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FILE COPY Report No. AF-71a

Public Disclosure Authorized This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views.

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized

THE ECONOMY OF

THE REPUBLIC OF CHAD Public Disclosure Authorized

March 15, 1968 Public Disclosure Authorized

Africa Department CURRENCY EQUIVA:LENTS

Currency unit - CFA francs (CFAF)

U.S. $1 = CFAF 246.85 CFAF 100 = U. S. $0. 4051 CFAF 1, 000, 000 = U.S. $4, 051.04 Foreword

This is the first report by the Bank on the Chad economy. Because of the report's comprehensive nature including its discussion of institutions in Chad, it will be retaLined for refer- ence purposes. It will be updated whenever warranted by economic circumstances. The report was prepared by Mr. Paul E. Booz with the assistance of Mr. Oliviero Pesce after a mission to Chad in April, 1967.

- ii -

TABLE OF CONTIETS

FOREWORD i

TABLE OF CONTENTS

BASIC DATA iv

MAPS vi

SUM IARY AlD CONCLUSIONS Xi

I. INTRODUCTION 1

Location and Climate 1 Soils 2 Population 2 Health and Nutrition 3 Literacy and Education 3 Social and Political Development 4 Technical Assistance 6 International and Regional Ties 6

II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELORFIEWTS 7

A. The Structure of the Economy 7

B. Production Trends 8

Agriculture 9 Livestock 16 Fisheries 19 Gum Arabic 19 Industry 19 Ilining 21 Power 21 Transport 22

C. External Finance 25

Foreign Trade 25 Balance of Payments 27

D. Money and Banking 30

The BCEAEC 30 I'lonetary Development8 32 Cormercial Banks 32 Chad Development Bank 33

E. Prices and WIages 35

Prices 35 Wages 36

- iii - Irlge 11o,

F. Public Finance 37

Structure of Current Revenues 39 Structure of Current Expenditures L1 11municipal Finance 42

G. Investment and Savings .2

III. :DEVELOPITINT PROBLEMIS, THE PLAN AND PROSPECTS 45

A. Problems 45

B. The First Five Year Plan 45

C. Prospects 47

Agriculture 07 Fishing 51 Forestry 51 Livestock 51 Industry, I4ining and Tourism 53 Power Transport 55 Post and Telecommunication 56 Education 56 Urban Housing and Development 57 Health 5 8

D. Implications for Production and Trade 59

IV. FI110CIAL PROSPECTS AND CREDITWJORTHIESS 60

A. Requirements for External Finance 60

Cotton Support 60 The First Five Year Plan 61 Central Government Investment 62 External Public Assistance 63 Technical Assistance 65

B. Creditworthiness 65

STATISTICAL APP&IDIX . i - iv -

BASIC DATA

Area:

sq. miles 496,000 sq. kn. 1,28h4,000

E'opulation (1967 estimate) 3,U440,000

Rate of' growth 1.4 (1965) (estimated to reach 1.8 in 1970) Density per sq. mile 6.9 Density per sq. km. 2.7

Annual Rate of Growth Gross Domest,ic Product: 1958-65

Total CrDP (1965 - current prices) CFAF billion 59.0 5.9% GDP/capita (1965) CFAF 17,630 (US $71.4) 4.5%L Monetary sector GDP at current prices (1965) CFAF billion 31.0 Monetary GDP/capita (1965) CFAF 9,260 (US $37.5)

Ra-te of growth External Trade CFAF million (1966) (1961-66)

Recorded merchandise exports 5,848 1.7% Recorded merchandise imports 7,962 4.1% Surplus/Deficits (-) -2,l1.1%1114 Total estimated exports- goods and services 8,392 1.4g Total estimated imports- goods and services 1L,788 4.1% Total trade surplus/deficits (-) - 6,396 -8.7%

Money, Credit, and Prices CFAF billion

Total money supply 6.37 (Dec. 31/66) 3.1% Domestic credit 6.84 17.0% Retail price index f r Fort lIamy (1958 =100) 162 (July 1966) 5.4%

Public Finance - Central Goverment CFAF million 1965 1966

Current Revenue 7, 5 76.o 8,905.0 14.7 Current Expenditure 7,165.5 9,056.3 15.7 Current Surplus/Deficit (-) (before Debt Service) 410.5 -151.3 Current Surplus/Deficit (--) (after Debt Service) 198.4 -730.4 Capital Expenditure 565.3 544.3 9.3

. 1 GDP data, are not iully co.nparable, as a result this rate may be on the e -h side.

-v -

External Public Debt U.S. $ million Tincluding debt guaranteed by Government)

Total debt (:Dec. 31, 1966) 23.51 Total annual debt service on current debt 1967 3.36 1972 0.71 Debt service ratio to exports of goods and services on current debt 1967 11.2% 1972 3.4%

Net Foreign reserves CFAF billion

December 1960 2.86 December 1965 2.58 December :1966 0.52 June 1967 -0.89

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MARCH 1968h0RD-2089R

SUNTiARY AND CONCLUSIONS

1. Chlad, the largest landlocked country of Africa, provides a harsh physical environment for about 3.4 million inhabitants. The rnorthern part of the country is largely desert with isolated areas adapted to livestock raising. In the southern one-tenth of the country soils and adequate rainfall combine to provide the basis for sedentary agriculture in which cotton, as well as subsistence crops, are cultivated. In between these two extremes lies an area in which subsistence agriculture is blended with livestock grazing by settled farmers and semi-nomadic grazers, the blend becoming more purely livestock as one moves north. Rainfall varies widely from season to season and year to year, which makes for a precarious existence for man and beast. During the rainy season low lying areas particularly south and east of Fort Lany become catchmients for flood waters which cut off communications by road during several months each year.

2. The Chad population is mainly rural, only 8% of the total live in towns. INinety percent are occupied in agriculture, including livestock grazing and fishing. Population is growing at about 1.5% per year, a low rate which is expected to rise to 1.8% by 1970. Life e!xpectancy is only 31 years due to the prevalence of malaria, dysentery, bilharzia, tuberculosis and other diseases and the low levol oI' the health services. Nutrition levels have been high by African standard until recently. Qnly about 7% of the population are literate, though education has been expandcing rapidly.

3. The country is divided broadly into two socio-economic political and geographical blocks with different religions, customs and lan- guages. The southern population speak a variety of dialects, are animist or Christian and are settled cultivators. The population in the north and east are Arabic speaking Muslims, many of whom are nomadic or semi- nomadic. Political traditions vary greatly. In the north a number of sultanates were dominant in the past while in the south political authority was diffused, residing wTith tribal chiefs. Ihe rivalry between the twJo cultures has a long historical background--the northern nomad or "Arab", as they call themselves, were traditionally domi-nant until French intervention. Formal annexation to France occurred during the First World War. The French contribution to the social, economic and cultural advancement of the country was naturally felt mainly in the settled areas of the south. As a result the limited educated class is largely from that area and over the years prior to independence the southerners became the clerks, civil servants, solLiers and politicians vrho were in position to take over power when nationhood was achieved in 1960. Political life is further complicated by personal and group rival- eries, very often with a geographical rather than ideological basis.

4. The shift of power has been exploited by the administrators and is resented in the north. High livestock taxes and pressure to purchase the National Bond issue of 1965 have provided other sources c,f civil unrest resulting in sporadic raids by armed nomadic bands on villages and occasional encounters between the "bandits" and Government

- xii -

forces. Ihe raiding bands are said to take refuge in Sudan when hard pressed; this has been the basis for the deterioration in relations between Chad and the Sudan. This guerilla-type activity has not yet offered any serious threat to the Government in the settled and economically important areas. Relations with Sudan have improved in recent months after a meeting of heads of state. Nevertheless, the unrest is a serious drain on resources and can divert the Government from the important long term task of development.

5. Chad has maintained clo,se ties with France; the last unit of the French army left in 19651J4 but it continues to depend heavily on France for financial and tecnnical assistance. About 650 French technicians, including 300 teachers are assisting the Govermnent and most public agencies. Chad is associated with the Common Market and is a member of the Organisation Commune Africaine et Malgache (OCAM). Its most important regional tie is as a mmuber of the Customs and Economic Union of Equatorial Africa and its common Central Bank. Chad joined the IBRD in July 1963 and IDA in November of the same year.

6. The economy of Chad is one of very narrow range because of its isolation, climate and limited physical resources. Almost 50% of GDP is still outside the monetary sector, deriving from subsistence agriculture, of which the major crops are millet, sorghum and groundnuts. Much of livestock raising and fishing are also at the subsistence level. Medium staple cotton is the main commercial crop and along lith the value added by transport and ginning, provides about 10% of GDP and 55% of total exports.

7. Cotton is gro-Tm on about 300,000 hectares by about 500,000 families on small plots, usually in rotation writh millet or groundnuts. Output and yields vary greatly but in the last four years output has averaged 100,000 tons of raw cotton compared with 70,000 tons in the previous four year period. Ginning yields have improved with the introduction of new varieties and still better seed varieties are now being distributed to growers which will further improve the yields and quality of raw cotton. The growth of cotton production has been due to the joint action of COTONFRAN and the Government Price Stabi- lization Board. COTONFRAN is a private company in charge of purchasing, ginning and marketing of cotton. The company has operated under a convention which has assured it a reasonable profit in wrhich the Government shares in good years. Although the Government has guaranteed cotton prices to the farmer, thle level of support declined in the early 19601s. The overall real income of the cotton farmer has undoubtedly declined in the last ten years.

8. Chad's cotton has not been competitive at world prices, which have continued to decline for medium grades. The price gap has been reduced by improved yields and by reduced ginning and transport costs, nevertheless cotton production has required support from abroad, first from France and more recently from the European Economic Community. In 1966/67 Chadts cotton would have been competitive without the export duty of about 11%. However, the duty has provided an important share

lJ About 1,000 paratroopers from the "Force d'Intervention" for thp region have been based in Chad more recently.

- xiii - of Government revenues ulhich cannot be eliminated easily in the present fiscal situation. There are good prospects that the productivity program which is underway with EEC and French support will make Chadis cotton competitive in a few-i years. In the interim further cotton support from abroad will be required.

9. Livestock raising is the mainstay of the northern population. Livestock herds wrere estimated in 1966 to include 4.5 million cattle, over 4 million sheep and goats, 355 thousand camels and 450 thousand horses and donkeys. The annual value of production of the livestock sector including milk, milk products, meat, live animal and hides and skins amounted in 1965 to about 27.1g of total production of all agricultural commodities and foodstuffs.

10. Livestock and livestock products also rank second in exports, about 40,0)a which wias the unrecorded exports of live animals. Marketing problems are serious. Cattle must be moved long distances with insufficient watering points en route which results in overgrazing around existing wells. Exports on the hoof yield relatively low returns to the Chad economy due to the poor condition of the animals and the ownerls weak bargaining position. However, this clandestine trade appears to be advantageous to the individual seller by providipg an escape from. taxes and customs duties. Local consumption of meat has increased but most of the slaughtering is uncontrolled, also to escape taxes. The infrastructure serving the livestock sector is limited to several hundred wells, two modern ranches and twro modern slaughterhouses, one of wthich is working at one-fifth of capacity. Cattle offtake is low but wLhere sufficient water has beer, provided and pastures are not overgrazed offtake has risen and the weight and ouality of animals has improved. Cattle health is good on the wihole, diseases being fairly well controlled. In the industrial sector meat processing remained fairly stable from 1960 to 1960.

11. Chad has the least developed industrial sector of any of the countries of the Central African region. Its industry is almost entirely based upon the processing of agricultural products and is organized in small private or autonomous semi-public units. The most important industrial activities are cotton ginning, meat processing, brewing, rice and wheat; milling, and edible oil production. The few mechanical and electrical industries are mainly concerned writh repairs and maintenance work. Mining is practically non-existent. Total energy production amounts to only 1.5% of GDP, of which less than 50% is electric power. Commerce and transport account for about 20,% of Chadts GDP and about 40% of GDP in the monetary sector. Government services have provided an increasing share of GDP accounting for about 10% in 1965.

12. The GDP data for Chad are not very reliable and are not fully comparable from year to year. Data on price trencds have limited validity. Under these circumstances the estimates of real growth are cited with some reservations. The annual growth of GDP at current prices has ben estimated at 5.8%1 between 1958 and 1965. Per capita income is said to have grown from $60 in 1961 to $71 in 1965. In the Five Year Plan per capita real

- xiv - income is estimated to have grown at an annual rate of 2.6% from 1961 to i965. This estimate is believed to be high. In 1966 there was undoubtedly a decline in real per capita income because of the poor millet and cotton crops. Some recovery, perhaps slightly above the 1.965 level is expected for 1967. Sectors of relatively rapid growrth in recent years have been government and private services, construction, commerce ancd industry.

13. Chad is one of the five member countries of the Equatorial Customs and Economic Union (UDEAC) who also share membership in a common central bank, the Banque Central des Etats de ltAfr-ique Equatoriale et du Cameroun (BCEAEC). Under an agreement with France, the CFA franc is f'reely convertible into French francs and the BCEAEC holds all of its reserves in French francs. Foreign exchange can be freely purchased by Chad and the other member countries even when the country shows a negative imputed balance in the operations account. Credit policy is managed by the Central Bank through the control of rediscount ceilings and moral suasion. The major credit activity of the country is in financing the Marketing of cotton. There are three commercial banks and a Development Bank in Chadi. The BCEAEC provides about 50% of the funds to the banking system through rediscounting privileges. The Chad Development Bank has been participating in commercial banking (incotton marketing) almost exclusively until the last two years when loans to farmers and for house building grew in importance. Collection rates on agricultural loans have been poor but improved recently in areas where special projects are being undertaken by foreign technical assistance agencies.

14. Money supply has grown from CFAF 5.3 billion in 1960 to CFAF 6.4 bi:Llion in 1966, about 3.1% per year. Total money supply is equivalent to about 21% of monetary GDP. Credit to the economy has grown somewhat faster, especially in 1961, 1966 and early 1967. Credit expansion during these periods has been related to the size of the cotton crop, the unsettling effect of independence, the departure of French troops and a budget deficit in 1966.

15. Prices in Fort Lamy, the only available index, have showTn an annual inflation of about 5.4% over the period 1960 to 1966. This is primarily due to increased prices of imported goods and increased import duties since the index is oriented to the consumption patterns of foreigners. Basic commodities such as millet show wJide variations in price from season to season and year to year although a Government price control system for basic commodities was introduced in 1963. Wages,iwhich are also regulated by Government decree, have increased about 50% since 1963.

16. Accurate and comprehensive foreign trade data are not readily available due to the substantial clandestine trade of live cattle and smoked or salted fish to INigeria, C,A.R. and Cameroon and imports of textiles from Nigeria. Statistics of recorded trade (excluding intra- UDEAC or clandestine trade) show wide anxnual variations in the trade deficit due in large part to variations in cotton output. Estimates of trade with the UDEAC countries show a marked increase of imports I - xv -

in 1966 over the previous two years, while recorded exports declined. Overall estimates on trading and services account have shown growing deficits, rising from CFAF 3.9 billion in 1961 to CFAF 6.5 billion in 1966. Merchandise imports alone have grovn 29% during this period; exports by only 10%. The sectoral distribution of trade shows a decline in the share of food imports and slight increase in the shares of fuels and lubricants, consumer durables, non-durables and equipment. Major imports from UDEAC countries are sugar, cigarettes, soap, footwear, beer and textiles. France continues to provide about 50% of all recorded imports. Major exports are cotton, livestock and fish. On the basis of limited data. the balance of payments indicate that the deficit on goods and services account have been offset in large part by public capital grants and loans and to a lesser extent by private foreign investment. However, significant losses of Chad s imputed foreign exchange reserves occurred .in 1961, 1966 an(d early 1967. The result was a decline in imputed reserves to the lowest level since independence, a negative CFAF 0.89 billion. The decline in reserves is not crucial to Chad s monetary stability as long as the present arrangements continue within the regional Central Bank to which Chad belongs.

17. The Central Government is the only public fiscal agency of importance with its own revenues. Eight municipalities have budgets to which they contribute but total expenditures are only about 5% of those of the Central Government. Other public autonomous agencies depend mainly on foreign support for e.penditures outside the budget. After independence the Central Government increased revenues quite rapidly to meet the growing requirements of neiw agencies and activities. The Government responded to the discontinuance of direct French support to the current budget after 1962 by raising taxes substantially in 1963. Since independence the Government has increased revenues by over 15%. annually while annual expenditures have grown by 16'/. Expenditures grew more slowly in the early part of the period allowing current surpluses from 1963 to 1965. A small deficit (before debt service) occurred in 1966 which was caused mainly by a doubling of defense expenditures resulting from the departure of French troops in 1965, and the internal unrest of the last twio years. The latter also caused a decline in receipts from head and animal taxes.

18. Fiscal receipts have provided about 95% of total revenue; indirect taxes producing 70% and direct taxes 25% of the total. Import duties have accounted for 45-50% of receipts. The major shift in expenditures has been the increase in general services and defense, the latter accounting for 29% of total expenditures in 1966, a very high level for any country. Expenditures on economic services are only about 10% of the total since most economically important activities are financed outside the budget both on current and investment account.

19. Total investment, public and private, has been estimated at approximately CFAF 5.5 to 6 billion annually in recent years equivalent to about 10% of GDP. Annual private investment, largely from foreign sources,has ranged from 14 to 35% of total investment. The limited investment through the budget has been more than covered by total foreign

- xvi - support to the current and investment budgets. Available information indicates that public investment outside the budget has also been financed in large part by foreign aid mainly from France and the EEC (FED), primarily on a grant basis. Prior to independence France had financed two programs of investment which emphasized infrastructure. After independence, preparation for the First Five Year Plan (1966-70) included a number of studies and an Interim Prograrn of investment. Project aid continued and many projects have been cariied over to the Plan.

;20. Chad represents a formidable case for development. The isolated :Location of Chad as well as the small dispersed population and the limited quantities of commercial goods reduces the economic feasibility of projects for transport infrastructure. High transport costs in turn decrease the rate of return on projects throughout the economy. Modernization in agriculture moves slowly under the burden of illiterate farmers and grazers habituated in primitive techniques. The internal political climate dis- tracts attention from development. The Government of Chad recognizes these problems and in the First Five-Year Plan (1966-70) it has given primary emphasis to three broad objectives: a) di-versification and increased prodluctivity in agriculture, b) the improvement of the transport system, and c) the development of human resources. The Plan also emphasizes industries adapted to Chad's conditions in which the private sector will play an important role. On the whole the Plan provides a reasonably balanced program of investment, with forty-four percent of the Plan allocated to productive investment, thirty-four percent for iLnfrastructure and twenty-two percent for social overheads.

21. To-tal cost of the Plan is estimated at CFAF 47 billion of which about CFAF 2.2 billion or 5 percent is for private investment. In productive terms the Plan projects an annual increase in real per capita GrDP of 4.2%. The Plan is too ambitious both as a program of expenditure and in estimates of production and trade to be achieved. As a result it is recommendled that the Plan period be extended through 1972. Certain program targets need modification, the most important of which are the production target for millet and the target of export revenue for cotton, which has been overvalued. Most other major plan targets of output and trade should be achieved in the extended period. Under these assumptions, annual per capita GDP in real terms might be expected to grow at an annual rate ranging from 1.3 to 1.8%. It is also expected that exports might grow at an annual rate of about 3%, while import growth is restrained to 2%, compared with Plan targets of 5.2% and 2.1% over the shorter period. Such rates of growth would stop the deterioration in the balance on goods and services account and reduce the deficit from the peak of CFAF 6.5 billion in 1966 to about CFAF 4.6 billion by 1972.

22. Within the broad priorities of the Plan, the Government proposes to concentrate investment in key project areas, both sectorally and geo- graphically. This is perhaps the most pertinent element of policy and action for a country in Chadts stage of development. The investment program is also supported by an investment code to encourage the private sector, by proposals to generate internal resources for the public sector plan through budget surpluses and some domestic borrowing, and by measures

- xvii -

t;o restrain imports while increasing exports. Chad has also recognized the crucial importance of large inputs of assistance from abroad to provide the technical and management staff along with the capital to implement the projects in the plan.

23. The geographical concentration in poles of development are apparent in agriculture, industry, education, health and urban development. The major industrial, institutional and educational centers will be Fort Lamy, Fort Archambault and Moundou. In agriculture effort is focused on a few areas and crops. These include a cotton productivity program in selected areas in the south administered by a French technical assistance agency which emphasizes supply of farm requisites as well as the investment in ginning capacity and a system of feeder roads to redluce processing and transport costs. A second project in the central part of the country, also administered by an autonomous technical assistance agency, is concerned with improving yields of subsistence crops, particularly groundnuts and experimentation on new crops. In the Lake Chad area the focus is on improving fishing methods, output and marketing and expanding the poldered and irrigated area. The latter area will be used for new and traditional crops. Tied in with this development is a transport connection from the lake to Fort Lamy. In livestock, one major program is to extend the grazing areas in the Batha province by increasing the number of water points which should raise meat output. Improved animal health work, marketing facilities and the introduction of staging ranches are also important. Programs of research for sugar cane and tobacco are being supported by foreign firms already operating successfully in other African countries. Other research work is mainly in the hand of foreign supported semi-public agencies. An improved autonomous organization for agricultural extension, the supply of inputs and credit has also been formed with foreign assistance.

24. A few questions arise on the priority of certain projects. Although most of the investment in industry is already assured, investment in the integrated sugar mill and supporting infrastructure will depend upon favorable sugar trials. The power program includes a number of small municipal power installations which will operate at a loss and should be dropped. In transport, which accounts for 35% of the investment, the road investment program includes a number of items of low priority. Transport investment should concentrate on improved drainage, bridges, and raising roads above flood level. Asphalting can be undertaken at a later stage when traffic warrants the additional investment and maintenance costs. In the educational program it is not certain that the opening of new classes is phased with the outturn of teachers. This may call for a revision downward of the school building program. Savings may also be possible by combining certain institutions to reduce both capital and recurring costs. In health, much more emphasis should be given to preventive health measures and health education and less emphasis to institution building. This is especially true where shortage of staff for hospitals and infirmaries will continue. Allocations to the sugar complei and any low priority projects should be transferred to a reserve for new projects to be identified over the next few years.

- xviii -

.25. The Government recognizes the need to expand markets and to participate in a larger more efficient economic unit. Therefore it is committed to a strengthening of the present regional customs and economic union (UDEAC) and central bank (BCEAEC). The countries of the UDEAC already have a common customs schedule and have also agreed on an investment code wh-ich is more or less the same for each country. A beginning has been madle in a common tax schedule, the most important being a unified tax ("taxe unique") on goods produced within the UDEAC which replaces customs duties and other taxes. At the present time a group of technicians are working on an integrated program of investmnent in industry for the member countries. The transport sector is scheduled to be reviewed next but aLready certain multi-country transportation projects are under study. These include a Cameroon-CAR road, expansion of the Congo (B)- Gabon railway, and a study of the Chad-Cameroon link to determine the feasibility of a railway or a road from Ngaoundere to Moundou and ulti- mately to Fort Archambault. It is important to recogrnize that regional integration will not bring an exclusive economic unit. Chad will continue to need close relations with Nigeria not only as a transport channel but ailso as a market for its livestock. Similarly, Congo (K) and North African countries can in the long run provide an important market for Chadls meat.

26. The plan gives an indication of overall priorities and important areas of concentration but priorities are not indicated sector by sector and between projects. Under these circumstances and given the dependence of the Plan upon foreign aid, there is the possibility that priorities will be fixed by the amount of financing obtained project by project. Some coordinating effort among aid giving agencies and the Chad Government would rninimize thLs problem and facilitate the concentration of external and domestic resources on Chad ts priority needs over time.

27. Chad's financial prospects depend upon a) her capacity to recover from the current budget squeeze b) the availability of foreign assistance to finance almost ninety percent of projects in the public sector which are suitable for such assistance, and c) additional foreign aid for cotton subsidies during an interim period. Without extending the Plan period to 1972 prospects are not good that Chad can achieve sufficient budget surpluses on current account to cover the amortization of public external debt and contribute to the financing of the Plan. The factors which caused the budget squeeze in 1966 continue, so that a deficit is expected in 1967. A return to the very satisfactory fiscal trends of 1963-65 will require a resolution of the political problems which would allow a reduction in defense and security expenditures in relative if not in actual terms. The various taxes on animals need to be reviewed to remove any inequities of the tax system which now appear to bring negative returns in revenue terms.

28. Public sector expenditures in the Plan total CFAF 44.8 billion of which CFAF 2.7 billion are recurrent costs for ongoing projects, CFAF L biLLion for labor in kind on community development projects, leaving CFAF 41.1 billion of projects. requiring capital financing. From 1967 through 1972 it is feasible for the Government to achieve aggregate budget surpluses of CFAF 6 billion. Debt repayments on current external debt will

- xix - be approximately CFAF 3 billion. The balance of OFAF 3 billion plus CFAF 1.4 billion of domestic borrowing leaves CFAF 36.7 billion of the Plan to be financed from external sources. This is e(quivalent to 89% of the cost of public projects requiring financing, The future rate of external aid from present sources is not expected to change greatly and should provide CFAF 23 billion over seven years. Known new sources of aid, including the World Bank Group, can be expected to provide CFAF 3 billion, leaving a resource gap of almost CFAF 11 billion. Filling this gap will require an agressive and sustained effort by Government to increase the rate of expenditure and improve performance on current projects and to speed up the preparation of projects in adequate detail for external aid agencies. The inclusion of project recurring costs during the development period might increase aggregate receipts from abroad. The Government is also expected to range more widely for sources of assistance. If these measures are only partially successful in meeting the gap, the Government will face the alternatives of undertaking new measures to generate domestic savings or reducing Plan targets.

29?. Chadis outstanding external public debt amounted to CFAF 6 billion at the end of 1966, including debt guaranteed by the Government. Di addition lFAF 1.5 billion of loans are in the process of being formalized. Debt service in 1967 on contracted debt will amount to 12% of 1966 exportsof goods and services. In 1968 debt service wil). fall to 6% of ex

/ Including debt service on unsigned loans already agreed in principle.

THE ECONOMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF CHAD

I. INTRODUCTION

Location and Climate

1. The Republic of Chad is the largest and most inaccessible of the landlocked countries of Africa. Its area of 1,284,000 square kilometers (496,00o square miles), is larger than all of the countries of the European Economic Community combined while its population of 3,440,000 is only about 2% of theirs. Its population density of 2.7 inhabitants per square kilometer is, nevertheless the highest in the countries of the former French Equatorial Africa. 2 Population has been growing at about 1.4% per year which is low by African standards and for developing countries generally.

2. Chad is located in a very harsh environment, between the 8th and 24th parallels North and the 14th and the 24th meridians East. Average maximum temperatures are 1040-1070 at the end of the dry season during March, April, and May, and fall only to the lowz 90ts during the more moderate months. During April and May, temperatures frequently rise to 1200 F. in the shade and 1500 F. in the sun. The daily variations in temperature are very large; the mean daily minima are usually 3CP-400 F. below the maxima. Rainfall is highly seasonal with flooding during a few months and damaging drought in others. During the rainy period (June-September) many low-lying areas become water catchments, particularly in the central and southern part of the country. Extensive areas are inundated and transport routes are cut for several months. Niillenia ago, Chad was covered by a huge fresh water sea. All that remains is Lake Chad, one of the largest lakes in the world, which is fed by the two main rivers of the country, the Chari and the Logone which feeds into the Chari at Fort Lamy. The lake is slowly shrinking in size and its average depths of only three or four feet is slowly declining. Evaporation takes off as much as ten inches a month duiring the dry season.

3. Broadly speaking, three climatic and physical zones can be distinguished in Chad. The region north of the 14th parallel includes 60% of the country (about 770,000 square kilometers) with less than 300mm. of yearly rainfall. This area supports some 420,000 people and is essentially a livestock raising zone. It produces, in addition, small quantities of gum arabic. The upper 600,000 square kilometers of this area or almost 50% of the country falls within the Sahara and is inhabited by some 75,000 nomads. Livestock and dates are the mainstay of the nomads as they move from oasis to oasis.

4. The east central region, limited on the north by the 14th parallel and on the southwest by the basin of the Chari river, has an area of about 380,000 square kilometers (30% of the country) with annual rainfall varying from 400 to 900 mm. It has a population of about 1.5 million inhabitants, both sedentary farmers and semi-nomadic

1/ Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Central African Republic and Chad.

- 2 - herdsmen, who produce livestock, millet and sorghum, groundnuts, wheat, corn, and limited quantities of cotton. A substantial number, perhaps 225,000 nomads, also live in the area as well as the fishermen of Lake Chad.

5. Finally, the southern 10% of the country (130,000 square kilometers) is crossed by the Chari and Logone rivers with annual rainfall between 700 and 1300 mm. It has the highest concentration of population, over 1.5 million, with a density of about 12 inhabitants per square kilometer. Cotton production is concentrated in this region providing the countryls major export crop. Millet, rice, groundnuts and other food crops are also important. Fishing is the main source of cash income for a few thousand families living along the two rivers. Livestock is handicapped because of the tsetse fly but there are perhaps 50,000 settled grazers in this area.

Soils

6. As a result of its limited rainfall, the greater part of Chad is not suitable for settled cultivation. Even where rainfall is adequate, soils are relatively poor, either sandy with insufficient plant nutrients or badly drained in low lying areas. Many soils are eroded and leached by the heavy seasonal rains while others are degraded by brush fires. As a result, less than 20% of the area of Chad is cultivable; about 22 million hectares out of a total of 128 million. Another 40 to 50 million hectares are used for grazing. There are limited areas of rich soil on the shore of Lake Chad where polders make cultivation possible with a regular supply of water for irrigation. Other rich soils suitable for rice cultivation are found along the Logone River. From the cultivable area only about 2 million hectares are actually cultivated in any year. This is less than 10% of the cultivable area and less than 2% of the area of the country. Another 5 million hectares are in fallow each year leaving about 15 million hectares wlhch could be utilized for future expansion of agricultural development.

Population

7. The Chad population is mainly rural. Fort Lamy, the capital and largest city has about 125,000 inhabitants; three other regional centers- Fort Archambault, Moundou, and Ab6che -have populations between 25,ooo and 35,000 inhabitants. These, along with a number of tovms of over 5,000 inhabitants, bring the urban population of the country to about 8% of the total. As in most developing countries, there is an apparent shift of population in which the growth of the urban centers rapidly outpaces the available facilities and possibilities of employment.

8. Forty-six percent of the people in Chad are less than 15 years old, fifty-one percent are between 15 and 60 years of age, with the balance over 60 years. Agriculture including livestoclc grazing and fishing provides a livelihood to about 90% of the population. An extremely limited number of people, slightly in excess of 60,000, constitutes the commercial, industrial, administrative, and managerial labor force. The upper echelons in the private sector and in public administration are still largely filled by expatriates.

-3-

Health and Nutrition

91. The birth rate of the population is about 45 per thousand. The relatively low growth rate is mainly a function of the very high death rate of 31 per thousand. Eighteen percent of infants (live births) die in the first year. Life expectancy is only 31 years. Malaria, dysentery and other diseases resulting from inadequate hygiene are endemic. Venereal disease rates are very high and tuberculosis is of growing inportance. Bilharzia is common in certain areas, especially among the fishermen of the Lake Chad area.

10. Health services are very few. There are only 45 doctors in country, the one for every 75,000 inhabitants. There are 650 nurses -with limited qualifications and only three pharmacists in all of Chad. There are something over 3,000 hospital beds, about one per thousand of population, mainly concentrated in Fort Lany and a few other towms.

11. Millet and sorghum are the staple foods for most of the supplemented population by groundnuts, meat, milk, ghee, and fish. Average nutrition levels for the population as a whole were quite good by African standards through 1964; calorie intake per capita per day averaged over 3,000 calories. The intake of protective foods, particularly animal proteins, were also above average although diets were inadequate in vitamins A and C. This satisfactory position changed in 1965. The decline in the millet crop by about 10% in that year and the disastrous crop of 1966 has certainly reduced average calorie availabilities very considerably. Average per capita levels, however have concealed wide regional and seasonal variations. Diets among herdsmen and fishermen are unbalanced with a relatively high level of animal protein. For the population as a whole, diet levels have always declined seriously in the months prior to the harvest. This year there is said to be a real danger of famine in some areas of the North which has moved the World Food Program to allocate emergency food aid at the request of the Government.

Literacy and Education 12. Only about 7% of the adult population are literate in Arabic or French. 4.5% of the men and 0.5% of the women can read and write in French, the official language of the country. Pupils attending public elementary schools have steadily increased from 70,000 in 1960-61 to 150,000 in 1966-67, but the enrollment rate,lI about 19%, is still exceedingly low and varies wiLdely from 3 to 62% from region to region. The quality of instruction is poor; teachers with too little training are overburdened with classes averaging about 70 pupils and rising as high as 200. It is estimated that 70% of the

1/ Percent of students of primary school age (7-12 years) in school. The rate rises to 28% of the age group if overage students are included. This indicates that about one-third of primary school students are overage. boys and 85% of the girls drop out of school before completing their primary education, with the result that a large share lose the acquired literacy. The enrollmsent rate for secondary education is about 2% of the population between 13 and 18 years including overage students. Only one school provides any kind of agricultural training and that to a very small number of students. Problems of language, nomadism and religion, the sparseness of the population, the rapid increase in the school age population, the lack of trained teachers, and the limited financial resources of Chad make education one of the most difficult tasks that the country has to tackle.

Social and Political Developments

13. The country is divided broadly into two ethnic and geographical blocs. This lack of homogeneity is reflected throughout the society: in religion, customs, language, economics, and politiics. Roughly forty percent of the population live in the north and east, are Muslim and speak Arabic. They incluide Foulbes and six other tribes and a large proportion are nomadic or semi-nomadic, occupied mainly in livestock grazing. However, settled cultivation has expanded in the more climatically favored of these areas in recent years. The Southern tribes are animist or Christian (or a mixture of the two), speak a variety of local dialects of which Sara is the most important. They are mainly settled on the land and occupied in subsistence farming or growing cotton. Local minorities and sub-culturesabound. For example the fishermen of the Lake Chad area have little respect for neighboring farmers and herdsmen, whose ways of lifo arc very different.

14. The French did not penetrate the territory of Chad until late in the nineteenth century. They undertook a number of military expeditions which continued until the First World War, and France actually annexed Chad to French Equatorial Africa in the middle of the war. At this time Chad was joined llith the Oubangui-Chari (the present Central African Republic) for administrative purposes.

15. In 1946, as an overseas territory in the French Union, Chad elected its first territorial assembly and became represented in the French assembly. An extension of the power took place in 1956 with the Enabling Act (Loi Cadre), which established a new order in French overseas terri- tories and introduced universal suffrage. At the end of 1958, the country gained internal autonomy and the territorial assembly transformed itself into a national constituent assembly. Independence came in August 1960. Under the constitution, the president was elected by an electoral college composed of members of the national assembly, mayors, municipal councilors and traditional chiefs.

16. Political traditions vary greatly in different parts of the country. Before the French conquest, the north was organized under a number of Sultanates some of which controlled large areas. In the south political authority was much more diffused with a large number of small tribal or village units. The rivalry between the two cultures has a long historical background. For many generations, the northern tribes were dominant and raided the south whenever they required slaves.

