo Outer East 2018-2020 Kjelsås Grefsen
The map shows the risk of future Oslo Outer West Ullevål vacancy within each sub-area of Alna-Ulven Oslo in the coming two years. The Økern analysis is based on known volumes Inner City North of office space entering the market Majorstuen during the period, either through new vacant buildings or because the tenant moves out. The analysis Inner Helsfyr-Bryn does not take into account the City effects of tenants moving between Skøyen West CBD sub-areas; it is solely a supply-side Inner City East risk analysis.
Ryen Lysaker
Oslo Outer South Fornebu
High risk Source: Medium risk Akershus Eiendom Low risk
The Oslo Office Market 24
Development
NEW OFFICE CONSTRUCTION 120,000 m² per year in the period 2018- as measured in Norges Bank’s business Major new office buildings announced since 2020. Thus, the net new supply of office sentiment survey of Q1 2018. our last report are Schage Eiendom’s new space is expected to remain low for the office development “Skøyen Atrium III” of coming two years, as it has been over the CONSTRUCTION COSTS AND BACKLOGS 17,500 m² located at Skøyen, and the next previous years. Graph 20 shows Akershus Eiendom’s stage of the HasleLinje project at Økern, estimated turnkey cost for new office Karvesvingen 5, totaling 18,000 m². The From the end of 2018, we forecast that buildings in Oslo, which shows an latter project will become the new HQ of the low vacancy will result in more new increase during 2017, from NOK 20,000 to Atea once completed in 2020. In addition, buildings being ordered, and we expect a NOK 23,000. As of early 2018, we do not Storebrand and Aspelin-Ramm have greater volume of new supply from 2020 observe a continuation of this increase signed 30 % of their new development VIA onwards. However, since our last report, we in construction costs, due to a decline in (Ruseløkkveien 26), located in the prime have decreased our new office completion residential housing starts. Thus, our forecast Vika area, where completion is planned estimate for 2020 by 25,000 m², down to is stable costs throughout 2018. for 2021. For a complete list of started new 200,000 m², pushing some of the expected developments in the period 2018-2021, see construction activity – especially in the CBD Graph 21 shows the order backlog for table 18. area – further out in time. the Norwegian construction industry. The volume is at a new record high level, OFFICE VOLUME FORECASTS Additionally, we see many large tenants mostly due to the growth in residential For 2018, we expect a total of 126,000 m² of looking for office space, as several large construction. This is expected to change, new office space to enter the market, after office leases expire in the coming years. as the sales of new homes has declined a modest volume of 86,000 m² in 2017. Thus, we believe the absorption of new space compared to 2016-17, and we expect that this For 2019, known new developments are will increase steadily going forward. This is will affect the volume of new projects going currently at 78,000 m², and we expect this supported by falling unemployment rates, forward. For commercial construction, to rise to close to 110,000 m2. On the other and companies’ improving expectations however, some growth can be expected, as hand, we expect demolition or conversion of expanding their number of employees, pointed out. of office space to other use of approximately The Oslo Office Market 25 The Oslo Office Market 26
16 New Office Buildings 2018–2021
2018: 126.000 m² Helsedirektoratet 2019 (known): 78.000 m² 2020 (known): 81.000 m² Atea Securitas
The map shows the location, Omsorgsbygg Trebygget Valle year of completion, leasing/ Hoffsveien 9 vacancy situation and relative size NAV - Fyrstikkalléen 1 of the ongoing, or in other ways Drammensveien 147 confirmed, office construction Harbitz Torg Orkla projects in Oslo. The names are Østensjøvn. 16 DEG 6b either the address, project name, or tenant name where the project Bane Nor has one major tenant. VIA - Ruseløkkvn.26 Nemko Diagonale Eufemia
New buildings 2018 Source: New buildings 2019 Akershus Eiendom
Vacant New buildings 2020–2021 Occupied
17 Available land plots for office development in Oslo 2018
Potential size, floor space m²:
150 000 m² 75 000 m²
25 000 m² 10 000 m²
! Available now or within 4 years Source: Long-term development potential, Akershus Eiendom less certainty The Oslo Office Market 27
18 New Major Oslo Property/building Floor space m² Area Completion Developer Office Projects Hagaløkkveien 26 14 500 Asker 2018 Ferd Eiendom Bøkkerveien 5 (Securitas) 12 000 Økern 2018 Höegh Eiendom 2018-2021 Drammensveien 149 19 500 Skøyen 2018 Orkla Eiendom Dronning Eufemias gate 7 (Diagonale) 15 200 CBD East 2018 Hav Eiendom / Olav Thon Philip Pedersens vei 11 6 300 Lysaker 2019 NCC Vitaminveien 4 17 000 Nydalen 2018 Skanska Grenseveien 80 8 000 Helsfyr-Bryn 2018 Bunde Eiendom Valle - "Trebygget" 5 700 Helsfyr-Bryn 2018 NCC Schweigaardsgate 33B 22 500 CBD East 2018 ROM Eiendom Eufemia Bjørvika 21 000 CBD East 2019 Oslo S Utvikling Harbitzalléen 3-7 30 000 Skøyen 2019 Møller Eiendom Østensjøveien 16 11 000 Helsfyr/Bryn 2019 FRAM Eiendom Fyrstikkalléen 1 37 000 Helsfyr 2020 Vedal Freserveien 1 25 600 Inner city east 2020 OBOS Forretningsbygg Drammensveien 147 17 500 Skøyen 2019 Schage Eiendom Karvesvingen 5 18 000 Økern 2020 Höegh Eiendom Lørenveien 65 19 500 Økern 2020 Skanska VIA 45 000 CBD 2021 Storebrand / Aspelin Ramm
m2 19 New Office 300 000 Space 250 000
Completed new office space in Oslo (including Fornebu). Only certain new buildings is 200 000 included in the 2018 figures.
