America’s vaccine roll-out plan Better, greener farming in Britain Covid’s corporate winners and losers Berth control: car seats and babies

NOVEMBER 28TH–DECEMBER 4TH 2020

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Contents The Economist November 28th 2020 5

The world this week United States 8 A summary of political 21 Rolling out the vaccines and business news 22 Covid-19 in the Midwest 23 Team Biden Leaders 24 Gender wars 11 Democracy How resilient is it? 25 Obscure laws 26 Lexington The end of 12 Covid-19 and business What doesn’t kill you the embarrassment 13 Ethiopia The Americas Preventing war crimes 27 Venezuela 13 Fiscal stimulus The right discipline 28 Diego Maradona dies 30 Bello The future of On the cover 14 The pandemic and exams Papers, please Bolsonarismo Although it has been in 15 Agriculture in Britain recession, democracy contains Ploughing its own furrow the seeds of its own recovery: leader, page 11. A power- Asia hungry prime minister Letters 31 South Korea’s prosecutors threatens to turn India into a 16 On covid-19 testing, one-party state: briefing, Germany, women’s 32 Tamils in Sri Lanka page 18. The assumption that suffrage, free speech, 33 Singapore’s crime wave Republicans will remain in rock stars, Singapore, 33 India, Pakistan thrall to Donald Trump could trains, bitcoin and Kashmir be misplaced: Lexington, 34 Banyan Australia v China page 26 Briefing • America’s vaccine roll-out 18 Democracy in India China plan What the federal Subcontinental drift 35 Barriers to Sinology government and states have in mind, page 21. The latest 36 A hit dating-show anti-covid-19 vaccine, page 69 37 Chaguan Lessons from a patriotic businessman • Better, greener farming in Britain Outside the EU, farmers can plough their own furrow: leader, page 15. A bold attempt to change British agriculture Middle East & Africa runs into two problems: politics 39 American sanctions and sheep, page 52 40 Israel and Saudi Arabia • Covid-19’s corporate winners 41 Riots in Uganda and losers Has the pandemic 41 Nigeria’s cash clash made incumbent firms stronger? 42 Migration from Africa Page 12. How social distancing is changing the business of getting people together, page 57

Banyan Australia learns the hard way about facing We are working hard to China’s wrath, page 34 ensure that there is no dis- ruption to print copies of The Economist as a result of the coronavirus. But if you have digital access as part of your subscription, then acti- vating it will ensure that you can always read the digital version of the newspaper as well as all of our daily jour- nalism. To do so, visit economist.com/activate 1 Contents continues overleaf 6 Contents The Economist November 28th 2020

Europe Finance & economics 43 The Sweden Democrats 63 Christine Lagarde 44 Swedish gang violence 64 Janet Yellen at the 45 Sicily and EU cash Treasury 45 European defence rows 65 Buttonwood M&A 46 Populist Polish pop 66 The Fed-Treasury spat 47 Charlemagne Newtonian 66 Debt collectors in China Europe 67 Hawala money transfers 68 Free exchange Credit Britain gluts 49 Public spending 50 Potholes Science & technology 51 Vaccine roll-out 69 Another covid-19 vaccine 52 Making farms greener 70 A solar autoclave 54 Bagehot Rishi Sunak 72 Fossil shark nurseries 72 Car seats and birth rates 74 The death of Arecibo International 55 Exams and covid-19 Books & arts 75 Asia’s revolutionaries 76 Ian McGuire’s new novel 77 An elegy for the whale 77 Mozart’s genius 78 Johnson Average Joe Business 57 The crowds business 59 A new biblio-behemoth Economic & financial indicators 59 Fading Black Friday 80 Statistics on 42 economies 60 Baidu and bots Graphic detail 60 The diversity industry 81 Why Europe’s second lockdowns are working 61 Bartleby Winter morale 62 Schumpeter Europe’s Obituary climate centurion 82 Jan Morris, journalist, essayist and historian

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8 The world this week Politics The Economist November 28th 2020

