Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11Th to 20Th April 2021

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL

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ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 77

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11th to 20th April 2021

th 11 April 2021

© NOCC April 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC.

ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°77 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11th to 20th April 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021. This dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the Guinea High Savannah zone. At the same time, the Bimodal rainfall forest zone, the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone and the Highlands zone will be under the influence of the monsoon.

II. Forecast Summary

II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Tibati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa Region; - Yaounde, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre Region - Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla and Belabo in the East Region;

- Munkep, Furu Awa and Ako in the North West Region; Littoral Region - Loum, Melong, Mbanga, Penja, Douala in the . NB1: This dekad from the 11th to 20th April 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heat waves (number of successive days with temperatures above 30°C) in various localities in the Far North and North regions.

II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: Adamawa Region; - Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga, in the - Garoua-Boulai, in the East Region. NB2: This dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities of the Adamawa (Tignere, Ngoundere, Meiganga) and East (Garoua- Boulai) regions, due to a significant decrease in minimum temperatures.

II.1.3. Thermal Differences This dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 will be marked by significant daily temperature differences (ranging between 20 and 30°C) in Dembo in the North region.

II.2. For Precipitation The period from 11th to 20th April 2021 will be marked by a return of normal rainfall amounts, after a significant decrease in rainfall during the dekads from 21st to 30th March and 1st to 10th April 2021, in the Mono-modal Rainfall Forest Zone, the Bimodal Rainfall Forest Zone, the Highlands Zone and the Guinean High Savannah Zone. The rest of the national territory, notably the North and Far North Regions and the northern part of the Adamawa Region, will be marked by the influence of the Harmattan.

NB3: This dekad, from 11th to 20th April 2021 corresponds to - the continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East regions); with a however high probability of recording rainfall disruptions (number of successive days without rain); - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and in the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions). With a however high probability of recording rainfall disruptions (number of successive days without rain); - to the extension of the dry season in the Guinean High Savannah Zone -a gradual beginning of the rainy season in the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region) -the extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone (Far North and North regions).

III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th April 2021

1) For precipitation

For the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021, we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North Regions), marked by an extreme scarcity of rainfall, high evapotranspiration and great aridity of the atmosphere due to the persistence of the Harmattan during this period. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone Rainfall amounts above those recorded in the said region during the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021. (b) (a) c) In the Bimodal rainfall forest zone -above average rainfall amounts recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Eseka, Bafia, Yaounde, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko; above average rainfall amounts around Mbalmayo in the Centre Region; - above average rainfall amounts recorded from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Sangmelima, Nyabizan, Lolodorf, Kribi, Campo, Ebolowa and Ambam; above average rainfall amounts in Djoum, Akom II and Zoetele in the South Region; - above average rainfall amounts recorded from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Mindourou, Garoua -Boulai, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that Betare-Oya, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, recorded during the period April 1-10, 2021 (a) Moloundou, Ngoyla and Belabo in the East Source: NOCC, April 2021 Region. d) In the High plateaux zone

- above average rainfall amounts recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 NB 5: For the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021, we expect: in Bafoussam, Dschang, Mbouda, Bangangte, Foumbot, Massagam, Koutaba, - a return to normal rainfall amounts in the Mono-modal Rainfall Foumban, Tonga and Makam; above Forest Zone, the Bimodal Rainfall Forest Zone, and the Highlands average rainfall amounts in Bazou, in the Zone, after the disruption observed during the last dekad; West Region; - above average rainfall amounts for the - a continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal Rainfall dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Ndop, Forest Zone (Centre, South and East Regions); Furu Awa, Fungom, Ako, Kumbo, Ndu, - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands Zone (West Fundong, Munkep and Nwa; above average and North-West Regions) and the Mono-modal Rainfall Forest in Bali, Santa, Wum, Benakuma in the North West Region.. Zone (Littoral and South-West Regions); - a gradual start of the rainy season in the Guinean high savannah e) In the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone zone - above average rainfall amounts recorded - an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone (Far during the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Limbe, Buea, Idenau, Dikome Balue, North and North Regions). Kumba, Mamfe and Eyumojock; above average in Mundemba, Muyuka, Tiko, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Fontem, in the South-West Region - above average rainfall amounts for the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Bare-Bakem, Edea, Loum, Melong, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral Region.

