8 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS MUMBAI | 26 JANUARY 2019 >

of the UP Assembly elections. Many in the Rahul Gandhi camp feel this was tantamount Will it be a package deal? to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory: Salvoes over Rahul and the Congress were just beginning What Priyanka's entry into active politics means for the Congress and why Robert to assert themselves in UP when they were trapped into an alliance. Anyway, things open defecation Vadra might be calling attention to himself bounced back soon after and it was Priyanka who made seating, logistics and other arrange- nder the radar, a has stuck till today when she is the mother of tion when he died in 2013. It was the Nehru- ments for the big day when Rahul took over as great debate broke two children. Gandhi grandson Raihan who lit Arun Nehru’s Congress President. U out this month She looks like her grandmother. But is she pyre. The extended family means a lot to her: In the last one month, the Congress system about what is arguably like her? Indira Gandhi always took care of those When she went to New York (to be by her daugh- has seen many upheavals. Those who were India’s most pressing who had stood by her whether they had won ter Miraya’s side as she recovered from a knee hoping younger people would be promoted problem. That the contro- elections or lost them (see Pranab Mukherjee’s procedure) she stayed with cousin Radhika, and the old guard pensioned off have been versy has been sparked by account of his relations with Indira Gandhi) and Arun Nehru’s daughter. disappointed. It is Kamal Nath and Ashok a research paper is bizarre, never forgot a slight. Priyanka doesn’t think she She was educated at the Welhams Girls’ Gehlot who have bounced back and many but the oddities do not end is either ruthless or vindictive. She is known to School and that’s where she was when Indira insecurities have been laid to rest. And now there. Changes in open have told friends, “you think I’m like my grand- Gandhi was assassinated. Since then she has there’s another disruption in the form of defecation in rural north mother? Wait till you’ve had dealings with yearned for stability and a ‘normal’ life for her Priyanka. This could even extend to Robert COUNTRY CODE India: 2014-2018 is pub- PLAIN POLITICS Rahul”. This much is true. Priyanka values for- family and her children. Rahul Gandhi said Vadra who has never hidden his political lished by the research giveness. That was the motive behind her visit there was never any question about her joining ambitions and was quick to claim proprietorial RAHUL JACOB groups Research Institute ADITI PHADNIS to the prison in Tamil Nadu where the person active politics but she didn’t want to jump into rights over Priyanka via congratulations deliv- for Compassionate convicted of killing her father, Nalini, is incar- the fray until her children were ‘settled’. Now ered over Twitter (ask yourself if you would Economics (RICE) and Accountability Initiative. The authors n Uttar Pradesh, especially eastern Uttar cerated. She said she wanted to understand why both are at university and are considered to take to Twitter to congratulate your wife on acknowledge that millions more Indians in villages in India Pradesh, everyone is called bhaiya – her father had to be killed. In the 1999 election, be settled. her promotion — unless your objective was to own a latrine since 2014, but assert that 44 per cent of the I whether you’re the baby of the family or the when the man thought to be behind the Bofors But this is not to say she wasn’t active in call attention to yourself). While the average rural populations in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and eldest. But bhaiyas are always men. So it is a scandal, Arun Nehru, who abandoned Rajiv politics. Former cricketer Navjot Singh Sidhu Congressman is loyal to Priyanka — and Uttar Pradesh still defecate in the open. As ending the prac- matter of mystery why Priyanka Gandhi is Gandhi to defect to the VP Singh-led Janata Dal says quite openly that it was Priyanka who maybe just a little smitten by her — many tice of open defecation in rural India has long been an issue called bhaiyaji by constituents of Amethi and and later the Bharatiya Janata Party, contested brought him in politics. This is endorsed by would be reluctant at having to defend a pack- of convincing people not to go into the fields to defecate Rae Bareli. from Rae Bareli she asked voters only one mem- Punjab Chief Minister Amrinder Singh, who age deal. Most have noted speculation that it even when there is a toilet, the study’s finding that 23 per Here’s why. When Rahul and Priyanka were orable question: “The man who stabbed my has no reason to be happy to have had Sidhu is from Moradabad, Vadra’s home town and cent of those who own a latrine still defecate in the open is children and used to visit the constituency with father in the back — how did you let such a man foisted on him (hockey legend Pargat Singh Priyanka’s sasural that Rahul Gandhi will start worrying. The survey, conducted between September and their grandmother Indira or father Rajiv, both even enter Rae Bareli?” was also brought to the Congress by Priyanka, his election campaign — and maybe Priyanka December 2018, is based on interviews of almost 10,000 peo- had very short hair. So much so that most con- And yet, the same Priyanka Gandhi made Amrinder says). She was the one who pushed will share the stage with him. The coming ple across these four states. stituents thought for a long time that Priyanka up with the family when Nehru was on his and pushed Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh and weeks and months should be interesting for These findings clash with the numbers on the Swachh was a boy. Hence the sobriquet bhaiyaji, that deathbed. Priyanka took charge of the crema- Dimple Yadav to enter into a partnership ahead the new equations they reveal. Bharat website that are updated before your eyes as if they were those giant information boards at a busy railway station. When I last looked, more than 547,000 villages had been declared open defecation free and 91 million toilets had been TEA WITH BS > YASHWANT SINHA | FORMER FINANCE MINISTER built since October 2, 2014. If, in reality, some 98 per cent of India now can be classified as achieving this basic level of sanitation, the country should see a massive drop in water- The former BJP leader says he borne diseases and child malnutrition. Children not con- told that group how during tinually fighting