August 20, 2021 The Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)

The Independent SAGE Report 46

The ‘Following the Science’ Timeline: What SAGE and Independent SAGE advised as key behavioural mitigations versus what the Westminster Govern- ment did January 2020 — July 2021

www.independentSAGE.org Submitted to The UK Government and the People of Great Britain @independentSAGE & Northern Ireland by Sir David King, former Chief Scientific Adviser, YouTube: IndependentSAGE UK Government, Chair of Independent SAGE The ‘Following the Science’ Timeline: What SAGE and Independent SAGE advised as key behavioural mitigations versus what the Westminster Government did

January 2020 – July 2021

The ‘Following the Science’ (FTS) Timeline charts the main behavioural recommendations from SAGE1 and Independent SAGE scientists about measures needed to minimise the spread of COVID-19. The recommendations are presented alongside what the Westminster Government2 implemented and when.

The FTS Timeline is organized with SAGE and Independent SAGE advice above the date line and what the UK Government did below. Selected news and other events, recommendations and decisions appear in blue.

The FTS Timeline focuses on four main areas – hand and respiratory hygiene, face coverings, physical distancing, and self-isolation. In addition, it includes selected events (e.g., lockdown timings) as an aide memoire to the overall trajectory of the pandemic. Some dates about the airborne nature of Covid are included since they have implications for behaviours like wearing face coverings or opening windows. The timeline does not systematically include travel regulations or the testing and vaccination programmes.

The information underpinning the FTS Timeline draws on SAGE papers and minutes; Independent SAGE reports, statements, and media; media reports of SAGE papers; media articles including trailed and leaked information about upcoming changes to guidance and regulation, and the Institute for Government’s ‘Timeline of UK coronavirus lockdowns, March 2020 to March 2021.’ The timeline builds on and extends Independent SAGE’s November 2020 paper on UK government messaging and communication and Independent SAGE’s February 2021 ‘Timeline of Reports.’

Areas of divergence of UK government actions from scientific advice include:

• Delaying the implementation of requirements to wear face coverings • Confusing and contradictory messaging and communications • Focusing on punitive rather than supportive measures to try to get people to self-isolate • Reducing to 1m / ‘1m plus’ • The ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme • Delaying the second ‘circuit-breaker lockdown’ in autumn 2020 • Delaying the announcement of and changing Xmas restrictions • Setting out a ‘road map’ based on fixed dates while talking about ‘data not dates’ • Using ‘personal responsibility’ messaging instead of implementing an evidence-based risk-management strategy • Lifting all remaining restrictions in one go on 19th July 2021

1 Strategic Advisory Group on Emergencies 2 Primarily having jurisdiction over England The ‘Following the Science’ Timeline What SAGE and Independent SAGE advised as key behavioural mitigations versus what the Westminster Government did Jan 2020-July 2021

UK Govt 6 January UK COVID-19 deaths SAGE pass 100,000 Indie SAGE 1 April 8 January SAGE SPI B fines for breaching 8 December ‘Safe Schools Policy’ Covid regulations will impact poorer households “First person receives News and Pfizer jab in UK” 1 November 9 January "UK govt admits NHS other events UK govt advisors, 2 April COVID-19 app 10 December Is COVID-19 airborne?(Nature) 9June 8 July SAGEsummarises the systematically fails to health experts call for Dr Eilir Hughes “hands "Mounting evidence ventilation actions warn users to self- tighter lockdown “An effective COVID-19 needed face space ‘replace’" restrictions 7 April Find, Test, Trace, Isolate suggests coronavirus is isolate" Face masks have ‘minimal and Support (FTTIS) airborne"(Nature) effect’ programme is essential” 12 October 4 November 13 January 11 April 9 July SAGEscientist says a "Anger as lockdown “Physical distancing Indie SAGEmembers and face coverings 13 April 22June “Review advice on “circuit-breaker” is rules updated at last 16 February raise concerns of needed within weeks minute to even more important “Indian” variant In future, measures should Independent SAGE warns airborne transmission & Recommends alternatives to be lifted one by one consider face coverings” include compulsory face 11 December to mitigate punishment and fines for against reducing social transmission of the 3 June coverings in secondary breaches of regulations 30 April distancing from 2m 16 October school and college Urge rethink in B117 variant” 14 April approach to Christmas Sustaining behaviours Travel quarantine needs engagement 13 July Emergency 6-week plan public areas" and support “SAGE recommends no includes circuit breaker, 19 February needed to keep 3 February changes to measures” Consultation on face 14 January transmission low coverings reinstate 2m distancing, "A ‘Sustainable Suppression’ NERVTAG recommends and masks in schools 24 December A more effective Strategy for Keeping Society 11 November system for people 4 June facemasks 28 April Rescind Christmas Day Open” includes support for 15 July "UK COVID-19 deaths arriving in the UK is Stick with 2 metres 3May restrictions and place people from to self-isolate Calls to modify the final stage pass 50,000, the England in Tier 4 required of the roadmap Independent SAGEcalls 16 September Independent SAGEholds for public information highest in Europe" 20 February first public meeting. 14 January campaign about face SPI-Brecommends financial 14 May Physical distancing first Recommends ensuring coverings 28 December 18 June discussed 14 March and other targeted support 13 November Public adherence to financial security and to improve rates of self- UK government UK government protective behaviours is 6-point plan for dealing Continuing need for support Behavioural scientists wearing masks “to Warnings about a new 22 August isolation or quarantine communication reset scientists tell Boris important throughout COVID-19 variant spreading with B.1.617.2 ‘India’ measures recommend good protect other people.” needed Johnson to close vaccination roll-out ‘Delta’ variant 7 July communication and in some parts of England “Fines and police enforcement schools in January” Roadmap should slow and support for those in 12May of self-isolation will have 20 September isolation removing all restrictions is Recommendations for either little benefit or a Ten-point plan to avoid 23 November 15 January 22 March dangerous and premature. negative effect” 17 May government include national lockdown includes Plans for safer winter 29 December SAGE recommends “A Supported isolation is hand and respiratory limiting indoor social break needed COVID-19 cases rise comprehensive package crucial to break community Likelihood of full lockdown hygiene interaction, supported above 40,000, the of information and transmission restrictions being lifted on “Covid restrictions including 16 March 27 August isolation, re-establishing 2 June 21 'close to nil' 22 January 24 November highest recorded in a support” to “improve masks could return in 3 SAGE advice changes 19May COVID-19 Safe Workplace metre rule single day self-isolation and according to ministers and SAGE first meeting BMA warns COVID weeks if hospital admissions to recommend social Charter discusses “poor quarantine” officials soar, Sage scientists warn” distancing SAGE “The importance Winter Plan is ‘full of integration of ventilation, lack of sanitisers, problems with 21 September of risks’ 30 December measures (hand hygiene A nationwide lockdown and face coverings) in social distancing” SAGErecommends circuit breaker 27 November with immediate effect some settings was is vitally necessary now noted.” An Urgent Plan for Safer Schools