- 5 -

17. Under the French administration, the power structure changed. The French contribution to the social, economic, and cultural advancement of the country was naturally felt mainly in the settled and economically important areas of the south. As a result, the small educated class is largely from that area and in the years prior to independence, the southerners became the clerks, civil servants, soldiers, and politicians who were in a position to take over power when nationhood was achieved.

18. Political life is further complicated by personal and tribal rivalries within the two major southern factions. At the time of independence, the Progressive Party of Chad was in power with Francois Tombalbaye (of Fort Archambault) as President. A few months after independence was achieved, in December 1960, Tombalbaye pushed through a new constitution which increased the president's powers, reduced those of the opposition parties, gave the President a 7-year term and established a unicameral national assembly. In February, 1962, opposition parties were dissolved. In 1963 an unsuccessful coup mastermilded by a number of Muslim ministers and officials was uncovered by the Government. Arrests followed, the Assembly was dissolved, riots occurred in Fort Lamy and over 100 persons were killed, but Tombalbaye maintained firm control of the country. Late in 1963 a new Assembly was elected and the President appointed a new cabinet which included a group of young educated administrators. Comparative quiet ruled during 196h.

19. In 1965 new troubles arose after the Government made vigorous effort's to increase revenues and to raise development funds by a national bond issue. A major complaint of the local people in the north and east had long been that taxes on animals were at punitive levels and that double and triple collection by corrupt officials was not unknown. They also objected to the strong pressure to participate in the loan. As a result, in the last two years, there has been more or less constant civil unrest with sporadic raids by armed nomadic bands on villages and with occasional encounters between the "bandits" and the government forces. Loss of life is probably not very great, but early in 1967 a provincial governor and a member of parliament were killed along with 50 or 60 villagers.

20. The raiding bands are said to take refuge in Sudan when hard pressed; this has been the basis for the deterioration in relations between Chad and the Sudan. After pressure from President Tombalbaye in June 1965, the Sudan Government agreed to control Chad dissidents on its soil, including a group calling themselves the "Government of the Islamic Republic of Chad in exile" . Frontier incidents continued, and in February 1966 further talks between the two governments were ended. Several hundred irregulars were killed in 1966 and security forces were installed in Ouaddci province. In August 1966 the frontier with the Sudan was closed ard movements of Sudanese in Chad were restricted. There has been little evidence of any large influx of modern weapons to the local rebel groups from abroad. Relations with the Sudan have greatly improved in

- 6 - recent months after meetings of the two heads of State and the frontiers have been reopened.

21. Despite the periodic unrest, President Tombalbaye has remained firmly in charge and there has not been any serious threat to the Govern- ment in the settled and econoaically important areas. Nevertheless, continued unrest can be a constant drain on resources and can divert the Government from the important long-term task of development.

Technical Assistance

22. The small number of the local educated elite makes the administrative and the modern private sector of the Chadian economy heavily reliant on European skills. About 650 French technical assistants, including almost 300 teachers, work in the administration. Contrary to expectations, their number has increased over the last three years. There is some shift of expatriates to an advisory role as trained Chadians become available for operational positions. The Chad Govern- ment has taken over the organization and manjy of the benefits of the old French administration, perpetuating incomes which bear little relation to the country's resources. This has been another source of resentment among the less fortunate citizenry.

International and Regional Ties

23. In 1965 most of the French Army contingents in Chad left the country, leaving behind a small armed force at the Fort Lamy air base and a number of officers to advise and train the Chad Army. This movement had the double effect of decreasing substantially the inflow of foreign military assistance and local currency expenditures. Chad also had to take up the policing of the northern half of the country and of 11,000 kms. of the country's borders. These new responsibilities have placed a heavy financial burden on Chad which will be discussed later in the report.

24. Chad has maintained close ties with France, from which it continues to obtain substantial financial and technical assistance. It is associated with the EEC, which is also offering Chad considerable assistance. Chad is a member of the Union Africaine et Malgache de Co- opdration Economique. However, its closest and most important ties are, with the Union Douaniere et Economique de l'Afrique Equatoriale (UDEAC)I' and the Banque Centrale d'Afrique et du Cameroun (BCEAEC). Chad joined the IBRD in July 1963, and MA in November of the same year.

1/ The "UDEAC" took over the functions of the Union Douani6re Equatoriale when Cameroon joined Congo (B), Gabon, Central African Republic and Chad in membership of the Customs Union on January 1, 1966.

- 7 -

II. RECEMT ECONOMIC DEVELOPaNTS

A. The Structure of the Econoiny

25. The economy of Chad has been formed by its isolation, climate, limited physical resources, and by its people who are not numerous enough to provide an important market and are without the knowledge and skills required to maximize the few economic possibilities which exist. One not unexpected result is that almost 50% of GDP is still outside the monetary sector, in large part from subsistence agriculture. In recent years, the agricultural sector, including livestock and fishing, has accounted for about 55% of GDP. It also provides the base for most economic activity in industry, transport and services. Cotton is the main commercial crop and, along with the value added by transport and ginning, provides about 10% of GDP. Recently it has also provided almost 80% of recorded exports.

26. Livestock raising is the mainstay of the northern population and is the second most important source of commercial products: meat, hides, and skins. It represents about 201 of local food production and 12% of GDP. It also ranks second in exports, including the major share of unrecorded exports consisting of livestock on the hoof to Nigeria and the Central African Republic.

27. Fishing occupies about 5,000 families full time and perhaps three times that many in certain seasons of the year. Production of fish is about 100,O00 tons annually. Dried and salted fish are esti- rmated to be the third most important export, a major proportion of wfhich is uncontrolled trade with Nigeri .

28. Aclco ding to an ECA study Chad has the least developed industrial sectorl of the Central African sub-region. In 1963 the shares of GDP from indlustry for these countries were:

Percent

Gabon 31.4 Congo (K) 29.2 Congo (B) 20.4 C.A.R. 13.1 Cameroon 12.5 Chad 7.2

1/ Including manrufacturing, mining, power and construction. National accounts figures indicate Chadls share is 8%, still the lowest among the above countries.

- 8 -

29. Chadts industrial sector is almost entirely based upon the processing of agricultural products. It is organized in small private or autonomous semi-public units. There has been very little local textile production to date and it has been carried on in traditional ways. Production of the mechanical and electrical industries consist mainly of repair and maintenance works. Mining is practically non- existent. Only small quantities of natrony/are mined in the north of which a major share is exported.

30. Total production of energy amounts to only 1.5% of GDP. Less than half of energy production is of industrial origin, the rest arising in the subsistence sector based upon the utilization of wood, charcoal, groundnut hulls, and cotton seeds for household use.

31. Commerce and transport represent about 20% of Chadls GDP and about 40% of GDP in the monetary sector. This reflects the heavy burden of commercial margins and transport on the economy.

32. Government services represent an increasing share of the GDP, and account at present for some 10 percent of it.

B. Production Trends

33. Estimates of GDP for Chad are available for the years 1958, 1961-63, and 1965. The data are not fully comparable from year to year with the result that the growth estimates are used with reservations. .he Gross Domestic Product of Chad has shotm the following growTth in current prices:

Year In billions of C7F' Francs

1958 39.8 1961 h7.3 1962 50.6 1963 52.6 1965 59.0

These figures indicate that the growfth rate of GDP for the entire period has been 5.8%. (From 1958-61, the rate was 5.9% and from 1961-65, 5.7%.) Per capita income at current prices grew from about $60 in 1961 to $71 in .L965. The limitations of the price indices are such that it is hazardous to estimate the growth of real per capita income. The authors of the Plan have accepted a figure of 2.6% for the period 1961-63. This appears high for the country as a whole because of the relatively low proportion of gross domestic investment from GDP, (about 10% over the last years), the extremely rapid depreciation of fixed assets in Chad, and the high proportion of infrastructure and social overheads in total investment which will yield productive results only over a long period of time.

A hydrated native sodium carbcnate used for hwman and animal consumption and in the production of soap.

- 9 -

34. The distribution and growth of incomes varies greatly from sector to sector with relatively low incomes and slow growth in the subsistence sectors. The areas of relatively rapid growth, as can be seen in Table 19, has been in private and government services, construction, commerce and industry, the latter on a very small base. In 1966 there was undoubtedly a decline in real per capita income, particularly in the agricultural sector. Recent sectoral developments are discussed in the following paragraphs.

Ag,riculture

35. Farming remains at a very primitive level. Although farm holdings are small, cultivation is not intensive. The hoe is the common tool and the use of animal drawn implements is only beginning in a small way. As a result mixed farming with multi-purpose animals hardly exists. Agricultural activities remain very seasonal, concentrated in a six-month period, due mainly to climate and the failure to use available water resources for irrigation. Underemployment is high anrd will remain so unless ways are found to involve farmers in community development projects.

36. The most important food crop is millet (or sorghum) which is the principal cereal. Only small quantities are sold for cash or bartered with herdsmen for livestock products, the bulk being consumed by the farmers. Prices in markets vary widely, between CFAF 6-15/Kg. after the crop and often double that before the crop. Official estimates indicate that millet is grown on about one million hectares and that production was 900,000 tons in 1963 and 1964 and 805,000 tons in 1965. Because of a serious drought the 1966 output was considered a disaster with output estimates as low as 600,000 tons. Estimates for 1967 indicate some recovery although regional shortages in the north caused prices to rise to CFAF 50-80/Kg. The Government has requested and received World Food Program assistance to ease the situation. Millet is usually planted in a rotation with groundnuts and/or cotton.

37. Groundnuts are the second most important focd crop with output ranging around 125,000 tons in recent years on an area of about 180,000 hectares. Peak output of 150,000 tons was reached in 1964-1965. Only small quantities have been marketed in the past, even when the price was guaranteed by France prior to Chad's association with the EEC. lNow that the subsidy has been withdrawn Chad cannot compete in the world groundnut market; and in the last two years, exports have declined even further. Farmers now retain 99% as a part of their subsistence diet. Est. 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 Groundnuts production (unshelled) 110,000 140,000 112,000 127,000 120,000 125,000 117,000 vMarketed groundnuts (shelled) 1,450 2,450 3,240 4,170 1,118 1,333 Exe-orts - (shelled) 304 677 2,100 2,670 321 215 I - 10 -

A partial e; lanatio- Lor the decline in sales and e.ports during 1965 cnd 1966 zas tf.e bcc ,illet crop; groundnuts made up some of the shortage in subsistence zones.

38. Other subsistence crops include corn, peas, beans, manioc, dates and sesame. Production figures are very scarce but 1966/1967 estimates of output and value of production are as follows:

Value in In Thousand Tons CFAF million

Corn 24.0 380 Manioc 120.0 1,200 Peas 22.0) Beans 46.0) 1,300 Dates 25.o) Sesame 5.2 n.a.

39. The major crop of commercial importance is medium staple cotton. It has become the pivot of the modern economy, covering about 20% of monetary GDP, including the value added by ginning, marketing and transport. It also accounts ior almost 80% of recorded exports and about 8% of the Central Governmentts tax revenue. As a result, fluctuations in cotton harvests and world cotton prices have their repercussions throughout the economy but particularly in the monetarized sector. Although commercial exploitation of cotton began in the 1920ts, the major growth occurred after World War II. Cotton cultivation employs about 500,000 farmers mainly on very small plots and using traditional methods. There has been increasing use of improved seed varieties and, to a lesser extent, of pesticides. Cotton is normally grown in rotation with groundnuts and millet. The total area devoted to cotton has varied from 280,000 to 300,000 hectares in the 19601s.

410. Output and yields of cotton have been very erratic. Cotton production has required the exertion of considerable social pressure if not outright coercion by the authorities, especially to persuade farmers to plant cotton on time sipce timely planting is crucial to the s-access of the crop. fwTf cotton& 3 elds increesed curirg the 1950ts to a peak of 350 kg. per hectare in 19•7/58. In 1959 the preparations for independence, including campaigning and elections, are said to have caused farmers to reduce their efforts, cotton was planted late and output fell forty percent. The next year a strong effort was made to obtain early planting and output more than doubled. In the following year unseasonable early rains again resulted in late planting, more excusable in this case, but with the same result; output fell from 98,000 to less than 47,000 tons of raw cotton. Since then the authorities have exerted vigorous efforts to assure timely planting and introduced a productivity campaign in selected areas with outstanding success.

1/ Unginned cotton sometimes referred to as seed cotton.

- 1. -

41. Yields have improved during the past four years until a new high of 4L0 kg. per hectare was reached for the 1966/67 crop. Total output of raw cotton in this last year was 123,000 tons, 17% above the previous peak year. Output has averaged over 100,000 tons per year for the last four years, compared with 70,000 in the preceding four-year period. Ginning yields had improved greatly during the 1950 s rising from 29% to 37%0 based upon new cotton varieties developed in Chad research stations under the IRCT.! Further improvement in ginning yields will depend upon results from the new varieties now being developed.

42. The growth of cotton production in Chad has been due to the joint action of the Government administration (French and Chadian) and the Soci6t6 CotonniAre Franco-Tchadienne (COTONFRAN). The latter is a private French and Belgian company in which Chad holds 15% of the capital. COTONFRAN has the monopoly for the purchasing, ginning and marketing of cotton under a convention which will expire in 1970. Under the convention COTONFRAN is obliged to purchase the entire cotton output, to maintain purchasing centers with ginning and processing capacity adequate to handle the cotton crop. The agreement is drawn to give the company an incentive to operate efficiently, to obtain maximum ginning yields, control costs and obtain naximum prices. The company has been responsible in large part for the distribution of the improved seed varieties and for other measures to increase output.

43. The Caisse de Stabilisation du Prix du Coton (CSPC) is an autonomous government agency responsible for carrying out the government s cotton policy, particularly the price support policy.2/ It also supervises the implementation of the convention writh COTONFRAN.

44. The price guaranteed by Government has been CFAF 26 per kg. of seed cotton for the last three years. This is about 18% below the peak average price paid during the 1961/62 season w,hen a bonus was given f'or timely planting. Average gross cotton income3' per farmer was $26 f'or the 1966/67 crop compared with $23 in 1960/61 while the prices paid by cotton farmers have in the meantime increased substantially. In real termrs the farmer is worse off now than seven years ago.

45. Even with this 'Low price at the farm,LJ the costs of transport, ginning and marketing are so high that recent world prices F.O.B. IWest African Ports do not cover the cost of Chad cotton delivered to the port. (See columns 4 and 5 in the followring table).

1/ Institut de Recherche pour le Cbton et les Fibres Textiles. Y/ Prior to 1964 a Joint Cotton Stabilization Fund was in operation for both Chad and the C.A.R. Its operations were then split and national stabilization bodies formed.

/ Before the deduction of the cost of inputs (seed, pesticides, etc.) Lh/ Equivalent to US 4.8 cents per pound compared vwith a guaranteed farm price in the U.S. for 1" cotton of US 7 cents. I q - 12 -

CFAF/Kg.

Cotton Fiber Y'ear Price to Farmer Delivered W. African Port -- Raw Cotton Cotton FiberLS. World Price Cost Chad Cottor (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 1960/61 28.04 78.40 146.20 150.75 1961/62 30.66 8354 147.)45 186.29 1962/63 28.67 78.15 138.85 154.58 1963/64 27.45 75.8h 142.00 153.28 1964/65 26.00 70.67 136.50 148.94 1965/66 26.00 70.10 129.50 149.97 1966/67 26.00 70.98 129.00 141.20

Ia Estimated by CSPC.

lhe decline in world prices during the past few years has been partially countered by some reduction in ginning and transport costs. Transport costs in 1965/66 still represented about 15% of the cost delivered to the port. It is estimated that 10% were for transport costs outside Chadts borders. Custom duties amounted to 11% of F.0.B. costs.

46. Under the convention wiith COTOINFRAN the company receives an export commission and participates in the profits of the operation according t,o an agreed but complicated formula under which CSPC also shares in total income before COTONFRANIs profits are calculated. The results have not been unfavorable for the company with returns as follows (in percent):

Return Return on Equity Capital Crop Year on Equity Capital and Reserves

1961/62 3.85 3.50 1962/63 19.41 16.73 1963/64 17.32 14.57 1964/65 14.30 11.71 1965/66 0.39 0.31 1966/67 (est.) 19.62 n.a.

47. The Government through the CSPC makes up the difference between the guaranteed price and the "conventional' price paid to the farmer by COTONFRAN. The cost of the price subsidies have ranged from CFAF 399 million to CFAF 825 million during the last seven years. During the same period, CSPC's share in the company's gross profit after deduction of the export commission has ranged from CFAF 405 million down to a minus CFAF 259 million.

- 13 -

In effect the Government bears the net burden of the price guarantee to the farmer as well as the additional burden of losses on cotton operations during bad years. Chad has received substantial aid from France and FED to make up the resulting deficits. French assistance was provided through the "Fonds de Soutien pour le Textile d?0utre Mere' (FSTOM) until 1963/64. For the 1964/65 crop year the French treasury provided interim support.11 The 3ame year the FED recognizing that the elimination of the support programs would greatly burden Chad (and other associated states), agreed to provide special temporary and declining financial assistance for a four-year period totaling CFAF 1,047.6 million. Aid from 1960/61 through 1966/67 ranged from CFAF 273 million to CFAF 662 million reaching a total of about CFAF 3 billion. The consolidated position of the CSPC is summarized in the following table.

Cost of CSPC Share of Total Receipts/ Price Support COTONFRAN Income AID Disbursements (

1960/1961 - 597.0 404.6 272. 80.1 1961/1962 - 396.8 -258.9 281.542 -374.2 1962/1963 - 751.3 160.1 661.6/a 70.4 1963/1964 - 663.o 217.9 485.0. 39.9 1964/1965 - 554.1 68.8 365.64. -119.7 1965/1966 - 600.0 - 62.6 272. -390.0 1966/1967 (est.) - 824.9 271.2 6561.0L 102.3

Total -4,387.1 801.1 2,994.8 -591.2

4a FST0M

A) :7,D

_FEr) .-clu1din- advanc a of C AF 436 million and estimated disbursements under the 4-year program.

48. The Government has made up CSPC t s deficit, after aid, from current revenue. It is importait to note that cotton costs include export duties of about 11% on the 7.0.13. price of'cotton plus a small turnover tax. Over the years these duties have come to be an important element in the Government fiscal planning. Daring the above period export duties on cotton have totaled over CFAF 4 billion wihich is an amount greater than aid plus the deficits of the CSPC. This indicates t[fo things. First of all, without the burden of export duties, Chad cotton can compete in the world market ard secondly, that the foreign aid to support cotton is in effect a form of disguised budget support. However, under Chadts circumstances the Government cannot give up the revenues from cotton duties. The present fiscal imbalance, which will be discussed later, would have arisen much sooner had not the Government continued to collect duties and receive cotton aid.

V/ Later repaid by FED.

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49. The FED assistance to the price support program was complemented by a productivity program paid for by FED and organized by the "Compagnie Frangaise pour le D6veloppement des Fibres Textiles" (CFDT), a French semi- public technical assistance and management enterprise. The program, also for four years, provides for concentrated productivity action in selected areas costing a total of CFAF 680 million, of which about 45% is paid for by the farmers themselves. The annual program costs and target areas are ELS follows:

(CFAF Million) Farmerst FED Years Hectares Total Cost Contribution Grants

1965/66 15,000 114.7 37.6 77.1 3966/67 20,000 152.2 60.5 91.7 1967/68 25,000 189.0 88.1 100.9 1]968/69 30,000 224.4 139.8 104.6 680.3 306.0 374.3 50. The program provides for the application of modern methods including timely sowing of cotton, intensive pest control, the use of iertilizer and, perhaps most important for the long-range development of agriculture as a whole, the use of cattle draft power and improved implements. Introduction of two new seed varieties HG9 and P14 are ailso an important part of the program. These new varieties, which were developed by the(IRCT) research stations and multiplied on their farms, are superior both in staple length and in tensile strength to the Allen varieties now in use. Although the new varieties provided less than 5% of the 1965/66 crop, they are expected to be in general use within two or three years.

151. Di 1965/66 and 1966/67 the area targets of the program were met and in the :Latter year yields of raw cotton ranged from 656 kg/ha to :L800 kg/ha on the areas selected for intensive effort by the CFDT, compared with )410 kg/ha for the country as a whole. Because of these very encouraging results the Government is increasing the target area to 30,000 ha in 1967/68 and 40,000 in 1968/69. They expect to continue the program with targets of 50,000 and 60,000 ha in the subsequent two years if financing can be found.

52. The FED program to support cotton prices is to end with the 1967/68 season. Originally it was expected that Chad cotton could compete in world markets by that time. This expectation was tied to the assumption that world cotton prices would remain at the 1964 level whish has not been the case. Chad has recognized that the objective will not beiachieved and in early 1967 asked the Committee on Trade and DerelopD-r.nt §i;> TTL to consider its problems, expressing concern for the effect ofi thke Z;w farm legislation adopted by the United States. on world cotton prices and trade.

53. The GATT prepared a report on the economic problems of Chad and has dravn the attention of its members to :

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"(a) the dependence of Chadls economy on cotton which will continue for some time despite its efforts to diversify;

(b) falling world cotton prices over the past decade and financial difficulties that have accompanied this development have seriously hampered the economic advancement of a country so very underdeveloped and so dependent on cotton as Chad;

(d) the need of Chad to accelerate the diversification of its economy and as part of this process to improve infrastructure and transport;

(e) the importance of the economic programs of Chad and especially the first five-year plan to its efforts to improve the productivity of existing production and to achieve greater diversification;

(f) the reliance of Chad on appropriate financial and technical assistance to supplement its atrm resources."

The future prospects of Chad cotton will be discussed later in the report.

54. The remaining commercial crops, wheat and rice, are relatively unimportant and the greater part of their production is consumed by the grower as the following table indicates:

Metric Tons 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 WhLeat: Production 2,000 1,600 1)340 2,600 3,830 4,500 6,70/0 Marketed n.a. 955 826 600 1,961 1,109 n.a. Paddy: Production 22,000 23,000 25,200 26,000 25,000 n.a. 36,96o 4,518 2,392 3,655 4,995 5,749 2,699 n.a.

Rice: Production 2,235 1,672 2,398 3,279 3,843 1,851 n.a.

Wheat is marketed through Somable, a semi-autonomous government agency, and sold to a private flour mill in Fort Lamny which started production in 1964. The mill has an annual capacity of 7,500 tons of wheat and the Government is committed to provide it with raw material sufficient to keep it functioning. In 1964 Chazd obtained an Ullocation of 5,880 tons of wheat from the World Food Program to be used over three years. It is negotiating to obtain an additional 7,000 tons of wheat to be utilized over five years.

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These amounts will assist the Government in meeting its commitments to the flour mill. Proceeds from the sale of World Food Program wheat are invested in the polder area of Lake Chad to increase local production and attain self-sufficiency.

55v. Paddy is purchased for processing by one private and two government mills. Paddy production which was gravely affected by insufficient rainfall in 1965/66 attained a record in 1966/67 of almost 37,000 tons compared with an average of 24,000 tons in the period 1961-65. It is groam mainly in inlndated areas without proper water control with the exception of the rice plantation at Bongor. Rice prices have been too high to cause imich shift in consumer preferences from millet.

Livestock

56. Recently revised estimates indicate that livestock and poultry population in 1966 were considerably above the very rough estimates which had been accepted over the period 1961-65.

Thousands of Heads ~~~~ ~~Revised 1961-65 Estimate 1966 Cattle 4,000 4,5o0 Sheep and goats 4,000 4,150 Camels 350 355 Donkeys 300 303 Horses 150 153 Pigs 5 5 Poultry 4,000 4,000

The important changes are in the cattle, sheep and goat population particularly the former. The revision is not a reflection of actual growth but is thought to indicate a correction of population data.

5.7. The annual value of production of the livestock sector (internal consumption of milk, milk products and meat and the export of meat, live aiumals, and hides and skins) increased from about CFAF 9.1 billion in 1961 to 9.5 billion in 1965 representing a constant share, about 27.5% of the total production of all agricultural commodities and foodstuffs. Exports of meat, live animals, and hides and skins in 1966 were estimated at about CFAF 2.2 billion (27% of total goods exported) of which about 40% were wurecorded exports of live animals to Nigeria and the C.A.R.

53. Although livestock management is far from optimal in economic terms, change is likely to be slow for social and cultural rather than economic reasons. Cattle are the traditional store of wealth for the grower, particularly for the nomadic and semi-settled tribal families. In many areas cattle are the medium of payment for brides.

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59. Milk (and milk products) from all animals including horses and camels provide the greater part of the family food intake, especially for the nomadic and semi-nomadic grazer. Diets are supplemented by small, quantities of millet, (growm or bartered) and occasionally by meat.!/ Excessive milking is the rule, especially of cows, leaving little milk for young calves, with the result that calf mortality is high. Animals mature slowly and herd levels are maintained by keeping overage animals ten years or more of age. Herds are reduced periodically by high mortality rates when pastures and water supplies are hit by droughts. However, the effects of drought do not show up in the official statistics of the animal population, in part because herds are shifted from region to region to escape drought areas. National boundaries mean little to the grazer arho forage their animals as far as the Sudan, Libya, Niger, Cameroon or Nigeria.

60. Marketing problems are serious. Grazers must move their cattle very long distances with limited watering points en route to market centers, particularly during the dry season. Overgrazing occurs around wells and limits their use. A part of exports on the hoof yield low returns since cattle are traded in poor physical condition and in a situation where the grazer has a weak bargaining position. Marketing channels are not well known but it is reported that in the traditional cattle trade about half of the total transactions are in the hands of only ten dealers. The death rate of cattle en route to both local and export markets is high and only the export of large herds is profitable; this involves large capital out- lays and limits the number of dealers. A large part of the traffic to Nigeria is organized by Hausas.

61. The real effect of the livestock trade on the economy is difficult to measure, in the absence of reliable statistics. The trade follows traditional patterns and remains largely uncontrolled. It is interwoven with other commercial activities in Central Africa, including the movement of smuggled imports into Chad. However, it appears advantageous to the livestock grazer to continue this traditional trade, if for no other reason than to escape taxes and customs duties on both exports and imports.

62. The infrastructure serving the livestock sector is minimal, although it is undergoing improvement. Since 1950, Chad has added 485 wells and 25 tubewells in the cattle grazing areas. There are only two modern ranches and these suffer from undercapitalization. However, results are encouraging from the point of view of livestock improvement. There are also two modern slaughterhouses, one at Fort Lamy working close to full capacity, the second at Fort Archambault, although showing improvement in 1966, is working at about one-fifth of capacity. Together they produce 80% of controlled meat output. A new complex for meat canning and the production of tins has been started in Fort Archambault. Later on it will include a tannery and a shoe factory as well. It is difficult to

lJ Milk consumption is estimated at about 200 million liters per year valued at CFAF 2.5 million.

- 18 - assess whether such an investment will be profitable. No detailed studies of the supply or market prospects for the complex seem to have been made. Fort Archambault is located at some 500-700 kms. from the main cattle raisi;rg areas. The numbers of cattle brought there are insufficient and arrive in bad condition. At present only about 12% of the annual cattle offtake is processed industrially within the country and perhaps an additional 5 to 7% is processed in a traditional way for the preparation of dry meat.

63. Estimates of cattle offtake show a rise from about 7.5% to 9% from 1960- 965. Actual numbers of cattle sold or butchered rose rapidly in 1966./ Results from Kanem prefecture show that offtake increases and the weight and quality of cattle improves substantially where sufficient grass is available and water is provided. Although under African conditions cattle health is relatively good, diseases are still an important restraint on livestock output in Chad, except for rinderpest which has been largely eradicated through programs of inoculation. In the southern part of the regional country,livestock raising is limited by the tsetse fly. A program of inoculations, carried out with vigor, particularly in 1963, led to a decrease in deaths from disease. The inoculation program also allowed. for some increase in offtake. Unfortunately the collection of taxes has often centered around the veterinary stations, with a consequent reduction in results.

64. Slaughter has increased as a percentage of the total offtake, from 40% in 1960 to 56% in 1966. This is indicative of a rise in local consumption of meat and some increase in exports of fresh and chilled meat by air. Exports on the hoof have decreased from 60 to 44tdof offtake although total numbers exported in 1966 were only slightly below the 1960 figure. Figures for sheep and goats indicate offtake of about 20%.

65. Taxation on livestock is said to be punitive; estimates by the livestock experts indicate that up to 505 of the value of an animal is collected in various taxes. This explains why only o0-50% of exports of cattle are recorded and only 20% of the total exports of sheep and goats. For the same reason, total slaughter of cattle is three times that slaughtered under Government control. For sheep and goats uncontrolled slaughter represents rine-tenths of the total.

66. In the industrial sector meat processing remained fairly stable from 1960 to 1966. Exports of fresh and chilled meat declined after 1961, due to the combined effect of increased air tariffs and the loss of the Congo (Kinshasa) market, but increased moderately in recent years. Usual outlets for meat have been Cameroon, Gabon, Congo (B) and the Central African Republic. The Libya market is a recent addition. In the modern sector exports are carried out by seven private exporters by air, more than 60% of which take place through Prodel, a firm located in Fort Lamy.

1/ Percentage offtake declined to 8.7% due to the revision of estimates of cattle population.

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67. The export of hides and skins has been declining largely because poor flaying and curing makes them unable to compete in the world market.

ELsheries

683. Fish production is estimated at about 100,000 tons. The Lake Chad fishing waters border Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon and it is probable that some double counting takes place in the estimates of production from the four countries. Nevertheless, it is certain that average incomes of Chad fishermen are substantially higher than incomes in the agricultural and livestock sectors. About 12% of total fish output was exported in 1966, almost entirely without control and mainly to the Cameroon and Central African Republic.

Gum Arabic

69. In 1955/56 production of gum arabic was started in the Eastern Biltine region of Chad. Initial production of 5 tons increased rapidly and averaged about 600 tons through 1965. Exports rose further to a peak of 1,201 tons in 1966 valued at CFAF 65 million. Since 1961/62 gum arabic has been purchased from the producers by a semi-autonomous Government agency and processed in Fort Lamry prior to export. Internal and external transport costs represent about 40% of the F.O.B. price. There may be advantages to processing gum in the producing regions of the east rather than at Fort Lamy and exporting it via the Sudan. lIndustry

70. Something over thirty enterprises constitute the bulk of Chad industry. A number of them, including some of the more important ones, are engaged in processing local agricultural products, cotton, livestock, wheat, and rice. Most of them have limited fixed investments and a small number of employees. Only seven have fixed investments above CFAF 250 million ($1 million) or have more than 100 employees.

71. The most important industrial enterprise is COTONFRAN which has been operating for many years as indicated in the section on cotton. It has expanded its activities and now operates twenty-five cotton gins with a total capacity of 120,000 tons of raw cotton. COTONFRAN also operates an oil mill but only small quantities of seeds are pressed for oil, the balance being used as fuel to power the gins. The company employs about 1,400 permanent workers and another 2,100 during the six months of major activity.

72. During the 1966/67 season COTONFRANIs gins were fully employed so that the company has started to install additional capacity. The investment program includes planned reduction in the number of small inef- ficient gins. In the past the gins have been widely dispersed throughout the cotton growing areas due to the difficulties of transporting raw cotton.

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The installation of fewer but larger mills will extend the ginning season arnd should reduce fixed costs of both ginning and transport. The success of this program depends upon the completion of the feeder road program in cotton grcming areas being financed by the FED. Another factor in COTON- FRANIs high costs is the employment of a large number of expatriates at middle and top levels. A program of training Chadians for more responsible positions should be instituted but will take time to accomplish.

73. Other established industries include the tvro slaughterhouses, twro brick plants, a tile plant, four small furniture companies, a cycle assembly plant, and a transistor radio assembly plant.,

74. Sixteen new enterprises have come into being since 1960, the most important of which is the new textile factory at Fort Archambault completed in early 1967.

75. The Societ6 Textile du Tchad (S.T.T.) is a joint French-German venture with Cameroon and Chad participation. The company has fixed investments of CFAF 1,390 million and an annual capacity of 8 million meters of cotton cloth, to be increased to 12 and 15 million meters in 1969 and 1973, respectively. S.T.T. has twenty foreign and 390 local workers. Initial production is to begin during 1967 and should reduce textile inports by at least CFAF 500 million per year. 76. In 1964 a brewery was created at Moundou, with fixed investments of CFAF 580 million and an annual capacity of 30,000 hectoliters of beer. It has ten foreign and 130 local employees. It is operating profitably at over 2/3 capacity and will be expanded in 1967.

77. In 1965 a sugar processing factory started production. It uses imported raw sugar from Congo (B) for the preparation of refined sugar cones. The factory has fixed investments amounting to CFAF 250 million and an annual capacity of 6,000 tons which is to be increased to 10,000 tons by 1968. It has seven expatriates and 160 local employees. 1965 output was valued at CFAF 610 million. 78. In the first quarter of 1967, an integrated meat cannery and tins factory started production at Fort Archambault. Fixed investments amounting to CFAF 412 million have already taken place while a tannery and a shoe factory will be set up later during the year or in 1968, bringing the total investment to CFAF 725 million.

79. CFAF 502 million was invested in 1966 for the construction of a 104-room hotel at Fort Lazmy. The Hotel La Chadienne is a modern air- conditioned hotel of international standard and is eXpected to serve the modest growith of tourism.

80. A flour mill was completed at Fort Lamy in 1964 with fixed investments of CFAF 140 million and an annual capacity for processing 7,500 tons of wheat. It encountered problems of raw material availability and is operating at 50% of capacity. It is being supplied in vart through the World Food Program. Output was valued at CFAF 195 raillion in :L965.

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81. Most of the industries in Chad serve the local market but the most important, COTONFRAN, is aimed at the export market. In the future a small part of its output will go to the textile factory. The slaughterhouses and the meat canning plant serve both the local market and exports to nearby countries.

82. Except for cotton ginning, industry is concentrated in Fort Lamy and Fort Archambault. Moundou has the brewery but little else. The Govern- ment policy has been to prevent all industry from being established at the capital and has tended to favor Fort Archambault for new industries as a gesture to regional development.

83. Investment in industry has been almost entirely from private foreign sources. The Government has participated in a few large industries and through the Development Bank it has participated in several small ones. Government policy actively encourages private investment through a liberal investment code.

Dtning

81X. Natron, a hydrated sodium carbonate, is practically the only mineral exploited in Chad. It is used as salt for human and animal consumption and in the production of soap. Production and export data followr:

1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 7tons) Production 5,612 7,324 10,063 7,665 8,677 n.a. e ports 3,189 4,919 7,615 6,184 6,271 3,985

Total earnings of the producers for 1965 were estimated at CFAF 21 million and the total value of the 1965 production at Fort Lamy at CFAF 75 million. Exports were valued at CFAF 53.3 million in 1965 and CFAF 43.5 mi:Llion in 1966.

85. Exploration for oil has been abandoned but there are continuing geological investigations of a general nature which will be discussed under future prospects.

Power

86. Powzer production and distribution is by the Societe Equatoriale dl[Energie Electrique (SEEE), a public institution owned by French public interests, in wJhich the Equatoria]L African governments also participate. All power is thermal generated and is expensive, costing 15 CFA7 per kwh () cents U.S.). The price is the consequence of the high cost of imported fuel which represent, two thia'ds of the price.