diarrhea and dysentery in villages has impli- Advani’s tenure as party president cations for potentially raising the educational achievements the standard operating procedure of an entire generation of young Indians if our schools can Rebel with a cause? was for the leaders to meet at 11 am be improved as well. in the party office to discuss the Given this extraordinary turnaround in the number of Sinha tells Archis Mohan all that is wrong with GST, news of the day, and decide the toilets built under the Modi government, a research paper party line. “It used to be a con- by a small group of academics and researchers contradicting demonetisation and the current crop of BJP leaders vivial gathering. There was no these claims ought to have been swatted away easily enough. tension. Suddenly everything Instead, the government, in a response to IndiaSpend, accus- n a cold winter day, Sinha sits gathering there, and was pleased no his disillusionment with Modi began changed, and I am not talking of es the researchers “of grossly misleading the reader”. Several snug near an oil heater end that she was willing to have a with the government’s demonetisa- the period after we formed the gov- paragraphs later, the government even thunders against arti- O behind a wooden desk in the chat with me over lunch. It struck me tion decision, which he calls a “silly ernment. It started changing with cles on the RICE report. “Given the glaring gaps in the afore- small but well-furnished study of his years later that Nilima Sinha, the thing to do” and “advertising that silly Nitin Gadkari who brought in a cor- mentioned survey, the ministry would like to highlight that tastefully maintained house in Noida. author of several children’s books, approach” by replacing ~1,000 cur- porate style,” he says. reports based on such erroneous, inconsistent and biased A shelf full of books covering the was Sinha’s wife. rency notes with ~2,000. “I was seeing Sinha says that earlier any state or studies serve to mislead readers,” the ministry’s response to entire length and breadth of a wall Sinha, who had chuckled all along the terrific mandate of 2014 being district leader could come with the IndiaSpend concludes. stands behind him, and his swivel remembering his times with the wasted day by day,” Sinha says. hope to meet Advani, even if he did What is distressing about the shrillness of the ministry chair helps reach any book he might “angry old socialists” of the erstwhile The former minister says “who- not have an appointment. “I told response is that both sides have so much to admire about consider thumbing through. Not that Janata Party, gives out a hearty laugh ever whispered in his ears that go for Advani and Joshi all of this. I said this them. Under Parameswaran Iyer, secretary, drinking water Sinha, at 81, needs any reference as I end my anecdote. Sinha, in turn, demonetisation, misled him com- was not the party which I had joined. and sanitation, the Swachh Bharat mission has built toilets notes. He recalls conversations and recounts how he once physically pletely” and that the PM lacked the You people were so liberal; it was so at a speed that resembles a military operation. Iyer has led events from years past, and spews stopped one of the “angry socialists” sagacity to know that it would not different, what has happened? We from the front. On occasion, he has lifted soil out of a ‘fallow’ granular economic data to bolster a from marching out of a party meeting work, especially after he had created then flagged the issue, but then they pit latrine to make the point that the soil was completely point he is making. in protest. The leader was upset that the infrastructure for converting managed, I must say they managed harmless and odourless compost. Prime Minister Narendra The publisher and promoter of a party resolution sought to insult the black money into white through the Advani, Joshi and Shanta Kumar Modi singled him out for praise at a public event in Bihar Sinha’s new book, India Unmade: socialist creed, while Sinha wanted to Jan Dhan Yojana. “Then all the mon- and that is why whatever we had last year. How the Modi Government Broke the prevent the leader from walking right ey came back so he must have felt started died a natural death.” Sinha On the other side of the debate is the dedicated team at Economy, would have him focus the into the arms of the press corps wait- cheated,” Sinha says. I ask him about says he then realised that he could RICE. The institute is led by two young American academics, interview on its contents, but the for- ing outside the venue and the episode the PM’s working style, and Sinha not count on the support of even Dean Spears and Diane Coffey, whose book Where India mer Union finance minister, despite sparking a controversy. says how people close to Modi have the seniors in the party to raise Goes: Abandoned Toilets, Stunted Growth and the Costs of years in the bureaucracy, does not Sinha was one of the earliest to told him that he does not read, only issues, and wrote his famous article Caste featured a foreword by Angus Deaton, the Nobel lau- take orders easily. So we sit down for back Narendra Modi as the prime wants power point presentations, in the Indian Express. reate in economics, who praised the thoroughness of their a freewheeling chat. ministerial candidate of the which he will grasp but give him 10- The former finance minister research. It was the best book I read in 2017. I was quite embarrassed when he Bharatiya Janata Party, and now he pages of some note he will not read. says it was “cheap” of the party to The authors of the paper are dispassionate and find good had got up to welcome me in, and tell is one of the PM’s most vocal critics. On the goods and services tax accuse him of looking for a sinecure. news as well in this government’s efforts: “We find important him as much and about how I had During our conversation, as we sip (GST), Sinha says he felt “particularly He says the party wanted him to con- reductions in open defecation. In the region (the four states) met him with my parents, who were the lightly brewed green tea, Sinha is distressed” because he, as the finance test the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, but he as a whole, open defecation declined from approximately 70 acquainted with him, on a couple of unsparing in his criticism of the PM minister in the Vajpayee govern- did not and that is when they picked per cent of people over two years old in 2014, to approximately occasions in the early-1980s. I was and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. ment, had carried out many reforms his son Jayant Sinha as the party’s 44 per cent of people over two years old in 2018. This 26 per- barely seven or eight-years-old then. Despite his advancing years, Sinha in indirect tax, and settled on three candidate from that seat. He says he centage point reduction in individual open defecation over He was heading the Delhi Transport has been on the road for the last 14 rates — merit rate, demerit rate and quit the IAS, with no hope of where a four year period (more than six percentage points per year) Corporation, and was on the brink of months since the run up to the a mean rate. Sinha says his desire was his next salary might come from, with was rapid compared to the likely rate of decline in prior years.” quitting the Indian Administrative Gujarat Assembly polls in December to move to a single rate, and he was 12 years of service left, and turned The problem in part is the Modi government repeats the Service (IAS) after uproar over the 2017, addressing public meetings and told that over 90 per cent of all indi- down V P Singh’s offer when he want- previous government’s emphasis on toilets built, rather than death of an employee in police firing press conferences across the country rect tax revenue collected came those ed to make him a minister because championing behavioural change as vociferously as they do subsequent to a workers’ strike. I tell to highlight the “mismanagement” days was from mean rate. He he thought Singh was not being fair. so much else. Indeed, surveying whether people are not just him that I remember the meeting for he believes Modi and Jaitley have bemoans how the finance minister “I have invited uncertainties in my building toilets but building the right kind of toilets and also the sole reason that it was probably wrought on India. did not provide leadership to the life with my unfortunate attitude. I using them is an almost insurmountable task, even by the my first taste of a carbonated bever- Sinha says the Shramik Patrakar state finance ministers who cannot have presented five Budgets and two impossible challenges that trying to govern India represents. age that he had offered us, despite my Sangh, founded in 1941, invited him have the national vision, and the interim Budgets. I did not want Past experience and past surveys have shown that even mother’s protests. in early December to deliver their reform was hurriedly implemented. crumbs like finance commission toilets constructed in villages are sometimes used as grana- A year later and having quit the annual lecture, but pleaded they did Sinha says he would pore over the chief or NITI Aayog or BRICS Bank ries. Caste concerns has over the years prompted people to IAS, Sinha was the new star in the not have money to pay for his busi- minutest of details when he pre- chairmanship,” he says. build open pit latrines that are too big to be inexpensive or Janata Party as Chandra Shekhar, the ness-class airfare, or a five-star hotel pared the annual Budget as finance ILLUSTRATION BY BINAY SINHA Sinha says the BJP leadership then to crave the kind of septic tank toilets that are not practical party chief, laid the foundation stone stay. Alluding to the fact that he is not minister. “Do you get the feeling tried to make it personal, and made in the absence of abundant supplies of water and modern for an ashram in Bhondsi, then a only tall but also old and needs leg when you see the finance minister of the Modi government’s economic his son pen a counter article. They sewage systems. As Spears put it to me and a colleague four dusty village outside the Gurugram space, Sinha says he sat in the reading his Budget speech? I mean policies, Sinha and some other senior wanted to convert it into a family bat- years ago, “Simply building latrines is not enough. We have city. However, I remember little of cramped economy class seat. In the one would have read that speech 30- leaders had flagged problems ailing tle between the father and the son. to encourage people to use these. We have a culture of (belief Sinha, other than that he appeared run up to the Gujarat polls, Sinha cov- 40 times before actually getting up the BJP. That was right after the BJP’s Sinha concedes, when I ask him, that in) purity and pollution that teaches people that it is bad to the tallest and most smartly turned ered the length and breadth of the in the Lok Sabha and reading it. You defeat in the Bihar Assembly poll in he was indeed queering the pitch for accumulate faeces near their home.” Many millions of toilets out in a sea of old men clad in white state, travelling by road to address will not fumble because you know November 2015, and the signatories his son by doing what he is doing. have been built in the past four years, but it still seems khadi kurta-pyajama. As a member meetings in Rajkot, Surat and what follows... every word... almost,” to the press statement included Murli As it was time for me to leave, I ask implausible that India has, in effect, become a completely of his household staff serves green Ahmedabad. he says, pointing at 400 changes in Manohar Joshi, Shanta Kumar and L him what would be his fatherly advice different country overnight. tea with cashews and biscuits, I tell Sinha, who served as finance min- GST rates as evidence the FM did not K Advani. Sinha says none in the par- to his son. “My fatherly advice is that Sinha how I was much surprised to ister in the Chandra Shekhar and Atal “apply his mind”. ty had the courage to speak those I would not give you any advice. You discover my favourite author in the Bihari Vajpayee governments, says However, even before his criticism words now. decide for yourself,” he signs off. Too rich for dole, too poor to thrive Joy of seeing the tricolour fly