2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures -around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafoussam, Dschang, Mbouda, Based on the historical mean of maximum temperatures recorded Bazou, Bangangte, Foumbot, Massagam, Koutaba, Tonga and Makam; above the historical during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, notably mean in Foumban, in the West Region; 40.4°C in the Far North Region; 41.46°C in the North Region; 35.62°C in the Adamawa Region; 29.3°C in the Centre Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Nguti, 30.06°C in the South Region; 30.86°C in the East Region; Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Fontem, Ekok, Kumba, Mamfe and Eyumojock; below the historical 27.66°C in the West Region; 28°C in the North-West Region; mean in Buea, Idenau, Mundemba, Tiko and Limbe, in the South West Region;

29.63°C in the South-West Region and 28.71°C in the Littoral -around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Region, the following maximum temperatures are expected for the Nkongsamba, Mouanko, Dizangue Dibombari, Bare-Bakem and Edea; above the historical dekad from 11 to 20 April 2021: mean in Loum, Melong, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, in the Littoral Region. - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Maroua, Mora, Makari; around the historical mean in Mokolo, Kousseri, Yagoua, Kaele, Maga, Bogo, Waza and Mindif in the Far North Region - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Lagdo, Garoua, Guider and Dembo; below the historical mean in Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Poli, Touboro in the North Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tibati and Mbakaou; around the mean in Banyo; below the historicval mean in Ngaoundal, Meiganga, Tignere and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Eseka and Mbalmayo; above the historical mean in Bafia, Yaounde, (a) (b) Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre Region; - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua-Boulai and Moloundou; around the historical mean in Betare-Oya, Yokadouma and Batouri; above the historical mean in Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla and Belabo in the East Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Sangmelima, Nyabizan, Akom II, Kribi, Campo, Djoum, Ebolowa and Ambam; below the historical mean in Lolodorf in the South Region - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bali, Santa, Wum, Benakuma, Ndop, Fungom, Kumbo, Ndu, Fundong

and Nwa; above the mean in Munkep, Furu Awa and Ako in the Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the North West Region; same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, April 2021) 4

Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Bali, recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 April 2021, maximum Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Bamenda, Benakuma, Wum and Nwa in the North West temperatures for the dekad from 11 to 20 April 2021 we expect Region; maximum temperatures: - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Foumbot, st th - below the mean for the dekad from 1 to 10 April 2021 in Mora, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Dschang, Magba, Foumban, Bafang, Bangangte, Bazou Makary and Maroua; around the mean in Mokolo, Bogo, Waza, and Mbouda; and below the mean in Tonga and Makam, in the West Region Kousseri, Mindif, Maga, Bogo, Yagoua and Kaele in the Far North Region;

- around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Dembo, Lagdo, Garoua and Pitoa; below the mean in Poli, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire and Touboro in the North Region; - below the mean for the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Meiganga, Tignere, Banyo and Tibati in the Adamawa Region; - below the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Belabo and Ngoyla; around the mean in Moloundou, Yokadouma, Betare-Oya, Garoua-Boulai, Mindourou, Batouri, Bertoua, Lomie and Abong-Mbang, in the East Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th April (a) 2021 in Ngoro, Yoko and Eseka; below the mean in Deuk, (b) Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Mbandjock, Messondo, Nkoteng, Bafia, Yaounde, Mbalmayo and Obala in the Centre Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Zoetele, Djoum, Ebolowa, Kribi, Sangmelima, Nyabizan, Campo, Lolodorf, Akom II and Ambam in the South Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Fontem, Kumba, Mamfe and Eyumojock; below the mean in Ekang, Ekok, Buea, Idenau, Mundemba, Tiko and Limbe in the South-West Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Ngambe, Yingui, Ndom, Dizangue, Melong, Nkongsamba, Figure 3: Variation in average maximum temperatures for the dekad from 11th to 20th Bare-Bakem, Pouma, Manjo, Mbanga, Douala, Nyanon, Yabassi and April 2021 (b) compared to those recorded for the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 (a). Edea; below the mean in Ndokama, Mouanko and Loum in the Source: NOCC, April 2021 Littoral Region;

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include: -Tibati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa Region; -Yaounde, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre

Region;

-Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla and Belabo in the East Region; -Munkep, Furu Awa and Ako in the North West Region; -Loum, Melong, Mbanga, Penja and Douala in the Littoral Region.

