STOCK: NVDA | 9/18/20 FRESH LOOK

NVIDIA GREEN YELLOW RED LIGHT LIGHT LIGHT (TICKER: NVDA) LBIR Recommendation

Stock Price: $500.6 (9/16/20) Company Size: $309.2B Author: Madhu Chaudhary

Company Rank: 121 Sector: Technology Industry: Hardware

Nvidia is a technology company that develops Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) for gaming, data centers and professional services industries. It also develops System on Chips (SOCs) for mobile and automotive segments.

IN THIS FRESH LOOK WE’LL COVER:

 Summary of the Business  Nvidia develops graphics cards for the PC gaming Grab-and-Go

industry. It has extended its target markets to data THESIS centers, AI, and VR by providing computing An investment in Nvidia is a play solutions through its high-performance GPUs. on the growth in gaming industry as  Recent Developments well as advancement of data center, It is a beneficiary of the work from home economy AI and machine learning and is enjoying strong tailwinds in both data center technologies that require high and gaming segments. It is expanding organically performance computing. The through its upgraded GPU technology as well as company is a dominant player in the inorganically through its recent acquisition of Arm accelerated computing solutions Ltd. market segment. Nvidia’s success  Competitive Environment depends upon its ability to attract Nvidia competes with several accelerated additional clients from different computing solutions providers. It has been able to industry verticals to its high- dominate the market through consistent innovation. performance GPU technology while consistently upgrading its product  Conclusions/Recommendations portfolio through research and Nvidia dominates its core gaming and data center innovation. segments and is making major gains in AI through its GPUs. NVDA’s fundamentals remain strong and we assign “GREEN LIGHT” to the company.

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0.94 STOCK: NVDA | 9/18/20 FRESH LOOK

Data as of 9/16/20 unless specified

Revenue Fwd $15.9B Enterprise Value: $296.9B Market Cap: $309.2B (TTM): ($13.1B) Fwd (TTM) 19.4x YTD Return: 108.4% RSI: 51.73 Price/Sales: (23.7x) Gross Margin Revenue Growth 65.4% 28.3% ROIC (TTM): 49.8% (TTM): (TTM, YoY): 200-day Moving 52-Week High: $589.1 52-Week Low $169.3 $362.9 Avg.

EBITDA $5.81B CFO $5.58B FCF $5.19B

Insider Transactions (2020): Jensun (CEO) has sold 250,000 shares, Colette Kress (CFO) has sold 13,500 shares, Ajay Puri (EVP) has sold 84,460 shares, Mark Stevens (Director) has sold 200,506 shares

processing needs of several big data dependent SUMMARY OF BUSINESS  technologies such as cloud computing, AI, deep Nvidia is a technology company that designs and learning, data analytics and machine learning. In markets Graphic Processing Units (GPUs). GPUs order to further solidify its presence in the high- are high performance processors that elevate the performance computing market, it acquired visualization and gaming experience in PCs. Israeli data center networking and interconnect Besides, the company also designs System on solutions provider, Mellanox for $7 billion in Chips (SoCs) which are used in mobiles, 2019. In Q2 2021, Data center revenue exceeded autonomous robots, drones, autonomous cars, the gaming segment revenue for the first time, etc. and now contributes 45% of the overall revenue Cofounded in 1993 by Jensen Huang, who still as compared to just 6% in FY 16, growing at a serves as the CEO of the company, Nvidia CAGR of 72%. Coronavirus pandemic has also initially focused on developing high speed accelerated deployments of data centers across processors for the gaming industry, however in the world which has boosted demand for the last few years, the company has diversified its Nvidia’s GPUs. Its high-performance computing business portfolio across gaming, professional technology is used by every major cloud provider visualization, data centers, and automotive including AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud. It industries. holds over 90% share of accelerators used in supercomputing, including 8 out of the top 10 While Nvidia has completely dominated the supercomputers in the world. Additionally, Data gaming graphics card industry with a market center revenue is more profitable for the company share of around 70% which is 3x the revenue of as it generates higher gross margins as compared its nearest competitor, more recently, the to other segments. As a result, Nvidia’s gross company’s growth has been fueled by the profit margins have expanded from 57% in FY 16 booming cloud data center business segment. to 63% in FY 20. Nvidia’s GPUs serve as a solution for high speed