150 000
100 000
50 000
0 2011 1997 2017 1996 1995 1998 1999 2012 2016 2013 2015 2014 2010 2001 2007 2002 2006 2009 2003 2005 2008 2004 2000 2021E 2019E 2018E 2020E
West Source: East Akershus Eiendom CBD Estimate (all areas) The Oslo Office Market 28
NOK / m2 20 Estimated 24 000
Turnkey 22 000 Cost 20 000
Akershus Eiendom’s official estimate of turnkey cost is based 18 000 upon information from recent initiated projects and input from valuations. 16 000
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000 Jul 11 Jul 17 Jul 12 Jul 16 Jul 13 Jul 15 Jul 14 Jul 18 Jan 11 Jul 10 Jul 07 Jan 17 Jul 09 Jul 06 Jan 12 Jul 08 Jan 16 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 18 Jan 10 Jan Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 06 Jan 08
Estimated future construction cost Source: Observed construction cost Akershus Eiendom
Value index for backlog 21 Order Backlog 375 350 New Buildings 325 Nationwide 300 2006–2017 275 250 Quarterly index 225 200 The graph shows the order back 175 log for new buildings. The graph has been deflated by the total 150 production index to remove effects of changes in building costs (basic 125 component costs) and changes in 100 margins to contractors 75 50 25 11 Q2 17 Q2 12 Q2 16 Q2 13 Q2 15 Q2 14 Q2 10 Q2 07 Q2 06 Q2 08 Q2 09 Q2
National index, all new and rehab projects Source: New residential buildings Statistics Norway Other new buildings (mainly commercial)
The Investment Market 30
The Investment Market
Norwegian Market Performance transaction volume since 2007. Residential 2011. The NOK 46.4 billion invested was up The Norwegian market was very active properties and land-plots saw a 10 % 48 % from 2016. The number of transactions in 2017, reaching NOK 90 billion (11 % up increase in investment volumes, despite the increased 21 % to 115 from 95 in 2016. This over 2016), the second highest volume ever residential prices cooling off during the year. is the highest number of transactions ever recorded (only deals above NOK 50 million The retail market remains at relatively high recorded. where a majority stake was transacted are levels, despite a 26 % reduction in volume. included in the statistics). A record-high 331 The hotel market saw the lowest activity Foreign investors were net buyers in Oslo transactions were recorded, a 17 % increase since 2013. The reduction in the retail and in 2017 with a net inflow of NOK 3.1 billion, from the previous record of 283 transactions hotel market is a result of condensed, long- which is 13 % of the market, a slight increase in 2016. term ownership of assets and therefore a from 2016. However, a total of NOK 6.2 strained supply side and lack of high quality billion was invested, up from 4.9 billion in Foreign investors increased their presence and larger assets. 2016. The lower share of foreign investors in 2017, investing NOK 20 billion (22 % of in Oslo is not unusual, as the share of total invested volume). This was a 47 % The most active players in the Norwegian foreign investment in Oslo has been lower increase since 2016, and the second highest market in 2017 were the domestically based than for the total Norwegian market every level ever recorded. In 2017, foreign investors closed-ended funds. They acquired NOK year since 2013. The lower share of foreign divested NOK 8.5 billion, a decrease from the 24.4 billion worth of real estate and divested investors appears to be a result of relatively NOK 9.7 billion divested in 2016. Foreign NOK 9.9 billion. As the number of listed real few transactions in the prime segment of investors have now been net buyers every estate companies in Norway is limited, the fully let central Oslo office properties. year since 2012. CEFs have served as an efficient channel for medium-sized investors seeking exposure Financing Measured by growth in transaction volume, towards the real estate market. The Norwegian Central Bank has signaled office and logistics properties where the an increase in the key policy rate toward the most popular assets in 2017. The office Oslo Market Performance end of 2018, after keeping the rate unchanged transaction volume increased 41 %, while The Oslo market made up 51 % of the at 0.5 % since April 2016. Bank margins logistics recorded the second highest transaction volume, the highest level since decreased marginally at the beginning of The Investment Market 31
2018, after having risen steadily since 2015. Outlook Despite the increasing interest rates, we While margins have decreased, interest We expect total 2018 investment volumes in expect that for the high quality, centrally rates have seen an increase of 40 to 50 basis the NOK 80-90 billion interval. The market located assets, constraint on the supply points across the 3Y, 5Y, 7Y and 10Y SWAP activity has continued at the same pace in side persists. An increasing interest in rates since November 2017. Banks are also 2018 as observed in 2017. The prime yield Norwegian assets from investors all over more inclined to vary margins based on estimate remains unchanged at 3.75 %, the world, should also keep demand high. the quality of the borrower and the asset confirmed through several transactions in As the Nordic commercial real estate compared to a couple of years ago. They the 4th quarter. market (Norway, Sweden, Finland) in 2017 also favor lower leverage with relatively made up the third largest market in Europe lower margins than before, which should However, we do expect to see upward measured in transaction volume, we result in the overall leverage decreasing in pressure more than downward pressure on observe that an increasing share of foreign the market. yield levels in 2018, especially if the interest investors are seeing the Nordics as part of rates continue to increase. The upward their investment strategies. We thus expect While the banks are somewhat selective, pressure on yields is likely to be stronger the demand for high quality assets and the bond financing market is thriving. for Oslo fringe assets than for prime assets, continued search for returns to keep market Real estate bond issuances increased 50 % as the most active investors in the fringe activity high and yields relatively low. in 2017, to NOK 36 billion. The investment areas are more sensitive to margin increases banks setting up closed-ended funds have than prime asset investors who generally also increasingly issued junior bonds and operate with lower leverage. Furthermore, other high yield bonds. The number of the yield gap between prime assets and the bond issuers has increased substantially top fringe assets has been reduced to 60-75 both in 2017 and over the last five years. basis points, which is low in a historical Pension funds and insurance companies perspective. The forecast for the coming remain the largest buyers of the bonds. six months is thus for an unchanged prime yield level. The Investment Market 32
NOK Million 22 Transaction Volume 120 000 of Commercial Properties 100 000
Only deals larger than NOK 50 80 000 million are incuded in the graph. Transaction volume in 2016 was NOK ~80 billion. The transaction volume in 2017 amounted to NOK 60 000 ~90 billion.