over ~1 lakh per annum, which is the ing as a watchman in Noida, earning sequences were we to declare them myself with the flag even though I don’t income cutoff for most government about ~8,000 a month,” he told me. His openly. Should the national anthem be care much for political parties, their schemes. But the very nature of the wife stayed home with their infant son. sung in movie theatres? Should jingo- manifestos or agendas. unorganised sector leaves them “My employer was a kind hearted gen- ism be enforced through coercion and I have noticed that not too many vulnerable to economic shocks of all tleman who saw how hard it was for me the fear of law? Our answers might occupants of cars bother themselves sorts — job loss, ill health, market to manage,” he said. “So he paid for my prove provocative in the current cli- with the petty commerce related to buy- downturns and more. driving lessons.” Now, Singh earns mate, yet the hanging of the flag is ing these flags. Many on scooters and In the last week, I’ve met two people ~12,000 plus overtime every month. something we regard with the same motorcycles do, as do those who ride in who’ve been chafing at a modest rise in “This year, when my daughter was born, enthusiasm as putting up a Christmas auto-rickshaws. This week, I had reason their incomes. The first of them is I wanted to enroll her under the Ladli tree, or lighting diyas at Diwali, or buy- to take Ubers to work on a couple of Amita, an illiterate domestic worker. Scheme,” he said. “There’s a daily risk PEOPLE LIKE US ing packets of colour on Holi, without occasions. Each time, the drivers would PEOPLE LIKE THEM Her husband has been jobless for years of accident and injury in my line of work any association with the ritualistic stop to buy tiny flags to place on their following an accident. Till last year, she and I thought the scheme would ensure KISHORE SINGH aspect of these festivals. Eating peanuts dashboards. I thought it a lovely ges- GEETANJALI KRISHNA earned ~8,000 per month, or ~96,000 some financial security for her,” Singh on Lohri around a bonfire is fun as long ture. A number of part-timers who help per annum. A couple of months ago she said. But this scheme is also applicable ou’ll spot our house for the tri- as one is not obsessive about signifi- to keep our home running smoothly are received a salary hike of ~2,000 a month. only for households with less than ~1 colour fluttering from the bal- cance and meaning. thrilled to take home flags that I am he Budget season is upon us, Soon after, neighbours told her that lakh annual income. Y cony, the only one on our street, Our collection of flags comes off the happy to share with them. It is in their and it’s time for some reckoning. applications for new ration cards were Amita and Singh are both the sole and possibly in the colony. Around streets, bought from urchins who fes- lower-income colonies and slums where T Much has been said about rising being accepted. “We’ve lived in Delhi for wage earners in their households. Both, Republic Day or Independence Day, toon themselves with the tricolour in you will see more flags fluttering jaun- income levels in India this year. Yet, the last 10 years and have been unable till quite recently, fell in the ~1 lakh someone will be dispatched to the base- the hope of making an extra buck tily from rickety windows or roofs than Oxfam Inequality Report 2019 esti- to get our ration card made during this income bracket. Both remain vulnerable ment to select from the growing collec- around this time. My driver is partial to you will see in all the tonier colonies mates it would take 941 years for a min- time,” she said. However, to her dismay, to job loss and decrease in income. It is tion of flags we’ve been accumulating bargaining for them at traffic junctions, put together. imum wage worker in rural India to when she tried to submit her applica- imperative to identify people like them over the years. A suitable one will be insisting he won’t pay beyond a certain I am not making a case for class and earn what the top paid executive at a tion, she was told that the card was who are too rich for dole and too poor to found, ironed, fitted into a rod, and (usually pithy) amount, but he is equally patriotism, merely stating a fact. I know leading Indian garment company earns issued only to households with incomes thrive; people who have neither econom- strung up (hoisting would be the wrong insistent on buying a flag to take home some among our friends who would be in a year. The inequality is troubling, below ~1 lakh. “Today I earn ~10,000 a ic security nor social security — not just term) from the railing. There it will stay to his family. Since we are often sur- embarrassed to have a flag anywhere no doubt. But there’s something I find month and save nothing. Tomorrow, I in Delhi-NCR but across the country. The for a few days, perhaps a week, some- rounded by flag-selling vendors, I find near their homes. Why this is so is not even more troubling. The definition of could lose my job or be forced to take a government must somehow regulate the times a little more. myself funding several such purchases, something I am clear about. Perhaps it income for the purposes of social secu- salary cut,” she said adding, “What will informal sector which has declined since We aren’t any more patriotic than which are then distributed among col- has to do with our polarised politics. rity schemes doesn’t take into account happen to my family then?” demonetisation and the imposition of the neighbours. Indeed, some of our leagues, much to their amusement. Whatever the reason, it has fortunately one critical variable — economic vul- Rakesh Singh, a driver, earns a slight- the goods and service tax. Meanwhile, it views might not fit the current nation- Some have wondered if I am a card-car- not stopped us from enjoying a simple nerability. Today, many in the country’s ly higher salary than Amita and lives in cannot ignore the needs of lakhs of alistic narrative, and our choice of rying member of some right-wing party. act — finding joy in the way the tricolour vast unorganised sector earn just a little east Delhi. “Two years ago, I was work- Amitas and Singhs in the country. foods, or lifestyle, might have grave con- I tell them I have no trouble aligning flaps in the wind. OPINION 9 >

