Resonating Narratives

The scale of Islamist and far-right extremism among British young people

CRISTINA ARIZA SAM ALVIS

SEPTEMBER 2020

Contents

Foreword by Tony Blair 5

Executive Summary 7

Policy Recommendations 9

The Challenge 13

The Data 15 Islam Versus the West Victimisation Delegitimising the Government Violence

Methodology 35

References 39

The fieldwork for this report was carried out bySavanta ComRes in May 2019 and October 2019. We acknowledge that some responses to the survey and the online communities might have been determined by the context at the time and so they could differ at present. Nonetheless, we judge that the survey results are still relevant in showing some of the extremist tropes that are resonating with young people and the factors associated with holding these views.

3

Foreword by Tony Blair

Counter-extremism is heavily politicised. For years, leading politicians have failed to engage constructively, shying away from tackling divisive groups head on. But the rise in identity politics should not stop us from making greater efforts to bridge divides and identify and root out those seeking to damage the social fabric of our communities.

In 2020, governments across the world have had to deal with the unprecedented health and economic challenges posed by the spread of Covid-19. While the priority of every government at the moment should be to protect lives and the economy by building in the necessary infrastructure to live with the virus as we wait for a vaccine, let us not forget that the problems that existed before Covid-19 will continue to exist afterwards. If anything, Covid-19 will only exacerbate the problems that were there before.

This year marks 15 years since the 7/7 terrorist attacks, which led to a shift in the way we looked at security in Britain. Avoiding a similar event was the core aim of my government’s renewed and updated focus on counter- extremism. Yet extremism, both violent and not, is an ever-evolving challenge. As new extreme movements gain momentum, political leaders must be equipped to tackle this threat effectively. Even during the spread of Covid-19, extremist groups have found a reason to mobilise and promote their hateful rhetoric.

5 THEFOREWORD CHALLENGE people pushes extreme narratives to the fore. people pushesextreme narrativesto thefore. one inwhichtheinformationecosystemofyoung identifies alsopointtoamore complex picture, currently allowsthem.Yet thedriversthisreport operate withtheimpunitythatpoliticalsystem of theseextremist groups. They cannotcontinueto We mustbeclear:Much oftheblameliesatfeet a reputation foropacitydoesnothelp. political atmosphere. That theseprogrammes have vulnerability anduncertaintyinanotherwisefebrile extremist groups prey onyoungpeople’s feelings of extremism asatargeted, policestate–styleapparatus, their more damagingworldview. By framingcounter- vested interest inmaligningpoliciesasagatewayto are boundtobecriticised:Extremist groups havea Any andallgovernmentcounter-extremism policies our youngpeople. and eventheuseofviolenceare beingspread among minorities “invading”Britain, thestateofdemocracy convenience. Dangerous viewsaboutimmigrantsand a sizeableminority, onewecannotignore outof Institute haveidentifiedare clearly resonating with for arenewed politicalfocus.The narrativesmy and cohesivedirection, highlightsthepressing need push UKcounter-extremism policyinamore practical This report, thethirdandlastinaseriesthatseeksto behind extremism intheUK. violent extremism butonthedangerous ideologies opportunity tounitebehindanewfocus,notjuston of sufferingfrom thisproblem. We therefore havean This makes ithardertoaccuseanyonecommunity both withinandonthefringesoftheirownparties. All politicalmovementsare strugglingwithextremism, we take anobjective lookatallformsofextremism. threat ofShia extremism, forexample,demandthat spectrum. The riseofthefarrightandincreased threat ofextremism from across theideological Yet itisimperativethatwecontinuetotacklethe 6 fabric thatisvitalforthewell-beingofoursocieties. out canwestopthemfrom furtherdamagingthesocial examples ofdivisiveextremism. Only bycallingthese The resources myInstitute hasproduced showclear unapologetic tothoseguiltyofhate. is that one And bringing diffuseanddisconnectedpoliciestogether. extremism asacross-government endeavour, that holdprogress back.One thatrelocates counter- crosses thenarrow politicaldividesandidentities extremism in theUK.This agendamustbeonethat tensions, the government mustrefocus itsagendaon extremism emerges. To avoidexacerbatingexisting they can provide thematerialconditionsinwhich of political division,weshouldbemindfulofhow figures, fearsof recession andentrenching on ourlives,includingskyrocketing unemployment As wecontinuetoreflect ontheimpactof Covid-19 are abulwarkagainstdangerous ideas. less sanguine.Positivity, diversityandcriticalthinking foster, tobuildthissameresilience inthosewhoare hopeful andresilient. These are thefeelingswemust discrimination, like youngMuslim women,stillprove and their ownagency. Many ofthosesufferingfrom holdpositiveviewsofthefuture those surveyed to beoptimistic.Anoverwhelmingmajorityof However, thisresearch showsthere are alsoreasons and Northern Ireland Former Prime Minister ofGreat Britain Institute for Global Change Executive Chairman of theTony Blair Tony Blair

Executive Summary

This report, the final in the Narratives series, seeks to understand the extent to which Islamist and far-right ideas are resonating with young people in the UK. It tests the narratives explored in our previous reports in this series, Narratives of Division: The Spectrum of Islamist Worldviews in the UK and Narratives of Hate: The Spectrum of Far-Right Worldviews in the UK, which found three key narratives embedded in both groups:

• the idea that there is an irreconcilable conflict between the West and Islam, • in-group victimisation, and • anti-establishment views seeking to delegitimise the government.

We partnered with Savanta ComRes to carry out a poll of 1,011 Muslims and 1,011 white non-Muslims (WNM) aged 18 to 30 in May 2019. We also convened two online communities, one for each group, with 57 total participants from both samples in October 2019.

7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • • • • KEY FINDINGS 8 cent respectively). British andMuslim identities(36and30per Muslims toagree there are tensionsbetween sharia lawdominates.WNMs are more likely than violence andthatthere are no-goareas where views aboutIslam, includingthat itpromotes negative per centofWNMs holdvery surveyed non-Muslims istheWest versus Islam. Thirty-one the most prominent themeforBritish white Out ofthestatements aboutextremism, British culture isunderthreat from invasion. while almost17percentofWNMs thinkthat systematically targeted intheUKandglobally, Muslim respondents (34percent) thinktheyare for British Muslims. More thanone-third of victimisation isthemostprominent theme Out ofthestatements aboutextremism, political violence. there isnevera justificationforterrorism or – halfofbothMuslims andWNMs –agree that cent forWNMs). However, mostrespondents defend theirreligion orculture withforce (9per agree thatpeopleshouldgoouttofight change. Fifteen percentofMuslims surveyed andjustifiedtoachieve sometimes necessary believeviolentactionis of thosesurveyed Around 13percent sympathise withviolence. A smallerbutnotnegligibleminority with politics. respectively thinkthere islittlevalueinengaging it, whileanother17percentand23 democracy isbroken andweshouldreplace cent ofMuslims and16percentofWNMs think establishment sentiment.For example,17per promoting feelingsofvictimisationandanti- themes depictingIslam andtheWest inconflict, consistently agree withextreme positionsacross statements. One-fifth ofbothgroups surveyed people whoagree withnonviolent extremist There isasignificant minorityofyoung • • • • • • • • • • messages. They tendto: for thosemore likely toagree withextremist There are demographicandbehaviouralindicators foreign policiesofthegovernment. groups and disagreement withdomesticand Other factorsincludedaffinitywithdivisive can belinked to: shows thatagreement withextremist messages information. Aregression analysisofthedata likely reflects howthey receive andprocess Respondents’ agreement withextremist positions be male. when itcomestothefuture, and have anegativeoutlookorfeelpowerless contact, lack socialintegrationandinter-group of race andreligious belief, have homogenoussocialnetworksinterms say theyhavebeendiscriminatedagainst, experience ofdiscrimination. limited diversitywithinsocialnetworks,and of agency, negative feelingsabouttheirfuture oralack

Policy Recommendations

Aside from depicting the scale of the problem, our data show that agreement with extremist messages could be linked to:

• negative feelings about the future or a lack of agency, • limited diversity within social networks, and • experience of discrimination.