40 000
20 000
0 2011 2017 2012 2016 2013 2015 2014 2010 2007 2006 2009 2005 2008
Remaining Source: Commercial land plots Akershus Eiendom Residential projects Logistics / industrial properties Hotels Retail properties Office buildings
23 Interest Rates and 8.00 % 7.50 % Prime Transaction 7.00 % Yields 2002–2018 6.50 % 6.00 % The curve indicates the 10-year 5.50 % government bond rate and the 5.00 % 10-year SWAP rate. The triangles represent time and sales yield 4.50 % for large Oslo office transactions 4.00 % since Jan 2002. 3.50 % 3.00 % 2.50 % 2.00 % 1.50 % 1.00 % 0.50 % Jul 11 Jul 17 Jul 12 Jul 16 Jul 13 Jul 15 Jul 14 Jan 11 Jul 10 Jul 07 Jan 17 Jul 02 Jul 06 Jul 09 Jan 12 Jul 03 Jul 05 Jul 08 Jan 16 Jan 13 Jul 04 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 18 Jan 07 Jan 02 Jan 06 Jan 09 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 04 Jan 10 Jan
Transaction Yield Source: 10Y SWAP Akershus Eiendom 10Y Gov. Bond The Investment Market 33
24 2 % 3 % 7 % Sellers and Buyers 9 % 3 % of Commercial 1 % 22 % 24 % 2 % 2 % Property 2016-2017 11 % 36 % 1 % 2017 1 % 11 % 8 % 7 % 13 % 4 % 27 % 6 %
4 % 12 % 7 % 2 % 9 % 1 % 2 % 17 % 26 %
2016 12 % 30 % 5 % 4 % 7 % 5 % 12 % 6 % 21 % 7 % 8 %
Sellers Buyers
Listed property funds Private investors Source: Property companies Government Akershus Eiendom Insurance/Pension funds Hotel operator/Owner Property funds Foreign investors Closed-end funds Remaining Owner occupied
25 Oslo Office Transactions
Property/location Floor Price NOK Seller Buyer space m² million Eikenga 31-33 11 000 150 Hero Eiendom Centennial Eiendom Sommerrogaten 13-15 7 304 320 Starwood Capital Nordea Liv Alf Bjerckes vei 10 13 000 300 Closed-ended fund by Arctic Securities Ragde Eiendom Mølleparken 4 19 500 440 Søylen Eiendom, et. al. Closed-ended fund by Vika Project Finance Stålfjæra 24 5 646 n.a. Starwood Capital Group Ragde Eiendom Dronningens gate 13 15 855 n.a. Starwood Capital Group Ragde Eiendom Fornebuveien 7-13 11 833 n.a. Closed-ended fund by Pareto Securities Joh. Johannson Ryenstubben 10-12 13 819 409 Gunnar Karlsen Closed-ended fund by Pareto Securities Victoriapassasjen 4 500 321 Sabinum AS Artmax AB Wergelandsveien 15 3 421 n.a. Utdanningsforbundet Aberdeen Standard Investments Rosenholmveien 22 6 200 100 Einar Gert von Hirsch Tress Eiendom Professor Kohts vei 9 44 241 2 225 Storebrand Livsforsikring Closed-ended fund by Arctic Securities Henrik Ibsens gate 48 6 022 475 Den Amerikanske Ambasade Fredensborg Eiendom Middelthuns gate 29 21 606 1 270 Entra Closed-ended fund by NRP Helsfyr Puls 9 795 n.a. Bundegruppen Oslo Areal Lørenveien 37 8 000 n.a. Closed-ended fund by Colliers Closed-ended fund by Clarksons-Platou Gaustadalléen 21 - Hus 5 12 497 n.a. Closed-ended fund by Arctic Securities Closed-ended fund by NRP Pontoppidans gate 7 - Trikkestallen 9 000 295 Closed-ended fund by Arctic Securities Beringer Finance/Realkapital Akersveien 26 16 763 n.a. Closed-ended fund by Clarksons-Platou Canica Philip Pedersens vei 1 22 682 n.a. Closed-ended fund by Clarksons-Platou Union Ulvenveien 111 6 800 65 OBOS Forretningsbygg Fortuna Estate Cort Adelers gate 33 8 191 725 Winta Eiendom AS Deka Immobilien Nydalen Allé 35 14 719 595 Closed-ended fund by NRP Closed-ended fund by Arctic Securities Regional Property Markets 34
Regional Property Markets
Bergen leaseback contract for approximately NOK located at Forus. The interest in the office Totaling at NOK 5.5 billion, the Bergen 755 million was one of the most prominent property market in the city center have transaction market in 2017 had a solid year. transactions in the region last year. been high. The yield levels on good office property remains at 4.75 – 5.5 % while there have been Rent levels for office in TrondheimCBD are The prime yield has felt some downwards observed a downward pressure on good in a modestly increasing trend, and are now pressure as there have been observed logistic property in the northern fringe. above NOK 2,000 for new buildings and transactions down towards 4.5 % in the city rehabs. Prices in the fringe zones remain CBD. For most transactions in the rest of the The office rent levels in Bergen have been stable at current levels. region, the normal yield levels continue to some of the least volatile in Norway, a trend stay in the 7-8 % interval. that is expected to continue throughout Office vacancy has increased throughout 2018. Rent levels for prime CBD is still at the year and is now close to 9.5 % for The region is still experiencing high NOK 2,800, while the lowest rents are found Trondheim as a whole. The highest office vacancy, and the overall office vacancy in Fyllingsdalen and Sandsli respectively. vacancy levels are found in the southern is measured to be approximately 13.5 %. fringe areas of Sluppen, Fossegrenda and Stavanger city center have 7.1 % vacancy, The office vacancy in the region is still at Tiller where vacancy lie in the 15-20 % while Forus show small signs of recovery at 10 %, fueled by the volume of new office interval. 22 % vacancy. space entering the region. Stavanger Rent levels in the region are under pressure Trondheim The Stavanger transaction market saw as vacancy continue to stay at high levels. The transaction volume in Trondheim a recurring year with high activity and While the rent levels in the city center and reached NOK 6.1 billion in 2017 compared to demand for good property. The transaction Tananger remain unchanged, the Forus the volume of NOK 4.3 billion in 2016. Prime volume ended at NOK 5.5 billion in 2017, rents are down NOK 50 for prime office space yield for the best objects is 4.75 %. The sale up from the NOK 3.9 billion in 2016. The and NOK 100 for normal office space per m2, of Søndre gt. 4-10 from Sparebank 1 SNM volume is mainly driven by larger deals in to NOK 1,450 and NOK 1,000 respectively. to E.C. Dahls Eiendom AS on a 15 years the CBD area, and the sale of car dealerships
Regional Property Markets 36