87. Power production has increased rapidly on a very small base. Tthe average anual increase has been 19.35O since 1961 in the three most important- installations at Fort Lamy, Moundou and Abech6. Fort Lamy accounts for 93% of all power produced.

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1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 (thousands of KWHs)

Fort Lamy 8,905 11,119 13,297 14,933 16,262 19,959 Ab6ch6 - - 328 365 294 339 Moundou - - - 406 1,168 1,242 8,905 11,119 13,625 15,704 17,724 21,540

88. Works are being carried out to increase pover installed at Fort Lanv from 12,000 to 18,000 kIns, at a cost of about CFAF 250 million. The new installed capacity is expected to meet demand for several years. A large share of power production at Fort Lany is for private use.

89. The center at Moundou has an installed capacity of 900 kt¢Is. It started produiction only in mid-1964, and it is utilized mainly to supply the local facilities of COTONFRAN and the brewery. About 60% of its sales are of high tension power. Ab6ch6 has only a small installed capacity of 460 kws, mainly for private use. Installations at Largeau and at Moussoro have a capacity of 240 kws and 48 kws. respectively. Their production is small and used mainly to supply military facilities.

90. Total sales of high tension power for indus-trial uses have increased more rapidly than sales for private use, 23.37% as compared wuith 15.2%.

91. Investments are being carried out at Fort Archambault to install new capacity totaling 5,000 kws. The new power plant will supply the textile factory and the cannery complex as well as private users.

Transport

92. Chad presents formidable problems in the transport sector for both internal and external traffic. The most serious factor is the extremely long distances to African ports. Five routes to the sea serve Chad at distances varying from 1,705 to 2,950 kilometers. All involve at least one transshipment. These routes do not offer clear cut alternatives. One may serve one area of Chad more cheaply than another but be more expensive for other areas. Another may be more suited for one par- ticular commodity than for others. Specific cases are discussed below.

93. Among the routes serving Chad the Trans-equatorial route is the most commonly used. It is a combined rail-river-road route from Moundou and Fort Archambault to Pointe Noire via Bangui and Brazzaville. Pointe Noire is 2,450 kms from Moundou and 2,945 kms from Fort Lamry. The last stage--the road from Bangui to Moundou or Fort Archambault- presents great difficulties during the rainy season. The Trans-equatorial route is competitive with the other routes up to the 10th parallel North and has the further advantage that charges are in CFA francs which strengthens the regional customs and economic unit (UDEAC).

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94. There are two Nigerian routes which put Fort lamy 1,705 km from Port Harcourt and 2,090 km from Lagos. It is reached via a 250 km road to Maiduguri and by rail from Maiduguri to Port Harcourt or Lagos. Until the Nigerian difficulties, these routes provided rapid and regular service throughout most of the year. Their capacity was almost unlimited for Chadian imports, but was limited for exports since the annual export traffic of about 400,000 tons of groundnuts produced in Northern Nigeria have priority. Petroleum products mnde up 60% of the traffic via Nigeria from the stockage point at Kano. *With the political unrest this route has become less reliable and transport costs have increased by at least 10%. Delays in deliveries of petrol during 1966 and 1967 caused shortages of fiael stocks at Fort Lamy. As a result part of the petrol traffic is now routed via Bangui at increased cost. When the Nigerian political situation stettles doam, this route will probably remain the most economical route for Fort Lany and the western part of Chad, especially for petrol. This route has the disadvantage that it costs the customs union about CFAF 1 billion pesr year in foreign exchange.

95. The Benu6 route, also mainly Nigerian, links southern Chad with the port of Burutu, which is 1,982 km from Moundou and 2,136 km from Fort Lamy. It involves a river link of 1,550 km on the Benu6, which is navigable only in September and October, and a road link from Garoua in Cameroon to Southern Chad. It is the cheapest route to the sea, but also the slowest and least regular; it is used mainly for the import of cement and the export oi cotton.

96. The Cameroon road is an expensive and little utilized route linking Chad to Douala through Yaounde and Garoua over distances varying from 1,620 to 2,080 kms. However, the extension of the Cameroon railway to Ngaoundere which is expected to be completed in the early 1970ts Wi1ll make it one of the most important connections of Chad with abroad. Two altrnative connections with the railway are foreseen; one, an improved road via Garoua and Fort Foureau to Fort Lamy and second, a new link from NgaoundeV tc, Moundou will serve the southern and western parts of the country.>

97. Finally, the Sudanese railway, completed by a short road, links Ab&ch6 to Port Sudan over a distance of 2,660 kms. It is practically unused but is being considered for bulk cargos such as petrol to meet the needs of the Eastern region of Chad.

98. The internal transportation network of Chad consists of some 12,000 kms of roads and 20,000 kms of feeder roads. There are also 1,570 bridges and 13 ferries. Roads are poorly maintained although national routes of over 2,000 kms receive better treatment with mechanized maintenance on occasion. The route connecting Fort Lamy with Bangui via Fort Archambault is maintained by the regional transportation agency, Agence Trans-Equatoriale des Communications (ATEC). All roads are earth

J The alternative of a railway connection between Ngaoundere, Moundou and possibly Fort Archambault has the strong support of the Chad Govern- ment. A feasibility study has been proposed to determine whether a raiL link is preferable.

except a few kilometers from Fort Lamny to Massakory. It is estimated that 75% of the traffic is carried on about 2,500 kms of road mainly on the route from Bangui to Fort Lamy and the route to Nigeria. During the rainy season practically the whole eastern region of the country remains isolated. Distances between the main urban centers are great. Roads are in such poor condition that complete depreciation of commercial vehicles must be calculated over three to four years. It is estimated that the cost of spare parts and maintenance of trucks doubles during the second year and is multiplied by a factor of seven in the third year. The necessity of keeping large stocks of gasoline and spare parts further increases transport costs.

99. In general the annual tonnage hauled by road traffic followTs the trends of imports and exports. In 1966, the Bangui-Brazzaville- Pointe Noire route, because of recent events, carried about 60% of the tonnage compared with 30% via Nigeria and 10% via Cameroon.

100. The number of registered trucks declined by twenty percent between 1962 and 1965. This was the result of an evident overcapacity and fierce competition. There has been some shift toward heavier vehicles (over 5 tons) but this has been limited by the poor condition of most road.s wThich even under normal conditions wqill not carry the heavier, more economical vehicles .l/ There is probably still some overcapacity in the transport system even at present. It is quite evident that the truck fleet could be reduced if cotton movements were spread over a longer period. Road improvements are a prerequisite to a more rational distribution of traffic over the year and a reduction in the number arid an increase in the size of vehicles. In turn, transport costs would be reduced.

101. At present the maintenance of roads, bridges and ferr:ies are financed in the main by the Road Fund which has its own revenues amounting to CFAF 130 million2J and by a general budget allocation of another CFAF 50 to 100 million. Funds are insufficient for maintenance of the entire s stem. The mechanical maintenance equipment of the Public Works Depart- ment is sensibly concentrated on the approximately 2,000 km of national dighways which carry the bulk of the traffic. Foreign aid has been used to rebuild roads which have fallen into serious disrepair but annual rebuilding of eroded sections is common.

102. The number of private vehicles increased by fifty percent between 1962 and 1965 and thus is increasing demand for all-weather roads betwieen the main urban centers both for commercial and private traffic.

'| The cost of transport per ton-km is estimated at CFAF 15.15 for gasoline trucks with a carrying capacity belows 5 tons, CFAF 10.80 for diesel trucks with a carrying capacity of 10-12 tons,and 12 ton diesels and 12 ton trailers is CFAF 7.63. < A share of petrol taxes are earmarked for the Road Fund.

103. Chad is relatively well served by air transport services. AXr Afrique and Union Transport A6rien provide international services and Air Chad serves internal routes. Fort lamy airport receives the large jets and Fort Archambault and Moundou can take Caravelles. A new Caravelle service of Air Afrique has recently begum serving the capitals of the UDEAC countries.

104. Air transport movements have increased with passenger traffic showing more rapid groawth than freight. Passenger arrivals and departures reached 75,000 in 1966 almost sixty percent above the 1960 level. Depar- tures exceeded arrivals substantially in the years immediately after independence and in 1965 when the last French army units withdrew. There has also been some net emigration of Chadians, though most emigrants depart to nearby countries by other means. Air freight has been increased by only 9% between 1960 and 1966 with some decline occurring in the intervening years, particularly after air shipments of fresh meat to Congo (K) were cut off. Commercial service was provided only to Fort Lamy, Fort Archambault and Moundou until 1964 when Ab6ch4, Bongor, Largeau and Pala were added to the internal net-urork. Fort Lamy is the only center of international importance, accounting for almost 80%o of passenger and 90% of freight traffic in 1966.

105. There is some river traffic on the Chari within Chad amounting to perhaps 10,000 tons a year. Traffic is limited to seven months during the year and about half of the movement is to Fort Lamy during the rainy season when roads are impassable.

C. External Finance

Foreign Trade

l06. Accurate and comprehensive foreign trade data for Chad are not readily available due to substantial clandestine or unrecorded trade. A major share of exports of live cattle and smoked or salted fish are not recorded, neither are many imports, part of wlhich are received by cattle and fish "Ismugglers" in payment for their goods. From the point of viei of the Chadian livestock grower and fisherman he is carrying on the normal marketing traditions of his ancestors. The northern grazer has been accustomed for generations to sell his cattle to buyers from Nigeria or to take his cattle there himself and in return to purchase goods in Nigeria where they were cheaper. One effect of the troubles in Nigeria has been to reduce its share of clandestine trade. During 1965 there was some decline in total exports of live animals but 1966 saw a recovery. Clandes- tine trade in live cattle with the Central African Republic, which has be!en a customary market for certain areas of Chad, seems to have increased in the last year or two. This is probably to avoid the veterinary in- spection fee which takes the place of an export duty for the C.A.R. trade.V/

1/ No export duties are charged on intra-UDEAC trade.

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The fishermen have an easier time than the herdsmen in eluding customs since Lake Chad is bordered by Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger and Chad and the two major rivers, the Logone and the Chari are close to the Nigerian and Cameroon frontiers. In general, clandestine imports during 1966 are believed to have declined greatly. This may be the result of the Nigerian situation.

107. Published trade statistics, which do not include intra-UDEAC and clandestine trade, show wide annual variations in the deficit on merchandise account.

In Billions of CFA Francs 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 Imports 6.24 6.25 7.51 7.17 8.54 7.71 7.96 Exports 3.27 5.29 4.18 5.61 6.54 6.72 5.85 Surplus/Deficit (-) -2.97 -0.96 -3.33 -1.56 -2.00 -0.99 -2.11 Exports as % of Imports 52 86 56 78 77 87 74

108. Recorded imports in 1966 were about 28% above the 1960 level, an increase of 4.2% per year. Imports have varied less than exports. The variations appear to hinge on three main factors: the level of income from the previous yearls export crop, the growth of UDEAC trade, and the departures of expatriates in 1960-61 and the French army in 1965 which reduced the inflow of funds (and goods) from abroad.

109. The variations in recorded exports are largely due to the fluctuations in cotton output and to the declining terms of trade for cotton. Cotton prices have declined 12% between 1960 and 1966. A comparison of exports in 1966 With 1960 is relatively meaningless because of the extremely bad cotton crop of 1959/60. However, it is notable that recorded exports covered 87%o0 of imports in 1965 but only 74% in 1966, again due to the reduced cotton crop.

110. Estimates of trade with the UDEAC countries show a rapid increase of imports in 1966 and a decline in exports:LJ

In billions of CFA francs 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

Imports n.a. n.a. 2.44 2.24 3. 92/ DEports 0.25 0.30 0.99 1.08 0.67/p0 Surplus/Deficit (-) n.a. n.a. -1.45 -1.16 -3.25

Exports as ' of imports n.a. n.a. 41 48 17

Ia Including re-exports of CFAF 837 million from outside UDEAC countries not included in Chad recorded trade. /b Including CFAF 150 million of re-exports.

- 27 -

A part of the decline in recorded exports to the UDEAC countries is probably due to the increase of clandestine exports of cattle on the hoof to the Central African Republic. The growth in imports is an encouraging development for the (Cstoms Union countries, whose policy is to increase their trade as their industrial capacity expands.

111. Overall merchandise trade, including estimated clandestine, UDEAC and recorded trade, shows a more consistent declining trend in Chadfs trade position. In billions of CFA Francs 1961 1962 1963 196h 1965 1966 Imports 9,57 10.99 11.08 13.04 11.65 12.38 Exports 7.64 8.26 8.37 8.98 9.21 8.23 Surplus Deficit (-) -1093 -2.73 -2.71 -4.o6 -2.!4i -h.15 Exports % of Imports 80 75 77 69 79 66 112. Since 1961 total estimated imports have grown over 29% at an annual rate of 5.2%. Exports grew at about the same rate through 1965 but declined in 1966 due to the poor cotton crop.

113. The sectoral distribution of merchandise trade shows some decline in the shares of food in recorded imports and slight increases in shares of fuel and lubricants, consumer durables, non-durables and equipment. In 1966, the most important recorded commodity imports were gasoline and gas oil (12%) autos and trucks (8%) and cotton textiles (8%). Major imports from the UDEAC countries are sugar, cigarettes and soap from Congo (B), cloth and footwear from Cameroon and beer and cloth from the C.A.R. France continues to provide about 50% of all recorded imports. Clandestine imports consist mainly of textiles and household goods from Nigeria and to a lesser extent from the Sudan.

114. Recorded exports are dominated by cotton, 77% in 1966. About 50% of recorded exports go to France as compared with 70% in 1960. Three-fourths of exports to UDEAC countries consist of live animals, fresh meat, and fish.

Balance of Payments

115. Balance of payments data for the UDEAC countries are fragmentary.i/ Nevertheless, with the help of the national accounts data and information on public transfers and capital transactions, the major elements of Chad's balance of payments from 1961-66 are summarized below. The estimates are

1| Information is available for countries outside the franc zone but within the zone the essential statistics are not maintained. Further complications arise in the countries of the UDEAC which have a common Central Bank which does not record many transactions, particularly private transfers. Never-- theless, by drawing on the estimates in the national accounts of private services some approximations are possible. As of July 1, 1967 accounts are being kept which will provide a better basis for balance of payments analysis.

ESTIMATED GLOBAL BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

(In billions of CFA Frarncs)

1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 Imports 9.57 10.99 11.08 13.04 11.65 12.38 Exports 7.64 8.26 8.37 8.98 9.21 8.23

Trade Balance - 1.93 - 2.73 - 2.71 - 4.o6 - 2.44 - 4.15

Private Services Net - 1.96 - 2.01 - 2.10 - 2.46 - 2.19 - 2.30

Public Transfers 3.55 4.00 4.53 3.21 2.88 2.96

Net Current Balance 00.34 - 0.74 - 0.28 - 3.31 - 1.75 - 3.49 Public Capital.Transactions 0.38 0.11 o.56 0.30 0.39 0.51

Private Capital Transactions 1.16 1.93 1.84 0.77 0.74 1.00 Net Current Balance and Capital Transactions 1.20 1.30 2.12 - 2.24 - 0.62 1.98

MIonetary Movements (increase -) 1.24 o.63 - 0.49 - o.o6 0.22 2.06

Errors and omissions - 2.44 - o.67 - 1.63 2.30 0.40 0.08

- 29 - not to be considered very reliable in ,iew of the large errors and omissions items in three of the last six years.Ye

116. The deficit on trade has risen from CFAF 1.93 billion in 1961 to CFAF 4.15 billion in 1966, an annual rate of over 16%. The deficit on goods and services has increased at a somewhat slower rate, at approcimately 12% per year. These deficits have been offset in large part by public grants and loans ancd to a lesser extent by foreign private investment. As indicated in Table 22A the greater part of foreign assistance to Chad has been from France and the European Economic Community.

117. No data are available on the extent of private transfers out of Chad which have,in most years,been balanced by public transfers and capital transactions. However, significant losses of Chadls imputed foreign exchange reserves occurred in 1961 and 1966. The loss of foreign exchange reserves reflected in the monetary movements during 1961 was largely attributable to the serious decline in cotton exports. In 1966 a more serious decline in reserves occurred due to a combination of circumstances. Imports increased while cotton exports declined over the 1965 level. The departure of French troops resulted in a reduced inflow of military funds while savings were transferred out. Although the level of foreign assistance for development purposes remained about the same as in 1964 and 1965 and foreign private investment increased due largely to the newi textile factory, Chadts reserves declined by over CFAF 2 billion. The decline has continued into 1967 with an additional loss of reserves of about CFAF 1.4 million in the first half of the year despite the record cotton crop of 1966/67. Imputed reserves at the end of June 1967 were minus CFAF 0.89 billion.-/

1 A further difficulty arises when one tries to reconcile balance of payments, fiscal and monetary data. There are no comprehensive national accounts and the lack of comparability in the data makes even rudimentary comparisons difficult. e.g. debt service reported in the budget cannot be cross checked nith comparable items in the balance of payments. 2/ Data on net foreign exchange reserves of Chad and other members of the UDEAC are only kept on a statistical basis since they share a common Central Bank with consolidated reserves. The imputed country reserve figures reported by the IIMF can showr negative reserves for one or more countries as long as the regionh overall reserves in the Banks consolidated account are at a satisfactory level. For example, in March 1967 two of the five countries showed negative imputed reserves, providing the followring position for the Central Bank holdings of foreign reserves: CFAF billion Cameroon 7.70 C.A.R. 0.69 Gabon 0.61 Congo (B) -0.75 Chad -0.45 llnallocated 0.17 Total 7.97

- 30 -

D. Money and Banking

The BCEAEC

118. The five members of the UDEAC share membership in a common central banik, the Banque Centrale des Stats de l'Afrique Equatoriale et du Cameroun (BCEAEC), which issues their common currency, the CFA franc.1/ Trhe countries are members of the franc zone and the CFA franc is freely convertible into French francs at the rate of 1 OFA franc 0.02 F. franc ($1 = CFA Franc 246.853).

119. The BCEAEC has a head office in each country and a central administrative office in Paris. Its capital of CFAF 250 million was made originally to the Institute of Issue of Equatorial Africa which was replaced by the BCEAEC in 1959. The Central Bank is managed by a Board of Directors and five Monetary Committees, one for each country. The Board includes eight members representing France, four from Cameroon, one from Chad and one from each of the other three countries. It is concerned with overall monetary policy while each Monetary Committee, which has some common members with the Board and on which France is also represented, is more directly concerned with operations, particularly with credit distribution in the country concerned.

120, Under the present agreement, which can be changed only after joint consultations of the member countries and France, the BCEAEC holds all its exchange reserves in French francs in an Operations Account with the Treasury of France with unlimited overdraft facilities. There are no external reserve requirements for individual member caun- tries. Separate statistical records of currency issued, credit and drawings on the Account are kept for each country within a consolidated account for the BCEAEC as a whole. Foreign exchange can be freely purchased by the member countries in the Paris exchange market; accounts for these drawings are kept in a French Treasury Operations Account for the Central Bakc but there are no limits on access to foreign exchange. France guarantees unlimited and free conversion of the CFA franc, even in case of a negative balance on Operations Account of the Central Bank. However, in case of prolonged deficits, France can sug- gest an increase of rediscount rates and a reduction of the rediscount ceilings. Although the BCEAEC is not obliged to follow these suggestions it would probably do so within the present framework.

1| Notes and coins issued by the Bank are legal tender in all member countries. Separate notes are issued for Cameroon and notes issued for the other four countries are identifiable by a letter following the serial number.

- 31 -

121. The credit policy of the Central Bank is managed by the use of rediscount ceilings and moral suasion. I/ The Central Bank can also vary discount rates as an instrument of policy but seldom does so. The minimum discount rate is 3% and has been for many years. Higher or lower rates have been charged under special circumstances. Open market operations as an instrument of policy are not possible in Chad. There is simply no market for government securities. The control of rediscount ceilings has been quite effective,because commercial banks depend upon the Centra:L Bank credit for financing a large share of their operations. The BCEAEC normally provides up to 50;g of the total credit to the economy through rediscounting operations, except when special seasonal factors intervene as in Chad during the cotton marketing season. The Monetary Comnittee periodically reallocates the rediscount ceilings of the local banks and major enterprises which may present commercial bills to the Banks for rediscounting.

122. The major credit activities in Chad are associated with the purchase and export of cotton and with the financing of imports and public works contracts. The Central Bank sets rediscount ceilings for eligible borrowing firms as it does for each commercial bank, separate ceilings being set for seasonal operations. Cotton purchases are financed by overdrafts and rediscounts of commercial paper. The Central Bank will rediscount up to 80/1 of public works credits for up to six months if financed by the Government budget. Until May 1966 the Central Bank was not permitted to give direct advances to the Treasury of Chad. This is now possible, but advances are limited to 10% of current receipts in the previous year for up to 240 days or to the next calendar year.

123. The Bank has already had the power to discount customs duty bills 2] held by the Treasury and rediscount Treasury bills of the commercial banks. It is able to grant advances against government bonds. Banks are required by law to subscribe to government bonds an amount equivalent to 10% of their deposits. Chad has had only one national bond issue for development purposes. This was in 1965 and raised about CFiAF 1.3 billion. The Central Bank can also provide medium-term credits for up to 5 years mainly on new productive investments. This has been limited by an overall ceiling for the five countries to a small share of total Central Bank credit.

1] After January 1, 1968 a liquidity ratio requirement was introduced.

2/ "Traites douanieres" representing customs duties owed by the private sector to. the CGovernment.

- 32 -

Monetary Development

124. Money supply grew from CFAF 5.31 billion in 1968 to CFAF 6.37 billion in 1966, equivalent to about 21% of monetary GDP. Over the entire period growtlh was limited to only 20% or about 3.1% per year. Each year money supply increases seasonally during March and April in connection with the markceting of cotton. The increase normally amounts to about 155 over the year-end figures with the greater part in currency in circulation. Currency represents about 75% of money supply.

12>5. Domestic credit grew from CFAF 2.67 billion at the end of 1960 to CFAF 6.84 billion at the end of 1966 and CFAF 7.89 billion by July 1967. The growth was almost entirely in the private sector and was characterized by seasonal peaks in the first quarter of each year coinciding with cotton marketing. The growth of credit to the private sector was offset during 1962-65 by an excess of Government deposits with the Central Bank over borrowing from either the Central or Commercial Banks. The three years of rapid growth of bank credit to the private sector were 1961, immediately after independence, in 1966 (after the departure of the French army, increased imports over the previous year and the large budgetary deficit) and in 1967. Total credit to the economy grew by 57% in 1961, by 38% in 1966 and by 15% in 1967. Net public borrowing increased by CFAF 0.88 billion in 1966 but remained at about the same level at the end of July 1967.

126. The growth of credit contributed to the decline in reserves discussed earlier since it permitted continued growth of imports while export earnings fell. This was most evident in 1966 when the estimated deficit ona goods and services account grew by CFAF 1.8 over the previous year while credit expanded by CFAF 2 billion.

Commercial Banks

127. The Central Bank's role in the control of commercial banks is limited to the regulation of total bank credit. Another agency in each country of the UDEAC, the National Credit Council, is concerned with liquidity ratios, banking terms and conditions, the admission of new banks, and the expansion of banking facilities in the country. It also advises the Government on monetary and credit policy, and on banking organization. The Council members are drawn from Government, the Central Bank, the Development Bank, and commercial banks.

128. There are three commercial banks in Chad. The Banque Tchadienne de Cr6dits et de D6p8ts (BTCD), the Banque Nationale de Paris (BNP), and the Banque Internationale de ltAfrique Occidentale (BIAO). All three are based in Fort Lamy. The BNP is French. The majority shareholder in BIAO is a French bank (51%), the balance of the capital being shared mainly by two New York banks. The BTCD, incorporated in Chad, is owned 51% by the Chad Development Bank and 49% by the Crgdit Lyonnais. The assets and liabilities of the commercial banks have grown from CFAF 2.9 billion ... - 33 -

in 1960 to CFAF 6.89 billion at the end of 1966 and CFAF 8.0 billion in mid 1967. Seasonal variations have been significant due mainly to the cotton business. The commercial banks have joined in a consortium with the Development Bank to finance cotton markelting which is the major commercial operation in Chad. Medium term credits wjhich are very small have been for industrial equipment, but only wzith the agreement of the BCEAEC. Commercial interest rates have been standardized since 1965 as follcws:

a) 3.75% for discounts of commodity warrants, b) 5% for discounts of commercial paper, c) 6% for straight advances..

Chad Development Bank

129. The Development Bank of Chad has a share capital of CFAF 420 miLlion distributed as follows:

Amount (I4;llions of CFA francs) Percent

Republic of Chad 245 58.34 CCCE a 140 33.33 BCEAEC 35 8.33

Total 420 100.00

La "Caisse Centre2 de Coop6ration Economique", a French Public agency.

Additional funds for the operaticns of the Bank have been provided by loans from the Caisse Centrale, deposits from public agencies, particularly the Chad Treasury, and from rediscounts by the Central Bank.

130. The greater part of the Development Bankls operation has been in financing the purchase and export of the cotton crop along with the commercial banks; the Development Bank provides 50% of the necess-ary financing. Since 1962-63, there has been some increase in the proportion of the Bank's activity in other types of credit. At that time, 90% of the Bankts loans were of commercial character. In the period June 1965 to December 1966 commercial credit declined to 76% of the total. The main shift has been to financing of house building and agricultural loans for extension of wheat production in the Lake Chad polder areas, for pesticides, fertilizer, and equipment. The following table showzs the amount and percentage distribution of the Bank t s lending cver recent years:

- 34 -

June 1965- Type of Loans 1962/63 1963/64 1965/66 Dec. 1966

(in millions of CFA francs)

Commercial credit 1,194 1,623 1,580 3,356 Building construction 72 124 274 700 Agricultural credit 1 76 291 362 Other 62 220 235 456

Total 1 329 2,043 2,380 4,874

(in percent)

Commercial credit 90 79 66 69 Building construction 5 6 12 14 Agricultural credit 0 4 12 7 Other 5 11 10 10

Total 100 100 100 100

131. It is clear that the activities of the Development Bank do not fit the accepted role of development banks. The neglect of the productive sectors may be in part historical accident but it is also due to the limited potential for productive investment in industry, transport, tourism, etc. and the very great difficulty in developing an effective agricultural credit organization.

132. Ulntil 1965, the agricultural credit program of the CDB was carried out; in collaboration with the extension service of the MIinistry of Agriculture. Since then the new organization, the "Office National de Developpement Rural" (ONDR) has been set up with additional technical assistance and more freedom from the bureaucracy. Credit operations, among others, are expected to improve but there are no plans for a rapid expansion of credit activities. Operations have been concentrated in the two Logone provinces (Moundou), Moyen Chari (Fort Archambault) and Mayo Kebi (Pala). Recovery rates on loans have varied greatly from region to regPion but the overall percentage of unpaid loans due in agriculture was 21.6% in 1964/65. In a limited area under the careful supervision of the BDPA in the peanut growing area collections were 100%O. In the cotton areas where CFDT is providing technical assistance unpaid loans were 12.2% in 1964/65 but the record is reported to have improved in 1966. In other areas wihere technical supervision by the extension staff is inadequate, unpaid loans were as high as 62%. Part of the difficulty in 1965 was said to result from the lNational Bond campaign at the same time that loan payments were due. Still there has been some overall improvement in the Development Bank's collection performances in recent years and flurther improvement is reported for 1966.

- 35 -

Amounts Unpaid on Loans Due (in percent)

Category of Loan 1961/62 1962/63 1963/6h 1964/65

Commercial credit a 11.67 0.36 0.1 - Agricultural credit - - - 21.6 Building construction 7.1 8.8 9.3 6.0 Commerce, ]ndustry, and Handicrafts 3.5 15.8 12.2 2.9 Rural community development - Consumer durables 1.1 2.9 4.6 5.1h Total 6.8 6.5 5.3 h.5

133. In addition to its credit activities the Bank has participated in the capital of various enterprises. Total participation at the end of 1966 amounted to CFAF 92 million of which the most important are in the BTCD for CFAF 25.50 million and the Societe wdhich

E. Prices and Wages

Prices

134. There is no satisfactory price index for the goods consumed by the local population. The official published index covers retail prices in Fort Iamy and applies to families with incomes over CFAF 100,000 per month -in effect the foreign population. These indices show that prices have increased by approximately 37'' over the six year period, 1960-66, an annual rate of 5.4%. The major causes appear to be increased prices of imported goods due in part to price increases abroad and in part to increased import duties collected by Chad. Transport and labor costs have also increased. Basic commodities such as millet sholw wide variations in price over the country and from season to season, reflect- ing the narrow and imperfect market which is mainly served by barter in a subsistence setting. The difficulties of transport during and after the rainy season accentuate the marketing problem. This year, due to a bad crop in the ITorth and desnite Government price controls, millet prices rose to 50-80 CFA francs per kilo comnpared. with UFAF2 15 i1i warts of

/a Excluding loans to COTONFRA-TI which received the major part of loans and had no overdue payments.

- 36 - the South wiere the crop wras normal. The political unrest in Nigeria may have aggravated the problem; in the past there was a movement of food from Nigeria to Chad in bad years.

135. The Government's price control system was inaugurated in 1963 in an effort to prevent price gouging by wholesalers and retailers and speculation during periods of shortage. Basic commodities such as foodstuffs, petroleum products, pharmaceuticals and services (transport, wTater, power) have prices fixed directly. Profit margins are regulated on other commodities. The Government's control has only been partially effective, mainly in Fort Lamy.

1i&ges

136. The Government of Chad periodically fixes the minimum w^Jages of unskilled workers by Presidential decree. The wages of non-agricultural workers have risen by about 50% since 1963. In urban centers and in North- ern Chad twages are now CFAF 22 per hour, slightly less in other areas. Wlages of agricultural workers have risen about the same rate to CFAF 18.50 over the entire country. Actual wJages paid to both skilled and unslkilled workers are regulated by collective agreements reached in discussions between a committee of employers and the workers' representatives, under the chair- manship of a Labor Office representative. In industry unskilled workers may receive CFAF 22 per hour while senior staff are paid CFAF 100 per hour and higher categories receive CFAF 147 per hour.

137. lTage ranges for Chadians in other sectors are as follows per month in CFAF: LoIw to middle Unskilled administration Direction

Tfrade 3,800 15,800 68,700 Transport 3,800 23,700 - Hotels 3,800 - 46,000

138. Salaries for Chadians in the public administration, the largest employer, are as follows:

IJnskilled CFAF 3,500-3,900 liessenger 9,550 lower administration 12,420 'White collar 49,0COO ,Junior officer 69,0o0

Generous family allowances are provided under a system of labor and social security established in 1966, paid for by contributions from both employers and employees.

- 37 -

F. Public Finance 139. The Central Government is the only public fiscal agency of importance with its own revenues. Itunicipalities have very limited direct receipts of their own and only eight of them have an autonomous municipal budget. Other public autonomous agencies depend mainly upon foreign support for their programs and their budgets are not annexed to that of the Central Government. Information on their programs are fragmentary. This section is mainly concerned with the Central Gov- ernment.

140. After achieving independence in August 1960, Chad began to face the problems wdhich arise w-rith fiscal responsibility. The Govern- ment found itself undertaking expanding activities wAhich were reflected in a rapid growth of expenditure. Although the takeover of complete financial responsibility for current expenditures, particularly for defense, was delayed, the growTth of expenditures on general administration and social services for education and health were rapid and burden- some.

141. Newi agencies were also established. During 1962 the S3apreme Court and *the Planning Commission were established, new prefectures and sub-prefectures were created, the I,ational Guard was reinforced. The transformation of the Chad Credit Society into a Development Bank assisted by an advance from the Caisse Centrale de la Cooperation Eco- nomique of France resulted in increased interest anci amortization charges on the Government. The budget also lost revenues when a new act went into effec-t transferring to local committees all receipts from certain taxes ("patents", "licenses" and "contribution fonciere"). Increased recurring costs also resulted from the previous years t investments, particularly in health, education and social affairs.

142. At the same time, Chad doubled its contribution to the expenses of French Technical Assistance, and increased its participation in the mixed societies such as the "Agence pour la Securite de la Navigation- Aerienne" (ASECNA). The National Assembly budget wAhich had been auto- riomous was incorporated into that of the Central Government. Chad also established its owJn National Treasury separate from that of France, took charge of its Exchange Office and joined the IMF and IBRD. These wrere practical economic and financial steps in establishing Chad as a fully independent country.

143. Some indication of this rapid expansion of activities is seen in the growth of personnel. Figures for the entire period are not available but between 1962 and 1967 the number of Government personnel has about doubled from 7,500 to about 15,000 in 1967. These figures include rough estimates for the army and gendarmerie. lJ

1] Without the army and gendarmerie, the figures are 6,900 and 12,500, still almost a doubling of personnel.

- 38 -

144. Current budget trends since independence show not very well coordinated stair-steps of receipts and expenditures (actuals).

(In millions of CFA Francs)

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

Current receipts 3,902 4,562 4,984 6,129 6,464 7,576 8,905 Current expenditures 3,773 4,603 5,387 5,476 6,337 7,166 9,o56 Current Surplus/ Deficit (-.) 129 -41 -403 653 127 410 -151 Debt service /a 214 259 262 147 172 212 579 Surplus/Deficit (-) -85 -300 -665 506 45 198 -730

a Available data do not provide a breakdown of interest and amortization costs; the expenditure figures include both.

145. Total expenditures grew by 1407-, receipts by 128% at annual rates of 16 and 15", respectively. But the annual increments were such that very wride swJings occurred in budgetary balances, particularly in 1963 and 1966. In 1963 the budget ran a surplus of CFAF 500 million compared with the previous yearts deficit of 600 million. In 1966 the situation was reversed, a deficit of FAF 700 million followed a surplus of 200 million.

146. France had agreed at independence to make up current deficits which might occur during the first twJo years of full independence. j It had announced that current budget support would end in 1962. Thadts positive fiscal policy in 1963 resulted in a shift to a sizeable surplus wzithout assistance. The measuresintroduced included increases of import

1| Total French assistance to the current and investment budgets has been as follows:

(In millions of CFA Francs)

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

Current Budget Support 351 745 714 - - - - Investment Budget - Support - 650 125 700 568 320 370

Total 351 1,395 839 700 568 320 370

- 39 -

and stamp cluties and taxes on petrol, incomes and profits, and insurance policies. Inproved methods of collecting head and animal taxes were introduced to reduce evasion. Added revenues also came from a larger cotton crop and from an increase in the Solidarity Fund. At the same time economy measures were imposed to hold down current expenditures. Unfortunately, this combination of measures was largely offset by a relaxation of fiscal discipline in 1964 and 1965. On the whole, the fiscal performance of the Government was very good between 1961 and 1965. Tax revenues rose from 9.2% to 12.3% of GDP during this period. /

147. In 1966, new; measures wTere talen to increase receipts which grew by 17.5% in spite of a decline in the cotton crop. However current expenditures were allowed to grow even more rapidly, by 26.4p. The result was the largest current deficit since independence. Fortu- nately, the favorable results of previous tax increases had built up a reserve wThich covered a large part of the 1966 deficit. Now it is apparent that the Government is in a very serious bidget squeeze from two sides. Expenditures grew by CFAF 1.4 billion in 1965 (13%) and 2.3 billion in 1966 (26%) excluding debt service. The expansion has occurred mainly in defense and security expenditures which have increased by CFAF 1.5 billion in twJo years, 134% over the 1964 level. This is attributable to the departure of the last contingents of French troops 2/ and the transfer of responsibility for military expenditures from the French to the Chad budget. In addition, the internal climate of unrest and the differences with the Sudan have made necessary an increase of internal policing activities and the patrolling of external borders by the army and gendarmerie. TDhatever the cause, Chad,in 1966, spent about 29% of its current budget (before debt service) on internal defense and security.

