PACIFIC ECONOMIC BULLETIN Economic survey

An economic survey of

Colin S. Mellor

Tuvalu faces a wide array of economic development constraints, Colin Mellor is a and has limited opportunities for creating new wealth-generating Consultant Economist. activities. However, Tuvalu has remarkably good socioeconomic indicators by Pacific developing economy standards: poverty is largely non-existent, life expectancy (at 70 years) is high, adult literacy is near universal, and school enrolments are among the highest in the region. Tuvalu has also had a strong democratic tradition. This apparent paradox of achieving enviable socioeconomic living standards in the face of evident economic development constraints is explored in this survey.

Tuvalu is the world’s smallest developing Consequently, Tuvalu is constantly at nation state in terms of a combined measure considerable risk from natural disasters of resident population and contiguous land caused by cyclones and tsunamis, and resources. Its current population is around potentially from longer-term environmental 9,500 persons, based on the preliminary risks such as rising sea levels. results of the 2002 Census, of whom about Tuvalu is extremely isolated, even by 52 per cent (nearly 5,000) now live on the South Pacific standards. It is recognised by two main islands of Atoll. The total the United Nations as one of the world’s land area of Tuvalu is only 25.9 square least developed countries, and receives kilometres, comprising nine island groups. considerable development assistance from Some of these are made up of many tiny islets, the international community. Since 1970, the such as Funafuti Atoll, which consists of the average annual aid flow per capita to two main, inhabited islands ( and Tuvalu has been estimated at around Amatuku) and around two dozen other islets US$650 (1998), the highest for all the which are mostly uninhabited. The islands independent nations in the South Pacific of Tuvalu have extremely infertile soils and region (Hughes 2003). Tuvalu thus faces the are all low lying, with elevations generally familiar array of economic development less than three metres above sea level. constraints common to most South Pacific

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countries, including limited natural resources, its paucity of natural resources, and the fragmented land areas, small domestic evident array of economic development markets with weak private sectors, isolation constraints, the economy of Tuvalu is from major world markets (increasing the surprisingly resilient. Even in the absence costs of trade) as well as high internal of continuing support from the international transport costs, susceptibility to natural community, life in Tuvalu would un- disasters, inadequate infrastructure, an doubtedly be harsher, but equally inadequately skilled workforce, and often undoubtedly it would continue. Second, as inappropriate political, economic and the world’s smallest developing nation, administrative structures (in part, at least, Tuvalu provides a ‘microcosm’ of economic ‘inherited’ from their colonial past). development experience in an open, Yet despite this formidable array of democratic society, which potentially can constraints to economic development, Tuvalu contribute to the global debate on economic has surprisingly good socioeconomic development issues. indicators. Conventional poverty is largely non-existent, though arguably its citizens Basic economic data suffer from ‘poverty of opportunity’, in currently fashionable international develop- Readily accessible economic data on Tuvalu ment assistance parlance (United Nations are extremely limited and the published data 2002). Public health standards are generally need to be treated with considerable caution. good, and life expectancy (at 70 years) is For example, one usually reliable source quite high by Pacific island standards (Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat 2002) (Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat 2002). quotes Tuvalu’s GDP in 1998 as US$6 million Adult literacy is near universal, and school in current prices, and government expenditure enrolments are among the highest in the an unusually high 95 per cent of GDP (which region. Conventional social problems such is consistent however with the relatively as violent crime, illegal substance abuse and substantial, externally sourced income of the prostitution effectively do not exist. Tuvalu country). On the other hand, another usually has also had a strong democratic tradition reliable source asserts that Tuvalu’s 1998 as an independent nation state since GDP in current prices was more than double achieving independence from the United this estimate, at around US$13 million (Asian Kingdom in 1978. This apparent paradox of Development Bank 2002). Similarly, there are achieving enviable socioeconomic living considerable differences in the published standards in the face of evident economic statistics on GDP per capita in Tuvalu. There development constraints is explored in this are various reasons for this somewhat survey. confusing state of affairs, including At the outset, however, it seems inadequate statistics-gathering capacity in appropriate to address the question of why Tuvalu (for example, as of mid 2003, the most bother to study the economy of Tuvalu, given recently published Quarterly Statistical Report its minute size and almost complete by the Government of Tuvalu was for the insignificance in global terms. There are at December quarter 2001); genuine difficulties least two fundamental reasons. First, Tuvalu in data collection and interpretation, such exists as an independent nation state; it has as rapidly changing exchange rates, in done so for 25 years, and so far as can be particular between the Australian dollar (the judged, it will continue to do so. Despite all currency of Tuvalu) and the US dollar; its apparent environmental vulnerabilities, variations in population estimates; and

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issues such as the most appropriate means Examples of the latter include fishing and of placing an accurate monetary value on the telecommunications licence fees, some important subsistence sector. limited donor budgetary support grants Notwithstanding these data difficulties, (which may be, in part at least, conditional), the broad economic picture is relatively clear. and Dot TV marketing agreement revenues GDP per capita in 2002 is estimated to be (of which more below). A further complicating around US$1,350 in current prices (Asian factor is the arrangements for drawdowns to Development Bank 2003), though income recurrent revenue from Tuvalu’s financial growth per capita has been relatively modest reserves, in particular, the in recent years (1998–2002), at around 1–3 and the Consolidated Investment Fund. Such per cent per annum. Tuvalu’s GDP per capita contributions to recurrent revenue can vary is consequently significantly higher than widely from year to year, in part related to much larger Pacific island nations such as investment returns achieved by the Tuvalu Kiribati, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands and Trust Fund. Over the recent five-year period Papua New Guinea and broadly comparable (1998–2002), the reported average annual to GDP per capita in Samoa and Tonga. A better recurrent revenue has been around A$34 measure of economic welfare in Tuvalu would million (Tuvalu 2003). be GNP per capita, given the substantial The reported expenditures of govern- external income. However, published GNP ment are similarly not straightforward, and data for Tuvalu are not available, and the published data appear to contain estimates that have been made, such as significant discrepancies (Asian Develop- Hughes (2003) at US$1,100 per capita in 2000 ment Bank 2002). A substantial portion of dollar purchasing power parity, appear expenditures is reasonably predictable, in unconvincing. The consumer price index particular that related to maintaining the (CPI) shows inflation has been restrained civil service. However, other expenditures over the recent five-year period (1998–2002) are far less predictable, including capital at 1.5–3 per cent per annum on average. Other expenditures, and various operating grants conventional economic data (such as balance and transfers. Over the five year period 1998– of payments, exports/imports, official 2002, the reported average annual expend- reserves, and external debt/debt servicing) iture (operating and capital expenditure) has are not available for recent years. been around A$30 million (Tuvalu 2003), Concerning fiscal policy, the Government which indicates that a modest surplus has of Tuvalu broadly operates on the ‘balanced been achieved. Nevertheless, as noted earlier, budget’ principle, although it appears to have caution is appropriate in interpreting the produced modest budget surpluses in recent published accounts. years. However, much care is warranted when interpreting the accounts of govern- The subsistence sector ment, in part because they are usually audited well in arrears, appear to contain The subsistence sector (or non-monetary discrepancies and typically are subject to economic activity) refers to the production, sometimes substantial revisions. Further, consumption and transfer of goods and recurrent revenue estimates are not straight- services outside the monetary system (Fisk forward, and are split into ‘underlying 1995), which is also often referred to as revenue’ (taxes, duties and the like) which is traditional economic activity. Typical reasonably predictable, and ‘windfall examples in Tuvalu include fishing (in many revenue’ which is far less predictable. forms such as ocean, reef, lagoon, and

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collection); agricultural activities including income from a range of special activities such fruit and vegetable gardening, toddy (coconut as Dot TV; international aid; and income from tree sap) collection, copra production and Tuvalu’s national reserves, in particular the livestock (chickens, ducks, and pigs); Tuvalu Trust Fund. In addition, there is a handicrafts of many types; house building; range of other external income sources which and various ‘home’ processing activities currently are quite small, including such as for toddy and drying/salting fish. commodity exports such as copra, philatelic As recently as the late 1980s/early 1990s, products, tourism, foreign private invest- the proportion of the population of Tuvalu ment, and various other minor sources such relying largely or wholly on subsistence for as international church and ecumenical their basic needs was estimated at some 75 groups. Each of the five main sources of per cent (Fisk 1995). The share of subsistence income is briefly reviewed below. production in GDP in 1990 was estimated to Maritime employment be around 26 per cent (Tuvalu 1995). As in most other Pacific island countries, The fundamental importance of maritime subsistence production in Tuvalu is now (merchant marine) employment for the essentially in a mixed subsistence-cash economy of Tuvalu is not widely understood, mode, and there would be few households and perhaps even underestimated. As of mid totally reliant on subsistence production. 2003, industry sources estimate that around Equally, however, there would be very few 450 Tuvaluans were working abroad in Tuvaluan households that do not engage maritime employment, up from around 275 regularly in subsistence production in one in the early 1990s ( or more of its various forms. It is readily 2002). Industry sources estimate that this apparent that subsistence production employment currently generates about A$5 continues to play a significant role in the million per annum in remittances. Tuvaluan economic structure of the country, and seamen are typically trained at the Tuvalu provides an element of resilience for the Maritime Training Institute (TMTI) located national economy. Due to the ease of entry to on Amatuku, the second main island on (and exit from) subsistence production, Funafuti Atoll. Graduates from TMTI are in conventional unemployment is essentially demand because of their recognised seafaring non-existent in Tuvalu, as effectively all skills and aptitude; they have good English citizens can participate in subsistence language skills; and they are generally production in the absence of opportunities for considered to be reliable and diligent cash-earning activities. There seems no doubt workers. While undoubtedly there are some that subsistence production will continue to competitive pressures arising from other play a significant role in the national economy lower wage sources (especially in Asia), of Tuvalu for the foreseeable future. industry sources consider that the medium to longer-term prospects for continuing maritime employment of Tuvaluan seamen The monetary sector are solid.

Turning now to the monetary sector, in which Other external remittances effectively all citizens are now engaged, there Remittances from Tuvaluans working abroad appear to be five main sources of externally in addition to seamen continue to be a derived income: maritime employment; significant source of cash income, in addition remittances from Tuvaluans working abroad; to providing ‘in kind’ income through goods

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imported from overseas workers. Sources of estimated at around A$4.4 million per employment include Tuvaluans engaged in annum. It remains to be seen how sustainable phosphate production on Nauru (and this revenue source will be. The origin of this formerly in Banaba), as well as those largesse is an accident of history. When the employed in under special former Ellice Islands became an independent work visa arrangements. Other sources nation in 1978 (being formerly part of the include Tuvaluans who have migrated colony of Gilbert and Ellice abroad (such as to New Zealand and Islands), the traditional name (Tuvalu) for ), and/or have been able to settle the nine island groups constituting the abroad such as after completing study newly founded nation was adopted as the courses or marriage to foreigners. Recent data country’s official name. In an ironic twist, on external remittance flows are not readily the word ‘Tuvalu’ means ‘eight together’, available. The 2002 Census contained since one of the nine island groups questions on remittances and should provide () was not permanently populated useful information when results become (Institute of Pacific Studies 1983). When available, likely to be in 2004. Data from the internet abbreviations were allocated by late 1980s indicate that around 17 per cent country in the early 1980s, Tuvalu acquired of all households received cash incomes from the title to ‘.tv’, which almost two decades foreign remittances (Tuvalu 1988). While later has become a valuable national asset. comparatively little is known about Fishing licences to distant-water remittances, the conventional wisdom is that fishing nations (DFWN) provide another the flow of remittances from workers abroad important source of external income, based will decline (the ‘remittance decay’ on its tuna-rich exclusive economic zone hypothesis). However, recent studies of the (EEZ), generally estimated at around remittance behaviour of Tuvaluan migrants 900,000 square kilometres; although one in New Zealand suggest that their remittances source suggests a smaller EEZ for Tuvalu of may be sustainable (see Simati and Gibson around 760,000 square kilometres (Pacific 2001). Islands Forum Secretariat 2002). Tuvalu currently has Fisheries Agreements with the Externally derived income from special United States, and the Republic of activities China (Taiwan). Reported income from this Tuvalu receives an interesting array of source, while variable (in part due to externally derived income from various currency fluctuations between the US sources, such as telecommunications licences, dollar, in which agreements with DWFNs fishing licences and the Dot TV marketing are generally written, and the Australian agreement (and earlier, an ‘investment dollar) averaged A$8 million per annum passport’ scheme). Income received from over the five-year period 1998–2002 (Tuvalu these sources is variable and difficult to 2003). The estimated income in the 2003 predict. Undoubtedly, the most unusual and national budget from this source is lower, spectacular of these sources is the Dot TV at around A$5 million. While quite likely a marketing agreement, which reportedly sustainable source of income in the medium yielded around A$25 million in 2000 and an to longer term, informed observers have estimated A$27 million in 2002 (Tuvalu cautioned that the government should 2003). Income from this source in 1999 and ‘conservatively assess’ future income 2001 totalled A$2.6 million, and future streams from such fisheries agreements revenues (for 2003 and beyond) are currently (Asian Development Bank 2002).

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International aid support for agriculture, fisheries, environ- mental management and the like. As noted earlier, Tuvalu receives considerable Putting aside the well known argument aid from the international community of the ‘fungibility’ of international aid, and (Tuvalu 2002). Currently, the major bilateral contrary to the views of some observers (such donors are Republic of China (Taiwan), as Hughes 2003), direct untied aid to Tuvalu Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the (effectively, budget support) is quite modest, European Union. Other bilateral donors and presently confined mainly to the include Canada, France and . Republic of China (Taiwan); although even There is also a considerable array of this source is currently endeavouring to attach multilateral donors, such as the Asian conditionality. The European Union (EU) Development Bank, various United Nations provides some quasi-budget support, but does agencies (such as UNDP, UNICEF, UNFPA so using a unique formula which requires the and FAO), the World Health Organization, government to make matching contributions numerous regional agencies (such as the to the Tuvalu Trust Fund for such direct EU South Pacific Regional Environment support to the national budget. Furthermore, Programme, Secretariat of the Pacific these EU contributions are all for pre-agreed Community, Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, projects, and so are not in the nature of Forum Fisheries Agency, and South Pacific conventional budget support. It is difficult to Applied Geoscience Commission) and estimate international aid flows to Tuvalu, various others including the Commonwealth either in terms of ‘real value’ to the country or Fund for Technical Cooperation. The only in terms of direct expenditures on locally notable exception to this pantheon of provided goods and services. One recent international actors is the World Bank group, estimate of international aid flows to Tuvalu of which Tuvalu is not a member. There is of around US$650 (1998) per capita per also active participation in Tuvalu by various annum since 1970 (Hughes 2003) appears to international non-government organisations. be too high. Another usually reliable source As generally recognised, some inter- (United Nations 2002) reports annual average national aid is at best a ‘mixed blessing’ and aid flows to Tuvalu over the decade 1990– some projects are effectively a waste of time 2000 of just A$70 per capita, which appears and resources, both for Tuvalu and for the to be too low. Notwithstanding all the above international donors involved. Notwith- qualifications and uncertainties, Tuvalu can standing these caveats, Tuvalu has benefited quite reasonably assume that it will be a substantially from some effective inter- beneficiary of valuable support from the national aid. Much of its current physical international community in the foreseeable infrastructure (airport, wharves, public future. buildings, schools, hospitals, water supply, power generation, and so on) has been provided by international aid (the only The Tuvalu Trust Fund notable exception being the excellent road network recently completed on Funafuti, In addition to the considerable array of which was funded entirely by Tuvalu). international donors listed above, Tuvalu International aid also makes important receives major financial support from the contributions in a range of other areas, in Tuvulu Trust Fund. This highly innovative particular in the education and health fund was established in 1987, with initial sectors, as well as providing valuable support from Australia, New Zealand, South

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Korea and the United Kingdom (as well as substantial deposits of mineral-rich nodules; from the Government of Tuvalu itself). The but such possible future activities remain Fund has grown substantially since its highly speculative at best. opening value of A$26,372,771, through In the short to medium term, it would further contributions from existing donors as appear that the best foundation for a well as from new donors such as Japan (and successful national economic development from de facto contributions from the European strategy for Tuvalu is to focus on those areas Union through the Government of Tuvalu) where it is currently successful, and to and from investment earnings. As of 31 March improve the overall effectiveness and 2003, the Fund had an estimated market value efficiency of its domestic economy, in of A$71,488,682 (Tuvalu Trust Fund Advisory particular through various reforms in the civil Committee Report 2003). Drawdowns from service and improving the performance of the the Fund reportedly averaged over A$7 public sector generally, particularly the million per annum in the four-year period performance of its many state-owned 1998–2001 (Tuvalu 2003). Since then there enterprises including the have been no further drawdowns, due • essentially to the recent low returns in the • Tuvalu National Providence Fund international equities market, which have limited growth in the Fund. Nevertheless, • Development Bank of Tuvalu this fund provides a solid financial basis for • National Fishing Corporation of Tuvalu the Government of Tuvalu. • Tuvalu Philatelic Bureau • Vaiaku Lagi Hotel Corporation Economic development prospects • Tuvalu Electricity Corporation • Tuvalu Media Corporation Tuvalu appears to have few options for • Tuvalu Telecommunications Corporation developing new sources of wealth-generating activities. Considerable attention has been • Tuvalu Maritime Training Institute. focused in the past on developing a local tuna There is also much that the government could fisheries industry, such as by large-scale, do to better prioritise its expenditures, and value-adding processing, and also by chilled reduce waste and inappropriate outlays. For tuna export ventures. To date, all such example, substantial amounts of public investigations have been stymied by inherent money are wasted on the clearly excessive infrastructure constraints in Tuvalu, as well travel allowances paid to politicians and civil as by various other obstacles, and the short servants for overseas travel. Tuvalu also to medium term outlook for any successful maintains a diplomatic office at the United developments in this field is not encouraging Nations in New York at considerable expense (Asian Development Bank 2002). (which seems both unnecessary and Similarly, studies have been conducted inappropriate). Government could also give on tourism development potential in Tuvalu more attention to better managing the aid over the last decade. There appears to be little received from the international community. prospect in the short to medium term of significant progress in this economic sector (Tourism Council of the South Pacific 1997). In the very long term, opportunities could arise from the offshore mining of reportedly

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Economic development constraints Ironically, however, perhaps the most substantial and immediate constraint to In common with most other South Pacific economic development is entirely man- developing nations, Tuvalu faces a wide made, and essentially self-inflicted. As noted array of economic development constraints, earlier, Tuvalu has had an enviable although these are generally accepted as democratic record since attaining political being more extreme in Tuvalu than elsewhere independence in 1978. The political structure in the region. There are still major physical has generally been lean; appropriate for a infrastructure inadequacies in Tuvalu, country of its very small size. Over the last related particularly to power and water decade, however, (and contrary to the first supplies, sea transport facilities, and 15 years of independence) there has been a telecommunications networks. There are also prolonged period of political instability, with recognised weaknesses in the supporting frequent changes of government, prime infrastructure, such as inadequately skilled ministers, and ministerial portfolios. As of health workers, and, to a lesser extent, mid to late 2003, this unfortunate state of weaknesses in the national education system. public affairs continues, and undoubtedly All these areas provide scope for improve- has a deleterious impact on good economic ments in the short to medium term, if not governance in many ways, including delays beyond, both by nationally funded efforts as in decision making by government; political well as with the support of the international expedience taking precedence in government community. decision making, with a resulting focus on Concerning the country’s physical short-term implications rather than taking environment, much has been reported on its decisions in the longer-term interests of the apparent vulnerability. As a group of nine country; and a tendency towards a general very low-lying islands, Tuvalu is generally malaise in the civil service as a result of these believed to have existed in its current form debilitating circumstances. Unfortunately, for only some 2,000 to 4,000 years; which is there appear to be few (if any) prospects in an extremely short time in geological terms the short to medium term of a reversal of these (Lane 1993). There continue to be regular regrettable circumstances, although equally reports that Tuvalu is in danger of being there appear to be no prospects of anti- destroyed by rising sea levels, such as democratic forces taking hold. through the greenhouse gas/global warming phenomenon. Ironically, perhaps, the bulk of relevant data on this effect appears to Conclusion suggest that in fact the reverse has been happening over the last decade at least; that Tuvalu faces a wide array of economic sea levels around Tuvalu have been falling development constraints, and has limited in recent years (Baliunas and Soon 2002). opportunities for creating new wealth- However, it seems undeniable that Tuvalu generating activities. However, in part by can rightly be considered to be more environ- good fortune as well as by good management, mentally vulnerable than most developing and with considerable assistance from the nations, given its miniscule land resources, international community, Tuvalu has limited resource base, and susceptibility to surprisingly good socioeconomic indicators natural disasters related to its geographic —certainly by South Pacific developing location and the low-lying nature of the country standards. One of the explanations country. for this enviable state of affairs is the

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recognisably high sense of family and of Pacific and Asian Studies, The community obligations felt by its citizens, in Australian National University, addition to strong respect for moral and Canberra. democratic behaviour. It is perhaps an irony Hughes, H., 2003. Aid has Failed in the that Tuvalu is generally seen as being quite Pacific, Issue Analysis 33, The Centre for conservative in international politics, and Independent Studies, Sydney. that one of the stated explanations for its Lane, J., 1993. Tuvalu State of the long-term association with the Republic of Environment Report 1993, South Pacific China (Taiwan) is its traditional opposition Regional Environment Programme, to communism. Yet Tuvalu has quite a few Apia. characteristic features often associated with socialism, such as the well-entrenched and Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, 2002. The undoubtedly successful cooperative move- 9th European Development Fund, Regional ment (in particular in the retail sector) as well Strategy Paper & Regional Indicative as its commendable health and education Programme for the period 2002–2007, systems, which are highly accessible. This Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, . strong tradition of guarding and promoting Simati, A.K. and Gibson, J., 2001. ‘Do the social welfare of the nation (sometimes remittances decay? Evidence from described as ‘primitive‘ or ‘island’ socialism) Tuvaluan migrants in New Zealand’, could well provide useful lessons for other Pacific Economic Bulletin, 16(1):55–63. developing nations, not to mention the so- Tourism Council of the South Pacific, 1997. called developed nations of the world. Tuvalu Tourism Marketing and Development Action Plan, Tourism References Council for the South Pacific, Suva. Tuvalu, 1988. Tuvalu National Development Asian Development Bank, 2002. Tuvalu Plan IV 1988–1991, Government of 2002 Economic and Public Sector Review, Tuvalu, Funafuti. Asian Development Bank, Manila. ——, 1995. Kakeega O Tuvalu National ——, 2003. Country Strategy and Program Development Strategy 1995 to 1998, Update (2004–2006) Tuvalu, Asian Government of Tuvalu, Funafuti. Development Bank, Manila. ——, 2002. Annual Report 2002 Aid Baliunas, S. and Soon, W., 2002. ‘Is Tuvalu Coordination Unit, Government of really sinking?’, Pacific Magazine with Tuvalu, Funafuti. Islands Business, February:44–45. ——, 2003. Tuvalu National Budget 2003, Institute of Pacific Studies, 1983. Tuvalu—A Government of Tuvalu, Funafuti. History, University of the South Pacific, Tuvalu Trust Fund Advisory Committee, Suva. 2003. 2003 First Half-Yearly Report, Fisk, E.K., 1994. Tuvalu Country Report, Tuvalu Trust Fund Advisory Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Committee, Funafuti. ——, 1995. The subsistence sector in Pacific United Nations, 2002. Common Country island countries, Economics Division Assessment: Tuvalu, Office of the United Working Papers 95/3, Research School Nations Resident Coordinator, Suva.

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