On the back of these findings, we make the following recommendations to policymakers:

RECOGNISING THE SCALE OF THE PROBLEM

Policymakers should recognise that nonviolent extremist views are pervasive and that it is a problem that does not solely affect one community. Our data show that both Muslims and white non-Muslims present similar levels of agreement with extremist statements, which should be a powerful tool to avoid politicising the issue and focus on constructing a non-biased approach to countering extremism.

Our two previous reports showed the ideological overlap between non-violent Islamist and far-right activists with violent extremists. Given the resonance of these non-violent ideas with a significant percentage of young people, policymakers cannot shy away from countering these ideas in a more vocal way. This requires designing specific programmes that challenge the underlying ideology of extremism.

9 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS came from thantheaverage. identifying disinformationandrecognising where news An impactstudyshowedparticipantswere betterat and criticalquestionsonsource, evidenceandbalance. day sessionsdiscussedthetypeofnewstheyconsumed Serbia andIndonesia. Discern hassincebeenrolled outintheUS, Jordan, sources andmore confidentinmedialiteracy. Learnto also suggests thattheywere betteratcrosschecking to increase open-mindednessandcriticalthinking. students in40countries,andhasbeendemonstrated Global programme has, since 2009, reached 550,000 train teachersinthesematerials.Our Generation further resources andfundingavailabletoschools The Department forEducation (DfE)shouldmake canbebulwarksagainstextremist views. survey that identity andagency–topicswefoundinour religion, educators to helpschoolstalkaboutissuessuchas Our Instituteissues. hasdevelopedaresource for teach young peoplehowtotalkaboutdifficult Policymakers shouldpromote initiativesthat (60 percent) askey reasons forthis. (61 per cent), employment(73percent) andmoney cent). Other pollinghashighlightedpoliticalevents minority whofeeltheyhavenocontrol overit(25per about theirfuture (75percent), there isasignificant poll showed asignificantproportion feelpositive on real andperceived vulnerabilities.While our with extremist sentiments.Extremist groups prey agree consistently A fifthofyoungpeoplesurveyed community centres. IREX, which runs Learn to community centres. IREX,whichrunsLearnto for children through schools,andadultsthrough like LearntoDiscern , helpingtodevelopacurriculum regulator, shouldtake responsibility forprogrammes media environment. literacy, butithasnot kept pacewith thenew Ofcom hasaformaldutytopromote media explore theirmediaconsumption. Discern brought together15,000 Ukrainian citizensto for formalmedialiteracyprogrammes. Learnto Ofcom andDfEshouldexpandgovernment support offline, and reachtheirownjudgementsonveracity. reflect onthecontenttheyencounter, bothonlineand It isaprioritythatyoungpeopleare abletocritically ENHANCED SCHOOL CURRICULA 10 Ofcom, orany proposed online 5 4 Anecdotal evidence Anecdotalevidence 3 Participants inhalf- 1 2 for Justice. and SocialResearch Council andtheUSDepartment HateLab received £1.7 millionfrom theUK’sEconomic level politics,especiallyfrom Muslim respondents. a huge opennessformore transparent, community- government asopaqueandunaccountable.There is political systemsresonate because young peopleview Messages aboutbroken democracyorillegitimate be replaced. Our focusgroups showthere ishope: government, andthatdemocracyisbroken andshould per cent ofWNMs believetheyshouldboycott the among Muslim participantsinourpoll,while23 life betterforpeople“like me” wasalmostnonexistent rhetoric. Agreement thatgovernmentaimstomake Anti-government narrativesare core toextremist appropriate interventions. appropriate interventions. to understandingdigitalconversationsandbuilding of extremist speech(like thoseinourtoolkit) isvital potentially expandingthemtoothermanifestations Continued government supportforsuchprojects, it comestotacklingnon-violentextremism. Justice orHome Officecouldexpanditsimpactwhen frontline officers. reports ofonlinehatetoreduce theburdenon National Online Hate Crime Hub, whichchannels speech. Their dataare crucialtotheHome Office’s funded datahubformeasuringandcounteringhate online information ecosystem.HateLab isapublicly Government mustcontinue tounderstandthe of platformsandmedialiteracy. This wouldbemutuallybeneficial,improving thehealth UK-operating techcompaniestofundaUKversion. organisations. Government shouldseeksupportfrom Discern, isfundedbyprivateandphilanthropic BETTER ENGAGEMENT BETTER walk. They earnt my trust.” they talked about.They talk thetalkandwalk community, meetpeopleandthenactuponwhat to improve. They activelygooutinto the ingeneral for thelocalarea andthecountry making thechangesIwant tohappen inorder “[Elected representatives] are workingtowards 7 Additionalsupportfrom theMinistry of 6 Muslim, male,aged 22-25, London POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

11 9 10

12 13 The Conservative Conservative The 8 11 government was criticised for focusing solely on the government was criticised language skills for Muslim for English recommendation Citizenship while the National women. Similarly, by Service billion, it was mired was allocated £1.5 on spending priorities lax control mismanagement and just 12 per cent of eligible young people. – reaching The DfE should develop a specific funding stream The schools lacking in diversity can link toto ensure Linking Network, The others in their local area. these, has an annual like efforts which supports scaling this recommend We spend of £442,000. up to significantly widen the number of project specialist schools in science, Local schools it reaches. music or facilitiessports could be encouraged to share mixed classes or events. run and mixing should be expanded to parents. Social scheme in Scotland, is an EU-funded Parents4all and Lithuania. Italy Greece, Germany, Spain, DfE should support schools in sharing spaces, events people and schools are and experiences. Young merely They for a lack of diversity. not responsible schools can help However, residential choices. reflect Schools Linking Bradford The homogeneity. overcome in partnership Working is one example. Programme 226 schoolswith the council and cultural institutions, that discuss identity but engaged in programmes are between classes, messages and resources also share point helping young people experience a different of view. It teaches parents about intercultural mixing, mixing, about intercultural parents It teaches supporting them to have conversations with their example, in Scotland two sets of training For children. teach parents by professionals, materials, administered skills, covering topics how to develop intercultural and othering. like self-perception The debate must now focus on better supporting debate must The offers both a sustainable solutionyoung people. This Recent work on and a chance to influence upwards. about theclimate change shows educating children concerned. more growing issue led to their parents This is not a recent problem. Successive Successive problem. not a recent is This a integration as identified governments have Despite communities. challenge to the Casey review to recommendations outlining several into integration referendum of the Brexit government, the aftermath challenging. made progress Forty-four per cent of Muslims and 47 per cent 47 and per cent of Muslims Forty-four surveyed who feel that the governmentof WNMs withspends too much on social integration agree a clash between the West statements presenting * and Islam. who agree per cent of both groups Forty-seven a worse that multiculturalism has made Britain should live that cultures place to live and/or with the sentiment of separately also agree democracy. boycotting and replacing who think that per cent of WNMs Forty-seven multiculturalism has made the UK a worse place should live separately that cultures to live and/or is under threat culture also believe that British invasion.from A FOCUS ON YOUNG PEOPLE PEOPLE YOUNG ON FOCUS A AND DIVERSITY The final area our research points to is a greater focusgreater points to is a research our final area The Lack of social diversity social mixing. on increasing messages in all with extreme to agreement is linked surveyed categories. • • • The Home Office and the Ministry of Housing, Housing, Ministry of the Office and Home The (MHCLG) Government Local and Communities community new models of should broaden policy. counter-extremism to incorporate engagement run by the RSA Economic Council Citizens’ The engagement on complex policy shows that regional understanding and trust.issues leads to improved the from rollout of this led to a broader The success international examples, Likewise, of England. Bank town halls, citizen assemblies such as Justin Trudeau’s Grand the French abortion debate or the Ireland like expand input into policy agendas. have helped Débat, these examples to work in counter-extremism For they need to go beyond set-piece consultations. sceptical of in our online discussions were Young people engagement that is opportunistic or brand-orientated as such non-political figures for politicians. Instead, civil servants, local government and practitioners less traditional spaces,should lead discussions through societies and associations, LGBT such as residents’ moves beyond traditional gatekeepers youth clubs. This than simplyand speaks to mixed communities, rather faiths or ethnicities. consulting of doing a checkbox POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS • • • extremism policyshouldbe: We believethisstrategicnewvisionforcounter- support from the Treasury. Office, the MHCLG andDfE–aswellfinancial to efforts across departments,includingthe Home should capitalise onthechancetobringcohesion Any revision tothecounter-extremism strategy extremism, we needasingularandpowerfulstrategy. To challengetheunderlyingideologyof to-school mixing. prioritised tohelpreinforce thebenefitsofschool- already runs) andtheWest Midlands, shouldbe such asLondon, Scotland(where theprogramme hasidentified, extremist sentimentthatoursurvey areas andthoselackingdiversity. Somehotspotsfor could expandprogrammes tohighmigrant-recipient from 2021 tocovershortfalls.Additionalfinancing external membershipofErasmus orcommitfunding The governmentwilleitherneedtoseekcontinued A BOLDER STRATEGY 12 spread it. effects andtheill-intentionedactorswho challenge extremism whenwesee it,itsdamaging Courageous. We cannotbeafraidtocallout and it effectively. and governmentdepartmentsisneededtotackle Better coordinationacross agencies,communities Cohesive. Extremist insociety. viewsare pervasive and lookatextremism asawhole. Islamophobia. There isanopportunitytoreform by politicalscandalsaboutanti-Semitism and with bothLabourandConservatives marred Crossbench. Extremism isapoliticisedissue, 14