148. TlThe other important factor contributing to the budget squeeze has been a short-fall in budgeted receipts in 1966, in the main the receipts from the head tax and the taxes on animals in the politically disaffected Morthern and Eastern areas. Actual receipts in 1966 under these headings were half a billion CFAF below the 1965 level whereas an increase had been budgeted. There is some feeling among livestock experts that taxes on animals had reached "punitiveH levels, and as a result the high rates are bringing negative returns.

Structure of Current Revenues

149. Fiscal receipts provide an unusually high proportion of total revenues in Chad, about 95%. Among tax sources indirect taxes, mainly import and export duties, are the most important and have produced about 70%g of total revenues in recent years. Howrever, for a country at Chad's

1 Total current revenues rose from 10` to 13% during the same period. / Ex.cept for a small unit at the Fort Lamy air base and French military advisors.

- )40 - level of development the share of direct taxes is surprisingly hig-h and the fact that the share of revenues from income taxes almost doubled since independence, reaching 11 in 1966, provides an indication of the fiscal effort being made by the authorities. Considering the rapid growth of revenues, there has been surprisingly little change in their composition. The following table provides a summary view of the percentage distribution of revenues since 1960. 1966 (Revised 1967 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 Estimate) (Budget)

Fiscal Receipts 80.1 95.3 93.6 9429 95.5 95-4 95.4 95.8 Direct taxes 22.8 19L.4 23.9 24.0 23.5 27.0 24.1 27.9 Income taxes ( 6.6)( 4.8)( 9.3)( 8.7)( 8.5)( 9.8) (11.2) (10.9) Other (16.2)(14.6)(al.6)(15.3)(15.0)(17.2) (12.9) (16.9)

Indirect taxes 57.3 75.9 69.7 70.9 72.0 68.4 71.3 67.9 Inport duties (29.4)(46.4)(44.7)(44;9)(46.5)(42-.4) (53.4) (50.4) Export duLties ( 7.6)(12.0)( 8.2)(10.5)(10.8)( 9.6) ( 8.1) ( 7.8) Other (20.2)(17.4)(16.8)(15.5)(14.7)(16.4) ( 9.8) ( 9.7)

Mon-Fiscal Receipts 19.9 4.7 6.4 5.1 4.5 4.6 '4.6 4.2

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

150. The most significant change occurred in 1966 when import duties increased to 53.h% of total revenues. This was due to increased customs duties which rose as a proportion of the value of recorded imports from 27-0 in 1964 to 40;o in 1966. The share of sales taxes declined as did that of export duties. The decline of the latter is attributable to an increased tendency to smuggle out livestock and fish. Cotton exports also declined in 1965/66 due to lower export prices and the drop in output in the 1965/6cc season. The rates of export duties have not changed much and receipts have remained around 9-11$ of exports over the past five years.

151. -hadts membership in the Customs Union has had a direct effect on public finance as well as on trade and development. A Solidarity Fund was established immediately after the Union was formed which provided that the tw-Jo land-locked members, Chad and the Central African Republic would receive the major share of the fund in lieu of the customs duties collected by the transit countries. The duties wJere those on goods whose destination was not declared to the Chad or the Central African Republic, but which were later re-exported to them. 1] However, since the lJ Both Chad and the Central African ;epublic also receive customs duties on goods for -which th3y are the declared destination. These duties have been collected at the port by the autlhorities of the transit country on behalf of Chad and the C.A.R. and later transferred. In the case of ChndJ the transfers occurred after considerable delay, which placed a short term financing burden on the Treasury. Under a recent agreement sTh- offices of the UDEAC accounting office -will collect these duties anT f0Z wrard them montuhly.

- .41 - establishment of the UDEAC the character of the Solidarity Fund has changed; it now provides a net transfer of funds from the other countries to Chad and the C.A.R. because of their comparatively disadvan- tageous economic circumstances. The amounts involved are re-negotiated each year. The net payments to Chad from the Solidarity Fund in recent years have been of the order of CFAF 800 million to 875 million representing 10-12,%' of total current revenues. lJ The UDEAC Convention also provides for a "taxe unique" averaging about 12% on goods traded within the Union and procuded or processed by a member country. 2] This single tax replaces the import duties or other indirect taxes on materials used in manufacturing or on the final product. Structure of Current Expenditures

152. The structure of expenditures has shcwn a substantial shift in emphasis as is shown in the follonfing table and in somewhat more detail in Table 9 of the Appendix. (In percent) Budget 1960 196i 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967

General services 30 32 42 38 39 43 49 49 Economic services 15 12 10 10 10 10 10 9 Social services 24 26 21 24 27 27 23 22 Unallocated 31 29 23 27 24 19 18 20 Loans and advances (net) - 1 4 1 - 1 - -

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

153. The major shift has occurred in general services which includes the most important area of grotwth, national defense and security. The latter has increased its share from 7.7% in 1960 to 29.4- in 1966. Botlh econcmic and social services have maintained relatively -constant shares, the former ranging around 10g and the latter from 22-27%. The relatively low expenditures on economic services is partly due to the low level of maintenance of roads and public buildings. Perhaps more important is the fact that most economically important activities both of an investment and a recurrent nature, are financed outside the budget by foreign aid on a project-to-project basis.

1] Included with import duties in Table 10 of the Statistical Appendix. 2 The "tsxe unique" ranges from 1 to 50% depending upon the commodity. In exceptional circumstances the rate varies from country to country on the same commodity.

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154. The above table does not include expenditures on debt service payments of interest and principal which have ranged from CFAF 170 to 260 million until in 1966 the amount-jumped to CFAF 580 million, still only about 6% of current expenditures. Future trends of debt - service will be discussed in a section to followv on credittyorthiness. Il'unicipal Finance

155. Eight municipalities of wihich Fort Lamy is by far the most important have undertaken groxing expenditures in the four years for which data are available. Their budgets include small amounts of investment, mainly on roads. Current expenditures have groTn from CFAF 356 million in 1964 to 465 million budgeted in 1967. These amounts represent about 5% of Central Government current expenditures and are largely covered by the municipalities' own revenues. About a third of municipal revenues come from municipal excise, income and other taxes, one third from transfers to municipalities by the Central Government and the balance from other municipal income. In 1967, about 20'O' of the consolidated municipal expenditures were earmarked for investment, the greater part being for roads in Fort Lamy financed by a loan of CFAF 105 million from the Caisse Centrale. Generally the municipalities will continue to be limited in their capacity to undertake investment.

G. Investment and Savings

156. Since independence, investment through the Central Government budget has been relatively unimportant and it has depended entirely upon French support of the investment budget plus balances which became available cdue to French support of the current budget. From the following table it is clear that foreign support of the current and investment budgets has exceeded investment expenditures by over CFAF 1 billion. (In millions of CFA Francs)

1960 1961 1962 1963 19614 1965 1966 Total Investment budget 332 503 294 618 661 565 544 3,517 French support 351 1,395 839 700 568 320 390 4,543

This amount has not been sufficient to cover the additional item of debt service during the period which amounted to about CFAF 1.8 billion, including both interest and principal. Nevertheless there has been some internal puiblic-savings before-debt service in four of the last seven years (196C)66). (See Table 8). Sixty percent of public investment through the budget has been concentrated on buildings and 10,' on roads. Productive investment has constituted less than 10$ of the total.

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157. Total investment, public and private, has been estimated in the national accounts for a number of years as follows:

(In billions of CFA Francs)

1961 1962 1963 1965

Total 4.4 5.6 6.0 5.4 Public 3.3 3-7 4.2 4.6 Private 1.1 1.9 1.8 0.8 ,S Public 74 65 69 86 % of GDP 9.3 11.1 11.4 9.2 Investment has been equivalent to 9-11% of GDP over this period with no apparent trend. Private investment, which represents a declining proportion of the total, is made almost entirely from foreign sources or else financed out of earnings of largely foreign oitmed enterprises-. The great bulk of public investment is undertalcen outside the government budget through direct financing of autonomous public agencies or by project financing, in which a project and its administration become virtually another autonomous enterprise.

158. There is some difficulty in reconciling the above investment estimates from the national accounts iwith available data on foreign assistance. The definitions used in the national accounts dif'fer from those for development plans. Much of the development assistance, which we are equating with investment, is really expenditures on staff and current operations with a developmental objective.

159. Information on foreign development assistance to Chad therefore covers the greater part of estimated investment and is indicative of the trend of foreign assistance, as follows: (In billions of CFA Francs)

1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 3.1 3.1 4.4 3.0 2.9 3.2

The major sources of aid have been France and the European Community (FED), mainly in the form of grants. (See Tables 22A and 22B). Public borrowing abroad by Chad has been limited to about 10/ of total aid, mainly from the Caisse Centrale. France has provided about 50%M of ' development assistance (excluding past current budget support) and the FED about 30%. The balance has come mainly from the U.S., Germany, China (Taiw-ran) and the United ]Hation agencies. (See Table 22B).

160o Prior to independence the French agency FIDES had carried out two development Plans, one for the five-year period mid-1948 to mid- 1953, the second for six years, 1953 to mid-1959. The first Plan en- compassed expenditures of CFAF 4.1 billion of which 65'-`0 were on infrastructure. Investment under the second Plan reached CFAF 8.4 billion of wjhich 54Z was on infrastructure including social. overheads and 46% was on the rural economy.

161. The newly independent Government established a planning organization in 1962 made up of a National Planning Council and a Planning Commission which acted as secretariat to the Council and later was given the status of a Iiinistry. The Chairman of the Planning Commission acted also as chairman of a Technical Committee which was composed of representatives from various ministries, from public enterprises and from the private sector. It was the responsibility of the Planning Commission to prepare development plans in collaboration with the Tech- nical Comnittee and a number of sectoral working parties.

162. In February 1964 the Government issued an Interim Program of development for the period 1964/65 whltile-the preparation of Chadts First Five Year Plan 1966-1970 was going on. It was not intended to be a comprehensive investment plan for the country and a substantial part of both public and private sector investment was not covered. The Interim Program was intended to allowJ the Govermnent to pursue development targets of obviously high priority within a rational framework and to carry on a number of basic studies necessary to the preparation of the aive-Year Plan. Among them were a census and demographic study, a review of national accounts, regional studies of the rural economy (livestock, fislhing and agriculture), the development of a road plan and a tourism plan and other sectoral studies. The investment under the Interim Program was almost entirely for the public sector with only a few of the major investments expected in the private sector, as follows:

Investment Targets Actual Investments Implementation

(In millions of CFA Francs) (In percent)

Private sector 1,000 930 93,0

Public sector 13,500 4,354 32.3

14,500 5,284 36.4

163. Although the program was not a comprehensive one it was obviously too ambitious as a timetable of actual expenditures on the projects included in it. llevertheless,-commitments for financing reached 74, of the program total and CFAF 5.5 billion were carried over for the first Five Year Plan.

III. DE=ELOPUETIT PROB=NS, - THE PLAN AND PROSPECTS

A. Problems

164. Chad can hardly be matched by any other African country in its combination of problems. Its location, climate, limited resource base, untrained population, low agricultural productivity and narrow range of exports in the face of declining world cotton prices taken all together make Chad a most formidable case for development.

165. The small and dispersed population and the country's limited output of commercial goods reduce the economic feasibiJity of projects destined to cut transport costs through improvements to the transport infrastructure. High transport costs in turn decrease the returns of projects throughout the economy - for example, the cost per student in essential education projects is probably among the highest in Africa.

166. Improvement in agricultural productivity is a very slow process iwhere farmers are illiterate, superstitious and habituated to primitive techniques. Nomadic grazers are even less wtilling to accept charnge.

167. A different order of problem is the internal political climate of Chad which has not been conducive to the implementation of investment programs in the recent past. Public savings declined appreciably in 1966-for the same reason and because of the poor cotton crop in 1965/66. [More important, political preoccupations have divert-ed the government and population from putting their full effort into the country's economic and social advance.

168, How can Chad cut through this morass of inter-related handi- caps to malce a beginning toward graoth? Four long range priorities emerge. First and fundamental is investment in human resources - education and training. Secondly, investment in agriculture. Concen- tration should be on cotton and livestock, the present principal exports, also on research into newi commercial crops and improved varieties of millet, groundnuts and other subsistence crops. This is essential to the grawth of the production base. Third, investment in a less costly route to the sea and an improved internal road system. This underlies all other programs even though the direct returns may be low. Finally) the resolution of regional political differences. Every effort should be made through economic programs and policies to reduce this obstacle to progress.

B. The First Five Year Plan 169. Chadls Five Year Plan explicitly recognizes the first three of the above priorities. It emphasizes the need to give education at all levels a special orientation to agriculture and it makes clear that agriculture must be developed both as an economy and a society, a way of life for 80-90% of the people. In transport the Plan objective is to complete certain major internal links while studying the railwjay route from Ngaoundere in Cameroon to IIoundou and Fort Archambault. Other general objectives of the Plan are:

(1) to develop industries (a) which are largely based upon local rawi materials, (b) which are not too sensitive to transport costs, (c) which wrill have the support of t'he UDEAC countries, and (d) which are allocated to assure regional equity;

(2) to develop a coherent water policy; and

(3) to begin the modernization of the principal cities, especially Fort Lamy, and to prepare future plans for urban development.

170. The preparation of the First Five Year Plan (1966-70) was delayed because many of the basic studies were not completed in time. It was issued in August 1966 and it presented a program of expenditure totalling CFAF 47 billion. This amount included CFAF 5.5 biLLion carried over from the Interim Program for projects underway or for which cominitments had been made. The Plan is almost exclusively for the public sector; private sector investment is limited to a felw projects representing altogether only about 7% of the Plan total. The Plan places emphasis on agriculture, transport, industry, education and urban development as shoim in the table below:

Sector Billion of CPA Francs Percent

Production 20.4 43.6 Agricultuire 13.3 2 .T Industry,, Powrer, Handicrafts - and Hinirg 6.6 14.1 Tourism 0.5 1.1

Infrastructure 15.9 33.7 Transport 1 7 30.7 Post, Te:Leconmunications & Radio 1.4 2.9

Social Overheads 10.7 22.7 Education and Training 11.2 Health and 1elfare 1.7 3.5 Housing and Urban Development 3.7 7.9

47.0 100.0

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171. In productive terms the Plan projects an increase in average per capita GDP of 4.2% in real terms. The authors of the Plan have recognized that such a target is ambitious and can only be achieved by very great effort. Forty-four percent of investment has been earmarked for the productive sectors in order to achieve this result while agriculture is to receive 28% of total Plan expenditures.

172. As in the case of the Interirmi Program, the Plan is a list of project aims rather than an operational document w-ibh established priorities Spported by well prepared projects. A large part of public sector expenditure is tied to the availability of foreign aid. In turn, grants from abroad can be expected only on a project basis. In such a context the Plan provides a broad program for which financial assistance is sought, but in fact the actual priorities iAll be fixed by the amounts of financing obtained project by project.

173. Before discussing the sectoral programs and targets of the Plan, one general conclusion is clear. The Plan is too ambitious both as a program of expenditures,in the estimates of production and trade to be achieved. The financial estimates and prospects iTll be treated later but in the succeeding paragraphs, sectoral problems and the prospects for produiction and trade wEil1 be ccnsidlered. Although on the whole, the Plan provides a well-balanced and desirable investment program, many of the projects are still unprepared. lianpower requirements will be high since Chad must depend upon technical assistance for adiinistrative supervision to carry aut the technical aspects of most projects and programs. The Plan was issued late in the first year of the Plan period so that its consideration by financing agencies wras delayed. The priority programs of modernizing agriculture, training Chad personnel and improving transpor-t are particularly difficult and time consuming. For these reasons it is felt that the Plan period should be extended by twio years, thraogh 1972. This will make more certain the fulfillment of programs and the achievement of most production and trade targets. Thle Govern- ment is considering a revision of the Plan during 1968. Such a recast- ing of the Plan will be essential if the suggested rephasing is accepted. And for this purpose the planning organization wsill require continued and possibly expanded technical assistance. Additional expertise wrill also be required to speed up the preparation of projects in the form and detail required by the potential foreign assistance agencies. C. Prospects Agoric itre

174. Tne Plan aims at a rapid modernization of agriculture to expand local food supplies, increase farm income and improve the country's trade balance.

175. To achieve these objectives an "Office National de D6veloppe- ment Rhural" (OIADR) has been established with considerable autonomy and, it is hoped, wTith a commercial outlook. Technical assistance is being provided by France to strengthen the organization particularly in the field.

176. The ONDR is an agricultural development organization which combines the functions of an extension service, supplier of inputs and credit agency. It will supply fertilizer, improved seeds, draft animals, tools and implements and plant protection materials. It rill have at its disposal CFAF 510 million for agricultural credit to assist the farmers in the purchase of these items. It is also responsible for the few small cooperativres w:hich are provided for in this Plan period. Although the ONDR is intended to operate extension services in all agricultural areas, in the immediate future, its major extension efforts will be concentrated in certain priority zones where it has begun a credit and supply pro-ram. Its activities are supplemented by the ;'FDT-and the ED?A tihich have comprehensive programs in specific project areas. Certain general agricultural services remain outside the ONDIR, such as the trainiLng of agricultural staff and the keeping of agricultural statistics.

177. The emphasis on increased food production is reflected in the followTing Plan targets:

Production (In thousand tons)

1965 1970 Increase Annual ?ate

1illet and sorghum 005.0 1,148.0 42.6 7. Paddy 25.0 32.4 29.6 5.-4 mLeat 3.8 12.5 228.9 27,0 Corn 12.0 25.0 108.3 15.8 Groundnuts (shell) 140.0 180.0 28.6 5.2 Beans 40-° 50.0 25.0 h.6 Peas 20.0 27.0 35.0 6.2 Manioc 50.O 60.0 20.0 3.7 Potatoes 1.5

178. Special investment in projects to increase food output amounts to CFAF 474. The most important programs are to increase the output of millet (and sorghum) and groundnuts. An increase of 43%' in millet and sorghum output is projected in the Plan, to be achieved by expanding the cropped area by 40,000 hectares and introducing better varieties of treated seed, fertilizer and-improved methods of cultivaticn wTith newr implements and draft animals. The BDPA has undertaken a pilot project Aortheast of Fort Lanry to develop methods for increasing the output of subsistence crops, par-ticularly peanuts and millet. The area chosen wTas probably not the best for a demonstration of this kind bu-t it is still too early to judge whether the results fram this pilot project can be multiplied in other areas. It is doubtful that the use of fertilizer can be economically justified on millet under relatively arid cond;tions.

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179. Unfortunately, the first year of the Plan, 1966, coincided with a disastrous millet crop, perhaps 25,G below the peak production of 1965, and the forecast for 1967 was for another poor crop only slightly better than that for 1966. These declines were caused largely by hot weather and insufficient rains. The Plan target provides for an increase in millet production by 43% over the 1961-1965 average. The added production of millet is to be achieved in part by an increase in area by about 40000 hectares, by the uider use of improved seeds, by the use of fungicides and pesticides to protect seeds and stored grains and by improved techniques. The latter include increased use of animal draft power, better land preparation, increased seeding density. These measures depend in large part upon the reorganized ONDR with its strength- ened staff of technicians from abroad. It is doubtful that the campaign to increase millet production can be effective over more than half the millet growTing area. For this reason and because of the aberrations of the weather, an increase of production of millet by about 205 over tthe- 1960-1966 average appears possible by 1972, i.e., around 900,000 tons. This will provide a small increase in average per capita consumpticn.

180 Prospects are better for the achievement of planned targets on other crops, particularly of wheat, corn and paddy. Project areas are small with relatively high inputs of technical assistance and inX some cases, particularly wiheat, of direct project management by commercial firms. Iiich will also depend upon the internal price trends for millet and groundnuts relative to alternative crops. There does not appear to be any possibility that Chad can compete in the export market for any of these crops. However, added output of groundnuts can provide a modest increase in quantities marketed for processing into oil for local consumption.

181. Production ef'forts should be supplemented by the building up of stocks of basic cereals during good years. Present stocking arrangements are not organized and depend upon the enterprise of incividual farmers. The Governmernt should consider what measures might be taken to develop an organized storage program.

182. Cotton will remain the main industrial crop. Over CFAF 2 billion is earmarked in the Plan to increase raw cotton output by 605 to 155,000 tons. This is to be achieved by a two-pronged effort, on the one hand intensive and on the other extensive.

183. An intensive effort is already being carried on by the CFDT in several priority areas to improve cotton yields through the introduction of draft animals and plows, new seed varieties and through extended use of pesticides, fertilizer, and modern techniques generally. Timely seeding and spraying of cotton is of crucial importance to cotton output. Thus far the CFDT program has gone wrell. In 1966/6'7 the Plan target of 20,000 hectares was met with encouraging results. Yields in the project area averaged 1,000 kg. per hectare compared with less than 300 kg under traditional methods. In overall terms the 1966/67 crop

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has sligntly exceeded the target of 122,500 tons for seed cotton. The success of the CFDT program has resulted in an increase in their targct area from L40,000 to 50,000 hectares by 1969/70.

184. The extensive program falls under the OMDR. It is aimed at expanding the total area in cotton by 40,000 hectares while raising yields in the traditional zones from 300 to 400 lxgs. per hectare by 1969/70. The effort to ex-pand cotton growing acreage should not be pushed into areas where cotton gives marginal returns as had occurred in the past. This only endangers the local food supply.

185. It appears technically feasible for Chad to achieve an increase in raw cotton output reaching 155,000 tons by 1972. However, a large output requiring price support at the present level would put a severe strain on t;he national budget. It is true that some reductions in the cost of ginning and transport can be expected as a result of COTONFRAN's investment in new gins and the FED supported road program, but world cotton prices are expected to drop further by 1970, by perhaps 10%0 or more for Chad's medium qualit,y cotton (1" middling). If the areas planted to the new cotton varieties can be expanded rapidly, Chad's position would be improved since world prices for 1-1/16" and longer varieties of cotton are not expected to suffer the same price declines. One other alternative is to reduce the price guaranteed to farmers as yields increase so that the percent-age increase in the overall income is somewhat less than the increase in yield. This should be the measure of last resort, since it could discourage the adoption of methods intended to gain further increases in yields. Instead some means should be found to extend the program of external assistance to cotton production until Chad can make further productivity gains and cotton can become fully competitive in the world market. That expedient of further aid is necessary if Govern- ment revenues from the present export duty are not to decline. Any reduction in revenues in the years immediately ahead would diminish public savings available for the development plan, a result which the Government wishes to avoid.

186. Other potential industrial crops now undergoing field trials are sugar cane and tobacco. SIAN,a Frencb company which produces sugar in Congo (13),is undertaking the sugar experiment and SIAT, a French tobacco firm, also established in Congo (b), is in charge of the tobacco trials. The Plan includes about CFAF 100 million for these activities.

187. Further agricultural programs have been or are to be organized under the Plan on a regional basis with a total allocation of CFAF 2.8 billion. Among these, one of the most promising is in the Lake Chad region where FAO, FED, FAC and UNESCO are engaged on projects of research, polder development and irrigation, crop diversification and productivity. The most important crops here will be wheat, millet, corn, potatoes, sugar cane, fruits and vegetables. The Plan target is to expand the poldered areas to 15,000 hectares and put it under intensive cultivation by 1970. Cotton should also be tested under irrigated conditions in this area.

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188. Other regional projects are (a) flood control of about 30,000 square kilometers combined with a program of intens:ified agriculture in the liandoul area, (b) integrated cropping and livestock raising in ivIoyen- Chari, (c) date palm cultivation in Largeau, (d) general agricultural productivity in the Ouaddai area, and (e) rice production in Casier A near Bongor.

189. Finally, in the perspective of broad community rural development a village water supply program is included in agriculture, costing C1AF 2.7 billion over the five year period. A part of the total cost of this will be furnished by local bodies. The project -will meet both human and some livestock needs and is given high priority from the point of view of both productivity and public health.

Fishing

190. The Plan provides CFAF l45 million for the moderrnzation of fishing techniques, for fish marketing facilities and a study of the possibility of a fish processing industry. The potential for an increased catch from Lake Chad through better techniques is most important and the project has already been financed in large part. Improvement of fishing in the Logone and Chari rivers will also receive attention. Fish production which has been estimated at about 100,000 tons per year is to be expanded by 10%. This appears a reasonable target. 29,000 tons of dried fish are to be processed.

Forestry

191. The only program of importance is to increase output of gum arabic for export.Qi The Plan target is to increase output from existing trees from 800 tons in 1965 to 2,000 tons in 1970 valued at about CFAF 160 million. In addition, acacia plantations will be expanded by 3,000 hectares to assure an additional 600 tons of output annually by 1975. High returns can be expected from the planned investment of CFAF 132 million in this project. It is already underway with FED providing 70% of project costs.

Livestock

192. The livestock program has two separate parts: the first to benefit the traditional extensive nomadic grazing areas of the North and East, the second to develop mixed farming enterprises of cropping with multipurpose livestock in the South.

193. Operations on the extensive livestock zones will be aimed at increasing livestock herds and expanding offtake. The Plan states that many areas of good pasture are neglected only because there are no water points. The extension of livestock areas, therefore, depends greatly upon the provision of wells in under-grazed areas to relieve over-grazing elsewhere and to raise nutritional levels. Expanded animal protection and veterinary programs will also be provided. A special development project adjacent to a Government ranch will study the best methods of

1J Gum arabic is produced from a type of acacia tree and used i-n the manufacture of pharmaceuticals, candy, soups and soluble coffee.

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improving livestock and increasing meat production while working with local herdsmen. An improvement of marketing facilities will include the establishment of a staging ranch near Fort Lamy and water points along cattle routes.

194. The program for rmixed livestock farming enterprises will concentrate on a few project areas where an overall effort is being made to expand the use of draft animals in conjunction with the use of new implements, fertilizer, seeds and improved methods generally.J A hoped-for secondary effect will be an increase in meat and milk production on these farms to supplement the diets of the local population.

195. Both livestock programs have a common interest in animal protection which will be particularly important in the South. Tsetse re- sistant crossbreeds have been and will be distributed but animal health programs will remain essential. The program is linked with the efforts to increase the industrial exploitation of animals for meat, hides, skins, and by-products. Total Plan expenditures amount to CFAF 3.5 billion as follows:

CFAF millions

Livestock water supply 1,651 Animal protection 935 Studies, Research and Development Center 598 Marketing and staging ranch 237 Industrial exploitation 77 Poultry development

3,502

196. The exoected results are not completely spelled out in the Plan but some important forecasts are made. The cattle population is expected to rise about 1.5% per year from about L million head in 1965 to 4.31 million in 1970.2/ At the sane time it is expected that annual offtake will increase from 9% to 9.5%. Available beef supplies would increase from 51,550 tons to 60,680 tons valued at about CFAF 3.5 billion. Exports in 1965 were estimated at 30,300 tons (carcass weight) including exports on the hoof. After allowing for a small increase in per capita domestic consumption, total exports of about 36,580 tons will be possible by 1972. At current prices cattle exports would be valued at about CFAF 2.5 billion. The goat and sheep population is projected to increase from 4 million to h.65 million, or about 15%, and offtake is expected to rermain at the present level of 20%. The following targets have been set for hides and skins production:

/ The most important being those of the CFDT in cotton areas and the BDPA in subsistence zones. j Sirce the Plan wars w-ritten a revised estimate of cattle population indicates that in 1966 it was 4.5 million, well above the Plan target. The percentage increase in the Plan can be retained as a basis for an estimate of growth. This would bring cattle herds to abcut 4.8 million by *970.

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Percent 1965 1970 Increase (thousands)

Hides (slaughterhouse production) 35 60 71.b Skins (slaughterhouse production) 15 60 300.0 Hides (local production) 165 180 9.0 Skins (local production) 980 1,000 2.0

197. On the whole the projections for the livestock sector can be achieved by 1972. Flture demand for meat, both internal and external, is expected to continue to expand with a promise of some improvement in prices. The European market has not opened to Chad's meat because of quarantine restrictions on meat from possibly infected areas. If Chad can improve animal health standards as well as marketing channels and transport facilities, long-run prospects are good for new outlets for fresh meat. In the short-run canned meat is expected to have a more hopeful future.

Industry, Mining and Tourism

198. Planned expenditure in industry totals about CFAF 5.5 billion, including CFAF 500 million for tourism and small allocations for handicrafts ancd mining. The major sums are earmarked for investment in three new industries: a textile mill, a sugar refinery and a complex to process livestock products.

199. The textile mill, which is now operating, has some very interesting financial features and provides an important-example of regional cooperaticin. It was established by the same French-German group which built a textile plant in Cameroon. The Chad Goverrment, in addition to holdings of 15% in its own plant, also holds 15% of the capital of the Cameroon plant while the Cameroon Government has the same arrangement vis-a-vis the Chad mi)l. The two textile plants are planned to complement each other's output.!/

200. The sugar refinery appears at this point to be a prenature item in the Plan's industrial investment program. Its establishment must await the results of sugar trials which, even if positive, would delay the beginning of operations until some time after 1970 and possibly after 1972. The allocation of the plan for the sugar refinery, including the power plant, is 2.7 billion, but there are ancillary investments for building a new "sugar to'wn" and for urban services which bring the total to CFAF 3.2 billion. This amount might more suitably be set aside as a con- tingency reserve for new projects of high priority wihich may become viable before the sugar refinery.

2/ However, both will be fully integrated mills including printing, dyeing and finishing facilities. . q 201. The project to process livestock products is an ambitious one for Chad. A complex is envisaged to include meat canning, tin manufacture, leather tanning and shoe production. Initial costs projected in the Plan were for CFAF h50 million but this figure has now been revised upward to CFAF 725 million. The meat canning and tins making plant is already established; however, if the Government's expectation are to be fulfilled, studies of both markets and sources of supply should be undertaken without delay.

202. Minor new industries with financing already assured include a cotton oil mill, a groundnut oil mill, a soap factory, marble,tile and brick plants.

203. Existing enterprises which will be expanded include the brewing, cotton ginning, flour nrilling and sugar processing industries, all in the private sector. Small expenditures will be made on handicraft studies, export promnotion and artisanal centers.

20b. lMining investment is limited to further prospecting for gold near Iriba, field explorations for a variety of minor non-metallic minerals (argile, kaolin, talc, sand for glass, and calcaire for lime) and the study of natron resources and their potential for industrial and cornmerical exploitation.

205. Tourism is to receive an allocation of CFAF 530 million, nine tenths of which will be used for an addition of 140 rooms to the total capacity of 305 rooms in the country. The Hotel La Tchadienne in Fort Lamy is already completed, providing 10L rooms of international standard. Mlinor allocations are made for the improvement of parks and game pre- serves, tourist transport and promotion. Chad has some interesting tourist attractions, although they are not easily accessible, and the Government hopes to attract 6,ooo visitors a year by 1970. Promotion will necessarily be aimed at the wealthy tourist with special interests in local folklore, hunting, or the photography of game. Chad's wild animal resources are quite unusual and remain in a bruly untouched state. Tourist development iTll have to depend on organized tours which are integrated with visits to neighboring countries, and East Africa.

Power

206. The Plan's objective for power output is to meet all industrial demands including the new complex at Fort Archambault, expanded private electrical services to Fort Lamy, and the electrification of a number of smaller towns. In addition, studies and explorations must be undertaken for new sources of energy which are less costly than the present small, dispersed units.

207. The program costs are distributed as follows:

Million CFAF

Industrial 526 Fort Archambault 306 Sugar factory 220

Non-Industrial 761 Fort Lamy 220 Small municipalities 541

Studies 436

Total 1,723

208. Financing is assured for the projects at Fort Archambault in connection with the industrial complex and at Fort Lary by a loan from the Caisse Centrale. The power requirement for the sugar factory can be postponed for the present time. Studies of the hydre potential of the Gauthiot Falls and the thermal potential of hot springs in the Tibesti region are to be undertaken and exploration for gas will be initiated at Bol and Doba.

209. Preliminary indications are that the small municipal power :installations will operate at a loSS. Trained Chadians are not available -to man the stations, which will make foreign staff necessary. Costs wfill also be high because the supply of gas oil is expensive and relatively large stocks must be held to carry over the rainy season when roads are closed. The absence of industry or artisanal users wTill limit demand.

Transport

210. Transport investment totals almost CFAF 14.5 billion, the greater part for road construction. About CFAF 1.7 billion of projects were carried over from the Interim Program and the projects are completed or well under way. CFAF 4.4 billion has been earmarked for new asphalted roads, the most important of which is the Fort Lany-Fort Archambault link via Guelendeng costing CFAF 3.7 billion. A section from Fort Lam2r to Guenlendeng has already been completed at Chadts expense but completion of the road has been postponed due to its relatively low priority and for lack of financing. This appears to be a wfise decision. Concentration :is to be focused on improving major earth road links to raise them above flooding levels and to improve drainage and provide bridges.

211. Allocations for river ports and channels are small, CFAF 538 million. Another CFAF 880 million is earmarked for improvement of airports and air transport infrastructure. Finally, CFAF 485 million has been earmarked for railway studies connected with the extension of the Trans- Cameroon railway to Moundou and Fbrt Archambault. In the light of recent discussions these studies should be expanded to include a road alternative to the railway. Some experts feel that the economic justification for a -oad wiould be easier to establish than for a railway. An expansion of the

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economic and technical studies, which is recommended, would entail an additional allocation of funds. However, in general terms, if financing for the Plan falls short of the objective, savings of up to 20/ of the transport allocation would be possible without eliminating the economical] important projects.

Post and Telecommunication

212. Telecommunications investment amounting to CFAF 685 million will be directed toward improving internal communications in the south of Chad, and international links between Chad and Cameroon and the Central African Republic. Preference is being given to a hertzian network. Connections between Fort Lamy and Fort Archambault wfill be doubled to include telephone, telegraph and telex links. Telephone installations will also increase rapidly in major towns. Investment in the postal system is limited to CFAF 90 million. Education

213. The primary school program has been allocated almost CFAF 2 billion, or 40% of total planned educational expenditures. This includes the priority program of teacher training. The system is to be expanded to bring 39% of children of school-going age into primary school by 1970, compared with about 20% in 1966. The pedagogic focus is on developing a primary system which is appropriate to Chad t s needs and conditions. This calls for an orientation toward education in agriculture, livestock production and personal hygiene. The emphasis on teacher training is necessary to reverse the decline in the quality of instruction and education&l administration.

214. In secondary education the need is to train the very scarce middle level staff for every type of enterprise and provide a base for the expansion of higher education. Emphasis is to center on improving the quality of teaching while increasing the capacity of the schools by 90 classes in the first cycle and 30 classes in the second cycle. The additional professors (125) will be supplied largely by technical assistance programs. Total Plan investments in secondary education are to be CFAF 1.1 billion.