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0.94 STOCK: NVDA | 9/18/20 FRESH LOOK

In the professional visualization segment, Nvidia approval from regulatory authorities, if the deal serves the market with its Quadro GPUs which goes through, Nvidia will gain massive exposure are used by artists, engineers or designers to to the smartphone and IoT market segment and create ultra-realistic photos, 3D designs as well as will get an opportunity to expand its AI Virtual reality content for uses in several fields computing platform. such as architecture, automotive designing, As per company estimates, the combined entity’s media, and entertainment as well as surgical total addressable market is expected to grow to training for doctors, etc. $250 billion by 2023. Out of this, GPUs and In the Automotive segment, Nvidia offers a range microprocessors for Gaming PCs, consoles, of products designed for autonomous vehicles. smartphones, and tablet devices will constitute a Its Tesla GPUs are used for mapping and training TAM of $95 billion. The 2nd largest market deep neural networks using big data which are segment would be Data center with a TAM of $80 then executed on its DRIVE platform to run self- billion, closely followed by automotive, robots, driving vehicles. Although, majority of the and IoT having a TAM of $75 billion. revenue from this segment is driven by infotainment currently, the segment offers  RECENT DEVELOPMENTS attractive long term opportunity for the The ‘work from home’ economy has had a net company. positive impact on Nvidia’s business activities. Measures to cut down on operational spending Revenue Mix by companies have resulted in near-term headwinds in the smaller Professional 4% Gaming 5% visualization and Automotive segments, while, 9% Data Center digitization and ‘work from home’ have boosted demand for GPUs in the much larger data center 47% Professional as well as gaming segments. Visualization 35% Auto Financial and Operating Results In Q2 FY 21, Nvidia reported its highest ever total Other revenue of $3.87 billion, which represents YoY

growth of an impressive 50%. Not surprisingly, Source: Nvidia Corp. 10-K because of accelerated need for business More recently, Nvidia attracted investor attention digitization in the post pandemic world and after it announced acquisition of Arm Ltd. from increased deployment of public cloud servers Softbank Group for $40 billion which makes it the globally, Nvidia’s data center segment second largest tech acquisition of all time. Arm outperformed other segments and reported Ltd. is UK-based world’s largest microprocessor strong growth of 167% on a YoY basis. In this chip designer which licenses its technology to quarter, data center segment revenue exceeded semiconductor manufacturers and generates fees gaming segment's top-line for the first time. and royalties. Arm ltd.’s technology drives Another reason for this extraordinary growth in several devices from smartphones, smartwatches, data center segment was because of inclusion of cars to Internet of things and is believed to be sales from newly acquired Mellanox used by 70% of the world population. Subject to technologies. On an organic basis i.e. without

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0.94 STOCK: NVDA | 9/18/20 FRESH LOOK

including sales of Mellanox Technologies, impact was observed on the overall top-line of the Nvidia’s total revenue and data center segment company. revenue grew by 29% and 87% on a YoY basis which is still very strong as compared to its Organic revenue growth historical trends. 87.3% The gaming segment revenue was $1.65 billion, up 26% on a YoY basis. Gaming has turned out to 26.0% be a leading form of entertainment globally as -30.2% people are forced to stay at home. The number of -46.9% daily active gamers on Steam, an online PC game Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 distributor has increased by 25% from pre- Gaming Data Center pandemic levels. According to NPD Group, Professional Visualization Auto videogame sales continue to remain strong in the Source: Nvidia Corp. pandemic economy. In August 2020, overall sales rose 37% YoY, while YTD sales are up 23% from As discussed earlier, data center revenue growth same period in 2019. The gaming industry has is also margin accretive for the company. In Q2 observed rapid changes in recent years and is FY 21, Nvidia reported a gross profit margin of expected to enjoy secular growth in the medium 66% which represents an expansion of 6 to long term as Esports trend continues to become percentage points as compared to same period stronger, thereby leading to higher demand for last year. Operating margins also strongly advanced hardware solutions. As per Newzoo, a improved by 8 percentage points to 39%. gaming industry research and analytics firm, the Company’s margins will continue to expand Esports audience in 2019 reached almost 450 going forward as a result of revenue mix shift. million and is expected to increase to 646 million by 2023, growing at a CAGR of 10%. To remain the most widely used graphic cards option in the PC gaming industry, Nvidia has consistently introduced upgrades to its GPUs including the recent launch of its Ampere-based processor GeForce RTX 30 series. Professional visualization and Automotive segment of the company took a direct hit from the coronavirus pandemic and delivered Source: Nvidia investor presentation disappointing results in Q2 FY 21. While revenue from professional visualization segment was Ampere architecture launched down by 30% YoY because of lower commercial Nvidia has launched its upgraded range of GPU demand amidst closure of several offices globally, offerings that run on newly developed Ampere automotive segment was down by 47% YoY as microarchitecture, which is a successor to the auto manufacturing activity remained depressed Turing architecture. In May 2020, Nvidia globally. Since these 2 segments are considerable launched its first GPU to use Ampere technology smaller than other Nvidia verticals, no significant “A100” which has been specifically designed for