The Challenge

Defining and understanding the scale of extremism, particularly in its non-violent form, has long been a challenging task for policymakers.

Recent research in the UK suggests that the public and practitioners alike are worried about extremism. Polling carried out on behalf of the Commission for Countering Extremism (CCE) found that 73 per cent of respondents were concerned about rising extremism, while a report from 2019 for the Mayor of London found that a quarter of Londoners had experienced or witnessed views promoting, endorsing or supporting extremism over the course of the previous year.15 However, less than a quarter of Londoners were confident that they could spot the signs of extremism.16 This echoes research from the CCE, which showed that 75 per cent found the government’s current definition of extremism unhelpful.

To address this gap, our past reports in this series, Narratives of Division and Narratives of Hate, have provided a spectrum of ideas depicting a scale of views from mainstream to extreme on the key themes present in Islamist and far-right extremism rhetoric, which could serve as a useful tool to create a working definition of extremism (see Methodology).

13 THE CHALLENGE threat. extremism, far-rightterrorism isthefastest-growing isposedbyIslamistterrorist threat tothecountry Commissioner, haswarnedthatwhilethebiggest Neil Basu, theMetropolitan Police Assistant or Islamism. narratives are particularlystrong withinthefarright are evenhigherthanone-fifth,showcasinghowsome narratives, thepercentage ofrespondents whoagree towards violentextremism. For somespecific statements, while10 percentshowsomesympathy Muslims agree withnon-violentextremist inoursurvey Around one-fifthofboth Muslims andwhitenon- non-violent, there isasignificantminoritythatdo. not agree withextremist statements,violentor Our pollingfoundthatwhilemostrespondents do of 1,000 Muslims and1,000 whitenon-Muslims. young Brits aged18–30, withtwoseparatesamples we partnered withSavantaComRes topoll2,000 behind agreement withdivisiveorextremist views, scale oftheproblem, aswellidentifyingfactors narratives insociety. In ordertogetapicture ofthe to understandthecut-through oftheseextremist is onlyhalfofthepicture, asthere isadire need However, arrivingatasuitabledefinitionofextremism crisis. We acknowledgethatthefindingsofthis report, unexpected lockdown andasubsequenteconomic rapidly swepttheworld,forcing countriesintoan to gripswiththecoronavirus pandemic,whichhas May andOctober 2019,theworldhashadtocome Since thefieldworkforthis report wascarriedoutin is not a problem ofjustonecommunity. non-Muslims andMuslims, showingthatextremism with extremist statementsare equallyhighforwhite years. concerns havebeensteadilyincreasing inrecent 14 18 17 Yet remarkably, levelsofagreement inourpoll Indeed, referrals toPrevent forfar-right to minus6percentinJuly2020. decreased from 23percentinmid-March 2020 ratings oftheUKgovernmentasawholehave (28 percentand31respectively). Islamophobia andanti-Semitism are notaproblem suggests thatasignificantpercentage stillthinkthat adults carriedoutbySavantaComRes inJuly2020 Likewise, ofmore arecent than2,000 survey UK orienting counter-extremism decisions. agreement withextremist viewscanhelpinbetter understanding whichfactorsare likely tobedriving For suchamultifacetedchallengelike extremism, potentially increased intheseunprecedented times. agency andhopelessnessaboutone’s future, have connected toextremism, suchasfeelingalackof Several ofthefactorsthatthisreport highlightsas are no-go areas intheUKwhere sharialawdominates. white non-Muslim respondents believethat there between Islam andtheWest. Fourteen percentof of bothsamplesthinkthere isanunresolvable conflict to moveon.Meanwhile, onIslamophobia, 19 percent think thattheHolocaust isatragedy, butthatitistime approximately one-sixthofbothgroups ofrespondents too apologeticaboutanti-Semitism inBritain, while non-Muslims respondents thinkthatpeople are of British Muslims and7percentofBritish white Semitism question,ourpollshowsthat12percent to Islamophobia andanti-Semitism. On theanti- agree withdivisiveandextreme statementsrelating pointstoasmallbutsignificantpocketsurvey who the LeaderofOpposition. of thePrime Minister, membersoftheCabinet and that there hasbeenaswiftdecrease inapproval ratings by SavantaComRes sincethepandemicstartedshows different giventhisnewcontext. Daily datacompiled erosion oftrustingovernment,wouldlookradically particularly relating torespondents’ viewsonthe 19 Generally, approval 20 21 Yet our

The Data

This section offers a deep dive into the polling data that is the basis of this report. It looks at the key narratives from our previous work and how these relate to the attitudes of young people.

Three key narratives are shared between Islamist and far-right extremist groups:

• Islam versus the West • Victimisation • Anti-establishment

In our previous reports, we created a table showcasing a range of views, from mainstream to extreme, on these three themes. The aim of these tables was to showcase a spectrum of ideas that shows how extremism can build on a foundation of divisive statements. We adapted these five statements to form the basis of our polling questions so we could gauge the level of agreement with the more extreme end in the spectrum. Throughout this report, we identify these extreme statements with the symbols “ ” and “ ”. This allows us to link the statement and its response to its position on our tables depicting a spectrum of views from mainstream to extreme. For a detailed explanation on our methodology, please see the Methodology section at the end of this report.

Our data show that there is a significant but not negligible minority that hold extreme views in these themes. A fifth of respondents consistently agree with extreme positions on British and Muslim identities, the place of their groups in society and the role of government, while around 10 per cent hold positive views towards violence.