Volume VI Number 26 ILLUSTRATION BY BINAY SINHA will be compensated for in the east and Northeast. UP, MUMBAI | 26 JANUARY 2019 therefore, is the one factor keeping it away from a majority. Can it find a trick to counter that? Something WEEKEND RUMINATIONS of such sentimental appeal that it consolidates the Hindu vote, cutting through caste. T N NINAN 4) The Congress is reviving. In terms of percentage over the base, its gains are much bigger than the BJP’s losses. The difference is its base is low. So even a 200 Mr Jaitley’s Budgets per cent increase would keep it to under 140. Current opinion polls put it just over 100. Even if you extrap- olate these most generously presuming that Mr Modi ext week, the Modi government will present its final statement of is not able to reverse the momentum, you do not see accounts on revenue and expenditure. They will almost certainly a spectacular surge. show that government finances have improved over the five years of Its best hope lies in denying Mr Modi more of the Arun Jaitley’s stewardship, the reference point being the previous seats in the three heartland states it has just won. The N key number for it is 150. Either take its own tally government’s final year of 2013-14. Tax revenue is budgeted to increase by 81 per cent, in a period when GDP (at current prices, ie including inflation) would have there, or keep Mr Modi below it. A third way would be to widen the UPA tent and persuade more regional or grown 67 per cent. Even factoring in some shortfall against the Budget estimates caste-based parties to come under it. All three look for the current year, the government would have done well to raise tax revenue faster improbable at this point. But a second pole is back in than GDP growth, though that can’t be said about non-tax revenue. Total revenue Modi’s fate: Between Indian politics. is slated to go up by 57 per cent over the five years, of which borrowings go up by 5) In the previous week’s National Interest we had only 24 per cent. This is certainly a creditable performance. talked about the third, and our notional fourth and On the expenditure side, the sharpest increases have been in the allocations fifth fronts. If about 150 seats go to leaders not aligned to either the Congress or BJP, many will hope to for road and rail; the former by an unprecedented 150 per cent over the base year, magic, math & Maya become prime minister in a grand compromise. It is while investment in the railways has trebled. The change of scale in the railways highly improbable. can be judged by the figures for 2013-14 and the current year: Doubling and trebling Surveys say BJP will fall far short of a majority. We lay out six factors None of the parties other than the BJP and Congress of track going from 750 km to 18,000 km, and gauge conversion from 450 km to can reach 50, in fact even 40. The only way such a 5,000 km. Railway revenue has gone up at a slower pace, presumably because key that will determine who will be our next PM and who won’t grand-bargain fantasy would come true is if the projects like the dedicated freight corridors are yet to be commissioned; the cumu- Congress and the BJP together are somehow kept t is an accepted truism that when journalists pre- 2) The political mood isn’t so much about the current below 272. That has never happened and is most lative revenue increase is 43 per cent. dict an election, they are usually wrong. And reality as the momentum. If you plot the numbers of unlikely this May. But anyone with 15 seats or more will Balancing these sharp increases, the overall subsidy bill has been kept under when all journalists call it the same way, exactly each poll from what was Mr Modi’s peak in post- have the power to strike other big bargains, from get- tight control, going up by less than 4 per cent over five years. However, there is a I the opposite result is guaranteed. demonetisation January 2017, when India Today gave ting certificates of good conduct from the CBI and ED massive increase in the food subsidy bill, which goes up by about 90 per cent while Opinion polls too are dodgy, but better than us the BJP 305 and the NDA 360 seats, the momentum on the Bellary Brothers’ pattern, special packages for the fertiliser subsidy is virtually unchanged and the petroleum subsidy has come journalists. So, what happens when all of them agree is downhill. It isn’t hurtling down, but isn’t too grad- their states, and key portfolios. down. The rural employment guarantee programme has got significantly more on the same broad outcome? ual either, a “loss” of one-third, in two years. If it con- Final alliances depend as much on who you cannot This has been a week of several opinion polls. One tinues that way, the BJP number could logically fall go with as on who you can. We know that the Left and funds, with the outlay going up from ~33,000 crore to a budgeted ~55,000 crore, thing they fully agree on is that if elections were held by another 25-40. Can Mr Modi stall, or even reverse SP can never go with the NDA, just as the Akalis and Shiv while news reports speak of additional allocations having to be made. Much of the today, we are guaranteed a hung par- this momentum? Sena won’t with the UPA. Now look at those who’ve increase may be on account of higher wage rates, so it is not clear whether the num- liament, with the BJP as the largest Visualise Indian public opinion, been flexible in the past. Mamata Banerjee has been ber of mandays of work created has increased. party, the Congress as the next but with all its diversity and complexity, with both coalitions, but her current dominance in Many comparisons are not easy to make because of intervening changes in with just half its size, and a genuine like a juggernaut: Massive, primi- West Bengal rules out her return to the NDA. There are Centre-state financial arrangements. Still, what is notable is stagnant expenditure coalition government once again. tively engineered, creaking. It takes others in the 15-plus category who will have options There are still three months to the masses of people to make it move open: DMK/AIADMK, Naveen Patnaik, Chandrababu on school education while higher education has got a 40 per cent mark-up in out- elections and nothing in politics slowly. But once it is cranked, it is Naidu, Telangana’s KCR, Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP lay — continuing a long-term national bias. Defence has been squeezed, especial- remains static. We can, however, track tough to reverse. Remember, and, for heavens’ sake, the sharpest of all, Nitish Kumar. ly capital expenditure, which has moved up by just 19 per cent. In comparison, some significant trends and safely momentum is mass multiplied by About 100 seats will be shared among these non-ideo- defence revenue expenditure (much of it salaries) has increased by 48 per cent while draw the following broad conclusions velocity. Reversing it is near-impos- logical parties who will likely go with the winner. the pension bill has soared and is now significantly larger than capital expenditure. from these polls. Which one is good or sible, and Mr Modi knows it. 6) This is where we return to Mayawati. If Mr Modi is bad I leave to you to judge, based on That is why the flurry of radical, denied a second term, it will be primarily because of the This is a sad story of the teeth-to-tail ratio going the wrong way, while the country’s your own voting preferences. NATIONAL INTEREST near-impossible populist actions, unique power she commands in our politics: A trans- defences look increasingly vulnerable. There is a larger story of the overall pension 1) The most striking indicator is that SHEKHAR GUPTA from reservations for upper castes, ferable vote. She has happily bonded with the BJP in bill for all government employees threatening to run out of control — and points to while the BJP will fall far short of its quotas for all in private institutions, the past. She is fully non-ideological in Left-Right the long-term dangers of committing to guaranteed incomes of one kind or other. 