215. Technical education will go forward in three main directions, the most important of which relates to agriculture--notably the training of staff for the agricultural extension service, various technical services and the agJricultural administration. Farmers and rural wvorkers (artisans ruraux) will be trained in short courses at local centers. Expansion of the present agricultural school and the creation of a new one is projected to increase the number of middle level technicians. Higher engineering training will take place abroad at regional universities already established at Yaounde and Abidjan. Livestock workers will be trained as veterinary assistants specializing in the protection of livestock health. In this category, the administration should assure that other aspects of livestock production, especially marketing, feeding and breeding are not neglected. Total expenditures on training in agriculture are projected at CFAF 913 million.

216. The second direction of investment in technical education will lead to the service of industry and commerce. A technical high school and college will be built and the commercial high school in Fort Lamy will be expanded at a total cost of CFAF 450 million.

217. Finally, a wide variety of technical personnel will be t-rained in already existing institutions in Chad, other African countries or France. These include "'ma1tres polyvalents", hospital "infirmiers", aviation mechanics, telecommunication specialists, postal workers and many others.

218. The education program also includes an adult education plan and a youth sports program.

219. Centers for educational planning, documentation and pedological research have already been established with foreign cooperation and look toward the long term needs of education in Chad.

220. On the whole the investment program for education, totaling CFAF 5.1 billion, seems justified and well balanced. One qualification is necessary. The opening of new classes to double the primary scholar- ization rate should be phased with the out-turn of teachers. This does not appear to have been planned, and it may necessitate a revision downward of the proposed school building program. There may also be possibilities of combining certain institutions with savings in both capital and recurring costs.

Urban Housing and Development

221. Urban housing and development projects have been allocated CFAF 2.9 billion in the Plan. The programs include cadastral surveys, city planning as well as the provision of roads, water, sewerage, drainage street lights, markets and other amenities for urban settlement. The Plan also supports studies of building materials and metlhods and designing of model schools, dispensaries, administration centers and public housing to reduce costs. Fort Lamy received almost CFAF 1 billion of the total allocation. Over CFAF 400 million is earmarked for an urban community attached to the sugar refinery which can be dropped for the Five Year Plan period. The balance is mainly for Fort Archambault, Moundou, Ab4che, and for ten new municipal water systems in smaller toTns.

222. Out of the total of about CFAF 3 billion only CFAF 370 million of financing has been found from foreign aid agencies. This is an indication of the relatively low priority of many of the projects in this sector. Urban development projects which are necessary to the establishment of new industries or for water supply and sewierage in rapidly growing urban centers have the highest priority. Each project should be Justified on its owTn merits. It is doubtful that many of these projects can cover costs through receipts for the services offered or from charges for Government improvement of urban property. In general productive projects which will increase the tax base should be emphasized rather than further infrastructure which Twill only increase the fiscal demands upon Government for main- tellance and supervisory staff.

Health

223. The plan for health will cost C'AF 1.5 billion, of which onie-third is financed by the FED and carried over from the Interim Program. Over two-thirds of Plan expenditure is aimed at building additional hospitals and maternity centers, even though existing institutions cannot be adequately staffed. Some attention is being given to training sanitary assistants, nurses and hospital techlicians but it is very doubtful that staff will be available for the new institutions in the numbers required. If,after careful review, this is found to be the case, a rephasing of expenditures on institutions should be considered.

224. A more fundamental question is the orientation of the health program. By concentrating on the building of hospit;als in Fort Lamy and a few other centers, it fails to give adequate importance to preventive health programs. The low health level of the Chad population has been the major damping influence on population growth. It may also be one of the reasons for the low productivity of the population. The prevalence of malaria, intestinal parasites, bilharzia and other diseases are a serious drain on the energies of the working population. The debilitating effects of disease also have their psychological side effects; the farmer is not interested in new techniques of cultivation or the consistent effort which would make it possible for him to expand the cultivated area of his farm if he is ill. This may explain in part the difficulties of interesting people in rice cultivation in the Casier A project or in expanding wheat production on the polders of Lake Chad.

225. Investment in health education in rural areas is much too limited under the Plan, for it can play an important part in changing social attitudes, undenmining superstitions and in helping to bring backward people into the modern world. Improvements in rural health standards -will be facilitated by the substantial investment provided in the Plan for village water supplies, but there does not appear to be any comprehensive health campaign to control malaria, intestinal, venereal, and other endemic diseases. Such programs would be particularly important where investments are being made to increase agricultural and livestock production. There are periods when agricultural labor is insufficient to harvest crops, especially cotton. There are also important programs to expand the area cultivated per farmer by investment in improved tools and draft animals which require vigorous healthy cultivators. These production programs would all benefit from full integration with public health measures in the priority zones.

226. The Government should reconsider the health program by setting up projects of an educational and preventive nature in priority areas. Such a change in emphasis would have important implications for the training of staff and for future technical assistance grants in this field.

D. Implications for Production and Trade

227. The First Five Year Plan estimated that per capita GDP at constant prices would grow by 4.2% per year and that exports would cover an increasing share of imports, reaching 78% by 1970. Both of these objectives appear optimistic in the light of the preceding discussion of sectoral prospects. Although comprehensive data are not available the fall in millet production and the poor 1965/66 cotton crop almost certainly caused a decline of per capita GDP in 1966. In 1967 GDP may recover to the 1965 level or slightly above due largely to the record cotton crop, some increase in livestock production and the growth of government expenditures, along with their multiplier effects on the economy as a whole. But the second consecutive poor millet crop will prevent 1967 from having been a year of exceptional growth for Chad.

228. Looking at the period 1966 to 1972, GDP at constant prices may be expected to grow at an annual rate of from 3 to 3.5%. Per capita income over the period would show an average growth ranging from 1.3 to 1.8%. These levels of growth are substantially below the Plan targets, but for a country in Chadts position they appear realistic.

229. Exports of goods and services are expected to growr by about 2.8% per year during the extended Plan period 1966-1972, while the growth of imports is held to 2%. Comparable plan targets were 5.2% and 2.1% respectively over the five year period. Exports are expected to grow from CFAF 9,3 billion in 1965 to CFAF 11.3 billion by 1972, somewhat below the Plan target to achieve exports of CFAF 12 billion by 1970.

230. The Plan recommended restraint on the growth of imports. Emphasis is to be given to development imports and to efforts to replace imports of consmner goods by local production. The new textile plmnt, shoe factory, and oil mills are most important from this point of view. Expanded production of wheat, corn and rice will also help provide substitutes for imports. Finally, a further effort is to be made to restrain imports of luxury goods through increased import duties and taxes. All of these measures will be necessary to keep imports within the target set. Even so, the de°icit on merchandise and services account will remain about the same in 1972 as it was in 1965, but will be CFAF 2 billion below the record deficit of 1966. During that year, the first year of the Plan, the policy of restraining imports was not followed; they grew by over 5% instead of the planned 2.1%.

231. The above targets provide that exports will cover 71%' of imports by 1972 compared with 67% in 1965 and 57% in 1966. Howqever, the success of the Plan, even on a stretched out basis, will be jeop- ardized urless the economic policies, which are an integral part of the plan, are faithfully carried out by the Government. This is true not only in trade policy but throughout the range of policies affecting development.

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IV. FINANCIAL PROSPECTS AMD CREDI2IWORTINESS

A. Requirement for External Finance

232. Chadls requirements for external assistance are for three main purposes, to finance the Plan, to amortize the public debt andl to support cotton production.

Cotton Sipport

233. The expectation had been that cotton production in Chad would be fully competitive in the world market after the 1967/68 season, On this basis the FED, as indicated earlier, had been providing support for the cotton production under a four year program. The financial aid was intended to cover the difference between the world price and Chadts cost of production, including the subsidy to the farmer. The program was phased to provide reduced aid each year. However, the 1966/67 record crop resulted in a requirement of CFAF 688 miUjon in aid compared with CFAF 663 in 1965/66 for a much smaller crop.V

234. It appears now that, as cotton output increases under the Plan program, the net cost to Government of the cotton subsidy to farmers will continue at a substantial level for some time beyond the end of the present FWD program. It will take several years to make Chad cotton competitive, / to shift to new varieties, increase prodluctivity and to reduce unit costs of ginning, handling and transport while world prices decline for varieties making up the greater part of Chadfs present output.

235. During this period of adjustment it is apparent that without external assistance the cost to Government of subsidies to the cotton producer would consume a large part of the revenues the Government has been accustomed to receive from export duties. The capacity of Govern- ment to contribute to the investment program would be seriously curtailed and in the short run deficits on current account would probably result.

236. In some quarters of Government there may be a hope that the Government can increase its total returns from cotton after COTONFRANIs contract expires in 1970. COTONFRANIs rate of return on capital has averaged about 12.5% over the last six years and orly slightly less on capital p:lus reserves. (See Table 32D). However, its total estimated net profit was only 2% of total cotton sales (FOB) and less than one- fourth the subsidy for the 1966/67 crop. Any reduction of the profit level would provide very limited additional resources to the Government.

237. In this very difficult situation, where there is uncertainty about the best solution to the cotton problem, it is suggested that the Government obtain qualified and independent technical assistance to undertake a study with the following objectives:

/ The 1965 figure includes a small payment to cover COTOINFRANIs operating losses. Unit costs of the support were substantially reduced. 2/ Without eliminating the export duty.

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a) to analyze COTONFRMPNts operations and to determine what steps could be taken by the company or by the Government to reduce costs and to make Chad cotton fuully competitive in the world market,

b) to assist the Government in negotiating a new contract with COTONFRAN or another management agency well before the expiration of the COTONFRAN contract in 1970.

c) to estimate the amount and phasing of foreign aid requirements to support the cotton program until it becomes fully competitive.

238. In the interim, the Government -will have no alternative but to seek additional assistance for cotton on an ad hoc basis.

The First Five Year Plan

239. The Plan proposed total expenditures of CFAF 47 billion phased over five years as follows:

(in CFAF billion)

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970

6.6 10.1 11.8 10.3 8.2

In extending the period through 1972, a rephasing should be undertaken to achieve a more regular growth of expenditures without any expectation of a decline in total investment in the late years of the Plan. Growth might rise from around CFAF 6 billion to something over CFAF 7 billion in the last years of the Plan.

240. The Plan includes CFAF 2.2 billion of investment in the private sector which is virtually assured by projects completed, underway or committed. The major share of expenditures, CFAF 44.8 billion, remairs to be financed through the public sector. Within this amount CFAF 2.7 billion are recurrent costs for ongoing development projects which have been included in the Plan and will be covered by the recurrent budget without an increase in past levels of expenditure. Investment in labor and kind is expected to provide CFAF 1 billion for local comnunity development projects not adapted to financing from abroad. Tllis leaves projects in the public sector costing CFAF 41.1 billion which nre suitable for ioreign assistance. Tho Plan has forecast aggregate budget surpluses of the Central Government at CFArF 4.4 billion and domestic borrowing of CFAF 1.4 billion, leaving CFAF 35.3 billion to be covered by foreign public assistance. Chadts prospects for achieving the above level of budget surpluses and ex-ternal aid are of most immediate concern since the small target of domestic borrowing appears realistic.

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Central Government Investment

241. In 1966, the first year of the Plan, an investment budget of CFAF 580 was undertaken but not from a surp]us on current account. The current account before debt service was in deficit by CFAF 151 million. The major part of the investment budget was covered by a Frenchi subsidy and the balance from drawings on reserves and deficit financing.

242. The currenti budget for 1967 was prepared before the extent of the 1966 budget deficit was known. The budget estimated revenues at CEAF 9.9 billion and expenditures on current account (includinrg debt service of 9.8 billion. However, the realities of the situation were more apparent by April 1967. Current revenues were running far below estimates due in part to delays in remittances of certain taxes but also duLe to the continuing difficulties in collecting the tax unique and tax on animals. As a result the Governiment issued a tsmpo- rary ban on all expenditures except salaries. Niaintenance and replace- ment works, even expenditures on stationery, were stopped. No investment budget had been prepared due to the uncertainties of' financing.

243. The Government approached the French Government for current budget as well as investment budget support. The latest indications are that support from France will be limited to CFAF 436 millicn for investment and that the investment budget will be less than that of 1966. '.And although current expenditures wrere cut 'bnck a substantial deficit is still expected for 1967. it is also expected that the severe budget squeeze will continue in 1968.

244. Trhis turn of affairs is disappointing after the excellent record made by the Government in the first five years of independence. As indicated earlier revenues have grown by an average of 155 per year from 196o to 1966. Prom 1961-65 current revenues as a share of GDP rose from 10 to 13 percent while the incremental tax ratio to GDP was 25%. ]xcpenditures grew at about the same rate but remained below receipts from 1963 through 1965, to provide surpluses on current account.

245. The major reason for the changed outlook can be attributed to two factors. The first was the rapid increase of expenditures on defense and security, mainly directed toward the internal political situation which was also causing a decline in revenues. These developments, along with the poor cotton crop in 1965/66 were responsible for the 1966 deficit. However, the possibility of a deficit for 1967 cannot be ruled out, despite the meaaures to cut expenditures. This will be mainly attributable to the continuing internal unrest. The direct and indirect effects of the record cotton crop have improved the situation somewJhat but in one sense has increased the Government s financial problems as discussed above. Any great improvement in the budget position isill depend upon a resolution of the internal political problems so that the escalation of defense and security expenditures can be stopped or, if possible, reduced.

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246. The Plan forecast annual growth of current revenues by 11% per year whilea the growth of non-investment expenditures, including interest and capital payments on external public debt, were to be held to 9% per year. In the light of the 1966 experience and 1967 indications, the main problem lies on the expenditure side. After the large increase of expenditures in 1966 the recent retrenchment in the 1967 budget is expected to hold the growth of expenditures to about 7% at current prices.

247. From 1968 through 1972 it is feasible for the Government to continue to restrain the growth of expenditures to 6 to 8 percent, excluding capital repayments of external debt, while maintaining a rate of 10 to 12 percent in the growth of revenues. This spread of 4 to 6% can provide public savings through the Central Government budget ranging from approximately CFAF 5 to 8.6 billion. Under relatively conservative assumptions budget surpluses can be expected to aggregate about CFAF 6 billion during the 5 year period. After capital repayments of CFAF 3 billio S on current debt, a net surplus of CFAF 3 billion wrill remain for financing public sector projects compared with the assumption in the Plan of CFAF 4.4 billion. It is evident that even this level of savings, though considered reasonable by the mission, will not be achieved without the determined effort of the Government.

External Public Assistance

248. The Plants forecast of Chadts requirements for foreign public assistance, come to a total of CFAF 35.3 billion. In the light of the preceding paragraphs, this estimate is low; the mission estimate is CFAF 36.7 billion if the planned level of expenditures is to be ful.- filled. This is equivalerit to about 89% of the capital cost of public projects after deducting recurrent expenditures and labor in kind from the public sector plan. Average actual receipts and expenditures of aid must rise to about CFAF 5.2 billion per year over the seven-year period, compared with an average of about CFAF 3.3 billion which had been achieved in the period 1961 to 1966. (See Table 22b).

249. In the past France has been the most important source of external aid of all kinds; current and investment budget support, public investment outside the budget and technical assistance. Total commitments of aid through the French Ilinistry of Cooperation (FAC) have amounted to about CFAF 9 billion since Chadts independence. There has also been assistance outside FAC; for example, current budget support is received directly from the French Treasury. In 1966 total expenditures of French aid for development projects and programs was estimated at CFAF 1.8 billion. The European Economic Community through the kud for Economic Development (FED) provided CFAF 726 million of development aid and the balance of about CFAF 700 million came from a wide range of other donors of which the most important were the United States, Germany, China (Formosa) and the UN agencies. Since independence, 1963 was the year of highest expenditure of foreign aid on development; CFAF 4.4 billion was expended in that year.

1 Including 1967 debt repayment but excluding any new conventional borrowing which would require repayment before the end of 1972.

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250, For the future the annual level of development aid irom France is not expected to increase substantially. The future of the FED assistance depends upon the Common IMarket decision for a Third FED Program. Aid from the smaller donors is not expected to increase. United States programs in Africa will be directed mainly toward regional projects. This does not rule out effective additional aid to Chad but there may be an hiatus in the shift from national to regional projects. The plan has forecast financing of about CFAF 2.3 billion from the World Bank Group, which has several projects under consideration. Other new sources of aid were being contacted. Wlith the extension of the Plan to 1972 the Government may expect at least CFAF 3.0 billion in assistance from new sources, including the World Bank Group. Commitments already received include CFAF 5.5 billion for projects carried over from the Interim Program and CFAF 4.6 billion for newT Plan projects. Projec-Gs costing CFAF 9.2 billion were under discussion with foreign assistance agencies at the time of the missionts visit. The Government was confident that these projects would also receive firm commitments which, if achieved, would bring total commitments to CFAF 19.3 billion.

251. On the whole it appears that Chad can reasonably expect foreign assistance from past sources to continue at about recent magnitudes unless there are unexpected changes in aid policy. The past level of aid expenditures, CFhF 3.3 billion per year, extended over seven years would aggregate approximately CFAF 23 billion. Aid from new sources could bring the total to CFAF 26 billion of financing which is now foreseen to provide a fairly firm basis for planning.

252. A resource gap of about CFAF 10.7 billion will remaia on an expenditure basis. There are several ways in wrhich the Government can attempt to fill the gap. One would be to increase the rate of expenditures on projects already underway or on which commitments are due. The speedirg up of the rate of expenditure on projects must be accompanied by maximum efforts to see that project objectives are fulfilled and that the benefits to the economy become apparent so that further commitments can be justified from present suppliers of aid. Ancillary to this wiould be an energetic effort to prepare projects in the form and detail required by foreign aid agencies wJith adequate technical and economic justifications. Projects now talce mrach too long to reach the stage of implementation. Projects might also be prepared to include recurring costs which wjould provide an opportunity for Chadts contribution from budget surpluses to be increased.

253. The second approach would be to range more widely for new sources of aid; possibly Kuwait, Yugoslavia and other Earopean countries.

254. Finally, the Government could, in theory at least, make a greater effort to increase public savings. In the light of the difficulties facing the Government which have been described above, this does not appear to be too hopeful. The Government alone can decide to what extent it can contribute to any resource gap which may arise. Alternatively the resource gap can be erased, not met, by reducing Plan expenditures. Some indications have already been given regarding areas of lower priority. In the Plan the cost of the sugar factory has been earmarked for the public sector. If sugar

- 65 - becomes an economically viable crop, it is suggested that public sector expenditure be replaced by private capital and external borrowiing which would be acdditive to rather than a substitute for public financing already envisaged.

Technical Assistance

255. The financial requirements of the Plan include provision for inputs of technical assistance which will be necessary to implement the Plan0 Technical and management staff will be needed for most programs and projects from middle to top level. In many projects lower level skilled workmen wi:Ll also be essential at least for an interim period. Chad already has a large number of technical and managerial staff from abroad, most of which have been effectively used within government and public agencies. The provision for additional staff should be worked out care- fully along with a variety of in-service and other training programs to assure that Chadians will gain the skills necessary to replace foreigners within a reasonable period.

B. Creditworthiness

256. Chadts outstanding external public debt amounted to CFAF 6 billion at the end of 1966. This amount included debt guaranteed by the Government on behalf of public autonomous agencies such as the Development Bank. In addition loans of GFAF 1.5 billion are in the process of being formalized; they have been agreed in principle but formal credit documents have not been completed. Debt service in 1967 on the external debt actually contracted will amotnt to 12 percent of 1966 exports of goods and services but will fall to 5 percent of estimated exports in 1968 and 3.4 percent in in 1972. If debt service on the agreed but unsigned loans is included, the ratios would rise only slightly to 6 percent of expected exports of goods and services in 1968, declining to 4.9% in 1972 and 3.6 percent in 1975.

257. The moderate debt service ratio from 1968 onward is largely due to the large proportion of grants in total aid and the relatively liberal credit terms on loans from France, which make up the greater part of Chadts debt. Interest has ranged from zero to six percent but most credits have been at 2-1/2 percent, with repayment periods of from 3 to 39 years.

258. For some countries the present and prospective level of debt service on current debt might be considered sufficiently low to allow some future borrowing on conventional terms. In the case of Chad the conventional ratio does not provide the final word in judging creditworthiness. From the viewpoint of capacity to meet the foreign exchange requirements of debt service, Chadts creditworthiness and that of other members of regional customs and banking unions within the franc zone lie in the drawing rights and conversion privileges guaranteed by France. This will remain true as long as the system continues.

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259. However, if we consider Chadts own prospects for some years to come its creditworthiness for conventional debt is very limited. The major restraint is the internal fiscal situation, which cannot be expected to improve very rapidly. The assumed growth of revenue and expenditures proposed by the mission as a reasonable illustrative target will provide only limited budget surpluses for investment. This level will be reduced unless cotton support continues from abroad and could be wiped out altogether if additional debt service on new conventional debt should arise during the extended Plan period. The only exception which might arise is for projects of a self liquidating nature. A more common expectation is that mary projects will require one hundred percent financing from abroad if the required overall average contribution of 89 percent is to be achieved.

270. Chad is at a level of extreme poverty. Improvement in standards of living will be slow. It will face problems in reducing its deficits on trade and services account and in generating budget surpluses. For these reasons Chad will find it necessary to rely almost exclusively on grants and soft loans to finance its development effort.

ST. 3T" CAT APPENDIX

Table Number

1 External Medium- and Long-Term Public Debt Outstanding Including TTni-ri.sbursed as of December 31, 1966

2 Estimated Contractual Service Payments on External Mdedium- and Long-Term Public Debt Cutstanding Including Undisbursed as of December 31, 1966

3 Assumed Projection of Service Payments on Loans for which Complete Teirms have not Been Supplied

3a Asstmed Projections of Service Payments on Government Loans for which Complete Terms Have not Been Supplied

3b Assumed Projections of Service Payments on Supplierls Credits for w-nich Complete Terms Have not Been Supplied

4 Estimated Total Service Payments on Loans Agreed but not yet Signed

4a Estimated Service Payments on Government Loans Agreed but not yet Signed

4b Estimated Total Service Payments on Supplierst C;edits Agreed but not yet Signed

5 Population Density by Prefecture, 1964

6 Index of Cost of Living in Fort Lamy, (l959-66)

7 iinimum 1lage Rates (1954-67)

8 IMIeans of Financing Current Deficits and Central Government Public Investment 1960-67.

9 Functional Classification of Central Government Current; &zpenditures

10 Current Receipts of the Central Government, 1960-67 11 Investment Expenditures of the Central Government, 1960-67

12 Percentage Distribution of Central Government Current Expenditures

13 Percentage Distribution of the Current Receipts of the Central Government, 1960-67

14 Percentage Distribution of Investment Expend:iture of the Central Government, 1960-67

Table llumber

15 Ex-.enditures on National Defense and Security Compared with T_1 Current E x-penditures

Li Total Consolidated Income of Municipalities

17 Consolidated Expenditures of IMiunicipalities

18 ExDpenditures by Iunicipalities

19 Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices

20 Gross Dom-estic Product - Consumption and Investment

21 Comparison of Sectoral Composition of GDP for the Cental Af'rican Sub-region (1963)

22 Listimated Private and Public Sector Investment

22a Public and Private Investment b,y Source

22b Estimated Expenditures of Foreign Assistance to Chad (1961-66)

23 Breakdovm by Term of loans IIade by the Deve'opment Bank of Chad

24 Loans by Sector Made by the I)evelopment Bank of Chad

25 Lending Operations of the Development Bank as of June 30, 1966

26 ,7rad Development Bankl .Subscriptions to Share -Capital of Enterprises

27 E:xpenditures of Project Aid from France (FAQ)

28 Expenditures of Project AID from the Cornwon Market (FE,D)

29 Investment Program of Five-Year Plan (1966-70) by Sector

29a Forecast of Annual Expenditures by Sector of First Five-Year Plan (1966-70)

29b Agricultural Production Targets of the First Five Year Plan Compared with Past Production

29c Value of Local Production of Principal Raw; and Processed Foodstuffs

30 Estimated Sources of Financing for First Five-Year Plan

Table Nuiimber

31 Value of Local Production of Goods and Services

32 Output, Yields and Value of Cotton Production

32a Production and Average Yields of Seed Cotton

32b Breakdoim of Cotton Costs (F.O.B.)

32c Components of Cost of Cotton (1965-66)

32d Consolidated Financial Accounts of COIT0NFMRAI

32e Raw Cotton lnuRual Targets in Five-Year Plan 32f Trends of Cotton Prices and Farm Income Compared Aithi Cost of Living

33 Cattle, Sheep and Goat Polmulation, Annual Offtake, Slaughter and Live Exports

33a Livestock Population by Prefecture - 1966

33b M;ieat Production. at Controlled Slaughterhouses

34 Production and Sale of Electric Power

35 IIajor Land Routes to Chad for Imports and T!xports

35a TNumber of Registered Vehicles by Type

35b Road Traffic lIovements 1960-66

35c Air Transport Mlovements (1960-66)

36 Monetary Survey

37 Consolidated Assets and Liabilities of Coimnercial and Develop- ment Banks (1960-67)

38 Estimated Global Balance of' Payments

39 Balance of Payments with Countries Outside the French Franc Area, 1960-66

40 Estimated Balance on Goods and Services Account, 1960-66

41 Recorded Imports by Conniodity Groups, 1960-66

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Table lWumber

42 Recorded Inports of Principal Conmodities - 1960-66

43 Origin of Recorded Imports

44 Imports by Conmodity Groups from UDEAC countries, 1964-66

45 Recorded Exports by Colrrmnodity Groups, 1960-66

46 Recorded Exports of Principal CamQnodities, 1960-66

47 Destination of 7Tecorded Exports

48 Exports by Conmmodity Groups and Principal Commodities to UDEAC Countries, 1962-66

49 exports by Destination and imports by Orlgin to UDEAC Countries, 19s62 -66

50 Technical and Vocational Education Enrollinent

51 Primary School -Enrollment Index by District and Sex 52 School Age Population

53 Public General Secondary School .Znrollment

54 Technical Assistance Being Provided to Chad in 1967 by Source and Type p Table 1: CHAD

EXTERNAL MEDIUM- AND LONIG TERII. PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTAIDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31 1966

Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency

(In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents)

Debt outstanding (including undisbursed) Item December 31, 1966

TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 23_507

Suppliers$ credits 2,627

Loans from Western Governments 20,88o

France 20,480 Israel 40()

/ Debt with an original or extended maturity of one year or more.

Source: IBRD Table 2: CHAD

ESTLMATED CONTRACTUAL SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM4 PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1966 L Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency

(In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents)

GRAND TOTAL

D,ebt Oatst. (Begin of Period) Including Payments Wuring Period Year Undisbursed Amortization Interest Totai

1967 20,58C2 3,262 363 3,625 1968 17,320 1,262' 316 1,573 1969 16,058 1,337' 278 1,615 1970 14,721 1,199 235 1,4314 1971 13,522 90c) 195 1,104 1972 12,613 707' 168 875 1973 11,906 72-, 151 874 1974 11,183 686, 137 823 1975 10,497 613 121 734 1976 9,884 538; 108 646 1977 9,346 460 98 558 1978 8,8a86 325 91 416 1979 8,561 328 88 416 1980 8,233 332 84 416 1981 7,901 33L: 81 41,

SUPPLIERS' CREDITS

Debt Ottst. (Begin of Period) Including Payments During Period Year Undisbursed Amortization Interest Total

1967 983 262 56 318 1968 721 253 42 295 1969 468 2314 27 261 1970 234 234 13 247

/1 See footnotes at end of table. Table 2: CHAD (Conttd)

EST1lHATED CONTRACTUAL SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM PUBLIC DEBT OUT'STANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 19665.

Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency

(In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents)

LOANS FROM FRANCE

Debt Outst. (Begin of Period) Including Payments During Period Year Undisbursed Amortization Interest Total

1967 19,599 3,000 307 ,307 1968 16,599 1,009 274 1,283 1969 15,590 1,103 251 1,354 1970 14,487 965 222 1,187 1971 13,522 909 195 1,104 1972 12,613 707 168 875 1973 11,906 723 151 874 1974 11,183 686 137 823 1975 10,497 613 121 734 1976 9,884 538 108 646 1977 9,346 460 98 558 1978 8,886 325 91 416 1979 8,561 32U 88 416 1980 8,233 332 84 416 1981 7,901 334 81 415

/ Includes service on all debt listed in Table 1 prepared May 23, :1967 except for the following loans for which terms of repayment are not available.

(In U.S. dollar equivalents)

(IBRD Debt Number

3 $ 60,765 from the Rep. of France to the Rep. of Chad 4 $283,570 from the Rep. of France to the Rep. of Chad 5 $473,966 from the Rep. of France to the Rep. of Chad 41 $ 63,560 from C.C.C.E. to the S.H.T. of Chad 52 $200,000 from the Government of Israel to the Rep. of Chad 53 $200,000 from the Government of Israel to the Rep. of Chad 51 $506,056 from the S.C.O.A. to the Rep. of Chad 54 $318,750 from Ferrostaal Aktiengesellschaft of the Rep. of Chad 55 $818,750 from Ferrostaal Aktiengesellschaft to the Rep. of Chad

Source: IBRD

Table 3: CHAD

ASSUMED PROJECTIONS OF SERVICE PAYMENTS ON LOANS FOR W&HICH COMPLETE TERMS HAVE NOT BEEN SUPPLIEL/. (In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents)

GRAND TOTAL

Debt Outst. (Begin of Period) Including Payments Dkuring Period Year Undisbursed Amortization Interest Total

1967 2,926 315 123 438 1968 2,611 315 108 423 1969 2,296 315 94 409 1970 1,981 315 80 395 1971 1,666 344 65 409 1972 1,322 624 48 672 1973 698 118 15 133 1974 580 81 12 93 1975 499 81 10 91 1976 418 81 8 99 1977 337 61 6 67 1978 276 35 5 40 1979 241 35 5 40 1980 206 35 4 39 1981 171 35 3 38

L Missing terms assumed by mission as follows: Loan No. (See footnote to table 2)

3 Assumed equal principal payments 4 Assumed equal principal payments 5 Assumed repayable in 20 years including 5 years grace period 41 Assumed rate of interest and equal principal payments 52 Assumed equal principal payments 53 Assumed equal principal payments 51 Repayable after 6 years in full (supplier) 54 Assumed equal principal payments (supplier) 55 Assumed equal principal payments (supplier) and date of inactivity.

Source: IBRD Table 3a: CHAD

ASSUMED PROJECTIONS OF SERVICE PAYMENTS ON GOVERNMENT LOANS FOR WHICH COMPLETE TERMS HAVE NOT BEEN SUPPLIE] 0 .

(In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents)

Debt Outst.. (Begin of Period) Including Payments During Period Year Undisbursed Amortization Interest Total

1967 1,282 87 24 111 1968 1,195 87 24 111 1969 1,108 87 23 110 1970 1,021 87 22 109 1971 934 118 21 139 1972 816 118 18 136 1973 698 118 15 135 1974 580 81 12 93 1975 499 81 10 91 1976 418 81 8 89 1977 337 61 6 67 1978 276 35 5 40 1979 241 35 5 40 1980 206 35 4 39 1981 171 35 3 38

A Missing terms assumed by mission as follows:

Loan No. (See footnote to table 2)

3 Assumed equal principal. payments 4 Assumed equal principal payments 5 Assumed repayable in 20) years including 5 years grace period 41 Assumed rate of interest and equal principal payments 52 Assumed equal principal payments 53 Assumed equal principal payments

Source: IBRD Table 3b: CHAD

ASSUMED PROJECTIONS OF SERVICE PAYMENTS ON SUPPLIERSI CREDITS FOR WHICH COMPLETE TERMS HAVE NOT BEEN SUPPLIEIA

(In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents)

Debt Oatst. (Begin of Period) Including Payments Daring Period Year Undisbursed Amortization Interest Total

1967 1,644 228 99 327

1968 1,416 228 84 312

1969 1,188 228 71 299

1970 960 228 58 286

1971 732 226 44 270 1972 506 506 30 536

A Missing terms assumed by missions as follows:

Loan No. (See footnote to table)

51 Repayable after 6 years in full (supplier) 54 Assumed equal principal payments (supplier) 55 Assumed equal principal payments (supplier and date of inactivity

Source: IBRD Table 4: CHAD

ES=TIATED TOTAL SERVICE PAYMENTS ON LOANS AGREKD BUT NOT YET SIGNEZ.

(In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents)

Debt Outst. (Begin of Period) Including Payments During Period Year Undisbursed Amortization Interest Total

1967 ------1968 6,401 253 158 411 1969 6,148 253 157 410 1970 5,895 253 156 409 1971 5,642 253 155 0o8 1972 5,389 537 154 691 1973 4,852 537 128 665 1974 4,315 537 102 639 1975 3,778 537 76 613 1976 3,241 284 49 333 1977 2,957 403 41 444 1978 2,554 403 31 434 1979 2,151 120 22 142 1980 2,031 120 20 140 1981 1,911 120 19 139

L The loans to be signed are: a. Loan of CFA 490 M repayable in 12 years including 5 years grace at 3% p.a. from Kreditanstalt b. Loan of CFA 500 M repayable in 8 years at 7% p.a. from Wallensteiner c. Loan of CFA 300 M repayable in 30 years including 10 years grace at 1% from FED d. Loan of CFA 290 M repayable in 30 years including 10 years grace at 1% from FAC

Source: IBRD Table 4a: CHAD

ESfTIMATED SERVICE PAYMENTS ON GOVERMENT LOANS AGREED BUT NOT YET SIGNED &

(In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents)

Debt Outst. (Begin of Period) Includiing Payments During Period Year Year UndisbursedUndi.sbursed Amortization InterestTtl ES 1967 1968 3,160 14 14 1969 3,160 29 29 1970 3,160 --- 43 43 1971 3,160 ---- 57 57 1972 3,120 284 71 355 1973 2,876 284 63 347 1974 2.592 284 54 338 19;75 2,308 284 46 330 1976 2,024 284 37 321 1977 1,740 342 29 37Z 1978 1,398 342 20 362 1979 1,056 59 11 70 19 80 997 59 1.0 69 1981 938 59 9 68

/ The loans to be signed are:

a) Loan of CFA 490 M repayable in 12 years including 5 years grace at 3% p.a. from Kreditanstalt b) Loan of CFA 290 M repayable in 30 years including 10 years grace at 1% from FAC

Source: IBRD Table 4b: CHAD

ESTIMATED TOTAL SERVICE PAYMENTS ON SUFPLIERSJ CREDITS AGREED BUT NOT YET SIGNED /1 (In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents)

Debt Outst. (Begin of Period) Including Payments During Period Year Undisbursed Amortization Interest Total

1967 - 1968 3,241 253 144 397 1969 2,988 253 129 382 1970 2,735 253 ll4 367 1971 2,482 253 98 351 1972 2,229 253 83 336 1973 1,976 253 65 318 1974 1,723 253 48 301 1975 1,470 254 30 284 1976 1,216 - 12 12 1977 1,216 61 12 73 1978 1,155 61 12 73 1979 1,094 61 11 72 1980 1,033 61 10 71 1981 972 61 10 71

L The loans to be signed are:

a. Loan of CFA 500 M repayable in 8 years at 7% p.a. from Wallensteinrer Group- b. Loan of CFA 300 M repayable in 30 years including 10 years g,race at 1% p.a. from FED.