Nicolas Sarkozy, president of China launched a spacecraft, France from 2007-12, went on Chang’e 5, in the first attempt Coronavirus briefs trial accused of corruption and by any country to retrieve rock To 6am GMT November 26th 2020 influence-peddling. He is samples from the Moon in Weekly confirmed cases by area, m charged with having tried to more than 40 years. It is due to bribe a judge by promising return to Earth in December. 2.0 Europe assistance for a promotion in 1.5 return for information about Friendly governments and Latin America US 1.0 an investigation into him. other donors promised to give Other the Afghan government $12bn 0.5 France’s lower house passed a over the next four years at a 0 bill that would make it illegal conference in Geneva. That to share images of police for marks a decline from the $15bn NOSAJJMAM Federal forces in Ethiopia said “malicious purposes”. This law, pledged four years ago. Confirmed deaths* they had surrounded Mekelle, if also passed by the Senate, Per 100k Total This week the capital of the northern would make it harder to expose Authorities in Singapore Belgium 138.7 16,077 1,052 region of Tigray, and were police brutality. Brussels is charged Jolovan Wham, a Peru 108.2 35,685 368 about to attack the city to crush taking a look. civil-rights activist, with dis- Spain 94.2 44,037 1,998 a rebellious regional govern- turbing public order for briefly Italy 86.1 52,028 4,811 ment. They warned civilians to Donald Trump at last directed holding up a sign with a smiley Argentina 83.4 37,714 1,367 Britain 83.3 56,533 3,259 leave or receive “no mercy”. federal agencies to co-operate face on it. They maintain the Brazil 80.3 170,769 3,314 Ethnic clashes are exploding. with the transfer of power to act was an illegal protest. Mexico 80.3 103,597 4,069 Non-Tigrayans are being tar- Joe Biden. The president’s Chile 79.2 15,138 241 geted in Tigray—perhaps 600 refusal to do so had hindered Police in Thailand summoned United States 78.9 261,038 11,511

were massacred in one town. the flow of classified infor- 12 of the leaders of ongoing Sources: Johns Hopkins University CSSE; UN; Tigrayans are being singled out mation and other material to protests around the country in The Economist *Definitions differ by country elsewhere. Many have been Mr Biden. Mr Trump also par- connection with an investiga- arrested. Tigrayan soldiers in doned Michael Flynn, his first tion into lèse-majesté. The Several Asian countries, the national army have been national security adviser, who protesters have called for including Japan, Malaysia and disarmed. had pleaded guilty to lying to reforms to the monarchy. South Korea, reported an the fbi during the Mueller increase in cases. In Japan the Pre-election violence claimed investigation. Mr Trump is still Thousands of Guatemalans government suspended a at least 45 lives in Uganda. contesting the election result, protested against the budget campaign in some areas to Bobi Wine, an opposition without success. passed by the country’s Con- encourage people to travel. candidate, was arrested yet gress. Some set fire to Congress again. His supporters prot- Mr Biden started choosing his itself. They were angry that the Some European countries ested. Security forces shot team, picking Antony Blinken, budget included extra money outlined plans to ease re- several of them. who worked in Barack Obama’s for congressmen’s meal allow- strictions over Christmas. In administration, as his secre- ances but less for the judiciary, Britain three households will Israel’s prime minister, Binya- tary of state. Avril Haines, malnutrition and health. be able to meet up over a min Netanyahu, travelled to another Obama veteran, is to Congress backed down. five-day period. France will Saudi Arabia to meet Muham- be the director of national start reopening shops on mad bin Salman, the powerful intelligence; Jake Sullivan, a Mexico’s Senate voted for a bill November 28th and most crown prince. There was no former aide to Mr Biden, na- to legalise cannabis for recre- other restrictions will end on hint that the Saudi regime was tional security adviser. He also ational use. It would permit December 15th. Restaurants about to recognise Israel. created a new position of users to have up to 28g of will remain closed until Janu- Rather, the meeting seemed special envoy on climate cannabis and allow them to ary 20th, however. Germany intended to warn Iran to re- change. The job went to John grow up to four plants at home. went in the other direction strain its nuclear programme Kerry, who signed the Paris If the bill passes the lower and tightened its measures or risk a military strike, and to accord in 2015 as Mr Obama’s house of Congress Mexico until at least December 20th. hint to Joe Biden that the two secretary of state. In 2019 Mr would become the third coun- will oppose significant shifts Kerry started an initiative to try, after Uruguay and Canada, The Australian states of New in policy on the Middle East. hold politicians accountable if to legalise cannabis fully for South Wales and Victoria they fail to reduce emissions. recreational use nationwide. reopened their border. It was Iran released Kylie Moore- shut in July, and flights be- Gilbert, a British-Australian Joshua Wong, a prominent Diego Maradona, one of the tween Sydney and Melbourne academic detained in 2018 and activist in Hong Kong, was best footballers of all time, cancelled, amid a surge of the convicted of espionage in a remanded in custody after died, aged 60. Short of stature, virus in Victoria. After a rigid secret trial. She was reportedly pleading guilty to charges a dazzling dribbler and scorer lockdown, it has reported no swapped for Iranians arrested relating to last year’s pro- of marvellous goals, Mr Mara- new cases for several weeks. abroad. Separately Iran said it democracy unrest in the city. dona inspired Argentina, his will soon execute Ahmadreza Also detained were two leaders national team, to victory in the Djalali, an Iranian-Swedish of Mr Wong’s now-disbanded World Cup in 1986 (with a bit of For our latest coverage of the doctor, convicted in an unfair political group, Demosisto: help from his miraculous virus please visit economist.com/ trial on charges that were Agnes Chow and Ivan Lam. The “hand of God”). He also strug- coronavirus or download the brought after he refused to spy three are expected to be sen- gled with addictions to cocaine Economist app. for the government. tenced next month. and alcohol. COVID-19 has aff ected billions of lives. Some call it a ‘black swan event’. But it isn’t, pandemics have always existed.