2020 2021

January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July

1 June 3 August 8 March 12 June Eat Out to Help Out 2 December Phased re-opening 4 October Roadmap step 1 starts 8th Boris Johnson hints 10 May of schools in scheme launches Second March ‘serious, serious lockdown 14 May 24 January Measures begin to ease England Boris Johnson admits 4 January concern’ over variant Eat Out to Help Out ends; will delay 21 June PM misses COBRA 8 August Johnson: “Personal 15 June scheme may have Englandona Boris Johnson announces third lockdown exit 10 April three-tier responsibility and New UK govt face fuelled COVID-19 spike national lockdown, but says common sense” "Stay home this Easter" Start of diverging Non-essential mask ‘restrictions’ system children should return to approaches across shops reopen come into effect school 14 June the four nations of in England 4 July 21st decision reversed 15 March the UK Social 14 October 16 December 17 May distancing 14 August Isolation for over-70s 23 June A new three-tier system 6 January guidance Lockdown restrictions Boris Johnson Roadmap step 3 trialled 'within weeks' of Covid-19 restrictions resists calls for Relaxing of changes to "one eased further starts in England England enters third national 2m social metre plus” Christmas lockdown including schools restrictions distancing 25 August closed rule trialed 18 July 16 April Govt changes 31 October 16 March Local 19 December Lockdown extended guidance on face PM announces a second 29 March Daily briefings begin. for ‘at least’ three authorities in masks for secondary lockdown in England to Boris Johnson “Now is the time for weeks. Government 29 June England gain school students prevent a “medical and announces everyone to stop non- additional sets out ‘five tests’ UK’s first local moral disaster” for the new Tier 4 essential contact and powers to NHS and tougher travel” lockdown in enforce social 13 July 10 May Leicester Christmas distancing restrictions Matt Lucas’s impression Whitty: “it is of Boris Johnson and UK essential we change 9 September 26 May behaviour slowly “Stay home, protect the NHS, Govt messaging goes 23 July 23 December 9 February Dominic Cummings gives save lives” launched viral Hands, Face, Space 5 November and steadily.” UK govt UKgovt UK govt announces new evidence and apologises publishes Second national lockdown announces travel quarantine restrictions 12 April for travels during face mask comes into force in England tougher Roadmap step 2 lockdown 13 July 24 May guidance restrictions Masks to remain Boris Johnson announces from Boxing 23 February Exposure of Chief 24 November 27 May compulsory on London ‘rule of six’ Day tube, buses and trains Adviser to Boris Johnson “Roadmap out of lockdown: Hancock confirms that 30 July Four UK nations agree Almost all restrictions could Dominic Cummings's trip Christmas household B.1.617.2 ("India" variant) to Barnard Castle UK govt extends be lifted by June 21, Boris is dominant in England. COVID-19 mixing rules 26 December Johnson announces” 19 July 23 March self-isolation More areas of UK lockdown announced Harries says remain "Freedom day" period 22 September England enter 27 May Tier4 "vigilant" Test and Trace 'Work from home if you can' restrictions programme launched and 10pm nightlife ban

28 September Up to £10,000 fine for failure to self-isolate in England