15 THE DATA • • views aboutIslam (see Figure 2): a substantialpercentage ofWNMs negative hadvery our scaleofdivisivenarratives(see Figure 1).In addition, These correspond tothetwomostextreme positions in • • Islam andtheWest. agreed withstatementspresenting aconflictbetween and British whitenon-Muslims (WNMs) surveyed A significantpercentage of British Muslims (BMs) Overview of the factorsmentionedabove. subsets ofdatatounderstandthestrength ofeach with extremist messageswhiledrillingdowninto The followinganalysisquantifiesthelevelofagreement 4. 3. 2. 1. with more extreme messagestendto: vulnerable toextremism. Those whoare likely toagree are demographicandbehaviouralindicatorsforthose other attitudinalandbehaviouralresponses. There between agreeing withextremist statementsand The dataalsoshowthatthere isacorrelation ISLAM VERSUS THE WEST ISLAM 16 areas where sharialawdominates. Fourteen percentbelievethatthere are no-go Fifteen percentthinkIslam promotes violence. and Islam wouldbeagoodthing. agree withtheideathatconflictbetween West Nine percentofBMs and4per cent ofWNMs Islam andtheWest. think there isanunresolvable conflictbetween Nineteen percentofbothBMs and WNMs it comes tothefuture. have anegativeoutlookorfeelpowerlesswhen lack socialintegrationandinter-group contact,and and religious belief, have homogenoussocialnetworksintermsofrace say theyhavebeendiscriminatedagainst, messages in this category (seemessages inthiscategory Figures 1and2). agreement withanyofthetwogroups ofextremist Below are somekey indicatorscorrelated with particularly withWNMs. related toIslam versustheWest resonate strongly, responses. This suggeststhatnon-violentpositions negative statementsaccountfor31percentofall Out ofthefivestatementsabout Islam tested,the two WNMs thanforBMs. In thiscategory, thecorrelations were stronger for Main Indicators Islam (see Figure 3). two mostextreme statementsabout theWest and their future willnotbepositivealsoagreed withthe their future and38percentofthosewhothinkthat Forty-one percentofthosewhofeelnocontrol over Lack ofagencyisalsoanissueforBMrespondents. with negative statementsaboutIslam (see Figure 4). future will bepositive(39and33percent) agreed over theirfuture andwhodonotthinkthattheir A highnumberofWNMs whofeeltheyhave no control statements thanthosewhodonotfeela lackofagency. over theirfuture were more likely toagree withextreme WNM andBMrespondents whofeelalackofagency Agency communities.” different totheirsandthusleadingmicro countries] into British culture asitiscompletely “It ishard tointegrate [cultures from Islamic WNM, male,aged22-25, London FIGURE 1 Negative statements showing the West and Islam in conflict THE DATA

There is an unresolvable conflict 19% between Islam and the West 19%

Conflict between the West and 4% Islam would be a good thing 9%

British white non-Muslims British Muslims

Source: Q11: From the statements below, please select the statements you agree with the most: Muslim and British identities are dierent, but you can have both/ There are tensions between British and Muslim identities/ There is no conflict between being Muslim and being British/ There is unresolvable conflict between Islam and the West/ Conflict between the West and Islam would be a good thing/ None of these. Base size: All respondents (2,022).

FIGURE 2 Negative statements about Islam

There are no-go areas where 14% sharia law dominates

Islam promotes violence 15%

British white non-Muslims

Source: Q13b: From the statements below, please select the statements you agree with the most: Some interpretations of Islam are problematic, but I do not have anything against the religion as a whole/ Islam is oppressive to women and minorities/ Islam is a peaceful and diverse religion/ Islam promotes violence/ There are no-go areas in Britain where Sharia law dominates/ None of these. Base size: All British white non-Muslim respondents (1,011).

17 THE DATA and thatcultures should liveseparately. multiculturalism hasmadeBritain aworseplaceto live a source oftension,with18percent agreeing that negative.Relatedly, multiculturalismare very isalso andattitudestowardsIslamstatements inthesurvey prevalent narrativeforWNMs outofalltheextremist Depicting theWest andIslam inoppositionisthemost Case Study: for WNMs (41 versus37percent;seeFigure 4). Islam andtheWest (see Figure 3). The sameistrue negative statementsabouttherelationship between friends from anotherrace(26percent) toagree with (35 percent) are more likely thanBMs whohave BMs whodonothavefriendsfrom another race integration orisspendingtheright amount. think thegovernmentisnotspendingenoughonsocial likely toagree withthese statementsasWNMs who influence (see Figure 4). This subsetisalmosttwiceas also agree withstatementsdepictingIslam asanegative government isspendingtoomuchonsocialintegration Fifty-four percentofallWNMs whothinkthatthe clash betweentheWest andIslam (see Figure 3). social integrationagree withstatementspresenting a who feelthatthegovernmentspendstoomuchon Forty-four percentofBMs and47 percentofWNMs Social Mixing Islam (see Figure 3,andseeMethodology* agreed withextreme statementsabouttheWest and who feeldiscriminatedagainstfortheirpoliticalviews Thirty-five percentof WNMs and36percentofBMs (see Figure 3). most extreme statementsaboutIslam andtheWest than BMs (37versus28percent) toagree withthe discriminated fortheirrace,WNMs are more likely about Islam (see Figure 4). Out ofthosewhofeel (40 percent) alsoagree withnegativestatements because oftheirrace(49 percent) andpoliticalviews Most WNMs whosaytheyfacediscrimination Discrimination Race orCulture? British White Non-Muslims: 18

). indicate apotentialtodevelopmore racialisedviews. agency, discriminationandsocialmixing. This might positions are thesameasthosefocusedonculture: the factorsofagreement withracialisedfar-right framed around culture ratherthanrace.Troublingly, This suggeststhatfar-rightsentimentintheUKis (6 percent). that you are nottrulyBritish unlessyouare white iswhite(7percent)to ensure ourcountry and supremacist viewssuchasthatallBrits shouldstrive Islam, onlyasmallminoritystrayintoclearwhite respondents whohavenegativeattitudesabout However, asopposedtothetwo-fifthsof WNM to white supremacism. to white supremacism. to theiradvantageagree withstatementsrelated who thinkthatJewishpeople have usedtheHolocaust this subset.Twenty-six to29percent ofrespondents We cannotignore theprevalence of anti-Semitism in statements (17 and18versus6percent). * it isnotspendingenoughtoagree with thispairof are almostthree timesaslikely asthosewhothink government isspendingtoomuchonsocialintegration Regarding socialmixing, WNMs whothinkthe versus 5and4percent). statements suggestingracialsupremacism (12 and13 report neverfeelingdiscriminated against toagree with deal ofdiscriminationare more likely thanthosewho On discrimination,WNMs whofeelsubjecttoagreat 6 percent). Brits should strivetobewhite(16 and13versus to positivelyinfluencetheirfuture tothinkthatall be positiveare more likely thanthosewhofeelable their future andwhodonotthinktheirfuture will In termsofagency, WNMs whofeelnocontrol over to Islamic countries.” different and secondlyourculture isvery, very anymoremuch of a religious to be honest country throats, becausefirstlytheUKisnot really that “Do toscream yourreligion downour nottry letting more peopleinandtrustthem.” chaos andterror, therefore howcanwekeep “The causing minorityare ruiningitforeveryone, WNM, male,aged26-30, Scotland WNM, male,aged22-25, London

FIGURE 3 Indicators correlated with agreeing with extremist statements about the West and Islam

EXTREMIST STATEMENT THE DATA

There is an unresolvable conflict between the 23% West and Islam and/or conflict between the 27% West and Islam would be a good thing

British white non-Muslims

British Muslims

AGENCY

31% No control over future 41%

Do not think future 27% will be positive 38%

DISCRIMINATION

Feel discriminated 37% for their race 28%

Feel discriminated for their 35% political views 36%

SOCIAL MIXING

Government spends too 47% much on social integration 44%

41% No friends from di erent race 35%

British white non-Muslims in this category’s agreement with extremist statement

British Muslims in this category’s agreement with extremist statement

Source: Q13b: From the statements below, please select the statements you agree with the most: NET: There is unresolvable conflict between Islam and the West/ Conflict between the West and Islam would be a good thing. Base size: British Muslims (269), British white non-Muslims (227).

19 THE DATA 20 FIGURE 4

Indicators correlated withagreeing withcombinationofextremist statementsaboutIslam Islam promotes violence and/or there are There are no-goareas inBritain where sharialawdominates.Base size: whitenon-Muslim respondents (308). Source: Q13b:From the statements below, pleaseselect the statements you agree with the most:NET: Islam promotes violence/ no-go areas where sharialaw dominates British whitenon-Muslims in this category’sagreement withextremist statement British whitenon-Muslims Feel discriminated for their much onsocialintegration Government spends too No control over future Do not think future Feel discriminated EXTREMIST STATEMENT will bepositive political views for their race DISCRIMINATION SOCIAL MIXING AGENCY 31% 33% 39% 40% 49% 54% FIGURE 5 Disaggregation of demographic indicators linked to most prevalent extremist statement  for white non-Muslims THE DATA

BRITISH WHITE NON-MUSLIMS

MOST PREVALENT NARRATIVE

The West vs Islam

31%

“Islam promotes violence”

“There are no-go areas where sharia law dominates”

GENDER

2 in 5 men agree

TERTIARY EDUCATION

Equal % of people with or without tertiary education

AGE

3 in 10 young people agree

LOCATION

Scotland

North East Northern Ireland Yorkshire& Humberside North West

East Midlands West Midlands Eastern Wales

London South East South West

21 THE DATA corresponds tothemiddleorthirdmostextreme minority groups aheadofwhitepeople,which that governmentpoliciesdisproportionately support Fourteen percentofWNMs agreed withtheidea per cent ofWNMs (see Figure 6). about victimisationtestedinthepoll,versus17and12 of BMs agree withthetwomostextreme positions for unjusttreatment. Thirty-four and18percent the ideathataspecificgroup isbeingsingledout out ofallthestatementsaboutextremism. This is making itthemostprevalent narrativeforthisgroup statements thatpromote feelingsofvictimhood, A significantpercentage ofBMs agreed with Overview VICTIMISATION 22 FIGURE 6 Britain/ None of these. Base size: AllBritish whitenon-Muslims (1,011). UK/ Government policiesdisproportionately supportminority groups aheadof whitepeople/Whitepeopleare aminority in even if they are white/British culture isunder threat from invasion/ Whitepeopleare increasingly discriminatedagainst in the Q9b: From the statements below, pleaseselect the statements you agree with the most:Everyone can bediscriminatedagainst, of these. Base size: AllBritish Muslims (1,011). disproportionately impactMuslims/ British society isintrinsically anti-Muslim/ There isnoanti-Muslim sentiment in the UK/ None targeted in the UKandglobally/ Anti-Muslim sentiment iswidespread insociety/ Government policies/surveillance Source: Q9a:From the statements below, pleaseselect the statements you agree with the most:Muslims are systematically British whitenon-Muslims

Statements thatsuggestfeelingsofvictimhoodamongBMs andWNMs targeted in the UKandglobally Muslims are systematically intrinsically anti-Muslim British Muslims British culture isunder threat from invasion a minority inBritain White peopleare British society is in this category. agreeing with anyofthefourextremist messages Below are somekey indicatorscorrelated with being brought upduringdiscussions. common mythofmigrantsreceiving more benefits better treatment from thegovernment,with that immigrantsandminoritygroups are getting online communityforumspontaneouslymentioned report, Narratives ofHate. WNM participantsinour position inourscale,aspresented inourprevious and justliveonbenefits.” to take advantage ofitandlivehere withoutajob immigration policyasitisquiteeasyforpeople weak “I thinkthegovernment hasavery 12% 17% 18% WNM, male,aged18-21, SouthEast 34% Main Indicators Social Mixing

In this category, the correlations are stronger for BMs Forty-seven per cent of WNMs who think that THE DATA than WNMs. multiculturalism has made the UK a worse place to live and/or that cultures should live separately also believe that British culture is under threat from invasion Agency (see Figure 7).

BM respondents who feel they have no control over There is less correlation for BMs. Thirty-two per cent their future, and who think their future will not be of those who think multiculturalism has made Britain positive, are more likely to agree that British society a worse place to live and/or that cultures should live is inherently anti-Muslim than those who feel able separately also think that Muslims are systematically to positively shape their future (24 versus 18 per cent, targeted in the UK and globally (see Figure 7). see Figure 8). This corresponds to the second most Twenty-three per cent of BMs who agree with negative extreme statement in our spectrum on victimisation sentiments about multiculturalism also think British (see Methodology). society is intrinsically anti-Muslim (see Figure 8).

Agency is also important for WNMs. Those who feel no control over their future (24 per cent) are more likely than those who think they can positively influence their future (17 per cent) to agree with the idea that British culture is under threat from invasion (see Figure 7).

Discrimination

Muslims who have faced discrimination are almost twice as likely as those who have not to agree with the idea that Muslims are systematically targeted in the UK and abroad, which is the most extreme position among those tested (37 versus 20 per cent). Forty- four per cent of those who feel discriminated against for their political views, and 39 per cent of those who feel discriminated against for their race or religion also agreed with this statement (see Figure 7).

In the case of WNMs, 39 per cent of all of those who feel subject to discrimination for their race agree with the statement that British culture is under threat from invasion, which is the most extreme position of those tested. Feeling discriminated against for their political views also correlates with picking this statement (25 per cent), although no more than other options (see Figure 7).

23 THE DATA 24 FIGURE 7 you agree with the most:British culture isunder threat from invasion. Base size: British whitenon-Muslims (120). targeted in the UK andglobally. Base size: British Muslims (178). Q9b: From the statements below, pleaseselect the statements Source: Q9a:From the statements below, pleaseselect the statements you agree with the most:Muslims are systematically British culture isunder No control over future Feel discriminated for threat from invasion

and cultures should their politicalviews Do not think future British Muslims in this category’sagreement withextremist statement British whitenon-Muslims in this category’sagreement withextremist statement British Muslims British whitenon-Muslims worse place to live has made the UKa Indicators correlated withagreeing withthemostextremist statementsaboutvictimisation Feel discriminated Multiculturalism will bepositive live separately for their race 17% EXTREMIST STATEMENT 20% DISCRIMINATION 24% SOCIAL MIXING 25% AGENCY targeted in the UKandglobally 39% Muslims are systematically 47% No control over future Feel discriminated for and cultures should Do not think future their politicalviews Feel discrimination worse place to live has made the UKa Multiculturalism will bepositive live separately a great deal 31% 32% 34% 35% 39% 44% FIGURE 8 Indicators correlated with agreeing with the second most extremist statements about victimisation

EXTREMIST STATEMENT THE DATA

White people are a British society is 12% 18% minority in Britain intrinsically anti-Muslim

British white non-Muslims

British Muslims

AGENCY

No control over future 19% No control over future 24%

Do not think future Do not think future 19% 24% will be positive will be positive

DISCRIMINATION

Feel discriminated Feel discrimination 25% 28% for their race a great deal

Feel discriminated for Feel discriminated for 22% 25% their political views their political views

SOCIAL MIXING

Government spends too Government spends too 21% 28% much on social integration much on social integration

British white non-Muslims in this category’s agreement with extremist statement

British Muslims in this category’s agreement with extremist statement

Source: Q9a: From the statements below, please select the statements you agree with the most: British society is intrinsically anti-Muslim. Base size: British Muslims (178). Q9b: From the statements below, please select the statements you agree with the most: White people are a minority in Britain. Base size: British white non-Muslims (120).