Many of the eff ects of a pandemic of this scale have been known for years, knowledge to which Swiss Re’s analysis has contributed. As the world’s leading provider of reinsurance and risk transfer, we specialise in modelling and underwriting risk.

Swiss Re and the re/insurance industry have set aside billions to help shoulder the fi nancial impact of the pandemic. And across the world, countries have made emergency aid programmes available. Still, the suff ering and the uncertainty for those aff ected is enormous.

To do better next time, we as a society need to be better prepared. One solution is to partner in public-private risk-sharing arrangements to cover pandemic-related losses.

Swiss Re is committed to helping society become more resilient and progress. swissre.com 10 The world this week Business The Economist November 28th 2020

Researchers at AstraZeneca, a Tesla’s share price soared tested negative. American emissions contributes to a drug company, and Oxford again, following the news that airports had their busiest build-up. According to the University reported that their it is to be included in the s&p weekend since March, han- wmo this year’s “blip” will be vaccine for covid-19 is 70% 500 index from next month, dling more than 3m people no bigger than normal annual effective on average. In one which means tracker funds ahead of Thanksgiving. fluctuations. course of treatment that rises will be obliged to buy its stock. to 90%, close to the efficacy of The electric-car maker’s mar- The good news about vaccines Showing that America is not the other two recent vaccine ket capitalisation raced past also spurred a rally in oil mar- the only country that has a successes, though questions $500bn this week. That is more kets. Brent crude rose above problem with Chinese tech have been raised about the data than five times the combined $48 a barrel, its highest price firms, India’s government behind AstraZeneca’s trial. Its value of gm and Ford. since early March, before banned another 43 apps that it jab is expected to be cheaper markets went into meltdown said were “prejudicial” to the and easier to distribute global- Rishi Sunak, Britain’s chancel- over the coronavirus. country’s “sovereignty and ly. Three billion doses could be lor of the exchequer, produced integrity”. Tension along the ready next year. his spending review, which Bertelsmann emerged the Himalayan border between was as grim as expected. Mr winner in a bidding war for China and India has risen since Sunak noted that the emergen- Simon & Schuster, the pub- June and Delhi has banned 200 S&P 500 cbs 1941-43=10 cy had “only just begun”, fore- lishing arm of Viacom . Chinese apps in all, in what it casting that borrowing will be Bertelsmann, which owns describes as a “digital strike”. 4,000 £394bn ($530bn) this year, or Penguin Random House, is 3,500 19% of gdp, which would be the paying $2.2bn for the firm, 3,000 highest deficit in peacetime. In though getting the deal com- Move over Hollywood 2,500 addition to a public-sector pay pleted will be a page turner. Netflix announced that it 2,000 freeze he also took a swipe at Regulators will look closely at would spend $1bn on expand- foreign aid, by abandoning a the rationale for combining the ing its studios in Albuquerque, OSAJJMAMFJ N policy of spending 0.7% of publishers, which would have creating one of the largest 2020 national income on it. a third of the American market. film-production sites in North Source: Refinitiv Datastream America. Ten new stages, The good news on vaccines is With the roll-out of vaccines The drastic slowdown in global backlots and other facilities one factor that has pushed for covid-19 on the horizon, human activity because of will generate 1,000 production stockmarkets into new terri- airlines announced a raft of covid-19 has led to only a “tiny jobs and almost 1,500 in con- tory. The Dow Jones Industrial measures that they hope will blip” in the concentration of struction. It will make films Average passed the 30,000 make flying easier. Qantas greenhouse gases in the atmo- there, as well as the next series mark for the first time and is became the first big carrier to sphere, according to the World of “Stranger Things”. Last year on course for its best monthly suggest that it may ask pas- Meteorological Organisation. Netflix opened a production gain since1987. The s&p 500 hit sengers to prove they have had Emissions may have been hub at Britain’s Shepperton a new record; it is up by more a vaccination before boarding a reduced by between 4% and Studios and earlier this year than10% this month. plane. Five airlines, including 7.5% for the whole of the year plans were approved to build a United and Lufthansa, said relative to 2019, but CO2 re- studio complex near Ashford they would offer a “common mains in the atmosphere for in southern England that may Mellow Yellen pass” to travellers who have centuries, so any amount of house Netflix and Amazon. The growing probability of a smooth transfer of power to Joe Biden also cheered investors. His choice of Janet Yellen as treasury secretary was seen as a safe bet. The former chair- woman of the Federal Reserve should pass her confirmation hearing in the Senate, even if it remains under Republican control. Her first task will be to help craft a new stimulus bill.