2014 majority, Prime Minister to a last-minute avalanche of CBI terms. If anti-Manuwaad is her only ideology, the NDA Big budget increases have gone over these five years to the ministries of agri- Narendra Modi’s personal popularity is by and large raids on the “corrupt and the powerful”, and whatever and UPA are equally evil and she can drink that poison culture, atomic energy, telecom, drinking water, health, urban development and intact. The India Today poll shows the BJP vote share next week brings, with the Budget, etc. Mr Modi and from either chalice. Mr Modi and Mr Shah know the falling just 1 per cent from 31 in 2014. Amit Shah know any loss below 180 is curtains. If they key-card to their second term sits in her fancy hand housing, rural development and water resources — reflecting some of the pro- This is remarkable. I believe that while there is sig- can change the direction of this juggernaut in the bag. She is the one plank they want to pull away from gramme priorities of the government under names such as Bharatnet, Gram nificant disillusionment among his original voters, it next 100 days, it will be a most remarkable feat. So ful- their rivals, through charm, threat or both, before the Sadak Yojana (rural roads), Awas Yojana (housing for the poor), Smart Cities, is compensated for by the unquestioning devotion of ly expect more desperate and radical announcements elections or after. Unlikely, but you can never rule that Swachh Bharat, Krishi Sinchai Yojana (crop insurance) and Namami Gange. first-time Lok Sabha voters, close to 130 million (born in the coming days. Remember again, their bulwark out, even if it means the hatchet being buried later in Inevitably, some areas get squeezed, like civil aviation, whose budget has shrunk. generally 1996 onwards). will still be the 130 million first-time Lok Sabha vot- Yogi Adityanath’s back. Considering the focus on building the physical infrastructure, one would have The difference between them and the rest is they ers, with their still uncluttered minds. To sum up: Mr Modi’s personal popularity and vote haven’t been out in the job market yet. As I have noted 3) If you take out Uttar Pradesh and the SP-BSP gath- bank are mostly intact but the momentum is negative, expected that the overall expenditure balance would have swung towards capital during my travels through state elections, they are still bandhan there, it is remarkable how the BJP’s numbers the UP alliance is all that threatens his second term, the expenditure, but that is only marginally the case; despite the subsidy bill being con- dazzled by Mr Modi’s power and charisma, believe the in the rest of India are about the same as before. Various Congress is rising but not enough, any party with 15 or trolled, revenue (ie current) expenditure has gone up nearly as fast as capital propaganda on his schemes, from Swachh Bharat, Skill polls show the BJP losing 45-55 seats in UP. That’s pre- more MPs will be a kingmaker but not the king, 100 spending. Given the pressure to provide financial relief to farmers and the grow- India, war on corruption to India’s “rising” global pro- cisely what it’s losing over its overall 282 tally. It seems seats will go to parties that can go with any winner. And ing talk of some kind of basic income provision, it is possible that the future may file. They haven’t been exposed to a counter-story yet, to be holding its sway, if not a clean sweep, in Madhya keep a close watch on Mayawati. see a reversal of trend, with more money being spent under revenue heads. or to the hopelessness of unemployment. It’s the great Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat despite the recent hedge holding Mr Modi/BJP back at the edge of the cliff. assembly elections setbacks. Some losses in the north By Special Arrangement with ThePrint

Panchayati Raj and Rural Development. Many BJP heirs are India’s Cleos, anyone? Is Priyanka more than a show-stopper? raring to go, at the slightest hint of tion-old Congress dynasty now Rae Bareli in 2014. Then she qui- near-cipher tally of two seats and a heads up. ner — ladling out the dal and counting the establish it as a truly monarchical etly dropped out of public view a vanished party base anything Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is to the EYE CULTURE chappatis — as though employers have enterprise? And can the Gandhi though it’s widely known that she Priyanka brings home will be a manner born among a glittering AMRIT DHILLON measured her stomach. Or the fridge. India siblings — under the protective is one of party president Rahul bonus,” says a former Congress group that in New Delhi’s elite cir- is the only country in the world for which benediction of a Queen Mother — Gandhi’s closest political counsel- MP from the state. cles is known as Rahul Gandhi’s hile watching the magnificent global manufacturers have made an evil build on an anti-incumbency wave lors. Certainly she has greater visu- Strategically, her appointment “chamber of princes”. If she Roma, directed by Alfonso model — the fridge with a lock on it. Or the against Narendra Modi, clearly vis- al appeal than Mayawati, Akhilesh to manage UP’s eastern flank is appears pleasant, and instinctive- WCuaron, the first thought that family that goes out to dinner and makes ible in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan Yadav (and definitely Smriti Irani). aimed at Narendra Modi minding ly knowing, it’s because she’s came to mind was “why hasn’t an Indian the ayah stand beside their table through- and Chhatisgarh? On private occasions, such as his shop more closely in Varanasi grown up among courtiers in the made this film?” Is there any other society out the meal. Or the separate utensils giv- Phrases such as “show-stopper” shopping locally or attending a and, equally, tie down Yogi oldest court in town. on earth that offers richer material on the en to the maid? or “good optics” oddly originate in family friend’s funeral she is Adityanath to his home turf, hav- As for her husband Robert subject of the dark dichotomies, the heavy Not a single aspect of this fascinating AL FRESCO the fashion trade when designers restrained and unpretentious, ing disastrously lost the Vadra’s embarrassing and swiftly sub-texts, and ambivalence of the servant- relationship has been examined by Indian attempt to lift jaded shows by keen to avoid any undue attention. Gorakhpur by-election last March. acquired millions that an India employer relationship? directors. A recent film, part of a Netflix SUNIL SETHI pulling out a friendly film star on It’s worth recalling that in “Rahul Gandhi has dropped the Today cover memorably titled “The This moving, beautiful film with its anthology film called Lust Stories and catwalks to rack up media footage. 