BAYLOR BRIEFS 2012
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING UNITED STATES TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
by
RICH EDWARDS RYAN GALLOWAY
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING UNITED STATES TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
EDITORS
Rich Edwards, Ph.D. Professor of Communication Studies, Baylor University
Ryan Galloway, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Communication Studies, Samford University
BAYLOR BRIEFS
P.O. BOX 20243 WACO, TEXAS 76702 Phone: (254) 848-5959 Fax: (254) 848-4473 On the Web: www.baylorbriefs.com Email: [email protected]
© 2012
TABLE OF CONTENTS CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS …………………………....….…..... 1 AFFIRMATIVE CASES AND BRIEFS National Infrastructure Bank: Financing America’s Future ………….………………………. 5 Road Ecology: Transportation Infrastructure Should Respect Wildlife ...... 10 High-Speed Rail: Getting Back on Track ...... 13 NextGen: Bringing Air Traffic Control Into the 21st Century ...... 16 Transit: Equity in Transportation Infrastructure Investment ...... 19 Fix-It-First: Getting Serious About Highway Maintenance ...... 22 Inland Waterways: Investing to Protect America’s Farmers ...... 25 Port Security: Confronting the Threat from Nuclear Terrorism ...... 27 Safe Routes to School: Facilitating a Walking Lifestyle ...... 30 Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure: Moving Beyond the Oil Era ...... 33 Other Thoughts: Transportation Infrastructure in Indian Country ...... 36 FIRST NEGATIVE BRIEFS Transportation Infrastructure Is Adequate Supported at Present ...... 37 Transportation Infrastructure Issues Should Be Left to State Governments ...... 38 Private Investment Is Preferable for Transportation Infrastructure ...... 40 Road Ecology ...... 41 Oil Resources Are Plentiful …...…………...... 42 The Advantages of High-Speed Rail Investment Are Exaggerated ...... 43 Problems With the U.S. System of Air Traffic Control Are Exaggerated ...... 44 Problems With NextGen Justify Caution in Adopting the System ...... 45 Public Transportation Already Receives Its Fair Share of Funding ...... 46 Highway Maintenance Is Primarily a State Government Responsibility ...... 48 Federal Programs Adequately Provide for Highway Maintenance ...... 49 Additional Federal Investment in Inland Waterways Is Unnecessary ...... 50 Building Bigger Locks and Dams Is Inadvisable ...... 51 Port Security ...... 52 Safe Routes to School ...... 54 Hydrogen Economy ...... 55 SECOND NEGATIVE BRIEFS Privatization Disadvantage ………………...………....……...... 57 Federalism Militarization ...... 60 Foreign Aid Trade-Off Disadvantage ...... 63 Russian Oil Disadvantage ……….………………...…...... 66 Deficit Disadvantage …...……….……...... 69 Politics Disadvantage ………...………………...... 71 INDEX TO EVIDENCE …………………………………………..………………………. 73 EVIDENCE ……………………………………………………….……………………...... 79 BAYLOR BRIEFS 1
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its transportation infrastructure investment in the United States. This resolution will stimulate discussion about the role of the federal government in providing funding for the nation’s highways, railroads, airports, seaports, and urban transit systems. The Obama administration has, since 2009, been pushing infrastructure investment as a means of creating jobs and bringing the U.S. economy back from recession. President Obama’s vision for transportation includes a shift in emphasis to provide more funding for high-speed rail, public transportation, and transportation enhancements such as pedestrian walkways and bicycle paths. Congress, especially the Republican-controlled House of Representative, wants transportation funding to focus more narrowly on traditional areas such as bridge and highway repair. These political differences have, so far, made it impossible for the federal government to pass a permanent extension to the nation’s transportation bill. Federal transportation spending has, since the early 1990s, been authorized through a series of 6-year transportation bills. The first of these, covering the period from 1992 to 1998, was the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA). The transportation bill for the years 1998 to 2004 was called the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21). The last six-year authorization for transportation infrastructure spending, the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), covered the period from 2005 to 2011. Though this transportation authorization expired in September of 2011, Congress and the President have so far been unable to agree upon a permanent replacement. Instead, transportation funding has been authorized by a series of short-term extensions to SAFETEA-LU. By the time the 2012-2013 debate season starts, Congress probably will have passed the next 6-year transportation bill. As of May, 2012, however, the two houses of Congress have been unable to agree on a permanent extension. Since the 2012-2013 debate topic calls for increased federal “investment,” it will be important to understand the various controversies related to current sources of federal transportation infrastructure investment. The following paragraphs are designed to provide some information concerning possible sources of funding for an affirmative plan. Federal funding for transportation infrastructure draws upon user fees in each of the transportation sectors. The federal gas tax is the primary source of funding for highway and public transportation funding. The current federal tax rate is 18.4 cents per gallon of gasoline, a rate that has remained unchanged since 1993. Each state government also funds its infrastructure spending from a tax on gasoline, ranging from a low of 8 cents per gallon in Alaska to 49 cents per gallon in New York. Similar tax rates also apply to diesel fuel. The federal government places most of the money from the gas tax into the federal Highway Trust Fund (HTF). But 15.5% of the federal gas tax goes into the Mass Transit Account (MTA), designed to fund public transportation in urban areas. Until recently, all federal highway spending was allocated from user fees deposited in the Federal Highway Trust Fund. Starting in 2008, the Highway Trust Fund began to have insufficient funds to cover the amount of federal highway spending; the shortages had to be funded from general federal revenues. In 2009, for example, federal spending on ground transportation was $53.6 billion, only $34.96 billion of which could be withdrawn from the Highway Trust Fund. Though a string of federal commissions have recommended that the federal gas tax be increased, the “no new taxes” mood of Congress has made any increase politically impossible. Federal aviation programs are funded primarily from a 7.5% federal airline tax on domestic airline tickets, taxes on jet fuel, charges for international departures and arrivals, and about a dozen other miscellaneous airport-related taxes. These user fees are deposited in the Airport and Airway Trust Fund. The federal government uses this trust fund to support the air traffic control and other regulatory functions of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The Transportation Security Agency (TSA) also receives about 80% of its funding from the Airport and Airway Trust Fund, with the remainder coming from general federal revenues. Federal programs for seaports and inland waterways are also funded through user fees. Commercial operators on inland waterways pay a fuel tax of 20 cents per gallon that goes into the Inland Waterways Trust Fund. Proceeds from this trust fund partially pay for the work of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as they maintain the locks and dams on the rivers that support barge traffic. The federal government also charges a tax of 0.125% on the cargo value for all goods being imported to the United States with the proceeds going into the Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund. This trust fund is used to fund U.S. Army Corps of Engineers projects to dredge and otherwise maintain harbors. The Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund is the only one of the federal government’s transportation-related trust funds currently running a surplus – the current balance in the fund is about $6 billion, with the amount increasing in each of the past several years (http://opencrs. com/document/R41042/). The heart of the Congressional controversy in the debate over the next permanent highway bill concerns dedicated funding for public transportation and transportation enhancements. As explained above, about 20% of federal highway taxes are placed in the Mass Transit Account rather than the Highway Trust Fund. Many Republican members of Congress believe that all of the proceeds from the gasoline tax should go for bridge and highway repair and maintenance. Yet an even greater controversy relates to the set-asides for “transportation enhancements.” The last permanent transportation bill (SAFETEA-LU) specified that 10% of surface transportation funds should be set aside for “transportation enhancements,” defined as one the following twelve types of activities: 1. Provision of facilities for pedestrians and bicycles. 2. Provision of safety and educational activities for pedestrians and bicyclists. 3. Acquisition of scenic easements and scenic or historic sites (including historic battlefields). 4. Scenic or historic highway programs (including the provision of tourist and welcome center facilities). 5. Landscaping and other scenic beautification. 6. Historic preservation. 2 BAYLOR BRIEFS 7. Rehabilitation and operation of historic transportation buildings, structures, or facilities (including historic railroad facilities and canals). 8. Preservation of abandoned railway corridors (including the conversion and use of the corridors for pedestrian or bicycle trails). 9. Inventory, control, and removal of outdoor advertising. 10. Archaeological planning and research. 11. Environmental mitigation to address water pollution due to highway runoff; or, reduce vehicle- caused wildlife mortality while maintaining habitat connectivity. 12. Establishment of transportation museums. (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/transportation_ enhancements/ In practice, almost half of transportation enhancement spending has gone toward building bicycle and pedestrian facilities. Many Republican members of Congress report being offended by the practice of charging motorists to fund bicycle paths, turtle crossings, and railroad museums. Most of the recent Republican-created transportation bills approved by the House of Representatives have proposed total elimination of the “transportation enhancement” set-asides. The Senate transportation bills have proposed keeping, or even increasing, the funding for public transportation and transportation enhancements. Yet another source of Congressional controversy has focused on “earmarks.” An earmark is language inserted into an appropriation bill directing funding for a particular group or project. Randal O’Toole, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, provided a history of this procedure in his 2009 book, Gridlock: Why We’re Stuck in Traffic and What to Do About It: “Congress did not earmark any transportation funds until the 1982 reauthorization, which included 10 earmarks. Since then, earmarks have grown exponentially to about 7,000 in 2005. Some are clearly not efficient because they are not even spent on transportation purposes. For example, about 30 earmarks in the 2005 reauthorization were for visitors' centers in various national parks and other public lands. A few of these were related to transportation, but many were not. Beyond this, earmarks are almost by definition not efficient, because if they were, they would be funded by an efficient planning system and no earmark would be necessary” (p. 211). The most notorious earmark was the so-called “Bridge to Nowhere,” specifying $223 million in federal funding to construct a bridge in Alaska between Ketchikan and Gravina Island. Earmarks had become such a common practice in federal appropriation bills that members of Congress began to think they were doing their home districts a disservice if they failed to request their share of specified funding. Senator John McCain made it a point of emphasis in his 2008 presidential campaign to call attention to the problem of earmarks. Public criticism and concern over the federal deficit has embarrassed members of Congress into banning earmarks, at least for legislation passed during the current session of Congress. Carl Hulse, writing in the February 27, 2011 issue of the New York Times, described this change: “The wall finally tumbled down this year when Mr. Boehner, installed as the new speaker, pushed a ban in the House and had the clout to make it stick. In the Senate, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, a rabid earmarker, finally took the cure. Then, under pressure from the White House, Senate Democrats agreed to a ban, though Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, did so grudgingly, arguing that it was the job of Congress to direct federal spending. Whether prohibition will last is anyone's guess. But with Congress now so focused on cutting spending, it is doubtful that the days of unbridled earmarking will return anytime soon” (p. A17). Though the resolution focuses on federal spending for transportation infrastructure, it will be important to remember that most infrastructure spending happens at the state and local level. Nathan Musick, an economist with the Congressional Budget Office, offers the following breakdown of state vs. federal spending in his 2010 report entitled, Public Spending on Transportation and Water Infrastructure: “Nearly all public spending for operating and maintaining transportation and water infrastructure takes place at the state and local level. Whereas state and local governments spent $172 billion for the operation and maintenance of infrastructure in 2007, the federal government spent just $24 billion. States and localities supplied almost 90 cents of every public dollar allocated for operating and maintaining facilities related to transportation and water infrastructure. States and localities have been the primary source of that spending for the past 50 years” (p. 11). Private corporations are also now getting into the business of investing in transportation infrastructure. The two most widely publicized examples are the recent sale of the Chicago Skyway and the Indiana Toll Road. The Chicago Skyway is an 8-mile-long stretch of tollway that connects the Indiana Toll Road with Chicago’s Dan Ryan Expressway. A group led by the Macquarie Infrastructure Group of Australia paid the city of Chicago $1.83 billion for a 99-year lease to operate the Skyway. The same group paid $3.8 billion to the State of Indiana for a 75-year lease to operate the Indiana Toll Road. The potential for private investment may be much higher. Bernard Schwartz, the CEO of BLS Investments, offers the following assessment in the 2009 book, Infrastructure: Rebuilding, Repairing, and Restructuring: “There is upwards of $400 billion available in the private sector right now for infrastructure investment. Likewise, even with today's bank credit and liquidity problems, there are literally trillions of dollars available for high-quality debt investments through both domestic and international markets. The amount of funds held by central banks, sovereign funds, and global pension funds is estimated to be approaching $30 trillion—and growing fast, U,S. public pension funds alone have more than $3 trillion in assets; moreover, they have a long-term investment outlook that is consistent with the stable returns that infrastructure assets generate” (p. 42). Affirmative teams will notice, however, that all of the current examples of private infrastructure investment deals with the leasing and operation of toll roads. It is understandable that private corporations would see the operation of a toll road as an opportunity to make money. It is less clear why private corporations would invest in highway maintenance, wildlife crossings, bicycle paths, or the many other affirmative cases illustrated in this volume.
STRATEGY IN SELECTING AN AFFIRMATIVE CASE The best advice is to find a problem about which you care deeply. On this topic, that problem could involve finding a solution to urban sprawl, oil depletion, or even global warming. Debaters are always more persuasive when they are advocating a position about which they are passionate. Before making a decision about your case, however, you should answer some of the questions in the following paragraphs. BAYLOR BRIEFS 3 Does your affirmative plan clearly do what the resolution says? You should be prepared to explain how your plan “substantially increases” the federal government’s investment in transportation infrastructure. Consult the final section of this Conceptual Framework for a discussion of the various terms in the resolution. Will your affirmative case have short-term advantages? A basic problem for affirmative teams is that it takes a long time to construct transportation infrastructure, especially when federal regulations are involved. Consider the following construction timeline offered by the Staff Report of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure: “According to the Highway Planning and Project Development Process timeline put together by the Federal Highway Administration, the Federal project delivery process can take up to 15 years from planning through construction. An analysis conducted by the National. Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Committee found that a $500 million project that took 14 years to complete would see its cost double due to the impact of delays and inflation” (Accelerating the Project Delivery Process, House Hearing, Feb. 15, 2011, p. ix). If the affirmative plan is adopted today, it may take 15 years before the piece of infrastructure is actually built. Often that means no affirmative advantage until 15 years from now. Unfortunately, the negative disadvantages may kick in immediately. Most negative disadvantages will focus on political perception or the deficit impact of increased spending. In short, the disadvantage impacts are short-term and the plan advantages are long-term. If the short-term effect of the plan is to cause an economic recession or depression, we may not be around to care very much what happens when the highway is actually built 15 years from now. To counter this time frame problem, the affirmative team needs to think creatively about choosing a plan capable of producing short-term as well as long-term advantages. Examples? The plan may begin creating jobs immediately, even though the road won’t actually be completed for a while. The plan’s funding mechanism (an increase in the gasoline tax, for example) may begin producing immediate dividends in promoting fuel efficiency and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Where will the money to fund your plan come from? The exploding federal deficit is the biggest “real world” constraint on expanding federal transportation infrastructure spending. It seems clear that the Obama administration would like to spend more money on transportation infrastructure, especially for high-speed rail and urban public transportation projects. President Obama has also proposed the creation of a national infrastructure bank capable of making loans to fund all sorts of infrastructure projects. Other than the short-term stimulus funding providing in 2009 with the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), Congress has been unwilling to authorize funding for these projects. While certain members of Congress question the merits of transportation projects, the greatest opposition arises from concern over the massive federal budget deficit. If the money for the plan comes from general federal revenues, then the affirmative team is just advocating making the federal deficit a bit larger. If the plan proposes an increase in user fees, then the question will be whether raising taxes is a good idea at a time the U.S. economy is trying to recover from recession. Some affirmative teams will propose taking money from the Department of Defense budget, recognizing that troops are being withdrawn from Afghanistan. President Obama himself suggests such a funding mechanism for his national infrastructure bank proposal. Yet negative teams can argue that decreases in the size of the U.S. military may be inadvisable at a time when a confrontation with Iran seems likely. Another possible funding source is the redirection of existing transportation funding from one area to another. A creative affirmative team might, for example, propose taking money away from highway construction and re-directing it to spending on public transportation or pedestrian walkways. Negative teams will claim that such a plan is nontopical in that it fails to propose a “net” increase in federal infrastructure investment. But the affirmative team will respond that “increase” can also be defined in qualitative terms. The quality of federal investment may substantially increase as result of de-emphasizing the automobile and focusing on urban quality of life. How would the adoption of your plan affect the public perception or electability of President Obama? Would adopting the plan increase or decrease the political capital at the President’s disposal? Would it increase or decrease the President’s chances for re-election in November (assuming you are debating early in the season)? The “politics” disadvantage is an argument commonly used in policy debate. Some negative teams will argue that an increase in President Obama’s political capital is bad because it will give him the Congressional votes necessary to pass some undesirable legislation (perhaps a tax increase on wealthy Americans that will devastate the U.S. economy). Other negative teams will argue that a decrease in President Obama’s political capital is bad because it will cost him the Congressional votes necessary to pass some desirable legislation (perhaps a free trade agreement with South Korea). The politics disadvantage offered in the 2012 Baylor Briefs suggests that undermining the President’s political capital may make it more difficult to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a piece of legislation that hampers U.S.-Russian relations. You will inevitably face politics disadvantages regardless of the affirmative plan you select, but it is important to think about the likely political impact of adopting your plan. What will be the impact of your plan on U.S. power and prestige? One of the major arguments on any policy debate topic concerns U.S. hegemony. “Hegemony” refers to a situation where one nation – in this case, the United States – is able to exercise economic and military control over large portions of the globe. Preserving or extending hegemony can be either a good or bad thing. Affirmative teams may argue that establishing U.S. leadership in high-speed rail is essential. Much of the real-world discussion on this topic actually does talk about U.S. prestige in an environment where China has already built a 300 mile per hour high-speed rail system. Affirmative teams can argue that preserving U.S. leadership in the world is important. Teams using such a case should, however, expect to hear arguments from negative teams that U.S. hegemony results in unending wars such as the one now going on Afghanistan. Is your plan technologically feasible? Some affirmative teams will choose cases dealing with new technologies such as smart roads or a hydrogen refueling infrastructure. In such cases, the affirmative team must be prepared to argue that the new technology is actually ready for implementation – not simply that it is a good idea. The hydrogen infrastructure case offered in this edition of the Baylor Briefs offers an interesting example of such a case. Much of the debate will focus on whether we know enough about the ways that hydrogen can be produced, stored, and used in fuel cells. 4 BAYLOR BRIEFS THE U.S. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE ITS TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT: WHAT DOES IT MEAN? This year's resolution contains several terms that are susceptible to various interpretations. There are, therefore, many opportunities for topicality debates with this resolution. The most important phrase in this resolution is “transportation infrastructure.” Neil Grigg, professor of environmental engineering at Colorado State University, provides an excellent explanation of the term in his 2010 book, Economics and Finance for Engineers and Planners: Managing Infrastructure and Natural Resources: “Transportation infrastructure can be classified into road, air, mass transit, rail, and water transportation subsectors for the different modes. Each of these has its own industry and unique facilities. Examples of facilities for various modes are: roads and highways: all rural and urban highways, roads, and streets; air: all airports, airways, and the associated infrastructure; mass transit: all intracity bus and rail lines; rail: intercity passenger and freight rail lines; water: rivers and waterways, maritime shipping, and ports and harbors; pipeline: pipelines to transport liquids and slurries; bicycle, pedestrian: bicycle lanes and trails, sidewalks, and paths; and intermodal: terminals to facilitate transfer between modes” (p. 63). Some definitions of “infrastructure” draw heavily upon the etymological origins of the term, meaning that which lies beneath. Susanne Trimbath, professor of Economics at Bellevue University, expands on this definition in the 2011 book, Transportation Infrastructure: Paving the Way. She references a U.S. Chamber of Commerce document to “define transportation infrastructure as the underlying structures that support the delivery of inputs to places of production, goods and services to customers, and customers to marketplaces. The structures are: transit, highways, airports, railways, waterways (ports), intermodal links” (p. 9). Professor Grigg explains the difference between “infrastructure” and the items that sit atop infrastructure: “Our definition of infrastructure distinguishes between the structures of infrastructure systems and the equipment of the organizations using the infrastructure to deliver public services, such as private motor vehicles and aircraft” (Infrastructure Finance: The Business of Infrastructure for a Sustainable Future, 2010, p. 6). AmosWeb, in its Pedestrian’s Guide to the Economy, also distinguishes between infrastructure and vehicles: “We usually think about transportation in terms of vehicles -- like cars, trucks, trains, airplanes, and boats. Vehicles, however, are only part of any transportation system. You usually need depots, roadbeds, and other such capital goods that we refer to as infrastructure. Cars need streets and highways, trains need tracks, airplanes need airports, and boats need docks and ports” (Dec. 6, 2011, http://www.amosweb.com/cgi-bin/awb_nav.pl?s=pdg&c=dsp&k=47). Another important term is “investment” – the direct object in the resolutional sentence. Most definitions of “investment” say that it refers to money. Consider the following definition in Chambers Dictionary: “Investment: Any placing of money to secure income or profit” (2006, p. 784). Why does the resolution include the phrase, “in the United States?” Wouldn’t all federal transportation infrastructure be “in the United States?” The answer is clearly, “no.” Without this prepositional phrase, an affirmative team could propose to increase U.S. government funding for road construction in Afghanistan or airport landing strips in Okinawa, Japan. The Topic Selection Committee wanted to ensure that affirmative cases would focus on transportation in the United States. What about an affirmative case that would propose increasing NASA’s funding for a human mission to Mars. Some definitions of “transportation infrastructure” seem to include space travel, leading affirmative teams to think that they can utilize their affirmative case from last year’s space topic on the 2012-2013 resolution. This phrase, “in the United States,” makes it difficult to establish the topicality for such a case. An affirmative team could argue that the “investment” is in the United States, in the sense that the rockets and supporting crew capsules would be built in the United States. Yet this interpretation seems to open up the topic to all sorts of international action. An affirmative team could, for example, propose building military troop transport vehicles that are more capable of withstanding roadway explosions of IEDs (improvised explosive devices). The vehicles would be built in the United States, but used in Afghanistan. The verb in the resolutional sentence is “increase” – the affirmative plan must propose to substantially increase the federal investment in transportation infrastructure. A common definition of “increase” is “to become or make something larger or greater” (Cambridge Dictionary of American English, 2008, p. 441). Using such a definition, some negative teams will argue that topical cases must propose to spend a lot more money than is now spent. But other definitions of “increase” call attention to improvements in quality. The Oxford Desk Dictionary and Thesaurus defines “increase” as to “advance in quality” (2007, p. 415). One of the affirmative cases in this volume proposes that more transportation funds should be shifted away from highway construction toward projects that promote walking and biking. The topicality of this case depends upon the affirmative team winning the argument that an increase in walking and biking constitutes a substantial improvement in the quality of U.S. transportation infrastructure. Another important limiting term in the resolution is the little pronoun, “its” – the affirmative plan must propose an increase in the U.S. federal government’s own investment in transportation infrastructure. The resolution does not allow the affirmative plan to propose increases in state or private infrastructure investment. Could an affirmative plan make the plan conditional upon a state government’s willingness to provide matching funds? That actually is the normal federal means for investing in transportation infrastructure. Because of the common use of federalism arguments and state counterplans, however, an affirmative team should try to avoid provisions in the plan that seem to establish overly strict conditions for state government recipients of federal funds. There is copious evidence in the Baylor Briefs to support numerous interpretations of topicality, both on the affirmative and negative sides. As you can see, words are almost always subject to conflicting definitions. Both affirmative and negative debaters must, therefore, prepare themselves well with dictionary and contextual definitions to defend their interpretations of what the resolution means. Good luck!! AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 5
NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK: FINANCING AMERICA’S FUTURE The thesis of this case is that a substantial increase in transportation infrastructure investment is essential to secure a bright future for the U.S. economy. Current funding mechanisms are incapable of providing the level of investment needed. The creation of a National Infrastructure Bank would offer many advantages, including job creation, promotion of private investment, and enabling state and local spending on vital projects. Plan: The United States federal government will substantially increase its transportation infrastructure investment by creating a National Infrastructure Bank (NIB). Federal investment in the NIB would be $60 billion over a ten year period with funding derived from a tax on crude oil levied at U.S. refineries. Investment decisions for the NIB would be made by an independent five-member board, appointed by the President and approved by the Senate similar to the model now used for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board. OBSERVATION: I. EXISTING MECHANISMS FOR FUNDING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS ARE INHERENTLY FLAWED. A. THE FEDERAL GASOLINE TAX IS INCAPABLE OF PROPERLY FINANCING NECESSARY INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE. Sam Staley, (Dir., Urban Land Use Policy, Reason Foundation), MOBILITY FIRST: A NEW VISION FOR TRANSPORTATION IN GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, 2009, 171. Over half the funds flowing into our surface transportation infrastructure comes from fuel and vehicle taxes. Unfortunately, fuel taxes are an increasingly unsustainable funding source. Inflation steadily erodes the purchasing power of fuel tax revenues, which are rarely increased since raising gas taxes is politically unpopular. At the same time fuel efficiency for cars has increased 54 percent since 1975. Thus, more people pay less in taxes for each mile they drive, even as that mile is more expensive to maintain, and even as the demand for road travel increases. And it's going to get worse. Fuel efficiency standards passed in 2007 require new auto fleets to improve 40 percent from today to an average 35 miles a gallon by 2020. This means fuel tax revenues will continue to shrink relative to use of the system. Economists have a term for this: fiscal illusion. We have created a false perception that we are paying for a public service through taxes when, in fact, we are not. Jonathan Miller, (Analyst, Urban Land Institute), INFRASTRUCTURE 2009: PIVOT POINT, 2009, 13. Emblematic of current, splintered U.S. infrastructure policy, most state road and local mass transit projects are funded through scores of disaggregated federal programs, many supported by the archaic Highway Trust Fund. The Trust Fund, a relic of interstate building days, now faces shortfalls, because the paltry federal gas tax that finances the fund has not been raised in 16 years. Neil Grigg, (Prof., Environmental Engineering, Colorado State U.), INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE: THE BUSINESS OF INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 2010, 283. The some $80 billion per year spent on road infrastructure is not adequate to maintain and improve the vast U.S. road system, and the gas tax is inadequate to finance even this level of maintenance. New methods to finance the system are essential if conditions are to improve or even stay the same. B. CURRENT FEDERAL APPROPRIATION PRACTICES ARE OVERLY BURDENED WITH EARMARKS THAT DESTROY ORDERLY INVESTMENT PRACTICES. Sam Staley, (Dir., Urban Land Use Policy, Reason Foundation), MOBILITY FIRST: A NEW VISION FOR TRANSPORTATION IN GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, 2009, 180. This current system is fragile. Absent a central focus and goal, federal gas taxes have become pass-through funds. Congress allocates transportation funding in a very politicized process to fund state and local transportation needs. The number of "earmarks"—specific projects inserted into legislation by individual members of Congress— has increased from just ten in 1982, to 1,850 in 1998, to 6,371 in the 2005 federal highway bill. R. Richard Geddes, (Prof., Policy Analysis, Cornell U.), THE ROAD TO RENEWAL: PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN U.S. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 2. A third major threat to the system is the rising misdirection and politicization of transportation spending. Federal highway spending in particular is notorious for its lack of direction and its subjection to political influence. Federal earmarks in general and the "bridge to nowhere" in particular have become emblematic of wasteful, unfocused transportation spending, as has political corruption associated with that spending. The growth in transportation earmarks over time is striking. The 1982 highway bill contained only 10 earmarked projects at a cost of $0.36 billion. In 1987, there were 152 earmarked projects at a cost of $1.4 billion. There were 538 earmarks in 1991 at a cost of $6.2 billion, and 1,850 in 1998 at a cost of $9.4 billion. The 2005 highway reauthorization bill contained an astounding 6,371 such earmarks at a total cost of $47 billion. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 6
Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 3-4. Congressional earmarks—in which members of Congress designate funding for specific projects—further tilt spending away from maintenance. The most notorious transportation earmark in recent history—for construction of the $223 million "Bridge to Nowhere" in Alaska—was to have been partially paid for with funds from the federal Highway Bridge Program, which cannot normally be spent to build new bridges. The 2005 transportation law created a program intended to identify and fund transportation projects of "national and regional significance" on a competitive basis, based on a set of objective criteria. However, members of Congress used earmarks to predetermine the winners of the grants, bypassing any national system of prioritization. C. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ARE INCAPABLE OF PROPERLY FUNDING TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE WITHOUT FEDERAL ASSISTANCE. Bernard Schwartz, (CEO, BLS Investments, LLC), INFRASTRUCTURE: REBUILDING, REPAIRING AND RESTRUCTURING, 2009, 44. State and local governments are experiencing new borrowing constraints as some states and localities bump up against debt ceilings or face increased borrowing costs because of deteriorating credit ratings and conditions, Moreover, our current financing structures do not allow states and localities to take advantage of the large institutional pools of capital, such as U.S. and European pension funds, that are available for infrastructure financing. Bernard Schwartz, (CEO, BLS Investments, LLC), INFRASTRUCTURE: REBUILDING, REPAIRING AND RESTRUCTURING, 2009, 42. Because states and municipalities rely heavily on property and sales taxes, the housing correction and consumer slowdown are creating a budgetary crisis for many state and local governments. As of January of this year, 24 states were either facing a shortfall for FY 2009 or were expecting budgetary problems in the next year or two. The expected shortfalls are likely to accelerate as home foreclosures increase, property values decline, and consumer spending falls. New capital projects will be one of the first victims of this budgetary crisis. ADVANTAGES: I. A NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK WILL BEST PROMOTE U.S. ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS. A. THE QUALITY OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE IS VITALLY IMPORTANT TO THE U.S. ECONOMY. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 4. Transportation's importance to the U.S. economy is more clearly indicated by its large share of economic activity, as measured by its share of GDP. In 2006 American consumers spent roughly $1.1 trillion commuting to work, traveling for pleasure, and buying and operating vehicles. Firms spent roughly $1 trillion shipping products to distribution centers and retail outlets, sending their employees to meet with customers and suppliers, and buying and operating vehicles (spending by firms on their employees' travel is included with consumers' transportation services). Local, state, and federal government spending on transportation infrastructure and services contributed $256 billion and upped total spending on transportation to more than $2.3 trillion, or roughly 17.5 percent of 2006 GDP. Neil Grigg, (Prof., Environmental Engineering, Colorado State U.), INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE: THE BUSINESS OF INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 2010, 10. While it is difficult to measure infrastructure's economic impact, estimates in Chapter 11 show that the value of U.S. infrastructure assets is around $8.3 trillion for public structures and $28.0 trillion for private structures (2007 data). Most of the public asset value is in roads, streets, and other infrastructure networks, while the private asset value is heavily weighted toward residential housing. Jonathan Masters, (Sr. Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations), U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 39. Infrastructure is central to U.S. prosperity and global competitiveness. It matters because state-of-the-art transportation, telecommunications, and energy networks—the connective tissue of the nation—are critical to moving goods, ideas, and workers quickly and efficiently and providing a safe, secure, and competitive climate for business operations. B. THE CURRENT DECAY IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERMINES U.S. ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS. John Rockefeller, (U.S. Sen., THE FUTURE OF NATIONAL SURFACE TRANSPORTATION POLICY, Senate Hrg., Apr. 28, 2009, 1. Our national surface transportation system provides the physical foundation for our economy, allowing people and goods to move throughout the country. Unfortunately, investment has not kept up with demand in the system over the past few decades. As a result, our physical infrastructure is in disrepair, congestion plagues our highways, ports, and railroads, and limited financial resources are available to fix the broken system. In addition, the transportation sector continues to be the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the United States. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 7
Colin Peppard, (Staff, Natural Resources Defense Council), THE ROAD TO RECOVERY: INVESTING IN A NEW TRANSPORTATION POLICY, Mar. 2011. Retrieved Feb. 18, 2012 from http://www.nrdc.org/energy/ transportation/files/roadtorecovery.pdf. Our outdated national transportation policy poses a triple threat to the nation—to our safety, to our energy and climate security, and to our economy. The current transportation law expired in 2009, and is due for a wholesale rewrite by the President and Congress. Now is the time to create a smarter, safer transportation network for the future, by repairing aging roads, rail lines and bridges, reducing our dependence on oil, and ensuring that our transportation dollars are invested in projects that bring the highest returns. NRDC recommends that Congress and the President work together to create a strong, coherent national transportation policy that will improve mobility, boost the economy, and protect the environment. C. A NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK WILL BEST PROMOTE U.S. ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS. Bernard Schwartz, (CEO, BLS Investments, LLC), INFRASTRUCTURE: REBUILDING, REPAIRING AND RESTRUCTURING, 2009, 43. By making public infrastructure spending the centerpiece of a new economic recovery program, we would be able to accomplish several urgent public policy goals simultaneously. We would close the public infrastructure investment gap at a time of low borrowing costs; we would provide the economy a significant boost in investment and job creation that it is needed to put the economy on a new growth path that is less dependent on housing and debt-financed consumption; and we would make the economy more productive and efficient over the longer term by eliminating costly bottlenecks and by crowding in new private investment, Public spending on infrastructure is the most effective way to counter an economic slowdown caused by the unwinding of a major asset bubble. And funding public infrastructure by issuing longterm Treasury Bills is still the lowest cost way to finance much needed public infrastructure improvements. For these reasons, we should use the necessity of a second stimulus package to close the public infrastructure deficit by dramatically increasing public infrastructure spending over the next two years, And we can do so without an equivalent increase in the budget deficit, since the deficit would widen in any case as tax revenues decline because of falling incomes for businesses and individuals and since public infrastructure spending would create new jobs and economic activity and thus increase tax revenues. James Corless, (Dir., Transportation for America), THE FUTURE OF NATIONAL SURFACE TRANSPORTATION POLICY, Senate Hrg., Apr. 28, 2009, 40. Transportation investments are our Nation's best tool to improve our economic competitiveness, reduce energy usage and curb greenhouse gas emissions, provide good paying green jobs and increase economic opportunity and quality of life for all Americans. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, AMERICA'S TOP FIVE TRANSPORTATION HEADACHES—AND THEIR REMEDIES, Jan. 2009, 8. The physical condition and efficiency of this network of roads, highways, bridges and public transit systems will be an important factor in the rate and effectiveness of the nation's economic recovery. Making needed improvements to America's roads, highways, bridges and public transit systems would provide a significant boost to the U.S. economy by stimulating short and long-term economic growth. II. A NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK WILL BEST PROMOTE JOB GROWTH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY. A. UNEMPLOYMENT IS A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM IN THE U.S. ECONOMY. Michael Fletcher, (Staff), WASHINGTON POST, Apr. 7, 2012, A1. The nation needs much more substantial job growth to escape the clutches of an enormous jobs deficit. There are 5.1 million fewer jobs now than there were when the last recession began in December 2007. In addition, economists estimate that the economy should have added another 4.7 million jobs since then to keep pace with the increase in the number of people who have reached working age. Even at the recent pace of creating more than 200,000 jobs a month, the nation was not expected to return to full employment for seven years, economists have said. David Frum, (Staff, CNN), CNN WIRE, Apr. 9, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 11, 2012 from Nexis. Nearly three years from the beginning of the economic recovery in the summer of 2009, the U.S. economy has replaced not even half the jobs lost in the slump of 2007-2009. At the current pace of job creation, it will take until 2017 to replace all the jobs lost. But of course the population has grown since 2007, so "replacement" is not good enough. We are even further away from equaling the employment rate of 2007—the proportion of the working-age population at work. Ann Belser, (Staff), PITTSBURGH POST-GAZETTE, Apr. 7, 2012, A1. Alan B. Krueger, the chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in his statement on the monthly employment report said that the unemployment rate for construction workers is 17.2 percent. Mr. Krueger said that high unemployment in the construction sector, which is more than twice the national unemployment rate, is a reason for the government to modernize the nation's infrastructure and to spend on maintenance of highways, bridges and ports. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 8
B. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT WILL BEST PROMOTE JOB GROWTH. Michael Likosky, (Sr. Fellow, Institute for Public Knowledge, New York U.), OBAMA’S BANK: FINANCING A DURABLE NEW DEAL, 2010, 47. Obama said that his infrastructure bank would take a government commitment of sixty billion dollars over ten years and turn it "into almost half a trillion dollars of additional infrastructure spending." This multiplying investment will produce "nearly two million new jobs." American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, AMERICA'S TOP FIVE TRANSPORTATION HEADACHES—AND THEIR REMEDIES, Jan. 2009, 5. Funding for transportation projects provides an immediate economic boost in related industries as these industries immediately start to increase production to meet the anticipated additional demand created by transportation spending. These related industries include mining, energy and equipment and vehicle manufacturing that provide materials or products related to surface transportation repairs or improvements. III. A NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK WILL BEST FACILITATE PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE. A. CURRENT TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IS WOEFULLY INADEQUATE, GIVEN THE LEVEL OF UNMET NEED. Andrew Hermann, (Board Member, American Society of Civil Engineers), HOW SAFE IS AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 28. There is clearly a demonstrated need to invest additional resources in our nation's bridges. However, deficient bridges are not the sole problem with our nation's infrastructure. The U.S. has significant infrastructure needs throughout the transportation sector, including roads, public transportation, airports, ports, and waterways. As a nation, we must begin to address the larger issues surrounding our infrastructure so that public safety and the economy will not suffer. Robert Puentes, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, xii. According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, the federal government's annual investment is less than two-thirds of what is needed just to maintain our roads and bridges in their present condition, let alone begin making improvements. Jonathan Miller, (Analyst, Urban Land Institute), INFRASTRUCTURE 2009: PIVOT POINT, 2009, vii. New infrastructure networks and necessary repairs will cost trillions of dollars to complete over the next two decades. The United States should establish an American Infrastructure Bank to help finance national networks, attract more private capital, and advance public/private partnerships. In addition, funding burdens must shift from taxpayers to users since depleted government coffers will not sustain initiatives. Marcia Clemmitt, (Analyst, CQ Researcher), HOW SAFE IS AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 13. Because of increasing user demand and years of neglected maintenance, the U.S. infrastructure overall rates a near-failing grade of "D" from the ASCE. The group says a $1.6-trillion, five-year investment is needed to bring facilities up to snuff. Much of the existing U.S infrastructure was built in the 1930s, '40s and '50s and today carries loads that "are magnitudes beyond" what its builders anticipated, he says. B. A NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK WILL GENERATE MASSIVE PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE. Jonathan Masters, (Sr. Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations), U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 40. One way to finance the rebuilding of our country is by creating a national infrastructure bank that is owned by the federal government but not operated by it. The bank would be similar to the World Bank and European Investment Bank. Funded with a capital base of $50 to $60 billion, the infrastructure bank would have the power to insure bonds of state and local governments, provide targeted and precise subsidies, and issue its own thirty- to fifty- year bonds to finance itself with conservative 3:1 gearing. Such a bank could easily leverage $250 billion of new capital in its first several years and as much as $1 trillion over a decade. Bernard Schwartz, (CEO, BLS Investments, LLC), INFRASTRUCTURE: REBUILDING, REPAIRING AND RESTRUCTURING, 2009, 45. An NIB or NIDC [National Infrastructure Development Corporation] would be able to channel private finance into public infrastructure almost immediately. As importantly, they would be able to tap financing from large institutional investors — from large U.S. and European pension funds, insurance companies, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. Thus, they would allow us to raise more capital for public infrastructure investment more efficiently and at a lower cost than we can do through the municipal bond market as it now exists. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 160. A federal infrastructure bank for spurring major new private investment is needed to jump-start funding for urgent transportation projects. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 9
Everett Ehrlich, (Former Dir., CSIS Commission on Public Infrastructure), INFRASTRUCTURE: REBUILDING, REPAIRING AND RESTRUCTURING, 2009, 59. The reality is that private money is itching to enter this area, and lots of it. Infrastructure is the flavor of the month in asset markets. The point is not to keep private money out, but to guide it in the right directions. This is an important prospective function for a national infrastructure financing facility. A Bank could guide private money — and state policy regarding asset sales — to the right purposes. For example, private money has eagerly pursued existing assets, but has no appetite for building new ones, at least in the United States. A Bank could change that focus by being a lending partner for new projects in which private investors played a leading role, or could provide credit guarantees or other enhancements that lowered their cost of capital. IV. A NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK WILL IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING IN THE UNITED STATES. A. POLITICIZATION OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING IS A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM AT PRESENT. R. Richard Geddes, (Prof., Policy Analysis, Cornell U.), THE ROAD TO RENEWAL: PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN U.S. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, xii. As the numerous earmarks in the 2005 highway reauthorization bill suggest, much of America's federal transportation spending today is directed by political calculations rather than by benefits to motorists and taxpayers in their capacity as investors. Sam Staley, (Dir., Urban Land Use Policy, Reason Foundation), MOBILITY FIRST: A NEW VISION FOR TRANSPORTATION IN GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, 2009, 4. Special interests vie for their share of the funding pie; whether it's a "Bridge to Nowhere" in Alaska, free federal money for a local project so local transportation funds can be diverted to pay for pension obligations, or spending only 50 percent of local transportation funds on the road system that carries 90 percent of local travel, too much time, energy, and money are spent on transportation projects that don't well serve an increasingly mobile and flexible society. B. A NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK WILL IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT BY REMOVING POLITICAL DISTORTIONS. Robert Puentes, (Sr. Fellow, Metropolitan Program, Brookings Institution), HEARING ON INFRASTRUCTURE BANKS, May 13, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 13, 2012 from http://www.brookings.edu/testimony/2010/0513_ infrastructure_puentes.aspx. A more competitive U.S. economy needs a better infrastructure system. In a time of limited resources, improving the federal investment process should be a priority over finding ways to merely increase the amount of funding for infrastructure. If designed and implemented appropriately, a national infrastructure bank would be a targeted mechanism to deal with new federal infrastructure spending. An NIB would provide a better project selection process for neglected federal investment in infrastructure, such as capital projects across jurisdictions and state borders, but also there would be more rigorous evaluation of projects across different types of infrastructure. Lewis Solomon, (Prof., Law, George Washington U.), THE PROMISE AND PERILS OF INFRASTRUCTURE PRIVATIZATION: THE MACQUARIE MODEL, 2009, 107-108. Some have suggested a National Investment Bank, an independent federal entity for infrastructure financing, which would have the authority to finance infrastructure projects by issuing long-term, federally guaranteed bonds. It would allocate funds to these projects based on various factors, such as location, type, regional and national significance, reduction in traffic congestion, and environmental benefits. The bank concept focuses on making more rational public sector decisions about spending for highways and bridges on their merits and removing some of the politics inherent in the current scattershot system. Michael Likosky, (Sr. Fellow, Institute for Public Knowledge, New York U.), OBAMA’S BANK: FINANCING A DURABLE NEW DEAL, 2010, 12. The bank would choose projects "not by politics" but instead "by what will maximize our safety and homeland security; what will keep our environment clean and economy strong. It would be capitalized by sixty billion federal dollars over a ten-year period. This relatively modest sum in the face of astounding need, Obama asserted, "will multiply into almost half a trillion dollars of additional infrastructure spending." Everett Ehrlich, (Former Dir., CSIS Commission on Public Infrastructure), INFRASTRUCTURE: REBUILDING, REPAIRING AND RESTRUCTURING, 2009, 61. We know that the resources our economy devotes to infrastructure are inadequate to meet our best engineering estimates of needs. But we do not have a system for testing the economic validity of those needs, nor of making sure the best projects are funded first. A National Infrastructure Bank is attractive not just because it would better lever federal resources, but also because it would allow us to put in place a project selection process that evaluated our investment opportunities coherently and set priorities based on those evaluations.
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ROAD ECOLOGY: TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE SHOULD RESPECT WILDLIFE The thesis of this case is that the current emphasis on new road construction endangers species by bisecting habitats and increasing vehicle-wildlife collisions. The emphasis in transportation infrastructure spending should be redirected to modifications that will reduce negative impacts on wildlife. Modifications such as animal detection systems and wildlife crossings have demonstrated their potential to reduce the impact of roads on wildlife populations. Plan: The United States federal government will substantially increase its transportation infrastructure investment by mandating a 50% increase in the “transportation enhancements” portion of federal highway spending with a requirement that half of such funding be devoted to road ecology projects, including wildlife detection systems and wildlife crossings. OBSERVATION: I. PRESERVATION OF SPECIES IS A LEGAL AND MORAL IMPERATIVE. A. U.S. LAW REQUIRES ACTION TO PRESERVE SPECIES. Ari Sommer, (Editor), BOSTON COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS LAW REVIEW, 2009, 284. The ESA [Endangered Species Act] has been described as one of the most effective environmental statutes ever passed by Congress, largely because of its absolutist stance. Its most powerful provisions strictly forbid certain actions, while others absolutely require action, regardless of cost or convenience. Kalyani Robbins, (Prof., Law, Akron School of Law), BUFFALO LAW REVIEW, Dec. 2010, 1103-1104. The Supreme Court has recognized that "the plain intent of Congress in enacting [the Endangered Species Act] was to halt and reverse the trend toward species extinction, whatever the cost." Recovery of struggling species is the goal, not merely protecting the status quo. Sarah Gerson, (J.D. Candidate), ECOLOGY LAW QUARTERLY, 2009, 411. Congress recognized that endangered species of plants and wildlife "are of esthetic, ecological, educational, historical, recreational, and scientific value to the Nation and its people." Accordingly, the stated purpose of the ESA is "to provide a means whereby the ecosystems upon which endangered species and threatened species depend may be conserved" and "to provide a program for the conservation of such endangered species and threatened species." The ESA defines conservation as, "the use of all methods and procedures which are necessary to bring any endangered species or threatened species to the point at which the measures provided pursuant to this Act are no longer necessary." Reading these two sections together, it is clear that Congress aimed to achieve "conservation," which is essentially defined as species recovery. B. INTERNATIONAL LAW REQUIRES ACTION TO PRESERVE SPECIES. Holmes Rolston, (Prof., Philosophy, Colorado State U.), ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ANIMAL RIGHTS AND ANIMAL WELFARE, 2010, 206. The United Nations World Charter for Nature states that, "Every form of life is unique, warranting respect regardless of its worth to man." The Biodiversity Convention affirms "the intrinsic value of biological diversity." Both are signed by over a hundred nations. C. THERE EXISTS A CATEGORICAL IMPERATIVE TO PRESERVE SPECIES. Winthrop Staples, (Ph.D., Philosophy, Colorado State U.), FOR A SPECIES MORAL RIGHT TO EXIST: THE IMPERATIVE OF AN ADEQUATE ENVIRONMENTAL ETHICS, 2009, 56-57. Of particular note is Rolston’s argument that species have immense value, because they are the result of millions if not billions of years of natural selection and, therefore, an immense sum of biological knowledge, information, and value conserved in existing forms or species. Because of this, every extinction is like a “superkilling” that kills forms beyond individuals. He then goes so far as to say that the corresponding duty to preserve the value in species is “a categorical imperative to living categories.” Holmes Rolston, (Prof., Philosophy, Colorado State U.), ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ANIMAL RIGHTS AND ANIMAL WELFARE, 2010, 206. Responsibility to species differs from that to individuals, although species are always exemplified in individuals. When an individual dies, another replaces it. As it tracks its environment, the species is conserved and modified. Extinction shuts down the generative processes, as a kind of superkilling. This kills forms (species) beyond individuals, and kills collectively, not just distributively. To kill a particular animal is to stop a life of a few years or decades, while other lives of such kind continue unabated; to superkill a particular species is to shut down a story of many millennia, and leave no future possibilities. Alan Carter, (Prof., Philosophy, U. Glasgow), PHILOSOPHY AND PHENOMENOLOGICAL RESEARCH, Jan. 2010, 61. Diminutions in diversity affect the spiral in reverse. Losses in diversity beget further losses and the upward diversity spiral will be slowed and eventually reversed if natural and/or human-caused disturbances are severe and continued. If a species goes extinct, other species which interact with it and depend upon it are, in turn, threatened.
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CONTENTIONS: I. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS AS CURRENTLY PLANNED ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HARMFUL TO WILDLIFE AND HUMAN POPULATIONS. A. ROADS FRAGMENT WILDLIFE HABITATS, THREATENING SPECIES EXTINCTION. Ginny Finch, (Analyst, Office of Natural Environment, Federal Highway Administration), WILDLIFE AND HIGHWAYS: AN OVERVIEW, Apr. 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 8, 2012 from http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ environment/wildlifecrossings/overview.htm. Few species use all the patches of a landscape. Their survival depends on being able to move from one patch to another. When highways "fragment" landscapes, they divide wildlife populations into smaller, more isolated units. Smaller populations are less stable and, over time, face extinction from predators or natural causes. They may also be more susceptible to inbreeding and to genetic defects. Habitat fragmentation threatens all wildlife species that have to cross roads to meet their biological needs. "Forest carnivores are particularly vulnerable," says biologist Bill Ruediger of the U.S. Forest Service. "They're at risk because of their small populations, low reproduction rates, and large—even huge—home ranges." Jon Beckmann, (Prof., Wildlife Management, Idaho State U.), SAFE PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, WILDLIFE, AND HABITAT CONNECTIVITY, 2010, xv. As human activities continue to spread across the globe, infrastructure such as roads facilitates this expanding human footprint. New roads also inevitably lead to higher rates of human access in areas that were previously relatively more remote. Roads, both a result of the expanding footprint and a driver in human expansion, are a leading cause of habitat fragmentation and the resulting loss of connectivity throughout the world and particularly in North America. Miguel Pereira, (Prof., Ecology, U. of Evora, Portugal), INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, Oct. 13, 2010, 71. Transportation infrastructures, like roads, highways and railways, are known sources of habitat loss and fragmentation, pollution and mortality in animal populations. Roads can affect animal populations in many ways like, killing, behavior modifications, avoidance, and population disruption caused by a barrier effect. Roads might isolate metapopulations, increasing extinction risk and blocking recolonization. B. VEHICLE-WILDLIFE COLLISIONS THREATEN THE EXTINCTION OF SPECIES. Mary Gray, (Environmental Protection Specialist, Federal Highway Administration), PUBLIC ROADS, Sept/Oct. 2009. Retrieved Apr. 8, 2012 from http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/publicroads/09septoct/03.cfm. For animals, collisions with vehicles present an immediate danger to their individual survival. In addition, certain threatened and endangered species can face even greater reductions in their numbers, potentially affecting their ability to survive as a population. The FHWA study documents 21 federally listed threatened or endangered animal species in the United States for which road mortality is a threat to survival of the species or population. National Wildlife Federation, OUR WORK TO BUILD CORRIDORS FOR WILDLIFE, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from http://www.nwf.org/Wildlife/What-We-Do/Wildlife-Conservation/Wildlife-Corridors.aspx. We may know better than to cross a busy highway. Unfortunately wildlife do not. On U.S. highways, a vehicle hits an animal at least every 26 seconds. Road mortality is a serious threat to 21 federally listed endangered and threatened species. Kelly Brenner, (Analyst, Metropolitan Field Guide), ROAD ECOLOGY AND WILDLIFE CROSSINGS, Jan. 26, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 8, 2012 from http://www.metrofieldguide.com/?p=726. Roads have a huge impact on wildlife. They act as a barrier to many types of species during their daily or seasonal movements, they provide an unsafe basking site for reptiles and they can also make streams impassible for aquatic species. When large mammals cross in front of vehicles, the result can be deadly to both humans and wildlife, and also very costly. Many species of wildlife are killed on roads including mammals, reptiles and amphibians, insects and birds. There has not been much study in the past about wildlife road fatalities, however one estimate suggests upwards of 72,000 deer are killed every year. One study of painted turtles in Montana found that during a four month period, on a stretch of four and a half miles, 205 turtles were killed. Jon Beckmann, (Prof., Wildlife Management, Idaho State U.), SAFE PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, WILDLIFE, AND HABITAT CONNECTIVITY, 2010, 8. With an estimated 1 million vertebrates killed every day on roads in the United States, death tolls on wildlife are astounding. A five-state study concluded that 15,000 reptiles and amphibians, 48,000 mammals, and 77,000 birds die each month due to collisions with vehicles.
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C. VEHICLE-WILDLIFE COLLISIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HARMFUL TO MOTORISTS. Marcel Hutjser, (Commissioner, National Academy’s Transportation Research Board), SAFE PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, WILDLIFE, AND HABITAT CONNECTIVITY, 2010, 51. In the United States the total number of large mammal-vehicle collisions is estimated at 1 to 2 million and at 45,000 in Canada annually. In the 1990s in the United States, these collisions were estimated to cause 211 human fatalities, 29,000 human injuries, and over $1 billion in property damage annually. These numbers increased even further in the last decade in both the United States and Canada. II. CURRENT PROGRAMS FAIL TO PROTECT WILDLIFE AND MOTORISTS. A. CURRENT TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IMPROPERLY FOCUS ON NEW ROAD CONSTRUCTION. Laura Tepper, (Fellow in Environmental Design, U. California at Berkeley), ROAD ECOLOGY: WILDLIFE HABITAT AND HIGHWAY DESIGN, Sept. 22, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from http://places.designobserver. com/feature/road-ecology-wildlife-crossings-and-highway-design/29498/. President Obama's 2012 budget proposal called for substantially increased spending on rail and public transit, but nonetheless allocates 55 percent of transportation funds to the Federal Highway Administration. The United States adds 32,000 lane miles annually to the 4 million miles of public roads already crisscrossing the country. For more than a century, we have allowed expressways, arterials and rural roads to define our landscapes without seriously considering how we might redefine the road. Engineers have rarely attempted to incorporate ecological functions, let alone artistry, into a design practice historically dominated by concerns for speed and efficiency. B. CURRENT FEDERAL TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING FAILS TO DESIGNATE ANY FUNDING FOR WILDLIFE CROSSINGS OR HABITAT CONNECTIVITY. Patricia White, (Founder, TransWild Alliance), SAFE PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, WILDLIFE, AND HABITAT CONNECTIVITY, 2010, 146. The United States invests enormous sums in our transportation systems—significantly more than is spent on natural resource and land management. Transportation law provides dedicated funding for several different categories, such as the interstate system, maintenance, research, and others. But no dedicated funding source is available for protecting or restoring habitat connectivity, making it difficult for conservation advocates and champions to get wildlife crossings built into transportation projects. III. INCREASED INVESTMENT IN ROAD ECOLOGY PROJECTS WILL BEST PROTECT WILDLIFE AND MOTORISTS. A. PILOT PROJECTS DEMONSTRATE THE POTENTIAL OF WILDLIFE CROSSINGS TO PROTECT ENDANGERED SPECIES. Kelly Brenner, (Analyst, Metropolitan Field Guide), ROAD ECOLOGY AND WILDLIFE CROSSINGS, Jan. 26, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 8, 2012 from http://www.metrofieldguide.com/?p=726. Interstate 75 runs along Everglades National Park and a series of underpasses were built to help move water to the Everglades Park as well as giving the endangered Florida Panther a way to move under the road. Vehicle collisions accounted for nearly half of all Panther deaths and their numbers dropped to about 30 individuals. Since the installation of 23 crossings no Panthers have been hit where there was a crossing available. The most recent estimate is that there are over 100 individuals today and the general consensus is that growth is in large part due to the crossings. The Panther is not the only species to benefit however, other wildlife seen using the crossings include Black Bears, armadillos, alligators, Gray Foxes, White-tailed Deer and a variety of birds. B. THE INSTALLATION OF ANIMAL DETECTION TECHNOLOGIES WILL SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE WILDLIFE-VEHICLE COLLISIONS. Mary Gray, (Environmental Protection Specialist, Federal Highway Administration), PUBLIC ROADS, Sept/Oct. 2009. Retrieved Apr. 8, 2012 from http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/publicroads/09septoct/03.cfm. After completion of a 2-year evaluation following implementation, results indicate that the project has reduced the incidence of elk-vehicle collisions by 96 percent in the Preacher Canyon area, with only one elk-vehicle collision in 2.5 years compared to 12 collisions per year from 2001-2006. In addition, the reaction from motorists in terms of reducing speed and applying brakes in response to the warning signs and crosswalk concept has been significant. "The system detected animals approaching the highway and activated the motorist alert signs 97 percent of the time, including the initial period where the bugs were being worked out," says Dodd, who was a leading proponent for habitat connectivity and decreasing wildlife-vehicle collisions while working as a research biologist at the Arizona Game and Fish Department. "We are seeing very few false positives." AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 13
HIGH-SPEED RAIL: GETTING BACK ON TRACK The thesis of this case is that high-speed rail offers the optimum means for intercity travel in America. The current over- reliance on automobiles and airplanes creates many problems including traffic congestion, airport delays, and inefficient use of energy resources. President Obama provided initial funding for high-speed rail projects as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in 2009. Unfortunately Congress decided to terminate continued funding for this essential component of transportation infrastructure. Restoring proper funding of President Obama’s vision for high-speed rail will produce significant economic and environmental advantages. Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its investment in high-speed rail projects by creating an Intercity Passenger Rail Account within the U.S. Department of Transportation. As recommended by the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission, $8.1 billion per year from general federal revenues will be designated for the construction of high-speed rail corridors throughout the United States. OBSERVATION: I. CURRENT FEDERAL SUPPORT FOR HIGH-SPEED RAIL PROJECTS IS INHERENTLY FLAWED. A. CONGRESS HAS BLOCKED FUNDING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA’S HIGH-SPEED RAIL VISION. Jerry Zremski, (Staff), BUFFALO NEWS, Nov. 18, 2011, A1. Congress on Thursday shut down federal funding for President Obama's high-speed rail program, meaning that its extent in upstate New York might amount to nothing more than the local rail improvements that were previously funded. The House, by a vote of 298-121, approved a $182 billion bill aimed at averting a government shutdown by setting fiscal 2012 spending levels for transportation, housing, agriculture, commerce and several smaller programs. The legislation also extends funding for other parts of the federal government through Dec. 16. The bill, which the Senate passed later Thursday by a vote of 70-30, includes no money for the high-speed rail program—even though Obama had requested $8 billion. B. FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING UNDERVALUES ALL PASSENGER RAIL PROGRAMS. Staff Report of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN THE UNITED STATES: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, Oct. 14, 2009, viii. The discrepancy in historical Federal investment between highways, aviation, and intercity passenger rail is staggering. Between 1958 and 2008, nearly $1.3 trillion has been invested in our nation's highways and over $473 billion in aviation. Federal investment in passenger rail began in 1971 with the creation of the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak). Between 1971 and 2008, only $53 billion dollars have been invested in passenger rail. ADVANTAGES: I. FEDERAL INVESTMENT IN HIGH-SPEED RAIL PROPERLY PREPARES FOR THE END OF THE ERA OF OIL. A. FAILURE TO PREPARE FOR THE PEAKING OF OIL SUPPLIES WILL CREATE MASSIVE ECONOMIC DISRUPTION. Ron Rhodes, (Prof., Dallas Theological Seminary), THE COMING OIL STORM, 2010, 17. Some experts who have assessed the declining oil in the world are now warning humankind that "the party is over." Kjell Aleklett, president of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) and a physics professor at Uppsala University in Sweden, warns that "we have all been enjoying the greatest party the world has ever seen: the great oil party... After the climax comes the decline, when we have to sober up and face the fact that the party is coming to an end." Not only could the end of the party severely damage the global economy, he warns, but it could also lead to social and political unrest as various countries try to keep the party going even as the oil disappears. [ellipsis is in the original] B. FAILURE TO PREPARE FOR THE PEAKING OF OIL SUPPLIES RISKS ENDLESS WAR. Ron Rhodes, (Prof., Dallas Theological Seminary), THE COMING OIL STORM, 2010, 58. War may seem to be inevitable with national face-offs over oil. Of course, one would hope that oil wars will be waged merely with cash and not conventional weaponry. However, many experts are concerned that the outbreak of weaponized war over oil remains a serious possibility. One expert laments that "desperate attempts by one country or region to maintain its standard of living at the expense of others could lead to Oil War III." C. HIGH-SPEED RAIL MOVES THE UNITED STATES BEYOND RELIANCE ON OIL FOR TRANSPORTATION. Daniel Wood, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, Feb. 8, 2011. Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 from Nexis. To supporters of high-speed rail expansion, however, U.S. transportation must move beyond its reliance on oil. High-speed rail is the only form of intercity transportation that has a 45-year record of moving people without oil, says Anthony Perl, professor of political science at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, Canada, and a fellow at the Post Carbon Institute. "That's why 30 countries around the world have done this and the U.S. and Canada are just laggards," he says. "If people want to get where they are going between cities they are going to need high-speed rail because flying and driving will only become more and more costly." AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 14
II. FEDERAL INVESTMENT IN HIGH-SPEED RAIL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES TRANSPORTATION SECTOR SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. A. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS THREATEN SIGNFICANT HARM TO THE HEALTH OF THE PLANET. Patrick Parenteau, (Prof., Law, U. Vermont Law School), VERMONT LAW REVIEW, Summer 2010, 957. Global climate change is not only "unequivocal" as the IPCC Fourth Assessment proclaimed, it is happening now, it is accelerating, and no one knows for sure what lies ahead as the nations of the world struggle in a race against time to achieve an unprecedented level of cooperation on greenhouse gas limits before it is, literally, too late to save humanity. The polar ice caps, the Arctic, and massive glaciers in the Himalayas and Andes are melting faster than predicted; sea levels are rising faster than predicted; the ocean is slowly turning acidic; tropical storms are intensifying; saltwater is contaminating coastal aquifers and degrading estuaries; lake levels are dropping; runoff is increasing; flood peaks are growing; droughts are intensifying; wildfires are spreading; pests and invasive species are expanding; diseases are moving into population centers; ecosystems are shifting poleward and upward; migratory species patterns are changing; coldwater habitat is shrinking; and more deadly heatwaves are expected. And none of that takes into account the potential for abrupt climate change which could unleash truly catastrophic, Hollywood disaster movie scenarios. B. U.S. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE IS A MAJOR SOURCE OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. Tony Dutzik, (Analyst, Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), HIGH-SPEED RAIL AROUND THE WORLD AND ITS PROMISE FOR AMERICA, Fall 2010, 20. Transportation in the United States is heavily dependent on oil and is a major contributor to both global warming and air pollution problems in cities throughout the nation. Although home to a mere 4.5 percent of the world's population, the United State emits nearly one-fifth of the world's global warming emissions. In the United States, the transportation sector is responsible for 33 percent of these emissions. C. HIGH-SPEED RAIL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. James McCommons, (Prof., English, Northern Michigan U.), WAITING ON A TRAIN: THE EMBATTLED FUTURE OF PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE, 2009, 15. Passenger trains consume 17 percent less energy than airplanes and 21 percent less than cars for every passenger mile, according to the Department of Energy. The average inter-city passenger train produces 60 percent less carbon dioxide per passenger mile than a car and 50 percent less than an airplane. Siena Kaplan, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group), THE RIGHT TRACK: BUILDING A 21ST CENTURY HIGH-SPEED RAIL SYSTEM FOR AMERICA, 2010, 15. Passenger rail is a cleaner form of transportation than car or air travel, emitting less global warming pollution and less health-threatening air pollution. Building a high-speed rail network in the United States would attract passengers who otherwise would have taken cars or planes, reducing the country's global warming emissions and cleaning up our air. Modernizing our tracks would also benefit freight trains, taking large trucks off of highways and adding to the environmental and health benefits of investment in rail. III. FEDERAL INVESTMENT IN HIGH-SPEED RAIL WILL PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE JOBS PROGRAM FOR AMERICANS. A. CURRENT LEVELS OF UNEMPLOYMENT REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM. Staff Report of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN THE UNITED STATES: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, Oct. 14, 2009, ix. Since the recession began in December 2007, the unemployment rate has doubled to 9.8 percent representing an increase from 7.6 million to 15.1 million unemployed persons." Since this time, employment in manufacturing has fallen by 2.1 million. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, since 1998, the U.S. has lost more than 5.9 million manufacturing jobs.' The current economic, environmental, and transportation challenges facing our nation require continued efforts to expand and invest in high-speed rail services. Jason Altmire, (U.S. Rep., Pennsylvania), EXPANDING PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE, Hrg., June 22, 2009, viii. Since the recession began in December 2007, one of the hardest hit sectors has been in construction where unemployment rates have reached over 21 percent. Since that time, over 1,050,000 jobs have been lost in the construction sector. Expanding passenger rail infrastructure will create jobs, not only in the construction sector of the economy, but in the manufacturing and service sectors as well. B. FEDERAL INVESTMENT IN HIGH-SPEED RAIL WILL CREATE MILLIONS OF GOOD JOBS. Siena Kaplan, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group), THE RIGHT TRACK: BUILDING A 21ST CENTURY HIGH-SPEED RAIL SYSTEM FOR AMERICA, 2010, 13. Between this economic benefit, and the work required to build and operate the trains, an American high-speed rail system could create millions of jobs. According to an analysis by the Midwest High Speed Rail Association (MHSRA), building the national system will create up to 1.6 million construction jobs. The economic boost from the system could translate into up to 4.5 million additional permanent jobs. Manufacturing the trains will require additional workers—the MHSRA estimates up to 100,000 new jobs. 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IV. FEDERAL INVESTMENT IN HIGH-SPEED RAIL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE DEATHS ON U.S. HIGHWAYS. A. A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DEATHS OCCUR ON U.S. HIGHWAYS. Tony Dutzik, (Analyst, Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), HIGH-SPEED RAIL AROUND THE WORLD AND ITS PROMISE FOR AMERICA, Fall 2010, 23. As populations throughout the United States increase, more and more people will demand safe and reliable transportation. While air travel in America is relatively safe, save for rare disasters, car travel is a major killer. In 2009, 33,808 people died on the nation's highways, the fewest of any year since 1950. Despite the decline in fatalities, however, the number of people who die each year on America's roads remains shockingly high. B. HIGH-SPEED RAIL OFFERS A SOLUTION TO HIGHWAY DEATHS. David Peterman, (Analyst in Transportation Policy, U.S. Congressional Research Service), HIGH SPEED RAIL: BACKGROUND AND ISSUES, 2010, 5-6. A high speed rail system using dedicated track can handle many trains at one time without compromising safety. For example, the Japanese high speed rail network, which began operation in 1964, now has trains running at speeds up to 200 mph, with as little as three minutes of headway (the time separating trains operating on the same track) during peak periods. In more than 40 years of operation, there has never been a fatality due to a train crash on the Japanese high speed network. C. Michael Walton, (Prof., Engineering, U. Texas), THE CASE FOR BUSINESS INVESTMENT IN HIGH-SPEED AND INTERCITY PASSENGER RAIL, Aug. 2011, 5. In terms of safety, high-speed rail is regarded as the safest transportation mode, in terms of passenger fatalities per billion passenger-kilometers, that is currently available. V. FEDERAL INVESTMENT IN HIGH-SPEED RAIL WILL REDUCE TRAFFIC CONGESTION ON U.S. HIGHWAYS. A. TRAFFIC CONGESTION IS A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM AT PRESENT. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, xix. In our pursuit of growth, we have forgotten about our existing transportation system, which in many instances dates back over a hundred years and is the connective tissue that enables the movement of our nation's commerce as well as the traveling public. And in the process, we have begun to choke on congestion that ties up our roads and impacts our economy, as it adds untold environmental pressures on a nation struggling to control its addiction to the automobile. Tom Skancke, (Commissioner, National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission), HIGH- SPEED PASSENGER RAIL: HOW FAST WILL IT GET HERE?, June 23, 2009, 31. We have forced the American public into cars and have made them sit in hours of congestion. This congestion is costing our economy billions of dollars in lost time and production output. In addition to not offering American's modal choices we have not offered them a bold vision to invest in. Corrine Brown, (U.S. Rep., Florida), ROLL CALL, June 7, 2010. Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 from Nexis. It has become clear that Americans need transportation alternatives. Congestion is crippling our major cities; even the infrastructure in our small towns is aging at an alarming rate. In 2007, traffic congestion cost $87.2 billion, including 4.2 billion hours of delays and 2.8 billion gallons of wasted fuel in our nation's metropolitan areas. The average driver in 28 metropolitan regions experienced 40 or more hours of delay per year. Twenty-seven years ago, only Los Angeles experienced that level of congestion. Families are losing what precious little time they have together because of time spent in traffic going to and from work, picking up the kids at day care or running the endless errands that seem a part of life in today's society. We cannot just focus on building more roads. We have to find broader solutions to address our transportation problems. That is why we must develop high-speed rail in the U.S. and build on our intercity passenger rail systems such as Amtrak. B. HIGH-SPEED RAIL OFFERS A SOLUTION TO TRAFFIC CONGESTION. Curtis Morgan, (Program Manager, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), MEASURING THE BENEFITS OF INTERCITY PASSENGER RAIL: A STUDY OF THE HEARTLAND FLYER CORRIDOR, Apr. 2010, xi. In its December 2007 Transportation for Tomorrow report, the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission identified the need for a “fast and reliable” intercity passenger rail network as a key component of America’s mobility future, citing increased congestion in existing highway and air transportation networks as well as the energy efficiency of rail passenger transport in support of its recommendation. The Commission further recommended that enhancements or additions to the nation’s passenger rail network should focus primarily on intercity corridors between 100 and 500 miles in length. In these corridors, intercity rail can be a reasonably competitive alternative to highway or air travel on a travel time basis. By diverting some short- to medium-distance trips from highway or air modes, passenger rail can play a critical role in relieving congestion on major intercity corridors. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 16
NEXTGEN: BRINGING AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL INTO THE 21ST CENTURY The thesis of this case is that the U.S. federal government must expedite the shift away from its outdated reliance on a radar-based air traffic control system. The current system of air traffic control requires commercial aircraft to fly inefficient routes in order to remain within range of ground-based radar beacons. This inefficient system wastes fuel, increases greenhouse gas emissions, and delays passengers. The NextGen system, based on GPS technology, is capable of resolving all of the inefficiencies inherent in the current radar-based system. Unfortunately, Congress has refused to provide necessary funding for NextGen implementation. Plan: The U.S. federal government should substantially increase its investment in transportation infrastructure by appropriating $8 billion per year over the next six years to properly fund the implementation of the necessary component parts of the Next Generation Air Traffic Control System (NextGen). Funding will come jointly from the Airport and Airway Trust Fund and general federal revenues. OBSERVATIONS: I. AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL OFFERS A PRIME EXAMPLE OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT. A. THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM IS A FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSIBILITY. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 9-10. In the wake of increasing air traffic and a well-publicized June 1956 midair collision between long-distance United Airlines and TWA flights over the Grand Canyon, Congress passed the Federal Aviation Act in 1958, which gave responsibility for managing the nation's navigable airspace to the new Federal Aviation Agency (renamed the Federal Aviation Administration in 1967, when it was brought into the newly established U.S. Department of Transportation). Financial support for the air traffic control system comes from airline ticket tax revenues that go into the Airport and Airway Trust Fund and from general revenues. B. THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM IS A VITAL COMPONENT OF U.S. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE. Robert W. Poole, Jr., (Searle Freedom Trust Transportation Fellow, Reason Foundation), AIRPORTS AND AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL, June 2010. Retrieved Feb. 22, 2012 from http://www.downsizinggovernment.org/ transportation/airports-atc. Many aviation experts predict serious trouble in coming years as air travel demand grows faster than the ability of the U.S. air traffic control system to expand capacity. In the 2003 reauthorization of the FAA, Congress acknowledged the seriousness of the problem by creating the Joint Planning and Development Office to coordinate the transition to a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). NextGen will be a major redesign of the ATC [Air Traffic Control] infrastructure, as described by the Congressional Budget Office: The new system is designed to accommodate up to three times the volume of current air traffic by making more efficient use of both the national airspace and airport facilities. The new air traffic control system would be more decentralized than the one currently in place in the United States. Guidance systems on planes would work in conjunction with satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to supplement direct supervision by ground-based controllers and radar stations. As a result, each plane would depend less on instructions from an air traffic controller and more on its own resources for maintaining a safe flight pattern and would be better able to adjust to the particular air traffic conditions in its vicinity. C. THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM REQUIRES AN INVESTMENT IN THE FUTURE OF AVIATION. Randolph Babbitt, (Administrator, FAA), CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, NOV. 7, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from Nexis. Between 2007 and 2011, approximately $2.8 billion has been appropriated for NextGen. The FAA estimates the development of NextGen will require between $15 and $22 billion from 2012 to 2025. These figures represent important investments with substantial returns. Our latest estimates show that by 2018, NextGen air traffic management improvements will reduce total delays, in flight and on the ground, by approximately 35 percent, compared with what would happen if we maintained our current system. This delay reduction will provide $23 billion in cumulative benefits through 2018 to aircraft operators, the traveling public, and the FAA. Additionally, we will save about 1.4 billion gallons of aviation fuel during this period, cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 14 million tons. James May, (Pres., Air Transport Association), NEXTGEN: A REVIEW OF THE RTCA MID-TERM IMPLEMENTATION TASK FORCE REPORT, House Hrg., Oct. 28, 2009, 33. This is infrastructure investment that can pay off in the next few years, and that payoff is within our reach. To place this into perspective, if Congress and the Administration were to provide a level of funding comparable, just comparable to the funding for high speed rail projects in this year's stimulus legislation, NextGen would be an early reality.
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II. CONGRESS CURRENTLY REFUSES TO PROPERLY FUND THE COMPONENT PARTS OF NEXTGEN. A. CONGRESS REFUSES TO FUND NECESSARY SOFTWARE UPGRADES FOR NEXTGEN. 1. The En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM) software is critical to implement the NextGen transition. Dale Wright, (Dir., Technology, National Air Traffic Controllers Association), FAA REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 37. One of the earliest NextGen projects to be deployed will be the switch from the Host computer system, which currently serves as the technological backbone of en route air traffic control, to En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM). Host, which was originally deployed in the 1980s, is the mainframe computer processor which provides data to display terminals at en route air traffic control positions. It is expected to become unsustainable within the next 2 years, as the availability of new technology has made replacement parts for older computers harder to find. 2. Congress has refused to fund the ongoing development of ERAM software. NewsTex, FIERCE_GOVERNMENT_IT, Nov. 21, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from Nexis. Among the notable cuts made for fiscal 2012, which began Oct. 1 (Congress has been tardy in passing this year's appropriations bills) is no funding for En Route Automation Modernization D Position Upgrade and System Enhancements. According to the Senate Appropriations Committee, the FAA had asked to spend $64.5 million on ERAM upgrades. The final funding amount is $0. The upgrade, according to an FAA budget document is meant to correct some deficiencies within the current ERAM system, including automation deficiencies in airplane separation services; not taking full advantage of performance-based navigation, and; insufficient coordination of information between controllers. B. CONGRESS REFUSES TO FUND NECESSARY PLANNING FOR PROPER NEXTGEN IMPLEMENTATION. NewsTex, FIERCE_GOVERNMENT_IT, Nov. 21, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from Nexis. Other cuts include no funding for Network Enabled Weather (FAA requested $27.35 million, according to the Senate Appropriations Committee) and no funding for NextGen Joint Planning and Development Office research, engineering and development (FAA requested about $14.07 million, according to the committee). C. FUNDING CUTS ARE ESPECIALLY SHORT-SIGHTED, SINCE THE INVESTMENT IN NEXTGEN WOULD PAY FOR ITSELF. T.K. Kallenbach, (Vice President, Honeywell Aerospace), FAA REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 45. Aviation's impact on the U.S. economy cannot be understated. The FAA estimates that civil aviation contributes 11 million jobs and $1.2 trillion in economic activity, amounting to 5.6 percent of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, the Congressional Joint Economic Committee calculates that the cost of air traffic delays to the U.S. economy in 2007 was $41 billion? To put this in perspective, rough estimates of the total cost of implementing the NextGen system have been on the order of $50 billion—a little more than 1 year's cost of the delays NextGen can and should eliminate. ADVANTAGES: I. NEXTGEN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE SAFETY AND EFFICIENCY OF AIR TRANSPORTATION IN THE U.S. A. THE CURRENT RADAR-BASED SYSTEM IS HOPELESSLY OUTDATED. Chet Fuller, (Pres., GE Aviation Systems), NEXTGEN: AREA NAVIGATION (RNAV)/REQUIRED NAVIGATION PERFORMANCE (RNP), House Hrg., July 29, 2009, 9. Our current ATC system is outdated. It is a very large sky, but we don't use very much of it, and what we do use, we use pretty inefficiently. The airways we fly today are 8 nautical miles wide because they have to be. Radar was a technical wonder 50 years ago, but today it is an anachronism. Today's GPS equipped aircraft are almost always within a wingspan of airway centerline. The improved navigation accuracy in all four dimensions enables increased airspace capacity and efficiency. Byron Dorgan, (U.S. Sen., North Dakota), FAA REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 2. It is interesting that a teenager with a cell phone can track the exact whereabouts of 20 friends, and we can't track the exact whereabouts of an airplane, because we're using an old system. We generally know where they are— I'm not suggesting that the system doesn't understand where an airplane is flying, but it is the case that we are not using the more sophisticated capability from the GPS system. NextGen would allow us to do that. It would allow us to have a greater margin of safety, greater efficiencies with respect to the way we fly and the more direct routes that we fly, and less air pollution, certainly beneficial for the environment. All of these things are possible, and they are possible now with today's technology.
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B. NEXTGEN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE SAFETY AND EFFICIENCY OF AIR TRAVEL. Federal Aviation Administration, NEXTGEN IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, Mar. 2012, 8. Safety is the FAA's first priority. The NextGen systems, policies and procedures that we are implementing are designed to ensure that the U.S. air transportation system remains the safest in the world. Satellite-based surveillance improves upon radar by providing controllers with more frequent and more accurate aircraft location information. This information can also be delivered to the cockpit, offering operators of properly equipped aircraft unprecedented traffic awareness. Up-to-date weather and airspace status information delivered directly to the cockpit will enable operators to safely make better-informed decisions while new communications technologies hold the promise of reducing misunderstandings between controllers and flight crews by supplanting many voice transmissions with digital instructions. Ashley Halsey, (Staff), WASHINGTON POST, July 4, 2011, A1. If all the NextGen components were in place, pilots and air traffic controllers would receive precise position reports once every second. Pilots also would know the location, speed and direction of every plane around them, something they now get less complete information on by radio from controllers. Precision and the superior coverage of GPS, including for transoceanic flights, would allow direct flights. Overall, the FAA estimates the system would cut delays by 35 percent, save about 1.4 billion gallons of jet fuel and cut carbon dioxide emissions by 14 million tons in the next seven years. II. NEXTGEN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF AIR TRANSPORTATION. A. THE CURRENT INEFFICIENCY OF THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM NEEDLESSLY CONTRIBUTES TO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. T.K. Kallenbach, (Vice President, Honeywell Aerospace), FAA REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 46. The air traffic system in which we are required to operate creates inefficiencies that are estimated to be between 10 and 15 percent. For the airlines alone, this inefficiency resulted in more than 10 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emitted unnecessarily in 2008. This is equivalent to the annual emissions from the electrical use of more than 1.2 million U S households. This does not have to be the case; these emissions are preventable. B. EARLY IMPLEMENTATION OF NEXTGEN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. Aerospace Industries Association, NEXTGEN: THE FUTURE OF FLYING, June 2010, 1. In 2008, the U.S. Government Accountability Office advocated deployment of NextGen as soon as practicable to realize environmental benefits. NextGen's efficiencies will reduce noise, fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, as well as other air pollutants. The FAA estimates that full implementation of NextGen could reduce aircraft greenhouse emissions by as much as 12 percent by 2025 — a carbon dioxide reduction equivalent to removing 2.2 million cars from the roads for one year. III. NEXTGEN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE PASSENGER DELAYS DUE TO AIRPORT CONGESTION. A. PASSENGER DELAYS ARE CAUSED BY CURRENT LIMITATIONS IN THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM. Marcia Clemmitt, (Analyst, CQ Researcher), HOW SAFE IS AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 15. The spate of air-traffic delays that stranded thousands of vacation travelers is directly due to a lack of important upgrades to the air-traffic control system, says the ASCE's Mongan. Airports can't land as many planes as they could because outdated radar tracking systems make it unsafe to space planes as closely as modern GPS tracking systems would allow, he says. Michael Huerta, (Deputy Administrator, FAA), CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Oct. 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from Nexis. The current system simply cannot accommodate anticipated growth in the aviation industry. Congestion continues to increase at many of our nation's busiest hub airports, a problem that will only be exacerbated now that traffic levels are starting to rebound from the impact of the economic recession. B. NEXTGEN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE PASSENGER DELAYS. Federal Aviation Administration, NEXTGEN IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, Mar. 2012, 4. NextGen will be a better way of doing business. Travel will be more predictable because there will be fewer delays, less time sitting on the ground and holding in the air, with more flexibility to get around weather problems. Aerospace Industries Association, NEXTGEN: THE FUTURE OF FLYING, June 2010, 1. The FAA estimates that by 2018 NextGen will reduce total flight delays by better than 21 percent while providing $22 billion in cumulative benefits to the traveling public, aircraft operators and the FAA. Businesses related to or dependent on aviation risk losing as many as two million jobs every five years if the nation doesn't implement NextGen. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 19
TRANSIT: EQUITY IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT The thesis of this case is that the current pattern of transportation infrastructure investment discriminates against disadvantaged populations in America’s inner cities. Automobile ownership is beyond the reach of a significant percentage of inner city residents, making them entirely dependent on public transportation systems. Unfortunately, funding neglect of transit systems has created a transportation crisis for persons in greatest need of mobility assistance. Plan: The United States federal government will substantially increase its transportation infrastructure investment by adding $18.3 billion per year to the Mass Transit Account, to redress inequitable funding of mass transit systems in America’s inner cities. Funding will come from general federal revenues and the Federal Highway Trust Fund. Maintenance of effort rules will be applied for state and local government recipients of transit funds. OBSERVATIONS: I. DISADVANTAGED RESIDENTS IN AMERICA’S INNER CITIES HAVE A RIGHT TO TRANSPORTATION EQUITY. A. TRANSPORTATION IS THE KEY TO THE ENJOYMENT OF MOST BASIC RIGHTS. 1. The Supreme Court has declared mobility to be a basic right of Americans. Thomas Sanchez, (Prof., Urban Affairs, Virginia Tech), POVERTY AND RACE, July/Aug. 2010, 1. Transportation is vital. The Supreme Court has recognized the right to travel as one of the fundamental rights guaranteed by the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. 2. Equality of opportunity requires access to transportation. Wade Henderson, (CEO, The Leadership Conference), POVERTY AND RACE, July/Aug. 2010, 11. The American Dream is premised on the bedrock of equal opportunity—the ideal that those who live in the United States should have equal access to quality education, employment, housing, and certainly transportation, which most directly affects access to all of those things. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, WHERE WE NEED TO GO: A CIVIL RIGHTS ROADMAP FOR TRANSPORTATION EQUITY, March 2011, 1. Our civil rights laws bar employers, federal, state, and local governments, and public accommodations from discriminating in access to health care, employment opportunities, housing, education, and voting. Although our laws promise to open doors to opportunity, this is a hollow promise for people who are physically isolated from jobs, schools, stores that sell healthy food, and health care providers. As our metropolitan areas have expanded and jobs and services have become more diffuse, equal opportunity depends upon equal access to affordable transportation. 3. Access to health care requires transportation equity. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, TRANSPORTATION POLICY AND ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE, April 2011, 1. Lack of access to affordable transportation is a major contributor to health disparities. It isolates low-income people from health care facilities and forces families to spend a large percentage of their budgets on cars and other expensive options, at the expense of other needs, including health care. Our transportation policy also generates public health problems that disproportionately affect low-income communities and communities of color. As Congress considers a reauthorization of our nation's surface transportation programs, which will allocate significant federal funds to transportation infrastructure, civil and human rights advocates have an opportunity to advance public health through participation in the transportation policy making process. B. PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES HAVE THE RIGHT TO TRANSPORTATION EQUITY. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, EQUITY IN TRANSPORTATION FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES, 2012, 1. Though people with disabilities live in every community, our transportation policy has undermined the Americans with Disabilities Act's (ADA) promise of equal opportunity in transportation for people with disabilities, resulting in isolation from jobs, housing, health care, and education. As policymakers discuss such important issues as how best to rebuild and repair our nation's roads, bridges, railways, and ports, and where and how to prioritize investments in public transportation, it is vital that they take into consideration the needs of people with disabilities. C. RACIAL MINORITIES HAVE THE RIGHT TO TRANSPORTATION EQUITY. Thomas Sanchez, (Prof., Urban Affairs, Virginia Tech), POVERTY AND RACE, July/Aug. 2010, 6. Transportation mobility is a hallmark of full membership in American society. The early challenges related to racial discrimination and segregation involved discriminatory practices that directly limited transportation access and mobility of people of color. The effects of limited transportation mobility persist. The lack of mobility helped create ghettos, de facto segregated schools and housing, and social and community isolation and lack of cohesion. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 20
II. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IS INADEQUATE FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION EQUITY. A. CURRENT FEDERAL INVESTMENT IS SKEWED TOWARD HIGHWAYS AND AUTOMOTIVE TRANSPORTATION. 1. Inner city residents receive far less than their fair share of federal transportation funds. Marc Brenman, (Sr. Policy Adviser, The City Project), A NEW SOCIAL EQUITY AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, Mar. 8, 2012, 4. Planning that favors automobile travel is inequitable in several ways: Non-drivers as a group receive less than their fair share of transport funding which is unfair (horizontally inequitable). For example, in a typical urban area, 10-20% of trips are made by non-motorized modes yet only 2-5% of total government transportation budgets are devoted to non-motorized facilities, and an even small portion including private expenditures on parking facilities mandated in local zoning laws. 2. Federal highway grants require only a 20% state match, whereas public transportation grants require double that percentage. Christopher Dodd, (U.S. Sen., Connecticut), SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION SOLUTIONS: INVESTING IN TRANSIT TO MEET 21ST CENTURY CHALLENGES, Mar. 12, 2009, 2. Too often over the past half-century, transit has taken a back seat to funding of our roads and highways. And while the Federal Government is prepared to pick up 80 percent of the cost for new highway capacity projects, it generally pays less than half of that number for new transit projects. Nelson/Nygaard Consulting Associates, STRANDED AT THE STATION: THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, Aug. 2009, 1. As with all transportation systems in the U.S. — whether highways, airports, or transit — federal policy and funding determine whether any given mode reaches its potential. Currently, the federal government devotes 82 cents of every transportation dollar to roads and 18 percent to public transportation. Federal policy requires local taxpayers to match each federal dollar for public transportation with a dollar of their own, while requiring only a quarter match for roads. 3. Automotive transportation is heavily subsidized by government; the highway gas tax pays for only a small portion of the cost. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), THE FIRST CASUALTY OF A NON-EXISTENT WAR, Mar. 11, 2011, 5. Motor vehicle user fees only finance about half of roadway costs and a much smaller portion of parking facility costs; the rest is financed indirectly through general taxes (for local roads), higher retail prices (for business parking), lower wages (for employee parking), and higher housing costs (for residential parking). This funding structure forces people who drive less than average to subsidize their neighbors who drive more than average. Automobile travel also imposes other external costs, including congestion delays, accident risk, pollution emissions, and various economic and environmental costs from fuel consumption. B. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION REQUIRES ADDITIONAL FUNDING IN ORDER TO PROVIDE MOBILITY ACCESS. Federal Transit Administration, NATIONAL STATE OF GOOD REPAIR ASSESSMENT, 2010, 1. The study's estimates of the current investment backlog for the nation's transit agencies and the level of investment required to address that backlog over various time periods is provided below in Exhibit ES-2. Assuming assets are permitted to remain in service beyond their expected useful life for a limited time (an assumption based on current agency practices), TERM estimates a current national SGR [state of good repair] backlog of roughly $77.7 billion ($2009). Once this backlog has been addressed, an estimated annual average of $14.4 billion in normal replacement expenditures would be required to maintain that state of good repair. Alternatively, an annual investment of $18.3 billion is estimated as sufficient to attain SGR over a 20-year period while simultaneously addressing normal replacement needs (or $3.9 billion annually to address the backlog alone). ADVANTAGES: I. INCREASED INVESTMENT IN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE WILL PROVIDE EQUITY FOR PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES. A. PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY DENIED ACCESS TO TRANSPORTATION. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, EQUITY IN TRANSPORTATION FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES, 2012, 1. People with disabilities make up about 6 million (40 percent) of the almost 15 million people in this country who have difficulties getting the transportation they need. Because many people with disabilities do not have the option to drive cars, lack of access to other modes of transportation disproportionately harms them. About 560,000 people with disabilities never leave home because of transportation difficulties. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 21
B. FUNDING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION WILL PROVIDE ACCESS FOR PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, June 14, 2010, 15. Public transportation and transit-oriented development provide basic mobility and accessibility, particularly for physically and economically disadvantaged people, such as people with disabilities and lower-income seniors. This is important for public health and helps reduce healthcare costs. Inadequate mobility can cause patients to miss appointments, which exacerbates medical problems and wastes medical resources, or forces patients or health care agencies to pay for more costly transport, such as taxis. According to one survey, approximately 4% of U.S. children (3.2 million) were unable to access necessary medical services at least once during 2004 because of inadequate transportation. A survey of Americans aged 65 or older found that non-drivers make 15% fewer trips to the doctor; 59% fewer shopping trips and restaurant visits; and 65% fewer trips for social, family and religious activities compared with those who drive. II. INCREASED INVESTMENT IN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION INCREASES EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY. A. INNER CITY RESIDENTS ARE CURRENTLY DENIED EQUAL OPPORTUNITY IN EMPLOYMENT. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, WHERE WE NEED TO GO: A CIVIL RIGHTS ROADMAP FOR TRANSPORTATION EQUITY, March 2011, 3. According to the Brookings Institution, by 2006, 45 percent of jobs in our 98 largest metro areas were located more than 10 miles from the urban core. While jobs are increasingly moving to suburbs and remote exurbs, transportation options to and within these areas have not increased. As a result, low-income and minority populations, who disproportionately live in urban cores, face disproportionate barriers to securing and remaining in these jobs. B. FUNDING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION WILL PROVIDE ACCESS TO EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES. Nelson/Nygaard Consulting Associates, STRANDED AT THE STATION: THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, Aug. 2009, 4. Public transportation connecting low-income communities to jobs, then, is a necessity. It is essential to provide affordable and reliable access to employment opportunities for low-income workers. But transit also benefits regional economies, as businesses profit from a larger labor pool. Public transportation access is essential to ensuring that regional economies are equitable, fair, and benefit all of their citizens. III. INCREASED INVESTMENT IN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION WILL INCREASE ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE. A. INNER CITY RESIDENTS ARE LACK EQUAL ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE DUE TO MOBILITY ISSUES. Wade Henderson, (President, Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: PRIORITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR REAUTHORIZATION, Hrg., May 19, 2011, 102. Inadequate access to transportation has also exacerbated health disparities. Isolation from health care providers has serious consequences for many disadvantaged communities. Low-income patients miss appointments—often worsening their medical problems. And low-income people and people of color disproportionately lose out on educational and work opportunities due to health problems. B. FUNDING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION WILL INCREASE ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE. Wade Henderson, (President, Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: PRIORITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR REAUTHORIZATION, Hrg., May 19, 2011, 102. The high cost of transportation forces low-income families to limit spending for other basic needs, including out-of-pocket health care expenses and nutritious food. On the other hand, accessible and affordable transportation options can mean the difference between isolation and access to quality health care. IV. INCREASED INVESTMENT IN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION INCREASES EQUITY FOR RACIAL MINORITIES. A. TRANSPORTATION EQUITY DISPROPORTIONATELY IMPACTS RACIAL MINORITIES. Preston Schiller, (Prof., Urban Planning, Queen’s U.), AN INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, 2010, 18. In cities in the U.S., these issues also have a racial dimension. Very often transportation disadvantage and inequity are centered in communities with African-American and Hispanic populations. In the early era of freeway expansion, many of the expansive roads were built in ways that concentrated minority populations within the 'walls' of surrounding expressways with most of the old connecting streets severed by the new limited-access roads. B. INCREASED FUNDING FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION INCREASES EQUITY FOR MINORITIES. Nelson/Nygaard Consulting Associates, STRANDED AT THE STATION: THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, Aug. 2009, 6. Minorities and recent immigrants in particular depend on affordable and reliable transit services to reach everyday destinations, such as jobs, education and health care. African-Americans and Hispanics comprise a majority of the country's transit users, including 62 percent of bus and light rail riders, 35 percent of subway and heavy rail riders, and 29 percent of commuter rail riders. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 22
FIX-IT-FIRST: GETTING SERIOUS ABOUT HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE The thesis of this case is that federal transportation infrastructure spending is wastefully dedicated to special interest projects almost always involving new highway or bridge construction. Such spending is not an investment in America’s future. The United States federal government can substantially increase the quality of its transportation infrastructure investment by designated the entirety of federal highway funds to highway maintenance projects. Plan: 1. The United States federal government will substantially increase its transportation infrastructure investment by designating 70% of federal highway trust fund spending for highway maintenance projects. 2. This 70% requirement will leave unchanged the 10% of federal highway funds now designated for transportation enhancements and the 20% now designated for the Mass Transit Account. 3. The plan will be administered by a quasi-independent National Infrastructure Commission charged with disbursing federal funds, enforcing state and local maintenance of effort requirements, and ensuring that federal funds are utilized entirely for maintenance projects. CONTENTIONS: I. THE NEGLECT OF HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE IN AMERICA IS SIGNIFICANTLY HARMFUL. A. HIGHWAYS BUILT WITH FEDERAL FUNDS HAVE FALLEN INTO SIGNIFICANT DISREPAIR. Matthew E. Kahn, (Prof., Public Affairs, UCLA), FIX IT FIRST, EXPAND IT SECOND, REWARD IT THIRD: A NEW STRATEGY FOR AMERICA'S HIGHWAYS, Feb. 2011, 5. Unfortunately, we fail to realize the full benefit of our system of infrastructure and risk losing what we have because we are not investing enough to maintain aging bridges and highways and because we do not use the system as efficiently as we could. The existing transportation network represents long-lived capital: highways, bridges, and tunnels last for decades. Moreover, much of our existing highway network was built many years ago. For example, the average age of a bridge on the U.S. Interstate Highway system is more than forty-five years old; most bridges were designed for a lifespan of forty to fifty years. Over time, infrastructure deteriorates. Most of the time this deterioration is unheeded, but salient disasters remind us of the importance of updating aging infrastructure. The fatal collapse of the I-35W Mississippi River Bridge in Minneapolis brought needed attention to the question of the state of repair of America's bridges. Roads have similar, though not nearly as dramatic, issues: poor roads impose wear and tear costs on vehicles, can lead to accidents, and require further costs in packaging to avoid damaged freight. B. MAINTENANCE NEGLECT CAUSES A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DEATHS AND INJURIES. 1. Accidents on U.S. highways cause major death and suffering. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, AMERICA'S TOP FIVE TRANSPORTATION HEADACHES—AND THEIR REMEDIES, Jan. 2009, 3. Some 41,000 lives were lost on highways in 2007. Several factors are associated with vehicle crashes that result in fatalities, including vehicle and roadway characteristics and driver behavior. Highway safety experts estimate that roadway characteristics such as the number of lanes, whether traffic traveling in opposite directions is separated, lane widths and intersection design are a factor in approximately one-third of all fatal traffic accidents. 2. Poor highway maintenance is a major cause of accidents. Jim Hightower, (Journalist), HOW SAFE IS AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 47-48. Road and bridge conditions all across the country aren't just a mess—they're deadly. ASCE reports that bad and congested roads are a hidden tax that runs us $54 billion a year in car/truck repairs and excess operating costs, forces us to spend an average of 47 hours a year stuck in traffic (burning 2.3 billion gallons of gasoline in our idling vehicles), and—worst of all—causes some 13,000 highway deaths each year. Bridges, too, are a threat; ASCE finds that 27% of America's spans are now structurally deficient or functionally obsolete, requiring $9.4 billion every year for the next 20 years to repair the deficiencies. C. MAINTENANCE NEGLECT SIGNFICANTLY WASTES SCARCE PUBLIC RESOURCES. Roger Millar, (Analyst, Taxpayers for Common Sense), REPAIR PRIORITIES: TRANSPORTATION SPENDING STRATEGIES TO SAVE TAXPAYER DOLLARS AND IMPROVE ROADS, June 2011, 5. Neglecting repair and preservation costs taxpayers billions of dollars in preventable expenses. A few cracks and potholes might not seem like the makings of an impending budget crisis, but putting off repairs today means spending much more in the future. Repair costs rise exponentially when roads are not routinely maintained. According to the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), every $1 spent to keep a road in good condition avoids $6-14 needed later to rebuild the same road once it has deteriorated significantly. Underfunding repair and delaying these projects is inefficient and drives up future financial liabilities. Too much focus on expansion and too little on repair also means that with every dollar spent on new construction, states add to a system they are already failing to adequately maintain. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 23
D. MAINTENANCE NEGLECT IMPOSES SIGNIFICANT COSTS ON EVERY HIGHWAY USER. 1. Congestion on U.S. highways imposes significant costs throughout America. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, 25. According to the Texas Transportation Institute's annual survey of urban mobility, congestion cost American commuters $78 billion in 2007. That's almost 10 times the cost in 1982, the earliest year for which data are available. Commuters wasted more than 4 billion hours sitting in traffic in 2005, nearly five times the number of hours of delay 25 years before. Drivers also burned nearly 3 billion gallons of fuel sitting in traffic, again more than five times the amount wasted in 1982. In turn, this waste of fuel put more than 25 million tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. 2. Poor maintenance is a significant cause of highway congestion. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, xxii. Our outdated and overused road system is falling apart. Vehicular travel on America's roads increased 41 percent between 1990 and 2006, while miles of available road increased by only 4 percent. As a result, congestion has increased enormously. According to the 2009 Texas Urban Mobility Report, prepared by the Texas Transportation Institute, drivers in metropolitan areas spent 4.2 billion hours—nearly a full work week for every traveler—delayed in traffic in 2007. II. MAINTENANCE NEGLECT IS THE PREDICTABLE RESULT OF FLAWS IN FEDERAL HIGHWAY PROGRAMS. A. EARMARKS DISTORT FEDERAL HIGHWAY TRUST FUND ALLOCATIONS. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD, Apr. 2010, 28. Congressional earmarks—in which members of Congress bypass the administrative process of allocating merit- based funding and instead designate funding for specific projects—further tilt spending away from system preservation and maintenance. In the last transportation authorization bill (SAFETEA-LU), there were almost 6,000 earmarks totaling more than $13 billion. The most notorious of these earmarks designated $223 million for the "Bridge to Nowhere" between Ketchikan and Gravina Island in Alaska—which was raised as a major issue in congressional campaigns in 2006 and 2008, and in the 2008 presidential race. The primary beneficiaries of the project would have been the 7,000 residents of the Island, and the contractors put to work on the project. The Bridge to Nowhere was never built. However, this earmark and others carved out $100 million annually from the Highway Bridge Program for new bridge construction—a use of funds that normally would not be allowed. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 28-29. The funding for some programs authorized by SAFETEA-LU was 100 percent earmarked. For example, the 2005 transportation bill created a five-year, $1.8 billion program intended to identify and fund transportation projects of "national and regional significance." The program included a wide variety of criteria intended to prioritize projects based on their importance for the functioning of the transportation system nationwide. However, according to a report by the Bipartisan Policy Center, the winners of the grants were already predetermined in the text of the legislation. Members of Congress earmarked every dollar available to projects they deemed of importance to their districts, bypassing any national prioritization. B. LOBBYISTS ARE ACTIVE IN THE PROMOTION OF NEW HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION AT THE EXPENSE OF MAINTENANCE. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD, Apr. 2010, 21. Highway interests often push for new capacity projects, which can benefit new residential or commercial developments, as in the case of Concord Associates. Additionally, new capacity projects or major reconstruction projects often involve states issuing lucrative contracts to construction firms. In contrast, ongoing maintenance measures have little political constituency. Many state DOTs use state employees to perform their ongoing maintenance. New capacity projects have a well-financed and powerful lobby with a large profit motive pushing for them, while repair projects do not. If politics is allowed large influence over spending decisions, it is no surprise that repair and maintenance projects will lose out. C. POLITICAL PRESSURES MILITATE AGAINST THE FUNDING OF HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE. Matthew E. Kahn, (Prof., Public Affairs, UCLA), FIX IT FIRST, EXPAND IT SECOND, REWARD IT THIRD: A NEW STRATEGY FOR AMERICA'S HIGHWAYS, Feb. 2011, 23. This is a classic problem in transportation funding. Constituents often give more credit to policymakers for new projects than the less-noticeable upgrades of existing infrastructure. One of the reasons it is called "infrastructure" is that it is hidden from us in a way that we generally cannot see. Roads and transit are perhaps the most visible aspect of infrastructure, but even with these there is a bias to building the fresh and new over maintaining the existing. Most politicians and voters are simply unaware of the true state of deterioration of their local infrastructure. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 24
III. A FIX-IT-FIRST APPROACH WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THE QUALITY OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES. A. THE FIX-IT-FIRST INVESTMENT STRATEGY BEST ALLOCATES FEDERAL HIGHWAY EXPENDITURES. Matthew E. Kahn, (Prof., Public Affairs, UCLA), FIX IT FIRST, EXPAND IT SECOND, REWARD IT THIRD: A NEW STRATEGY FOR AMERICA'S HIGHWAYS, Feb. 2011, 12. To shift the investment focus to "Fix It First," we would restrict the use of the federal Highway Trust Fund (collected from highway user fees, including the federal gas tax) from adding capacity to the existing system. Instead, the funds primarily would be dedicated to maintain, repair, rehabilitate, reconstruct, replace, and enhance existing transportation infrastructure that is part of the NHS. Reserving the federal Highway Trust Fund for system preservation and enhancement would mean a boost in federal highway investment for these purposes of close to $12 billion per year. Combined with any additional revenues that states raised from increasing their gas taxes, these funds would put us on the right path toward repairing our nation's aging infrastructure. B. THE NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE COMMISSION WOULD DE-POLITICIZE TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 179-180. To oversee a national transportation strategy, we need a national infrastructure commission. This new group should include our most experienced transportation experts, finance experts, engineers, and scientists, who would be asked to define the nation's needs during the twenty-first century from a host of perspectives. It would propose ways to restore the most vulnerable 50 percent of our infrastructure stock to health. It would identify the latest in structural analyses and methodologies to determine if a bridge, tunnel, or highway is dangerously defective. It would assign qualified engineers and contractors to develop both a full remediation and an ongoing maintenance program; determine the actual cost needed to repair each structure; and ensure that qualified contractors with successful track records for on-time performance perform all work under true fixed-price contracts. C. THE FIX-IT-FIRST APPROACH OFFERS A FISCALLY-PRUDENT APPROACH TO TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 34. Many transportation experts argue that America should adopt a "Fix it First" approach to investment in our road and bridge infrastructure. The most fiscally prudent way to manage our transportation system is to make sure that structural and safety problems get addressed in a timely way—before roads or bridges must be closed or catastrophe strikes. We must recognize that the post-World War II highway-building boom is over, and we have entered a new era. Jonathan Miller, (Analyst, Urban Land Institute), INFRASTRUCTURE 2009: PIVOT POINT, 2009, 10. "Fix it first" should trump building new, especially since the government has not determined a long-term framework for planning national networks or funding them. "The last thing we should do is build new, when what we have is falling into ruin. You could spend all allocated dollars just on repairing and replacing failing bridges, and still need much more." D. THE FIX-IT-FIRST APPROACH WILL SAVE LIVES AND MONEY. Steven Malanga, (Sr. Fellow, Manhattan Institute), HOW SAFE IS AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 77. The stakes are high. Traffic congestion already costs our economy about $65 billion a year in lost productivity. Research also suggests that every $100 million invested in road maintenance and repair will save about 145 lives over the next decade. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, AMERICA'S TOP FIVE TRANSPORTATION HEADACHES—AND THEIR REMEDIES, Jan. 2009, 3. Highway improvements such as adding turn lanes, removing or shielding obstacles, adding medians, widening lanes, widening and paving shoulders, improving intersection layouts, providing better road markings, and installing or upgrading traffic signals, have been found to reduce the severity of serious traffic crashes. Roger Millar, (Analyst, Taxpayers for Common Sense), REPAIR PRIORITIES: TRANSPORTATION SPENDING STRATEGIES TO SAVE TAXPAYER DOLLARS AND IMPROVE ROADS, June 2011, 5. According to the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, every $1 spent to keep a road in good condition avoids $6-14 needed later to rebuild the same road once it has deteriorated significantly. Prioritizing repair and preservation makes good fiscal sense and brings with it a host of additional benefits.
AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 25
INLAND WATERWAYS: INVESTING TO PROTECT AMERICA’S FARMERS The thesis of this case is that proper maintenance of the U.S. system of inland waterways is critically important to America’s farm economy. U.S. agriculture is the breadbasket of the world, and inland waterways provide the primary means of delivering U.S. food products to export markets. Barge traffic is by far the most efficient transportation system for agricultural products. Unfortunately, the locks that enable barge traffic on the 12,000 miles of U.S. inland waterways have fallen into disrepair, threatening a major disruption in agricultural markets. The U.S. should invest in the proper maintenance of its locks and dams on inland waterways. Plan: 1. The United States federal government will substantially increase its transportation infrastructure investment by adopting the recommendation of the Inland Waterways Users Board to provide annual funding of $380 over the next twenty years to provide for the proper maintenance of infrastructure on inland waterways. 2. Funding will be derived from in equal parts from an increase in the waterway fuel tax and from general federal revenues. OBSERVATIONS: I. THE U.S. HAS A COMPELLING NATIONAL INTEREST IN FACILITATING AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS. A. PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS ESTABLISHED A NATIONAL GOAL OF DOUBLING AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS. Mike Strain, (Commissioner, Louisiana Dept. of Agriculture), REALIZE AMERICA’S MARITIME PROMISE ACT, FEB. 1, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 15, 2012 from http://waysandmeans.house.gov/UploadedFiles/Strain201os.pdf. The passage of the three free trade agreements with Colombia, Panama, and Korea are an important building block in President Obama's quest to double U.S. exports by the end of 2014. Passage of these agreements means over $2.3 billion in additional agriculture exports, supporting nearly 20,000 jobs in the U.S., according to the USDA. Because agricultural exports move in bulk, water-borne freight will grow as goods are carried by barge down the Mississippi river to the Gulf of Mexico. The agreements will particularly increase trade for a range of agricultural products that rely heavily on the Mississippi river system, including soybeans, poultry, rice, cotton, and corn. It is imperative that we keep our waterways open to commerce if we are to see this happen. B. FOOD IS IN SHORT SUPPLY IN MANY REGIONS OF THE GLOBE. United States Soybean Board, (Analyst, Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy), FEEDING THE WORLD? TWELVE YEARS LATER, U.S. GRAIN EXPORTS ARE UP, SO TOO IS HUNGER, Dec. 7, 2011, 2. As the holiday season comes upon us, we are reminded of those less fortunate than ourselves. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, more than 1 billion people go hungry every day, and with the United Nations (U.N.) predicting the population to top 9 billion by 2050 this number will surely increase. The U.N. also claims the growing global population means that agricultural production may need to increase by 70 percent using the same amount of land and water. II. U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ARE HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON INLAND WATERWAYS FOR THE DELIVERY OF THEIR CROPS. A. THE MAJORITY OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS MOVE THROUGH INLAND WATERWAYS. Jacqui Fatka, (Staff), FOODSTUFFS, Feb. 6, 2012, 5. Inland waterways represent key infrastructure for transporting U.S. soybeans. Up to 89% of soybeans exported through the Lower Mississippi River ports, such as the Port of New Orleans, La., arrive at those ports in barges that must transit multiple locks for the trip downstream. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, INLAND WATERWAY NAVIGATION: VALUE TO THE NATION, Jan. 2010, 1. More than 60 percent of farm exports move on inland waterways such as the Lower Mississippi or Columbia rivers to downstream ports such as New Orleans for shipment overseas. Nearly 80 million tons of grain move by barge annually. B. IN MANY INSTANCES, THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE TO BARGE TRANSPORTATION. Larry Bray, (Prof., Center for Transportation Research, U. Tennessee), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 71. The use of inland waterways to support freight transportation saves shippers (and their customers) billions of dollars annually. Moreover, in some cases, the freight that moves by water cannot be moved any other way. In these cases, the value of available barge transportation is literally incalculable. III. BARGE TRANSPORTATION OFFERS SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGES OVER AVAILABLE ALTERNATIVES. A. ONE BARGE CARRIES THE CARGO THAT WOULD OTHERWISE REQUIRE THOUSANDS OF TRAILER TRUCKS. John Duncan, Jr., (U.S. Rep., Tennessee), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 5. One 15-barge tow on a river can carry as much cargo as 216 rail cars or 1,050 large trucks. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 26
B. BARGE TRANSPORTATION HAS MUCH LESS IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT. Mike Toohey, (President, Waterways Council), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 143. Environmentally, the TTI [Texas Transportation Institute] study showed that inland barge transportation produces far fewer emissions of carbon dioxide for each ton of cargo moved than trucks or railroads. When comparing emissions per ton-mile, TTI calculated that transportation by rail emits 39% more carbon dioxide, and transportation by truck emits 371% more carbon dioxide, than transportation by inland barge. C. BARGE TRANSPORTATION IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS EXPENSIVE THAN ALTERNATIVE METHODS. Len Boselovic, (Staff), PITTSBURGH POST-GAZETTE, Mar. 20, 2012, A1. Locks and dams make it possible to move about 550 million tons of coal, grain, petroleum and other vital commodities at a price more than $14 per ton cheaper than by rail or truck, according to a 2010 report by a Corps- industry task force. Without the barges, more trucks would clog the nation's highways—it takes more than 1,000 trucks to carry the coal that a standard 15-barge tow can move. CONTENTIONS: I. U.S. INLAND WATERWAYS HAVE FALLEN INTO A STATE OF DISREPAIR. A. MUCH OF U.S. INLAND WATERWAY INFRASTRUCTURE IS NOW IN DANGER OF COLLAPSE. Michael Charles, (Sr. Manager for Government Relations, American Society of Civil Engineers), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 12. The current system of inland waterways lacks resilience. Waterway usage is increasing, but facilities are aging and many are well past their design life of 50 years. Recovery from any event of significance would be negatively impacted by the age and deteriorating condition of the system, posing a direct threat to the American economy. B. DISREPAIR AND DESIGN FLAWS ARE CREATING BACKLOGS ALL ALONG THE RIVER SYSTEM. C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), AMERICA'S LOCKS & DAMS: "A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?", Dec. 2011, 4. The overall average waiting time in 2000 was around 150 minutes and declined to around 50 minutes in 2004, then increased in the following years, peaking in 2010 at more than 200 minutes. In both the annual and monthly average waiting times, Ohio River Lock 52 is a bottleneck lock for the following reasons: (1) it averages the highest waiting time; (2) it exhibits the most volatile seasonal variations; and (3) waiting times have increased substantially during the last few years. II. CURRENT INVESTMENT IN INLAND WATERWAY INFRASTRUCTURE IS INHERENTLY FLAWED. A. BUDGET CUTS FOR THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS MAKE MAINTENANCE IMPOSSIBLE. Bob Gibbs, (U.S. Rep., Ohio), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 4. The House-passed fiscal year 2012 funding bill for the Corps further reduces the level of funding for the Corps by 11.5 percent, when compared to fiscal year 2010 levels, including a remarkable cut of 20.5 percent to the Corps' construction account, and an additional 38.2 percent reduction for the Corps' work along the Mississippi River. B. THE BUDGET SYSTEM IS BROKEN; CONGRESS AUTHORIZES FUNDING FOR REPAIRS, BUT THEN FAILS TO APPROPRIATE THE FUNDS AS PROMISED. National Corn Growers Association, STATES NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 29, 2012. Retrieved 4/15/2012 from Nexis. Government and industry officials agree that the precarious state of the waterway system stems from a flawed method of maintaining and replacing aging locks and dams. Despite authorizing a bill that would create $8 billion in projects that would replace or rehabilitate aging river infrastructure, it did not fully fund these projects at that time. Instead, the projects are funded in a piecemeal fashion, slapping Band-Aids on the gushing wound. This approach has led to significant cost overruns and construction delays counted in decades, not months or years. III. ACTION NOW TO PRESERVE AMERICA’S INLAND WATERWAYS WILL PREVENT IRREPARABLE HARM. Larry Bray, (Prof., Center for Transportation Research, U. Tennessee), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 77. If we forego waterway investments that later prove to have been in the public's best interest, we may well have created a harm that cannot be fixed. Technically, navigation capacity, once lost, could probably be restored, but the resources necessary for this restoration would be remarkably large. This sort of potential punishment is not simply hypothetical outcome. It is, instead, a scenario that was played out countless times within the railroad industry during the latter half of the Twentieth Century. If you ask the currently retiring generation of railroaders about regrets, wrongly-abandoned routes that can never be restored will top many lists. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 27
PORT SECURITY: CONFRONTING THE THREAT FROM NUCLEAR TERRORISM The thesis of this case is that U.S. ports of entry are vulnerable to terrorist attacks. This is especially unfortunate, given that nuclear terrorism now represents the greatest threat to the future of the United States. THE U.S. Coast Guard has been assigned the responsibility of protecting U.S. ports. Yet, at present, the U.S. Coast Guard is denied the infrastructure investment necessary to carry out its mission. As a result, U.S. national security is at risk. Plan: The United States federal government will substantially increase its transportation infrastructure investment by adding $1.4 billion annually to the funding of the U.S. Coast Guard allowing for the addition of five Maritime Safety and Security Teams, two National Security Cutters, and 1,000 security personnel to the size of the force. Funding will be redirected from military spending in Afghanistan as the previously planned troop withdrawal proceeds. CONTENTIONS: I. NUCLEAR TERRORISM IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT IN AMERICAN SEAPORTS. A. TERRORISTS HAVE THE MOTIVATION TO PLAN A NUCLEAR ATTACK ON THE U.S. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, 170. Should terrorists succeed in getting a nuclear bomb, there would be a terrible danger that they would use it, incinerating the heart of a major city. Indeed, an al-Qaeda spokesman has argued explicitly that al-Qaeda has the "right" to kill four million Americans in response to what the group sees as U.S. aggressions against the Islamic world. Barak Mendelsohn, (Prof., Political Science, Haverford College), COMBATING JIHADISM: AMERICAN HEGEMONY AND INTERSTATE COOPERATION IN THE WAR ON TERRORISM, 2009, 77. An abundance of evidence proves that al Qaeda has been actively seeking to obtain WMD. After initially focusing exclusively on the acquisition of nuclear weapons, the network gradually began to consider biological and chemical weapons as well. Al Qaeda tried to buy radioactive material for nuclear weapons as early as 1994. James Forest, (Dir., Terrorism Studies, U.S. Military Academy), JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 98. All of the available intelligence indicates that members of al-Qa'ida--all dimensions, al-Qa'ida central and its supporters and inspired cells—are keenly interested in acquiring CBRN [chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear] weapons. Al-Qa'ida central seeks to develop or acquire these weapons through the resurrected work of Abu Khabab, and the movement as a whole encourages this through the proliferation of WMD manuals on the Internet. The economic damage these weapons could inflict would surely aid them in their quest to degrade the strength and political will of the United States and reduce our willingness to maintain a presence in the Middle East or to support the "infidel, corrupt regimes" in the region that are the true intermediate-term targets of al-Qa'ida's wrath. While conventional explosives and suicide bombings will remain predominant in the jihadist milieu, it is only a matter of time before their motivations and opportunities converge to produce a WMD attack. B. THE RISK THAT TERRORISTS MAY ACQUIRE NUCLEAR WEAPONS IS SIGNIFICANT. Charles Blair, (Dir., Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies), JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 204. For over fifteen years, there have been reports of jihadist groups attempting to procure intact nuclear devices. To date, these efforts are believed to have been unsuccessful, yet by all indications it appears that the quest continues. David Mason, (Prof., Political Science, Butler U.), THE END OF THE AMERICAN CENTURY, 2009, 148. In Russia, for example, thousands of low-yield "tactical" nuclear weapons (some of which are as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb) are not well secured, and even their numbers and locations are uncertain. A terrorist group could buy or steal such a weapon. Graham Allison, (Dir., Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard U.), TERRORISM, 2009, 76. Thefts of weapons-usable material and attempts to steal nuclear weapons are not a hypothetical possibility, but a proven and recurring fact. Thousands of weapons and tens of thousands of potential weapons (softball-size lumps of highly enriched uranium and plutonium) remain today in unsecured storage facilities in Russia, vulnerable to theft by determined criminals who could then sell them to terrorists. In the years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, there have been hundreds of confirmed cases of successful theft of nuclear materials in which the thieves were captured, sometimes in Russia, on other occasions in the Czech Republic, Germany, and elsewhere. Every month those who follow current events closely will learn of yet another occasion in which nuclear material was stolen or a theft attempted. C. U.S. SEAPORTS ARE LIKELY TARGETS FOR A NUCLEAR TERRORIST ATTACK. Kenneth Christopher, (Prof., Criminal Justice, Park U.), PORT SECURITY MANAGEMENT, 2009, 13. Scenarios involving the dispersal of radiological materials or nuclear detonation and extended port operational disruptions have been identified as a major risk to the container shipping industry. Indications are that global terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda are interested in causing economic harm to a targeted country or region as they carry out their plans. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 28
Pamela Collins, (Prof., Homeland Security, Eastern Kentucky U.), HOMELAND SECURITY AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION, 2009, 105. Ports in particular have inherent security vulnerabilities: they are sprawling, easily accessible by water and land, close to crowded metropolitan areas, and interwoven with complex transportation networks. Port facilities, along with the ships and barges that transit port waterways, are especially vulnerable to tampering, theft, and unauthorized persons gaining entry to collect information and commit unlawful or hostile acts. D. A TERRORIST ATTACK ON A U.S. SEAPORT WOULD HAVE A DEVASTATING IMPACT. Kay Bailey Hutchison, (U.S. Sen., Texas), SAFE PORT ACT REAUTHORIZATION: SECURING OUR NATION'S CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, Senate Hrg., July 21, 2010, 3-4. The Brookings Institution estimated that a detonated weapon of mass destruction at an American port could cost $1 trillion to the national economy. So, it is the job of the Department of Homeland Security, with assistance from other entities in the Administration—certainly the Coast Guard, as well—Congress, State and local governments, and industry stakeholders, to be able to work seamlessly together. It's going to take the contribution of all of these entities to prevent any kind of devastating terrorist activity in our ports. Jeffrey Richelson, (Sr. Fellow, National Security Archives), DEFUSING ARMAGEDDON: INSIDE NEST: AMERICA’S SECRET NUCLEAR BOMB SQUAD, 2009, 218. A 2006 RAND study examined the likely costs in lives, property, dollars, and disruption following the detonation of a ten-kiloton device smuggled into the Port of Long Beach in a shipping container. Sixty thousand lives and six hundred thousand homes would be lost. One billion square feet of commercial property would be destroyed while three million people would be evacuated for three years. The financial costs associated with all those consequences, when added to the costs of the damage to the port and surrounding infrastructure and worker's compensation claims, would total about $1 trillion. II. CURRENT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS ARE INADEQUATE TO PROTECT AGAINST NUCLEAR TERRORISM. A. ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF INCOMING CARGO IS PROPERLY SCANNED. John Rockefeller, (U.S. Sen., West Va.), SAFE PORT ACT REAUTHORIZATION: SECURING OUR NATION'S CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, Senate Hrg., July 21, 2010, 36. Three years ago, Congress acted to require 100-percent scanning of all containers coming to the country. However, last year the GAO found out that we were only scanning less than 5 percent of all U.S.-bound containers, and that 100-percent screening has not been achieved at even a single port. Richard English, (Prof., Politics, Queens U.), TERRORISM: HOW TO RESPOND, 2009, 17. How difficult would it be to smuggle a nuclear device into, for example, the United States? Only a tiny fraction of containers imported into the USA are physically inspected; and the smuggling of materials into the country is, it seems, comparatively easy. This is particularly relevant given that terrorist use of a small weapon or an elementary device is one likely option. B. THE U.S. COAST GUARD HAS BEEN ASSIGNED THE MISSION OF PROTECTING U.S. PORTS. Robert Papp, (Admiral & Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard), SAFE PORT ACT REAUTHORIZATION: SECURING OUR NATION'S CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, Senate Hrg., July 21, 2010, 10-11. The Coast Guard employs a holistic layered approach to maritime security that is designed to detect, deter, and prevent the methods of terror and terrorists as early as possible in the event chain This approach requires rigorous analysis of the terrorist threat and corresponding risk-reduction strategies and tactics. Lawrence Korb, (Former Assistant Secretary of Defense & Sr. Fellow, Center for American Progress), NEW YORK TIMES, Feb. 27, 2010, A21. Beyond combating drug smuggling and international piracy, the 41,000-member Coast Guard is our nation's first line of defense against nuclear terrorism. If someone wanted to detonate a nuclear bomb in this country, would he be more likely to launch it on a missile with a return address, or would he try to smuggle it in a container through one of our ports? The latter, obviously—and the Coast Guard's Port Security Units would play a pivotal role in stopping him. C. THE U.S. COAST GUARD IS CURRENT DENIED THE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NECESSARY TO PROTECT U.S. PORTS. Carle Nolte, (Staff), SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE, Feb. 25, 2012, C1. [Admiral] Papp was in Alameda on Thursday to deliver his annual national State of the Coast Guard address, generally an upbeat message about the present and future of the Coast Guard—and he said proposed federal budget cuts to the nation's military are creating "uncertain and stormy seas." The Coast Guard's share of those cuts amounts to a reduction of about $350 million from last year's budget. "Doing more with less is not an acceptable option," Papp said. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 29
Homeland Security Today, NEW HOMELAND SECURITY BILL, Mar. 22, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 16, 2012 from http://www.hstoday.us/focused-topics/customs-immigration/single-article-page/new-port-security-bill-would-help- prevent-threats-from-reaching-us-shores-as-white-house-seeks-to-cut-coast-guard.html. Representatives John Mica (R-FL), chairman of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ), chairman of the Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee, Thursday wrote to the House Appropriations Committee to express their concern that “President Obama’s reckless cuts to the service will leave it unable to successfully perform its critical missions.” “We strongly oppose President Obama’s proposal to slash this account,” Mica and LoBiondo wrote. “These cuts threaten the ability of the Coast Guard to protect lives and property, defend our borders, and secure our ports, waterways, and coasts.” Carlo Munoz, (Staff), DEFENSE DAILY, Mar. 14, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 5, 2012 from Nexis. Since its formation in 2004, the Coast Guard only has one MSRT [Maritime Safety and Security Teams] in the field to respond to a growing slate of terrorism threats on the sea. With only one team on station to conduct such specialized missions, the Coast Guard will be at a distinct disadvantage should an attack like the recent one onboard the C.V. Quest or the hijacking of the MV Maersk Alabama in 2009 occur in U.S. waters. Lawrence Korb, (Former Assistant Secretary of Defense & Sr. Fellow, Center for American Progress), NEW YORK TIMES, Feb. 27, 2010, A21. The average ''high endurance'' cutter is 41 years old, compared to 14 years for the average Navy ship. The fleet's deteriorating condition, in the words of the Coast Guard commandant, Adm. Thad Allen, is ''putting our crews at risk, jeopardizing the ability to do our job.'' Carle Nolte, (Staff), SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE, Feb. 25, 2012, C1. The National Security Cutters are the big-ticket centerpieces of the Coast Guard's future - "the flagship of the Coast Guard's fleet," the service calls them. The original plan was to build eight of them, but the three at Alameda Thursday are the only ones put into service so far. Contracts have been awarded for two more. Funds for the sixth cutter are in the 2013 budget, but there are no funds for the seventh and eighth vessels. In an interview with The Chronicle, Papp made a special point of making a case for the last two cutters. The Coast Guard's older ships—378- foot-long high-endurance cutters—are simply worn out, he said. Some of them are more than 45 years old, ancient for a ship that gets hard use. And several of the older cutters have been operating at only 75 percent capacity because of repairs, Papp said. This means they can't patrol as often as they optimally should, he said. "We want them to be under way six months of the year," he said. Right now the older ones can't meet that goal. III. INCREASED COAST GUARD INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT WILL BEST PROTECT THE U.S. AGAINST NUCLEAR TERRORISM. A. COAST GUARD RESOURCES ARE PROPERLY REGARDED AS TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE. Robert Papp, (Admiral & Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard), SAFE PORT ACT REAUTHORIZATION: SECURING OUR NATION'S CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, Senate Hrg., July 21, 2010, 7. Ensuring the availability of our Coast Guard cutters, aircraft, boats, and supporting systems and infrastructure to conduct these activities has become increasingly challenging. Robert Papp, (Admiral & Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard), SAFE PORT ACT REAUTHORIZATION: SECURING OUR NATION'S CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, Senate Hrg., July 21, 2010, 41. Obviously, some very difficult decisions were made when putting together the 2011 budget. There were tradeoffs made to continue the recapitalization of our infrastructure, — those versatile and adaptable aircraft, boats, and ships that I talked about earlier, and to sustain some short-term reductions in other activities in order to pay for that. B. PROPER FUNDING OF COAST GUARD ASSETS BEST PROTECTS AGAINST NUCLEAR TERRORISM. Pamela Collins, (Prof., Homeland Security, Eastern Kentucky U.), HOMELAND SECURITY AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION, 2009, 105. As security measures at ports of entry, land-border crossings, and airports become more robust, criminals and terrorists will increasingly consider the lengthy U.S. coastline with its miles of uninhabited areas as a less risky alternative for unlawful entry into the United States. The United States must therefore patrol, monitor, and exert unambiguous control over its maritime borders and maritime approaches. At-sea presence deters adversaries and lawbreakers, provides better mobile surveillance coverage, adds to warning time, allows seizing the initiative to influence events at a distance, and facilitates the capability to surprise and engage adversaries well before they can cause harm to the United States. Robert Papp, (Admiral & Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard), SAFE PORT ACT REAUTHORIZATION: SECURING OUR NATION'S CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, Senate Hrg., July 21, 2010, 6. As I stated, 3,235 days have passed since 9/11. And while we've worked tirelessly to enhance our maritime, homeland, and port security, we must not let our guard down. We need to be looking to undertake initiatives that will tighten the security net in our ports, particularly with respect to the threat posed by small vessels. These initiatives include, amongst others, continuing to strengthen an already robust Federal, State, and local partnerships, working to formalize programs like America's Waterways Watch to incorporate the presence of professional mariners and recreational boaters into a coordinated effort. More vessels on the water can only mean greater security. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 30
SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL: FACILITATING A WALKING LIFESTYLE The thesis of this case is that transportation infrastructure in America has created a car-dependent culture and a sedentary lifestyle. Sidewalks and bicycle lanes have, for decades, been only afterthoughts in infrastructure planning. As a result, pedestrians and cyclists are often the victims in traffic accidents. Parents now typically drive their children to school, even when the destination is only blocks away. Generations of young people are being conditioned to accept driving, rather than walking or cycling as the normal form of transportation. The Safe Routes to School program seeks to modify transportation planning so as to integrate walking and cycling into the normal lifestyles of America’s youth. Plan: The United States federal government will substantially increase its transportation infrastructure investment by doubling the funding of the federal Safe Routes to School program, to $1.9 billion over the next six years. Funding will be derived from a 1 cent per gallon increase in the federal gasoline and diesel tax. CONTENTIONS: I. OBESITY IS A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM FOR AMERICAN YOUNG PEOPLE. A. OBESITY AMONG AMERICAN YOUNG PEOPLE IS ON THE INCREASE. Elizabeth Callaghan, (Administrator, Hernando County Health Department), ST. PETERSBURG TIMES, Oct. 5, 2011, 2. Since 1980, the obesity rate among children has almost tripled. The number of overweight children has quadrupled. Young people are developing weight-related chronic health problems such as high blood pressure, diabetes and musculoskeletal pain, hindering their ability to face the physical demands of everyday life. In such a serious public health crisis, even a simple concept such as walking to school is a change that can make a significant impact. Zach Wamp, (U.S. Rep., Tennessee), THE HILL, May 12, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 from Nexis. Childhood obesity is a national problem approaching epidemic proportions. This unprecedented rise in obesity directly correlates to the decrease in physical activity. Helping children adopt a healthier lifestyle now will give them a better chance to live a long and productive life. And given the attention to public health and health care services, healthier children will save $190 billion per year spent on treating obesity-related diseases. Left unaddressed, seven in 10 Americans will die from chronic diseases, such as type 2 diabetes, obesity and hypertension. Children who are physically well do much better in schools and avoid the chronic health consequences of a sedentary lifestyle. Henrie Treadwell, (Staff), ATLANTA DAILY WORLD, Aug. 19, 2010, 7. Researchers, physicians and policymakers are increasingly recognizing the physical and mental health threats stemming from the wave of childhood obesity sweeping across the country. It is equally important that the search for solutions focuses on the root causes—the school, economic and community conditions that are incubators for this epidemic. Clearly, the latest data indicate that the United States faces an obesity crisis, particularly among children. According to a report by the Trust for America's Health (TAH) and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, obesity rates increased in 28 states over the past year, with 38 (more than two-thirds of the states) having adult rates above 25 percent. Further, the increases among children have raised considerable concern, since researchers now believe that obesity impacts learning, mental health and social behavior. B. OBESITY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPAIRS THE HEALTH OF AMERICAN YOUNG PEOPLE. Nancy Churnin, (Staff), DALLAS MORNING NEWS, July 12, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 from Nexis. Obesity is at the root of many of the health problems once thought of as rare in children. A 2005 report in The New England Journal of Medicine projected that childhood obesity, which has tripled in the past 30 years, may cut two to five years from the life expectancy of the current generation. Obesity is a driver for bone and joint problems and sleep apnea in children. It has been speculated to be a factor in the rise in girls reaching puberty earlier than any generation in modern history, with about 15 percent of girls in the United States starting by age 7, a figure noted in a 2010 study in Pediatrics. Obesity also puts children at a heightened risk for adult heart disease, stroke and several types of cancer, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Lin Lin, (Ph.D., Research Associate, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, U. Washington), SCHOOL- BASED TRAVEL: A MOBILITY ASSESSMENT, Feb. 2011, 3. Awareness of the gravity of the risk that obesity poses to the health of children is gradually dawning on researchers. Obese children can become obese adults and suffer health problems as a result. Many obesity-related health conditions once thought applicable only to adults are now being seen in children and with increasing frequency. Furthermore, obesity in childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood may accelerate the development of heart diseases, and other obesity-related disorders. If current trends continue, a recent study has projected that the prevalence of overweight in children would reach 30% by 2030. The public health profession considers childhood obesity to be an issue of utmost public health concern. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 31
II. POORLY PLANNED TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT CAUSE OF OBESITY. A. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ACTIVELY DISCOURAGES WALKING AND CYCLING. 1. Roadways often make no provision for pedestrians or bicycles. Marcelle Fischler, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Dec. 4, 2011, 10. "For decades when builders were building subdivisions and single-family homes,'' Mr. Lesko said, ''they often didn't include curbs, certainly didn't have sidewalks, definitely not bike lanes, and weren't pedestrian- friendly.'' 2. Improperly designed infrastructure leads to disproportionate injuries for pedestrians and cyclists. Michelle Ernst, (Analyst, Transportation for America), DANGEROUS BY DESIGN, 2011, 1. The decades-long neglect of pedestrian safety in the design and use of American streets is exacting a heavy toll on our lives. In the last decade, from 2000 through 2009, more than 47,700 pedestrians were killed in the United States, the equivalent of a jumbo jet full of passengers crashing roughly every month. On top of that, more than 688,000 pedestrians were injured over the decade, a number equivalent to a pedestrian being struck by a car or truck every 7 minutes. 3. Safety concerns cause parents to drive children to school rather than to allow them to walk. Michelle Ernst, (Analyst, Transportation for America), DANGEROUS BY DESIGN, 2011, 21. Pedestrian injury is the third leading cause of death by unintentional injury for children 15 and younger, according to CDC mortality data. Nearly 3,900 children 15 years and younger were killed while walking from 2000 through 2007, representing between 25 and 30 percent of all traffic deaths. These numbers are especially high considering that only a fraction of children today walk or bicycle to school, in large part because of their parents' fears of traffic. When surveyed, parents express concerns about a range of perceived safety hazards: the amount of traffic on roads (71.3 percent), the speed of traffic (69.8 percent), inadequate or missing sidewalks (48.6 percent) and poor quality or missing crosswalks (39 percent). B. DISCOURAGING WALKING AND CYCLING LEADS TO OBESITY. Earl Blumenauer, (U.S. Rep., Oregon), CONGRESSIONAL RECORD, Feb. 15, 2012, H731. A generation ago, 40 or 50 percent of children were able to get to school on their own. Now only 13 percent can. It's no wonder that childhood obesity has exploded over the same period of time, with one in three of our children now overweight or obese or seriously at risk. Asthma has gone up for children 74 percent over the last 5 years. There are real consequences for accidents. There were 23,000 5- to 15-year-olds injured, and more than 250 kids killed walking or biking in 2009. Getting our children to school in the morning represents 10 to 14 percent of the entire American morning commute, 6.5 billion trips stretching 30 billion miles. Doesn't it make sense to do something about the congestion, the injuries, deaths, and the obesity? III. CURRENT FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMS FAIL TO ADEQUATELY PROMOTE AN ACTIVE LIFESTYLE. A. CURRENT FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMS UNDULY ADVANTAGE MOTORISTS. Michelle Ernst, (Analyst, Transportation for America), DANGEROUS BY DESIGN, 2011, 27. Too many arterial roads, in rural, suburban, and urban areas alike, are simply not built with pedestrians in mind. They lack sidewalks, crosswalks, pedestrian refuges, street lighting and school and public bus shelters. Even neighborhoods that do provide sidewalks often lack crosswalks or have crosswalks spaced too far apart to be convenient for pedestrians. A recent AARP poll sheds light on how widespread this problem is: nearly half of respondents reported that they could not safely cross the main roads close to their home. John LaPlant, (Chief Transportation Planning Engineer, T.Y. Lin, International, Inc.), ITE JOURNAL, May 2008, 24. Transportation projects typically begin with an automobile-oriented problem—increasing average daily traffic or deteriorating level of service (LOS). The performance of the right of way for bicyclists, pedestrians and transit riders or transit vehicles often is not measured. Roadway classification is similarly oriented toward auto mobility. B. THE SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL PROGRAM IS WELL DESIGNED, BUT IS FUNDED AS LITTLE MORE THAN A PILOT PROGRAM. Anne Moudon, (Prof., Urban Planning, U. Washington), Safe Routes to School (SRTS): Statewide Mobility Assessment, Jan. 2010, viii. The Federal Safe Routes to School (SRTS) program provides funding for local projects that make it safer for more children to walk or bike to school. Federal SRTS funds are administered through each state department of transportation. In most states, demand for federally funded SRTS projects exceeds the funds available by a factor of three or four. This indicates that (a) the amount of SRTS funding available for states is insufficient. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 32
Michelle Ernst, (Analyst, Transportation for America), DANGEROUS BY DESIGN, 2011, 31. At its current funding level of $950 million from FY2005-FY2011, the federal Safe Routes to School program is oversubscribed. While 10,000 schools have received funding thus far, that represents just 10 percent of schools — and the award size will only allow funded schools to address a portion of the needed safety improvements around each school. The Safe Routes to School program has provided a critical prioritization of safety improvements for vulnerable children in and around schools, where children spend a large part of their day. Because of this funding source, local governments and school districts are collaborating to assess the infrastructure around schools and agree upon projects needed to improve safety. Expanding the Safe Routes to School program would allow more communities and schools across the country to address critical safety concerns and make it safer for students walking and bicycling to school and in their neighborhoods. IV. PROPER SUPPORT FOR THE SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL PROGRAM WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT FOR AN ACTIVE LIFESTYLE. A. EXPANDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR PEDESTRIANS AND CYCLISTS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT. Kristen Swanson, (Analyst, Alliance for Biking and Walking), BICYCLING AND WALKING IN THE UNITED STATES, 2012, 184. Building infrastructure for bicycling and walking is also affordable. For the cost of 1 mile of four-lane urban highway, hundreds of miles of pedestrian and bicyclist facilities can be built. This investment, approximately $50 million, could complete the active transportation network of a mid-sized city. Michelle Ernst, (Analyst, Transportation for America), DANGEROUS BY DESIGN, 2011, 6. Fortunately, improving the pedestrian environment requires a relatively small public investment, one greatly outweighed by the cost savings that would result from reducing traffic-related fatalities and improving health. Congress has an opportunity to help communities fix past mistakes and make our streets safer — not just for people on foot, but for everyone who uses them. We recommend that the next federal transportation spending bill include the following provisions: Retain dedicated federal funding for the safety of people on foot or on bicycle. Congress is currently contemplating elimination of dedicated funding for Transportation Enhancements and the Safe Routes to School program, the two largest funding sources for bike and pedestrian facilities. Without these committed funding streams, states will likely reduce spending for safety features like sidewalks, crosswalks and trails. B. EXPANDING THE SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL PROGRAM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE OBESITY AMONG AMERICA’S SCHOOL CHILDREN. Michelle Ernst, (Analyst, Transportation for America), DANGEROUS BY DESIGN, 2011, 22. Walking and bicycling to school can help: elementary and middle school-age boys and girls who walk to and from school are more physically active overall than those who travel to school by car or bus. A study of 1,596 middle school-age girls in six states found that those who reported walking before and after school had 13.7 more minutes of total physically activity than those who did not report doing so." And, children who walk or bicycle to school have better cardiovascular fitness than do children who do not actively commute to school. The potential for health cost savings when children can safely walk and bicycle is significant. The costs of obesity and overweight account for approximately nine percent of total U.S. health care spending, and a portion of these costs are attributable to auto-oriented transportation that inadvertently limits opportunities for physical activity for the nation's children. Anne Moudon, (Prof., Urban Planning, U. Washington), Safe Routes to School (SRTS): Statewide Mobility Assessment, Jan. 2010, A-30. Staunton et al. evaluated schools taking part in the Marin County, California, SRTS program. The program included classroom education, walking and bike days, mapping of routes, walking school buses and bike trains, newsletters, and infrastructure improvements where funds were available. Six public schools that took part in the program were surveyed during the 2000-2001 school year and seven in the 2001-2002 school year. From fall 2000 to spring 2002, researchers observed a 64 percent increase in the number of children walking, a 114 percent increase in the number of students biking, a 91 percent increase in the number of students carpooling, and a 39 percent decrease in the number of children arriving by private car carrying only one student. C. EXPANDING THE SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL PROGRAM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE INJURIES AND DEATHS AMONG SCHOOL CHILDREN. Anne Moudon, (Prof., Urban Planning, U. Washington), Safe Routes to School (SRTS): Statewide Mobility Assessment, Jan. 2010, A-2. SRTS [Safe Routes to School] is a concept that originated in Denmark during the 1970s. At this time, Denmark had the highest rate of child traffic fatalities in Western Europe. In response, a pilot program in the city of Odense was implemented. The program identified and addressed specific traffic dangers and created a network of bicycle and pedestrian paths. By the early 1980s, this demonstration project was credited with reducing child pedestrian and bicycle collisions during the school journey by 82 percent. Following Odense's success, Denmark established a national SRTS program, and similar programs were implemented in other parts of Europe, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the U.S.
AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 33
HYDROGEN REFUELING INFRASTRUCTURE: MOVING BEYOND THE OIL ERA The thesis of this case is that the United States must immediately make plans for the transition away from the oil era. Reliance on petroleum is costly, both in economic and environmental terms. Hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe, offers the optimal alternative to reliance on oil. Hydrogen is a highly efficient fuel, and when used in hydrogen fuel cells, produces no byproducts other than water. Plan: The United States federal government will substantially increase its transportation infrastructure investment by funding the construction of a hydrogen refueling system involving 1,500 stations spread throughout the United States. The U.S. Department of Transportation will be charged with locating the stations such that 70% of the U.S. population would never be more than 2 miles from a hydrogen refueling station. Necessary funding of $12 billion would be derived from a 5 cent per gallon increase in the federal tax on gasoline and diesel fuel. OBSERVATION: I. THE ABSENCE OF A REFUELING INFRASTRUCTURE IS THE PRIMARY BARRIER PREVENTING THE SHIFT TO HYDROGEN-POWERED VEHICLES. A. MAJOR AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS ARE PREPARED TO MARKET HYDROGEN-POWERED VEHICLES. John Ogden, (Prof., Environmental Science, U. of California, Davis), THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, 2009, 456. Most major car manufacturers are designing, building and demonstrating hydrogen vehicles, investing hundreds of millions of dollars. Daimler, Honda, Toyota and GM have announced plans to commercialize hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in the timeframe between 2011 and 2020. B. THE ABSENCE OF A HYDROGEN REFUELING INFRASTRUCTURE IS THE KEY FACTOR PREVENTING THE MARKETING OF HYDROGEN VEHICLES. Kimberly Keilbach, (Journalist), GLOBAL WARMING IS GOOD FOR BUSINESS: HOW SAVVY ENTREPRENEURS, LARGE CORPORATIONS AND OTHERS ARE MAKING MONEY WHILE SAVING THE PLANET, 2009, 37. One of the main barriers to the use of hydrogen is a lack of infrastructure. Although natural gas lines are commonly run to businesses and residences, hydrogen gas lines are not. In terms of transportation, fueling stations for vehicles are few and far between. C. THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION HAS CUT FUNDING FOR THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY TRANSITION. Jim Motavalli, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Feb. 17, 2011. Retrieved Mar. 15, 2011 from http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/cut-in-federal-fuel-cell-funding-is-criticized-by-proponets/. On Monday, the Energy Department proposed a fiscal 2012 budget that would increase financing for wind, solar, geothermal and battery technologies, but cut spending on hydrogen technology by nearly $70 million, roughly 40 percent of the program’s 2010 budget of $174 million CONTENTIONS: I. THE DEPLETION OF OIL SUPPLIES REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE FUTURE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY. A. PETROLEUM SUPPLIES WILL SOON PEAK AND BEGIN A LONG DECLINE. Vikram Janardhan, (CEO, Insera Energy, LLC), ENERGY EXPLAINED, Vol. 1, 2011, 57. One thing that is not debatable is the fact that oil is running out. Even large oil companies openly acknowledge that it is a finite resource. One recent oil company advertisement said, "It took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil. We'll use the next trillion in 30." Gordon Kelly, (President, Integrated Planners, Inc.), THE OIL SANDS: CANADA’S PATH TO CLEAN ENERGY?, 2009, 4. A recent survey of the top 800 fields in the world shows volumes are declining at rates faster than expected. No one knows for sure when Peak Oil might happen but this book suggests it will likely first occur between 2015 and 2020. B. THE PEAKING OF OIL SUPPLIES CAUSES OIL PRICE SPIKES THAT DAMAGE THE U.S. ECONOMY. Anthony Perl, (Prof., Urban Studies, Simon Fraser U.), TRANSPORT REVOLUTIONS: MOVING PEOPLE AND FREIGHT WITHOUT OIL, 2010, 129. Oil is even more important to national economies and the global economy than we and many others had supposed. It's now clearer that high oil prices bring the very real risk of devastating economic depression. Again, the best solution is timely implementation of measures to reduce oil consumption, particularly for transport, already noted in Figure 3.3 as the major use of oil. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 34
Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 127. Around 2015, oil production will show a clear and convincing decline, and the world will be at the beginning of the end of the petroleum interval. The changes it will bring will be staggering. We're fussing about being in a recession now, but in the words of Ronald Reagan: "You ain't seen nothin' yet!" C. THE PEAKING OF OIL SUPPLIES THREATENS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY BY INCREASING DEPENDENCE ON UNPREDICTABLE REGIMES IN THE MIDEAST. Andrew Appleby, (J.D. Candidate), CUMBERLAND LAW REVIEW, 2009/2010, 4-5. United States' staggering oil consumption critically impairs our national security. The United States is the world's largest consumer of oil, transferring over $ 300 billion annually to hostile nations such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela. Through our oil consumption and subsequent wealth transfer, the United States ultimately finances both sides of the "War on Terror." This wealth transfer has far-reaching effects, as "[o]il is the great empowerer of tyrants, and tyranny is the great breeder of terror and the great enemy of American values and interests." Further, dependence on Middle Eastern oil handcuffs the United States' foreign policy. II. CONTINUED TRANSPORTATION USE OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SIGNIFICANTLY THREATENS THE ENVIRONMENT. A. TRANSPORTATION USES OF FOSSIL FUELS ARE A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. Martin Nicholson, (Science Journalist, M.A. in Engineering, Cambridge U.), ENERGY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 185. Transport is a big energy user and it has played a key role in the development of the human race. It is the area most affected by peak oil, with 95% of transport energy coming from crude oil. It is also responsible for over 20% of energy greenhouse gas emissions. B. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS THREATEN ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION BY CONTRIBUTING TO GLOBAL WARMING. Daniel Perlmutter, (Prof., Chemical Engineering, U. Pennsylvania), THE CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, 2011, 6. There is a broad consensus in both the scientific and policy communities that something needs to be done — and soon — about the world-wide energy utilization that is bringing about continuing global changes leading to serious environmental deterioration. An uncontrolled global warming would create catastrophic consequences for the earth and its various political, economic, and social subsystems. C. GLOBAL WARMING THREATENS THE FUTURE OF CIVILIZATION. Mark Hertsgaard, (Journalist), HOT: LIVING THROUGH THE NEXT FIFTY YEARS ON EARTH, 2011, 66. If current emissions trends persist, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will exceed 700 parts per million (ppm) by 2100, according to the Fourth Assessment Report. The temperature will increase by a minimum of 5°C (9°F) over the average temperature of the preindustrial era. The earth would be hotter than at any time in the past 50 million years. It is questionable whether civilization could survive such temperatures and the impacts they would produce. Chester Hartman, (Fellow, Institute for Policy Studies), MANDATE FOR CHANGE: POLICIES AND LEADERSHIP FOR 2009 AND BEYOND, 2009, 240. We are also facing the greatest crisis of our civilization: global warming. Already, we have witnessed the impact of extreme weather events on our roads, bridges, levees, water systems and communications networks—and there is more to come. To avoid the worst effects of climate change, we must reduce our carbon emissions by 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. We have no time to waste. To reach this goal, we need to take action within the next thirty months. III. THE SHIFT TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY BEST RESOLVES THE TWIN PROBLEMS OF OIL DEPLETION AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION. A. FACILITATING THE SHIFT TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY OFFERS AN OPTIMAL SOLUTION TO OIL DEPLETION. John Ogden, (Prof., Environmental Science, U. of California, Davis), THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, 2009, 456. Studies by the National Academies and the International Energy Agency, among others, affirm the long-term promise of hydrogen to all but eliminate oil dependence, and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants from the transport sector, beyond what might be achieved by energy efficiency alone. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 35
Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND POWER, 2009, 54-55. Hydrogen could become a major energy source, reducing U.S. dependence on imported petroleum while diversifying energy sources and reducing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. It could be produced in large refineries in industrial areas, power parks and fueling stations in communities, distributed facilities in rural areas with processes using fossil fuels, biomass, or water as feedstocks and release little or none carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Hydrogen could be used in refrigerator-sized fuel cells to produce electricity and heat for the home. Vehicles that operate by burning hydrogen or by employing hydrogen fuel cells would emit essentially water vapor. B. FACILITATING THE SHIFT TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY OFFERS AN OPTIMAL WAY TO PRESERVE THE ENVIRONMENT. 1. Hydrogen fuel can eliminate transportation sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Whitney Colella, (Energy Scientist, Sandia National Laboratory), CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE AND POLICY, 2010, 456. Using currently available technologies, it is possible to design a future economy based on H2 such that total emissions of greenhouse gases are reduced to zero. Hydrogen is one of the only fuels, or "energy carriers," that could enable this transition to zero emissions (another being electricity). 2. Hydrogen fuel can be produced in such a way as to avoid greenhouse gas emissions. Whitney Colella, (Energy Scientist, Sandia National Laboratory), CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE AND POLICY, 2010, 459. One of the most environmentally benign ways to produce H2 is through the electrolysis of water powered by renewable electricity. By passing an electric current through liquid H2O, the individual H2O molecules can dissociate into the separate molecules of H2 and O2. The electrolysis of one mole of H2O produces one mole of H2 gas and half a mole of O2 gas. The electricity needed for this reaction could be provided by renewable energy devices such as hydroelectric power plants, geothermal power plants, wind turbines, solar photovoltaic arrays, solar thermal-electric power plants, wave power devices, biomass plants, and tidal power devices. C. HYDROGEN OFFERS A SUPERIOR VEHICLE FUEL. 1. Hydrogen as a fuel offers safety advantages over gasoline. Joseph Natowitz, (Prof., Engineering, Texas A&M U.), OUR ENERGY FUTURE: RESOURCES, ALTERNATIVES, AND THE ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 448. Compared to other fuels, hydrogen burns faster (e.g., 10 times more quickly than oil for a 100-liter tank) but radiates 10 times less energy than gasoline. This latter point reduces the consequences of a fire because it is less likely to be ignited by the materials in the vicinity. 2. Hydrogen is a highly efficient vehicle fuel. Frank Marscheider-Wiedemann, (Dir., Business Unit, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research), THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, 2009, 361-362. The efficiency of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles is about twice that of current internal combustion engines on the highway, and about three times as high in urban traffic (and between 1-1.5 times more than hybrid electric vehicles). A clear advantage of fuel cells is that at part loads, fuel-cell drives have a higher efficiency than at full loads; this suggests their application in motor vehicles, which are usually operated at partial load, such as during urban driving. David Jones, (Former Dir., Institute for Transportation Studies, Stanford U.), MASS MOTORIZATION AND MASS TRANSIT, 2010, 213. The National Academy of Engineering expects that technologically mature fuel cell vehicles will be some 2.4 times more energy efficient than the same vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine and 1.7 times more energy efficient than a hybrid gas-electric vehicle on a so-called tank-to-wheels basis. 3. Hydrogen offers an optimal solution to urban air quality problems. Neelkanth Dhere, (Florida Solar Energy Center, U. of Central Florida), HYDROGEN FUEL: PRODUCTION, TRANSPORT, AND STORAGE, 2009, 228. Hydrogen is an ideal, clean, carbon-free carrier of energy that produces only water vapor as a waste product and has potential applications in automobiles, airplanes, and also in home-heating. 4. The cost of hydrogen fuel is comparable to gasoline. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND POWER, 2009, 264. Hydrogen may not be more expensive than gasoline as oil prices soar upward. Hydrogen provided at fueling stations could cost about $4 or more per kilogram (kg) which is close to the equivalent-energy price of gasoline. A kilogram of hydrogen has almost the same energy as a gallon of gasoline. AFFIRMATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 36
OTHER THOUGHTS: TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE IN INDIAN COUNTRY The thesis of this case is that the United States federal government must make good on its commitment to properly fund transportation infrastructure in Indian Country. Indian tribes have, by long-standing treaties, been given sovereign status, meaning they are not subject to the normal jurisdiction of state government administration. This means that normal federal transportation funding, administered by state governments, does not find its way into Indian Country. While the federal government does provide some transportation infrastructure funding for Indian Country, the funding level is proportionately far less than is provided to state governments. Plan: The U.S. federal government will substantially increase its transportation infrastructure investment by allocating $568 million per year to the Reservation Roads Program. Funding will come from the U.S. Highway Trust Fund. OBSERVATION: I. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS OBLIGATED BY TREATY TO PROVIDE FOR THE NEEDS OF INDIANS. U.S. Department of the Interior, INDIAN AFFAIRS, Apr. 19, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 20, 2012 from http://www.bia.gov/FAQs/index.htm. From 1778 to 1871, the United States’ relations with individual American Indian nations indigenous to what is now the U.S. were defined and conducted largely through the treaty-making process. These “contracts among nations” recognized and established unique sets of rights, benefits, and conditions for the treaty-making tribes who agreed to cede of millions of acres of their homelands to the United States and accept its protection. Like other treaty obligations of the United States, Indian treaties are considered to be “the supreme law of the land,” and they are the foundation upon which federal Indian law and the federal Indian trust relationship is based. CONTENTIONS: I. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE PROBLEMS CREATE SIGNIFICANT HARM IN INDIAN COUNTRY. A. INFRASTRUCTURE PROBLEMS CAUSE A DISPROPORTIONATE RATE OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. Wilford Whatoname, (Chair, Hualapai Tribe), EXAMINING TRIBAL TRANSPORTATION IN INDIAN COUNTRY, Hrg., Oct. 15, 2010, 100. The unsafe conditions are reflected in our tragic statistics. Indian Country still has the highest vehicle and pedestrian fatality rates in the country which in some areas are 3-4 times the national average. Motor vehicle injuries are the leading cause of death for Native Americans ages 1-34, and the third leading cause of overall for Native Americans. The motor vehicle death rate for Native Americans is nearly twice as high as other races. B. INFRASTRUCTURE PROBLEMS LOCK INDIAN RESERVATIONS INTO ECONOMIC STAGNATION. Timothy Rosette, (Chief, Environmental Health Division, Chippewa Cree Tribe), EXAMINING TRIBAL TRANSPORTATION IN INDIAN COUNTRY, Hrg., Oct. 15, 2010, 36. Our inadequate transportation infrastructure hinders every priority of the Federal Government and Tribes which our respective governments have sought to achieve over the last few decades—economic development, law enforcement and other first responders, education, health care, and housing—because it raises the cost of doing business on reservations and in Indian communities in every aspect of our daily living. II. FEDERAL FUNDING FOR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE IN INDIAN COUNTRY IS INADEQUATE. A. INDIAN TRIBES A MUCH SMALLER PERCENTAGE OF SUPPORT THAN DO STATE GOVERNMENTS. Jefferson Keel, (Pres., National Congress of American Indians), EXAMINING TRIBAL TRANSPORTATION IN INDIAN COUNTRY, Hrg., Oct. 15, 2010, 19. Like states, Indian tribes receive some funding for road construction from the federal Highway Trust Fund, but the amount given to tribes is much less than what states receive. Currently, Indian Reservation Roads make up nearly three percent of federal roadways, but they receive less than 0.5 percent of total federal highway funding. At the current funding levels, the IRR program receives only about half the amount per road mile that states receive. B. FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT FAILS TO MEET TREATY OBLIGATIONS. Wilford Whatoname, (Chair, Hualapai Tribe), EXAMINING TRIBAL TRANSPORTATION IN INDIAN COUNTRY, Hrg., Oct. 15, 2010, 100. The number one roadblock to fulfilling the needs in our Tribal communities is lack of funding. Too often Congress, the Department of Transportation, and the Department of the Interior ignored their trust responsibility and treaty obligations to the Indian nations and Native people to provide safe and efficient transportation systems. III. PROPER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT WILL APPROPRIATELY MEET U.S. TREATY OBLIGATIONS. Jefferson Keel, (Pres., National Congress of American Indians), EXAMINING TRIBAL TRANSPORTATION IN INDIAN COUNTRY, Hrg., Oct. 15, 2010, 17. State governments spend between $4,000 and $5,000 per road mile on maintaining state roads and highways. While in Indian Country, by contrast, road maintenance funding is less than $500 spent per road mile. Indian Country has an unmet immediate need of well over $258 million in maintenance funding for roads and bridges, and $310 million in unmet need for new roads and bridges projects. FIRST NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 37
TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE IS ADEQUATELY SUPPORTED AT PRESENT I. CLAIMS OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE NEGLECT ARE EXAGGERATED. A. THE QUALITY OF U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE IS UNMATCHED IN THE WORLD. James Oberstar, (Former Chair, House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure), TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, xi. The U.S. surface transportation network, unmatched by any other in the world, is the backbone of the nation's economy. It has provided American businesses and consumers with enormous economic competitive advantages and access to markets over the course of the past century. B. CURRENT FEDERAL SPENDING ON TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE IS EXTENSIVE. Mark Calabria, (Analyst, Cato Institute), A FANNIE MAE FOR INFRASTRUCTURE, Sept. 9, 2010. Retrieved Feb. 22, 2012 from http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/a-fannie-mae-for-intrastructure/. First, let’s get out of the way the myth that we have been “under-funding” infrastructure. Take the largest, and usually most popular, piece: transportation. Over the last decade, transportation spending at all levels of government has increased over 70 percent. One can debate if that money has been spent wisely, but there’s no doubt we’ve been spending an ever-increasing amount on infrastructure – so there goes one rationale for an infrastructure bank. Burt Solomon, (Staff, National Journal), U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 8. Nor is the country ignoring the issue. The nation's spending on infrastructure continues to rise; New Orleans is rebuilding the levees that Katrina breached. "The things that need to get done are getting done, by and large," said Timothy P. Lynch, the American Trucking Associations' senior vice president for federal relations and strategic planning. C. STATE AND LOCAL SPENDING ON TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE IS EXTENSIVE. Nathan Musick, (Economist, Congressional Budget Office), PUBLIC SPENDING ON TRANSPORTATION AND WATER INFRASTRUCTURE, 2010, 10. In 2007, state and local governments spent $103 billion on transportation and water infrastructure capital; the federal government spent $58 billion. State and local governments thus accounted for over 60 percent of public capital spending on such infrastructure, and the federal government accounted for just under 40 percent—shares that have been quite stable over the past two decades. Nathan Musick, (Economist, Congressional Budget Office), PUBLIC SPENDING ON TRANSPORTATION AND WATER INFRASTRUCTURE, 2010, 11. Nearly all public spending for operating and maintaining transportation and water infrastructure takes place at the state and local level. Whereas state and local governments spent $172 billion for the operation and maintenance of infrastructure in 2007, the federal government spent just $24 billion. States and localities supplied almost 90 cents of every public dollar allocated for operating and maintaining facilities related to transportation and water infrastructure. States and localities have been the primary source of that spending for the past 50 years. D. REPORTS OF INFRASTRUCTURE NEGLECT ARE BASED UPON SPECIAL INTEREST PERSPECTIVES. Burt Solomon, (Staff, National Journal), U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 12. The GAO, among others, is more skeptical, not only of the civil engineers' $1.6 trillion, $300-billion-plus-a- year cost projection but also of a congressionally created panel's recommendations. The National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission announced in January that the nation must spend $225 billion annually — $140 billion more than at present — on its roads, waterways, and railroads. "Most of the needs assessments," the Urban Institute's Penner explained, "are very much influenced by special interests," using unrealistic assumptions and self-serving estimates. Burt Solomon, (Staff, National Journal), U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 8. The civil engineers issued a widely invoked price tag of $1.6 trillion over five years to do what needs to be done, but even champions of a strong infrastructure find such a number inflated — "a compilation of a wish list," the ATA's [American Trucking Association]Lynch said. E. MOTORIST SAFETY ON U.S. ROADWAYS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. JayEtta Hecker, (Dir., Physical Infrastructure Issues, Government Accountability Office), SURFACE TRANSPORTATION: INFRASTRUCTURE, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES AND SAFETY, 2010, 11. Transportation safety has improved considerably over the past 40 years, and although motor vehicle and large truck fatality rates have generally continued to fall modestly since the mid-1990s, the improvements yielding the greatest safety benefits (e.g., vehicle crashworthiness requirements and increases in safety belt use) have already occurred, making future progress more difficult.
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TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES SHOULD BE LEFT TO STATE GOVERNMENTS I. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ARE BEST EQUIPPED TO MAKE INVESTMENTS IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE. A. STATES AND LOCALITIES ARE THE OWNERS OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS. Howard Shatz, (Analyst, RAND Corporation), HIGHWAY INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE ECONOMY: IMPLICATIONS FOR FEDERAL POLICY, 2011, xii-xiii. The intellectual model of highway programs in particular is that the states own and operate the major roads — even the interstates. The federal government "aids" the states through grants or loan subsidies, but in principle, as a matter of state sovereignty, the states plan and decide where the highways will go and then operate and manage them. The result is that the federal government recognizes the overall highway program as a state program and gives the states money if they meet design or safety standards and follow certain planning procedures. B. STATE AND LOCAL INVESTMENT IS BEST AT PROMOTING EXPERIMENTATION. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy, Cato Institute), WASHINGTON POST, Oct. 21, 2011. Retrieved Feb. 19, 2012 from http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13788. The states should be the laboratories for infrastructure. We should further encourage their experiments by bringing in private-sector financing. If we need more highway investment, we should take notes from Virginia, which raised a significant amount of private money to widen the Beltway. If we need to upgrade our air-traffic- control system, we should copy the Canadian approach and privatize it so that upgrades are paid for by fees on aviation users. If Amtrak were privatized, it would focus its investment where it is most needed — the densely populated Northeast. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy, Cato Institute), FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, Nov. 21, 2011. Retrieved Feb. 19, 2012 from http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13871. The U.S. economy needs infrastructure, but state and local governments and the private sector are generally the best places to fund and manage it. The states should be the "laboratories of democracy" for infrastructure, and they should be able to innovate freely with new ways of financing and managing their roads, bridges, airports, seaports, and other facilities. C. STATES LEARN HOW BEST TO MANAGE TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS BY OBSERVING SOLUTIONS ATTEMPTED IN OTHER STATES. Sam Staley, (Dir., Urban Land Use Policy, Reason Foundation), MOBILITY FIRST: A NEW VISION FOR TRANSPORTATION IN GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, 2009, 22-23. Congestion is primarily a local phenomenon with local solutions, and unfortunately state and regional governments are not nearly as focused on congestion as the Feds are. That's why state experiments will be crucial to tackling the problems of congestion and reduced mobility. Texas, Georgia, and more recently Florida have become the bellwethers for reform on the local level. After a statewide initiative driven by the governor's office, Texas adopted an Urban Mobility Program focused on actual reductions in congestion in each of its major urban areas. Georgia's Transportation Board has also adopted recommendations from the governor's Congestion Mitigation Task Force to reduce overall congestion. Florida is moving forward with innovative user-financed expansions of its road network. As these initiatives play out, state policy makers and transportation planners will reap windfalls from these early adopters by learning what works and what doesn't. D. MOST TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES DO NOT REQUIRE FEDERAL INVOLVEMENT. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, 204. Why the federal government needs to be involved in transportation at all remains an open question. With the possible exceptions of air traffic control and maritime work, virtually everything that the Department of Transportation does can be handled as well or better by state or local authorities. E. STATE INFRASTRUCTURE BANKS CAN PROVIDE NECESSARY TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 104. Increased revenues from tolling would also provide an income stream that could be leveraged by another source of funding that is likely to become increasingly important for state and local transportation departments: state infrastructure banks. Created as a pilot program in ten states by the National Highway System Designation Act of 1995, and expanded to include all the states by the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), the state infrastructure banks (SIBS) were established to function as "an umbrella under which a variety of innovative financing techniques could be implemented."
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II. FEDERAL INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE DISTORTS STATE AND LOCAL PRIORITIES. A. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS POORLY EQUIPPED TO HANDLE TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy, Cato Institute), WASHINGTON POST, Oct. 21, 2011. Retrieved Feb. 19, 2012 from http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13788. For plenty of examples of the downside of federal infrastructure, look at the two oldest infrastructure agencies — the Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation. Their histories show that the federal government shouldn't be in the infrastructure business. Rather, state governments and the private sector are best equipped to provide it. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, xxiii. Too often, state and local governments have been proposing large-scale transportation projects only after receiving assurances that the federal government would provide a significant portion of the funding to build the project. For example, there would never have been a Big Dig—a project whose cost ballooned from the original $2.4 billion to an eventual $22 billion—had Massachusetts politicians not secured federal guarantees to cover the initial bulk—as well as the growing cost—of the project. But the balance had to be provided from state funding, and the irony of this biggest boondoggle in U.S. transportation history is that Massachusetts is now saddled with paying such amounts to complete and maintain the project that the state is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. B. FEDERAL REGULATIONS HAMPER EFFECTIVE STATE-LEVEL SOLUTIONS. Ronald Utt, (Sr. Research Fellow, Institute for Economic Policy Studies, Heritage Foundation), HERITAGE BACKGROUNDER NO. 2651, Feb. 6, 2012, 3. Over time, the highway program has been subject to a number of regulatory burdens. Many of these burdens are designed to assist select segments of the workforce in achieving goals other than, and often in conflict with, enhanced mobility. These regulations have added substantially to project costs and/or project delays. Such regulations include the Davis–Bacon Act, Section 13(c) of the Urban Mass Transit Act, the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), small-business and minority contracting requirements, and Buy America provisions. Federal regulations also discourage and complicate the use of public–private partnerships; tolled express lanes; conversion of HOV (high occupancy vehicle) lanes to HOT (high occupancy toll) lanes; and general tolling of the interstate system even though these highways are owned by the states. Ronald Utt, (Sr. Research Fellow, Institute for Economic Policy Studies, Heritage Foundation), WEB MEMO NO. 3179, Mar. 4, 2011, 1. All workers on federally supported construction projects must be paid "prevailing" wages in accordance with the Davis–Bacon Act, and these wages are higher than those in the competitive market. Such wages are common to union contracts. A recent Heritage Foundation study found that the Davis–Bacon Act increases the cost of federal construction projects by 9.9 percent and that its repeal would create 155,000 more construction jobs at the same cost to taxpayers. Davis–Bacon is not the only cost problem. All federally funded transit systems are operated by unionized workers who are paid wages and benefits, and provided costly job protections under Section 13(c) of the Federal Transit Act and other federal statutes, well above those of comparable workers in the private sector, whether unionized or not. C. FEDERAL PLANNING REQUIREMENTS IMPOSED UPON STATES DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, 209. Congress currently requires states and metropolitan areas to write and regularly update long-range (20 years or more) transportation plans. Yet, as chapter 8 revealed, these plans actually do more harm than good. No one can predict transportation needs 5 years from now, much less 20 years. Once written, however, plans often get politically locked in no matter how actual needs or facts change. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, 187. Any long-range plan is guaranteed to be wrong. Yet, if it is a government plan, it is very hard to change. As a result, long-range transportation plans are locking more and more urban areas into dubious programs of increased congestion (in the hope of discouraging a few vehicle miles of travel), unaffordable housing (in the hope of encouraging a few more people to crowd into transit-oriented developments), and costly rail projects whose environmental and transportation benefits are dubious at best.
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PRIVATE INVESTMENT IS PREFERABLE FOR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE I. THE CURRENT TREND IS TO PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE. A. THE SHORTFALL IN THE FEDERAL HIGHWAY FUND HAS CREATED THE CURRENT MOVEMENT TOWARD RELIANCE ON PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS FOR INVESTMENT FUNDING. Lewis Solomon, (Prof., Law, George Washington U.), THE PROMISE AND PERILS OF INFRASTRUCTURE PRIVATIZATION: THE MACQUARIE MODEL, 2009, 106. The United States faces these crumbling and congested highways and bridges just as the nation faces the most significant economic downturn since the Great Depression. The traditional fuel tax model is falling short of the financial needs generated by aging infrastructure and increasing traffic demands. States rely on funds generated by federal (plus their own) fuel taxes for highway capital and operating expenses. Although a majority of the twelve- member commission created by Congress to study surface transportation policy and revenue recommended in December 2007 that the current federal 18.4-cent per gallon gasoline tax be hiked over a five-year period, by five to eight cents each year, to forty cents a gallon (and after that, adjusted for inflation), increasing fuel taxes are politically unpopular. Economic uncertainties and soaring gas prices (for a time) resulting in less driving, more fuel efficient cars (and the possibility of plug-in vehicles) that will further erode the revenue stream from gasoline taxes, and congressional resistance to tax increases, among other factors, lead to the conclusion that various types of public-private partnerships will likely assume a larger role in meeting future U.S. highway and bridge needs. B. STATES AND LOCALITIES ARE NOW INCREASINGLY WILLING TO EXPLORE PRIVATE OPTIONS. Brian Imus, (Staff, Illinois Public Interest Research Group), PRIVATIZATION AND THE PUBLIC INTEREST, Fall 2009, 6. The greatest draw of privatization for many cash-starved cities and states is the prospect of an immediate infusion of cash into government coffers without the need to increase taxes. The long-term lease of a revenue generating facility can bring in huge cash payments—for example, the $1.16 billion received for the 75-year lease of the city's system of parking meters is equivalent to nearly 20 percent of the $6 billion in total revenue the city was expecting to receive from all sources in 2009. C. MASSIVE PRIVATE TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IS NOW AVAILABLE. Bernard Schwartz, (CEO, BLS Investments, LLC), INFRASTRUCTURE: REBUILDING, REPAIRING AND RESTRUCTURING, 2009, 42. Notwithstanding recent credit problems and bank liquidity concerns, the world is still awash in capital and long- term interest rates remain near historical low levels. In fact, there is no shortage of privately held funds to help pay for infrastructure reconstruction and development if it is undertaken in a market-sensitive manner, As Transportation Secretary Mark Peters recently noted, "there is upwards of $400 billion available in the private sector right now for infrastructure investment." Likewise, even with today's bank credit and liquidity problems, there are literally trillions of dollars available for high-quality debt investments through both domestic and international markets. The amount of funds held by central banks, sovereign funds, and global pension funds is estimated to be approaching $30 trillion—and growing fast, U,S. public pension funds alone have more than $3 trillion in assets; moreover, they have a long-term investment outlook that is consistent with the stable returns that infrastructure assets generate. II. PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE IS SUPERIOR TO GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT. A. PRIVATE INVESTMENT BEST PROTECTS INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS. Lewis Solomon, (Prof., Law, George Washington U.), THE PROMISE AND PERILS OF INFRASTRUCTURE PRIVATIZATION: THE MACQUARIE MODEL, 2009, 15. In addition to privatization serving as a financial tool, it provides a powerful management tool. The private sector generally can more efficiently manage infrastructure assets. For example, in a review of fifty-two empirical studies of infrastructure privatization, thirty-two of these studies concluded that performance of the privatized firms was significantly superior to that of the public entities. B. PRIVATE INVESTMENT IS BEST INSULATED FROM POLITICAL INTERFERENCE. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, 223-224. Perhaps the best insulation against political interference would be to privatize transportation facilities. A government toll or transit agency might build up a large reserve fund so that it could rebuild its roads or rail lines when needed, but that fund could well be confiscated by politicians searching for funds for their favorite projects. A private entity that built up a cash reserve would be much less at risk. Privatization would also help promote technological innovations. Although immediate privatization is unlikely, state and local agencies can take the following steps toward improved transportation management.
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ROAD ECOLOGY I. ROADS DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HARM SPECIES. A. ROADS PROVIDE PROTECTIVE HABITAT FOR SOME SPECIES. Jon Beckmann, (Prof., Wildlife Management, Idaho State U.), SAFE PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, WILDLIFE, AND HABITAT CONNECTIVITY, 2010, 8. The presence of roads can be advantageous for some species. For example, some moose in Grand Teton National Park and surrounding areas appear to benefit from roads. Female moose have begun to realize that humans can be a shield of sorts against one of their major predators, the grizzly bear. Some female moose give birth closer to roads usually avoided by grizzly bears, a behavior that is thought to be a strategy to increase calf survival. Other species that benefit from roads are scavengers. Increased levels of carrion due to collisions with vehicles have not only benefited ravens, but other scavengers such as crows, coyotes, and turkey vultures, to name a few. B. ROADS HAVE ONLY A SMALL IMPACT ON SPECIES ABUNDANCE. Lenore Fahrig, (Prof., Biology, Carleton U.), ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY, #1, 2009, 21. Two species types are predicted to respond positively to roads: (i) species that are attracted to roads for an important resource (e.g., food) and are able to avoid oncoming cars, and (ii) species that do not avoid traffic disturbance but do avoid roads, and whose main predators show negative population-level responses to roads. Other conditions lead to weak or non-existent effects of roads and traffic on animal abundance. II. STATE GOVERNMENTS ARE EXPERIMENTING WITH MITIGATION MEASURES. Anthony Clevenger, (Sr. Scientist at the Western Transportation Institute, Montana State U.), SAFE PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, WILDLIFE, AND HABITAT CONNECTIVITY, 2010, 20-21. A recent policy by the Western Governors' Association to "protect wildlife migration corridors and crucial wildlife habitat in the West" sets a management directive to coordinate habitat protection and land use management for wildlife across jurisdictional boundaries. Of particular note was the section of the report produced by the Transportation Infrastructure Working Group, which makes detailed recommendations on ways to integrate future transportation planning with wildlife habitat conservation at the systems level. III. WILDLIFE CROSSINGS AND ANIMAL DETECTION SYSTEMS ARE INEFFECTIVE MEANS OF PROTECTING ENDANGERED SPECIES. A. WARNING SIGNS HAVE PROVEN INEFFECTIVE IN REDUCING WILDLIFE COLLISIONS. Marcel Hutjser, (Commissioner, National Academy’s Transportation Research Board), SAFE PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, WILDLIFE, AND HABITAT CONNECTIVITY, 2010, 58. These results all suggest that enhanced warning signs can lead to lower vehicle speed, greater speed reduction compared to standard deer warning signs, and decreased driver reaction time. However, despite these encouraging data, enhanced warning signs have not been shown to significantly reduce the number of deer-vehicle collisions. Marcel Hutjser, (Commissioner, National Academy’s Transportation Research Board), SAFE PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, WILDLIFE, AND HABITAT CONNECTIVITY, 2010, 65. Deer whistles and other audio animal warning devices are designed to alert wildlife of oncoming traffic and keep deer and other large ungulates from the road. Deer can hear ultrasonic frequencies up to at least 30 kHz. However, most studies report no behavioral changes in animal behavior or the number of collisions. Marcel Hutjser, (Commissioner, National Academy’s Transportation Research Board), SAFE PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, WILDLIFE, AND HABITAT CONNECTIVITY, 2010, 64. Deer mirrors and reflectors are designed to reflect vehicle headlights off the roadway and into the surrounding right of way and keep deer and other large ungulates from the road. Most studies testing the effectiveness of mirrors and/or reflectors on reducing collisions with large ungulates found that they had no effect, mixed results, or inconclusive results. B. MITIGATION MEASURES HAVE NOT PERFORMED WELL. Anthony Clevenger, (Analyst, Western Transportation Institute), WILDLIFE CROSSING STRUCTURE HANDBOOK, Mar. 2011, 43. Traffic-related mortality of wildlife can significantly impact some wildlife populations; particularly those that are found in low densities, slow reproducing, and need to travel over large areas. Common and abundant species like Deer, Elk and Moose can present serious problems for motorist safety. Many mitigation measures have been designed over the years to reduce collisions with wildlife; but few actually perform well or have been rigorously tested.
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OIL RESOURCES ARE PLENTIFUL I. CONVENTIONAL SOURCES OF OIL ARE PLENTIFUL. A. IN THE PAST CENTURY, ONLY A SMALL FRACTION OF AVAILABLE OIL HAS BEEN USED. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, 2010, 87. What we have sought to show here is that while we may have used around 1 trillion barrels of the world's oil, it is a small fraction of the estimated 12-16 trillion that remains. B. MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF CONVENTIONAL OIL ARE AVAILABLE. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, 2010, 88. Today's estimates of what is "recoverable" and what is "out there" have increased dramatically. As analyst Michael Lynch points out post the 1990s, "Since then, most analysts have produced estimates of around 3.5 trillion barrels of recoverable petroleum with somewhere like around a 35 percent recovery rate, implying approximately 10 trillion barrels of oil in place." Lynch considers, and we agree, that 10 trillion is actually a highly conservative estimate given that the figure only relates to conventional oil, when there is easily just as much unconventional oil around. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, 2010, 81. In his book, The Battle for Barrels: Peak Oil Myths & World Oil Futures, energy analyst Duncan Clarke quotes: "Leonardo Maugeri of Eni, a world-class company, estimates that there are now some 2 trillion barrels of recoverable reserves not yet classified as proven that will, in time, become commercially exploitable as technology and subsoil improves and higher prices improve margins. This is a significant volume." C. OIL SUPPLIES WILL LAST FOR ABOUT THREE CENTURIES. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, 2010, 74. In The Color of Oil, Michael Economides and his co-author predicted that the world would not run out of oil for at least the next three centuries. For natural gas, which is rapidly becoming the fuel of choice, the scenario is even more optimistic. Even without taking into account the enormous volume of gas hydrates, the world's natural gas supply will last for at least several centuries more. II. UNCONVENTIONAL SOURCES OF OIL ARE PLENTIFUL. A. CANADIAN TAR SANDS CONTAIN MORE OIL THAN THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST. Alastair Sweeney, (Dir., The Civics Channel, Canada), BLACK BONANZA: ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS AND THE RACE TO SECURE NORTH AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE, 2010, 17. Back in the 1980s, I was told by a prominent Alberta oilman that there was more oil in Alberta than in the entire Middle East. It turns out we have quite a bit more — over 1 trillion barrels that is recoverable, 3.3 trillion barrels in total. So why are we wringing our hands about peak oil? B. CANADIAN OIL IS ALREADY SUPPLYING THE U.S. MARKET. Alastair Sweeney, (Dir., The Civics Channel, Canada), BLACK BONANZA: ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS AND THE RACE TO SECURE NORTH AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE, 2010, 214. According to oil expert, Daniel Yergin, Canada's oil sands represent the future of North American energy. In the next five years, production should double, and the producers are counting on the U.S. market to absorb it all, says Greg Stringham, a vice president at the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. C. U.S. SHALE OIL CONTAINS AN AMOUNT OF OIL SUFFICIENT FOR THE NEXT TWO CENTURIES. Nicola Armaroli, (Sr. Research Scientist, Italian National Research Council), ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD: FROM THE OIL AGE TO A SUN-POWERED FUTURE, 2011, 51. Tar sands exists in large quantities, especially in Canada (Alberta) and Venezuela (Orinoco Belt), whereas the U.S. owns vast resources of oil shale, which in principle might cover its current consumption for 270 years. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND POWER, 2009, 35. Commercializing the vast oil shale resources could greatly add to the country's energy resources. Shale oil could have an effect similar to the 175 billion barrels of oil from Alberta tar sands to Canada's oil reserves. As a result of the commercial effort, oil from tar sand production now exceeds one million barrels per day. Oil shale in the United States is as rich as tar sand and could become a vital component in America's future energy security. FIRST NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 43
THE ADVANTAGES OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL INVESTMENTS ARE EXAGGERATED I. HIGH-SPEED RAIL DOES NOT OFFER AN EFFECTIVE SOLUTION FOR GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. A. CONSTRUCTION OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL EQUIPMENT EMITS MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GREENHOUSE GASES. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, 122. Even if a new rail line could save energy or reduce greenhouse gases compared with buses or autos, the energy costs and CO2 emissions during construction are huge and may never be recovered through operational savings. Rail transit requires significant amounts of steel and concrete, for example, both of which are energy intensive and emit large volumes of CO2. B. HIGH-SPEED RAIL OPERATION INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. Randal O’Toole, (Analyst, Cato Institute), ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH, July 30, 2009, A19. Nor is high-speed rail good for the environment. The Department of Energy says that, in intercity travel, automobiles are as energy-efficient as Amtrak, and that boosting Amtrak trains to higher speeds will make them less energy-efficient and more polluting than driving. Steven Polzin of the University of South Florida's Center for Urban Transportation Research points out that autos and buses have relatively short life cycles, so they can readily adapt to the need to save energy or reduce pollution. Rail systems "may be far more difficult or expensive to upgrade to newer, more efficient technologies," Polzin adds. If automakers meet Obama's fuel-efficiency standards, autos will be more than 30 percent more efficient in 2025 than they are today, so high-speed rail actually will be wasting energy. II. HIGH-SPEED RAIL INVESTMENTS FAIL TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE UNEMPLOYMENT – IT WILL SIMPLY MOVE JOBS FROM ONE PLACE TO ANOTHER. David Peterman, (Analyst in Transportation Policy, Congressional Research Service), HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN THE UNITED STATES, Dec. 8, 2009, 18. Although skeptics point out that increasing spending on anything will create short-term jobs, some research shows that infrastructure spending tends to create more jobs than other types of spending. In terms of longer-term benefits, however, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) notes that quantifying these benefits can be difficult, and "while benefits such as improvements in economic development and employment may represent real benefits for the jurisdiction in which a new high speed rail service is located, from another jurisdiction's perspective or from a national view they may represent a transfer or relocation of benefits." III. HIGH-SPEED RAIL INVESTMENTS FAIL TO REDUCE HIGHWAY CONGESTION. A. MOST TRAFFIC CONGESTION ARISES FROM LOCAL TRAFFIC, NOT INTER-CITY TRAVEL. David Peterman, (Analyst in Transportation Policy, Congressional Research Service), HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN THE UNITED STATES, Dec. 8, 2009, 14-15. On the question of highway congestion relief, many studies estimate that HSR will have little positive effect because most highway traffic is local and the diversion of intercity trips from highway to rail will be small. In a study of HSR published in 1997, the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) estimated that in most cases rail improvements would divert only 3%-6% of intercity automobile trips. FRA noted that corridors with short average trip lengths, those under 150 miles, showed the lowest diversion rates. The U.S. Department of Transportation's Inspector General (IG) found much the same thing in a more recent analysis of HSR in the Northeast Corridor. The IG examined two scenarios: Scenario 1 involved cutting rail trip times from Boston to New York from 3 1/2 hours to 3 hours and from New York to Washington from 3 hours to 2 1/2; Scenario 2 involved cutting trip times on both legs by another 1/2 hour over scenario 1. In both scenarios, the IG found that the improvements reduced automobile ridership along the NEC by less than 1%. B. FEW AMERICANS WILL ABANDON THEIR CARS IN FAVOR OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL TRAVEL. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow), CATO BRIEFING PAPERS, No. 113, Sept. 9, 2009, 4. In contrast, when combined with the existing Boston-to-Washington corridor, the FRA high-speed rail plan would reach only 33 states. Trains would stop in only 65 of the nation's 100 largest urban areas. For most people in smaller urban areas and towns, the only access to high-speed trains would be by driving to a major city. Even many people in urban areas served by high-speed rail would be closer to airports than downtown rail stations. As a result, high-speed rail lines would move a relatively insignificant amount of passenger travel. A recent report compiling all of the often-optimistic projections of high-speed rail ridership estimated that the FRA high-speed rail lines would carry 20.6 billion passenger miles of travel in 2025—less than 2 percent of what the interstates carried in 2007.
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PROBLEMS WITH THE U.S. SYSTEM OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL ARE EXAGGERATED I. THE EXISTING SYSTEM OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL MAXIMIZES SAFETY. A. THE RADAR-BASED SYSTEM OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL USES REDUNDANCY TO ASSURE SAFETY. Dale Wright, (Dir., Safety and Technology, National Air Traffic Controllers Association), FAA REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 40. The current ground-based radar system gathers its information from numerous radar sights located throughout the country. If one radar sight were to fail, another site could act as a back up. For example, if a terminal radar site were to fail, Center Radar, or CENRAP, from the nearest en route radar site would be able to provide the relevant data. In most cases when this occurs, FAA separation requirements are increased from three miles to five miles, but safety is maintained and service is uninterrupted. B. COMMERCIAL AVIATION HAS AN UNMATCHED RECORD FOR SAFETY. Alan Levin, (Staff), USA TODAY, Jan. 21, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 from http://travel.usatoday.com/ flights/2011-01-21-RWaircrashes20_ST_N.htm. U.S. airlines did not have a single fatality last year. It was the third time in the past four years there were no deaths, continuing a dramatic trend toward safer skies. Years without deaths have occurred sporadically since the dawn of the jet age, but never have so many occurred in so short a period, according to an analysis of data from the National Transportation Safety Board. The average number of deaths fell from about 86 a year in the 1990s to 46 a year since 2000, a 46% drop. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 97. Today the probability of dying in a commercial aviation crash is at an all-time low, following a dramatic improvement in safety during the past ten years. Agnes Pawlowski, (Staff, CNN), AVIATION SAFETY RATE, Feb. 22, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 from http://edition.cnn.com/2010/TRAVEL/02/22/aviation.safety.report/. The year's accident rate for Western-built jet aircraft was the second lowest in modern aviation history -- just behind 2006, according to a new report by the International Air Transport Association. The group started keeping records in 1964. "It's the airlines continuing to invest in training and technology on the aircraft," said Steve Lott, the group's head of communications for North America. "We like to remind passengers that they are still in very safe hands. Aviation is still the safest form of transportation, and looking at the statistics, it's still very rare and growing increasingly rare that we see any accidents." Alan Levin, (Staff), USA TODAY, Jan. 21, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 from http://travel.usatoday.com/ flights/2011-01-21-RWaircrashes20_ST_N.htm. Safety analysts, such as [John] Cox and the Federal Aviation Administration, credit the improving safety record to scores of initiatives that have gone into place in recent decades. Among the most critical enhancements: technology that has nearly wiped out collisions with the ground and other aircraft, improved training and data collection that identifies hazards before they cause accidents. Many of these improvements were done voluntarily through a decade-long cooperative effort between industry and the FAA, says Administrator Randy Babbitt. "We have identified and eliminated many of the major risks in the system and we will continue to act on the remaining safety challenges and keep air travelers safe," Babbitt says. II. NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF COMMERCIAL AVIATION ARE EXAGGERATED A. AIR TRANSPORTATION IS A MINOR CONTRIBUTOR TO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. M. Durruti, (Journalist), EU TO CAP AIRLINE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, July 12, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 from http://durrutilog.blogspot.com/2011/07/eu-to-cap-airline-greenhouse-gas.html. In the big picture airlines only account for about 2% of greenhouse gases emissions, so maybe we could focus on more serious culprits; remember the Pareto principle? B. THE EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL AVIATION IS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE. T.K. Kallenbach, (Vice President, Honeywell Aerospace), FAA REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 46. The aviation industry continues to make great strides in improving the efficiency of aircraft operations. Over the past 30 years, airlines have more than doubled their average fuel economy. The industry continues to invest in more efficient airframes, engines, and systems, with a laser focus on reducing operating costs and achieving carbon- neutral industry growth. C. INCREASING FUEL EFFICIENCY OF MODERN AIRCRAFT HAS MINIMIZED THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF AIR TRANSPORTATION. NEW YORK TIMES, Aug. 3, 2011, 24. American airlines are already making progress. The Transportation Department says American airlines have emitted 15 percent fewer emissions from 2000 through 2009 while carrying about 15 percent more passengers and cargo. FIRST NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 45
PROBLEMS WITH NEXTGEN JUSTIFY CAUTION IN ADOPTING THE SYSTEM I. PRELIMINARY TESTING OF THE NEXTGEN SYSTEM JUSTIFIES CAUTION IN ADOPTING THE SYSTEM. A. NEXTGEN SOFTWARE FAILURES DEMONSTRATE THE RISKS INVOLVED IN SHELVING THE PROVEN RADAR-BASED SYSTEM. Dale Wright, (Dir., Safety and Technology, National Air Traffic Controllers Association), FAA REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 37. ERAM testing has yielded more than 40,000 problem reports (PRs), over 100 of which are considered to be Initial Operating Capability (IOC) critical, meaning they must be resolved prior to deploying the system for use with live traffic. As of less than 2 months ago, officials on the ERAM team disclosed that ERAM had yet to remain stable and functional for a full twenty-four hours of continuous operational testing. Additionally, air traffic controllers have come across significant problems with the human interface of ERAM, as they found the new formats cumbersome, confusing, and difficult to navigate. NATCA is very concerned about the risk to the NAS if ERAM is implemented before these problems are comprehensively addressed. Short-term, piecemeal fixes or work-arounds are unacceptable. ERAM must be deployed only when the technology is stable and fully functional because failure of ERAM, particularly during peak traffic hours, would create extreme confusion and put the safety of the flying public at risk. Calvin Scovel, (Inspector General, U.S. Dept. of Transportation), CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Oct. 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from Nexis. FAA's primary goals for NextGen, such as increasing airspace capacity and reducing flight delays, depend on successfully implementing ERAM—a $2.1 billion system for processing flight data. FAA originally planned to complete ERAM by the end of 2010, but ERAM continues to experience software-related problems that have pushed schedules well beyond original completion dates and increased costs by hundreds of millions of dollars. ERAM's problems are the result of a number of fundamental programmatic and contract management concerns, and prolonged problems will directly impact the cost and pace of NextGen. B. MANY NEXTGEN COMPONENTS REMAIN UNTESTED. Dale Wright, (Dir., Safety and Technology, National Air Traffic Controllers Association), FAA REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 42. To create and outline the procedures at this early stage of the development process is both disingenuous and irresponsible. The FAA is misleading its stakeholders into thinking the process is already further along than it actually is. It is also spending time, money and manpower developing procedures and plans when it is unknown precisely how the necessary tools will function. This means that FAA is either developing broad and non-specific procedures, which are largely useless except as a public relations tool, or they are developing specific procedures which will likely need to be rebuilt once the technology is available. II. NEXTGEN IS BASED UPON A RISKY PLAN TO REPLACE TRAINED AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS WITH UNTESTED AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS. A. THE FAA HAS NOT CONSULTED AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS IN THE DESIGN FEATURES OF NEXTGEN. Dale Wright, (Dir., Safety and Technology, National Air Traffic Controllers Association), FAA REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 33. In Europe, EuroControl has undertaken a modernization projected called SESAR, which is similar in size and scope to NextGen. Leaders of EuroControl recognize the importance of including frontline air traffic control workforce into this project's development. Unfortunately for NextGen, the FAA's taking the opposite approach. Although NATCA has reached out many times to offer our expertise, the FAA has rejected our offers. They made it abundantly clear they do not value the professional knowledge and expertise that NATCA brings to the table. B. NEXTGEN IS DANGEROUS IN THAT IT INTENDS TO RELY ON INDIVIDUAL PILOTS TO MONITOR THEIR OWN FLIGHT PATHS. Dale Wright, (Dir., Safety and Technology, National Air Traffic Controllers Association), FAA REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 42. The FAA's NextGen plans include increased automation and eventual self-separation of aircraft, resulting in a shift in the "traditional responsibilities and practices of pilots/controllers." Under the proposed system, air traffic control would shift to what the FAA is euphemistically referring to as "Trajectory Management." Essentially, air traffic controllers would discontinue active air traffic control and shift instead to air traffic monitoring and route management. This could have serious implications for the safety of the NAS. Studies have shown that "when acting as a monitor of an automated system, people are frequently slow in detecting that a problem has occurred that necessitates their intervention. Once detected, additional time is also needed to determine the state of the system and sufficiently understand what is happening in order to be able to act in an appropriate manner The extra time associated with performing these steps can be critical, prohibiting performance of the very activity the human is present to handle." Safe air traffic control depends on the ability to quickly assess situations and make split second decisions.
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PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ALREADY RECEIVES ITS FAIR SHARE OF FUNDING I. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ALREADY EXTENSIVELY FUNDS PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION. A. FEDERAL HIGHWAY TRUST FUNDS ARE CURRENTLY DIVERTED TO FUND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 49. The 1982 Federal Highway Revenue Act created the Mass Transit Account (MTA) within the Highway Trust Fund to cover the growing subsidies to mass transit. Of the 18.4 cents a gallon collected through the federal gasoline tax, 2.86 cents are placed in the MTA. Similarly, more than thirty states allocate part of their gas tax revenues to mass transit. Heritage Foundation, SOLUTIONS FOR AMERICA, Vol. 11, Aug. 17, 2010, 1. More than 20% of trust fund spending (and motorist fuel taxes) goes to transit. B. THE FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION’S “NEW STARTS” PROGRAM INVESTS IN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 65. Because of the Federal Transit Administration's New Starts program, which helps support transit capital investments, cities have been able to construct new transit systems, especially rail transit, for more than thirty years. Public funds from all levels of government have been invested in twenty-two new light rail systems and five new heavy rail systems. In the future, a greater share of New Starts funding is likely to be spent on bus transit projects because the program is running out of cities that are willing and able to support a (subsidized) rail system. However, the Obama administration has recently announced that it would funnel more money to cities to build streetcars, among other projects, to promote "livability." C. THE AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT PROVIDED FUNDING FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION. Arthur L. Guzzetti, (Vice President, American Public Transportation Association), APTA PRIMER ON TRANSIT FUNDING, Nov. 17, 2011, 42. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), P.L. 111-5, February 17, 2009, provides additional funds for transit. The ARRA was enacted in order to stimulate the economy. The ARRA appropriated a total of $787 billion including $48 billion for transportation of which $8.4 billion was specifically for transit capital investment. Transit funds were directed to seven programs. Over $7.5 billion or nearly 90 percent of the funds were apportioned through existing Federal Transit Administration formula programs with amounts available to recipients published in the Federal Register in early March 2009. The remaining $867 million was distributed through discretionary grants by the FTA. ARRA grants could have up to a 100 percent federal share. II. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS PROVIDE FUNDING FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION. A. CITIES ARE INCREASING THEIR INVESTMENTS IN LIGHT RAIL SYSTEMS. Zach Patton, (Staff, Governing Magazine), U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 110. Today's focus is light-rail transit—trains that typically run at street level, with the traffic. Light-rail platforms are more akin to bus stops than subway stations. For these reasons, light rail costs a fraction of what heavy rail does. The city of San Diego launched the first modern light-rail line in 1981. But it was only after Portland, Oregon, demonstrated how light rail could drive development patterns and Dallas showed that trains in the Sun Belt could attract solid ridership that more cities began passing local-option sales taxes to pay for systems of their own. Light rail became the new transit zeitgeist. "Over the last 10 years, but really since 2000, light rail has exploded, both in terms of cities' interest in building it and in terms of ridership," says Jason Jordan, director of the Center for Transportation Excellence, a nonpartisan research center on transit policy. B. STATES HAVE AVAILABLE NUMEROUS FUNDING SOURCES FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION. Education Fund, Arizona Public Interest Research Group, WHY AND HOW TO FUND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, Mar. 2009, 3. New funding for public transportation can come to states from a variety of different sources. These include: sales taxes, general revenues, development fees and additional funds from the federal government. Alternative levies can be designed to simultaneously raise revenue while also ensuring that commuters pay their fair share of the social costs caused by driving. FIRST NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 47
III. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION RECEIVES MORE THAN ITS SHARE OF FEDERAL TRANSPORTATION SPENDING. A. HIGHWAYS ACCOUNT FOR 90% OF PASSENGER MILES, YET RECEIVE ONLY 70% OF FEDERAL TRANSPORTATION GRANTS. Andrew Morriss, (Prof., Business, U. Alabama), THE FALSE PROMISE OF GREEN ENERGY, 2011, 191. Contrary to the claims of disproportionate spending on highways, mass transit already receives more than its share (as measured by passenger-miles) of government funds. Data for 2001-03 from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics indicate that although mass transit is responsible for less than 1 percent of the total passenger-miles moved in the United States, it receives about 23 percent of the federal transportation grants (in dollars). This ratio is consistent with the 2009 stimulus bill; it allocates $27 billion for highway projects and $12 billion for rail and mass transit projects. Highways, responsible for almost 90 percent of the passenger-miles, receive only about 70 percent of the grants. B. STATES ARE FORCED TO SPEND TEN TIMES AS MUCH ON PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION AS WOULD BE PROPORTIONATELY “FAIR.” Diana Furchtgott-Roth, (Analyst, Manhattan Institute), A GOOD, BUT NOT GREAT HIGHWAY BILL, Feb. 2, 2012. Retrieved Feb. 24, 2012 from http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/miarticle.htm?id=7864. States are now required to spend 20 percent of their Highway Trust Fund allocation on mass transit, yet only 2 percent of passenger miles are used by mass transit. Just as users of roads should pay all of their costs, such as construction and maintenance, so should users of mass transit. If individual states want to subsidize mass transit, they should do it out of their own revenues. With Uncle Sam broke, the Federal government should not be subsidizing expensive mass transit systems. C. SPENDING FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HAS INCREASED FAR FASTER THAN HAS RIDERSHIP. Wendell Cox, (Visiting Fellow, Institute for Economic Policy Studies, Heritage Foundation), WASHINGTON'S WAR ON CARS AND THE SUBURBS, June 17, 2010, 14. Transit is very heavily subsidized, especially compared to other modes of transportation. The federal transit subsidy per 1,000 passenger miles amounted to $166 in 2006, while federal highway revenues produced a net profit of $1.21 per passenger mile. Moreover, transit expenditures have risen far faster than ridership. Since 1982, when the federal government granted transit access to highway user fee subsidies, transit expenditures (adjusted for inflation) have increased approximately 100 percent. At the same time, transit usage has increased less than 40 percent. IV. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS WASTE MONEY ON EXPENSIVE RAIL SYSTEMS WHILE IGNORING THE EQUITY ADVANTAGES OF CHEAPER BUS SYSTEMS. A. MOST NEW PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION FUNDING GOES TO RAIL SYSTEMS. Sam Staley, (Dir., Urban Land Use Policy, Reason Foundation), MOBILITY FIRST: A NEW VISION FOR TRANSPORTATION IN GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, 2009, 158-159. The discrepancy between public transit and automobile travel was likely made worse by an almost ideological commitment by transportation planners to fixed-route rail systems at the federal and local level. Most of the funding for major new projects has gone to these rail projects, not flexible bus or "rubber-tire" alternatives. Of the 208 projects funded through the federal government's "New Starts" transit program through fiscal year 2004, just 15 were for bus rapid transit projects. The federal government was sinking 30 times more money into rail projects than bus. Rail lines are a limited technology that can only connect places in a thin line running across the city. Hence many, if not most, trips on rail transit include a leg on at least one bus to get to the rail line from home, or to work from the rail line. Rail transit is also very expensive, and cities that have spent large percentages of their transportation budgets have forgone adequate road building and even diverted funds from buses, allowing congestion to worsen on the roads the buses have to travel. B. BUSES OFFER A SUPERIOR ALTERNATIVE. Jonathan Miller, (Analyst, Urban Land Institute), INFRASTRUCTURE 2009: PIVOT POINT, 2009, 17. The concept seems low tech and somehow too retro. But buses may offer a game-changing solution to easing congestion and speeding commuting times in some major urban centers, especially in cities where monumental costs for rail and subway enhancements appear fiscally untenable. C. TRANSIT SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY FROM BUSES IN ORDER TO APPEAL TO THEIR “UPSCALE” CUSTOMERS. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, 64-65. "Middle-class automobile owners won't ride a bus," rail advocates claim, as if this somehow justifies spending billions of dollars to get a few snooty people out of their automobiles. In fact, transit ridership is more sensitive to frequency and speed than to whether the vehicles run on rubber tires or steel wheels. "When quantifiable service characteristics such as travel time and cost are equal," say researchers, "there is no evident preference for rail travel over bus." FIRST NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 48
HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY A STATE GOVERNMENT RESPONSIBILITY I. STATE GOVERNMENTS ARE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE. A. HIGHWAYS ARE OWNED AND OPERATED BY STATE GOVERNMENTS. Lewis Solomon, (Prof., Law, George Washington U.), THE PROMISE AND PERILS OF INFRASTRUCTURE PRIVATIZATION: THE MACQUARIE MODEL, 2009, 85. The interstate highway system was never an exercise in central planning, with the federal government planning and building a unified system. Although the initial, general plan for the interstates was worked out jointly by the federal government and state transportation departments, in reality what we call the "interstate highway system" is a patchwork of roadways owned and operated by separate state governments plus numerous other highway, bridge, and tunnel agencies. In some fourteen states, a mix of fuel and other taxes, tax-exempt debt, and toll revenue financing, not federal aid, developed major interstate highways. B. THE VAST MAJORITY OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING IS PROVIDED BY STATES. Marcia Clemmitt, (Analyst, CQ Researcher), URBAN ISSUES, 2009, 127. Primary responsibility for most government-funded infrastructure has shifted to states and localities. In 2004, the latest year for which complete data are available, the federal government spent $73.5 billion, or about 24 percent, of the total $312 billion in infrastructure spending in the United States. States and localities spent $238.7 billion. Of the total, $143.6 billion went to project construction, while the remaining $168.7 billion funded operation and maintenance, a proportion that's remained relatively stable for the past two decades, despite infrastructure aging. Jim Hightower, (Journalist), HOW SAFE IS AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 44. While federal infrastructure outlays in the 1960s were equal to the amounts spent by state and local governments, locals are now putting up three times what the feds spend, with the federal investment shrinking [in 2006] to an abysmal 0.7% of GDP. C. NINETY PERCENT OF HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE IS FUNDED BY STATE GOVERNMENTS. Nathan Musick, (Economist, Congressional Budget Office), PUBLIC SPENDING ON TRANSPORTATION AND WATER INFRASTRUCTURE, 2010, ix. In recent years, not quite half of total public funding for transportation and water infrastructure in the United States has been devoted to capital spending for activities such as construction and equipment purchases. State and local governments have accounted for about 60 percent of those expenditures, and the federal government has accounted for about 40 percent. A little more than half of total public spending for such infrastructure has been used for operation and maintenance, of which state and local governments have provided about 90 percent. Robert Sunshine, (Deputy Director, Congressional Budget Office), SURFACE TRANSPORTATION: INFRASTRUCTURE, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES AND SAFETY, 2010, 114. Federal outlays are directed almost entirely to capital projects and account for slightly less than one-half of all public spending on such projects. In contrast, state and local governments provide virtually all of the public spending to operate and maintain the surface transportation infrastructure. II. FIX-IT-FIRST POLICIES AT THE STATE LEVEL WOULD HAVE A MUCH GREATER IMPACT ON HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE. A. A GROWING NUMBER OF STATES HAVE ADOPTED FIX-IT-FIRST POLICIES. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 36. At least 17 states have adopted "Fix it First" policies, while other states have designated priority funding areas or set targets for infrastructure investments to meet state-specific goals. For example, New Jersey's "Fix it First" policy, created in 2000, required transportation agencies to halve the amount of decaying infrastructure in five years. In 2003, then-Governor McGreevey strengthened this commitment by issuing an Executive Order to expedite "Fix it First" projects."' B. ALL OF THE STATES COULD ADOPT FIX-IT-FIRST POLICIES WITH THEIR OWN HIGHWAY FUNDING. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 37. All states should adopt Fix it First policies analogous to those in Maryland, New Jersey and Illinois. For example, in 1999, Illinois passed Illinois FIRST (a Fund for Infrastructure, Roads, Schools and Transit)—a five- year, $12 billion program to restore aging roads and bridges, revitalize mass transit, repair suburban schools, clean up urban brownfields, upgrade water and sewer systems and improve quality of life throughout the state. Specifically, these policies should require state departments of transportation to focus on the rehabilitation of existing transportation facilities before turning attention to the construction of new highways.
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FEDERAL PROGRAMS ADEQUATE PROVIDE FOR HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE I. FEDERAL HIGHWAY GRANTS SPECIFICALLY TARGET MAINTENANCE OBJECTIVES. A. THE FEDERAL “INTERSTATE MAINTENANCE PROGRAM” TARGETS HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 21. The Interstate Maintenance Program is primarily directed toward preserving the national network of Interstate Highways in good condition. Eligible uses of funds include: "resurfacing, restoring, rehabilitating, and reconstructing" Interstate routes. Any portion of a project's cost attributable to new capacity additions other than HOV lanes is not eligible for Interstate Maintenance Program funding. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 22. Funding for the Interstate Maintenance Program is based on equal parts: Interstate lane miles open to traffic within a state; Vehicle miles traveled on Interstate routes open to traffic; and Annual contributions to the Highway Account of the Highway Trust Fund attributable to commercial vehicles. B. TWO OF THE SIX FEDERAL HIGHWAY PROGRAMS TARGET MAINTENANCE. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 22. There are six main federal programs providing funding to the states for highway transportation activities. Two of those funds are specifically oriented towards preservation and rehabilitation: the Interstate Maintenance Program and the Highway Bridge Program. Additionally, funds within the National Highway System apportionment or the Surface Transportation Program can be used for maintenance—along with a wide variety of other activities, including new road construction. II. CONGRESSIONAL EARMARKS NO LONGER DISTORT TRANSPORTATION SPENDING. A. BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS HAVE AGREED TO BAN EARMARKS FOR ALL LEGISLATION PASSED IN THE CURRENT SESSION OF CONGRESS. WASHINGTON TIMES, Apr. 5, 2012, B2. The Senate recently gave up the special-interest projects through 2013. House Republicans passed the ban in their conference rules for the 112th Congress. "If anything, we need to strengthen the earmark ban," said Mr. Jordan. "We should put it into the official rules of the House and make it permanent." Kelly Field, (Staff), THE CHRONICLE OF HIGHER EDUCATION, Apr. 1, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 from Nexis. The earmark moratorium dates to the 2010 election, when Republican candidates-backed by members of the Tea Party-campaigned for the House of Representatives on a promise to eliminate wasteful spending. By March of last year, Senate Democrats had reluctantly agreed to a two-year freeze on earmarks. Though earmarks, noncompetitive grants tucked into legislation by members of Congress, represented only about one-half of 1 percent of the federal budget, they had long been controversial. Daniel Mallow, (Staff), THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION, Dec. 27, 2011, 1A. Earmarks, the prominent symbol of congressional cronyism and excess, were declared dead this year by both houses of Congress. B. EARMARKS NEVER WERE ANYTHING MORE THAN A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TRANSPORTATION SPENDING. Ron Nixon, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Feb. 3, 2012, A17. Earmarks have always been a tiny part of federal spending, accounting for less than 1 percent of the budget. And by 2010, the last fiscal year before the ban, the amount spent on them had declined to $15.9 billion from $29 billion in 2006, according to Taxpayers for Common Sense, a Washington research group. C. MOST EARMARKS SERVE USEFUL PURPOSES. Burt Solomon, (Staff, National Journal), U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 15. The 2005 highway legislation (known, improbably, as SAFETEA-LU) authorized $286 billion over six years, $32 billion more than the Bush administration wanted. But this amount was miserly compared with the House- approved $380 billion. Members of Congress earmarked just one-tenth of the money for particular projects back home, and not all of those were considered boondoggles. An earmark, for instance, funded the newly built Woodrow Wilson Bridge along the Capital Beltway between Virginia and Maryland.