Source: IBRD Table 5: CHAD

POPULATION DENSITY BY PREFECTURE, 196L

Area Prefecture Population square kms. Inhabitants/sq. km.

B.E.T. 75,000 600,350 0.1

Kanem 170,000 114,520 1.5

Lake Chad 115,000 22,320 5.1

Biltine 129,000 46,850 2.7

Ouaddai 310,000 76,21L0 4.1

Salamat 84,000 63,000 1.3

Batha 296,000 88,800 3.3

Cnari Baguirmi 402,000 82,910 5.o

Guera 159,000 58,950 2.7

,aoyen Chari 374,000 45,180 8.3

East Logone 236,000 28,035 8.4

West Logone 190,000 8,695 21.9

Tandjile 228,000 18,045 12.6

Mlayo Kebbi 486,o00 30,105 16.2

3,25L,000 1,284,000 2.53

Source: Enquete dgmographique au Tchad, 1964 Table 6: CHAD

Index of Cost of Living in Fort Lamy, 1959-66

(Average 1958 = 100)

1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 July July July Ju:Ly July July July July

Food 110 123 126 129 135 151 159 172 Utilities 99 100 105 100 96 ibo ljl 1i1h Clothing 110 115 125 128 131 140 1i1 15i Domestic servants 120 120 120 120 120 137 152 169 Other 11i 116 128 132 11X7 10o 1L6 15b

Total 110 118 123 126 131 1L6 152 162

Source: Service de la Statistique G6n6rale, Bulletin Mensuel de Statistig-ue, Fort Lamr,y.

A This index is based on the consumption pattern of families with incomes of more than CFAF 100,000 a month and is computed on the basis of the retail prices of 125 articles and services in Fort Lriny. Table 7 : CHAD

MINIMU4M WAGE RATES, 1959-67 (In CFA francs per hour)

2/ 1J964h;L 1954-56 1957 1958 19 59 -63L/ to date

Nonagricultural workers 6/ Urban centers and northern Chad- 8.50 10.50 12.00 15.00 22.00 Lowest wage zone 6.50 6.50 10.0( 12.50 20.00 Agricultural workers Northern Chad 7/ 7.50 9.00 10.50 13. 00 18.50 Lowest wage zoneJ 5.50 5.50 8.00 11.00 18.50

Source: Service de la Statistique G6nerale, Bulletin Mensuel de Statistique, Fort Lamy, January 1964.

] Decree of January 19, 1954

21 Decree of November 1956

31 Decree of November 6, 1957

V Decree of April 1, 1959

V No change had been made as of June 1967.

6/ Since 1959 this includes not only Fort Archambau:Lt, Fort Lzamy, and the BET provinces, but also Moundou, Bongor, Pala, and Abech6.

7/ Consists of the rest of the country since 1959. Before 1959 there were three wage zones. la,ble d: CHAD IEANS OF FINANCING CJRRBINT DEFICITS AND CMMTi{AL GOVER1'ThENT PUBLIC INVESTMEENT 1960-67

(in millions of CFA francs)

1960- 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 '

Current Receipts 3902.0 4562.4 4983.9 6128.5 6463.9 7576.0 8905.0 9901.2

Current Expenditures 3773.3 4602.5 5386.7 5475.8 6336.7 7165.5 9056.3 9358.7

Balance on Current Account 128.7 - 40.1 - 402.8 652.7 127.2 410.5 - 151.3 542.5

Debt Service A 214.2 258.9 261.5 146.8 172.1 212.1 579.1 397.8

Balance including Debt Service - 85.5 - 299.o - 664.3 505.9 - 44.9 198.4 - 730.4 144.7

Investment Expenditure 331.7 502.5 294.4 617.8 661.3 565.3 544.3 N.A.

Overall Surplus/Deficit - 417.2 - 801.5 - 958.7 - 111.9 - 706.2 - 366.9 -1274.7 -

Means of Financing - TOTAL 351.6 1068.0 1018.1 867.1 605.5 344.6 464-0

External Subsidies 350.8 74h.6 861.8 717.0 605.5 344.0 370.0 France-budget support (350.8) (650.0) (713.8) - - - _ France-nL-1vestr,ent SUpport - (i25.') ((700.0) 7001) (56.5) (320.0) (370.0) A.T.E.C. - ( 23.0) ( 17.0) ( 38.0) ( 2ii.0) -

External 3orrowing - 252.5/2 - - - -

Domestic Borrowing - 70.0 30.0 - - -

Other 0.8 0.9 126.3 13 150.1 /4 - o.6 94.0

Net Transfers from (-) or to Govern- ment Reserves or Cash Balances - 65.6 266.5 59.4 755.2 100.7- -22,3 - 810.7

1 Including interest and amortization. /2 Loans from the Caisse Centrale et Cooperation Economique (France) i Payment by Congo (B) to Chad for its share of the assets of the former Federation of French Equatorial Africa. "Recettes des gestions anterierues" and "versement sur liquidation des biens du groups"(former Federation assets). 1967 Budget is certain to be revised since estimates of revenues are high. See discussion under Future Prospects.

Source: Chad Central Government Budgets and Compte D6finitif. fdo.le >: CHAD FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION OF CENTRAL GOVJERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURES

(in millions of CFA francs)

(revised) Budget 1960 1961 1962 6 1964 1965 1966 967

General Services 1143.1 1479.7 2233.8 2064.4 2477.9 3095.5 4465.5 4548.0 Political Administration 158T1 11.3 184.9 64.6 170.0 1 157.1 (Parliament) General Administration 695.0 897.2 1312.9 1037.3 1171.2 1284.3 1632.9 1690.9 2 National Defense & Securit/ .290.0 401.2 736.0 962.5 1136.7 1644.9 2664.9 2700.0

Economic Services 65.2 UL 541.4 571.8 662.6 714.1 896.8 874.5 Agriculture2 298.6 327.9 36W7 498.1 483.2 497.6 Public Works & TransportL3 258.6 187.2 195.7 188.2 206.6 186.2 362.1 356.3 Tourism 8.0 17.4 12.3 9.3 29.8 51.5 20.6

Social Services 2132 9K . 1138.7 1311.8 1676.6 1951.3 2041.8 2068.8 Health 398.3 571.6 495.8 526.7 7T2.0722.9 786.3 809.0 Education & Training 465.4 580.o 598.2 737.8 942.7 1059.4 1128.6 1188.6 Other 50.2 45.7 44.5 47.3 105.0 149.9 126.9 71.2

Unallocated & Miscel1peous 1150.8 1 42 1226.6 1490.1 1494.3 1376.0 1626.2 1867.4 Common Expenditure A 685.9 943 8.3 990.9 778.1 711.8 667.o 921.5 Technical Assistance Counter- 52.0 52.0 50.0 106.0 130.7 215.5 206.3 223.0 part Contributions to International and African Organizations 102.3 51.0 68.9 134.1 81.7 101.3 141.7 161.6 Refunds, Transfers, and Subsidies 310.6 296.7 302.4 259.1 503.8 347.4 611.2 E5 561.3 (net of Loans and Advances re-7pyment) 0.3 50.3 246.2 25.3 28.6 26.0 - Total Current Expenditures 3_._ !_____ 5386.7 L475.8 6336.7 7165.5 2906.2 238.7 1 Including army, gendarmerie, national guard, and security police. 2 Including livestock, irrigation, and forestry. MaIncluding road and airport maintenance and expenditures of the roafd fund. 3 ainly on officiad transport, housing, telephones, and maintenance of buildings. Including CFAF 150 million for the Cotton Price Stabilization Fund and CFAF 13.7 million for the cotton export subsidy. Source: Chad Central Government Budgets and Compte D6finitif. Table 10: CHAD

CURRENT RECEIPTS OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT, 1960-1967

(in millions of CFA francs)

(Revised 4 (Budget) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1961 1965 1966 1967

Fiscal Receipts 3121.9 1316.3 h662.6 5816.9 6172.9 7227.5 890.1h 9185.2 Direct Taxes 887.8 88L.3 1191.1 1172.8 1517.9 2016.4 2115.0 2758.5 Income Taxes ( 257.1) ( 220.6) ( h65.1) ( 535.5) ( 551.4) ( 742.h) ( 994.3) (1083-5) Other C 630.7) ( 663.7) ( 728.7) ( 937.3) ( 966.5) (1301.0) (1150.7) (1675.0)

Indirect Taxes 2237.1 31j62.0 3h68.5 1311.1 1655.o 5181.1 6353-. 6726.7 Import Duties (1118.9) (2116.6) (2227.5) (2751.8) (3008.2) (3213.7) (1756.8) (1990.0) Export Duties ( 297.3) ( 549.1) ( 410.5) ( 643.3) ( 695.6) ( 720.4) ( 719-1) ( 771-0) Transaction Taxes ( 10.3-4) ( 146.7) ( 187.7) ( 251.1) ( 213.2) ( 261.1) ( 358.1) ( 516.0) Sqles Taxes ( 129-9) ( 131.5) ( 501.2) ( 532.8) ( 541.5) ( 768.0) ( 405.2) ( 280.0) Fees and Dues ( 90.6) ( 88-3) ( 108-.) ( 2-2) ( 35-5) ( 32-3) ( 30-6) ( 10-0) Other ( h67.0) ( 129.8) ( 33.2) ( 122.9) ( 131.0) ( 185.6) ( 83.6) ( 129.7)

Non-Fiscal Receipts 777.1 216.1 321.3 311.6 291.0 318.5 146.6 116.o

Governnent Seri ce 5. 56. r.3 2oi. Other 726.6 165.5 2147.6 211.8 186.7 221.9 239.8 131.7

Total Current Revenues 3902.0 1562.1 4983.9 6128.5 6163.9 7576.o 8905.0 9901.2

Note: Loans and advances are shown on the expenditure table as a net amount after repayments.

/1 Mission estimate r Including net receipts of P.T. & T. in 1965, 1966 & 1967 after the P.T. & T. of the pre-independence Federation was broken into national units.

Source: Chad Central Government Budgets and Compte D6finitif. Table 11: CHAD

INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMEin, 1960-67

(in millions of CFA francs)

(revised) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

Infrastructure 203.6 158.1 258.8 441.7 488.1 399.9 421.2 Transport & Communications 0.7 3.6 37.6 54. 93.9 74.2 41.9 Roads ( 0.7) ( 3.6) ( 37.6) ( 46.o) (73.0) ( 36.5) ( 19.4) Air transport - - - ( 8.6) ( 8.8) ( 9.5) (13.0) Communication - - - - ( 12.1) ( 28.2) ( 9.5) Buildings 202.9 154.5 221.2 387.1 394.2 325.5 379.3 Construction ( 71.2) ( 95.9) ( 77.7) (256.6) (361.2) (314.4) (367.3) Purchases (131.7) ( 58.6) (143.5) (130.5) ( 33.0) ( 11.1) ( 12.0)

Economic Development - -- 47.5 31.1 6 41.1 Industry and Mining - - - 21.1 17.2 Agriculture - - - 26.4 113.5 28.9 23.9 Tourism - - - 8.0 - - Other - - - - -

Social Development - 38.5 - 31.81 505 52.1 Education 3 - 25.2 12.9 -303 Health - - - 1.5 8.4 0.6 - Other - 6.0 - - 0.5 37.0 52.1

Participation and Subventions - 25.0 - _ 1.6 43.7 8.o Participation in Public Enterprise - - - - - 43.7 8.o Subventions ------Other - 25.0 - - 1.6 --

Miscellaneous 128.1 280.9 35.6 96.8 6.4 10.6 21.9

TOTAL __.__ 502.5 294.4 617.8 661.3 565.3 544-

/ Excluding repayment of advance made to F.I.D.E.S. during 1960.

Source: Chad Central Government Budgets and Compte D6finitif. TaCJe 12: CHAD

PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTIONQ OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURES

(revi.sed) (budget) 1960 1961 1962 1963 196L 1965 1966 1967

General Services 30.3 32.1 1.5 37.7 39.1 r.? [S.- L8.6 Political Administration 3.9 3. 1.2 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.7 (Parliament) General Administration 18J.L 19.5 2b.L 18.9 18.5 17.9 18.0 18.1 National Defense & Security/' 7.7 8.z 13.7 17.6 17.9 23.0 29.L 28.8

Economic Services 15.0 11.6 10.0 10.L lo.L 10.0 9.9 9-3 Agricu].ture 2 7.9 7.1 7..027.77 7.0 5.3 Public Works & TransportL 6.9 4.1 3.6 3-L 3.3 2.6 L.° 3.8 Tourism 0.'4 0.2 - 0.1 o.L 0.6 0.2

Social Services 2L.2 26.0 21.1 2L.0 26.5 27.2 22.5 22.1 Health 10.672.h 9.2 9.9 Io.h -7 Education & Training 12.3 12.6 11.1 13.5 1h.9 1L.8 12.5 12.7 Other 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.0 1. 0.8

Unallocated & Miscellaneous 30.5 29.2 22.8 27.2 23.6 19.2 18.0 20.0 Common ExpenditureLs 177, 20.5 15.0 18.1 12.3 10.0 7.TL 9.9 Technical Assistance Counterpart 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.9 2.1 3.0 2.3 2.L Contributions to International & 2.7 1.1 1.3 2.5 1.3 1.L 1.6 1.7

r c&anI flz G~ Afr>^ca Org5 anlaona t- iJ.1.'. S Refunds, Transfers, & Subsidies 8.2 6.4 5.6 4.7 8.o 4.8 6.7/5 6.0 Loans and Advances (net) - 1.1 4.6 0.7 0.o O.L 0.3 - Total Current Expenditures 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

n_ _ 41 Including army, gendarmerie, national guard, and security police. 2 Including livestock, irrigation, and forestry. Including road and airport maintenance and expenditures of the road fund. Mainly on official transport, housing, telephones, and maintenance of buildings. Including CFAF 150 million for the Cotton Price Stabilization Fund and CFAF 13.7 million for the cotton export subsidy.

NOTE: Sub totals do not always add, due to rounding. Source: Based upon Table 9. Table 13: CHAD

PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE CURRENT RECEIPTS OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMIET, 1960-1967- 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967

- - - -~-- ( RevTlsc Estimated) (Budget)

Fiscal Receipts 80.1 95.3 93.6 94.9 95.5 95.4 95.4 95.8

Direct taxes 22.8 19-4 23.9 24.0 23.5 27.0 24.1 27.9 Income taxes ( 6.6) ( b.8) ( 9.3) ( 8.7) ( 8.5) ( 9.8) (11.2) (10.9) Other (16.2) (14.6) (lb.6) (15-3) (15.0) (17.2) (12.9) (16.9)

Indirect taxes 57.3 75.9 69.7 70.9 72.0 68.b 71.3 67.9 Import duties (29.4) (46.4) (44.7) (44.9) (46.5) (42.4:) (53.4) (50o.) Export duties ( 7.6) (12.0) ( 8.2) (10.5) (10.8) ( 9.6) ( 8.1) ( 7.8.) Transaction taxes ( 2.6) ( 3.2) ( 3.8) ( 4.1) ( 3.8) ( 3-.) ( 4-0) ( 5.2) Sales taxes ( 3.3) ( 9.5) (10.1) ( 8.7) ( 8.b) (10.2) ( 4.6) ( 2.8) Fees & dues ( 2.3) ( 1-9) ( 2.2) ( .7) ( .5) ( 0dm) ( 0-3) ( 0-4) Other (12.0) ( 2)9) ( .7) ( 2.0) ( 2.0) ( 2.4) ( 0.9) ( 1-3)

Non-Fiscal Receipts 19.9_-7 6.4* 5.1 4.5 4.6 h.6 L.2

Governnent services,2 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.9 Other 18.6 3.6 5.0 3.5 2.9 2.9 2.7 1.3

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Note: Loans & advances are shown in the expenditure table as a net amount after repayments Note: Subtotals do not always add up, due to rounding

/1 Mission estimate 72 Including net receints of P.T. & T. in 1965, 1966 and 1967 after the P.T. & T. of the pre-independence Federation was broken into national units.

Source: Based upon Table 10. iab:Le 14: CIHAD PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF INVESTMENT EXPENDITURE OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT, 1960-67

Revised 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

Infrastructure 61.4 3 1.5 87h9 71.5 U- 70. 77. Transport and Communication 0.2 0.7 12.8 8.-8 14.2 13.1 7.7 Roads ( 0.2) ( 0.7) (12.8) ( 7.4) (11.0) ( 6.5) ( 3.6) Air Transport - - - ( 1.4) ( 1.3) ( 1.7) ( 2.4) Communication - - - - (1.8)- ( 5.o) ( 1.7) Buildings 61.2 30.8 75.1 62.7 59.6 57.6 69.7 Construction (21.5) (19.1) (26.4) (41.5) (54.6) (55.6) (67.5) Purchases (39.7) (11.7) (48.7) (21.1) ( 5.0) ( 2.0) ( 2.2)

Economic Development - - - 7 19.8 10.8 7.6 Industry and Mining - - - 3. 1T 5e7 3.2 Agriculture - - - 4.3 17.2 5.1 4.4 Tourism - - 1.2 - - Other -- - - -

Social Development - - 2 8.9 9.6 Education - 6. 4.9 3.8 2.3 - Health - - - 0.2 1.3 0.1 - Other - 1.2 - - 0.1 6.5 Y.6

Participation & Subventions - 5.0 - - 0.2 7.7 Participation in Public Enterprises - - - - - 7.7 1.5 Subventions ------Other - 5.0 - - 0.2 - - 1/ 1/ Miscellaneous 38.6 55.8 12.1 15.7 1.0 1.9 3.9

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Note: Subtotals do not always add due to rounding. 1/ Excluding repayments of advance made to F.I.D.E.S. during 1960.

Source: Based upon Table 11, Table 15: CHAD

EXPENDITURES ON NATIONAL DEFENSE AND SECURITY COMPARED WITH TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURES

(in millions of CFA Francs)

Total Total Current Defense & Defenses & Expenditure Security Security as % of Total Expend.

1960 3,773 290 7.7

1961 5,OO3 401 8.0

1962 5,387 736 13.7 1963 5,476 936 17.1

1964 6,337 1,137 17.9 1965 7,166 1,645 23.0 1966 (revised budget) 9,o56 2,665 29.4

1967 (budget) 9,359 2,700 28.8

Source: Ministry of Finance, Republic of Chad Table 16: CHAD

CONSOLIDATED INCOTE OF MUNIICIPAL:ETIES/1

In millions of CFA francs)

Budget Budget I165 1966 1967

Reimbursements and budget participa- tions 35.3 41.1 37.8

Contributions and incomes transferred to municipalities 147.2 166.6 176.1

Municipal taxes 163.6 179.1 179.2

Income from local properties 49.6 51.7 51.6

Proceeds from technical services 18.8 20.1 20.5

Other income 8.9 1.1 -

Other income carried over 71.5 - -

Total current income 494.9 459.7 465.2

Total capital income - 14.2 120.0

Grand total 494.9 473.8 585.2

1 Ft. Lan_y Ft. Archambault, Moundou Abeche, Pala, Bongor, Doba, and Koumra. iTote: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ministry of the Interior. Table 17: CHAD

CONSOLIDATED EXPENDITURES OF MUNICIPALITIESLI

(In millions of CFA francs)

Budge t 3iudgret 1964 1965 1966 1967

Current excenditures 38.7 38.6 38.5 38.3

.eneral administrative personnel 42.0 42.0 45.6 43.3

Administrative equipment and operating expenditures 9.1 10.2 10.8 10.2

Technical services personnel 79.5 87.0 86.5 96.o

Technical services equipment and operating expenditures 47.1 64.5 90.8 55.0

Common charges regarding personnel 7.3 5.6 10.6 10.3

Other common and maintenance expenditures 113.4 94.3 149.5 152.6

Renewal expenditures 0.6 10.6 62.4 27.9

Expenditures of closed fiscal years to be carried forward 7.2 27.1 23.3 -

Transfer to capital section - 1.3 92.1 15.0

Optional expenditures 11.3 10.4 9.1 11.5

Capital expenditures 66.4 - 120.0 2/ Grand total 422. 421.2 619.3 585.2

El Ft. Lamy, Ft. Archambault, Moundou, Abeche, Pala, Bcngor, Doba, and Koumra. Note: Totals do not add due to rounding. 2/ Detailed data for Lai not available for 1966. Total of CFAF 8 million indicated in Table 18.

Source: Ministry of the Interior. Table 183 CmAu

EXPEN1DITURES BY MUNICIPALITIES

(In millions of CFA francs)

Budget 3udget 1964 1965 1966 1967 Expenditures Expenditures Expenditures Expenditures Invest- Invest- Invest- Invest- Current ment Total Current ment Total Current ment Total Current ment Total

Ft. Lamy 271.6 35.4 307.0 275.5 - 275.5 356.5 56.7 413.2 327.0 107.6 434.6

Ft. Archambault 28.3 13.2 41.5 32.4 2.8 35.2 45.6 14.2 59.8 40.9 1.9 42.8

Moundou 21.2 6.7 27.9 24.8 3.3 28.1 32.6 23.2 55.8 34.2 2.9 37.1

Abeche 9.5 8.0 17.5 13.9 1.0 14.9 19.3 5.0 24.3 17.1 1.1 18.2 Pala 5.0 2.2 7.2 19.9 0.8 20.7 15.5 8.3 23.8 10.7 - 10.7

Bongor 7.9 - 7.9 6.5 1.7 8.2 10.7 4.7 15.4 10.9 2.2 13.1

Doba 6.1 0.7 6.8 8.1 - 8.1 6.9 7.4 14.3 10,9 2.9 13.b

Koumra 6.5 0.1 6.6 10.6 10.6 9.4 3.2 12.6 9.3 1.4 10.7 Lai - - 18.P 3 4 3 43

Total 356.1 66.4 422., 391.7 9 401.2. 2 126.Z L 465.2 120.0 585.3

Note: Totals do not add due to rounding.

Source: Ministry of Interior. Table 19: CHAD

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODIJCT BY SECTOR AT CURRENT PRICES (In Millions of CFA Francs) Annual Growth 1958 1961 1962 1963 Rate Amount % Amount % Amount % Amownt % %

Agriculture 25,575 64.5 26,109 55.2 27,755 54.8 28,456 54.1 2.1

Industry 1,960 5.o 1,948 4.1 1,894 3.8 2,092 X 0 1.3

Construction 897 2.3 1,653 3.5 1,776 3.5 2,139 4.1 19.0

Transport 400 1.0 554 1.2 533 1.1 589 1.1 8.1

Commerce 6,176 15.6 9,519 20.1 10,325 20.4 10,437 19.9 11.1

Services 681 1.7 1,074 2.3 1,240 2.4 1,268 2.4 13.2

Government Services 3,693 9.3 6,042 12.8 6,700 13.2 7,170 13.6 14.2

Salaries of domestics 244 o.6 380 0.8 408 0.8 432 0.8 12.1

Total 39,626 100.0 47,279 100.0 50,631 100.0 52,583 100.0 5.7

Source: "Comptes EQonomiques"' 1958 and 1961-1962-1963. Table 20: CHAD

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUJCT - CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT

(In current prices - millions of CFA Francs)

Forecast 1958 1961 1962 1963 1965 1970 Amount JL Amount dv Amount d7 Amount % Amount % Amount d Private consumption 31,812 79.8 39,01h 82.6 13,587 86.1 43,941 83.6 49,836 84.5 62,730 79.8 Government consunption 4,901 12.4 6,247 13.2 6,889 13.6 7,318 13.9 8,402/2 1h.3 1l,904 15.1

investment )4,35o 10.9 4,447 9 5,58h 11.0 6,029 11.5 5,376 9.1 7,361 9.4

Changes in stocks 1,227 3.1 12434 3.0 - 700 - 1.4 631 1.2 Total internal expenditure 42,350 106.2 51,142 108.2 55,360 109.4 57,919 110.2 63,614 107.9 81,995 104.3

Net exports -2,501± -8 -9'J*L L2L 3.4 -. 9 - GDP 39,849 100.0 47,251 100.0 50,621 100.0 52,579 100.0 58,979 100.0 78,603 100.0

Sources: Comptes Economiques, 1958, Comptes Economiques, 1961-1962-1963, and Five Year Development Plan, 1965-70. L Excluding expenditures on traditional housing which has been about CFAF 1.4-1.5 billion per year. This amount is included in private consumption as in the following years.

2 Including government wages. Table 21: CHAD

COMPARISCN OF SECTORAL COMPOSITION OF GDP FOR THE CENTRAL AFRICAN SUB REGION (1963 Indus- trial Agric. Popula- GDP GEP GDP tion Industry per per per '00o0s GDP Agric. Mining Mfg. Power Constr. Total Otler caput caput caput

in M. ustp of

Congo (Brazza.) 885 136.8 23.4 - 15.5 - 4.9 - 20.4 56.1 154 31 36

Gabon 450 190.8 26.6 21.3 4.3 0.8 5.0 31.4 41.9 413 130 110.

CAR% 1,312 141.6 142.7 3.7 5.4 1.7 2.8 13.1 43.6 108 15 46

Chad 3,250 210.4 49.8 - 3.8 0.1 2.7 7.2 142.9 64 5 32

Cameroon 5,000 626.0 41.3 - 7.8 1.2 3.5 12.5 46.2 125 16 52

Congo (Kinshasa)15,102 1,185.2 29.5 7.6 18.1 1.6 1.9 29.2 41.3 78 23

Sub-region million US$ 26,011 2,490.8 855.5 136.8 307.8 34.8 68.4 547.8 1,088.4 96 21 33

Percent 100 34.4 5.4 12.3 1.4 2.9 21.9 43.6

Source: Economic Commission for Africa Table 22 : CHAD

ESTIMATED PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SECTOR INVEST[ENT

Forecast Sector 1958 1961 1962 1963 1965 1970

(in millions of CFA francs)

Private 1036 1156 1930 1840 736 900

Public 3314 3291 3654 4189 464o 6461

Total 4 4447350 5584 609 E6/2

in percent

Private 24 26 35 31 14 12

Public 76 74 65 li9 86 88

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

Sources: a) Comptes Economiques 1958, Secretariat dtEtat aux relations avec les Etats de la Communaut6, 1960. b) Comptes Economiques, Ann6es 1961-1962-:L963, R6publique du Tchad, Sept. 1965. c) Premier Plan Quinquennal de D6veloppement Economique et Social, 1966-1970, R6publique du Tchad.

1/ Excluding estimated expenditures on traditional houses which have been included in consumption as in national accounts for other years. 2/ Breakdown of total was estimated by mission. Table 22a CHAD

MAJOR SOURCES OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT (in millions of CFA.f'rics)

1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1366 Total

Public Sector - Total 3245 3317 4380 3182 3480 3r)7 21,151

Central Government Investment Budget 502 294 618 661 565 51h4 3,184

Projects Grants outside budget - Total 2618 2913 3199 2226 2210 2315 15,481

FAC Projects 547 627 91)4 637 °00 820 L,7)45 FED Projects 695 1384 1395 1031 6)47 726 5,878 Organisation Commune des R6gions Sahariermes 721 470 262 -- 1,453 United States 74 272 148 222 /1 232/i 948 UNDPM . 3 3 2 2 2 12 lWorld Food Program Counterpart. .. - 25 61 61 147 China (Taiwan) __ __ -- 30 150 130 ATEC /3 25L 5 L __23 17 3u 24 152 Other Public Agencies & Enterprises 300 a3 300 300 300 300 300 1,800 Municipalities 30 30 30 - 66 10 -_ 166 Project Loans Outside Budget - Total 125 110 563 295 705 688 2,486 Caisse Centrale 125 110 75 295 268 149 1,022 Germany __ __ 88 -- 185 673 Other ...... 437 354 791 Private -Sector a - Total- ll_&110 850 _8_ 21__ Existing Industries 100 100 100 100 100 100 /7 600 New Industries 50 10 28 750 255 1900 - 2,993 SEEE (Power) ...... *.. 125 125 250

Total Public and Private Investment 3395 3427 4508 4032 3960 5672 2)4,99l4

/1 Committed S No investment budget in 1966 /6 Including CFAF 422 for Hotel Tchadien /2 Yearly breakdown estimated S Including semi-public 7 Including CFAF 13•0 million for the _3 Estimated textile factory and 502 million for the Hotel Tchadien. Sources: FED, FAC, Caisse Centrale, U.S. Aid Mission, Government of Chad. NOTE: Complete data on sources of total investment reported in Table 22 are not available. Table 22b: CHAD

ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES OF FOREIGN ASSISTANCE TO CHAD (1961-66)

(In millions of CFA Francs)

1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 Total Total

Public Grants - Total 3,546 4,004 4,031 3,213 2,884 2,958 21,136 90.4

Current Budget Support - France 650 714 - - - - 1,36k 5.8 Investment Budget Support France 95 125 700 568 320 370 2,178 9.3 ATEC 25 25 23 17 3 24 152 0.1 Projects Outside Budget France (FAC) 847 627 914 637 900 820 4,745 20.3 France (OCRS) 721 470 262 - - - 1,453 6.2 EEC (FED) 695 1,384 1,395 1,031 645 726 5,876 25.1 UNDP - 3 3 2 2 2 12 World Food Program/-l - - 25 61 61 147 0.1 United States - 74 272 148 222L2 232/2 948 4.1 Taiwa - - - - 30 150 180 0.1 Othe 3 300 300 300 300 300 300 1,800 7.7 Cotton Aid France 213 282 662 - - - 1,159 4.9 EEC (FED) - - - 485 366 273 1,124 4.8

P.ublic Borrowing - Total 378 110 563 295 393 510 2,248 9.6 Investment Budget (Caisse Centrale - 5 1.1 France) 253 - - 2 5 3 Project Loans Caisse Centrale (France) 125 110 75 295 268 199 1,072 4.6 SEEELl (France) - - - - 125 125 250 1.1 Germany - _ 488 - - 185 673 2.9

Total Foreign Assistance 3 9214 41114 5 094 3 508 3 277 346723384 100.0 Non-Development 863 996 662 485 366 273 T3,645T17h Development 3,061 3,118 4,432 3,023 2,911 3,194 19,739 84.4

L Annual phasing of total is estimated G2Commitments

a Estimated aid via ASCECNA and other other public agencies and enterprises supported by France. Source: FED, FAC, Caisse Centrale, U.S. Aid Mission, Government of Chad. Table 23EHAD

BREAKDOWN BY TERM OF LOANS MADE BY THE DEVELOPMENT BANK OF CHAD

June 1965 L TOTAL 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 Dec. 1966 1962-66

(In millions of CFA francs)

Amount of Loans - Total 1,328 2.043 2,3800

Long Term 49 215 200 560 1,024 Medium Term 57 138 431 430 1,056 Short Term 1,222 1,690 1,749 3,833 8,49h

(In numbers)

Number of Loans - Total 519 2.728 4,176 5,921 13.344

Long Term 55 49 154 664 922 Medium Term 214 2,244 3,520 3,497 9,475 Short Term 250 435 502 1,760 2,947

(Percentage distribution)

Amount of Loans - Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Long Term 3.7 10.5 8.4 11.5 9.6 Medium Term 4.3 6.8 18.1 8.8 9.9 Short Term 92.0 82.7 73.5 79.7 80.3

Number of Loans - Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Long Term 10.6 1.8 3.7 11.2 6.9 MIedium Term 41.2 82.3 84.3 59.1 71.0 Short Tetrm 48.2 15.9 12.0 29.7 22.1

/ The fiscal year was changed to a calendar basis on 1 Jan. 1966; data was reported for 18 months in the transition year.

Note: Totals do not always add due to rounding.

Source: Chad Development Bank. Table 24: CHAD

LOANS BY SECTOR MADE BY THE DEVELOPMENT BANK OF CHAD

(In millions of CFA francs)

June 1965- Sector 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 Dec. 1966 TOTAL

Agriculture 1,194.9 1,698.9 1,871.5 3,718.1 8,483.4

Commercial Loans (1,194.2) (1,623.3) (1,580.2) (3,355.7) ( 7,753.3) Productivity - ( 26.8) ( 54.5) ( 188.1) ( 269.4) Equipment ( 0.7) ( 48.8) ( 236.8) ( 174.3) ( 460.6)

Industry 35.0 192.5 167.9 221.4 616.8

Artisan o.8 1.0 6.7 9.5 17.9

Commerce and Transport 22.0 19.0 26.0 149.1 216.1

Construction 71.6 124.2 273.5 700.0 1,169.3

Others 4_L 7-5 34.4 75.4 121.6

Total 1,328.6 2.043,2 2379.9 4_873_5 10.625.0

(In percent)

Agriculture 89.9 83.1 78.6 76.3 79.8

Commercial Loans (89.9) (79.4) (66.4) (68.8) (73.0) Productivity ( 0.0) ( 1.3) ( 2.3) ( 3.8) ( 2.5) Equipment ( - ) ( 2,4) ( 9.9) ( 3.6) ( 4.3)

Industry 2.6 9.4 .7.11. 4.5 5.8

Artisan 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2

Commerce and Transport 1.5 0.9 1.1 3.1 2.0

Construction 5.4 6.1 11.5 14.4 11.0

Others 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.5 1.1

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Note: Totals do not always add due to rounding.

Source: Chad Development Bank. Table 25: CHAD

BDT LENDIdG TOP8ATION8 AS OF JUNE 30, 1966

(in 4illions of CFA francs)

Loans issued during fiscal year 1965/66 Loans issued since beginning of BDT operation

Long-term l Medium_termL2 Short-term43 Total Long-ter.4l Mediu._termL2 Short-termL3 Total Percentage No. Value No. Value No. Value No. Value No. Value No. Value No. Value No. Value No. Value

Agricultural sector - - 2,753 167 14 1,708 2,767 1,875 102 66 8,L28 471 110 7,297 8,640 7,834 54.71 75.o6

Industry, handicraft - - 29 9 19 202 48 211 2 175 172 276 31 284 205 735 1.30 7.05 Trade, transport - - 6 56 6 63 12 119 - - 12 87 18 141 30 228 0.19 2.18

H4ousing 457 419 346 82 29 4 832 505 1,048 858 2,117 675 34 5 3,199 1,538 20.26 14.74 Financing of bDusehold implements, vehicles, etc. _ - 26 10 1,049 36 1,075 46 - - 37 114 3,681 89 3,718 103 23.554 0.98

TOTAL 457 419 3,160 324 1,117 2,013 4,734 2,756 1,152 1,099 10,766 1,523 3,874 7,816 15,792 10,438 100 100

Percentage 9.65 15.19 66.75 11.77 23.60 73.04 100 100 7.30 10.53 68.17 14.59 24.53 74.88 100 100

/1 From 5 to 12 y ars

2 From 12 months to 5 years a Up to 12 months

Source: Chad Development Bank. Table- 26: CnAb

CHAD DEVELOPIENT BANK SUBSCRIPTIONS TO SHARE CAPITAL OF ENTERPRISES

Tb December 31, 1966

(in millions of CFAF)

Amount Enterprise Subscribed

Societe Cooperative de Comptabilite Mecano- graphique (SOCOMEC) 1.0 O

Banque Tchadienne de Credit et de Depots (BTCD) 25.50

Societe Hoteliere du Tchad (SHT) 26.24

Societe I'Urbanization du Tchad (SUT) 3.h2

Union Africaine et Malagache de Banques Pour le Developpement (UAIV3D) 9.87L2

Societe D'Etudes de la Conventerie du Nord Cameroun 2.00

Societe Postes de la Radio 15.00

Tchad Tourisme 7.5o

Air Tchad

Total 92.18

L Dropped after Jan. 1, 1966.