2008 she went to Vellore jail to idea of alliances in favour of going Unreal Estate of Robert Vadra” it’s a sweeping blend of the larger forces of his- directed by Zoya Akhtar, depicted a young riyanka Gandhi Vadra’s There is no evidence, however, that meet Nalini Sriharan, one of the it alone. His testing ground is to fly in the ointment to be stoically tory as the backdrop against the domestic single man living alone and having sex empowerment as the key such moves translate into retail conspirators in her father’s assas- revive the Congress base,” says a borne. Is it a bigger or lesser issue life of a family in Mexico City in the 1970s, with his maid while simultaneously check- Pparty functionary in east- sales with customers queuing up. sination. “I do not believe in shrewd Shiromani Akali Dal Rajya than the numerous cases of dispro- is a contender for the Oscars. The film is ing out prospective brides brought over by ern Uttar Pradesh for the upcom- Ten years ago Priyanka anger, hatred or violence,” she Sabha MP with an old acquain- portionate assets several party lead- about Cleo, a young maid working for an mummy and daddy. ing election campaign is the sort declared that she was “very clear said later, emphasising that her tance with the Gandhi family. ers and their progeny stand accused upper middle class family with four ram- The film was a ham-handed, glib, shal- of news break that suddenly has [that] politics is not a strong pull, mother had intervened to com- The Gandhi siblings are royalty, of amassing? bunctious children. The first scene shows low effort that failed even to touch the sur- the political dovecotes aflutter. the people are…and I can do mute Nalini’s death sentence to not merely dynastic legatees. Political corruption, dynastic her at work; the camera follows her around face of what is often a daily work hazard for The question of will-she-won’t- things for them without being in life imprisonment. The country’s landscape of succession or pre-election give- in a long tracking shot as she moves from some maids. Contrast this with Cuaron’s she has hung so long in the air politics”. Today those words echo It’s what you might expect leadership, from Kashmir to aways such as farm loan waivers room to room, clearing and tidying up in light touch when he shoes the family that now she’s taken the plunge what Indira Gandhi, claiming to from a practicing Buddhist with Kanyakumari, simply teems with and reservation quotas are old this idyllic family home with its books, sprawled on a sofa watching a funny show intriguing speculations arise. be a reluctant entrant, used to say degrees in psychology and scions of political dynasties. An tropes voters are familiar with. toys, lamps, and beautiful furniture. on TV. Cleo, who has been clearing the Could Priyanka be the before her active rise in politics in Buddhist studies. abbreviated list would include What they want are jobs, agricul- Cuaron, who made the film to honour dishes, sits down by one of the young sons Congress party’s trump or Get Out the 1960s. But can compassion, common Omar Abdullah, M K Stalin, tural reform, policies that work, not the nanny who looked after him as a child, to watch too and he instinctively puts his of Jail card in a crucial state that Styling herself in the manner of courtesy or an “emotional con- Akhilesh Yadav, Jayant Chaudhury, unimplemented schemes. What lays out, with a delicate touch, the com- arm around her shoulders. Seconds later, returns the largest number of MPs her grandmother — simple cotton nect” win seats in the harsh Tejashwi Yadav, Naveen Patnaik, they appreciate in leaders is the plexities of the servant-employer dynamic. the wife tells Cleo, just as she has sat down, — and where its stock fell from 21 saris, radiant smiles, reaching out realpolitik of Uttar Pradesh, a state Supriya Sule, H D Kumaraswamy, promise of humility and common Cleo is a maid but for the four children, to go and get some tea for her husband. in 2009 to an abysmal two out of to crowds — she proved an unde- riddled with divisions of caste and K T Rama Rao and Chandrababu touch that Priyanka has over she is a beloved angel. She kisses them The moment is fleeting but perceptively 80 seats in 2014? Is she a mere niable crowd-puller while cam- religion, and confronted with a Naidu’s only son Nara Lokesh who Narendra Modi’s arrogance and good night. She wakes them up in the captured because of Cuaron’s sensibility. show-stopper or a potential vote- paigning vigorously in the family seemingly impregnable BSP-SP currently holds triple cabinet port- swagger. That’s why she may be morning with a gentleness that is more a This is a classic scene enacted in homes snatcher? Does the five genera- pocket boroughs of Amethi and alliance? “When you’re down to a folios of Information Technology, more than a mere show-stopper. caress than a jolt. She is the calm presence every day in India. The moment a maid sits in the house as their parents’ marriage col- down, some instruction comes. But more lapses. Cleo is the one who is responsible importantly, it is the relationship between for their safety when they venture out into the maid and the children — as shown by out of a Tolkienesque wizarding the city streets and when they go on holi- the boy putting his arms lovingly around war, and wish it could be toned days — this includes the marvellous scene Cleo — that generates a grey area where no The Republic will be reborn, again down to “Greater Alliance” or at the end when she has to wade into the one is quite sure, neither maid nor employ- ferences that it’s hard to paste a Those reasons should be famil- the striking physical resemblance. something, but it beats me how surging ocean, even though she can’t swim. er, of the protocol. That’s because little smile on, though we