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ADDITIONAL FEDERAL INVESTMENT IN INLAND WATERWAYS IS UNNECESSARY I. THE BARGE INDUSTRY, RATHER THAN THE TAXPAYER, SHOULD FUND IMPROVEMENTS IN INLAND WATERWAY INFRASTRUCTURE. A. PUBLIC MAINTENANCE OF THE LOCKS AND DAMS ON INLAND WATERWAYS IS A PRIME EXAMPLE OF CORPORATE WELFARE. Izaak Walton League, ANOTHER CORPORATE BAILOUT: INLAND WATERWAYS TRUST FUND, 2010. Retrieved Mar. 14, 2012 from http://www.iwla.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/5034/pid/5034. The inland waterways navigation system – the locks and dams constructed on several of the country’s major rivers – is the most publically subsidized commercial transportation system in the United States, receiving about 90 percent of its funding from taxpayers. Despite this immense level of corporate welfare, the barge industry, through the Inland Waterways User’s Board, has proposed an increase in the public’s contribution, which would likely raise the subsidy to near 95 percent. B. THE BARGE INDUSTRY IS ALREADY THE MOST HEAVILY SUBSIDIZED FORM OF TRANSPORTATION IN AMERICA. Brad Walker, (Analyst, Nicollet Island Coalition), BIG PRICE, LITTLE BENEFIT, Feb. 2010, 25. The inland waterways navigation system is recognized as the most subsidized transportation sector in this country. Further, this taxpayer-provided support is consistently regarded as a poor investment. As Dr. Sweeney concluded in the report, "A Critique of 'Final Re-Evaluation of the Recommended Plan: UMR-IWW [Upper Mississippi River-Illinois Waterway] System Navigation Study: Interim Study'," published in 2009, "The re- evaluation completed by the Corps of the National Economic Development (NED) benefits of the navigation-related components of the recommended plan originally identified in their 2004 feasibility report...does not support funding the costly construction of new lock chambers in the near future." American Rivers, CONSERVATION AND WATCHDOG GROUPS OPPOSE BARGE INDUSTRY'S PLAN TO SHIFT COSTS TO TAXPAYERS, June 21, 2010, Retrieved Apr. 5, 2012 from http://www.iwla.org/index.php? ht=d/ContentDetails/i/5035. Currently, the inland waterways system is publicly subsidized at approximately 90 percent, including 50 percent of the costs for new construction projects and rehabilitation projects, and 100 percent of all operation and maintenance expenses. This is the largest rate of subsidy among all freight shipping modes in the country. The industry provides about $80 million per year to the IWTF [Inland Waterway Trust Fund] through a $0.20 per gallon fuel tax that has not increased since 1995. The remaining more than $720 million required to keep the system functioning is provided by taxpayers. The letter’s authors estimate the IMTS recommendations will further increase the public subsidy for inland waterway construction and rehabilitation by about $200 million annually, while adding major additional taxpayer obligations for operating and maintaining the inland waterway system. C. COASTAL PORT OPERATORS PAY FOR MOST OF THE COST OF ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEER PROJECTS, WHEREAS BARGE OPERATORS PAY ALMOST NOTHING. Steve Ellis, (Vice President, Taxpayers for Common Sense), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 22-23. Unlike the highways, railways, ports, and other Corps programs under this committee's jurisdiction, inland waterway users pay nothing for maintenance. There is no market mechanism to separate the waterway wheat from the chaff, yielding a system where 17 segments had 2.3 percent of the total traffic, yet reaped 30 percent of the operations and maintenance funding. By the Corps' own analysis, over the last 3 years users have recovered only about 8 percent—8 percent—of inland navigation costs. In contrast, coastal ports users cover nearly 80 percent of the costs. D. PROJECTED DECLINES IN BARGE TRAFFIC MAKE IT UNNECESSARY TO BUILD THE NEW LOCKS PROPOSED BY THE INLAND WATERWAYS USERS BOARD. Brad Walker, (Analyst, Nicollet Island Coalition), BIG PRICE, LITTLE BENEFIT, Feb. 2010, iv. As the environmental functions of the rivers have shifted, so have the economic opportunities in agriculture in the Upper Midwest. From 1950 through the late 1970s, the Mississippi River experienced steady growth in agricultural commodities traffic moving down the river via barge. However, since 1980, Mississippi River barge traffic has fluctuated significantly and the overall trend has been less traffic. At one key lock at Alton, Illinois, for example, barge traffic has declined from its peak of 80.5 million tons in 1990 down to 56.3 million tons in 2008. The causes of this transition include significant growth in agricultural production in other parts of the world and less demand than expected from emerging markets like China. In addition, the demand for biofuels and locally grown foods has skyrocketed, enabling growers to sell agricultural products much closer to home. FIRST NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 51
BUILDING BIGGER LOCKS AND DAMS IS INADVISABLE I. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEER PROJECTS IN INLAND WATERWAYS DISRUPT DELICATE ECOSYSTEMS. A. AMERICA’S INLAND WATERWAYS ARE HOME TO DELICATE ECOSYSTEMS. Brad Walker, (Analyst, Nicollet Island Coalition), BIG PRICE, LITTLE BENEFIT, Feb. 2010, 1. The Mississippi River corridor contains an ecosystem that is home to over 200 fish and mussel species and nearly 300 varieties of birds. It serves as the migratory path for 40 percent of North America's waterfowl. More than 12 million people annually recreate on and along the Upper Mississippi River, spending $1.2 billion and supporting 18,000 jobs. Each year, more people use the Upper Mississippi than visit Yellowstone National Park. Staff Report of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, x. The Nation's inland waterways footprint contains millions of acres fish and wildlife habitat in the form of bottomland forest, islands, backwaters, side channels, and wetlands. For instance, the 2.6 million acre Upper Mississippi River-Illinois Waterway footprint contains hundreds of thousands of these acres that support 270 species of birds, 57 species of mammals, 45 species of reptiles and amphibians, 113 species of fish, and nearly 50 species of mussels. More than 40% of North America's migratory waterfowl and shorebirds depend on the resources, shelter, and habitat the region provides. More importantly, the region is home to 30 million Americans. Supplementing this diverse habitat, the region has 5 National Wildlife Refuges along the corridor comprising almost 300,000 acres. B. DAMS ARE DISRUPTIVE TO DELIVATE RIVER ECOSYSTEMS. Brad Walker, (Analyst, Nicollet Island Coalition), BIG PRICE, LITTLE BENEFIT, Feb. 2010, iv. River ecosystems were radically altered when 29 dams with accompanying locks were built on the rivers and barge traffic commenced. The dams transformed the Upper Mississippi River System into a string of reservoirs, halting the flows and processes of rivers that for centuries produced a dynamic environment and vital wildlife habitat. C. THE PROPOSED REVISIONS TO THE SYSTEM OF LOCKS AND DAMS WILL FURTHER DEGRADE THE RIVER ECOSYSTEMS. Brad Walker, (Analyst, Nicollet Island Coalition), BIG PRICE, LITTLE BENEFIT, Feb. 2010, 6. The Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers have been profoundly changed by the establishment of the UMR- IWW navigation system. The rivers' ecosystems continue to degrade further, outpacing all current attempts to slow their decline. Experts both outside of, and within, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have expressed a consensus of opinion that ecosystem restoration is required on the UMR [Upper Mississippi River] System. This report examines and details the lock construction plan that is the principal obstacle preventing the uncompromised pursuit and implementation of science-based solutions to ecosystem degradation. The NESP program authorized in the 2007 Water Resources Development Act is a conflicted and misguided plan ultimately undermined by its unjustified authorization for new large-scale navigation construction on the UMR-IWW [Upper Mississip River-Illinois Waterway]. D. ANY FUNDS SPENT FOR CONSTRUCTION OF LOCKS AND DAMS WILL INEVITABLY DIMINISH FUNDING FOR ECOSYSTEM RENOVATION PROJECTS. Steve Ellis, (Vice President, Taxpayers for Common Sense), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 23. Any lawmaker with Corps projects in their district should take note. There will be real and serious impacts from the Inland Waterways Users Board proposal. They want $380 million for construction annually, more than doubling present spending levels. Congress is supposed to adopt at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction by year's end. It is unrealistic to think the Corps' budget is going to increase in the foreseeable future. That means it is a zero sum gain. Any increase for inland waterway projects will come at the expense of harbor deepenings, beach replenishment, flood control, and environmental restoration projects. E. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS HAVE A HISTORY OF ENVIRONMENT DEGRADATION. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy, Cato Institute), WASHINGTON POST, Oct. 21, 2011. Retrieved Feb. 19, 2012 from http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13788. The Corps of Engineers has been building levees, canals and other civilian water infrastructure for more than 200 years — and it has made missteps the entire time. In the post-Civil War era, for example, there were widespread complaints about the Corps' wastefulness and mismanagement. A 1971 book by Arthur Morgan, a distinguished engineer and former chairman of the Tennessee Valley Authority, concluded: "There have been over the past 100 years consistent and disastrous failures by the Corps in public works areas ... resulting in enormous and unnecessary costs to ecology [and] the taxpayer." Some of the highest-profile failures include the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927. That disaster dramatically proved the shortcomings of the Corps' approach to flood control, which it had stubbornly defended despite outside criticism. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was like a dreadful repeat. The flooding was in large part a man-made disaster stemming from poor engineering by the Corps and misdirected funding by Congress. FIRST NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 52
PORT SECURITY I. THE THREAT OF A NUCLEAR TERRORIST ATTACK ON U.S. PORTS IS EXAGGERATED. A. INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IS IN DECLINE. Han Berman, (Vice President, American Foreign Policy Council), WINNING THE LONG WAR: RETAKING THE OFFENSIVE AGAINST RADICAL ISLAM, 2009, 2. For all intents and purposes, the organization that carried out the most devastating terrorist attack in U.S. history no longer exists. In the years since September 11, U.S. and allied counterterrorism operations have decimated the top leadership of the bin Laden network, eliminating and apprehending key operational commanders and disrupting the organization's day-to-day operations. Even a partial accounting of the organization's casualties to date paints a clear picture of the successes that have been racked up by the United States and its allies. James Fallows, (Staff, Atlantic Monthly), TERRORISM, 2009, 47. Kilcullen says, "The al-Qaeda that existed in 2001 simply no longer exists. In 2001 it was a relatively centralized organization, with a planning hub, a propaganda hub, a leadership team, all within a narrow geographic area. All that is gone, because we destroyed it." Where bin Laden's central leadership team could once wire money around the world using normal bank networks, it now must rely on couriers with vests full of cash. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), DEBATING TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, 379. Most important for present purposes, it seems likely that any notion that the actual al-Qaeda enemy could come up with nuclear weapons is far-fetched in the extreme. As Carle warns, "We must not take fright at the specter our leaders have exaggerated. In fact, we must see jihadists for the small, lethal, disjointed and miserable opponents that they are." Al-Qaeda "has only a handful of individuals capable of planning, organizing and leading a terrorist organization," and although they have threatened attacks with nuclear weapons, "its capabilities are far inferior to its desires." B. THE WORRY ABOUT A BLACK MARKET IN NUCLEAR MATERIALS IS MISPLACED. James Moore, (Sr. Strategic Analyst, Canada Dept. of National Defense), TERRORISM, 2009, 88-89. Allison and Ferguson, et al. give the impression that there exists a thriving black market in nuclear material, a virtual "Home Depot" for "do-it-yourself" nuclear bomb makers. In fact, the black market in fissile material is tiny and undeveloped. In 1995, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) established the Illicit Trafficking Database (ITDB) in order to track the "unauthorized acquisition, provision, possession, use, transfer, or disposal of nuclear materials and other radioactive materials, whether intentional or unintentional and with or without crossing international borders, including unsuccessful and thwarted events." According to the ITDB, as of 31 December 2004, there were 662 confirmed incidents of trafficking in radioactive sources. Of these, only 18 involved nuclear materials that "could be a shortcut to nuclear proliferation and to nuclear terrorism." The ITDB notes that, of these 18, only a few involved more than small quantities of weapons-grade material. Indeed, the cumulative amounts of highly enriched uranium and plutonium involved in all 18 incidents total only 8.521 kg and .373 kg, respectively. To put this in perspective, Ferguson, et al, estimate that terrorists would need 40 to 50 kg of weapons-grade HEU [highly enriched uranium] to have reasonable confidence that a simple gun-type IND would work. C. TERRORISTS WILL NOT ACQUIRE NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM THE RUSSIAN NUCLEAR STOCKPILE. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, 178. Security upgrades were completed for most Russian nuclear warhead and nuclear material sites by the end of 2008. HEU [highly enriched uranium] is being removed from sites all around the world, permanently eliminating the risk of nuclear theft at those sites. An alphabet soup of programs and initiatives—the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) effort, the Materials Protection, Control, and Accounting (MPC&A) program, the Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI), the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GI), the IAEA's Office of Nuclear Security, the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO), and many more—are each making real contributions. II. U.S. PORTS ARE ADEQUATELY PROTECTED FROM TERRORIST ATTACK. A. NEARLY ONE HUNDRED PERCENT OF INCOMING CARGO IS SCANNED FOR RADIOACTIVE DEVICES. Todd Owen, (Dir., Cargo and Conveyance Security, U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security), CARGO SECURITY AT LAND PORTS OF ENTRY: ARE WE MEETING THE CHALLENGE?, Hrg., Oct. 22, 2009, 6. The first radiation portal monitor was deployed in Detroit in 2002, and today we have over 1,400 scanning portals, allowing us to scan 100 percent of the cargo from Mexico, 99 percent of the cargo from Canada, and 98 percent of our maritime cargo arriving into our seaports. Kenneth Christopher, (Prof., Criminal Justice, Park U.), PORT SECURITY MANAGEMENT, 2009, 52. There is enough concern in the maritime sector about the scenarios associated with nuclear weapons of mass destruction that the U.S. government has authorized and funded the development and installation of radiation portal monitors in all U.S. Customs and Border Protection ports of entry. FIRST NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 53
B. THE SAFE PORT ACT ALLOWS SECURITY PERSONNEL TO TARGET HIGH RISK CARGO FOR SPECIAL SCREENING. Wayne Talley, (Prof., Economics, Old Dominion U.), PORT ECONOMICS, 2009, 175-176. The SAFE Port Act also requires improvements in the U.S. automatic targeting system program that collects and analyzes container cargo data for the targeting of high-risk cargo. Specifically, the data gathered on inbound containers to the U.S. from foreign ports will be encrypted and transmitted in near real time to the CBP's National Target Center. These data are to be combined with other data, such as manifest submissions, to improve the risk scoring for targeting high-risk containers. Participating governments will have immediate access to all data that is used to label a container as high-risk. The problem of a high-risk container will be resolved locally (i.e., by the foreign government or port), e.g., the foreign government may be asked to inspect the container's contents or shipping lines will be instructed not to load the container until the risk is fully resolved. C. THE CONTAINER SECURITY INITIATIVE ENLISTS THE SERVICES OF OTHER GOVERNMENTS TO ASSIST IN THE SCREENING OF OUTGOING CARGO BOUND FOR THE U.S. Wayne Talley, (Prof., Economics, Old Dominion U.), PORT ECONOMICS, 2009, 173-174. CSI was created to protect U.S. ports from terrorist attacks and to prevent the use of containers for the transportation of dangerous cargo. Specifically, foreign ports are asked to pre-screen containers (for dangerous cargo) before they are loaded onto U.S.-bound ships. Without CSI, containers arriving from foreign ports would likely have to be inspected at the importing U.S. ports. The CSI is a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and a foreign port (i.e., its government or port authority). The foreign port that handles substantial containerized cargo designated for the U.S. will identify high-risk containerized cargo and work with deployed CBP officers to target such cargo. As of the first quarter of 2007, 50 foreign ports, handling 85 percent of the container volume destined for the U.S., were designated as CSI ports D. THE AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT PROVIDED FUNDING TO IMPROVE CARGO SCREENING EQUIPMENT. Todd Owen, (Dir., Cargo and Conveyance Security, U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security), CARGO SECURITY AT LAND PORTS OF ENTRY: ARE WE MEETING THE CHALLENGE?, Hrg., Oct. 22, 2009, 56. The $420 million of ARRA funding dedicated to both the General Services Administration (GSA) and the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP)-owned land ports of entry and the $300 million dedicated to General Services Administration (GSA)-owned land ports of entry provides for critical security upgrades to enable law enforcement officers to do their jobs and protect national security along our Northern and Southern Borders. The modernization will also improve commercial inspection infrastructure, enabling CBP to efficiently and expeditiously screen, assess risk, and inspect incoming cargo. The ports will be built with dual-use primary inspection booths that can be configured to process both commercial and non-commercial traffic, and infrastructure to support radiation portal monitors to comply with the Congressional mandate to screen all commercial traffic entering the United States. E. THE SECURE FREIGHT INITIATIVE ENHANCES THE ABILITY TO SCAN CARGO FOR RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS. Alan Bersin, (Commissioner, Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security), SAFE PORT ACT REAUTHORIZATION: SECURING OUR NATION'S CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, Senate Hrg., July 21, 2010, 20. The Secure Freight Initiative (SFI) is an effort to enhance the U.S. government's ability to scan containers for nuclear and radiological materials at seaports worldwide and better assess the risk of inbound containers. This initiative is the culmination of our work with other Federal agencies, foreign governments, the trade community, and vendors of cutting-edge technology. SFI provides carriers of maritime containerized cargo greater confidence in the security of the shipment they are transporting, and increases the likelihood of an uninterrupted and secure flow of commerce. F. THE TRANSPORTATION WORKER IDENTIFICATION CREDENTIAL (TWIC) PROGRAM WILL PREVENT TERRORIST INFILTRATION IN U.S. PORTS. Kenneth Christopher, (Prof., Criminal Justice, Park U.), PORT SECURITY MANAGEMENT, 2009, 16. Probably the most significant outcome of the public policy direction focused on enhanced ship and port security has been the establishment of the U.S. Transportation Worker Identification Credential, or TWIC, program. TWIC was authorized by the passage of the Maritime Transportation Security Act (MTSA) of 2002. The program, administered by the Transportation Security Administration and the U.S. Coast Guard, requires the issuance of a tamper-resistant biometric credential for workers who require unescorted access to secure areas of ports, vessels, and outer continental shelf facilities and for all credentialed merchant mariners. Applicants for a TWIC must provide their fingerprints, name, date of birth, address, phone number, alien registration number (if applicable), photo, employer, and job title. Background checks will be conducted to review criminal history records, terrorist watch lists, immigration status, and outstanding wants and warrants. Originally, it was estimated that about a million workers including longshoremen, truckers, port employees, and others would require a TWIC. As of early 2008, the U.S. Coast Guard was estimating that up to 1.5 million workers could need TWICs. FIRST NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 54
SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL I. WALKING TO SCHOOL HAS LITTLE TO DO WITH THE RATE OF OBESITY AMONG SCHOOL CHILDREN. A. INCREASING CALORIC INTAKE IS THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF OBESITY AMONG SCHOOL CHILDREN. Dina ElBoghdady, (Staff), WASHINGTON POST, Feb. 7, 2012, A2. Nearly half of elementary school children can buy junk food at school, a trend that contributes to the childhood obesity epidemic and underscores the need for federal regulation of school snacks, according to a study published Monday in a pediatric journal. The study, funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, comes as federal regulators are crafting a proposal that would set new nutrition standards for foods and beverages sold in vending machines, snack bars and elsewhere in schools. Henrie Treadwell, (Staff), ATLANTA DAILY WORLD, Aug. 19, 2010, 7. Of particular concern for children is that sugar-sweetened beverages account for 10 percent to 15 percent of the daily calorie intake for children and adolescents, a percentage that has been steadily increasing over the past few decades, according to The New England Journal of Medicine. Bonnie Rochman, (Staff), TIME HEALTHLAND, Apr. 10, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 from http://healthland.time.com/2012/04/10/64-calories-a-day-what-kids-need-to-cut-to-reversing-the-obesity-trend/. Sixty-four calories is about four ounces of apple juice or a quarter of an oatmeal raisin walnut bar. It’s also the number of calories U.S. kids need to trim from their daily diet if they’re going to meet the federal goals for slashing obesity by 2020. Without cutting those calories — either by eating less, exercising more or both — a child or teen in 2020 would tip the scales at nearly 4 lbs. more than a kid of the same age weighed in 2007-08, according to research by Columbia University researchers published Tuesday in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine. That would result in more than 20% of children being classified as obese; the current figure is 17%. B. STUDIES OF SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL PROGRAMS HAVE FOUND NO MEASURABLE IMPACT ON RATES OF OBESITY. Anne Moudon, (Prof., Urban Planning, U. Washington), SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL (SRTS): STATEWIDE MOBILITY ASSESSMENT, Jan. 2010, Z-19. Two studies measured the health effects of active commuting over time. Neither study found a significant decrease in BMI [body mass index] among students who walked or biked to school over a two-year period. In fact, one study saw an increase in BMI among overweight children who did ATS [active transport to school] in rural Nebraska. C. SCHOOL-BASED NUTRITION EDUCATION PROGRAMS OFFER MORE PROMISING SOLUTIONS TO CHILDHOOD OBESITY. Henrie Treadwell, (Staff), ATLANTA DAILY WORLD, Aug. 19, 2010, 7. The most effective way to combat childhood obesity may be through education programs in the schools, where children and adolescents spend the majority of their day, as well as by changing the foods and beverages available to children while they are in school. Congress can take a stand in legislation reauthorizing the child nutrition programs that expire this fell. Supporters are calling for the establishment of nutrition standards for all food sold at schools, meals served in cafeterias and snacks offered in vending machines. David Katz, (Researcher, Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center), ANNUAL REVIEW OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 2009, 253. Despite marked variation in measures, methods, and populations that handicap interpretation of this literature, evidence clearly demonstrated that school-based interventions had significant effects on weight. II. SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL PROGRAMS MAKE NO DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF PEDESTRIAN ACCIDENTS. A. THE CURRENT NATIONAL TREND IS TOWARD A DECREASE IN PEDESTRIAN ACCIDENTS. Institute of Transportation Engineers, TRANSPORTATION PLANNING HANDBOOK, 3rd Ed., 2009, 974. As reported in the national crash database, 68,000 pedestrians were injured and more than 4,600 pedestrians were killed in traffic crashes in the United States in 2004. This represents a 15-percent decrease from the number of pedestrian fatalities reported in 1994, consistent with a decreasing trend in all road-related fatalities during the last 10 years. This also exceeds the goal of a 10-percent reduction set in the National Bicycling and Walking Study. B. THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF DECREASE FOR SCHOOLS THAT HAVE ADOPTED SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL PROGRAMS. National Center for Safe Routes to School, FEDERAL SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL PROGRAM EVALUATION PLAN, Aug. 2011, 39. Gutierrez and colleagues found no statistically significant differences in pedestrian and bicyclist crash reductions between SR2S-[Safe Routes to School]participating school areas and the non-SR2S control school areas. The treated areas witnessed a 13 percent reduction in vehicle-child pedestrian crashes, whereas the control areas saw a 15 percent reduction in such crashes. FIRST NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 55
HYDROGEN ECONOMY I. HYDROGEN FUEL IS NOT A PROMISING REPLACEMENT FOR GASOLINE AND DIESEL FUELS. A. HYDROGEN IS AN ENERGY CARRIER, RATHER THAN AN ENERGY SOURCE. Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 173. Let's put part of the hydrogen fuel myth to rest. Hydrogen is not a source of energy; it is a carrier of energy. There are no available reserves of hydrogen, so, before it can be used, it has to be made. Hydrogen can be made in a number of different ways, but whichever way you look at it, hydrogen does not provide energy; it consumes it. Vikram Janardhan, (CEO, Insera Energy, LLC), ENERGY EXPLAINED, Vol. 2, 2011, 114. So why aren't we all driving hydrogen cars? Can't we just make more H2? The answer is yes, but at great cost. Most hydrogen produced today is derived from natural gas through chemical processing. It can be produced from water, but that process—known as electrolysis—requires a substantial amount of energy to separate the H and the 0, and there is some question as to whether the end result would be worth it in terms of net energy. B. THE PRODUCTION OF HYDROGEN IS AN ENERGY INTENSIVE OPERATION. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND POWER, 2009, 134. Electrolysis using renewable electricity, wind, water or photovoltaics, could produce a domestic, non-polluting hydrogen transportation fuel. But, hydrogen produced today by this method can be more than 3 times the cost of an equivalent gallon of gasoline. If the electricity is supplied from the present electrical grid, which is more than 50% coal-fueled, it would generate even larger amounts of carbon emissions than the natural gas process. C. HYDROGEN IS A NET ENERGY-LOSER. Martin Nicholson, (Science Journalist, M.A. in Engineering, Cambridge U.), ENERGY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 78. The other downside with hydrogen as an energy storage method is that it takes much more energy to make the hydrogen than can be recovered. So producing hydrogen energy from electricity using electrolysis and converting it back to electricity in a fuel cell has a 'round-trip' energy efficiency of about 30-50% compared with batteries at about 70-80%. D. HYROGEN STORAGE IS PROBLEMATIC. Ram Gupta, (Prof., Engineering, Auburn U.), HYDROGEN FUEL: PRODUCTION, TRANSPORT, AND STORAGE, 2009, 25. One of the most critical factors in inducting hydrogen economy is transportation and on-vehicle storage of hydrogen. Storing hydrogen that flexibly links its production and final use are key element of the hydrogen fuel utilization. The major contribution to the problem is from low gas density of hydrogen. For example, to store energy equivalent to one gasoline tank, an ambient pressure hydrogen gas tank would be more than 3000-fold the volume of the gasoline tank. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 181-182. Storing hydrogen in the vehicles is complicated and expensive, whether as a liquid (pressurized at cryogenic temperatures) or as a gas (very high pressures). In the latter case, storage pressures up to 700 bars are required because hydrogen has a very low energy density per cubic meter. This means that a tank with a capacity of 5 kilograms of hydrogen, enough to travel 300-350 kilometers (around 200 miles), takes up ten times more space than the volume of gasoline needed to run the same distance. More important, its cost is much higher, about $3,000 to $4,000. E. HYDROGEN IS UNSAFE. Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 174. Hydrogen can be pressurized or liquefied, but, to be liquefied, it needs to be very, very cold, which presents significant engineering difficulties. If allowed to heat up (e.g., you leave the car in a parking lot to go shopping), the liquid hydrogen expands, becomes hydrogen gas again, and your car explodes. The storage tanks used for natural gas are liable to leak hydrogen, and that's not such a good thing, either. FIRST NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 56
F. HYDROGEN VEHICLES ARE TOO EXPENSIVE. Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 175. Experimental hydrogen-powered cars are under development by all the big automakers. The Mercedes Necar can zoom you along at a smooth seventy miles per hour and has a range of 450 miles, although it's jam-packed full of cells and fuel canisters, so don't try to take the family camping in it. The GM Sequel is a prototype fuel-cell vehicle that gets forty miles per gallon equivalent from hydrogen and can accelerate from zero to sixty in less than ten seconds. You can get your hands on one of these beauties for just a few million or so. G. HYDROGEN PRODUCED BY ELECTROLYSIS WOULD WORSEN THE SHORTAGE OF FRESH WATER. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND POWER, 2009, 28. Water sources could be another problem for hydrogen production, particularly in sunny regions that are well- suited for solar power. A study by the World Resources Institute in Washington, D.C. estimated that obtaining adequate hydrogen with electrolysis would require more than 4 trillion gallons of water yearly. This is equal to the flow over Niagara Falls every 90 days. Water consumption in the U.S. could increase by about 10%. H. HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS DEPEND UPON PRECIOUS METALS IN SHORT SUPPLY. Ed Hiserodt, (Aerospace Engineer & Pres., Controls & Powers, Inc.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: OPPOSING VIEWPOINTS, 2009, 113. While there is great enthusiasm for the hydrogen fuel cell for use in automobiles, this technology has been rightly called "the miracle that is always 10 years over the horizon." There are numerous problems, with cost being among the most serious. GM Vice President Larry Burns opined that the cost of fuel-cell vehicles must be reduced 90 percent to compete with internal combustion engines. One of the major cost factors is the significant amounts of platinum required as a catalyst for fuel-cell operation. I. HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS ARE INEFFICIENT. Anthony Perl, (Prof., Urban Studies, Simon Fraser U.), TRANSPORT REVOLUTIONS: MOVING PEOPLE AND FREIGHT WITHOUT OIL, 2010, 141. The main challenge to prospects of a "hydrogen economy" is its inherent inefficiency, especially when the hydrogen is to be produced using energy from renewable resources. These resources—chiefly sun, wind and falling water—produce electricity that would power electrolytic production of hydrogen that would be used to produce electricity in fuel cells. The transition from electricity to hydrogen and then back to electricity involves energy losses of between 57 percent and 80 percent. J. HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS HAVE A SHORT LIFE SPAN. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND POWER, 2009, 27. A potential problem with the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell, which is the type being developed for automobiles is life span. Internal combustion engines have an average life span of 15 years, or about 170,000 miles. Membrane deterioration can cause PEM fuel cells to fail after 2,000 hours or less than 100,000 miles. K. TOO MANY PROBLEMS WITH HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS REMAIN UNRESOLVED. John Tabak, (Science Journalist), NATURAL GAS AND HYDROGEN, 2009, 170. Despite more than a generation of on-again, off-again government research, not a single fundamental problem associated with the implementation of the hydrogen economy has been entirely overcome. What separates the hydrogen economy from certain other scientific research efforts—as, for example, missions to the Moon, computer- chip design, and the creation of the Internet—is that many of the barriers that have so far prevented the implementation of a hydrogen economy are closely associated with the fundamental properties of hydrogen, properties that can only be accommodated but not changed. This is the reason that political support, research, and subsidies have produced such modest results. Research programs can be legislated, but physics cannot. L. ELECTRIC CARS OFFER A SUPERIOR SOLUTION TO HYDROGEN FUELS. Werner Weindorf, (Policy Consultant, Ludwig-Boilkow-Systemtechnik), THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, 2009, 244. Electricity can be generated from a wide variety of energy sources, and battery-electric vehicles have a far higher efficiency than fuel-cell vehicles, as the high discharge rate of the battery is almost double the efficiency of a fuel cell. Battery-electric vehicles or PHEVs are also advantageous, as they can rely on an existing supply infrastructure. Werner Weindorf, (Policy Consultant, Ludwig-Boilkow-Systemtechnik), THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, 2009, 234. The current high interest in PHEVs [plug-in hybrid electric vehicles], especially in the USA, is fuelled by good overall energy efficiency and as they allow a smooth and flexible transition away from oil dependence in the transport sector. By using the electrical grid in the night, average electricity consumption is more constant, and more regenerative wind power could be fed into the grid. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 57
PRIVATIZATION DISADVANTAGE The thesis of this disadvantage is that federal spending on infrastructure squeezes out private investment in infrastructure projects. While infrastructure spending in the United States is currently largely done in the private sphere, the affirmative plan’s substantial increase in public sector investment will leave no room for private initiatives to bolster infrastructure. This is unfortunate, because private sector solutions are better for the economy and U.S. competitiveness than bloated governmental bureaucracies being put in charge on the nation’s transportation infrastructure. I. THE UNITED STATES IS CURRENTLY PRIVATIZING TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE. A. THE PUBLIC SECTOR IS INCREASINGLY PRIVATIZING INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy Studies, Cato Institute), FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, 2012 from www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/federal-infrastructure- investment. About $900 billion of state-owned assets have been sold in OECD countries since 1990, and about 63 percent of the total has been infrastructure assets. The OECD notes that "public provision of infrastructure has sometimes failed to deliver efficient investment with misallocation across sectors, regions or time often due to political considerations. Constraints on public finance and recognized limitations on the public sector's effectiveness in managing projects have led to a reconsideration of the role of the state in infrastructure provision." B. PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING CURRENTLY OUTPACES GOVERNMENT INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy Studies, Cato Institute), FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, 2012 from www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/federal-infrastructure- investment. The first thing to note about America's infrastructure is that most of it is not provided by the government, but by the private sector. A broad measure of private infrastructure spending — on items such as buildings, factories, freight rail, pipelines, and refineries — is much larger than government infrastructure spending on items such as roads and airports. In Figure 1, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that private gross fixed investment was $1.7 trillion in 2010, which compared to gross fixed investment by federal, state, and local governments of $505 billion.1 When defense investment is excluded, government infrastructure spending was just $388 billion, or less than one-quarter of private infrastructure spending. II. FEDERAL FUNDING FOR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE UNDERMINES THE BENEFITS OF PRIVATIZED INFRASTRUCTURE. A. GOVERNMENT SPENDING DIRECTLY TRADES-OFF WITH PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT. Jena Baker McNeill, (Policy Analyst, Heritage Foundation), BUILDING INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCY: PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT IN HOMELAND SECURITY, September 23, 2008. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 from http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/09/building-infrastructure-resiliency-private-sector-investment- in-homeland-security. The free market can improve and maintain infrastructure while stimulating economic growth. Wise investment by the private sector can lead to dollar gains to investors. This translates into more capital for these private-sector entities to reinvest in the market. The more the government spends, the less the private sector can engage in investment. A decrease in government spending can have an enormous effect on the economy. When Washington is too large, the "high spending undermines economic growth by transferring additional resources from the productive sector of the economy to government, which uses them less efficiently." In other words, federal spending is associated with significant transaction costs not experienced by the private sector. For example, the government must take money from individuals, meaning the U.S. population, before it can spend it. Instead of wasting time on the bureaucratic struggles and wasting American tax dollars on transaction costs, Washington should look past the Beltway and rely on the entrepreneurial energy of the private sector. As Secretary Chertoff stated, "What these businesses do need is information and guidance about the best way they can carry out what they're already motivated to do, which is to make sure that their investments are secured and that the people who work to carry out their businesses are safe."
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B. PUBLIC FUNDING UNDERMINES THE BENEFITS OF PRIVATE FUNDING OF INFRASTRUCTURE. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy Studies, Cato Institute), FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, 2012 from www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/federal-infrastructure- investment. A recent Brookings Institution study describes some of the advantages of PPPs. It notes that the usual process for government infrastructure investment decouples the initial construction from the later management, which results in contractors having few incentives to build projects that will minimize operation and maintenance costs. PPP solves this problem because the same company will both build and operate projects. "Many advantages of PPP stem from the fact that they bundle construction, operations, and maintenance in a single contract. This provides incentives to minimize life-cycle costs which are typically not present when the project is publicly provided," notes the Brookings' study. III. PRIVATIZED INFRASTRUCTURE IS CRUCIAL TO AMERICAN COMPETITIVENESS. A. PRIVATIZATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE IS CRUCIAL TO BOLSTER AMERICA’S COMPETITIVENESS. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy Studies, Cato Institute), FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, 2012 from www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/federal-infrastructure- investment. This committee's description of today's hearing noted: "Transportation infrastructure is especially important to the manufacturing sector, which relies on various modes of transportation to obtain raw materials and to transport end products to the marketplace." That is certainly true, and I think transportation privatization is part of the answer to improve America's competitiveness in global markets. For example, nearly all airports and seaports in this country are owned by governments, but many airports and seaports abroad have been partly or fully privatized. The World Economic Forum rates America's seaports only 23rd in the world, but the first- and third-best seaports in the world, according to the WEF, are private — Singapore and Hong Kong. B. STRONG U.S. COMPETIVENESS IS CRITICAL TO STAVE OFF THE MOVE IN CONGRESS TO PRESSURE CHINA OVER ITS CURRENCY. Xiong Qu, (Staff, CCTV International), U.S. SHOULD FOCUS ON ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS, April 30, 2008. Retrieved Apr. 25, 2012 from http://www.cctv.com/english/20080430/104202.shtml. AmCham released the White Paper in Beijing, saying the U.S. should focus on enhancing its overall economic competitiveness. It said the U.S. should not press for the yuan's appreciation to reduce its trade deficit with China, since the value of the yuan is not the fundamental cause of the deficit. Harley Seyedin, Chairman of AmCham China said "RMB's going up certainly reduce the exports, but that not really impact so much." Many American companies are looking to expand in China, thanks to its lucrative and opening markets. The White Paper also said the two countries should work to have more instances of defending and preserving the openness of the trade relationship than instances of dispute. The paper said an open U.S. and an open China will lead to sustained benefits for the companies and citizens of both countries. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 59
C. PRESSURE ON CHINA’S CURRENCY RISKS AN OUTRIGHT WAR WITH CHINA. Clif Droke, (Editor, Momentum Strategies Report), AMERICA AND THE NEXT MAJOR WAR, March 29, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 from www.greenfaucet.com/technical-analysis/america-and-the-next-major-war/79314. In the current phase of relative peace and stability we now enjoy, many are questioning when the next major war may occur and speculation is rampant as to major participants involved. Our concern here is strictly of a financial nature, however, and a discussion of the geopolitical and military variables involved in the escalation of war is beyond the scope of this commentary. But what we can divine from financial history is that "hot" wars in a military sense often emerge from trade wars. As we shall see, the elements for what could prove to be a trade war of epic proportions are already in place and the key figures are easily identifiable. Last Wednesday the lead headline in the Wall Street Journal stated, "Business Sours on China." It seems, according to WSJ, that Beijing is "reassessing China's long-standing emphasis on opening its economy to foreign business....and tilting toward promoting dominant state companies." Then there is Internet search giant Google's threat to pull out of China over concerns of censorship of its Internet search results in that country. The trouble started a few weeks ago Google announced that it no longer supports China's censoring of searches that take place on the Google platform. China has defended its extensive censorship after Google threatened to withdraw from the country. Additionally, the Obama Administration announced that it backs Google's decision to protest China's censorship efforts. In a Reuters report, Obama responded to a question as to whether the issue would cloud U.S.-China relations by saying that the human rights would not be "carved out" for certain countries. This marks at least the second time this year that the White House has taken a stand against China (the first conflict occurring over tire imports). Adding yet further fuel to the controversy, the U.S. Treasury Department is expected to issue a report in April that may formally label China as a "currency manipulator," according to the latest issue of Barron's. This would do nothing to ease tensions between the two nations and would probably lead one step closer to a trade war between China and the U.S. IV. PRIVATIZED INFRASTRUCTURE SOLVES BETTER THAN PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE. A. PRIVATE SECTOR IS BEST FOR INFRASTRUCTURE: THREE REASONS. Jena Baker McNeill, (Policy Analyst, Heritage Foundation), BUILDING INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCY: PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT IN HOMELAND SECURITY, September 23, 2008. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 from http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/09/building-infrastructure-resiliency-private-sector-investment- in-homeland-security. The private sector is the most appropriate actor to improve infrastructure because of its creativity, flexibility, and economic savvy. Congress and the new Administration must recognize that this type of investment is simply not Washington's responsibility. The Founders were keenly aware that the government is not always the best vehicle for change. Citizens and lawmakers alike must learn to respect this constitutional tradition again. B. PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE IS TWICE AS COST EFFICIENT AS GOVERNMENTAL INFRASTRUCTURE. Steve H. Hanke, (Prof., Economics, Johns Hopkins University), IN PRAISE OF PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE, 2008. Retrieved Apr. 12, 2012 from http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/praise-private-infrastructure. A critical question: Should infrastructure be provided by the private or public sector? Adam Smith answered this question in the Wealth of Nations (1776). He concluded as follows: "No two characters seem more inconsistent than those of trader and sovereign," since people are more wasteful with the wealth of others than with their own. He thought public ownership and administration were negligent and wasteful because public employees do not have a direct interest in the commercial outcome of their actions. Comparative cost analyses of private versus public provision of goods and services give support to the conclusion that private firms are more cost-effective than public firms. Considerable evidence suggests that the public cost incurred in providing a given quantity and quality of output is about twice as great as private provision. This result occurs with such frequency that it has given rise to a rule-of-thumb: "the bureaucratic rule of two." SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 60
FEDERALISM DISADVANTAGE The thesis of this disadvantage is that federal spending on infrastructure undermines state innovations in the realm of infrastructure projects. The state governments are currently innovating in the transportation realm with solutions adequate for their own geographic needs. However, federal investment imposes a one-size fits all approach on the states, destroying their ability to develop the solutions that best fit their own needs. In addition, by undermining state’s rights, the plan risks upsetting the federalism model that leads to peace, liberty, and freedom. I. FEDERAL TRANSPORTATION POLICY EMBRACES FEDERALISM NOW. A. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE CURRENTLY EMBODIES THE PRINCIPLES OF FEDERALISM. Howard Shatz, (Analyst, RAND Corporation), HIGHWAY INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE ECONOMY: IMPLICATIONS FOR FEDERAL POLICY, 2011, xii. U.S. transportation programs are in many ways the quintessential embodiment of federalism. Although a partnership between different levels of government is well established in practical terms, it has never been carefully described in federal legislation nor formally designated as a "national transportation policy." B. STATES CURRENTLY CONTROL MOST INFRASTRUCTURE POLICIES. Howard Shatz, (Analyst, RAND Corporation), HIGHWAY INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE ECONOMY: IMPLICATIONS FOR FEDERAL POLICY, 2011, xii-xiii. The intellectual model of highway programs in particular is that the states own and operate the major roads— even the interstates. The federal government "aids" the states through grants or loan subsidies, but in principle, as a matter of state sovereignty, the states plan and decide where the highways will go and then operate and manage them. The result is that the federal government recognizes the overall highway program as a state program and gives the states money if they meet design or safety standards and follow certain planning procedures.
II. FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS UNDERMINE FEDERALISM. A. FEDERAL INTERVENTION IN INFRASTRUCTURE CRUSHES STATE INNOVATION. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy Studies, Cato Institute), FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, 2012 from www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/federal-infrastructure- investment. Perhaps the biggest problem with federal involvement in infrastructure is that when Washington makes mistakes it replicates those mistakes across the nation. Federal efforts to build massive public housing projects in dozens of cities during the 20th century had very negative economic and social effects. Or consider the distortions caused by current federal subsidies for urban light-rail systems. These subsidies bias cities across the country to opt for light rail, yet rail systems are generally less efficient and flexible than bus systems, and they saddle cities with higher operating and maintenance costs down the road. When the federal government subsidizes certain types of infrastructure, the states want to grab a share of the funding and they often don't worry about long-term efficiency. High-speed rail is a rare example where some states are rejecting the "free" dollars from Washington because the economics of high-speed rail seem to be so poor. The Obama administration is trying to impose its rail vision on the nation, but the escalating costs of California's system will hopefully warn other states not to go down that path. B. INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING IS PROPERLY A STATE ISSUE. David Levinson (staff writer) “A New Transportation Federalism,” Feb. 6, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 14, 2012 at http://blog.lib.umn.edu/levin031/transportationist/2012/02/a-new-transportation-federalis.html What is missing from these the advocate's discussions is the rationale for why what would no longer be funded is a federal rather than local responsibility. I understand the convenience of keeping a federal gas tax rather than re- debating the issue in 50 state legislatures. I also understand the need for an interstate transportation system, and the imperfection of state gas taxes in capturing revenue from non-residents, especially in small states. What I don't get is why that justifies federal funding of local transportation services that are used almost entirely by within-state residents. If Minnesota wants more bike paths, that is a great thing, Minnesota should pay for it. (We can then discuss what level of state or local government should actually be responsible). No reason to bring Washington into it. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 61
C. FEDERAL FUNDING COMES WITH STRINGS ATTACHED THAT UNDERMINE STATE INNOVATIONS. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy Studies, Cato Institute), FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, 2012 from www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/federal-infrastructure- investment. Another problem is that federal infrastructure spending comes with piles of regulations. Davis-Bacon rules and other federal regulations raise the cost of building infrastructure. Regulations also impose one-size-fits-all solutions on the states, even though the states have diverse needs. The former 55-mph speed limit, which used to be tied to federal highway funds, is a good example. Today, federal highway funds come with requirements for the states to spend money on activities such as bicycle paths, which state policymakers may think are extraneous. D. FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE POLICIES REPLICATE MISTAKES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NATION. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy, Cato Institute), INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS TO FIX THE ECONOMY? DON'T BANK ON IT, Oct 21, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 14, 2012 from http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/ infrastructure-projects-fix-economy-dont-bank-it. When the federal government "thinks big," it often makes big mistakes. And when Washington follows bad policies, such as destroying wetlands or overbuilding dams, it replicates the mistakes across the nation. Today, for instance, Reclamation's huge underpricing of irrigation water is contributing to a water crisis across much of the West. III. STATE INNOVATIONS BEST SOLVE FOR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE PROBLEMS. A. STATE INFRASTRUCUTRE SPENDING ALLOWS STATES TO BE LABORATORIES OF DEMOCRACY. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy Studies, Cato Institute), FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, 2012 from www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/federal-infrastructure- investment. The U.S. economy needs infrastructure, but state and local governments and the private sector are generally the best places to fund and manage it. The states should be the "laboratories of democracy" for infrastructure, and they should be able to innovate freely with new ways of financing and managing their roads, bridges, airports, seaports, and other facilities. B. STATES KNOW BETTER THAN WASHINGTON WHAT THEIR TRANSPORTATION NEEDS ARE. Robert Jay Dilger, (Senior Specialist in American National Government, Congressional Research Service), FEDERALISM ISSUES IN SURFACE TRANSPORTATION POLICY: PAST AND PRESENT, Jan. 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr 14, 2012 from http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40431.pdf. At a House subcommittee hearing on ISTEA’s reauthorization in 1997, Senator Mack defended his devolution proposal, arguing that “the simple fact is that states now have the technical capability to build their own roads and, frankly, they know better than Washington what their transportation needs are. IV. A HEALTHY SYSTEM OF FEDERALISM SOLVES FOR LIBERTY AND PEACE WORLDWIDE. A. OTHER NATIONS MODEL U.S. FEDERALISM DECISIONS. Donald L. Horowitz, 2007 (Professor of Law and Political Science, Duke University), DRAKE LAW REVIEW, Summer, 55 Drake L. Rev. 953. Online. Lexis. Accessed April 28, 2008. Federalism is among those institutions. Indeed, the adoption of a federal regime in this country in 1787 was followed very closely in Europe and Latin America. In both, federal institutions were seen to provide a democratic solution to the problem of uniting diverse territories in a single regime. Switzerland, Germany, Argentina, Venezuela, Mexico, and Brazil were among the states that adopted federalism for this purpose, and their decisions were explicitly based on the American example. Issues of constitutional design, at long last revived in the United States by Professor Levinson's book, thrive outside the United States. Since the Third Wave of Democratization began in Portugal in 1974, dozens and dozens of constitutions have been written and rewritten. Some have taken their inspiration from the United States and adopted fixed-term presidencies, bicameral legislatures, and upper houses with equal numbers of representatives from each federal unit; others have been more eclectic in their design. Whatever the design, outside of the United States, the configuration of institutions is not regarded as an unchangeable feature of the landscape but an arena of purposive activity in which the aim is to engineer institutions that can cope in a democratic way with the problems particular societies present. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 62
B. FEDERALISM IS KEY TO PEACE IN MULTIPLE AREAS AROUND THE GLOBE. Daniel J. Elazar, (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) “Federalism and Peace-making,” Nov. 23, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 at http://www.jcpa.org/dje/articles/fed-peace.htm. This conference has focused on many examples including the most outstanding, e.g., the European Union, post- Franco Spain, post-apartheid South Africa, Belgium, the United Kingdom, India and earlier classic examples such as Australia and Canada. We have also focused on ongoing efforts including advanced ones such as Russia and those in progress like Cyprus and the Israel-Palestinian conflict. As we all know, this is by no means an exhaustive list. We have made no direct reference to resolution of such North American problems as the status of Puerto Rico or of the various Native American nations. We have not considered the Caribbean Community or the importance of the states in the restoration of democracy in Brazil. We did take a relatively bold step in looking at regional economic arrangements as incipient confederal ones or more with political implications. We did pay serious attention to the revival of confederation as a species of the genus federalism and the utility of confederal arrangements in peace- making efforts and we moved further down the road towards understanding how asymmetrical arrangements can be utilized in federal and confederal systems. V. DEVOLVING FEDERAL AUTHORITY TO THE STATES LEADS TO THE BEST TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE. A. TURNING PROJECTS OVER TO THE STATES LEADS TO BETTER MANAGEMENT. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy, Cato Institute), INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS TO FIX THE ECONOMY? DON'T BANK ON IT, Oct 21, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 14, 2012 from http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/ infrastructure-projects-fix-economy-dont-bank-it. As for Reclamation and the Corps, many of their infrastructure projects would be better managed if they were handed over to the states. Reclamation's massive Central Valley irrigation project, for example, should be transferred to the state of California, which is better positioned to make cost and environmental trade-offs regarding contentious state water issues. Other activities of these two agencies could be privatized, such as hydropower generation and the dredging of seaports. B. A REDUCED FEDERAL ROLE IN INFRASTRUCTURE POLICY BOLSTERS EFFICIENCY. Chris Edwards, (Dir., Tax Policy, Cato Institute), FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, Nov. 21, 2011. Retrieved Feb. 19, 2012 from http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13871. We can spur growth by ensuring that America's infrastructure investment is as efficient as possible. Infrastructure funding should be allocated to the highest-value projects, and those projects should be constructed and maintained in the most cost-effective manner. My testimony will discuss why reducing the federal role in infrastructure will help to increase the efficiency of our investment. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 63
FOREIGN AID TRADE-OFF DISADVANTAGE The thesis of this disadvantage is that federal spending on infrastructure will require cuts in foreign aid spending. Expensive transportation infrastructure projects will require cuts in other areas of the economy, and few areas are as tempting to cut as foreign aid. Because foreign aid is perceived as wasteful, budget hawks will take an axe to the foreign aid budget to provide funding for the plan. Unfortunately, foreign aid is critical to U.S. prestige and influence in the world, a critical stabilizing force. From a moral perspective, foreign aid also staves off poverty and hunger in developing nations. I. FOREIGN AID IS ADEQUATE IN THE PRESENT SYSTEM. A. UNITED STATES FOREIGN AID NARROWLY SURVIVED DEVASTATING CUTS IN THE 2012 BUDGET. Susan Cornwell (staff writer) “U.S. foreign aid escapes slashing cuts in fiscal 2012,” Dec. 19, 2011. Accessed Apr. 18, 2012 at http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/19/us-usa-aid-idUSTRE7BI1KO20111219. The U.S. State Department and foreign aid budget escaped devastating cuts in a fiscal 2012 spending plan that Congress has approved. Aid in war zones helped boost the overall amount the United States was willing to commit to foreign assistance in a time of budget scarcity, despite deep cuts advocated by budget hawks in the Republican- controlled House of Representatives. B. THE 2012 SPENDING PLAN NARROWLY AVOIDED DEEP CUTS TO FOREIGN AID. Susan Cornwell (staff writer) “U.S. foreign aid escapes slashing cuts in fiscal 2012,” Dec. 19, 2011. Accessed Apr. 18, 2012 at http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/19/us-usa-aid-idUSTRE7BI1KO20111219. The 2012 spending plan is a mixed bag, said Liz Schrayer, the executive director of the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition, which advocates for diplomacy and development aid. "In the short term, we are pleased the agreement avoids the deep and disproportionate cuts to these programs from earlier versions of the bill ... However, in the long- run, the cuts to funding for non-war related program is of grave concern given the challenges and turbulence in the world today." John Norris of the Center for American Progress think-tank said the cut to USAID operations was significant, "but it doesn't look like a cut that would grind operations to a halt, bringing messy contingency planning and staff reductions." II. INVESTMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING REQUIRE BUDGETARY TRADE-OFFS. Lachlan Markay (Heritage Foundation Analyst) “Obama vs. the Evidence: Infrastructure Spending Is No Job Creator,” July 11, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at http://blog.heritage.org/2011/07/11/obama-vs-the-evidence- infrastructure-spending-is-no-job-creator/. In a series of studies in 2000, the Department of Transportation used economic modeling to conclude that each billion dollars in infrastructure spending would create 47,576 job-years. That study was used to tout infrastructure spending in the stimulus package, and to justify such spending thereafter. But USDOT’s study considered federal spending in the abstract, and thus failed to account for the hidden costs of extracting money from one part of the economy and spending it elsewhere. The Heritage Foundation’s Ronald Utt explained the flawed logic thusly: In the real world, the additional federal borrowing or taxing needed to provide this additional $1 billion means that $1 billion less is spent or invested elsewhere and that the jobs and products previously employed by that $1 billion thus disappear. Regardless of how the federal government raised the additional $1 billion, it would shift resources from one part of the economy to another, in this case to road building. The only way that $1 billion of new highway spending can create 47,576 new jobs is if the $1 billion appears out of nowhere as if it were manna from heaven…[ellipses in original] III. FOREIGN AID WILL BE TARGETED IN THE TRADE-OFF. A. AMERICA’S BUDGET CRISIS WILL CAUSE LAWMAKERS TO TARGET FOREIGN AID. Steven Lee Myers (staff writer) “With the U.S. budget in crisis, foreign aid is on the chopping block,” Oct. 9, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20111009/NEWS0107/110090310/. WASHINGTON — America’s budget crisis at home is forcing the first significant cuts in overseas aid in nearly two decades, a retrenchment that officials and advocates say reflects the country’s diminishing ability to influence the world. As lawmakers scramble to trim the swelling national debt, both the Republican-controlled House and the Democrat-controlled Senate have proposed slashing financing for the State Department and its related aid agencies at a time of desperate humanitarian crises and uncertain political developments. The proposals have raised the specter of deep cuts in food and medicine for Africa, in relief for disaster-affected places like Pakistan and Japan, in political and economic assistance for the new democracies of the Middle East, and even for the Peace Corps. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 64
IV. FOREIGN AID CUTS WILL DEVASTATE U.S. LEADERSHIP. A. FOREIGN AID CUTS WOULD DIMINISH U.S. POWER AROUND THE GLOBE. Steven Lee Myers (staff writer) “With the U.S. budget in crisis, foreign aid is on the chopping block,” Oct. 9, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20111009/NEWS0107/110090310/. The financial crunch threatens to undermine a foreign policy described as “smart power” by President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, one that emphasizes diplomacy and development as a complement to U.S. military power. It also would begin to reverse the increase in foreign aid that President George W. Bush supported after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, as part of an effort to combat the roots of extremism and anti-American sentiment, especially in the most troubled countries. Given the relatively small foreign aid budget — it accounts for 1 percent of federal spending overall — the effect of the cuts could be disproportional. B. DEEP FOREIGN AID CUTS UNDERMINE U.S. INFLUENCE AROUND THE WORLD. Steven Lee Myers (staff writer) “With the U.S. budget in crisis, foreign aid is on the chopping block,” Oct. 9, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20111009/NEWS0107/110090310/. But Norris warned that cutting too deeply could return the United States to the inward-looking era before the Sept. 11 attacks, after which many people believed that the country had done too little to address the roots of extremism. “We need to be a little less scattershot,” said Norris, who is with the Center for American Progress in Washington. “Every ambassador wants to announce something or preside over a ribbon cutting, but in this environment that is no longer possible.” Jeremy Konyndyk, the director of policy and advocacy for the international aid group Mercy Corps, said a retrenchment in aid could gravely erode not only America’s influence but also its moral standing as a generous nation in times of crises. “The amount of money the U.S. has or doesn’t have doesn’t really rise or fall on the foreign aid budget,” he said in a telephone interview from Nairobi, Kenya, where he was overseeing relief to the famine in the Horn of Africa. “The budget impact is negligible. The impact around the world is enormous.” C. BUDGET HAWKS WILL CUT FOREIGN AID AND UNDERMINE U.S. INFLUENCE AND PRESTIGE. Kevin Clarke (staff writer) “Starved for attention: Why budget cuts shouldn't include nixing foreign aid,” Sept. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at http://www.uscatholic.org/culture/social-justice/2011/08/starved-attention-why- budget-cuts-shouldnt-include-nixing-foreign-aid. Since billions in aid to Israel, Egypt, and “partners” in “overseas contingency operations”—what we used to call the “war on terror”—in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan will apparently remain sacrosanct in the upcoming negotiations, budget hawks will likely target that $30 billion or so in development and relief aid. Considering the trillions that have to be cut, it is worth calculating whether the loss of U.S. influence and prestige—and lives—is really worth the tiny contribution foreign aid cuts could make toward deficit reduction. V. FOREIGN AID CUTS WILL DEVASTATE THE POOR AND HUNGRY. A. FOREIGN AID CUTS WILL DEVASTATE POVERTY REDUCTION INITIATIVES. Kevin Clarke (staff writer) “Starved for attention: Why budget cuts shouldn't include nixing foreign aid,” Sept. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at http://www.uscatholic.org/culture/social-justice/2011/08/starved-attention-why- budget-cuts-shouldnt-include-nixing-foreign-aid. Speaking on behalf of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, Albany, New York’s Bishop Howard Hubbard, chairman of the bishops’ Committee on International Justice and Peace, and Catholic Relief Services President Ken Hackett rejected a recent proposal to cut humanitarian funding floated by House Republicans in July. That plan, they wrote in a letter to Congress, “makes morally unacceptable, even deadly, cuts to poverty-focused humanitarian and development assistance . . . that will undermine integral human development, poverty reduction initiatives, and stability in the world’s poorest countries and communities.” B. POVERTY KILLS MILLIONS OF PEOPLE. Daniel C. Maguire (professor of ethics at Marquette University in Milwaukee) “Population, Poverty and Sustainable Development,” Spring/Summer 1996. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at http://www.sacredchoices.org/population_poverty _sustainable_dev.htm. Poverty is genocidal and the malignant indifference and masked barbarity that underlie upper class virtue are complicit in the quiet slaughter of the poor. Poverty kills with an efficiency that could only be matched by all-out nuclear war. The wars that we have had are pikers in inflicting death compared to poverty. What war could kill 40,000 infants a day and do so with a silent efficiency that allows the polysaturated guilty to sleep comfortably in their beds, consciences fully anesthetized, with no rumble of distant guns to disturb their rest. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 65
C. POVERTY BREEDS TERRORISM. Erin Ratelle (staff writer) “World Poverty Breeds Terrorism,” Jan. 21, 2009. Retrieved Apr 18, 2012 at http://www.sandiego.edu/peacestudies/documents/ipj/wl07article_poverty_ratelle.pdf. Such property inequality explains not only a major part of the conflicts themselves, but the reason for the popularity of terrorist movements. More affluent societies have lower incidences of terrorism, for the simple reason that there is less dissatisfaction with the standard of living. Poverty serves as an isolator, a degrader, and people who feel isolated and degraded are eager to become part of a group, particularly movements that provide an outlet for their socioeconomic frustrations. D. THERE IS A MORAL OBLIGATION TO SOLVE POVERTY AND HUNGER. Claire Andre and Manuel Velasquez, “World Hunger: A Moral Response,” Jan. 18, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at http://www.scu.edu/ethics/publications/iie/v5n1/hunger.html. Many maintain that the citizens of rich nations have a moral obligation to aid poor nations. First, some have argued, all persons have a moral obligation to prevent harm when doing so would not cause comparable harm to themselves. It is clear that suffering and death from starvation are harms. It is also clear that minor financial sacrifices on the part of people of rich nations can prevent massive amounts of suffering and death from starvation. Thus, they conclude, people in rich nations have a moral obligation to aid poor nations. Every week more than a quarter of a million children die from malnutrition and illness. Many of these deaths are preventable. For example, the diarrhea disease and respiratory infections that claim the lives of 16,000 children every day could be prevented by 10 cent packets of oral rehydration salts or by antibiotics usually costing under a dollar. The aid needed to prevent the great majority of child illness and death due to malnutrition in the next decade is equal to the amount of money spent in the U.S. to advertise cigarettes. It is well within the capacity of peoples of rich nations as collectives or as individuals to prevent these avoidable deaths and to reduce this misery without sacrificing anything of comparable significance. Personalizing the argument, Peter Singer, a contemporary philosopher, writes: Just how much we will think ourselves obliged to give up will depend on what we consider to be of comparable moral significance to the poverty we could prevent: color television, stylish clothes, expensive dinners, a sophisticated stereo system, overseas holidays, a (second ?) car, a larger house, private schools for our children . . . none of these is likely to be of comparable significance to the reduction of absolute poverty. Giving aid to the poor in other nations may require some inconvenience or some sacrifice of luxury on the part of peoples of rich nations, but to ignore the plight of starving people is as morally reprehensible as failing to save a child drowning in a pool because of the inconvenience of getting one's clothes wet. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 66
RUSSIAN OIL DISADVANTAGE The thesis of this disadvantage is that federal spending for renewable infrastructure would decrease oil prices and devastate the Russian economy. Russia’s economy is currently heavily dependent on oil, and has been reaping windfall profits from the current high price of oil around the globe. However, eliminating the demand for oil from the United States, one of the world’s leading consumers of oil, would cause the bottom to drop out of the oil market, devastating Russia’s economy. Mass instability and the potential for loose Russian nuclear weapons would be the result of the chaos coming from Russia. I. HIGH OIL PRICES ARE CURRENTLY PROMOTING A STRONG RUSSIAN ECONOMY. A. HIGHER OIL PRICES ARE BOLSTERING RUSSIA’S ECONOMY NOW. RT.com, RUSSIAN GROWTH: IMF KNOWS BETTER, Apr. 18, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 from http://rt.com/business/news/imf-forecast-fund-inflation-russia-350/. The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecast for Russia based on higher oil prices. The figures are looking even better than the prospects portrayed by Russia's Economics Ministry. In its World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday, the IMF says Russia's economy is set to grow 4% this year, raising its January forecast of a 3.3% growth as the world’s biggest energy exporter benefits from higher prices for commodities. According to the fund the renewed tension in the Middle East may lead to a further rise in oil prices, which in turn would ease pressure on Russian and other former Soviet energy producers. B. HIGH OIL PRICES ARE A BOON TO THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY. Clifford Krauss, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Apr. 16, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 from http://www.nytimes. com/2012/04/17/business/energy-environment/exxon-and-russian-oil-company-agree-to-joint-projects.html By creating what he called “globally competitive conditions,” Mr. Putin was looking to attract investment in Russian oil and gas projects from Exxon Mobil, Total of France and Statoil of Norway to ensure the continued production of roughly 10 million barrels of oil a day as domestic consumption climbed. High oil prices have been a boon to the Russian economy. C. RUSSIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH WILL BE STRONG THIS YEAR. Alexander Kolyandr, (Staff, Market Watch), IMF RAISES RUSSIA GROWTH FORECAST, Apr. 17, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 from http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-raises-russia-growth-forecast-2012-04-17. In its World Economic Outlook report published Tuesday, the IMF said it now expects Russia's economy to grow 4% this year, having forecast in January it would grow 3.3%. It also said it expects the economy to grow 3.9% in 2013, having forecast in December growth of 3.5%. II. FEDERAL FUNDING FOR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE DECREASES OIL PRICES. A. NEW FUNDING FOR LOW-OIL TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE WILL DECREASE PROFITS FOR OIL EXPORTING NATIONS. Deron Lovaas (National Resources Defense Council), THE ROAD TO RECOVERY, Apr. 1, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 from http://www.nrdc.org/energy/transportation/files/roadtorecovery.pdf. Transportation accounts for about one-third of America’s carbon pollution and 70 percent of the nation’s oil consumption. Our cars, trucks, planes, and trains guzzle an astonishing 204 billion gallons of oil per year. Our oil habit exposes us to a global energy marketplace where oil prices seem to be inexorably climbing upwards, sapping our economy by transferring more and more of our hard-earned dollars to unfriendly but oil-rich nations. Our dependence on oil also leaves American consumers vulnerable to short-term price volatility, such as in 2008 when the price of gasoline climbed above 4 dollars per gallon. We can and must reduce the oil-intensity of transportation and deliver more mobility choices to commuters and consumers, so that we keep more dollars circulating in our economy and can take advantage of options other than driving when gas prices spike. Specifically, we must establish a national oil-savings objective for our federal transportation program and require similar objectives for states and regions. The federal government should provide financial assistance to meet these objectives by doubling annual funding for public transportation and establishing new, merit-based, competitive loan and grant programs. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 67
B. MOVE TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY WOULD COLLAPSE THE ECONOMIES OF OIL-EXPORTING NATIONS. John Tabak, (Science Journalist), NATURAL GAS AND HYDROGEN, 2009, 154-155. If hydrogen were to become the principal transportation fuel, oil-exporting nations would experience an economic disaster because most oil is used in the transportation sector. Eliminate the demand for gasoline and diesel fuel, and there would be little left of the oil business, one of the world's largest businesses. This would have a profound impact on the economies of many nations, but oil-exporting nations, most of which have no other significant source of income, would face economic collapse. C. HIGH SPEED RAIL WOULD DECREASE OIL PRICES. American Association of State and Highway Transportation Officials. (2009). INTERCITY PASSENGER RAIL, 2009, 3. "Everyone knows," said Vice President Joe Biden, "railways are the best way to connect communities to each other, and as a daily rail commuter for over 35 years, this announcement is near and dear to my heart. Investing in a high-speed rail system will lower our dependence on foreign oil and the bill for a tank of gas; loosen the congestion suffocating our highways and skyways; and significantly reduce the damage we do to our planet." D. U.S. OIL CONSUMPTION IS KEY—THE UNITED STATES IS THE LARGEST OIL IMPORTER IN THE WORLD. Arab American Giving.org, THE IMPORTANCE OF ARAB OIL IN THE AMERICAN ECONOMY, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 from http://www.arabamericangiving.org/the-importance-of-arab-oil-in-the-american- economy.php The American economy is very dependent on oil and the United States is one of the most important importers of oil in the world. The key role that that United States play in the oil industry, as the largest importer of oil, is reflected in the fact that oil is always priced in U.S. dollars. The population of the United States account for about 5 percent of the population of the world, but it consumes about 25 percent of the oil that is used in the world every year. The daily rate of oil consumption per person in the United States is about double the rate of consumption in the European Union. The U.S. is the largest consumer of oil in the world, and it is also the world's largest importer of oil. The United States import about two thirds of the oil that it uses. E. THE WORLD OIL MARKET IS INTEGRATED—PRICES IN ONE COUNTRY MOVE TOGETHER WITH OTHER COUNTRIES. Stephen P.A. Brown, (Visiting Fellow, Resources for the Future), REASSESSING THE OIL SECURITY PREMIUM, Feb. 2010. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 from http://www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-10-05.pdf. Domestic and imported oil are nearly indistinguishable to the consumer. In fact, fungibility and relatively low transportation costs have led to an integrated world oil market in which, as Nordhaus explains, prices move together. At the same time, domestic oil production is stable, whereas production outside the United States contains unstable elements. Consequently, policymakers may have a reason to differentiate between domestic and imported oil, and have some ability to do so via legislation or regulation even if consumers cannot.
III. DECLINING OIL PRICES WILL DEVASTATE THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY. A. OIL PRICE DECLINES LEAD TO A SEVERE RECESSION IN RUSSIA. Alex Steffler, (Staff), WHAT RUSSIAN PAPERS SAY, March 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 from http://en.ria.ru/papers/20120327/172420288.html. The worst-case scenario, based on oil at $60, will lead to a severe recession. In that case Russia’s economy will contract by 5.3 percent of GDP in 2012. Although it may recover almost as rapidly as in the previous scenario, the federal budget deficit will surge to 8.2 percent this year and then gradually decrease to 5.9 percent in 2015, while the government debt will grow proportionately by 3.5 percent, 9.4 percent and 13.4 percent of GDP in 2012-2014. Russians’ incomes will shrink 20 percent, and will not regain their previous level even by 2014. The government will find it more difficult to alleviate the repercussions of this new crisis than in 2008: its spending obligations have grown while its safety cushion is smaller this time around. The Reserve Fund contained $62.4 billion as of March 1, 2012, down from $142.6 billion in September 2008. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 68
B. WHERE OIL GOES, RUSSIA’S ECONOMY GOES WITH IT. Kenneth Rapoza, (Staff), FORBES, Apr 3, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at www.forbes.com/sites/kenra poza/2012/04/03/oil-a-problem-for-russian-economy-official-says/ As an investment story, Russia is known as an oil and gas play. Like the country or not, where oil goes, Russia’s economy will go right along with it. That’s great when Brent crude and its accompanying cheaper oil, Urals, is well over $80 a barrel. High oil prices is helping finance the new skyline of Moscow. Across from the Moscow River, near where Stalin built his great architectural works in honor of the Russian peoples’ success in World War II, are shiny silver and gold skyscrapers with Sberbank and VTB Capital logos on them. Moscow wants to be a mini-Frankfurt. Better yet, bigger than Frankfurt. It wants to be one of the biggest financial markets in the emerging world. Brazil and China have it beat. Russia’s one trick pony economy is why. C. A FALL IN OIL PRICES WILL DAMAGE THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY. Alex Steffler, (Staff), WHAT RUSSIAN PAPERS SAY, March 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 from http://en.ria.ru/papers/20120327/172420288.html. A sustained fall in the oil price could lead to a surge in deficit and government debt as well as a cut in Russia’s sovereign rating by up to three notches, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said in a report. The report, Hooked on Oil: Russia’s Vulnerability to Oil Prices, examines Russia’s key economic indicators in two stress scenarios: one where the oil price drops to an annual average of $80 per barrel over a sustained period, and the other where the oil price drops to $60. Although the agency considers the likelihood of these two scenarios materializing over the next two years to be less than 30 percent, a fall in oil prices will damage the Russian economy and living standards in any case. D. EVEN MODERATE CHANGES IN OIL PRICES COULD UNDERMINE RUSSIA’S ECONOMY. RT.com, OIL PRICES: THE MAKE OR BREAK OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY: WORLD BANK, Apr. 3, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 from http://rt.com/business/news/world-bank-report-russia-543/. World Bank also warns against increasing reliance on resources exports as oil and gas revenues grew to 10.4% of GDP from 7.6% in 2009. “Even a moderate correction in the oil prices could reverse improvements on the revenue side achieved in 2011,” experts say. IV. RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DECLINE CAUSES NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION AND RISKS A NUCLEAR WAR. Patrick F. Speice, (Staff), WILLIAM AND MARY LAW REVIEW, Feb. 1, 2006. Retrieved January 27, 2008 from Lexis. The end of the Cold War eliminated the rationale for maintaining a large military-industrial complex in Russia, and the nuclear cities were closed. This resulted in at least 35,000 nuclear scientists becoming unemployed in an economy that was collapsing. Although the economy has stabilized somewhat, there are still at least 20,000 former scientists who are unemployed or underpaid and who are too young to retire, raising the chilling prospect that these scientists will be tempted to sell their nuclear knowledge, or steal nuclear material to sell, to states or terrorist organizations with nuclear ambitions. The potential consequences of the unchecked spread of nuclear knowledge and material to terrorist groups that seek to cause mass destruction in the United States are truly horrifying. A terrorist attack with a nuclear weapon would be devastating in terms of immediate human and economic losses. Moreover, there would be immense political pressure in the United States to discover the perpetrators and retaliate with nuclear weapons, massively increasing the number of casualties and potentially triggering a full-scale nuclear conflict. In addition to the threat posed by terrorists, leakage of nuclear knowledge and material from Russia will reduce the barriers that states with nuclear ambitions face and may trigger widespread proliferation ofnuclear weapons. This proliferation will increase the risk of nuclear attacks against the United States or its allies by hostile states, as well as increase the likelihood that regional conflicts will draw in the United States and escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 69
DEFICIT DISADVANTAGE The thesis of this disadvantage is that federal spending for transportation infrastructure will only add to the nation’s deficit, undermining the U.S. economy. While the U.S. recovery is slowly gaining ground and deficit reduction measures are beginning to come into place, the affirmative plan reverses such efforts by spending money on an expense new transportation infrastructure project that will only add to the deficit. High U.S. deficits risk undermining the recovery, threatening the U.S. and global economy. I. DEFICIT REDUCTION INITIATIVES ARE COMING INTO PLACE NOW. A. CURRENT POLICIES WILL CAUSE THE DEFICIT TO GO DOWN NOW. Ezra Klein, (Staff), WASHINGTON POST, Apr. 6, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 from www.washingtonpost.com/ business/economy/the-budget-deficit-is-the-least-of-my-worries/2012/04/06/gIQAwXAa0S_story.html. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke calls the end of 2012 “a fiscal cliff.” The George W. Bush tax cuts are set to expire. The $1.2 trillion spending sequester, enforcing cuts in the defense and domestic budgets, is set to go off. Various stimulus measures — including the payroll tax cut — are scheduled to end. “Taken together,” writes the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “these policies would reduce ten-year deficits by over $6.8 trillion relative to realistic current policy projections — enough to put the debt on a sharp downward path.” B. DEFICIT DEALS WILL STABILIZE U.S. FINANCES IN THE PRESENT SYSTEM. Ezra Klein (Staff), WASHINGTON POST, Apr. 6, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 from www.washington post.com/business/economy/the-budget-deficit-is-the-least-of-my-worries/2012/04/06/gIQAwXAa0S_story.html. Some of those mechanisms have already proved their effectiveness. The 2010 debt-ceiling debate led to the Simpson-Bowles commission. The 2011 government-shutdown debate led to a small deficit-reduction package — the participants estimated its savings at $37 billion over 10 years. The 2011 debt-ceiling debate, though a disaster for the economy, led to a deficit-reduction plan of $2.1 trillion — about half the size of the Simpson-Bowles plan. These outcomes point the way to deficit deals that might be struck in the next year or two, with the potential to stabilize our finances for the next decade or more. II. THE U.S. ECONOMY AND GLOBAL ECONOMIES WILL RECOVER NOW. A. THE U.S. AND GLOBAL ECONOMIES WILL EXPAND NOW. Associated Press, SUNNIER OUTLOOK FOR WORLD ECONOMY, Apr. 17, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 from http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/18/business/global/imf-raises-global-forecast-for-growth.html. The International Monetary Fund is more optimistic about the global economy after seeing faster growth in the United States and a coordinated effort in Europe to address its debt crisis. The monetary fund said Tuesday that the American economy should expand 2.1 percent this year. Europe will most likely shrink 0.3 percent and the world economy should grow 3.5 percent. All three of the I.M.F.’s estimates are slightly better than its January forecasts. B. THE U.S. ECONOMY IS GAINING MOMENTUM NOW. CNBC.com, WORLD ECONOMY FRAGILE, FACES "UNEASY CALM": IMF, Apr. 17, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 from http://www.cnbc.com/id/47072866. The United States, meanwhile, is gradually gaining momentum while China and other emerging economies appear on track for gradual slowdowns without crashing, the IMF said. III. INCREASING INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE WILL EXPLODE THE DEFICIT. A. INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING LEADS TO HIGHER DEFICITS. Ronald Utt, (Sr. Fellow, Heritage Foundation), INFRASTRUCTURE STIMULUS SPENDING: PANDERING TO ORGANIZED LABOR, Sep. 8, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 from http://www.heritage.org/research/ reports/2010/09/infrastructure-stimulus-spending-pandering-to-organized-labor. As is apparent from President Obama’s declining approval ratings, the majority of Americans have lost confidence in the ability of Washington’s leadership to get the economy moving again. More to the point, many now recognize that the $814 billion in spending authorized by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009—which included $48.1 billion for transportation infrastructure—did little to spur the recovery and nothing to create new jobs. Instead, what legacy ARRA will leave is future federal budgets with unprecedentedly large, and potentially destabilizing, deficits. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 70
B. AN INFRASTRUCTURE BANK WOULD COST TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS. Ronald Utt (Sr. Fellow, Heritage Foundation), INFRASTRUCTURE 'CRISIS' IS ABOUT SOCIALISM, Dec. 13, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 from http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2011/12/infrastructure-crisis-is- about-socialism. Sen. John Kerry's bill to create a federal infrastructure bank cites the American Society of Civil Engineers' estimate that $2.2 trillion in infrastructure spending is needed over the next five years to bring us up to an "adequate" condition. At $400 billion per year, the engineers would have us spend on infrastructure about what we spend each year on all of the federal, nonsecurity, discretionary programs — an amount equal to 20 percent of all federal tax collections in FY 2011. IV. INCREASED DEFICITS RISK AN ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE. William G. Gale, (Chair in Federal Economic Policy, Brookings Institution,) A VALUE-ADDED TAX FOR THE UNITED STATES: PART OF THE SOLUTION, July 2010. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 from http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2010/0721_vat_for_us_gale/0721_vat_for_us_gale.pdf. The efficiency and growth effects due to an add-on VAT would include: losses from the increased distortion of work/leisure choices; the substantial gains noted above from the one-time tax on existing wealth and substantial gains from deficit reduction. While short-term fiscal stimulus can boost an otherwise slack economy, as it has over the past year and a half, large and persistent deficits will have deleterious effects that can materialize gradually or suddenly. The sudden scenario has been emphasized in the past, under considerably more sanguine fiscal conditions than exist today, and has been highlighted recently by Burman et al. Under this scenario, investors’ fears about future deficits can reach a tipping point and trigger a financial crisis with potentially calamitous effects. Some analysts cite this potential sudden impact as the most important reason to avoid substantial ongoing budget deficits. But even in the absence of a crisis, sustained deficits have deleterious effects, as they translate into lower national savings, higher interest rates, and increased indebtedness to foreign investors, all of which serve to reduce future national income. Gale and Orszag estimate that a 1 percent of GDP increase in the deficit will raise interest rates by 25 to 35 basis points and reduce national saving by 0.5 to 0.8 percentage points of GDP. Engen and Hubbard obtain similar results with respect to interest rates. Thus, relative to a balanced budget, a deficit equal to 6 percent of GDP would raise interest rates by at least 150 basis points and reduce the national saving rate by at least 3 percent of GDP. The IMF (2010) estimates that, in advanced economies, an increase of 10 percentage points in the initial debt/GDP ratio reduces future GDP growth rates by 0.15 percentage points. Hence, the projected increase in the debt/GDP ratio from about 40 percent earlier in the decade to 90 percent by 2020 would be expected to reduce the growth rate by a whopping 0.75 percentage points. By cutting deficits, the VAT would help spur economic growth. V. THE U.S. ECONOMY IS KEY TO THE WORLD ECONOMY. Kevin Hall, 2010. (Staff), MIAMI HERALD, April 30, 2010. Retrieved May 1, 2010 from http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/04/30/1606734/us-economy-grew-briskly-in-first.html. If sustained, the upturn in U.S. consumption would be good news for the whole world, since the United States remains the key global economic engine. "What was particularly encouraging about today's GDP numbers is that U.S. consumption appears to be on a strong recovery path," said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian Economic Research for the global Hong Kong bank HSBC. Friday's GDP numbers were in line with a revised forecast from the International Monetary Fund, which predicted earlier in April that the world's economy would grow at a rate above 4 percent this year, significantly better than its initial 1.9 percent forecast. VI. A STRONG ECONOMY PREVENTS A DEPRESSION AND NUCLEAR WAR. Norman Ornstein, (Fellow, American Enterprise Institute), DEFICIT PANEL COULD CHANGE ECONOMIC WORLD, Sept. 14, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_28/deficit_panel_could_ change_economic_world-208693-1.html. Denying the president a political victory trumps doing something that may help the economy and create jobs — even when it involves policies that have previously been touted by Republicans. But Portman, and perhaps Reps. Dave Camp (R-Mich.) and Fred Upton (R-Mich.) and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), has to realize that we are now playing not with fire, not just with live ammunition, not even with real grenades, but with nuclear weapons. Failure to act in a strong and bold way could risk a depression that could last for years. The super committee may well have the fate of the world in its hands — and a solution is there for the taking. SECOND NEGATIVE BAYLOR BRIEFS 71
POLITICS DISADVANTAGE The thesis of this disadvantage is that federal spending on infrastructure will require President Obama to push through controversial legislation, undermining his ability to pass other pieces of controversial legislation. In particular, President Obama will need his political clout to pass through the repeal of Jackson-Vanik, a piece of legislation that prevents full free trade with Russia. Failure to remove the amendment will undermine U.S.-Russian relations as well as lock the United States out of the emerging Russian market, hurting the U.S. economy. More than other arguments, the politics disadvantage will require you to update the disadvantage by researching current newspapers and periodicals. I. THE JACKSON-VANIK AMENDMENT WILL BE REPEALED IN THE PRESENT SYSTEM. A. CONGRESS IS LIKELY TO REPEAL JACKSON-VANIK NOW. The Voice of Russia, JACKSON-VANIK BAD FOR U.S., Apr. 12, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_04_12/71450355/. The U.S. Congress is beginning to lean toward the belief that the Jackson-Vanik amendment should be abolished before Russia’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). This was announced on Wednesday, by Edward Verona, the head of the U.S.-Russia Business Council, which represents some of the largest U.S. companies. Verona said that Russia will become a full member of the WTO in August 2012, and if Congress does not abolish the infamous amendment by that time, American companies will not be able to enjoy all the privileges that other can find on the Russian market. B. OBAMA IS PUSHING FOR THE REPEAL OF THE JACKSON-VANIK AMENDMENT NOW. Richard Solash, (Staff), CARDIN EXPECTS 'MACHO' RUSSIAN RESPONSE TO MAGNITSKY BILL, Apr. 19, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at http://www.rferl.org/content/cardin_expects_machi_russian_response_to_ magnitsky_bill/24554079.html. The Obama administration has pushed for Jackson-Vanik's repeal, which imposes trade restrictions, in order to boost U.S. commerce with Russia. II. FEDERAL FUNDING FOR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE IS POLITICALLY CONTROVERSIAL. A. INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS ARE PLAGUED WITH PARTISANSHIP. Mannie Garcia, (Staff, Reuters), HOUSE REPUBLICANS WANT $260 BILLION FOR INFRASTRUCTURE, Jan. 30, 2012. Retrieved Apr 23, 2012 from http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/31/us-usa-congress-infrastructure- idUSTRE80U03Z20120131. While both Republicans and Democrats agree that Congress must lay out a new long-term blueprint for infrastructure improvements, finding the political common ground to do so in legislation has been difficult in a charged partisan climate and with elections looming in November. B. AN INFRASTRUCTURE BANK IS VERY UNPOPULAR WITH CONGRESS. Ronald Utt (Senior Research Fellow at The Heritage Foundation) “Obama’s Peculiar Obsession with Infrastructure Banks Will Not Aid Economic Revival,” August 30, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 14, 2012 at http://www.heritage. org/research/reports/2011/08/using-infrastructure-banks-to-spur-economic-recovery. The President’s ongoing obsession with an infrastructure bank as a source of salvation from the economic crisis at hand is—to be polite about it—a dangerous distraction and a waste of his time. It is also a proposal that has consistently been rejected by bipartisan majorities in the House and Senate transportation and appropriations committees, and for good reason. Based on the ARRA’s dismal and remarkably untimely performance, Obama’s infrastructure bank would likely yield only modest amounts of infrastructure spending by the end of 2017 while having no measurable impact on job growth or economic activity—a prospect woefully at odds with the economic challenges confronting the nation. C. FEDERALLY-FUNDED RAIL HAS LITTLE SUPPORT IN CONGRESS. Lisa Schweitzer, (Prof., Policy, Planning and Development, USC), LOS ANGELES TIMES, July 13, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 from http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/13/opinion/la-oe-schweitzer-infrastructure- 20110713. For politicians like Mica, this opens doors to privatization projects. Last month, he introduced a bill that would put private companies in charge of Amtrak's operations in the Northeast Corridor. Taking that step, he contended, would be the fastest way to get high-speed rail up and running in the U.S. because it's clear that President Obama's federally sponsored rail plan has little support in Congress.
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D. REPUBLICANS FAVOR CUTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING. Pat Garofalo, (Staff, ThinkProgress.org), REPUBLICANS VOW TO SECURE ‘PRIORITY’ INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING THEY VOTED AGAINST, Mar. 14, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 from http://thinkprogress.org/ economy/2011/03/14/173833/senators-bridge-fund/. Of course, Republicans have had no compunctions about first voting against infrastructure money and then taking credit for it back home. In fact, 114 different GOP lawmakers voted against the 2009 Recovery Act, yet took credit for various projects. Overall, the Republican spending bill “cuts funding for transportation infrastructure by 9 percent, slashing $2.7 billion from rail, $675 million from federal transit investments, and nearly $1 billion from highway investments.” III. POLITICAL PARTISANSHIP WILL PREVENT THE REPEAL OF JACKSON-VANIK. A. POLITICAL PARTISANSHIP WILL PREVENT JACKSON-VANIK FROM BEING LIFTED. Dina Gusovsky, (Staff, The Examiner), “Could the U.S. lose big by not tapping into the Russian market?” Apr. 10, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23 2012 at http://www.examiner.com/article/could-the-us-lose-big-by-not-tapping-into-the- russian-market. Several American companies and businesses are concerned about the possibility of losing millions of dollars by not being able to tap into the Russian market if political partisanship prevents them from reaping the benefits of Russia’s impending inclusion into the World Trade Organization. An antiquated Cold War relic of an amendment that some on Capitol Hill seem to be holding onto for dear life may be the main barrier. The Jackson-Vanik Amendment was enacted in 1974 as a response to Soviet Jewish migration from the Soviet Union. It was meant to restrict U.S. trade relations with nations that limited emigration as did the Soviet Union at the time. B. LIFTING JACKSON-VANIK WILL BE POLITICALLY DIFFICULT FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA. Doug Palmer, (Staff, Reuters), U.S. HUNTS FOR EXPORTS IN RUSSIAN AUTO PARTS MARKET, Apr. 21, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 from http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/21/us-usa-russia-autos-idUSBRE 83K0J820120421. Russia's fast-growing auto market is certainly "a great example of why we need to go ahead with terminating Jackson-Vanik and granting PNTR," O'Neill said. That's expected to be difficult because of concerns in Congress about Moscow's record on human rights and its foreign policy, which is often at odds with the United States. IV. LIFTING JACKSON-VANIK IS ESSENTIAL TO U.S.-RUSSIAN RELATIONS. A. LIFTING JACKSON-VANIK IS THE ESSENTIAL ELEMENT IN BOLSTERING U.S.-RUSSIAN RELATIONS. Nikolas K. Gvosdev (Prof., U.S. Naval War College), THE REALIST PRISM: RESETTING THE U.S.-RUSSIA RESET, Feb. 11, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 from http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11441/the- realist-prism-resetting-the-u-s-russia-reset. The fate of the Jackson-Vanik amendment, therefore, is the canary in the coal mine for U.S.-Russia relations. If a successful repeal is negotiated, it bodes well for regenerating the relationship. However, if Obama, like George W. Bush before him, is unable to secure Russia’s graduation, this could end up being a fatal blow to the whole idea of the reset. B. U.S.-RUSSIAN RELATIONS ARE ESSENTIAL TO SOLVE MULTIPLE WORLD PROBLEMS. Jeffrey Tayler, (Staff), MEDVEDEV SPOILS THE PARTY, Nov. 2008. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 from http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/11/medvedev-spoils-the-party/7130/. Like it or not, the United States cannot solve crucial global problems without Russian participation. Russia commands the largest landmass on earth; possesses vast reserves of oil, natural gas, and other natural resources; owns huge stockpiles of weapons and plutonium; and still wields a potent brain trust. Given its influence in Iran and North Korea, to say nothing of its potential as a spoiler of international equilibrium elsewhere, Russia is one country with which the United States would do well to reestablish a strong working relationship—a strategic partnership, even—regardless of its feelings about the current Kremlin government. The need to do so trumps expanding NATO or pursuing “full-spectrum dominance.” Once the world financial crisis passes, we will find ourselves returning to worries about resource depletion, environmental degradation, and global warming – the greatest challenges facing humanity. No country can confront these problems alone. For the United States, Russia may just prove the “indispensable nation” with which to face a volatile future arm in arm.
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C. States are given flexibility now. (98) DEFINITIONS OF TERMS D. Jobs recovery is underway. (99-100) I. TERMS OF THE TOPIC ARE DEFINED. ROAD ECOLOGY A. “United States federal government” is defined. (1-4) B. “Substantially” is defined. AFFIRMATIVE 1. “Substantial” means the “essential” part of something. (5-8) I. PRESERVATION OF SPECIES IS VITAL. 2. “Substantial” means “important.” (9-12) 3. “Substantial” means “not imaginary.” (13) A. There is a legal imperative to preserve species. (101-103) 4. Safe Routes to School “substantially” improves safety. (14) B. There is a moral imperative to preserve species. (104-105) 5. Spending $17 billion will “substantially” improve the condition of II. ROADS HARM WILDLIFE AND HUMAN POPULATIONS. bridges. (15) A. Roads fragment wildlife habitats. (106-109) 6. Public transportation improvements will “substantially” increase U.S. action against global warming. (16) B. Vehicle-wildlife collisions threaten species. (110-111) 7. High-speed rail will “substantially” improve traffic congestion. C. Vehicle-wildlife collisions harm humans. (112) (17) III. CURRENT PROGRAMS FAIL TO PROTECT WILDLIFE. C. “Increase” is defined. (18-22) A. Republicans in Congress are attempting to end “Enhancement” D. “Its” is defined. (23-26) funding – the source now used for wildlife programs. (113) E. “Transportation” is defined. (27) IV. INCREASED INVESTMENT IN ROAD ECOLOGY IS NEEDED. F. “Infrastructure” is defined. A. Wildlife crossings solve. (114-115) 1. Infrastructure is a broad term. (28-31) 2. Includes Safe Routes to School Program. (32) B. Animal detection systems solve. (116) 3. Includes Coast Guard vessels. (33) NEGATIVE 4. Includes inland waterways. (34) 5. Includes a hydrogen refueling system. (35-36) I. STATE PROGRAMS ARE ADEQUATELY ADDRESSING THE 6. Includes anti-terrorism measures. (37) PROBLEM. (117) G. “Transportation infrastructure” is defined as a term. 1. List of items included in transportation infrastructure. (38-42) HIGH SPEED RAIL 2. Transportation infrastructure includes airports. (43-44) 3. NextGen is transportation infrastructure. (45) AFFIRMATIVE D. “Investment” is defined. I. CURRENT FEDERAL SUPPORT FOR HIGH-SPEED RAIL IS 1. Investment refers to something monetary. (46-47) FLAWED. 2. National Infrastructure Bank is designed to make an investment. A. High-speed rail lacks a dedicated funding stream. (118-119) (48) B. Congress is blocking President Obama’s plan for high-speed rail. 3. NextGen is an infrastructure investment. (49-50) (120) C. Passenger rail receives proportionately less funding than other types NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK of transportation infrastructure. (121-125) AFFIRMATIVE II. HIGH-SPEED RAIL BEST PREPARES FOR THE END OF OIL ERA. A. Oil supplies are peaking. (126-141) I. CURRENT FUNDING METHODS FLAWED. B. The peaking of oil supplies will cause serious disruptions. (142-143) A. Federal gas tax is flawed. (51-60) C. Renewable energy sources are capable of producing the electrical B. System of earmarks is flawed. (61-62) energy needed for high-speed rail. C. State and local governments are incapable of funding. (63-64) 1. Geothermal resources are plentiful. (144-147) II. NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK WILL PROMOTE 2. Wind energy can feed the electrical grid. (148-160) COMPETITIVENESS. 3. Solar energy potential is extensive. (161-170) 4. Nuclear reactor energy is available. (171-180) A. Quality of U.S. transportation infrastructure is vitally important. (65- 74) D. Biofuels do not offer promising alternatives to gasoline. (181-200) B. Current decay in transportation infrastructure is problematic. (75-80) E. High-speed rail will save oil. (201-202) C. National Infrastructure Bank will boost the economy. (81-84) III. HIGH-SPEED RAIL HELPS SOLVE GREENHOUSE POLLUTION. III. NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK PROMOTES JOB A. Global warming is happening. GROWTH. 1. Increases in global temperatures prove global warming. (203-208) A. Unemployment is a serious problem. (85) 2. Glaciers are melting around the globe. (209-220) 3. There are many obvious signs of global warming. (221-223) B. Transportation infrastructure promotes job growth. (86) 4. The objections of climate skeptics should be rejected. (224) IV. NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK PROMOTES PRIVATE B. Human release of carbon dioxide is the primary cause of global INVESTMENT. warming. A. Transportation infrastructure investment is inadequate. (87-90) 1. Carbon dioxide is rising at a rapid rate. (225-227) B. National Infrastructure Bank will generate massive investment. (91) 2. Carbon dioxide is the greenhouse gas of greatest concern. (228) 3. The use of fossil fuels is a major cause of carbon dioxide release. V. NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK IMPROVES (229) TRANSPORTATION PLANNING. C. High-speed rail reduces greenhouse gas pollution. (230-239) A. Planning is politicized now. (92-94) IV. HIGH-SPEED RAIL CREATES JOBS. B. National Infrastructure Bank will de-politicize investment. (95) A. Unemployment is a significant problem. (240) NEGATIVE B. High-speed rail programs provide jobs. (241-250) I. PROBLEMS WITH INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING ARE V. HIGH-SPEED RAIL WILL REDUCE TRAFFIC CONGESTION. EXAGGERATED. A. Traffic congestion is a big problem now. (251-252) A. Spending on infrastructure has increased. (96) B. High-speed rail will reduce congestion. (253) B. States do a better job than the federal government in planning. (97)
74 BAYLOR BRIEFS INDEX TO EVIDENCE
VI. HIGH-SPEED RAIL WILL IMPROVE U.S. COMPETITIVENESS. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS A. U.S. passenger rail service is slow now. (254-262) AFFIRMATIVE B. U.S. passenger rail is far behind other nations. (263-275) I. OVER-RELIANCE ON CARS CREATES NUMEROUS PROBLEMS. C. High-speed rail will promote economic competitiveness. (276-278) A. Over-reliance on cars causes congestion. (416-417) VII. HIGH-SPEED RAIL PROJECTS COULD PRODUCTIVELY FOCUS B. Over-reliance on cars causes greenhouse gas emissions. (418-425) ON THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. C. Over-reliance on cars undermines livability. (426-432) A. Federal funds are currently too diluted to make a difference. (279- 282) D. Over-reliance on cars strands persons with disabilities. (433-437) B. High-speed rail could productively focus on the Northeast Corridor. E. Over-reliance on cars disadvantages low-income persons. (438-440) (283-290) F. Cars cause pollution. (441) NEGATIVE G. Over-reliance on cars causes a sedentary, unhealthy lifestyle. (442- 445) I. CONCERN ABOUT OIL DEPLETION IS EXAGGERATED. H. Over-reliance on cars increases accidents, causing injury and death. A. Significant amounts of oil will continue to be available. (291-300) (446-448) B. Renewable energy sources will not supply a significant percentage of II. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION IS INADEQUATELY FUNDED IN U.S. electrical energy needs. THE PRESENT SYSTEM. 1. Wind energy sources cannot and should not expand to meet U.S. electrical energy needs. (301-305) A. Current investment is skewed toward highways. (449-460) 2. Solar energy sources cannot and should not expand to meet U.S. B. Public transportation requires additional funding. (461) electrical energy needs. (306-310) III. FUNDING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION OFFERS MANY 3. Nuclear energy cannot and should not expand to meet U.S. ADVANTAGES. electrical energy needs. (311-321) A. Public transportation can help decrease greenhouse gas emissions. C. Biofuels can productively substitute for any shortages in gasoline and (462-470) diesel supplies. (322) B. Public transportation is cost effective. (471-473) II. CONCERN ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING IS EXAGGERATED. C. Public transportation reduces congestion. (474-481) A. It is not clear that global warming is happening. D. Public transportation provides health benefits. (482-490) 1. Temperatures have stopped their increase. (323-324) 2. If anything, we may be entering a cooling cycle. (325-335) E. Public transportation reduces pollution. (491-492) 3. Ice is not melting. (336-346) F. Public transportation creates jobs. (493-494) B. Carbon dioxide is not a primary cause of global warming. G. Public transportation promotes livability. (495-498) 1. Carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas. (347) H. Public transportation promotes safety. (499-502) 2. Carbon dioxide levels have been higher in Earth’s historic past. I. Public transportation aids the poor by reducing living expenses. (503- (348) 506) 3. Carbon dioxide levels are not the primary cause of global warming. (340-353) J. Public transportation promotes Transit-Oriented Development. (507- 509) 4. Changes in the sun account for periods of warming and cooling. (354) K. Ridership will increase when public transportation is done in a C. The impacts of global warming are exaggerated. quality way. (510-515) 1. Increased carbon dioxide benefits agricultural production. (355- NEGATIVE 356) 2. Warmer temperatures do not cause sea rise. (357-361) I. PROBLEMS WITH AUTOMOTIVE TRANSPORTATION ARE 3. Climate warming does not make storms more severe. (362-364) EXAGGERATED. 4. Climate warming does not cause disease spread. (365) A. Cars are more fuel efficient then ever before. (516-519) 5. Warming is generally beneficial. (366-372) B. Cars provide freedom. (520) III. HIGH-SPEED RAIL FAILS TO OFFER ADVANTAGES OVER II. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION IS ADEQUATELY SUPPORTED IN CURRENT INTERCITY TRANSPORTATION METHODS. THE PRESENT SYSTEM. A. Intercity buses are superior to high-speed rail. (373) A. Mass transit receives more than its share of public funding. (521-522) B. High-speed rail is not an effective replacement for oil use. (374) B. Public transportation ridership will not increase. (523-529) C. High-speed rail is not an effective way to address greenhouse gas emissions. (375) HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION NEXTGEN AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL AFFIRMATIVE AFFIRMATIVE I. HIGHWAY PROBLEMS ARE SIGNIFICANT. A. Traffic congestion is a problem. (530-538) I. NEXTGEN WILL IMPROVE SAFETY. B. Roads are in a serious state of disrepair. (539-545) A. NextGen is explained. (376-380) C. Neglecting maintenance leads to accidents. (546-547) B. NextGen development should be accelerated. (381-385) D. Highway repair should be a federal responsibility. (548-549) C. NextGen will improve air transportation safety. (386-395) E. Neglected maintenance costs more in the long run. (550-551) II. FUNDING FOR NEXTGEN IS INADEQUATE. F. Congestion is on the increase. (552-553) A. NextGen requires a significant amount of funding. (396) II. HIGHWAY PROGRAMS ARE FLAWED. B. Funding levels are inadequate now. (397) A. Earmarks distort allocations. (554-561) NEGATIVE B. Lobbyists skew investment decisions. (562-563) I. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION OF NEXTGEN IS APPROPRIATE. C. The Highway Trust Fund is out of money. (564-568) A. The NextGen transition is underway on schedule. (398-410) D. Allocation formulas for highway spending are inefficient. (569-570) B. The NextGen transition should be slow and careful. (411-415) E. Reliance on the federal gas tax is problematic. (571-575) F. At present, new construction is valued over maintenance. (576-581)
INDEX TO EVIDENCE BAYLOR BRIEFS 75
G. State governments also unwisely fund new construction over C. The threat of nuclear terrorism is exaggerated. (732-770) maintenance. (582-586) PEDESTRIAN WALKWAYS AND BICYCLE III. SOLUTIONS TO HIGHWAY PROBLEMS ARE AVAILABLE. A. Congestion funding systems would be beneficial. (587-597) PATHS B. A National Highway Infrastructure Commission is needed. (598-600) AFFIRMATIVE C. Highway maintenance creates jobs. (601-602) I. OBESITY IS A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM. D. Fix-It-First solutions are best. (603-604) A. Obesity is on the increase. (771-773) NEGATIVE B. Obesity impairs human health. (774) I. STATE DECISION MAKING ABOUT ROADS IS SUPERIOR TO II. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE CONTRIBUTES TO FEDERAL DECISION MAKING. OBESITY. A. States are given wide discretion now. (605) A. Walking and biking infrastructure is lacking. (775) B. Most highway spending originates with state governments. (606) B. A disproportionate number of pedestrians and bikers are involved in accidents. (776) C. The federal Davis-Bacon Act, required whenever federal funds are spent, increases the cost of projects. (607) III. FACILITATING WALKING AND BIKING OFFERS MANY II. PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT INFRASTRUCTURE ARE ADVANTAGES. EXAGGERATED. A. Walking and biking will improve public health. (777) A. Highway deaths are on the decline. (608-611) B. Walking and biking will help the environment. (778) B. Earmarks have been banned for appropriations in the current session C. Walking and biking will promote livable communities. (779) of Congress. (612-615) NEGATIVE INLAND WATERWAYS I. WALKING AND BIKING ARE ADEQUATELY SUPPORTED IN THE PRESENT SYSTEM. AFFIRMATIVE A. State programs support walking and biking. (780) I. INLAND WATERWAYS ARE VITALLY IMPORTANT. B. Private groups promote walking and biking. (781) A. Inland waterways are the most efficient form of transportation. (616- 620) HYDROGEN REFUELING B. Barges have the capacity to carry massive amounts of cargo. (621- 623) AFFIRMATIVE C. Inland waterways are essential to U.S. farmers and agricultural I. OIL DEPLETION IS A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM. exports. (624-633) Note: See also the index section for cards 126-200 for other evidence on D. The inland waterway system is described. (634-638) oil depletion and the unavailability of alternatives. E. Inland waterways are a federal responsibility. (639-644) A. Petroleum supplies will soon peak. (782-785) II. INLAND WATERWAYS ARE NEGLECTED NOW. B. The peaking of petroleum supplies is a serious problem. (786-787) A. Infrastructure on inland waterways has outlived its useful life. (645- C. Biofuels do not offer a desirable alternative fuel for vehicles. (788- 655) 798) B. Current locks are in need of replacement. (656-658) II. GLOBAL WARMING IS A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM. C. Travel delays on inland waterways are significant. (659) Note: See also the index section for cards 203-229 for other evidence on the problem of global warming. NEGATIVE A. The Earth is warming. (799-805) I. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD NOT INCREASE B. The signs of global warming abound. (806-808) FUNDING FOR INLAND WATERWAYS. C. Carbon dioxide is a primary source of global warming. (809) A. Inland waterways are already overly subsidized. (660) D. Global warming is harmful. B. Barge operators should pay for improvements. (661) 1. Global warming hurts agriculture. (810-817) 2. Sea rise threatens millions of people. (818-826) PORT SECURITY 3. Melting glaciers will threaten water supplies in many parts of the world. (827-831) AFFIRMATIVE 4. Global warming threatens the environment. (832-839) I. TERRORISM IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. III. ABSENCE OF A REFUELING INFRASTRUCTURE IS THE A. Terrorists seek weapons of mass destruction. (662-670) BARRIER TO A SHIFT TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY. B. International terrorists may have access to weapons of mass A. Car manufacturers are ready to make hydrogen vehicles. (840-849) destruction. B. Absence of infrastructure prevents the shift. (850) 1. Terrorists may gain access to nuclear weapons. (671-695) IV. A HYDROGEN ECONOMY OFFERS MANY ADVANTAGES. 2. Terrorists may gain access to biological weapons. (696-711) A. Hydrogen is a clean fuel. (851) C. Seaports are vulnerable to terrorist acts. (712) B. Hydrogen will facilitate the shift from oil. (852) D. The impact of a terrorist attack on a U.S. seaport would be significant. (713-720) C. Hydrogen will reduce greenhouse gas pollution. (853-856) II. CURRENT SEAPORT PROTECTION IS INADEQUATE. D. Hydrogen is a safe fuel. (857-865) A. A small percentage of incoming cargo is scanned. (721-724) E. Electrical energy necessary for production of hydrogen can be generated from renewable sources. NEGATIVE 1. Wind resources are abundantly available. (866-889) 2. Solar resources are abundantly available. (890-904) I. THE THREAT FROM INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IS 3. Nuclear electrical energy is available and desirable. (905-911) EXAGGERATED. A. The threat of a chemical weapon attack is exaggerated. (725-726) NEGATIVE B. The threat of a biological weapon attack is exaggerated. (727-731) I. OIL DEPLETION IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM.
76 BAYLOR BRIEFS INDEX TO EVIDENCE
Note: See also the index section for cards 291-322 for other answers to C. Private sector involvement is key to infrastructure resiliency. (1015) oil depletion and the availability of alternatives. D. Privatization is key to infrastructure resiliency. (1016) A. Petroleum supplies are not depleted. (912-927) E. Infrastructure resiliency is key to the economy. (1017) B. Natural gas can extend the life of fossil fuels. F. A terrorist attack on weak infrastructure would devastate the 1. Natural gas can be used to power standard engines. (928) economy. (1018) 2. Supplies of natural gas are plentiful. (929-946) V. PRIVATIZATION WILL SOLVE THE ENVIRONMENT. II. GLOBAL WARMING IS A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM. A. The Endangered Species Act proves—the private sector is better than Note: See also the index section for cards 3213-372 for other evidence the federal government at managing environmental issues. (1019) answering global warming. B. Private infrastructure will move to environmentally friendly A. The Earth is more likely cooling than warming. (947-952) solutions. (1020) B. The disclosure of the East Anglia Climate Research Emails demonstrates that climate scientists are engaged in alarmism. (953- ANSWERS TO THE PRIVATIZATION DISADVANTAGE 964) I. U.S. IS NOT PRIVATIZING INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING NOW. C. Glaciers are not melting. (965-971) (1021) D. Climate models are flawed. (972-977) II. PRIVATIZED INFRASTRUCTURE FAILS. (1022) E. Claims of a consensus in favor of global warming are false. (978-985) III. MONOPOLIES LIMIT THE BENEFITS OF PRIVATE F. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is not harmful. INFRASTRUCTURE. (1023) 1. CO2 is not the cause of global warming. (986) 2. Increased CO2 helps agriculture. (987-990) IV. PRIVATIZATION WON’T BOLSTER INFRASTRUCTURE. (1024) III. HYDROGEN IS NOT A GOOD CHOICE AS A FUEL TO REPLACE V. MARKET FAILURES UNDERMINE THE BENEFITS OF GASOLINE AND DIESEL FUEL. PRIVATIZATION. (1025) A. Production of hydrogen still produces greenhouse gases. (991) B. Hydrogen is not a safe fuel. (992-993) EXTENSIONS TO THE FEDERALISM DISADVANTAGE C. Hydrogen is only an energy carrier, not a fuel. (994) I. THE STATES ARE THE PRIMARY FUNDERS OF D. Hydrogen is a net energy loser. (995) INFRASTRUCTURE POLICIES. (1026) E. Hydrogen storage is a problem. (996-997) II. FEDERAL INTERVENTION UNDERMINES THE STATES. F. More study is needed. (998-1000) A. Federal infrastructure spending repeats mistakes across the country. (1027) B. An infrastructure bank just adds a layer of federal bureaucracy. EXTENSION EVIDENCE FOR (1028) DISADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGE C. Congressional actions are key to federalism policy in the transportation area. (1029) ANSWERS D. Federal infrastructure projects are wasteful and environmentally damaging. (1030) EXTENSIONS TO THE PRIVATIZATION DISADVANTAGE III. THE STATES BEST SOLVE INFRASTRUCTURE POLICY. A. State control of infrastructure policies cause experimentation with I. PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IS ROBUST IN THE lower cost solutions. (1031) PRESENT SYSTEM. B. Devolving infrastructure policy to the states makes the most sense. A. The U.S. relies heavily on private infrastructure now. (1000) (1032) B. The U.S. is moving in the direction of privatized infrastructure now C. State governments should be in charge of infrastructure. (1033) due to our debt crisis. (1001) D. Higher federal budgets don’t justify federal control of infrastructure. C. The present system is moving toward drastic reductions in public (1034) infrastructure spending. (1002) IV. FEDERALISM LEADS TO PEACE WORLDWIDE. D. Public-private partnerships are increasing now. (1003) A. Federalism leads to peace between nations. (1035) II. GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIZATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MAKES B. Federal structures are important to peace making. (1036) IT LESS EFFICIENT. (1004) C. Federalism mitigates ethnic conflicts. (1037) III. PRIVATIZATION IS CRUCIAL TO U.S. COMPETITIVENESS. D. Federal solutions are the best hope to peaceful conflict solutions. A. Privatized infrastructure spending bolsters the broader economy. (1038) (1005) E. Federalism solves religious conflicts abroad. (1039) B. Profit motive ensures that private corporations will control costs. F. Federalism is the only basis for real peace. (1040) (1006) C. Private infrastructure is more cost-efficient for multiple reasons. ANSWERS TO THE FEDERALISM DISADVANTAGE (1007) D. Cost efficiency in infrastructure is the key to the economy & jobs. I. TRANSPORTATION SPENDING IS PROPERLY A FEDERAL (1008) GOVERNMENT FUNCTION. (1041) E. Poor infrastructure brings the economy to its knees. (1009) II. FEDERAL SUPPORT OF INFRASTRUCTURE IS KEY TO GLOBAL F. Full privatization of infrastructure is the best revenue producer. COMPETITIVENESS. (1042) (1010) III. FEDERALISM IS DYING NOW. G. Putting pressure on China to revalue its currency triggers a trade war. A. Multiple aggressive pre-emptions by the federal government have (1011) killed federalism. (1043) H. A trade war risks a worldwide depression and global conflict. (1012) B. State budget woes undermine federalism now. (1044) IV. PRIVATIZATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE IS KEY TO A IV. FEDERAL OVERSIGHT MAKES AN EFFECTIVE SET OF STATE RESILIENT ECONOMY. PROGRAMS. (1045) A. Privatization of infrastructure is key to resiliency. (1013) V. INCREASED INTERSTATE TRAVEL REQUIRES A B. Private sector investment is key to infrastructure resilience. (1014) COORDINATED NATIONAL APPROACH. (1046)
INDEX TO EVIDENCE BAYLOR BRIEFS 77
VI. FEDERALISM FAILS TO PROMOTE PEACE ABROAD. B. Even small drops in oil prices have massive effects on the Russian economy. (1087) A. Political culture is key to effective federalism—not just federal structures. (1047) C. High oil prices are key to Russia’s economy. (1088) B. Federalism can’t solve ethnic conflicts. (1048) D. Oil and gas constitute 75% of Russia’s exports. (1089) C. Federalism frequently fails abroad. (1049) E. A fall in GDP will severely undermine living standards in Russia. (1090) D. Federal structures frequently collapse when applied abroad. (1050) V. WEAK RUSSIAN ECONOMY RISKS CATASTROPHE. EXTENSIONS TO THE FOREIGN AID TRADE-OFF A. A weak economy risks declining security standards for nuclear DISADVANTAGE weapons—risking proliferation. (1091) I. OBAMA IS PROPOSING INCREASED FOREIGN AID SPENDING B. Proliferation risks nuclear war. (1092) NOW. (1051) ANSWERS TO THE RUSSIAN OIL DISADVANTAGE II. NEW SPENDING WILL TRADE-OFF WITH FOREIGN AID. I. RUSSIA’S ECONOMY IS WEAK NOW. A. Foreign aid is on the chopping block—previous cuts prove the trade- off. (1052) A. The European debt crisis will undermine the Russian economy now. (1093) B. Deeper cuts in spending will come from foreign aid. (1053) B. High spending is undermining the Russian economy now. (1094) C. Skepticism about foreign aid threatens foreign aid cuts. (1054) C. The European crisis will undermine Russia’s economy now. (1095) D. Republicans will demand cuts in foreign aid. (1055) D. Multiple factors undermine Russia’s economy now. (1096) E. Budget cuts risk cuts in foreign aid. (1056) E. Structural problems pose challenges for Russia’s economy. (1097) F. Aid programs will be in jeopardy as deficit reduction decisions are made. (1057) F. Russia’s economic growth is slow now. (1098) III. AMERICAN LEADERSHIP STOPS GREAT POWER WARS. (1058- II. HIGH OIL PRICES DON’T HELP RUSSIA’S ECONOMY. 1059) A. Weak export markets mean high oil prices; don’t help Russia’s economy. (1099) IV. FOREIGN AID HELPS THE POOR AND HUNGRY. B. High oil prices aren’t boosting Russia’s economy. (1100) A. Foreign aid helps the hungry. (1060-1062) B. Foreign aid necessary to save a billion people. (1063) EXTENSIONS TO THE DEFICITS DISADVANTAGE C. Hunger kills 40,000 children a day. (1064) I. THE U.S. DEFICIT WILL BE BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL NOW. D. Poverty kills millions each year. (1065) A. The U.S. deficit will shrink now. (1101) E. Cutting foreign aid would be a disaster for the poor. (1066) B. Both parties agree on the need for deficit reduction. (1102) F. Aid benefits the poor. (1067-1068) C. Deficit reduction packages will keep us out of trouble in the present G. Even modest amounts of foreign aid bolster the poor. (1069) system. (1103) H. It is mistaken to believe aid fails. (1070) D. U.S. debt is still regarded as a safe asset by foreign investors. (1104) V. FOREIGN AID SOLVES AIDS. II. THE U.S. AND WORLD ECONOMIES ARE STRONG NOW. A. Foreign aid budget is continuing to fight AIDS now. (1071) A. The U.S. economy is strong now. (1105-1106) B. Foreign aid to fight AIDS has saved millions of lives. (1072) B. The global economy is growing, but is still fragile. (1107) VI. FOREIGN AID FULFILLS OUR MORAL OBLIGATION. III. INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING IS VERY EXPENSIVE. A. Foreign aid fulfills the moral obligation to address suffering. (1073) A. Infrastructure spending is incredibly expensive. (1108) B. There is a moral obligation to provide for the poor and hungry. (1074) B. An infrastructure bank would be financed from the deficit. (1109) IV. HIGH DEFICITS UNDERMINE THE ECONOMY. ANSWERS TO THE FOREIGN AID TRADE-OFF A. High deficits undermine U.S. economic competitiveness. (1110- DISADVANTAGE 1111) I. AID CAN BE CUT WITHOUT THREATENING U.S. INTERESTS. B. High deficits risk a fiscal crisis in the United States. (1112) (1075) C. High deficits drain the economy of resources. (1113) D. High deficits risk a foreign investor pull-out of the United States. EXTENSIONS TO THE RUSSIAN OIL DISADVANTAGE (1114) I. HIGH OIL PRICES ARE BOLSTERING RUSSIA’S ECONOMY NOW. V. A NEW RECESSION WOULD TURN INTO A DEPRESSION. (1115) A. High commodity prices will bolster Russia’s economy now. (1076) VI. HIGH DEFICITS UNDERMINE U.S. LEADERSHIP. B. Russian economy is strong now. (1077) A. High deficits threaten the international economic position of the C. IMF reports strong Russian growth for this year. (1078) United States. (1116) D. Russian economic growth is strong now. (1079) B. A strong U.S. economy is crucial to our international leadership. (1117) II. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE WILL DECREASE OIL PRICES. C. Deficit reduction is crucial to the U.S. image in the world. (1118) D. Deficit reduction is critical to the U.S. status in the world. (1119) A. High speed rail will lower oil prices. (1080) E. U.S. economic leadership solves great power wars. (1120) B. Increased use of bicycles cuts oil dependence. (1081) C. Moving away from cars saves billions of gallons of gasoline a year. VII. INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING WON’T BOLSTER THE (1082) ECONOMY. (1121) III. WORLD OIL MARKETS MOVE TOGETHER. (1083-1085) ANSWERS TO THE DEFICITS DISADVANTAGE IV. DECREASED GAS PRICES WILL DESTROY RUSSIA’S I. POLITICAL FIGHTS PREVENT MEANINGFUL DEFICIT ECONOMY. REDUCTION POLICIES. (1122) A. Declining oil and gas revenue would wreck Russia’s economy. (1086) II. RUNAWAY SPENDING IS NOT THE CAUSE OF THE FEDERAL DEFICIT. (1123)
78 BAYLOR BRIEFS INDEX TO EVIDENCE
III. THE EUROPEAN CRISIS, NOT THE U.S. ECONOMY, IS KEY TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. (1124) IV. EUROPEAN WOES WILL UNDERMINE THE U.S. ECONOMY NOW. (1125)
EXTENSIONS TO THE POLITICS DISADVANTAGE I. OBAMA IS NOT USING POLITICAL CAPITAL ON TRANSPORATION SPENDING NOW. A. Obama isn’t pushing transportation spending now. (1126) B. Obama hasn’t put his political capital behind transportation proposals yet. (1127) II. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE WILL TRIGGER FIGHTS IN CONGRESS. A. Transportation infrastructure projects are a tough political sell. (1128) B. Transportation bills are a frequent site of clash for Republicans and Democrats. (1129) C. Public-private infrastructure projects quickly become victims of political gridlock. (1130) D. Ambitious infrastructure measures go nowhere in Congress. (1131) E. Republicans and Democrats frequently fight over infrastructure policies. (1132) F. Obama has major difficulty getting his transportation agenda through Congress. (1133) G. Republicans will fight against increased transportation spending. (1134-1135) H. Republicans pose a major obstacle to increased transportation infrastructure spending. (1136-1137) III. POLITICAL INFIGHTING PREVENTS THE U.S. FROM LIFTING TRADE RESTRICTIONS ON RUSSIA. (1138) IV. LIFTING JACKSON-VANIK IS CRITICAL TO THE U.S. ECONOMY. A. Lifting Jackson-Vanik will revitalize the American economy. (1139) B. Lifting Jackson-Vanik will massively expand U.S. exports to Russia. (1140) C. Repealing Jackson-Vanik is crucial for American businesses. (1141) D. Repealing Jackson-Vanik would provide a crucial market for U.S. goods. (1142)
ANSWERS TO THE POLITICS DISADVANTAGE I. JACKSON-VANIK WILL NOT BE REPEALED IN THE PRESENT SYSTEM. A. Ideological grudges prevent Jackson-Vanik repeal. (1143) B. Republicans won’t cave to lift Jackson-Vanik. (1144) C. An Obama push won’t get Jackson-Vanik repealed. (1145) D. Jackson-Vanik won’t be repealed until after the election. (1146-1147) II. CONTROVERSIAL POLICIES WILL BOLSTER OBAMA. (1148) III. PASSAGE OF JACKSON-VANIK WON’T BOLSTER U.S.- RUSSIAN RELATIONS. (1149) IV. U.S.-RUSSIAN COOPERATION IS INEVITABLE. (1150)
EVIDENCE BAYLOR BRIEFS 79
22. Elizabeth Jewell, (Editor), THE OXFORD DESK DICTIONARY AND 1. Amy Blackwell, (J.D., Staff, U. Virginia Law Library), THE THESAURUS, 2nd Ed., 2007, 415. Increase: Advance in quality, attainment, ESSENTIAL LAW DICTIONARY, 2008, 187. Federal: Relating to the central government of a union of states, such as the national government of etc. the United States. 23. Justin Crozier, (Editor), COLLINS DICTIONARY AND THESAURUS, 2005, 448. Its: Of or belonging to it. 2. Carol-June Cassidy, (Editor), CAMBRIDGE DICTIONARY OF AMERICAN ENGLISH, 2nd Ed., 2008, 308. Federal government: of or 24. Carol-June Cassidy, (Managing Editor), CAMBRIDGE DICTIONARY connected with the central government OF AMERICAN ENGLISH, 2nd Ed., 2008, 464. Its: Belonging to or connected with the thing or animal mentioned; the possessive form of it. 3. Daniel Oran, (Assitant Dir., National Paralegal Institute & J.D., Yale Law School), ORAN’S DICTIONARY OF THE LAW, 4th Ed., 2008, 206. 25. Frederick Mish, (Editor-in-chief), WEBSTER'S COLLEGIATE Federal government: The U.S. federal government is the national, as DICTIONARY, 10th ed., 1993, 623. Its: Of or relating to it or itself, esp. as opposed to state, government. possessor. 4. Carol-June Cassidy, (Editor), CAMBRIDGE DICTIONARY OF 26. Sandra Anderson, (Editor), COLLINS ENGLISH DICTIONARY, 8th AMERICAN ENGLISH, 2nd Ed., 2008, 308. Federal government: a system Ed., 2006, 867. Its: Belonging to, or associated in some way with. of government in which states unite and give up some of their powers to a central authority 27. Ulrike Bohlmann, (Lawyer, European Space Agency), HUMANS IN OUTER SPACE: INTERDISCIPLINARY ODYSSEYS, 2009, 184. In 5. Elizabeth Jewell, (Editor), THE OXFORD DESK DICTIONARY AND general, the term "exploration" signifies investigation, search, study, or THESAURUS, 2nd Ed., 2007, 835. Substantially: Essentially, at bottom, travel for discovery parallel to a geographic expedition. In a narrower sense, fundamentally, basically, in essence, intrinsically. the term is understood to mean investigation of the universe beyond the Earth's atmosphere by means of manned and unmanned spacecraft. 6. Elizabeth Jewell, (Editor), THE OXFORD DESK DICTIONARY AND THESAURUS, 2nd Ed., 2007, 835. Substantially: Essential; true in large 28. Roger Kemp, (City Manager, Berlin, Connecticut), HOW SAFE IS part. AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 22. The term infrastructure refers to the basic facilities and installations necessary for society to 7. Maurice Waite, (Editor), OXFORD DICTIONARY & THESAURUS, operate. It includes transportation and communication systems (highways, 2007, 1032. Substantially: concerning the essential points of something airports, bridges, telephone lines, cellular telephone towers, post offices, 8. Maurice Waite, (Editor), OXFORD DICTIONARY & THESAURUS, and so forth); educational and health facilities, water, gas, and electrical 2007, 1032. Substantially: fundamental, essential, basic. systems (dams, power lines, power plants, aqueducts, and the like); and miscellaneous facilities such as prisons, asylums, national park structures, 9. Amy Blackwell, (J.D., Staff, U. Virginia Law Library), THE and other improvements to real property owned by government. ESSENTIAL LAW DICTIONARY, 2008, 477. Substantial: Important, large, considerable, valuable. 29. Jeffrey W. Monroe, (Editor), DICTIONARY OF MARITIME AND TRANSPORTATION TERMS, 2005, 223. Infrastructure: System of roads, 10. Carol-June Cassidy, (Editor), CAMBRIDGE DICTIONARY OF AMERICAN ENGLISH, 2nd Ed., 2008, 873. Substantially: large in size, waterways, airfields, ports, and/or telecommunication networks in a certain area. value, or importance nd 30. Sidney Landau, (Sr. Editor), CAMBRIDGE DICTIONARY OF 11. Christine Lindberg, (Editor), OXFORD COLLEGE DICTIONARY, 2 AMERICAN ENGLISH, 2nd ed., 2008, 447. Infrastructure: The basic Ed., 2007, 1369. Substantially: Of considerable importance, size, or worth. structure of an organization or system which is necessary for its operation, 12. Elizabeth Jewell, (Editor), THE OXFORD DESK DICTIONARY AND esp. public water, energy, and systems for communication and transport. THESAURUS, 2nd Ed., 2007, 835. Substantially: Of real importance, value, 31. Nathan Musick, (Economist, Congressional Budget Office), PUBLIC or validity. SPENDING ON TRANSPORTATION AND WATER 13. Christopher Leonesio, (Managing Editor), AMERICAN HERITAGE INFRASTRUCTURE, 2010, ix. For the purposes of this study, HIGH SCHOOL DICTIONARY, 4th Ed., 2007, 1376. Substantial: True or transportation and water infrastructure encompasses infrastructure for all real; not imaginary. forms of surface transportation (highways, mass transit, rail, and waterways), aviation, water resources (such as dams and levees), and water 14. National Center for Safe Routes to School, FEDERAL SAFE ROUTES distribution and wastewater treatment. TO SCHOOL PROGRAM EVALUATION PLAN, Aug. 2011, 8. The Federal SRTS Program provides funds to the states to substantially improve 32. National Center for Safe Routes to School, FEDERAL SAFE ROUTES the ability of primary and middle school students to walk and bicycle to TO SCHOOL PROGRAM EVALUATION PLAN, Aug. 2011, 19. While school safely. the Federal SRTS program has grown tremendously over the past five years, there currently are not enough schools with SRTS activities— 15. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), particularly infrastructure—that have been in place for sufficient amount of TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 70-71. According to the ASCE, the country time for SRTS to have had a conceivable effect. needs to be spending $17 billion per year to "substantially improve current 33. Robert Papp, (Admiral & Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard), SAFE bridge conditions" but is now spending only $10.5 billion on bridge PORT ACT REAUTHORIZATION: SECURING OUR NATION'S construction and maintenance. CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, Senate Hrg., July 21, 2010, 41. Obviously, some very difficult decisions were made when putting together 16. Michael Replogle, (Dir., Institute for Transportation and Development), the 2011 budget. There were tradeoffs made to continue the recapitalization PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE SOLUTION, Hrg., of our infrastructure, the—those versatile and adaptable aircraft, boats, and July 7, 2009, 34. Public transportation infrastructure also helps facilitate more GHG-efficient land use and development patterns, which substantially ships that I talked about earlier, and to sustain some short-term reductions in other activities in order to pay for that. increase the net reduction in transportation-related GHG emissions over time. 34. Bob Gibbs, (U.S. Rep., Ohio), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S 17. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 46. As this report shows, cities INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 3. Addressing the infrastructure needs of the inland water system is with well-established rail transit have substantially lower per capita traffic not about economic benefit to a few barge companies, it is about keeping congestion delay than cities with smaller or no rail system. Cities with new or expanding rail transit systems often experience reductions in vehicle American farms and businesses competitive, and growing American jobs. Letting the inland water system decline further would be an economic ownership and use along rail corridors, attributed to a combination of transit disaster to add to the Nation's already significant fiscal problems. improvements and transit-oriented development. 18. Carol-June Cassidy, (Editor), CAMBRIDGE DICTIONARY OF 35. Michael Ball, (Ph.D., Researcher, Institute for Systems and Innovation AMERICAN ENGLISH, 2nd Ed., 2008, 441. Increase: to become or make Research), THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, 2009, 385-386. Developing a hydrogen infrastructure something larger or greater. involves selecting user centres, deciding on a mix of production 19. Christopher Leonesio, (Managing Editor), AMERICAN HERITAGE technologies, siting and sizing production plants, selecting transport options HIGH SCHOOL DICTIONARY, 4th Ed., 2007, 702. Increase: To become and locating and sizing refuelling stations. Integrating all this into an greater or larger. existing energy system constitutes a challenging task for the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier. 20. Elizabeth Jewell, (Editor), THE OXFORD DESK DICTIONARY AND THESAURUS, 2nd Ed., 2007, 415. Increase: Build up, enlarge, amplify, expand. 21. WORDS AND PHRASES CUMULATIVE SUPPLEMENTARY PAMPHLET, Vol. 20A, 07, 76. Increase: Salary change of from zero to $12,000 and $1,200 annually for mayor and councilmen respectively was an “increase” in salary and not merely the fixing of salary. King v. Herron, 243 S.E.2d36, 241 Ga. 5.