26 Year-End Office Rents 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Bergen 1225 1400 1550 1475 1475 1475 1475 1475 1475 1505 1545 1565 2006–2017 Trondheim 1350 1650 1650 1600 1600 1650 1700 1700 1750 1654 1631 1711 Stavanger - CBD 1500 1650 1700 1600 1600 1700 1900 1950 2000 1894 1755 1755 Stavanger - Oil 1200 1350 1400 1300 1300 1350 1450 1525 1450 1271 1144 1042 Kristiansand 1350 1525 1550 1425 1400 1400 1375 1400 1400 1400 1300 1325 Tromsø 1000 1300 1300 1300 1450 1450 1500 1674 1650 1770 1937 1937
Source: Dagens Næringsliv
NOK/m2/year 27 Regional Office Rents 2 000
1996-2017 1 800
Nominal NOK 1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400 2011 H1 1997 H1 1996 H1 1998 H1 1999 H1 1999 2012 H1 2013 H1 2013 2010 H1 2001 H1 2017 H2 2007 H1 2016 H2 2013 H2 2015 H2 2014 H2 2002 H1 2006 H1 2009 H1 2003 H1 2005 H1 2008 H1 2004 H1 2000 H1 2000
Bergen Stavanger - Oil (Forus) Source: Trondheim Kristiansand Dagens Næringsliv Stavanger - CBD Tromsø Regional Property Markets 37
Office rent, NOK per m2 28 2 800 Office rents Bergen Trondheim Stavanger 2 600 January 2018 2 400 2 200 The columns show lower and higher rents for different areas within the 2 000 three cities. 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 East CBD CBD CBD Forus South Sandsli Sandsli Tananger Tananger Fringe CBD CBD Fringe CBD Fringe Fyllingsdalen
Best rent levels Sources: Lower rent levels Eiendomsmegler1 Midt-Norge Eiendomsmegler1 Rogaland Kyte Eiendom
29 Regional Office 14 % Vacancy 12 % 2003–2018
10 %
8 %
6 %
4 %
2 %
0 % 11 Jan 11 Aug 17 Jan 17 Aug 12 Jan 16 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 18 Jan 12 Aug 16 Aug 13 Aug 10 Jan 10 15 Aug 14 Aug 10 Aug 07 Jan 07 Aug 09 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 09 Aug 03 Oct 08 Aug 06 Feb 04 Feb 06 Sept 05 Sept
Bergen Sources: Trondheim Eiendomsmegler1 Midt-Norge Stavanger Eiendomsmegler1 Rogaland Kyte Eiendom Regional Property Markets 38
30 Leasing
Property / location Floor space m² Rent / m2 Lease Tenant Owner Stavanger Laberget 5 500 Confidential Bouvet Oslo areal Forusparken 2 2 000 Confidential KPMG 2020 Park AS Byfjordparken, Stavanger Nord 4 000 Confidential BI GMC eiendom AS
Trondheim Powerhouse 4 800 2 050 Teekay Entra Dronningens gate 10 950 1 900 HK Reklame E.C. Dahls Eiendom
Bergen
31 Sales
Property / location Floor space m2 Price, MNOK Buyer Seller Stavanger Norges Bank (Domkirkeplassen 3) 3 500 85 Camar Eiendom AS Stavanger Kommune Pond Hotel (Koppholen 17) N/A 100 Stordalen Base Property Sunde bygget (Løkkeveien 99) 6 130 180 K2 & Camar Thorleif Sunde Hotell Victoria (Skansegata 1) N/A 143 Glastad Holding Cartella real estate Bilportefølje, Forus (Fabrikkveien 36 - 41) 20 000 475 Castelar Miklagard (Ertevåg og Øgreid) Ankerkvartalet 28 000 Confidential Uref II (Union) Øgreid Eiendom Statens Hus 20 500 780 Storebrand Eiendomsfond Norge KS NRP Syndicate
Trondheim Westermannsveita 4 5 500 80 E.C. Dahls Eiendom AS Telenor Pensjonskasse Tungasletta 2 14 800 180 Entra Kaare Arnstad og Hasle Gjerde Søndre gate 4 - 10 18 100 755 E.C. Dahls Eiendom AS Sparebank 1 SMN Trondheim Innovation Center 29 000 760 Clarkson Platou Syndicate Fortin/Anvil Nordre gate 1 - 3 og 15 N/A 97 Aberdeen Westerlund
Bergen Nøstegaten 28 10 500 130 Bergen Kommune Posten Strandgaten 9 2 200 70 Joa Gruppen Odfjell Eiendom Kanalveien 52B 20 000 240 Bergen Kommune Posten Norge Bradbenken 1 10 700 400 Aberdeen Property Nordic Fund 1 B Friele og Sønner AS Sandslihaugen 10 7 365 94 Midgard Gruppen Sandsli Holding Deler av Brann Stadion Conv. to res. 265 Sammen Brann Conrad Mohrs veg 15 Conv. to res. / office 215 Bob / Backer BIR Hjalmar Brantings vei 2 Conv. to res. 100 Axer Eiendom og Rema Etablering Knudsen Eiendomsselskap AS 39
32 New Building / Rehabilitation
Floor space m² Completion Developer Tenant Trondheim Prinsensgate 39 (rehabilitation) 2 374 May-18 E.C.Dalhs Eiendom AtB
Source: Eiendomsmegler 1 Midt-Norge Eiendomsmegler 1 Rogaland Kyte Næringsmegler
International Office Markets 42
International Office Markets
NORDIC OFFICE MARKETS In Copenhagen, prime office properties are total vacancy at year-end was 14.1 %, down The Nordic countries are in a strong high in demand, and demand in secondary 0.6 %-points since our previous report, while business cycle, rental levels have been locations is rising. Serviced office solutions the CBD vacancy stands at 5.6 %. Also, rents moving upwards and vacancy rates are growing, and take-up volumes may see some upward pressure. Prime rental levels downwards, and the forecasts suggest that increase. The vacancy rate in greater have increased slightly during H2 while most the positive trend will continue. Copenhagen stands at 9.5 %, however, the submarkets are still awaiting an upturn. Prime vacancy in Copenhagen Proper currently rent currently stands at €396, up from €384 in The supply of office space in Stockholm has stands at 5.7 %. Prime rents are expected to H1 2017. The Finnish real estate investment remained low, with the vacancy rate in the increase as declining vacancy and increasing market remained exceptionally active during CBD standing at a record low level of 2.6 %, construction costs are expected to put 2017 and the total transaction volume ended while the overall vacancy stands at 7.7 %. A upward pressure on rents. Rents in the CBD at €10 billion. The prime yield estimate is still favorable economic environment, robust have increased slightly and is currently in down 40 basis points over the last 12 months, demand and scarce supply have continued to interval DKK 1,400 – 1,900 per m² p.a. 2017 and currently stands at 3.6 %. exert upward pressure on rents, primarily in was yet another record year in the transaction central Stockholm, but also in other popular market. Prime properties are still attracting EUROPEAN OFFICE MARKETS submarkets. Prime rent has increased by the majority of investor demand, but interest The Jones Lang LaSalle “Office Clock” almost 13 % during 2017 and currently stands in secondary properties that offer good risk- describes the European market situation by at SEK 7,000 per m² p.a., while requested adjusted returns has picked up. Prime yield a quarterly plot for the movement in prime rents for the very best CBD premises stands at estimate is currently 3.6 %, down 0.4 %-points rents for major cities. The clock illustrates SEK 9,000 per m² p.a. The investment market since our previous report. both direction and speed of change for the has remained very healthy during 2017. The different cities over 6 months. The rental total transaction volume in Stockholm For the Helsinki office market, positive growth in Stockholm, Copenhagen, and during H2 2017 amounted to SEK 25.7 billion, momentum has continued during H2 2017, Helsinki is expected to slow down. Oslo is equivalent to 38 % of the total transaction as the improving Finnish economy further currently at the 07:00 position, representing volume in Sweden. The prime yield estimate energizes the demand side. The vacancy an improvement in rental growth during remains at 3.5 %. rate appears to have passed its peak, as the end of 2017. International Office Markets 43