2 No program of activity; additional contributions to show capital of about CFAF 90 million not paid.

Source: Chad Development Bank. Table 27: CHAD

EXPENDITURES OF PROJECT AID FROM FRANCE (FAC)

(in CFAF million)

1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 Sector Amount Amount Amount % Amount % AmounF- , Amount ,

53.5 Production - Total 278.4 32.9 254.7 40.6 200.5 22.0 268.9 42.1 331.1 36.8 434.2

Agriculture 254.9 30.1 221.8 35.4 136.1 14.9 133.3 20.9 266.9 29.7 139.3 17.2 Livestock 2.5 0.3 7.2 1.1 11.8 1.3 29.8 4.7 0.3 - 0.2 - Rural wells 6.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 - 0.2 - - - 101.6 12.4 Fishing, forests parks, tourism 14.3 1.7 25.3 4.0 13.0 1.5 15.7 2.4 8.0 0.9 4.5 0.5 Industry ------3.4 0.4 6.2 185.2 22.8 Power _ - - - 39.3 4.3 89.9 14.1 55.9

Social equipment- Total 148.0 17.4 185.o 29.5 409.5 44.8 135.5 21.3 117.0 13.0 96.2 11.9

Education 54.5 6.4 120.2 19.2 331.6 36.3 84.3 13.2 94.6 10.5 78.2 9.6 Health 93.5 11.0 64.8 10.3 77.9 8.5 51.2 8.1 22.4 2.5 18.0 2.2 23.3 68.4 8.4 Infrastructure - Total 329.8 38.9 98.4 15.7 69.8 7.6 63.7 10.1 209.5

Roads 168.2 19.8 36.6 5.8 17.6 1.9 10.4 1.6 23.5 2.6 13.0 1.6 Air infrastructure 0.5 - 20.1 3.2 12.9 1.4 12.4 2.0 117.6 13.1 24.2 3.0 Telecommunications 15.7 1.9 5.0 o.8 25.2 2.8 11.3 1.8 6.7 0.7 7.5 0.9 Urban development 145.4 17.2 36.7 5.9 14.1 1.5 29.6 4.7 61.7 6.9 23.7 2.9

Studies 91.2 10.8 89.1 14.2 234.4 25.6 169.0 26.5 242.0 26.9 212.? 26.2

Grand Total 847.4 100.0 627.2 100.0 914.2 100.0 637.1 100.0 899.6 100.0 811.0 100.0

Source: FAC, Caisse Centrale and Ministry of Finance, Government of Chad. Table 28 CHAD

EXPENDITURES OF PROJECT AID FROM THE COMMON MARKET (FED)

(in CFAF million)

1961 1962 i263 1964 1965 1966 Sector AmounF- % Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount

Production - Total 334.2 48,.1 386.5 28.0 283.0 20.3 151.1 14.6 116.5 18.1 152.41 21.0

Agriculture ------77e0 11.9 96.4 13.3 Livestock - - 409 3.0 59.1 4.2 46.7 4.5 25.o 3.9 36.8 5.1 Rural wells 334.2 48.1 345.6 25.o 223.9 .6a1 104.4 10.1 14.5 2.3 19.2 2.6 Fishing, forests parks, tourism - - - _ ------Industry - - _ _ Power -

Social equipment - Total 304,9 43.9 701.2 50.6 694.0 49.8 183.5 17.8 71.1 11.0 4.1 o.6 Edu tion 51.2 7.4 198.6 14.3 38.7 2.8 101.4 9.8 64.1 9.9 3.6 0.5 Health 253.7 36.5 502.6 36.3 655.3 47.0 82.1 8.0 7.0 1.1 0.5 0.1

Infrastructure - Total 53.3 7.7 278.2 20.1 396.6 28.4 627.7 60.9 433.5 67.3 569.6 78.4 Roads - - 90.8 6.6 269.2 19.3 614.4 59.6 405.9 63.0 504.0 69.4 Air infrastructure ------Telecommunications - - - - ______Urban development 53.3 7.7 187.4 13.5 127.4 9.1 13.3 1.3 27.6 4.3 65.6 9.0

Studies 2.2 0.3 17.8 1.3 21.0 1.5 68.6 6.7 23.5 3.6 - -

Grand Total 694.6 100.0 1,383.7 100.0 1,394.6 100.00 1,030.9 100.0 644.6 100.0 726.1 100.0

Source: FED and Ministry of Finance, Government of Chad. Table 29: CHAD

INVESTMENT,PROGRAM OF FIVEFYEAR PLAN BY SECTOR

Amount in millions of Sector CFA francs Percent

Productive 20,500 43.6

Agriculture, livestock, fishing and forestry 13,329 28.4

Industry, power, mining and handicrafts 6,640& 14.1 Tburism 531 1.1 Infrastructure 15,818 33.7 Railways 485 1.0 Roads 12,552 26.7

Water tralsport 538 1.1 Air transport 879 1.9

Post, Telecommunications and Radio 1,364 2.9

Social Overheads 10,694 22.7 Education and training 5,091 10.8

Health and Social welfare 1,663 3.5

Urban Development 3, 7 20L1 7.9

Cultural Affairs 220 0.5 Total 47 012 100.0

Note: Totals do not add due to rounding.

/1 Investment in power totaling CFAF 1,723 million is included under Industry (CFAF 949 million) and Urban Development (CFAF 774 million) equivalent to 3.6% of total investment.

Source: First Five Year Plan (1966-70).

Table 29a: CHAD FORECAST OF ANNUAL EXPENDITURES BY SECTOR FIRST FIVE YEAR PLAN (1966-1970)

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Total

Agriculture 1,756 3,195 3,714 2,675 1,989 13,329

Transport and Communications 1,594 3,390 4,410 3,195 2,639 15,228

Education and Training 500 699 1,672 975 1,2h6 5,092

Public Health and Social Welfare 373 649 331 180 130 1,663

Broadcasting 137 116 57 37 242 589

Housing and Urban Developmentid 402 661 672 989 996 3,720

Industry, Mining and Handicraft Al1,809 1,238 803 2,053 737 6,61o

Thurism 31 24 100 176 200 531

Commerce - -

Studies and Research 30 86 58 30 16 220

Total 6,632 10,058 I 1,817 1O0310 8,194 7,012

A Including CFAF 774 million for private power

2 Including CFAF 9h9 million for industrial power

Source: First Five Year Plan (1966-70). Table 29b: CHAD

AGRICULTURAL PRO0DJCTION TARGETS OF THE FIRST FIVE YEAR PLAN COMPARED WITH PAST PRODUCTIONn Annual Average 1970 Increase Rate of 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1961-65 Target Over 1965 Increase (in thousands of tons) in percent Millet and Sorghum 770.0 715.0 900.0 896.0 805.0 817.2 1,148.0 42.6 7.4 Paddy 22.0 23.0 25.2 25.0 25.0 24.0 32.4 29.6 5.4 Wheat 2.0 2.8 2.2 2.6 3.8 2.7 12.5 228.9 27.0 Corn 9.0 9.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 10.8 25.o 108.3 15.8 Groundnuts (unshelled) 110.0 140.0 112.0 127.0 140.0 125.8 180.0 28.6 5.2 Beans 30.0 40.0 35.0 50. 25.0 4.6 Peas 20.0 20.0 20.0 27,0 35.0 6.2 Manioc, etc. 50.0 50.0 60.0 20.0 3.7 Potatoes - 1.5

Seed Cotton 97.9 46.7 94.3 104.9 96.9 88.2 155i0 59.9 9.9 Cotton Fiber 34.5 17.1 34.6 38.1 35.6 32,0 57:0±' 60.1 9.9 Sugar Cane - - - - - 180.0

Fish (fresh) 100-0 110.0 O.I Fish (dried) .0 29.0 11.5 2.2 Gum Arabica o.8 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.8 2.0 150o0 20.0 (in thousands) Cattle population 4,000.0 4,300.0 7.5 1.5 Sheep and goat population 4,000.0 4,650.0 16.3 3.1 Hides (slaughterhouse production) 35.0 60.0 71.4 11.4 Skins (slaughterhouse production) 15.0 60.0 300.0 25.0 Hides (local production) 165.0 180.0 9.0 1.7 Skins (local production) 980.0 1,000.0 2.0 0.4

1/ Assuming a ginning yield of 36,870.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Government of Chad and First Five Year Plan (1966-70). Table 29d: CHAD

VALUE OF LOCAL PRODUCTION OF PRINCIPAL RAW AND PROCESSED FOODSTUFFS

(in millions of CFA Francs)

Plan Percent Growth Target Actual 1961-65 Projected 1965-70 1961 1962 1963 1965 1970 Total Annual Total Annual

Millet and sorghum 8,300 8,650 9,750 8,800 12,250 6.0 1.5 39.2 6.8 Wheat 57 54 46 96 278 68.4 13.9 189.6 23.7 Corn 190 190 190 190 385 0.0 0.0 102.6 15.2 Paddy 316 301 316 264 455 -16.5 - 3.5 72.3 11.5 Manioc and root crops 1,046 1,124 1,197 1,189 1,489 13.7 3.3 25.2 4.6 Fruit and vegetables 1,091 1,112 1,137 1,188 1,688 8.9 2.2 42.1 7.3 Groundnuts and other oil crops Li 1,328 1,476 1,372 1,372 1,766 3.3 o.8 28.7 5.2 Cattle 3,199 3,118 3,186 3,054 3,509 - 4.5 - 1.1 14.9 2.8 Sheep and goats 1,255 1,255 1,322 1,142 1,182 - 9.0 - 2.2 3.5 0.7 Other 117 154 160 184 444 57.3 12.0 141.3 19.3

Sub-total 16,899 17,434 18,676 17,479 23,446 3.5 0.9 34.1 6.o

Rice 707 664 692 544 706 -23.1 -5.3 29.8 5.l Bread 461 504 592 610 675 32.3 7.2 10.7 2.1 Meat (including game) 2,153 2,414 2,302 2,572 3,342 19.5 4.6 29.9 5.4 Fresh fish 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,000L2 3,850 -11.8 -2.8 28.3 5.1 Dried fish 1,540 1,540 1,540 1,560 1,680 1.3 0.3 7.7 1.5 Milk and milk products 2,440 2,440 2,440 2,585 3,100 5.9 1.4 19.9 3.7 Alcoholic drinks 5,o60 5,280 5,940 6,020 9,318 19.0 4.5 5h.8 9.1 Other products 233 288 272 272 277 16.7 3.9 1.8 0.4

Sub-total 15,994 162530 17,178 17,163 22,948 7.3 1.8 33.7 6.o

Grand total 32,893 33,964 35,854 34642 394 5.5 1.3 33.9 6.0

Sources: "Comptes Economiques", 1961, 1962 and 1963 and First Five Year Plan, 1966-70. Note: The table provides data on principal food commodities including commercial margins. 1 Excluding cotton seed ~2 Decline due to fall in price Table 30: CMAD ESTIMATED SOURCES OF FINANCING FOR FIRST FIVE YEAR PLAN (in millions of CPA Francs)

Carryover from Committed Under Study Interim Program or or Source of Financing Total Plan 1964-65 Assured Discussion Balance

Grand Total 47,012A 5L500 11,925 9,220 20,367

Public Sector 13 520380 9,751 9 367 Bilateral Aid 5,490 4,337 6,446 FAC (1,630) (1,056) (1,470) FED (3,370) (2,827) (4,049) West Germany ( 490) -- __ Taiwan -- ( 446) -- Great Britain '_ ( 26) -- United States 35,277/2 __ ( 32) ( 927) 15,937

Multilateral Aid __ 233 2,774

World Bank __ __ (2,293) World Food Program __ ( 175) UNDP -- l 33) ( 374)I FAO and CGNF -- -- (102) ILO -- ( 25)

Chad Public Sources 9,561 10 5,131 -- 4430

Current Budget (2,702) -- (2,702)/23 -- Investment Budget (4,430) ( 10) (4,430) National Loan ( 87) -- ( 87) __ __ Other Domestic Borrowing (1,342) __ (1,342) - Local Investment in Labor and Kind (1,000) -- (1,000) __ __ Private Sector 2,174 -- 2,174 __ __

Domestic (farmers) 543 -- 543 __ __ Foreign 1,234 __ 1,284 -- -- Suppliers credits 347 -- 347 /1 Does not include cotton support by CEE. Including CFAF 15,937 million in bilateral and multilateral aid for which no discussions of finnnciny are under.uay. E Current costs of development projects for research and productivity projects in cotton and livestock. Source: First Five Year Plan (1966-67) Table 31: CHAD VALUE OF LOCAL PRODUCTIO1N OF GOODS AND SERVICES 1 1958-65 Compared with Plan Target for 1970 (in millions of CFA Francs) Annual. Growth Rate % Plan Target 1958 1961 1962 1963 1965 1970 1958-65 1961-65 1965-70 Animal and Vegetable Products 14,916 16,714 18,169 18,547 18,500 24,000 3.1 3.3 5.3

Food products (semi-processed/2 13,145 15,266 15,625 16,634 16,975 24,788 3.7 2.7 7.9 Power 464 681 719 781 1,040 2,280 12.2 11.2 17.0

Raw and semi-finished material/3 4,747 4,960 3,390 4,663 5,298 7,627 1.6 1.7 7.6

Industry - Total 394 869 1,198 1,440 1,588 4,270 22.0 16.3 22.0 Electrical & mechanical ( 94) (366) (596) (768) (768) (910) (35.0)(20.0) ( 3.5) Textiles (100) (120) (120) (120) (120) (2,360) ( 2.6) (0) (84.0) Other (200) (383) (482) (552) (700) (1,000) (19.6)(16.3) ( 7.4) Buildings and Public Works 4,793 4,284 4,993 5,201 7,267 8,330 6.1 14.1 2.8

Private Services 4,032 5,519 5,882 6,374 7,190 10,000 8.6 6.8 6.8 Total local production 42,491 48,293 49,976 53,640 57,858 81,295 Net adjustment A -6,329 -5,541 -4,289 -6,353 -4,482 -10,392

Gross Domestic Production 36,162 42,752 45,687 47,287 53,376 70,903 5.7 5.7 5.8 Government services 3,443 4,113 4,526 4,860 5,600 7,700 7.2 8.0 6.6 Domestic services (households) 244 386 408 432 - - 8.5/E -

Gross Domestic Product 39,849 47,251 50,621 52,579 58,979 78,603 5.8 5.7 5.9

Monetary Sector 23,608 24,404 26,877 27,490 31,027 42,461 6 . 2 /6 6. 2 6.5 Monetary Sector (%) 59.2 51.6 53.1 52.3 52.6 54.0 /1 Note reconciliation with GDP data 7 Meat, rice. flour, cereal, fish, milk products and beverages, 7'.i~4nly rawf and ginned cotton 77 Plus C-m r. Ial margins on local goods minus intermediate consumption of local goods. 1958-63 1961-65 Souirces: "Comptes Economi.ques ", 1958, 1961, 1962, 1963 and First Five Year Plan (19660-70). Table 32: CHAD

OUTPUT, YIELDS AND VALUE OF COTTON PRODUCTION (1960/6i - 1966/67)

Estimate Items Unit 1i60/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/61 1964/65 19L66 1966/67

Arcea (Ha) 288,126 298,245- 338,897 282,204 288,278 296,196 299,87 /1

Seed cotton production (Metric tons) 97,864 46,685 94,266 104, 9Dl 96,876 86,876 122,8,•.6 2

Average yield (kg./ha) 339.6 156.5 278.1 371.7 336.0 293.1 409.7

Ginning yield (Percent) 35.76 36.70 36.69 36.28 36.79 36.77 36.3

Fiber production (Metric tons) 34,996 17,133 34,586 38,056 35,641 31,943 145,000

Sale price per kg. (fiber4 .- (CFAF) 1l6.20 147.45 138.85 142.00 136.50 129.50 129.00

Total value (Fiber) (CFAF million) 5,116.4 2,526.3 4,802.3 5,403.9 4,865.0 4,136.6 5,805.0

Sources: Mlnistry of Agriculture and the Caisse de Stabilisation du Prix du Coton

/1 Estimates by the Caisse de Stabilisation du Prix du Coton.

12 Actual output reported in the Chad Statistical Bulletin, No. 154, April, 1967

/3 FOB west African port. Table 32a: CHAD

PRODUCTIOIN AND AVERAGE YIELDS OF SEED (OTTON (1947/4d-1966/67)

Moving Annual Four Year Crop Area Production Average Average Year (Ha) (It tons) Yield Yield ,Kig. /lia Kg./Ha. 1L947-48 156,800 37,800 241 43-49 158,640 44,200 263 49-50 178,650 53,100 296 50-51 165,700 60,330 247 262 51-52 206,590 60,330 293 275 52-53 212,720 57,380 270 277 53-54 215,320 57,925 269 270 54-55 222,980 71,315 320 288 55-56 231,510 69,640 301 290 56-57 231,420 63,500 274 291 57-58 229,940 80,470 350 211 58-59 238,270 65,900 277 301 59-60 259,610 39,670 153 266 60-61 288,130 97,864 340 280 61-62 298,245 46,685 157 232 62-63 338,892 94,260 278 232 63-64 282,304 104,901 372 237 64-65 288,278 96,876 336 286 65-66 296,196 86,896 293 320 66-67 299,875 122,856 410 353

,Sources: Ministry of Agriculture and Caisse de Stabilisation du Prix dua oton Table 32b: CHAD

BREAKDOWN OF COTTON COSTS (F.O.B.) (in CFAF per kilogram) Percent Change

1960/61 - 19M767 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 Total Annual rate (in CFAF per kilogram) COTONFRAN Costs

Cost at farm 61.35 60.38 56.42 58.43 55.13 51.89 50.91 - 17.0 - 3.1

Fixed costs 19.01 45.34 26.08 22.97 24.00 28.30 21.80 + 14.7 + 2.3

Variable costs 31.98 38.10 30.44 34.09 35.27 33.98 29.47 - 7.8 - 1.3

Export duties 17.12 17.07 17.10 17.51 17.20 17.20 17.30 + 1.0 + 0.2

Remuneration on campaign 4.24 2.24 2.75 2.87 1.79 0.09 2.90 - 31.6 - 6.2

Sub-Total 133.70 163.13 132.79 135.87 133.39 131.46 122.40 - 8.5 - 1.6

Government Sabsic' to Farmer 17.05 23.16 21.73 17.41 15.55 18.78 18.80 +10.3 + 1.7

Total 150.75 186.29 154.52 153.28 148.94 150.24 141.20 - 6.3 1.2 (in percent of total) COTONFRAN Costs

Cost at fam 40.7 32.4 36.5 38.1 37.0 34.6 36.1

Fixed costs 12.6 24.3 16.9 15.0 16.1 18.9 15.4

Variable costs 21.2 20.5 19.7 22.2 23.7 22.6 20.9

Export duties 11.4 9.2 11.1 11.4 11.5 11.4 12.3

Remuneration on campaign 2.8 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.2 2 2.1

Sub-Total 88.7 87.6 85.9 88.6 89.6 87.5 86.7

oovernment 9ubsidy to farmer 11.3 12.4 14.1 11.4 10.4 12.5 13.3

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10.0 100.0 100.0

L Preliminary estimate based upon an estimated crop of 117,669 tons of seed cotton and 43,890 tons of cotton fiber.

11 Less than 0.05% Sources: See Table 32A. Table 32c: CHAD

COMPONENTS OF COST OF COTTON (1965-66)

Item CFAF/Kg. % of Total

COTONFfAN Costs

Cost at farm 51.89 34.6

Fixed costs 28.30 18.9

Variable costs 33.98 22.6

Internal transport 7.27 ( 4h8)

Seed cotton (5.59)

Cotton fiber i (1.68)

External transport 14.49 ( 9.7)

Cotton fiber - by road (6.71)

Cotton fiber - other (7.78)

Other variable costs 12.22 (8.1)

Customs duties 17.20 11.4

GOTONFRAN remuneration 0.09 1 Sub-total 131.46 87.5

Government Subsidy to Farmer 18.78 12.5

Total 150.24 100.0

l Est.imated at 20% of total transport by road to Bangui or Garoua

2 Less than 0.05%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Caisse de Stabilisation du Prix du Goton. Table 32d: CHAD

CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS OF COTONFRAN

(in millions of CFA Francs) Preliminary/

Estimate 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67

Total Receipts (F.O.B.) 5,116 2,526 4,802 5,404 4,865 4,137 5,662 Expenditures 3,931 2,464 3,906 4,391 4,077 3,646 4,486 Cost of seed cotton 2,147 1,034 1,951 2,220 1,965 1,657 2,235 Cost of Transport, ginning and marketing 1,784 1,430 1,955 2,171 2,112 1,989 2,251 Gross Profit before taxes 1,185 62 896 1,012 788 489 1,176 Export duties 599 292 591 666 613 549 759 Gross Profit After Taxes 586 -230 305 346 175 - 60 417 Less CSPC share 05 -259 160 218 69 - 63 271 Net Profit 181 29 1414 128 106 3 146 Export commission 71 74 70 74 69 65 78 Share of cotton earnings 110 -45 74 5h 37 -62 68 Capital n.a. 742 742 742 742 742 742 Capital and Reserves n.a. 817 863 882 906 936 n.a. Earning Ratios

Return on Capital (%) n.a. 3.85 19.41 17.32 14.30 0.39 19.62 Return on Capital and Reserves (%) n.a. 3.50 16.73 14.57 11.71 0.31 n.a.

Source: Caise de Stablilisation du Prix du Coton. Note: Totals do not always add due to rounding.

Ll Based upon an estimated crop of 117,669 tons rather than latest production estimate of 122,856 tons of seed cotton. Table 32e' CHAD

RAW COTTON ANNUAL TARGETS IN FIVE-YEAR PLAN

Year Area (Ha2 Yield (Kgs) Production(Tons)

1965-66

Special Program Areas 15,000 900 13,500 Trad:itional Areas 282, 500 350 98, 500

Tota:L 297,500 376 112,000

1966-67

Special Program Areas 20,000 1,000 20,000 Traditional Areas 28L, 700 360 102, 500

Tota:L 304700_ 402 122,500

1967-68

Special Program Areas 25,000 1,000 25,000 Traditional Areas 287,300 375 108,000

Total 312,300 426 133,000

1968-69

Special Program Areas 30,000 1,100 33,000 Traditional Areas 290,000 390 113,000

Tota:L 320-000 456 lh6,000

1969-70

Special Program Areas 35,000 1,100 38,000 Traditional Areas 293,000 tSOO 117,000

Tota-l 328,ooo 472 155,000

Solurce: First Five Year Plan (1966-70). Table 32f :CHAD

TRENDS OF COTTOII PRICES AND FAR14 INCON4E CONTPARED WI7H COST OF LIVING

Item Unit 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67

Cotton Fiber Sales Price (F.O.B.) West Africa Port (CFAF/Kg.) 146.20 1477.45 138.85 142.00 136.0 129.50 129.00

Seed Cotton Price to Farmer (CFCF/Kg.) 28.04 30.66 28.67 27.45 26.00 26.00 26.00

Gross Cotton Income at Farm (Millions of CFAF) 2,745,00 1,L31.00 2,703.00 2,882.00 2,519.00 2,257.00 3,19h.00

Incdices 1960-61 = 100

Cotton Fiber Sales Price (F.O.B.) 100.00 100.9 95.0 97.1 93.4 88.6 88.2

Seed Cotton Price to Farmer 100.00 109.3 102.2 97.9 92.9 92.9 92.7

Gross Cotton Income at Farm 100.00 52.1 98.5 105.0 91.8 82.2 116.4

Retail Prices (Fort Lary) 100.00 10i.2 106.8 111.0 123.7 128.8 137.3

Sources: Caisse de Stabilisation du Prix du Coton and Chad Statistical Bulletin Table 33: CHAD

CATTLE, SHEEP & GOAT POPULATION, AINNUAL OFFTAKE, SLAUGHTER AND LIVE EXPORTS

(Numbers of heads)

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

Cattle

Total population 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,oo0,000 4,070,000 4,500,o0o

Total offtake 303,000 300,000 308,800 320,700 328,500 36o,5oo 390,500

Slaughter 122,000 119,000 153,800 157,200 165,000 220,000 220,000 (Qf which controlled) (66,436) (77,036) (70,741) (60,054) (61,161) (62,940) (64,612)

Export on the hoof 181,000 181,000 155,000 163,500 163,500 140,500 170,500 (of which controlled) (67,766) (66,116) (71,217) (85,587) (70,951) (77,745) (101,910~

Sheep and Goats

Total population 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,150,000 4,150,000

Total offtake 929,000 884,500 931,000 979,500 889,000 1,002,000 n.a.

Slaughter 829,000 757,50 809,000 857,500 767,000 380,000 n.a. (of which controlled) (64,652) (61,797) (67,671) (77,736) (75,468) (85,060) n.a.

Export on the hoof 100,000 97,000 122,000 122,000 122,000 122,000 n.a. (of which controlled) (26,291) (22,519) (28,385) (21,643) (21,272) 26,525 24,736

Source: R4publique du Tchad, Direction de l'6levage, Rapport Annuel 1964 and Statistiques 1965, and Chad Monthly Statistical Bulletins. Table 33a: CHAND

LIVESTOCK POPULATIOIN BY PREFECTURE - 1966

Sheep and Prefecture Cattle Goats IIorses Camels Donkeys Pigs

Chari Baguirrni OO,000 800,000 25,000 3,000 60,000 1,300 Kanem 1,100,000 800,000 20,000 60,000 70,000 100

Lac 270,000 100,000 5,000 2,000 10,000 _

Batha 900,000 800,000 20,000 110,000 50,000

Ouaaddal 550,000 250,000 20,000 30,000 50,000 350

Biltine 300,000 300,000 15,000 4O,000 35,000

BET 30,000 120,000 2,000 110,000 300 -

Gu6ra 150,000 60,000 10,000 200 10,000 50

Salamat 80,000 50,000 3,000 50 6,0oo 50

Mayo Kebbi 220,00 500,000 15,000 - 10,000 2,000

Logone/1 5o,0oo 250,000 15, ooo 1,500 1,000

Moyen Chari 50,000 120,000 3,000 500 100

Total 1°66 h,500,000 4,150,000 153,000 355,250 303,300 5,000

Source: Direction Elevage Service Statistique L Total prefectures of' Tandjil6/Logone-East - Logone-West. Table 33b: CMid)

MEAT PRODUCTION AT CONITTROLLED SLAUGHTERHOUSESZI

1960 1961 1962 1963 196)4 1965 1966 In Thousands of Heads)

Animals Slaughtered

Fort Laniy - Total 55.7 63.3 60.6 66.7 70.5 72.2 61.5 Cattle 34 .3 36.0 32.0 34.4 37.0 38.0 36.1 Sheep and Goats 19.8 23.7 26.5 31.7 30.1 30.9 21.4 Other 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.- 3.3 4.0 Fort Archambault - Total 5.4 7.3 6.6 5.6 6.2 6.5 7.5 Cattle 4.6 5.7 4.3 3.4 3.9 4.6 6.4 Sheep and Goats 0.8 1.5 2.1 1.4 1.3 1.0 o.8 Other - 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 Chad - Total 61.1 70.6 67.2 74.3 76.7 78.7 69.4 Cattle 38.9 43.7 36.3 38.8 40.9 42.6 42.5 Sheep and Goats 20.6 25.2 28.6 33.1 31.1h 31.9 22.2 Other 1.6 1.7 2.3 3.4 4.ht 4.2 h.7

(In Metric Tons) Meat Production

Fort Lamy - Total 6,6)42 6517 6,383 oL5O 7,313 ___63 7,077 Cattle 6,103 6,335 5,694 6,169 6,532 6,761 6,hoh Sheep and Goats 307 425 1l 6 56h, 509 539 376 Other 152 157 193 217 272 263 297 Fort Archaimbault - Total 713 879 688 563 637 750 1 aLl Ca-ttle 673 8RJh 6)45 520 590 706 1,0o6 Sheep and Goats 14 hi 38 38 32 23 Other 26 10 2 5 12 12 Chad - Total 7,35i 7,796 7,071 7,513 7 ?22J2C ,1]3 Cavttle 6,776 7,179 6,33' ,6M9 7,122 7, i Sheep and Goats tal h5o 537 602 4h7 o71 3)9 Otheir 175 10)7 1)5 222 2231 273 aO09 Source: Chad Monthly Stritiistics Bulletir., June(? 1967, No .156

/1 Fort T Lany alid Fort tirchantbault providedc about 305 or' tot2l meat output frorl Goverriiient controlleid si -Lurtl; r, '-iVu :;- Table 31,: CIAD

PRODUCTION AND "ALE OF ELECTRIC PJER/

(In 1,000 KWl)

Delivered S O L DI Year Production to GRILD Total LowJ Tension High Tensioin

1i56 2,6l66 -_- 2,220 1,6675 545

1957 3,589 3,4L42 3,130 2,231 89?

1S)56 4(,698 4L,517

1959 6,02lh 6,83 3 5,252 3,756 1,496

1960 7,687 7,)75 6,65d 4,,8 97 1,761

;961 8,905 8,664 7,782 5,472 2,310

1962 11,119 10,793 9,633 6,55L 3,079

1963 13,625) 13,30" 11,791 7,637 L,S15

196)4 1,704 15,369 13,741 8,872 4,869

1965 17,72b, 17,310 15,379 9,533 5,B46

1966 21,540 20,988 17,653 11,089 6,564

Annual Gro,.Jth Rate 1961-19)66 19.3 19.)4 17.8 15.2 23.3

Source: Chad Monthly Statiistica1 Dulletin, December 19?66, Nio.150

/ For the Fort Lcrn2r, Abeche, al-d Ioundou. nower stations; Aheche opened in .1963 .,nd Moundou in 1 16h. Table 35: C-ALD MAJOR LA1D ROUTES TO CHAD FOR RIPORTS AND EXPORTS

Means of Transport Total and Distance Nearest M4ajor Distance (In km.) Port Via Center in Chad (In Ian.) Rail River Road

Pointe Noire, Brazzaville, Moundou or 2,450 515 1,300 635 Congo (B) Congo (B) and Ft. Archambault Bangui, C.A.R.

Port Harcourt, Maiduguri, Nigeria Ft. Larmy 1,705 1,455 250 Nigeria

Lagos, Nigeria Maiduguri, Nigeria Ft. Lamy 2,0h0 1,790 250

Burutu, Nigeria Garoua, Cameroon Moundou 1,980 1,550 430

Douala, Yaounde, Garoua, Ft. Lamy 1,775 155 1,620 Cameroon Cameroon

Port Sudan, Nyala, Sudan Abeche 2,660 2,090 570 Sudan Doula, Cameroon/l Yaounde, Ngaoundere, Moundou 1,310 938 372 Cameroon

/1_ This is a proposed route after the rail link to Ngaoundere is completed.

Source: Ministry of Planning and Transport, Government of Chad.

Table 35a: CHAD

NUMBER OF REGISTERED VEHICLES BY TYPE

(in numbers)

1962 1965

Motorcycles & Scooters 653 320

Private Automobiles 1,678 2,321

Busses 58 75

Commerical Vehicles 247 273

Trucks 4,944 3,942

Special Vehicles 60 88

Transport (48) (30) Other (12) (58)

Tractors 106 125

Towing vehicles 198 218

Total 7,362

Source: Service de la Statistique Gengrale Table 35b: CHAD ROAD TRAFFIC MOVEMINTS 1960-66 In Thousand of Metric Tons TRASfTC VIA 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

NIGERIA - Total n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 51.9 44.7

Entering CHAD 42.3 36.1 60.0 48.9 49.7 47.2 39.2

Departing CHAD n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a, n.a. 4.7 5.5

C.A.R. - Total 61.0 75.6 75.7 85.7 94.0 n.a. 85.2

Entering CHAD 41.8 46.o 54.5 53.0 58.8 n.a. 56.9

Departing CHAD 19.2 29.6 21.2 32.7 35.2 n.a. 28.3

CAMEROON - Total 12.1 20.6 16.1 20.9 n.a. n.a. 23.9

Ehtering CHAD 8.2 9.0 10.6 11.9 n.a. n.a. 13.9

Departing CHAD 3.9 11.6 5.6 9.0 n.a. n.a. 10.0

Source: Monthly Statistical Bulletin and BCEOM Transport Study Table 35c: GHAD

AIR TRANSPORT MOVEMENTS (1960-66)

Percent Increase 1960-66 Unit 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 Total Annual

Planes Numbers 5,295 5,859 5,102 5,710 6,031 5,891 7,189 21.4 3.3

Passengers - Total Numbers 47,650 51,891 53,828 59,526 82,480 65,954 75,231 57.9 7.9

Arrivals Numbers 22,818 24,476 26,266 30,325 42,185 31,351 37,163 63.0 8.5 Departures Numbers 24,832 27,415 27,562 29,201 40,295 34,603 38,068 53.3 7.4

Freight - Total Metric Tons 14,645 13,787 11,609 11,510 13,922 12,848 15,974 9.1 1.5

Arrivals Metric Tons 7,030 6,726 5,631 5,538 6,847 6,099 7,766 10.5 1.7 Departures Metric Tons 7,615 7,061 5,978 5,972 7,075 6,749 8,208 7.9 1.3

Mail Metric Tons 215 576 218 254 361 253 369 71.6 9.4

Source: Ministry of Economr and Transport

Note: From 1960-63 data covers airports at Fort Lamy, Fort Archambault and Moundou; from 1964-66 Abeche, Ebngor, Largeau and Pala airports are added. Table 36, CHAD

IONEMARY SUtRVEY

(In billions of CFA francs at end of year)

Mar. June 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 19i5 1966 1i67 1967

Foreig Assets (net) 2.86 1.62 2.25 2.74 2.80 2.58 L2 -0.145 0.89

Domestic Credit 2.67 19 3,97 L2 L9 4.96 6.8h 8.82 8.1hL

Clains on public sector (net) -0.2 0.04 -o.o6 -0.89 -1.08 -0.69 0.19 0.75 0.76 Claims on private sector 2.69 4.15 4.03 4.91 5.37 5.65 6.65 8.07 7.68

Assets = Liabilities %52 5.81 6.22 L7 Z7 40 8.27 7.56

-one. 5.61 5.83 A 5s 6.53 L5 63 7.31 6.I1l Currency outside banks 4.20 4.18 4.39 h.66 5.00 4.94 4.64 5.41k b.hh Commercial banks' deposits 1.08 1.33 1.31 1.71 1.37 1.52 1.59 1.7i.) 1.80 Postal checking system 0.03 0.10 0.13 0.i6 0.16 0.13 0.14 0.17 0.17 Other ------

Quasi -one 0.0o5 0.05 0.12 0.03 0.07 0 0.17 0.27

Other items (net)- 0.17 0.15 0.28 0.1 0.49 0.7-3 o.86 o.88 0.88

'Note: Totals of assets and liabiliti es do not always add due to roundin,.