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36. Michael Ball, (Ph.D., Researcher, Institute for Systems and Innovation 47. Jean McKechnie, (Sr. Editor), WEBSTER’S NEW TWENTIETH Research), THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CENTURY DICTIONARY, UNABRIDGED, 2nd Ed., 1979, 966. Invest: CHALLENGES, 2009, 387. Significant advances in fuel-cell technology To put money into business, real estate, stocks, bonds, etc., for the purpose and increasing concern about future energy supplies have recently made of obtaining an income or profit. hydrogen a serious alternative, especially with regard to meeting future fuel 48. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: demand in the transport sector. Correspondingly, instruments have begun to PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. be developed in recent years to support planning and decision-making in setting up a hydrogen infrastructure, its integration into the existing energy TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 164. Policymakers, however, are currently focused on national fundraising strategies for infrastructure system and an estimation of the energy-economic consequences of a investments—particularly for highways—that include a National hydrogen economy. Infrastructure Bank, grants from the American Recovery and Reinvestment 37. Pamela Collins, (Prof., Homeland Security, Eastern Kentucky U.), Act of 2009 (popularly known as the stimulus bill), and taxes on vehicle- HOMELAND SECURITY AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE miles traveled. As noted, $8 billion of stimulus funds has already been PROTECTION, 2009, 5. After the World Trade Center (WTC) and appropriated to expand high-speed rail service without conducting any Oklahoma City Federal Building terrorist attacks in the 1990s there was an serious economic analysis. Such spending would do little to address the vast increased interest on the Nation's infrastructure, and discussions went inefficiencies in the system and would entail considerable waste. beyond the concern regarding the adequacy of these systems to a focus on how to better protect them. The term infrastructure was broadened to 49. Randolph Babbitt, (Administrator, FAA), CONGRESSIONAL include this new domestic threat of international and domestic terrorism. DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, NOV. 7, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from Nexis. Between 2007 and 2011, approximately $2.8 billion has 38. City of Denver Public Works Department, COMPLETE STREETS, been appropriated for NextGen. The FAA estimates the development of May 17, 2011. Retrieved Mar. 7, 2012 from http://www.completestreets. NextGen will require between $15 and $22 billion from 2012 to 2025. org/webdocs/policy/cs-co-denver-policy.pdf. Transportation infrastructure These figures represent important investments with substantial returns. Our is defined as any facility designed for transporting people and goods latest estimates show that by 2018, NextGen air traffic management including, but not limited to, sidewalks, trails, bike lanes, highways, streets, improvements will reduce total delays, in flight and on the ground, by bridges, tunnels, railroads, mass transportation, and parking systems. approximately 35 percent, compared with what would happen if we maintained our current system. This delay reduction will provide $23 billion 39. Ryan Orr, (Dir., Collaboratory for Research on Global Projects), ENABLING USER-FEE BACKED TRANSPORTATION FINANCE IN in cumulative benefits through 2018 to aircraft operators, the traveling public, and the FAA. Additionally, we will save about 1.4 billion gallons of CALIFORNIA, Jan. 2008. Retrieved Mar. 7, 2012 from aviation fuel during this period, cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 14 http://crgp.stanford.edu/publications/working_papers/Orr_Keever_Enabling _User_Fee_Backed_Transportation_Finance_wp0041.pdf. Here million tons. transportation infrastructure is defined as “any fixed physical asset designed 50. Richard Day, (Vice President for Operations, FAA), NEXTGEN: for transporting people and goods including highways, arterial streets, AREA NAVIGATION (RNAV)/REQUIRED NAVIGATION bridges, tunnels, and mass transportation systems. PERFORMANCE (RNP), House Hrg., July 29, 2009, 115. Achieving the full capability of NextGen benefits will require investment by both the 40. Susanne Trimbath, (Prof., Economics, Bellevue U.), government and the private sector. Ensuring that a significant portion of the TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE: PAVING THE WAY, 2011, aircraft fleet is appropriately equipped to take advantage of NextGen 9. The process, detailed in the [U.S. Chamber of Commerce] Technical Report last summer (US Chamber 2010), is basically this: Clearly define improvements is one of the most critical issues in achieving success. “transportation infrastructure” as the underlying structures that support the 51. JayEtta Hecker, (Dir., Physical Infrastructure Issues, Government delivery of inputs to places of production, goods and services to customers, Accountability Office), SURFACE TRANSPORTATION: and customers to marketplaces. The structures are: transit, highways, INFRASTRUCTURE, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES AND SAFETY, airports, railways, waterways (ports), intermodal links. 2010, 83. The continued relevance of some of these programs in the 21st century is unclear. For example, the Highway Trust Fund was created in 41. David Kerr, (Sr. Vice President, Special Investments, Government of 1956 to distribute funds for the construction of the interstate highway Singapore), THE HANDBOOK OF INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTING, 2010, 19. Transportation-related infrastructure—roads, bridges, tunnels, system. That system is now complete. However, the federal highway program's funding and delivery mechanisms have not substantially changed. railways, canals, seaports, and airports—is such a fundamental cornerstone Furthermore, there is a growing differential between expected Highway of the modern economy that we hardly think of the central role it plays in our global society. Trust Fund revenue and planned levels of spending on surface transportation programs. 42. Office of Management and Budget, WIN THE FUTURE WITH A 21ST 52. Sam Staley, (Dir., Urban Land Use Policy, Reason Foundation), CENTURY INFRASTRUCTURE, 2012. Retrieved Mar. 7, 2012 from MOBILITY FIRST: A NEW VISION FOR TRANSPORTATION IN http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/factsheet/21st-century-infrastructure. Key elements of the nation’s surface transportation infrastructure — our GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, 2009, 7. The fuel tax is an increasingly unsustainable means of funding transportation highways, bridges, and transit assets — fall short of a state of good repair. projects. We are driving more, increasing demand for infrastructure, but This can impact the capacity, performance, and safety of our transportation system. paying less fuel tax per mile as our vehicles get more fuel efficient. A shift to road pricing of some kind is inevitable—and desirable. Technological 43. Milan Janic, (Prof., Engineering, Delft U. of Technology), AIRPORT changes are rapidly making direct pricing more feasible, especially tolling ANALYSIS, PLANNING AND DESIGN, 2009, 12. Airports represent a specific roads. In the past decade about one-third of new freeway miles built part of the air transport system's infrastructure. They can be of different size in the United States were toll roads. Direct charges for using roads will lead depending on the volume of traffic they accommodate in terms of the air to more efficient use of roads, reduce congestion and provide a revenue passengers, airfreight shipments, and atm (air transport movements) during stream that allows private capital investment to increase our total a given period of time (hour, day, year). Generally, each airport consists of infrastructure investment. the airside and the landside area. 53. Keith Crane, (Analyst, RAND Corporation), THE OPTION OF AN OIL 44. Milan Janic, (Prof., Engineering, Delft U. of Technology), AIRPORT TAX TO FUND TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, ANALYSIS, PLANNING AND DESIGN, 2009, 31. Airports are an 7. In 2009, federal spending on ground transportation ran $53.6 billion, essential component of the infrastructure of the air transport system. while federal HTF revenues were $34.96 billion. The difference between Regarding their actual function and according to terminology used in the these expenditures and HTF revenues was financed by federal borrowing. theory of transport networks, airports are considered as the multimodal transport nodes facilitating the air mode and the other ground transport 54. Eric Kelderman, (Analyst, Pew Research Center), U.S. modes, thus enabling the users, i.e. passengers and freight shipments (air INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 25. Federal and state officials share the blame for shortfalls in America's maintenance budget. Congress hasn't raised the cargo), to change the transport mode during their door-to-door trips. federal gasoline tax of 18.4 cents per gallon—which pays for about 45 45. T.K. Kallenbach, (Vice President, Honeywell Aerospace), FAA percent of all road construction—since 1993, nor have many state leaders REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF been willing to charge drivers more at the pump to pay for local road MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 45. NextGen is a key repairs. element of the U.S. transportation infrastructure. There has been a great deal of discussion recently on the urgent need to revitalize our Nation's 55. Peter Orszag, (Dir., Congressional Budget Office), infrastructure. Much of that attention has been focused on our roads and INFRASTRUCTURE: REBUILDING, REPAIRING AND RESTRUCTURING, 2009, 14. Most of the federal government's programs bridges, rail networks, and telecommunications—critical components, to be for surface transportation are financed through the Highway Trust Fund. sure. Aviation's contribution to our infrastructure is just as important, however, and air traffic management is a foundational element of that About 90 percent of total revenues credited to the trust fund come from two taxes on motor fuels. The tax of 18.4 cents per gallon on gasoline and infrastructure. gasoline-ethanol blends currently accounts for about two-thirds of the trust 46. Ian Brookes, (Sr. Editor), THE CHAMBERS DICTIONARY, 10th ed., fund's total revenues. The levy of 24.3 cents per gallon on diesel fuel 2006, 784. Investment: Any placing of money to secure income or profit. accounts for about one-quarter more. Both tax rates have been unchanged since 1993. In 2007, receipts to the Highway Trust Fund from those taxes totaled about $38.8 billion.
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56. Neil Grigg, (Prof., Environmental Engineering, Colorado State U.), 65. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE: THE BUSINESS OF PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 2010, 74. In TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 4-7. Transportation also requires 2009, the Obama administration predicted that the Highway Trust Fund users to expend their time—a valuable commodity excluded from GDP. In would be short $17 billion over the next two years due to the recession and 2007 travelers spent roughly 175 billion hours in transit, and commodities gas tax increases. In 2008, Congress transferred $8 billion from the shipped by surface and air freight absorbed 25.6 billion ton-days in transit. government's general fund to meet the shortfall, and it may have to do so To convert those transit times into dollar figures, I assume that travelers again. This transfer represents a transfer of funding from gas tax to income value time at half their hourly wage (Small and Verhoef indicate that this is tax and a willingness by the government to take on debt to finance a reasonable assumption) and that shippers attach a cost of 7 percent of their highways. Meanwhile, state governments are facing severe funding limits shipments' value for each additional day spent in transit—a figure that is due to revenue shortages, so the near-term prospects for funding for bounded by Winston and Langer's daily discount rates for shipments of bulk highways and bridges look very limited. and perishable commodities. The result is that transportation accounts for another $2.9 trillion in economic activity for a grand total of roughly $5 57. Marcia Clemmitt, (Analyst, CQ Researcher), URBAN ISSUES, 2009, trillion! 115. Virtually all infrastructure analysts say upgrades and maintenance require more funding, but increasing taxes to raise the money is sparking 66. Jonathan Miller, (Analyst, Urban Land Institute), INFRASTRUCTURE hot debate in Washington. As early as the 1930s, states introduced fuel 2009: PIVOT POINT, 2009, iv. Infrastructure plays a pivotal role in the taxes to pay for road construction, and the main federal source of highway economic fabric of regions, countries, states, cities, and towns. It is the funds today is an 18.4-cents-per-gallon gasoline tax, last increased in 1993. underlying physical framework of any society, and its types are as wide ranging as its uses. Roads and bridges, high-speed rail, irrigation systems, 58. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY sanitation systems, energy grids, schools, and hospitals: these are all WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, examples of the infrastructure we depend on to travel, to transport our 155. Gas taxes not only fail to keep up with inflation, they fail to keep up with more fuel-efficient cars. The average motor vehicle on the American goods, and to provide access to efficient energy and clean water resources that enable our businesses and communities to survive. highway today uses 30 percent less energy per mile than the average vehicle in 1960. After adjusting for both inflation and fuel economy, federal and 67. Samuel Sheridan, (Analyst, New America Foundation), HOW SAFE IS state gas taxes per mile driven peaked in 1960 at 3.9 cents per mile (in 2007 AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 68. Thomas Donohue, the dollars). Today, the average American motorist pays less than half of this president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, has voiced his amount for every mile driven. concern about America's failure to provide world-class infrastructure and has warned that should we fail to invest, our economy will not achieve its 59. Keith Crane, (Analyst, RAND Corporation), THE OPTION OF AN OIL TAX TO FUND TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, full potential. xi. In 2009, federal spending on surface-transportation infrastructure 68. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), outpaced revenues into the federal Highway Trust Fund (HTF) by $18.6 TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND billion. The HTF is funded through federal taxes on gasoline and diesel THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 2. The fact is that the structural backbone of fuel. Because these taxes are not indexed to inflation and because U.S. our nation—upon which we depend for the reliable and efficient delivery of motor vehicles are becoming more efficient, resulting in fewer purchases of people, goods, and services—is in great peril. gasoline and diesel, real revenue generated from these taxes has declined. 69. Stephen Flynn, (Sr. Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations), HOW SAFE Congress is considering ways to address this gap between transportation IS AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 53. We are the wealthiest revenues and expenditures. country on the planet with a gross domestic product of over $13 trillion 60. Neil Grigg, (Prof., Environmental Engineering, Colorado State U.), dollars per year. What madness leads us to believe we can continue to be INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE: THE BUSINESS OF safe and prosperous by taking for granted the critical foundations that made INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 2010, 95. our advanced society advanced in the first place? Traditional sources of funding are not adequate to finance a twentieth- century transportation system, and the twenty-first-century system will be 70. Eric Janszen, (Economist, University of Massachusetts, Amherst Eleanor Bateman Alumni Scholar), THE POSTCATASTROPHE not only smarter but financed in different ways. In 2009, the Obama ECONOMY: REBUILDING AMERICA AND AVOIDING THE NEXT administration predicted that the Highway Trust Fund would be $17 billion short over two years due to the recession and losses in gas tax revenues. BUBBLE, 2010, 13. Infrastructure development is a valid role for government, to enable private industry to move goods, people, assets, and Innovative transportation finance solutions are needed to bridge the gaps. information more quickly and at lower cost, using less energy per dollar of 61. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY economic output. WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, 203. Once a relatively insignificant part of the federal budget, transportation 71. Nathan Musick, (Economist, Congressional Budget Office), PUBLIC SPENDING ON TRANSPORTATION AND WATER spending now totals some $70 billion a year. This makes it the largest INFRASTRUCTURE, 2010, x. Evidence suggests that spending for source of discretionary spending after national defense and explains why the House Transportation Committee is the biggest committee in carefully selected infrastructure projects can contribute to long-term economic growth by increasing the capital stock and raising productivity. congressional history. Transportation earmarks, nonexistent before 1980, (During a prolonged economic downturn, infrastructure spending can also numbered more than 7,000 and totaled more than $24 billion (to be spread over five years) in 2005, giving various interest groups 24 billion reasons to mitigate losses in output and employment.) thank their senators and representatives. 72. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. 62. JayEtta Hecker, (Dir., Physical Infrastructure Issues, Government TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 7. Transportation's influence Accountability Office), SURFACE TRANSPORTATION: INFRASTRUCTURE, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES AND SAFETY, extends beyond the nation's borders. In this era of globalization, international trade—whose share of U.S. GDP has grown to more than 15 2010, 23. Congress provides congressionally directed spending for surface percent—is facilitated by ocean and Great Lakes transportation and by transportation through specific provisions in legislation or committee reports. While estimates of the precise number and value of these trucks and railroads that carry freight to and from the nation's ports. International passenger and freight air traffic is intertwined with the congressional directives vary, observers agree that they have grown domestic system. dramatically. For instance, the Transportation Research Board found that congressional directives have grown from 11 projects in the 1982 73. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: reauthorization act to over 5,000 projects in the 2005 reauthorization act. PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 3. Automobiles and jet aircraft are 63. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group commonly listed among the greatest human inventions of all time, while the Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS U.S. road system represents the nation's largest civilian public investment, valued at $2.4 trillion in 2006. These and other transportation inventions AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 3. There is little accountability for proper and investments have contributed significantly to U.S. economic growth by maintenance. In theory, federal law authorizes the U.S. Transportation Secretary to withhold funds from states that fail to properly maintain roads enabling firms to expand the size and scope of their markets. and bridges; but the law does not define "proper maintenance" and the 74. Michael Likosky, (Sr. Fellow, Institute for Public Knowledge, New power is virtually never used. York U.), OBAMA’S BANK: FINANCING A DURABLE NEW DEAL, 2010, 89. We do not invest in infrastructure projects because they are 64. Robert Puentes, (Sr. Fellow, Metropolitan Program, Brookings Institution), A PATH TO PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS FOR inherently profitable. Instead, a quality portfolio of infrastructure projects is itself a precondition to self-sufficiency and economic development. INFRASTRUCTURE, Dec. 9, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 13, 2012 from President Barack Obama views infrastructure and energy projects as a way http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1209_infrastructure_puentes_istra te.aspx. State funding sources are also shrinking. In addition to the 21 states of re-laying the foundation of our economy. that saw transportation program cuts in fiscal year 2010, more are proposed 75. Roger Kemp, (City Manager, Berlin, Connecticut), HOW SAFE IS for the next fiscal year. AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 23. In short, ASCE's report card says, U.S. roads, bridges, sewers, and dams are crumbling and need a $1.6 trillion overhaul.
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76. Marcia Clemmitt, (Analyst, CQ Researcher), URBAN ISSUES, 2009, 87. Rosa DeLauro, (Chair, House Subcommittee on Agriculture & Rural 113. Because of increasing user demand and years of neglected Development), INFRASTRUCTURE: REBUILDING, REPAIRING AND maintenance, the U.S. infrastructure overall rates a near-failing grade of "D" RESTRUCTURING, 2009, 63. Indeed, with our national economy from the ASCE. The group says a $1.6-trillion, five-year investment is struggling, the smartest national investments are the ones that create jobs needed to bring facilities up to snuff. today and continue to pay off for years down the road and whose benefits reach our entire community. The National Surface Transportation Policy 77. Eric Kelderman, (Analyst, Pew Research Center), U.S. and Revenue Study Commission January report recommended an annual INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 24. The numbers are staggering. More than $225 billion investment to maintain and improve our transportation system, one in four of America's nearly 600,000 bridges need significant repairs or are burdened with more traffic than they were designed to carry, according approximately $140 billion more than is currently invested. to the U.S. Department of Transportation. 88. Neil Grigg, (Prof., Environmental Engineering, Colorado State U.), INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE: THE BUSINESS OF 78. Robert Puentes, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), TOO BIG TO INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 2010, 93. The FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, xii. As infrastructure is allowed to deteriorate, the cost sheer magnitude of the cost to maintain 4 million miles of roads and 600,000 bridges is a formidable national policy challenge. Funds are of maintenance and repair climbs, and the longer we wait, the faster and required to maintain, operate, renew, and expand the system while adapting higher it climbs. It is time to take responsibility for these conditions, and to make the needed investments to maintain the system we currently enjoy and new smart technologies. to build the twenty-first-century system that America demands. 89. Paul McCaffrey, (Journalist), U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 3. In January 2009, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) issued its 79. David Nash, (Chair, National Research Council’s Board on Report Card for America's Infrastructure. In compiling the grades, ASCE Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment, SUSTAINABLE CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS: A FRAMEWORK FOR analyzed the conditions of a range of the nation's critical facilities, from roads and bridges to dams and levees. The results were deeply troubling. No MEETING 21ST CENTURY IMPERATIVES, 2009, 3. Large segments aspect of U.S. infrastructure warranted a grade higher than a C+, while such and components of the nation's critical infrastructure systems are now 50 to 100 years old. Their performance and condition are deteriorating, as vital components as drinking water, wastewater treatment and disposal, levees, roads, and inland waterways each earned a D-. In all, the combined evidenced by transportation congestion, air and water pollution, and grade point average (GPA) for all American infrastructure was a increasing instances of power and other service disruptions. disappointing D. According to ASCE calculations, an investment of $2.2 80. Marcia Clemmitt, (Analyst, CQ Researcher), URBAN ISSUES, 2009, trillion dollars over the next five years was required to bring these facilities 114. Much of the existing U.S infrastructure was built in the 1930s, '40s and up to speed. '50s and today carries loads that "are magnitudes beyond" what its builders anticipated. 90. Sam Staley, (Dir., Urban Land Use Policy, Reason Foundation), MOBILITY FIRST: A NEW VISION FOR TRANSPORTATION IN 81. Michael Likosky, (Sr. Fellow, Institute for Public Knowledge, New GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, 2009, 171. York U.), OBAMA’S BANK: FINANCING A DURABLE NEW DEAL, The National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study 2010, 29. The Obama Bank must take the lead in reinvigorating our Commission released its report claiming we need to spend between $241 economy through strategic public investment that not only benefits and $286 billion every year to maintain and improve our entire Americans tomorrow but also gives them jobs now Infrastructure should be transportation system (including waterways, freight railroads, Amtrak, etc.) the cornerstone of this strategy. even if we adopt aggressive strategies to slow down travel demand and price the national highway using variable rate tolling and congestion 82. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), charges. TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 161. During his campaign, President Obama 91. Michael Likosky, (Sr. Fellow, Institute for Public Knowledge, New promised that what was then called a National Infrastructure Reinvestment York U.), OBAMA’S BANK: FINANCING A DURABLE NEW DEAL, Bank would invest $60 billion over ten years, which would be leveraged 2010, 17. Despite accusations of socialism, President Obama does not even into almost half a trillion dollars of additional infrastructure spending while intend to rebuild our economy through government vehicles like the self- generating nearly two million new jobs. liquidating public corporations of the New Deal era. Instead, the government will form public-private partnerships (PPPs or P3s), using 83. Petra Todorovich, (Dir., America2050), HIGH-SPEED RAIL: private companies as policy organs to re-lay the foundations of our INTERNATIONAL LESSONS FOR U.S. POLICY MAKERS, 2011, 48. The European Investment Bank (EIB) provides subsidized loans with economy with a large-scale network of infrastructure projects including roads, bridges, high-speed railways, clean energy, telecommunications, and favorable interest rates and long repayment periods, as well as loan other vital areas. The financial institution stimulus package is designed to guarantees and direct recruitment of private lenders. While the United States currently does not have an equivalent to the EIB, President Obama facilitate these partnerships. has proposed a national infrastructure bank that could play a similar role in 92. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), providing loans, grants, and credit assistance for transportation projects at a TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND regional or national scale. The president also proposed capitalizing the bank THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, xxiv-xxv. We sorely lack leadership from with $30 billion in the FY 2012 federal budget. the federal government. We need leaders who recognize the urgency of developing a coordinated policy that combines federal, state, local, and 84. Michael Likosky, (Sr. Fellow, Institute for Public Knowledge, New private interests into a single strategy for rescuing our transportation York U.), OBAMA’S BANK: FINANCING A DURABLE NEW DEAL, 2010, 25. Obama has spoken about emulating China's infrastructure-driven system. In the absence of such a new national transportation plan, I have no doubt that we will see many more tragedies like the one on I-35W in the economic growth. For example, in a campaign trail speech in Chester, years ahead. Pennsylvania, with the Olympics under way, Obama said, "Everybody's watching what's going on in Beijing right now and the Olympics. Think 93. JayEtta Hecker, (Dir., Physical Infrastructure Issues, Government about the amount of money that China has spent on infrastructure. Their Accountability Office), SURFACE TRANSPORTATION: ports, their train systems, their airports are all vastly superior to us now, INFRASTRUCTURE, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES AND SAFETY, which means if you're a corporation deciding where to do business, you're 2010, 44. The current federal approach to addressing the nation's surface starting to think, Beijing looks like a pretty good option." transportation problems is not working well. Despite large increases in expenditures in real terms for transportation the investment has not resulted 85. Andrew Tangel, (Staff), HERALD NEWS, Apr. 7, 2012, A1. Until in a commensurate improvement in the performance of nation's surface Friday, all signs pointed toward an economic recovery gaining momentum. Jobless claims had slid to a four-year low of 357,000; the federal transportation system, as congestion continues to grow, and looming problems from the anticipated growth in travel demand are not being government reported the economy expanded at a 3 percent annual pace in adequately addressed. the fourth quarter; retail sales at national chains rose 4.1 percent; factory orders in March gained 1.3 percent. But the economy added only 120,000 94. Jonathan Miller, (Analyst, Urban Land Institute), INFRASTRUCTURE jobs in March, the Labor Department said Friday, well short of the 205,000 2009: PIVOT POINT, 2009, 9. In the absence of a national infrastructure forecast, following three months of payrolls expanding by more than master plan for guidance, the raft of promised 2009 federal infrastructure 200,000. dollars will funnel through to states, cities, and towns, which undertake ad hoc projects often lacking attention to regional or national priorities. "It's 86. Colin Peppard, (Staff, Natural Resources Defense Council), THE what the country has been doing for decades. We fund a collection of ROAD TO RECOVERY: INVESTING IN A NEW TRANSPORTATION projects. The jobs program just pumps more dollars into the same broken POLICY, Mar. 2011. Retrieved Feb. 18, 2012 from www.nrdc.org/energy/ transportation/files/roadtorecovery.pdf. Some investments make smarter use system. It's not a strategy. We need a strategy." of scarce taxpayer dollars than others. For example, repair jobs and public transportation investments typically have very high rates of return. Jobs are created directly as part of project construction, indirectly through the manufacturing supply chain (e.g. steel for rails, components for buses and rail cars) as well as through workers spending wages domestically.
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95. Jonathan Miller, (Analyst, Urban Land Institute), INFRASTRUCTURE 105. Holmes Rolston, (Prof., Philosophy, Colorado State U.), 2009: PIVOT POINT, 2009, 59. Like the 50-year-old European Investment EARTHCARE: AN ANTHOLOGY IN ENVIRONMENTAL ETHICS, Bank, the U.S. version would not attempt to finance the total cost of any 2009, 538. One form of life has never endangered so many others. Never project. Rather, its investment would be used to attract and enable other before has this level of question – superkilling by a superkiller – been faced. funding sources by lowering investment risk. The bank could also provide Humans have more understanding than ever of the speciating processes, the framework for funding more complicated long-term ventures, selecting more predictive power to foresee the intended and unintended results of projects through a cost/benefit analysis rather than a purely political their actions, and more power to reverse the undesirable consequences. The calculus. Transport projects could be evaluated based on meeting national duties that such power and vision generate no longer attach simply to goals for facilitating mobility across national networks, reducing vehicle individuals or persons, but are emerging duties to specific forms of life. miles traveled, cutting emissions, providing multimodal options, and encouraging more compact communities. 106. Anthony Clevenger, (Sr. Scientist at the Western Transportation Institute, Montana State U.), SAFE PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, 96. Marcia Clemmitt, (Analyst, CQ Researcher), URBAN ISSUES, 2009, WILDLIFE, AND HABITAT CONNECTIVITY, 2010, 17. The linear 127. About 45 percent of federal funds for maintenance and operation go to nature of surface transportation systems creates a suite of concerns for run the nation's air-traffic control system, and 60 percent of federal transportation professionals as they seek to ameliorate the impacts of their construction funds pay for highway projects. Total spending to build capital projects on environmental resources. Roadways and railroads slice through projects has grown by about 2 percent per year since 1981, while spending a series of habitats and hydrological features, impacting wildlife and on maintenance and operation has risen 2.1 percent. motorist safety, aquatic resources, habitat connectivity, and many other environmental values. 97. Marcia Clemmitt, (Analyst, CQ Researcher), URBAN ISSUES, 2009, 131. In general, states are making better progress than the federal 107. Jon Beckmann, (Prof., Wildlife Management, Idaho State U.), SAFE government on improving decision-making processes, says Poole. In PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, WILDLIFE, AND HABITAT California, a state Transportation Commission with members appointed by CONNECTIVITY, 2010, 6-7. The creation and expansion of roads government bodies with various missions sets priorities. "There is some decreases existing natural habitat and can lower the quality of remaining politics still, but they do a reasonably good job," says the Reason habitat adjacent to roads. The area impacted includes the lanes of road and Foundation's Poole. also the area of vegetation that is maintained alongside the road, which can extend anywhere from a meter to 10 or more meters (32.8 feet) away from 98. Nathan Musick, (Economist, Congressional Budget Office), PUBLIC SPENDING ON TRANSPORTATION AND WATER the edge of the road. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2010, 19. The federal share of funding for many 108. State of Washington Department of Transportation, HABITAT infrastructure projects usually does not vary among individual projects. For CONNECTIVITY – WHAT IS IT? July 21, 2010, 1. Wildlife need to move example, states have broad flexibility in deciding how to use the grants they — Mobility is the key to survival for many wildlife species. Animals need receive under the federal highway program. As long as those highway to move from place to place for food, protective security cover, and in projects qualify for federal funding, and as long as state governments pay response to seasonal conditions. Sometimes long distance movements are for a portion—typically 20 percent—of the costs, states can decide which critical for finding mates or establishing a territory in vacant habitat. Urban projects to carry out and how to do so. areas, busy roads, and other alterations to the landscape can create barriers to animal movements. 99. Christopher Rugaber, (Staff, Associated Press), THE VIRGINIAN- PILOT, Mar. 10, 2012, A11. The United States added 227,000 jobs in 109. Marcel Hutjser, (Commissioner, National Academy’s Transportation February, the latest display of the breadth and strength of the economic Research Board), SAFE PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, WILDLIFE, AND recovery. The country has put together the most impressive three months of HABITAT CONNECTIVITY, 2010, 54. While the reconstruction of rural job growth since before the Great Recession. two-lane roads typically leads to safer roads through wider lanes, shoulders, and clear zones, wildlife-vehicle collisions appear to increase rather than 100. Michael Fletcher, (Staff), WASHINGTON POST, Jan. 7, 2012, A1. The unemployment rate dipped to its lowest level in nearly three years last decrease after road reconstruction, probably as a result of an increase in design speed. month, good news that on Friday rippled through rival presidential campaigns whose prospects could hinge on the pace of the economic 110. Natural Resources Council, ROADS AND WILDLIFE: recovery. Unemployment has declined in four consecutive months, to 8.5 FRAGMENTED HABITAT AND DRIVING HAZARDS, 2010, 1. percent, its lowest level since the president's second month in office. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, animal- However fragile, it is the kind of trend that President Obama is counting on vehicle accidents cost $1 billion annually in property damage and cause an to convince voters that he deserves a second term in the White House. average of 165 human deaths. For the animals involved, collisions with vehicles are the leading direct human cause of wildlife mortality, surpassing 101. Allison Westfahl, (J.D. Candidate), NEW YORK UNIVERSITY LAW hunting. REVIEW, Apr. 2010, 362. Another rationale is that there are moral reasons for protecting endangered species, whether or not these species directly 111. Anthony Clevenger, (Analyst, Western Transportation Institute), benefit humans. That is, species have intrinsic value "as ends in WILDLIFE CROSSING STRUCTURE HANDBOOK, Mar. 2011, 15. themselves." Even if a species' existence fails to produce any monetary Traffic has been shown to be the leading mortality source for some wide- value and is not necessary to the survival of other species, it should still be ranging mammals, e.g., Florida Panther, regional Bear and Bighorn Sheep protected because it has an inherent dignity. populations. Roads were also shown to be the primary cause of wildlife population declines and habitat fragmentation among many amphibian 102. Ari Sommer, (Editor), BOSTON COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL populations. AFFAIRS LAW REVIEW, 2009, 284. In his first State of the Union Address following his reelection, President Richard M. Nixon called for 112. Natural Resources Council, ROADS AND WILDLIFE: strengthening regulations for the protection of endangered species. Support in Congress for what became the Endangered Species Act (ESA) was FRAGMENTED HABITAT AND DRIVING HAZARDS, 2010, 1. overwhelming, as judged by the dearth of dissent and discussion regarding Animal-vehicle accidents cost $1 billion annually in property damage and the original bills. The only substantive debate in each house addressed the cause an average of 165 human deaths. potential division of responsibilities between the National Marine Fisheries 113. Lindsey O’Brien, (Staff), PORTLAND DAILY JOURNAL OF Service (NMFS) and the Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). As he signed COMMERCE, Feb. 7, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 8, 2012 from Nexis. By a the final bill, President Nixon stated, "[t]his legislation provides the Federal narrow 29-27 margin, the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee last Government with needed authority to protect an irreplaceable part of our week voted against restoring money for Safe Routes to School and national heritage--threatened wildlife." Transportation Enhancements. The bill is expected to go to the House floor 103. Kalyani Robbins, (Prof., Law, Akron School of Law), BUFFALO for a vote by the end of the month, although if it were to pass in its present LAW REVIEW, Dec. 2010, 1096. The primary goal Congress expressed in form, it likely would not be signed into law, according to DeFazio and the "Purposes" subsection of the ESA was "to provide a means whereby the several others. ecosystems upon which endangered species and threatened species depend 114. Richard Primack, (Prof., Biology, Boston U.), ESSENTIALS OF may be conserved." This is a reference to habitat conservation, which is a CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, 5th Ed., 2010, 378-379. In many areas, key element of the Act. Conservation biologists had already determined that culverts, tunnels, and overpasses create passages under and over roads and habitat loss is the single most important factor in species extinction, and that railways that allow for dispersal between habitats for lizards, amphibians, habitat protection is essential to recovery. and mammals. An added benefit of these passageways is that collisions 104. Richard Primack, (Prof., Biology, Boston U.), ESSENTIALS OF between animals and vehicles are reduced, which saves lives and money. In CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, 5th Ed., 2010, 117. All species represent Canada's Banff National Park, road collisions involving deer, elk, and other unique biological solutions to the problem of survival. All are the living large mammals declined by 96% after fences, overpasses, and underpasses representatives of grand historical lineages, and all have their own beauty were installed along a major highway. and fitness. For these reasons, the survival of each species must be 115. Ted Conover, (Prof., Journalism, NYU), THE ROUTES OF MAN: guaranteed, regardless of its importance to humans. HOW ROADS ARE CHANGING THE WORLD AND THE WAY WE LIVE, 2010, 115. Larger forces are at work here than can be countered by fences, wildlife bridges, and a few pipes under roads. The road ecology movement aims to get planners and transportation departments thinking about better ways to build roads and minimize their detrimental effects on the environment.
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116. Marcel Hutjser, (Commissioner, National Academy’s Transportation 125. James Oberstar, (U.S. Representative, Minnesota), HIGH SPEED Research Board), SAFE PASSAGES: HIGHWAYS, WILDLIFE, AND RAIL: BACKGROUND AND ISSUES, 2010, 94. The fact is that over the HABITAT CONNECTIVITY, 2010, 316. Animal detection systems are an past 50 years, the federal government has invested nearly $1.3 trillion in our example of a developing technology aimed at reducing animal-vehicle nation's highways and over $473 billion in aviation. However, only since collisions. Animal detection systems use sensors to detect large mammals 1970, when Congress created Amtrak did we begin a grant program for that approach the road. Once a large mammal has been detected, warning passenger rail. Since that time we have invested just $53 billion dollars in signs are activated urging drivers to slow down and be more alert. passenger rail — that is only a small fraction of what European and Asian countries have invested. Without question, the United States lags 117. Animal Welfare Institute, WILDLIFE CROSSINGS, Spr. 2010. Retrieved Apr. 8, 2012 from http://www.awionline.org/awi-quarterly/2010- significantly behind the rest of the world when it comes to high-speed rail. spring/wildlife-crossings. Meeting what at one time seemed like an 126. Vikram Janardhan, (CEO, Insera Energy, LLC), ENERGY insurmountable challenge to the varied agendas of commercial and EXPLAINED, Vol. 1, 2011, 63. Remaining proven reserves on the planet recreational drivers, federal and local government, conservationists, are estimated to be around 1.1 trillion barrels. At the current rate of highway engineers and members of Native American nations, many states consumption—around 84 million barrels a day—there would be only have embarked on odysseys to build a series of bridges, culverts and tunnels enough oil to sustain the planet for another 35 years under the best of for animals, or aptly named "wildlife crossings." These structures, often scenarios. Obviously, any increase in demand would shorten that horizon. with fences that act as guidelines to direct wildlife to the crossings, mitigate the effects of the built environment and promote safety and survival by 127. Anthony Perl, (Prof., Urban Studies, Simon Fraser U.), TRANSPORT routing animals around, over and/or under roads and highways. REVOLUTIONS: MOVING PEOPLE AND FREIGHT WITHOUT OIL, 2010, 119. Based on the kind of analysis developed by M. King Hubbert, 118. James McCommons, (Prof., English, Northern Michigan U.), with input from geologists in several countries, researchers at the University WAITING ON A TRAIN: THE EMBATTLED FUTURE OF of Uppsala in Sweden have projected that the peak production of all PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE, 2009, 218. Passenger rail needs a petroleum liquids will occur by 2012. dedicated funding source, something akin to the highway trust fund, 128. Gordon Kelly, (President, Integrated Planners, Inc.), THE OIL because even when Amtrak is promised money, it rarely gets the full SANDS: CANADA’S PATH TO CLEAN ENERGY?, 2009, 4-5. This amount. Finally, the country's entire rail infrastructure should be updated and expanded with more public monies being spent to benefit both freight book suggests that Peak Oil is closer than people in the oil industry are willing to concede. Big Oil assures us that this will not happen until 2040 or and passenger trains. The freights aren't able to do this on their own. beyond. (What else can they say?) The reality is that the world is They've got a growing freight business to contend with, and then when you factor in passenger-rail demands, it makes matters worse. Public money is consuming some 31 Bb/yr (31 billion barrels of oil annually or 1,000 barrels per second) but the oil industry has not been finding replacement volumes going to have to flow into the network. of that magnitude for decades. The world is relying on about 25 declining 119. Petra Todorovich, (Dir., America2050), HIGH-SPEED RAIL: supergiant oil fields for much of its supply. INTERNATIONAL LESSONS FOR U.S. POLICY MAKERS, 2011, 23. Unlike the U.S. highway and transit programs, which rely on dedicated 129. Anthony Perl, (Prof., Urban Studies, Simon Fraser U.), TRANSPORT REVOLUTIONS: MOVING PEOPLE AND FREIGHT WITHOUT OIL, revenue streams from the federal motor fuels tax, passenger rail has no 2010, 120. The proposition that there will be a peak in oil production is dedicated source of revenue and thus relies on Congress for general fund appropriations. Prior to the passage of PRIIA, most passenger rail mostly not controversial. Oil is a finite resource, and extraction of it cannot continue indefinitely. Usually, only the date of peak production is in appropriations were made directly to Amtrak each year, but with no question and, on occasion, the reason for the peak. multiyear authorization since 2002. Numerous Amtrak officials have testified to Congress over the years that the uncertainty of these annual, 130. Gordon Kelly, (President, Integrated Planners, Inc.), THE OIL often politicized, appropriations makes planning and operating the railroad SANDS: CANADA’S PATH TO CLEAN ENERGY?, 2009, 4. Oil will still difficult. continue to flow when Peak Oil hits. There just won't be enough to meet the demand. Half of the world's oil will still be available, but there will be a 120. CHATTANOOGA TIMES FREE PRESS, Mar. 1, 2012, A5. "If the president thinks his proposal is going to [fly] for high-speed rail, he's pipe- shortage until new supplies can be brought on production. The first Peak Oil crisis will likely be short but could be followed by more serious crises, dreaming," Rep. John Mica, R-Fla., the chairman of the House depending on whether the world is willing to let the oil industry find and Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, told the same rail conference. Obama has proposed spending $2.7 billion on high-speed rail in fiscal year produce more oil in the following years. 2013, atop more than $8 billion previously provided under a stimulus bill 131. Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: that passed while Democrats controlled both houses of Congress. WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 177. We are at the peak of the petroleum interval, and, a century from now, the 121.Siena Kaplan, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group), THE RIGHT TRACK: BUILDING A 21ST CENTURY HIGH-SPEED RAIL petroleum interval will be over. As we pass the peak, we will attempt to save our economies in the face of soaring oil prices and declining oil SYSTEM FOR AMERICA, 2010, 9. America's intercity transportation supplies. How we handle the coming energy transition is one of the great system has three main components: airlines, trains and highways (including car and bus travel). For decades, the nation has invested lavishly on questions of our time. highways and airports, while passenger rail service has languished. 132. Anthony Perl, (Prof., Urban Studies, Simon Fraser U.), TRANSPORT Passenger rail service can help solve many of the problems that afflict our REVOLUTIONS: MOVING PEOPLE AND FREIGHT WITHOUT OIL, current transportation network—including traffic congestion and 2010, 111. Today's extensive oil use is a recent phenomenon. Figure 3.1 dependence on oil. Rail can provide safer, more comfortable, and often shows that more than 50 percent of the oil ever used has been consumed faster travel for many trips. And investments in passenger rail can help since 1986 and more than 95 percent of the world's total oil consumption reinvigorate America's manufacturing sector, while improving the economic has occurred since the beginning of the Second World War. The cumulative competitiveness of America's growing "megaregions." total consumption of 1.16 trillion (1012) barrels at the end of 2008 appears to be approaching about half the oil that could ever be extracted. We believe 122. Craig Canine, (Staff), ON EARTH MAGAZINE, Feb. 27, 2009. this milestone heralds the beginning of an essentially unavoidable decline in Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 from http://www.onearth.org/print/982. Publicly owned intracity light rail, metro and subway systems, and bus rapid transit the amount that can be produced—and thus consumed—in any year. have also routinely received federal matching grants. But intercity 133. Mike Snead, (Former Chair, Space Logistics Technical Committee, passenger rail services like Amtrak, which use privately owned rail American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics), SPACE REVIEW, infrastructure, have had to settle for dribs and drabs of federal funding from May 4, 2009. Retrieved Mar. 21, 2011 from one-time grants and short-lived programs for modest projects, such as http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1364/1. To highlight the difficulty adding more drop-down gates to road crossings. in finding significant additional resources of this magnitude, the much debated Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR) has an optimistic total 123. Corrine Brown, (U.S. Rep., Florida), FINDING WAYS TO ENCOURAGE AND INCREASE PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION of only about 12 billion BOE of recoverable oil. To add 3,000 billion BOE of additional proved reserves this century, a new "ANWR" must be IN PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE, Mar. 11, 2011, 21. There is a chart that discovered about every four months! Recent oil exploration history shows shows, over the past 60 years, that the U.S. has invested $1.3 trillion in highways and $84 billion in aviation, but only $37 billion in passenger rail. that such new major "finds" are now rare. Meanwhile, countries like Germany invested $104 billion in passenger rail. 134. Ron Rhodes, (Prof., Dallas Theological Seminary), THE COMING OIL STORM, 2010, 19. Even our federal government has signaled that 124. Joseph Szabo, (Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration), things are not going well. The federal Energy Information Administration HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN THE UNITED STATES: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, Oct. 14, 2009, 12. Our Federal investment in (EIA) now concedes that "all or nearly all of the largest oil fields have already been discovered and are being produced. Production is, indeed, transportation over the last 60 years has been focused primarily on clearly past its peak in some of the most prolific basins." highways, aviation, and transit. Investment in high-speed rail is an opportunity to bring balance to our transportation network. Many States have been engaged in planning for rail while they have waited for a Federal partner. When FRA took pre-applications from the States to gauge interest in our rail program, we heard from 40 States and the District of Columbia with projects exceeding $103 billion, and interest was from every region of the Country.
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135. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power 145. Bill Clinton, (Former President), BACK TO WORK: WHY WE Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, NEED SMART GOVERNMENT FOR A STRONG ECONOMY, 2011, 14. As further evidence of declining oil production we need to look at the 156. The United States already leads the world in geothermal capacity, with North Sea status. North Sea oil production peaked in 1999. Its decline was 3,100 megawatts, though Iceland and the Philippines generate a higher then predicted to be 7%, but it has been accelerating from 7% to 8.5% to percentage of their electricity with it because of their unique geology. 11%. And the number of major oil fields discovered around the world fell to Because of stimulus funding, almost 8,000 megawatts of new geothermal zero for the first time in 2003, despite an obvious increase in technological capacity were added in 2010. With the tax incentives, the price of expertise. Another disconcerting loss is occurring in Mexico where their geothermal power, at three to five cents per kilowatt hour, is highly production dropped 20% in 2006 and as one expert remarked its production competitive. Because of the projects begun since 2009, employment related is now in "freefall". This is particularly serious for Mexico as 40% of the to the geothermal sector has more than doubled, exceeding fifty thousand governments revenue comes from oil. jobs, with more on the way. 136. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power 146. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, 2011, 129. If the four most populous countries located on the Pacific Ring 15. As you can see worldwide production has been essentially flat for the of Fire — the United States, Japan, China, and Indonesia — were to last five years, with the highest peak in 2008 by a small margin. With the seriously invest in developing their geothermal resources, it is easy to world currently in recession 2009 will probably be down, so 2008 could envisage a world with thousands of geothermal power plants generating turn out to be the world peak oil year. some 200,000 megawatts of electricity, the Plan B goal, by 2020. 137. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power 147. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, 2011, 127. The geothermal potential to provide electricity, to heat homes, 54. In the first chapter I talked about the problems we face with peak oil. and to supply process heat for industry is vast. Among the geothermally rich We can debate when the actual peak will occur, whether in fact it was 2005, countries are those bordering the Pacific in the so-called Ring of Fire, or maybe 2008, or even if it is delayed further. But the one issue we cannot including Chile, Peru, Colombia, Mexico, the United States, Canada, avoid is it is a finite resource that is being consumed at a prodigious rate Russia, China, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Australia. Other well- and we will pass the peak of production at some point. The evidence is very endowed countries include those along the Great Rift Valley of Africa, strong that it is imminent. We will not know for sure until at least a year including Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, and those around the after the actual peak. Eastern Mediterranean. As of 2010, there are some 70 countries with projects under development or active consideration, up from 46 in 2007. 138. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, 148. Nicola Armaroli, (Sr. Research Scientist, Italian National Research 92. New exploration for oil will undoubtedly find some new supplies, but in Council), ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD: FROM THE OIL the meantime older fields are in serious decline. The new discoveries, even AGE TO A SUN-POWERED FUTURE, 2011, 239. Wind is the world's if they are huge, can only delay the peak, not prevent it. fastest growing electric technology. The growth of the wind sector in the period 1991-2008 was even stronger than that of the nuclear industry in its 139. Ron Rhodes, (Prof., Dallas Theological Seminary), THE COMING OIL STORM, 2010, 20. A 2004 publication produced by the Department of golden age (1961-1978). The amount of global wind capacity installed in 2009 alone (38 GW) in much higher than the new nuclear power installed in Energy affirms that world discoveries of oil peaked before the 1970s. The the decade 1999-2009. document concedes that no new major field discoveries have been made in decades. As well, "presently, world oil reserves are being depleted three 149. Daniel Botkin, (Prof., Emeritus, Ecology, U. California at Santa times as fast as they are being discovered." The document affirms that "the Barbara), POWERING THE FUTURE: A SCIENTISTS GUIDE TO disparity between increasing production and declining reserves can have ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, 2010, 151. Professor Lewis also points out only one outcome: a practical supply limit will be reached and future supply that our planet receives 120,000 billion kilowatts of energy continuously, on to meet conventional oil demand will not be available." average, from the sun. So current world energy use by people is just two- hundredths of the total) energy our planet receives from the sun. 140. Ron Rhodes, (Prof., Dallas Theological Seminary), THE COMING OIL STORM, 2010, 10. No one is precisely sure when peak oil will intrude 150. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE upon us. However, innumerable experts have affirmed that peak oil will EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC come, whether five years from now or thirty. One day we will reach a peak COLLAPSE, 2011, 118. The United States, with 35,000 megawatts of wind in the supply of cheap oil, after which we will have a dwindling supply of generating capacity, leads the world in harnessing wind, followed by China increasingly expensive oil. and Germany with 26,000 megawatts each. Texas, long the leading U.S. oil- producing state, is now also the nation's leading generator of electricity 141. William Stewart, (Attorney & Journalist), CLIMATE OF from wind. It has 9,700 megawatts of wind generating capacity online, 370 UNCERTAINTY: A BALANCED LOOK AT GLOBAL WARMING megawatts more under construction, and a huge amount under development. AND RENEWABLE ENERGY, 2010, 96-97. In 1956, a geologist named M. King Hubbert introduced a model that accurately predicted that U.S. oil If all of the wind farms projected for 2025 are completed, Texas will have 38,000 megawatts of wind generating capacity—the equivalent of 38 coal- production would peak around 1970 and decline shortly thereafter. fired power plants. This would satisfy roughly 90 percent of the current Hubbert's premise was that the production of oil (and other fossil fuels) in a particular region would follow a bell-shaped curve. After a period of residential electricity needs of the state's 25 million people. discovery, oil production rates would grow exponentially until half of its 151. Nicola Armaroli, (Sr. Research Scientist, Italian National Research reserves were exhausted. At that halfway point, production would peak, Council), ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD: FROM THE OIL plateau, and then decline. The basic premise of Hubbert's theory is now AGE TO A SUN-POWERED FUTURE, 2011, 238. A recent study widely accepted, and its bell-shaped curve projection has been used indicates that a network of land-based 2.5 MW turbines restricted to non- successfully to predict the production peaks and declines of regional fuel forested, ice-free, non-urban areas operating at as little as 20% of their rated and global mineral supplies. capacity could supply more than 40 times the current worldwide consumption of electricity and over five times the total global use of energy 142. Vikram Janardhan, (CEO, Insera Energy, LLC), ENERGY in all forms. EXPLAINED, Vol. 1, 2011, 63. Once we have consumed half of the earth's reserves—whether known or unknown at this moment in time—we will 152. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE begin a long slide on the back slope of Hubbert's Peak, and there won't be a POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST chairlift at the bottom. For nations and economies that are reliant on ever CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 166. What of the wind industry itself? increasing quantities of cheap oil, the consequences may be dire. Growth from 2000 to 2008 was 25%-30% per year. Costs have continued to fall, and the technology has spread to every continent, with high interest in 143. Martin Nicholson, (Science Journalist, M.A. in Engineering, Cambridge U.), ENERGY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 84. Asia, especially China and India. Wind has been called a "niche industry," yet it may eventually offer a cathedral of use. Beyond doubt, it is one of the Economics teaches us that when a commodity gets scarce and growth in most environmentally benign of energy technologies. supply is unable to match growth in demand then the price goes up. We are seeing evidence of this already as the price of crude oil has increased from 153. Daniel Botkin, (Prof., Emeritus, Ecology, U. California at Santa around $30 a barrel in 2004 to over $70 in 2006 and passing $140 in 2008 Barbara), POWERING THE FUTURE: A SCIENTISTS GUIDE TO although this latest price rise could be caused by geopolitical issues rather ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, 2010, 125-126. FPL states that wind energy than scarcity. installation costs $1.5-2.0 million per megawatt, in the same cost range traditionally estimated for a coal-fired power plant, but about twice the 144. Martin Nicholson, (Science Journalist, M.A. in Engineering, $800,000 cost of electrical generators powered by natural gas. (Note, Cambridge U.), ENERGY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 70. however, that in Chapter 3, "Coal," I point out that the cost of building coal- Worldwide there is an abundance of geothermal resources. Sufficient to provide all our energy needs for thousands of years — at least in theory. fired power plants is increasing rapidly, with estimates as high as $3.50 per installed watt.) Thus wind energy is cheap, working out to about $1.50-2.00 Using geothermal energy produces very little greenhouse gases although to install each watt of capacity, or about $150-200 to install enough there can be other toxic emissions in some circumstances. It generally has a very low environmental impact and requires less land area for large-scale generating capacity to run a 100-watt lightbulb indefinitely. And of course once installed, wind turbines require no fuel purchases, so FPL can produce electricity generation than wind and solar power. It is available 24 hours a electricity from wind energy for between 4.50 and 7.50 per kilowatt-hour. day so can provide baseload power and has no fuel cost.
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154. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE 163. Arjun Makhijani, (Pres., Institute for Energy and Environment POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST Research), NUCLEAR POWER, 2010, 45. The sunshine falling on rooftops CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 165. The best turbines can average 30% and parking lots alone can provide much or most of the electricity efficiency when operating, compared with 18%-20% a generation ago. requirements of the United States. Moreover, the turbines of today are modular and can be installed in a few 164. Clive Hamilton, (Prof., Public Ethics, Center for Applied Philosophy, days—cheaply, in other words—and repaired quickly. Australian National U.), REQUIEM FOR A SPECIES: WHY WE RESIST 155. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, THE TRUTH ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE, 2010, 170. The baseload 2011, 119. In Europe, which now has 2,400 megawatts of off-shore wind power myth is also used to attack solar electricity which, of course, can only online, wind developers are planning 140 gigawatts of offshore wind be generated during daylight hours. Solar thermal electricity produces steam generating capacity, mostly in the North Sea. There is enough harnessable to drive a turbine and generator. But the heat can be stored in fluids and wind energy in offshore Europe to satisfy the continent's needs seven times used at night to generate power. A vast solar thermal array is planned for over. the Sahara desert and may eventually generate a sixth of Europe's energy supply. 156. Erica Shroeder, (J.D., U. California, Berkeley School of Law), CALIFORNIA LAW REVIEW, Oct. 2010, 1640. Offshore wind power has 165. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN certain attributes that give it added benefits compared to onshore wind. TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 68-69. The Wind tends to be stronger and more consistent offshore — both benefits environmental consequences of photovoltaics are limited, and objections to when it comes to wind power generation. This is largely due to reduced the appearance of panels on the roofs of buildings or in large farms are few. wind shear and roughness on the open ocean. Wind shear and roughness The cadmium telluride used in First Solar's and some other manufacturers' refer to effects of the landscape surrounding turbines on the quality of wind panels is toxic but presents few dangers when in use in solar installations. and thus the amount of electricity produced. While long grass, trees, and buildings will slow wind down significantly, water is generally very smooth 166. Ozgur Gurtuna, (Ph.D., Energy Research, McGill U.), SPACE and has much less of an effect on wind speeds. In addition, because offshore TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE BENEFIT OF HUMAN SOCIETY AND EARTH, 2009, 517. Solar energy is following the path of wind energy and wind projects face fewer barriers — both natural and manmade — to their rapidly becoming a viable form of renewable energy from both technical expansion, offshore developers can take advantage of economies of scale and build larger wind farms that generate more electricity. and financial perspectives. The installed capacity of both solar PV and solar thermal plants is rapidly increasing. During the last decade, Europe and 157. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, Japan have invested heavily in solar energy systems and built significant 2011, 116.-117. While U.S. coal use was falling, some 300 wind farms with capacity. Although other regions of the world have been lagging behind, a generating capacity of 21,000 megawatts came online. Geothermal momentum is building rapidly, especially in the U.S. and China. generating capacity, which had been stagnant for 20 years, came alive. In 167. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, mid-2010, the U.S.- based Geothermal Energy Association announced that 2011, 122. The growth in solar cell production can only be described as 152 new geothermal power plants were being developed, enough to triple U.S. geothermal generating capacity. On the solar front, solar cell explosive. It climbed from an annual expansion of 38 percent in 2006 to an off-the-chart 89 percent in 2008, before settling back to 51 percent in 2009. installations are doubling every two years. The dozens of U.S. solar thermal At the end of 2009, there were 23,000 megawatts of PV installations power plants in the works could collectively add some 9,900 megawatts of generating capacity. worldwide, which when operating at peak power could match the output of 23 nuclear power plants. 158. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 168. Alastair Sweeney, (Dir., The Civics Channel, Canada), BLACK 2011, 118. In July 2010, ground was broken for the Alta Wind Energy BONANZA: ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS AND THE RACE TO SECURE Center (AWEC) in the Tehachapi Pass, some 75 miles north of Los Angeles, California. At 1,550 megawatts, it will be the largest U.S. wind NORTH AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE, 2010, 229. Using older silicon panels, the energy per watt is three or four times more expensive than fossil farm. The AWEC is part of what will eventually be 4,500 megawatts of fuels. The tipping point where solar energy will be cheaper than fossil fuels renewable power generation, enough to supply electricity to some 3 million homes. is definitely within five years, maybe sooner, Kurzweil predicts. 169. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE 159. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 33. One of wind's COLLAPSE, 2011, 122. Historically, photovoltaic installations were small- primary but often underestimated virtues is that it delivers electricity without such financial volatility. The output of a wind farm may be scale—mostly residential rooftop installations. Now that is changing as utility-scale PV projects are being launched in several countries. The United uncertain, but the cost is not. And, of course, wind power is independent of States, for example, has under construction and development some 77 political intervention — countries that invest in wind are less reliant on the two or three countries that provide much of the world's natural gas. utility-scale projects, adding up to 13,200 megawatts of generating capacity. 170. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 160. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN 2011, 122. Germany, with an installed PV power generating capacity of TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 31. Wind provides a almost 10,000 megawatts, is far and away the world leader in installations. little less than 4 percent of the European Union's electricity today, four times the average for the world as a whole. The trade body for European Spain is second with 3,400 megawatts, followed by Japan, the United States, and Italy. Ironically, China, the world's largest manufacturer of solar wind thinks that this figure will rise to about 13 percent in 2020 and cells, has an installed capacity of only 305 megawatts, but this is likely to continue to increase rapidly thereafter. This increase would mean installing around 10 gigawatts of wind capacity each year over the next decade or so, change quickly as PV costs fall. which equates to thousands of new turbines annually, but since the new 171. Patrick Moore, (Co-Founder of Greenpeace), NUCLEAR POWER, capacity installed in 2008 alone was almost 9 gigawatts, the target seems to 2010, 14. Nuclear energy also makes economic sense. The cost of be well within reach. producing nuclear energy in the United States is on par with coal and hydroelectric. 161. Kimberly Keilbach, (Journalist), GLOBAL WARMING IS GOOD FOR BUSINESS: HOW SAVVY ENTREPRENEURS, LARGE 172. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE CORPORATIONS AND OTHERS ARE MAKING MONEY WHILE POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST SAVING THE PLANET, 2009, 95. According to Resch, the recent growth CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 129. Commercial nuclear power is a in the solar energy industry infused over $2 billion into the United States mature global industry, and growing. As of 2009, there were 436 nuclear economy and created 6,000 jobs. Resch credited United Solar, a thin-film power stations operating in thirty countries, supplying 15% of the world's manufacturer, with creating hundreds of jobs in Michigan, a state which has electricity to over 1 billion people. This percentage has been stable for two suffered high unemployment. United Solar Ovonic, LLC manufactures decades, revealing that nuclear power has expanded to keep pace with the UNISOLAR products and, with over 1,300 employees, claims to be "the worldwide rise in electricity use. For several countries, it provides well over world's leader in thin film solar technologies and the manufacture of thin half of all power. film solar electric modules and laminates." 173. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE 162. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 58-59. As the solar CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 130. Nuclear is cheap to operate and panel industry grew, encouraged by enormous subsidies in Germany and maintain and can operate at very high capacities—over 90% of maximum, other countries, the supply of pure silicon did not keep pace. Significant compared to 60%-85% for coal and 70%-85% for natural gas. Fuel costs shortages in 2008 pushed the price of solar panels up. But the price rise was have been lower and more stable than those of natural gas, whose prices followed by a sharp decline as large numbers of new factories in China and quadrupled between 2002 and 2007. New nuclear plants are designed to last elsewhere began producing unprecedented volumes of silicon in 2009, and longer without major upgrades—up to sixty years, vs. thirty to forty years some of the major markets, such as Spain, saw sharp reductions in the for gas, coal, and most renewables. And they can generate as much or more financial incentives to install P V systems. By the last quarter of 2009, the power than the largest fossil plants, up to 1.6 GW or more, while saving 7-8 prices of P V modules were more than 20 percent below the levels of mid- million tons a year of carbon emissions. 2008.
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174. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN 184. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE POWER, 2009, 138. In the U.S. about 20% of the electric power is MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR produced by 104 nuclear power reactors with an average output of almost ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 136-137. The problem of food displacement for 900 megawatts per reactor or 93-GWe (gigawatts) total. If this were the production of biofuels hangs in the background like menacing clouds increased by 250-GWe, nuclear power could fill all current U.S. electricity that could suddenly become a tornado. In fact, with an oil price higher than requirements. $70 per barrel, most farmers have an extraordinary incentive to produce biofuels instead of food. Both the Food and Agricultural Organization of the 175. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST United Nations (FAO) and the OECD have warned about the danger of this cloud. A rapid increase in the biofuel sector could lead to an increase in the CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 127. In 2009, the U.S. had 104 price of food between 20 and 50 percent in the coming decade. operating reactors, producing 20% of its total electricity and roughly 2,000 tons of radioactive waste, mainly in solid form. Two thousand tons sounds 185. Andrew Morriss, (Prof., Business, U. Alabama), THE FALSE like a lot, if you're putting toxic material in your garage. Yet in the same PROMISE OF GREEN ENERGY, 2011, 69. Increased demand for corn for year, some 500 U.S. coal-fired power plants donated to posterity 115 ethanol has additional "multiplier" effects on other food and feed million tons of ash, sludge, and airborne effluents from sea to shining sea, commodities by increasing the price of all corn-based products, including much of it bearing the noxious tidings of mercury, cadmium, lead, arsenic, feed for animals and many foods consumed by human beings. Ethanol- and even radiation. related demand for corn has been linked to increases in the price of eggs, milk, meat, cereal, candy bars, and any product containing corn-based 176. Clive Hamilton, (Prof., Public Ethics, Center for Applied Philosophy, Australian National U.), REQUIEM FOR A SPECIES: WHY WE RESIST sugars or starches to name a few. THE TRUTH ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE, 2010, 172. For all of its 186. Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: faults and dangers (waste storage, nuclear proliferation and nuclear WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 160. The terrorism), it is an established technology whose dangers can be contained, destruction of the Amazon rain forest for sugarcane is matched on the other if not resolved. Compared to the threat of runaway global warming, the side of the world by the destruction of Indonesian rain forests for palm potential damage to the environment and human health from nuclear trees. As well, the push for biofuels is a major contributor to increased food accidents is small. prices and is contributing to hunger around the world. 177. Patrick Moore, (Co-Founder of Greenpeace), NUCLEAR POWER, 187. Gwynne Dyer, (Journalist), CLIMATE WARS: THE FIGHT FOR 2010, 12. Climate change is now high on the global agenda, and I believe SURVIVAL AS THE WORLD OVERHEATS, 2010, 106. If the subsidies nuclear energy holds the greatest potential to arrest the dangers we face are not cut back and the farmland restored to food production, there almost from global warming. It is the only non-greenhouse-gas-emitting power certainly will be an absolute shortage of food in the world in only a very source capable of effectively replacing fossil fuels and satisfying growing few years. In that case, the poor will be starving so that the rich can drive demand. their automobiles on what they imagine is a more eco-friendly fuel. One cannot imagine a political environment less conducive to global cooperation 178. Alex Flint, (Sr. Vice President, Nuclear Energy Institute), NUCLEAR POWER, 2010, 28. The environmental benefit of this nuclear generation is on climate-change issues. substantial. Nuclear power plants generate over 70 percent of all carbon- 188. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen free electricity in the United States. By using nuclear power instead of fossil College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, fuel — based plants, the U.S. nuclear energy industry prevented 681 million 2010, 54. Biofuel is perhaps the biggest energy scam, ever. People hate to metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions in 2006. For perspective, the hear statistics like this, but biofuels present what energy insiders call a volume of greenhouse gas emissions prevented at the nation's 104 nuclear negative net energy balance. That means they require more energy to power plants is equivalent to taking 96 percent of all passenger cars off produce than is contained in the final product. But even ignoring this America's roadways. science, if we were to use all of the corn grown in the US to produce motor vehicle fuel, without regard to what that would do to food prices, it would 179. Alex Flint, (Sr. Vice President, Nuclear Energy Institute), NUCLEAR still be less than 20 percent of the gasoline demand — and a lot of the world POWER, 2010, 28. The potential contribution nuclear power can make to reducing forecast greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector in the would go hungry. coming decades is extraordinary. But even as we work to build the next 189. Ron Rhodes, (Prof., Dallas Theological Seminary), THE COMING fleet of advanced reactors for electricity production, we also are developing OIL STORM, 2010, 45. The very process of producing fuel from America's reactors that will provide energy security and environmental benefits well crops expends more energy than it produces. We do not receive a good beyond the traditional electric sector role. energy return on investment. Ultimately it is self-defeating. 180. Donald Dudziak, (Fellow, Los Alamos National Laboratory), 190. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF NUCLEAR POWER, 2010, 77-80. If the spent reactor fuel now stored at CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL nuclear power plants in the U.S. — some 50,000 tons — were recycled WARMING HOAX, 2011, 158. Can we grow our way out of an energy instead of disposed of as nuclear "waste," it could be converted into new deficit? Federal legislation with such titles as the Renewable Fuels Act reactor fuel and used again to provide clean electricity. This would help (2005) and the Biofuels Security Act (2006) are both misleading with conserve the world's uranium resources. regard to ethanol, the primary biofuel. First, it really isn't renewable when you consider that nearly as much fossil fuel-generated energy is required to 181. Andrew Morriss, (Prof., Business, U. Alabama), THE FALSE produce it as it actually yields. Alternatively, if all the energy used to plant, PROMISE OF GREEN ENERGY, 2011, 11. Biodiesel has fewer problems fertilize, harvest, and process the biofuel came from the ethanol produced, it than ethanol, but it still has some serious drawbacks. Like ethanol, biodiesel generally has a lower energy content per gallon (about 8-9 percent less), would displace a gasoline consumption equivalent to only about 3.5 percent. This is about the same amount that the Natural Resources Defense reducing the mileage for vehicles used it and can absorb water from the Council (NRDC) estimates might be saved by inflating tires properly. atmosphere, reducing the efficiency of the fuel, producing more smoke in exhaust, freezing fuel lines in the winter, and damaging engines. Most 191. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF notably, biodiesel "gels" at higher temperatures than conventional diesel. CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX, 2011, 159. But if we were to produce enough ethanol 182. Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: to replace gasoline altogether, it would require that about 71 percent of all WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 161. Biofuels are completely outclassed by oil and natural gas and are Stone Age US farmland be dedicated for energy crops.8 By way of illustration, let's just think about distilling all of our present US corn production into that solutions with no prospects. What's worse is that as oil and natural gas go 180-proof grain alcohol—ethanol. That would only displace, at most, about into decline, agricultural production, which depends on carbon-based fuels to succeed, will struggle too, and it will become obvious that this system 14 percent of the gasoline we currently guzzle. In 2007, ethanol consumed approximately one-fourth of all US corn production. In 2008, that amount has very limited value. It is a shame that we are creating paroxysms in grew to about one-third, and the percent will continue to rise. The 2007 agriculture, contributing to a global food crisis, and causing terrible environmental damage trying to develop an industry that is a nonstarter. amount was estimated to have offset US gasoline consumption by 3.5 percent while corn costs had doubled over a 2-year period. 183. Andrew Morriss, (Prof., Business, U. Alabama), THE FALSE 192. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF PROMISE OF GREEN ENERGY, 2011, 65. Even if biofuels produce net CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL usable energy, it does not follow that their use would necessarily reduce GHG emissions. First, nitrogenous fertilizers, which are used as inputs to WARMING HOAX, 2011, 159. Two professors at the University of Minnesota's Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy, C. Ford grow energy crops, are a primary source of nitrous oxides, a GHG that is Runge and Benjamin Senauer, estimate that filling a 25-gallon tank of an pound-for-pound 300 times more damaging as a GHG than is carbon dioxide. Second, cultivation of any crop generally involves disturbing the SUV with pure ethanol requires more than 450 pounds of corn. That would be enough calories to feed one person for a year. soil. Globally, there is more carbon stored in the soil than in the atmosphere. Disturbing the soil leads to decomposition or oxidation of the stored carbon. That results in carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere.
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193. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF 202. Petra Todorovich, (Dir., America2050), HIGH-SPEED RAIL: CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL LESSONS FOR U.S. POLICY MAKERS, 2011, 19- WARMING HOAX, 2011, 161. Yet there is growing evidence that biofuels 20. High-speed rail is the only available mode of long-distance travel that may actually release more CO2 emissions than conventional petroleum- currently is not dependent on motor fuels. High-speed rail is powered by based gasoline does. As reported in the journal Science, "Corn-based electricity, which is not without environmental problems depending on its ethanol . . . instead of producing a 20 percent savings, nearly doubles source. If it is powered by electricity generated from fossil fuels, such as greenhouse emissions over 30 years . . . Biofuels from switch-grass, if coal or natural gas that discharge harmful greenhouse gas emissions, then grown on US corn lands, increase emissions by 50 percent." This is because its environmental benefits are limited. However, electricity is generally biofuel markets encourage farmers to level forests and convert wilderness considered an improvement over petroleum-generated power and provides a areas into farmland, which would otherwise serve as CO2 sinks. crucial advantage as the United States aims to reduce its dependence on foreign oil. 194. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL 203. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE WARMING HOAX, 2011, 162. So just how green is ethanol? Its EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC production requires tremendous amounts of fossils, water, and agricultural COLLAPSE, 2011, 46. As atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise, we can land that would be more productive if used to grow food crops. At best, expect even higher temperatures in the future. The earth's average ethanol could replace but a small percentage of fossil-fuel demands, and temperature has risen in each of the last four decades, with the increase in then it could only be cost competitive through high tax—supported the last decade being the largest. As a general matter, temperature rise is subsidies. projected to be greater in the higher latitudes than in equatorial regions, greater over land than over the oceans, and greater in the interior of 195. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN continents than in coastal regions. TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 176. Unsurprisingly, turning huge quantities of corn into fuel has tightened the world market for 204. Rick Bass, (Journalist), THE HEART OF THE MONSTER: WHY foods. Prices rose dramatically in 2007-2008 and at the time of writing are THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST & NORTHERN ROCKIES MUST NOT still well above levels of five years ago. One International Monetary Fund BECOME AN EXXONMOBIL CONDUIT TO THE ALBERTA TAR survey indicated that the use of corn for biofuels was responsible for about SANDS, 2010, 25. The summer of 2010 was the hottest on record in some 70 percent of the increase in the world price for corn between 2004 and parts of the world and the wettest in others. A tornado struck Brooklyn and 2008. Queens, a flood in Pakistan killed 2000, deadly dispersants joined the rains on the Gulf Coast. And Governor Schweitzer's new friend, ExxonMobil, 196. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN while committing acts of climate warfare globally, has paid millions on TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 179. Although ethanol made from crops may help reduce dependence on imported oil, it probably junk science and billions on lobbyists and campaign contributions, causing U.S. lawmakers to lag a half century or so behind the rest of the world in does very little to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. Growing wheat response to global warming. in Europe or corn in the American Midwest requires large inputs of fossil fuel energy to produce the fertilizer, look after the growing crop, and 205. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE process the grain into sugars and then ethanol. Moreover, when it breaks EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC down chemically in the soil, artificial fertilizer produces a small amount of COLLAPSE, 2011, 5. On May 26, 2010, the official temperature in nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas over three hundred times as damaging as Mohenjo-daro in south-central Pakistan reached 128 degrees Fahrenheit, a carbon dioxide. record for Asia. Snow and glaciers in the western Himalayas, where the tributaries of the Indus River originate, were melting fast. As Pakistani 197. Lea Terhune, (Staff), STATE DEPARTMENT DOCUMENTS, Mar. glaciologist M. Iqbal Khan noted, the glacial melt was already swelling the 5, 2008. Retrieved Mar. 25, 08 from Lexis/Nexis Academic Universe. Production of corn ethanol has risen markedly, which is good for corn flow of the Indus even before the rains came. growers, but has a downside: rising prices of foods that depend on corn. It 206. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE also cuts into profit margins of livestock ranchers and manufacturers of EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC corn-based products. Acknowledging the problem, Bush said, "The best COLLAPSE, 2011, 46. The number of record highs was itself a record, thing to do is not to retreat from our commitment to alternative fuels but to topping the previous total of 15 set in 2007. When a site in south central spend research and development money on alternatives to ethanol made Pakistan hit 128 degrees Fahrenheit on May 26th, it set not only a new from other materials." Cellulosic ethanol made from switchgrass and national record, but also a new all-time high for Asia. woodchips was an example he gave, adding that the U.S. Department of Energy is investing nearly $1 billion in this research. Other technologies 207. Daniel Perlmutter, (Prof., Chemical Engineering, U. Penn.), THE receiving Bush administration support are hybrid vehicles, both electric CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, 2011, 64. Clear trends show up when the data are averaged over 5-10-year periods. An assessment of plug-in and hydrogen fuel cell-powered varieties. surface temperature measurements released by NASA (National 198. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN Aeronautics and Space Administration),' for example, reported that the TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 193-194. The scale of decade from 2000 to 2009 was the warmest on record. Their data covering the task is enormous. To meet current U.S. gasoline demand, the amount of the past 30 years showed a trend in temperature rise of 0.2°C (0.4°F) per biomass needed will almost certainly require about 200 million acres, an decade. area larger than the farmland devoted to crops today and about the same space as occupied by U.S. national forests, or the whole of Texas. If 208. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 2011, 46. Within the United States, numerous cities on the East Coast cellulosic ethanol is used to power fuel cells providing homes and offices suffered through the hottest June to August on record, including New York, with electricity and heat, even more land would be needed. Philadelphia, and Washington. After a relatively cool summer in Los 199. Daniel Perlmutter, (Prof., Chemical Engineering, U. Penn.), THE Angeles, the temperature there on September 27th reached an all-time high CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, 2011, 87. Searchiger has of 113 degrees before the official thermometer broke. At a nearby site, calculated' that burning corn ethanol as fuel produces twice the GHG however, the thermometer survived to register 119 degrees, a record for the emissions as gasoline that is alcohol free, if the emissions from land region. What U.S. climate data show us is that as the earth has warmed, conversion are included in the count. He argues that there is no benefit to record highs are now twice as likely as record lows. the use of biofuels when the full cost to the environment is included in the accounting. This position has been accepted by the California Air Resources 209. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE Board {CARE)," which is charged with putting into practice California's EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, 2011, 6. The earth's rising temperature is also melting polar fuel standard, which requires a 10% reduction in GHG emissions from ice sheets and mountain glaciers. If the Greenland ice sheet, which is transportation fuel by the year 2020. The federal government is also likely to be drawn into this controversy, since a 2007 law requires the melting at an accelerating rate, were to melt entirely, it would inundate the rice-growing river deltas of Asia and many of the world's coastal cities. It is Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to calculate "life cycle greenhouse the ice melt from the mountain glaciers in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan gas emissions" for renewable fuels. Plateau that helps sustain the dry-season flow of the major rivers in India 200. Ron Rhodes, (Prof., Dallas Theological Seminary), THE COMING and China—the Ganges, Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers—and the irrigation OIL STORM, 2010, 45. John F. Walvoord and Mark Hitchcock note that systems that depend on them. America in 2006 utilized 14 percent of the country's corn production to produce ethanol, and even then it made little difference regarding our 210. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE dependence on fossil fuels. That figure rose to 20 percent in 2007, with little EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, 2011, 49. If ice disappears entirely in summer and is reduced contribution to meeting the staggering need. To use any more of the in winter, the Arctic region will heat up even more, ensuring that the country's food supply to produce ethanol could create food shortages worldwide — and the supply would still not meet the demand. Greenland ice sheet will melt even faster. Recent studies indicate that a combination of melting ice sheets and glaciers, plus the thermal expansion 201. American Association of State and Highway Transportation Officials. of the ocean as it warms, could raise sea level by up to 6 feet during this (2009). INTERCITY PASSENGER RAIL, 2009, 3. According to the latest century, up from a 6-inch rise during the last century. edition of the Transportation Energy Data Book by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory: In 2005, Amtrak consumed 17% less energy per passenger-mile than domestic airlines and 21.4% less energy than cars.
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211. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE 220. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC 2011, 6. The earth's rising temperature is also melting polar ice sheets and COLLAPSE, 2011, 50. Americans need not go far from home to see mountain glaciers. If the Greenland ice sheet, which is melting at an massive glacier melting. In 1910, when Glacier National Park in western accelerating rate, were to melt entirely, it would inundate the rice-growing Montana was created, it had some 150 glaciers. In recent decades, these river deltas of Asia and many of the world's coastal cities. It is the ice melt glaciers have been disappearing. By the end of 2009, only 27 were left. In from the mountain glaciers in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan Plateau that April 2010 park officials announced that 2 more had melted, leaving only helps sustain the dry-season flow of the major rivers in India and China — 25. It appears to be only a matter of time until all the park's glaciers are the Ganges, Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers — and the irrigation systems that gone. depend on them. 212. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE 221. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC 2011, 77. In Latin America, expanding deserts are forcing people to move COLLAPSE, 2011, 51. Yao Tandong, a leading Chinese glaciologist, in both Brazil and Mexico. In Brazil, some 250,000 square miles of land are reports that glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau in western China are now affected, much of it concentrated in the country's northeast. In Mexico, melting at an accelerating rate. Many smaller glaciers have already many of the migrants who leave rural communities in arid and semiarid disappeared. Yao believes that two thirds of these glaciers could be gone by regions of the country each year are doing so because of desertification. 2060. If this melting of glaciers continues, Yao says it "will eventually lead Some of these environmental refugees end up in Mexican cities, others to an ecological catastrophe." cross the northern border into the United States. U.S. analysts estimate that Mexico is forced to abandon 400 square miles of farmland to desertification 213. Nancy Lord, (Prof., English, Kenai Peninsula College), EARLY WARMING: CRISIS AND RESPONSE IN THE CLIMATE-CHANGED each year. NORTH, 2011, 2. Just in the last fifty years, Alaska temperatures averaged 222. Martin Nicholson, (Science Journalist, M.A. in Engineering, across the state and through the year have risen by 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit. Cambridge U.), ENERGY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 92. Winter temperatures have risen more sharply, by an average of 6.3 degrees. A rise in the average temperature of a few degrees might not sound like much. After all, the temperature can vary by more than that day to day 214. Ron Nash, (Educational Consultant), RATIONAL THINKING, 2009, without any great problem. But even the rise of 0.7°C over the last 100 16. The great ice shelves in Antarctica, that have been attached to the years has created some alarming changes in climate. Arctic temperatures Antarctic continent for thousands of years, are now breaking away. An occasional phenomenon in the Pacific, that only occurs during exceptionally have risen and the extent of the Arctic sea ice has shrunk. Average sea levels have risen. There have been widespread changes in rainfall in some hot years, El Nino, a reversal of the ocean currents off Peru, is becoming parts of the world. There are fewer cold days and nights with more hot days more and more frequent. It has many secondary effects, such as drought in Australia and disruption of the Monsoons in South East Asia. There is also and nights and more intense tropical cyclones. evidence from spacecraft; the weather and observation satellites. Weather 223. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN satellites are registering a definite, actual, warming trend; the average TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 4-5. Global warming temperature of the whole planet is steadily rising. skeptics still exist in large numbers, but the majority of people, perhaps observing the increasingly obvious evidence from the natural world, accept 215. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, that rapid and unpredictable climate variations are happening around them. 2011, 48. Temperatures are rising much faster in the Arctic than elsewhere. Forests are more vulnerable to fire, storms are increasing in intensity, ice Winter temperatures in the Arctic, including Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia, have climbed by 4-7 degrees Fahrenheit over the last half- packs and tundra are melting, and drought is causing starvation in water- stressed countries. century. This record rise in temperature in the Arctic region could lead to changes in climate patterns that will affect the entire planet. 224. Ross Garnaut, (Prof., Economics, Australian National U.), THE AUSTRALIAN, Mar. 11, 2011, 12. The review said that to ignore the 216. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 2011, 49. Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has been shrinking for the last few wisdom of mainstream science and hold on to the hopes held out by the small minority of genuine scientific sceptics, let alone to give credence to decades. Some scientists now think the Arctic Ocean could be free of ice the wild claims of climate change dissenters, would be to hide from reality. during the summer by 2015 — less than five years from now This worries climate scientists because of the albedo effect. When incoming sunlight It would be imprudent beyond the normal limits of human irrationality. strikes the ice in the Arctic Ocean, up to 70 percent is reflected back into 225. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for space and as little as 30 percent is absorbed as heat. As the Arctic sea ice Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE melts, however, and the incoming sunlight hits the much darker open water, MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR only 6 percent is reflected back into space and 94 percent is converted into ALTERNATIVES, 2010, xvii. That our planet is suffering from the effects heat. This creates a positive feedback — a situation where a trend, once of our species' dependence on fossil fuels is unquestionable. The most under way, feeds on itself. striking evidence that we have abused our planet is the amount of accumulated carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. From ice samples 217. William Stewart, (Attorney & Journalist), CLIMATE OF taken at different depths, we know that for about ten thousand years until UNCERTAINTY: A BALANCED LOOK AT GLOBAL WARMING the mid-eighteenth century, the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide AND RENEWABLE ENERGY, 2010, 19. In addition to melting sea ice, the Earth's land surface ice — in the form of glaciers and ice sheets — has remained fairly stable at about 280 parts per million. In the last 250 years, however, the concentration jumped to about 390 parts per million, and it is also contracted. Because glaciers are many magnitudes smaller than ice still increasing. sheets, and because they are dispersed throughout the world (on every continent except Australia), glaciers are seen as an important barometer of 226. Trip Pollard, (Sr. Scientist, Environmental Law Center), AGENDA climate change. According to the World Glacier Monitoring Program, FOR A SUSTAINABLE AMERICA, 2009, 366-367. Global warming is which has measured glaciers around the world since 1980, more glacier ice our most urgent environmental threat. The Intergovernmental Panel on has been lost than gained in every year since 1989 — with the rate of loss Climate Change (IPCC) concluded in February 2007 that evidence of global more than doubling since the 1990s. warming is now "unequivocal," that there is at least a 90 percent certainty that human activities have caused warming, and that potentially massive 218. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power and long-lasting changes will result. As the U.S. Supreme Court recently Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, 20. In the June, 2007 issue of National Geographic Magazine the featured noted, "[t]he harms associated with climate change are serious and well recognized." The United States generates about a quarter of global story was, "The Big Thaw". Its sub heading stated, 'Its no surprise that emissions of carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas; one-third of these warming climate is melting the world's glaciers and polar ice, but no one expected it to happen this fast." It described the process of the melting of emissions is from transportation. Transportation is the largest end-use sector emitter of CO2, and transportation emissions increased 25 percent between the ice on Greenland and how the process is being accelerated by the 1990 and 2005. feedback loops in the process. 219. Timothy Kusky, (Prof., Natural Science, St. Louis U.), 227. Daniel Perlmutter, (Prof., Chemical Engineering, U. Penn.), THE ENCYCLOPEDIA OF EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE, 2010, 673. The CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, 2011, 63. Given all these considerations, CO2 still remains the focus of attention, and because CO2 is Greenland ice sheet is thinning rapidly along its edges, losing an average of the prime player in global warming, it is vital to examine the record to see if 15-20 feet (4.5-6 m) in the past decade. In addition, tidewater glaciers and the small ice shelves in Greenland are melting an order of magnitude faster its concentration in the atmosphere has changed in recent years. Reliable data are available going back to 1958. In graphed form it is sometimes than the Antarctic ice sheets, with rates of melting between 25-65 feet (720 referred to as the Keeling curves in honor of the chemist who developed the m) per year, a rate that is apparently increasing. About half of the ice lost from Greenland is through surface melting that runs off into the sea. The measuring techniques. As is evident in Figure 4.3, the concentration has increased by about 20% over the last half century, reaching a level of 379 other half of ice loss is through calving of outlet glaciers and melting along ppm in the year 2005, and continuing to rise at a rate of about 2 ppm each the tidewater glaciers and ice shelf bases. year. The periodic fluctuations in the concentrations are caused by the seasonal Changes during each year, as plants absorbs CO2 during their growth period and as winter furnaces burn more fuel to support their longer periods of heating use.
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228. Martin Nicholson, (Science Journalist, M.A. in Engineering, 238. Mark Yachmetz, (Assoc. Administrator, Federal Railroad Cambridge U.), ENERGY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 90. Administration), EXPANDING PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE, Hrg., June Carbon dioxide accounts for about 70% of greenhouse gas emissions. 22, 2009, 7. Rail is already among the cleanest and most efficient energy- Carbon dioxide is emitted when fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas efficient modes of transportation. Future intercity passenger rail networks are burned. This might be to make electricity or to run our motor vehicles. It including high-speed rail using new clean diesel electric power can further is also increased by the clearing and burning of vegetation. Once released, enhance rail's advantages. Rail transportation has generally been associated carbon dioxide can have an effective lifetime in the atmosphere of hundreds with smart growth because it can foster higher-density development than of years. has been typically associated with highways and airports. Rail is uniquely capable of providing both high-speed intercity transportation and its own 229. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power efficient local access. Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, 165. To help you understand the sources of greenhouse gases we find that 239. John Diaz, (Staff), SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE, Jan. 22, 2012, power generation is 24%, with other energy related systems 5%, F3. It's hard to find a place in the world that has regretted an investment in transportation is 14%, building heating is 8%, industry accounts for 14%, passenger rail. California's coming era of population increases, strains on with the remainder being non-energy emissions with land use 18%, airport capacity and limits on carbon emissions only magnify the need for a agriculture 14%, and 3% from waste. fast, green, inviting way to get from north to south. 230. Craig Canine, (Staff), ON EARTH MAGAZINE, Feb. 27, 2009. 240. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 from http://www.onearth.org/print/982. According AMERICA'S TOP FIVE TRANSPORTATION HEADACHES -- AND to CHSRA environmental-impact studies, California's proposed system will THEIR REMEDIES, Jan. 2009, 5. The U.S. construction sector has been save 12.7 million barrels of oil in 2030 by reducing air and auto travel. It particularly hard hit by unemployment. Swift implementation of a will also eliminate 12 billion pounds of CO2 emissions -- the equivalent of significant program of transportation improvements can support good- taking a million vehicles off the roads. paying jobs and boost economic productivity. In December 2008, the national unemployment rate reached 7.2 percent overall and 15.3 percent in 231. Craig Canine, (Staff), ON EARTH MAGAZINE, Feb. 27, 2009. Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 from http://www.onearth.org/print/982. Trains, the construction sector. even painfully slow ones powered by diesel engines, are inherently efficient 241. Jason Altmire, (U.S. Rep., Pennsylvania), EXPANDING compared with other ways of moving people and cargo. The reasons have to PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE, Hrg., June 22, 2009, viii. Investment in the do with basic physics. Steel wheels on steel tracks have much lower rolling expansion of passenger rail service will also encourage economic growth resistance than rubber tires on pavement. One train uses less energy to through the creation of highly skilled, good paying jobs. In March 2009, the overcome wind resistance than the number of trucks or cars that would be Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the roles of the unemployed swelled needed to haul an equal load the same distance. A single freight train can to 13.2 million. When part-time and discouraged workers who want full- take as many as 280 trucks off the highway and uses a quarter as much fuel time jobs are included, the number of unemployed/underemployed workers as an average truck to move a ton one mile. Amtrak passenger trains, hardly increases to 24.3 million. In Pennsylvania, the Bureau of Labor Statistics paragons of up-to-date technology, consume on average 18 percent less reported that 499,911 people were unemployed in April 2009 (7.8 percent), energy per passenger mile than airplanes and 27 percent less than cars. So compared to 290,266 in December 2007 (4.6 percent). policies that encourage and expand rail transport will yield net reductions in both oil dependence and greenhouse gas emissions. 242. Petra Todorovich, (Dir., America2050), HIGH-SPEED RAIL: INTERNATIONAL LESSONS FOR U.S. POLICY MAKERS, 2011, 17. 232. Alberto Alvarez, (Prof., Engineering, Comillas U., Madrid), High-speed rail creates thousands of construction-related jobs in design, RAILWAYS 2010, 35. Precisely because of its speed, the high-speed train engineering, planning, and construction, as well as jobs in ongoing is capable of attracting a significant proportion of travelers away from the maintenance and operations. airplane and the private car. Therefore, the main advantage of introducing a 243. Colin Peppard, (Staff, Natural Resources Defense Council), THE high-speed rail line does not stem from replacing the conventional train: ROAD TO RECOVERY: INVESTING IN A NEW TRANSPORTATION typically, the high-speed train prevents the emission of 3 kg of CO2 per passenger in relation to the conventional train, whereas on the route as a POLICY, Mar. 2011. Retrieved Feb. 18, 2012 from http://www.nrdc.org/energy/transportation/files/roadtorecovery.pdf. The whole, the introduction of high speed has a leverage effect that prevents the Apollo Alliance finds that dramatically increasing yearly investment in emission of 31 kg of CO per high-speed rail passenger. 2 public transit and intercity rail to $40 billion would generate 3.7 million 233. Alberto Alvarez, (Prof., Engineering, Comillas U., Madrid), new jobs and boost annual gross domestic product by $60 billion. Such RAILWAYS 2010, 35. In terms of energy consumption and emissions, the investments also have a ripple effect, benefitting, for example, small towns great advantage of the high-speed train is that it uses electric traction, which where buses are manufactured, or farms that rely on port cities for access to means fewer greenhouse gas emissions and a lower contribution to the the global marketplace. To leverage our investments we should focus on exhaustion of fossil fuels than other modes of transportation. It shares this fixing crumbling roads and bridges as well as building new public advantage with the conventional electric train. transportation as described above. We should also leverage investments by creating an infrastructure bank. 234. David Peterman, (Analyst in Transportation Policy, U.S. Congressional Research Service), HIGH SPEED RAIL: BACKGROUND 244. James Kunstler, (Journalist), WAITING ON A TRAIN: THE AND ISSUES, 2010, 16. Another major benefit of HSR according to EMBATTLED FUTURE OF PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE, 2009, XI. supporters is that it uses less energy and is relatively less polluting than Rebuilding the nation's passenger railroad has got to be put at the top of our other modes of intercity transportation. For example, the California High priority list. We had a system not so long ago that was the envy of the Speed Rail Authority contends that HSR uses one-third the energy of air world; now we have service that the Bulgarians would be ashamed of. The travel and one-fifth the energy of automobile travel. tracks are still lying out there rusting in the rain, waiting to be fixed. The job doesn't require the reinvention of anything—we already know how to do 235. Siena Kaplan, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group), THE it. Rebuilding the system would put scores of thousands of people to work RIGHT TRACK: BUILDING A 21ST CENTURY HIGH-SPEED RAIL SYSTEM FOR AMERICA, 2010, 15. Passenger rail already emits less at meaningful jobs at all levels. global warming pollution than cars or planes, and these savings will 245. Paul Nussbaum, (Staff), PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER, Aug. 10, 2010, increase as the United States develops a high-speed rail network. The A1. A recent report by Duke University researchers estimated the number Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)/ Center for Neighborhood Technology of jobs that U.S. rail spending would create: 24,000 construction and (CNT) study showed that today, passenger rail travel emits 60 percent less manufacturing jobs per $1 billion in capital investment, and 41,000 carbon dioxide per passenger mile then cars and 66 percent less than planes. operation and maintenance jobs per $1 billion in operating investment. In The faster diesel trains that would likely be used to upgrade current service Spain, the government's ambitious push to build Europe's largest high-speed would emit slightly more emissions, but would still emit much less than network has created 600,000 jobs in the last five years, according to cars and planes and would draw more passengers than current passenger officials of Adif, the Spanish rail-infrastructure firm. rail. 246. Michael Fletcher, (Staff), WASHINGTON POST, Jan. 16, 2012, A1. 236. James McCommons, (Prof., English, Northern Michigan U.), A national high-speed rail network would not only support tens of WAITING ON A TRAIN: THE EMBATTLED FUTURE OF thousands of construction and manufacturing jobs but also would get PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE, 2009, 15. Already, trains are green in Americans out of their cars, revitalize struggling downtowns, and spare the comparison to other transportation modes and do not depend on environment millions of tons of carbon emissions and travelers untold hours technologies that have yet to be developed. We only need to build more wasted in traffic or in airport terminals waiting out delays. tracks, improve the tracks we have, and run more trains—restoring some of the rail capacity that was abandoned for highways, cars, and planes. 247. Joseph Szabo, (Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration), HIGH-SPEED PASSENGER RAIL: HOW FAST WILL IT GET HERE? 237. James McCommons, (Prof., English, Northern Michigan U.), June 23, 2009, 14. America's transportation system is the lifeblood of the WAITING ON A TRAIN: THE EMBATTLED FUTURE OF economy. Providing a robust rail network can help serve the needs of PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE, 2009, 14-15. If green technologies really national and regional commerce in a cost-effective, resource-efficient are the future of America—if we really are moving into an age of constraint manner, by offering travelers and freight convenient access to economic where energy is no longer cheap and carbon outputs must be limited—then centers. Moreover, investments in HSIPR will not only generate high- rail has clear advantages and will be critical to the country's economic skilled construction and operation jobs, but it can potentially also provide a future. steady market for revitalized domestic industries producing such essential components as rail, control systems, locomotives, and passenger cars.
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248. William Millar, (President, American Public Transportation 256. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE Association), RAILROAD AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC TRANSPORTATION PROGRAMS: REFORMS AND IMPROVEMENTS COLLAPSE, 2011, 111. The United States has a "high-speed" Acela TO REDUCE REGULATORY BURDENS, Hrg., Apr. 7, 2011, 136. From Express that links Washington, New York, and Boston, but unfortunately a business perspective, creating a high-speed rail network in the United neither its average speed of 70 miles per hour nor its reliability remotely States will not only produce new passenger rail networks, but it will create approach those of the trains in Japan, Europe, and now China. hundreds of thousands of private sector, construction and manufacturing jobs and generate domestic business growth. Studies conducted by the U.S. 257. Carolyn Maloney, (U.S. Rep., New York), DEVELOPING TRUE HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP Conference of Mayor show that expenditures for high-speed rail SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 56. construction are estimated to support 24,000 jobs for each billion dollars of investment. Reports from the California High-Speed Rail Authority project America's fastest trains crawl compared to the high speed rail trains used in Europe and Asia. Acela averages only 83 miles per hour along the 600,000 full time construction jobs will be created over the course of Northeast corridor, while their trains race by at more than 180 miles per building their corridor and that 450,000 permanent new jobs will result from high-speed rail related economic growth over the next 25 years. hour. Where once American ingenuity brought rail service through the wilderness from coast to coast, in recent decades we have systematically 249. William Millar, (President, American Public Transportation failed to invest in a modem rail system. Instead of developing energy- Association), RAILROAD AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS efficient mass transit, we have allowed our rail system to deteriorate. TRANSPORTATION PROGRAMS: REFORMS AND IMPROVEMENTS TO REDUCE REGULATORY BURDENS, Hrg., Apr. 7, 2011, 135. It is 258. Mark Reuter, (Staff, Wilson Quarterly), U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 98. America's passenger trains are slowpokes. Even Amtrak's self- more important than ever for the U.S. to invest in its infrastructure as the declared high-speed Northeast Corridor between Boston and Washington efficient movement of people and goods is essential for sustained economic growth and recovery. Investing in high-speed rail projects will produce new does not qualify as high speed by world standards (defined by the International Union of Railways as regular operation at or above 155 mph passenger rail networks that will create hundreds of thousands of private on new or renovated track or 124 mph on older track). The Acela Express sector, construction and manufacturing jobs as well as stimulate domestic business growth that will generate additional jobs in related consumer- reaches 150 mph on a short stretch of reconditioned track in Rhode Island, but otherwise is forced to go much slower because of aging infrastructure. driven industries. Overall, Acela trains average only 67mph between Boston and New York 250. Julia Pulidindi, (Senior Associate for Infrastructure, National League City. South of New York, Acela trains operate at a top speed of 125 mph of Cities), (2011). HIGH SPEED RAIL, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 13, 2012 from and an average of 77 mph. Compare this with the 217 mph maximum and www.nlc.org/find-city-solutions/research-innovation/ infrastructure/high- 146 mph average of Spain's 386-mile line between Madrid and Barcelona, speed-rail. The impetus for pushing forward on HSR development is and the gap between U.S. and European railroads becomes apparent. primarily to create jobs and promote economic development. Other benefits include alleviating pressures on highway systems and congested airports by 259. Mark Reuter, (Staff, Wilson Quarterly), U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 98. Outside of the Northeast Corridor, there are only four routes providing an affordable and alternative transportation choice. However, it’s where Amtrak trains can run faster than 79 mph: Los Angeles-San Diego, not just funding streams that need to be identified but also determining the best routes and getting public buy-in so that this new mode of transportation New York City-Albany, Philadelphia-Harrisburg, and a 100-mile segment in Michigan. Elsewhere, trains are restricted to 79 mph because locomotives will achieve all the benefits that are anticipated. and track are not equipped with signal systems that prevent collisions. After 251. Bill Shuster, (U.S. Rep., Pennsylvania), DEVELOPING TRUE HIGH accounting for speed-restricted curves, snaillike crawls through junctions, SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP SITTING ON stops for opposing trains, and other obstacles thrown in their path, Amtrak OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 69. Crippling congestion trains average no better than 50 mph between terminals—and much less if and poor roads cost businesses and commuters almost $115 billion a year in unscheduled delays are counted. The result is that train service is slower wasted time and fuel — that Is up from $24 billion in 1982 (adjusted for today than it was in the 1940s, when "streamliners" touted for their speed— Inflation). And Americans spend more than 4 billion hours per year stuck in such as the Super Chief, 20th Century Limited, Denver Zephyr, and traffic. It is clear the time for investment in high-speed rail and Hiawatha—routinely topped 90 to 100 mph between station stops. While Improvements to our intercity passenger rail system Is now. the rest of the world has advanced, America's passenger rail has stalled, if not reversed direction. 252. Siena Kaplan, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group), THE RIGHT TRACK: BUILDING A 21ST CENTURY HIGH-SPEED RAIL 260. Craig Canine, (Staff), ON EARTH MAGAZINE, Feb. 27, 2009. SYSTEM FOR AMERICA, 2010, 9. An effective intercity transportation Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 from http://www.onearth.org/print/982. Passenger system carries business travelers, tourists, and others reliably and efficiently and freight trains that share the same tracks -- which is to say, nearly all from one city to another. America relies almost entirely on airplanes and intercity and long-distance trains in the United States -- are generally roads for intercity transportation, including trips that could be better served limited by the Federal Railroad Administration to speeds no greater than 79 by rail. The lack of effective passenger rail service in much of the country mph. The speed limit goes up to 110 mph for those few passenger trains adds to congestion on our roads and in our airports—leading to frustration, equipped with special signaling systems that engineers can read in their delay and large losses to the economy. locomotive cabs. Without these, train operators must watch for stationary signals located beside the tracks, just as they've done since the early 253. Tony Dutzik, (Analyst, Public Interest Research Group Education nineteenth century. To go faster than 110 mph, a train equipped with signals Fund), HIGH-SPEED RAIL AROUND THE WORLD AND ITS PROMISE FOR AMERICA, Fall 2010, 17. A U.S. high-speed rail network in its cab must run on tracks that have no level crossings with roads. That is, all road intersections have to be "grade-separated" from the tracks by means could help offer alternatives to congestion on the nation's overcrowded of bridges or underpasses. The Amtrak Acela Express, which runs between highways. Congestion problems in 2007 cost Americans more than $87 billion in delay and fuel costs, according to the Texas Transportation Boston and Washington, D.C., via New York, is the only train in the United States authorized to exceed the 110-mph limit. For short portions of its Institute. Americans spent 4.2 billion hours of extra time sitting in traffic — route, where track and traffic conditions allow, the Acela can go up to 150 the equivalent of 2.1 million work-years, or a year's work from the entire civilian labor force of the state of Alabama. Meanwhile, the 2.81 billion mph, although it averages less than 80 mph. gallons of fuel wasted in traffic in 2007 "could fill 370,000 18-wheeler fuel 261. John Mica, (Chair, House Committee on Transportation and delivery trucks — bumper to bumper from Houston to Boston to Los Infrastructure), DEVELOPING TRUE HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE Angeles." NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 2. High speed trains move in Europe at an 254. John Mica, (Chair, House Committee on Transportation and average speed of 186 miles per hour. Amtrak's Acela chugs along an Infrastructure), DEVELOPING TRUE HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE average between D.C. and New York at 83 miles an hour. On Amtrak NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 3. Amtrak, I can tell you—this is my 19th yesterday, on my ride up here, they travelled at the lightning speed, an average speed of 65 miles an hour between New York and Boston. By year of following Amtrak—will never be capable of developing the comparison to Europe and Asia, the Acela is moving at a snail's pace. Corridor to its true high speed potential. The task is too complex and too large scale, and can only be addressed with the help of private sector 262. Susan Fleming, (Dir., Physical Infrastructure Issues, U.S. Government expertise, those who have done this before, those who can do it in the Accountability Office), HIGH SPEED RAIL: BACKGROUND AND future. And also, they will never get the funding for it with the plan they ISSUES, 2010, 69-70. About 70 percent of Amtrak's train miles are over have currently proposed. tracks owned by other railroads. Top speeds are limited by track conditions. Amtrak's trains are generally limited to top speeds of 79 miles per hour off 255. David Peterman, (Analyst in Transportation Policy, U.S. the Northeast Corridor and up to 150 miles per hour on the corridor. Congressional Research Service), HIGH SPEED RAIL: BACKGROUND AND ISSUES, 2010, 1-2. There are a handful of routes in the United States where track has been improved to allow service at up to 110 mph, and there are a few places along Amtrak's Northeast Corridor where speeds of up to 150 mph are achieved for a relatively short distance. But there are no dedicated high speed lines in the United States comparable to those in Europe and Asia, on which trains travel at sustained speeds of over 150 mph.
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263. Steve Yetiv, (Prof., Political Science, Old Dominion U.), CHRISTIAN 272. Frank Busalacchi, (Secretary of Transportation, State of Wisconsin), SCIENCE MONITOR, Feb. 1, 2010. Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 from Nexis. HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN THE UNITED STATES: OPPORTUNITIES AND While America fumbles, China has seen the light. It plans to build 42 high- CHALLENGES, Oct. 14, 2009, 91. Since the 1940s, this country has speed rail lines across 13,000 kilometers (some 8,000 miles) in the next disinvested in passenger rail while countries in Europe and Asia have made three years. The Chinese Railway Ministry says that rail can transport 160 passenger rail the centerpiece of their transportation systems. Instead, we million people per year compared with 80 million for a four-lane highway. invested in our interstate highway and aviation networks. Now, we have In addition to the central goal of decreasing oil use and pollution, China well-developed aviation and highway networks, albeit with challenges of seeks to bolster its economy with investment in rail and also to satisfy the their own, but our nation's rail network needs significant investment after a demands for mobility of its growing middle class. For America, as fewer half century of disinvestment. people opt for gas-guzzling air or car travel, a high-speed rail system would hit US oil dependence right where it counts: in the gas tank. 273. National League of Cities. HIGH SPEED FINANCE FOR HIGH- SPEED RAIL? Oct. 18, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 13, 2012 from 264. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE http://www.nlc.org/news-center/nations-cities- EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC weekly/articles/2010/october/high-speed-finance-for-high-speed-rail. COLLAPSE, 2011, 111. China is spending $120 billion on high-speed rail Europe and Asia forge ahead on high-speed rail with visions that already in 2010, whereas the United States is spending $1 billion. While the United supersede this: a Chinese bullet train just reached 415 km/h (258 mph) on a States allocated $8 billion for high-speed rail from its stimulus package, standard run from Shanghai, breaking a previous record China Railways China allocated $100 billion of its stimulus funding to this cause. It thus had itself set only months ago. Under the Amtrak plan, U.S. trains will take comes as no surprise that by 2012 China will have more high-speed rail an entire generation to reach speeds three-fifths of what its international track mileage than the rest of the world combined. competition is already exceeding. 265. Ed Rendell, (Former Governor, Pennsylvania), DEVELOPING TRUE 274. Staff Report of the House Committee on Transportation and HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP Infrastructure, HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN THE UNITED STATES: SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 9. The only OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, Oct. 14, 2009, viii. One major way that high speed rail really works is with dedicated tracks. It can't share deficiency in our national transportation system is the absence of high- tracks with freight rail, it can't share tracks with commuter rail, because it speed rail. High-speed rail offers a safe, efficient, and convenient passenger would never achieve the speeds necessary. You have to build dedicated transportation alternative that promotes economic competitiveness and tracks, and that means right of way. If China can spend $300 billion in ten environmental quality. Despite wide recognition that high-speed rail can years, I believe we can spend $100 billion in a lot less than 30 years. significantly reduce congestion on highways and airways, decrease our dependence on foreign oil, and reduce greenhouse emissions, the United 266. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC States offers no high-speed passenger rail service unlike other major industrialized nations. Moreover, the United States invests only a fraction of COLLAPSE, 2011, 110. While the future of transportation in cities lies with what European and Asian countries have invested in the development of a mix of light rail, buses, bicycles, cars, and walking, the future of intercity travel belongs to high-speed trains. Japan's bullet trains, operating at up to high-speed rail operations. 190 miles per hour, carry nearly 400,000 passengers a day. On some heavily 275. Corrine Brown, (U.S. Rep., Florida), ROLL CALL, June 7, 2010. used intercity lines, trains depart every three minutes. Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 from Nexis. It is no secret that the U.S. lags woefully behind the rest of the world when it comes to developing high- 267. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC speed rail. Japan, the nation that unveiled the world's first high-speed rail system in 1964, has a 1,350-mile network and is already at work building a COLLAPSE, 2011, 110. Over the last 46 years, Japan's high-speed trains line that will connect Tokyo with Osaka at speeds of more than 300 mph. have carried billions of passengers in great comfort without a fatal crash. Late arrivals average 6 seconds. If we were selecting seven wonders of the France, which holds the world speed record for steel wheels on steel rail - 357 mph - used its high-speed rail system to pull entire regions from modern world, Japan's high-speed rail system surely would be among them. isolation, ignite growth and remake quiet towns into thriving tourist 268. Michael Bloomberg, (Mayor, New York City), DEVELOPING TRUE destinations. After inaugurating its high-speed rail system in 1981, France HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP developed a 1,180-mile network and plans to add 1,500 miles. The system SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 34. Other carries a remarkable 100 million passengers annually. countries are trying to do the same thing, create other modes of transportation that are much more efficient, much more rapid and answer 276. Daniel Wood, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, Feb. 8, the needs of a global world. And Asia, Europe and the Middle East, they're 2011. Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 from Nexis. To backers, the benefits of the plan are twofold. First, it would give a much-needed boost to America's building bullet trains and we're just sitting here. What is America waiting spending on infrastructure. And second, it would provide jobs for the for? I don't want to spend money we don't have. I'm sympathetic to the cost of debt. I'm sympathetic to encumbering our descendants with the cost of economic recovery. "If you look at the last 100 years, it has been large public-works projects which have pulled our nation out of every recession," building things. But this is not wasted money. Infrastructure is one of those says Barry LePatner, author of "Too Big to Fall: America's Failing things that gives us a future. Infrastructure and the Way Forward." Mr. LePatner notes that the building 269. Petra Todorovich, (Dir., America2050), HIGH-SPEED RAIL: of the Erie Canal opened the Northeast in 1819, the transcontinental railroad INTERNATIONAL LESSONS FOR U.S. POLICY MAKERS, 2011, 6. As connected the populated East to the developing West, and the interstate of January 2011, trains in 11 countries already operate at speeds up to 185 highway system built under Eisenhower "all opened up vast reservoirs of mph, and several can reach 215 mph the current international standard for trade and economic investment." He suggests that studies show $1 billion new lines. The world's fastest passenger train in commercial operation, in spent on infrastructure remediation produces between 18,000 and 34,000 Shanghai, China, reaches top speeds of 260 mph using magnetic levitation jobs. "Twenty-five to 35 percent of that then comes back in taxes, and the technology. other multiplies in geometric ratios as spending on food, clothing, shelter, and other goods," he adds. 270. Bill Shuster, (U.S. Rep., Pennsylvania), DEVELOPING TRUE HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP SITTING ON 277. Siena Kaplan, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group), THE OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 69. Unfortunately, the RIGHT TRACK: BUILDING A 21ST CENTURY HIGH-SPEED RAIL United States Is far behind the international curve on high-speed rail. Our SYSTEM FOR AMERICA, 2010, 11. Building a modern passenger rail friends in Europe have been at work for decades on an impressive high- network will be a boost to America's economy. Besides the jobs created in speed rail network. Japan is working on a new high-speed train that will upgrading our railways, making connections between our cities quicker and carry passengers at up to 310 miles per hour between Osaka and Tokyo, more convenient will better equip the country for the 21st century economy. augmenting their existing bullet trains. And China Is spending nearly $300 278. Thomas Hart, (Vice President, U.S. High Speed Rail Association), billion to develop 8,000 miles of new high-speed track by 2020. RAILROAD AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS TRANSPORTATION 271. Michael Cabanatuan, (Staff), SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE, May PROGRAMS: REFORMS AND IMPROVEMENTS TO REDUCE 9, 2010, A1. Today, the Shinkansen, which means "new trunk line" in REGULATORY BURDENS, Hrg., Apr. 7, 2011, 98. This national HSR Japanese, covers about 1,400 miles on five lines. Another 400 miles of system will revive our economy and manufacturing sector by creating extensions are under construction and 300 miles are planned. Three private millions of new jobs. It will be the catalyst for the next national real estate rail companies run the trains at speeds up to 186 mph on tracks built and boom as well as significantly reduce our dependence on foreign oil, shrink maintained by the national government. Japan's high-speed trains run with our national carbon footprint, and create efficient mobility that is safe and an efficiency, frequency and reliability unimaginable to those familiar with affordable for its passengers. Aside from these great benefits, is the desire Amtrak or U.S. commuter railroads. The sleek trains with the distinctive to keep America more competitive through the constant development and long noses depart as often as 14 times an hour - and they're almost always ingenuity of its transportation systems as President Obama and Vice on time. Over the past 45 years, the average delay is less than one minute - President Biden often remark. and that includes stoppages because of floods, earthquakes, accidents and natural disasters. Rail officials also note their safety record: There's never been a passenger fatality on the Shinkansen. "The Shinkansen is very fast, very comfortable - you can relax," said Soichiro Takeda, a marketing manager for a construction corporation, who rides it at least once a month. "And it's never late. Time is very sacred here."