One of the clearest signs yet that businesses are adapting to the new administration came from General Motors. The carmaker is withdrawing its support from the current government’s legal challenge to California’s vehicle-emis- sion standards, the toughest in America. Mr Biden will bring in “ambitious” targets when he takes office, when he will also have a new climate tsar. Leaders Leaders 11 The resilience of democracy

Although it has been in recession, democracy contains the seeds of its own recovery or all Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn this month’s elec- Identity politics, boosted by social media and partisan televi- Ftion, American democracy never looked likely to buckle after sion and radio, has re-engaged voters. Participation is the only polling day. Sure enough, on November 23rd, even as the presi- component of the eiu’s democracy index to have improved since dent once again condemned “the most corrupt election in Amer- 2006. Mr Biden and Mr Trump both won more votes than any ican history”, he agreed that the federal government should give presidential candidates in history. But in solving one of demo- Joe Biden the resources he needs to prepare for office. cracy’s problems, identity politics has created others. Mr Trump has still done harm, as have the Republican leaders That is because a politics that reinforces immutable identi- who indulged him (see Lexington). Given that four in every five ties leads away from the tolerance and forbearance a democracy Republican voters say the vote was “stolen”, trust in the fairness needs to solve social conflicts. In arguments about who gets of elections has been shaken and Mr Biden unjustly undermined what, people can split the difference and feel content. In argu- from the very start. Henceforth in close votes routine jobs like ments about who they are—over religion, race and anti-elitism, counting and certifying votes will risk being part of the battle- say—compromise can seem like betrayal. When ways of life are ground. That is not a threat to the republic’s existence, but it does at stake the other lot are not just mistaken, they are dangerous. mark a further partisan deterioration in American democracy. Having not mattered enough, elections now matter too much. It is also part of a global democratic recession. The collapse of In some countries majoritarian leaders have exploited this the Soviet Union led to a flourishing in the number and quality of tribal loyalty to nobble the institutions supposed to check them. liberal democracies, but the trend has now gone into reverse. In Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan governs as if democratic power Hungary and Poland are blocking the European Union budget is absolute and condemns those who block him as enemies of because their governments refuse to bow to the rule of law (see the republic. In Mexico Andrés Manuel López Obrador sidesteps Charlemagne). Our briefing describes how in the world’s largest entire branches of government, which have supposedly been democracy the Bharatiya Janata Party (bjp) under Narendra Modi captured by the elites, and appeals directly to his supporters in is capturing institutions, including the courts, the police and referendums. In India, when the electoral commission pursued now, it is feared, the election commission. The Economist Intel- bjp candidates less scrupulously than their opponents, one of ligence Unit (eiu), our sister organisation, has the three top commissioners objected—only to been compiling a democracy index since 2006. find his family investigated for tax evasion. Last year’s score was the worst ever. Covid-19 has America’s institutions are protected by the accelerated the decline. professionalism of its judges and officials. The threat is not from military coups but Many of them feel bound by standards laid governments in power. Given time, unscrupu- down by those who came before them. When Mr lous leaders can hollow out democracy com- Trump tried to subvert the election, he failed ab- pletely. Two decades ago Venezuela held mean- jectly because countless people did their duty. ingful