33 Jones Lang LaSalle Office Property Clock Main European Cities Q4, 2017
London City Paris CBD Cologne, Dusseldorf Dublin Hamburg, Stuttgart Frankfurt, Manchester Budapest, Copenhagen, Edinburgh, Rental Munich, Prague, Stockholm Rents Growth Falling Berlin, Luxembourg Slowing
Amsterdam, Barcelona, Helsinki, Lisbon, Madrid, Rome, St. Petersburg
Milan Rental Rents Growth Bottoming Accelerating Out Brussels
Istanbul
Lyon, Oslo
London WE Athens Geneva Bucharest, Kiev, Moscow, Warsaw, Zurich
Source: JLL Akershus Eiendom
34 Key Information Nordic Cities Q4 2017
Key Data Oslo Stockholm Copenhagen Helsinki Gothenburg Prime Yield (%) (CBD) 3.75 3.50 3.60 3.60 4.25 Rest of Inner City (%) 4.25-4.75 3.75 4.50 4.75 4.75 Prime Rent (Local Currency / Euro / m²) (CBD) 4 300 / 445 7 000 / 707 1 800 / 242 396 3 200 / 323 Submarkets (Local Currency / Euro / m²) 2 700 / 280 4 600 / 465 1 100-1 650 / 148-222 306 2 600 / 263 Completions - 2017 (m²) (Total) 91 300 95 200 395 000 54 000 17 800 Completions - 2018 (m²) (Total) 133 000 150 100 365 000 61 000 15 900 Completions - 2019 (m²) (Total) 150 000 119 100 385 000 54 000 47 700 Vacancy rate (%) (Total) 6.6 7.7 9.5 14.1 5.1
Sources: JLL Akershus Eiendom International Office Markets 44
€/m2/year 35 Nordic Office Rent 700 Development 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 2011 1997 2017 1998 1999 2012 2016 2013 2015 2014 2010 2001 2007 2002 2006 2009 2003 2005 2008 2004 2000
Oslo prime rent Source: Helsinki prime rent JLL Stockholm prime rent Akershus Eiendom Copenhagen prime rent
36 Nordic Vacancy 20 % Development 18 %
16 %
14 %
12 %
10 %
8 %
6 %
4 %
2 %
0 % 2011 1997 2017 1998 1999 2012 2016 2013 2015 2014 2010 2001 2007 2002 2006 2009 2003 2005 2008 2004 2000
Oslo vacancy rate Source: Helsinki vacancy rate JLL Stockholm vacancy rate Akershus Eiendom Copenhagen vacancy rate International Office Markets 45
37 Nordic Yield 7.50 %
Development 7.00 %
6.50 %
6.00 %
5.50 %
5.00 %
4.50 %
4.00 %
3.50 % 2011 1997 2017 1998 1999 2012 2016 2013 2015 2014 2010 2001 2007 2002 2006 2009 2003 2005 2008 2004 2000
Oslo prime yield Source: Helsinki prime yield JLL Stockholm prime yield Akershus Eiendom Copenhagen prime yield
€/m2 38 Prime Value Index 20 000 18 000 Prime rent/prime yield 16 000
14 000
12 000
10 000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0 2011 1997 2017 1998 1999 2012 2016 2013 2015 2014 2010 2001 2007 2002 2006 2009 2003 2005 2008 2004 2000
Oslo value Source: Helsinki value JLL Stockholm value Akershus Eiendom Copenhagen value The Retail Market 46
The Retail Market
Status years. The low growth can be explained by developed. High-street retail vacancy in the The consumer confidence index (CCI) the fact that online sales continued to gain prime area is still close to zero. was strong during 2017, a trend that has market share in the Norwegian market. continued in 2018. Retail sales volume In addition, the Norwegian consumer has The retail investment market (excluding motor vehicles) is up 2.2 % year- changed, and the future of retail is about The Norwegian transaction market still has on-year by January 2018 and the long-term experiences. Shopping centres are currently a solid demand for retail properties, but trend in retail sales has shown a relatively experiencing a trend where F&B and the 2017 volume is lower compared to the stable increase since autumn 2016. Going entertainment replace traditional retailers. previous two years, with close to 70 retail forward, retail spending is expected to The centres able to adapt to the market property transactions and approximately increase based on solid employment change, as well as to take advantage of NOK 13 billion; this is about 15 % of the total growth, rising real wages and a continued e-commerce, are predicted to be the future transaction volume for 2017. There were strong consumer confidence. winners. few regular, larger shopping centres sold. About 50 % of the retail assets acquired in The retail market is currently in a phase of The Oslo high-street market 2017 were big-box retail, which accounted change, where the retailers are consolidating The retail high-street leasing activity to approximately 35 % of the total retail and creating new distribution strategies. remains low globally. In the short term, the volume. The e-commerce market in Norway supply of space in this segment is higher continues to grow rapidly, and the future of than the demand. Prime rent levels remain retail will be a combination of offline and stable at NOK 23,500 per m², but the market online. is currently perceived as “tenant friendly”. However, due to the low activity in the The shopping centre market leasing market, conclusive evidence of According to Kvarud Analyse, the 60 largest rents decreasing does not exist. Rent levels shopping centres in Norway experienced a for secondary locations are still expected turnover growth of approximately 1.3 % in to increase in the coming couple of years, 2017, which is the lowest growth rate in 20 as new parts of the Oslo city centre are The Retail Market 47
Retail volume index Retail year-on-year growth 39 Norwegian Retail 140 10 % Volume Index 130 8 % 2005–2018
120 5 % Season adjusted volume index, 2010=100 110 3 %
Retail sales has shown a relatively stable increase since autumn 2016 100 0 % and is up 2.2 % year-on-year.
