SOMALIA Rain Watch November 2, 2012

FEWS NET will publish a Rain Watch for every dekad (10 days) through the end of the current Deyr (October-December) rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr rains to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Rain Watch is valid through November 10, 2012 and is produced in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, a number of other agencies, and several Somali NGOs.

Deyr rains intensify in many parts of Somalia

From October 21 to 30, Deyr rains intensified and were widely distributed in many parts of the southern regions, but most of the Northwest remained dry (Figure1). In addition, ground reports indicate Northeast and the central regions also received moderate to heavy rains, following Tropical Cyclone Murjan from the Indian Ocean.

In the Northwest, rainfall of various intensities and durations were received in many areas of the Hawd and Nugal Valley in Sool Region. In addition, heavy downpours in parts of the Hawd in Togdheer caused flash floods, leading to the loss of human lives and of livestock. Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Murjan hit Bari Region from October 24 to 26 with strong winds and heavy rainfall. The storm caused the loss of lives, washed away an unknown number of livestock, and destroyed physical assets. In general, the rainfall performance in the pastoral areas of the northeastern regions has been fairly good and evenly distributed especially in the coastal Deeh livelihood zone, which had suffered from serious rainfall deficits over the past several seasons. Exceptions to the good rainfall include most areas of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, the Sool plateau, and parts of the Hawd and the Nugaal Valley that have either received negligible showers or were dry.

In the central regions of Galgadud and , most of the Hawd, Addun pastoral livelihood zone, and the cowpea-growing areas (central regions agropastoral livelihood zone) received moderate rains with good frequency from October 21 to 31. In addition, ground reports indicate moderate to heavy rains were received in most parts of coastal Deeh livelihood zone with Harardere district having a thunderstorm. Rain gauge stations located in Eldher and Harardhere recorded 52 millimeters (mm) and 232 mm of rain, respectively. Comparing the rainfall estimate for October 21 to 30 and the 1983 to 2011 long-term mean (LTM) shows that the rainfall in most of the central region has been normal to above normal (Figure 2).These rains have brought much needed relief as they replenished barkads and natural water points and supported pasture regeneration.

In the South, from October 21 to 31, most of the regions received widely distributed, moderate to heavy rains, including the parts of region that were previously dry. For example, rain gauges located in Jenale in and Berdale in Bay recorded 32 mm and 51 mm of rainfall, respectively, during this dekad with two and four rainy days, respectively. By and large, well‐distributed normal to above normal rains in the southern agricultural areas of Bay, Bakol, Lower and , and Lower and since September have improved cropping, pasture, and water conditions. Destructive floods which swept away a large amount of cropped land were reported in parts of Jowhar and Balcad Districts in Middle Shabelle and Kurtunwarey District in Lower Shabelle. However, pockets of Gedo and Bakol Regions and, parts of the coastal plains of Lower and Middle Juba received little or no rain from October 21 to 31.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), indicates that current vegetation levels continued to improve in most parts of the country, largely due to good rains since the start of October. However, the impact of poor costal rains during the July to September Hagga season is evident in the South. There remain significant vegetation deficits from the 2001 to 2010 short-term mean (STM) in the coastal regions of Lower Shabelle and (Figure 3). The seven‐day weather forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) is valid through November 8. It indicates moderate rains of up to 30 mm in most of the southern regions. Parts of Gedo Region including Belet Hawa, Garbaharey, and Elwak districts are expected to receive relatively heavier rains (> 40mm). The rest of the country is likely to experience dry weather (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data please contact [email protected] or visit http://www.faoswalim.org.

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Figure 1. Rainfall estimate (RFE2) (mm), October 21-30, Figure 2: Rainfall percent of 1983-2011 mean, October 2012 21-30, 2012

Figure 3. eMODIS NDVI anomaly, October 21-30, 2012 Figure 4. Seven days forecast valid up to November 8, 2012

Sources: FEWS NET/NOAA/CPC and USGS/FEWS NET