elections; today it is about to eliminate As a result, the main harm identity politics the last kernel of opposition (see Americas section). But even in does to America comes through animosity and gridlock. Politics countries where such a calamity is unthinkable, the erosion of is supposed to resolve society’s conflicts, but democracy is gen- norms and institutions leads to worse government. To reverse erating them instead. Partly because tribes live in different infor- this, you have to understand what has gone wrong. mation universes, matters of fact like wearing masks and cli- Whether you support them or not, Mr Trump and his fellow mate change are transformed into disputes about people’s way of populists came to power as a response to the failings of demo- life. The result is that American politics has once again become cratic governments. In rich countries working-class voters came unresponsive. It fires people up so much that it obstructs the to believe that politicians did not care about them, after their liv- compromises needed for society to move forward. ing standards stagnated and they became worried about immi- gration. In central and eastern Europe governments seeking to Vote for change join the eu paid more heed to Brussels than their own voters. In Some warn that the discontent this creates will cause democra- developing countries corruption sent the message that the rul- cies to die—an outcome that its foes, championed by Vladimir ing classes were chiefly interested in their own bank accounts. Putin, have schemed to bring about. And yet, there are plenty of Enterprising politicians responded to these feelings by ele- reasons to hope. One of democracy’s strengths is that it promises vating identity far above policy so as to show voters that their lots of chances to start again. So long as elections take place, grievances matter. Such was the upheaval that some old parties there is always the possibility of kicking the rascals out even in were swept away—in France in 2017 they won just a quarter of the places where governments stack the vote. In the cities of Hunga- vote between them. Poland had thrived under a centrist govern- ry and Poland voters have begun to reject repression and crony- ment, but Law and Justice told voters that their Catholic values ism. In eu elections last year populists did worse than expected. were under attack from Brussels. In Brazil Jair Bolsonaro en- Perhaps the pendulum has already begun to swing. India is too dorsed voters’ contempt for the political class (see Bello). So re- vast and too diverse for a single party to rule on its own. lentless is Mr Trump’s focus on the identity of his base that he did Democracy is adaptable, too. In America’s election Republi- not even propose a programme for his second term. cans picked up Hispanic and black votes; and in Britain last year1 12 Leaders The Economist November 28th 2020

2 the governing Conservative Party won Labour seats in the Mid- and tyrants as much as Mr Trump has. And America could boost lands. That mixing is just what politics in both countries needs, democracy through power politics. If Mr Biden wants to create because it encourages parties on the left and right to break out of an alliance to help America keep ahead in the race against China their tribal redoubts and to tilt the balance of political effort for tech dominance, democracy will help define it. away from identity and back towards outcomes. Above all, democracy is something people strive for. Every Democracy is, for good or ill, also linked to the fortunes of the weekend Belarusians risk their liberty and their lives by taking to superpower that is most closely tied to it. America supports de- the streets to defy the dictator who refuses them the right to mocracy partly through example and advocacy. At home Mr Bi- choose who should govern them, just as Hong Kongers, Suda- den will attempt to restore norms such as the independence of nese and Thais have. It is an inspiration that voters everywhere the Justice Department. Abroad, he will not indulge autocrats should carry with them to the ballot box. 7

Covid-19’s corporate winners and losers What doesn’t kill you

Has the pandemic made incumbent firms stronger? s the prospect of a widely distributed vaccine draws This year will do grave damage to airlines’ balance-sheets—their Anearer—this week AstraZeneca and Oxford University an- total debt has reached half a trillion dollars. (British Airways is nounced results for their jab (see Science section)—bosses and literally selling off the family china to shore up its finances: half investors are turning one eye away from the immediate struggle a dozen first-class teacups can be yours for just over $30.) But of coping with the pandemic and looking instead at the longer- those that survive will find the skies less crowded. term competitive picture. Who has won and who has lost? Like Elsewhere there has been more digital disruption—but it is viruses, recessions usually come for the weakest first. Compa- the incumbents that have benefited. Advertising has shifted nies with sickly balance-sheets or frail margins quickly suc- even further online, where the duopoly of Facebook and Google cumb. As promising startups become crushed closedowns, it is rules. Likewise, much office-based work has moved to the home, often the incumbents that have the resources to wait it out. leading to empty office buildings and abandoned photocopiers. Yet the covid-19 recession has been sharper than normal, and The upshot of this disruption is that people are more reliant than more complicated. The world economy is expected to shrink by ever on big tech firms that provide cloud services. Though the over 4% this year, the deepest downturn since the second world pandemic will cause permanent change to all such industries, war, and there is still a risk of a double-dip recession (see leader). the dominant names in each will be familiar. Bail-outs, central-bank stimulus and forbearance by banks and Yet there is a third group of industries which have been dis- landlords have slowed the process of creative destruction and rupted in ways that threaten the incumbents. Live sport has cut the number of defaults. Social distancing is laying waste to more or less continued throughout the pandemic, as teams have some industries while boosting others, as peo- found ways to test or quarantine players. But the ple find new ways to do old things. absence of crowds has contributed to a plunge As a result the normal pattern in which pow- in tv viewership, the financial engine of the erful firms gain more clout is less emphatic than sports industry. Instead, people are tuning in you might expect—so far. Investors are strug- more often to highlights clips, betting sites and gling to get to grips with such an unusual out- other interactive ways of enjoying sport on so- look. This is partly why, although anticipated, cial apps, threatening the cable-tv firms. In ca- the news on vaccines in the past few weeks has tering, a growing appetite for delivery services caused gyrations in financial markets as fund such as DoorDash, whose revenues this year managers bet more heavily on firms they feared to touch just a have more than trebled, points to a future in which eating at few weeks ago. home becomes more common. Food retailers and restaurants What, then, is a good way to assess the winners and losers? In will have to adapt, or see their profits nibbled away. many businesses the incumbents will remain on top, because And what is the picture for the economy as whole? If you look their entire industry has proved immune to online disruption. at America’s stockmarket, the shares of the biggest companies by In other cases the incumbents will win—but because they have sales have outperformed this year—but only in 33 out of 59 in- mastered new digital innovations. Finally, in some parts of the dustries, and by a median margin of just two percentage points. economy where technological change seems to have been speed- In many areas the battle for supremacy is still raging. Thus, in e- ed up, the running is being done by new entrants. commerce Amazon’s sales have surged but it faces revived com- Live music is one industry that the pandemic has completely petition in the form of Walmart’s online operation and Shopify, a unplugged (see Business section). With concerts and festivals digital upstart. Covid-19 has brought with it economic damage banned, Live Nation, the largest concert organiser, has seen its on a vast scale. Yet the rapid changes that have been forced on sales fall by 95% compared with a year ago. Yet with no way to many industries are leading to innovation that will outlive the replicate a mosh-pit online, the industry is not being disrupted pandemic—and in some cases are leaving incumbents less so much as put in the deep freeze. As Live Nation’s buoyant share mighty than before. Consumers and trustbusters alike must price suggests, it can afford to wait until life returns to normal. hope that these newly competitive parts of the economy remain Many other industries, such as air travel, cannot move online. hotly contested long after the pandemic abates. 7 The Economist November 28th 2020 Leaders 13