Source: International Financial Statistics, Vol. XXI, No. 1, Jan.,1968. IP-1.1- '3 17 I 11 T A n- CONSOLIDATED ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF COMMERCIAL AND DEVELOPMENT BANTKS 1960-67

(In billions of CFA francs at end of period)

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1967 March June Sept. Dec. March June Sept. Dec. Mlarch June Assets Reserves with Central Bank .11 .15 .04 .10 .02 .05 .08 .05 .05 .11 .0h .04 .07 .05 .05 Foreign Assets .12 .23 .07 .28 .02 .09 .10 .11 .16 *04 .13 .11 .03 .o6 .12 Claims on Government - - - .01 .08 .12 .14 .15 .15 .15 .14 .14 .14 .17 .15 Claims on private sector 2.69 4.15 4.03 4.91 5.37 6.43 6.20 5.32 5.65 7.19 6.58 5.37 6.65 8.07 7.68 Assets= Liabilities 2.92 4.53 4.14 5.30 5.19 6.69 6.52 5.63 6.01 7.49 6.89 5.66 6.89 8.35 8.00

Liabilities Demand deposits 1.08 1.33 1.31 1.71 1.37 1.51 1.58 1.57 1.52 1.73 1.68 1.67 1.59 1.70 1.80 Time and savings deposits .05 .05 .12 .03 .07 .07 .17 .20 .22 - .23 .23 .20 .18 .17 .27 Government deposits - - .10 .35 .12 .12 .19 .17 .17 .18 .20 .11 .13 .13 .16 Foreign liabilities .28 .50 .27 .29 .89 .80 .66 .76 .89 .90 1.13 1.07 1.32 1.16 1.17 Capital accounts .20 .22 .41 .50 .59 .65 .89 .91 .90 .97 .96 .96 .97 .98 1.00 Credit from Central Bank 1.36 2.41 2.10 2.57 2.57 3.69 3.13 2.17 2.49 3.71 2.95 1.87 2.84 4.36 3.78 Other items(net)-.05 .02 -. 17 -. 15 -. 12 -. 15 -. 10 -. 15 -. 18 -. 23 -. 26 -. 22 -. 14 -. 15 -. 18

Source: International Financial Statistics, Vol. XXI, No. 1, Jan., 1968. Table 38: CHAD

ESTIMATED GLOBAL BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

(In billions of CFA Francs)

1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

Imports 9.57 10.99 11.08 13.04 11.65 12.38

Exports 7.64 8.26 8.37 8.o8 9.21 8.23

Trade Balance - 1.93 - 2.73 - 2.71 4.o6 - 2.44 - 4.15

Private Services Net - 1.96 - 2.01 - 2.10 - 2.46 - 2.19 - 2.30

Public Transfers 3.55 L.00 453 3.21 2.88 2.96

Net Current Balance - 0.34 - 0.74 - 0.28 - 3.31 - 1.75 - 3.49

Public Capital Transactions 0.38 0.11 o.56 0.30 0.39 o.51

Private Capital Transactions 1.16 1.93 1.84 0.77 0.74 1.00

Net Current Balance and - 1.98 Capital Transactions 1.20 1.30 2.12 - 2.24t - 0.62

Mlonetary Movements (increase -)Z& 1.24 - 0.63 - 0.49 - 0.06 0.22 2.06

Errors and orissions - 2.44 - o.67 - 1.63 2.30 0.40 - 0.08

/ International Financial Statistics, I.M.F. Table 39:, CHAD

BALANCE OF PAIMENTS WITH COUNTRIES OUTSIDE THE FRENCH FRANC AREA l960-6 Z- (in millions of CFA Francs)

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 196

A. Goods and Services -1,911 -1,753 -1,666 - 892 -1,371 - 634

Exports f.o.b. 805 1,120 1,710 2,335 2,615 3,376 Imports c.i.f. -,2700 -2,915 -3,305 -3,095 -3,935 -3.805

Trade balance -1,895 -1,795 -1,595 - 760 -1,320 - 429

T'ransport and insurance receipts 5 125 20 31 10 23 Travel (net) -1 14 6 - 48 - 50 - 108 Investment income (net) -4 - 13 4h - 15 - 27 - 31 Government, not included elsevhere (net) -2 - 36 - 3 - 18 72 - 22 Other services (net) - 14 - 48 -90 - 82 - 56 - 68

B. 'Transfer payments 35 799 1,382 1,457 1,030 1,181

Private% credit 46 48 83 55 85 161 Privatet debit - 17 - 20 -28 37 85 - 97 Official: (net) 6 771 L,327L- 1,439L2 1 , 03N0 2 1 117 2

Total A + B -1,76 -954 -284 566 -340 546

C. *Long-term capital 1 1 2 -215 26 14

'Privates credit 1 1 2 39 59 16 Privatet debit ------69 - 33 - 2 Official: (net) ------184/3 -- --

Total A + B + C -1,875 - 953 -282 351 -314 560

Sources Comite Mcnetaire de la Zone Franc, La Zone Franc (annual), Paris and IDF sowrces. Notes Figures do not add due to rounding.

/ Positive figures are credits; negative figures are debits. The trade data are custom returns; the other data are mainly on a payments basis.

2 Mainly grants from the European Development Fund.

/ Mainly foreign exchange subscriptions to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Development Association. The figure in La Zone Franc includes the gold subscription to the International Monetary Fund, which we oonaider as a monetary transaction. Table 40: CHAD ESTIMATED BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES ACCOUNT, 1960 - 1966

(In millions of CFA Francs)

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 IMPORTS World (Excluding UDEAC countries) 6,253 7,508 7,167 8,537 7,705 7,962 UDEAC 2 3 2,440 2,241 3,92VL Clandestine 13 3,316 3,485 3,909 2,o62 1.704 500 Total goods 9,569 10,993 1,7076 13,039 11,650 12,

Services A X 2,089 2,196 2,300 2.4°5E Total goods and services 11,607 13,082 13,272 15,617 13,950 14,788

EXPORTS World (Excluding UDEAC countries) 5,292 4,178 5,605 6,544 6,722 5,848 UDEAC ( 2 349 245 298 994 1,077 611 . Clandestine (_'840 2469 1W4 0 1 06 14769 Total goods 7,641 8,63 8,372 8,978 9,205 8228

Services A 80 100 116 110 104 Total goods and serviees 7,716 8,343 72 9,094 9,315 -8-332

BALANCE World (Excluding UDEAC countries) - 961 -3,330 -1,562 -1,993 - 983 -2,114 UDEAC (- 967 ( 600 (-1142 -1,446 -1,164 -3,310 Clandestine ( ( (-- - 622 - 298 1,269 Total goods -1,928 -2,730 -2,704 _4017 '-2,445 -4,155

Services -1,963 -2,009 -2 096 -2 462 -2 190 -2 01 Total goods and services -3,891 -4,739 -4,800 -6,523 -4,635 -b,7

L Including reexports of CFAF 837 million by UDEAC countries of goods originating outside the customs union reported in the Statistical Bulletin for Chad, Feb.1967. 2 Estimate provided by UDEAC Statistical Office, Brazzaville.3 Estimate of combined clandestine and UDE trade is from National accounts for 1961,62, 63, ad 65. Clandestine is residual when UDE trade figures are also available. L From national accounts except for 1964 and 1966 which are mission estimates.L5 Mission estimate. /6 Including CFAF 150 million of reexports. ources: Commerce Exterieur, UDE, Statistiques Generales, 1960-65; Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Chad, Feb. 1967; National accounts 1961-1963, Five-year Plan 1966-70, Government of Chad. Table 41: CHAD RECORDED J'TPORTS BY COMIMODITY GROUPS, 1960-66 /

(value in millions of CFA francs)

Zxroups 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966/2

Food 1,331 1,174 1,321 1,260 1,336 1,077 1,112

Primary Materials 54 40 53 36 62 104 156

Fuel and lubricants 749 669 1,080 1,112 1,190 1,578 1,278

Semi-finished products 958 974 1,219 979 1,208 909 978

Conswner durables 777 946 1,004 1,016 1,148 965 1,091

Consumer non-durables 1,141 1,124 1,199 1,279 1,820 1,531 1,583

Equipment 1,225 1,326 1,635 10485 1,773 1,541 1.76.

TOTAL 6,235 6,253 7,511 7,167 8,537 7,705 7,962

(percentage of imports)

Food 21.3 18.8 17.6 17.6 15.7 1I4.0 14.0

Primary materials 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.3 2.0

Fuel and lubricants 12.0 10.7' 14.4 15.5 13.9 20.5 16.0

Semi-finished products 15.4 15.6 16.2 13.7 14.2 11.8 12.3

ConsuLrer durables 12.5 15.1 13.4 14.2 13.4 12.5 13.7

Consumer non-durables 18.3 18.0 15.9 17.8 21.3 19.9 19.9

Equipment 19.6 21.2 21.8 20.7 20.8 20.0 22.1

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Note: Totals do not always add due to rounding. 5 Excludizng imports from the Customs Union(UDE) countries /2 Etimate oources: Commerce Exterieur, UDE, Statistiques Generales, 1960-65 and Bulletin Mensuel de Statistique, Chad, Feb. 1967. Table 2: CHAD /1 RECORDED DhPORTS OF PRINCIPAL CONMODITIES, 1960-66 /

(value in millions of CFAF)

Commodity 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

Dairy products and eggs 81.5 80.1 90.4 111.3 116.9 93.9 98.0 Tea 249.0 264.8 180.9 136.5 189.8 160.1 171.7 Wheat flour 111.0 118.5 132.0 164.2 129.3 16.9 32.0 Alcoholic beverages 346.9 220.4 350.0 318.7 370.4 252.9 233.0 Cement 2'3.4 234.9 370.5 101.1 176.7 128.4 155.7 Gasoline and gas oil 624.8 568.4 881.1 894.6 922.6 1,267.2 940.6 Drugs 86.8 84.7 129.8 73.9 121.1 175.9 261.3 Tires and tubes 84.2 95.2 108.2 138.3 113.5 136.0 115.2 Cotton textiles 480.9 525.8 371.5 471.4 748.6 597.9 633.1 Clothes and shoes 227.1 261.7 280.0 302.1 385.6 307.8 229.5 Iron and steel manufacturers 402.1 415.9 480.5 492.9 603.9 391.0 293.8 Autos and trucks 482.5 630.9 732.2 533.8 441.8 522.7 603.3 Others 2,834.5 2,751.3 3.400.7 3,428.3 4,217.1 3.654.3 4,195.1

TOTAL 6,234.7 6,252.6 7,507.8 7,167.1 8,537.3 7,705.0 7,962.3

(percentage of value)

Dairy products and eggs i.3 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 Tea 4.0 4.2 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.2 Wheat flour 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.5 0.2 0.4 Alcoholic beverages 5.6 3.5 4.7 4.4 4.3 3.3 2.9 Cement 3.6 3.8 4.9 1.4 2.1 1.7 2.0 Gasoline and gas oil 10.0 9.1 11.7 12.5 10.8 16.4 11.8 Drugs 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.0 1.4 2.3 3.3 Tires and tubes 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.8 1.4 Cotton textiles 7.7 8.4 5.0 6.6 8.8 7.7 7.9 Clothes and shoes 3.6 4.2 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.0 2.9 Iron and steel manufacturers 6.4 6.6 654 6.9 7.1 5.1 3.7 Autos and trucks 7.7 10.1 9.8 7.5 5.2 6.8 7.6 Others 455 44. 47.8 49.4 47.4 52.7 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 /1 Excluding imports from the Customs Union(UDE) countries. Source: Commerce Exterieur, UDE, Statistiques Generales, 1960-65. rbleiL,?:e UaD (Cnt u W) A RECORDED IMPORTS OF PRINCIPAL COMMODITIES, 1960-66 -

(quantity in metric tons)

Commodity 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

Dairy products and eggs 262 301 369 519 419 330 394

Tea 1,062 1,153 863 671 1,008 820 923

Wheat flour 1,929 2,099 2,576 3,157 2,708 454 580

Alcoholic beverages 4,507 2,071 3,688 3,175 4,685 3,349 2,393

Cement 11,335 11,509 19,901 9,323 12,290 6,438 7,686

Gasoline and gas oil 16,668 17,226 29,599 28,376 31,842 32,099 22,399

Drugs 81 78 138 63 113 199 224

Tires and tubes 228 243 273 446 300 316 266

Cotton textiles 912 922 727 824 1,203 924 993

Clothes and shoes 284 365 438 418 509 361 270

Iron and steel manufacturers 5,019 5,487 6,713 6,415 7,388 4,050 4,585

Autos and trucks 1,349 1,724 1,964 1,310 1,044 1,-195 2,118

Others 16,963 15,848 24,097 22,911 30,079 26,956 24,287

TOTAL 60,599 59,026 91,346 77,608 93,588 77,491 67,118

1 Exluding imports from the Customs Union (UDE) countries. 4ource: Commerce Exterieur UDE, Statistiques Generales, 1960-65

Table 43: CHAD ORIGINt OF HECORDED IMPORTSLa. 1960-66

(value in million of CFAF)

Origin 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

France 3,266.8 3,278.7 3,955.5 3,804.3 4,202.0 3,579.7 3,921.9 Common Market (excl. France) 753.2 734.o 791.5 733.3 1,117.8 834.0 841.2 Other African Countries 755.1 575.6 746.3 675.3 838.3 650.9 471.4jL (excl. UDEAC)

Others 1 459.6 1,664.3 2,014.5 1.954.2 2,379.2 2s640.4 26727.8

TOTAL 6,234.7 6,252.6 7,5C7.8 7,167.1 8,537.3 7,705.0 7,962.3

(percentage of recorded imports)

France 52.4 52.4 52.7 53.1 49.2 46.4 49.3 Common Market (excl. France) 12.1 11.8 10.6 10.2 13.1 10.8 10.6 Other African Countries 12.4 9.2 9.9 9.4 9.8 8.5 5.9 (excl. UDEAC)

Others 23.1 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.5 34.3 34.2

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 lC0.0

/1 Excluding imports from the Customs Union (lIDE) countries /2 Excluding imports from Cameroon, who became a member of the UDE in 1966 .5ources: Comnerce Exterieur, UDE, Otatistiqi:es Generales, 1960-65 and 3ulletin Nensuel de Statistique, Cnad, Feb. 1967. Table 44: C-3{D DIPORTS BY COMIMODITY GROUPS FROM UDEAC COUNTRIES, 1964-1966

(Quantity in metric tons; value in millions of CFA francs)

1964 1965 1966L3 Q V Q V Q V

Food - of which: 18,629.0 1 804.0 14,366.3 i,437.2 21,453.6 1 7836 Sugar 15,924.0 1,584.2 12,283.3 1,272.0 18,121.9 1,534.5 Tea 148.0 52.3 Beer ( 925.6 75.3 1,400.7 114.1 Non-alcoholic beverages ( 1,708.0 128.8 267.4 11.9 346.0 16.5 Coffee 91.0 36.o 90.0 38.0 226.0 33.2 Fruit 464.o 40.0 360.0 30.0 Other food 442.0 15.0 440.0 10.0 1,211.0 33.0

Primary materials - of which: 6 062.0 91.0 6,400.0 100.0 5633.4 09.9 Wood 6,02.0 91.0 6,400.0 100.0 5,294.0 79.4 Others 339.4 30.5

Fuels - of which: 180.0 13.0 250.0 18.0 119.0 7.3 Oils 180.0 13.0 250.0 _18. 119.0 7.3

Consumer non-durables 1,161.o 515.3 1,284.7 659.9 2,840.1 1,033.0 of which: Soap 538.0 41.3 601.3 45.6 1,765.5 140.5 Cigarettes 163.0 299.4 221.2 389.1 245.3 433.0 Cotton cloth ( 332.7 184.o 442.3 236.7 Clothing and shoes ( 418.0 169.9 33.7 25.6 204.9 193.3 Others 42.0 4.7 95.8 15.6 182.1 29.5

M4anufactured goods - of which: 19.0 16.8 44.6 18.1 2 2 Motorcycles and bikes ( 19.4 12.7 56.1 36.2 Metal manufactures ( 19.0 16.8 25.2 5.4 242.1 53.0

Other L2 7.4 711.7 61.4

Total 26,050.0 2 4140.1 22,380.9 2,240.6 31,056.0 3,084.4

See footnotes at end of table Source: UDEAC Statistical Office, Brazzaville, Congo. Table 4h: CHAD (cant'd.) I1PORTS BY COMMODITY GIROUPS FROM UDEAC COUNTRIES, 1964-1966

(Percentage distribution of value)

1964 1965 1966

Food - of which: 739 6.2 7.8 Sugar 64.9 56.8 49-7 Tea 1.7 Beer ( 3.4 3.7 Non-alcoholic beverages ( 5.3 0.5 °.5 Coffee 1.5 1.7 1.1 Fruit 1.6 1.3 Other food 0.6 0.4 1.1

Primary materials-of which: it 4.5 3.6 Wood 3.7 7 2 Others 1.0

Fuels - of which: o.80.5 0.2 Oils 0. 07 0.2

Consumer non-durables - of which: 21.2 29.4 33_ Soap 1.7 2.0 4.6 Cigarettes 12.3 17.4 14.0 Cotton cloth ( 8.2 7.7 Clothing and shoes ( 7.0 1.1 6.3 Others 0.2 0.7 0.9

Manufactured goods - of which: 0.7 o.8 2.9 Motorcycles and bikes ( 7 1.2 Metal manufactures ( 0.7 0.2 1.7

Other 0.3 20

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0

Note: Subtotals do not always add due to rounding. A The "Union Douaniere Equatoriale" was expanded to include Cameroon from Jan. 1, 1966, when it was renamed the "Union Douaniere et Economique de l'Afrique Centrale". 2 Primarily composed of consumer durables and other manufactured goods./3 Including imports from Cameroon. Sources: UDEAC Statistics Office, Brazzaville, and Chad, Bulletin MensuerVde Statistique, Fort Lamy, Feb.,1967.

Table 15: CHAD A RECORDED EXPORTS BY COMMODITY GROUPS, 1960-66-

(value in millions of CFA francs)

jroups 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 Food 796 704 772 948 806 928

Primary materials 36 27 36 57 47 63 2 Fuel and lubricants/ . 99 38 161 26 167 238 Sem-finished products 2,267 4,468 3,069 4,458 5,325 5,336

Consumer durables 3 5 11 8 16 7 Consumer non-durables 54 41 66 92 159 126 Equipment 16 9 43 16 24 24

TOTAL 3;271 5,292 4,178 5,605 6,544 6,722

(percentage of exports)

Food 24.3 13.3 18.5 16.9 12.3 13.8

Primary materials 1.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.9

Fuel and lubricant /2_ 3.0 0.7 3.8 0.5 2.6 3.5

Sem-finished products 69.3 84.4 73.9 79.5 81.4 79.4

Consumer durables 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1

Consumer non-durables 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.7 2.4 1.9

Equipment 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.4

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

/l Excluding exports to the Customs Union (UDE) countries. L2 Composed primarily of re-exports.

Source: Commerce Exterieur, UDE, Statistiques Generale&, 1960-65. Table 46: CHAD RECORDED EXPORTS OF PRINCIPALM0ODITIES, 1960-66 /1

(value in millions of CFA francs)

Commodity 196o 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 Live animals 419.9 297.3 422.8 594.1 466.5 608.1 691.4 Fresh meat 200.3 324.8 187.3 183.0 141.8 210.2 217.6 Fresh fish 53.9 29.6 36.7 35.9 31.3 24.6 11.3 Hides and 215.5 228.4 199.6 142.5 141.0 121.6 115.6 skins Cotton 2,049.1 4,238.4 2,886.0 4,313.5 5,173.0 5,206.8 4,508.6 Gum Arabic 44.2 20.7 52.0 23.3 37.4 30.4 65.0 Ground nuts 43.8 10.9 31.4 54.1 90.5 7.3 3.4 Oil cakes 4.5 9.3 20.2 20.6 22.9 14.1 22.0 Dates 3.5 3.9 12.3 24.0 7.9 3.0 9.6 Natron 35.8 22.1 35.9 57.0 46.6 63.3 43.5 Others 200.4 107.1 293.7 157.3 385.2 33.1 160.1

TOTAL 3,270.9 5,292.5 4,177.9 5,605.3 6,544.1 6,722.5 5,848.1

(percentage of value)

Live animals 12.8 5.6 10.1 10.6 7.1 9.0 11.8 Fresh meat 6.1 6.1 4.5 3.3 2.2 3.1 3.7 Fresh fish 1.7 0.6 0.9 o.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 Hides and 6.6 4.3 4.8 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.0 skins Cotton 62.6 80.1 69.1 77.0 79.0 77.4 77.1 Gum Arabic 1.4 0.4 1.2 0.4 o.6 0.5 1.1 Ground nuts 1.3 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 Oil cakes 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 Dates 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 - 0.2 Natron 1.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.7 Others 6.1 2.0 7.0 2.8 5.9 6.5 2.7

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100D0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

A Excluding exports to the Customs Union (UDE) countries.

Source: Commerce Exterieur, UDE, Statistiques Generales, 1960-65. Table bL6: CHAD (cont'd.) RECORDED EXPORTS OF PRINCIPAL COMMODITIES, 196o-66/A

(quantity in metric tons)

Corrmodity 1960 1961 1962 1963 196L 1965 1966 Live animals 27,119 18,181 22,390 3L,661 23,923 28,511h n.a.

Fresh meat 2,721 3,492 2,59L 1,815 1,511 2,073 1,807 Fresh fish 958 352 Iol 333 271 232 121 Hides & skins 983 896 722 631 586 611 601 Cotton 1h,505 30,126 20,678 31,361 37,651 38,016 32,670 Gum Arabic 598 330 1,089 h89 775 5 81 1,201 Groundnuts 975 310 677 1,778 2,575 275 127

Oilcakes 287 7b5 1,953 1,576 1,613 1,039 1,900 D.tes 192 258 351 601 207 80 2h9 Natron 14,OLi9 24,56 14,050 6,5l, 6,271 3,985 Others _ 1,7bO 3,719 1,233 5,087 6,826 n.a. TOTAL 55,199 59,186 58,627 80,892 79,553 8L4,521 7 ,,°2.L

/1 Excluding exports to the Customs Union (UD7,) countries. /2 Estimated total. 7ource: Commerce TExterieur, UDE, Statistiques Generales, 1960-65

Table h7:CHAD DESTINATION OF RECORDED YYPOPrTI, 1960-66

(value in million of CFA francs)

Destination 1960 1961 1962 196 1964 1965 1966 France 2,263.2 3,963.8 2,062.6 3,092.3 3,597.1 3,040.1 2,856.3 Common Market (excl. France) 92.9 293.5 443.5 687.5 687.1 532.8 378.1 Other African Countries 901.0 821.6 1,032.5 1,127.0 1,100.7 1,340.6 1,254.6 / (excl. UDEAC)

Others 13.8 213.6 639.3 698.5 1,159.2 1,809.0 1,359.1 TOTAL (excl. UDEAC) 3,270.9 5,292.5 4,177.9 5,605.3 6,544.1 6,722.5 5,848.1

(percentage of value of exports) France 69.2 74.9 49.4 55.2 55.0 45.2 48.8 Common Market (excl. France) 2.8 5.6 10.6 12.3 10.5 7.9 6.5 Other African Countries 27.6 15.5 24.7 20.1 16.8 20.0 21.5 (excl. UDEAC)

Others 0.4 4.0 15.3 12.4 17.7 26.9 23.2

TOTAL (excl. UDEAC) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

A Excluding exports to the Customs Union (UDE) countries L2 Excluding exports to Cameroon who became a member of the UDE in 1966. bources: Commerce Exterieur, UDE, Statistiques Generales, 1960-65 and Bulletin Mensuel de Statistique, Chad, Feb. 1967. Table 46 CHAD 61 EXPORTS BY COiMhODITY GROUPS AM FRITTIPAL COIUODITIES TO UDEAC COUNTRIES, 1962-1966

(Quantity in metric tons; value in millions CFA francs)

1962_2 1963/L 1964 1965 1966 a Q V Q V Q V Q V Q V Food 2,623.0 245.3 3,177.0 297.8 16,405.4 932.5 18,369.0 1,012.4 5,659.2 398.9 of which: Hleat 2,609.0 243.5 3,167.0 296.5 3,669.3 347.0 3,342.0 319.0 3,506.7 342.3 Live animals n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8,712.1 222.0 11,020.0 332.0 1,806.6 33.6 Fish 14.0 1.8 10.0 1.3 4,024.0 363.5 4,007.0 361.4 385.9 23.0 Equipment - - - n.a. 2.7 n.a. 3 o.6 of which: 3-0 Radio receivers - - -7 n,a. 2.7 n.a. 3.8 0.6 3.0 Others - - - - 4,000.0 583 4,001.0 60.6 1.206.8 58.6 Total 9 2,623.0 245.3 3,727.0 297.8 20,405. 993.5 22,370.0 1,076.8 6,L906.6 460.5

(Percentage distribution of value) Food 100.0 100.0 93.8 94.0 86.6 of which: Meat 99.3 99.6 34.9 29.6 74.3 Live animals _ _ 22.3 30.8 7.3 Fish 0.7 0.4 36.6 33.6 5.0 Equipment _ _ 0.3 0.4 0.7 of which: Radio receivers _.3 0.4 0.7 Others _ 5.9 5.6 12.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

g The "Union Douani!re _quatoriale" was expanded to include Cameroon from Jan. 1, 1966 whlen it was renamed the "Union Douaniere et Economique de l'Afrique Centrale". /2 Ž-cluding exports to Central African Republic w/hich are unavailable. /3 Including exports to Cameroon. Sources: TJD2AC Statistics Office, Brazzavile, and Bulletin i4ensuel de Statistique, Fort Lamy, Feb. 1967. Table h91- . CHAD EXPORTS BY DESTINATION AND IMPORTS BY ORIUIN TO UDEAC COUNTRIES, 1962 - 1966

(Quantity in metric tons; value in millions of CFA Francs)

1,°62 'g _ _19 1964 1965 1966 EXPORTS BY Q V Q V Q V Q V Q V DESTINATION Congo 2,306.0 214.3 2,646.0 245.8 2,833.2 263.3 2,304.0 213.8 1,405.6 138.3 Central African Republic 16,908.0 664.8 19,131.0 771.3 3,545.6 129.1 Gabon 317.0 31.0 531.0 52.0 664.2 65.4 Cameroonl 935.0 91.7 1,325.3 161.8 1,325.3 1 Total 2 2097 93 22,370. 01,076X8 66_____ IMPORTS BY ORIGIN Congo 16,667.0 1,929.6 13,255.7 1,738.0 19,807.9 2,096.1 Central African RepuJlic 9,384.o 510.5 9,125.2 502.6 5,980.2 606.4 GabonI. 2,837.0 28.3 Cameroon a_ 2.430.9 353.6 Total _2,051.0 2,440.1 22,380.9 2,240.6 31 056.0_ 3,044A 1

(Percentage distribution of value) EXPORTS BY DESTINATION Congo 87.4 82.5 26.5 19.8 30.0 Central African Republic 67.0 71.6 28.0 Gabon 12.6 17.5 6.5 8.6 35.2 Cameroon a____ 6.8 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 IMPORTS BY ORIGIN Congo 79.1 77.6 68.0 Central African Rtepulic 20.9 22.4 19.7 GabonL 0 Cameroon 13 11.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0

I Excluding Centrai African Rep. which was unavailable. /2Chad had no imports from Gabon in 1964-65. /3 Including trade with Cameroon who joined the UDE in 1966. /4 Excluding reexports of CFAF 150 iiillion. L5 Excluding reexports from UDEAC countries of CFAF 837 million. Source: UDEAC Statistics Office, Brazzaville and Chad, Bulletin Mensuel de Statistique. Fort Lamy, Feb.1967. Table 50: CHAD

TECHNICAL AND VOCATIONAL EDUCATION ENROLL I4T 1966-1967

Numbers &Erolled

1. Lyc6e Technique Commercial, Fort Lamy-

Junior courses 109 Senior courses 17

2. Lycee Technique Industriel, Fort Archambault-

Junior Courses 68 Senior Courses O0

3. Ecole Nationale diAdministration 57

4. Ecole Nationale de Travaux Publics 32

5. Ecole Nationale de T6l6communications 23

6. Animal Husbandry (Farcha) 21

7. Agriculture (Ba-Illi) 184 o. Nursing 106

Total 657

Source: Bank Education Appraisal Mission Draft Report. Table 51: CHAD

PRIMARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT INDEX BY DISTRICT AND SEX

(1966-1967)

DISTRICT P e r c e n t Boys Girls Total

Logone Occidental 99 23.8 61.4

Logone Oriental 96.1 20.7 58•.

Moyen Chari 87.1 23.0 55.0

Tandjile 70 11.1 0.5

Mayo-Kebbi 51.5 6.4 28.9

Ghera 48.7 8.6 28.7

Ghari-Baguirmi 30.6 14.7 22.6

Salamat 22.1 7.1 14.6

B.E.T. 10.8 1.8 6.3

Kanem 8.4 2.2 5.3

Batha 6.1 1.5 3.3

Ouaddai 5.7 1.9 3.8

Lao 5•5 1.6 3.5

Biltine 4.7 1.0 2.8

Tbtal 45o. 11.0 28.0

A Including overage students

Source: Biank Education Appraisal Mission Draft Report. Table 5 2: CILD

SCHOOL AGE POPULATION

(1960-1980)

thousands C 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1975 1980

5 83.5 85.3 87.1 89.G ,1.1 93.2 95.3 97.5 99.8 102.3 1014.7 116.3 131.6 6 81.4 82.9 84.6 86.3 88.2 90.1 92.1 94.2 96.5 98.7 101.2 113.0 127.6 7 79.4 80.8 82.3 83.9 85.6 87.4 89.3 91.3 93.3 95.6 97.9 109.9 123.8 8 77.5 78.8 80.2 81.7 83.3 84.9 86.7 88.6 90.6 92.6 94.9 106.9 120.2 9 75.7 76.9 78.2 79.6 81.1 82.6 84.3 86.1 88.0 90.0 92.1 103.9 116.8 Total (5 to 9) 397.5 404.7 412.4 420.5 429.3 438.2 447.7 457.7 468.2 479.2 490.8 550.0 620.0 10 74.7 75.0 76.2 77.5 79.0 80.4 82.1 83.8 85.6 87.5 89.5 101.0 113.5 11 72.3 73.3 74.4 75.6 77.0 78.4 79.9 81.6 83.3 85.1 87.0 98.2 110.2 12 70.5 71.6 72.7 73.8 75.0 76.4 77.9 79.3 81.0 82.8 84.6 95.3 107.1 13 68.9 69.9 71.0 72.1 73.2 74.5 75.8 77.3 78.8 80.5 82.3 92.6 104.1 1i4 67.4 68.3 69.2 70.4 71.5 72.7 73.9 75.3 76.8 78.3 80.0 89.9 101.1

Total (10 to 14) 353.8 358.1 363.5 369.4 375.7 3 82. 389,6 397A )fle 4i1, 2 J2?.4 477.n 536 0 15 65.9 66.9 67.8 68.7 69.9 71.0 72.3 73.5 74.9 76.3 77.9 87.2 98.1 16- 64.5 65.4 66.4 67.4 68.3 69.4 70.5 71.9 73.1 74.5 75.8 84.5 95.2 17 53.2 64.0 64.9 64.9 66.9 67.9 69.0 70.0 71.4 72.5 73.8 81.9 92.5 18 61.9 62.6 63.4 64.4 65.4 66.4 67.5 68.5 69.5 70.8 71.8 79.4 89.9 19 60.6 61.4 62.2 63.0 63.9 65.o 65.9 67.0 68.o 69.0 70.2 77.0 87.3

Total (15 to 19) 3o6.1 320.3 324.7 328.4 334.4 339.7 345.2 350.9 356.9 363.1 369.5 410.0 463.0 Grand Total (5-19) 1,057.4 1,083.1 1,100.6 1,118.3 1,139.4 1,160.3 1,182.5 1,205.9 1,230.6 1,256.5 1-28.18 1,437.0 1,619.0

Source: Bank Education Appraisal Mission Draft Report. Table 53: CHIAD

PUBLIC GE ERAI SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLLMIEIT

19)47-1967

School Year

1947-48 74 74 74 1948-49 4)4 29 73 73 1949-50 32 15 47 47 195o-51 42 28 7 77 77 1951-52 57 28 24 7 116 116 1952-53 49 43 24 22 138 138 1953-54 57 44 34 29 164 164 1954-55 77 55 39 42 213 213 1955-56 105 66 59 33 263 18 18 281 1956-57 134 82 51 40 307 6 15 21 328 1957-58 186 118 78 51 433 14 15 29 462 1958-59 349 174 1114 73 710 20 23 43 753 1959-60 386 316 116 103 971 33 20 53 1,024 1960-61 391 355 267 159 1,172 58 23 3 84 1,256 1961-62 532 406 351 280 1,569 51 49 10 110 1,679 1962-63 1,070 516 382 342 2,310 143 55 15 213 2,523 1963-64 1,332 1,045 577 436 3,390 1)45 98 19 262 3,652 1964-65 1,452 1,102 827 470 3,851 155 117 50 322 4,173 1965-66 1,773 1,390 1,013 725 4,901 177 122 46 345 5,246 1966-67 2,860 1,809 1,345• 1,061 7,075 301 89 91 481 7,556

1970-71 (projected) 2,330 2,100 1,930 2,03• 8,395 608 572 450 1,630 10,915

Source: Bank Education Appraisal Mission Draft Report. Table 54: CHAD

T2CNI G,'AL A,SSISTAITCE BEIING PROVIDED TO CIAD I-1- 67 BY SOURCE AND TYPE,

Oource and Type mber

G.Tovernment of France - Total 6 i

Education (teachers) 292 Health 72 Public W4Forlcs 57 Post and Telecommurnications 3 Agricu lture 30 .Justice 16 ilitary 16 Livestock 13 'freasury 13 Forestry and W,"ater 9 Rural 7Wori_s 9 r anniance 7

'ies I Social assistance 6 Cadaster 6 Imports 6 Police 5 Presidency staff 4 Sconomy 4 lPlanningh Police school 4 ATEC (roads) 3 Government Secretariat staff 2 Labor 2 Interior 2 Literacy 2 Journalism 2 Anti-birds 2 Statistics 2 SP cotton 1 Foreign affairs 1 Public service 1

U.S. Government - Total 33

School health center 5 Public works program 2 Public safety program 2 Measles/smallpox 2 Peacecorps - total 27 Pu0blic Health (13) Agricultural Extension ( 8) Secorndary school teachers ( 6) Table 54: CHAD

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE BEING PROVIDED TO CHAD IN 1967 (Continued)

United Nations - Total IO

U.N. Technical assistance ILO 2 FAO wHIO 2 UiESCO 2 relecomm 2 Post 1

UN DP UJ1D'P 1 FAO 1 UNESCO 3

Regular Programs ILO 3 FAO Hydrology 1 VFWO 2

Other Programs ,-IFP/FAO 1 UIICEF/UNESCO 3 IdFP 1

Source: Ministry of Planning and Transport, Government of Chad.