25 THE DATA establishment views) alsoagree withthisstatement. (38 per centWest versusIslam, and40percentanti- show alignmentwiththeotherextremist narratives Yet asignificantpercentage of respondents who (41 versus26percent). government isspendingtoomuchonsocialintegration to agree withthisstatementthanthosewhothinkthe enough onsocialintegrationare 1.5 timesmore likely respondents whothinkthegovernmentisnotspending (35 percent). When itcomestointegration,BM no control overtheirfuture agree withthisstatement influence theirfuture positivelyandwhofeeltheyhave An equalnumberofrespondents whofeeltheycan and positive sentimentsonagencyandintegration. there isalsocorrelation betweenthisstatement to agreement withextremist statements.However, discrimination, are particularlysalientwhenitcomes lack ofagency, limitedsocialmixingandfeelingsof The pollsuggeststhatsomeindicators,suchas extreme position. what globally. This asitcorresponds to result isworrying Muslims are systematicallytargeted intheUKand One-third ofBMs agree withthesentimentthat Case Study: or Discrimination? British Muslims: Victimisation 26 Narratives ofDivision identifiedasthemost

issue for policymakers tostarttackling. promote theirworldviews.This isanever-pressing Worryingly, extremist groups canexploitthisto in separatingdiscriminationfrom victimisation. Muslims intheUKandexemplifiesdifficulty This speakstohowprevalent discriminationisfor ethnicity constitutedalowbasesizeinoursample.* evidentrealities ofdiscrimination.Thosevery ofblack ethnicity (34and38percent), allofwhichrelate to being female(40 percent) orfrom Asianorblack and government.Other prevalent indicatorsincluded anti-Muslim sentimentiscommoninsociety, media participants inouronlinecommunityreport that against (37 versus20percent). Many Muslim targeting asthosewhodonotfeeldiscriminated being almosttwiceaslikely tobelieveinsystematic sentiment, withBMs whofacediscrimination Discrimination isstrongly correlated withthis pick thisanswer. people haveusedtheHolocaust totheiradvantage Likewise, 51 percentofthosewhothinkthatJewish British politics.” how normalizedIslamophobia has becomewithin in niqabsasletterboxes perfectlysummarizes (…) havingaPM whoopenlyreferred towomen targeted inbothGovernment andwidersociety “I oftenfeelthatMuslims are disproportionately Muslim, male,aged22-25, London FIGURE 9 Disaggregation of demographic indicators linked to most prevalent extremist narrative for British Muslims THE DATA

BRITISH MUSLIMS

MOST PREVALENT NARRATIVE

Victimisation

34%

“Muslims are systematically targeted in the UK and globally”

GENDER

2 in 5 women agree

TERTIARY EDUCATION

Slightly higher % of people with tertiary education agree

AGE

3 in 10 young people agree

LOCATION

Scotland

North East Northern Ireland Yorkshire& Humberside North West

East Midlands West Midlands Eastern Wales

London South East South West

27 THE DATA in this category (seein this category Figures 10 and11). with anyofthetwogroups ofextremist messages Below are somekey indicators correlated withagreeing the system. nature ofpoliticsasadeterrent toengagingwith WNMs pointingtotheconfusingandever-changing obstacles infullyengagingwiththesystem,some online communitiesandfoundthatmanyexperienced (see Methodology). We unpicked thisstatementinthe middle orthirdmostextreme positioninourscale with thepoliticalsystem,whichcorresponds tothe of BMs agree thatthere islittlevalueinengaging Twenty-three percentofWNMs and17percent (see Figure 11). or that youare atraitortoIslam (9percent) cent), thatyouare notatruebeliever(9percent) politics, underminestheMuslim community(11 per engaging withnon-Muslim institutions,suchasUK Additionally, oneintenBMrespondents believethat government shouldbeboycotted(see Figure 10). thatdemocracyisbrokencategory: and/or thatthe of BMs agree withthemostextreme positionsinthis Twenty-three percentofWNMs and24 percent Overview DELEGITIMISING THE GOVERNMENT 28 individual toinfluence it.” hard foran in thepoliticalsystemasitisvery littlevalueinengaging “I thinkthere isavery very complicated.” given howoftenitchanges,andcanget political system,andIcanunderstandthat “I feellike many peopledonotengageinthe and confused.” andengageinasystemsoscatteredto try “Current affairssuchas Brexit domake itdifficult needs tobeputinbefore yourvoiceisheard.” and offputting. Ifeelasthoughalotofeffort frustrating the politicalsystemrendering itvery “I feelasthoughitisalongprocess toengage with WNM, male,aged18-21, Yorkshire andHumberside Muslim, male,aged22-25, London Muslim, male,aged22-25, London WNM, male,aged18-21, London Discrimination like UKpolitics,meansyouare atraitortoIslam. to think thatengagingwithnon-Muslim institutions, feel abletoinfluencetheirfuture (7percent) who per cent; seeFigure 13) are twiceaslikely asthose or who feelnocontrol overtheirfuture (19 and17 BMs whodonotthinktheirfuture willbepositive and replacing democracy. per cent) toagree withsentimentsaboutboycotting to positivelyinfluencetheirfuture (36versus22 future are more likely thanthosewhofeelable 12). Those whofeeltheyhavenocontrol overtheir negative statementsaboutdemocracy(see Figure who thinktheirfuture willnotbepositiveagree with More BMs thanWNMs (37versus30percent) Agency Main Indicators 24 versus8percent; seeFigure 13). * a traitortoIslam (religion: 23versus8percent;race: Muslim institutions, suchasUKpolitics,meansyouare likely toagree withtheideathatengaging non- versus 23percentonaverage). They are also are more replacing democracyversusthosewho do(30and27 religion are more likely toagree withstatementsabout BMs who do nothavefriendsfrom adifferent raceor Social Mixing see Figure 12). who feelthesame(46 versus36percent; negative statementsaboutdemocracythanBMs against fortheirpoliticalviewsagree withthese significant. More WNMs who feel discriminated The targeted characteristicsofdiscriminationare who never facediscrimination(4 percent). with theideathatdemocracyisbroken thanthose discrimination (25percent) are more likely toagree Figure 12).The totalofBMs whoreport feeling boycotting democracy(41 versus31percent;see BMs thanWNMs agree withideasofreplacing and Of thosewhofacediscriminationagreat deal,more FIGURE 10 Agreement with extremist statements about democracy THE DATA

People like me should boycott 11% the government 9%

Democracy is broken, and we 17% should replace it completely 16%

British white non-Muslims British Muslims

Source: Q10: From the statements below, please select the statements you agree with the most: I have criticisms about the government but believe in democracy/ I oppose some government policies but am open to engaging with government to improve them/ There is little value in engaging with the political system/ Democracy is broken, and we should replace it completely/ People like me should boycott the government/ None of these. Base size: All respondents (2,022).

FIGURE 11 Agreement with extremist statements about Muslims and UK politics

Engaging with non-Muslim institutions, like UK politics,

means you are a traitor to Islam 9%

means you are not a true believer 9%

undermines the Muslim community 11%

British Muslims

Source: Q13a: From the statements below, please select the statements you agree with the most: Muslims are diverse and so are their political views/ There are certain issues that good Muslims should care about/ Muslims should have a united stance on political issues/ Engaging with non-Muslim institutions, like UK politics, undermines the Muslim community/ Engaging with non-Muslim institutions, like UK politics, means you are not a true believer/ Engaging with non-Muslim institutions, like UK politics, means you are a traitor to Islam/ None of these. Base size: All British Muslims (1,011).