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279. Ed Rendell, (Former Governor, Pennsylvania), DEVELOPING TRUE 286. Ed Rendell, (Former Governor, Pennsylvania), DEVELOPING TRUE HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 8. Let me SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 88-89. say, President Obama, as Congressman Rahall said, deserves credit as the Making significant investments in the Northeast Corridor to achieve true first American president to put significant dollars into passenger rail; over high speed rail must be our number one priority. No other corridor in the 10 and a half billion dollars distributed in the last 18 months. It was a great country has the population density and ridership as well as the economic start, and the President and Secretary LaHood deserve praise for going wherewithal to result in successful and likely profitable, high speed rail line. down that road. But I think we need to get real. The way we are doing high The reduction in congestion in our airspace as well as in emissions from speed rail right now in America will amount to nothing; It will amount to taking more cars off the road are important benefits that must be not be nothing for two reasons. One, it's too diffuse. You cannot do high speed rail ignored. The travel time savings in reducing the time to get from politically. In the first allocation, the Federal Government gave $7.9 billion Washington to New York to Boston will also greatly enhance our economic to 36 states. In the second, $2.5 billion to 23 states, but for 54 separate productivity. We must embrace a bold vision for nobility in the 21st projects. It won't work. It's not enough money to make a dent in any project. Century and high speed rail must be a vital part of that new vision. The Northeast Corridor will demonstrate the value of these investments to our 280. Michael Bloomberg, (Mayor, New York City), DEVELOPING TRUE HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP entire nation. SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 74. Funding 287. Michael Bloomberg, (Mayor, New York City), DEVELOPING TRUE for high-speed rail projects has been divided across 36 states, spreading our HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP money so thinly that we run the risk of achieving nothing at all. In fact, the SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 35. High current Federal plan allots just over I percent of all high-speed rail spending speed rail in the Northeast would be a boon for our region and country in for the Northeast. That simply doesn't make sense. Especially because other ways, as well. It would generate tourism and travel, raise property Acela is the only profitable line run by Amtrak and the Northeast is the only values, cut pollution and our dependence on foreign oil; and by reducing corridor where there's demonstrated high demand for high-speed rail. congestion on our highways and our airports and on our commuter trains, it will increase economic activity. We estimate that high speed rail would 281. Bill Shuster, (U.S. Rep., Pennsylvania), DEVELOPING TRUE HIGH generate more than $7 billion of economic activity and create 100,000 new SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 69. Unfortunately, Instead jobs by the year 2040. of focusing on key corridors, scarce federal dollars have been spread too 288. Michael Bloomberg, (Mayor, New York City), DEVELOPING TRUE thin among too many different projects, leading to Incremental progress that HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP could slow our already delayed entrance into high-speed rail. Perhaps the SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 74. High- biggest missed opportunity was the failure to invest In the Northeast speed rail in the Northeast would be a boon for our region and our country Corridor, which, for the most part was kept out of the selection process, in other ways. It would generate travel and tourism, raise property values, Failing to Invest in the critical Northeast Corridor will ensure continued and cut pollution and dependence on foreign oil. And by reducing congestion in our nation's mast densely populated region and on the corridor congestion on our highways, at our airports and on our commuter trains it that presents the best opportunity for true high-speed rail and profitable would increase economic activity. We estimate that high-speed rail would service. generate more than $7 billion in economic activity and create about 100,000 new jobs by 2040. Because when businesses and industries are brought 282. C. Kenneth Orski, (Editor, Innovation NewsBriefs), closer together, they inevitably see greater profits, creativity, and INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTOR, Mar. 30, 2011. Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 productivity. from Nexis. The $53 billion initiative was seeded with an $8 billion "stimulus" grant and followed by an additional $2.1 billion appropriation 289. Petra Todorovich, (Dir., America2050), DEVELOPING TRUE HIGH out of the regular federal budget. But instead of focusing the money on SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP SITTING ON improving rail service where it would have made the most sense -- in the OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 31. The necessary precursor dense, heavily traveled Northeast Corridor between Boston and Washington to private investment and implementation is agreement on the vision. And -- the Obama Administration sprinkled the money on 54 projects in 23 for this, we ask for your leadership. We ask for your support of a bold states. vision for the Northeast Corridor. And we ask for you to work with the Northeast states and Amtrak and the business community to agree on a 283. Thomas Hart, (Vice President, U.S. High Speed Rail Association), DEVELOPING TRUE HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST practical strategy for accommodating the 21st century transportation needs of the Northeast and national economy. CORRIDOR --STOP SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 28. We've all heard of the advantages of the Northeast Corridor. It 290. Carolyn Maloney, (U.S. Rep., New York), DEVELOPING TRUE is a demographic region for high speed rail development, and it will spark HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP investment by the private sector. However, it's not without challenges that SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 56. The the Northeast Corridor has an opportunity for high speed rail. The states Northeast Corridor is a perfect place to launch high speed rail, and there are along the proposed routes, as Governor Rendell knows all too well, have a great reasons far commuters to choose high speed rail over other modes of combined deficit of over $45 billion. They are currently dealing with transportation. The Northeast corridor is one of the most heavily used widespread deteriorating infrastructure. railroad routes in the nation. The Northeast Corridor's stations are conveniently accessible in city centers, making them easier to reach for 284. Ed Rendell, (Former Governor, Pennsylvania), DEVELOPING TRUE HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP business travelers than the airport. Rail passengers avoid the delays incurred by airplane travelers who must go through security and can expect long SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 85. Earlier waits on the tarmac before their planes take off Furthermore, rail travel is this month America 2050 released a report which studied potential high speed rail corridors of 600 miles or less around the country and scored them far faster and less stressful than driving. based on regional and city population size and density, employment 291. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen concentrations, rail transit accessibility, air travel markets and the College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, composition of job markets by sector. The report found that high speed rail 2010, 70-71. In confronting the peak oil issue, there is one indisputable fact works in very specific conditions, primarily in corridors of 100-600 miles that should tell the reader much: no peak oil alarmist prediction has to date where major employment centers are connected. Based on these criteria, it's proven remotely accurate. You might think that a 100 percent failure rate no surprise that the highest ranked corridor was Washington to New York would lead peak oil alarmists to show a little more humility. with Boston to New York a close second. 292. Brian Dunning, (Computer scientist & Founder of Skeptoid), OIL, 285. Ed Rendell, (Former Governor, Pennsylvania), DEVELOPING TRUE 2010, 137. Generally, what tends to happen in any industry, is that by the HIGH SPEED RAIL: IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR --STOP time an existing resource runs out, inventive scientists have already come SITTING ON OUR FEDERAL ASSETS, Hrg., Jan. 27, 2011, 86. The up with something better. When a production peak looms (be it oil, Northeast Corridor is the nation's densest and most economically productive phosphorus, silicon, or anything), this provides a kick in the pants to with its 55 million people and a $2 trillion economy. Its population density accelerate development. is roughly 12 times the national average and The Wall Street Journal 293. Alastair Sweeney, (Dir., The Civics Channel, Canada), BLACK reported in 2008 that it was the world's second largest mega-region — BONANZA: ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS AND THE RACE TO SECURE behind greater Tokyo. If the Northeast was an independent country, it would represent the fifth largest economy in the world. Additionally, the NORTH AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE, 2010, 5. The U.S., in particular, needs this oil — imports from Canada have doubled over the past Northeast Corridor moves more than 259 million passengers and 14 million decade. Canada now fills about a quarter of the U.S. oil needs, exporting car-miles of freight per year. over 80 million barrels a month, almost as much as Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Nigeria combined. 294. Alastair Sweeney, (Dir., The Civics Channel, Canada), BLACK BONANZA: ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS AND THE RACE TO SECURE NORTH AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE, 2010, 218. Perhaps trumping all other factors against the peak oil argument is the very real security that a stable supply of Athabasca oil gives to North America and the world. Having a trillion barrels of supply in a friendly location and available at $60 a barrel and up, means that no dictatorial regime will be able to hold the world to ransom.
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295. Jason Schwarz, (Strategist, Lone Peak Asset Management), OIL, 2010, 303. Andrew Morriss, (Prof., Business, U. Alabama), THE FALSE 125. A trio of oil companies led by Chevron Corp. has tapped a petroleum PROMISE OF GREEN ENERGY, 2011, 54. Another problem associated pool deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico that could boost U.S. reserves by with wind energy is that the most favorable locations for wind power are more than 50 percent. A test well indicates it could be the biggest new often not accessible by the existing electrical grid. According to the DOE, it domestic oil discovery since Alaska's Prudhoe Bay a generation ago. would require an additional 12,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines Chevron estimated the 300-square-mile region where its test well sits could costing $60 billion (undiscounted) to increase the potential contribution of hold up to 15 billion barrels of oil and natural gas. wind to national electricity production to 20 percent by 2030. 296. Phil O’Keefe, (Prof., Economic Development & Environmental 304. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF Management, Northumbria U.), THE FUTURE OF ENERGY USE, 2010, CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL 117. In 2000 the US Geological Survey estimated oil reserves at some 3 WARMING HOAX, 2011, 165-166. Studies have shown that as many as trillion barrels of oil, which includes unconventional resources. This forty-four thousand birds, including golden and bald eagles, have been includes a reserve value of 1.3 trillion barrels of conventional reserves. killed by turbines in the Altamont Pass east of San Francisco over 2 Other authors have suggested that total reserves could be as high as 5 decades.33 One reason appears to be that prey animals tend to take shelter trillion barrels. These differences are important as it influences the debate at the turbines and multiply, serving as attractive bait for raptors. over Peak Oil, a debate that reflects concern that at some time oil and gas 305. James Lovelock, (Prof., Chemistry, Oxford U.), THE VANISHING will run out as they are non-renewable resources. The Peak Oil concept was FACE OF GAIA: A FINAL WARNING, 2010, 127. Were these wind first advanced by Marion King Hubbert. Hubbert argued, based on an analysis of production and consumption figures in the US, that consumption farms truly efficient and capable of resolving our power needs, I might be persuaded to grit my teeth and endure their ugly intrusion, but in fact they would exceed production at around 1970 and the world production would are almost useless as a source of energy. It would take one thousand square peak around 2000. miles of countryside to provide enough land for a i gigawatt wind-energy 297. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen source. The wind blows only 25 percent of the time at the right speed to College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, generate a useful quantity of electricity; therefore this monster would need 2010, 82. The USGS estimates that the area north of the Arctic Circle alone the back-up of a near full-sized fossil-fuel power station to supply may have reserves of 1.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 90 billion electricity whenever the wind blew too much or too little. barrels of oil or around 22 percent of the world's undiscovered energy 306. Andrew Morriss, (Prof., Business, U. Alabama), THE FALSE resources. It also estimates that just one offshore basin east of Greenland PROMISE OF GREEN ENERGY, 2011, 56. Although solar PV is could contain over 110 billion of barrels of oil — about 42 percent of Saudi Arabia's current proven reserves. projected to grow faster than other forms of solar energy, current technical analyses suggest that the costs of current solar PV installations far exceed 298. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for their benefits. Indeed, no reasonable valuation of the benefits of GHG Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE reductions would result in positive estimates for the total net benefits from MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR solar PV. ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 6. Currently, the most credible studies estimate 307. Joseph Natowitz, (Prof., Engineering, Texas A&M U.), OUR total global proven reserves of petroleum to be about 1.2 trillion barrels, ENERGY FUTURE: RESOURCES, ALTERNATIVES, AND THE enough to satisfy current consumption needs for thirty-nine years. Adding the 1.4 trillion barrels of recoverable reserves extends the limit to eighty-six ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 189. Although no greenhouse gas is emitted during operation of a photovoltaic cell, this is not currently the case for its years. The figures on recoverable reserves exclude crude oil that costs more fabrication. Silicon cell technology requires a lot of energy. It is estimated than $18 per barrel to extract. This dramatically underestimates the real total. that, for crystalline silicon, four to five years of exposure to the sun are needed to reimburse the energy necessary for their manufacturing. 299. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for 308. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 9. I believe that the availability of oil will not be a MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 160. The silicon photovoltaic solar cell is the problem if advanced technologies for exploration and production are most widespread system for producing electricity from solar power today. applied on a vast scale to old and new areas of the planet. Critics may argue that while there may actually be plenty of oil left underground, the "easy" Unfortunately, it has an insurmountable cost/yield problem that creates an efficiency limitation. A top-quality commercial photovoltaic module can and cheap oil has gone forever. This view is partially true, but it is also true transform only about 13-15 percent of the solar energy it absorbs into that today's difficult oil will become tomorrow's easy oil, thanks to the economies of applying currently expensive technologies on a large scale. In electrical energy, mainly because the materials in the cells capture and convert only a narrow band of solar frequencies. the 1970s, North Sea oil was considered among the most difficult and expensive oil on our planet. Only a decade from its initial production, its 309. Andrew Morriss, (Prof., Business, U. Alabama), THE FALSE costs had been halved. PROMISE OF GREEN ENERGY, 2011, 6. Producing solar PV panels can involve considerable hazardous waste that requires disposal; the larger land 300. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for footprint of solar panel farms increases their environmental impact; and the Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE sunny regions best suited for solar power are often environmentally MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 8. Over the decades, new exploration and sensitive deserts. extraction technologies have greatly increased both our ability to explore 310. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for the subsoil and the amount of petroleum that we can collect from it. This Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE has brought good fortune to countries that adopted these sophisticated MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR technologies, and limited the potential of those that did not. In areas of the ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 155. In theory, capturing just a minimal part world where advanced technology is used largely by private companies, as would be enough to supply all the electricity we need, without changing the in the United States and the North Sea, the recovery rate exceeds 50 climate, damaging the environment, or exhausting the resource. Yet today, percent. By contrast, in most Arab countries, the Russian Federation, and solar energy does not even cover one one-thousandth of the primary energy other major oil-producing countries, it is less than 25 percent. consumption of our planet. Even in those countries where it generates the most electricity (Germany, Japan, and the United States), solar numbers are 301. Vikram Janardhan, (CEO, Insera Energy, LLC), ENERGY EXPLAINED, Vol. 2, 2011, 12. There are numerous benefits to utilizing insignificant, less than 1 percent of all primary energy. Even these meager percentages would not be possible without public subsidies and ad hoc wind energy—environmental and otherwise—but there are a few regulations that the three countries have put in place to encourage the use of drawbacks. Wind critics point to bird and bat deaths, soil erosion at wind farms, and the need for backup generation. There is also a good deal of solar energy. concern over wind farms' aesthetic impact on so-called "view sheds." Upon 311. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for further investigation, however, most of these criticisms can be dismissed. Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE For example, while birds and bats do occasionally collide with wind MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR turbines, the number of these animals killed each year by house cats far ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 95-96. However irrational or exaggerated, the exceeds those killed by turbine blades. Soil erosion can be largely avoided multifaceted fear of nuclear power (fears of reactor accidents, of radioactive if sound landscaping practices are observed. waste, of environmental contamination, of terrorist attacks, etc.) is a formidable obstacle to its development. It is an economic paradox that only 302. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for the poorest countries or developing countries can build a nuclear reactor Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE relatively easily. Except for Japan, it is almost impossible in most MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 149. This intermittence causes other problems. industrialized countries. First, the electrical grid must be capable of withstanding significant power 312. Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: swings, which do not occur with on-demand energy sources. This problem WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 168. becomes critical when installed wind capacity exceeds roughly 10 percent Since the disasters at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, very few nuclear of total electricity production, because on average for one-third of the time, power plants have been commissioned in the Western world. Only two new there will be too much wind-powered electricity, and for two-thirds of the plants have been commissioned in America since 1973. time, there will not be enough.
EVIDENCE BAYLOR BRIEFS 95
313. Daniel Botkin, (Prof., Emeritus, Ecology, U. California at Santa 323. Stanley Feldman, (Former Professor, Stanford U.), GLOBAL Barbara), POWERING THE FUTURE: A SCIENTISTS GUIDE TO WARMING AND OTHER BOLLOCKS, 2009, 43. It is reasonable to ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, 2010, 272. Conventional nuclear power conclude that the world has warmed in the past hundred years and this has plants cannot make America energy-independent at a reasonable cost. The accelerated slightly between 1970 and 1998, after a cold spell in the 1940s supply of uranium ore is too limited, and as world demand for it increases, and 1950s. This acceleration has now flattened off and there has been no the price will rise rapidly. At present, nuclear power plants are also among significant warming since the El Nino peak of 1997; indeed, world the more expensive to build. temperatures have not increased since 1998. 314. Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: 324. Stanton Friedman & Kathleen Marden, (Nuclear Physicist & WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 165. The International Dir., Mutual UFO Network), SCIENCE WAS WRONG, 2010, mining and enrichment of uranium and the disposal of nuclear wastes both 156. A turning point may have occurred when BBC News published an present huge problems, and when we add them into the mix the nuclear article by Paul Hudson in October 2009 entitled "What Happened to Global equation looks quite different. Ignoring the mining, purification, processing, Warming?" The BBC had previously been fully behind the "Kill CO2" and waste disposal costs, the electricity generated by nuclear power plants movement, but now Hudson noted that for the last 11 years we have not can be delivered for as little as one or two cents per kilowatt hour. Fully observed any increase in global temperatures (and that the global climate costed, however, it is by far the most expensive source of electricity that we models did not forecast it), even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas have. thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise. Note that, simply put, the temperature of the world has not risen for 11 315. Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: years. WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 169. Political difficulties, unresolved problems of waste disposal, and the very 325. Stanley Feldman, (Former Professor, Stanford U.), GLOBAL long lead times before plants go into production have relegated the nuclear WARMING AND OTHER BOLLOCKS, 2009, 61. A fall in temperature or industry well down on the list as a financial investment over the last twenty- a return to an ice age would be a calamity for mankind. It would use up the five years. Investors have learned to view the nuclear industry to be about limited reserves of energy more rapidly; it would reduce the amount of rain as attractive as, well, radiation poisoning. The nuclear industry is notorious and water available globally and expose vulnerable populations to the risk for paying back late, generally underperforming, and proving more of deaths from hypothermia. dangerous than promised—and it has developed a lousy credit rating as a 326. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF result. CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL 316. Daniel Botkin, (Prof., Emeritus, Ecology, U. California at Santa WARMING HOAX, 2011, xi. The March 2006 Time magazine cover story Barbara), POWERING THE FUTURE: A SCIENTISTS GUIDE TO "Global Warming: Be Worried, Be Very Worried" warned of impending ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, 2010, 98-99. There are 441 nuclear power climate doom that would result in melting polar caps, rising oceans, and plant reactors in the world. A recent conference about them held in South other catastrophes. If any worry is warranted, think about the next overdue Africa reported 220,000 tons of spent fuel—nuclear waste—worldwide Ice Age that scientific "experts" predicted only a few decades earlier. Then since nuclear power production began in the 1950s. The International hope that the cooling period we are currently experiencing will only be Atomic Energy Agency puts it at about 300,000 tons. A 2006 international brief. Understand that the real impetus behind the cooked numbers and conference on nuclear waste, held by the Organization for Economic Co- doomspeak of the global warmers has little to do with the state of the operation and Development's Nuclear Energy Agency, put the figure much environment and much to do with shackling capitalism and transforming the higher, at more than 2.2 million tons. This last number works out to three- American way of life in the interests of global wealth redistribution ("social quarters of a pound of radioactive waste for every man, woman, and child in justice"). the world, whether or not they had access to electricity generated by nuclear 327. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF power. CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL 317. Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: WARMING HOAX, 2011, 6. During October 2008, Oregon temperatures WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 165-166. mid-month dipped to record lows, and Boise, Idaho, received its earliest- The second major issue with uranium is the problem of nuclear waste ever recorded snowfall. December 2008 witnessed 3.6 inches of snow in the disposal, and this has become a game of "pass the radioactive parcel." No Las Vegas Valley, the most to have fallen at that time of year since 1938, government wants to be left holding this particular political hot potato when when record keeping began. Houston witnessed its earliest-ever recorded the music stops. snowfall on December 4, 2009. 318. Sherwood Ross, (Journalist), NUCLEAR POWER, 2010, 18. In 328. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF reality, not only are vast amounts of fossil fuels burned to mine and refine CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL the uranium for nuclear power reactors, polluting the atmosphere, but those WARMING HOAX, 2011, 6. A blizzard on February 20, 2010, broke a plants are allowed "to emit hundreds of curies of radioactive gases and other Washington, DC, 110-year-old annual snowfall record of 55 inches as well radioactive elements into the environment every year," Dr. Helen Caldicott, as seasonal records in Baltimore and Philadelphia.' Then, on February 26 the antinuclear authority, points out in her book Nuclear Power Is Not the and 27, another storm that pummeled New York City for 2 days broke a Answer. monthly snowfall record (37 inches) in Central Park that had stood for 114 years; the previous record for February was 28 inches in 1934, and the 319. Sherwood Ross, (Journalist), NUCLEAR POWER, 2010, 18-20. The largest for any month was 30.5 inches in March 1896. thousands of tons of solid radioactive waste accumulating in the cooling pools next to those plants contain "extremely toxic elements that will 329. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF inevitably pollute the environment and human food chains, a legacy that CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL will lead to epidemics of cancer, leukemia, and genetic disease in WARMING HOAX, 2011, 10. Extravagantly funded media campaigns populations living near nuclear power plants or radioactive waste facilities continue to advertise a "climate change crisis," despite obvious evidence for many generations to come." that the Earth began cooling once more at least a decade ago. 320. Sherwood Ross, (Journalist), NUCLEAR POWER, 2010, 20. David 330. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen Lochbaum, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, believes nuclear plant College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, safety standards are lacking and predicted another nuclear catastrophe in the 2010, 98. As early as 2008, a peer-reviewed research paper even suggested near future, stating, "It's not if but when." Not only are such plants unsafe a cooling cycle may take over for the next 20 years. Dyed-in-the-wool but the spent fuel is often hauled long distances through cities to waste AGW advocates like the BBCs meteorologist John Kettley have been storage facilities where it will have to be guarded for an estimated 240,000 forced to concede that globally speaking warming "appears to have stalled." years. 331. William Stewart, (Attorney & Journalist), CLIMATE OF 321. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN UNCERTAINTY: A BALANCED LOOK AT GLOBAL WARMING TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 288. Recent years AND RENEWABLE ENERGY, 2010, 33. With the publication of two have seen relatively few new nuclear power stations. The nine built in Asia groundbreaking articles in 2001 and 2002, however, the radical notion — in the last fifteen years have cost an average of almost $3,000 per kilowatt- that the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface has been steadily hour of capacity, if the cost is inflated to today's price level. This figure is decreasing since 1950 — has rocketed from the scientific fringes into the far higher than the proponents of nuclear energy claim in their promotional mainstream. materials. For example, the World Nuclear Association says the figure 332. Stanton Friedman & Kathleen Marden, (Nuclear Physicist & could be $1,500 a kilowatt-hour but provides no evidence to support this International Dir., Mutual UFO Network), SCIENCE WAS WRONG, 2010, claim. 157. The most important cycle is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). 322. Werner Weindorf, (Policy Consultant, Ludwig-Boilkow- This was in a positive cycle (warmer than usual) for much of the 1980s and Systemtechnik), THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITIES AND 1990s, and global temperatures were warmer too. In the past, the cycles CHALLENGES, 2009, 241-242. Brazil and the United States together have lasted for about 30 years, with the period from 1945 to 1977 account for more than 80% of global supply. Global production of ethanol coinciding with one of the cool Pacific cycles. Now it is again in a cooling has more than doubled between 2000 and 2005, and biodiesel expanded mode. In September 2009, Dr. Mojib Latif, a prize-winning German nearly fourfold. meteorologist and oceanographer, and a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, wrote that we may indeed be in a period of cooling that could last another 10 to 20 years.
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333. Alastair Sweeney, (Dir., The Civics Channel, Canada), BLACK 342. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen BONANZA: ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS AND THE RACE TO SECURE College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, NORTH AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE, 2010, 15. All of this is 2010, 139. In October 2008, after a particularly bitterly cold Alaskan happening while the emerging problem may, in fact, be global cooling. summer, glaciologists began reporting that Alaskan glaciers, particularly Ecologist Peter Taylor has shown that the jet stream shifts south as the those at Glacier Bay where the shrinkage had mainly been, began advancing magnetic field of the sun falls, and this was characteristic of the Little Ice for the first time in years. Glaciologist Bruce Molnia of the US Geological Age. In 2007, the sun's magnetic field fell to an all-time low and this Survey said, "In mid-June, I was surprised to see snow still at sea level in repeated through 2008 and 2009. Prince William Sound." He added, "On the Juneau Icefield, there was still 20 feet of new snow on the surface in late July. At Bering Glacier, a 334. Alastair Sweeney, (Dir., The Civics Channel, Canada), BLACK landslide I am studying did not become snow free until early August." In BONANZA: ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS AND THE RACE TO SECURE short, 2008 was the first time since records began that Alaskan glaciers did NORTH AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE, 2010, 167. The real travesty is that these researchers largely succeeded in stifling transparent science and not shrink during the summer months. open debate over the past ten years and continued to maintain the position 343. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen that the sky was falling when clearly it was not. In fact, NASA satellite data College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, clearly puts us into a cooling trend for the next few decades. 2010, 139. The media has also made much of the potential opening of the Northwest Passage. What it leaves out is that similar weather patterns 335. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen prevailed in the 1930s when two boats, the Nascopie and Aklavik, famously College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, met up in the Passage in 1937. In October 2008, a study by Ohio University 2010, 98. At the end of the first decade of the twenty-first century, however, one consensus is today factually indisputable: there has been no median confirmed that current Arctic warming patterns mimic those in the 1920- 40s. By July 2008, the Arctic ice had increased by nearly half a million global warming since the mid-1990s, and since 2002 the global mean square miles over the same first half year period in 2007. A NASA study temperature appears to have declined slightly. published in the peer-reviewed Geophysical Research Letters in October 336. S. Fred Singer, (Emeritus Professor, Climate Science, U. Virginia), 2007 had already noted that thinning Arctic ice was more likely the result of CLIMATE CHANGE RECONSIDERED, 2009, 4. Temperature records in "unusual winds" that had blown "older thicker" ice into warmer southern Greenland and other Arctic areas reveal that temperatures reached a waters. In other words, the Arctic warming experienced more recently may maximum around 1930 and have decreased in recent decades. Longer-term well be the result of the unusual strength of winds, not man-made warming. studies depict oscillatory cooling since the Climatic Optimum of the mid- 344. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen Holocene (~9000-5000 years BP), when it was perhaps 2.5º C warmer than College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, it is now. 2010, 138. During October and November 2008 the extent of Arctic ice was 337. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen 28.7 percent greater than during the same period in 2007. According to data College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, published by the International Arctic Research Center (IARC/ JAXA) 2010, 102. It has since emerged that the IPCC statement on Himalayan October 2008 saw "the fastest ever growth" of Arctic Sea ice since records glaciers was entirely fictitious, based as it turns out on thoroughly began. misleading information from a 2005 report by the World Wildlife Fund, 345. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen which itself was taken from an article published in the "eminent" and College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, popular UK science journal, The New Scientist in June 1999. That article, "Flooded Out," was written by an Indian glaciologist Syed Hasnain who 2010, 136-137. Climate scientist Dr. Ben Herman, past director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics and former head of Atmospheric Sciences speculated that Himalayan glaciers could vanish within 40 years as a result at the University of Arizona, notes that for the media: "What happens in the of global warming. Arctic may be an indicator of what will happen in the rest of the world. 338. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen How about what happens in the Antarctic then? Since its ice area has been College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, increasing, is this also an indicator of what might be happening in the rest of 2010, 137. Climate scientist Dr. Ben Herman gives us real context when he the world?" adds an appropriate footnote: "It is interesting that all of the AGW (anthropogenic global warming) stories concerning Antarctica are always 346. Stanley Feldman, (Former Professor, Stanford U.), GLOBAL WARMING AND OTHER BOLLOCKS, 2009, 55. There is absolutely no about what's happening around the western peninsula, which seems to be evidence that the world is likely to be flooded in the immediate future the only place on Antarctica that has shown any warming." Herman asks, "How about the rest of the continent, which is probably about 95 percent of because of the melting of the Antarctic ice. At present, most scientists agree that the Antarctic is not warming significantly. the land mass, not to mention the record sea ice coverage recently." 347. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF 339. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX, 2011, 65. Much of the specter of global warming WARMING HOAX, 2011, 55. The vast majority of all greenhouse warming effects is caused by water vapor in the air (considered a gas) and alarm centers upon Greenland and upon concerns that glaciers will cause water droplets in clouds, with minor contributions from CO2 and methane. disastrous sea level rise. A December 2005 BBC feature reported that two massive glaciers in eastern Greenland, Kangderlugssuaq and Helheim, were It is estimated that atmospheric water vapor may account for about 70 percent of this effect, compared with somewhere between 4.2 and 8.4 melting, with water "racing to the sea." It was predicted that continued percent for CO2, absorbing solar infrared over much of the same recession of more than 2 miles per year would be catastrophic. That prognosis proved premature, however. Only 18 months later, and despite wavelength band range as CO2 and even more. slightly warmer temperatures, the melting rate of both glaciers not only 348. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen slowed down and stopped but also had actually reversed, and the glaciers College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, began expanding in size. Landsat images revealed that by August 30, 2006, 2010, 107. Reconstruction of paleo-climatological CO2 concentrations Helheim had advanced beyond its 1933 boundary. demonstrate that carbon dioxide concentration today is near its lowest level since the Cambrian Era some 550 million years ago, when there was almost 340. S. Fred Singer, (Emeritus Professor, Climate Science, U. Virginia), 20 times as much CO in the atmosphere as there is today without causing a CLIMATE CHANGE RECONSIDERED, 2009, 4. Glaciers around the 2 world are continuously advancing and retreating, with a general pattern of "runaway greenhouse effect." retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age. There is no evidence of a 349. Stanley Feldman, (Former Professor, Stanford U.), GLOBAL increased rate of melting overall since CO2 levels rose above their pre- WARMING AND OTHER BOLLOCKS, 2009, 45. The late Fred Seitz, a industrial levels, suggesting CO2 is not responsible for glaciers melting. physicist at Oregon University Department of Science and Medicine, organized an online petition questioning the link between global warming 341. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF and CO2. The petition received 33,000 signatures from American scientists, CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL of whom over 9,000 held PhD degrees. WARMING HOAX, 2011, 67. The IPCC has recently admitted that the assertion in its 2007 report that the Himalayan glaciers would likely melt by 350. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF 2035 due to man-made global warming is false. That assertion had CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL prompted great alarm across southern and eastern Asia, where glaciers feed WARMING HOAX, 2011, 39. A common misconception is that all or most the major rivers. Even though many glacier experts had considered such a CO2 emissions from human activities accumulate steadily in the prediction to be preposterous, the IPCC had kept it in its report. As it turned atmosphere with a proportional greenhouse effect. Yet, on average, the out, the prediction was traced to a speculative magazine article authored by surface environment absorbs about half of those CO2 emissions. In an Indian glaciologist, Syed Hasnain, which had no supporting science addition, each unit of CO2 increase generally produces half the warming behind it. effect of the preceding one, and the atmosphere can become saturated to stop further effects. 351. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, 2010, 106-107. Carbon dioxide is a trace gas and by itself will produce little warming. Also, as CO2 increases, the incremental warming is less, as the effect is logarithmic so the more CO2, the less warming it produces.
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352. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF 361. James Houston & Robert Dean, (Dir., Emeritus, Research & CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL Development Center, U.S. Corps of Engineers/Prof., Emeritus, Coastal WARMING HOAX, 2011, 34. Based upon a variety of proxy indicators, Engineering, U. Florida), JOURNAL OF COASTAL RESEARCH, Feb. 23, such as ice core samples, atmospheric CO2 levels have remained relatively 2011. Retrieved May 6, 2011 from www.jcronline.org/doi/pdf/10.2112/ low over the past 650,000 years, even during the six previous interglacial JCOASTRES-D-10-00157.1. Our analyses do not indicate acceleration in periods when global temperatures were as much as 9°F warmer than the sea level in U.S. tide gauge records during the 20th century. Instead, for temperatures we currently enjoy. If this is true, might we legitimately each time period we consider, the records show small decelerations that are wonder what accounted for those nonhuman greenhouse influences? It consistent with a number of earlier studies of worldwide-gauge records. would seem to suggest that anthropogenic CO2 contributions may have no discernible influence upon climate, or that proxy data is often inaccurate— 362. Stanley Feldman, (Former Professor, Stanford U.), GLOBAL or both. WARMING AND OTHER BOLLOCKS, 2009, 60. Any equilibration of temperature between the tropics and the northern zones should, 353. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen theoretically, reduce the incidence of tempests. There is no evidence that the College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, amount of global warming over the past hundreds of years has increased the 2010, 107. CO2 has been totally uncorrelated with temperature over the last number or the severity of hurricanes in the Atlantic. decade, and has proved significantly negative in effect since 2002. 363. Roger Pielke, Jr., (Prof., Environmental Studies, U. Colorado), THE 354. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF CLIMATE FIX: WHAT SCIENTISTS AND POLITICIANS WON'T TELL CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL YOU ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING, 2010, 172. It should be obvious that WARMING HOAX, 2011, 32. A peer-reviewed climate study that appeared with no trends in landfall occurrence, especially in the regions that in the July 23, 2009, edition of Geophysical Research is critical of IPCC contribute the most economic losses, that climate change (regardless of modeling tendencies to fudge climate projections by exaggerating CO2 cause) cannot be a significant factor in explaining increasing disaster losses. influences and underestimating the importance of shifts in ocean conditions. A study published in early 2010 by a team of authors gathered by the World The research indicated that influences of solar changes and intermittent Meteorological Organization, which included scientists who had been at volcanic activity have accounted for at least 80 percent of observed climate odds on the topic several years earlier, provided an unambiguous statement: variation over the past half century. "We cannot at this time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data." 355. Stanley Feldman, (Former Professor, Stanford U.), GLOBAL WARMING AND OTHER BOLLOCKS, 2009, 65. Many more people die 364. Roger Pielke, Jr., (Prof., Environmental Studies, U. Colorado), THE of the effects of cold than heat. We are physiologically better able to CLIMATE FIX: WHAT SCIENTISTS AND POLITICIANS WON'T TELL compensate for an increase in atmospheric temperature than for a very cold YOU ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING, 2010, 172. In the United States it is environment. Provided the humidity is low, man can survive at clear that hurricane losses have not increased any faster than would be temperatures that would cook a steak, as a result of our ability to sweat. expected in the context of a rapidly growing coastal population Immersion in ice-cold water usually kills in less than five minutes. experiencing robust economic growth. So it would be misleading to attribute any of the increase in hurricane losses to climate change, human 356. Stanley Feldman, (Former Professor, Stanford U.), GLOBAL caused or otherwise. WARMING AND OTHER BOLLOCKS, 2009, 68. An increase in CO2 and a rise in mean temperature should help to offset this problem by producing 365. S. Fred Singer, (Emeritus Professor, Climate Science, U. Virginia), an increase in agricultural yields. With the possible exception of the more CLIMATE CHANGE RECONSIDERED, 2009, 8. Claims that malaria and arid counties around the equator, global warming should be a boon in tick-borne diseases are spreading or will spread across the globe as a result helping to meet the increasing demand for food. We should welcome the of CO2-induced warming are not supported in the scientific literature. gift of any extra energy in the form of warmth; we should be glad that the CO in the environment is not falling. A low atmospheric level of CO and a 366. William Stewart, (Attorney & Journalist), CLIMATE OF 2 2 UNCERTAINTY: A BALANCED LOOK AT GLOBAL WARMING cooler world would make it impossible to grow the food necessary to feed AND RENEWABLE ENERGY, 2010, 66-67. The advantages of a warmer, the world. wetter world would be wide-ranging. As a result of increased arable land, 357. Stanley Feldman, (Former Professor, Stanford U.), GLOBAL more CO2, and longer growing seasons, there would likely be an increase in WARMING AND OTHER BOLLOCKS, 2009, 23. The most alarming global agricultural yields. Melting ice would open up the historically suggestion of the doomsday environmentalists, that the oceans are rising at treacherous Northwest Passage sea route that runs through the Canadian an alarming rate, has been proved wrong. Islands that were due to be archipelago connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. On balance, submerged, according to their forecasts, are actually seeing the seas warmer weather would reduce heating costs more than it would increase air receding. Their prophecies have been shown to be wrong by information conditioning costs. from orbiting satellites. Over the past eight or nine years the measurements from ERS1 and ERS2 (European remote sensing satellites) have 367. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, demonstrated that there has been a rise in sea level of 0.5-0.1mm a year 2010, 94. Historically, man has always been far more concerned about (within the margin of scientific error) and that the increase is not accelerating! cooling climates. But, Danish climate scientist Henrik Svensmark and science writer Nigel Calder point out, "Among the thousands of human 358. Stanley Feldman, (Former Professor, Stanford U.), GLOBAL generations, ours may be the first that was ever frightened by a warming." WARMING AND OTHER BOLLOCKS, 2009, 66. There is plenty of Indeed, it is hard to credit why less than a single degree of warming (which evidence that the seas have been both higher and lower in the past. Towns is what we are talking about) between the 1850s and the mid 1990s should that were on the sea in biblical times, such as Ephesus, are now 15km register as a blip on the news-of-interest screen, much less set in transit a inland, whereas in other areas Roman, Greek and Indian cities can be found whole global multi-billion dollar industry. submerged below shallow seas. Most of these changes have occurred as a result of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions or shifts of tectonic plates that are 368. S. Fred Singer, (Emeritus Professor, Climate Science, U. Virginia), CLIMATE CHANGE RECONSIDERED, 2009, 8. Total heat-related still taking place. Few have been the result of the small increase in the mortality rates have been shown to be lower in warmer climates and to be levels of the oceans. unaffected by rising temperatures during the twentieth century. 359. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL 369. S. Fred Singer, (Emeritus Professor, Climate Science, U. Virginia), CLIMATE CHANGE RECONSIDERED, 2009, 8. Global warming reduces WARMING HOAX, 2011, 65. Dr. Morner observes that of the twenty-two the incidence of cardiovascular disease related to low temperatures and IPCC authors, none was a sea level specialist. He later said, "So all this talk that sea level is rising, this comes from the computer modeling, not from wintry weather by a much greater degree than it increases the incidence of cardiovascular disease associated with high temperatures and summer heat observations ... The new level, which has been stable, has not changed in waves. Mortality due to respiratory diseases decrease as temperatures rise the last 35 years ... But they [IPCC] need a rise, because if there is no rise, there is no death threat . . . If you want a grant for a research project in and as temperature variability declines. climatology, it is written into the document that there 'must' be a focus on 370. William Stewart, (Attorney & Journalist), CLIMATE OF global warming . . . That is really bad, because then you start asking for the UNCERTAINTY: A BALANCED LOOK AT GLOBAL WARMING answer you want to get. AND RENEWABLE ENERGY, 2010, 40-41. As scary as "lethal heat" and "extreme spikes in temperature" sound, it is likely that warmer temperatures 360. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF would result in a net savings of lives. Cold-related deaths are far more CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL numerous than heat-related fatalities in every area of the world except the WARMING HOAX, 2011, 65. Nils-Axel Morner is head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at Stockholm University in tropics. Because more frequent heat waves would also be accompanied by a decrease in bitter cold spells, no analysis of one set of effects is complete Sweden; past president of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes without consideration of the other. and Coastal Evolution; leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project; and one of the UN's "expert reviewers" of the IPCC's 2001 and 2007 reports. He agrees 371. William Stewart, (Attorney & Journalist), CLIMATE OF that concerns about rising sea levels are totally unfounded. His research in UNCERTAINTY: A BALANCED LOOK AT GLOBAL WARMING this area has taken him around the world, from Greenland to Antarctica and AND RENEWABLE ENERGY, 2010, 41. According to controversial to most coastal regions. environmental writer Bjorn Lomborg, "By 2050, there will be almost 400,000 more heat-related deaths a year, and almost 1.8 million fewer cold- related deaths. Warmer temperatures will save 1.4 million lives each year."
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372. S. Fred Singer, (Emeritus Professor, Climate Science, U. Virginia), 381. Joe Kolshak, (Spokesperson, Air Transport Association of America), CLIMATE CHANGE RECONSIDERED, 2009, 8. The IPCC alleges that FAA REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF “climate change currently contributes to the global burden of disease and MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 32. Accelerated and premature deaths” and will “increase malnutrition and consequent targeted deployment will produce significant benefits for the flying public disorders.” In fact, the overwhelming weight of evidence shows that higher in terms of airspace capacity and efficiency. It will lead to improved temperatures and rising CO2 levels have played an indispensible role in reliability and on-time performance, thereby greatly diminishing (if not making it possible to feed a growing global population without encroaching eliminating) the single biggest source of the public's dissatisfaction with on natural ecosystems. flying. It should also drive improvements in other customer service areas such as checked baggage delivery and long taxi-out times. 373. David Peterman, (Analyst in Transportation Policy, Congressional Research Service), HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN THE UNITED STATES, Dec. 382. Gary Beck, (Vice President, Alaska Airlines), NEXTGEN: AREA 8, 2009, 24. High speed trains are not expected to compete well against NAVIGATION (RNAV)/REQUIRED NAVIGATION PERFORMANCE intercity buses in many instances because bus travelers are most concerned (RNP), House Hrg., July 29, 2009, 74. Expediting NextGen into NowGen is about price. Recent improvements in intercity bus service quality and certainly doable. Congress can expedite the implementation of NextGen by frequency may reduce demand for high speed rail in some markets. providing a significant up-front investment that will yield benefits over the next five years rather than the current FAA timeline of 2025. The FAA 374. David Peterman, (Analyst in Transportation Policy, U.S. Congressional Research Service), HIGH SPEED RAIL: BACKGROUND must invest in both air and ground infrastructure and demonstrate the benefits of early equipage to the aviation user community. This expedited AND ISSUES, 2010, 14-15. On the question of highway congestion relief, approach not only will create jobs, but also will offer significant many studies estimate that HSR will have little positive effect because most highway traffic is local and the diversion of intercity trips from highway to environmental, safety and operational benefits. Ultimately, our airline customers will reap the benefit of fewer delays and cancellations and will rail will be small. In a study of HSR published in 1997, the Federal Railroad experience a more efficient airline operation. Administration (FRA) estimated that in most cases rail improvements would divert only 3%-6% of intercity automobile trips. 383. Joan Lowy, (Staff), THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, July 6, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from Nexis. The Federal Aviation Administration is 375. Eric Morris, (Staff, Freakonomics), HIGH SPEED RAIL AND CO2, creating a new air traffic system that officials say will be as revolutionary July 24, 2009, Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 from www.freakonomics.com/ for civil aviation as was the advent of radar six decades ago. But the 2009/07/24/high-speed-rail-and-co2/. HSR would emit less on a per-seat mile basis than air travel. But the major caveat is that all of these figures program is at a crossroads. It's getting harder to pry money out of Congress. The airline industry is hesitating over the cost of equipping its planes with consider emissions from operations only, without taking into account the new technology necessary to use the system. And some experts say the U.S. very large amount of pollution that will be created in the construction of the HSR system. When the emissions spewed by all those earth movers, tunnel could lose its lead in the manufacture of high tech aviation equipment to European competitors because the FAA is moving too slowly. boring machines, bulldozers, trucks, cranes, etc. are taken into account, the carbon advantage for HSR vis a vis air travel largely evaporates. 384. Joe Kolshak, (Spokesperson, Air Transport Association of America), FAA REAUTHORIZATION: NEXTGEN AND THE BENEFITS OF 376. Matt Thurber, (Staff), AVIATION INTERNATIONAL NEWS, July 2011, 50. For operators, NextGen will affect three key areas: MODERNIZATION, Sen. Hrg., Mar. 25, 2009, 31. While we strongly support NextGen, the current FAA plan does not produce significant communications, navigation and surveillance, according to Andy benefits—the capacity, efficiency and economic benefits described above— McDowell, Jeppesen director of airspace and airports. “The goal of NextGen is higher capacity and efficiency within the system,” he explained. for the traveling and shipping public or for system users until 2025. For system users—airlines, business aviation and general aviation—this delay “The system consists of operations in airspace as well as on the ground. On presents a special problem. The plan contemplates significant stakeholder surveillance, we’re looking at the transition to ADS-B. Communication is the move from voice-based to datalink. And navigation is the route structure investment, in addition to FAA investment, but no real benefit for many years. Without a timely return on investment, there is little incentive for based solely on Rnav and RNP. We’re going to have to have all three in airlines and other users to invest in new equipment and training. place, the technology as well as the ATC operational plan that makes use of those technologies.” 385. Brad Thomann, (Vice President & Chief Operating Officer, Jeppesen, Inc.), NEXTGEN: AREA NAVIGATION (RNAV)/REQUIRED 377. Matt Thurber, (Staff), AVIATION INTERNATIONAL NEWS, July NAVIGATION PERFORMANCE (RNP), House Hrg., July 29, 2009, 194. 2011, 51. At its core, NextGen involves the transition from a ground-based Acceleration of key near-term projects could jumpstart the implementation to an aircraft-based navigation system, explained Steve Fulton, technical fellow at GE’s Naverus business. Fulton, who helped develop RNP of NextGen. These projects, which include Tailored Arrivals, RNP, GLS, and SWIM/NEO, could be implemented quickly for minimal investment. procedures while flying for Alaska Airlines, cofounded Naverus, which was All of these projects have been tested and are providing benefit to users, but later sold to GE. “It’s a higher performance capability,” he said. “We’re no longer constrained to fly paths directly to or from ground navaids; we can need to be expanded nation-wide. create any path we need as the situation desires. There’s a tremendous 386. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: amount of flexibility in the lateral and vertical paths.” PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 85. NextGen could also increase 378. Matt Thurber, (Staff), AVIATION INTERNATIONAL NEWS, July 2011, 51. NextGen includes airport features such as real-time tracking and throughput at airports by making it feasible to provide short-haul service on 3,000 foot runways because certain aircraft types (such as planes carrying display of all aircraft and vehicles, which may help prevent incidents such no more than 100 passengers) would be able to follow precise independent as the one on April 11 in which an Airbus A380’s wingtip sideswiped the tail of a CRJ700 at JFK Airport. ADS-B is here, now. A approach and departure paths in a metropolitan area's terminal airspace. Such aircraft could use underutilized short runways at major hubs and serve network of ground stations already provides coverage across much of the reliever airports in the same metropolitan area as a congested hub airport. U.S., including the West and East Coasts, most of the Midwest, the Gulf Coast and a huge chunk of Alaska. Within these areas, properly equipped 387. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: aircraft can already use some ADS-B services. PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 160. The creation of the NextGen 379. Neil Planzer, (Vice President, Boeing Aircraft Management), (Next Generation) air traffic control system, a collection of ongoing and NEXTGEN: A REVIEW OF THE RTCA MID-TERM IMPLEMENTATION TASK FORCE REPORT, House Hrg., Oct. 28, new programs that are intended to triple air space capacity by 2025 by replacing radar with satellite technology, was announced by the federal 2009, 41. NextGen is not part of a civilian modernization. It is the government in 2004. A good opportunity to conduct a privatization modernization of a Federal air traffic control system. The reason we say it is Federal is because it serves both the civil and the military Defenders and experiment for the air traffic control system may, in fact, be while it is in transition. Indeed, Robyn has identified some important steps that the FAA first responders are critically important to the growth of NextGen. can take to make NextGen a market-oriented system. 380. Ashley Halsey, (Staff), WASHINGTON POST, Oct. 7, 2011, A17. NextGen is the most expensive and complicated transportation project since 388. Keith Herbert, (Staff), NEWSDAY, Apr. 1, 2012, A10. The satellite the launch of the interstate highway system. It is designed to replace an navigation system is supposed to increase capacity because planes could fly with 3 miles between them instead of the now-required 5-mile separation. outdated air traffic system developed in the 1950s that uses radar. With the Other NextGen positives, the FAA says, include enhanced safety, because number of air passengers projected by the FAA to grow from 730 million to 1.1 billion by 2025, the number of airplanes aloft would overwhelm the pilots will have precise information about the location of other aircraft aloft; reduced jet noise over a wider swath of Nassau; and energy savings due to system. The new system is based on Global Positioning System technology, jets flying at near-idle throttle, burning less fuel. but it relies on a vast amount of other kinds and a complete replacement of the procedures and protocols that govern flight.
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389. Marion Blakey, (Pres., Aerospace Industries Association), CIVIL 397. Michael Huerta, (Deputy Administrator, FAA), CONGRESSIONAL AVIATION GROWTH IN THE 21ST CENTURY, Sept. 2010, 3. Under DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Oct. 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, development for a number of years, NextGen will move the nation from 2012 from Nexis. Between 2007 and 2011, approximately $2.8 billion has reliance on an aging, radar-based system of air traffic control, to a satellite- been appropriated for NextGen. We estimate the development of NextGen based system of air traffic management. By leveraging Global Positioning will require between $20 and $27 billion in FAA funding from 2012 to System (GPS) technology—along with breakthroughs in everything from 2025. And just last month, the President requested $1 billion in the weather forecasting to data networking to digital. communications—the American Jobs Act for Next Gen to support applied research, advance NextGen system will ultimately enable new procedures that will allow more development, and implementation of engineering solutions for NextGen aircraft to fly closer together on more direct routes. The safer, more efficient technologies, applications and procedures. use of airspace through NextGen will reduce delays and provide significant economic and environmental benefits through reduced carbon emissions, 398. Matt Thurber, (Staff), AVIATION INTERNATIONAL NEWS, July 2011, 54. Precision GPS-based approaches are just one of the building fuel consumption and noise. blocks of NextGen, Brown explained, and the next blocks are already being 390. Matt Thurber, (Staff), AVIATION INTERNATIONAL NEWS, July deployed, with the goal of accommodating growth in air traffic. 2011, 50. The NextGen plan is part of an effort to wrap ATC modernization into the FAA’s vision “to reach the next level of safety, efficiency 399. Bill Carey, (Staff), AVIATION INTERNATIONAL NEWS, Jan. 2012. Retrieved Jan. 21, 2012 from www.ainonline.com. The FAA is environmental responsibility and global leadership.” When NextGen is fully forging ahead with core NextGen programs. The agency issued a request for implemented in U.S. airspace it will lead to great improvements in efficiency and consequent reductions in aviation-related emissions. offers for DataComm services last July and was evaluating industry proposals submitted in October. It says a contract award is on track for this 391. Matt Thurber, (Staff), AVIATION INTERNATIONAL NEWS, July year. FAA and prime contractor ITT Exelis have been rolling out the 2011, 54. FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt underscored the need for all ground infrastructure for ADS-B, a nationwide network of 794 radio aviation participants to support the move to NextGen in a speech he gave at stations, since late 2007. The system is slated for on-time completion in a symposium held by the Society of Aviation and Flight Educators on May 2013. 5. “I know there is a perception that NextGen benefits only big operators,” he said. “The reality is that everyone in aviation stands to gain from 400. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: NextGen. NextGen bundles dozens of improvements in airports, avionics PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 85. Radar is imprecise—it typically and ATC. The entire NextGen effort will create a much more efficient, updates aircraft positions every 4.8 seconds and forces controllers to responsive, ‘green’ airspace system that serves the public and supports our national economy.” separate aircraft by several miles to avoid collisions. In contrast, the automatic dependent surveillance broadcast (a key component of NextGen 392. Michael Huerta, (Deputy Administrator), CONGRESSIONAL known by the acronym ADS-B) updates positions every second. The FAA DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Oct. 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, has recently proposed a rule for airlines and business jets to equip all 2012 from Nexis. As with safety, our work to enhance aviation's influence aircraft operating in controlled airspace with ADS-B-compatible avionics on the environment also benefits -- and is a beneficiary of -- NextGen. The by 2020. operational improvements that reduce noise, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse-gas emissions from aircraft are the tip of the FAA's 401. Federal Aviation Administration, NEXT GENERATION AIR environmental iceberg. Equally important are the other four-fifths of the TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: THE FUTURE OF FLIGHT, 2011, 8. The FAA already has achieved a number of critical NextGen milestones. agency's environmental approach -- aircraft and engine technology We have initiated and expanded satellite-based surveillance, improved advances, sustainable fuels, policy initiatives and advances in science and modeling. airport runway access, increased safety and efficiency on the ground, and enhanced airspace safety and operations. NextGen technologies and 393. Michael Huerta, (Deputy Administrator), CONGRESSIONAL procedures, along with airspace redesign, have enabled more direct routes DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Oct. 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, and more efficient operations, which use less fuel and reduce emissions. 2012 from Nexis. Environmental benefits of operational improvements are simple and direct. When we improve efficiency in the NAS, most of the 402. Federal Aviation Administration, NEXT GENERATION AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: THE FUTURE OF FLIGHT, 2011, 10. time we save time and fuel. Burning less fuel produces less carbon dioxide As airports and other segments of the greater aviation community already and other harmful emissions. Some of our NextGen improvements, notably landing approaches in which aircraft spend less time maintaining level are starting to reap the benefits of NextGen capabilities, the best is yet to come. Our latest estimates indicate that by 2018, NextGen will reduce total flight and thus can operate with engines at idle, reduce ground noise too. flight delays by about 21 percent, providing $22 billion in cumulative But operational benefits go only so far; their net system-wide effect can be offset by growth of the aviation system. benefits to the traveling public, aircraft operators and the FAA. During this same period, we expect to save more than 1.4 billion gallons of fuel from 394. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: air traffic operations alone, cutting carbon emissions by nearly 14 million PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. tons. These conservative estimates make the case for NextGen and affirm TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 160. NextGen could respond to the that the path we are traveling with our aviation partners is the right one. preferences of airspace users by developing improvements in specific 403. Federal Aviation Administration, NEXTGEN IMPLEMENTATION regions of the country that users are willing to pay for. For example, Nav PLAN, Mar. 2012, 4. NextGen is a comprehensive overhaul of our National Canada is installing ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast) from the global satellite network over the Hudson Bay, which is not served Airspace System to make air travel more convenient and dependable, while ensuring your flight is as safe, secure and hassle-free as possible. In a by radar, because international flights are willing to pay for real-time continuous rollout of improvements and upgrades, the FAA is building the weather information that reduces aircraft separation and delays. Generally, user fees could facilitate mutually beneficial business decisions that capability to guide and track air traffic more precisely and efficiently to save fuel and reduce noise and pollution. NextGen is better for our providers and users are likely to make on a regular basis. environment, and better for our economy. 395. Michael Huerta, (Deputy Administrator, FAA), CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Oct. 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, 404. J. Randolph Babbitt, (FAA Administrator), NEXTGEN 2012 from Nexis. More precise tracking and information-sharing will IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, Mar. 2011, 5. Our latest estimates, which are sensitive to traffic and fuel price forecasts, indicate that by 2018, NextGen improve the situational awareness of pilots, enabling them to plan and carry will reduce total delays (in flight and on the ground) by about 35 percent out safe operations in ways they cannot do today. Air traffic controllers will become more effective guardians of safety through automation and compared with what would happen if we did nothing. That delay reduction will provide, through 2018, $23 billion in cumulative benefits to aircraft simplification of their most routine tasks, coupled with better awareness of operators, the traveling public and the FAA. In the process, we will save conditions in the airspace they control. Additionally, NextGen will facilitate the implementation of Safety Management System processes for the air about 1.4 billion gallons of aviation fuel during this period, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 14 million tons. traffic controllers' use. 405. Matt Thurber, (Staff), AVIATION INTERNATIONAL NEWS, July 396. Aerospace Industries Association, NEXTGEN: THE FUTURE OF 2011, 54. Aviation & Systems Integration Group, North Little Rock, Ark., FLYING, June 2010, 1. NextGen is a national transportation infrastructure priority. The Transportation Department and the White House are looking at may have put it best in a recent blog post about NextGen: “Don’t fool yourself into thinking that, with the ADS-B out requirement in 2020, you ways to accelerate NextGen implementation by up to eight years. This will have a lot of time. Nearly all of the NextGen components–PBN/RNP, ADS- only be possible with robust federal funding support not just for FAA programs and infrastructure, but also for avionics equipment in the aircraft B and datalink communication– are up and running in various parts of the nation. Like rocks of technology strategically dropped into the airspace that will transport passengers and cargo around the United States and the pool, their rings of operational readiness are growing ever larger.” world.
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406. J. Randolph Babbitt, (FAA Administrator), NEXTGEN 414. Federal Aviation Administration, NEXT GENERATION AIR IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, Mar. 2011, 10. During 2010, NextGen made TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: THE FUTURE OF FLIGHT, 2011, 45. flying safer by giving pilots nearly total access to stabilized approach NextGen is not a single system or program that can be turned on all at once. procedures with three-dimensional precision using Performance Based Moving from today's National Airspace System to one that is even safer and Navigation (PBN). It made air transportation more efficient by moving more efficient while enhancing capacity and environmental performance is aircraft in and out of airports faster and by making better use of airspace. It an extremely complex endeavor. NextGen's multiple capabilities, both those gave pilots and air traffic controllers new capabilities that will allow them we already are benefiting from and those that are in development, are to see the exact location of surrounding aircraft. It reduced aviation's interdependent on one another and will be incorporated into our airspace environmental impact from some operations using capabilities that allow over varying time frames. This calls for a deliberate and incremental aircraft to burn less fuel, emit fewer greenhouse gases and reduce noise. approach not only in technology and infrastructure development but also the FAA policies, standards and operational practices that ensure our careful 407. Matt Thurber, (Staff), AVIATION INTERNATIONAL NEWS, July 2011, 50-51. Surveillance is currently the sole FAA mandate, the Jan. 1, approach to the Next Generation Air Transportation System. 2020 deadline to install avionics capable of broadcasting precise position 415. Federal Aviation Administration, NEXT GENERATION AIR information, known as automatic dependent surveillance broadcast out TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: THE FUTURE OF FLIGHT, 2011, 45. (ADS-B OUT). While this is not yet an FAA mandate, some regions have Part of the challenge of NextGen is that not everything will be brand new at imposed requirements for controller-pilot datalink communications the same time nor be required in all segments. We will incorporate some (CPDLC) and future air navigation system (Fans 1/A) capabilities. CPDLC new capabilities with existing infrastructure, and transition others over time. and Fans 1/A are datalink communications systems that allow pilots to Deployments under way today provide tangible near-term benefits while communicate with controllers via electronic messages instead of voice. forming a foundation to leverage for the midterm, targeted for 2018. Working with our stakeholders, the mid-term system will provide 408. Michael Huerta, (Deputy Administrator), CONGRESSIONAL fundamental change in our aviation infrastructure and the environmental DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Oct. 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from Nexis. Many airports will benefit from substantial improvements and energy technologies that will be available, the safety management approach used, and the way operations will be conducted. It also provides a in efficiency, access, surveillance, environment and safety. Surveillance, solid foundation to build even greater NextGen capabilities over the long- situational awareness and safety will improve at airports with air traffic control radar services as we deploy ADS-B ground stations across the NAS term. and update our automation systems, and as operators equip their aircraft for 416. Preston Schiller, (Prof., Urban Planning, Queen’s U.), AN it. The FAA also plans to publish Wide Area Augmentation System INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, 2010, 11. Localizer Performance with Vertical Guidance approach procedures for all Automobile cities suffer a number of economic impacts, such as congestion suitable runway ends by 2016. costs in terms of lost time and the high costs of urban infrastructure for the extra distances that must be traversed for water, sewage and drainage 409. Michael Huerta, (Deputy Administrator), CONGRESSIONAL systems, roads, and a variety of social infrastructure such as schools, DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Oct. 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from Nexis. We are making important progress on a number of efforts medical centers and community halls that must be duplicated as the city spreads. In the meantime, vast areas of existing urban infrastructure remain to show how better situational awareness and pacing on the ground will underutilized due to demographic changes and are begging for revitalization give operators and the traveling public more reliability and save them time, while also managing environmental impacts. We can cut fuel consumption through better transit and higher densities. and emissions by reducing the time and number of aircraft idling on 417. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, taxiways waiting for takeoff, or for open gate slots upon arrival. Also, we AMERICA'S TOP FIVE TRANSPORTATION HEADACHES -- AND can reduce equipment wear -- stop-and-go accelerations are hard on engines THEIR REMEDIES, Jan. 2009, 2. Congestion is increasing across the and other parts, and they also emit significant additional amounts of carbon nation, and "rush hour" is getting longer, slowing commuting and dioxide into the atmosphere. commerce, not only in the nation's largest urban areas, but also in mid-and smaller-size cities. The average rush hour commuter spends an additional 410. Federal Aviation Administration, NEXTGEN IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, Mar. 2012, 8. While the air traffic control system in the United 38 hours annually — an average work week - stuck in traffic. This figure is up from 14 hours in 1982. The length of "rush hour" doubled in the nation's States is the most reliable in the world, the technology we use today has urban areas from three hours in 1982 to six hours in 2005. In 1982, Los evolved about as far as it can. NextGen technologies and procedures are helping to restore flexibility to an air transportation system that is nearing Angeles was the only urban area in the U.S. where rush-hour commuters lost 40 or more hours per year due to traffic congestion. Today, 28 urban the point where growth may be inhibited. Performance Based Navigation areas experience 40 or more hours of delay as a result of traffic congestion. (PBN) capabilities and procedures, enabled by satellite positioning and other aircraft- and ground-based technologies, are freeing aircraft from the Almost one half of the nation's urban Interstates, highways or freeways are considered congested, because they carry a level of traffic that is likely to old highways in the sky that are dependent on ground-based beacons. PBN result in significant delays during peak travel hours. enables more direct, fuel-efficient routes and provides alternatives for routing around NAS disruptions, such as bad weather or unexpected 418. Edward Markey, (U.S. Rep., Massachusetts), CONSTRUCTING A congestion. Likewise, automation system improvements are providing air GREEN TRANSPORTATION POLICY: TRANSIT MODES AND traffic controllers with greater decision-making tools, while digital INFRASTRUCTURE, Hrg., Mar. 19, 2009, 1. The U.S. transportation information sharing is helping aircraft operators, controllers and traffic sector is responsible for approximately one-third of our country's managers work together to maximize efficiency in the air and on the airport greenhouse gas emissions. About 60 percent of these emissions are from surface. passenger vehicles. The United States has 4% percent of the world's population and 30 percent of the world's automobiles. Seventy-seven 411. Federal Aviation Administration, NEXTGEN IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, Mar. 2012, 38. Under the best of circumstances, management and percent of Americans use a single passenger car to commute. coordination of the NextGen suite of systems and procedures is a complex 419. Anne Maczulak, (Microbiologist, Ph.D., U. Kentucky), undertaking. It must be managed and implemented as a portfolio, not as a ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING: DESIGNING A SUSTAINABLE series of independent programs. Under the economic and budget conditions FUTURE, 2010, 31. In the United States, vehicles emit carbon dioxide of 2011, the demands the FAA faces have grown. In response, we adapt and (CO2) pollution in amounts second only to coal-burning power plants. The adjust our plans to these demands and their impact on resources. National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) has estimated that U.S. automobiles annually produce 1.5 billion tons (1.4 billion metric tons) of 412. J. Randolph Babbitt, (FAA Administrator), NEXTGEN IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, Mar. 2011, 9. The interdependence of CO2, which combines with other greenhouse gases to contribute to the world's current climate change. NextGen systems means that challenges faced by one program could create challenges for another. Some of the capabilities deployed by the FAA will 420. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE not be able to provide benefits until sufficient numbers of operators have EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC equipped to take advantage of them. New procedures implemented by the COLLAPSE, 2011, 106-107. Any serious global effort to cut automotive FAA will have no impact if controllers and pilots have not been trained in fuel use begins with the United States, which consumes more gasoline than their proper execution. the next 20 countries combined, including Japan, China, Russia, Germany, and Brazil. The United States—with 248 million passenger vehicles out of 413. Marion Blakey, (Pres., Aerospace Industries Association), CIVIL ST the global 965 million—not only has by far the largest fleet of cars but is AVIATION GROWTH IN THE 21 CENTURY, Sept. 2010, 6. A near the top in miles driven per car and near the bottom in vehicle fuel Memorandum of Cooperation (MOC) in civil. aviation research and development (R&D) was signed in June 2010 between the FAA and the efficiency. European Commission (EC) in response to the user community's demands for additional. coordination in the area of NextGen/SESAR interoperability. Considering the comparable goals of both programs, airspace users are especially keen to avoid costly duplication of airborne equipment. In order to facilitate interoperability between both future ATM systems, the MOC establishes a binding framework for meaningful technical cooperation in this area.
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421. Clinton Andrews, (Prof., Urban Planning, Rutgers U.), PUBLIC 429. Preston Schiller, (Prof., Urban Planning, Queen’s U.), AN TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, 2010, 34. 2009, 38. The U.S. economy produces 21 percent of the world's greenhouse In the US, the car has come to embody a conception of individualism whose gas emissions, with 28 percent of U.S. emissions due to the transportation roots might be traced to the talks and writings of Ralph Waldo Emerson, in sector. We know with confidence that: (1) global warming is already which he focused on the virtue of following one's own thoughts and underway; (2) human activities are a key driver of this climate change; (3) intuitions and the avoidance of a superficial conformity. The isolation of the the effects of other air pollutants are actually masking the extent of the car driver allows a person to see himself as empowered and in control. This global warming to date; (4) the trajectory of future greenhouse gas has long been a theme in popular culture, in literature and films as well as emissions indicates that some fairly dire scenarios are plausible; and (5) the advertising. Our pervasive mythology of the 'road trip' means that we view impacts on human health, food and fiber production, coastal areas, water the act of driving as an adventure of self-discovery and personal character availability, and ecosystem health will scale upwards with the trajectory of development. The great size of the US, its abundance of open space and emissions? relative under-population, has given personal mobility a special sort of meaning and emphasizes our exceptionalist character. 422. Michael Replogle, (Dir., Institute for Transportation and Development), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE 430. Preston Schiller, (Prof., Urban Planning, Queen’s U.), AN SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 2009, 7. Transportation greenhouse gas growth INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, 2010, 9. stems mainly from increased vehicle use, which will again double by 2030, The public realm has suffered immeasurably as streetscapes have become barring changes in policy. This threatens to counter the greenhouse gas dominated by parking, roads and the other paraphernalia of auto benefits of new CAFE standards and fuel requirements. Effective climate dependence, including high levels of visual intrusion from auto-scale protection requires Federal action to expand efficient transportation options advertising signs, or '100 km/hr architecture' as Jan Gehl, the famous urban with requirements that transportation plans and programs achieve climate designer, calls it. protection goals, with funding tied to performance. 431. Preston Schiller, (Prof., Urban Planning, Queen’s U.), AN 423. Craig Canine, (Staff), ON EARTH MAGAZINE, Feb. 27, 2009. INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, 2010, 13. Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 from http://www.onearth.org/print/982. On top of Low-density auto-dependent suburbs where there are few, if any, small the twin crises of increasing congestion and decaying infrastructure, there is local shops and where little walking occurs can suffer from a lack of the enormous challenge of climate change. Transportation accounts for one- community feeling and a loss of street life that was common in North third of the country's total CO2 emissions; as a producer of greenhouse American and Australian suburbs only some 40 to 50 years ago. Numerous gases it is second only to the electric-power industry, and its emissions are authors over many years have pointed to many problems associated with growing faster than those of any other sector. creating urban environments with a poor sense of belonging and a lack of natural surveillance. 424. Nelson/Nygaard Consulting Associates, STRANDED AT THE STATION: THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN PUBLIC 432. Preston Schiller, (Prof., Urban Planning, Queen’s U.), AN TRANSPORTATION, Aug. 2009, 5. The transportation sector accounts for INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, 2010, 14. one-third of America's carbon emissions, and as vehicle miles traveled have The decline of the public realm in cities is well depicted in Mike Davis's increased, so have emissions.' Altogether, American vehicles burn fuel at a (1990) book City of Quartz, a detailed portrayal of the decline of Los rate of 6,300 gallons per second, helping to make the U.S. the world's Angeles (and a metaphor for urban America, more generally), which turns leading producer of carbon emissions." Transit, however, reduces vehicle primarily on the destruction of the public realm and the descent into what he miles traveled by 102.2 billion miles per year—meaning that without calls 'Fortress LA' and the 'ecology of fear'. In an interview about his work, transit, America's contribution to global warming would be much greater." Davis describes Los Angeles as: "... a megalopolitan sprawl ... economically A 2002 study found that transit saves Americans more than 855 million and ecologically moribund, ravaged by social polarization and racial gallons of gasoline a year, or 45 million barrels of oil—equal to about one tensions that have provided fertile ground for the criminalizing of non- month's worth of imports from Saudi Arabia or three months of the fuel whites, urban youth and the homeless; militarizing of a notoriously brutal needed to heat, cool and supply electricity to all of the homes in America. police force; the privatizing of public space; and the proliferation of fortified suburban enclaves whose lawns bristle with warnings of 'armed 425. Michael Replogle, (Dir., Institute for Transportation and response'." Development), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 2009, 7. Curbing U.S. transportation emissions is 433. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, EQUITY IN vital to effective climate policy. Transportation accounts for 28 percent of TRANSPORTATION FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES, 2012, 1. U.S. greenhouse emissions and accounts for 47 percent of the net increase Twenty years after passage of the ADA, transportation choices for people in greenhouse gases between 1990 and 2003. The contribution to global with disabilities are still extremely limited. The ADA has led to major warming of the U.S. transportation sector is larger than any nation's entire improvements in transit systems across the United States; however, there economy, with the exception of China. To avert the worst impacts of global are persistent gaps in compliance that continue to create significant barriers warming, we must substantially cut America's transportation greenhouse for people with disabilities. Accessible transportation options—including gases. accessible buses, railway systems, taxis, and paratransit—allow people with disabilities important opportunities in education, employment, health care, 426. Preston Schiller, (Prof., Urban Planning, Queen’s U.), AN housing, and participation in community life. INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, 2010, 176. The huge amount of space needed to accommodate cars is a perennial 434. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, EQUITY IN source of frustration to people trying to maintain the amenities and TRANSPORTATION FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES, 2012, 1. The efficiencies possible in cities. It has long been recognized that transit is lack of transportation options in many communities is a major barrier to tremendously more space efficient than cars. employment opportunities for people with disabilities. Without access to transportation, people with disabilities will not be part of society's economic 427. Preston Schiller, (Prof., Urban Planning, Queen’s U.), AN INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, 2010, 241. environment and will continue to be alienated from the economic mainstream, thus causing a myriad of other problems, like homelessness Much of the visual environment in cities today is geared towards the and institutionalization. automobile. Signs are frequent, large and designed to be read at automobile speed. The architecture of many buildings caters to the car, rather than 435. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, EQUITY IN appreciation by pedestrians. The visual environment is also dominated by TRANSPORTATION FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES, 2012, 1. the paraphernalia of traffic management systems, such as signs and lights. Because many individuals with disabilities have increased health care All of these visual elements make it very hard to have attractive and needs, isolation from providers can have a profound impact on quality of consistent human-scale urban design qualities. life, health, and safety. Accessible transportation options can make the difference between health care access and isolation for adults and the 428. Preston Schiller, (Prof., Urban Planning, Queen’s U.), AN children in their care. INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, 2010, 34. Driving a car or riding in one produces a particular consciousness in which 436. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, WHERE WE NEED TO other drivers and riders, as well as pedestrians and bicyclists, are GO: A CIVIL RIGHTS ROADMAP FOR TRANSPORTATION EQUITY, transformed into exotic creatures different from us, with incomprehensible March 2011, 2. For many people with disabilities, traveling by car (or needs, rights and ways of being. Car consciousness pervades our lives transporting their children by car) is not an option, regardless of whether because driving is not a luxury or an occasional or exceptional activity, but they can afford it. Because many individuals with disabilities have an essential tool for existing in the US and many places in the world. increased health care needs—such as physical therapy, medication monitoring, and other medical services—isolation from providers can have a profound impact on quality of life, health, and safety. Accessible transportation options—such as plentiful sidewalks with crosswalk modifications for the visually impaired, buses, and rail—can make the difference between health care access or isolation both for adults and for the children in their care.
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437. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, WHERE WE NEED TO 445. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), GO: A CIVIL RIGHTS ROADMAP FOR TRANSPORTATION EQUITY, EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, March 2011, 3. People with disabilities in car-dependent areas have little or June 14, 2010, 4. Compared with its peers the United States has higher no accessible, affordable transportation options. Those in metropolitan healthcare costs and poor health outcomes. In 2007 the U.S. had a 78.1 year cores, though more likely to have access to sidewalks, rail, and bus service, life expectancy, almost one year below the OECD average of 79.0 years, have limited access to growing job markets in outlying areas. and spent $7,290 per capita on healthcare, almost two-and-a-half times greater than the OECD average (OECD 2009). Transportation-related health 438. Preston Schiller, (Prof., Urban Planning, Queen’s U.), AN risks are major contributors to these poor health outcomes and high INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, 2010, 17. Many households of low to middle income in outer areas face the choice of healthcare costs, and public transportation health benefits can help reduce these discrepancies as described in the next section. using poor transit or of devoting an increasing proportion of limited household income to the high costs of auto-ownership and use. Where low- 446. Preston Schiller, (Prof., Urban Planning, Queen’s U.), AN density peripheral expansion or BAU continues, auto dependence becomes INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, 2010, 11. increasingly built into the form and fabric of the city. In essence, the There are large economic costs associated with road accidents and deaths in capacity to afford and use automobiles becomes the key to the enjoyment of cities. About 45,000 people die on US roads per year, equivalent to a full- adequate and equitable access in the modern automobile-dependent city. scale war. 439. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, TRANSPORTATION 447. Joseph Natowitz, (Prof., Engineering, Texas A&M U.), OUR POLICY AND ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE, April 2011, 3. The poorest ENERGY FUTURE: RESOURCES, ALTERNATIVES, AND THE fifth of American families spend 42 percent of their incomes on ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 448. The annual number of incidents of vehicle transportation." This massive expenditure can wipe out already limited engines catching fire is significant. In the United States alone, 15,000 budgets for out-of-pocket medical expenses, nutritious food, and healthy vehicles burn accidentally each year, causing approximately 500 deaths and recreational activities. Because affordable housing is increasingly located 7000 burn injuries. far from main transportation lines and jobs, low-income people and people 448. Education Fund, Arizona Public Interest Research Group, WHY AND of color are more likely to have long commutes—which reduce time for HOW TO FUND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, Mar. 2009, 7. The exercise, shopping for healthy foods, and additional earning opportunities. Fast-moving traffic on highways literally may divide communities, Bureau of Transportation Statistics estimates that motor vehicles cause over 40,000 accidental deaths and almost 3 million injuries each year." By especially those with elderly people and people with disabilities, and this contrast, less than 300 deaths annually take place on public transit. Using isolation is associated with higher mortality and morbidity in the elderly." conservative estimates to quantify these costs in financial terms, the 440. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, WHERE WE NEED TO National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in 2002 estimated an GO: A CIVIL RIGHTS ROADMAP FOR TRANSPORTATION EQUITY, average social cost from accidents totally 15.8 cents per vehicle mile or 4.3 March 2011, 2. Low-income people and people of color disproportionately percent of GDP. lose out on educational and work opportunities due to health problems. Inadequate access to transportation has exacerbated health disparities, 449. Benjamin David, (Analyst, Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), DO ROADS PAY FOR THEMSELVES?: SETTING THE forcing many low-income patients to miss appointments—often worsening RECORD STRAIGHT ON TRANSPORTATION FUNDING, Jan. 2011, their medical problems. Lack of transit options also wastes resources by forcing some patients and providers to pay for taxis and other expensive 31. The harm is that dedication of gasoline tax revenue to highway projects inherently prejudices transportation decision-making in favor of highways. services.' The high cost of transportation also forces low-income families to In the current atmosphere of massive state budget shortfalls and federal limit spending for other basic needs, including out-of-pocket health care expenses and nutritious food. budget deficits, there is simply no way to ensure that other transportation priorities receive adequate investment if highways get first dibs on 441. Vikram Janardhan, (CEO, Insera Energy, LLC), ENERGY dedicated funding. If the choice facing local decision-makers, for example, EXPLAINED, Vol. 1, 2011, 84. Perhaps the most insidious source of oil is to build or expand a highway with federal funding or do nothing at all, pollution with regard to cars is what people do with their old motor oil. those decision-makers are likely to build the highway, even if other, harder- Sadly, many of us just dump it down the drain, out in the backyard, or in the to-fund transportation solutions would provide greater overall benefits. gutter. In fact, according to the folks at Castrol (who know a thing or two about motor oil), more than twenty times the oil spilled in the Valdez 450. Chris Zimmerman, (Board Member, Arlington County, Virginia), disaster enters the environment every year through illegal dumping. EPA CONSTRUCTING A GREEN TRANSPORTATION POLICY: TRANSIT MODES AND INFRASTRUCTURE, Hrg., Mar. 19, 2009, 30. The most estimates on the subject put the percentage of used motor oil that is illegally important actions that can be taken by the federal government in support of dumped at 13.4 percent with another 10.1 percent going into landfills. these policies are ones that you have heard many times over — increased 442. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), funding, prioritization of transit and increased coordination. Currently, EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, federal funding for transit programs accounts for only 20% of overall June 14, 2010, 11. A third category of health impacts concerns the effects surface transportation funding. While I understand there are pressing needs transport has on physical activity and fitness. In recent years, public health in the area of highways and bridges, we cannot accomplish our officials have become increasingly alarmed at declining physical fitness and transportation and environmental goals with this disproportionate level of resulting increases in diseases associated with sedentary lifestyles. investment in transit. The federal government must recalibrate its Inadequate physical activity, and resulting excessive body weight, investments in the transportation sector in such a way as to invest more contribute to heart and vascular diseases, strokes, diabetes, hypertensive heavily in multimodal strategies. diseases, osteoporosis, joint and back problems, colon and breast cancers, and depression. Even modest reductions in these illnesses can provide large 451. Trip Pollard, (Sr. Scientist, Environmental Law Center), AGENDA savings and benefits. FOR A SUSTAINABLE AMERICA, 2009, 368. Federal transportation policies have strongly favored motor vehicles and road building. The 443. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956, which launched an unparalleled effort to EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, build a 41,000-mile interstate highway system, was particularly June 14, 2010, 12. Currently, less than half of American adults achieve instrumental in encouraging driving and set the tone for transportation recommended physical activity targets, and participation rates decline with policy for decades. In 2005, Congress adopted the most recent renewal of age, as illustrated in Figure 10. This indicates the importance of finding the federal surface transportation law—the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, practical ways to increase physical activity, particularly for people who are Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). currently sedentary, overweight or older. Although there are many possible It provides a record level of highway spending, and its funding formulas are ways to exercise, some, such as organized sports or working out at a gym, based on measures such as vehicle miles traveled and lane miles that reward require special time, skill and expense, which discourages participation. unsustainable transportation practices. Many experts believe that increasing walking and cycling (together called 452. Trip Pollard, (Sr. Scientist, Environmental Law Center), AGENDA active transportation) is the most practical way to improve public fitness, FOR A SUSTAINABLE AMERICA, 2009, 371. Sustainable transportation particularly for vulnerable populations such as children, seniors and people with low incomes who often have difficulty participating in structured is not possible without fundamentally changing the current focus on motor vehicles and road building. All too often, people drive their cars and exercise programs due to financial and time constraints. businesses move freight by trucks because there is no realistic option. 444. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), Development of less energy-intensive, less-polluting transportation modes EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, is needed to provide meaningful transportation choices. Spending priorities June 14, 2010, 1. Current health trends offer both good and bad news. The should be reoriented. Federal spending on roads has been roughly five times good news is that many simple, affordable, and often enjoyable lifestyle greater than mass transit spending in recent years and over 100 times more habits can lead to healthier and happier lives: breath fresh air, avoid than spending on pedestrian and bicycle projects; states often spend an even dangerous driving, maintain healthy weight, be physically active, eat fresh larger share of their transportation funds on roads. fruits and vegetables, maintain friendships, and avoid excessive stress. Even chocolate is considered healthy if consumed in moderation! But there is also bad news. Many people find it difficult to maintain healthy habits. As a result, the U.S. has relatively poor health outcomes compared with peer countries, and according to some projections average U.S. lifespans may actually decline in the future due to growing but avoidable health risks.
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453. Trip Pollard, (Sr. Scientist, Environmental Law Center), AGENDA 460. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), THE FIRST FOR A SUSTAINABLE AMERICA, 2009, 373. Current policies provide CASUALTY OF A NON-EXISTENT WAR, Mar. 11, 2011, 5-6. Walking, direct and indirect subsidies that mask the costs of driving and distort travel cycling and public transport represent about 15% of total personal trips, and decisions. Although estimates vary, total governmental subsidies for vehicle about twice that in cities. Considering all levels of government, less than use have been pegged as high as several hundred billion dollars a year. 5% of surface transportation expenditures are devoted to non-motorized Policies should be shifted to send more accurate signals of the true costs of facilities, and only 1-2% including the costs of government-mandated driving in order to reduce travel, increase efficient use of roads, and parking facilities, indicating that non-motorized modes receive far less than increase demand for more efficient, cleaner vehicles and modes of transport. their fair share of funding. Public transit receives proportionately more (about 20% of government expenditures or about 8% if parking subsidies 454. Trip Pollard, (Sr. Scientist, Environmental Law Center), AGENDA are included) but transit has attributes that justify a higher proportion of FOR A SUSTAINABLE AMERICA, 2009, 373-374. Parking policies offer funding as described in the box below. a prime example. Local zoning regulations often require developers to provide large amounts of free parking, and federal tax law allows employers 461. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, WHERE WE NEED TO to deduct the cost of providing employees free or discounted parking. GO: A CIVIL RIGHTS ROADMAP FOR TRANSPORTATION EQUITY, According to one estimate, drivers do not pay for parking for 99 percent of March 2011, 7. Our transportation policy has been made by bodies that do trips in the United States. This encourages people to drive more and use not represent all constituents equally. A more equitable transportation other travel modes less. The preferential tax treatment for parking benefits system is only possible if low-income people, people of color, and people should be eliminated, requirements that businesses provide a minimum with disabilities have meaningful representation in local decision-making number of parking spaces lowered, employees allowed a greater benefit for bodies such as Metropolitan Planning Organizations. Everyone should have commuting using other modes, and employees permitted to receive cash in a seat at the table when transportation policy is developed and funds are lieu of parking subsidies without paying taxes on this benefit. spent. We should reform the transportation planning process to be more outcome-oriented, using measures that promote equity, including mobility, 455. Trip Pollard, (Sr. Scientist, Environmental Law Center), AGENDA FOR A SUSTAINABLE AMERICA, 2009, 367. Public policies have job access, health, safety, and making investments in local communities. played a central role in shaping the current, unsustainable transportation 462. Nelson/Nygaard Consulting Associates, STRANDED AT THE patterns. Transportation policies and investments at all levels of government STATION: THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN PUBLIC have focused on road building and motor vehicles for at least the past 60 TRANSPORTATION, Aug. 2009, 5. Public transit significantly reduces years; transportation and other policies also have encouraged fossil fuel use greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on foreign oil, both by directly and sprawling development. The combination of limited transportation reducing vehicle miles traveled as well as by supporting denser, more options and sprawl has left most people with little choice but to drive, and sustainable patterns of development. This, in turn, increases the cost- to drive long distances, to get to work, shop, or conduct other activities. effectiveness of transit, resulting in a virtuous cycle. By supporting What are the alternatives to the current unsustainable transportation patterns alternatives to suburban "sprawl," transit also reduces other environmental and policies? impacts, including loss of prime farmland, declining water quality, and harmful emissions. 456. Michael Replogle, (Dir., Institute for Transportation and Development), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE 463. Edward Markey, (U.S. Rep., Massachusetts), CONSTRUCTING A SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 2009, 34. Today local officials seeking to invest GREEN TRANSPORTATION POLICY: TRANSIT MODES AND in a transit project typically must put up one dollar of local match for every INFRASTRUCTURE, Hrg., Mar. 19, 2009, 2. Congress must reroute its dollar of Federal funds, while garnering four dollars of Federal funds for approach to transportation policy. It must be acknowledge the indivisible every dollar of local match if they are seeking to invest in a new or wider link between transportation and climate change by giving the public choices road. Today major transit capacity expansion projects face a much higher in transit. People should drive because they want to, not because there is no set of regulatory hurdles to win Federal support while highway capacity sidewalk leading to the train station or because the city bus system does not expansion projects face much lower regulatory hurdles. As a result, Federal expand into the suburbs. By doing this, transportation policy helps meet our transportation policy implicitly favors expansion of roads over expansion of President's environmental goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and put transit, exacerbating GHG emissions growth, since in the long run added a stop to global warming. road capacity induces more travel and GHG pollution, while transit investment increases transportation system GHG efficiency. 464. Peter Varga, (CEO, Interurban Transit Partnership), CONSTRUCTING A GREEN TRANSPORTATION POLICY: TRANSIT 457. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), MODES AND INFRASTRUCTURE, Hrg., Mar. 19, 2009, 18. Public EVALUATING RAIL TRANSIT CRITICISM, Aug. 20, 2010, 20. Critics transportation can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions — it can do it argue that transit is highly subsidized and automobile travel is not, implying now, and it can do it by expanding America's mobility choices. Public that transit is inefficient, inequitable and unresponsive to consumer transportation investment, as I have described, and energy efficient land use demands. This is untrue. Although transit is subsidized directly by taxes, policies and other strategies that promote transportation choices, are proven automobile is even more subsidized by a combination of general taxes spent ways to reduce emissions from the transportation sector. According to ICF on roadways (which finance about half of U.S. roadway costs), subsidized International, in their 2008 study "The Broader Connection between Public parking (partly public, and partly private in response to government Transportation, Energy Conservation and Greenhouse Gas Reductions", mandates), and through various uncompensated external costs such as public transportation use currently reduces CO2 emissions by more than 37 accident risk and pollution damages. million metric tons every year in the United States by reducing travel and congestion and supporting more efficient land use patterns. Those who 458. Education Fund, Arizona Public Interest Research Group, WHY AND choose to ride public transit reduce their carbon footprint and conserve HOW TO FUND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, Mar. 2009, 22. Transit energy by eliminating travel that would occur in a car. costs appear especially high when they are compared to the average costs of building new highway capacity, but that comparison is misleading. Most 465. Michael Replogle, (Dir., Institute for Transportation and transit is provided under peak-travel-time in urban conditions when the cost Development), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE of building new road capacity is also very expensive. When evaluating the SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 2009, 33. Policies to expand and improve public cost of adding transit capacity in Boston, for instance, it makes more sense transportation and other efficient transportation modes, such as passenger to compare per-trip construction cost to that of the Big Dig, rather than to and freight rail, are critical to reducing transportation-related GHG new rural roads in Massachusetts. emissions. There is great potential for further emission reductions; a single commuter can reduce their CO2 emissions by on average 20 pounds per 459. Marc Brenman, (Sr. Policy Adviser, The City Project), A NEW SOCIAL EQUITY AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE day, or more than 4,800 pounds annually, by commuting on public transportation instead of driving. If transit ridership in the U.S. were to TRANSPORTATION, Mar. 8, 2012, 4. Many current transportation double by 2020, transportation-related GHG emissions would fall by 83 policies and planning practices are biased in various ways that favor mobility over accessibility and automobile transport over other modes. For million metric tons each year. Tripling ridership by 2020 would cut annual GHG emissions 141.9 million metric tons per year by 2020, representing an example: A major portion of total transport funding is dedicated to roads 8 percent reduction in transportation sector emissions. and parking facilities, and cannot be used for other modes even where demand exists and they are cost effective investments. Current transport 466. Michael Replogle, (Dir., Institute for Transportation and system performance evaluation tends to use indicators, such as average Development), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE travel speeds and roadway level-of-service ratings which primarily reflect SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 2009, 33. Existing public transportation in the motor vehicle travel conditions, with little consideration given to non- United States is already making significant contributions toward GHG motorized modes. Current zoning codes require generous minimum parking emissions reduction. In 2005, public transportation reduced CO2 (the main supply, which forces households that own fewer than average automobiles GHG) emissions by 6.9 million metric tons. This includes both emissions to subsidize the parking costs of other households that own more than reductions from reduced VMT, as well as emissions reductions resulting average vehicles. Current fixed insurance pricing overcharges lower-annual- from reduced traffic congestion. On average, transit reduces nationwide mileage motorists in order to cross-subsidize higher-annual-mileage CO2 emissions by 37 million metric tons each year. This is equivalent to motorists. the combined household electricity use of New York City, Washington, D.C., Atlanta, Denver, and Los Angeles. Expanding and improving public transportation options is an important strategy to build on these achievements and continue reducing transportation-related GHG.
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467. Michael Replogle, (Dir., Institute for Transportation and 476. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL Development), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 16. Urban traffic congestion tends SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 2009, 34. Public transportation is a more efficient to maintain equilibrium. If congestion increases, people change mode of travel, but the potential of public transportation to cut GHG destinations, routes, travel time and modes to avoid delays, and if it declines emissions is much greater than the mere difference in emissions between they take additional peak-period trips. If roadway capacity increases, it will transit travel and highway travel on passenger-mile basis. Public be partly filled by this latent demand (potential additional peak-period transportation infrastructure also helps facilitate more GHG-efficient land vehicle trips). Reducing this point of equilibrium is the only way to reduce use and development patterns, which substantially increase the net congestion over the long run. The quality of travel alternatives has a reduction in transportation-related GHG emissions over time. significant effect on this equilibrium: If alternatives are inferior, few motorists will shift mode and the level of equilibrium will be high. If travel 468. Michael Replogle, (Dir., Institute for Transportation and alternatives are relatively attractive, more motorists will shift modes, Development), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 2009, 37. Expanded and improved public resulting in a lower equilibrium. Improving travel options can therefore benefit all travelers on a corridor, both those who shift modes and those transportation is a critical tool for addressing climate change in the United who continue to drive. Shifts to alternative modes not only reduce States and around the world. Combined with strategies to enhance the livability of our communities and manage our existing transportation congestion on a particular highway, they also reduce traffic discharged onto surface streets, providing "downstream" congestion reduction benefits. system, transit offers a powerful tool for addressing one of the most significant domestic sources of GHG emissions and could help address the 477. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL growing global GHG problem. TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 16. To reduce congestion, transit must attract discretionary riders (travelers who would otherwise drive), 469. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL which requires fast, comfortable, convenient and affordable service. When TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 32. High quality public transit can transit is faster than driving a portion of travelers shift mode until provide substantial energy conservation and emission reduction benefits. North American transit systems are not very energy efficient because they congestion declines to the point that transit attracts no additional riders. As a result, the faster and more comfortable the transit service, the faster the are structured to primarily to provide basic mobility to non-drivers, often in traffic speeds on parallel highways. This is indicated by studies which find sprawled locations. However, urban transit consumes a quarter as much energy as driving per passenger-mile, electric powered transit produces that door-to-door travel times for motorists tend to converge with those of grade-separated transit, and by studies such as this one which find that minimal local air and noise emissions, and transit-oriented community congestion costs are lower in cities with grade-separated transit systems. residents consume less transport fuel due to reduced driving. Bailey found that household located within 3/4-mile of rail stations save 512 gallons of 478. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL fuel annually due to reduced driving and international studies indicate that TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 20. Matched-pair analysis shows per capita energy consumption declines with more transit use. that cities with large rail transit systems have significant less per capita traffic congestion delay than similar size cities that have small or no rail 470. Michael Replogle, (Dir., Institute for Transportation and Development), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE transit. This suggests that rail transit significantly reduces congestion costs. SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 2009, 35. While investments to improve and 479. Jeff Merkley, (U.S. Senator, Oregon), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: expand pubic transportation can yield significant benefits for our climate A CORE CLIMATE SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 2009, 3. We have had a 44 and environment, they also produce other benefits to society that should not percent increase since 1998 in transit ridership and we start to see be ignored. Reducing GHG emissions through investments in clean significant savings, $1.5 billion annually on fuel, an enormous factor in an transportation and promotion of livable communities helps create jobs, economy the size of Portland, a reduction in vehicle miles traveled per lower consumer transportation costs, reduce overall municipal infrastructure capita, while the same figure has been growing substantially nationally. The costs, and provide local tax revenue and economic benefits through real Texas Transportation Institute estimates Portland has 20 percent less estate development. congestion than it would otherwise. Total carbon emissions in Portland are below the 1990 levels. 471. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 4. U.S. rail transit services require 480. Nelson/Nygaard Consulting Associates, STRANDED AT THE about $12.5 billion annual public subsidy (total capital and operating STATION: THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN PUBLIC expenses minus fares), about an extra $90 per Large Rail city resident. TRANSPORTATION, Aug. 2009, 3. According to the Texas However, economic benefits more than repay these subsidies: rail transit Transportation Institute's most recent Mobility Report, in 2007 traffic services are estimated to provide $19.4 billion in annual congestion cost delays cost residents of the 439 largest urban areas in the U.S. 4.2 billion savings, $8.0 billion in roadway cost savings, $12.1 billion in parking cost hours—but transit reduced delays by 610 million hours, or 15 percent. The savings, $22.6 billion in consumer cost savings, and $50 billion in traffic value of the additional travel delay and fuel that would have been consumed accident cost savings. Rail transit also tends to provide economic if there were no public transportation service would be an additional $13.7 development benefits, increasing business activity and tax revenues. It can billion. Of course, buses get stuck in traffic, too. But, since transit riders be a catalyst for community redevelopment. Additional, potentially large don't have to drive, they can spend their time in traffic working, reading, or benefits include improved mobility for non-drivers, increased community just relaxing. Transit doesn't just reduce congestion; it also offers an livability and improved public health. alternative to congestion. 472. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL 481. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 55. From a household's TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 46. As this report shows, cities perspective, rail transit provides a positive return on investment. Direct with well-established rail transit have substantially lower per capita traffic transportation cost savings average about $450 annually per capita. Rail congestion delay than cities with smaller or no rail system. Cities with new transit tends to increase regional employment, business activity and or expanding rail transit systems often experience reductions in vehicle productivity. It can contribute to urban redevelopment. Property values ownership and use along rail corridors, attributed to a combination of transit increase near rail stations. Quality transit improves mobility for non-drivers, improvements and transit-oriented development. reduces chauffeuring responsibilities for drivers, improves community 482. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), livability and improves public health. EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, 473. Wade Henderson, (President, Leadership Conference on Civil and June 14, 2010, 12. Public transportation and transit-oriented development Human Rights), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: PRIORITIES AND tend to increase physical activity, since most public transit trips involve CHALLENGES FOR REAUTHORIZATION, Hrg., May 19, 2011, 105. walking links, transit-oriented development includes walking and cycling Funding for biking, walking, and public transportation infrastructure puts improvements, and transit systems often provide amenities such as bike people to work; provides safe, low-cost transportation choices; reduces racks on buses and lockers at stations. Several targeted studies indicate that dependency on oil; and leverages private investment. For every $1 invested public transit travel significantly increases physical activity. in public transportation, $4 in economic returns is generated. 474. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 16. Congestion is a non-linear function: once a roadway reaches capacity even a small reduction in volumes can significantly reduce delays. For example, a 5% reduction in peak-hour traffic volumes on a road at 90% capacity can reduce delay by 20% or more. Transit can provide significant congestion reduction benefits, even if it only carries a small portion of total regional travel, because it offers an alternative on the most congested corridors. Reducing just a few percent of vehicles on such roads can significantly reduce total regional congestion costs. 475. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 16. Grade-separated transit acts as a pressure-relief value, reducing the point of congestion equilibrium, as described in the box below. Although congestion never disappears, it is far less intense than would occur if such transit did not exist.
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483. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), 490. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, June 14, 2010, 12-13. Although North Americans only walk an average of June 14, 2010, 4. Travel activity affects public health in several ways. about 6 daily minutes overall, public transit users spend a median of 19 Figure 2 indicates ways that travel activity affects the ten leading causes of daily minutes walking, which nearly achieves the target of 22 daily minutes Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL, which takes into account age of death of moderate physical activity. Using pedometers and surveys to track and therefore reflects the greater costs to society of risks to younger walking activity, Wener and Evans found that train commuters averaged people). For example, pollution contributes to cancer and congenital 30% more walking, more frequently reported walking for 10 minutes or anomalies (birth defects), and sedentary living (inadequate physical more, and were 4 times more likely to achieve the 10,000 daily steps activity) contributes to heart disease and strokes. Transport activity affects recommended for fitness and health, than car commuters. An Atlanta, five of these health risks, including the three largest, which cause more than Georgia travel survey found that public transportation users are more likely 60% of total potential years of life lost. to walk, walk longer average distances, and are more likely to meet recommended physical activity targets by walking than non-transit users. 491. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL They found that transit users average 1.7 daily kilometers of walking a day, TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 32. Transit oriented development tends to reduce short vehicle trips which have high per-mile energy which represents approximately two-thirds the recommended physical consumption and emission rates due to cold starts and congested conditions. activity target, and is ten times greater than the 0.16 kilometers of walking averaged by non-transit users. Public transit travel increased walking As a result, each 1% of mileage reduced typically reduces air emissions by 2-3%. activity for all income classes, as illustrated in Figure 11, indicating that encouraging transit travel can support public health for a variety of 492. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL demographic groups. TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 32. Rail tends to reduce emissions in densely populated areas, such as commercial centers and transit 484. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), terminals, and so reduces people's exposure to harmful emissions such as EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, CO, toxics and particulates, compared with conventional diesel buses. June 14, 2010, 13. Research also suggests that obesity rates tend to be inversely related to use of alternative modes (walking, cycling and public 493. Scott Bernstein, (President, Center for Neighborhood Technology), transit), as indicated in Figure 12. Rundle, et al. (2007) found that New WHAT WE LEARNED FROM THE STIMULUS, JAN. 2010, 2. The data York City residents' Body Mass Index (BMI) ratings tend to decline tell us that every billion dollars in public transportation investments made as significantly with greater subway and bus stop density, higher population of October 31 2009 produced roughly an additional 8,000 job-months density, and more mixed land use in their neighborhood. compared to highway projects. ARRA transportation funds have so far gone disproportionately to highways. If the total road + public transportation 485. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), funding in the just-passed House jobs bill were invested equally in public EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, June 14, 2010, 14. People sometimes fear that these health benefits may be transportation and highways, the same outlay would produce 71,415 additional job-months, equivalent to year-round employment for 5,951 offset by other risks, such as increased pedestrian and cycling accidents, or additional people. transit passenger assaults, but empirical evidence indicates that shifts alternative modes tends to increase longevity overall. Although people 494. William Millar, (President, American Public Transportation should practice reasonable caution when walking, cycling and riding public Association), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: PRIORITIES AND transport, in general, shifts from driving to these modes increases overall CHALLENGES FOR REAUTHORIZATION, Hrg., May 19, 2011, 22. health and safety. Now, we know that transit not only is good for all the reasons I have mentioned, but it also provides jobs. For every $1 billion invested through 486. Clinton Andrews, (Prof., Urban Planning, Rutgers U.), PUBLIC the Federal transit program, some 36,000 jobs are created and maintained. TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, APTA has recommended that Congress authorize the investment of $123 2009, 40. Transit reduces road congestion, delays, accidents, and pollution. Transit stabilizes and increases property values. Transit provides mobility billion over the next 6 years. The President's budget has suggested $119 billion. That would be fine with us as well. We need to make sure that there options for children, the elderly, and others who cannot drive or afford a is a good, solid source of revenue behind this, and to provide this, we car. Transit helps people live more actively, thereby reducing obesity and related health problems. Transit offers scale economies that are unavailable believe it is time to update the Federal fuel tax. It was last raised in 1993. To have that purchasing power replaced, we think it needs to be indexed for in other transportation modes. Transit improves energy security because its the future, but we think there are other ideas out there that are necessary as rolling stock can be readily converted to non-petroleum fuels. A recent, and very rigorous, economic analysis of the net internal and external benefits of well. transit has concluded that current subsidies to transit in U.S. cities are far 495. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE below their optimal levels." EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, 2011, 105. Urban transport systems based on a combination of 487. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, subways, light rail, bus lines, bicycle pathways, and pedestrian walkways offer the best of all possible worlds in providing mobility, low-cost June 14, 2010, 25. Public transportation can provide significant health transportation, and a healthy urban environment. benefits. People who live or work in communities with high quality public transportation tend to own fewer vehicles, drive less, and use alternative 496. Michael Replogle, (Dir., Institute for Transportation and modes more than they would in more automobile-oriented locations. This Development), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE can provide large reductions in traffic crashes and pollution emissions, SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 2009, 34. In addition to incorporating more increases in physical fitness and mental health, and improved access to transportation options, including transit, such "livable communities" allow healthy food, housing and medical care. These health benefits are families to live closer to their daily needs such as schools, jobs, shopping, significant in magnitude compared with other planning objectives, but are recreation, health care, and other services. This has a compounding effect often overlooked or undervalued in conventional transport planning. on reducing GHG emissions by reducing the overall amount that people must drive in four key ways. In addition to allowing people to use efficient 488. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL public transportation for some of their travel needs, livable communities TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 38. Since most transit trips also reduce the length of car trips that are taken, cut down on vehicle-hours involve walking or cycling links, and transit oriented development improves walking and cycling conditions, it tends to improve public health. of travel due to less traffic congestion, and eliminate the need for some motor vehicle trips altogether. For example, according to the Center for Researchers from the University of Pennsylvania, Drexel University and the Transit Oriented Development, of Americans who live near public rail RAND Corporation found that construction of a light-rail transit (LRT) system increased physical activity (walking) and reduced users weight and transit, 33 percent regularly use it, and 44 percent also regularly travel by walking or cycling. obesity rates. Specifically, before-and-after surveys of Charlotte, North Carolina LRT passengers found that body mass index declined an average 497. Nelson/Nygaard Consulting Associates, STRANDED AT THE of 1.18 kg/m2 compared to non-LRT users in the same area over a 12-18 STATION: THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN PUBLIC month period, equivalent to a loss of 6.45 lbs for a person who is 5'5. LRT TRANSPORTATION, Aug. 2009, 3. Fundamentally, public transportation users were also 81% less likely to become obese over time. is a means to provide mobility—it ensures access to jobs, schools and services for all members of our society, and serves to reduce traffic 489. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, congestion. But it also improves the quality of our lives in ways that may be less obvious. Public investment in transit is a catalyst for private investment June 14, 2010, 1. High quality public transportation (convenient, and economic growth. The more we invest in transit, the safer and healthier comfortable, fast rail and bus transport) and transit oriented development (walkable, mixed-use communities located around transit stations) tend to we all become. And if we are to prevent climate change, transit will have to play an essential role. affect travel activity in ways that provide large health benefits, including reduced traffic crashes and pollution emissions, increased physical fitness, 498. Michael Replogle, (Dir., Institute for Transportation and improved mental health, improved basic access to medical care and healthy Development), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE food and increased affordability which reduces financial stress to lower- SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 2009, 8. The 2008 Growing Cooler study found income households. that best practice transportation and livable community policies together can reduce transportation greenhouse gases up to 38 percent. Such investments also create more middle-class jobs per dollar of spending than expanding roads and cut consumer transportation, health costs, and infrastructure costs.
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499. Larry Hanley, (Pres., Amalgamated Transit Union), PUBLIC 507. Siena Kaplan, (Analyst, Illinois Public Interest Research Group), TRANSPORTATION: PRIORITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR GETTING ON TRACK: KEY PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS REAUTHORIZATION, Hrg., May 19, 2011, 59. Millions of times each AND THEIR BENEFITS FOR ILLINOIS, May 2009, 16. For decades, day, someone's spouse, child, grandparent, or friend gets on a bus or train transit-oriented development (TOD) has been used to create thriving urban and arrives at their destination safely due to the dedication and and suburban corridors in cities. Its basic idea is both simple and sensible: professionalism of the hundreds of thousands of transit workers in this mixed-use zoning around a major transit station encourages compact, country. While more than 30,000 people are killed on America's highways walkable development that is good for people, businesses and the each year, the number of annual customer fatalities on public transportation environment alike. In the TOD corridors of cities like Portland, Oregon, and can usually be counted on one hand. Even under the most stressful Arlington, Virginia, a combination of mixed business and residential circumstances, the majority of our members perform their jobs in a safe, buildings, easy transit and pedestrian access, and attractive public spaces efficient manner, compiling a safety record that we are quite proud of. foster compact growth and strengthen community identity. Chicago can use TOD concepts to springboard smarter, more appealing growth, especially in 500. Nelson/Nygaard Consulting Associates, STRANDED AT THE its suburban and exurban centers. STATION: THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, Aug. 2009, 5. Transit use also improves public 508. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), safety by reducing vehicle crashes, which are the leading cause of death for EVALUATING RAIL TRANSIT CRITICISM, Aug. 20, 2010, 3. Transit- Americans between the ages of five and 34. More than 40,000 Americans oriented neighborhoods, with good transit and mixed land use, have far are killed annually in car crashes," costing a total of $164 billion." The lower vehicle ownership and use, and more walking, cycling and public National Safety Council, however, has found that riding a bus is 25 times transit use than other areas. Residents of areas with high quality transit drive safer than being in a car." 23% less, and residents of areas with high quality public transit and mixed land use drive 43% less than elsewhere in the region, indicating that land 501. Peter Rogoff, (Administrator, Federal Transit Administration), RAIL use and transportation factors have about the equal impacts on travel MODERNIZATION: GETTING TRANSIT BACK ON TRACK, Hrg., Aug. 4, 2009, 7. When you move people from transit back to highways, you activity. have degraded safety because you are about, based on the recent numbers, 509. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), about 45 times more likely to die from an accident on a per passenger mile EVALUATING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HEALTH BENEFITS, basis on the highways than in transit. So I think it becomes a safety critical June 14, 2010, 7. Transit-oriented development tends to provide particularly issue. large safety benefits. People who live or work in transit oriented communities tend to drive fewer annual miles, drive at lower speeds, and 502. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL have better travel options that allow them to avoid high risk driving, such as TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 30. Rail transit cities have significantly lower per capita traffic death rates, as illustrated in Figures 27 after drinking alcohol or when ill. Although crash rates tend to increase with urban densities due to more frequent interactions among vehicles, crash and 28. Large Rail cities average 7.5 traffic fatalities per 100,000 severity and casualty rates (injuries and deaths) are higher in lower density population (7.9 excluding New York), Small Rail cities average 9.9, and Bus Only cities average 11.7, a 40% higher rate. If Large Rail cities had the areas due to higher speeds and slower emergency response. In other words, urban residents tend to have many minor crashes, while suburban and rural same fatality rate as Bus Only cities there would be about 2,500 more residents have fewer but more severe crashes, resulting in higher per capita annual traffic deaths, plus increased disabilities, injuries and property damages. This represents $50 billion in annual savings, based on USDOT disability and fatality rates. Since transit ridership tends to increase with urban density, transit is associated with higher crash rates (mostly minor recommended values for crash reduction benefits. collision that damage property but cause no injuries) but lower casualty 503. Siena Kaplan, (Analyst, Illinois Public Interest Research Group), rates (serious injuries and deaths). As a result, total per capita traffic GETTING ON TRACK: KEY PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS fatalities (including transit and automobile occupants, and pedestrians) AND THEIR BENEFITS FOR ILLINOIS, May 2009, 11. Public decline significantly as transit ridership increases in a community, as transportation provides a host of other important, if difficult to quantify, indicated in Figure 6. benefits. Transit provides a source of mobility to the poor, elderly, children and disabled, many of whom cannot afford a car or cannot drive. 510. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), THE FIRST CASUALTY OF A NON-EXISTENT WAR, Mar. 11, 2011, 21. As Investments in transit have helped spark the economic revitalization of discussed in my report, high quality public transit tends to reduce per capita areas around transit stations, helping to create vibrant communities that are less dependent on the automobile—a big advantage for economic vehicle travel and fuel use. My research indicates that residents of urban regions with high quality rail transit drive about 20% fewer annual miles development in an era of higher fuel prices. Transit riders are free from the than residents of regions that lack such rail, and residents of transit-oriented responsibilities of driving, meaning that they can use their time to read, chat, catch up on the day's news or, in an increasing number of transit neighborhoods typically drive 40-60% less than residents of automobile- dependent areas, resulting in larger energy savings. vehicles, use wireless Internet to check e-mail or do important work. 511. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL 504. The Leadership Conference Education Fund, WHERE WE NEED TO TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 46. Commuters are increasingly GO: A CIVIL RIGHTS ROADMAP FOR TRANSPORTATION EQUITY, March 2011, 6. People in neighborhoods with plentiful transit options spend selecting alternative modes. Transit ridership rose by 9.5% in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year, and was 24.6% higher just nine percent of their incomes on transportation, compared to the than 2002. Bus trips increased by 11.1%, and rail trips increased by 5.4%. A average American family's expenditure of 19 percent. In car-dependent outer suburbs, families spend 25 percent of their incomes on transportation. customer survey found that that 42% of riders on the SkyTrain, 49% on the West Coast Express, 35% on the 99B bus route and 25% on the 98B route 505. Michael Replogle, (Dir., Institute for Transportation and switched from commuting by car. "The numbers show that demand for Development), PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE public transit continues to grow in response to the significant expansion of SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 2009, 35. Transportation costs are a large part of services." part of most household budgets. However, transportation costs are lower for 512. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL households in more livable communities with greater access to a variety of TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 39. Rail transit tends to provide transportation option, including public transportation. Such households can spend less than 10 percent of their income on transportation, while better service quality that attracts more riders, particularly discretionary users. For example, a free bus line to downtown Tacoma, Washington households in areas without transportation options beyond auto travel can attracted less than 500 daily riders, but when it was replaced with a light rail spend more than 25 percent. Moreover, inefficient land use patterns and development have been shown to increase the cost of housing by 8 percent, line, ridership increased to more than 2,400 a day. Rail can carry more passengers per vehicle which reduces labor costs, requires less land per or $13,000 per dwelling unit. peak passenger-trip, and causes less noise and air pollution compared with 506. Nelson/Nygaard Consulting Associates, STRANDED AT THE diesel buses. As a result, rail is more suitable for high-density areas. Rail STATION: THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN PUBLIC transit is considered a prestige service that gains more public support, and TRANSPORTATION, Aug. 2009, 4. Transit can also save families a great provides a catalyst for urban redevelopment and more compact, multi- deal of money. One recent study found that, by avoiding auto-related costs modal development patterns. such as fuel, parking, payments, insurance, and repair, the average American household can save close to $8,700 per year, or $724 per month,' 513. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 18. Several studies using various through transit use. This figure is unsurprising when you consider that the methodologies indicate that high quality transit tends to reduce vehicle average annual cost to own and operate a car, according to the American Automobile Association, is nearly $10,000. The Center for Neighborhood traffic congestion on a corridor. The Texas Transportation Institute's (TTI's) annual Urban Mobility Study provides several congestion indicators. Some, Technology, meanwhile, has found that families living in "location such as per-capita congestion delay or cost, are more appropriate than others efficient" areas where public transit is available spend as little as 15 percent of their household incomes on transportation—or about half as much as for evaluating transit impacts because they account for time savings resulting from mode shifts and more accessible land use. Measured this transportation can cost families in "inefficient" locations without transit." way, Large Rail cities have substantially less congestion than comparable size cities, as illustrated in Figure 13.