90 -3 %
80 -5 %
70 -8 % Jul 11 Jul 17 Jul 12 Jul 16 Jul 13 Jul 15 Jul 14 Jan 11 Jul 10 Jul 07 Jan 17 Jul 09 Jul 06 Jan 12 Jul 05 Jul 08 Jan 16 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 18 Jan 10 Jan Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 06 Jan 05 Jan 08
Retail year-on-year growth Source: Retail volume index Statistics Norway
m2/year 40 Retail Construction 1 000 000 Q1 2001–Q4 2017
800 000 Annual 4 quarter moving average.
600 000 Permitted and started retail construction in both Norway as a whole and Oslo is increasing, while completed are decreasing. 400 000
200 000
0 11 Q1 17 Q1 17 12 Q1 16 Q1 13 Q1 15 Q1 14 Q1 01 Q1 10 Q1 07 Q1 02 Q1 06 Q1 Q1 09 03 Q1 05 Q1 08 Q1 04 Q1 04
Permitted Norway Permitted Greater Oslo Source: Started Norway Started Greater Oslo Statistics Norway Completed Norway Completed Greater Oslo The Retail Market 48
m2/year 41 Prime Rent for 30 000 Unit Shops Oslo, Karl Johans Gate 25 000 2000-2018 20 000 Prime rents for unit shops stable at 23,500 per m² 15 000
10 000
5 000
0 11 Q1 17 Q1 17 12 Q1 16 Q1 13 Q1 15 Q1 14 Q1 18 Q1 01 Q1 10 Q1 07 Q1 02 Q1 06 Q1 Q1 09 03 Q1 05 Q1 08 Q1 04 Q1 04 00 Q1
Source: Akershus Eiendom/JLL
42 CCI Norway 15 2014-2018 YTD 10
Consumer confidence fell in February, but is still strong and points to solid 5 consumption growth going forward 0
-5
-10
-15 Apr 2017 Jun 2017 Aug 2017 Feb 2017 Apr 2016 Apr 2015 Apr 2014 Jun 2016 Aug 2016 Jun 2015 Oct 2016 Jun 2014 Aug 2015 Oct 2015 Feb 2016 Dec 2017 Aug 2014 Oct 2014 Feb 2015 Feb 2014 Feb 2018 Dec 2016 Dec 2015 Dec 2014
Source: Opinion AS 43 Retail Rents in the Karl Johans Gate Area
20 000 + 5-8 000 Source: 16-20 000 3-5 000 Akershus Eiendom 12-16 000 -3 000 8-12 000
44 Retail Rents in Bogstadveien / Hegdehaugsveien
20 000 + 5-8 000 Source: 16-20 000 3-5 000 Akershus Eiendom 12-16 000 -3 000 8-12 000 The Hotel Market 50
The Hotel Market
Norway of market) increased 5.5 %, while leisure- the OCC increased 4.4 % to 67 %. This The strong hotel market performance in related guest nights increased 2.4 %. The followed a 1.3 % increase in total guest 2015 and 2016 continued in 2017, driven by growth in total guest nights of 3.6 %, nights, coupled with a decrease in available growth in both the average daily rates (up resulted in total hotel revenue reaching rooms of 4.5 % due to Britannia Hotel being 4.7 % to NOK 946) and the occupancy rate NOK 3.3 billion (up 8.2 % over 2016). Oslo renovated. The business-related guest nights (up 2.8 % to 56 %). As a result, RevPAR remains the largest market in Norway with increased 23.3 %, while leisure decreased increased 7.6 % in 2017, and stands at NOK a 22.7 % market share. 17.3 %. Foreign guest nights (15 % of total) 529. Total hotel revenue amounted to NOK decreased 6.6 %, while domestic guest 14.7 billion, a 7 % increase over 2016. 2017 Bergen nights increased 2.7 %. The Trondheim saw an 8.2 % increase in business-related RevPAR decreased 5.7 % to NOK 624 in hotel revenue in 2017 was NOK 706 million, guest nights, which accounted for 42 % 2017, following an 8.4 % OCC decrease to a 4.8 % total market share. of total guest nights, while leisure-related 62 %. The ADR increased 3.0 % to 1,008. guest nights remained largely flat. In 2017, The decrease in the OCC follows a 16.7 % Stavanger the domestic visitors (72 % of the total increase in available rooms, while total Stavanger saw a 6.8 % increase in RevPAR market) recorded a 4.4 %, while foreign guest nights grew 6.8 %. This follows an 11 % in 2017, driven by a 7.3 % increase in the guest nights decreased 0.6 %. increase in domestic guest nights, while OCC. The ADR decreased 0.4 %. While foreign guest nights grew only marginally total guest nights decreased 1.2 %, room Oslo by 0.7 %. The leisure and business markets capacity decreased by 9.1 % as Radisson Blu In 2017, RevPAR was up 11.8 % to NOK 741, grew substantially, at 11.8 % and 10.3 %, Atlantic Hotel was closed for refurbishment. as the occupancy rate (OCC) increased respectively. The Bergen hotel revenue in Leisure-related guest nights decreased with 6.3 % to 73 % and the average daily 2017 was NOK 1.26 billion, an 8.6 % total 12 %, while business-related guest nights rate (ADR) increased 5.2 % to NOK 1,014. market share. grew 9.2 %. Foreign guest nights decreased The growth was fuelled by an 8.8 % growth 5.3 %, and domestic increased 0.2 %. The in domestic guest nights (62 % of total Trondheim Stavanger hotel revenue in 2017 was NOK market), as foreign guest nights decreased In 2017, RevPAR increased 12 % to NOK 493 million, a 3.4 % total market share. 3.9 %. Business-related guest nights (42 % 597. The ADR grew 7.2 % toNOK 895, while The Hotel Market 51
No. of guest nights per month in thousands (1 000) 45 Volume of Guest 1 600
Nights in Norwegian 1 400 Hotels 2003–2017 1 200
The graph shows the split between the volume of foreign 1 000 and domestic guest nights in all hotels of Norway. Figures are seasonally adjusted. 800
600
400
200
0 11 Jan 17 Jan 12 Jan 16 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 10 Jan 10 07 Jan 09 Jan 06 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 04 Jan
Domestic guests Source: Foreign guests Statistics Norway
RevPAR 46 Real RevPAR 1 100 2003–2017 1 000 900 The graph shows the 800 development in real RevPAR in today's values. All figures are 700 seasonally adjusted. 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 11 Jan 17 Jan 12 Jan 16 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 10 Jan 10 07 Jan 09 Jan 06 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 04 Jan
Oslo Source: Norway Statistics Norway The Hotel Market 52
m2/year 47 Hotel Construction 250 000 2001–2017