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0.94 STOCK: NVDA | 9/18/20 FRESH LOOK

data centers. A100 consists of more than 54 billion subject to regulatory approvals. Arm Ltd. is the transistors which makes it the world’s largest largest designer of microprocessor chips that 7nm processor. Nvidia considers ampere licenses its highly efficient technology to technology to deliver largest leap in performance semiconductor manufacturers around the globe within its 8 generations of GPUs as it delivers and earns license fees and royalties in return. performance which is 20x to that of its Arm’s chip designs are currently used in more predecessors. Google cloud was the first to bring than 50% of the smart devices in the world A100 to the market and it is now being including Apple and Samsung devices. With this incorporated in data centers by all other cloud acquisition, Nvidia can leverage Arm’s industry computing service providers globally. leading position in larger end markets to expand its AI computing platform, while Arm can make More recently, for the gaming industry, Nvidia major headways in data center and servers launched GeForce RTX 30 series graphics card market segment because of Nvidia’s dominant which are powered by Ampere technology. The position in those industry segments. Overall, this company claims that the new graphic cards offer acquisition significantly increases Nvidia’s up to 2x the performance delivered by the Turing opportunity set. Additionally, despite the based 20 series. premium valuation, management expects the deal to be immediately accretive to earnings. Here is a video of Jason Huang commenting on the deal. Please note that this transaction will have to go through several regulatory hurdles before becoming a reality. As discussed, Arm Ltd. licenses its CPU technology to companies like Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung, AMD, Amazon, Intel, etc. some of which are direct competitors of Nvidia and this acquisition will result in Nvidia Source: Nvidia company presentation competing with the same companies which licenses its processor technology. Nvidia has LB•LOGIC We like the fact that claimed that post acquisition, Arm will maintain NVIDIA is continually upping its game its customer neutrality and continue to operate its by innovating and not just relying on the open-licensing model, however, this will restrict secular growth forces at play in its end its ability to generate synergies by reducing the markets of gaming and data centers. The level of coordination between the two units. The company is set to outperform the deal is expected to face major regulatory hurdle industry as a result. by both UK and Chinese authorities. The US- China trade relations have worsened further after US decision to ban Tik-Tok for protecting national security. Earlier, the US had restricted Acquisition of Arm Ltd. the use of Huawei products by US based Nvidia has confirmed that it will be acquiring companies. Additionally, Trump administration Arm Ltd. from Softbank Group for $40 billion had last year blocked Singapore-based

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0.94 STOCK: NVDA | 9/18/20 FRESH LOOK

Broadcom’s $117 billion takeover of Qualcomm Liquidity and balance sheet stating that this transaction would again Nvidia is a strong cash flow generating company. undermine US national security. With the Tech- For the first 6 months of FY 21, the company war already heating up, Chinese authorities reported a cash flow from operations of $2.5 would not want Arm Ltd. to become a US entity billion, which represents an increase of 50% on as US may use Arm’s IP technology as a YoY basis primarily because of strong top-line bargaining tool and may restrict Arm from growth. Free cash flow also increased from $1.4 licensing its designs to Chinese semiconductor billion YTD FY 20 to $2.1 billion YTD FY 21, companies. Arm Ltd. on the other hand views which is an increase of 50%. Please note that this Chinese markets as a major catalyst to its future excludes $7 billion acquisition of Mellanox growth. Around 25% of its business comes from technologies in Q2 FY 21. China and it would surely not like to lose its Chinese customers if the deal is enforced. Nvidia issued $5 billion of notes in March this year and ended Q2 with long-term debt of $7

billion and cash position of $11 billion on its balance sheet. Given the terms of the Arm Ltd. LB•LOGIC Even if regulators place acquisition deal, Nvidia will be required to pay stringent conditions on NVIDIA to $12 billion to Softbank in cash, with $2 billion to provide approval for the ARM deal, the be paid at signing. This means it would need to company will still be better off with the raise some capital to finance this acquisition. With ARM assets than without them. At the end debt to EBITDA of 1.17x and substantial free cash of the day, the ARM deal provides the flow generation, we believe the company will not fastest way for NVIDIA to disrupt the face any significant hurdle in financing the deal. traditional CPU based industry verticals by combining its AI technology with COMPANY MANAGEMENT ARM’s CPU based architecture.  Nvidia was founded in 1993 by Jensen Huang, Chris Malachowsky, and Curtis Priem. During that period, Nvidia was competing against 70 Outlook and estimates other graphics chip companies, however, most of Nvidia has given an outlook for $4.4 billion in them closed down in the next few years due to revenue for Q3 FY 2021 which represents a YoY financial hardship. Even Nvidia failed to gain increase of 46%. Please note that this also includes traction in its initial years and had to let go almost revenue from Mellanox technologies acquired at half of its workforce. After raising funds from the beginning of Q2 FY 21. While the gaming Sequoia Capital and Sutter Hill Ventures, it segment is estimated to be up by 25% sequentially released its first graphics card in 1995 and despite because of the upcoming holiday season as well several challenges over the years Nvidia has as strong demand from people staying at home grown into a market leader in accelerated because of the pandemic, data center revenue is computing processor market segment. estimated to be up by low to mid-single digit Jensen Huang has been serving as the CEO and percent sequentially. Professional visualization president of the company since its inception in and Automotive segment are expected to 1993. He has been the leading force behind continue struggling in the next quarter. Company’s consistent innovation and the growth

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0.94 STOCK: NVDA | 9/18/20 FRESH LOOK

it has achieved in both gaming and data center products suppliers such as Ambarella, Samsung, industry over the years. In 2017, he was ranked at Broadcom, Qualcomm, REC etc. #1 on the list of top-100 best performing CEOs in In its core gaming segment, Nvidia faces the world. Prior to founding Nvidia, he worked competition primarily from AMD graphics cards. at LSI Logic and AMD, Nvidia’s prime However, Nvidia has maintained its dominance competitor in the Gaming industry. He holds a over AMD with a market share of 70%. This is BSEE degree from and because Nvidia has always led the gaming an MSEE degree from . He industry by innovating newer and upgraded holds 3.77% of the total shareholding of the technologies in gaming graphics, while AMD has company. Here is a video of Jensen’s interview always played catch up. AMD’s strategy has been for CNBC’s show Mad Money. to capture value driven markets by introducing Colette Kress has served as the CFO of Nvidia lower performance products but at a lower price since 2013 and has worked for 25 years in several point. In order to capture market share in the finance roles at major technology companies. lucrative high end graphics card markets, AMD Prior to NVIDIA, she served as the CFO of Cisco’s has announced the release of its “Big Navi” GPU Business technology and operations finance later this year, however, NVIDIA has already organization. Previously, she spent 13 years at launched its Ampere based GeForce RTX 30 Microsoft at several finance positions including series graphics cards which delivers 2x CFO of the servers and tools division. Colette performance than its predecessors and this holds a B. Sc in finance from University of technology would be difficult to match by AMD. Arizona and an MBA from Southern Methodist In the data center segment, Nvidia GPUs are University. considered to be the best in class solution for Jay Puri has served as the executive vice president accelerated computing and is used by all major of the worldwide field operations since 2005. He public cloud service providers. Nvidia GPUs are oversees sales and marketing of all Nvidia also used in 8 out of 10 largest supercomputers in solutions globally. Prior to this, he spent 22 years the world. Intel is expected to release its GPU in at Sun Microsystems and held several leadership late 2021, however, it will take a long time until it roles in sales and marketing. Jay also has is able to match performance delivered by Nvidia experience of working at Hewlett-Packard, Booz GPUs. Allen & Hamilton and Texas Instruments. He Additionally, post-acquisition of Arm Ltd., holds an MBA from Harvard Business School. Nvidia will own the IP for microprocessors that Executives and directors together hold 4.5% of powers technology devices used by almost 70% the company’s shares as of March 22, 2020. of the global population in some form or the other. COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT  Nvidia operates in a highly competitive and fast evolving technology sector where it competes with other graphics card and accelerated computing solutions providers such as AMD,