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514. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), RAIL 523. Wendell Cox, (Visiting, Institute for Economic Policy Studies, TRANSIT IN AMERICA, Jan. 16, 2012, 18. In Bus Only and Small Rail Heritage Foundation), HERITAGE BACKGROUNDER NO. 2515, Feb. 7, cities, traffic congestion costs tend to increase with city size, as indicated by 2011, 10. If rail had removed cars traveling into Washington, fewer cars the dashed curve. But Large Rail cities do not follow this pattern. They have would be on the road. However, there are more cars, as the counts indicate. substantially lower congestion costs than comparable size cities. As a result, Moreover, as described above, work commutes by car have continued to New York and Chicago have about half the per capita congestion delay as increase at a greater rate than overall travel in each of the three newer large Los Angeles. rail metropolitan areas (Washington, Baltimore, and San Francisco). 515. Todd Litman, (Staff, Victoria Transport Policy Institute), 524. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY EVALUATING RAIL TRANSIT CRITICISM, Aug. 20, 2010, 6. Critics WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, claim that Americans will not use transit, making transit investments futile. 128. Since 1992, American cities have invested some $100 billion in urban This is untrue. Although rail generally carries only a small portion of total rail transit. Yet no rail system in the country has managed to increase regional travel, where high quality transit service is available (called transit transit's share of urban travel by even 1 percent. Between 1990 and 2005, competitive) it often carries a significant portion of travel. Cities with high the only rail region that managed to increase transit's share of commuting quality rail typically have 20-50% overall transit commute mode share, and by more than 1 percent was New York, and it did so mainly by lowering even higher rates for peak-period trips to major commercial centers. As transit fares. Meanwhile, transit actually lost shares of passenger travel and previously described, many cities experience significant transit ridership commuters in most other rail regions. Thus, rail transit promises, at best, growth after building or improving rail transit systems, indicating latent tiny gains for huge investments. demand for such service, that is, many more people would use transit if 525. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, Cato Institute), PUBLIC available. TRANSPORTATION: A CORE CLIMATE SOLUTION, Hrg., July 7, 516. Andrew Morriss, (Prof., Business, U. Alabama), THE FALSE 2009, 44. Transit subsidies have historically had only a trivial effect on PROMISE OF GREEN ENERGY, 2011, 159. Today's cars and trucks are ridership. Between 1987 and 2007, annual subsidies in real dollars grew by individually much less environmentally damaging than their predecessors. 68 percent. Yet annual ridership grew by only 18 percent. While capital The black-smoke-belching tailpipes of 1960s-era cars and trucks are no subsidies are sketchy before 1987, operating subsidies increased by 1240 more; today's automobiles and heavy duty diesel trucks are cleaner than percent since 1970. Yet ridership grew by only 45 percent. More their counterparts from 1970, 1980, or 1990. Between 1970 and 1980 alone, importantly, despite total real subsidies of well over three-quarters of a new vehicles got 96 percent cleaner with respect to hydrocarbons, 76 trillion dollars since 1970, per-capita transit ridership and passenger miles percent cleaner with respect to NOx, and 96 percent cleaner with respect to actually declined. Figure one shows that per-capita transit travel declined CO. more-or-less steadily from 1970 through 1995. Although per-capita transit usage has grown a little since 1995, it remains below 1988, and far below 517. Andrew Morriss, (Prof., Business, U. Alabama), THE FALSE 1970, levels. PROMISE OF GREEN ENERGY, 2011, 159-160. From 1980 to 2007, new vehicles got another 37 percent cleaner with respect to NOx and another 52 526. Sam Staley, (Dir., Urban Land Use Policy, Reason Foundation), percent cleaner with respect to CO. There is little pollution left to control. MOBILITY FIRST: A NEW VISION FOR TRANSPORTATION IN "Today's cars are 98 percent cleaner than those from the 1970s when GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, 2009, 156. considering conventional air pollution." Economics is working against transit. Our dynamic, decentralized life styles and work choices have created complex and variable travel patterns that 518. Andrew Morriss, (Prof., Business, U. Alabama), THE FALSE PROMISE OF GREEN ENERGY, 2011, 160-161. Air pollution in the don't lend themselves to fixed-route transit systems. Not surprisingly, transit is losing market share. Indeed, transit's share of work and total travel has developed world generally has been transformed from a visible problem fallen steadily and is currently less than half of where it was in 1960 despite with a real risk of acute injury and death into a debate over the impacts of quite small levels of pollutants. Killer smogs are no longer the concern in promising signs of stabilization in the early part of this decade. the United States, Japan, or Europe, having been relegated to the history 527. Sam Staley, (Dir., Urban Land Use Policy, Reason Foundation), books. Similarly, fuels have significantly improved. Lead in gasoline has MOBILITY FIRST: A NEW VISION FOR TRANSPORTATION IN ceased to be a major airborne pollutant; sulfur and other contaminant levels GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, 2009, 157. in both gasoline and diesel have declined dramatically; and transportation The Los Angeles Times report wasn't a fly-by-night, deadline-driven story. fuels are cleaner and less polluting in virtually every dimension than they It involved two months of investigations that included interviews of were in 1970. residents, and counting vehicle traffic and pedestrians. "The reporting showed that only a small fraction of residents shunned their cars during 519. Sam Staley, (Dir., Urban Land Use Policy, Reason Foundation), morning rush hour. Most people said that even though they lived close to MOBILITY FIRST: A NEW VISION FOR TRANSPORTATION IN transit stations, the trains weren't convenient enough, taking too long to GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, 2009, 202. Policy makers should not despair if, as expected, reducing CO emissions arrive at destinations and lacking stops near their workplaces. Many 2 complained that they didn't feel comfortable riding the MT/Vs crowded, from the transportation sector is more expensive in the short term than often slow-moving buses from transit terminals to their jobs. Moreover, the reducing greenhouse gas emissions in other sectors of the economy. Personal transportation is responsible for a relatively small share of U.S. attraction of shops and cafes that are often built into developments at transit stations can actually draw more cars to neighborhoods, putting an additional greenhouse gas emissions and provides a value on which consumers rightly traffic burden on areas that had been promised relief." place a high priority. In the long term, consumer preferences will undoubtedly change as efficient and cost-effective new vehicle technologies 528. Sam Staley, (Dir., Urban Land Use Policy, Reason Foundation), become widely available. MOBILITY FIRST: A NEW VISION FOR TRANSPORTATION IN GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, 2009, 158. 520. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY We have spent billions of dollars trying to improve transit's connectivity WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, 229. The automobile's convenience and flexibility in providing door-to-door and level of service in an effort to lure travelers out of their cars, and this strategy has failed miserably for everyone. In many of our largest cities, 25 transport on demand, rather than on someone else's timetable, makes it more percent to 70 percent of all transportation spending goes to transit systems valuable than its competitors. This flexibility gives Americans far greater choices about where they live, where they work, where they shop, and that carry one percent to two percent of travel. This approach is simply not sustainable as congestion continues to march onward and upward and more whom they visit. and more metropolitan areas approach gridlock. 521. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, 529. Wendell Cox, (Visiting, Institute for Economic Policy Studies, 152-153. Subsidies to passenger travel in 2000 averaged 0.1 cents per Heritage Foundation), HERITAGE BACKGROUNDER NO. 2515, Feb. 7, 2011, 4. There is no evidence that automobile travel has been diverted to the passenger mile for air, 0.8 cents for highways, 14 cents for Amtrak, and 50 newer rail systems. There has been virtually no net reduction in the share of cents for transit. Table 7.1 shows that, by 2006, most of these subsidies had risen, with the biggest relative increase going to air travel (mainly because automobiles used for work commutes. The number of work trips by automobile drivers (which is also the number of automobiles) rose as a airport subsidies in 2000 were anomalously low). Still, user fees are the share of total work trip travel in each of the newer large rail metropolitan main source of funds for highways and air service, while taxes provide most of the funds for transit and nearly half the funds for Amtrak. Moreover, areas, ranging from 3.3 percent in San Francisco to 16.4 percent in Baltimore and 18.5 percent in Washington, D.C. (from the last pre-rail because highways and airlines carry hundreds of times as many passenger expansion Census year, which varies by metropolitan area, as indicated in miles as transit and Amtrak, the net subsidies per passenger mile to the former are quite small. Table 1, to 2009). At the same time, transit's market share fell in each of these metropolitan areas, with losses of 6.8 percent in San Francisco, 17.6 522. Ronald Utt, (Sr. Research Fellow, Institute for Economic Policy percent in Washington, D.C., and 34.1 percent in Baltimore. Transit cannot Studies, Heritage Foundation), HERITAGE BACKGROUNDER NO. 2389, substitute for automobile use when automobile use rises more than total Mar. 19, 2010, 6. Given that more than 20 percent of federal transportation travel, as has been the case in each of the newer small rail metropolitan funding already goes to transit, which serves less than 2 percent of areas. passengers nationwide, the federal government is quite capable of squandering even more money on additional low-value and underutilized transportation projects such as HSR.
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530. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: 537. Matthew E. Kahn, (Prof., Public Affairs, UCLA), FIX IT FIRST, PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. EXPAND IT SECOND, REWARD IT THIRD: A NEW STRATEGY FOR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 33. Inefficient road pricing and AMERICA'S HIGHWAYS, Feb. 2011, 5. According to the 2010 Texas investment policies have failed to alleviate growing highway congestion Transportation Institute (TTI) Urban Mobility Report, in 1982 each and pavement damage. Consequently, truckers' costs have increased and the commuter lost 14.4 hours in congestion, while in 2009 each commuter lost quality of service to shippers, as measured by travel time, has worsened. 34 hours (or 4.8 billion hours lost in traffic nationwide). For the five most Winston and Langer estimate that the nation's truckers and shippers incur congested metropolitan areas for auto commuters (Chicago, Houston, Los annual congestion costs (in 2000 dollars) of $2.5 billion and $7.6 billion, Angeles, San Francisco and Washington, DC) the annual monetary cost of respectively. time lost per commuter varied between $1,110 and $1,738. Recent total congestion costs for urban areas are approximately $120 billion a year. At 531. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), least as important as recurring (and predictable) delay, is the unreliability of TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 101-102. The Federal Highway Trust Fund travel times, which leads travelers to leave early to guarantee being on time. The fundamental causes of these problems—underinvestment in existing (HTF) had to be rescued from insolvency in 2008, and, according to the infrastructure and the inefficient use of infrastructure that contributes to final report of the National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission (NSTIFC), "this problem will only worsen until Congress congestion—are misaligned incentives in our process for investing in infrastructure and a mispricing of use. addresses the fundamental fact that current HTF revenues are inadequate to support current federal program spending levels. Comparing estimates of 538. Samuel Sheridan, (Analyst, New America Foundation), HOW SAFE surface transportation investment needs with baseline revenue projections IS AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 68. The costs of our developed by the Commission shows a federal highway and transit funding crumbling infrastructure include wasted fuel, traffic delays and clogged gap that totals nearly $400 billion in 2010-15 and grows dramatically to ports. Congestion on America's roads results in losses between $70 to 78 about $2.3 trillion through 2035." billion every year in wasted fuel. The U.S. Transportation Department estimates freight bottlenecks waste $200 billion per year in inefficiency. 532. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND 539. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, xix. In our pursuit of growth, we have Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT forgotten about our existing transportation system, which in many instances ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS dates back over a hundred years and is the connective tissue that enables the AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 8. According to the Federal Highway movement of our nation's commerce as well as the traveling public. And in Administration, 45 percent of our nation's major roadways were in less than the process, we have begun to choke on congestion that ties up our roads good condition as of 2008. In several states, well over half of all highways and impacts our economy, as it adds untold environmental pressures on a and major roads are rough, crumbling, or riddled with potholes. For nation struggling to control its addiction to the automobile. example, according to the Federal Highway Administration, only 18 percent of highways in the state of New Jersey are in good condition. This is to say 533. Robert Poole, (Dir., Transportation Policy, Reason Foundation), REASON MAGAZINE, Feb. 23, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from nothing of the condition of our local roadway system—which no federal agency tracks. Because of the overall dire state of our roadways, the http://reason.com/archives/2012/02/2. The Texas Transportation Institute American Society of Civil Engineers gave our nation's roads a "D-minus" (ITI), which has been measuring the cost of traffic congestion in wasted time and fuel for three decades, estimates that in current dollars the traffic grade in 2009. penalty rose from $24 billion in 1982 to $115 billion in 2009 (the latest year 540. Matthew E. Kahn, (Prof., Public Affairs, UCLA), FIX IT FIRST, for which complete data are available). The average urban commuter wastes EXPAND IT SECOND, REWARD IT THIRD: A NEW STRATEGY FOR 34 hours a year in rush-hour congestion today, compared with just 14 hours AMERICA'S HIGHWAYS, Feb. 2011, 11. Although there is no transparent in 1982. top-line number that shows the scope of our maintenance deficit, the weight of the evidence indicates we are not allocating enough to maintenance. The 534. Robert Poole, (Dir., Transportation Policy, Reason Foundation), extreme case of the collapse of the I-35W Mississippi River Bridge in REASON MAGAZINE, Feb. 23, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from http://reason.com/archives/2012/02/2. If you live and work in one of the 20 Minneapolis illustrates the point. The cost of retrofitting the bridge with new gusset plates, while not free, and improving bridge redundancy (the largest metropolitan areas, you're stuck in an even worse jam. In Los bridge was designed as fracture critical, and so failure at a single point Angeles, the average commuter wastes 63 hours a year due to congestion. In Dallas/Ft. Worth, it's 48 hours a year. And in the Washington, D.C., area, would result in failure of the whole), would have been far less than the cost of rush building a new bridge (estimated at $250 million), much less the toll it's a whopping 70—almost nine full working days that drivers could have in thirteen lives and 145 injuries, in addition to the anxiety caused for back if only freeways and streets delivered motorists at the advertised speed. millions who learned about the August 1, 2007, tragedy. The bridge had been rated "structurally deficient" in 2005 (and this observation was 535. Robert Poole, (Dir., Transportation Policy, Reason Foundation), corroborated subsequently when inspections found further cracking and REASON MAGAZINE, Feb. 23, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 6, 2012 from fatigue), indicating it was in need of a major overhaul or replacement. http://reason.com/archives/2012/02/2. Congestion does far more harm than Despite its poor condition, according to Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, simply wasting time and fuel. By reducing the area you can traverse in, say, the bridge was not scheduled to be replaced until thirteen years later, in 3o minutes, congestion shrinks your "opportunity circle" of jobs, 2020. entertainment, housing, and even dating. Economists find that reduced opportunity circles due to congestion inhibit the best matches between 541. Pete Rahn, (Dir., Missouri Dept. of Transportation), INFRASTRUCTURE: REBUILDING, REPAIRING AND skilled workers and employers, reducing the economic productivity of RESTRUCTURING, 2009, 106. We have taken transportation for granted congested urban areas. The chief economist at the U.S. Department of Transportation has estimated that the true annual economic cost of in our country, and it's showing. We've demanded a lot from our roads and bridges over the years, and they're proving to us they can no longer stand congestion is at least double the $115 billion figure noted above. the strain. The 47,000-mile interstate highway system, which represents 536. David Nash, (Chair, National Research Council’s Board on about one percent of total U.S. road miles, is a prime example. The system Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment, SUSTAINABLE has almost 15,000 interchanges, many of which are wearing out or do not CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS: A FRAMEWORK FOR meet current operational standards. Foundations and bridges need to be MEETING 21ST CENTURY IMPERATIVES, 2009, 17. Domestically, repaired, reconstructed or replaced. congested highways, airports, and shipping terminals also impede the efficient movement of raw materials, meat, produce, and durable goods 542. James Oberstar, (Former Chair, House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure), TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING destined for local and regional markets. It has been estimated that highway INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, xi. Nearly sixty congestion costs Americans approximately $65 billion per year (2005 dollars) and wastes 2.3 billion gallons of gasoline. The additional costs years after much of the interstate highway system was constructed in the 1950s and 1960s, we are now seeing many facilities become stretched to the incurred by such congestion increase the costs of food, fuel, and other limit of their design life and beyond. The world-class surface transportation commodities for every consumer. If the United States is to remain as economically competitive as possible, more efficient methods to transport system passed on by previous generations of Americans has reached the age of obsolescence and now needs to be rebuilt. Mounting costs just to goods and services and additional corridors may be needed. maintain these assets are consuming a growing share of the nation's overall investment in surface transportation infrastructure. Meanwhile, the demands placed on the network and the cost to address new challenges continue to grow more rapidly each year. 543. Pete Rahn, (Dir., Missouri Dept. of Transportation), INFRASTRUCTURE: REBUILDING, REPAIRING AND RESTRUCTURING, 2009, 106. The American Society of Civil Engineers recently gave the nation's overall transportation network a D and cited the need to invest $1.6 trillion in upgrades over the next 20 years. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Future Highway and Public Transportation Finance Study suggests the U.S. needs to invest an additional $50 billion a year in our highway and public transportation systems just to maintain their current performance and more than $100 billion annually to improve the performance of the highway and transit systems.
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544, Lewis Solomon, (Prof., Law, George Washington U.), THE PROMISE 551. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group AND PERILS OF INFRASTRUCTURE PRIVATIZATION: THE Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT MACQUARIE MODEL, 2009, 105. Pavements in the U.S. interstate and ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS primary road systems were designed on the basis of a fifty-year initial AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 16. Roads in poor condition damage service life. As these major arterials approach the end of their typical life vehicles—damage that costs motorists heavily. Accidents caused by poor cycles, they will need expensive overhauls. According to one federal road conditions can cost individual drivers and their insurance companies commission, 15 percent of America's roads are now in poor shape. About thousands of dollars. Even without a collision, drivers pay the repair costs 27 percent of U.S. bridges are "structurally deficient" or "functionally of tires and shock absorbers that are worn out and destroyed by rough and obsolete." uneven roads. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) estimates that poor road conditions 545. Steven Malanga, (Sr. Fellow, Manhattan Institute), HOW SAFE IS cost U.S. motorists $67 billion a year in repairs and operating costs—or an AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 71-72. Nearly a fifth of America's roads are now considered in poor shape and about one-in-four average of $335 per motorist. bridges is rated "structurally deficient?' The U.S. Department of 552. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), Transportation estimates that the cost to fix these problems is a staggering TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND $460 billion. The tab grows far larger when you add in the hundreds of THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 178. During this first half of the twenty-first billions to build the new transportation infrastructure that's needed to handle century, our country will grow by over 100 million people. We will build the country's growth. over "427 billion square feet" of new and rehabilitated homes, offices, hospitals, hotels, and schools, as well as roads, bridges, and airports in 546. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT places not on the map today." We have gone from a mostly rural to a largely urban society. Our near-total reliance on the automobile has placed an ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS inordinate stress on roads into, out of, and around metropolitan areas, which AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 16. Roads in disrepair create unsafe driving conditions that can lead to accidents. Without regular maintenance, roads has led to unprecedented congestion. The major metropolitan areas contain almost 60 percent of the total U.S. population, yet they have over 85 percent turn into crumbled asphalt, erosion narrows shoulders and lanes, damaged of three critical transportation signifiers: traffic congestion, transit ridership, drainage systems create hazardous floods, and broken retaining walls can allow boulders and other obstacles to obstruct a safe path. These accidents and population exposure to auto-related air pollution. can cause injury and death. The American Society of Civil Engineers notes 553. Randal O’Toole, (Sr. Fellow, CATO Institute), GRIDLOCK: WHY that "roadway conditions are a significant factor in about one-third of traffic WE'RE STUCK IN TRAFFIC AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT, 2009, 25. fatalities." Poor road conditions contributed to more than 11,000 of the Congestion has grown, on average, 7 percent per year, and the cost of 34,000 highway fatalities in 2009. congestion has grown faster than 10 percent per year. The reason for this growth is simple: traffic on urban highways has increased 3 percent per 547. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group year, while the number of lane-miles on those roads has grown at only 1.4 Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS percent per year. Congestion growth is like the proverbial frog in the pot of heated water. The difference between 3 percent and 1.4 percent does not AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 16. Roadways in disrepair cause traffic and seem like much after one year. But this difference accumulates delays. Drivers attempting to navigate a section of damaged road sometimes swerve to avoid potholes, or lose control of the vehicle while traveling over exponentially, and after 20 years or so, it can become huge. excessively rough and uneven patches of pavement. Resulting accidents can 554. A.G. Sulzberger, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Nov. 23, 2010, A23. drastically slow or stop traffic. Even without an accident, drivers must slow ''In reality, infrastructure spending is what should absolutely not be down to maneuver safely and comfortably through or around a section of earmarked,'' said Steve Ellis, vice-president of Taxpayers for Common rough road. Not only do these obstructions slow the driver, but they also Sense, a nonprofit group that opposes earmarks. ''We need to make these cause bottlenecks that can slow the traffic behind them, and create traffic spending decisions on merit -- prioritizing need like safety and congestion jams. and economic impact rather than the muscle of the politicians involved.'' 548. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group 555. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 44-45. Although the actual AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 3. U.S. transportation policy fails to properly planning of highways is usually left to the states and MPOs, Congress has emphasize highway and bridge maintenance. Responsibility for the road increasingly involved itself directly through "demonstration projects" or and bridge crisis begins at the top, with federal transportation policies that "high-priority projects," which receive earmarked funds in long-term allocate vast amounts of money to the states with little direction and no transportation bills. Demonstration projects were originally intended in the accountability. 1970s to fund experimental and promising highway technologies or management techniques, but beginning with the 1987 Surface 549. Roger Millar, (Analyst, Taxpayers for Common Sense), REPAIR Transportation and Uniform Relocation Assistance Act, they became a PRIORITIES: TRANSPORTATION SPENDING STRATEGIES TO SAVE TAXPAYER DOLLARS AND IMPROVE ROADS, June 2011, 5. broad tool for influential legislators to bring transportation dollars, better known as earmarks or pork barrel spending, back to their district. The 1997 Federal funds built a large portion of these major state roads, and allowing Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century was larded with some $9 states to under-invest in repair and preservation greatly reduces the value of these federal investments. In addition, roads in poor condition can billion of pork, and the 2005 Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act contains some $24 billion worth of earmarked negatively impact interstate trade and travel, the effects of which can be felt projects. across large regions and across state lines. State leaders make a number of decisions about transportation spending that shape their longterm financial 556. Marcia Clemmitt, (Analyst, CQ Researcher), URBAN ISSUES, 2009, trajectories. All 50 states and the District of Columbia can benefit from 126. So-called pork-barrel spending — inserted into congressional bills as aligning transportation policies with capital spending decisions to make sure "earmarks" — is a big problem, says the Reason Foundation's Poole. roads are kept in good repair. Doing so can prevent neglected preservation Ostensibly, members of Congress direct funding to specific local projects to from undermining the value of their own infrastructure investments. please constituents. But "when I talk to [state transportation] directors, they say the projects they get in the federal bills are . . . way, way down the list," 550. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Poole says. Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS 557. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 2. According to the Federal Highway Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT Administration, 45 percent (or more than 150,000 miles) of federal ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS highways and major roads were in poor, mediocre or fair condition as of AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 21. According to the Center for Public 2008. Metropolitan areas tend to have the roughest roads. In 2008, nearly Integrity, many real estate or construction interests that donate to candidates two-thirds of urban roadways offered a poor, mediocre or fair ride. Major for office often have specific projects in mind that they are hoping to cities—including Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., New advance. For example, a New York developer, Concord Associates, gave York City and New Orleans—had the worst road conditions. Typical $100,000 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. That same drivers in these cities pay as much as $750 per year in extra vehicle developer benefited from an earmark placed in the 2005 transportation maintenance costs due to rough road conditions. The American Association authorization bill by Senator Charles Schumer of New York to study of State Highway and Transportation Officials estimates that poor road widening Route 17 to the Catskills, where Concord Associates is planning a conditions cost U.S. motorists $67 billion a year in repairs and operating huge mountain resort and casino. Concord Associates also hired a former costs—an average of $335 per motorist. state legislator as a lobbyist, paying $350,000 in the first year. Similarly, Florida developer Daniel Aronoff held a $40,000 fundraiser for House Transportation Committee Chairman Don Young of Alaska. Afterward, Representative Young inserted a $10 million earmark for a road project in Florida into the language of SAFTEA-LU, against the wishes of local transportation officials.
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558. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group 566. Yonah Freemark, (Journalist), U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 78- Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT 79. For decades, U.S. transportation policy prioritized the completion of the ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS Interstate Highway System, whose multi-lane freeways now span out across AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 30. Members of Congress also earmark funds the country like a spider's web. The program was easy to understand: in the annual bill that appropriates funding for transportation programs. In drivers paid taxes on their gasoline consumption, Washington replenished 2008, just a few months after the tragic Minneapolis bridge collapse which the Highway Trust Fund, and revenues were redistributed to the states to killed 13 and sparked alarm and outrage across the country, Congress construct new roads. The system was self-reinforcing: the more people in directed only 74 of the 704 highway projects earmarked in the annual cars, the more concrete could be laid. At last count, the network was more transportation appropriations bill to repair or maintain a bridge, tunnel or than 45,000 miles long. The current decline in car use spells disaster for the overpass. In other words, only about one in 10 of the projects, and about 10 Fund. Having already obligated billions to states ready to build new roads percent of the funding, focused on fixing the nation's crumbling bridge and transit systems, Congress in 2008 had no choice but to dip into the infrastructure. The delegation from Mississippi, for instance, secured general treasury and authorize an $8 billion infusion of income tax revenues funding for 19 earmarked projects at a cost of $29 million, and despite to fill the Fund's emptied coffers. In 2009, facing the same difficulties, the having a backlog of over 3,000 structurally-deficient bridges in the state, government repeated the action—twice. But Congress has yet to find a none of their earmarks went to bridge repair. The majority of the $570 long-term way to replenish the Fund. million went for new highways and construction of other new highway capacity. 567. Andrew Hermann, (Board Member, American Society of Civil Engineers), HOW SAFE IS AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?, 2009, 30. 559. WASHINGTON POST, Feb. 12, 2012, A16. Consider the case of Rep. The Highway Trust Fund is in danger of insolvency (as other trust funds Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), who obtained a $900,000 earmark to may be in the future) and must receive an immediate boost in revenue to resurface about two dozen roads in his state - including a quarter-mile ensure success of multi-modal transportation programs. In fact, the Office residential loop on which he owns a home. Mr. Thompson said he did not of Management and Budget estimates that in FY 2009 the Highway ask for his street to be paved; the local mayor, who described Mr. Account of the Highway Trust Fund will be in the red by as much as $4.3 Thompson as a close friend, said the congressman "didn't have anything to billion. do with where the asphalt went." But constituents can't be blamed for 568. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group wondering if Mr. Thompson, having secured the money for repaving, Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT received preferential treatment. ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS 560. WASHINGTON POST, Feb. 12, 2012, A16. Reporters Scott Higham, AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 6. The Highway Trust Fund—the primary pot Kimberly Kindy and David S. Fallis scoured disclosure reports and public of money funding transportation improvements in the United States—ran records and found 33 lawmakers who had steered more than $300 million in out of money in September 2008. Overall spending from the trust fund has earmarks or other spending to projects located within two miles of exceeded revenues since 2002. Meanwhile, Congress has been plugging the properties they own. Equally, if not more troubling, the investigation gap with revenues out of the General Fund. The Congressional Budget identified 16 lawmakers who have taken actions benefiting entities Office has estimated that if current spending patterns continue, the nation connected to their immediate families. The importance of these findings is would have to come up with another $100 billion between 2010 and 2018 to not necessarily that they demonstrate out-and-out corruption as that they fund federal transportation activities. Where that money could come from is illustrate the inevitable ethical questions intertwined with congressional anyone's guess. earmarking. 569. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: 561. WASHINGTON POST, Feb. 12, 2012, A16. The Constitution grants PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. Congress the power of the purse, and earmarks reflect the exercise of that TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 51. Instead of making effective use authority. On the other hand, the explosion of earmarked spending threatens of the price mechanism to optimize highway performance, policymakers to elevate political clout over the merits of a project. The existence of have pursued an expensive strategy of increasing highway spending. Capital earmarks may not increase overall spending, but they may send limited and maintenance expenditures must be made because roads and bridges dollars to where they're not most needed. When bridges are crumbling, the deteriorate and some highways need to be rehabilitated and expanded, but country cannot afford bridges to nowhere. inefficient policies have significantly inflated the cost of capital and labor inputs that are required to maintain and expand the road system. 562. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT 570. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 21. According to a U.S. PIRG Education Fund TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 51. Instead of building thicker analysis, in 2008, highway interests gave more than $80 million to pavements to realize long-run maintenance cost savings, which would not candidates for federal office and more than $50 million to candidates for produce immediate political payoffs, state highway officials have preferred state office. In state elections, highway and construction interests outspent to spend less money on up-front capital costs—thus trading off thinner the defense industry and the energy and natural resources industries. pavements for more opportunities to pursue more politically remunerative projects within a fixed budget. State DOTs may also find it advantageous to 563. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group draw attention to their worn-out roads to justify requests for a larger budget. Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS 571. John McCarron, (Prof., Urban Affairs, Roosevelt U.), U.S. AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 20. Federal and state transportation officials INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 17. The gas tax, the primary source of federal are subject to pressure from elected officials and special interests, which transportation funding, was last raised to 18.4 cents a gallon in 1993. Its tends to tilt the playing field toward the construction of new and wider yield has been declining in real dollars ever since, what with creeping highways and bridges. New and wider highways feature high-profile inflation and improving fuel efficiency. launches, ribbon cuttings, and sometimes are even named after the politicians who secured their funding. They also satisfy the powerful 572. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), interests that make up the highway lobby, who often advocate for TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 103. Given the commission's estimate, transportation dollars to go to projects from which they will benefit. however, that "the State and local share of additional investment 564. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: requirements could range between the equivalent of 34 and 63 cents per PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. gallon of fuel tax," it is clear that—especially for states and municipalities TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 39. The end of September 2008, the that have not developed significant sources of highway revenue other than federal Highway Trust Fund's highway account ran out of money (the fund state gasoline taxes—raising taxes and fees within politically feasible limits also contains a transit account), hampering the completion of road and will provide only a portion, and perhaps a small one, of the additional bridge construction projects across the country. The stimulus bill will help revenues needed. finance some highway projects in the near term, but the long-run prospects for highway finance are of great concern. 573. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND 565. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, xxvii. Due to the nation's economic PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. collapse, a more cautious and poorer American population has traveled less, TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 45. Unfortunately, highway policy reducing the money collected through fuel taxes and tolls that are supposed has not evolved as vehicle traffic has grown and as roads have deteriorated. to provide most of the funds for maintaining our roads. Politicians have Moreover, the Highway Trust Fund is now running a deficit after years of been loath to raise gasoline taxes, while drivers have not been given building up unspent balances. Highway policy currently faces the daunting adequate incentives to purchase more fuel-efficient vehicles. And if they challenge of significantly improving the condition and performance of the were to do so in large numbers, which would have a great effect on the road system without adding to government budget deficits. environment and cause a reduction in the need for imported oil, that too would have an inverse impact on funding for road maintenance, as revenues from gasoline taxes would decline.
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574. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), 582. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 71-72. Declining revenues from gasoline ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS taxes owing to the greater fuel efficiency of vehicles has been another AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 19. States continue to direct large amounts of significant challenge for states, as it has been for the federal government's capital into building new roadways and expanding existing ones. Since Highway Trust Fund. This is true despite the fact that politicians at the state 1985, the nation has built more than 130,000 miles of roadway—enough to level have shown a surprising willingness to increase their gasoline taxes circle the globe more than five times. In 2008, states spent more than $15 for the better part of the last thirty years. As a result—in a particularly stark billion in capital to build new roads, reconstruct roads with added capacity, illustration of how highway users in America continue to be undercharged or perform major widening projects. Of federal capital funds committed to for the upkeep of roads and bridges—the costs to motorists have dropped specific roadway projects by the states in 2008, the Federal Highway sharply since the dawn of the interstate era. Administration classified 41 percent, or almost $7 billion, as going toward expanded capacity. 575. Roger Millar, (Analyst, Taxpayers for Common Sense), REPAIR PRIORITIES: TRANSPORTATION SPENDING STRATEGIES TO 583. Roger Millar, (Analyst, Taxpayers for Common Sense), REPAIR SAVE TAXPAYER DOLLARS AND IMPROVE ROADS, June 2011, 13. PRIORITIES: TRANSPORTATION SPENDING STRATEGIES TO Gas tax revenues are decreasing. Federal and state fuel tax receipts account SAVE TAXPAYER DOLLARS AND IMPROVE ROADS, June 2011, 6. for 24% of total state transportation revenues nationwide, and several states For decades, states have invested disproportionately in road expansion and rely on gas tax revenues for over 40% of their transportation funding. In the left regular repair and preservation underfunded. Between 2004 and 2008, past several years, however, gas tax revenue has failed to adequately fund most states spent more on expansion than repair and added a cumulative the nation's transportation demands, and states can expect to receive fewer 23,300 miles of roads to their transportation systems during these years. federal dollars in the future. These projects represented only 1.3% of total state-owned highway miles, yet their construction accounted for a staggering 57% of combined road 576. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT repair and expansion expenditures during this period. ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS 584. Roger Millar, (Analyst, Taxpayers for Common Sense), REPAIR AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 1. Political forces often undermine a strong PRIORITIES: TRANSPORTATION SPENDING STRATEGIES TO commitment to maintenance. Members of Congress, state legislators and SAVE TAXPAYER DOLLARS AND IMPROVE ROADS, June 2011, 6. local politicians thrive on ribbon-cuttings. Powerful special interests push Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) data indicate that half of all for new and bigger highways. Meanwhile, federal and state policies—which major state roads were in "fair" or "poor" condition in 2008. In 2009 the should provide strong guidance in the wise use of taxpayer dollars—often American Society of Civil Engineers gave the nation's roads a "D-," down fail to achieve the proper balance between building new infrastructure and from a "D" in 2005, and this decline in road conditions is directly related to taking care of what we already have built. state spending decisions. South Carolina, for example, spent 18% of its highway capital budget on repair projects between 2004 and 2008, but spent 577. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT 41% on expansion. The percentage of South Carolina roads in "good" condition during this time dropped from 45% to 33%, the largest decline of ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS any state. AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 2. Special interest pressure tilts the playing field toward the construction of new and ever-wider highways at the 585. Roger Millar, (Analyst, Taxpayers for Common Sense), REPAIR expense of repair and maintenance. By and large, states award new PRIORITIES: TRANSPORTATION SPENDING STRATEGIES TO contracts for major construction projects, but perform ongoing maintenance SAVE TAXPAYER DOLLARS AND IMPROVE ROADS, June 2011, 6. in-house. As a result, there is a strong outside political pressure for new Between 2004 and 2008, states spent $37.9 billion annually on repair and bridge or highway construction, but little outside pressure for preventative expansion of roads and highways. Of these funds, 57% went to road maintenance and regular repairs. widening and new road construction -- just 1.3% of roads. 43% went to preservation of existing roads, which make up 98.7% of the system. 578. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT 586. Roger Millar, (Analyst, Taxpayers for Common Sense), REPAIR ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS PRIORITIES: TRANSPORTATION SPENDING STRATEGIES TO AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 22. The road and bridge maintenance crisis SAVE TAXPAYER DOLLARS AND IMPROVE ROADS, June 2011, 9. begins at the top. Federal transportation policies fail to counter the inherent States would collectively need to spend $43 billion every year for 20 years biases against maintenance introduced by the nature of our political to bring roads currently in poor condition up to good and then keep roads in system—and in some cases, actually magnify it. good condition going forward. To put this number in perspective, it is a higher level of spending than what states are currently spending on all 579. Matthew E. Kahn, (Prof., Public Affairs, UCLA), FIX IT FIRST, EXPAND IT SECOND, REWARD IT THIRD: A NEW STRATEGY FOR repair, preservation, and new capacity combined. This makes clear that states' priorities have drifted too far from regular preservation and repair AMERICA'S HIGHWAYS, Feb. 2011, 7. Presently, maintenance, repair, and in so doing have created a deficit that will take decades to reverse. and rehabilitation of existing infrastructure, as well as safety and environmental enhancements, compete with new infrastructure for priority, 587. Diana Furchtgott-Roth, (Analyst, Manhattan Institute), A GOOD, BUT and often come up short as the priorities of politicians and the electoral NOT GREAT HIGHWAY BILL, Feb. 2, 2012. Retrieved Feb. 24, 2012 cycle differ from the life cycle of infrastructure. from http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/miarticle.htm?id=7864. What should be the federal role in financing roads? In all other areas, except 580. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT perhaps national defense, consumers can purchase more of a product if they want to do so, provided they have enough money. They want cell phones- ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS they can buy them. They want water service-they can buy it. The same AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 6. For decades, federal and state transportation decision-making has been geared toward buying shiny new toys ... and not should be true of congested highways and roads. If road users want more road space, they should be able to pay for it. so much toward taking good care of the ones we already have. Too often, no one has taken responsibility for insisting that our nation's roads and 588. Marcia Clemmitt, (Analyst, CQ Researcher), URBAN ISSUES, 2009, bridges be scrupulously maintained, so that drivers remain safe and that we 124-125. Future tolls also will likely feature "congestion pricing," says get the maximum possible life out of our investments. Now, America's Pagano. Sensors in the pavement will "fine tune traffic on a highway" by transportation system is in crisis. The vast amount of highway and bridge triggering a rise in tolls — which will be posted on overhead signs — when infrastructure we have built over the last half-century is rapidly aging, with traffic gets heavy, thus discouraging some drivers from entering the road, much of it beginning to reach the end of its useful life. The pools of money Pagano says. that once funded lavish spending on new highways and bridges are drying up. And the need for investment in clean, efficient transportation options— 589. Burt Solomon, (Staff, National Journal), U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2011, 13. Many economists favor another solution—congestion pricing. including rail, public transportation and safe streets for walking and London, Stockholm, and Singapore now charge vehicles that drive into the bicycling—continues to grow. central cities at busy times of the day. Michael Bloomberg, New York 581. Matthew E. Kahn, (Prof., Public Affairs, UCLA), FIX IT FIRST, City's business-man-turned-mayor, pursued the idea until the state EXPAND IT SECOND, REWARD IT THIRD: A NEW STRATEGY FOR legislature shot it down. Pure congestion pricing, a high-tech means of AMERICA'S HIGHWAYS, Feb. 2011, 5-6. Our system of federal grants raising or lowering the toll depending on the traffic, is being tested on a matched to state funds puts no value on benefit-cost analysis. As a result, highway north of San Diego, where the price of driving changes every few new, often inefficient, infrastructure investments are preferred by minutes. Such pricing would be one way for Americans to pay their way. policymakers at the expense of more mundane repair and maintenance of existing infrastructure that may have higher returns. There is an odd juxtaposition with respect to our investments in improving existing transport infrastructure versus building new highways.
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590. Diana Furchtgott-Roth, (Analyst, Manhattan Institute), A GOOD, BUT 596. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: NOT GREAT HIGHWAY BILL, Feb. 2, 2012. Retrieved Feb. 24, 2012 PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. from http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/miarticle.htm?id=7864. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 46-47. Based on estimates in Lee, Rather, customers should pay for their roads, not through federal fuel taxes Small, Winston, and Evans report that a nationwide policy of congestion but on the basis of use, just as they pay for their electricity and water bills. pricing would yield annual revenues of $54 billion (1981 dollars) and, after Heavily travelled roads could cost more than lightly used roads, and driving accounting for road users' out-of-pocket losses and travel-time savings, at peak hours could be more expensive than driving at 2:00 am. The new would generate an annual welfare gain of $6 billion (1981 dollars). Winston bill allows states to toll non-interstate highways. Why not also permit the and Shirley estimate that the annual welfare gain from nationwide tolling by the states of interstate highways, if only just for maintenance? congestion pricing would amount to $3.2 billion (1990 dollars), but the After all, over the life of a road, the amount spent on maintenance exceeds authors' estimate includes the losses from additional transit subsidies the cost of construction. generated by auto users who shift to bus or rail. (Recently Langer and Winston have pointed out that congestion pricing would produce additional 591. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: benefits by improving land use and reducing the costs of sprawl. Current PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. policy has contributed to urban sprawl by reducing the per-mile cost of TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 57. The public sector is limited by current policy from taking full advantage of other traffic-related commuting (including out-of-pocket and travel time costs) for most motorists, which induces households to live in more distant, lower-density technologies developed by the private sector. Using satellite information on locations. Congestion pricing would increase the per-mile cost of real-time highway travel conditions and computerized road maps, on-board vehicle computers could revolutionize driving by providing "smart" commuting for most motorists and increase density by encouraging households to live closer to places of employment. directions to avoid congestion. The navigation technology could also help road authorities set accurate congestion tolls and allow motorists to know 597. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: the charge before they reach a congested corridor should they want to take a PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. different route to avoid the toll. Because the public sector has not instituted TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 47. By allowing residents to change congestion pricing, it cannot realize the full benefits of the navigation their residential location, Langer and Winston estimate that the annual gains technology. from congestion pricing would be roughly $40 billion (2000 dollars) and would entail less redistribution of resources from households to the 592. Nathan Musick, (Economist, Congressional Budget Office), PUBLIC government than estimates that are based on the assumption that households SPENDING ON TRANSPORTATION AND WATER do not change their residential location. INFRASTRUCTURE, 2010, 17. The Federal Highway Administration has estimated that widespread use of congestion pricing—which would result in 598. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), motorists' paying higher fees to drive on a given road during peak hours and TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND lower fees during off-peak hours—would reduce by almost $41 billion and THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 180. As a nonpartisan group, the $52 billion, respectively, previous estimates of the annual investment commission would be charged with identifying the structures most critically required to maintain services at current levels and to undertake all in need of corrective work and publicizing that list to the general public. It economically justifiable investments. That is because some motorists would would have full authority to secure previously authorized funding to respond to the higher prices for accessing a road during peak travel periods oversee the work and would ensure that it was carried out on time and on a by driving when it is less crowded (and travel is cheaper), by finding cost-effective basis. alternative routes, or by switching to public transit. 599. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), 593. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 180. The federal government would pay 90 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 46. The gasoline tax is an percent of the costs of this corrective work, and the state or local inefficient pricing instrument: although it is a rough proxy for road use, it infrastructure owner would be responsible for the remaining 10 percent. fails to take into account the social costs of congestion. Economists have These funds could not be diverted to any project not on the commission's long recommended congestion pricing to reduce traffic delays. The basic list of most urgent projects. Where appropriate, any tolls or other revenue- idea is that when the volume of traffic on a road is low, every vehicle is able generating measures recoverable from such projects would be redistributed to travel at free flow speed, and each driver incurs the private cost of a trip, to the federal government and the owner in the same proportion that they consisting of vehicle operating costs and the value of the driver's travel paid for the costs. time. As traffic volume increases, an additional road user delays other motorists by causing them to reduce their speed. Under those conditions, 600. Barry LePatner, (Attorney, LePatner & Associates, New York City), TOO BIG TO FALL: AMERICA’S FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE AND each driver's private cost diverges from the social cost of his or her trip THE WAY FORWARD, 2010, 180. The new commission would be because the social cost includes the driver's contribution to congestion, as measured by the cost of the delay (or the value of the additional travel time) charged with coordinating large-scale projects, such as ports, airports, high- speed rail lines, power grids, and multistate transportation programs, incurred by other drivers. working with the often competing interests that are involved in these 594. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: projects. PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 46. An efficient congestion toll 601. Roger Millar, (Analyst, Taxpayers for Common Sense), REPAIR PRIORITIES: TRANSPORTATION SPENDING STRATEGIES TO applied to all drivers on a congested road bridges the gap between the SAVE TAXPAYER DOLLARS AND IMPROVE ROADS, June 2011, 16. average private cost of drivers' trips and the marginal social cost of their trips by making them pay for their contribution to the delays imposed on Investing in road repair and preservation is an excellent job creator. Funds from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act that went to road repair other drivers; hence scarce road capacity is used efficiently by drivers projects created 16% more jobs per dollar spent than funds that went to whose marginal benefit of driving equals or exceeds the marginal social cost of their trips. expansion projects.21 Repair and preservation projects also create opportunities for a greater variety of workers, require less spending on land 595. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: acquisition, and get through the permitting and planning phases more PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. quickly. These factors put more people to work faster. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 46. Using modern technology, congestion tolls can be collected without disrupting motorists' journeys or 602. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT invading their privacy. Rather than assign a congestion cost to each ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS motorist, the level of the tolls is determined by plausible estimates of what users would be willing to pay (on average) to save a minute of travel time— AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 35. Investing in repair can create jobs and economic activity. Repair and maintenance projects on roads and bridges that is, their delay during a particular time period. Naturally, tolls are higher produce on average of 16 percent more jobs than new highway construction during peak travel times and considerably lower during off-peak periods. The higher tolls during peak travel periods reduce delays and smooth the per dollar spent, in part because a greater share of project costs go directly into workers' pockets, and less to right-of-way purchase, engineering, and traffic flow by encouraging some motorists to either take longer but less impact studies.139 Every $1 billion invested in bridge repair creates more congested routes, modify their schedules to travel during less congested periods, shift to public transit, or not make the trip. than 20,000 jobs. 603. Colin Peppard, (Staff, Natural Resources Defense Council), THE ROAD TO RECOVERY: INVESTING IN A NEW TRANSPORTATION POLICY, Mar. 2011. Retrieved Feb. 18, 2012 from http://www.nrdc.org/energy/transportation/files/roadtorecovery.pdf. A new transportation law must adopt a “fix- it-first” approach to infrastructure. Substantial investment should be allocated exclusively to repairs, and states and regions must be held to a high “state of good repair” performance standard in their long-range plans and transportation improvement programs. The era of wasteful earmarks for flashy but foolish projects, such as the infamous “bridge to nowhere,” must give way to a focus on fixing our creaky, decaying, and essential existing transportation infrastructure.
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604. Jonathan Miller, (Analyst, Urban Land Institute), 615. WASHINGTON TIMES, Apr. 5, 2012, B2. It didn't take long for INFRASTRUCTURE 2009: PIVOT POINT, 2009, vii. Fix-it-first programs earmarks to try for a comeback. After the Tea Party swept the 2010 can prevent major breakdowns and costly dislocations. It's better to spend midterm elections, House Republicans used their majority power to put an these monies on averting catastrophes than on new projects before the end to pork-barrel projects. Now 15 months later, the Republican caucus is government has established a national plan. Candidates for funding range split over bringing them back or ending them once and for all. from rusting bridges and overpasses to outmoded water treatment plants and structurally deficient levees. And repair needs dwarf stimulus allocations— 616. Staff Report of the House Committee on Transportation and much more funding will be needed. Infrastructure, THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND 605. Travis Madsen, (Analyst, U.S. Public Interest Research Group WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, viii. Education Fund), ROAD WORK AHEAD: HOLDING GOVERNMENT Barges moving on waterways are safer, more fuel efficient, and less ACCOUNTABLE FOR FIXING AMERICA'S CRUMBLING ROADS polluting than other means of transportation. For example, on average, a AND BRIDGES, Apr. 2010, 24. Federal transportation policy has been gallon of fuel can move one ton of cargo 155 miles by truck, 413 miles by oriented toward providing maximum flexibility to the states, and toward train, and 576 miles by barge. Due to these efficiencies, carbon dioxide ensuring that federal transportation funding is spread broadly across emissions were 2.1 million metric tons less in 2005 than if rail geographic areas. This policy has had the effect of empowering local and transportation had been used, and 14.4 million metric tons less than if trucks state officials to make decisions about their transportation future. While it had been used. would be inappropriate for the federal government to micromanage state decisions, federal taxpayers deserve to have safeguards in place to prevent 617. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, INLAND WATERWAY NAVIGATION: VALUE TO THE NATION, Jan. 2010, 3. Another, less politics from systematically distorting spending decisions in a way that visible environmental benefit of the Corps navigation projects is that they undermines the long-term health of the system they pay for. help limit air pollution emissions by enabling tows with many barges to 606. Nathan Musick, (Economist, Congressional Budget Office), PUBLIC move cargo long distances on considerably less fuel than trains or trucks SPENDING ON TRANSPORTATION AND WATER would need to move the same amount of cargo the same distance. The INFRASTRUCTURE, 2010, ix. State and local governments account for ability to move much more cargo per shipment by water than is possible by about 75 percent of total public spending on transportation and water truck or train means that barge transport is both fuel-efficient and infrastructure—even after subtracting from their gross spending the value of environmentally advantageous. On average, a gallon of fuel allows one ton grants and loan subsidies that the federal government provides for such of cargo to be shipped 155 miles by truck, 436 miles by rail and 576 miles purposes—and the federal government accounts for the other 25 percent. by barge. America's inland waterways allow America to realize tremendous That split has remained roughly constant over the past two decades. savings in fuel consumption and reduced air emissions from fuel combustion. 607. Clifford Winston, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), LAST EXIT: PRIVATIZATION AND DEREGULATION OF THE U.S. 618. Len Boselovic, (Staff), PITTSBURGH POST-GAZETTE, Mar. 18, TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, 2010, 53. Labor expenses are a significant 2012, A6. Rivers provide a less expensive alternative to other transportation component of both the construction and maintenance costs of highways. options. Barges are more than $14 a ton cheaper than using rail or truck, Construction workers are needed to carry out capital projects, while according to a 2010 report by a Corps-industry task force that recommended administrative workers at the Federal Highway Administration and state changes in the way lock and dam projects are funded. DOTs manage the projects and ensure that they meet all regulations. 619. Bob Gibbs, (U.S. Rep., Ohio), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE Several regulations relate to labor directly, and they have the effect of both AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE expanding the labor force needed to manage and complete highway projects and of raising the cost of project completion. For example, the annual cost NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 1. As fuel prices continue to escalate, waterway of Davis-Bacon regulations has been found by Allen to be as high as $600 transportation becomes an even more viable alternative for shippers. But an million (2000 dollars). And similar state regulations have been found to raise highway wages as much as 4 percent. inefficient transportation system will make U.S. products uncompetitive in world markets. The inland water transportation system provides freight 608. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, MOTOR VEHICLE mobility that otherwise would be costly or even impossible to address. CRASHES, Feb. 2012, 2. The fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles Some products are simply too large to move by any mode, other than water. traveled (VMT) fell to a historic low of 1.10 in 2010. The overall injury rate Some products are too hazardous for other modes, and those modes cannot remained the same from 2009 to 2010. The 2010 rates are based on VMT charge rates high enough to make it feasible to move the product. estimates from the Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA) August 2011 Traffic Volume Trends (TVT). Overall 2010 VMT increased by 1.6 620. Mike Toohey, (President, Waterways Council), THE ECONOMIC percent from 2009 VMT -- from 2,953,501 million to 2,999,974 million. IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS 609. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, MOTOR VEHICLE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 142. And, so for CRASHES, Feb. 2012, 3. The total number of police-reported traffic over 200 years, our river system has facilitated the affordable, reliable and crashes declined from 2009 to 2010, as both fatal and non-fatal crashes environmentally friendly transportation of the building blocks of our declined. While non-fatal crashes declined, the number of injury crashes economy. It has allowed the low cost movement of large bulk commodities increased 1.6 percent from 2009 to 2010. The estimated changes in each in an efficient and timely manner. In fact, a recent study by the Texas type of crash were not statistically significant. Transportation Institute (TTI) found that river transportation is the most energy efficient way to move coal, grain and other agricultural 610. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, MOTOR VEHICLE CRASHES, Feb. 2012, 3. Among fatally injured passenger vehicle commodities, iron, steel, aggregates, petroleum and chemical products. River barges can move one ton of cargo 576 miles per gallon of fuel. A rail occupants, more than half (51%) of those killed in 2010 were unrestrained. car would move the same amount of cargo 413 miles, while a truck would Of those occupants killed during the night 61 percent were unrestrained, compared to 42 percent during the day. move the same cargo only 155 miles. The TTI study also found that it would require 216 rail cars, or 1,050 large tractor-trailer trucks, to move the 611. PITTSBURGH POST-GAZETTE, July 27, 2009, B6. Earlier this same volume of cargo that a typical 15 barge tow can move on the river month, the U.S. Department of Transportation announced that the overall system. Clearly, our roads and highways would be even more congested if number of traffic fatalities last year hit their lowest level since 1961. What's this huge volume of cargo was not moving by water. more, the first three months of this year showed the decline was continuing. 621. Mike Toohey, (President, Waterways Council), THE JOURNAL OF According to the transportation department, the fatality rate -- which COMMERCE, Apr. 15, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 16, 2012 from accounts for variables like fewer miles traveled -- is now at the lowest level ever recorded. www.joc.com/joc-tens/ joc-tens-us-national-policy-should-include-capital- investment-inland-waterways-infrastructu. Barges on our inland system can 612. Larry Gerston, (Prof., Political Science, San Jose State U.), SAN JOSE move one ton of cargo 576 miles on one gallon of fuel — more the 100 MERCURY NEWS, Mar. 19, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 14, 2012 from Nexis. In miles more than rail transport and 400 miles more than truck transport. This the name of fiscal responsibility, Congress has decided to eliminate all matters now more than ever as we seek ways to be less dependent on earmarks, those special appropriations usually requested by a single foreign oil. member for his or her district or state that are approved with little oversight. 622. C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, 613. Ronald Utt, (Sr. Fellow, Heritage Foundation), STATES NEWS Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), A MODAL COMPARISON OF SERVICE, Feb. 1, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 14, 2012 from Nexis. In his State DOMESTIC FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION EFFECTS ON THE of the Union address, President Barack Obama promised that he would veto GENERAL PUBLIC, Mar. 2009, 13. It is difficult to appreciate the carrying any bill Congress sent him if it included earmarks, thereby endorsing the capacity of a barge until one understands how much demand a single barge November commitment by House Republicans to impose a two-year can meet. For example, a loaded covered hopper barge carrying wheat moratorium on earmarks. carries enough product to make almost 2.5 million loaves of bread, or the equivalent of one loaf for almost every person in the state of Kansas. 614. Stephen Dinan, (Staff), WASHINGTON TIMES, Feb. 10, 2011, A1. With House Republicans already ensuring that no spending bill would pass Congress with earmarks, and President Obama's veto threat backing that up, Mr. Inouye, chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said "the handwriting is clearly on the wall."
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623. C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, 630. Steve Ebke, (Chairman, Production and Stewardship Action Team, Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), A MODAL COMPARISON OF National Corn Growers Association), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE DOMESTIC FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION EFFECTS ON THE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE GENERAL PUBLIC, Mar. 2009, 23. The tonnage moved on the inland NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, river system would amount to an addition of nearly 25% more tonnage on Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 22. Every day the price of grain a farmer receives at the railroad system. This new burden would not be evenly distributed. The his home market is impacted by the price of grain that moves on the primary burden would be placed on the Eastern U.S. railroads with little Mississippi River to export markets. Each year, more than 1 billion bushels real opportunity to take advantage of excess capacity that may exist on the of grain—about 60 percent of all grain exports—are shipped on the Western U.S. railroads. Mississippi River. 624. C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, 631. Mike Strain, (Commissioner, Louisiana Dept. of Agriculture), Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), AMERICA'S LOCKS & DAMS: REALIZE AMERICA’S MARITIME PROMISE ACT, FEB. 1, 2012. "A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?", Dec. 2011, 129. The Retrieved Apr. 15, 2012 from inland waterway also plays an important role in the transportation of http://waysandmeans.house.gov/UploadedFiles/Strain201os.pdf. The agricultural inputs, especially fertilizers and pesticides, which account for Mississippi River and its tributaries form the most critical inland waterway 16% of waterway traffic. Most agricultural input traffic on the inland system in the nation, supporting about 50 percent of the nation's soybean waterway moves upriver, over 80% of which is fuel products, while another exports and 60 percent of the total U.S. corn exports. Annually, about 400 12% is fertilizer. According to Casavant and sources cited therein, the cost million bushels of soybeans, 1.1 billion bushels of corn and more than 30 of fertilizer increases by around $8 per ton if alternative transportation million bushels of wheat are moved by barge to ports along the Lower modes are used instead of inland waterways. Mississippi River. As one of the largest single contributor to the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), agriculture is critical to our economy and 625. C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, any disruption in commerce will have devastating impacts to the farmers Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), AMERICA'S LOCKS & DAMS: "A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?", Dec. 2011, 1. and ranchers who produce our food and fiber. Agriculture accounted for 22% of all transported tonnage and 31% of all 632. Mike Strain, (Commissioner, Louisiana Dept. of Agriculture), ton-miles in the United States in 2007. The surface transportation system in REALIZE AMERICA’S MARITIME PROMISE ACT, FEB. 1, 2012. the U.S. is central to agriculture's ability to compete in domestic and world Retrieved Apr. 15, 2012 from markets. The rapidly deteriorating condition of the nation's lock and dam http://waysandmeans.house.gov/UploadedFiles/Strain201os.pdf. With 60 infrastructure imperils the ability of the waterborne transportation system to percent growth projected in grain exports alone — not counting feed and provide a service that will enable U.S. agricultural producers to continue to other agricultural commodities nor manufactured goods — nearly 1,500 compete. Should a catastrophic failure of lock and dam infrastructure occur, additional barge trips would be added by the Panama and Colombia free agricultural producers—and consequently the American consumer—will trade agreements based on export growth projections from the International suffer severe economic distress. This research analyzed and evaluated data Trade Administration. The long term health of U.S. agriculture and the and information that will illustrate this vulnerability at a micro level rather entire economy depends on this nation making the necessary upkeep of our than the traditional macro level. waterways. It would seem futile to lose out on the advantages of the three Free Trade Agreements -- which took over five years of government and 626. C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), AMERICA'S LOCKS & DAMS: industry's hard work to finally pass — due to our inability to keep our shipping channels open. "A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?", Dec. 2011, 1. The task of transporting agricultural commodities from the farm to first handlers 633. Len Boselovic, (Staff), PITTSBURGH POST-GAZETTE, Mar. 18, and processors and ultimately to domestic and international retail markets 2012, A6. Industry officials say more reliable locks and dams could boost and ports requires a highly developed, integrated transportation network, of U.S. exports, a critical element of President Barack Obama's economic which marine transportation is a vital component. A high percentage of recovery plan. They point to an expansion of the Panama Canal that will these commodities pass through one or more locks on their way to market. allow more and bigger ships to pass through the canal, which links the Should a waterway be closed due to one or more lock failures, the resultant Caribbean Sea with the Pacific Ocean. The Panama project could benefit increase in costs that would be incurred in utilizing truck or rail American coal and grain producers eyeing booming markets in Asia if they transportation would decrease or even eliminate the cost advantage of U.S. can efficiently ship products down the Ohio and Mississippi rivers to New Midwestern producers. This would be especially detrimental to export Orleans for export. "How can we double exports in five years if our shipments. From 2005 through 2009, 87-91% of corn exported through transportation system can't support that?" Mr. Hettel asks. lower Mississippi ports arrived at the ports via barge; for soybeans, the 634. Michael Charles, (Sr. Manager for Government Relations, American percentage was 87-89%. Society of Civil Engineers), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND 627, Agriculture needs barges C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S Waterways, Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), AMERICA'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, LOCKS & DAMS: "A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?", 2011, 12. Forty-one states, including all states east of the Mississippi River Dec. 2011, 2. The Ohio River has the highest total commodity flow, and 16 state capitals, are served by commercially navigable waterways. The followed by the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. The share of each U.S. inland waterway system consists of 12,000 miles of navigable commodity group of the total freight flow varies across rivers and time of waterways in four systems—the Mississippi River, the Ohio River Basin, year. For instance, coal is the major commodity transported on the Ohio the Gulf lntercoastal Waterway, and the Pacific Coast systems—that River in terms of volume; it represents 59% of total freight volume and connect with most states in the U.S. The system comprises 257 locks, which approximately 55% of that volume is upbound. Grain flows become more raise and lower river traffic between stretches of water of different levels. prevalent in the lower reaches of the river. However, in terms of value, the petroleum products category dominates, with coal being the second largest 635. Neil Grigg, (Prof., Environmental Engineering, Colorado State U.), value group. ECONOMICS AND FINANCE FOR ENGINEERS AND PLANNERS: MANAGING INFRASTRUCTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES, 628. C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, 2010, 77. The United States has about 21,000 miles of inland waterways Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), AMERICA'S LOCKS & DAMS: that provide alternative shipping for large, bulk commodities. These include "A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?", Dec. 2011, 2. Grain, navigable rivers, the Intracoastal Waterway system, which provides particularly corn and soybeans, is the dominant freight movement on the navigation routes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, and the Great Lakes Upper Mississippi River in terms of both volume and value throughout all system. There is one state-maintained system, the 520-mile-long New York reaches of the river. The transportation volume of petroleum products is State Barge Canal System. These inland waterways are transportation relatively insignificant compared to grain and other commodity groups arteries for mostly bulk items such as commodities, petroleum, foodstuffs, except in the lower reaches of the Upper Mississippi River—in the St. Louis building materials, and manufactured goods. area—where it increases. 636. Pamela Collins, (Prof., Homeland Security, Eastern Kentucky U.), 629. Steve Ebke, (Chairman, Production and Stewardship Action Team, HOMELAND SECURITY AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE National Corn Growers Association), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE PROTECTION, 2009, 11-13. Inland waterways account for nearly nine AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE percent of total domestic freight carried by the U.S Maritime Transportation NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, System (MTS) on its network of inland waterways, which includes the Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 22. The U.S. agricultural sector is the largest user of Mississippi River System and the intracoastal and navigable internal the freight transportation network, accounting for nearly one-third of all waterways of the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific Coasts. The inland fleet freight transportation services utilized across the country. With the primary currently totals more than 33,000 vessels, and more than 770 million tons of agricultural production in the interior of the country, far from the ports that freight is transported on the Nation's inland waterways each year. Of this link to international trade, transportation is critical to the competitiveness of cargo, the principal commodities carried are coal, oil products, and food and U.S. agriculture in world markets. farm products, all bulk cargo.
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637. Pamela Collins, (Prof., Homeland Security, Eastern Kentucky U.), 645. Len Boselovic, (Staff), PITTSBURGH POST-GAZETTE, Mar. 18, HOMELAND SECURITY AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE 2012, A6. The longer the delays, the more difficult and expensive it PROTECTION, 2009, 13. More than 1,000 harbor channels and 25,000 becomes to maintain the aging locks and dams. More than half of the miles of inland, intracoastal, and coastal waterways in the U.S. serve more nation's locks, which were designed to last 50 years, have been moving than 300 ports and more than 3,700 terminals that handle passenger and along river traffic far longer. About 40 percent of the 89 locks in the Corps' cargo movements. For example, annually, the U.S. marine transportation Great Lakes and Ohio division, which includes Pittsburgh, are more than 70 system: Moves more than 2 billion tons of domestic and international years old. Corps and industry officials say it is only a matter of time before freight; Imports 3.3 billion barrels of oil to meet U.S. energy demands; a major lock or dam fails, an event that would force elected officials and Transports 134 million passengers by ferry; Serves 78 million Americans consumers to realize the important role river infrastructure plays. engaged in recreational boating; and Hosts more than 5 million cruise ship passengers. 646. Timothy Johnson, (U.S. Rep., Illinois), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF 638. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, INLAND WATERWAY RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS NAVIGATION: VALUE TO THE NATION, Jan. 2010, 2. Inland and TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, Like most of the intracoastal waterways directly serve 38 states throughout the nation's United States transportation infrastructure, the navigational infrastructure of heartland, the Atlantic seaboard, the Gulf Coast and the Pacific Northwest. inland waterways system is aging, and in need of modernization. Today 54 The shippers and consumers in these states relied on the inland waterways percent of the inland waterway system structures are more than 54 years to move over 622 million tons of cargo in 2007. All domestic waterborne old, 36 percent are over 70 years old. In addition to the outdated structures commerce (inland, coastal and Great Lakes) amounted to over 1 billion tons of harbors, locks, and dams, there are only—there are also the operational with a value of over $380 billion in 2007. These goods were shipped from challenges of maintaining channel depths, flood control, water management, 40 states. and water supply that have fallen woefully behind the times. And my area is a good example. 639. Staff Report of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL 647. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, INLAND WATERWAY CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND NAVIGATION: VALUE TO THE NATION, Jan. 2010, 7. Over 50 percent WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, ix. of the locks and dams operated by the Corps are over 50 years old. Many of The federal government in the past invested in the Inland Waterways the 600-foot locks on the system were built in the 1930s or earlier, Transportation System to generate economic opportunity by providing an including those on the heavily-used Ohio, Upper Mississippi, Illinois and alternative method and lower cost for moving of cargo. This investment Tennessee rivers. These projects are approaching the end of their design does not guarantee that future cargoes will meet projected tonnages, lives and are in need of modernization or major rehabilitation. The however, this federal investment helps to mitigate some of the speculative consequences of this aging infrastructure studies will identify the navigation risks associated with building to meet demand and helps to moderate rates and environmental actions needed to support the inland waterway system of on other transportation modes. the future. 640. Mike Toohey, (President, Waterways Council), THE ECONOMIC 648. C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), AMERICA'S LOCKS & DAMS: RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS "A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?", Dec. 2011, 5. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, Mr. Chairman, the Currently, 54% of the Inland Marine Transportation System's (IMTS) inland waterways system is one of this country's greatest assets. In fact, that structures are more than 50 years old and 36% are more than 70 years old. system has been recognized as a matter of fundamental Federal The age and increase in hours of outage are a concern. On the Ohio River, responsibility and stewardship since the earliest days of our country's for example, navigation outages have increased more than 3-fold since existence. 2000, going from approximately 25,000 hours to 80,000 hours.3 There have been two recent failures: Markland Lock in 2009 (5 months) and Greenup 641. Staff Report of the House Committee on Transportation and Lock in 2010 (1 month). Delays and budget overruns have become so Infrastructure, THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND severe that they are causing other projects to lose funding or be delayed by a number of years (e.g., the Olmsted Locks and Dam Project on the Ohio WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, vii. River). Federal interest in navigation in the United States stems from the Commerce Clause of the Constitution. The history of inland navigation in 649. C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, the United States dates back to the 1820's when Congress authorized Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), AMERICA'S LOCKS & DAMS: construction of a canal connecting Lake Michigan to the Illinois River and "A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?", Dec. 2011, 6. authorized the United States Army Corps of Engineers to remove snags, Federal government data in 2004 reported that over half of federal-aid debris, and other obstructions from the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. These highways are in less-than-good condition and more than one quarter of the rivers and coastal ports were the primary routes of commerce for the new nation's bridges are structurally deficient or functionally obsolete. Great nation. deficiencies exist in funds to maintain and improve our nation's roads. A potential diversion of barge traffic to rail or long haul truck would further 642. Staff Report of the House Committee on Transportation and add to current or forecasted demand resulting in detrimental effects on our Infrastructure, THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL infrastructure and increasing costs to our economy. CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, viii. 650. C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, For nearly two centuries the federal government has dredged channels and Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), AMERICA'S LOCKS & DAMS: built locks and dams, wing dikes, and other structures to create an Inland "A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?", Dec. 2011, 66. Waterway Transportation System for the efficient movement of goods. The Nation's Inland Waterways Transportation System The lock and dam are System includes major rivers such as the Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, and over 70 years old. While some major maintenance and rehabilitation have Columbia Rivers, as well as smaller waterways such as the Tennessee, been performed, additional rehabilitation will be required to ensure Arkansas, Monongahela, and Hudson Rivers. reliability over the next 30 years. Long-established programs for preventative maintenance of major lock components have essentially given 643. Staff Report of the House Committee on Transportation and way to a fixas-fail strategy, with repairs sometimes requiring weeks or Infrastructure, THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL months to complete. CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, viii. 651. C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, The United States Army Corps of Engineers operates and maintains Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), AMERICA'S LOCKS & DAMS: approximately $235 billion worth of water resources infrastructure assets, "A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?", Dec. 2011, 66. The including a network of 11,000 miles of the "fuel-taxed" Inland Waterways lock and dam are over 70 years old. While some major maintenance and Transportation System. The Corps operates and maintains 221 lock rehabilitation have been performed, additional rehabilitation will be chambers at 185 sites on 27 inland rivers and intracoastal waterways required to ensure reliability over the next 30 years. Long-established segments. The fuel-taxed Inland Waterways Transportation System carries programs for preventative maintenance of major lock components have over 546 million tons of freight annually. essentially given way to a fix-as-fail strategy, with repairs sometimes requiring weeks or months to complete. 644. Stephen Little, (Chair, Inland Waterways Users Board), INLAND MARINE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, Apr. 2010, vii. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) has played a major role in the nation's marine transportation system and inland water management since the country's founding and, through its navigation mission, retains a pivotal role in managing inland waterways into the future. The Corps Navigation mission is to provide a safe, reliable, efficient, effective, and environmentally sustainable waterborne transportation system for the movement of commerce, national security needs, and recreation.
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652. C. James Kruse, (Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, 658. Bob Gibbs, (U.S. Rep., Ohio), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE Transportation Institute, Texas A&M U.), AMERICA'S LOCKS & DAMS: AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE "A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?", Dec. 2011, 74. NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Recent periodic inspections have noted a significant increase in the rate of Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 3. Because of the age, the existing locks and dams are concrete deterioration of the dam structure [for Lock and Dam 18]. A not sized for the modern tow of 15 barges. As a result, delays occur at some concrete condition survey completed in 2005 confirmed that the dam times of the year, as tow boats have to break up their loads and move them concrete is deteriorating due to an expansive reaction and freeze-thaw through locks in two or three separate passes. Efficiencies could be found at cycling. Immediate concrete repairs are needed. Additionally, the lock and many locations by expanding existing locks to handle the larger tows. dam are over 70 years old and additional rehabilitation will be required to ensure reliability over the next 30 years. Long-established programs for 659. Jacqui Fatka, (Staff), FOODSTUFFS, Feb. 6, 2012, 5. On the Ohio preventative maintenance of major lock components have essentially given River alone, the accumulated shipping delays at broken-clown locks have more than tripled since 2000, rising from 25,000 hours to 80,000 annually, way to a fix-as-fail strategy, with repairs sometimes requiring weeks or which gets expensive. The study found that a three-month lock closure months to complete. would increase the cost of transporting 5.5 million tons of oilseeds and 653. Michael Charles, (Sr. Manager for Government Relations, American grain the average shipped by barge during that period — by $71.6 million. Society of Civil Engineers), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND The study determined that a failure at any one of the focus locks would cost FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S agricultural producers anywhere between $895,000 and $45 million and INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, would result in lost revenues to barge companies of between $2.2 million 2011, 12. Forty-seven percent of all locks maintained by the U.S. Army and $162.9 million, depending on the duration of the shutdown. Corps of Engineers were classified as functionally obsolete in 2006. Assuming that no new locks are built within the next 20 years, by 2020, 660. Izaak Walton League, ANOTHER CORPORATE BAILOUT: another 93 existing locks will be obsolete—rendering more than 8 out of INLAND WATERWAYS TRUST FUND, 2010. Retrieved Mar. 14, 2012 from http://www.iwla.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/5034/pid/5034. On April 13, every 10 locks now in service outdated. Most locks now are anywhere from 2010, the Inland Marine Transportation Systems (IMTS) Capital Projects 50 to 70 years old. Business Model, Final Report—Final Recommendations was released. We 654. Mike Toohey, (President, Waterways Council), THE ECONOMIC estimate the IMTS recommendations will further increase the public IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF subsidy for inland waterway construction and rehabilitation by about $200 RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS million annually. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 143. More than half of the 238 locks in our system are over 50 years old and have exceeded their 661. Len Boselovic, (Staff), PITTSBURGH POST-GAZETTE, Mar. 21, 2012, A1. Airlines pay a fee for landing and other airport services. Trucking economic design lives. Over the past decade, we have seen critical lock companies pay tolls on highways. But barge operators plying the nation's failures and significant unscheduled down time at locks across the system. In 2007, for example, the Corps of Engineers reported that locks were inland waterways -- and using the lock and dam system that is the lifeblood of river commerce -- pay neither user fees nor tolls on a system that is in unavailable 95,877 hours for scheduled repairs, 42,530 hours for need of urgent repair. Though presidents and lawmakers since Franklin D. unscheduled repairs, and 19,023 hours for unscheduled mechanical breakdowns — totaling 157,430 hours or 6,560 days of down time across Roosevelt have tried to change that, almost all the money for operating, maintaining, repairing and replacing locks and dams comes from taxpayers. the system. And the situation is worsening each year. That is simply The small sliver that doesn't come from the public is generated by a 20- unacceptable. If this situation persists, it threatens to erode the very fabric of our inland waterways system. cent-per-gallon diesel fuel tax that barge operators pay, a tax that has not increased in 17 years. The federal government matches the $85 million or 655. National Corn Growers Association, STATES NEWS SERVICE, Mar. so that the fuel tax generates each year, money that is used for major repairs 29, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 15, 2012 from Nexis. The country's inland or to replace locks and dams. Federal taxpayers shoulder the entire cost of navigation system plays an even more visible role in the economy also, operating and maintaining the facilities. moving more than a billion tons of domestic commerce valued at more than 662. Moorthy Muthuswamy, (Ph.D. in Nuclear Physics, Stony Brook U.), $300 billion per year. Yet, investment in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois DEFEATING POLITICAL ISLAM: THE NEW COLD WAR, 2009, 227- Waterways has not kept pace with the needs of the transportation sector. Designed to last only 50 years, much of the lock system is 228. Jihadists are also developing arguments to justify nuclear attacks on America. A refined effort from a legal standpoint has been advanced by approaching 80 years old and signs of deterioration are readily apparent. Saudi jihadist Nasir Bin Hamad al-Fand in a 2003 document called A Not only has this crucial infrastructure far-exceeded its lifespan, it cannot accommodate modern barging practices that use 1,100 foot barge-tows. Treatise on the Law on the Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction against Unbelievers. This jihadist asserts that under the conditions of Muslim Many of the locks are only 600 feet long, forcing barges to use the time- military inferiority, methods of warfare that violate laws of jihad can be consuming and dangerous double-locking procedure. used. "If the unbelievers can be repelled" only by using weapons of mass 656. Staff Report of the House Committee on Transportation and destruction, then "their use is permissible, even if you kill them without Infrastructure, THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCIAL exception." He softened his proposals by saying that Muslims fighting jihad CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE NATION'S INLAND may not inflict disproportionately more harm on the enemy than the enemy WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, xi. inflicted on them. "Some brothers have added up the number of Muslims Many of the locks on the nation's Inland Waterways Transportation System killed directly or indirectly by [American] weapons and come up with a are 600 feet long. While this was the industry standard in the 1920's, today's figure of nearly 10 million." This total would authorize the use of WMD to 15-barge tows that traverse the system are 1,200 feet long. As a result, most kill about 10 million Americans. tows must lock using a time-consuming process in which the barges are 663. Nathan Busch, (Prof., Government, Newport U.), COMBATING decoupled from the towboat and moved 6 or 9 at a time through the lock. WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION: THE FUTURE OF Assuming the barge tow has no delay at the lock, this can take 1 to 2 hours, under optimal conditions. However, in relation to the Upper Mississippi INTERNATIONAL NONPROLIFERATION POLICY, 2009, 2. The threats posed by WMD proliferation were further driven home on River-Illinois Waterway system, the farther south a barge travels the more September 11, 2001, when the terrorist attacks by al Qaeda raised concerns traffic it encounters, thereby increasing delays. For instance, lock delays at La Grange on the Illinois Waterway average more than 2 hours of delay, that international terrorist groups with radical ideologies might be interested in using WMD to carry out mass casualty attacks. Osama bin Laden has while Locks 22, 24, and 25 on the Upper Mississippi River average delays stated that he considers acquiring WMD to be a religious duty, and terrorist of 5 hours. Simply changing the configuration of the vessels is impractical and economically prohibitive since barge tows are built to maximize the groups have reportedly attempted to acquire WMD technologies on several occasions. John Negroponte, the U.S. director of National Intelligence, total shipment throughout the entire movement, not just at a particular lock. summarized these threats in 2006: "Al-Qa'ida remains interested in 657. Steve Ebke, (Chairman, Production and Stewardship Action Team, acquiring chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear materials or National Corn Growers Association), THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE weapons to attack the United States, U.S. troops, and U.S. interests AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES OF RECAPITALIZING THE worldwide." NATION'S INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, Hrg., Sept. 21, 2011, 22. The truth is that many locks currently in use within 664. Barak Mendelsohn, (Prof., Political Science, Haverford College), the U.S. inland waterways system are too small for today's larger tows, COMBATING JIHADISM: AMERICAN HEGEMONY AND INTERSTATE COOPERATION IN THE WAR ON TERRORISM, 2009, susceptible to closures and long delays for repairs, and unable to deal 77. Al Qaeda has never disguised its desire to acquire weapons of mass effectively with the lines and wait times that result from their obsolescence. The American Society of Civil Engineers, in their 2005 Report Card for destruction, including nuclear capabilities. Bin Laden himself has stated that it is a religious duty for those fighting a jihad to acquire the most effective American Infrastructure, assigned a grade of D– to the condition of our weapons available, including WMD. Furthermore, "it would be a sin for river infrastructure. As we heard from the chairman, on the Upper Mississippi River many lock chambers are 600 feet in length. However, the Muslims not to try to possess the weapons that would prevent the infidels from inflicting harm on Muslims." Following India's nuclear tests in 1998, average length of a modern tow, which is 15 barges pushed by a tow boat, is bin Laden called on the Muslim nation in general and Pakistan in particular 1,200 feet. Consequently, for a modern tow to navigate through these antiquated locks, it must split in half and transit the lock one section at a to prepare for jihad, including a Muslim nuclear bomb. time, resulting in costly delays.
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665. David Sanger, (Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times), 673. Bhumitra Chakma, (Prof., Security Studies, U. of Hull), PAKISTAN’S THE INHERITANCE: THE WORLD OBAMA CONFRONTS AND THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS, 2009, 124. The likelihood of nuclear terrorism has CHALLENGES TO AMERICAN POWER, 2009, 178. In the '90s, al in recent years emerged as a central problem of international security. Qaeda had fallen for at least one nuclear scam, buying up a box full of Indeed, the probability of a terrorist nuclear attack has substantially useless radioactive junk. Now there was evidence suggesting that al Qaeda increased today and is greater than any time in history. and other terror groups were attempting to take a different road to the same destination. They were recruiting Pakistanis who had been trained in 674. Brian Finlay, (Sr. Associate, Henry L. Stimson Center), JIHADISTS nuclear sciences and engineering abroad to try to figure out which ones AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 292. If the know- how to build a nuclear weapon is sought by terrorists, then there is also the might harbor sympathy for radical Islamic causes. According to an potential for the recruitment of sympathetic, underpaid or unemployed American intelligence report that was restricted to very senior officials in Bush's war cabinet, a few of those scientists appeared to be returning to scientists and technicians to aid in this effort. Undoubtedly, some individuals with scientific and technological expertise may be sufficiently Pakistan to seek jobs within the country's nuclear infrastructure. motivated, or at least sympathetic, to a particular extremist movement; 666. Barak Mendelsohn, (Prof., Political Science, Haverford College), however, this need not be the case for successful recruitment by terrorist COMBATING JIHADISM: AMERICAN HEGEMONY AND organizations. For example, scientists may be motivated by a range of INTERSTATE COOPERATION IN THE WAR ON TERRORISM, 2009, factors that mutually align with terrorist intentions, including the age-old 79. A book by Abu Musab al Suri, one of the movement's main ideologues, incentives of money, revenge and perhaps the incarnation or restoration of confirms the growing importance of WMD in the jihadis' thinking. Al Suri national or personal glory. argues that WMD are the only means by which the jihadis can fight the 675. Charles Blair, (Dir., Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies), United States from a point of equality; he even criticizes bin Laden for JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 193- failing to use them in the 9/11 attack. The use of WMD, he argues, could shorten the struggle and could also serve to retaliate against Washington's 194. On December 1, 2001, CIA Director George Tenet made a hastily planned, clandestine trip to Pakistan. Tenet arrived in Islamabad deeply "barbaric behavior." Dismissing the usefulness of alternative means, al Suri shaken by the news that less than three months earlier--just weeks before states that "the ultimate choice is the destruction of the United States by operations of strategic symmetry through weapons of mass destruction." the attacks of September 11, 2001--al-Qa'ida and Taliban leaders had met with two former Pakistani nuclear weapon scientists in a joint quest to 667. Barak Mendelsohn, (Prof., Political Science, Haverford College), acquire nuclear weapons. Captured documents the scientists abandoned as COMBATING JIHADISM: AMERICAN HEGEMONY AND they fled Kabul from advancing anti-Taliban forces were evidence, in the INTERSTATE COOPERATION IN THE WAR ON TERRORISM, 2009, minds of top U.S. officials, that a nuclear device was now "within reach" of 139. Then came 9/11, demonstrating al Qaeda's lethality, ruthlessness, al-Qa'ida. sophistication, and global reach. Connecting the dots, observers throughout the world, most importantly state officials, understood that if al Qaeda 676. Charles Blair, (Dir., Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies), acquired WMD it would be more likely to use them to kill rather than as a JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 199. Current inventories of fissile materials are vast: As much as 2000 metric deterrent weapon. tons of HEU and 500 metric tons of separated plutonium, virtually all 668. Dennis Blair, (Dir., U.S. National Intelligence), CURRENT AND weapon-usable, exist globally. As for the former, over 99 percent of the FUTURE WORLDWIDE THREATS TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY global HEU stockpile is in the custody of just seven states: Russia and the OF THE UNITED STATES, Hrg. Senate Comm. on Armed Services, Mar. United States possess the vast majority, with France, the United Kingdom, 10, 2009, 25. Al Qaeda is the terrorist group that historically has sought the and China having significant stores. The amount of HEU in Pakistan and broadest range of CBRN attack capabilities, and we assess that it would use India is a fraction of the other nuclear weapon states, yet of all of the any CBRN capability it acquires in an anti-U.S. attack, preferably against countries just mentioned, they are the only states that presently continue to the Homeland. There also is a threat of biological or chemical attacks in the produce HEU. The remaining global stockpile of HEU--less than 1 percent U.S. Homeland by lone individuals. of the world's total--is spread out among 40 countries, in about 100 sites worldwide. The vast majority of this HEU, as discussed below, is found in 669. Sammy Salama, (Fellow, Combating Terrorism Center, U.S. Military Academy), JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, research reactors. 2009, 125. In the future, the threat of WMD usage by jihadists is likely to 677. Charles Blair, (Dir., Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies), continue as WMD manuals such as al-Mubtakkar continue to be JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 201. proliferated by jihadi outlets. More so, one should not discount the Every year the world's nuclear reactors produce about 10,000 tons of spent possibility that in the future jihadi operatives will acquire access to CBRN nuclear fuel, 75 tons of which is plutonium. Jihadists could theoretically agents or even ready-made weapons if favorable political circumstances fuel an IND with less than 15 kg of this so-called reactor-grade plutonium arise that facilitate such transfers or theft. Most notably, an Islamist (RGP). RGP is fabricated in commercial nuclear reactors around the world. takeover of Pakistan by parties sympathetic to the Taliban or al-Qa'ida Global stockpiles of separated civil plutonium totaled, at the end of 2005, would increase the risk of WMD proliferation to jihadists exponentially, as roughly 250 metric tons (enough for 40,000 nuclear weapons). would a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear facilities that would deteriorate 678. Charles Blair, (Dir., Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies), the security of Iranian nuclear and other WMD related facilities or may JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 202. simply motivate members of the Iranian security services to proliferate CBRN agents to jihadi terrorist organizations as payback. Jihadists might have a particular interest in research reactors because they are generally perceived to have lower security levels when compared to 670. Jeffrey Bale, (Prof., International Policy Studies, Monterey Institute of other potential sources of HEU and plutonium. Many countries have little to International Studies), JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS no security around their research reactors and "simply rely on the cavalry DESTRUCTION, 2009, 3. If the objective and subjective conditions coming" in the event of some kind of terrorist incursion. In Russia, for materialize, and there are soldiers, weapons, and money--even if this means example, which has more HEU-fueled research reactors than any other using biological, chemical, and bacterial [sic] weapons--we will conquer the country in the world, most civilian research reactor sites do not have the world, so that "There is no God but Allah, and Muhammad is His Prophet" security to withstand a sophisticated assault by terrorists, nor are they likely will be triumphant over the domes of Moscow, Washington, and Paris. – immune to subterfuge by multiple insiders acting in unison. Grand Ayatollah Ahmad Husayni al-Baghdadi. 679. Charles Blair, (Dir., Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies), 671. Barak Mendelsohn, (Prof., Political Science, Haverford College), JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 205. COMBATING JIHADISM: AMERICAN HEGEMONY AND Despite the technological security provided by PALs, "they are only INTERSTATE COOPERATION IN THE WAR ON TERRORISM, 2009, effective if the codes for the locks are also kept secure," notes Zia Mian. "If 142. Despite signs of progress, the risk from unsecured highly enriched anyone can have access to [or guess] the codes then PALs offer little if any uranium and weapons-grade plutonium remains significant. Russia is restraint as command and control devices," Mian warns. challenging Western assessments of the threat, and denies the urgency of 680. Charles Blair, (Dir., Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies), additional steps. Legal disagreements between Russia and the Western JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 213. donors concerning liability in case of accidents further slow international efforts. In addition, the risk expands well beyond the former Soviet Union Most active among jihadist groups seeking to acquire nuclear weapons and weapons-grade nuclear materials has been al-Qa'ida; according to the U.S. to facilities and material in other locations, particularly Eastern Europe. government, their determined efforts to acquire nuclear materials began "at Moreover, even the United States, which leads the overall endeavor, has failed to recover the highly enriched uranium it provided to other states in least as early as 1992." Jamal Ahmad al-Fadl, a Sudanese national and former Ibn Ladin associate, has testified that in late 1993 or early 1994 he the last four decades in support of their peaceful nuclear programs. This observed the preliminary phases of a transaction between al-Qa'ida and uranium could be enough to create about one thousand nuclear weapons. various operatives for the purchase of uranium in Khartoum, Sudan. It is not 672. Bhumitra Chakma, (Prof., Security Studies, U. of Hull), PAKISTAN’S known if the actual transaction (reportedly for $1.5 million) ever took place, NUCLEAR WEAPONS, 2009, 2. South Asia is generally considered to be yet al-Fadl's testimony is generally considered to be credible. a nuclear flashpoint and the implications of South Asia's nuclear tests for global nuclear proliferation are formidable. Also alarming is the possibility that these weapons may fall into the hands of terrorists; the likelihood of this is greater in the second nuclear age than anytime in history.
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681. Charles Blair, (Dir., Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies), 688. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 213. Al- TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING Qa'ida's efforts took a significant turn in 2000 and 2001, when Bin Ladin PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, and Mullah Omar (Taliban's leader and Afghanistan's de facto head of state 171. Within Russia, terrorist surveillance teams have carried out from 1996 to 2001) met with two former Pakistani nuclear scientists. One of reconnaissance at secret nuclear weapon storage sites; a Russian them, Sultan Bashirud-din Mahmood, was a former chairman of the businessman has offered $750,000 for stolen weapons-grade plutonium; and Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) and an expert in uranium the Beslan school massacre reconfirms terrorists' ability to strike in force, enrichment and plutonium production. Considered by Pakistan's Inter without warning or mercy. As just one indicator of the insider threat, in Services Intelligence (ISI) to be too politically and religiously radicalized 2006 Russian president Vladimir Putin fired Maj. Gen. Sergey for continued work as head of Pakistan's Khosab nuclear reactor complex, Shlyapuzhnikov, deputy chairman of the section of the Ministry of Internal Mahmood was forced out of office in 1999 and subsequently founded the Affairs (MVD) responsible for guarding the closed nuclear cities and other aid organization Ummah Tameer-e-Nau (UTN). Under the cover of UTN, secured locales, because, according to the Russian state newspaper, he was Mahmood, along with Abdul Majid, another PAEC scientist, allegedly met helping to organize smuggling in and out of these closed areas -- in with al-Qa'ida operatives and various Taliban state officials with the hopes particular, giving out passes that allowed people to go in and out without of assisting them in the fabrication of nuclear weapons (documents seized in being checked. Kabul detail UTN's desire to undertake uranium mining in Afghanistan). Over a period of a few days, three weeks prior to the 9/11 attacks, 689. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING Mahmood and Majid reportedly met with Bin Ladin and Ayman al- PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, Zawahiri, around a "campfire in Kandahar," to discuss al- Qa'ida's quest for nuclear and radiological weapons. 172. Theft of HEU and plutonium is not a hypothetical worry; it is an ongoing reality. As a recent example, in February 2006 Russian citizen 682. Charles Blair, (Dir., Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies), Oleg Khinsagov was arrested in Georgia (along with three Georgian JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 214. accomplices) with some 79.5 grams of 89 percent enriched HEU. He Following the demise of the Taliban in 2001, materials recovered by claimed he had several more kilograms available for sale. The International coalition military forces and the media shed more light on al-Qa'ida's Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed eighteen incidents of the nuclear enterprises while in Afghanistan. While most of the documents theft or loss of HEU or separated plutonium. revealed a relatively low level of understanding vis-a-vis nuclear weapons, some were reported to be of "higher quality," including, according to 690. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING nuclear expert Matthew Bunn, "one fact about initiating a nuclear chain PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, reaction that remains classified and could not simply have been downloaded from the internet." Since 2002 there have been perennial reports of al-Qa'ida 173. Another unsettling factor is that the amounts of fissile material required for a bomb are small. The Nagasaki bomb contained some 6 attempting to procure nuclear weapons and weapons-grade materials--none kilograms of plutonium, which would fit easily in a soda can. A similar of which are believed to have been successful. There are reports as well that al-Qa'ida has "at least one Central Asian nuclear weapons expert" presently HEU bomb would require only about three times as much. For a simpler but somewhat less-efficient design, roughly 50 kilograms of HEU would be working within its ranks. Not surprisingly, there are reports that al-Qa'ida needed -- about the size of a six-pack of beer. In either case, the material for continues to maintain a strong desire to employ nuclear weapons against the United States and its allies. a nuclear bomb could easily be transported across borders in already manufactured parts that would be small and easy to hide, but which could 683. Charles Blair, (Dir., Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies), be assembled in a matter of hours at the target. Even a fully assembled JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 216. bomb of the crude type terrorists might make could fit in a truck, a fishing The future will likely see the growth of fissile materials stockpiles and boat, a small plane, or the hold of a yacht. nuclear weapon arsenals in some of the world's least stable regions. It is 691. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING very plausible that this dynamic will be bolstered by new nuclear states TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING amid a post–Iraq exodus of increasingly well-trained jihadists. In December 2001, George Tenet believed that al-Qa'ida was on the verge of a nuclear PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, 174. The simplest type of nuclear bomb that terrorists could build is the capability; seven years later, jihadists are closer than ever. gun-type bomb, which involves little more than slamming two pieces of 684. Charles Ferguson, (Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations), HEU together at high speed. The bomb that incinerated the Japanese city of COMBATING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION: THE FUTURE Hiroshima, for example, was a cannon that fired a shell of HEU into rings OF INTERNATIONAL NONPROLIFERATION POLICY, 2009, 34. of HEU. Building such a bomb usually requires some ability to cast and Terrorists could try to acquire nuclear weapons through two routes: obtain machine uranium, a reasonable knowledge of the nuclear physics involved, an intact nuclear weapon from a nation-state's arsenal or make their own and a good understanding of cannons and ballistics. An ability to undertake improvised nuclear device (IND). Terrorists could buy, steal, or be given some chemical processing may also be needed (for example, to dissolve the weapons or the materials to build weapons. research reactor fuel containing HEU in acid, separate the HEU, and reduce the HEU to metal), but the chemical processing required is no more 685. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS sophisticated than some of the processing criminals routinely undertake in AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 154. With the 9/11 terrorist attacks came the awareness and understanding that jihadist terrorist the illegal drug industry. organizations are both willing and capable of planning and carrying out 692. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING successful mass casualty attacks against their chosen targets. Authorities TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING have uncovered numerous plots, raw materials, equipment, and even small- PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, scale laboratories dedicated to the development of weapons of mass 174-175. Repeated U.S. government studies have concluded that terrorists destruction, including biological and toxin weapons, and numerous might well be able to make a crude bomb without such knowledgeable help. statements have been made by al-Qa'ida spokesmen as well as other To slam two pieces of HEU together, unwritten "tacit knowledge" is not jihadists justifying the use of weapons of mass destruction against their likely to be crucial, in contrast to more complex endeavors such as getting targets. the many finicky pieces of a uranium enrichment centrifuge to work properly. In any case, al-Qaeda has been working to recruit such 686. Graham Allison, (Dir., Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard U.), TERRORISM, 2009, 77. The only high hurdle to knowledgeable help, and, if it succeeds, the world may never know until it is too late. creating a nuclear bomb is access to fissionable material--an ingredient that is, fortunately, difficult and expensive to manufacture. But as John Foster, a 693. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING leading American bomb maker and former director of the Lawrence TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING Livermore National Laboratories, wrote a quarter century ago, "If the PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, essential nuclear materials are at hand, it is possible to make an atomic 178-179. Taking the good news with the bad, what are the chances of a bomb using information that is available in the open literature." terrorist nuclear attack? The short answer is that nobody knows. Former secretary of defense William Perry and former assistant secretary of defense 687. Jeffrey Richelson, (Sr. Fellow, National Security Archives), Graham Allison are among those who have estimated the chance at more DEFUSING ARMAGEDDON: INSIDE NEST: AMERICA’S SECRET than 50 percent over the next ten years. In 2006 I published a mathematical NUCLEAR BOMB SQUAD, 2009, 218. It might indeed be possible for a terrorist group -- whether it be AlQaeda, Aum Shinrikyo, or another model that provided a structured, step-by-step way of thinking through the problem. A set of plausible illustrative values for the input parameters organization -- to raise the money, recruit the personnel, assemble the resulted in a 29 percent ten-year probability estimate -- by coincidence, the machinery, and acquire the HEU to build an improvised device. Or in some circumstances, efforts to deter a regime from passing on its nuclear same as the median estimate of the ten-year probability of a nuclear attack on the United States in a survey of national security experts by Sen. Richard weapons to a terrorist group might fail. Events that prevent deterrence from Lugar's office a few years ago. Because there are large uncertainties in each being effective could include the impending defeat and dismantlement of a nuclear-armed rogue regime or the complete collapse of a government's of those inputs, however, the real probability could well be either higher or lower. But if these estimates are even within a factor of three to five of authority combined with a military sympathetic to terrorists' cause. being correct, and if, as I believe, there is a large chance that such an attack would be directed at Manhattan or Washington, D.C., then the danger of nuclear terrorism is high enough to have a significant effect on the life expectancy of everyone who lives and works in downtown Washington or midtown Manhattan.
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694. Moorthy Muthuswamy, (Ph.D. in Nuclear Physics, Stony Brook U.), 701. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS DEFEATING POLITICAL ISLAM: THE NEW COLD WAR, 2009, 225. AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 159. Another The fact that the primary jihad-sponsoring nations either have nukes or are motivating factor for jihadist terrorist groups to pursue a BW capability close to achieving the threshold is truly a nightmare come true. Pakistan's relates to prestige or "bragging rights." Possession of a biological weapon acquiring of nuclear weapons and spreading nuclear technology was (regardless of the degree of sophistication of the weapon), may provide a intended to further an "ideological" cause, taken to mean jihad; this was jihadist cell or group with respect and credibility within the jihadist admitted by none other than the disgraced Pakistani nuclear scientist Qadeer community writ large. Such an elevation in status among other terrorist Khan himself. networks may not only boost morale but, more alarmingly, boost recruitment. 695. Richard English, (Prof., Politics, Queens U.), TERRORISM: HOW TO RESPOND, 2009, 17. Terrorist attacks could involve the use of a pre- 702. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS formed or a newly improvised nuclear bomb or an attack on a nuclear AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 160. As was power plant or other facility, and the possibility of such an eventuality demonstrated by the 2001 anthrax attacks, biological weapons can have an seems genuine. There have been recurrent attempted and actual thefts of the acute psychological effect on the target population. Though these attacks materials needed for making nuclear weapons (most notably, perhaps, resulted in a low mortality rate - five deaths - fear of becoming infected during the transition process from the Soviet Union to Russia), and the with anthrax rippled disproportionately across the nation, frightening possibility of further thefts seems real enough. Weapons and nuclear millions of Americans because of the indiscriminate nature of the weapon. materials are currently accessible rather than theft- or acquisition-proof, and A jihadist attack with a biological agent, regardless of sophistication of the there exist many places in the world from which terrorists could acquire a weapon, would likely cause high-levels of anxiety, widespread fear, and nuclear weapon or the fissile material from which a nuclear weapon could perhaps even paranoia, resulting in self-isolation, withdrawal from social be made. interaction and activities, and severe social disruption to civil society. 696. Barak Mendelsohn, (Prof., Political Science, Haverford College), 703. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS COMBATING JIHADISM: AMERICAN HEGEMONY AND AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 160-161. The 2001 INTERSTATE COOPERATION IN THE WAR ON TERRORISM, 2009, anthrax attacks in the United States effectively shut down the nation's 78. The tremendous difficulties the network faced in pushing forward its capitol, causing severe economic disruption to the country long after the last nuclear program before 9/11 only increased after it lost its base in case of illness occurred. The attack caused severe economic damage not Afghanistan. Lacking the needed equipment and laboratories, al Qaeda only from lack of business continuity, but also from the high cost of could obtain nuclear weapons either off the shelf or by purchasing enough decontamination of buildings and other locations. Cleaning the Brentwood fissile material to assemble a crude nuclear device. Experts agree that while mail facility, located outside of Washington, DC, for example, cost a the threat is real, neither method is likely to bear fruit for the network in the staggering $130 million and took 26 months to complete. short term. Consequently, its main drive since 9/11 has been toward the acquisition of biological and chemical weapons, as the technology for their 704. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 163. Recent development is comparatively easy. Specialists are confident that al Qaeda advances in genetic engineering, biotechnology, vaccine production, and will eventually gain the expertise to launch a small-scale biological attack resulting in mass casualties. The route to chemical weapons is expected to other life sciences research, however, are rapidly diffusing the knowledge, equipment, and materials needed to produce both crude and sophisticated be even easier. biological weapons. Increased access to the Internet has expanded the 697. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS availability of the knowledge and specialized equipment needed to produce AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 154. Key to biological weapons, such as seed stocks and culture collections, well countering future biological weapons terrorism is developing an beyond traditional scientific and technical communities. Research once understanding of the threat as it relates to jihadist terrorism. Advances in limited to national-level weapons programs can now be conducted in life sciences research have rapidly diffused the knowledge, equipment, and civilian settings. materials needed to produce even quite sophisticated biological weapons 705. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS around the world, potentially placing them in the hands of state and nonstate AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 163. There are a actors. The intersection of jihadist terrorism with this increasing revolution in life sciences only makes the threat more prevalent. variety of avenues by which terrorists may obtain biological and toxin weapons, such as theft (from a state-run program), purchase (on the black 698. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS market), and self-production. The potential to divert BW materials and AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 154. The difficulty in supplies for sale on the black market is particularly strong in countries detecting biological terrorist attacks is that symptoms of illness do not where former bioweapons scientists receive only a fraction of their previous appear immediately, as would occur in a chemical, nuclear, or conventional salaries or are unable to find work in their fields (i.e., Russia, Libya, Iraq, weapon attack. Because most biological weapons consist of living and South Africa). organisms, symptoms will occur only after an incubation period that may last days to weeks. Many times, the initial symptoms could appear as a 706. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 164. Today, over common cold or influenza and might be mistaken for a normal outbreak of 1500 state-owned and commercial culture collections worldwide maintain, infectious disease. Until large numbers of individuals report illness, the attack could go undetected. exchange, and sell samples of pathogens and toxins for research purposes. Many of these culture collections possess dangerous pathogens that are not 699. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS adequately secured and controlled, making them vulnerable to theft or AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 156-157. Another diversion. This is particularly a concern in countries with underdeveloped delivery method could include self-infection with a contagious agent, such infrastructures and weak regulations, such as the failure to have physical as smallpox or plague. There are uncertainties with this method, of course, protection controls, access controls, materials accountability, and personnel with serious and even fatal risks to the deliverer as well as the risk of screening, to name a few. indiscriminately infecting and even killing group members, leaders, followers, family, and friends. Fanatical jihadists, however, may choose to 707. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 165. Intelligence accept the risks, believing that even in the "worst" case scenario, they will indicates that al-Qa'ida and other jihadist groups have actively been become martyrs. In one translation of a hadith (oral translations relating to the words and deeds of Prophet Muhammad, which are considered attempting to acquire biological and toxin weapons for a number of years. Authorities have uncovered numerous plots, raw materials, equipment, and fundamental sources of Islamic theology), the Prophet said "Plague is the even small-scale laboratories dedicated to the development of biological cause of martyrdom of every Muslim (who dies because of it).” Another hadith states that, "Five are regarded as martyrs: They are those who die and toxin weapons. In one of the few statements that elaborate on the jihadist desire to use BW--beyond mere mention of it along with other types because of plague, abdominal disease, drowning or a falling building etc., of unconventional weapons--al-Qa'ida spokesman Suleiman Abu Gheith and the martyrs in Allah's Cause." In extreme cases, such translations could provide religious justification for suicidal biological terrorism. stated in 2002: "We have the right to kill four million Americans, two million of them children...and cripple them in the hundreds of thousands. 700. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS Furthermore, it is our obligation to fight them with chemical and biological AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 159. Why would a weapons, to afflict them with the fatal woes that have afflicted Muslims terrorist group choose a biological weapon over other types of weapons, because of their chemical and biological weapons." especially those known for their reliability and easy accessibility, like 708. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS conventional explosives? Their ability to cause widespread death and AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 166. Open-source disease, their indiscriminate nature, the shortage or complete lack of vaccines and therapeutics to treat many of the diseases caused by biological evidence, presented below, indicates that jihadist terrorists have been actively seeking out the resources, equipment, and technical know-how to agents, their capability to invoke images of suffering and horror, and their obtain a biological weapon. There are numerous incidents that illustrate that similarity to apocalyptic biblical diseases and plagues, make them appealing to jihadist and other terrorist groups. Biological weapons are thus appealing jihadists have progressed beyond mere rhetoric when it comes to BW terrorism. to jihadists for many of the same reasons as chemical, radiological and nuclear weapons that have been thoroughly dealt with in other chapters of this volume, because they provide the opportunity to inflict serious physical, psychological, and economic harm on targets.
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709. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS 717. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 166. In 2001 and TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING early 2002, investigators in Afghanistan uncovered an abandoned laboratory PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, under construction near Kandahar and numerous reference manuals and 176. Politically, confidence in the U.S. government would be profoundly, other equipment and materials related to biological weapons development, perhaps irrevocably, shaken, because no one could be certain that the confirming fears that al-Qa'ida was indeed seeking WMD. While the government that had failed to protect its citizens from such a devastating laboratories were dismantled, the discovery highlights the threat from attack would succeed in protecting them from another. Far more than after jihadist bioterrorism and indicates that at least rudimentary BW knowledge 9/11, U.S. policies on eavesdropping, handling of terrorist suspects, and the and materials have fallen into the hands of jihadists. legitimacy of attacking foreign countries to prevent possible future attacks would change dramatically. America and the world would be transformed 710. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS forever -- and not for the better. AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 167. Perhaps most illustrative of the threat of jihadist BW terrorism is a recent report on the 718. Thomas Madden, (Prof., History, St. Louis U.), EMPIRES OF status of al-Qa'ida's WMD program. On February 3, 2008, a Los Angeles TRUST: HOW ROME BUILT – AND AMERICA IS BUILDING – A Times article reported that al-Qa'ida member Abu Khabab al-Masri, NEW WORLD, 2009, 288. Consider this scenario: A1-Qaeda issues a video formerly believed to have been deceased from a 2006 U.S. airstrike in on the Internet in which three masked men show off a recently obtained Pakistan, was in fact alive and in charge of resurrecting al-Qa'ida's WMD nuclear "suitcase bomb." They demand an immediate withdrawal of all program. American troops from the Middle East and the release of all Islamist detainees in American military installations. If these demands are not met 711. David Sanger, (Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times), THE INHERITANCE: THE WORLD OBAMA CONFRONTS AND THE within seventy-two hours, the terrorists promise to explode their device in a large American city. Experts who study the video confirm that the terrorists CHALLENGES TO AMERICAN POWER, 2009, 420-421. Though probably do have a working nuclear device and that they are probably politicians tend to talk about nuclear and biological attacks in the same breath, they have almost nothing in common. We invest in nuclear detection already in the United States. A comprehensive security crackdown is ordered in all of the nation's major cities. The president addresses the nation to protect ourselves from a detonation; after it happens, it's way too late. and the world but naturally refuses to submit to the terrorist demands. Then, Biological attacks are almost undetectable in real time. There's no boom, no mushroom cloud to tell you that an aerosol can has just dispersed anthrax or two hours after the presidential address, while the roads out of American cities are still jammed with fleeing cars, the terrorists release a one-word pneumonic plague. The dirty little secret of those BioWatch detectors is that response: "Judgment." A massive explosion goes off in downtown Chicago. they are designed to tell you what happened a few hours ago, not what's happening now. Most of the loop is leveled, including the Sears Tower. One million Americans are killed in the initial blast. Another two hundred thousand are 712. Kenneth Christopher, (Prof., Criminal Justice, Park U.), PORT critically injured. Deadly radiation necessitates the evacuation of the entire SECURITY MANAGEMENT, 2009, 35. The terrorist events and criminal Chicagoland area. As the world looks on with horror, in the streets of Cairo, activities that have been witnessed have alerted the world to the fact that Damascus, and Tehran there is dancing. vessels, and by association, the ports they access, be they civilian or 719. Thomas Madden, (Prof., History, St. Louis U.), EMPIRES OF military, are exceptionally vulnerable to acts of terrorism. TRUST: HOW ROME BUILT – AND AMERICA IS BUILDING – A 713. David Sanger, (Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times), NEW WORLD, 2009, 288-289. How would Americans respond? If the THE INHERITANCE: THE WORLD OBAMA CONFRONTS AND THE toppling of the World Trade Center and the attack on the Pentagon brought CHALLENGES TO AMERICAN POWER, 2009, 418. But the biggest about the conquest of Afghanistan and Iraq, what would the elimination of a discovery arose from the fact that the government's plans all focused on a major American city bring? It is not difficult to guess. The outrage of the single place and event into which emergency help would be poured--a new American people would be beyond measure. A nuclear retaliation would not Ground Zero. "They thought it was going to be like Hurricane Katrina," said be out of the question. Indeed, Americans might well conclude that Islam Ashton Carter, who helped organize the event. "And it won't. It will feel itself was too dangerous to live with it. What then? The closing of like it's an attack everywhere, because if San Francisco is hit, the next mosques? Internment camps? Perhaps even the conquest of Arabia? We question will be whether to evacuate Washington." "The terrorist who says cannot know. But in that sort of atmosphere of fear and rage, anything is he's got another weapon will have enormous credibility" even if it's a bluff, possible. Carter noted. The financial impact will be instantaneous--and calamitous. 720. William Perry, (Sr. Fellow, Hoover Institution), U.S. NUCLEAR 714. Jeffrey Richelson, (Sr. Fellow, National Security Archives), WEAPONS POLICY, 2009, 7. Even one nuclear explosion, causing DEFUSING ARMAGEDDON: INSIDE NEST: AMERICA’S SECRET destruction anywhere, would have a catastrophic impact on U.S. and NUCLEAR BOMB SQUAD, 2009, 218. Although the damage from a dirty international security and profoundly change human history. bomb attack -- the type threatened in Jake Brahm's hoax -- would be significantly less than that from a nuclear detonation, it would still be 721. George Lemieux, (U.S. Senator, Florida), SAFE PORT ACT REAUTHORIZATION: SECURING OUR NATION'S CRITICAL significant. Indeed, according to one former NEST member, the issue of a INFRASTRUCTURE, Senate Hrg., July 21, 2010, 43. I want to talk about dirty bomb has been considered "more sensitive" than the threat of a stolen or improvised nuclear device because a dirty bomb is so much more likely port security, and I want to talk about two areas. I want to follow on what Senator Lautenberg said about this container issue. Five percent's not to occur. It requires material that is more plentiful and less securely held acceptable. And if the law says 100 percent, then we have to get toward 100 than weapons-grade plutonium or highly enriched uranium. Just as important, the task of building a dirty bomb is dramatically easier than percent. And although that may be a very difficult task, frankly and respectfully, it's your job to get there. If you can't get there and that is an constructing a device to produce a nuclear yield -- the former being well unreasonable requirement, then we need to change the law. But, if the law is within the ability of solitary individuals. that you're at 100 percent, we need to try to get to 100 percent, and 5 715. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING percent is very far from 100 percent. TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING 722. Graham Allison, (Dir., Belfer Center for Science and International PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, Affairs, Harvard U.), TERRORISM, 2009, 77. Terrorists would not find it 176. A bomb with the explosive power of 10,000 tons of TNT -- that is, 10 kilotons, which is somewhat smaller than the bomb that obliterated difficult to smuggle such a nuclear device into the United States. The nuclear material in question is smaller than a football. Even an assembled Hiroshima -- could easily be delivered in an ordinary truck. If set off in device, like a suitcase nuclear weapon, could be sent in a Federal Express midtown Manhattan on a typical workday, such a bomb could kill half a million people and cause $1 trillion in direct economic damage. Neither the package, shipped in a cargo container, or checked as airline baggage. Of the seven million cargo containers that arrive in U.S. ports each year, fewer United States nor any other country is remotely prepared to cope with the than 5 percent are opened for inspection. As the chief executive of CSX aftermath of such an attack -- caring for tens of thousands of burned, wounded, and irradiated victims, evacuating hundreds of thousands of Lines, one of the foremost container-shipping companies, noted, "If you can smuggle heroin in containers, you may be able to smuggle in a nuclear people in the path of the fallout, restoring essential services to a partly bomb." burned and irradiated city, and much more. 716. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING 723. Jeffrey Richelson, (Sr. Fellow, National Security Archives), TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING DEFUSING ARMAGEDDON: INSIDE NEST: AMERICA’S SECRET NUCLEAR BOMB SQUAD, 2009, 226. More than one observer has noted PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, the ease with which narcotics, including large shipments of marijuana, are 176. Terrorists -- either those who committed the attack or others -- would certainly claim they had more bombs already hidden in U.S. cities (whether smuggled into the United States by land, sea, and air, as well as the ability of people to cross into the United States from its northern or southern they did or not), and the fear that this might be true could lead to panicked neighbors. The ability to evade security systems has also been noted, along evacuations of major U.S. cities, creating widespread havoc and economic disruption. If the bomb went off in Washington, D.C., large fractions of the with the lapses of security personnel and equipment. In March 2006, the Associated Press revealed that a study conducted for the Department of federal government would be destroyed, and effective governance of the Homeland Security found that lapses by private firms at foreign and country would be very much in doubt. Devastating economic aftershocks would reverberate throughout the country and the world -- global effects American ports, aboard ships, and with respect to trains and trucks "would enable unmanifested materials or weapons of mass destruction to be that in 2005 UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan warned would push "tens of introduced into the supply chain." Cargo containers, the study revealed, millions of people into dire poverty," creating "a second death toll throughout the developing world." could be opened secretly while in transit to allow items to be inserted or removed.