200 000 Permitted and started hotel floor space for Norway and Oslo decreased in 2017 following several strong years. Completed 150 000 space increased substantially on a national level following the spike in building permits in previous years. Completed space 100 000 in Oslo also saw an increase, although lower than would be expected considering permitted and started space regiestered during the past 18 months. 50 000
0 11 Q1 17 Q1 17 12 Q1 16 Q1 13 Q1 15 Q1 14 Q1 01 Q1 10 Q1 07 Q1 02 Q1 06 Q1 Q1 09 03 Q1 05 Q1 08 Q1 04 Q1 04
Permitted Norway Permitted Greater Oslo Source: Started Norway Started Greater Oslo Statistics Norway Completed Norway Completed Oslo
48 Hotel Transactions Since Autumn 2017 Report
Property/location Rooms Price NOK Seller Buyer million Comfort Hotel Ringerike, Hønefoss 82 n.a. Klækken Hotell, U E Carlsen AS Tronrud Eiendom Gaustablikk Høyfjellshotell, Rjukan 91 n.a. Vätterledens Invest Svartdal family Hotel Victoria, Stavanger 107 n.a. Catella Real Estate Glastad Holding Hummeren Hotel, Tananger - Stavanger 30 n.a. Camar, Verket Investering, Svein Strøm Invest (91 %) Alto Holding (91 %) Norrøna Hotell, Bodø 100 n.a. Stadssalg Corponor Portfolio of four hotels 524 750 Strawberry Properties Midstar - Clarion Collection Hotell Tollboden, Drammen 127 Strawberry Properties Midstar - Clarion Hotel Ernst, Kristiansand 200 Strawberry Properties Midstar - Clarion Collection Hotel With, Tromsø 76 Strawberry Properties Midstar - Clarion Collection Hotel Aurora, Tromsø 121 Strawberry Properties Midstar
The Logistics Market 54
The Logistics Market
Since our previous report published in An interesting aspect of the logistics real volume of more than NOK 10.3 billion autumn 2017, we have not changed our view estate market going forward are the effects which also includes land for logistics and on Greater Oslo logistics rent levels, prime imposed by the substantial growth in industrial purposes. Since our previous rent still stands at 1,200 NOK/m² per year. e-commerce. We have still yet to see the report, Sanitetveien 1 at Lahaugmoen Observed rent levels are high from Berger full impact this will have on the demand has been sold, and Aberdeen Property to Vinterbro, as these hubs are very popular. for warehouses/distribution facilities, Investors has acquired Bølerveien 65 and 61 Their closeness to effective intersections but we are currently in a phase where the located at Berger; the latter are two different with the main highway E6, short driving traditional supply chain is being challenged transactions with Wittusen & Jensen and distance to Oslo, and the availability of by the consumers’ changing way of Skanska Norge AS as the tenants. At the vacant land plots, make these hubs a good shopping. We expect to see an increase in same time a closed-ended fund set up by alternative to the relatively fully developed both construction of, as well as investment Carnegie has acquired Brennaveien 20B area around the Alnabru national cross activity in, the segment because of this. located at Skytta, a closed-ended fund dock terminal (Alna/Nyland). set up by Arctic Securities has acquired a The vacancy in the greater Oslo region warehouse in Rakkestad with Continental 2017 was a year with very high activity, in measured as floor space available now or Tires as the tenant. The latter has also the leasing market where approximately within 3 months, stands at 3 %, down one acquired a property located in Lier with Kid 145 000 m² entered the market. Going percentage point since our previous report. Interiør as the tenant. forward, completion of warehouses will All regions have experienced reduction decline from current levels. Our research in vacancy and the vacancy rates for the Based on recent market activity, we have shows that there will be approximately northern, southern, western regions are 3 %, kept our prime yield estimate unchanged; 25 000 m² and 69 000 m² entering the 4.7 % and 7.0 %, respectively. The vacancy it stands at 5.0 % for a 10-year investment market in 2018 and 2019. Figures for 2019 rate for space within the city limits is 1.5 %. grade property. The yield estimate is can still change since construction time for relevant for properties within the prime and a warehouse is approximately 12 months. The activity in the transaction market secondary areas, from Berger to Vinterbro. has been high during 2017 and we have registered 45 + transactions with a total The Logistics Market 55
49 Rent Levels Gardemoen March 2017
Kløfta
Berger
Lillestrøm Groruddalen
Other Oslo Oslo West Other
Regnbuen / Berghagan
Ski
Vestby
Rent NOK/m2: Source: Normal - high standard/ Akershus Eiendom Top-standard and new build
1 000–1 200 800–1 000 700–800 –750 The Logistics Market 56
NOK/m2/year 50 Prime Rent for 1 400 Warehouse/Logistics 1 200
Greater Oslo region. 1 000
Prime rent, seen in the central parts of Groruddalen close to the Alnabru 800 rail terminal, is at NOK 1 200 per m²
600
400
200
0 11 Q1 17 Q1 17 12 Q1 16 Q1 13 Q1 15 Q1 14 Q1 18 Q1 01 Q1 10 Q1 07 Q1 02 Q1 06 Q1 Q1 09 03 Q1 05 Q1 08 Q1 04 Q1 04
Source: Akershus Eiendom
m2/year 51 Logistics 1 800 000 Construction 1 600 000 2001–2017 1 400 000
Annualized 4 quarter moving 1 200 000 average. 1 000 000 Completed projects in Greater Oslo is somewhat down over the 800 000 past two quarters 600 000
400 000
200 000
0 11 Q1 17 Q1 17 12 Q1 16 Q1 13 Q1 15 Q1 14 Q1 01 Q1 10 Q1 07 Q1 02 Q1 06 Q1 Q1 09 03 Q1 05 Q1 08 Q1 04 Q1 04
Permitted Norway Permitted Greater Oslo Source: Started Norway Started Greater Oslo Statistics Norway Completed Norway Completed Greater Oslo
The Residential Market 58
The Residential Market