Intel, Xilinx etc. as well as System on Chips (SoCs)

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0.94 STOCK: NVDA | 9/18/20 FRESH LOOK

 CONCLUSION / RECOMMENDATION Nvidia is a leader in GPU market segment and is long term upside to investors. Nvidia has secured a beneficiary of the work from home economy a dominant position in the GPU industry through because of increased deployment of data centers consistent research and innovation under the worldwide. As a result, company’s stock price leadership of its visionary founder and CEO. has rallied multi folds from the lows it observed Whether the Arm Ltd. deal goes through or not, in March. It is currently trading at a price to sales we believe that Nvidia is in the driving seat of the ratio of 23.7x which is considerably higher than AI revolution globally. We assign a “GREEN LIGHT” its 5-year average of around 10x. Despite rating to Nvidia. premium valuation, we believe NVIDIA offers

◼ Stock Chart for Nvidia (NVDA)

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0.94 STOCK: NVDA | 9/18/20 FRESH LOOK

◼ Performance Data FISCAL YEAR 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL (%) 53.9% NM 179% 69.3% 103.6% 81% GROSS MARGIN (%) 55.5% 56.1% 58.8% 59.9% 61.2% 62% EARNINGS (GAAP) (MILLIONS USD) 759 747 1934 3210 3804 2846 YoY Earnings Growth (%) 53% -1.6% 158.9% 66% 18.5% -25.2% REVENUE (MILLIONS USD) 4682 5010 6910 9714 11716 10918 YoY Revenue Growth (%) 13.4% 7% 37.9% 40.6% 20.6% -6.8%

◼ Valuation Data FISCAL YEAR 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 SHARE PRICE (USD) 21.2 30.7 100.3 240.1 153.5 289.7 SHARES OUTSTANDING (MILLIONS) 545 539 585 606 606 612 MARKET CAP (MILLIONS USD) 11576 16541 58664 145476 92991 177296 PRICE/SALES RATIO 2.47 3.30 8.49 14.96 7.94 16.24

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0.94 STOCK: NVDA | 9/18/20 FRESH LOOK

A word about our Fresh Looks: These reports are meant to be produced quickly, giving our Portfolio Manager the information he needs to make an investment decision in a short timeframe, as markets often move quickly after earnings announcements. You will notice the “Traffic Light” at the top. This is a scale indicating the likelihood that we follow a name in future quarters, with the intention of producing a rating of Buy/Hold/Sell after we study the company further. “Green Light” is roughly equivalent to “Buy” after we study a company more than once. “Yellow Light” approximately means “Hold” and “Red Light” would indicate a sell and an end to our continuing coverage of a company. By making these reports public, we intend to give the broader investing community a window into the Left Brain investment process. Since many of the names we cover lack Wall Street research, sometimes these Quick Looks will be some of the only publicly available analysis on a particular stock/bond. We believe that even our rapid-fire reports on certain names will provide great value for the reader. Given the time-sensitive nature of Fresh Looks, they are raw, unfiltered documents. You may see a typo here or there, or perhaps a note from an analyst written directly to our PM, Noland Langford. That is just part of the process. The methodology here is the analyst reads the most recent earnings call, along with the Management Discussion & Analysis section of the most recent Quarterly Report, along with compiling the key quantitative metrics that we value most at Left Brain. The result is a short report that gives us just enough information to take a position in securities where time is of the essence: sometimes the market doesn’t give us enough time to consider every angle before we take action. We hope you find these previously “internal use only” documents useful in your understanding of the investment markets.

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0.94 STOCK: NVDA | 9/18/20 FRESH LOOK

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