can still iar to those who saw the We should all hope that the Gandhi people can so easily forget that She is the one who makes sure that the Indian children love the maid. If they go encourage each other to go fly a Emergency, when even the Sangh siblings’ youthful idealisation of coalitions have done their fair share lovely hum and rhythm of this family somewhere, they want to take her with kite. Politicians in particular can- held hands with their mortal ene- their grandmother, in her capacity in bringing India into the 21st cen- home runs smoothly. Isn’t this what our them. If they order a pizza for dinner, they not afford to be misty-eyed about mies, the Commies, to oust Indira as politician, has been tempered tury, not to mention that this time maids do every day too? The mystery is want to share it with her. But the maid has the past — they’re keeping their Gandhi; but oddly, Mr Modi is by a long and clear-eyed study of the protagonists have uncommon why this rich material hasn’t been mined to almost discourage this affectionate, egal- eyeballs polished and beadily spending a lot of rally time cry- power. Both Indira Gandhi and Mr common cause. A coalition might not just for films, but for sitcoms and TV itarian approach of the children because focused on the future. ing, “No fair, all they want is to Modi have shown that a) leaders involve a slower consensus and be drama series. Just think of the tragicomic her instinct tells her it does not sit well The big old ship of the Republic get me out.” It’s as if he has no idea who fear losing power can wreck a more difficult to manage, but a sec- potential in these situations: The employ- with the adults. has weathered plenty of horren- what elections are for. country, b) strong leaders tend to ular, diverse coalition would almost er’s righteous indignation when the maid It is this space — constantly shifting dous storms, and will see plenty Even Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, overestimate their own strength certainly do less damage than the asks for a pay rise equivalent to the price of and fluid — that she must negotiate all the INTER ALIA more. But the 2019 general elec- who thus far has steadfastly and popularity, and c) there are strong, centralised Hindutva- a latte; the expectation that she must love time. A space where, one moment she is a tion is a special challenge, and remained a backroom operator many ways to skin a democracy, inclined leadership we have now. A and comfort your child and stay up at loved member of the family, laughing with MITALI SARAN everyone knows it. The Republic and election campaign cameo each of them very effective. I like smart coalition will never forget night during their illnesses even though them and sharing a joy or a sorrow but in is currently captained and crewed player, has taken an official seat at the idea that Priyanka comes to an that what it is fighting today, it will she can be thrown out for one trivial mis- another, she can become the outsider who t’s Republic Day again. This is by people who seem interested in the table. I can’t imagine too many official role in politics after spend- be fighting for a very long time. take; the expectation of loyalty although is excluded from a treat or an activity traditionally the time to reflect the safety and well-being of only a other political situations that ing a great deal of time examining The heart of every January 26 she can be packed off back to her village if shared by everyone else. I on our history and make fun of select kind of passenger, advising could have convinced her to do herself and her motivations. And I, celebration, ultimately, is the citi- she contracts TB; the endless expansion of Many talented directors and writers the floats. Everyone has their the rest to swim for Pakistan. So so. Her actual effect on Congress for one, am always glad to see one zen — that long-suffering creature, her job description to encompass the mas- have finally started delving into contem- favourite marching contingent, it’s been a hoot to watch politicians party workers and on the elec- more intelligent, secular, and shafted by every government in saging of feet, the walking the dog, and porary Indian society for stories. To men- most of us are happy to have the across the board sink their egos, torate remains to be seen, but she apparently compassionate person one way or the other, and justifi- looking after the incontinent elderly; the tion only a handful, films such as Fandry day off, and who doesn’t love a gather on the same platform, make has plenty of fight to bring eye- throw her hat in the ring. We’ll find ably cynical — who periodically unhappy watchfulness of the plain mis- and Masaan explore caste with great sen- good flypast? It only remains to seat-sharing agreements, and ball to eyeball with the prime min- out, over time, what she’s made of. recreates the Republic from the tress of the house who cannot bear the sitivity. Bombay Talkies looked at homo- ditch the joyless belief that nation- shake hands across their differ- ister, and what could be more fun The idea of a voting booth. This year, as the gleam in her husband’s gaze when it rests sexuality. But these merely scratch the al days should be alcohol-free. ences, swearing to oust Narendra than to watch him have to diss a Mahagathbandhan, or Grand tanks roll and the camels preen, on the pretty maid; the mat given to her to surface. Maybe the subject — master-ser- Still, after four years of loud Modi’s government. They’re even smiling young woman? Alliance, is regularly pooh-poohed we can cheerily take the day off to roll out on the floor when she goes to sleep vant relationship — feels too quotidian. chest-thumping, this year’s saying nice things about each oth- On the subject of gushy com- as a useless khichdi of people who celebrate the fact that this sum- when the mansion where she works has But surely the hallmark of a great director Republic Day feels slightly sub- er occasionally. And chances are, parisons between Priyanka and spend all their time jockeying for mer we get to extend its life once empty bedrooms. is the ability to make us look at every- dued. People are so busy sulking for a change, that they’re doing it all Indira Gandhi, one can only hope power. I would say that “Grand again. And, of course, to make fun Food alone offers rich pickings for a thing that has always surrounded us in a for the right reasons. that they don’t run too far beyond Alliance” sounds like something film director. Doling out the maid’s din- different way?