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724. Alan Bersin, (Commissioner, Customs and Border Protection, U.S. 734. Charles Ferguson, (Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations), Department of Homeland Security), SAFE PORT ACT COMBATING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION: THE FUTURE REAUTHORIZATION: SECURING OUR NATION'S CRITICAL OF INTERNATIONAL NONPROLIFERATION POLICY, 2009, 37. INFRASTRUCTURE, Senate Hrg., July 21, 2010, 36. Senator Assuming terrorists could acquire enough fissile material for an IND, they LAUTENBERG. How many ports—or, how many containers—percentage would face other technical challenges. They would have to design and build of containers do we cover, in terms of your responsibility? Mr. BERSIN. a bomb that would have a decent chance of working. Still, unlike militaries, The—there are approximately, last year, just under 10 million containers, which demand highly reliable and safe nuclear weapons, terrorist groups and we are— Senator LAUTENBERG. That's out of how many? Mr. would probably be satisfied in building an IND that produces a significant BERSIN. Ten million containers that are coming to the United States, and but not necessarily a predictable explosive yield. Relying on weapons we are scanning 4 to 5 percent of those, sir. technology that has a long and proven track record, nuclear terrorists would likely try to make a first-generation type of nuclear bomb, such as the gun- 725. Barak Mendelsohn, (Prof., Political Science, Haverford College), COMBATING JIHADISM: AMERICAN HEGEMONY AND type or implosion-type device. More advanced designs such as thermonuclear or hydrogen bombs would be too technically challenging for INTERSTATE COOPERATION IN THE WAR ON TERRORISM, 2009, terrorist groups to build unless they had assistance from a nation-state 77-78. Al Qaeda had only modest success with the other elements of its WMD program. Its chemical weapons program in Afghanistan consisted of sponsor, and even in that unlikely situation the technical hurdles would be formidable. laboratories where it succeeded in producing cyanide and in developing crude procedures for making mustard agents, sarin, and VX; but it had 735. Charles Ferguson, (Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations), made little further progress when the American invasion disrupted its COMBATING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION: THE FUTURE operations. OF INTERNATIONAL NONPROLIFERATION POLICY, 2009, 41. Strong desire to acquire CBRN weapons is not enough. Al Qaeda has 726. Marcus Binder, (Consultant, MKB Consulting), JIHADISTS AND expressed interest in CBRN weapons for many years but has not used these WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 149. At the present time it is clear that the undeniable, and threatening, desire of some jihadists to weapons. This terrorist organization has done preliminary work on anthrax, cyanide, and ricin. Like Aum, al Qaeda has substantial monetary assets, obtain and employ chemical weapons in a way that causes mass casualties partially through Osama bin Laden's wealth. Al Qaeda operatives had greatly outstrips their collective ability to do so. Almost without exception, attempts to use chemicals as weapons have been unsuccessful. sought to buy enriched uranium, but according to press reporting and court documents, there is at least one known case in which they were duped and 727. Cheryl Loeb, (Research Associate, National Defense U.), JIHADISTS instead obtained non-weapons-usable radioactive junk, which may not have AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 162. Perhaps the been radioactively potent enough to make a powerful RDD. Al Qaeda has most important barrier to jihadist acquisition and use of biological weapons also failed at attempts to purchase nuclear weapons. Even with an is technical capability. Until the 2001 anthrax letter attacks against the international network and relatively large financial resources, WMD can United States, many experts believed that the technical barriers were too remain out of reach. To date, al Qaeda has made more effective use of its difficult to surmount for most, if not all, terrorist groups. The example of financial and organizational power through conventional terror techniques. Aum Shinrikyo amply demonstrates that even if a group has significant 736. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), AMERICAN access to resources, developing a biological weapon and a sophisticated FOREIGN POLICY AND THE POLITICS OF FEAR: THREAT delivery method are extremely difficult undertakings. INFLATION SINCE 9/11, 2009, 195-196. Nuclear weapons can inflict 728. Milton Leitenberg, (Sr. Research Fellow, U. Maryland), massive destruction of course, and an atomic bomb in the hands of a TERRORISM, 2009, 121. The United States has spent at least $33 billion terrorist group could kill tens of thousands of people or even, in exceptional since 2002 to combat the threat of biological terrorism. The trouble is, the circumstances, more. And warnings about the possibility that small groups risk that terrorists will use biological agents is being systematically and could fabricate nuclear weapons have been repeatedly uttered at least since deliberately exaggerated. 1946 when A-bomb maker J. Robert Oppenheimer agreed that "three or four men" could smuggle atomic bomb units into New York and "blow up 729. Milton Leitenberg, (Sr. Research Fellow, U. Maryland), the whole city." Such assertions proliferated after the 1950s when the TERRORISM, 2009, 122-123. There are two main sources of bioterrorism "suitcase bomb" appeared to become a practical possibility, and dire threats: first, from countries developing bioweapons, and second, from terrorist groups that might buy, steal or manufacture them. The first threat is warnings about nuclear terrorism have escalated with the stimulus of 9/11 -- even though the terrorists used weapons no more sophisticated than box- declining. U.S. intelligence estimates say the number of countries that cutters on that terrible day. However, these cries of alarm have obviously so conduct offensive bioweapons programs has fallen in the last 15 years from 13 to nine, as South Africa, Libya, Iraq and Cuba were dropped. There is no far proven to be much off the mark. It is also essential to note that making a nuclear weapon is an extraordinarily difficult task. publicly available evidence that even the most hostile of the nine remaining countries--Syria and Iran--are ramping up their programs. And, despite the 737. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), AMERICAN fear that a hostile nation could help terrorists get biological weapons, no FOREIGN POLICY AND THE POLITICS OF FEAR: THREAT country has ever done so--even nations known to have trained terrorists. INFLATION SINCE 9/11, 2009, 196. A common concern envisions a newly nuclear country palming off a bomb or two to friendly terrorists for 730. Milton Leitenberg, (Sr. Research Fellow, U. Maryland), delivery abroad. However, this is exceedingly improbable because there TERRORISM, 2009, 123. Al Qaeda tried to develop bioweapons from 1997 until the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, but declassified documents would be too much risk, even for a country led by extremists, that the ultimate source of the weapon would be discovered. As Matthew Bunn puts found by U.S. forces outside Kandahar indicate the group never obtained it: "A dictator or oligarch bent on maintaining power is highly unlikely to the necessary pathogens. take the immense risk of transferring such a devastating capability to 731. Milton Leitenberg, (Sr. Research Fellow, U. Maryland), terrorists they cannot control, given the ever-present possibility that the TERRORISM, 2009, 123. At a conference in Tokyo [in February 2006] material would be traced back to its origin." bioterrorism experts called for new programs to counter the possibility that terrorists could genetically engineer new pathogens. Yet three of the leading 738. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), AMERICAN scientists in the field have said there is no likelihood at this time that a FOREIGN POLICY AND THE POLITICS OF FEAR: THREAT INFLATION SINCE 9/11, 2009, 197. No terrorist group, including al- terrorist group could perform such a feat. Qaeda, has shown anything resembling the technical expertise necessary to 732. Charles Blair, (Dir., Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies), fabricate or deal with a bomb. And contacts -- "academic," it is claimed -- JIHADISTS AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 2009, 199- between Pakistani scientists and al-Qaeda were abruptly broken off after 200. Although less weapons-grade plutonium is needed to fuel an IND 9/11. In testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on compared to one utilizing uranium, jihadists would face several challenges January 11, 2007, FBI Director Robert Mueller, who had been highly with the material. Plutonium is "so unusual as to approach the alarmist about the terrorist potential in previous testimony, was stressing unbelievable," wrote plutonium pioneer Glenn Seaborg in 1967. "Under that his chief concern within the United States had become homegrown some conditions it is as hard and brittle as glass; under others, as soft as groups, and that, while remaining concerned that things could change in the plastic or lead. It will burn and crumble quickly to powder when heated in future, "few if any terrorist groups" were likely to possess the required air, or slowly disintegrate when kept at room temperature.... And it is expertise to produce nuclear weapons -- or, for that matter, biological or fiendishly toxic, even in small amounts." chemical ones. 733. Charles Ferguson, (Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations), COMBATING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION: THE FUTURE OF INTERNATIONAL NONPROLIFERATION POLICY, 2009, 34. As of early 2006, there were an estimated 27,000 nuclear warheads in the world. Russia and the United States have all but about 1,000 of these weapons. Britain, China, France, Israel, India, and Pakistan possess the remainder. North Korea, a self-declared nuclear-armed country, may also have upward of about ten nuclear bombs. Although some novels and movies give the impression that terrorists could relatively easily steal nuclear weapons, in reality it appears that nuclear-armed nations strongly guard these weapons.
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739. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), DEBATING 745. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, QAEDA, 2010, 169. At the present time and likely for the foreseeable 379-380. Despite the occasional huffing and puffing of its leaders and future, stateless groups are simply incapable of manufacturing the required spokesmen over the years, one might wonder whether al-Qaeda even fissile material for a bomb, because the process requires an effort on an "desires" to set off an atomic explosion -- or attack the United States at industrial scale. Moreover, they are unlikely to be supplied with the material home at all. Although there have been plenty of terrorist attacks in the by a state for the same reasons a state is unlikely to give them a workable world since 2001, all (thus far, at least) have relied on conventional bomb. Thus, they would need to steal or illicitly purchase this crucial destructive methods. There has not even been the occasional gas bomb, not material. even in Iraq where the technology is hardly much of a secret -- Saddam Hussein's government had extensively used chemical weapons in the past. It 746. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- was in 1996 that one of the gurus in terrorism studies, Walter Laqueur, QAEDA, 2010, 173. Some observers have insisted that it would be "easy" assured the world that some terrorist groups "almost certainly" will use weapons of mass destruction "in the foreseeable future." Presumably, any for terrorists to assemble a crude bomb if they could get enough fissile material, and one popular article even declared the task to be "child's play." future foreseeable in 1996 is now history, but in contrast to that confident But there are those who beg to differ. Atomic scientists, perhaps laboring assertion, terrorists in effect seem to be heeding the advice found in a memo on an al-Qaeda laptop seized in Pakistan in 2004: "Make use of that which under the concern, in the words of investigative journalist William Langewiesche, that "a declaration of safety can at any time be proved is available . . . rather than waste valuable time becoming despondent over spectacularly wrong," have been comparatively restrained in cataloguing the that which is not within your reach" -- that is, keep it simple, stupid. difficulties terrorists would face in constructing a bomb. However, 740. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC physicists Wirz and Egger have published a paper that does so, and it OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- bluntly concludes that the task "could hardly be accomplished by a QAEDA, 2010, xi. This book examines the atomic bomb problem and subnational group." They point out that precise blueprints are required, not concludes that, like earlier insomniacs in the atomic obsession tradition, just sketches and general ideas, and that even with a good blueprint the Keller, Governor Kean, Director Mueller, and former spook Mowatt- terrorist group "would most certainly be forced to redesign." They also Larssen--indeed, the entire senior leadership--should feel free to get some stress that the work, far from being "easy," is difficult, dangerous, and sleep. Perhaps eyebrows can even be lowered and muffins consumed. extremely exacting, and that the technical requirements "in several fields Central to the argument is an assessment of the costs and consequences of verge on the unfeasible." They conclude that "it takes much more than the obsession with nuclear weapons over the seven decades of our "atomic knowledge of the workings of nuclear weapons and access to fissile age." Fears and anxieties about them, while understandable, have been material to successfully manufacture a usable weapon." excessive, and they have severely, detrimentally, and even absurdly 747. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC distorted spending priorities while inspiring policies that have often been OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- overwrought, ill conceived, counterproductive, and sometimes massively destructive. And they continue to do so. QAEDA, 2010, 174. Los Alamos research director Younger has more recently made a similar argument. It is simply "wrong to assume that 741. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC nuclear weapons are now easy to make," he says, expressing his amazement OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- at "self-declared 'nuclear weapons experts,' many of whom have never seen QAEDA, 2010, 227-228. One group that tried, in the early 1990s, to use a real nuclear weapon," who "hold forth on how easy it is to make a them was the Japanese apocalyptic group, Aum Shinrikyo. Unlike al-Qaeda, functioning nuclear explosive." Information is readily available for getting it was not under siege, and it had money, expertise, a remote and secluded the general idea behind a rudimentary nuclear explosive, but none of this is haven in which to set up shop, even a private uranium mine. After making detailed enough to "enable the confident assembly of a real nuclear dozens of mistakes in judgment, planning, and execution in its nuclear explosive." Although he remains concerned that a terrorist group could buy quest, it turned to biological weapons, which, as it happened, didn't work or steal a nuclear device or be given one by an established nuclear country, either, and finally to chemical ones, resulting eventually in a somewhat Younger is quick to enumerate the difficulties the group would confront botched release of sarin gas in a Tokyo subway that managed to kill a total when attempting to fabricate one on their own. He stresses that uranium is of 12 people. "exceptionally difficult to machine," while "plutonium is one of the most complex metals ever discovered, a material whose basic properties are 742. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC sensitive to exactly how it is processed," and both require special machining OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- QAEDA, 2010, 229. Despite the rain of threats issued by its loquacious technology. leaders and spokesmen over the years, one might be led to wonder whether 748. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC al-Qaeda even "desires" to set off an atomic explosion--or to attack the OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- United States at home at all. One former radical jihadist, Libya's Noman QAEDA, 2010, 175. The bomb makers would not be able to test the product Benotman, remembers attending a high-level meeting with 200 top jihadists to be sure they were on the right track. Although it is true, as Allison points from around the world at bin Laden's headquarters in Afghanistan in 2000. out, that the bomb dropped on Hiroshima had not been tested, Levi parses At the meeting, Benotman says he cited various jihadist failures of the the issue more fully, noting that, during the project, scientists and engineers 1990s, particularly the spectacularly counterproductive insurgency in spent years testing not only the gun device itself, but the trigger for the Algeria--precursor to the later failure in Iraq--and urged bin Laden to "stop chain reaction, the casting and machining of the uranium metal in order to his campaign against the United States because it was going to lead to detect impurities in the product and to avoid fires and criticality accidents nowhere." According to Benotman, bin Laden, apparently with 9/11 in during production, and different configurations of material to determine mind, replied, "I have one more operation, and after that I will quit." He how it would behave--a project that led to the death of one of the physicists. couldn't call back the one under way, he said, "because that would 749. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC demoralize the whole organization." The counterproductive results of the OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- 9/11 aftermath are likely to embellish that perspective. QAEDA, 2010, 176. The finished product could weigh a ton or more. 743. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC Encased in lead shielding to mask radioactive emissions, it would then have OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- to be transported to, and smuggled into, the relevant target country. QAEDA, 2010, 232. To the extent that we "portray the terrorist nuclear threat as the thing we fear most," notes Susan Martin, "we nurture the idea 750. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC that this is what terrorists must do if they want to be taken seriously." OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- QAEDA, 2010, 183. The previous chapter arrayed a lengthy set of obstacles 744. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC confronting the would-be atomic terrorist--often making use in the process OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- of Langewiesche's excellent reporting. Those who warn about the likelihood QAEDA, 2010, 233. Atomic terrorism may indeed be the single most of a terrorist bomb contend that a terrorist group could, if often with great serious threat to the national security of the United States. Assessed in an difficulty, surmount each obstacle--that doing so in each case is, in appropriate context, however, the likelihood that such a calamity will come Langewiesche's phrase, "not impossible." But it is vital to point out that, about seems breathtakingly small. Sensible, cost-effective policies designed while it may be "not impossible" to surmount each individual step, the to make that probability even lower may be justified, given the damage that likelihood that a group could surmount a series of them could quickly can be inflicted by an atomic explosion. But unjustified, obsessive alarmism approach impossibility. about the likelihood and imminence of atomic terrorism has had policy consequences that have been costly and unnecessary. Among them are the 751. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- war in Iraq and the focus on WMD that seduced federal agencies away from QAEDA, 2010, 184. If the odds are "stacked against" the terrorists, what are due preparation for disasters that have actually happened, such as Hurricane Katrina. they? Langewiesche's discussion, as well as other material, helps us evaluate the many ways such a quest--in his words, "an enormous undertaking full of risks"--could fail. The odds, indeed, are stacked against the terrorists, perhaps massively so. In fact, the likelihood a terrorist group will come up with an atomic bomb seems to be vanishingly small.
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752. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC 761. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING QAEDA, 2010, 185. As the Gilmore Commission, a special advisory panel PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, to the president and Congress, stresses, setting off a nuclear device capable 178. It is highly unlikely that hostile states would consciously choose to of producing mass destruction presents "Herculean challenges," requiring provide terrorist groups with nuclear weapons or the materials needed to that a whole series of steps be accomplished: obtaining enough fissile make them. Such a decision would mean transferring the most awesome material, designing a weapon "that will bring that mass together in a tiny military power the state had ever acquired to a group over which it had little fraction of a second," and figuring out some way to deliver the thing. And it control -- a particularly unlikely step for dictators or oligarchs obsessed emphasizes that these merely constitute "the minimum requirements:' If with controlling their states and maintaining power. If the terrorists actually each is not fully met, the result is not simply a less powerful weapon, but used the transferred capability against the United States or one of its allies, one that can't produce any significant nuclear yield at all or can't be the source of the weapon or material would most likely be traced back to delivered. the state that provided it, and the resulting retaliation would probably be overwhelming, almost certainly obliterating the government that decided on 753. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC such a transfer. OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- QAEDA, 2010, 206. Physicist and weapons expert David Albright has also 762. Michael Krepon, (Co-Founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, U. examined this evidence. He contends in one interview that "there is no Virginia), FOREIGN AFFAIRS, May/June 2009, 2. The Cold War is now indication that al-Qaeda's nuclear work has gone beyond theory," but in a history, but warnings of an impending nuclear catastrophe are still very report he more provocatively concludes that "if al-Qaeda had remained in much alive. Anxieties today stem not from the threat of a surprise Soviet Afghanistan, it would have likely acquired nuclear weapons eventually" and missile attack but from the fear of Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, and terrorist that "al-Qaeda was intensifying its long-term goal to acquire nuclear groups seeking to carry out catastrophic attacks against soft targets in the weapons and would have likely succeeded if it had remained powerful in United States. And yet, not a single death has occurred as a result of nuclear Afghanistan for several more years." terrorism. Since 9/11, there have been more than 36,000 terrorist attacks, resulting in approximately 57,000 fatalities and 99,000 casualties. 754. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- 763. Michael Krepon, (Co-Founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, U. QAEDA, 2010, 207. Albright concludes that, although their efforts in Virginia), FOREIGN AFFAIRS, May/June 2009, 2. A terrible, mass- making nuclear weapons were far less sophisticated than known state casualty attack using nuclear or biological weapons could occur at any time, programs, their determination to get nuclear weapons is "astounding." and much more can be done to keep the United States safe. As the attacks However, if al-Qaeda had any visions at all about obtaining an atomic bomb that have occurred have repeatedly demonstrated, terrorists do not need or device, these seem to have been at most a distant glint based on some weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to cause grievous harm; they can do very limited and preliminary probes. That they may have had dreams at all so using hijacked airplanes, fertilizer, automatic weapons, and grenades. is perhaps "astounding," given the rudimentary state of the group's science 764. Stephen Maurer, (Prof., Public Policy, U. Cal., Berkeley), WMD capacities, its limited resources, and its severe isolation. TERRORISM: SCIENCE AND POLICY CHOICES, 2009, 99. Designing 755. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC and making nuclear weapons is notoriously challenging even for nation- OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- states. All known methods require capital investments running into the QAEDA, 2010, 214. Although "it is likely that al-Qaeda central has billions of dollars, many years (often decades) of effort, and large, readily considered the option of using non-conventional weapons," concludes Anne detectable industrial signatures. This makes nuclear weapons the least likely Stenersen of the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment after an form of terrorist WMD. exhaustive study of available materials, there "is little evidence that such 765. Susan Martin, (Prof., War Studies, Kings College), DEBATING ideas ever developed into actual plans, or that they were given any kind of TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING priority at the expense of more traditional types of terrorist attacks." PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, 756. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC 189. In a world of more than two nuclear powers, no state has been able to OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- devise a strategy for the first use of nuclear weapons that serves its interests. QAEDA, 2010, 215. When examined, the evidence of al-Qaeda's desire to It may be possible that some terrorist group will succeed where states have go atomic and about its progress in accomplishing this exceedingly difficult failed, but luckily I think this prospect is unlikely. Nuclear weapons are task is remarkably skimpy, if not completely negligible. The scariest stuff-- useful for deterrence, and perhaps when possessed but not used for "getting a decade's worth of loose-nuke rumor and chatter and hype--seems to have a seat at the table." But it is not clear how the first use of nuclear weapons no substance whatever. can advance any substantive goals. 757. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC 766. Susan Martin, (Prof., War Studies, Kings College), DEBATING OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING QAEDA, 2010, 217. The evidence that al-Qaeda--the only terrorist group PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, that appears even to want to target the United States and perhaps the West 190. In view of the difficulties involved in terrorists' acquisition of a nuclear in general--ever had much in the way of an atomic weapons program is weapon, the paucity of motives for a nuclear attack, and the reasons why quite limited. Moreover, the notion that it ever seriously (or even not so such an attack would not be in the interests of a terrorist group, I judge the seriously) had a pressing desire to obtain such weapons is equally limited. probability of such an attack to be low. 758. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING 767. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, QAEDA, 2010, xiii. It is not all that clear that any terrorist groups really 168-169. The essential ingredients of nuclear weapons, highly enriched want the weapons or are remotely capable of obtaining them should the uranium and plutonium, do not occur in significant quantities in nature and desire to do so take hold of them. If they try, there are a host of practical are quite difficult to produce. Making them is well beyond the plausible and organizational difficulties that make their likelihood of success capabilities of terrorist groups. Thus if all of the existing stockpiles could be vanishingly small. effectively guarded, nuclear weapons terrorism could be reliably prevented: 768. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC no material, no bomb. OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- 759. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING QAEDA, 2010, 169-170. Although there may be disgruntled and underpaid TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING scientists in places like Russia, they would have to consider the costs of PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, detection. A. Q. Khan, the Pakistani nuclear scientist, was once a national 169. Getting and using a nuclear bomb would be the most technically hero for his lead work on his country's atomic bomb, but he was brought challenging operation any terrorist group has ever carried out. The down in 2004 for selling atomic secrets to other governments and was probability of nuclear terrorism is surely far lower than the probability of placed under severe house arrest for years. Renegade Russian scientists who many other types of terrorist attack. But the risk posed by nuclear terrorism happen not to be national heroes could expect a punishment that would be -- the probability multiplied by the immense consequences of such an attack considerably more unpleasant. -- is unacceptably high. Fortunately, practical and affordable actions can be 769. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC taken to drastically reduce the risk -- beginning with a fast-paced global OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- campaign to ensure that nuclear stockpiles everywhere are protected effectively from both insider and outsider attempts to steal them. QAEDA, 2010, 170. There is something decidedly worse than being a disgruntled Russian scientist, and that is being a dead disgruntled Russian 760. Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING scientist. Thus even one initially tempted by, seduced by, or sympathetic to TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING the blandishments of smooth-talking foreign terrorists might well soon PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, develop sobering second thoughts and go to the authorities. Insiders might 177. There is no convincing evidence that any terrorist group has yet also come to ruminate over the fact that, once the heist was accomplished, acquired a nuclear weapon or the materials needed to make one, or that al- the terrorists would, as Jenkins puts it none too delicately, "have every Qaeda has succeeded in pulling together the expertise needed to make a incentive to cover their trail, beginning with eliminating their confederates." bomb. Indeed, to the contrary, there is some evidence of confusion and lack He also points out that no case of a rogue Russian scientist working for of nuclear knowledge by some senior al-Qaeda operatives. terrorists or foreign states has ever been documented.
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770. John Mueller, (Prof., Political Science, Ohio State U.), ATOMIC 777. Barbara McCann, (Analyst, American Planning Association), OBSESSION: NUCLEAR ALARMISM FROM HIROSHIMA TO AL- COMPLETE STREETS: BEST POLICY AND IMPLEMENTATION QAEDA, 2010, 170. It is also relevant to note that over the years, known PRACTICES, 2010, 4. The obesity epidemic has highlighted the need for thefts of highly enriched uranium have totaled less than 16 pounds or so. people to include more physical activity as part of their daily lives. The This is far less than required for an atomic explosion; for a crude bomb, transportation infrastructure associated with complete streets—such as over 100 pounds are required to produce a likely yield of one kiloton. street connectivity, narrow street widths, sidewalks and bicycle lanes, street Despite huge concerns about the chaos that engulfed Russia in the 1990s, crossings, and street furniture—makes walking and bicycling more inviting. only minute amounts of weapons-grade material has been stolen as far as These features can contribute to improved community design—compact we know-1994 proved to be the peak, with declines thereafter. None of development, access to goods and services, and reduced traffic volumes and these thieves was connected to al-Qaeda, and, most strikingly, none had speeds—that fosters physical activity. These elements of the built buyers lined up--nearly all were caught while trying to peddle their wares. environment directly and indirectly affect physical activity, stress, air Indeed, concludes analyst Robin Frost, "there appears to be no true demand, pollution, traffic, access to food, and other risk factors for obesity and except where the buyers were government agents running a sting." chronic disease, mental illness, respiratory illness, injury, and death. Research has "consistently found that residents of walkable communities 771. Kristen Swanson, (Analyst, Alliance for Biking and Walking), BICYCLING AND WALKING IN THE UNITED STATES, 2012, 169. are associated with measurably higher physical fitness levels, lower likelihoods of obesity and traffic crash risk, and fewer harmful air pollutants Obesity, an underlying factor for several chronic diseases, has become per capita than residents of more automobile-oriented communities". epidemic in the United States, and, as such, is a central challenge for public health. Reversing this epidemic will require many actions, and among them 778. Craig Canine, (Staff), ON EARTH MAGAZINE, Feb. 27, 2009. is addressing the role of the built environment in contributing to obesity. To Retrieved Mar. 20, 2012 from http://www.onearth.org/print/982. Creating do this, local agencies are increasingly using health impact assessment pedestrian-friendly urban communities where cars are not a necessity (HIA) to evaluate the potential health effects of a project or policy. Clark eliminates even more vehicle miles traveled -- and the accompanying CO2 County Public Health (CCPH) is one example of a local agency that has emissions -- than high-speed trains do by themselves. People who live in used HIA to integrate health concerns, such as obesity, into public decisions "walkable" urban neighborhoods close to a variety of transportation options related to the built environment. reap a number of green benefits: they drive 20 percent to 40 percent less and emit 20 percent to 30 percent less CO2 than those who live in "drivable" 772. Kristen Swanson, (Analyst, Alliance for Biking and Walking), suburban areas. BICYCLING AND WALKING IN THE UNITED STATES, 2012, 168. According to data from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and 779. Michelle Ernst, (Analyst, Transportation for America), DANGEROUS Development, the United States has the highest obesity levels among BY DESIGN, 2011,28. The economic downturn has taught us that the most developed countries. A 2010 study by Pucher and Buehler show the United resilient local economies are those with lively downtowns and village States also ranks at the bottom for levels of bicycling and walking when centers – walkable places with a variety of shops, services and restaurants. compared to international peers. These international data further suggest a A recent survey by the National Association of Realtors found that most correlation between lower levels of bicycling and walking and higher levels Americans would like to live in walkable communities where shops, of obesity. restaurants and local business are within an easy walk from their homes, regardless of what type of neighborhood or house they live in. 773. Kristen Swanson, (Analyst, Alliance for Biking and Walking), BICYCLING AND WALKING IN THE UNITED STATES, 2012, 184. 780. Kristen Swanson, (Analyst, Alliance for Biking and Walking), According to a 2010 study sponsored by the Society of Actuaries, the total BICYCLING AND WALKING IN THE UNITED STATES, 2012, 115. economic cost of overweight and obese citizens in the Unites States and "Share the Road" is perhaps the most common slogan used in bicycle Canada was roughly $300 billion in 2009. This estimate includes medical education. Share the Road campaigns are widespread and can take many costs, disability, and excess mortality. A 2006 report by the National forms. Many states have Share the Road signs on roadways. Others have Governors Association found that obesity costs the average taxpayer $180 Share the Road bumper stickers. Some states have sophisticated campaigns per year regardless of their own health status. Studies show that promoting with public service announcements including ads on buses, billboards, physical activity is cost-effective and the value of health benefits can far radio, and television. The basic message is always the same, encouraging outweigh the costs. Further, if just one of every ten adults started a regular bicyclists and motorists to obey traffic laws and show respect to other road walking program, the United States could save $5.6 billion —the equivalent users. Thirty-eight states report having a Share the Road or similar public of paying the college tuition of 1,020,000 students. safety campaign. 774. Institute of Transportation Engineers, TRANSPORTATION 781. Kristen Swanson, (Analyst, Alliance for Biking and Walking), PLANNING HANDBOOK, 3rd Ed., 2009, 973. Physical inactivity also BICYCLING AND WALKING IN THE UNITED STATES, 2012, 198. contributes to other health risks. An estimated 32 to 35 percent of all deaths There is no doubt that bicycle and pedestrian advocacy is on the rise. When in the United States are attributed to coronary heart disease, colon cancer the Alliance for Biking & Walking was formed in 1996 as the North and diabetes. These deaths could be reduced if the population were more American coalition of grassroots bicycle and pedestrian advocacy physically active. Physical inactivity is estimated to account for about 2.4 organizations, there were just 12 member organizations. Today the Alliance percent of U.S. health care costs, or approximately $24 billion per year. includes over 185 organizations in 48 U.S. states, four Canadian provinces, Chronic diseases exacerbated by inactivity account for seven out of every and Mexico City. The number of bicycle and pedestrian advocacy 10 deaths in the United States and more than 60 percent of all medical organizations has steadily increased through the Alliance's comprehensive expenditures. Active transportation—that is, transportation requiring some organizational development efforts and in response to increasing traffic form of human physical power—is a simple way that physical activity can congestion, rising gas prices, safety risks, a growing obesity epidemic, and be included in people's daily lives. Approximately 25 percent of all trips in climate change. This upward trend in bicycle and pedestrian advocacy the United States are less than 1 mile in distance, but almost 75 percent of doesn't seem to be waning anytime soon. these trips are made by automobile. In many cases, these short auto trips could be replaced by an active mode such as walking or biking. 782. Ron Rhodes, (Prof., Dallas Theological Seminary), THE COMING OIL STORM, 2010, 37. Even in the best-case scenario — even if by some 775. Preston Schiller, (Prof., Urban Planning, Queen’s U.), AN strange fluke a forty-year supply of oil is left in the ground — the fact INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION, 2010, 89. remains that oil is a finite resource that is running out, and the United States Walking is difficult in most urban regions, and it is especially difficult and is increasingly dependent on hostile and potentially unstable nations to meet uncomfortable in automobile-dependent cities and urban regions. With the its needs. Moreover, we are presently spending billions of dollars on oil combined efforts of policy-makers, planners, engineers and concerned purchased from Middle Eastern countries who then use some of that same citizens, it can become a safer, easier and more attractive mode. All of the money to finance terrorism against us. exemplary cities have succeeded in improving pedestrian conditions in many parts of their communities. 776. Kristen Swanson, (Analyst, Alliance for Biking and Walking), BICYCLING AND WALKING IN THE UNITED STATES, 2012, 11. In 2009, 4,092 pedestrians and 630 bicyclists were killed in traffic. This is down significantly from 2005 when 4,892 pedestrians and 786 bicyclists were traffic fatality victims. While overall numbers of bicycle and pedestrian fatalities are declining, pedestrians and bicyclists are still at a disproportionate risk for being a victim of a traffic fatality. Although just 10.5% of trips in the U.S. are by foot and 1.0% are by bicycle, 11.7% of traffic fatalities are pedestrians and 1.8% are bicyclists. In major U.S. cities, 12.7% of trips are by foot and 1.1% are by bicycle,
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783. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power 792. Daniel Botkin, (Prof., Emeritus, Ecology, U. California at Santa Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, Barbara), POWERING THE FUTURE: A SCIENTISTS GUIDE TO 14-15. Saudi Arabia has maintained close control over any information ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, 2010, 189. Sugarcane is notorious the world about their oil production and reserves. However, in the June, 2008 issue of over for being one of the crops most destructive to soil and water, especially National Geographic there was an article titled, "Tapped Out" written by polluting water runoff with soil particles, nitrates, and phosphorus, causing Paul Roberts, the author of, The End of Oil. In this article he reported the many problems downstream. Farming sugarcane erodes soil at more than discovery made by Salad I. Al Hasseini, the head of exploration and five times the rate at which soil is being formed naturally in Brazil. It also production for the state-owned oil company, Saudi Aram-co in 2000. He takes huge amounts of water, especially to wash away soil that clings to the had been studying data from the 250 or so major oil fields that produced sugarcane. Washing each ton of sugarcane takes 1,900-9,500 gallons of most of the world's oil. He added in all the new fields that the oil companies water. Each acre of sugarcane also uses 59 pounds of nitrogen, 47 pounds of hoped to bring on line, and when he added the numbers he concluded that phosphorus, half a pound of insecticides, and 2.7 pounds of herbicides. the oil experts "were either misreading the global reserves and oil- production data or obfuscating it." Instead of steadily rising output each 793. Daniel Perlmutter, (Prof., Chemical Engineering, U. Penn.), THE year, Huseini showed output leveling off, starting as early as 2004. "Just as CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, 2011, 87. The major criticisms of this commitment to ethanol have been two-fold. The first is that the large- alarming, this production plateau would last 15 years at best, after which the scale use of corn to make fuel has caused the price of corn to rise output of conventional oil would begin a gradual but irreversible decline." dramatically, thereby hurting all consumers but especially the poor in other 784. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power parts of the world who depend on US food exports. The second complaint is Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, an outgrowth of the price rise, that it leads farmers throughout the world to 16. The issue of when the oil peak is reached is actually not the most convert grasslands and forests into crops. These land clearing practices important issue. The real problem is that oil is a finite resource and it will introduce significant amounts of greenhouse gases into the air, and the be depleted at some point. If the peak has actually occurred or if it occurs changes in landscape remove some of the very active sinks for CO2 that the within the next few years we will suffer a traumatic economic dislocation as world depends on each growing season. One estimate' is that the carbon energy prices rise to unbelievable levels as people and nations compete for emissions that result from the clearing of tropical forests in places like the oil that is available. As we have seen it only takes a few percent Brazil, Indonesia, and the Congo now accounts for 17% of all global difference between supply and demand to trigger large increases in price. emissions contributing to climate change. History has made this clear. 794. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF 785. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, WARMING HOAX, 2011, 159. Because US farmland is scarce and 16. Alternative energy systems cannot be developed fast enough to prevent expensive, each additional acre of corn used to produce ethanol is one less an economic dislocation from happening. It takes 30 to 40 years to develop that is available for other crops such as soybeans and wheat, which have a vast new energy source. Even if the peak is when the USGS predicts, we seen price increases of more than 240 percent since 2006. This, in turn, have to start right now to avoid the disaster! But the evidence that is produces a ripple effect that raises the costs of meat, milk, eggs, and other building in the fall of 2008 indicates we are already on the verge of an foods with international export consequences. Since US farmers provide economic catastrophe. The melt down of banking and financial institutions about 70 percent of all global corn exports, even small diversions for that occurred in September of 2008 and the stock market fall in October ethanol production have produced high inflation levels in America and food were only precursors of what would happen. riots abroad. 786. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power 795. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL 102. We now have the driving forces of the great economic impact of WARMING HOAX, 2011, 161. Still another problem with ethanol is that it depleting oil reserves and global warming that will bring on the start of the isn't very efficient as an energy source as compared with petroleum. For one fourth energy era. Both of these economic forces added to the financial thing, since its energy density is about one-third less than that of gasoline, collapse of 2008-2009 have the potential of sending the world into an more must be burned to produce the same amount of power. It is also more economic dislocation that could eclipse what happened in the great energy intensive to produce. On average, an oil company burns energy depression of the twentieth century. equivalent to about 1 gallon of oil to process 20 gallons of gasoline, while ethanol yields versus energy requirements are only slightly positive at 787. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power best)It takes burning almost a gallon of ethanol to produce 1 gallon of Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, ethanol 1. The United States is running a huge deficit. We are spending $700 billion on annual oil imports and at the same time borrowing enormous amounts 796. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF from China to support our economy. CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX, 2011, 160. Then there is the issue of emissions. Even 788. Alice Friedemann, (Journalist), RENEWABLE ENERGY: though ethanol fuel may produce marginally less CO, than does gasoline, it OPPOSING VIEWPOINTS, 2009, 159. There isn't enough biomass to replace 30% of our petroleum use. The potential biomass energy is nevertheless releases large quantities of nitrogen oxide (smog) that causes respiratory disease. This can add to an already large problem in many urban minuscule compared to the fossil fuel energy we consume every year. areas, such as Los Angeles and throughout the Northeast. 789. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE 797. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 179. It also seems highly likely that biofuels exacerbate the problem of deforestation. Perhaps ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 135. Without a doubt, the extensive diversion of a fifth of human-made greenhouse gas emissions come from the clearing of agricultural crops intended today for human or animal nourishment into biofuels would drastically raise the price of many basic foods for human forests. When a forest is destroyed, much of the carbon stored in its trees and soils becomes carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. beings. This would hit the poorest populations especially hard. Similarly, an increase in the cost of feedstock for animals would increase the cost of 798. William Tucker, (Journalist), NUCLEAR POWER, 2010, 38. In many of the meats and animal-based products (milk, cheese, eggs, leather, February [2008], Science published an article by a team headed by Joseph wool, etc.) to which we have become accustomed. Fargione of the Nature Conservancy showing that converting virgin land into ethanol cultivation multiplies carbon emissions by a factor of 93. "So 790. Daniel Botkin, (Prof., Emeritus, Ecology, U. California at Santa for the next 93 years, you're making climate change worse," said Fargione. Barbara), POWERING THE FUTURE: A SCIENTISTS GUIDE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, 2010, 181. According to David Pimentel, 799. Ian Sample, (Staff), THE GUARDIAN, Feb. 28, 2011, 10. There are one of the world's experts on the ecology of agriculture and on biofuels, if already three heavyweight groups that could be considered the official the total U.S. production of corn were used to produce biofuels rather than keepers of the world's climate data. Each publishes its own figures that feed food, the ethanol produced would provide only 5% of today's total oil into the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Nasa's Goddard consumption—2% of the total energy used—by the nation. Because corn Institute for Space Studies in New York City produces a rolling estimate of doesn't produce ethanol directly, as any home distiller can tell you, the corn the world's warming. A separate assessment comes from another US has to be fermented and distilled, which requires considerable energy. As agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa). The currently carried out, producing ethanol from corn takes 46% more energy third group is based in the UK and led by the Met Office. They all take than is contained in the resulting fuel. In other words, making fuel from readings from instruments around the world to come up with a rolling corn takes energy; it's not a source of energy. record of the Earth's mean surface temperature. The numbers differ because each group uses its own dataset and does its own analysis, but they show a 791. Andrew Morriss, (Prof., Business, U. Alabama), THE FALSE similar trend. Since pre-industrial times, all point to a warming of around PROMISE OF GREEN ENERGY, 2011, 11. Wallace concluded, "Not one 0.75C. mechanic I've spoken with said they would be comfortable with a 15% blend of ethanol in their personal car. However, most suggest that if the government moves the ethanol mandate to 15%, it will be the dawn of a new golden age for auto mechanics' income. In addition, ethanol's affinity for water makes it impossible to ship in existing pipelines or store with gasoline. Separate tanks and pipes must be built, raising costly, complex problems.
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800. James Lovelock, (Prof., Chemistry, Oxford U.), THE VANISHING 809. Paul Edwards, (Prof., Technology & Society Program, U. of FACE OF GAIA: A FINAL WARNING, 2010, 7. I have little confidence in Michigan), A VAST MACHINE: COMPUTER MODELS, CLIMATE the smooth, rising curve of temperature that modelers predict for the next DATA, AND THE POLITICS OF GLOBAL WARMING, 2010, 438-439. ninety years. The Earth's history and simple climate models based on the The rate of CO2 increase is rising: from about 1.5 ppm per year between notion of a live and responsive Earth suggest that sudden change and 1970 and 2000, recent measurements put the growth rate at over 2.1 ppm surprise are more likely. My pessimism is shared by other scientists and per year since 2004. It is now virtually certain that CO2 concentrations will openly by the distinguished climate scientist James Hansen, who finds as I reach 550 ppm (the doubling point) sometime in the middle of this century. do that the evidence now coming from the Earth, together with the By 2100, they could shoot as high as triple or even quadruple pre-industrial knowledge of its history, is gravely disturbing. levels, even under optimistic emissions scenarios. 801. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 810. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 2011, 47. As atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise, we can expect even 2011, 3-4. The most intense heat in Russia's 130 years of record-keeping higher temperatures in the future. The earth's average temperature has risen was taking a heavy economic toll. The loss of standing forests and the in each of the last four decades, with the increase in the last decade being projected cost of their restoration totaled some $300 billion. Thousands of the largest. As a general matter, temperature rise is projected to be greater in farmers faced bankruptcy. Russia's grain harvest shrank from nearly 100 the higher latitudes than in equatorial regions, greater over land than over million tons to scarcely 60 million tons as crops withered. Recently the the oceans, and greater in the interior of continents than in coastal regions. world's number three wheat exporter, Russia banned grain exports in a desperate move to rein in soaring domestic food prices. Between mid-June 802. Clive Hamilton, (Prof., Public Ethics, Center for Applied Philosophy, and mid-August, the world price of wheat climbed 60 percent. Prolonged Australian National U.), REQUIEM FOR A SPECIES: WHY WE RESIST THE TRUTH ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE, 2010, 2. The paleoclimate drought and the worst heat wave in Russian history were boosting food prices worldwide. record shows the Earth's climate often changing abruptly, flipping from one state to another, sometimes within a few years. It now seems almost certain 811. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, that, if it has not occurred already, within the next several years enough 2011, 11. On the social front, the most disturbing trend is spreading hunger. warming will be locked in to the system to set in train feedback processes For the last century's closing decades, the number of chronically hungry and that will overwhelm any attempts we make to cut back on our carbon malnourished people worldwide was shrinking, dropping to a low of 788 emissions. million by 1996. Then it began to rise — slowly at first, and then more rapidly — as the massive diversion of grain to produce fuel for cars doubled 803. Mark Hertsgaard, (Journalist), HOT: LIVING THROUGH THE the annual growth in grain consumption. In 2008, it passed 900 million. By NEXT FIFTY YEARS ON EARTH, 2011, 69. Unfortunately, there is 2009, there were more than a billion hungry and malnourished people. The ample precedent for this kind of abrupt shift into climate chaos. Although the human mind tends to think in gradual, linear terms, ice records and other U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization anticipated a decline in the number of hungry people in 2010, but the Russian heat wave and the subsequent historical data show that climate shifts, when they occur, tend to happen climb in grain prices may have ended that hope. suddenly and exponentially. 804. Daniel Perlmutter, (Prof., Chemical Engineering, U. Penn.), THE 812. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, 2011, 67. By 2009, two years 2011, 13-14. Food price stability now depends on a record or near-record world grain harvest every year. And climate change is not the only threat to after the most recent IPCC report, the worst-case IPCC projections were food security. Spreading water shortages are also a huge, and perhaps even being realized. The co-chair of the Copenhagen Climate Congress in March of 2009 told delegates that "emissions are soaring, projections of sea level more imminent, threat to food security and political stability. Water-based "food bubbles" that artificially inflate grain production by depleting aquifers rise are higher than expected, and climate impacts around the world are are starting to burst, and as they do, irrigation-based harvests are shrinking. appearing with increasing frequency." The first food bubble to burst is in Saudi Arabia, where the depletion of its 805. Paul Edwards, (Prof., Technology & Society Program, U. of fossil aquifer is virtually eliminating its 3million-ton wheat harvest. And Michigan), A VAST MACHINE: COMPUTER MODELS, CLIMATE there are at least another 17 countries with food bubbles based on DATA, AND THE POLITICS OF GLOBAL WARMING, 2010, 439. overpumping. Climateprediction.net has run thousands of "perturbed physics" simulations, varying model parameters to find the full range of possible climate futures 813. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 2011, 47. The effects of high temperatures on food security are scary. that models predict. From the results of these large ensembles, leaders of Agriculture as it exists today has evolved over 11,000 years of rather that project have concluded that the actual climate sensitivity might be considerably higher than IPCC estimates — perhaps greater than 6°C. And remarkable climate stability. As a result, world agriculture has evolved to maximize productivity within this climatic regime. With the earth's climate that's just for starters, since the planet will almost certainly overshoot CO2 changing, agriculture will increasingly be out of sync with the climate doubling. system that shaped it. When temperatures soar during the growing season, 806. William Stewart, (Attorney & Journalist), CLIMATE OF grain yields fall. Crop ecologists use a rule of thumb that for each 1-degree- UNCERTAINTY: A BALANCED LOOK AT GLOBAL WARMING Celsius rise in temperature above the optimum during the growing season, AND RENEWABLE ENERGY, 2010, 19. Another measurable impact of we can expect a 10-percent decline in grain yields. the Earth's warming climate is its rising seas. Ocean levels have risen about 8 inches (20 cm) in the last 130 years as a result of increased global 814. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 2011, 47. Among other things, temperature affects photosynthesis. In a temperatures, and the expansion of the seas is accelerating. study of local ecosystem sustainability, Mohan Wali and his colleagues at 807. Sid Maher, (Staff), THE AUSTRALIAN, Mar. 11, 2011, 1. “There is Ohio State University noted that as temperature rises, photosynthetic increasing discussion in the legitimate scientific literature of the possibility activity in plants increases until the temperature reaches 68 degrees that large damage will occur at smaller increases in global temperatures,” Fahrenheit. The rate of photosynthesis then plateaus until the temperature Professor Garnaut writes. He says the latest science shows “the statistically hits 95 degrees, whereupon it begins to decline. At 104 degrees, significant warming trend had been confirmed by observations over recent photosynthesis ceases entirely. years”. While global temperatures continue to rise around the midpoints of 815. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change range of projections, 2011, 47-48. The most vulnerable part of a plant's life cycle is the he says “the rate of sea-level rise has accelerated and is tracking above the range suggested by the IPCC”. Higher sea-level rises will “continue to pollination period. Of the world's three food staples — rice, wheat, and corn — corn is particularly vulnerable to heat stress. In order for corn to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding events during the reproduce, pollen must fall from the tassel to the strands of silk that emerge 21st century”. “Observations indicate that there has been a significant increase in the frequency of extreme high sea levels within Australia,” he from the end of each ear of corn. Each of these silk strands is attached to a kernel site on the cob. If the kernel is to develop, a grain of pollen must fall says. on the silk strand and then journey to the kernel site. When temperatures are 808. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power uncommonly high, the silk strands quickly dry out and turn brown, unable Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, to play their role in the fertilization process. 1. The economy is not our only problem. We face the issue of our depleting 816. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, the source of energy that sustains our modern world. This is compounded 2011, 48. The effects of temperature on rice pollination have been studied by the fact that it is the burning of our fossil fuel energy sources that have powered our civilization, are also in the process of polluting our atmosphere in detail in the Philippines. Scientists there report that the pollination of rice falls from 100 percent at 93 degrees Fahrenheit to nearly zero at 104 and causing global warming. This is leading to violent weather patterns and degrees Fahrenheit, leading to crop failure. hurricanes that are devastating our people. The arctic and Antarctic ice is melting away and the danger of rising sea levels threaten all the earth's low 817. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, lying lands and our sea ports. All glaciers on earth are receding and the 2011, 48. Heat waves clearly can decimate harvests. Other effects of higher water supply for 40% of the world's population is threatened. temperatures on our food supply are less obvious but no less serious.
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818. Rick Bass, (Journalist), THE HEART OF THE MONSTER: WHY 828. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST & NORTHERN ROCKIES MUST NOT 2011, 50-51. Ice melt from mountain glaciers in the Himalayas and on the BECOME AN EXXONMOBIL CONDUIT TO THE ALBERTA TAR Tibetan Plateau helps sustain the major rivers of Asia during the dry season, SANDS, 2010, 53. The coastline of Bangladesh is moving inland, when irrigation water needs are greatest. In the Indus, Ganges, Yellow, and threatening to make refugees of tens of millions of people. At least 1.3 Yangtze River basins, where irrigated agriculture depends heavily on the billion people are threatened by loss of the glaciers that, each summer, rivers, the loss of any dry-season flow is bad news for farmers. These provide all of the water for their crops. melting glaciers coupled with the depletion of aquifers present the most massive threat to food security the world has ever faced. China is the 819. Ralph Nansen, (Former Program Manager, Boeing Solar Power Satellite Program), ENERGY CRISIS: SOLUTION FROM SPACE, 2009, world's leading producer of wheat. India is number two. (The United States is number three.) With rice, China and India totally dominate the world 19-20. All the glaciers in the world are receding. The ice in the polar caps is harvest. melting. In September of 2008 a Manhattan-size ice shelf broke loose from Ellesmere Island in Canada's northern Arctic, another dramatic indication of 829. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, how warmer temperatures are changing the polar frontier. The vast amount 2011, 52. The depletion of glaciers in the early stage can expand river flows of ice that covers Greenland is melting at an increasing rate. If only the ice for a time, thus potentially increasing the water available for irrigation. Like in Greenland were to melt completely it would raise the water level in the the depletion of aquifers, the melting of glaciers can artificially inflate food oceans nearly 20 feet. This would flood low lying nations and destroy many production for a short period. At some point, however, as the glaciers shrink of the world's port cities. and the smaller ones disappear entirely, so does the water available for irrigation. 820. William Stewart, (Attorney & Journalist), CLIMATE OF UNCERTAINTY: A BALANCED LOOK AT GLOBAL WARMING 830. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, AND RENEWABLE ENERGY, 2010, 41-42. Over the last 130 years, sea 2011, 53. For the 53 million people living in Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador, the levels have risen about 8 inches (200 mm) as a result of increased loss of their mountain glaciers and dry-season river flow threatens their temperatures. On average, oceans rose .062 inches (1.6 mm) per year. While food security and political stability. Not only do farmers in the region that increase alone is not insignificant, the much greater concern is that the produce much of their wheat and potatoes with the river water from these rate of ocean expansion seems to be accelerating. disappearing glaciers, but well over half the region's electricity supply comes from hydroelectric sources. Currently, few countries are being 821. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 2011, 49. If ice disappears entirely in summer and is reduced in winter, the affected by melting mountain glaciers as much as these Andean societies. In many of the world's agricultural regions, snow is -the leading source of Arctic region will heat up even more, ensuring that the Greenland ice sheet irrigation and drinking water. In the southwestern United States, for will melt even faster. Recent studies indicate that a combination of melting ice sheets and glaciers, plus the thermal expansion of the ocean as it warms, instance, the Colorado River — the region's primary source of irrigation water — depends on snowfields in the Rockies for much of its flow. could raise sea level by up to 6 feet during this century, up from a 6-inch California, in addition to depending heavily on the Colorado, also relies on rise during the last century. snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada mountain range to supply irrigation water 822. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, to the Central Valley, the country's fruit and vegetable basket. 2011, 49. Even a 3-foot rise in sea level would sharply reduce the rice 831. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, harvest in Asia, home to over half of the world's people. It would inundate 2011, 54. Agriculture in the Central Asian countries of Afghanistan, half the riceland in Bangladesh, a country of 164 million people, and would submerge part of the Mekong Delta, a region that produces half of Viet Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan depends heavily on snowmelt from the Hindu Kush, Pamir, and Tien Shan Mountain Nam's rice. Viet Nam, second only to Thailand as a rice exporter, could lose ranges for irrigation water. And nearby Iran gets much of its water from the its exportable surplus of rice. This would leave the 20 or so countries that import rice from Viet Nam looking elsewhere. snowmelt in the 5,700-meter-high Alborz Mountains between Tehran and the Caspian Sea. The continuing loss of mountain glaciers and the reduced 823. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, runoff that comes from that loss could create unprecedented water shortages 2011, 49-50. In addition to the Gangetic Delta in Bangladesh and the and political instability in some of the world's more densely populated Mekong Delta in Viet Nam, numerous other rice-growing river deltas in countries. For China, a country already struggling to contain food price Asia would be submerged in varying degrees by a 3-foot rise in sea level. It inflation, there may well be spreading social unrest if food supplies tighten. is not intuitively obvious that ice melting on a large island in the far North Atlantic could shrink the rice harvest in Asia, a region that grows 90 percent 832. Clive Hamilton, (Prof., Public Ethics, Center for Applied Philosophy, of the world's rice. Australian National U.), REQUIEM FOR A SPECIES: WHY WE RESIST THE TRUTH ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE, 2010, 12. Most leading 824. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, climate scientists now believe that 2°C of warming would pose a substantial 2011, 75.If the Greenland ice sheet, which is well over a mile thick in risk both because of its direct impacts on climatically sensitive Earth places, were to melt completely, sea level would rise 23 feet. And if the systems and because of the potential to trigger irreversible changes in those West Antarctic ice sheet were to break up entirely, sea level would rise 16 systems. The latter include the disappearance of Arctic summer sea-ice and feet. Together, the melting of these two ice sheets, which scientists believe melting of much of the Greenland and West Antarctic icesheets. to be the most vulnerable, would raise sea level 39 feet. And this does not include thermal expansion as ocean water warms, an important contributor 833. Clive Hamilton, (Prof., Public Ethics, Center for Applied Philosophy, Australian National U.), REQUIEM FOR A SPECIES: WHY WE RESIST to sea level. THE TRUTH ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE, 2010, 9-10. Warming is 825. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, expected to cause more deforestation through droughts, fires and high 2011, 71. The flow of rising-sea refugees will come primarily from coastal temperatures inhibiting plant growth. A recent study concluded that a 4°C cities. Among those most immediately affected are London, New York, rise in the Earth's average temperature would kill off 85 per cent of the Washington, Miami, Shanghai, Kolkata (Calcutta), Cairo, and Tokyo. If the Amazon rainforest, and that even a 2°C rise, now seen as unavoidable, will rise in sea level cannot be checked, cities soon will have to start either see 20-40 per cent of it die off. planning for relocation or building barriers that will block the rising seas. 834. James Lovelock, (Prof., Chemistry, Oxford U.), THE VANISHING 826. Sid Maher, (Staff), THE AUSTRALIAN, Mar. 11, 2011, 1. Sea-level FACE OF GAIA: A FINAL WARNING, 2010, 84. The greatest harms rises caused by global warming may be worse than predicted and the world global heating causes are not the dramatic surprises of unprecedented may have to find deeper cuts to greenhouse gas emissions than currently weather events such as violent storms and floods of rainwater or almost targeted to manage the risks of climate change. Ross Garnaut, Julia Gillard's unbearable heat. Harm comes from prolonged and unremitting drought. climate change adviser, yesterday issued a gloomy review of the latest According to the forecasts many parts of the world will experience such a science on global warming, finding the “awful reality” is that previous lack of water by 2.030. Saharan conditions will extend into southern research may have underestimated the impact of increasing levels of carbon Europe, as they are experienced in Australia and Africa. dioxide in the atmosphere. “I would now be tempted to say that views that temperatures and damage from a specified level of emissions over time will 835. Brian Launder, (Prof., Aerospace Engineering, U. Manchester), GEO- be larger than is suggested by the mainstream science are much more likely ENGINEERING CLIMATE CHANGE: ENVIRONMENTAL NECESSITY OR PANDORA’S BOX?, 2010, xv. Today, the individually to be proven correct than those that embody the opposite expectations,” he neutral words 'global' and 'warming' combine to provide an epithet whose said. consequences, already causing misery and premature death for millions, 827. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, hold the prospect of unquantifiable change and potential disaster on a global 2011, 50. Americans need not go far from home to see massive glacier scale for the decades to come. melting. In 1910, when Glacier National Park in western Montana was created, it had some 150 glaciers. In recent decades, these glaciers have 836. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, been disappearing.• By the end of 2009, only 27 were left. In April 2010 2011, 6. Meanwhile, with our massive burning of fossil fuels, we are overloading the atmosphere with carbon dioxide (CO2), pushing the earth's park officials announced that 2 more had melted, leaving only 25. It appears temperature ever higher. This in turn generates more frequent and more to be only a matter of time until all the park's glaciers are gone. extreme climatic events, including crop-withering heat waves, more intense droughts, more severe floods, and more destructive storms.
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837. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 846. Stuart Kallen, (Journalist), HYDROGEN POWER, 2010, 23. Beyond 2011, 46. The pattern of more-intense heat waves, more-powerful storms, the world of fast, agile, luxury sedans, hydrogen is being used in the world and more-destructive flooding is consistent with what climate models of public transportation. Ford began building a fleet of 10-cylinder, project will happen as the earth's temperature rises. The worst heat wave in hydrogen internal combustion engine shuttle buses in 2006. Eight of them Russian history and the worst flooding in Pakistan's history are the kind of are currently in use at the Orlando International Airport in Florida. extreme events we can expect to see more of if we continue with business Commenting on the future of hydrogen combustion engines, Paul Scott, as usual. James Hansen, the U.S. government's leading climate scientist, chief scientist for a company that makes alternative fuel buses, states: "The asks, "Would these events have occurred if atmospheric carbon dioxide had hydrogen IC [internal combustion] is the closest thing you can get to zero remained at its pre-industrial level of 280 ppm [parts per million]?" The pollution in a combustion engine. . . . In mass production, we estimate [our answer, he says, is "almost certainly not." buses] will only cost about 20 percent more than a traditional transit coach. The hydrogen-IC engine is like having one foot set in the past and the other 838. Elizabeth Black, (Attorney, Environmental Practice & Litigation Department, Carter Ledyard & Milburn, LLP), GEORGETOWN foot in the future." INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL LAW REVIEW, 2010, 359. The 847. Stuart Kallen, (Journalist), HYDROGEN POWER, 2010, 49. In order possible weather-related effects of climate change include increased to reduce global warming and free the nation of its reliance on oil, Iceland frequency and intensity of droughts, severe storms, flooding, heat waves, has taken steps to create a carbon dioxide-free hydrogen economy. The and rising sea levels. In turn, the natural and weather-related consequences center of this experiment is the Shell Oil hydrogen refueling station opened of climate change are, likely to spur more serious social and economic in 2003 in the capital city of Reykjavik. The station produces hydrogen consequences, including food and water shortages, mass migration, and from water by electrolysis using electricity generated from geothermal conflicts over resources. In addition, there exists a geographic and temporal sources. From 2003 to 2008 the government used the station to power 3 disconnect between the causes and effects of climate change. experimental Daimler-Benz buses equipped with hydrogen fuel cells. In 2008 Hertz Car Rental began offering customers Toyota Priuses that were 839. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 2011, 3. The average July temperature in Moscow was a scarcely believable modified to run on hydrogen. The cars, which charge their batteries with internal combustion engines, burn hydrogen instead of gas. 14 degrees Fahrenheit above the norm. Twice during the heat wave, the Moscow temperature exceeded 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a level Muscovites 848. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN had never before experienced. Watching the heat wave play out over a AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND seven-week period on the TV evening news, with the thousands of fires and POWER, 2009, ix. Honda's FCX fuel cell car behaves like a gasoline the smoke everywhere, was like watching a horror film that had no end. powered vehicle except for the lack of engine noise. GM's HydroGen3 fuel Russia's 140 million people were in shock, traumatized by what was cell vehicle uses a Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cell, which is happening to them and their country. the most popular for use in autos. A PEM fuel cell gets its energy from the chemical reaction between the hydrogen stored onboard the vehicle and 840. Amory Lovins, (Physicist & CEO, Rocky Mountain Institute), oxygen from the air. RENEWABLE ENERGY: OPPOSING VIEWPOINTS, 2009, 116. The chairs of eight major oil and car companies have said the world is entering 849. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN the oil endgame and the start of the Hydrogen Era. Royal Dutch/Shell's AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND planning scenarios in 2001 envisaged a radical, China-led leapfrog to POWER, 2009, 20. Fuel cell cars must be able to drive hundreds of miles hydrogen (already underway): hydrogen would fuel a fourth of the vehicle on a single tank of hydrogen. Honda's prototype fuel cell car had a range of fleet in the industrialized countries by 2025, when world oil use, stagnant 190 miles in 2004. It stored a little more than 3 kilograms of hydrogen at meanwhile, would start to fall. 4,400 psi. This gave it a mile/kg efficiency of 51 city and 46 highway. The 2005 model had an improved fuel cell and was rated at 62 city and 51 841. Martin Wietschel, (Coordinator, Energy Economics Unit, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research), THE HYDROGEN highway. ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, 2009, 256. Today, 850. Jim Motavalli, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Dec. 6, 2011. Retrieved almost every car maker possesses its own prototypes and development Mar. 15, 2012 from http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/06/in-u-s- experience. Different car manufacturers follow different design concepts, hydrogen-cars-may-line-up-with-few-places-to-fill-up/. Hyundai, which with regard to drive train, hydrogen storage or market segment to be mounted a promotional cross-country drive of its Tucson FCEV in addressed. Most of the prototypes developed after 2000 were fuel-cell September, is another automaker that has expressed concern over the dearth vehicles rather than vehicles with internal combustion engines (an exception of filling stations. “From an industry standpoint, vehicle deployment has being, for example, BMW). The preferred storage option is for compressed been slowed due to a lack of infrastructure,” the company said in an e- gaseous hydrogen tanks, although liquid hydrogen storage can also be mailed statement. Hyundai also noted in the statement that it planned to found. build 1,500 hydrogen cars for the global market between 2012 and 2014, and could produce another 2,000 during that period. “These vehicles will be 842. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN active in both the United States and Europe,” Hyundai said. AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND POWER, 2009, 159. GM conducted its first fuel cell testing in 1964 and in 851. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN 1968 GM produced the auto industry's first operational fuel cell powered AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND vehicle. The first drivable fuel cell concept car was based on the GM Opel POWER, 2009, 6. After it has been separated, hydrogen is an unusually Zafira minivan in 1998. The HydroGen1 fuel cell vehicle based on the Opel clean-energy carrier and clean enough for the U.S. space shuttle program to Zafira compact van served as the pace car for the men's and women's use hydrogen-powered fuel cells to operate the shuttle's electrical systems marathons at the Summer Olympics in Sydney, Australia. while the by-product of drinking water is used by the crew. 843. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN 852. Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 329. POWER, 2009, 127. One of Ford's partners, Virginia-based Directed Hydrogen is actually a much more efficient fuel than either gasoline or Technologies directed Ford to build that cars that carry hydrogen gas, natural gas, so an economy based on hydrogen has the potential to be much eliminating the need for costly and bulky reformers. Along with onboard more productive than an economy based on oil—eventually. hydrogen storage, they also hold that the problems of building the hydrogen 853. David Jones, (Former Dir., Institute for Transportation Studies, infrastructure can be overcome. Stanford U.), MASS MOTORIZATION AND MASS TRANSIT, 2010, 844. David Jones, (Former Dir., Institute for Transportation Studies, 211. Looking to the future, there is an emerging consensus, though not a Stanford U.), MASS MOTORIZATION AND MASS TRANSIT, 2010, unanimous one, that fuel cell vehicles powered by hydrogen will emerge as 213. The present generation of research prototype fuel cell vehicles have the the technology best equipped to reduce the nation's oil import requirements power and pickup necessary for success in the marketplace, and four and U.S. dependence on oil from the volatile Middle East. As Joan Ogden automakers—GM, Daimler-Chrysler, Toyota, and Honda—have has emphasized, its benefits for the environment and for energy-supply demonstrated prototype vehicles with sufficient range (300 miles between security are primary reasons for considering hydrogen as a future hydrogen fill-ups) for commercial viability. automotive fuel. Depending on the feedstocks used to produce hydrogen and the cost of sequestering CO2 emissions associated with some hydrogen 845. Stuart Kallen, (Journalist), HYDROGEN POWER, 2010, 12. Ford production processes, fuel cell vehicles could also play a significant role in Motor Company has invested over $1 billion in FCVs. Its former chair, William Clay Ford, is convinced that Ford's new technology will help end reducing CO2 emissions. the dependence on oil, stating, "I believe fuel cells will finally end the 100- 854. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN year reign of the internal combustion engine." AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND POWER, 2009, 182. When a fuel cell consumes natural gas or other hydrocarbons, it produces some carbon dioxide, though much less than burned fuel. Advanced fuel cells using natural gas, for example, could potentially reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60% compared to a conventional coal plant and by 25% compared to modern natural gas plants.
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855. Martin Nicholson, (Science Journalist, M.A. in Engineering, 863. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN Cambridge U.), ENERGY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 77- AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND 78. Fuel cells generating electricity using pure hydrogen produce no POWER, 2009, 105. NASA has used large quantities of gaseous and liquid greenhouse gas emissions. For motor vehicles using hydrogen fuel cells, the hydrogen for many years, which required developing the necessary full well-to-wheel emissions depends on how the hydrogen was made. If the pipelines, storage tanks, barges and transport vehicles. As a result of this hydrogen was made from natural gas then the greenhouse gas emissions experience, NASA has concluded that hydrogen can be as safe or in some would be just over half those for conventional petrol vehicles. If the ways safer, than gasoline or conventional aviation fuels. hydrogen was produced using electrolysis then the well-to-wheel emissions 864. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE depend on how the electricity was generated. If the hydrogen was produced POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST using average emissions electricity (about 0.6 kg/kWh) then the well-to- wheel emissions would be greater than for conventional engines. If the CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 186. Is hydrogen dangerous? It can ignite at concentrations of 4%-74% in air, a wide range to be sure. But hydrogen was produced from electricity from solar or wind power then the because it is so light (one-fourteenth the density of air), it dissipates very well-to-wheel emissions would be very close to zero. quickly, losing any explosivity. 856. Stuart Kallen, (Journalist), HYDROGEN POWER, 2010, 48. Most climatologists agree that the only way to slow global warming is for 865. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND humanity drastically to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from 60 to 80 POWER, 2009, 2. Many relate hydrogen fuel use, which involves a percent of current levels. Because most CO2 is produced by burning fossil fuels, some believe the best way to lower emissions is to move toward a chemical change, with hydrogen weapons, which involves a thermonuclear reaction. Many people do not realize that most of the passengers and crew hydrogen economy within the next 50 years; however, the hydrogen would of the Hindenburg survived, and that extensive testing and utilization have to be produced using methods that do not add CO to the atmosphere. 2 evidence by NASA & BMW show hydrogen to be safer in many ways than 857. Aldo da Rosa, (Prof., Engineering, Stanford U.), FUNDAMENTALS gasoline and other petrocarbon fuels when accidents do occur. OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROCESSES, 2009, 418. Hydrogen's 866. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE reputation as a dangerous gas stems mostly from the spectacular 1937 EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC explosion of the Hindenburg in Lakehurst, New Jersey, when 36 people were killed. Yet, a good case can be made that the explosion actually COLLAPSE, 2011, 118-119. Since wind turbines occupy only 1 percent of the land covered by a wind farm, farmers and ranchers can continue to grow proved how safe the gas is. Indeed, the Hindenburg carried 200,000 cubic 12 grain and graze cattle on land devoted to wind farms. In effect, they double- meters of hydrogen, equivalent to 2.5 x 10 joules of energy. An energetically equivalent amount of gasoline would correspond to over 80 crop their land, simultaneously harvesting electricity and wheat, corn, or cattle. With no investment on their part, farmers and ranchers typically cubic meters, which could form a pool of fiery liquid covering the area of receive $3,000-10,000 a year in royal-ties for each wind turbine on their some 15 football fields. land. For thousands of ranchers in the U.S. Great Plains, wind royalties will 858. Joseph Natowitz, (Prof., Engineering, Texas A&M U.), OUR dwarf their net earnings from cattle sales. ENERGY FUTURE: RESOURCES, ALTERNATIVES, AND THE 867. Nicola Armaroli, (Sr. Research Scientist, Italian National Research ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 448. There is leaking, it will diffuse and escape Council), ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD: FROM THE OIL quickly due to the low mass of the molecules. While it takes little energy to induce an explosion in a mixture of hydrogen with a little air, hydrogen AGE TO A SUN-POWERED FUTURE, 2011, 241. Negative environmental consequences related to wind energy production are mixed with large amounts of air detonates with difficulty. essentially visual impact, noise, and fatalities of birds through collision with 859. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN the blades. The last is the major concern because visual intrusion is AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND subjective and noise in modern turbines is basically that of the wind POWER, 2009, 102. Hydrogen explosions can be powerful when they interacting with the rotor blades, which is quieter than other types of occur, but they are rare. Hydrogen must be in a confined space for an modern-day equipment. Even in quiet rural areas, the sound of the blowing explosion to occur. In the open it is difficult to cause a hydrogen explosion wind is often louder than that of the turbines. without using heavy blasting caps. 868. Nicola Armaroli, (Sr. Research Scientist, Italian National Research 860. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN Council), ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD: FROM THE OIL AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND AGE TO A SUN-POWERED FUTURE, 2011, 240. In the US wind POWER, 2009, 103. At Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, armor-piercing accounted for 39% of all new electrical capacity in 2009, up from less than incendiary and fragment simulator bullets have been fired into aluminum 2% in 2004. Nearly 10 GW of new wind turbines were installed in 2009 storage tanks containing both kerosene and liquid hydrogen. The test results thanks to the Recovery Act incentives, bringing the cumulative US value to indicated that the liquid hydrogen was safer than conventional aviation 35 GW, ahead of Germany (25.8 GW), which had been the world leader for kerosene. Other tests have involved simulated lightning strikes, with a 6- 15 years. million volt generator that fired electrical arcs into the liquid hydrogen containers. None of these tests caused the liquid hydrogen to explode. Fires 869. Nicola Armaroli, (Sr. Research Scientist, Italian National Research did occur from the simulated lightning strikes, but the fires were less severe Council), ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD: FROM THE OIL AGE TO A SUN-POWERED FUTURE, 2011, 241. It has been estimated even though the total heat content of the hydrogen was twice that of that wind turbines in the US currently kill about 10.000-40,000 birds kerosene. These tests indicated that liquid hydrogen would be safer than fossil fuels in combat where a fuel tank could be penetrated. annually. For comparison, 5-50 million birds are killed every year by the thousands of communication towers and hundreds of millions by collision 861. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN with windows and moving vehicles. AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND POWER, 2009, 103-104. In 1977, two fully loaded Boeing 747 commercial 870. Daniel Botkin, (Prof., Emeritus, Ecology, U. California at Santa aircraft crashed into each other on a foggy runway in the Canary Islands. Barbara), POWERING THE FUTURE: A SCIENTISTS GUIDE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, 2010, 124. According to the American Wind This accident was then the worst in aviation history and took 583 lives. An Energy Association, the windiest 20 states have wind energy to potentially inquiry concluded most of the deaths in the Canary Islands accident resulted from the aviation fuel fire that lasted for more than 10 hours. G. Daniel provide one-third to one-half of the U. S. total energy use, and two and one- half times as much energy as all of present electricity generated. Brewer, who was the hydrogen program manager for Lockheed, stated that if both aircraft had been using liquid hydrogen as fuel instead of kerosene, 871. Nicola Armaroli, (Sr. Research Scientist, Italian National Research hundreds of lives would have been saved. He listed several reasons. The Council), ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD: FROM THE OIL liquid hydrogen would not react with oxygen and burn until it first AGE TO A SUN-POWERED FUTURE, 2011, 239. Another challenge is vaporized into a gas. As it evaporated, it would dissipate quickly. This the matching of supply with consumption, taking into account that the would limit the fuel fed portion of the fire to only several minutes instead of availability of wind cannot follow the daily pattern of electricity demand. hours. The hydrogen fire would have been confined to a relatively small This problem can be solved with more widely dispersed wind facilities area as the liquid hydrogen vaporized and dispersed into the air, burning which belong to the same electric grid system but are placed in regions upward, instead of spreading like the aviation fuel. The heat radiated from which tend to be uncorrelated meteorologically. The escalation of wind the hydrogen fire would be far less than a hydrocarbon fire and only objects energy production is spontaneously creating these conditions, which will close to the flames would be affected. Hydrogen fires produce no smoke or limit the oscillating supply problem and make this technology an toxic fumes, which is often the cause of death in fires. increasingly attractive option also for base load generation in the near future. 862. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND 872. Nicola Armaroli, (Sr. Research Scientist, Italian National Research POWER, 2009, 104. On September 11, 2001, two fully loaded Boeing 767 Council), ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD: FROM THE OIL commercial aircraft were hijacked and flown into the World Trade Center AGE TO A SUN-POWERED FUTURE, 2011, 285. Wind power has an towers. Over 3,000 were killed as fires from the jet fuel caused the enormous potential, which is estimated to be about 75 TW. At the end of buildings to collapse. If hydrogen were used as the fuel, the damage would 2008 the global wind power reached 120 GW. In the US, it has been have been limited to the immediate crash sites, the buildings would estimated that to produce by a 70% efficient electrolytic process enough probably be still standing and many lives would have been spared. hydrogen (ca 40 million tons) to power 50% of the light-duty fleet based on fuel cell vehicles at twice the 2004 average efficiency would require 555 GW of wind.
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873. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN 883. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 30. By 2015, China TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 30. There's no may have 50 gigawatts of wind capacity, or about half today's global total. shortage of windy sites left to exploit. One study put the average power in In developing countries without a national electricity grid, wind power the global winds at any one moment as about 72 terawatts — around thirty combined with large batteries will often represent the cheapest reasonably times the world's electricity requirements, or ten thousand times the wind reliable way of generating power for small communities. power we currently generate. 874. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 884. Arjun Makhijani, (Pres., Institute for Energy and Environment 2011, 133. The proposed segments of what could eventually become a Research), NUCLEAR POWER, 2010, 45. The wind energy potential of national U.S. grid are beginning to fall into place. Texas is planning up to Midwestern and Rocky Mountain states is 2½ times the entire electricity 2,900 miles of new transmission lines to link the wind-rich regions of west production of the United States. Utah's neighbor, Wyoming, has almost as Texas and the Texas panhandle to consumption centers such as Dallas-Fort much wind energy potential as all 104 U.S. nuclear power plants combined. Worth and San Antonio. Two high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines will 885. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN link the rich wind resources of Wyoming and Montana to California's huge TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 42. As the total market. Other proposed lines will link wind in the northern Great Plains with the industrial Midwest. number of wind turbines increases, short-term variability actually becomes easier to handle. Typically, the turbines will be spread over a wider area — 875. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, perhaps the whole country — and when the wind is quiet in one place, it is 2011, 117-118. Instead, wind is the centerpiece of the Plan B energy likely to be blowing strongly in another. The total electricity output from a economy. It is abundant, low cost, and widely distributed; it scales up easily thousand turbines varies far less than the power generation from ten. and can be developed quickly. A 2009 survey of world wind resources 886. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN published by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences reports a wind- TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 31. Once the generating potential on land that is 40 times the current world consumption of electricity from all sources. infrastructure is contructed, wind energy is close to free — the cost of annual maintenance is usually a small percentage of the value of the 876. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, electricity generated. 2011, 118-119. Since wind turbines occupy only 1 percent of the land covered by a wind farm, farmers and ranchers can continue to grow grain 887. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN and graze cattle on land devoted to wind farms. In effect, they double-crop TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 32. Low and predictable running costs also help wind compare well with fossil fuels. their land, simultaneously harvesting electricity and wheat, corn, or cattle. Once the turbine is placed on top of its tower, virtually free electricity will With no investment on their part, farmers and ranchers typically receive $3,000-10,000 a year in royalties for each wind turbine on their land. For be generated for the next twenty-five years or so. thousands of ranchers in the U.S. Great Plains, wind royalties will dwarf 888. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN their net earnings from cattle sales. TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 32. Wind has an additional advantage, too. Because its fuel is free, the turbine owners will 877. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 2011, 118. The United States, with 35,000 megawatts of wind generating generally always be able to sell their electricity at a profit. By contrast, the main fuels for power stations — gas and coal — can swiftly vary in price in capacity, leads the world in harnessing wind, followed by China and relation to each other. Germany with 26,000 megawatts each. Texas, long the leading U.S. oil- producing state, is now also the nation's leading generator of electricity 889. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN from wind. It has 9,700 megawatts of wind generating capacity online, 370 TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 41. Year after year, megawatts more under construction, and a huge amount under development. wind turbines will produce approximately the same amount of electricity If all of the wind farms projected for 2025 are completed, Texas will have over a twelve-month period. We have good years and bad years for wind, 38,000 megawatts of wind generating capacity — the equivalent of 38 coal- but annual electricity output from a turbine will stay within well-understood fired power plants. This would satisfy roughly 90 percent of the current bounds. In that respect, wind turbines are at least as reliable as an old coal- residential electricity needs of the state's 25 million people. fired or nuclear station, where output can vary enormously because of maintenance needs or equipment failure. 878. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 2011, 121. At $3 million per installed turbine, the 2 million turbines would 890. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for mean spending $600 billion per year world-wide between now and 2020. Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE This compares with world oil and gas capital expenditures that are projected MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR to double from $800 billion in 2010 to $1.6 trillion in 2015. ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 162. Historically, photovoltaic cell costs have dropped almost 20 percent each time world production doubled. This is still 879. Erica Shroeder, (J.D., U. California, Berkeley School of Law), happening in spite of the recent silicon supply shortage. The production of CALIFORNIA LAW REVIEW, Oct. 2010, 1639. Once a wind project is built, it involves only minimal environmental impacts compared to polysilicon rose sharply in 2008, providing more than enough raw material to industry. Furthermore, overproduction of solar cells globally and the traditional electricity generation. Wind power emits negligible amounts of threat of subsidy reductions and market shrinkage during the economic traditional air pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide and particulate matter, as well as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Lower emissions of crisis have helped lower prices since their 2008 peak. traditional air pollutants means fewer air quality-related illnesses locally 891. Kimberly Keilbach, (Journalist), GLOBAL WARMING IS GOOD and regionally. Lower greenhouse gas emissions will help to combat FOR BUSINESS: HOW SAVVY ENTREPRENEURS, LARGE climate change, effects of which will be felt locally and around the world. CORPORATIONS AND OTHERS ARE MAKING MONEY WHILE SAVING THE PLANET, 2009, 95. Thin film solar cells are one of the 880. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, fastest growing alternatives to crystalline silicon solar cells, and, according 2011, 133-134. A strong, efficient national grid will reduce generating to the 2007 Solarbuzz World PV Industry report, "Thin film production capacity needs, lower consumer costs, and cut carbon emissions. Since no two wind farms have identical wind profiles, each one added to the grid more than doubled from 181 MW in 2006 to 400 MW in 2007, accounting for 12 percent of total PV production." makes wind a more stable source of electricity. With the prospect of thou- sands of wind farms spread from coast to coast and a national grid, wind 892. Kimberly Keilbach, (Journalist), GLOBAL WARMING IS GOOD becomes a stable source of energy, part of baseload power. FOR BUSINESS: HOW SAVVY ENTREPRENEURS, LARGE CORPORATIONS AND OTHERS ARE MAKING MONEY WHILE 881. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, SAVING THE PLANET, 2009, 95. UNI-SOLAR thin film amorphous 2011, 119. In considering the energy productivity of land, wind turbines are photovoltaics comes in flexible panels and in rolls of flexible PV laminate in a class by themselves. For example, an acre of land in northern Iowa planted in corn can yield $1,000 worth of ethanol per year. That same acre (PVL) that are easy to install and remove, require no roof penetrations, and can be used on everything from shade structures to curved metal roofs. Its used to site a wind turbine can produce $300,000 worth of electricity per peel-and-stick backing makes applications both easy and more cost- year. This helps explain why investors find wind farms so attractive. effective. Although the size and weights of various PVLs vary, none of the 882. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN laminates use glass, which means the PV system is both substantially lighter TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 41-42. Despite what and is "virtually unbreakable." anti-wind power campaigners sometimes claim, the people who run our electricity systems do not need to keep an equal amount of coal-fired power 893. Martin Nicholson, (Science Journalist, M.A. in Engineering, generation ticking just in case the wind suddenly drops. They need a small Cambridge U.), ENERGY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 58. The obvious upsides with solar energy are that there is a lot of it, it is reserve (perhaps 15 percent of the total wind-generating capacity) available renewable and it doesn't generate any waste or pollution while generating at short notice, but this is little more than they have now anyway. Any national electricity distribution system already has to have power stations electricity or heat. By using solar power, we can reduce our dependence on non-renewable fuels which will get more expensive as supplies dwindle ready to start generating electricity at very short notice in case a large power (unless we have to buy a generator). Once we have paid for the installation station suddenly fails. of the equipment, the fuel cost is zero and it can be used in remote locations away from the electricity grid. Over the life of the system (including manufacturing the collectors) it will generate far fewer greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuels.
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894. Daniel Botkin, (Prof., Emeritus, Ecology, U. California at Santa 902. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, Barbara), POWERING THE FUTURE: A SCIENTISTS GUIDE TO 2011, 123. With installations of solar PV climbing, with costs continuing to ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, 2010, 151. This means that all the energy fall, and with concerns about climate change escalating, cumulative PV used by the world's people in 1990 could have been provided by covering installations could reach 1.5 million megawatts (1,500 gigawatts) in 2020. just 0.1% of Earth's area (and just 5.5% of the United States) with Although this estimate may seem overly ambitious, it could in fact be photovoltaics that were just 10% efficient, and that the estimated energy conservative, because if most of the 1.5 billion people who lack electricity demand in the year 2050 could be met by the same photovoltaics covering today get it by 2020, it will likely be because they have installed home solar 0.16% of Earth's surface, or 8.8% of the United States. Indeed, the total systems. In many cases, it is cheaper to install solar cells for individual energy demand in the United States alone could be met if photovoltaics homes than it is to build a grid and a central power plant. occupied 1.7% of the land. In about 20 years of collecting solar energy in this way, we would have collected as much energy as is contained in all 903. Lester Brown, (Dir., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE EDGE, 2011, 122. Historically, photovoltaic installations were small-scale — known fossil-fuel reserves—and that's assuming a conservative efficiency mostly residential rooftop installations. Now that is changing as utility-scale of 10% in transferring solar energy to electrical output. PV projects are being launched in several countries. The United States, for 895. Lester Brown, (Pres., Earth Policy Institute), WORLD ON THE example, has under construction and development some 77 utility-scale EDGE: HOW TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC projects, adding up to 13,200 megawatts of generating capacity. COLLAPSE, 2011, 122. On the manufacturing front, the early leaders—the United States, Japan, and Germany—have been overtaken by China, which 904. Alastair Sweeney, (Dir., The Civics Channel, Canada), BLACK produces more than twice as many solar cells annually as Japan. Number BONANZA: ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS AND THE RACE TO SECURE NORTH AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE, 2010, 228-229. Kurzweil is three, Taiwan, is moving fast and may overtake Japan in 2010. World PV now working with Google co-founder, Larry Page, to make that a reality, production has roughly doubled every two years since 2001 and will likely approach 20,000 megawatts in 2010. and he thinks the tipping point is near — when solar energy will be more effective and less expensive than the alternatives. The ascending curve 896. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN suggests we will start to see real results in about 2015. "Even people who TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 67-68. Given the slow don't care about the environment will adopt it," he says, simply because it pace of progress in P V over the past half century, why should anyone be will be cheaper. "Solar energy has the added benefits that it's renewable, it's even this optimistic? First, nano-technology really does make a difference. friendly to the environment, and we have plenty of it. We have 10,000 times Now that companies can make specialized materials whose atoms are very more sunlight than we need to meet all of our energy needs." precisely arranged, we are seeing rapid advances in the ability to capture the energy of the photons hitting the panel. Second, the impact of the German 905. Patrick Moore, (Co-Founder of Greenpeace), NUCLEAR POWER, 2010, 13. Worldwide, nuclear energy is one of the safest industrial sectors. feed-in tariff has been to vastly increase the total number of panels being Here in North America, no one has been harmed in the entire history of made around the world. The effect on manufacturing costs, ignoring the temporarily very high price of silicon, has been dramatic. The world is civilian nuclear-power generation. Indeed, it's proven safer to work at a nuclear power plant than in the finance or real-estate sectors. currently only making a few gigawatts of P V panels each year, but we are doubling the accumulated manufacturing volumes every couple of years. 906. William Tucker, (Journalist), NUCLEAR POWER, 2010, 43. The cost reductions achieved so far from moving down the learning curve Terrestrial energy is the answer to all the unpleasant questions raised by give us good reason to believe that as volumes continue to increase, we will solar energy, which is why the nuclear industry in this country is poised for see continued very sharp declines in cost. a comeback. Safety elements have been vastly improved, revamped plants are making enormous amounts of money, and the nuclear industry is 897. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 55. The sunlight chafing to start new construction. Although nuclear power cannot directly replace oil, it could become the basis of an expanded electrical grid that hitting the earth's surface every day contains around seven thousand times would support vehicles running on either electricity or hydrogen. It could the energy in the fossil fuels that humanity consumes. end our energy odyssey. 898. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 55. Even with today's 907. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL technologies, solar collectors on less than 1 percent of the world's unused WARMING HOAX, 2011, 179. Nuclear power plants are environmentally land could comfortably match all fossil fuels in the energy they provide. benign and reliable. They occupy very little land area, produce only water 899. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN vapor emissions, and require no major transportation infrastructure. They TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 55-56. The potential is are extremely safe, presenting no explosion or radiation contamination huge, and solar technologies have many advantages. Not only are they risks, which tend to worry many people most. And in stark contrast to so- climate friendly, but they're also non-polluting and almost noiseless, and called renewable or sustainable options, as well as fossil-fuel sources, they require little maintenance. In addition, unlike biomass energy, they nuclear power expansion and longevity capacities are vast. make use of non-productive space — be it deserts or urban rooftops — and therefore don't put pressure on food production. 908. Alex Flint, (Sr. Vice President, Nuclear Energy Institute), NUCLEAR POWER, 2010, 29. Nuclear energy is the single largest source of non- 900. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN carbon emitting generation. It is a mature technology, operated at high TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 64-65. Other standards by an experienced industry that is committed to safety. It is the companies, including the secretive Nanosolar, funded in part by the only energy option available today that can provide large-scale electricity billionaire founders of Google, are concentrating on another semiconductor 24/7 at a competitive cost without emitting greenhouse gases. material, known as CIGS (copper indium gallium diselenide). Nanosolar's 909. Donald Dudziak, (Fellow, Los Alamos National Laboratory), backers are hoping that its revolutionary technology, which simply "prints" NUCLEAR POWER, 2010, 80. The Department of Energy (DOE) plans to the semiconductor material onto a flexible metallic backing layer, will prove to offer panels of such low cost that they will be wrapped around the spend $250 million to demonstrate and deploy technologies for recycling, along with advanced reactors that can burn the recycled spent fuel. DOE's exterior of millions of buildings across the world. As its name indicates, goal is to stimulate the use of nuclear power around the world, by assuring Nanosolar is using nanotechnology to precisely arrange the atoms on the printed semiconductor surface. Its frequent claims that this approach will an ample supply of nuclear fuel, while limiting the risk of weapons proliferation. eventually produce extremely cheap panels are convincing to many outsiders but treated with undisguised skepticism by other businesses in the 910. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE P V industry. After several years of R&D, the reclusive company finally POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST shipped its first commercial panels to a solar farm in Germany in the last CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 127. Nuclear power has returned as an days of 2007. In September 2009, it opened its first factory in Germany able alluring option due to its "clean" nature and a brand of attractive politics. A to continuously produce solar panels at a rate of one every few seconds. If decade ago, this would have sounded unhinged. But consider: the Nanosolar's most important boast — that it can print solar P V cells of one technology delivers reliable, affordable, baseload electricity on a massive hundredth the thickness of conventional silicon panels at speeds one scale with no greenhouse gas emissions, no air pollutants, and no import hundred times as fast as current manufacturing processes — is even partly dependence problems—no major contribution, that is, to global warming or true, the cost of P V is likely to fall extremely quickly as it ramps up its energy security worries. In fact, by substituting for fossil fuels in power production. generation, nuclear energy actually reduces our carbon output and our political vulnerabilities also. 901. Chris Goodall, (Chair, Dynmark International Limited), TEN TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE THE PLANET, 2010, 56. There are three 911. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for main ways to capture the sun's energy. The first is to put long tubes Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE containing liquids in direct sunlight. The liquid in the tubes gets hot and, MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR with a heat exchanger, can be used to heat water for showers or for washing ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 99-100. Today, proven reserves of uranium total clothes. The second way is to use panels of photovoltaic (P V) cells to turn about 2 million tonnes, enough to feed existing reactors for another fifty the photons of light directly into electricity. Finally, there are solar years at the current annual production rate of about 40,000 tonnes. concentrators, which use mirrors to focus large amounts of sunlight onto a However, as with oil, gas, and other natural resources, the definition of small area, intensively heating fluids and using their energy to drive a proven reserves can be deceiving. The proven reserves include only turbine or a Stirling engine to generate electricity. uranium that is economically extractable for less than $40 per kilogram.
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912. Vikram Janardhan, (CEO, Insera Energy, LLC), ENERGY 920. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen EXPLAINED, Vol. 1, 2011, 58. The world consumes about 30 billion College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, barrels of oil per year, and this thirst grows at about 2 percent a year. At this 2010, 85. There are around 600 known oil shale/sand deposits around the rate, there is at least enough oil to last most of this century according to the world. Together they are estimated to hold between 2.8 and 3.3 trillion IEA's estimate. barrels of oil. One of the world's largest deposits, however, is found in the Green River Formation in the US. The Green River alone, which covers 913. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN parts of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, is estimated to contain a staggering AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND 1.2-1.8 trillion barrels of oil — over half of the world's entire oil shale POWER, 2009, 35. It is generally agreed that worldwide petroleum supply will eventually reach its productive limit, peak, and begin a long term resource and, again, more oil than the world has used since drilling first began. While not all resources are recoverable, even a moderate estimate of decline. One of the alternatives is the Nation's untapped oil shale as a 800 billion barrels would be three times greater than Saudi Arabia's proven strategically located, long-term source of reliable, affordable, and secure oil. The extent of U.S. oil shale resources, which amounts to more than 2 oil reserves. trillion barrels, has been known for a century. 921. Jason Schwarz, (Strategist, Lone Peak Asset Management), OIL, 2010, 125. An offshore find by Brazilian state oil company Petro-bras in 914. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE partnership with BG Group and Repsol-YPF may be the world's biggest POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 121-122. There is the simple fact that le discovery in 30 years, the head of the National Petroleum Agency said. A deepwater exploration area could contain as much as 33 billion barrels of fin has been foretold by the peakists so many times before. It was supposed oil, an amount that would nearly triple Brazil's reserves and make the to have arrived in the late 1980s, then 1990s, then in the 2000s, now 2010- 20, and so on. The date of doom has rolled forward, as each wave of offshore bloc the world's third-largest known oil reserve. "This would lay to rest some of the peak oil pronouncements that we were out of oil, that we prediction breaks upon the shores of the present. An ability to employ new weren't going to find any more and that we have to change our way of life," and better data does not seem to help. In the early 2000s, peakists believed Saudi Arabia was near its limit of production and would soon roll over into said Roger Read, an energy analyst and managing director at New York- based investment bank Natixis Bleichroeder Inc. decline. Yet by 2009, Saudi Aramco had grown the country's capacity no less than 50%, from 7.5 Mbbls/d in 2002 to over 11 Mbbls/d. It is hard to 922. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF feel confidence in a method—and the outlook behind it—that have spoken CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL the language of absolute certainty ("This time for sure!") yet proven WARMING HOAX, 2011, 211. Just how big is that US oil shale reserve? routinely wrong. The sky remains above us. It's really, really big. Estimates range from an equivalent of 800 billion barrels of crude up to possibly 2 trillion barrels. The 800 billion estimate 915. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE equals about three times the amount of all Saudi Arabia's oil—in fact, more than Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Iraq, and Mexico oil reserves MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR combined. One trillion barrels of crude equals all the oil the world has used ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 205-206. Doomsayers notwithstanding, shortages will not end the golden age of fossil fuels any time soon. The apparent since it was first discovered in Titusville, Pennsylvania, in 1859. When developed, the Green River Formation would provide oil shale comparable shortage of crude oil in the first decade of this century, for example, was to the extent of the energy potential of Alberta's tar sands reserves. merely the result of meager investments in exploration and development during the 1980s and '90s. As I explained in the chapters on fossil fuels, not Together, the US and Canada would have the world's largest oil supply. only are their known resources still huge but they are also bound to increase 923. Alastair Sweeney, (Dir., The Civics Channel, Canada), BLACK over time in step with technological advances in exploration and recovery. BONANZA: ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS AND THE RACE TO SECURE The dire projections of "Peak Oil" theory are nothing more than a NORTH AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE, 2010, 18. Now, many people reformulation of the traditional Malthusian growth model. Long since attracted to the peak oil crusade are lowering their placards and going home. discredited as a predictor of population growth, Malthusianism extrapolates The apocalypse has been put off for at least another century. Energy the future on the assumption of a fixed and precisely measurable stock of economists have suddenly discovered that Hubbert's Peak is just a ragged resources. plateau — that scary-looking downward roller-coaster slope of Hubbert's bell curve has significantly flattened out. 916. Nicola Armaroli, (Sr. Research Scientist, Italian National Research Council), ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD: FROM THE OIL 924. Alastair Sweeney, (Dir., The Civics Channel, Canada), BLACK AGE TO A SUN-POWERED FUTURE, 2011, 52. In the US, the oil shale BONANZA: ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS AND THE RACE TO SECURE resources total 2 trillion barrels. As much as 750 billion barrels has a NORTH AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE, 2010, 5. Our way of life richness of 25 gal t-1 or greater and could be produced with adaptation of requires fossil fuel and we will need it for at least another half century, or existing technologies. An oil shale industry could be initiated shortly, with until we develop alternative sources for powering our lifestyle. The Sands an aggressive goal of 2 billion bpd by 2020. Ultimate capacity could reach are bountiful. They offer a stable and secure supply for North America that 10 billion bpd, a value comparable to the long-term prospects for Alberta's no other country in the world can match. After fifty years of tinkering and tar sands. innovation, operators can produce synthetic crude out of the Sands at a price that is getting comparable to conventional crude and less than offshore oil. 917. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE 925. Alastair Sweeney, (Dir., The Civics Channel, Canada), BLACK MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR BONANZA: ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS AND THE RACE TO SECURE ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 7. Total worldwide petroleum resources are NORTH AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE, 2010, 18. Even most oil known as original oil in place. The USGS calculates that they amount to analysts still maintain the strange fiction that the Athabasca Sands are about 8-9 trillion barrels, of which less than 1 trillion has been consumed. In second only to Saudi Arabia in recoverable oil reserves. This fiction persists addition to familiar petroleum, there are the so-called unconventional oils, in the face of growing evidence that the Athabasca Sands are far larger. A such as ultraheavy oils, tar sands, and shale oils, which the USGS estimates trillion barrels of synthetic crude is four times greater than Saudi Arabia's to total 8 trillion barrels, of which only 1.3 trillion barrels are deemed to be 250 billion-odd barrels of conventional oil, and the 175 billion barrels that recoverable. These numbers point to an important reality. Worldwide the International Energy Agency estimates for Canada as a whole. petroleum resources are enormous, and proven reserves are only a small fraction of the overall total. Furthermore, vast areas of the planet have yet to 926. U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS, be explored. AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS PROVED RESERVES, Nov. 3, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 30, 2011 from http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ 918. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen data_publications/crude_oil_natural_gas_reserves/cr.html. Proved reserves College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, of oil increased in each of the five largest crude oil and lease condensate 2010, 86. According to Growth in the Canadian Oil Sands: Finding a New areas (Texas, the Gulf of Mexico Federal Offshore, California, Alaska, and Balance, a report published in May 2009 by IHS CERA, technological North Dakota) in 2009. Texas had the largest proved reserves increase, 529 advances in extraction from Canadian oil sands have made Canada the million barrels (11 percent), nearly all in the Permian Basin. North Dakota world's second largest holder of recoverable oil reserves, after Saudi Arabia. reported the second largest increase, 481 million barrels (83 percent), The Canadian oil sands have long been recognized as an immense resource because of Bakken Formation development. containing between 170-200 billion barrels. With production doubling from 600,000 barrels a day in 2000 to 1.3 million barrels a day in 2009, Canada 927. U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS, has already become the number one foreign supplier of oil to the US. AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS PROVED RESERVES, Nov. 3, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 30, 2011 from http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ 919. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen data_publications/crude_oil_natural_gas_reserves/cr.html. Domestic proved College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, reserves1 of oil and natural gas increased significantly in 2009. U.S. natural 2010, 85-86. One estimate suggests that with current US demand at around gas proved reserves2 -estimated as "wet" gas which includes natural gas 20 million barrels of oil per day, if the Green River Formation were geared plant liquids-increased by 11 percent in 2009 to 284 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). to producing just a quarter of US demand the play would last around 400 This is their highest level since 1971. years. And the even better news for Americans is that more than 70 percent of the Formation lies on land already controlled by the federal government. But while the black gold of the Green River Formation dominates the oil shale landscape, even it, on the North American continent, is not the whole "good news" story.
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928. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE 939. Clifford Krauss, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, March 31, 2011, F1. POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST But a shift in the last couple of years has received little attention. Oil CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 80. Gas is also a potential feedstock for imports have edged lower and domestic output has increased, enough so transport fuels and a main source of hydrogen (currently used to make that the United States is no longer importing 60 percent of its oil, as it was ammonia for fertilizers), a possible fuel of tomorrow. Finally, natural gas is the last time oil prices were spiking four years ago. ''We're 80 percent itself a transport fuel that can power engines not only in cars and buses but energy-independent to begin with, so we're pretty far along,'' said Daniel also in medium- and even heavy-duty trucks. Environmentally, gas yields Yergin, the oil historian. ''Our oil imports are down to 50 percent, and there but a fraction of the pollutants and emissions of coal and oil, making it a has been a rebalancing of where we import oil from.'' Since 2007, the preferred source for generating electricity in much of the power-hungry United States has decreased its oil imports from nations of the Organization advanced world. of the Petroleum Exporting Countries by more than a million barrels a day (including 400,000 barrels less from Saudi Arabia and 300,000 less from 929. Michael Ball, (Ph.D., Researcher, Institute for Systems and Innovation Research), THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITIES AND Venezuela), while decreasing its imports from non-OPEC countries by half that much, according to the Energy Department. During the 1970s, synthetic CHALLENGES, 2009, 98. Various studies estimate the amount of gas fuel from oil sands was little more than an experiment. Now more than 20 hydrates below the ocean floor (marine gas hydrates) at a range of 100 to 107 Tm3 and on land (continental gas hydrates) at 10 to 105 Tm3; this would percent of United States oil imports come from Canada, and half of that from oil sands. be up to 50,000 times the world's known conventional gas reserves. 940. Clifford Krauss, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, March 31, 2011, F1. In 930. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE 2009, the United States produced more oil than the year before for the first POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 83. Gas is less polluting than oil or coal since 1985 because of the combined increase in production from deepwater Gulf of Mexico production and drilling in a giant shale field in North by a wide margin. It burns more completely, yields almost no sulfur dioxide Dakota. Domestic production again rose in 2010, by 3 percent, while or particulates, a mere fifth the nitrous oxides, and 30% less CO2 than oil and, as already noted, 50% less than coal. imports have fallen slowly but steadily since 2006. Edward Westlake, a Credit Suisse managing director for energy research, calculates that the 931. Vikram Janardhan, (CEO, Insera Energy, LLC), ENERGY United States will be producing an additional 2.4 million barrels of oil and EXPLAINED, Vol. 1, 2011, 109-110. Production from unconventional gas other liquid fuels by 2016, on top of the 8.6 million barrels a day produced sources has been on a tear in recent years. In 2007, unconventional gas in 2010, even with a natural decline in existing domestic oil fields. supplied 44 percent of U.S. production of natural gas and, according to the 941. PHILADELPHIA DAILY NEWS, April 4, 2011, 19. Ever since Energy Information Administration, by 2030 roughly half of our domestic technological developments allowed drillers to access the vast deposits of natural gas will come from unconventional sources. natural gas that lie in underground shale formations in the U.S. — with the 932. Bill Clinton, (Former President), BACK TO WORK: WHY WE second-largest in the world practically under our feet — fortune has smiled NEED SMART GOVERNMENT FOR A STRONG ECONOMY, 2011, on the natural gas industry. Just last week, President Obama singled out 157. As we develop other sources of clean power, we should use natural gas natural gas as a way to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. as a bridge fuel. It's the cleanest fossil fuel, more than 50 percent cleaner than coal in terms of greenhouse-gas emissions, 25 percent cleaner than oil 942. Rod Walton, (Staff), TULSA WORLD, March 23, 2011, E1. Natural gas advocates have pointed out that horizontal drilling in shale plays has when used in transportation, and only one-fourth as expensive. And new made natural gas more abundant than ever. U.S. net proved natural gas discoveries in the United States have given us a huge supply, enough for ninety years. reserves rose 11 percent to 28.8 trillion cubic feet last year, according to the federal Energy Information Administration. 933. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE 943. Ronald Bailey, (Analyst, Reason Foundation), NATURAL GAS POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST SUPPLIES COULD LAST 250 YEARS, Jan. 20, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 30, CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 88. It's evident to everyone that resources are abundant. Indeed, they are likely to be even more abundant 2011 from http://reason.com/blog/2011/01/20/what-energy-crisis-natural- gas. In its Annual Energy Outlook report for 2011, the U.S. Energy than currently thought—given the mentioned resources in unconventional Information Agency concluded that the United States possesses 2,552 gas, which remain unexplored in most of the globe. From any viewpoint, the world's "got gas." Those in the U.S. energy industry know this is a trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of potential natural gas resources. Natural gas from shale resources, considered uneconomical just a few years ago, accounts for stunning turnaround from a generation ago. 827 Tcf of this resource estimate, more than double the estimate published 934. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE last year. At the 2009 rate of U.S. consumption (about 22.8 Tcf per year), POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST 2,552 Tcf of natural gas is enough to supply approximately 110 years of CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 82. Gas is the least carbon-rich of all use. Now UPI is reporting that the International Energy Agency's analysis fossil fuels, but it is still a hydrocarbon, a source of greenhouse gases. It can finds that the world has enough natural gas to last 250 years: buy the world good time to develop noncarbon sources or carbon capture technology—for every power plant that burns gas instead of coal for an 944. Ronald Bailey, (Analyst, Reason Foundation), NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES COULD LAST 250 YEARS, Jan. 20, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 30, equivalent amount of electricity, carbon emissions are 60% lower. 2011 from http://reason.com/blog/2011/01/20/what-energy-crisis-natural- 935. Steve Hallett, (Prof., Botany, Purdue U.), LIFE WITHOUT OIL: gas. Global supplies of natural gas could last for another 130 years at WHY WE MUST SHIFT TO A NEW ENERGY FUTURE, 2011, 135. current consumption rates. That time frame could double with Natural gas is widely recognized as one of the cleanest sources of energy. It unconventional gas, the IEA said. releases roughly half the carbon dioxide per unit of energy than coal and much smaller amounts of other forms of pollution, especially particulates. 945. Ronald Bailey, (Analyst, Reason Foundation), NATURAL GAS Natural gas consumption has increased dramatically in the last decade or so SUPPLIES COULD LAST 250 YEARS, Jan. 20, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 30, 2011 from http://reason.com/blog/2011/01/20/what-energy-crisis-natural- with an increasing number of new power plants using this cleaner fuel. gas. Since burning natural gas releases about half the carbon dioxide that 936. Leonardo Maugeri, (Sr. Fellow, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for burning coal does, increasing its use could go a long way toward reducing Science & International Affairs), BEYOND THE AGE OF OIL: THE the greenhouse gas emissions that are thought to be warming the planet. In MYTHS, REALITIES, AND FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THEIR addition, natural gas could be substituted for oil as a transport fuel reducing ALTERNATIVES, 2010, 80. There are several advantages to using natural concerns about dependence on oil imports. However, abundant and cheap gas as a transportation fuel. It is cleaner than most alternative fuels. It is natural gas will undercut the rationales for investing in and deploying more also much safer than other fuels in the event of a spill, because natural gas expensive renewable energy technologies, e.g., solar and wind. is lighter than air and disperses quickly when released. 946. U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS, 937. Scott L. Montgomery, (Prof., Geology, U. Washington), THE AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS PROVED RESERVES, Nov. 3, 2010. POWERS THAT BE: GLOBAL ENERGY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST Retrieved Apr. 30, 2011 from http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ CENTURY AND BEYOND, 2010, 92-93. Natural gas is the most energy- data_publications/crude_oil_natural_gas_reserves/cr.html. Total U.S. efficient and least polluting of the fossil fuels. This, along with abundance proved reserves of wet natural gas rose by 28.8 trillion cubic feet from 2008 and versatility, gives it advantages that cannot be underestimated or to 2009, to 284 trillion cubic feet. That increase reflects the strongest net ignored. Over time, gas has become the friendlier face of fossil energy, proved reserve additions of wet natural gas in the United States in recent often invoked as an overpass to a new energy era. years. Wet natural gas proved reserves are now at the highest level since 1971. U.S. proved reserves of natural gas have increased in every year since 938. Vikram Janardhan, (CEO, Insera Energy, LLC), ENERGY 1999. EXPLAINED, Vol. 1, 2011, 111. As conventional sources of natural gas dwindle and we begin to shift away from more carbon-intensive fuels like 947. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF coal and oil, unconventional gas is likely to play an increasing role in our CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL energy future. The economics point toward further development of these WARMING HOAX, 2011, 5-6. If ordinary citizens don't receive or heed resources, especially if we put a price on carbon emissions as now seems scientific reports, many may legitimately question global warming likely. Add to that the fact that the U.S. has ample domestic supplies and assertions from direct experience. Take the year 2007, for example. North unconventional gas begins to look very attractive indeed. America had the most snow it's recorded in the past 50 years. A Boston storm in December dumped 10 inches of snow, more than the city typically receives in that entire month, and Madison, Wisconsin, had the highest seasonal snowfall since record keeping began.' Record cold temperatures were recorded in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, and Mexico.
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948. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF 957. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, WARMING HOAX, 2011, 6. Going back to 2007, Baghdad saw its first 2010, 109-110. In one email the CRU's director (and key IPCC author), Phil snowfall ever recorded, and China experienced its coldest winter in 100 Jones, writing to Michael Mann, discusses two scientific papers that deny years. Record cold temperatures were also recorded in Argentina, Chile, and the link between human activity and global warming. He wants them kept yes, even Greenland. The end of 2007 set a record for the largest Southern out of an upcoming IPCC report. "Kevin and I will keep them out somehow Hemisphere sea ice expanse since satellite altimeter monitoring began in — even if we have to re-define what the peer-review literature is!" The 1979, it was about 1 million square kilometers more than the previous 28- context of the discussions here is Michael Mann and CRU director Phil year average. In 2008, Durban, South Africa, had its coldest September Jones discussing putting pressure on the editors of academic journals who night in history, and parts of that country experienced an unusual late- might see fit to publish dissenting scientific opinion. Heaven forbid! Mann winter snow. A month earlier, New Zealand officials at Mount Ruapehu writes, "Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research reported the largest snow accumulation ever. community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal?" Jones responds, "I will be emailing the journal to tell them I'm having nothing 949. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF more to do with it until they rid themselves of this troublesome editor." CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX, 2011, 53. Based upon current solar data, the Russian 958. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory concludes that Earth has College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, passed its latest warming cycle, and staff there predict that a fairly cold 2010, 108-109. In November 2009, a climate "missile" struck when 1079 period will set in by 2012. Temperatures may drop much lower by 2041 and emails and 72 other documents from the University of East Anglia's Climate remain very cold for 50 to 60 years, or longer." Research Unit's (CRU) computers were released onto the Net. As usual the mainstream media was asleep, which was surprising since the contents 950. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF proved explosive, auguring a major climate science scandal. But the furor CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX, 2011, 53. Kenneth Tapping at Canada's National across the Internet could not be ignored. A scandal that writer Andrew Bolt rightly termed "Climategate," was not just any scandal, it amounted to the Research Council thinks we may be in for an even longer cold spell. He "greatest in modern science." What was particularly explosive was the predicts that the Sun's unusually quiet current 11-year cycle might signal the beginning of a new Maunder Minimum cold period, which occurs every insight it gave us into the science "mafia" running IPCC and in the AGW "show." Reading the emails is a chilling experience, especially when one couple of centuries and can last a century or more." realizes that some of the authors were also authors of the "definitive" UN 951. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF IPCC reports, and those who have persistently declared the science to be CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL "settled." WARMING HOAX, 2011, 53. Solar activity peaked at the end of the 959. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen 1990s, broke with a brief blip in 2002, and then slumped to almost none. College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, This coincides with observed cooling, since 1999, which may well be continuing. There were only six sunspots during the entire year of 2008, the 2010, 109. Quite a few emails were also taken up with the "embarrassment" caused by the Medieval Warming Period, one even suggesting "it would be lowest number in 95 years. Yet as recently as 2006, NASA predicted that nice to try to 'contain' the putative 'MWP.'" Here we have scientists actually the upcoming solar cycle would be "a biggie." discussing "dumping" a fact of history, one that embarrasses their theory. 952. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen Next, we have enlightening discussions about how best to squeeze College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, dissenting scientists out of the peer-review science process entirely. 2010, 106. Joseph D'Aleo, an acclaimed meteorologist, is executive director of Icecap (International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment 960. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF Project). In his article, "Facts About Global Climate Change That You CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX, 2011, 2-3. Public exposure of hacked e-mail files Won't Read in the Popular Press," he sums up, as succinctly as we have retrieved from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at Britain's University of seen anywhere, the key elements and real science. Temperatures have been cooling since 2002, even as carbon dioxide has continued to rise. East Anglia revealed scandalous communications among researchers who have fomented global warming hysteria. Their exchanges confirm long- 953. Roger Pielke, Jr., (Prof., Environmental Studies, U. Colorado), THE standing and broadly suspected manipulations of climate data. Included are CLIMATE FIX: WHAT SCIENTISTS AND POLITICIANS WON'T TELL conspiracies to falsify and withhold information, to suppress contrary YOU ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING, 2010, 192. What standards of findings in scholarly publications, and to exaggerate the existence and intellectual openness and honesty had the authors of the e-mails threats of man-made global warming. Many of these individuals have had compromised? For one thing, the scientists — who saw themselves as much major influence over summary report findings issued by the United Nations' as activists as researchers — expressed a desire to game the system of peer IPCC. This organization has been recognized as the world authority on such review in scientific publishing such that their opponents were denied a matters, and it shares a Nobel Prize with Al Gore for advancing climate chance to publish their work in scientific journals or have their work cited change awareness. in the reports of the IPCC while the scientists' allies had a much easier time. 961. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF 954. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, WARMING HOAX, 2011, 3. Among the more than three thousand 2010, 110. Implicit in the emails is a blatant conspiracy to avoid submitting purloined CRU documents is an e-mail from its director, Philip Jones, to any requests for data under the UK Freedom of Information Act. Worst regarding a way to fudge the data to hide evidence of temperature declines: of all, subsequent to the email debacle, the CRU turns out to have "I've just completed Mike's Nature [journal] trick of adding the real "inadvertently" dumped its raw climate data for the 1980s. So now we don't temperatures to each series for the past 20 years [i.e., from 1981 onward] even have the means to check their data — data that is alleged to prove a and from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline [emphasis miner "Mike in this consistent long-term rise in global temperatures during the twentieth instance, refers to climatologist Michael Mann, who created the now century. infamous "hockey stick" chart that has repeatedly appeared in IPCC reports, as well as in Al Gore promotions, to portray accelerated global warming 955. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen beginning with the Industrial Revolution—hence, caused by humans. College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, 2010, 111. Even a dyed-in-the-wool AGW [anthropocentric global 962. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF warming] alarmist like the UK's George Monbiot was forced to admit to CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL having been badly shaken by the CRU revelations. Monbiot says the WARMING HOAX, 2011, 3-4. Another e-mail to Michael Mann (which scientific data does now need "reanalyzing." He laments, "There's no use James Hansen at NASA was copied on), sent by Kevin Trenberth, head of pretending this isn't a major blow. There appears to be evidence here of the Climate Analysis Section of the US National Center for Atmospheric attempts to prevent scientific data from being released, and even to destroy Research, reflected exasperation concerning a lack of global warming material that was subject to a Freedom of Information request." evidence: "Well, I have my own article on where the heck is global warming. We are asking here in Boulder where we have broken records the 956. Roger Pielke, Jr., (Prof., Environmental Studies, U. Colorado), THE past two days for the coldest days on record. We had four inches of snow" CLIMATE FIX: WHAT SCIENTISTS AND POLITICIANS WON'T TELL He continued, "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at YOU ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING, 2010, x. In November 2009 someone stole or released more than a thousand e-mails from a server at the the moment, and it is a travesty that we can't . . . the data is surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate." University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom that showed private discussions among climate scientists going back more than a decade. Some of these discussions showed scientists in a rather poor light. Soon thereafter, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) faced criticism after an obvious error was identified in its 2007 report. It didn't help that its initial reaction was to stonewall and deny. A series of further revelations showed a series of errors in the report and breakdowns in its review process. Its chairman was accused of having conflicts of interest.
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963. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF 971. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, WARMING HOAX, 2011, 5. Two things are clear from the CRU emails: 2010, 139. The Arctic has indeed undergone some warming in some areas, (1) Perpetrators of climate science fraud have routinely conspired to especially Greenland, a warming that culminated in a summer temperature exaggerate temperature increases since the Industrial Revolution, and (2) high of 5°C in 2007. The gradual melt has opened up the prospect of these same perpetrators virtually ignored comparable and even warmer navigable seaways and a rush for the Arctic's energy-rich deepwater times that preceded this period, as well as prolonged temperature declines reserves. The reality is, however, warming periods are nothing new to the since this period, that contradict greenhouse theory and model predictions. Arctic. When the Vikings settled Greenland they grew crops in Other explanations that conform much more closely to observed temperatures higher than those of today. fluctuations have been dismissed or aggressively attacked. These practices have produced unsupportable alarmist statements trumpeted in the world 972. S. Fred Singer, (Emeritus Professor, Climate Science, U. Virginia), CLIMATE CHANGE RECONSIDERED, 2009, 11. Princeton’s Freeman press that continue to influence multitrillion-dollar US and international Dyson has written elsewhere, “I have studied the climate models and I policy decisions—decisions based upon a contrived crisis of hysteria . . . a climate of corruption. know what they can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the 964. Richard Lindzen, (Prof., Meteorology, MIT), WALL STREET atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the JOURNAL, Apr. 22, 2010. Retrieved Mar. 30, 2011 from clouds, the dust, the chemistry, and the biology of fields and farms and http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704448304575196802317 forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in.” 362416.html. In mid-November of 2009 there appeared a file on the Internet 973. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen containing thousands of emails and other documents from the Climatic College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in Great Britain. How this file got into the public domain is still uncertain, but the emails, whose 2010, 98. Today, we are in the bizarre position that we cannot predict with any degree of certainty weather patterns for next week, yet some authenticity is no longer in question, provided a view into the world of climatologists are trying to tell us that they can predict with certainty climate research that was revealing and even startling. In what has come to be known as "climategate," one could see unambiguous evidence of the climate patterns a hundred years from now. unethical suppression of information and opposing viewpoints, and even 974. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen data manipulation. The Climatic Research Unit is hardly an obscure College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, outpost; it supplies many of the authors for the United Nations' 2010, 107. Greenhouse models show the warming should be greatest at mid Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Moreover, the emails to high atmosphere levels in the tropics. But balloon and satellite showed ample collusion with other prominent researchers in the United observations show cooling there. The greenhouse signature or DNA does States and elsewhere. not match reality, and the greenhouse models thus must greatly overstate the warming — and in a court of law would have to be acquitted of any role 965. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen in global warming. College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, 2010, 139. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center's own 975. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen figures, world sea ice in April 2008 reached "unprecedented" levels for the College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, month of April. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) went on 2010, 109. Surely, for a scientist, facts are facts? Why hide facts? Then we to declare 2008 the coolest since 2000. Moreover, the WMO reports that the learn of the private doubts of another researcher: "The fact is that we can't fall in the global mean temperature since 1998 is not just affecting the polar account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we ice caps either, it is also affecting glaciers elsewhere. can't. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement in 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data is surely 966. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF wrong." It seems if the evidence does not fit the theory, the evidence must CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX, 2011, 65-66. Even though Greenland has been be changed or suppressed. experiencing a slight warming trend, satellite measurements show that the 976. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen ice cap is accumulating snow growth at a rate of about 2.1 inches per year. College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, Also consider that Greenland's temperatures over the past 2010, 107. Most of the warming in the climate models comes from the assumption that water vapor and precipitation increase as temperatures 967. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF warm, a strong positive feedback. Water vapor is a far more important CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL greenhouse gas than CO . However, that assumption has been shown in WARMING HOAX, 2011, 67. In February 2009, it was discovered that 2 scientists have been underestimating the regrowth of Arctic sea ice by an observations and peer-reviewed research to be wrong, and in fact water vapor and precipitation act as a negative feedback that reduces any small area larger than the state of California (twice as large as New Zealand). The greenhouse warming from carbon dioxide. errors are attributed to faulty sensors on the ice.23 And although the Arctic ice expanse was still slightly smaller in 2008 as compared with 1979, the 977. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF Antarctic expanse was larger. The University of Illinois Arctic Climate CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL Research Center posted an analysis in January 2009 concluding that global WARMING HOAX, 2011, 2. The big lie is that we are living in a known sea ice coverage in 2008 was nearly the same as satellites revealed in 1979. climate change crisis. Climate warming and cooling have occurred throughout the ages. Is the Earth warming right now? Probably not, but 968. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF what if it is? It might be cooling next year. The models that predict a crisis CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL are speculative at best, and two recent events have cast even more doubt on WARMING HOAX, 2011, 64. According to a recent study conducted by US and Dutch scientists that appeared in the journal Nature Geoscience, their accuracy. One relates to undisputable evidence that influential members of the climate science community have cooked the books to previous estimates of ice melt rate losses in Greenland and West Antarctica advance their theories and marginalize contrary findings. The other problem may have been exaggerated as double the actual rate. is evidence provided directly by Mother Nature herself that the global 969. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen climate appears to have entered a new cooling cycle. College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, 978. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF 2010, 108. Warmer ocean cycles are periods with diminished Arctic ice CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL cover. When the oceans were warm in the 1930s to the 1950s, Arctic ice diminished and Greenland warmed. The recent ocean warming, especially WARMING HOAX, 2011, 2. Cyclical, abrupt, and dramatic global and regional temperature fluctuations have occurred over millions of years, long in the 1980s to the early 2000s, is similar to what took place 70 years ago before humans invented agriculture, industries, automobiles, and carbon- and the Arctic ice has reacted much the same way, with diminished summer ice extent. trading schemes. Many natural factors are known to contribute to these changes, although even our most sophisticated climate models have failed 970. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen to predict the timing, scale (either up or down), impacts, or human College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, influences. While theories abound, there is no consensus, as claimed, that 2010, 138. For those for whom the UN IPCC is always the last word on all "science is settled" on any of those theories—much less is there consensus things climate, Dr. Madhav L. Khandekar, retired Environment Canada about the human influences upon or threat implications of climate change. scientist and an expert IPCC reviewer, says, "In the Southern Hemisphere, the land-sea mean temperature has slowly but, surely 'declined in the last 979. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF few years.'" He adds, "Several other locations in the Southern Hemisphere CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX, 2011, 24. Widely circulated statements that scientists have experienced lower temperatures in the last few years" the result of unanimously agree about global warming and human contributions to it or "surface temperatures over world oceans slowly declining since mid-1998." the importance and consequences of it are patently false. The apparent purpose of such claims is to discredit those with opposing viewpoints, deriding them with contempt previously reserved for those who deny the Holocaust, the dangers of tobacco, and the achievements of NASA's Apollo program.
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980. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF 988. S. Fred Singer, (Emeritus Professor, Climate Science, U. Virginia), CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE RECONSIDERED, 2009, 6. As the air’s CO2 WARMING HOAX, 2011, 25. In May 2007, a survey of 530 climate content continues to rise, plants will likely exhibit enhanced rates of scientists by the Heartland Institute revealed that only about one-half agreed photosynthesis and biomass production that will not be diminished by any that "climate change is mostly the result of anthropogenic causes and only global warming that might occur concurrently. In fact, if the ambient air one-third of those agreed that "climate models can accurately predict temperature rises, the growth-promoting effects of atmospheric CO2 conditions in the future." enrichment will likely also rise, becoming more and more robust. 981. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF 989. S. Fred Singer, (Emeritus Professor, Climate Science, U. Virginia), CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE RECONSIDERED, 2009, 7. The aerial fertilization WARMING HOAX, 2011, 26. In 2008, a US Senate minority report issued effect of the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 concentration (which greatly by Senator James Inhofe (R-OK) presents the testimony of 650 climate- enhances vegetative productivity) and its antitranspiration effect (which related scientists from around the world who strongly challenge global enhances plant wateruse efficiency and enables plants to grow in areas that warming crisis claims. They include a Nobel laureate and former IPCC were once too dry for them) are stimulating plant growth across the globe in study participants. places that previously were too dry or otherwise unfavorable for plant growth, leading to a significant greening of the Earth. 982. S. Fred Singer, (Prof., Emeritus, Climate Science, U. Virginia), NO PROOF MAN CAUSES GLOBAL WARMING, Dec. 28, 2010. Retrieved 990. S. Fred Singer, (Emeritus Professor, Climate Science, U. Virginia), Mar. 30, 2011 from http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article. CLIMATE CHANGE RECONSIDERED, 2009, 8. The historical increase asp?id=2952. A commonly cited “proof” for AGW claims there is a in the air’s CO2 content has improved human nutrition by raising crop “scientific consensus” — based mainly on a flawed study by University of yields during the past 150 years on the order of 70 percent for wheat, 28 California science historian Naomi Oreskes, published in the journal percent for cereals, 33 percent for fruits and melons, 62 percent for Science in December 2004. However, a 2003 poll by German researchers of legumes, 67 percent for root and tuber crops, and 51 percent for vegetables. 530 climatologists in 27 countries showed just 34.7 percent endorsing the 991. John Tabak, (Science Journalist), NATURAL GAS AND AGW hypothesis, while 20.5 percent rejected it — with the rest undecided. HYDROGEN, 2009, 168. Worldwide, roughly 55 million short tons (50 In a 2006 survey of 793 members by the National Registry of Environmental Professionals, 41 percent disagreed that recent warming million metric tons) of hydrogen are consumed each year. Measured in terms of its energy content, this rate of consumption is somewhat less than 2 “can be, in large part, attributed to human activity.” There are statements percent of all global energy consumption. The process by which this from scientific groups and professional societies on both sides of the issue. hydrogen is produced entails significant emissions: The production of 55 983. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen million short tons (50 million metric tons) of hydrogen releases about 350 College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, million short tons (320 million metric tons) of CO2 into the atmosphere. 2010, 96. Back in 2008, Dr Arthur Robinson of the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine (OISM) picked up exactly this point when speaking 992. Maximilian Fichtner, (Dir., Energy Storage Group, Institute of to a packed National Press Club in Washington DC. In his address he Nanotechnology Research Center), THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, 2009, 318. The data show that announced that more than 31,000 scientists had at that point signed the hydrogen has by far the lowest minimum ignition energy of the three energy Oregon Petition rejecting the IPCC line on man-made emissions and climate change. Acutely aware that claims of a "phoney list" would carriers. Moreover, the explosion or detonation range in mixtures with air exhibits the widest spread for hydrogen. Hence, the formation of hydrogen immediately be leveled, Dr. Robinson pointed out that the list had been and air mixtures has to be strictly avoided in uncontrolled environments, carefully vetted to confirm that over 9,000 of those who signed held PhDs. because there is a high risk of severe incidents, mostly because of the low 984. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen ignition energy and the wide detonation range. College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, 993. John Tabak, (Science Journalist), NATURAL GAS AND 2010, 96. In March 2008, over 500 individuals, including leading climate HYDROGEN, 2009, 138. A flame moving through a hydrogen-air mixture scientists, economists, policymakers, engineers, and other professionals, endorsed the Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change. Sponsored by travels much more rapidly than a flame moving through a natural gas—air mixture or a propane-air mixture. Therefore, in a confined volume, a climate scientists of the International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC), it hydrogen ignition is much more likely to become a hydrogen explosion than states: "There is no convincing evidence that CO2, emissions from modern industrial activity have in the past, are now, or will in the future cause it is for any of the other common gaseous fuels. catastrophic climate change." 994. Jeff Wise, (Staff, Popular Mechanics), RENEWABLE ENERGY: OPPOSING VIEWPOINTS, 2009, 111. At first glance, hydrogen would 985. Peter Glover & Michael Economides, (Journalist & Prof., Cullen seem an ideal substitute for these problematic fuels. Pound for pound, College of Engineering, U. Houston), ENERGY AND CLIMATE WARS, 2010, 97. In 2003, scientist and science writer Michael Crichton delivered hydrogen contains almost three times as much energy as natural gas, and when consumed its only emission is pure, plain water. But unlike oil and what ought to be the definitive intellectual blow against the whole notion of gas, hydrogen is not a fuel. It is a way of storing or transporting energy. "consensus science." In a speech delivered to the California Institute of Technology, Crichton said: "I regard consensus science as an extremely You have to make it before you can use it—generally by extracting hydrogen from fossil fuels, or by using electricity to split it from water. pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; 995. John Tabak, (Science Journalist), NATURAL GAS AND it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. HYDROGEN, 2009, 122. To see the problem of hydrogen production more Whenever you hear a consensus of scientists agree on something or other, clearly, consider the process of electrolysis, in which hydrogen gas is reach for your wallet, because you're being had. Let's be clear: the work of produced by passing an electric current through water in a process that is science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the demonstrated in many high school chemistry classes. In electrolysis, more business of politics." electrical energy is required to produce a given amount of hydrogen gas than is released when the resulting hydrogen is consumed as a fuel. As a 986. Larry Bell, (Prof., Space Architecture, U. Houston), CLIMATE OF consequence, it is not practical to produce hydrogen via electrolysis when CORRUPTION: POLITICS AND POWER BEHIND THE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX, 2011, 2. Among these hypotheses, man-made global hydrogen is used as a fuel to power the electrolysis process. warming caused by burning fossils has been trumpeted as an epic crisis. 996. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN CO2, a "greenhouse gas," has been identified as a primary culprit and AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND branded as an endangering "pollutant." This, despite the fact that throughout POWER, 2009, 29. In a high-pressure gas or cryogenic liquid hydrogen fuel Earth's history the increases in the atmospheric CO, level have tended to distribution the hydrogen is such a small molecule that it tends to leak follow, not lead, rising temperatures. It should also be understood that CO2 through the smallest of cracks. accounts for only 0.04 of 1 percent of the atmosphere, and about 97 percent 997. Stuart Kallen, (Journalist), HYDROGEN POWER, 2010, 11. Even if of that tiny trace amount comes from naturally occurring sources that enough hydrogen could be produced through nonpolluting methods, there humans haven't influenced. are technical problems concerning storage and transportation. As the 987. S. Fred Singer, (Emeritus Professor, Climate Science, U. Virginia), lightest gas in the universe, hydrogen floats off into space unless it is tightly CLIMATE CHANGE RECONSIDERED, 2009, 6. Atmospheric CO2 contained. While oil is easily stored in metal barrels or plastic containers, enrichment helps ameliorate the detrimental effects of several hydrogen must be compressed into tanks much like those that contain environmental stresses on plant growth and development, including high helium used to inflate balloons. soil salinity, high air temperature, low light intensity and low levels of soil 998. Martin Nicholson, (Science Journalist, M.A. in Engineering, fertility. Elevated levels of CO2 have additionally been demonstrated to Cambridge U.), ENERGY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT, 2009, 76. reduce the severity of low temperature stress, oxidative stress, and the stress of herbivory. In fact, the percentage growth enhancement produced by an Of course, to use hydrogen as an effective motor vehicle fuel requires some kind of hydrogen distribution infrastructure and hydrogen fuelling stations. increase in the air’s CO2 concentration is often even greater under stressful Several issues need to be addressed including hydrogen storage, refueling and resource-limited conditions than it is when growing conditions are ideal. time, vehicle driving range, cost and safety. Research programs are underway to address these issues.
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999. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN 1006. Steve H. Hanke, (Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND University) “In Praise of Private Infrastructure,” 2008. Retrieved Apr. 12, POWER, 2009, viii-ix. The resolution of technical and market issues will 2012 from http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/praise-private- determine when the transportation vehicle of the proposed hydrogen infrastructure). Once in place, the franchisee will have every incentive to economy, fuel cell automobiles arrive in commercial quantities. The high aggressively control costs, adopt new technologies, etc., since every dollar cost of the precious metal ingredients in fuel cells is one of these issues. of cost saved is an extra dollar of profit earned. If the firm's managers are Lowering the platinum content includes methods to raise the activity of the not attentive to cost control, the firms' profits will fall, share prices will catalyst as well as finding a stable catalyst that does not degrade. Avoiding decline, and the firm will become a ripe target for takeover by owners side reactions that contaminate the membrane is another concern. seeking to reap the gains which would result from turning out (or better motivating) the inefficient management. 1000. Michael Hordeski, (Engineer, Formerly with NASA), HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS: ADVANCES IN TRANSPORTATION AND 1007. Chris Edwards (director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) POWER, 2009, 123. Shell Hydrogen is planning for the first use of fuel cell “Federal Infrastructure Investment,” Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, cars in 2010 with a surge between 2015 and 2025 but technical and market 2012 from http://www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/ challenges could delay any commercial success of the fuel cell car. Car federal-infrastructure-investment. There are other advantages of manufacturers must raise onboard hydrogen storage capacity, cut the price infrastructure PPP and privatization. One advantage is the greater efficiency of fuel cell drive trains and increase the power plants' operating lifetimes. of construction. Extensive British experience shows that PPP projects are Hydrogen fueling must be in enough stations to allow drivers to enjoy a more likely to be completed on time than traditional government projects.34 range comparable to diesel fuel. Another advantage is the greater efficiency of operations. Private firms have incentives to reduce excessive operational costs, as illustrated by the labor cost savings from the leasing of the Chicago Skyway.35 Finally, private operators of infrastructure such as toll roads are more likely to charge efficient market rates to users, as illustrated by the leasing of the Indiana 1000. Chris Edwards, (director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) “PPPs Toll Road.36 and Privatization for Infrastructure,”Nov. 17, 2011 Retrieved Apr 13, 2012 at http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/ppps-and-privatization- for-infrastructure/. 1008. Chris Edwards (director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) Here are some of the points I raised: Private sector infrastructure spending “Federal Infrastructure Investment,” Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, in the United States is more than four times larger than federal, state, and 2012 from www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/ federal- local government infrastructure spending. Thus, if Congress wants infrastructure-investment. Mr. Chairman and members of the committee, infrastructure, it should remove barriers to private investment. thank you for inviting me to testify today. My comments will examine the federal role in the nation's infrastructure. In the description of today's 1001. Lisa Schweitzer (associate professor in the School of Policy, Planning hearing, the committee asked how infrastructure helps to promote growth, and Development at USC) Los Angeles Times. July 13, 2011. Retrieved jobs, and manufacturing. The short answer is that we can spur growth by Apr. 13, 2012 at http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/13/opinion/la-oe- schweitzer-infrastructure-20110713. Greece is having a fire sale of its ensuring that America's infrastructure investment is as efficient as possible. Infrastructure funding should be allocated to the highest-value projects, and publicly-owned transportation system, with planes, trains and roads all those projects should be constructed and maintained in the most cost- being sold off as the country attempts to dig out of its debt crisis. Americans should watch and learn: We could well be privatizing large segments of our effective manner. My testimony will discuss why reducing the federal role in infrastructure will help to increase the efficiency of our investment. own transportation system soon because of the U.S. debt crisis. 1009. Steve H. Hanke, (Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins 1002. Lisa Schweitzer (associate professor in the School of Policy, Planning University) “In Praise of Private Infrastructure,” 2008. Retrieved Apr. 12, and Development at USC) Los Angeles Times. July 13, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 at http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/13/opinion/la-oe- 2012 from http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/praise-private- infrastructure). An economy depends on infrastructure to facilitate the flow schweitzer-infrastructure-20110713. Last week, Rep. John L. Mica (R- of goods, people, information and energy. Accordingly, ports, roads, Fla.,), chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, introduced a bill that would slash transportation spending, limiting it to the bridges, railways, airports, communication networks, power lines, waterworks and many other infrastructure systems represent important amount brought in by federal gas tax revenues and other existing highway inputs into an economy. Poor infrastructure - either in terms of its quantity fees. That roughly translates into federal spending of $215 billion to $230 billion over six years for highway and transit projects — about half of what or quality - not only increases costs but can literally bring an economy to its knees. India and many other Asian nations have been severely handicapped the Obama administration sought last year. by poor infrastructure. 1003. Chris Edwards (director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) “Federal Infrastructure Investment,” Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, 1010. Chris Edwards (director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) 2012 from http://www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/ “Federal Infrastructure Investment,” Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, 2012 from www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/ federal- federal-infrastructure-investment. One option for the states is to move more infrastructure-investment. PPPs differ from traditional government projects of their infrastructure financing to the private sector through the use of public-private partnerships (PPP) and privatization. The OECD has issued a by shifting activities such as financing, maintenance, management, and project risks to the private sector. There are different types of PPP projects, new report that takes a favorable view on the global trend towards each fitting somewhere between traditional government contracting and full infrastructure PPPs, and notes the "widespread recognition" of "the need for greater recourse to private sector finance" in infrastructure.17 The value of privatization. In my view, full privatization is the preferred reform option for infrastructure that can be supported by user fees and other revenue PPP infrastructure projects has soared over the past 15 years in major sources in the marketplace. industrial countries.18 1004.Tad DeHaven, “Obama and Infrastructure,” October 11, 2010. 1011. Heather Stewart, 2008 (staff writer, The Observer. January 6, 2008. Retrieved Apr 13, 2012 at http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/obama-and- Online. Lexis. Accessed May 10, 2008). China's extraordinary transformation into a major world trading power has so far been achieved infrastructure/. As my colleagues Chris Edwards and Peter Van Doren have with remarkably little political friction; but Beijing has already come under explained, the main problem with government infrastructure spending is the lack of efficiency: More roads and transit capacity may or may not make severe pressure to revalue its currency, both from the U.S. and Europe. As a slowdown looms, blaming China is likely to become increasingly attractive sense depending on whether the benefits exceed the costs. One sure way to and some analysts fear discomfort at its success could even explode into a find out is to have private provision and user charges. If users are not willing to pay the costs of extra or newer capacity, then calls for taxpayer full-blown trade war. involvement probably imply subsidy of some at the expense of others rather 1012. Jason Goldberg, 2007 (staff writer, University Wire, March 8, 2007. than efficiency. Online. Lexis. Accessed May 10, 2008). Yet Smith's ideas on international trade were not fully embraced until after World War II. Many countries, in a 1005. Chris Edwards (director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) “Federal Infrastructure Investment,” Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, panic response to the Great Depression, slapped trade restrictions in place hoping to sustain their domestic industries. Instead of fixing things, this 2012 from http://www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/ prescription sent the world into an economic nose dive and helped create federal-infrastructure-investment. There are many advantages of infrastructure PPP and privatization. One advantage is that we are more another world war. If only we had listened to the 19th century French scholar Frederic Bastiat, who said, "When goods cannot cross borders, likely to get funding allocated to high-return investments when private- armies will." sector profits are on the line. Of course, businesses can make investment mistakes just as governments do. But unlike governments, businesses have a systematic way of choosing investments to maximize the net returns. And when investment returns are maximized, it stimulates the largest gains to the broader economy.
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1013. Jena Baker McNeill, (Policy Analyst @ Heritage Foundation) 1019. Jena Baker McNeill, (Policy Analyst @ Heritage Foundation) “Building Infrastructure Resiliency: Private Sector Investment in Homeland “Building Infrastructure Resiliency: Private Sector Investment in Homeland Security,” September 23, 2008. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 at Security,” September 23, 2008. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 at http://www.heritage.org/research/reports /2008/09/building- infrastructure- http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/09/building- infrastructure- resiliency-private-sector-investment-in-homeland-security. America's resiliency-private-sector-investment-in-homeland-security. Environmental infrastructure is in need of repair. Contributing to this problem is that issues, much like homeland security, have been highly regulated and over- Americans are focused solely on protecting the country's infrastructure from federalized from the beginning. While the system continues to lack terrorist attack. The greatest danger facing these structures, however, is not significant progress on a number of environmental goals, the notion that the terrorism. The danger lies in the fact that the United States infrastructure federal government is the best means by which to tackle environmental system lacks resiliency -- the ability to keep the country running even after issues persists. The Endangered Species Act (ESA) of 1973, which attempts a disaster has struck. Rather than spending vast sums of money protecting to preserve endangered species through classifications and federal deteriorating infrastructure from terrorists, we must incorporate resiliency in protections, has led to the perverse effect of encouraging pre-emptive order to keep the nation safe, free, and prosperous in the face of any threat, habitat destruction by landowners of their own land.[15] If an endangered natural or man-made. Resiliency is not a federal task. The answer lies in the species is discovered on a landowner's property, the ESA can cause free market principles that made our nation great. Congress and the new tremendous financial loss because the landowner will be required to Administration must promote policies that encourage private-sector preserve the habitat, regardless of his intended economic use of the land. investment in American infrastructure. The landowner then has the perverse incentive to destroy the animal habitat so that the endangered species will not enter his or her land, but will find a 1014. Jena Baker McNeill, (Policy Analyst @ Heritage Foundation) habitat elsewhere. Similarly, the private-sector owners of infrastructure “Building Infrastructure Resiliency: Private Sector Investment in Homeland have largely ignored maintenance because there is a larger financial Security,” September 23, 2008. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 at http://www.heritage.org/research/reports /2008/09/building- infrastructure- disincentive associated with maintaining adequacy than with protection. resiliency-private-sector-investment-in-homeland-security. Absent the 1020. Jena Baker McNeill, (Policy Analyst @ Heritage Foundation) entrepreneurial energy of the private sector, the deficiency of infrastructure “Building Infrastructure Resiliency: Private Sector Investment in Homeland will continue to plague the path to resiliency. Security,” September 23, 2008. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 at http://www.heritage.org/research/reports /2008/09/building- infrastructure- 1015. Jena Baker McNeill, (Policy Analyst @ Heritage Foundation) resiliency-private-sector-investment-in-homeland-security. The free market “Building Infrastructure Resiliency: Private Sector Investment in Homeland approach recognizes that the private sector naturally responds to property Security,” September 23, 2008. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 at http://www.heritage.org/research/reports /2008/09/building- infrastructure- rights. Property rights enable environmental or infrastructure actors to achieve gains in the market.[16] One of many examples of this property resiliency-private-sector-investment-in-homeland-security. The rights incentive can be found in a recent decision by Wal-Mart to move infrastructure of the 21st century requires a 21st-century approach. America must expand beyond the protection-based mindset and shift to resiliency. toward using solar power in all of its stores.[17] Wal-Mart's property rights drive it to create economic gains, which can be achieved through increased Without resiliency, America's infrastructure will continue to crumble and efficiency. The store chain recognized -- without government intervention -- any catastrophic event will be all the more devastating. Investment by the private sector preserves American notions of limited government, while that a shift toward solar power can be simultaneously economically advantageous (decreased electricity bills) and environmentally beneficial. preserving American livelihoods for future generations. 1021. Chris Edwards (director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) 1016. Jena Baker McNeill, (Policy Analyst @ Heritage Foundation) “Federal Infrastructure Investment,” Nov. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 12, “Building Infrastructure Resiliency: Private Sector Investment in Homeland Security,” September 23, 2008. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 at 2012 from www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/ federal- infrastructure-investment. There has been a large increase in privatization http://www.heritage.org/research/reports /2008/09/building- infrastructure- and infrastructure PPPs in many countries, but the OECD notes that the resiliency-private-sector-investment-in-homeland-security. How to Achieve Resiliency The best way to achieve resiliency in infrastructure is through United States "has lagged behind Australia and Europe in privatization of infrastructure such as roads, bridges and tunnels."25 More than one-fifth of the free market. The private sector can -- and should -- play a role in the infrastructure spending in Britain and Portugal is now through the PPP development of resilient infrastructure. Developing 21st-century infrastructure requires the private sector, whose members are generally well process, so this is becoming a normal way of doing business in some countries.26 informed on current infrastructure needs because of the need to stay competitive.[11] 1022. Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, “The Financing of Transportation Infrastructure,” Jan. 1, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 at 1017. Jena Baker McNeill, (Policy Analyst @ Heritage Foundation) “Building Infrastructure Resiliency: Private Sector Investment in Homeland http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/appl7en/ch7a2en.html. A challenge resides in identifying the respective roles and competencies of the Security,” September 23, 2008. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 at public and private sectors, which varies substantially depending on the http://www.heritage.org/research/reports /2008/09/building- infrastructure- resiliency-private-sector-investment-in-homeland-security. What we need concerned mode. Although a level of privatization is commonly perceived as a desirable outcome for the efficient use and operation of transportation instead is resiliency. In a national security context, resiliency is the capacity infrastructures, privatization comes with limitations. In some instances to maintain continuity of activities even in the face of threats.[10] Resiliency ensures real security -- both physical and economic; a dual privatization can be unsuccessful. The main reasons are linked with the private contractor unable to honor the commitments (which is rare) or the approach of protecting against attack and ensuring that if we are attacked, new cost structure is perceived to be unfair by users since the privatized society will continue. Resiliency does not mean that we need to forget the prevention-of-terrorism aspect of infrastructure. It simply means that infrastructure now offers market pricing (more common). If customers are used to low and subsidized costs they will not well respond to market prevention is not the end of the equation. We must change the infrastructure prices, particularly if they are not introduced in an incremental manner. mission to one that aims to improve infrastructure adequacy across the board while protecting high-risk targets. If we lack the ability to 1023. Steve H. Hanke, (Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins accommodate the infrastructure needs of the population, a catastrophic University) “In Praise of Private Infrastructure,” 2008. Retrieved Apr. 12, event would stymie the transportation and delivery of essential aid -- 2012 from http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/praise-private- whether goods or people. Well-maintained infrastructure can lessen or infrastructure). With the private provision of infrastructure, however, there largely eliminate damage from an attack -- minimizing loss of lives and is a potential problem: introducing and maintaining competition. This property. potential problem can arise because of the so-called natural monopoly character of many infrastructure projects. In short, even if there are no 1018. Jena Baker McNeill, (Policy Analyst @ Heritage Foundation) “Building Infrastructure Resiliency: Private Sector Investment in Homeland artificial barriers to entry, a monopoly will likely emerge because a single firm can produce goods and services more cheaply than multiple firms Security,” September 23, 2008. Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 at (multiple ports, bridges, etc. at the "same" location are not economically http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/09/building- infrastructure- resiliency-private-sector-investment-in-homeland-security. Furthering the feasible). poor state of American infrastructure is its interconnected nature. This 1024. Lisa Schweitzer (associate professor in the School of Policy, Planning interconnectedness was demonstrated in 2003 when overgrown trees, soft and Development at USC) Los Angeles Times. July 13, 2011. Retrieved electrical lines, and a failed alarm system produced a power outage for a Apr. 13, 2012 at http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/13/opinion/la-oe- majority of the Northeast.[4] Translated in a security sense, a terrorist attack schweitzer-infrastructure-20110713. Maybe Mica is right. But rushing to on our nation's weak infrastructure could be a crippling blow to millions of privatize state-owned assets can lead to terrible infrastructure deals that let Americans. private companies walk away with prime assets and leave taxpayers with no guarantee of better services or lower fees.
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1025. EDWARD L. GLAESER (professor of economics @ Harvard) 1032. Chris Edwards, (director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) “PPPs “Right-Turn Signal: Privatizing Our Way Out of Traffic,” Sept. 28, 2010. and Privatization for Infrastructure,” Nov. 17, 2011 Retrieved Apr 13, 2012 Retrieved Apr. 13, 2012 at http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/ at http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/ppps-and-privatization- for-infrastructure/. 09/28/right-turn-signal-privatizing-our-way-out-of-traffic/. But markets are Politics often results in federal infrastructure spending being misallocated. not perfect and private provision has its own pitfalls. In transportation, as in For example, a large share of Amtrak spending goes to rural states where every other setting, Mr. Winston properly notes that the important question passenger trains don’t make any economic sense. The way ahead is to is whether government failure is a more serious problem than market devolve infrastructure spending to state and local governments and the failure. Because the public sector controls almost all roads, airports and private sector. urban transit, we see the downsides of public control on a daily basis, but we don’t experience the social costs that could accompany privatization. A 1033. Chris Edwards (director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) private airport operator might try to exploit its monopoly power over a “Infrastructure Projects to Fix the Economy? Don't Bank on It,” Oct 21, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 14, 2012 at http://www.cato.org/ particular market or cut costs in a way that increases the probability of very publications/commentary/infrastructure-projects-fix-economy-dont-bank-it. costly, but rare, disaster. For plenty of examples of the downside of federal infrastructure, look at the 1026. Howard Shatz, (Analyst, RAND Corporation), HIGHWAY two oldest infrastructure agencies — the Army Corps of Engineers and the INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE ECONOMY: IMPLICATIONS FOR Bureau of Reclamation. Their histories show that the federal government FEDERAL POLICY, 2011, xiii. States and localities have always provided shouldn't be in the infrastructure business. Rather, state governments and the majority of money for highways and roads in the United States. Federal the private sector are best equipped to provide it. funding grew dramatically in the early years of the interstate highway 1034. Chris Edwards(director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) “The system, starting with the passage of the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956, Downside of Federal Infrastructure Spending,” Oct. 24, 2011. Retrieved but state and local financing has grown somewhat more rapidly since the early 1980s. For most of the years since 1956, the federal share of total Apr. 14, 2012 at http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/the-downside-of-federal- infrastructure-spending/. Critique: My view of devolving infrastructure government spending on highways and roads in the United States has funding to the states is unrealistic because only the federal government has hovered between 25 percent and 30 percent. enough “resources” to do big projects. Response: The federal government 1027. Chris Edwards, (director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) “PPPs has no magical source of money. All “federal dollars” ultimately come from and Privatization for Infrastructure,”Nov. 17, 2011 Retrieved Apr 13, 2012 taxpayers who live in the 50 states. It is true that the federal government can at http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/ppps-and-privatization- for-infrastructure/. run larger deficits that state governments, but that’s a reason not to give the A key problem with federal government involvement in infrastructure is Feds responsibility for spending activities because they tend to go hog wild. that when it makes mistakes, it replicates those mistakes across the country. 1035. Daniel J. Elazar, (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) “Federalism Think about the disastrous high-rise public housing projects built in dozens and Peace-making,” Nov. 23, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 at of cities in the 20th century. Or consider how the Obama administration is trying to impose its misguided high-speed rail vision on the states. http://www.jcpa.org/dje/articles/fed-peace.htm. One of the most important developments contributing to the shift in the world political paradigm from 1028. Ronald Utt (Senior Research Fellow at The Heritage Foundation) statism to federalism has been the demonstrated utility of federal “Obama’s Peculiar Obsession with Infrastructure Banks Will Not Aid arrangements in peace-making. In a world well advanced in its movement Economic Revival,” August 30, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 14, 2012 at toward federalism as the new paradigm for interstate and intergroup http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/08/using-infrastructure- relations, we must expect it also to offer considerable promise for peace- banks-to-spur-economic-recovery. The President’s proposal for an making. While it is wise not to exaggerate that promise and look upon infrastructure bank is one idea that he and other progressives have been federalism as some kind of vade macum, we as students of federalism with flogging for the past few years. Although several infrastructure bank our institutions should work hard to find ever better ways to utilize and proposals have been introduced in Congress, all involve the creation of a apply federalism to the cause of peace. new federal bureaucracy that would provide federally funded loans and grants to approved infrastructure proposals submitted to the bank by eligible 1036. Daniel J. Elazar, (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) “Federalism and Peace-making,” Nov. 23, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 at entities. Funds to provide these loans would either be borrowed by the bank http://www.jcpa.org/dje/articles/fed-peace.htm. I would suggest that there or provided by appropriations, depending on the proposal. But an infrastructure bank would do little to spur the economic recovery—and are three levels or, if one prefers, dimensions of federalism, involved in the use of federalism for peace-making. The most proximate is the use of nothing to create new jobs. federal arrangements, whether by that name or some other. The use of 1029. Robert Jay Dilger (Senior Specialist in American National arrangements that are able to combine self-rule and shared rule and to Government) “Federalism Issues in Surface Transportation Policy: Past and constitutionalize the combination is federalism even if it is called Present,” January 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr 14, 2012 at functionalism or autonomy or something else. There is an old American http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40431.pdf. It remains to be seen how all saying: "If it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, and looks like a duck, it of these factors will play out during SAFETEA’s reauthorization. One is a duck, no matter what you call it." That is why the European Union of certainty is that Congress will play the key role in determining the future of today, although founded as the European Community with a deliberately federalism relationships in surface transportation policy. Another is that neutral name and description as a set of functional communities, developed those relationships will continue to evolve over time, adopting to changes in into a federal system of the confederal species after passing through periods American society and in Congress. of growth and crisis over the past 40 years. The earlier effort to establish the openly federal "United States of Europe" failed because it reached too far 1030. Chris Edwards (director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) and was too explicit in doing so, awakening the hesitations and reservations “Infrastructure Projects to Fix the Economy? Don't Bank on It,” Oct 21, of too many of those involved in the decision-making at whatever level in 2011. Retrieved Apr. 14, 2012 at http://www.cato.org/ publications/commentary/infrastructure-projects-fix-economy-dont-bank-it. the years immediately following World War II. Hence it was only when the leading European federalists retreated, as it were, from federalism and Increased infrastructure spending has bipartisan support in Washington adopted functionalism that it was possible to start building a federal union these days. President Obama wants a new federal infrastructure bank, and members of both parties want to pass big highway and air-traffic-control in Western Europe. funding bills. The politicians think these bills will create desperately needed 1037. Shiv Raj Bhatt & Syed Mansoob Murshed (MICROCON Project and jobs, but the cost of that perceived benefit is too high: Federal infrastructure National Programme Manager & Institute of Social Studies The Hague) spending has a long and painful history of pork-barrel politics and November 2009. Journal of Law and Conflict Resolution. Accessed Apr. bureaucratic bungling, with money often going to wasteful and 17, 2012 at www.academicjournals.org/jlcr/pdf/pdf2009/nov/bhat and environmentally damaging projects. murshed.pdf. It is also argued that federalism, as a check and balance mechanism, may help to mitigate the ethnic security dilemma7 (Posen, 1031. Chris Edwards (director of tax policy studies at Cato Institute) “Infrastructure Projects to Fix the Economy? Don't Bank on It,” Oct 21, 1993) and may insulate ethnic groups from central authority and dampen or impede predatory politics. Federalism, thus, is one of the powersharing 2011. Retrieved Apr. 14, 2012 at http://www.cato.org/ arrangements that Lphart calls for in divided (conflict-prone) societies. publications/commentary/infrastructure-projects-fix-economy-dont-bank-it. When the federal government is paying for infrastructure, state officials and members of Congress fight for their shares of the funding, without worrying too much about efficiency, environmental issues or other longer-term factors. The solution is to move as much infrastructure funding as we can to the state, local and private levels. That would limit the misallocation of projects by Congress, while encouraging states to experiment with lower- cost solutions. It's true that the states make infrastructure mistakes as well, as California appears to be doing by subsidizing high-speed rail. But at least state-level mistakes aren't automatically repeated across the country.
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1038. Daniel J. Elazar, (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) “Federalism 1045. Robert Jay Dilger (Senior Specialist in American National and Peace-making,” Nov. 23, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 at Government) “Federalism Issues in Surface Transportation Policy: Past and http://www.jcpa.org/dje/articles/fed-peace.htm. In some cases, inter-ethnic Present,” January 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr 14, 2012 at conflict between more evenly balanced groups, the application of any http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40431.pdf. He added that “50 strong state power-sharing solution is all that more difficult. We have seen how it has programs will not necessarily provide a strong national program, and the erupted into full-scale, bloody, even genocidal, civil war in the territories of experience in the European Community and the experience that we’ve had former Yugoslavia. Their leadership, instead of reinforcing the in working with the 50 States in response to the House Public Works constitutionalization of a confederal solution already well on its way to [Committee’s] charge that we develop an illustrative national [highway] becoming the reality in practice, disrupted the best and most peaceful era system suggests that there is a need for Federal oversight of coordination.” that those peoples had ever known and reintensified old conflicts that had To avoid a presidential veto, the Senate bill was amended on the Senate been much reduced under the previous regime. Nevertheless, attempts to floor to include funding for a National Highway System. achieve a peaceful solution still have rested upon suggested confederal arrangements, such as the division of Bosnia into semi-autonomous 1046. Robert Jay Dilger (Senior Specialist in American National provinces or into Serbian, Croatian, and Muslim areas punctuated by "safe Government) “Federalism Issues in Surface Transportation Policy: Past and Present,” January 5, 2011. Retrieved Apr 14, 2012 at havens." There is nothing else to suggest in a democratic age. Unless the http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40431.pdf. On April 1, 1998, peoples on the ground and the rest of the world are willing to allow a more violent and genocidal solution such as "ethnic cleansing" with impunity or Representative Kasich offered his bill as an amendment in the nature of a substitute to BESTEA (Building Efficient Surface Transportation and perhaps the imposition of very severe authoritarian if not totalitarian rule, Equity Act of 1998), the House ISTEA reauthorization bill. During floor this is the only direction in which to look, where full territorial partition is not feasible. Moreover, simple partitionist solutions are becoming less and debate, Representative E. G. “Bud” Shuster, Chair of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, rose in opposition to the amendment, less feasible in an increasingly interdependent world. One need not see arguing: while this would simply turn things back to the States, ironically confederal arrangements as universally applicable or anything like that to understand the truth of this. Instead, more sophisticated devices that there is a greater need for us to have a coordinated, tied-together national transportation system than ever. Why? Because more people and more combine partition and linkage are called for. goods are moving interstate than ever before.99 He also argued that 1039. Daniel J. Elazar, (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) “Federalism “Indeed, there is a greater need to have this tied together than ever before. and Peace-making,” Nov. 23, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 at http://www.jcpa.org/dje/articles/fed-peace.htm. Religion may not cause a 1047. Daniel J. Elazar, (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) “Federalism and Peace-making,” Nov. 23, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 at conflict and in no case is it the sole cause, but certain kinds of religious http://www.jcpa.org/dje/articles/fed-peace.htm. There is a certain differences exacerbate conflicts that otherwise might occur in any case. That is the case with most modern ethnic conflicts. Conflicts caused by justification for this seeming truth in that "federal" is a loaded term, one that, more than simply describing arrangements and institutions, has to do religion alone are more likely to be intra- than inter-ethnic. These intra- with serious principles, real attitudes, binding relationships, specific ethnic conflicts may revolve around rule and power and religion may be a means to resolve them. This has been true in the case of all three expectations with regard to mutual trust, in short, the will to federate. Even if the discussion of federalist political culture is relatively new on the monotheistic religions at various times in their history. It is true in Islam political science agenda, the sense that federalism can only succeed where today with regard to Muslims, even though Islam with regard to non- Muslims is one of the powerful fomenters of conflict. In the resolution of such political culture exists sufficiently also figures into this equation. Even less expressed is the expectation that federalism has at least one of its major such conflicts, federal arrangements may indeed prove to be very helpful, roots in the idea of federal liberty, that is to say, liberty to do that which is not so much in taking the first steps, but in taking the next steps, in providing the institutions and mechanisms to bring the resolution of the mutually agreed upon in the founding compact or its subsequent constitutional modifications. Without federal liberty as an accepted conflict to a level of sufficient stability for peace to begin to work itself out. principle neither freedom nor responsibility can develop properly. 1040. Daniel J. Elazar, (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) “Federalism and Peace-making,” Nov. 23, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 at 1048. Daniel J. Elazar, (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) “Federalism http://www.jcpa.org/dje/articles/fed-peace.htm. Federalism, which I need and Peace-making,” Nov. 23, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 at http://www.jcpa.org/dje/articles/fed-peace.htm. The problem of ethnicity not remind this audience comes from the Latin for "covenant," carries that and confederal arrangements needs further study. Increasingly, the message within it, which both explains why it is too "heavy" a term for many who must seek peace, while at the same time it carries with it the only application of federal institutions and practices, especially in their confederal form, is based on the need to resolve inter-ethnic conflicts over idea that can be the basis for real peace. the same or adjacent territories. Inter-ethnic conflicts are thus the greatest 1041. Janey Kavinoky, (Staff), FREE ENTERPRISE, Feb. 16, 2012. catalysts for federal solutions, yet perhaps their greatest enemy. Indeed, as Retrieved Mar. 8, 2012 from www.freeenterprise.com/infrastructure/ 5- is indicated in this series, federal solutions are particularly attractive when answered-questions-about-federal-transportation-infrastructure-investment. ethnic groups are involved because they seem to offer the promise of Rep. Paul Ryan points out in A Roadmap for America’s Future that preserving ethnic group identity and political autonomy without requiring transportation is a core government responsibility: “Governments must that every ethnic group be given a totally separate state. At the same time, provide for a limited set of public goods: they must build roads and other ethnic groups in the full thrust of their ethnic separatist demands are least infrastructure, foster the protection of property rights, and maintain internal able to overcome ethnic egocentricity and to find a will to federate. and external security… this ‘core’ government spending tends to foster Moreover, the ideology of ethnicity very often undercuts any political economic growth.” culture of power sharing that may exist. 1042. Janey Kavinoky, (Staff), FREE ENTERPRISE, Feb. 16, 2012. 1049. Daniel J. Elazar, (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) “Federalism Retrieved Mar. 8, 2012 from www.freeenterprise.com/infrastructure/ 5- and Peace-making,” Nov. 23, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 at answered-questions-about-federal-transportation-infrastructure-investment. http://www.jcpa.org/dje/articles/fed-peace.htm. So, too, with so many of the States need a strong federal partner to ensure that interstate commerce, failed Third World federations attempted at the time of decolonization. In international trade policies, interstate passenger travel, emergency some cases the formal application of federalism led to total disengagement preparedness, national defense, and global competitiveness are adequately of the member states. In the Federation of Northern and Southern Rhodesia supported by the nation’s infrastructure. Without federal support for an and Nyasaland, the conflict between the white minority and the black interconnected transportation system, several large, less-populated rural majority which gave the federation the appearance, probably correct, of states would be unable to afford the costs of sustaining their roads and trying to preserve white minority rule, collapsed entirely and each colony bridges. became an independent state. Federal efforts in Ghana, where the racial problem did not exist but the problem of dictatorship and democracy did, it 1043. Peter Harkness (editor and deputy publisher of the Congressional was dictatorship that overwhelmed federalism. Quarterly news service) “What Brand of Federalism Is Next?” January 2012. Accessed Apr. 14, 2012 at www.governing.com/columns/potomac- 1050. Daniel J. Elazar, (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) “Federalism chronicle/gov-col-what-brand-of-federalism-is-next.html. In this and Peace-making,” Nov. 23, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 17, 2012 at atmosphere, the Obama administration has pursued a very unique mixture http://www.jcpa.org/dje/articles/fed-peace.htm. In the case of Pakistan and of collaborative and coercive strategies in dealing with states and localities, other similar examples, it was lack of the requisite attitudinal dimensions of making it hard to define just what kind of federalism we’re seeing. The trust, will to federate, and federal political culture that turned federation health-care, education and financial regulation reform bills, the climate partly into secession and partly into a dead letter for many years. On the change proposal and the massive financial stimulus bill all represented an other hand, while the West Indies Federation collapsed because it reached aggressive use of federal power, some of it unprecedented and some pre- for too much, the Caribbean Community, a confederal arrangement, empting state regulations. emerged out of its wreckage based on an unavoidable necessity for cooperation and sharing, even among islands by definition insular. 1044. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, AMERICA'S TOP FIVE TRANSPORTATION HEADACHES -- AND 1051. Joe Penney (staff writer) “Proposed US Foreign Aid Shows Slight THEIR REMEDIES, Jan. 2009, 4. Twenty states have cut $7.6 billion from Increase,” Feb. 24, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at their fiscal year 2009 budgets, and 30 states have identified additional http://passblue.com/2012/02/24/proposed-us-foreign-aid-shows-slight- shortfalls totaling more than $30 billion. Twenty-five states have also increase/. In his recently released 2013 budget proposal, President Obama identified shortfalls of $60 billion for FY 2010. In many cases, these budget has increased funds for foreign aid to the State Department and the United shortfalls are forcing states to delay billions of dollars in planned States Agency for International Development, but the 1.2 percent rise over transportation improvements. 2012 figures is still less than 1 percent of the entire federal budget. The total amount proposed for foreign aid is $51.6 billion.
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1052. Susan Cornwell (staff writer) “U.S. foreign aid escapes slashing cuts 1059. Robert Kagan (senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings in fiscal 2012,” Dec. 19, 2011. Accessed Apr. 18, 2012 at www.reuters. Institution) “Not Fade Away,” Jan. 11, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at com/article/2011/12/19/us-usa-aid-idUSTRE7BI1KO20111219. Foreign aid http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/magazine/99521/america-world-power- not related to war spending was cut by $2.2 billion from 2011. The budget declinism?passthru=ZDkyNzQzZ for operational costs of the State Department and related agencies was Tk3YWY3YzE0OWM5MGRiZmI%20wNGQwNDBiZmI. Is the United slashed $2.6 billion from last year, and operations at the U.S. Agency for States in decline, as so many seem to believe these days? Or are Americans International Development (USAID) were cut by $258 million from 2011. in danger of committing pre-emptive superpower suicide out of a misplaced fear of their own declining power? A great deal depends on the answer to 1053. Steven Lee Myers (staff writer) “With the U.S. budget in crisis, foreign aid is on the chopping block,” Oct. 9, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 these questions. The present world order—characterized by an unprecedented number of democratic nations; a greater global prosperity, at http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20111009/NEWS0107/110090310/. even with the current crisis, than the world has ever known; and a long With the administration and Congress facing a deadline for still deeper cuts in spending, government programs across the board face the ax, from public peace among great powers—reflects American principles and preferences, and was built and preserved by American power in all its political, education to the military, but proposed cuts to the State Department and economic, and military dimensions. If American power declines, this world foreign aid come on top of an $8 billion reduction in April, the single largest cut to any one department under the deal that kept the government order will decline with it. It will be replaced by some other kind of order, reflecting the desires and the qualities of other world powers. Or perhaps it from shutting down. will simply collapse, as the European world order collapsed in the first half 1054. Steven Lee Myers (staff writer) “With the U.S. budget in crisis, of the twentieth century. The belief, held by many, that even with foreign aid is on the chopping block,” Oct. 9, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 diminished American power “the underlying foundations of the liberal at http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20111009/NEWS0107/110090310/. international order will survive and thrive,” as the political scientist G. John Rep. Kay Granger, R-Texas, chairwoman of the House appropriations Ikenberry has argued, is a pleasant illusion. American decline, if it is real, subcommittee overseeing foreign affairs, said the budget crisis was forcing will mean a different world for everyone. “a fundamental change” in how foreign aid is spent. Lawmakers and 1060. Bill Gates (co-chairman of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) officials, she said, needed to prioritize spending according to U.S. national “The Truth About Foreign Aid,” Jan. 26, 2012. Retrieved Apr 18, 2012 at security interests and justify those decisions to Americans who are generally skeptical of foreign aid. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/27/opinion/the-truth-about-foreign- aid.html?_r=1. My hope is that we can convert some of the generosity that 1055. Steven Lee Myers (staff writer) “With the U.S. budget in crisis, goes into humanitarian relief into stronger support for foreign aid programs. foreign aid is on the chopping block,” Oct. 9, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 Many of those suffering in the Horn of Africa were going hungry before at http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20111009/NEWS0107/110090310/. there was a recognized emergency in the region. In fact, more than 1 billion Both versions cut spending across the board, and around the world. The people in the world don’t have enough food to eat. One of the most House’s plan also reflects longstanding Republican views on matters of powerful solutions to this problem is to help poor farmers get more out of policy, for example by prohibiting financing for organizations that perform their tiny plots of land. In parts of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa abortions or provide needle exchanges. It would also cut U.S. contributions especially, farmers plant low-yielding seeds, climate change is starting to to international organizations like the United Nations and its Human Rights shrink their harvests, and plant diseases are invading their fields. New seeds Council, the World Bank and the World Health Organization. and other tools can help farmers cope with these challenges. For example, my foundation helped fund the development of a variety of rice that can 1056. Kevin Clarke (staff writer) “Starved for attention: Why budget cuts shouldn't include nixing foreign aid,” Sept. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 18, survive flooding and will feed an extra 30 million people every year in Bangladesh and India. That additional rice will not only prevent starvation 2012 at http://www.uscatholic.org/culture/social-justice/2011/08/starved- but also help farmers earn more so they can take sick children to the doctor attention-why-budget-cuts-shouldnt-include-nixing-foreign-aid. What if, in an effort to reduce the federal deficit at home, Americans turned their backs and pay school fees. The question is, how do we continue to do the research needed to develop these new tools? Poor countries are investing more in on the suffering and the starving around the world? It seems their own agricultural sectors, but they don’t have the resources to lead on incomprehensible that the world’s richest nation might abandon the pivotal role it has played in humanitarian relief, but that is exactly what some fear R&D. Aid is a key piece of the puzzle, and right now the entire research budget of the group responsible for agricultural science for the poorest is might happen as the United States puts together a plan to cut $2.4 to $3 just $300 million per year. It’s a shame to see such a high-leverage trillion from the federal budget over the next 10 years. opportunity generate such ambivalence. 1057. Kevin Clarke (staff writer) “Starved for attention: Why budget cuts shouldn't include nixing foreign aid,” Sept. 16, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 18, 1061. Bill Gates (co-chairman of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) “2012 Annual Letter From Bill Gates,” Jan. 2012. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 2012 at http://www.uscatholic.org/culture/social-justice/2011/08/starved- at http://www.gatesfoundation.org/annual-letter/2012/Pages/home-en.aspx. attention-why-budget-cuts-shouldnt-include-nixing-foreign-aid. Former U.N. Ambassador and member of Congress Tony Hall, now an advocate for Fifteen percent of the world in extreme poverty actually represents a big improvement. Fifty years ago, about 40 percent of the global population the world’s hungry, worries aid programs will be especially vulnerable as was poor. Then, in the 1960s and 1970s, in what is called the “Green deficit reduction decisions are made. International aid is not protected by natural constituencies in the United States, he says. Politicians are not likely Revolution,” Norman Borlaug and other researchers created new seed varieties for rice, wheat, and maize (corn) that helped many farmers vastly to suffer recriminations at the ballot box if they cut off funding. Lives are at improve their yields. In some places, like East Asia, food intake went up by stake, says Hall. as much as 50 percent. Globally, the price of wheat dropped by two-thirds. 1058. Zalmay Khalilzad (former ambassador to the United Nations) “The These changes saved countless lives and helped nations develop. We have Economy and National Security,” Feb. 8, 2011. Accessed Apr. 18, 2012 at the ability to accelerate this historic progress. We can be more innovative http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national- about delivering solutions that already exist to the farmers who need them. security-zalmay-khalilzad. The stakes are high. In modern history, the Knowledge about managing soil and tools like drip irrigation can help poor longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S. farmers grow more food today. We can also discover new approaches and leadership. By contrast, multi-polar systems have been unstable, with their create new tools to fundamentally transform farmers’ lives. But we won’t competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the advance if we don’t continue to fund agricultural innovation, and I am very great powers. Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both worried about where those funds will come from in the current economic world wars. American retrenchment could have devastating consequences. and political climate. Without an American security blanket, regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. Under this scenario, there 1062. Bill Gates (co-chairman of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) “2012 Annual Letter From Bill Gates,” Jan. 2012. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 would be a heightened possibility of arms races, miscalculation, or other at http://www.gatesfoundation.org/annual-letter/2012/Pages/home-en.aspx. crises spiraling into all-out conflict. Alternatively, in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers, weaker powers may shift their The world faces a clear choice. If we invest relatively modest amounts, many more poor farmers will be able to feed their families. If we don’t, one geopolitical posture away from the United States. Either way, hostile states in seven people will continue living needlessly on the edge of starvation. would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. My annual letter this year is an argument for making the choice to keep on helping extremely poor people build self-sufficiency. 1063. Bill Gates (co-chairman of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) “2012 Annual Letter From Bill Gates,” Jan. 2012. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at http://www.gatesfoundation.org/annual-letter/2012/Pages/home-en.aspx. My concern is not only about farming; it applies to all the areas of global development and global health in which we work. Using the latest tools— seeds, vaccines, AIDS drugs, and contraceptives, for example—we have made impressive progress. However, if we don’t make these success stories widely known, we won’t generate the funding commitments needed to maintain progress and save lives. At stake are the future prospects of one billion human beings
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1064. Claire Andre and Manuel Velasquez, “World Hunger: A Moral 1071. Joe Penney (staff writer) “Proposed US Foreign Aid Shows Slight Response,” Jan. 18, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at Increase,” Feb. 24, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at http://passblue.com/ http://www.scu.edu/ethics/publications/iie/v5n1/hunger.html. Between now 2012/02/24/proposed-us-foreign-aid-shows-slight-increase/. The budget and tomorrow morning, 40,000 children will starve to death. The day after will continue to support programs to fight child and maternal deaths and tomorrow, 40,000 more children will die, and so on throughout 1992. In a infectious diseases as well as to finance antiretroviral drug treatment for "world of plenty," the number of human beings dying or suffering from HIV prevention through a $7.9 billion fund for global health initiatives. The hunger, malnutrition, and hunger-related diseases is staggering. According administration will also maintain its $4 billion, three-year pledge to the to the World Bank, over 1 billion people—at least one quarter of the world's Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria and continue to population—live in poverty. Over half of these people live in South Asia; finance the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations, known as most of the remainder in sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia. Gavi. 1065. Daniel C. Maguire (professor of ethics at Marquette University in 1072. Bill Gates (co-chairman of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) Milwaukee) “Population, Poverty and Sustainable Development,” “2012 Annual Letter From Bill Gates,” Jan. 2012. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 Spring/Summer 1996. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at www.sacredchoices.org/ at http://www.gatesfoundation.org/annual-letter/2012/Pages/home-en.aspx. population_poverty_sustainable_dev.htm. Not surprisingly, people, in Meanwhile, there has also been amazing progress on the second major goal solidarity with the decedent earth are dying too. Four million babies die for the AIDS community: scaling up treatment. This is due mostly to the yearly from diarrhea in the euphemistically entitled "developing world." Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and to a U.S. Almost 15 million infants die yearly from poverty-related causes. Life- program called PEPFAR: the United States President’s Emergency Plan for expectancy among the poorest in the world is 45 years. AIDS Relief. More than 6.6 million people are alive today because they are taking ARV drugs. Ten years ago it looked as if almost all of these people 1066. Scott Keyes (staff writer) “Sen. Rand Paul Calls For ‘Eliminating would die because the drugs were available only in rich countries. The Wasteful Things Like Foreign Aid,’” Feb. 15, 2012. Retrieved Apr 18, 2012 global fund has saved millions of lives at http://thinkprogress.org/security/2012/02/15/425960/rand-paul-eliminate- foreign-aid/. Second, zeroing out foreign aid would be a disaster for both 1073. Bill Gates (co-chairman of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) those living in dire poverty around the world and the United States’ foreign “The Truth About Foreign Aid,” Jan. 26, 2012. Retrieved Apr 18, 2012 at policy interests. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) ripped his own http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/27/opinion/the-truth-about-foreign- party on the issue last month, saying that eliminating foreign aid would be aid.html?_r=1. I am proud to live in a world where a stranger’s suffering “outrightly foolish” and “un-Christian.” “I resent the idea that the matters. Yet foreign aid, the best way to address that suffering, has a conservative viewpoint somehow is at odds with the idea of strategic growing legion of critics. That is a contradiction we must remedy, and the investment in countries around the globe,” Huckabee said in South best way to do it is to tell the truth about aid. Carolina. Helping lift people around the globe out of poverty also benefits our own economic and national security interests. 1074. Derrick Boykin & Charles E. Blake (Reverend & Bishop) “Our Africa: The U.S. Moral Obligation to Address Global Hunger,” Oct. 18, 1067. Bill Gates (co-chairman of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) 2011. Retrieved Apr 18, 2012 at www.bread.org/media/coverage/news/ our- “The Truth About Foreign Aid,” Jan. 26, 2012. Retrieved Apr 18, 2012 at africa-the-us-moral.html. Unfortunately, U.S. funding for both longer-term http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/27/opinion/the-truth-about-foreign- agriculture and nutrition programs and emergency food aid is at risk. aid.html?_r=1. There is also the argument that aid doesn’t work even when Ironically, U.S. foreign aid accounts for less than 1 percent of the budget. it gets to its intended recipients. This claim is not convincing either. In the Balancing the federal budget will take more than cuts to programs like past 50 years, the number of children who die every year has gone down these. The Bible tells us to uplift - not demoralize - the “least of these.” We from 20 million to fewer than 8 million. Meanwhile, the proportion of are incredulous that some of our nation’s leaders, including people from the people living in extreme poverty has declined by more than half. These “Bible Belt,” are taking positions on the federal budget without massive improvements are due in large part to aid-funded programs to buy understanding how their decisions impact vulnerable people. We urge our vaccines and boost farmers’ productivity. lawmakers to focus instead on protecting assistance programs for hungry and poor people around the world. 1068. Bill Gates (co-chairman of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) “2012 Annual Letter From Bill Gates,” Jan. 2012. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 1075. Steven Lee Myers (staff writer) “With the U.S. budget in crisis, at http://www.gatesfoundation.org/annual-letter/2012/Pages/home-en.aspx. foreign aid is on the chopping block,” Oct. 9, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 My report focused on how the G20 can help ensure that the poorest are not at http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20111009/NEWS0107/110090310/. forgotten, as rich countries deal with significant economic and budget The last time U.S. foreign aid declined so significantly was in the 1990s, challenges. The report, “Innovation with Impact: Financing 21st Century after the end of the Cold War and the political fight between Democrats and Development,” is on gatesfoundation.org. It starts by describing how much Republicans that led to a balanced budget under President Bill Clinton. John life has improved for the poorest over the past 50 years. Part of the reason is Norris, a former State Department and Agency for International the aid contributed by rich countries. A lot of media attention focused on Development, or USAID, official, said the country could “be much more my suggestions of a modest financial transaction tax, increased tobacco selective” in delivering aid “without doing much harm to the national taxes, and a carbon tax to support aid commitments. None of these ideas has interest.” universal agreement, and none will solve the problem alone, but they can make a big difference if even just a few countries adopt them. 1076. Scott Rose (staff writer) “MF Raises Russian Growth Forecast to 4% on Higher Crude Prices,” Apr 17, 2012. Accessed Apr 19, 2012 at 1069. Bill Gates (co-chairman of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-17/imf-raises-russian-growth- “2012 Annual Letter From Bill Gates,” Jan. 2012. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 forecast-to-4-on-higher-crude-prices.html. Russia’s economy will expand 4 at http://www.gatesfoundation.org/annual-letter/2012/Pages/home-en.aspx. percent this year, faster than earlier estimated, as the world’s biggest energy Following my presentation, a number of the leaders shared specific exporter benefits from higher prices for commodities, the International suggestions for addressing these issues. David Cameron said it would make Monetary Fund said. his country’s leadership on giving .7 percent of gross domestic product by 2013 in tough times easier if more countries would do the same. I got the 1077. RT.com, “Oil prices: The make or break of the Russian economy - strong impression that the leaders themselves are very sympathetic to the World Bank,” Apr. 3, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at http://rt.com/business/news/world-bank-report-russia-543/. The lower case that aid budgets should not be cut even as governments reduce their inflation rate is among the major achievements of Russian economy, spending. However, this will be possible only if their constituents understand that aid, which is less than 1 percent of the budget in most according to the World Bank. CPI inflation fell for 10 months in a row from 9.7% in April 2011 to 3.8% in February 2012, the lowest level since the countries, has a significant impact on people’s lives. I have tried in this early 1990s. letter to make that case. Whether it’s fighting plant disease, treating people with AIDS, or getting a measles vaccine to a child in a remote area— 1078. Xinhua News Service, “IMF Raises Russia's 2012 GDP Growth to modest investments in the poorest make a huge difference. 4%,” Apr. 18, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at http://english.cri.cn/6826/ 2012/04/18/191s694011.htm. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 1070. Bill Gates (co-chairman of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) Tuesday said that Russia's 2012 GDP growth could reach 4 percent, up from “2012 Annual Letter From Bill Gates,” Jan. 2012. Retrieved Apr. 18, 2012 at http://www.gatesfoundation.org/annual-letter/2012/Pages/home-en.aspx. its January prediction of 3.3 percent. In its latest World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday, the IMF also raised its 2013 growth outlook for Unfortunately, many people believe the opposite—that money spent on Russia from 3.5 percent to 3.9 percent. development is wasted, or that it doesn’t get lasting results. Melinda and I will spend a lot of time in the coming year explaining why they’re 1079. Xinhua News Service, “IMF Raises Russia's 2012 GDP Growth to mistaken. The relatively small amount of money invested in development 4%,” Apr. 18, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at http://english.cri.cn/6826/ has changed the future prospects of billions of people—and it can do the 2012/04/18/191s694011.htm. Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) same for billions more if we make the choice to continue investing in expanded by 4.2 percent in 2011, making the country the third fastest innovation. We will repeat that message over and over in our speeches and growing economy only behind China and India. interviews, and on gatesfoundation.org and gatesnotes.com, because we are convinced that when people hear stories of the lives they’ve helped to improve, they want to do more, not less.
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1080. John Kasarda, (Prof., Business, U. North Carolina at Chapel Hill), 1088. RT.com, “Oil prices: The make or break of the Russian economy - AEROTROPOLIS: THE WAY WE’LL LIVE NEXT, 2011, 351. Why not World Bank,” Apr. 3, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at replace planes with trains? High-speed rail is a mainstay of Japan and http://rt.com/business/ news/world-bank-report-russia-543/. Russia has to Europe, shuttling more intercity commuters between Tokyo and Osaka or thank high oil prices for the better state of its economy. A World Bank Paris and Lyon than the Delta Shuttle does between New York and Boston, report says it has the edge over other emerging countries and the EU, but and with a vastly lower carbon footprint. The Obama administration has the rosy picture will become bleaker unless the country deals with a number made HSR in America a priority, assigning $8 billion in stimulus funds to of challenges. exploring ten potential corridors in the Midwest and South, and along the 1089. Kenneth Rapoza (staff writer) “Oil A Problem For Russian Economy, coasts. "Investing in a high-speed rail system will lower our dependence on Official Says,” Apr 3, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at www.forbes.com/ foreign oil and the bill for a tank of gas," Vice President Joe Biden explained, "loosen the congestion suffocating our highways and skyways, sites/kenrapoza/2012/04/03/oil-a-problem-for-russian-economy-official- says/. Russia, awash in oil and natural gas. It’s the reason why the economy and significantly reduce the damage we do to our planet." has a budget surplus, and for some it is the reason why Vladimir Putin and 1081. Andy Clarke, (Dir., League of American Bicyclists), United Russia are still in power. Follow the rising price of oil over the last CONSTRUCTING A GREEN TRANSPORTATION POLICY: TRANSIT seven years and you will see the rising GDP of the Russian economy right MODES AND INFRASTRUCTURE, Hrg., Mar. 19, 2009, 23. The Rails to along with it. It’s national icon, Gazprom, is a multi-billion dollar, football Trails Conservancy recently calculated that a "modest increase" in bicycling sponsoring natural gas behemoth. The biggest in the world. And companies and walking could lead to an annual reduction of 70 billion miles of driving. like it, from Rosneft to the privately held Lukoil oil are bad news for the A more aggressive increase in bicycle use and walking could avoid 200 Russians in the not-so-distant future. Combined they and others in the oil billion miles. These shifts — which would see non-motorized mode share and gas biz account for 75% of Russia’s exports. rides to 13% or 25% respectively —would cut oil dependence and climate pollution from passenger vehicles by 3 percent to 8 percent. 1090. Kenneth Rapoza (staff writer) “Oil A Problem For Russian Economy, Official Says,” Apr 3, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at www.forbes.com/ 1082. Peter Varga, (CEO, Interurban Transit Partnership), sites/kenrapoza/2012/04/03/oil-a-problem-for-russian-economy-official- CONSTRUCTING A GREEN TRANSPORTATION POLICY: TRANSIT says/. She warned that a fall in GDP growth rates by 0.7-1.7% will cause “a MODES AND INFRASTRUCTURE, Hrg., Mar. 19, 2009, 15. Currently, rapid loss of (Russia’s) share of the global market and, what is most there are more than 10 billion trips taken yearly on public transportation. important, will reduce opportunities for increasing incomes and living With every additional billion trips taken, oil consumption can be reduced by standards.” 420 million gallons, and our carbon footprint reduced by 33 million metric tons. Establishing a national goal to double ridership by 2020 could have 1091. Western Morning News, 2007. (staff, October 22, 2007. Online. Lexis. Accessed, February 10, 2008. Mohamed ElBaradei, chairman of the significant effects. With an average "modest" growth rate of 5.5 percent, the International Atomic Energy Agency and chief United Nations nuclear United States could save another 4.5 billion gallons of fuel per year and an additional 46 million metric tons of carbon emissions per year. With a ten negotiator, has already stated that the current regime makes further proliferation of nuclear arms "virtually inevitable". Dr Fox said: "Unless the percent growth rate in public transportation trips, the United states could international community develops new controls and ownership of both save 141.9 million metric tons of carbon emissions annually (equal to eight percent of total carbon emissions from transportation today) and also save nuclear fuels and spent fuels and unless there are clear economic incentives for countries to accept this new authority, with the major powers willing to 15.2 billion gallons of fuel per year. effectively police it, then we are asking for trouble." It is vital for the 1083. Resources For the Future, 2010 (February 3, 2010, “Reassessing the international community both to secure all existing nuclear facilities — Oil Security Premium,” www.rff.org/News/Features/Pages/ Reassessing- particularly in the former Soviet Union — from terrorists and thieves and to the-Oil-Security-Premium.aspx). Further complicating matters, consumers ensure that no new nuclear weapons states emerge, said Dr Fox. cannot distinguish between a barrel of oil produced in Saudi Arabia and one produced in Alaska because all oil is sold on the same market, with prices 1092. Taylor, 2002 (Stuart Jr., Senior Writer with the National Journal and moving together. However, domestic oil production is stable, whereas contributing editor at Newsweek, Legal Times, September 16, L/N). The truth is, no matter what we do about Iraq, if we don't stop proliferation production outside the United States contains unstable elements, giving another five or ten potentially unstable nations may go nuclear before long, policymakers a reason to differentiate between domestic and imported oil even if consumers cannot. making it ever more likely that one or more bombs will be set off on our soil by terrorists or terrorist governments. Even an airtight missile defense 1084. The Moscow Times, 8/11/2011 (“RTS Stock Futures Rise on Oil, will be useless against a nuke hidden in a truck, a shipping container, or a U.S. Job Data,” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-11/rts-stock- boat. Unless we get serious about stopping proliferation, we are headed for futures-rise-on-oil-u-s-job-data-russia-overnight.html). Russian stock "a world filled with nuclear-weapons states where every crisis threatens to futures were supported by the fact that “crude, Brent in particular, has go nuclear," where "the survival of civilization truly is in question from day actually weathered the storm reasonably well,” Julian Rimmer, a trader of to day," and where "it would be impossible to keep these weapons out of the Russian shares at CF Global Trading in London, said in a telephone hands of terrorists, religious cults, and criminal organizations," So writes interview. “There are high degrees of correlations between all global equity Ambassador Thomas Graham Jr., a moderate Republican who served as a markets at the moment. We have retail sales data in the U.S. If we have a career arms-controller under six presidents and led the successful Clinton figure better than expected, that would help the sentiment somewhat.” administration effort to extend the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. 1085. Cat Contiguglia, 3/16/2011 (staff writer, “Oil price spikes are short- 1093. Scott Rose (staff writer) “MF Raises Russian Growth Forecast to 4% term,” http://www.praguepost.com/business/7900-oil-price-spikes-are- on Higher Crude Prices,” Apr 17, 2012. Accessed Apr 19, 2012 at short-term. html. "The market with oil is global, so if there is any big http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-17/imf-raises-russian-growth- disruption, there could be serious trouble," said Petr Lang, program director forecast-to-4-on-higher-crude-prices.html. Growth in the CIS, a grouping of for Prague Security Studies Institute. "Spare capacities are pretty low, and former Soviet republics, is forecast to slow to 4.25 percent in 2012, from 5 there are no big alternatives, so I think we will be competing with each percent last year, according to the IMF. A possible escalation of the other for supplies from Western Africa or from Russia." European debt crisis also poses risks to Russia’s financial industry, it said. “Distress in a systemically important euro area bank could cause an abrupt 1086. Alexei Mikhailov (staff writer) “Russian economy on feet of clay,” Mar. 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at http://en.gazeta.ru/opinions/ withdrawal of funding and raise the likelihood of banking sector distress in Russia,” the IMF said. 2012/03/27/a_4107689.shtml. The revenues from the oil and gas industry are approximately half of Russia's budget. Oil and gas exports last year 1094. RT.com, “Oil prices: The make or break of the Russian economy - were 69% of all Russian exports. Imagine a nightmare scenario for a World Bank,” Apr. 3, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at second: all of these revenues are gone. The budget deficit would total 10% http://rt.com/business/news/world-bank-report-russia-543/. In 2011 the of GNP. We would have to cut budget expenses in half or inflation would Russian budget turned in a surplus thanks to surging oil prices and moderate grow to 30% - 50% a year. The current trade balance surplus of almost $200 spending. But the World Bank expects the budget to turn to a deficit in 2012 bln would turn into a trade balance deficit of $150 bln. The Ruble exchange as spending on extra-budgetary funds and social policy is projected to jump value would fall two- or threefold. It would be a catastrophe for Russia. All from 5.8% of GDP in 2011 to 7.5% of GDP in 2013. our relative prosperity is based on oil and gas. But it wasn't always like this. 1095. RT.com, “Oil prices: The make or break of the Russian economy - 1087. Alex Steffler (staff writer) “What Russian papers say,” March 27, World Bank,” Apr. 3, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at http://en.ria.ru/papers/20120327/ http://rt.com/business/news/world-bank-report-russia-543/. The World Bank 172420288.html. Russia’s dependence on oil has been growing in recent estimates Russia’s economy will slowdown from 4.3% growth in 2011 to years, as the non-oil-and-gas deficit rose from 4.8 percent of GDP in 2008 3.5% in 2012 amid recession in Europe and elsewhere, before picking up to 9.4 percent in 2011. The growing government spending has been largely again in 2013. But the growth in 2013 is likely to be 3.9% weighted by a financed by the oil and gas export revenues, which in turn depend on the correction in oil prices ant tightening of the labor market. “The fact the global oil price. According to S&P experts, a $10 cut in oil prices sends euro-zone is in recession means the external environment is more difficult Russia’s revenues down by 1.4 percent of GDP. for Russia,” says Mr Richter. “And that’s one factor why we think the growth would ease somewhat comparing it to last year in Russia”.
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1096. Andrew E. Kramer (staff writer) “Russian Economy Slow to Recover, 1105. Associated Press, “Sunnier Outlook for World Economy,” Apr. 17, World Bank Says,” March 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at 2012. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at www.nytimes.com/2012/04/18/business/ http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/28/business/global/russian-economy - global/imf-raises-global-forecast-for-growth.html. In the United States, slow-to-recover-world-bank-says.html. A number of factors are weakening consumers are spending more, business investment has grown and the job the Russian economy, the World Bank said: The aging population, market has shown “signs of life,” the report says. unproductive workers, and business executives who are reluctant to invest over the long term, fearful of risk in general but with specific concerns 1106. CNBC.com, “World economy fragile, faces "uneasy calm:" IMF,” about Russia. The report called low capital investment a particular concern. Apr. 17, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at www.cnbc.com/id/47072866. The IMF lifted its forecast for the United States to 2.1 percent this year, up Russia is spending on factory equipment, trucks and airplanes at a level from 1.8 percent in January. For 2013, it nudged up the forecast to 2.4 typical of more developed economies like Germany. percent from 2.2 percent. It sees unemployment this year holding at its 1097. Andrew E. Kramer (staff writer) “Russian Economy Slow to Recover, current level of 8.2 percent and inching down in 2013 to 7.9 percent. World Bank Says,” March 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at 1107. CNBC.com, “World economy fragile, faces "uneasy calm:" IMF,” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/28/business/global/russian-economy - Apr. 17, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at www.cnbc.com/id/47072866. slow-to-recover-world-bank-says.html. High oil prices have obscured these economic vulnerabilities. Russia had a budget surplus equivalent to 0.8 Global growth is slowly improving as the U.S. recovery gains traction and dangers from Europe recede, but risks remain high and the situation is very percent of gross domestic product last year. But the structural problems fragile, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. pose a challenge for Mr. Putin, who will be inaugurated to a new six-year term as president in May. “On a closer examination, the country’s economic 1108. Randal O'Toole (senior fellow @ CATO Institute) “Rules for situation reveals a number of weaknesses,” Kaspar Richter, the bank’s chief Infrastructure Stimulus,” Feb. 16, 2009. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at economist for Russia, said about the report, a quarterly analysis of the http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/rules-infrastructure-stimulus. Russian economy. The Park Service wants to build and rebuild housing for its employees. The Forest Service proposes to remove excess fuels from private forestlands. 1098. Andrew E. Kramer (staff writer) “Russian Economy Slow to Recover, The Anchorage transit system promises to create 12 jobs at a cost of World Bank Says,” March 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at $729,000 each. Amtrak wants $30 billion to $40 billion to build a new high- http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/28/business/global/russian-economy - slow-to-recover-world-bank-says.html. The slower growth in Russia is even speed rail line from New York to Washington. Even a trillion-dollar infrastructure bill won't cover more than a small fraction of these wish lists more remarkable in light of expectations economists had for the country just from the states, let alone the current $50 billion. a few years ago. Since the economic crisis, Russia’s long-term trajectory has departed from expectations far more starkly than countries it is often 1109. Ronald Utt (Senior Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation) March 22, compared with, like China, India and Brazil. 2010. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/ 03/infrastructure-bank-proposals-rely-on-backdoor-deficit-spending. As 1099. Scott Rose (staff writer) “MF Raises Russian Growth Forecast to 4% currently written, the legislation to create a federal infrastructure bank on Higher Crude Prices,” Apr 17, 2012. Accessed Apr 19, 2012 at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-17/imf-raises-russian-growth- would lead to an outcome similar to South Carolina's, making it little more than a backdoor mechanism for the deficit/taxpayer financing of forecast-to-4-on-higher-crude-prices.html. Slower investment following a transportation projects. Congress should instead develop legislation to surge last year may cut expansion to 3.4 percent in 2012, from an earlier forecast 3.7 percent, the Economy Ministry said this month. Average prices create a real infrastructure bank whose assets match liabilities and whose earnings and debt service came from tolls and other user fees earned on for Urals crude will be $115 a barrel this year, more than earlier estimated, financially sustainable investments. the ministry said. While higher crude prices are currently buffering Russia’s economy, it remains exposed to deteriorating conditions in export markets, 1110. Jonathan Masters (staff writer) “The Budget Deficit and U.S. the IMF said. Competitiveness,” May 6, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at http://www.cfr.org/economics/budget-deficit-us-competitiveness/p24910. 1100. Andrew E. Kramer (staff writer) “Russian Economy Slow to Recover, Most economists fear that large budget deficits and growing debt poses a World Bank Says,” March 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 19, 2012 at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/28/ business/global/russian-economy - considerable threat to U.S. global economic competitiveness. Maya MacGuineas of the New America Foundation suggests the government slow-to-recover-world-bank-says.html. Russia is rebounding from the needs a dramatic shift from a consumption-oriented budget to one centered global recession more slowly than other developing countries despite high oil prices, according to a report Tuesday by the World Bank that hints at on investment, including R&D and human capital. The Peterson Institute's C. Fred Bergsten says an "early correction" is necessary to prevent problems awaiting Vladimir V. Putin as he assumes his third term as investment-killing interest rate hikes and an inopportune rise in the dollar’s president. exchange rate. CFR's Sebastian Mallaby says ongoing deficits may reduce 1101. Daniel Mitchell (Senior Fellow, Cato Institute) ““The Budget Deficit the willingness of major investors to buy and hold U.S. Treasuries, pushing and U.S. Competitiveness,” May 6, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at up interest rates and threatening the dollar's reserve currency status. Daniel http://www.cfr.org/economics/budget-deficit-us-competitiveness/p24910. Mitchell of the Cato Institute asserts the best way to control red ink is to cap The good news is that the deficit situation will get a bit better in coming the rise of federal spending and allow revenue growth from the economic years. Even modest growth rates will cause revenues to climb (that's the recovery to "catch up." The Economist's Greg Ip advocates a "medium-term kind of tax increase nobody opposes). Indeed, revenues will soon be above plan" that includes a reform of the tax system and, possibly, raising the their long-run average, as a share of economic output. retirement age. 1102. Ezra Klein (staff writer) “The budget deficit is the least of my 1111. C. Fred Bergsten (Director, Peterson Institute for International worries,” Apr. 6, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at Economics) “The Budget Deficit and U.S. Competitiveness,” May 6, 2011. http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/the-budget-deficit-is- Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at http://www.cfr.org/economics/budget-deficit-us- the-least-of-my-worries/2012/04/06/gIQAwXAa0S_story.html. Inaction competitiveness/p24910. Early and effective correction of the budget deficit isn’t inevitable: Deficit reduction is an unusual issue in that both parties is critical to the global competitiveness of the U.S. economy. This is fundamentally agree on the goal, even if they don’t agree on how to achieve because there are only two possible financial consequences of our it. This week, for instance, President Obama and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) continuing to run deficits of more than $1 trillion annually as now projected traded barbs on how best to go about it. The same can’t be said for issues for the next decade or more. One is sky-high interest rates that would crowd such as catastrophic climate change or access to health insurance, about out private investment. The other is huge borrowing from the rest of the which the two parties disagree on whether there’s even a problem that needs world that would push the exchange rate of the dollar so high as to price federal action. U.S. products out of international markets. Either outcome would severely undermine U.S. global competitiveness. 1103. Ezra Klein (staff writer) “The budget deficit is the least of my worries,” Apr. 6, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at 1112. Maya MacGuineas (President, Committee for a Responsible Federal http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/the-budget-deficit-is- Budget) “The Budget Deficit and U.S. Competitiveness,” May 6, 2011. the-least-of-my-worries/2012/04/06/gIQAwXAa0S_story.html. In part for Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at http://www.cfr.org/economics/budget-deficit-us- that reason, we don’t balance the budget for 70 years at a time. Indeed, we competitiveness/p24910. A balanced, multi-year fiscal consolidation plan usually don’t even balance it for 10 years at a time. Instead, we muddle needs to be a central part of a strategy to enhance U.S. growth and through, striking deals that are smaller than wonks like, but sufficient to competitiveness. If we fail to reduce our borrowing needs, at some point keep us out of the woods. That’s what we did in the 1990s, which featured there will be upward pressure on interest rates, increasing the cost of capital deficit-reduction bills in 1991, 1993, 1995 and 1997. We’ll probably follow as well as the interest payments owed by the government, dampening a similar path in the decade to come. investment, and harming economic growth. This could come on gradually or in the form of a full-blown fiscal crisis. 1104. Simon Johnson (Professor of Entrepreneurship at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management) Apr. 5, 2012. “Is There a Fiscal Crisis in the 1113. Sebastian Mallaby (Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International United States?” http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/05 /is-there-a- Economics) ) “The Budget Deficit and U.S. Competitiveness,” May 6, fiscal-crisis-in-the-united-states/. But we do not have to pay down the debt. 2011. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at http://www.cfr.org/economics/budget- Investors around the world have chosen to buy United States government deficit-us-competitiveness/p24910. Sustained deficits do matter. They add debt, and they continue to regard it as a “safe asset” despite the continuing to the stock of national debt, driving up the cost of interest payments and low level of interest rates. Investors will hold the debt of a well-run draining the government of resources. company or government as long as they expect to receive interest payments – a very long time.
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1114. Sebastian Mallaby (Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International 1120. Zalmay Khalilzad, 2011 (former US ambassador to the United Economics) “The Budget Deficit and U.S. Competitiveness,” May 6, 2011. Nations, National Review, “The Economy and National Security.” February Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at http://www.cfr.org/economics/budget-deficit-us- 8, 2011. Online. Accessed May 4, 2011 at http://www.nationalreview.com competitiveness/p24910. Sustained U.S. deficits may also create doubts /articles/259024/economy-and-national-security-zalmay-khalilzad?page=1). about the U.S. commitment to repay creditors. The more the U.S. Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to government owes, the more tempting it is to reduce the value of those the United States’ position as global leader. While the United States suffers obligations via inflation or a depreciating dollar. The fear that U.S. officials from fiscal imbalances and low economic growth, the economies of rival will succumb to these temptations, justified or not, may dampen investors' powers are developing rapidly. The continuation of these two trends could willingness to hold U.S. Treasuries, threatening the dollar's reserve currency lead to a shift from American primacy toward a multi-polar global system, status. At some unpredictable point, investor jitters could spark a rush for leading in turn to increased geopolitical rivalry and even war among the the exit, driving U.S. interest rates up and causing the dollar to fall sharply. great powers. 1115. Norman Ornstein (resident fellow at the American Enterprise 1121. Chris Edwards (Director of Tax Policy Studies, CATO Institute) Institute) “Deficit Panel Could Change Economic World,” Sept. 14, 2011. “Federal Infrastructure Spending: How About This Boondoggle?” Aug. 31, Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at www.rollcall.com/issues/57_28/deficit_panel_ 2011. Retrieved, Apr. 21, 2012 at http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/federal- could_change_economic_world-208693-1.html. Lachman is one of the infrastructure-spending-how-about-this-boondoggle/. Billions of dollars of economists who say now is not the time for applying medium- or long-term infrastructure spending by the Bureau of Reclamation has gone into white fiscal reform to our short-term need to stimulate to avoid the worst case, elephant projects. Imagining that more federal infrastructure will be a which is more than a double-dip recession — it is a global depression. In an panacea for the economy is a liberal fairy tale, detached from the actual ideal world, we would couple sound short-term policy with a real experience of most federal agencies over the last century. commitment to longer-term debt reduction. 1122. CNBC.com, “World economy fragile, faces "uneasy calm:" IMF,” 1116. C. Fred Bergsten (Director, Peterson Institute for International Apr. 17, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at www.cnbc.com/id/47072866. Economics) “The Budget Deficit and U.S. Competitiveness,” May 6, 2011. The United States faces its own fiscal challenges, made worse by political Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at http://www.cfr.org/economics/budget-deficit-us- fights that have delayed work on crafting a medium-term plan to reduce its competitiveness/p24910. The saving rate of the U.S. private sector, despite budget deficit. If tax cuts expire at the end of this year and planned budget modest recovery from its rock-bottom lows prior to the recent crisis, is far cuts kick in, the United States will face an abrupt fiscal tightening. "Such too meager to finance enough investment to grow U.S. productivity and massive adjustment could significantly undermine the economic recovery," economic output at an acceptable rate. Government deficits anywhere near the IMF said. current levels tap such a large share of this pool of funds that they starve the 1123. Simon Johnson (Professor of Entrepreneurship at the M.I.T. Sloan capital needs of productive enterprise. Elimination of the fiscal imbalance, School of Management) Apr. 5, 2012. “Is There a Fiscal Crisis in the and preferably the maintenance of a modest surplus, is imperative to avoid further severe deterioration of the international economic position of the United States?” http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/05 /is-there-a- fiscal-crisis-in-the-united-states/. But much more of the increase in the United States. deficit was because of tax cuts under George W. Bush, Medicare Part D 1117. C. Fred Bergsten (Director, Peterson Institute for International (which expanded coverage for prescription medicines) and – most of all – Economics) “Why the U.S. Needs to Cut the Deficit,” July 21, 2011. the financial crisis that brought down the economy and sharply reduced tax Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at http://www.americanfuture.net/think- revenue starting in September 2008. Our modern debt surge is much more tanks/council-on-foreign-relations /2011-07-21-c-fred-bergsten-why-the-u- about declining federal government revenue than it is about runaway s-needs-to-cut-the-deficit/. There are a whole variety of features that spending. If you believe strongly that our fiscal issues are primarily about undermine the United States in the world, and, therefore, our foreign policy “runaway spending,” please read our book. and our national security. If the Europeans get their act together, they’ll start to look better. But even if the Europeans don’t, the continued rise of 1124. Associated Press, “Sunnier Outlook for World Economy,” Apr. 17, China in particular–but the emerging markets more broadly–will just be 2012. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at www.nytimes.com/2012/04/18/ business/global/imf-raises-global-forecast-for-growth.html. The magnified if the United States seems to be impotent in dealing with its own organization praised European leaders for bulking up its bailout fund and problems. The emerging markets are growing three times as fast as we are; they are already half the world economy. Their share is growing 2 or 3 taking other steps to address the crisis. The 17 member nations of the European Union that use the euro currency should emerge from a shallow percent each year, [and] in the future, they will be two-thirds of the world recession later this year, the fund said. The I.M.F. said the European debt economy. And the adverse impact that will have on our image, our share of the world economy, our clout in the world–all of that gets magnified to the crisis continues to be the biggest threat to the global economy. extent that we’re unwilling, or unable, to take responsible actions to put our 1125. CNBC.com, “World economy fragile, faces "uneasy calm:" IMF,” own house in order. Apr. 17, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at http://www.cnbc.com/id/47072866. Despite the improvement, the fate of 1118. C. Fred Bergsten (Director, Peterson Institute for International Economics) “Why the U.S. Needs to Cut the Deficit,” July 21, 2011. the United States remains deeply intertwined with that of the euro zone, where renewed problems could rob 1.5 percentage points from the outlook. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at http://www.americanfuture.net/think- "A flare-up in the euro area from increased sovereign and bank stress could tanks/council-on-foreign-relations /2011-07-21-c-fred-bergsten-why-the-u- s-needs-to-cut-the-deficit/. The indirect effect–and that may even be more easily undermine confidence in the U.S. corporate sector and thereby squeeze investment and demand, undermining growth," the IMF said. powerful — is related to the image of the United States’ ability to address what’s obviously a crucial national problem: an apparent unwillingness to 1126. Dana Rubinstein, “When is Obama going to have his Eisenhower get our house in order and curtail our appetite for excessive government moment?” Mar. 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at expenditure; our unwillingness to tax ourselves to an extent required to pay http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2012/03/5524547/when- for at least the large bulk of our own spending; and a revealed preference to obama-going-have-his-eisenhower-moment. At the moment, it can safely be keep borrowing from the rest of the world. said that building support for increased transportation spending is not the president's top priority, as he heads into a general election with the economy 1119. C. Fred Bergsten (Director, Peterson Institute for International just showing signs of recovery. Infrastructure funding—and what were once Economics) “Why the U.S. Needs to Cut the Deficit,” July 21, 2011. packaged as stimulus projects, generally—have taken a back seat to, say, Retrieved Apr. 21, 2012 at http://www.americanfuture.net/think- tanks/council-on-foreign-relations /2011-07-21-c-fred-bergsten-why-the-u- the price of gas and, by extension, the conspicuously expanded drive for domestic energy resources. s-needs-to-cut-the-deficit/. They are ahead of us in the policy cycle. They have begun to tighten their fiscal policies–even Germany and the UK, not 1127. Dana Rubinstein, “When is Obama going to have his Eisenhower just the weak sisters. The European Central Bank has begun to tighten moment?” Mar. 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at monetary policies, has raised interest rates twice, clearly intends to do so http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2012/03/5524547/when- more. If [Europe] can get its current debt crises behind it and resume a obama-going-have-his-eisenhower-moment. The president, at least modicum of growth on par with ours, the world could turn in favor of the rhetorically, recognizes that. He's proposed a half-trillion-dollar, six-year euro. And that could precipitate a substantial move out of the dollar, which transportation plan. And he’s suggested a $50 billion infrastructure bank would put a lot of pressure on our interest rates, our treasury securities that would leverage private funding. As of now, they're still just proposals. markets, even our inflation rates–and through that, our economy as a whole. “So far he hasn’t really put his political capital behind it because he has To delay [a comprehensive deficit-reduction package] substantially further other priorities,” said Schank. is quite risky, both in terms of the economic impact–it impacts our own economy–and through that, and related closely to it, our status in the world. 1128. Dana Rubinstein, “When is Obama going to have his Eisenhower moment?” Mar. 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2012/03/5524547/when- obama-going-have-his-eisenhower-moment. The lesson that Obama and the administration seem to have taken from the times they have pushed hard for spending on big transportation-infrastructure projects is that they're a tougher sell than expected, or at least that voters don't necessarily see them as the economic generators they eventually become.
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1129. Todd Zwillich (staff writer) “House GOP Unveils 5-Year, $260 1136. Yonah Freemark (staff writer) “President Obama Proposes Major Transpo Bill,” Jan. 31, 2012. Retrieved Apr 23, 2012 at Funding Increases, Reorganization for Nation’s Transport,” Feb. 14, 2011. http://transportationnation.org/2012/01/31/house-gop-unveils-5-year-260- Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at http://www.thetransportpolitic. com/2011/02/14/ transpo-bill/. Congress hasn’t approved a “permanent” transportation bill president-obama-proposes-major-funding-increases-reorganization-for- since 2005, and if this one succeeds it will be the first successful bid nations-transport/. In the president’s proposed Fiscal Year 2012 budget, following eight temporary extensions. But while groups representing the transportation spending increased significantly even as appropriations for construction industry, trucking and other interests are supportive, most other programs are reduced. Yet GOP opposition in the House of Republicans and Democrats are bound to clash in an environment where Representatives, focused on cutting government investment, will pose a parties have been more interested in showing their differences than their major obstacle. ability to compromise. 1137. Yonah Freemark (staff writer) “President Obama Proposes Major 1130. Joe Rothstein (staff writer) “An Infrastructure Bank: Democrats and Funding Increases, Reorganization for Nation’s Transport,” Feb. 14, 2011. Republicans Both Like It. Why Won't They Create It And Put Millions of Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at http://www.thetransportpolitic. com/2011/02/14/ People to Work?” Jan. 30, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at president-obama-proposes-major-funding-increases-reorganization-for- http://uspolitics.einnews.com/column/78189117/an-infrastructure-bank- nations-transport/. The President’s budget, however, is only a suggestion: It democrats-and-republicans-both-like-it-why-won-t-they-create-it-and-put- is up to the Congress to ultimately determine how revenues are collected millions-of-people-to-work. That’s why it’s baffling that the federal and how spending is distributed. In that context, the House Republican government hasn’t launched a major initiative to lure that capital to help caucus’ adamant opposition to increased spending on infrastructure will restore what everyone concedes is the nation’s tattered infrastructure. make passing anything remotely familiar to Mr. Obama’s proposal Measures to set up public-private financing partnerships are languishing in extremely difficult. The House GOP is already planning to strip funding Congress, victims of political gridlock, even though many heavyweight from high-speed rail and other transportation projects in FY 2011. With the political figures and influential lobbying groups are big fans of such right-wing party convinced that it has a winning electoral position in its partnerships opposition to transit, and especially high-speed rail, can Democrats force through an FY 2012 budget and a transportation bill that prioritizes them? 1131. Mannie Garcia (staff writer) “House Republicans want $260 billion for infrastructure,” Jan. 30, 2012. Retrieved Apr 23, 2012 at 1138. Dina Gusovsky (staff writer) “Could the US lose big by not tapping http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/31/us-usa-congress-infrastructure- into the Russian market?” Apr. 10, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23 2012 at idUSTRE80U03Z20120131. Mica's proposal is far less ambitious than http://www.examiner.com/article/could-the-us-lose-big-by-not-tapping- infrastructure measures floated by Obama that went no where in Congress. into-the-russian-market. Though the US Chamber of Commerce declared In his State of the Union address last week, Obama proposed that a portion lifting such restrictions its main priority this year, political infighting could of money saved from war spending be used for infrastructure development. keep the US from doing so. Quantum Networks CEO and Founder of Democrats unsuccessfully pushed a similar idea last fall as part of deficit TrendingHill.com, Ari Zoldan, says that a substantial amount of money reduction. could be lost if the U.S. chose not to grant Russia Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR): “Should the government not extend PNTR to the 1132. Julie Sneider (staff writer) “Rail News: Federal Legislation & Russian Federation, the U.S. will face 'discriminatory tariffs' that will put Regulation,” Nov. 18, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at them at a disadvantage against competitors in other major trading nations, http://www.progressiverailroading.com/federal_legislation_regulation/news /House-Republicans-announce-plans-for-transportation-reauthorization-bill- another potential blow to the already struggling U.S. economy. Extending PNTR to Russia, on the other hand, would benefit the U.S. in allowing it -28912#. Mica said he hopes to mark up a transportation bill in the coming access to a largely untapped foreign market ripe for American exports.” weeks that would “significantly streamline the process for projects by cutting red tape and unnecessary federal paperwork.” The measure also 1139. Dina Gusovsky (staff writer) “Could the US lose big by not tapping would consolidate duplicative federal transportation programs; provide into the Russian market?” Apr. 10, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23 2012 at flexibility, authority and responsibility to state and local governments to http://www.examiner.com/article/could-the-us-lose-big-by-not-tapping- move transportation projects forward; and increase the ability to leverage into-the-russian-market. Despite all this, Zoldan says it is still in America’s financial resources and encourage more private sector building best interest to try to tap into Russia’s consumer market: “The benefits of infrastructure, he said. However, Democrats were less than enthusiastic enjoying full access to the Russian market largely outweigh the potential about the GOP plan. “The proposal by Republican leadership would mire a risks, and therefore the U.S. ought not to allow partisan politics to deter it very popular surface transportation bill in controversy and it would directly from normalized trade with Russia, and providing a potential outlet to assist threaten many thousands of fishing, tourism and recreation-related jobs,” in the revitalization of the American economy” said Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), who chairs the Senate Committee on 1140. Dina Gusovsky (staff writer) “Could the US lose big by not tapping Environment and Public Works, adding that financial experts have told her into the Russian market?” Apr. 10, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23 2012 at the proposal would fall billions short in what’s needed to fund the nation’s transportation infrastructure needs. http://www.examiner.com/article/could-the-us-lose-big-by-not-tapping- into-the-russian-market. According to the Wall Street Journal and 1133. Dana Rubinstein, “When is Obama going to have his Eisenhower economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, US moment?” Mar. 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at exports to Russia could nearly double over the next five years if the http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2012/03/5524547/when- restrictions were lifted. obama-going-have-his-eisenhower-moment. Ask a transportation expert 1141. Americans for Tax Reform, “An Antiquated Amendment: Jackson- who the last great transportation president was, and you're not bound to find Vanik Needs Repeal,” Apr. 3, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at much agreement. Dwight D. Eisenhower, who in the 1950s championed the creation of the Interstate System, is a common choice, though Jimmy Carter http://atr.org/antiquated-amendment-jackson-vanik-needs-repeal-a6827. Last month, the Senate Finance Committee held a preliminary hearing on merits mention for deregulating the trucking industry and airline and air- repealing the Jackson-Vanik Amendment and establishing Permanent freight transportation, and Ronald Reagan, for raising the gas tax and dedicating part of it to mass transit. On the subject of the current president, Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with Russia. Absent repeal, the Jackson- Vanik Amendment would put American businesses at a distinct there’s more of a consensus. One point of agreement is that he has talked a disadvantage vis-à-vis foreign competitors in the Russian market. Grover great game, but has been unable to do much to deliver. Another is that he might be able to do more if he gets a second term, but that even then it Norquist, President of Americans for Tax Reform, has written a letter to the United States Senate urging the repeal of the Jackson-Vanik Amendment would depend on whether the upcoming election produces a Congress that and the passage of PNTR with Russia. is, one way or another, less hostile to his agenda. 1134. Dana Rubinstein, “When is Obama going to have his Eisenhower 1142. Americans for Tax Reform, “An Antiquated Amendment: Jackson- moment?” Mar. 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at Vanik Needs Repeal,” Apr. 3, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at http://atr.org/antiquated-amendment-jackson-vanik-needs-repeal-a6827. http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2012/03/5524547/when- Permanent Normal Trade Relations with Russia would open up new obama-going-have-his-eisenhower-moment. But the Republican-controlled House is looking to cut transportation spending, not increase it. It will be all markets for U.S. manufacturing and agricultural products while providing consumers with lower priced products at home. Repealing the Jackson- the president can do to get them to agree to pass the Senate's version of this Vanik Amendment and establishing PNTR with Russia has the potential to year's transportation-spending bill, which more or less extends the status quo. double or triple U.S. exports to Russia, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. With the world’s eleventh largest economy and more than 140 1135. Dana Rubinstein, “When is Obama going to have his Eisenhower million consumers, Russia has already established itself as a lucrative moment?” Mar. 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2012 at market for a broad range of goods and services. Demand for quality http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2012/03/5524547/when- products will only increase after Russia joins the WTO. Russia is the last obama-going-have-his-eisenhower-moment. House Republicans in major economy to join the WTO making this an opportunity America particular have staked out a radical position on infrastructure funding, going cannot afford to squander. A recent study conducted by the Heritage so far as to propose eliminating mass-transit financing entirely from the gas Foundation demonstrates that nations with low trade barriers are more tax. In fact, even if Obama wins a second term, his ability to do anything prosperous. Policymakers should be mindful of this as they seek pro-growth much more than hold the line on current spending levels would probably be solutions to America’s economic challenges. contingent on his party winning both houses of Congress.
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1143. Saul Loeb, 3/28/2012 (staff writer, “Anti-Russian Amendment Now 1148. Robert Creamer, “Why GOP Collapse on the Payroll Tax Could be a Headache for U.S.,” http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20120328/172439008.html). Turning Point Moment,” Dec. 23, 2011, Retrieved Apr. 25, 2012 at Economic sanctions against Russia imposed by the United States in 1974 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/why-gop-collapse-on-the- could backfire on America this year, but are likely to stay in place because p_b_1167491.html). Strength and victory are enormous political assets. of persistent political and ideological grudges between the two Cold War Going into the New Year, they now belong to the President and the rivals, analysts said. The Jackson-Vanik amendment was defunct in practice Democrats. One of the reasons why the debt ceiling battle inflicted political over the last two decades, but things got tricky after Russia completed its damage on President Obama is that it made him appear ineffectual - a 18-year-long path to the World Trade Organization (WTO) last year, with powerful figure who had been ensnared and held hostage by the Lilliputian more than a little help from the White House. WTO rules ban formal trade pettiness of hundreds of swarming Tea Party ideological zealots. In the last restrictions such as the Jackson-Vanik amendment, which means the United few months -- as he campaigned for the American Jobs Act -- he has shaken States could face economic sanctions from Moscow and pressure from free of those bonds. Now voters have just watched James Bond or Indiana WTO once Russia completes the treaty's ratification, expected this summer. Jones escape and turn the tables on his adversary. Great stories are about a Elections First "Russia has no practical interest in canceling the Jackson- protagonist who meets and overcomes a challenge and is victorious. The Vanik amendment," Konstantin Kosachyov, then-State Duma lawmaker capitulation of the House Tea Party Republicans is so important because it with United Russia and deputy head of the international affairs committee at feels like the beginning of that kind of heroic narrative. Even today most the lower chamber, said in late February. "Common sense predicts it will be Americans believe that George Bush and the big Wall Street Banks - not by canceled this summer. But it may become a hostage of the election President Obama -- caused the economic crisis. Swing voters have never campaign in the United States," Kosachyov said. The administration of U.S. lost their fondness for the President and don't doubt his sincerity. But they President Barack Obama is making a push to have Congress formally repeal had begun to doubt his effectiveness. They have had increasing doubts that the Jackson-Vanik amendment in regard to Russia, but this is unlikely to Obama was up to the challenge of leading them back to economic happen before the U.S. presidential elections in November, according to prosperity. The narrative set in motion by the events of the last several Russian and American pundits contacted by RIA Novosti. Kosachyov's weeks could be a turning point in voter perception. It could well begin to prediction was echoed by Angela Stent of Georgetown University and convince skeptical voters that Obama is precisely the kind of leader they Valery Garbuzov of the Russian Institute of the United States and Canada, thought he was back in 2008 - a guy with the ability to lead them out of both of whom said the Jackson-Vanik is expected to stay in place until the adversity - a leader with the strength, patience, skill, will and resoluteness to U.S. presidential elections. lead them to victory. That now contrasts with the sheer political incompetence of the House Republican Leadership that allowed themselves 1144. Saul Loeb, 3/28/2012 (staff writer, “Anti-Russian Amendment Now to be cornered and now find themselves in political disarray. And it Headache for U.S.,” http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20120328/172439008.html). certainly contrasts with the political circus we have been watching in the The White House opposes linking the Jackson-Vanik amendment with any other legislation on human rights in Russia, McFaul said earlier this month, Republican Presidential primary campaign. 3). This victory will inspire the dispirited Democratic base. Inspiration is the feeling of empowerment - the The Cable foreign policy blog reported. But the Republicans, who control feeling that you are part of something larger than yourself and can the House of Representatives, will not cave in easily even if the decision to keep Jackson-Vanik in place has "more political meaning than common personally play a significant role in achieving that goal. It comes from feeling that together you can overcome challenges and win. Nothing will sense," said Valery Garbuzov of the Institute of the United States and do more to inspire committed Democrats than the sight of their leader -- Canada. "They have a negative attitude toward Russia and see Obama as playing too soft, giving concessions to Russia that it uses to get stronger," President Obama - out maneuvering the House Republicans and forcing them into complete capitulation. The events of the last several weeks will Garbuzov said. Stent of Georgetown University said the pro-Jackson-Vanik send a jolt of electricity through the Progressive community. The right is lobby in Congress is in fact a bipartisan group. counting on Progressives to be demoralized and dispirited in the coming 1145. Saul Loeb, 3/28/2012 (staff writer, “Anti-Russian Amendment Now election. The President's victory on the payroll tax and unemployment will Headache for U.S.,” http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20120328/172439008.html). make it ever more likely that they will be wrong. 4). When you have them U.S. ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, has called repeal of the on the run, that's the time to chase them. The most important thing about amendment a top priority for the White House this year. He has repeatedly the outcome of the battle over the payroll tax and unemployment is that it spoken against Jackson-Vanik, including in an interview with Voice of shifts the political momentum at a critical time. Momentum is an America last week. The Obama administration could attempt swaying pro- independent variable in any competitive activity - including politics. In a Jackson-Vanik congressmen one by one or try to get the business lobby to football or basketball game you can feel the momentum shift. The tide of convince the legislators of the damages U.S. businesses faces in Russia over battle is all about momentum. The same is true in politics. And in politics it the amendment, Garbuzov said. But neither strategy would yield fast is even more important because the "spectators" are also the players - the results, he said. voters. People follow - and vote -- for winners. The bandwagon effect is enormously important in political decision-making. Human beings like to 1146. Saul Loeb, 3/28/2012 (staff writer, “Anti-Russian Amendment Now Headache for U.S.,” http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20120328/172439008.html). travel in packs. They like to be at the center of the mainstream. Momentum shifts affect their perceptions of the mainstream. For the last two years, the The administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is making a push to right wing has been on the offensive. Its Tea Party shock troops took the have Congress formally repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment in regard to Russia, but this is unlikely to happen before the U.S. presidential elections battle to Democratic Members of Congress. In the Mid-Terms Democrats were routed in district after district. Now the tide has turned. And when the 1147. Alexander Gasyuk, 3/16/2012 (staff writer, “Trade hearings renew tide turns -when you have them on the run - that's the time to chase them. debates on Russia, http://rbth.ru/articles/2012/03/16/jackson- vanik_trade_hearings_renew_debates_on_russia_15086.html). Presidential 1149. Associated Press, “Cost could be high for US-Russia relations in politics could also delay resolution of the issue. Mankoff said Republicans winning repeal of decades-old trade restrictions,” Mar. 27, 2012. Retrieved Apr. 25, 2012 at http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/policy/cost- have no incentive to repeal Jackson-Vanik now. “But at the end of the day I could-be-high-for-us-russia-relations-in-winning-repeal-of-decades-old- think economic sense will prevail and perhaps sometime after the November elections PNTR [permanent normal trade relations] will be trade-restrictions/2012/03/27/gIQAWo7bdS_story.html. The Obama administration wants Congress to remove Soviet-era trade restrictions that provided to Russia,” he said. have been a sore point in U.S.-Russia relations for decades. But the conditions lawmakers are demanding to make the change may only worsen America’s increasingly shaky relations with Moscow. Republicans and Democrats are trying to tie the easing of the so-called Jackson-Vanik restrictions to a measure imposing sanctions against Russian officials linked to human rights abuses. That would infuriate Russia and would be the latest hitch in what administration officials consider a major foreign policy success: improved relations with Russia after a sharp downturn during the Bush administration. They call it the “reset.” 1150. Srdja Trifkovic, (Executive Director of The Lord Byron Foundation for Balkan Studies) “US, Europe and Russia Face Similar Challenges in the Years to Come,” Retrieved Apr. 25, 2012 at www.prnewswire.com/news- releases/us-europe-and-russia-face-similar-challenges-in-the-years-to-come- 139682223.html. Sooner or later, however, U.S. foreign policy will collide with reality-Iraq and Afghanistan appear not to have been sufficient wake- up calls-and Washington, shorn of its ideological blinkers, will finally embrace the foreign policy imperative of the 21st century: Solidarity and strategic cooperation between the United States, Europe and Russia on the basis of their shared moral, intellectual and cultural foundations, as they face similar challenges in the years to come."