b) For Minimum Temperatures -above the historical mean recorded during the period from 1979 to 2018 in Ako, Furu Awa, Esu Based on the historical average of minimum temperatures and Munkep; around the historical mean in Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda, Ndop, Wum and recorded from 1979 to 2018, notably 26.72°C in the Far North Benakuma in the North West Region; Region; 27.5°C in the North Region; 23.3°C in the Adamawa -above the historical mean recorded during the period from 1979 to 2018 in Bamusso Tiko, Region; 19°C in the Centre Region; 22°C in the South Limbe, Idenau, Buea, Nguti, Mamfe, Kumba, Mundemba, Fontem, Muyuka and Eyumojock in Region; 20.64°C in the East Region; 17.37°C in the West the South West Region; Region; 17°C in the North-West Region; 21.6°C in the South- -above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Douala, West Region and 20.5°C in the Littoral Region, for the dekad Mouanko, Edea, Dizangue, Manjo, Mbanga, Penja, Nkongsamba, Yabassi, Melong and Loum, from 11 to 20 April 2021, we expect minimum temperatures: in the Littoral Region.

-around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Makari, Kousseri, Kaele, Maga, Mindif, Yagoua, Mokolo; below the historical mean in Maroua, Waza and Mora in the Far North Region -around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Garoua, Dembo, Lagdo and Guider; below the historical mean in Poli, Touboro, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North Region; -above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Tibati, Mbakaou and Banyo; below the historical mean in Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa Region; (a) -above the historical mean recorded during the same period (b) from 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, Ayos, Eseka, Yoko, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Bafia, Obala, Mbalmayo and Yaounde in the Centre Region; -above the historical mean recorded during the period from 1979 to 2018 in Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Belabo, Betare Oya, Lomie, Moloundou, Ngoyla and Batouri; below the historical mean in Garoua-Boulai in the East Region; -above the historical mean during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Ambam, Nyabizan, Akom II, Campo, Kribi, Zoetele, Djoum, Lolodorf and Ebolowa in the South Region; -around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Foumbot, Bamendjing, Magba, Bafang, Bangangte and Bazou; above the historical mean in Foumban, Makam and Tonga in the West Figure 4: Variation in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (11-20 April 2021) Region; (b) compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 (a). Source: NOCC, April 2021

Based on the difference between the average minimum - around the mean recorded during the period from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Santa, Ndop, temperatures recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 April Nwa, Bamenda, Fundong, Kumbo, Benakuma and Wum in the North West Region; 2021, we expect minimum temperatures for the dekad from 11 - around the mean recorded during the period from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Bamusso, to 20 April 2021 to be: Mundemba, Kumba, Mamfe, Buea, Tiko, Muyuka, Idenau and Eyumojock; above the st th - above the mean recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 mean in Nguti in the South West Region. April 2021 in Mindif, Yagoua, Makari, Maroua, Bogo, Kaele, Maga, Kousseri, Waza, Mora and Mokolo in the Far North Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Garoua and Pitoa; above the mean in Lagdo, Guider, Dembo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Poli and Touboro in the North Region - around the mean recorded during the period from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Mbakaou, Tibati, Tignere and Banyo; above the mean in Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa Region; - above the mean recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 April 2021 in Bafia and Eseka; around the mean in Obala, Yoko, Monatele, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Akonolinga, Yaounde, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko and Mbandjock in the Centre Region; (a) (b) - around the mean recorded during the period from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Moloundou, Betare Oya, Garoua-Boulai, Abong- Mbang, Mindourou, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua and Lomie; above the mean in Ngoyla and Yokadouma in the East Region; - around the mean recorded during the period from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Ebolowa, Djoum, Ambam, Campo, Kribi, Akom II and Nyabizan; above the mean in Sangmelima, Lolodorf and Zoetele in the South Region; - around the mean recorded during the period from 1st to 10th April 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Bamendjing, Magba, Makam, Bafoussam, Bafang, Foumban, Foumbot, Mbouda and Tonga, in the West Region; - above the mean recorded during the period from 1st to 10th Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those April 2021 in Ndokama; around the mean in Edea, Mouanko, recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 (a). Dizangue, Douala, Loum, Penja, Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo Source: NOCC, April 2021 and Yabassi in the Littoral Region; 8

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include:

- Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa Region; - Garoua-Boulai in the East Region.

IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: • cases of loss of animals due to lightning discharge in the Centre, West, South West and A high risk of recording cases of: North West regions. • increased bush fires due to the dry season combined with the effect of dry winds and high • numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold prevailing in certain localities in the Far North and temperatures, resulting in the destruction of fields in the Far North, North and the northern North regions and the northern part of Adamawa region; part of the Adamawa regions; • a scarcity of pasture and water resources in the Far North, the North and the northern part • water stress, for vegetable and food crops in the Far North, North and the northern part of of Adamawa region. the Adamawa regions following the accentuation of the dryness; • increased attacks on cereal crops by insect pests in the Far North, North and the North d) In the water and energy sector: region s. A high risk of recording: -destruction of plantations in many localities in the Centre, East, South, South-West, Littoral, • a continuous drying up of water supply points due to drought and a continuous decrease in the water table in the Far North, North and northern part of the Adamawa Regions West and North-West Regions, due to heavy rains accompanied by strong winds - a high risk of recording a decrease in the volume of water in dams, water collection and treatment

NB 6: This period is suitable for the extension of sowing in the Bimodal Rainfall forest zone points in the Far North and North Regions - a high risk of falling electricity poles due to strong winds in the Bimodal Rainfall Forest Zone, (Centre, South and East regions), the Highlands zone (West and North-West regions) and the the Mono-modal Rainfall Forest Zone and the Highlands Zone. Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (South West and Littoral regions).

e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: b) In the health sector: A high risk of recording numerous cases of: A risk of recording cases of: - bush fires in many localities in the Far North, North and Adamawa Regions;  meningococcal meningitis, due to the severe dry season in the Far North, North and the - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to wildlife roaming outside reserves in search of northern part of the Adamawa regions, coupled with the increased dust in the air; water and food, in the Far North, North and Adamawa Regions;  water -borne diseases (typhoid, yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), following the scarcity and / - conflict between populations and certain wildlife species (Elephants, Lions etc.) in search of or poor quality of drinking water, in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; water and food, in the Far North, North and Adamawa Regions.  respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), following the A high risk of observing morning fog with a consequent high risk of traffic accidents in many dust increasingly present in the air in the Far North, North and the northern part of the localities in the Centre, South and East Regions (forest zone with bimodal rainfall), West and Adamawa regions; north-west (Highlands zone) and South-West (forest zone with mono-modal rainfall).  conjunctivitis due to the combined effect of heat, wind and dust in the air in the Far North, - A high risk of recording cases of floods in some localities in the Centre and South Regions ( North and the northern part of the Adamawa regions; Bimodal rainfall forest zone), the North-West and West Regions ( Highlands zone), the Littoral and South-West Regions ( Monomodal Rainfall Forest Zone);  general pathologies, due to the heat for people suffering from hypertension, obesity, women in - A high risk of recording cases of landslides in some localities in the North-West and West Regions menopause, people with diabetics, in the 05 Agro-ecological zones. (Highlands Zone), Littoral and South-West Regions (Monomodal Rainfall Forest Zone).  multiplication of malaria vector mosquitoes, in the. 05 Agro-ecological zones.

f) In the defence and security sector: c) For the livestock sector A risk of recording cases of: A high risk of recording cases of: - conflicts between cattle rearers and farmers in their search for water sources and food in the • a massive migration of transhumant herders in search of water points and pasture in the Far North, North and Adamawa regions. regions of the Far North, North and the northern parts of the Adamawa region; - conflicts between populations in search of water resources and food in the Far North, North • an increase in pastoralist-farmer conflicts and conflicts between pastoralists around water and Adamawa regions, due to the continuous drying up of water points; points, plains and lowlands in the regions of the Far North, the North, and the northern part of the - Cases of conflict between populations of the Far North, the North and the northern part of the Adamawa region, for access to limited water resources for various purposes (consumption, Adamawa region; irrigation, watering etc.).

st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 1 to 10 April 2021

High Guinean Mono-modal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 26.2 27.4 23.22 20.2 19 21 17.5 17 21.6 20.5

Trend forecasts Success rates of Forecasts (%) 83 81 81.51 80.4 79.2 83.1 83 81 81.51 85.6 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 40.33 41 35.8 32.2 30 30.2 27.6 28.5 28.83 28.5 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 85 82.9 80.1 81 81.51 85.6 81.51 85.6 79.2 83.1 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 0-60 61-81 82-101 102-121 122-200 201-210 211-240 241-260 261-300 301-350 2018(mm) Trend forecasts ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 100 100 98 100 100 100 98.6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: In the health sector, continue to Plan agricultural activities, especially in the sowing season by referring to the agricultural calendar developed by NOCC for the 2021 agricultural campaign.

In the health sector, continue to . raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); . avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; . dress warmly in localities experiencing decreased minimum temperatures during this period; . apply appropriate lubricants to nostrils or put on facemasks to reduce entry of dust particles; . encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; . strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases. . continue vaccination campaigns against various epidemics and pandemics.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected]