Environmental Scanning Report, Which Identifies Current Trends and Emerging Issues That Have the Potential to Affect the Future of Graceland University

Trends & Issues

Summer 2018

Introduction

The Graceland Innovation Committee (GIC) has identified current trends and emerging issues that could potentially impact the future of higher education – Graceland’s future!

The following report identifies key indicators of what may be coming to the Higher Education industry based on a review of the Higher Education literature, journals, news reports and other sources, discussed in their regional context to highlight any potential impact on the task, general, and global environments of Graceland.

This report is intended to create an awareness of coming changes, to elevate and broaden thinking, and to set the stage for pro-active strategic planning. The issues are organized into the following categories: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political (STEEP).

Executive Summary

The Graceland Innovation Committee has developed this environmental scanning report, which identifies current trends and emerging issues that have the potential to affect the future of Graceland University. Our research reflects local & regional trends, and national/international findings based on news, research, and analysis from the past year. The following environmental scan focuses on key developments that influence the Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political (STEEP) framework of the higher education industry.

Below is a summary of the committee’s observations and recommendations:

Category Observations Recommendations Today’s Students: 1. Provide technical training and support for Social  Want ‘hands-on’ learning (HIPs) faculty and staff.  Want technology-facilitated learning 2. Work to meet the needs of a diverse student  Are more diverse and inclusive population  Are fewer, lower income, and less 3. Help students meet financial challenges prepared 4. Attract more students closer to home.  Want to be close to home 5. Accommodate Generation Z and Millennials in  Have high expectations for college programming and recruiting  Classrooms are adapting to 1. Redesign classroom spaces for contemporary Technological accommodate active learning. learners.  Technology-related training for faculty 2. Provide technical training and support for and staff is vital. faculty and staff (also referenced above).  Demand for mobile learning is forcing 3. Engage all stakeholders in decision-making institutions to improve infrastructure. 4. Build stronger mobile infrastructure.  Microcredentials are gaining acceptance 5. Conduct systematic review of information in business and industry. systems, training, and IT policies.  Learning analytics, for retention & 6. Evaluate microcredential opportunities. recruiting, is now a necessity rather than 7. Review education offerings for learning a luxury. analytics potential; fully utilize EAB SSC.  The U.S. is experiencing a very long, but 1. Maintain competitiveness by investing in select Economic mild economic expansion, with low Lamoni & Independence campus programs inflation and modest GDP growth and facilities.  Disparity between student expectations 2. Assess and address impact of cost-cutting and willingness/ability to pay is measures. continuing to grow 3. Create offerings for expanding student  Government deregulation is proceeding populations. through presidential executive order, but 4. Prepare financially for the next economic governmental scrutiny of higher downturn. educational institutions is continually requiring more time and resources  Secretary Devos has suggested the rewriting the Higher Education Act  70% of new jobs by 2022 will require a bachelor’s degree or higher.  Graduation rates at 4-year institutions are lagging.  Climate change is already impacting 1. Leverage current resources and alumni Environmental enrollment, most notably, the 2017 connections to the green economy to meet flooding in Houston & Puerto Rico. climate challenges and opportunities.  Environmental threats include more 2. Develop relevant curriculum and programming severe storms, extreme heat, migration, 3. Make environmental weaknesses into reduced water resources, and loss of strengths, leveraging our rural campus in species diversity. Lamoni to offer related programs and services  Environmental opportunities include local food movements, shifting energy portfolios, the growing ‘green’ economy, and waste reduction & efficiency.  Missouri community colleges will begin 1. Respond to dynamic changes in Missouri Political to offer baccalaureate degrees. community colleges; explore partnerships with  The recent U.S. Federal Tax Reform will Iowa and Missouri community colleges. impact nonprofits and charitable giving. 2. Adjust recruiting and fundraising efforts to  Tax reform allows families to use tax- respond to new federal tax law. advantaged accounts to pay for K-12 tuition, reducing the likelihood that funds will be available by the time students reach college.

The Innovation Committee’s goal is to create general awareness of changes that may impact Graceland University and the Higher Education industry. It is recommended that findings from our environmental scan form part of the foundation for future discussion and investigation into these oncoming trends and issues.

Respectfully,

Graceland Innovation Committee

Paul Binnicker (chair) Dr. Dennis McElroy Director, Center for Graduate & Continuing Studies Professor of Education

Dr. Katie Clauson Bash Dr. Dan Platt Vice President for Institutional Effectiveness Assistant Professor of English

Alison Choate Dr. Rob Poulton Assistant Registrar Associate Professor of Economics

Melinda Graham Ozzie White Director of Student Activities & Conferences Head Coach, Women’s Soccer

John James Lee Williams Instructional Design Support Specialist Director of Grabske Library

Table of Contents

Table of Contents ...... 4 Context and Methodology ...... 5 Social Issues ...... 6 Recommendations and Planning Considerations ...... 9 Technology Issues ...... 11 Recommendations and Planning Considerations ...... 14 Economic Issues ...... 16 Recommendations and Planning Considerations ...... 18 Environmental Issues ...... 20 Recommendations and Planning Considerations ...... 21 Political Issues ...... 23 Recommendations and Planning Considerations ...... 24 Conclusion ...... 25 References ...... 26 Appendix ...... 31

4 | P a g e Context and Methodology

“Environmental scanning: The art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment to better understand the nature of trends and drivers of change and their likely future impact on your organization.”

The Graceland Innovation Committee (GIC) has recently conducted an environmental scan of key industry trends and issues currently affecting higher education. Conway, M., (2009) defined environmental scanning as “the art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment to better understand the nature of trends and drivers of change and their likely future impact on your organization.” The Graceland Innovation Committee has used this methodology to write this report, which is intended to provide a broad view of the external environment within which Graceland functions, with a focus on major trends and forces that could influence Graceland’s future. The recommendations from this study are intended to inform Graceland’s planning processes.

Since strategic planning is about the future, the GIC has attempted to include emerging issues that may or may not develop into major trends down the road in order to broaden the context for decision-making. It is impossible to be proactive without considering what the future will bring. Shaping Tomorrow, 2008, notes, “Competitive advantage comes from the periphery, from emerging issues – not from trends.” An awareness of both trends and emerging issues will best help Graceland shape its future.

The need for regular, continuous environmental scanning work is vital in today’s dynamic marketplace. Daft (2010) provides discussion on the interaction between environmental complexity and environmental stability, and states that during periods of great change planning should become more frequent. The higher education environment will most likely remain uncertain for the foreseeable future and Graceland will need to routinely review and adjust flexible plans. The Graceland Innovation Committee’s goal is to produce a regular environmental scanning report, at least once per year.

5 | P a g e Social Issues

Overview: Graceland’s commitment to transform lives requires that Graceland understand the lives of the students we serve. This section addresses Generation Z, the group of Americans who were born after 1998 and who are just enrolling in Graceland’s traditional programs, and Generation Y, the millennials born between 1977 and 1997 who primarily populate Graceland’s Independence and distance programs. Several characteristics of these students are especially relevant:

1. They are more technologically-savvy than the students before them; 2. They are more diverse and more inclusive; 3. There are fewer of them, especially in the Midwest, they are more likely to come from lower income households, and they are less prepared for college; 4. They want to be closer to home; and 5. They have high expectations of college.

Observations of Existing and Emerging Social Issues:

1. Today’s Students Want ‘Hands On’, Technology Facilitated Learning The oldest members of Generation Z are just 19 years old. That means they are the teenagers entering traditional college programs, soon to join the workforce. Members of Generation Z:  Have always known smartphones, are technologically advanced and financially driven (Who is Gen Z?, 2017)  Learn best by “doing,” and have indicated that teachers could use more technology and hands-on learning examples to better help them. They want engaging, interactive learning experiences to include technology as a key component.  Don't know a time without the internet. They favor streaming content in snack-sized bites, like that offered through YouTube, and they consume it mostly on their phones and computers. They largely eschew TV shows and movies, and they are unused to live programming with advertising. (Business Insider, 2017).  Are even more careful with social media than millennials. Only 49% of Gen Zers agree that "Social media is an important part of my life" compared to 61% of millennials. Almost 60% of both generations are concerned that their posts could come back to haunt them. “For Gen Z…today’s students favor Snapchat in part because of the strict control over who can see their posts,” Business Insider (2017).  “[expect] digital learning tools to be deeply integrated into their education because technology has always been fully integrated into every part of their lives.” Forbes (2017).  …expect these learning tools to be available on-demand, at low or no cost, and with low barriers to access. For them, learning isn’t limited to just the classroom; it’s something that can take place at anytime, anywhere,” Forbes (2017).  Learn by doing, appreciate technology in the classroom, are intelligent and independent self-educators and “doers”  Will be successful through their independence, self-reliance and ability to self- educate (Getting to Know Gen Z, 2015); (Who is Gen Z?, 2017).

6 | P a g e 2. They Are More Diverse and Inclusive Members of Gen Z are more inclusive and diverse than any other generation thus far (Wood, 2017); (Kane, 2017). They are the most likely generation “to say they have friends of a different sexual orientation (59%, versus 53% of millennials and smaller percentages of the older generations). When presented with the statement "I have one or more friends who are of a different race than me," 81% of Gen Z respondents answered yes, compared to 69% of millennials, 67% of Generation X, and 71% of baby boomers,” Business Insider (2017).

“As far as dating people of a different race, 35% of Gen Zers said they have; more than any other generation except millennials (43%). This may be because Gen Z is the most racially-diverse generation in America. The Census Bureau found that 48% of Gen Z is non-Caucasian. The next-most-diverse generation is the millennials (44%),” Business Insider (2017).

3. They Are Fewer in Number, Lower Income, and Less Prepared The Midwest economic and higher education environment is changing rapidly, as the central U.S. deals with the demographic realities of a decreasing number of high school graduates, increasing diversity, and increasing percentages of first generation students and of students from lesser means. (See figures A through G in the Appendix.)

Midwest high school graduates peaked in the 2007-08 school year at 772,000 and are projected to drop 12% by 2027-28. From Fall 2014 to Fall 2017, U.S. postsecondary enrollment decreased 4.1%. Enrollment at private, not-for profits (PNFPs) decreased 1.3%, and enrollment of students over age 24 at PNFPs decreased 32.8%.

A. According to the National Association of Realtors and American Student Assistance (2017), 7 in 10 Americans admit that their student loan debt is delaying buying a house or take a vacation; more than half of them said debt delayed their ability to buy a car or continue their education, and 41% delayed getting married. B. Ohio State University’s Center for the Study of Student Life surveyed just under 19,000 undergraduate students from across the nation about their feelings toward finances and debt. Almost 60% of respondents indicated that they worry about paying for school, while half of the respondents indicated they worry about having enough for their monthly expenses. 32% of respondents neglect studies at times due to the money they owe. (Grabmeier 2015). C. The Brookings Institution noted that college degrees are worth less if the matriculated student is from a poor family. If family income is less than 185% of the federal poverty line, the career income increase over a high school education is 91%. Those whose families made more than 185% of the poverty line earned 162% more than people with only a high school diploma (Hershbein 2016).

4. They Want to Be Close to Home College freshmen are looking for schools closer to them, as are post-traditional students, due to their lifestyles and ties to their community. The American Council on Education (ACE) conducted a study in 2016 that suggests geography matters more now than ever before due to today’s students’ family and community ties, dependents, and full-time jobs. Their research indicated that the majority of incoming freshman, 57%, will attend a four- 7 | P a g e year college within 50 miles of home. Again, geography is even more important for those non-traditional students balancing a career, home and family. ACE researchers also concluded that students from working-class families and from populations that are rising are more likely to attend college much closer to home.

Recent research from The Chronicle of Higher Education indicated two things: most first- year college students attend school in their home state and the rest attend a private school in a neighboring state. (See figure H in the Appendix.) • Nationwide, 73% of students attend colleges in their own state. • 52% stay within 100 miles of home. • 15.5% of freshmen go more than 500 miles from home. • 49% of Iowa students attend colleges in Iowa. • 90% of Grand View students are from Iowa. • 72% of Simpson students are from Iowa. • 31% of William Penn students are from Iowa, 9.5% are from Missouri. • 20% of Graceland students are from Iowa, 32% are from Missouri.

5. They Have High Expectations for College On the value of a college education, research details conflict. Barnes and Noble College found that 89% of Gen Z students rated a college education as valuable and that 82% plan to go directly from high school to college, with 77% considering a four-year college and 39% considering a community college. At the same time, Strada-Gallup 2017 College Student Survey confirms a crisis of confidence among current students regarding their readiness to enter the workforce: Only 34% of current students believe that they will graduate with the skills and knowledge to be successful in the job market, and just over half (53%) believe their major will lead to a good job.

 When searching for information on colleges, prospective students are most interested in information about specific majors and minors, according to a new survey from the Educational Advisory Board (EAB). The study polled nearly 5,000 freshmen enrolled at more than 900 four-year colleges and universities about their college search process: o 70% wanted to know about majors and minors, o 19% about a school's ranking or reputation, o 45% about college costs, and o 24% about financial aid.  “…access to unlimited new information has created a more self-reliant and career- driven generation; 13% of Gen Zers already have their own business. And many show a strong interest in designing their own classroom path in college. In fact, nearly half of high school students have taken at least one class that counts as college credit,” Forbes (2017).

Since the 1997 recession, students have become more practical and career-focused when choosing schools. EAB research suggests that this trend is likely to continue:

 The number of students seeking information about academic programs has grown by about 4 percent over the last two years.

8 | P a g e  The desire for other types of information (cost, financial aid, reputation, etc.) has remained constant or decreased slightly. Results suggest that students are focused on value and whether their degree will enable them to succeed in their chosen profession; they are evaluating ‘return on education'.  95% used e-mail to communicate with a college during their search;  Campus visits were both the most used and the most valued source of information;  42% follow the school they are attending on Instagram, 37% on Facebook, and 22% on Twitter;  41% said information about majors and minors is the most useful content schools share on social media;  Fewer students looked to a school's social media channels for information about college costs (31%) and financial aid (26%).

Princeton Review (2018) has compiled the following list of Top Ten College Majors based on research encompassing job prospects, alumni salaries, and popularity: 1. Computer Science 2. Communications 3. Government/Political Science 4. Business 5. Economics 6. English Language and Literature 7. Psychology 8. Nursing 9. Chemical Engineering 10. Biology

Social Recommendations and Planning Considerations

1.Help Faculty and Staff Keep Pace with Educational Technologies Faculty and staff need to be at least as technologically savvy as high school faculty are. Only with ongoing professional development will they have the technical expertise and awareness of the degree to which creative educational pedagogies are influencing student decisions about college and exposure to how technology is being used in classroom settings.

2.Work to Meet the Needs of a Diverse Student Population Graceland students have benefitted from Graceland’s commitment to diversity. This is reflected in 2015 and 2017 National Survey for Student Engagement (NSSE) responses of GU students whose mean scores were significantly higher than their peers on “frequency of discussions with diverse others” and “connected learning to societal problems other than coursework,” although those scores decreased a bit in 2017. It is likely that Gen Z will be attracted by the Essential Education core, especially to the Global Learning and the Human Cultures outcomes and themes of World Citizenship, Peace, and Equality, so these should be marketed as Graceland distinctives.

Combining the increasing diversity of students in the Midwest with Graceland’s declining Community of Christ population compounds the need to continue to prioritize and elevate curricular and co-curricular multi-cultural opportunities. Graceland has expanded the 9 | P a g e scope of the international student services offices to multiculturalism. Millennials and Gen Z will be attracted to the kinds of co-curricular opportunities that office promotes: cultural conversations, celebrations and town hall meetings, events like “Worth of All Persons” and clubs representing human/cultural diversity.

Graceland claims to be inclusive, but no assessment evidence is available to support the claim. Current students and employees from minority populations have reported problems that suggest that diversity awareness training should continue for employees and potentially for community members.

3.Help Students Meet New Financial Challenges Students stress about paying for school while enrolled. Students need to better understand personal finance. When Graceland’s Essential Education program was under development, faculty discussed the importance of including financial planning outcomes and courses; perhaps Graceland faculty should revisit that discussion with this understanding of demographics in mind.

As required by federal regulations, Graceland’s Financial Aid office offers financial counseling, yet faculty and staff report hearing students nearing graduation who say that they didn’t realize they had the amount of student loan debt that they did until their exit counseling. A more rigorous financial aid information program or session may be appropriate.

4.Reach More Students Closer to Home Graceland’s enrollment management plans include a “success zone” with goals to recruit more students who live nearer to Graceland. Graceland could also find a way to involve parents and families from a distance through technology (more live streaming of more events) or by scheduling parent weekends.

5.Accommodate Generation Z and Millennials in Programming and Recruiting Learn how to appeal to this generation while they are selecting an institution:  Graceland has invested in a comprehensive communication and support tool, the EAB Student Success Collaborative, and needs to fully utilize it.  Understand how they select an institution and use it to inform recruitment strategies. Online tools make instant information available to anyone in the world; prospective students can get a birds-eye view from a drone!  Expand Independence Campus opportunities. The Independence Campus is in a perfect location to reach the millennials who are juggling homes, families and careers. With more capacity than currently needed, it may be the right time to evaluate the programs offered in Lamoni and see what may be better offered online and/or in Independence.

10 | P a g e Technology Issues

Overview: According to Educause (2018), several technology trends face higher education in 2018 and beyond, including: active learning, encryption, mobile learning, infrastructure and emerging technologies, integrated planning and advising for student success (iPASS), microcredentials, online education, and learning analytics. These pervasive external factors need to inform decision-making.

Observations of Existing and Emerging Technological Issues:

Active Learning Classroom technology and design are beginning to adapt to accommodate active learning. As education scholar Cathy Davidson predicts, “the majority of new classrooms that are renovated will be planned as active learning spaces. This means that tiered seating and fixed desks will disappear, to be replaced by flat floors and flexible furniture. Rather than spaces designed for lecturing, classrooms will be designed for collaboration and coaching” (Davidson, 2018). The underlying question is, “Should educators incorporate these active learning methods to keep up and not become irrelevant?” (Morrison, 2012).

Information Systems in Education According to the educational technology researcher Joanna Grama (2018), since 2016 the number one issue for higher education IT officials is cybersecurity. Between the years 2005 and 2014, 324 higher education institutions experienced data breaches affecting some 15.5 million records. According to the Ponemon Institute, each lost or stolen record cost the institution $246 (United Educators, 2018).

Types of information contained in university information systems:  Social Security Numbers  Bank account numbers  Credit card numbers  Addresses  Birth dates  Personal email  Class schedules

Information systems need to handle:  Student records  Student payments  Professor and staff schedules  Library records

Mobile Learning The demand for anytime/anywhere access to information as well as the exponential increase in student access to mobile technologies has forced higher education to improve infrastructure and information delivery options. As Jessica Leigh Brown argues in 11 | P a g e University Business Magazine: “There’s a broad understanding that mobile-first experience is a requirement… today’s students expect a similar, frictionless consumer experience when interacting with their educational institution” (Brown, 2016). Mobile learning savvy states:

“[Universities need to] offer students choices in regard to how they want to access the classroom and how to use other student services to meet their needs. The widespread use of mobile devices means students have easier access to their university. A mobile device allows them to stay current with their classes and keep in touch with the university from anywhere. The greater access that a university provides to students through mobile devices, the more likely it is that students will develop a greater connection to that educational institution” (Gordon, 2017).

Microcredentials According to the Chronicle of Higher Education (2017), the four-year degree has lost its luster as the litmus test for employers. As a result, students are also becoming skeptical: “‘Students are no longer buying that whole ‘college experience’” (Arnett, 2017). Initiatives such as MicroMasters by EdX are providing an alternative route to learning and ultimately to the completion of a degree (Kim, 2018). The use of open badges, “issued by learning institutions are especially valuable because they carry encrypted information about what the learner had to demonstrate to earn the badge as well as the context for the badge itself” (Irvine, 2018). It is becoming increasingly clear that higher education’s use of badges and microcredentials will clearly communicate that their students are competent. Prospective employers are looking for graduates with data literacy and management skills, but they are also looking for soft skills such as communication, empathy, work ethic, relationships, and mentoring abilities.

Online Education Students are choosing to look for credentials they need versus degrees they can earn. As such, higher education will be diversifying and becoming more flexible in their online offerings (US News, 2016). According to Babson Survey Research (2018), the number of U.S. students who enrolled in at least one online course rose by 5.6 percent between fall 2015 and fall 2016 which “exceeds the gains seen over the past three years.” This trend is expected to continue into 2018. Innovations such as online response systems, AI, credentialing, and gamification all could impact online course delivery in 2018.

Not only is this area a strategic priority for small residential schools, experts have been predicting for more than 25 years that “the technology called ‘school’ and the social institution commonly thought of as ‘education’ will be as obsolete and ultimately extinct as the dinosaurs” (Reeves and Hedberg, 2003, pg. 208). Furthermore, James J. Duderstadt (Former president of the University of Michigan) stated: [The] emerging domestic market for educational services could be served by a radically restructured enterprise consisting of fifty thousand faculty “content providers,” two hundred thousand faculty “learning facilitators,” and one thousand faculty “celebrities,” who would be the stars of the companies handling the production and packaging of learning-ware products. The learner would be linked to these faculty resources by an array of for-profit 12 | P a g e service companies handling the production and packaging of learning-ware, the distribution and delivery of these services to learners, and the assessment and certification of learning outcomes (Glass and Vrasidas, 2002).

The Babson Survey Research Group (also co-sponsored by the Online Learning Consortium, Pearson, StudyPortals, WCET and Tyton Partners) had the following key findings on their 2015 Online Report Card which tracks online education in the United States:  3.9% increase in online students (up from 3.7%)  28% of students take at least one class  70.8% of chief academic leaders believe online learning is critical to long-term strategies.  29.1% of academic leaders report that their faculty accept the “value and legitimacy of online education.”

Learning Analytics The implementation of a “unified data standardization effort” (Kelly, 2018) is a necessity. Data analytics are being used for student retention and success. Higher education administrators are being pushed to make informed decisions and therefore “want to move from “best guesses” about budget impacts to more accurate predictions about issues” (Beckwith, 2016). For students, the use of learning analytics “has the potential to help students monitor their behavioral patterns, track changes over time, and compare their progress toward learning goals against both absolute and normative standards based on peer data” (Wiley, 2018). The use of analytics can be used to improve pedagogy, instructional content, retention, and student satisfaction.

One current example of innovative approach to analytics is the Integrated Planning and Advising for Student Success (iPASS) Initiative. According to its creators, the nonprofit education group “Achieving the Dream,” “[iPass’s] approach to integrated advising and student support redesign leverages technology and relationship building to provide proactive, personalized, and holistic supports that meet the individual needs of the student.” Three key areas are: 1. Academic education, career, and financial planning helps students understand their career and educational goals and helps guide the student through the decisions to achieve those goals 2. Counseling and coaching students through on and off-campus resources that helps the students in a proactive, integrated, and personalized way. 3. Targeting risk and intervention tries to predict course failure and program stop-out to support timely and effective interventions. Once the iPASS study has concluded, Graceland should review their findings to determine if any of the results can benefit Graceland.

13 | P a g e Technology Recommendations and Planning Considerations

1.Redesign Classroom Spaces for Today’s Learners Graceland needs to plan for renovation of learning areas to incorporate technology as part of the learning process. The design of classrooms needs to evolve beyond the traditional structures that have existed for several centuries. Rather than spaces designed for lecturing, classrooms will be designed for collaboration and coaching, with additions like makerspaces, wireless access, and appropriate lighting and furniture (Davidson, 2018).

2.Provide Faculty with Technology Training and Support With these redesigns, faculty need to be provided support to learn how to effectively leverage new technologies in the teaching/learning process. This may require the employment of educational technology personnel that exist outside of the traditional IT structure.

3.Engage All Stake-Holders in Decision-Making Processes While it is important to keep up with the technological trends of the market, it can also become very overwhelming for all users to be constantly changing. This is where balance comes in. We have a Learning Management System (LMS) that allows for more engagement, but only if the instructors are creating their courses to allow for it. Instructors need to rely on the resources the university already has to help guide them in creating high engagement courses. Decisions about university-wide systems need to engage a variety of users so that all relevant questions can be addressed prior to decision making. Additionally, faculty need support personnel on each campus to help with the complexities of the LMS.

Reinstate the Academic Technology Committee to provide leadership and guidance to the university in relation to technology needs and services. All decisions involving technology and academics should pass through this committee.

4.Build Stronger Mobile Infrastructure The university needs to continue to expand infrastructure to meet the demands of mobile devices on campus. This includes engaging faculty in the decision-making process to identify needs and potential solutions.

5.Conduct Periodic Systematic Review of:

Information Systems: To make sure they can handle what is required now, and in the future, and, if not, be open to all possible solutions. Look into hiring a credentialed Database Administrator to guide decision making in this area. We should also conduct more thorough evaluation of information systems software. For example, G2 Crowd is a crowd-sourced site that allows a user to view peer reviews of software they are using. This allows the user to have an understanding straight

14 | P a g e from a user of a product, and not the promotional materials from the vendor producing the product.

Personnel: To ensure they have the hard and soft skills to ensure we have a successful IT department now and in the future, and, if they don’t, look into professional development to help them obtain the skills they need. A credentialed Database Administrator would also be able to help in this area.

Policies and Procedures: To ensure we are doing our best to eliminate data breaches and move the university forward. The proper systems, created correctly, also ensures that correct data can be pulled when making decisions. Student retention, budget projections, faculty and student information, etc. can easily be determined when the university information systems are created, adapted to changing needs, and maintained correctly.

6.Evaluate Opportunities for Microcredentialing Begin to look at how we can incorporate added credentials/certifications to our programs so that students can graduate with not just a degree, but with the skills that employers desire. Evaluate microcredential/badging systems that are emerging across the country for viability and applicability to our graduates. Employ those systems that meet specific needs and create highly sought-after graduates.

7.Review Online Education Offerings As education changes, we should perform a systematic review of all programs to determine if there are face-to-face programs that could also be offered online. Faculty should be intimately involved in the process of determining which courses can be offered online, preparing the curriculum and implementation options. Identify and plan for technologies that are available to our students. Faculty need to be prepared for taking advantage of these technologies in the classroom versus banning them. Students need to become versed in appropriate etiquette for the use of these devices in academia and society.

15 | P a g e Economic Issues

Overview: Changing demographics and increasing competitive pressures necessitate that higher education institutions engage in careful planning to become more efficient, fiscally responsible, and innovative than ever before.

Observations of Existing and Emerging Economic Issues:

Overall Outlook for Higher Education This year, Standard and Poors (S&P) and Moody’s financial services both issued a bleak outlook for higher education. According to S&P, “disparity between student expectations and willingness to pay” continues to grow, further straining midlevel institutions. Moody’s notes that the Northeast and Midwest face the greatest risk.

Macroeconomic Factors That May Influence Higher Education  Interest rates may affect student loan rates and raise the cost of attendance which could, in term, impact demand, but current rates are at historically low levels right now and only modest rate increases are expected.  The U.S. is experiencing a very long, but mild economic expansion characterized by low inflation and slow GDP growth. Although historically expansions have not persisted much longer than this, there is no inherent economic reason why this expansion is soon to end. As long as economic growth continues, unemployment, which was measured at 3.9% in April (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2018a), will remain low. The BLS (2018b) also reports that wage and salary growth in the 12 months ending March 2018 was 2.7%, while inflation remains below 2%.  One potential risk is the threat of an escalating trade war with China. This could particularly impact the Iowa economy which produces many of the goods targeted in retaliatory measures by China (Patane 2018).

Public Policy’s Impact on Higher Education In their 2017-18 Environmental Scan, the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) outlines several developments in public policy that may have ramifiacations for higher education institutions:  Government de-regulation is proceeding through presidential executive order, impacting virtually every sector of the economy, including higher education, where the Department of Education has loosened its oversight of the for-profit sector. (NACE)  Secretary of Education DeVos has suggested the need to completely rewrite the Higher Education Act, but Senator Alexander, chair of the Senate Education Committee, has apparently rejected that idea. (NACE)  In contradiction to de-regulation, there is a renewed emphasis to better identify and track learning and outcomes data for college graduates, increasing institutions’ monitoring and reporting accountabilities. For example, the College Transparency Act sponsored by Senators Hatch of Utah and Warren of Massachusetts was heavily influenced by the Association of Public and Land-grant Universities, which is seeking support for the bill from other higher education associations. (NACE)

16 | P a g e  State funding for higher education has been decreasing since 1980. According to a study from the American Council on Education (ACE), funding for higher education has increased since then in only two states, Wyoming and North Dakota. Since the recession, all but four states (Wyoming, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Montana) have decreased support for higher education. On average, state funding has declined 18% per student. Per-student funding is down by more than 30% in nine states: Alabama, Arizona, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina.  The current administration’s immigration platform, particularly through executive actions such as the travel ban, apparently have had an effect on the enrollment of foreign students at American universities. A report by the American Association of College Registrars and Admissions Officers (AACRAO) found that 40% of U.S. colleges are reporting fewer international applications in 2017. The Institute of International Education reports that, overall, 2% fewer international students have been admitted for the coming year.”  With student loan debt reaching $1.4B, critics are concerned that student loans may be the next financial bubble to burst. They cite loans of more than $100K and ballooning default rates and contend that borrowing for higher education may not be worth the financial risks, especially for students who attend private institutions. Average debt level of bachelor’s degree recipients at private colleges and universities is $19,900 (NACE, 2018).

Regional Economic Data  Iowa has its own version of the federal Pell Grant to help low-income students, and its track record of success is better. The state has provided an average $46M a year in Iowa Tuition Grant aid to thousands of students from low-income families over the past decade, helping them pay for private in-state college or university (Bolton 2018). (See figure I in the Appendix.)  During that time, 76% of those grant recipients graduated within six years from one of Iowa’s private institutions, Iowa College Aid data shows. Grant recipients are more likely to graduate than other groups of students, including those from higher- income families. Not all Iowa private colleges and universities have a successful record of graduating grant recipient students. In the past decade, ten of Iowa’s private colleges/universities graduated 80% or more of Iowa grant recipients. Graceland’s rate of 71% ties with Buena Vista to rank 14 and 15 of the 20 institutions. (See figure J in the Appendix.)  40% of Iowa's K-12 students this year are from low-income families. Nationally, that number is greater than 50%. (U.S. ED)  Of the more than 15.6 million U.S. jobs expected to be added by 2022, more than 70% will require a bachelor's degree or higher, according to a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report. The state's Future Ready Iowa initiative aims to ensure 70% of Iowa's workers have training or education beyond HS by 2025. To reach that goal, a higher percentage of Iowa's low-income college students must obtain certificates and degrees.

17 | P a g e Lagging Graduation Rates  Since the early 1970s, more than $463B in taxpayer dollars has been paid to institutions in Pell Grants (U.S. ED). Until recently, institutions were not required to report graduation rates for Pell Grant recipients, who last year received $26.9B. The first data release revealed that at 60% of the nation's more than 1,900 public and private 4-year institutions, half or fewer Pell recipients graduated within 6 years. At 27 public and private 4-year institutions in Iowa, Pell recipients graduated within 6 years at rates ranging from 27% at Iowa Wesleyan to 82% at Cornell. (See figure K in the Appendix.)

Economic Recommendations and Planning Considerations

Despite the current regional and national economic climate characterized by a sustained period low unemployment and real wage growth, enrollment challenges persist due to changing demographics and competitive pressures of the higher education market. Graceland needs to be proactive and nimble in responding to these pressures.

1.Invest in Lamoni & Independence Campus Programs and Facilities Maintaining regional competitiveness requires demonstrating the value of a residential liberal arts education in terms that appeal to prospective students and young adults, Graceland needs to maintain its quality of offerings, instruction, and facilities, while at the same time clearly articulating Graceland’s distinctiveness. Appealing to these prospective students will necessitate new and innovative academic and co-curricular programming, reinvesting in areas of strength, and providing adequate funding for marketing to grow programs.

2.Assess budget impacts of cost-cutting measures Many changes have been made in recent years to improve the operating budget and to proactively reduce the university’s dependence on SkillPath funding. Just as faculty assess learning, as an institution, we should regularly assess the effectiveness of these major changes in improving the university’s bottom line, including evaluation of the impacts on both cost and revenue.

3.Create offerings for expanding student populations A. Create new programming and increase marketing of existing programming aimed at adult learners, while leveraging connections with SkillPath to better access and serve potential students. B. Given the decrease in the number of graduating high school students in the Midwest, consider expanding the international student population. The Wall Street Journal (Barta et al., 2015) noted that the percentage of international students at U.S. colleges and universities was at an all-time high so Graceland might identify countries with expanding numbers of students seeking education in the U.S. and increase marketing in those areas, for example, China and Saudi Arabia (see Figure M in the Appendix). C. Understanding the trend towards more under-resourced students seeking a private college education, Graceland could become a leader in serving this growing population. 18 | P a g e D. Because of the aging U.S population, demand for healthcare services is rising. Build on our market strength in the School of Nursing to deliver other educational products that will be in increasingly high demand.

4.Prepare financially for the next economic downturn The current macroeconomic climate is positive but every expansion is followed by an eventual economic slowdown. In 2008, the financial crisis impacted U.S. colleges and universities, affecting enrollments and endowments, including Graceland. To be prepared, Graceland should continue to be prudent in financial decision-making, balancing the need to invest SkillPath dollars in new programs and facilities against the need to increase endowment and reserves. It is the reserves that will allow Graceland to sustain a drop in revenue during the next downturn.

In addition, Graceland should seek to raise Lamoni campus enrollment in order to provide a buffer for the next economic recession. In addition to immediate budget impacts, declining enrollments may present new retention and recruiting challenges if the vibrancy of the campus is affected by smaller numbers. Therefore, efforts to increase the number of students on campus, even those that appear budget-neutral, may have long term benefits in creating this margin of safety.

19 | P a g e Environmental Issues

It is important to acknowledge and plan strategically for the potential impact of environmental threats on Graceland. Graceland is already experiencing the impact of severe weather. The summer/fall 2017 storm season—particularly the flooding in Houston and the hurricane in Puerto Rico—disrupted enrollment and performance of students from those areas. Climate change will continue to affect our ability to attract and retain students, particularly those from areas that are most vulnerable to its worst effects, such as Florida, Texas, and California. The sooner we acknowledge and begin planning for climate change, the more resilient we will be as an institution. And while climate change and other environmental crises certainly threaten our long-term stability as an institution, there are also vital opportunities embedded in the landscape. To make the most of those opportunities, we’ll need to create the conditions for creative and collaborative thinking, clear communication, and innovative strategic planning.

Observations of Existing and Emerging Environmental Issues:

Environmental Threats:  More Severe Storms: While it’s impossible to link climate change to any one devastating storm, NASA’s “Earth Observatory” project suggests that the rise in global temperatures will contribute to a general rise in frequency, severity, and cost of storms across the world.  More “Extreme Heat”: Most climate prediction models suggest that we will see more “extreme heat” days and heat waves in the years ahead, and that we’ll experience extreme heat later in the summer season (Luber and McGeehin, 2008).  Environmental Migrations: The United Nations Refugee Agency predicts that forced migrations related to climate change and other environmental crises will exacerbate the global refugee crisis in the next decade.  Depletion of Water Resources: Although the Midwest has not suffered the same level of drought as Western states, the prospect of long-term water shortage is very real in southern Iowa and threatens the agricultural economy. (Kolbert, 2014)  Loss of Species Diversity: Most environmental scientists believe that we will continue to experience massive losses to biodiversity in the coming years (Kolbert, 2014). In addition, the past decade has seen the proliferation of dangerous invasive species in Iowa (Emerald Ash Borer, Asian Carp). Graceland needs to support regional efforts to protect critical habitat and restore native species and traditional ecosystems (tallgrass prairie, oak savannah).  Political Polarization of Environmental Issues: Discussion of environmental issues in the U.S. is increasingly politically and culturally polarized, a trend that shows no sign of abating (Dunlap and McCright, 2009).

Environmental Opportunities:  Movements for Small Farms and Local Food: Interest among young people in small-scale farming and homesteading, a revived local foods movement growth of farmers markets, backyard gardening and livestock farming, and farm-to-table restaurants (Jacobsen, 2015) are a natural fit with Graceland’s environment.

20 | P a g e  Shifting Energy Portfolios: Other states and countries are shifting away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy to lower costs and pollution. Researchers have argued that Iowa (and the Midwest more broadly) could reach a goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050, (Jacobsen, 2015).  Growing “Green Economy”: Economists predict a continually improving outlook for jobs that provide goods or services that benefit the environment, such as jobs in the renewable energy sector or in the recycling and waste management industries, (Muro et. al., 2016).  Waste Reduction and Efficiency: The cost of solid waste disposal has steadily risen in recent years, and rising energy and material costs have driven innovations in the efficient use of resources (such as reduction, reuse, recycling, and repair). (Jacobsen, 2015)  Do Students Prefer Urban Campuses? While some higher education researchers argue that data indicate that students prefer urban campuses (Lieberman, 2017), others argue that the current generation’s preference for cities has been exaggerated (Casselman, 2016).

Environmental Recommendations and Planning Considerations

Environmental resilience is required; every decision and every investment of resources provides an opportunity to become more prepared for environmental challenges. Graceland has resources to draw on to meet those challenges: collaborative programs with Sodexo, a hoop house, alumni with connections to the green economy, faculty with expertise in various disciplinary approaches to sustainability, and students with innovative ideas and a commitment to social change.

1. Acknowledge, Plan, and Act The first step toward a more stable environmental future is to communicate openly across all sectors of the university about what environmental change could mean for the future of the institution and to link those conversations to the institution’s decision-making processes. Then, we can begin to find ways to take small and large actions to make the institution more resilient to environmental change. For example, the university could take steps toward improving energy efficiency, managing rainwater in anticipation of increased frequency of storms, ensuring HVAC systems can handle extreme heat and humidity, and setting targets for waste reduction.

2. Leverage Resources & Alumni Connections to the Green Economy Graceland has a number of resources that it can draw upon to help meet the challenges and opportunities of climate change. Engaged alumni, with connections to the green economy, could provide significant opportunities for new programs and investment. Faculty, staff and students, with expertise and commitment to sustainability can become champions for new initiatives and programming that will enhance Graceland’s position in this growing field.

3. Develop Relevant Curriculum and Programming Future graduates will face environmental crises that exceed the capacity of our current

21 | P a g e imagination. It is important for Graceland to develop curriculum that prepares students to act wisely, creatively, and compassionately in a changing landscape. We have the opportunity to create innovative interdisciplinary programming and curriculum that meets the challenges and opportunities of an economy confronted with climate change. For example, several colleges and universities offer programs—such as University of Oregon’s Sustainable Cities Initiative and University of Iowa’s Initiative for Sustainable Communities—that bring together students, local businesses, city employees, and community members for hands-on sustainability projects, such as improvements to local bike infrastructure, local composting programs, and community education initiatives.

4. Make Environmental Weaknesses into Strengths A rural campus offers a beautiful pastoral landscape, unique experiences in gardening and practical landscaping, and safe outdoor recreational opportunities. A small campus means that students have much more power to make meaningful and lasting change. Graceland is surrounded by underserved communities that also need to prepare for a sustainable future. The university is positioned to make a significant difference in the region. Graceland could develop micro-targeted recruitment strategies to reach high school students with demonstrated interest in environmental and sustainability issues. In addition, community sustainability projects could be a component of the university’s retention efforts. The retention rate for college students involved in community projects is typically higher than average (Salvador, 2017), and projects related to Graceland’s unique environment could serve those larger goals.

22 | P a g e

Political Issues

Overview: Political issues are expected to become increasingly dynamic and intense related to education in the coming years. Decreasing access to funds has already been experienced and is expected to remain so for the foreseeable future. Maintaining faculty, staff, and administrators during these times will require innovative thinking and creativity to stay ahead of the competition of other global educational communities that are suddenly within reach. New policies regarding intellectual property, not only for faculty and administrators, but also for the protection of students’ rights will be required. Again, a lot of uncertainty will be anticipated in this sector.

Observations of Existing and Emerging Political Issues:

Missouri Community College to Offer Baccalaureate Degrees The Missouri House of Representatives voted 135-4 in March 2018 to allow Missouri’s community colleges to offer baccalaureate degrees. Passed in the Senate 31-1, the bill is now under review for potential approval by Governor Greitens. (Strater, 2018)

Federal Tax Reform President Trump recently signed the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act effectively implementing key changes with the U.S. tax code with significant impacts for years to come. Fortunately, the threat of eliminating many key education tax breaks was a false one. The Lifetime Learning Credit, Student Loan Interest Deduction, and Graduate School Tuition Exclusion were not affected (Frankel, 2018). With this in mind, the following is an overview of key changes within Higher Education. (See figure L in the Appendix.)  Families are now able to use tax-advantaged savings accounts to pay for elementary or secondary tuition and other education expenses, up to $10K per student, per year in K-12 tuition. Experts are concerned that some parents will use funds to cover K-12 private school education and not have adequate funds available for college (Powell, 2018).  Unrelated Business Taxable Income (UBTI), for a tax-exempt organization is determined from unrelated business activity. Under the new law, institutions should calculate UBTI separately for each non-related business activity. By calculating UBTI separate, institutions can no longer use losses from one non-related business activity to offset other, more profitable, activities. Institutions with several non- related business activities may want to consider restructuring their operations and/or considering other tax related measures (Steptoe & Johnson, 2018).  The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has the potential to create changes for U.S. nonprofits. Some experts predict that this could have a significant impact in charitable giving, with estimates ranging from $12B to $20B/year. Higher education may face declining small to mid-level contributions. Large-gift opportunities, however, could increase, because high-net-worth companies and individuals may have increased opportunities to deduct charitable gifts – and more financial resources. (Carter, 2018)  It is estimated that 21 million taxpayers will claim the new standard deduction in 2018, eliminating much of the tax related incentive for many lower and mid-income 23 | P a g e people to donate to charity. A recent study by the Lily School of Philanthropy projects direct correlation between the new standard deduction rates and a decline in the number of donations. The new tax law may also change the timing of when charitable contributions are given. In the future, it is anticipated that may key donors will begin to use ‘gift bunching’ strategies and Donor Advised Funds (DAFs) to help them maximize tax related benefits and deductions. (Carter, 2018)  As major-gift opportunities proliferate and the environment for leadership annual giving worsens, advancement professionals may find it tempting to shift their focus exclusively to the top of their giving pyramids. Doing so brings with it great risk. Ignoring mid-capacity donors today undermines the long-term major gift pipeline that colleges and universities rely on. Major gifts are the culmination of years of giving to and engagement with an institution, and underinvestment in this area will produce a dangerous degree of unsustainability for the advancement enterprise (Carter, 2018).

Political Recommendations and Planning Considerations

1.Adapt to Dynamic Changes in Missouri Community Colleges During this time of dynamic change, Graceland should continue to follow political developments at the local, state, and national levels. In Missouri, it appears very likely that the governor will sign a bill authorizing community colleges to offer baccalaureate degrees. This will continue to put pressure on private institutions as students (and their families) continue to seek the best value for their choice of college. The public community college system in Missouri is well-respected and could present a formidable challenge for recruiting in the coming years. For this reason, potential partnerships with the local community colleges, including bridge-to-master’s level programs should be explored.

2.Change Fundraising Efforts to Respond to New Federal Tax Law At the national level, the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act is expected to have a quantifiable impact on fundraising efforts in the coming years, as standard deduction levels will reduce the incentive for individuals and families to give. Graceland should be intentional to guard against a ‘lost-generation’ of donors. Ignoring mid-capacity donors today undermines the long-term major gift pipeline that colleges and universities rely on.

24 | P a g e Conclusion

This research report, from the Graceland Innovation Committee, identifies and discusses current trends and emerging issues that have the potential to affect the future of Graceland University. Our research reflects local & regional trends, and national/international findings based on the most recent news, research, and analysis from the past year (2018).

Our environmental scan focuses on key trends that influence the Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political framework of the higher education industry:  Social Trends o Generation Z & Y -- these students are generally more technologically- savvy, they are diverse and more likely to enter college underprepared, there are fewer of them (especially in the Midwest region), and they are more likely to come from low-income households  Technology Trends o Key technology developments include active learning, encryption, mobile learning, infrastructure and emerging technologies, integrated planning and advising for student success (iPASS), microcredentials, online education, and learning analytics  Economic Trends o While the current state of the economy is robust, changes in demographics, social trends and public policy represent a fundamental challenge for institutions within higher education. The need for strategic investment in new & innovative programs and services, to meet the changing market, is vital for future success.  Environmental Trends o While there are observable patterns of climate change that may represent a threat to the institution, there are also opportunities, such as movements toward small farms/local food, shifting energy portfolios, engaging in the ‘green economy’, and waste reduction & efficiency  Political Trends o In the state of Missouri, it appears very likely the Governor will sign a bill authorizing community colleges to offer baccalaureate degrees. This development could have significant impacts for Graceland. At the national level, the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act is expected to have a quantifiable impact on fundraising efforts in the coming years, as standard deduction levels will reduce the incentive for individuals and families to give

Findings from the environmental scan discussed within this report should form part of the foundation for future discussion and investigation into these oncoming trends and issues. The Innovation Committee’s goal is to create general awareness of changes that may impact Graceland University and the Higher Education industry.

25 | P a g e References

Arnett, A. A. (2017, March 12). 4 Trends Poised to Transform The Future Of Higher Education. Education Dive. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.educationdive.com/news/4-trends-poised-to-transform- the-future-of-higher-education/437923/

Barta, P, Chen, T., Jou, D., McEnananey, C., and Fuller, A. (2015) How International Students are Changing U.S. Colleges. Retrieved May 25, 2018, from http://graphics.wsj.com/international-students/

Beckwith, S. (2016, May 31). Data Analytics Rising In Higher Education. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.universitybusiness.com/article/data-analytics-rising-higher-education

Best Technology Jobs of 2018 (2018). Money.usnews.com. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://money.usnews.com/careers/best-jobs/rankings/best-technology-jobs

Bolton, K. (2018, March). Too Few Pell Grant Recipients Get Diplomas From Iowa Colleges, Universities. The Des Moines Register. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from features.desmoinesregister.com/news/student-loan- pell-grant-low-income-students-graduation-rate/#Home

Brown, J. L. (2016, November 22). Under the Hood of Higher Ed. Student Information Systems. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.universitybusiness.com/article/student-information-systems-under-hood- higher-ed

Bureau of Labor Statistics (2018a, May). Retrieved May 25, 2018, from: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000.

Bureau of Labor Statistics (2018b, May). Retrieved May 25, 2018, from: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm

Carter, Ledyard & Milburn, LLP (January 5, 2018). Tax Cuts and Jobs Act – Impact on Non-Profits. Retrieved May 12, 2018 from http://www.clm.com/publication.cfm?ID=5612

Casselman, Ben. (2016, March 15). Think Millennials Prefer The City? Think Again. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/think-millennials-prefer-the-city-think-again/

Climate Change and Disasters. (2018). UNHCR: The UN Refugee Agency. www.unhcr.org/en-us/climate- change-and-disasters.html.

Collins, B. (2018). The Potential of Learning Analytics in Higher Education. Wiley Education Services. Available at: https://edservices.wiley.com/potential-for-higher-education-learning-analytics/ [Accessed 13 Apr. 2018].

Conway, M. (2014, September 11). Environmental Scanning: What It Is and How to Do It. Retrieved May 18, 2018, from https://www.slideshare.net/mkconway/environmental-scanning-what-it-is-and-how-to-do-it- 38993952

Daft, R., L. (2010). Organizational Theory and Design, Tenth Edition.

26 | P a g e

Davidson, C. N. (2018, January 25). How To Think About Active Learning And Its Benefits (Opinion). Inside Higher Ed. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2018/01/25/how- think-about-active-learning-and-its-benefits-opinion

De Witt C., Gloerfeld C. (2018) Mobile Learning and Higher Education. In: Kergel D., Heidkamp B., Telléus P., Rachwal T., Nowakowski S. (eds) The Digital Turn in Higher Education. Springer VS, Wiesbaden

Dunlap, Riley E., and Aaron M. McCright (28 Apr. 2009). A Widening Gap: Republican and Democratic Views on Climate Change. Environment Magazine. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from www.environmentmagazine.org/archives/back%20issues/september-october%202008/dunlap-full.html.

Environmental Scan 2017-18. (2017, July). National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE). Retrieved May 19, 2018, from https://www.naceweb.org/talent-acquisition/trends-and- predictions/environmental-scan-2017-18/

Franek, R. (n.d.). Top 10 College Majors. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.princetonreview.com/college-advice/top-ten-college-majors

Frankel, Matthew (December 29, 2017). Your Complete Guide to the 2018 Tax Changes. The Motley Fool. Retrieved May 12, 2018, fromhttps://www.fool.com/taxes/2017/12/29/your-complete-guide-to-the-2018- tax-changes.aspx

Friedman, J. (2018). 4 Expectations for Online Education in 2018. U.S. News and World Report. Available at: https://www.usnews.com/higher-education/online-education/articles/2018-01-18/4-expectations-for- online-education-in-2018 [Accessed 13 Apr. 2018].

Friedman, J. (2016, November 3). 10 Types of Credentials You Can Earn Online. U.S. News and World Report. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.usnews.com/education/online- education/slideshows/10-types-of-credentials-you-can-earn-online

Getting to Know Gen Z (2015). Barnes and Noble College. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://next.bncollege.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Gen-Z-Research-Report-Final.pdf.

Glass, Gene V and C. Vrasidas. (2002). Distance Education and Distributed Learning (Current Perspectives on Applied Information Technologies). Information Age Publishing.

Grabmeier, J. (2015, July 01). 70 Percent Of College Students Stressed About Finances. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://news.osu.edu/news/2015/07/01/financial-wellness/

Grama, Joanna (May 20, 2014). Just in Time Research: Data Breaches in Higher Education. Educause.edu. Available at: https://www.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ecp1402.pdf [Accessed 13 Apr. 2018].

Hatch, J., & O'Leary, B. (2016, August 16). Where Does Your Freshman Class Come From? The Chronicle of Higher Education. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.chronicle.com/interactives/where-does- your-freshman-class-come-from

27 | P a g e Hershbein, B. (2016, July 29). A College Degree Is Worth Less If You Are Raised Poor. The Brookings Institute. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility- memos/2016/02/19/a-college-degree-is-worth-less-if-you-are-raised-poor/

Higher Education Reports: Online and Distance Education (2018). Babson Survey Research Group. Available at: https://www.onlinelearningsurvey.com/highered.html [Accessed 13 Apr. 2018].

Higher Education’s Top 10 Strategic Technologies and Trends for 2018 (2018, January 29th). Educause. Available at: https://library.educause.edu/resources/2018/1/higher-educations-top-10-strategic- technologies-and-trends-for-2018 [Accessed 13 Apr. 2018].

Hillman, Nicholas and Weichman, Taylor (2016) Education Deserts: The Continued Significance of “Place” in the Twenty-First Century. American Council on Education. from http://www.acenet.edu/news- room/Documents/Education-Deserts-The-Continued-Significance-of-Place-in-the-Twenty-First- Century.pdf.

Gordon, Robert L. (2017). Mobile Learning: A Rising Trend in Education. Online Learning Tips. Available at: https://onlinelearningtips.com/2017/01/mobile-learning-trend-education/ [Accessed 13 Apr. 2018].

Integrated Planning and Advising for Student Success (iPASS Initiative) (2018) Achieving the Dream. Available at: http://www.achievingthedream.org/resources/initiatives/integrated-planning-and-advising- for-student-success-ipass-initiative [Accessed 13 Apr. 2018].

Irvine, G. (2018). Future of Higher Education: Micro-Credentials & Badging – Part 1. Chalk & Wire. Available at: http://www.chalkandwire.com/future-higher-ed-micro-credentials-badging-p1/ [Accessed 13 Apr. 2018].

Jacobson, Mark Z., et al. (2015). 100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, And Sunlight (WWS) All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for the 50 United States. Energy & Environmental Science 8.7: 2093-2117.

Kane, L. (2017, December 04). Meet Generation Z, The 'Millennials On Steroids' Who Could Lead The Charge For Change In The US. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from http://www.businessinsider.com/generation-z-profile-2017-9

Kelly, R. (2018, January 11). 7 Ed Tech Trends to Watch in 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://campustechnology.com/articles/2018/01/11/7-ed-tech-trends-to-watch-in-2018.aspx

Kim, J. (2018, January 3). An Alternative List of 7 Trends for 2018. Inside Higher Ed. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/technology-and-learning/alternative-list-7-trends-2018

Kolbert, Elizabeth (2014). The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History. A&C Black.

Kozinsky, S. (2017, July 24). How Generation Z Is Shaping the Change In Education. Forbes Magazine. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/sievakozinsky/2017/07/24/how- generation-z-is-shaping-the-change-in-education/#9269eb565208

Kyler, J. (2003). Assessing Your External Environment: STEEP Analysis. from www.competia.com, 33(1).

28 | P a g e Lieberman, Mark (27 Sept. 2017). How Colleges Should Rethink Their Strategic Planning Processes. Inside Higher Ed. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from www.insidehighered.com/views/2017/01/31/how- colleges-should-rethink-their-strategic-planning-processes-essay.

Luber, George, and Michael McGeehin (2008). Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events. American Journal of Preventive Medicine. 35.5 (2008): 429-435.

Managing Cybersecurity in Higher Education. (2018). Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.ue.org/about- ue/profiles-in-managing-risk/managing-cybersecurity-in-higher-education

Morrison, D. (2012, September 23). How-to Remain Relevant in Higher Ed with 'Active Learning'. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://onlinelearninginsights.wordpress.com/2012/09/18/how-to-remain-relevant-in- higher-ed-with-active-learning/

Muro, Mark, et al. (28 Sept. 2016). Sizing the Clean Economy: A National and Regional Green Jobs Assessment. Brookings Institute. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from www.brookings.edu/research/sizing- the-clean-economy-a-national-and-regional-green-jobs-assessment/.

Online Report Card - Tracking Online Education in the United States, 2015. (2015). Online Learning Consortium. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://onlinelearningconsortium.org/read/online-report-card- tracking-online-education-united-states-2015/

Patane, M. (2018, March 07). How A Trade War Could Hit Iowa. The Gazette. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/how-a-trade-war-could-hit-iowa-20180307

Powell, Farren (January 8, 2018). Five Ways the New Tax Law Affects Paying for College. U.S. News and World Report. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/paying-for- college/articles/2018-01-08/5-ways-the-new-tax-law-affects-families-paying-for-college

Reeves, T. C., & Hedberg, J. G. (2003). Interactive Learning Systems Evaluation. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Educational Technology. Page 208

Report of the Smith College Study Group on Climate Change (March 2017). Smith College. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from smith.edu/sites/default/files/media/Documents/Sustainability/SGCC-Report- FINAL.pdf

Riebeek, Holli (March, 2005). The Rising Cost of Natural Hazards. NASA. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php.

Roscorla, T. (2018). 8 Cybersecurity Challenges Facing Higher Education. Available at: http://www.centerdigitaled.com/higher-ed/8-Cybersecurity-Challenges-Facing-Higher-Education.html [Accessed 13 Apr. 2018].

Steptoe & Johnson LLC (February 12, 2018) Tax Reform Could Change Taxable Income for Colleges & Universities, from http://www.steptoe-johnson.com/higher-ed-UBTI

29 | P a g e Student Loan Debt and Housing Report (2017). National Association of Realtors, American Student Assistance. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2017- student-loan-debt-and-housing-09-26-2017.pdf.

Successful Data Management in Higher Education Institutions (2018). Dataentryoutsourced.com. Available at: https://www.dataentryoutsourced.com/blog/data-management-in-higher-education-institutions/ [Accessed 13 Apr. 2018].

Takagi, Gene. The New Tax Law and Its Impact on Non-Profits (January 28, 2018). Neo Law Group, from http://www.nonprofitlawblog.com/new-tax-law-impact-nonprofits-part-2/

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, H.R. 1, Non-Profit Analysis of the Final Tax Law (February 22, 2018). National Council of Non-Profits. From https://www.councilofnonprofits.org/sites/default/files/documents/tax-bill- summary-chart.pdf

The Future of the Degree: How Colleges Can Survive the New Credential Economy. (Aug. 2017). The Chronicle of Higher Education.

Who is Gen Z? (2018, February 09). Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://www.barna.com/who-is-gen-z/

Wood, M. (2017, February 9). Generation Nation: Redefining America's Boomers, Xers, Millennials, and Gen Z. Retrieved May 12, 2018, from https://greenbookblog.org/2017/02/09/generation-nation-redefining- americas-boomers-xers-millennials-and-gen-z/

30 | P a g e Appendix

Figure A:

Figure B: By 2044, whites will no longer comprise a racial majority in the U.S.

Figure C: Graceland shows a corresponding increase in racial/ethnic diversity, from 26% in 2011-12 to 37% in 2017-18.

31 | P a g e Figure D: The number of Lamoni Campus students from low-income backgrounds has increased, as indicated by the percentage of students who qualify for federal Pell Grant assistance.

Graceland University Pell Grant Recipients 2017-18 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 First-time Freshmen # Students 140 137 156 171 165 % Pell-eligible 55% 54% 54% 61% 51% All Undergraduate # Students 573 598 644 663 668 % Pell-eligible 41% 41% 42% 42% 43%

Figure E: In Spring 2016, Graceland hired a new Retention Director. Within eight months, Graceland’s freshmen-to- sophomore retention rate had increased more than 5%. However, Graceland’s retention rates are now at an all-time low.

Figure F:

32 | P a g e Figure G: Less prepared, more financially stressed

Demographic Reality: Demographic Reality: More Students from Lesser Means More First Generation Students 51% of US public school students were low income in 2013.

Figure H: Compared to peer institutions, Graceland enrolls a lower percentage of students from its own backyard.

33 | P a g e Figure I:

Figure J: Iowa's colleges and universities received more than $655.5M in Pell Grant disbursements between 2010 and 2016

34 | P a g e Figure K:

35 | P a g e Figure L:

36 | P a g e

37 | P a g e

38 | P a g e

Figure M:

39 | P a g e