29 THE DATA 30 FIGURE 12

Indicators correlated withagreeing withextremist statementsaboutdemocracy non-Muslims (242). we should replace itcompletely/ People like me shouldboycott the government. Base size: British Muslims (235), British white Source: Q10:From the statements below, pleaseselect the statements you agree with the most: NET: Democracy isbroken, and British Muslims British whitenon-Muslims British Muslims in this category’sagreement withextremist statement British whitenon-Muslims in this category’sagreement withextremist statement like meshouldboycott the government be replaced completely and/or people Democracy isbroken, anditshould much onsocialintegration Government spends too No control over future Feel discriminated for Faces discrimination Do not think future their politicalviews EXTREMIST STATEMENT will bepositive a great deal DISCRIMINATION SOCIAL MIXING AGENCY 23% 24% 30% 31% 32% 32% 36% 36% 36% 37% 41% 46% FIGURE 13 Indicators correlated with agreeing with extremist statements about Muslims and UK politics

EXTREMIST STATEMENT THE DATA

Engaging with non-Muslim institutions, like UK politics, means 9% you are a traitor to Islam

British Muslims

AGENCY

No control over future 17%

Do not think future 19% will be positive

DISCRIMINATION

Feel discriminated 14% for their race

Feel discriminated for their political views 14%

SOCIAL MIXING

No friends from 24% dierent race

No friends from dierent religion 23%

British Muslims in this category’s agreement with extremist statement

Source: Source: Q13a: From the statements below, please select the statements you agree with the most: Engaging with non-Muslim institutions, like UK politics, means you are a traitor to Islam. Base size: All British Muslims (90).

31 THE DATA online communitiesworktookplacemighthave It islikely thatthepoliticalcontextinwhich often in relation toperceived Islamophobia. spokespeople cameuptimeandagain, counterparts. Comments from government trusted thegovernmentthantheirnon-Muslim and are more likely tosaythattheyhavenever Muslim respondents display higherlevelsofdistrust is little valueinengagingwiththepoliticalsystem. are more likely toagree withtheclaimthatthere scepticism. Those from aworking-classbackground only through distantrhetoricthatcanreinforce and therefore trusted,whereas Westminster isseen levels oftrust.Actionsbylocalgovernmentare visible thatcontactcanimprove credence tothetheory more likely tosupportlocalgovernment.This gives generally distrustedthegovernmentbutwere In general,participantsinouronlinecommunities detail thissignificantissueofdistrustingovernment. out a57-person onlinequalitativestudytoexplore in In additiontothequantitativesurvey, wealsocarried Case Study: replacing democracy. also agree withthesentimentofboycottingand place toliveand/or thatcultures shouldliveseparately agree thatmulticulturalismhasmadeBritain aworse Forty-seven percentofbothBMs andWNMs who democracy andthegovernment(see Figure 12).* integration alsoagree withnegativestatementsabout think thegovernmentisspendingtoomuchonsocial Thirty-two percentofbothBMs andWNMs who Trust inGovernment 32 and try tohelptacklethem.” and try that theproblems thatthelocalarea are facing As theyare from thelocalarea, sotheyknow theirbesttoimprove ourlocalcommunity.trying “I dobelievethat[elected representatives] are

Muslim, female,aged22-25, North West

of securitisationandgovernmentcontrol. to rebuilding trustingovernment,includingmeasures underlying opennesstoauthoritarianpoliticalsolutions Yet ouronlinecommunities also revealed aworrying broader agenda. broader agenda. this instinctivesentimenttobuildsupportfortheir to complexchallenges,extremist groups canhijack by extremist groups. By presenting simplesolutions These are the feelings that can potentially be exploited reflect underlyingfeelingsoffear and insecurity. support forstrongman governments. They could and timetoprocess complexchallenges ratherthan be instinctive,showingmore alackofinformation However, itshouldbecaveatedthatresponses may among youngpeople,thisisespeciallyworrying. Given thatpollsshowfallingsupportfordemocracy to get hisBrexit dealthrough Parliament. while Prime Minister Boris Johnsonwasattempting communities were conductedinOctober 2019, political challengessuchasBrexit. The online linking theirlackoftrustinthesystemtocurrent influenced the respondents’ answers,withseveral and unfairly gottheirway.” Right-winged politiciansillegally, unethically Brexit andtheCambridge Analytica scandal. “I dothinkdemocracyisbroken, especiallyafter anything dangerous.” people ofinterest’s conversations, lookingfor a teamofpeoplewhosejobitistogothrough organisations, like WhatsApp, theycouldhave media outletthatiscommonlyusedbyterrorist “If thegovernment wastoworkalongsideasocial why bothervoting?” outthewillofpeople–therefore carrying but themajoritydecidedtoleaveyetMPs are not “The Brexit votehasresulted insuchabigmess, WNM, female,aged26-30, West Midlands WNM, female,aged18-21, SouthEast Muslim, male,aged22-25, London 22 VIOLENCE Our polling also confirms that there is an overlap between non-violent and violent extremist views.

While half of both BM and WNM respondents agree Between one- and two-fifths of those who agree with THE DATA that there is never any justification for terrorism or extremist messaging about victimisation, the West political violence, a smaller but not negligible minority versus Islam, anti-establishment views and anti- sympathise with violent messaging: Semitism also buy into the idea of defending their culture or religion with force. • Thirteen per cent of both groups believe that violent action is sometimes necessary and justified “Resorting to violence can become a means to achieve change. of expressing frustration. Does that make it right? No. Should you have to be forced to • Fifteen per cent of BMs agreed that people protest for your basic rights? No. So it is quite should be prepared to go out to fight to defend circumstantial.” their religion or culture with force (compared with Muslim, male, aged 22-25, London 9 per cent of WNMs, see Figure 14). “People who are disproportionately affected Our online focus groups show that the majority of by issues may resort to violence if they feel participants do not see violence as an acceptable desperate, or that there is no other way to get vehicle for change. Some participants see violence what they want/need.” as circumstantial and cite examples from history or WNM, female, aged 18-21, South East current affairs in which violent resistance helped bring about democracy. This could indicate a willingness for ends to justify the means.

FIGURE 14 Agreement with statements about violence

People should be prepared to go out and fight 9% to defend their religion or culture with force 15%

Violent action is sometimes necessary 13% and justified to achieve change 13%

British white non-Muslims British Muslims

Source: Q12: From the statements below, please select the statements you agree with the most: There is never any justification for terrorism or political violence/ Some acts that are considered terrorism could be a response to government policies/ Certain groups are justified in their use of armed resistance/ Violent action is sometimes necessary and justified to achieve change/ People should be prepared to go out and fight to defend their religion or culture with force/ None of these. Base size: All respondents (2,022).

33 THE DATA 34 Methodology The Spectrum of Islamist-Inspired and Far-Right Worldviews

Our previous two reports in this series provided a resource mapping views from mainstream to extreme on the key narratives of Islamist-inspired and far-right groups (see Tables 1 and 2 below). Underpinned by a quantitative analysis of non-violent and violent extremists’ public statements, these frameworks present gradations in ideology to help chart the grey area between divisive language and extremism.

Quantitative Survey

Savanta ComRes conducted an online survey of 1,011 young British Muslims and 1,011 young non- Muslim white Britons aged 18–30 in May 2019, as well as a regression analysis (Key Drivers Analysis) of the survey data. Data from the online survey were weighted to be representative of:

• Muslims by age, gender, region and ethnicity in Britain. • White non-Muslims by age, gender and region in Britain.

35 The aim of the survey was to explore the extent to Savanta ComRes ran a series of regression analyses which the divisive “us vs them” political narratives to understand the statistically significant factors that of Islamist and far-right groups are resonating with lead respondents to agree with extremist statements young people in the UK. To do so, we designed a list of in the survey. This compared the dependent variable survey questions that matched each of the categories or “extremism coefficient” – which measures the

METHODOLOGY from the spectra in our previous reports (see Tables 1 degree of agreement with extremist statements and 2). These are: victimisation, Islam versus the West, – with other attitudinal, demographic or media delegitimising the government or anti-establishment, consumption factors. “good” Muslim versus “bad” Muslim, the centrality of Islam in politics and justification of violence. We also added questions reflective of a spectrum of views on Qualitative Study anti-Semitism, multiculturalism and Islam. From 30 September to 4 October 2019, Savanta We adapted the five gradations of the spectra to form ComRes ran two online communities with 57 adults the basis of our polling questions so we could gauge of the same characteristics in an online platform. One the level of agreement with the more extreme end group consisted of young British Muslims, the other of the spectrum. Throughout this report, we identify young white non-Muslims. Respondents engaged in these extreme statements with the symbols “ ” interactive conversations and participated in creative and “ ”. This allows us to link the statement and tasks including picture books and “ideastorms”. its response to its position on our tables (see Table The research questions for this study were: 1 and Table 2) depicting a spectrum of views from mainstream to extreme. • Why do young people not trust the government? • What could government do to restore young Within the data, as portrayed throughout this report, people’s trust in the system? some questions prompted multiple answers from respondents. Therefore, the sum of the total responses sometimes exceeds 100 per cent. Additionally, there are references to aggregated responses that combine multiple responses. This is marked as relevant.

Within this report, there are references to quantitative data with a base size of less than 100 respondents. This is a result of the niche audience interviewed, and the even more specific sub-samples analysed. These are clearly indicated with an asterisk (*). As a result, those data points should be used for indicative purposes only. This is to be expected, since extremist views are held by a minority. While the findings have pinpointed strong correlations between extremist views and issues such as agency, discrimination and social mixing, we should bear in mind that extremism is a complex phenomenon that cannot be explained by just one factor.

36 TABLE 1 A range of positions from mainstream to extreme on six key Islamist narratives METHODOLOGY

Victimisation “Good Muslim” vs Islam vs Delegitimising the The Centrality of Justification of “Bad Muslim” the West Government Islam in Politics Violence

Raises awareness Does not label Sees no conflict May criticise but Sees Islam as a Makes no attempt of anti-Muslim Muslims with between being does not reject the spiritual guide, to justify violence incidents di erent views as Muslim and British political system which may influence disloyal political views Mainstream

Sometimes uses Occasionally Highlights distinct Takes a strong Sees Muslim identity Provides some alarmist rhetoic questions motives Muslim and stance against as a reference point justification about anti-Muslim of Muslims with Western identities existing policies but for activism. for violence discrimination di erent views but sees no clash open to engagement permeating society

Sees victimisation Regularly portrays Emphasises tensions Sees little value in Believes Islam should Openly supports as a consequence some Muslims as between West and engaging with a have a central role violent international of a security state being against fellow Muslims world system seen as in politics groups Muslims against Muslims

Sees victimisation Uses hostile Portrays West as Actively seeks to Supports Islamic Believes violent as systemic and language against antagonistic towards delegitimise govt in governance or a jihad can be justified inevitable Muslims seen as Muslims eyes of Muslims unified authority traitors over Muslim states

Believes in global Classifies all Perceives inherent Rejects Western Advocates a global Directly encourages conspiracy against Muslims who do unresolvable conflict democratic model Islamic caliphate violence Muslims not hold same views between Islam and advocates as apostates and West complete overhaul Extreme

TABLE 2 A range of positions from mainstream to extreme on four key far-right narratives

Justification Islam vs the West Victimisation Anti-Establishment of Violence

Sees no conflict Does not believe people May criticise but does Does not condone violence between being are discriminated against not reject wider British and Muslim for being white political system Mainstream

Criticises some Believes political Believes certain “elites” Provides some justification aspects of Islam and correctness can make it are responsible for an for violence multiculturalism harder to be white unjust system

Believes in Believes that society is Accuses the “elites” of Argues that violent action protecting British privileging minority betraying the “people” is sometimes justified to culture against groups ahead of white achieve change multiculturalism people

Sees Islam as a growing and Believes Britain is Advocates drastic Openly supports individuals violent threat becoming unsafe for changes to the and groups who have white people democratic system committed acts of violence which it sees as corrupt

Believes that the Believes there is a global Advocates complete Urges people to fight to Christian West conspiracy to replace the overhaul of political defend their religion or should unite against Islam white race system and rejection of culture with force democracy Extreme

37 METHODOLOGY

38 References

39 1 Prince’s Trust, “Youth Index 2019”, 5 February 11 https://thelinkingnetwork.org.uk/contact-details/ 2019, https://www.princes-trust.org.uk/about-the-trust/ national-linking-network/bradford/ research-policies-reports/youth-index-2019 12 BEMIS, “Parents4all”, https://bemis.org.uk/ 2 https://institute.global/co-existence/genera- project/parents4all/ REFERENCES tion-global 13 http://parents4all.eu/outputs/training-materi- 3 Lisa Guernsey, “A New Program Has Helped al-for-the-development-of-intercultural-skills-by-par- Bring Better Media Literacy to Ukraine”, New Amer- ents/ ica, 10 May 2018, https://www.newamerica.org/weekly/ edition-206/new-program-has-helped-bring-better-me- 14 Home Office, “Government Response to dia-literacy-ukraine/ Commission for Countering Extremism Report in extremism”, 7 October 2019, https://homeofficemedia. 4 Erin Murrock, Joy Amulya, Mehri Druckman blog.gov.uk/2019/10/07/government-response-to-com- and Tetiana Liubyva, “Impact Study on Citizens’ Ability mission-for-countering-extremism-report-into-extrem- to Detect Disinformation 1.5 years after Complet- ism/ ing a News Media Literacy Program”, IREX, 2018, https://www.irex.org/sites/default/files/node/resource/ 15 https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/ impact-study-media-literacy-ukraine.pdf. cve_strategy_20_8_19.pdf

5 Lisa Guernsey, “A New Program” 16 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home- news/terror-attacks-uk-extremism-isis-farright-london- 6 Home Office, “Home Secretary Announces witness-sadiq-khan-a8759216.html New National Online Hate Crime Hub”, 8 October 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/home-secre- 17 Vikram Dodd and Jamie Grierson, “Fast- tary-announces-new-national-online-hate-crime-hub est-growing UK terrorist threat is from far right, say police,” The Guardian, 19 September 2019, https:// 7 Cardiff University, “Online Hate Speech Report www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/19/fastest- Launched”, 26 November 2019, https://www.cardiff. growing-uk-terrorist-threat-is-from-far-right-say-police ac.uk/news/view/1729524-online-hate-speech-report- launched 18 Vikram Dodd and Jamie Grierson, “Fast- est-growing UK terrorist threat is from far right, say 8 Louise Casey, “The Casey Review: A Review police,” The Guardian, 19 September 2019, https:// into Opportunity and Integration”, December 2016, www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/19/fastest- https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/ growing-uk-terrorist-threat-is-from-far-right-say-police uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/575973/ The_Casey_Review_Report.pdf 19 https://savanta.com/coronavirus-data-tracker/

9 Peter Walker, “Cameron’s £1.5bn ‘Big Society’ 20 https://savanta.com/coronavirus-data-tracker/ Youth Scheme Reaching Few Teenagers”, Guardian, 2 August 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/socie- 21 https://comresglobal.com/polls/savanta-com- ty/2018/aug/02/david-cameron-15bn-big-society-na- res-political-tracker-july-2020/ tional-citizen-service-reaches-few-teenagers 22 The Challenge, “British Integration Survey 10 Sebastien Malo, “Children May Be their Par- 2019”, June 2019, https://the-challenge.org/cms/up- ents’ Best Climate-change Teachers, Scientists Find”, loads/the-british-integration-survey.pdf Thomson Reuters Foundation, 6 May 2019, http:// news.trust.org/item/20190506144457-lnoe6/

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