Residential prices dwellings in Norway is NOK 52,200 per July 2018, which will remove some special The Norwegian residential prices reached a m² (7.2 % higher than at February 2017). limitations for Oslo and establish common peak in April 2017, and between April and Oslo has the highest prices of NOK 79,700 loan rules for the whole country. December 2017, the average of all residential per m², Stavanger is at NOK 57,700 per m², prices dropped by 6.1 %, according to while Bergen, Trondheim and Tromsø have Residential construction Real Estate Norway. In the same period, average prices between NOK 54,000 - 57,000 The residential construction figures are still residential prices in Oslo decreased by per m². at high levels, and the number of residential 11.2 %. However, the price reduction units under construction increased by 4.5 % may have been brief, as prices have risen According to Real Estate Norway, 86,627 during 2017. However, the figure reached 3.1 % and 4.1 % for Norway and Oslo, existing homes were sold in Norway in a peak in July 2017 and has since then respectively, during the two first months of 2017, which is about the same level as last decreased by 3 %. As the sales volume of 2018. Seasonally adjusted, this amounts to a year. Apartment units accounted for 55 % new dwellings has continued to decrease, marginal rise. of the sales volume. As of February 2018, new construction volume is expected to 13,129 units are sold, which is 5.8 % more decrease further, at least by 15 %. The volume The residential price movements in the than same period in 2017. When it comes of completed residential units has remained largest cities has been rather similar to new homes, however, the sales volume relatively stable since the beginning of 2014, over the last year, with the exception for the two month-period ending February at just below 30,000 units per year. In 2017, of Oslo, which has the highest y-o-y is 18 % lower than for the same period last this number increased to 31,500 units, and decrease with 9.1 % measured February year (ECON Nye Boliger). it is likely to rise to more than 35,000 by to February. Trondheim, Bergen and early 2019, due to the high volume under Tromsø experienced a decrease of about In January 2017, the banks were forced construction. 2 - 3 %, while the prices in Stavanger and by the Norwegian Financial Supervisory Kristiansand have been rather unchanged. Authority to tighten their credit policies in order to dampen the price growth. In According to ECON Nye Boliger, as of March 2018, the Authority proposed new February 2018, the average price for new home loan regulations applicable from The Residential Market 59
Average sales price, NOK/m2 % annual price change 52 Residential Prices 40 000 40 % 2004–2018
30 000 30 % Nominal values
Residential prices decreased by an 20 000 20 % annual 2,3 % from February 2017 to February 2018.
10 000 10 %
0 0 %
-10 000 -10 % Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 15 Jul 14 Jan 11 Jul 10 Jul 07 Jan 17 Jul 09 Jul 06 Jan 12 Jul 05 Jul 08 Jan 16 Jan 13 Jul 04 Jan 15 Jan 18 Jan 14 Jan 10 Jan Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 06 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 04
Year-on-year change, by month, % Sources: Average residential price NOK/m² Eiendom Norge Finn.no Eiendomsverdi
Volume of residential units 53 Residential 50 000 Construction 45 000
in Norway 40 000 2008–2018 35 000
Units under contstruction increased 30 000 by 4.5 % and completed dwellings increased by 7.5 % during 2017. 25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0 2011 2017 2012 2016 2013 2015 2014 2018 2010 2009 2008
Residential units under construction Source: Completed residential units, last 12 months Statistics Norway
Definitions 61
Definitions
Area definitions BTA Gross area BRA Usable area P-rom Living area – residential BYA Foot print of the building
Abbreviations NAV Norwegian Labour and Welfare Agency CBD Central Business District CPI Consumer Price Index NOK Norwegian Krone SSB Statistics Norway
Taxes and depreciation Depreciation Office buildings 2 % Warehouse/industrial 4 % Shopping centres 2 % Hotels 4 % Investments 10 % Document tax (stamp duty) 2.5 % of transaction value Property tax Depends on the county, many currently have a zero rate. Akershus Eiendom 62
Akershus Eiendom AS
Akershus Eiendom AS is an independent Manager Petter Nylend Leasing Ole Christian Iversen property advisor focusing on commercial Trond Aslaksen property; offices, warehouse facilities, Rune Arvesen shops/shopping centres, hotels, land, Transactions Jørgen Haga Anders Heffermehl and related types of property. Akershus Roar Sandnes Ole-Jacob Leirskar Eiendom advises its clients on sales, Per Kumle Stig Basing leasing, development, research, valuations Trond Aslaksen Jonas Myhre and other areas of commercial property Christian Valdem Remi Olsen business. Akershus Eiendom has during the Knut Berget Jørgen Anker-Rasch past five years handled sales transactions Jacob A. L'Orsa Lise Kaupang for properties of a total value of more than Vigdis Sundvoll NOK 57,5 billion, and has handled leasing of more than 700 000 m² of office space. Research/valuation Ragnar Eggen Tenant representation Lars Føyen Kinserdal Akershus Eiendom is associated with Erik André Bratt Anne Kolstad Skogheim Kyte Næringsmegling in Bergen and JLL Karin Manengen Christoffer Rohde-Hansen internationally. Birgitte Heskestad Ellingsen Andreas Egset Tor-Øyvind Skjelvik Administration Hilde Bang William Nevstad Christine Lunde Krosby Sindre Bråtebæk Andreas Sæther Lasse Bjørndahl Board of directors Roar Sandnes Adam Ingwall Jørgen Haga Petter Nylend Per Kumle Ole Christian Iversen Geir Saastad Ragnar Eggen Akershus Eiendom 63
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