Ethiopia Preventing war crimes

Africa and the world need to act now to stop the slaughter in Tigray irst, the police and militia shut the roads out of Mai Kadra, a ital, Addis Ababa. Tigrayans in the army have been disarmed or Ffarming town in Ethiopia’s northern province of Tigray. Then detained. Those in the civil service have been told not to come to they went from door to door, checking id cards and singling out work. Tigrayans trying to leave the country are turned back at the non-Tigrayans. They destroyed sim cards to stop people phoning airport. “This has the smell of Rwanda,” says a foreign diplomat. for help. Then, on November 9th, members of a Tigrayan youth Both sides passed up opportunities to reduce tensions before group stabbed, hacked, burned and strangled hundreds of Am- the first shots were fired by the tplf on November 4th. Now each hara men, according to the Ethiopian Human Rights Commis- appears to think it has the upper hand. Abiy seems to be trying to sion (ehrc). When federal government troops entered the town topple the tplf before Joe Biden takes charge in America. The the next morning at least 600 people were dead, says the ehrc. tplf’s leaders, many of whom are graduates of its guerrilla war Because of an internet and telephone blackout, as well as re- against a Marxist dictatorship in the 1970s and 1980s, seem to strictions on journalists and ngos, it is hard to be sure exactly think they can win concessions by fighting from the hills and what happened. But there is no doubt that a massacre occurred. dragging the war out. Both sides act as if they have more to gain Amnesty International has videos of bodies from killing than talking. strewn across the town. And it seems likely that Outsiders need to convince them otherwise. it was committed by forces allied to the Tigrayan First, the un and African Union (au) should People’s Liberation Front (tplf), the ruling party make it clear that those who commit war crimes in Tigray. It is also beyond doubt that federal will be held accountable. Independent investi- government forces or their allied ethnic militias gators should be allowed in to determine what have also committed atrocities in the same area. happened at Mai Kadra. Non-combatants must Tigrayans who have fled across the border to Su- be spared. Humanitarian corridors should be dan tell of attacks on civilians by Amhara mili- opened to allow aid to flow. tiamen and government soldiers. The government says under- If Ethiopia commits grave war crimes, the un and au should cover tplf agents are sowing disinformation. also impose an arms embargo. This would not stop the killing Ethiopia’s civil war is less than a month old, but its horrors are entirely—the region is awash with guns and machetes. But halt- multiplying fast. Government forces surround Mekelle, Tigray’s ing the flow of artillery shells and bombs would dampen it and capital. On November 21st Ethiopia’s army warned the city’s send a clear signal to both parties. 500,000 inhabitants that it would have “no mercy” and that they Donors should rethink their support for Ethiopia, which re- should “save themselves”. A day later Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s lies on aid. Western powers are hesitating for fear of being ac- prime minister, gave the tplf 72 hours to surrender. To treat an cused of neocolonialism. The au is reluctant to act because of its entire city and its people as a target would be a war crime. In a policy of not interfering in its members’ internal affairs. But if country as riven with ethnic tensions as Ethiopia, it could also nothing is done, Ethiopia will slide deeper into crisis. It could lead to wider bloodletting. Tigrayan civilians elsewhere are al- even break apart, like Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Good neighbours ready being singled out. Hundreds have been arrested in the cap- should apply pressure now to prevent such a catastrophe. 7

Fiscal stimulus The right kind of discipline

Fights about stimulus are breaking out everywhere. Time for rules-based budgeting conomic forecasters could be forgiven for feeling a sense Finance section). Janet Yellen, whom President-elect Joe Biden Eof whiplash. As covid-19 runs rampant in Europe and Amer- this week chose to be Mr Mnuchin’s successor, will be greeted by ica the world economy is taking another hit from the pandemic. a legal and political storm about the Fed’s lending authority. America’s consumers are gloomy; Europe’s service sector is con- Congress looks unlikely to agree to renew emergency spending tracting. At the same time the growing prospect of mass vaccina- on unemployment insurance and loans before Mr Biden takes tion in 2021raises the prospect of an imminent recovery. In 2020 office. In Europe Hungary and Poland are holding up the eu’s economists were too pessimistic about how fast growth would budget and its €750bn ($900bn) “recovery fund” in a spat over rebound after the first wave of infection, especially in America. A whether the disbursement of cash should be conditional on vaccine might allow another snapback in 2021. countries upholding the rule of law. The European Commission A springtime consensus that governments should spend big has warned several countries about their debts. Britain’s govern- on rescue packages has given way to bickering and confusion. In ment is trying to reconcile an instinctive suspicion of deficits America Steve Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, is bringing to an with a recognition that the economy still needs life support, in end some of the Federal Reserve’s emergency programmes (see part by cutting the foreign-aid budget (see Britain section). 1 14 Leaders The Economist November 28th 2020

2 Clear thinking is needed. It should start with the recognition in budgets than to risk slowing the recovery with premature aus- that public debts in rich countries, though soaring, are sustain- terity. Britain has chosen to wait. More countries should follow able because of rock-bottom interest rates. Despite borrowing the example of Australia and pledge not to tighten fiscal policy 19% of its gdp this year, Britain will save about £13bn ($17bn) on actively until the economy has crossed a defined threshold—in debt interest compared with last year. While rates are low, higher its case an unemployment rate of 6%. Much as clear “forward debt will not by itself demand belt-tightening after the crisis. guidance” by central banks helps monetary stimulus to work, A different problem will arise if the pandemic scars econo- fiscal rules would help boost confidence in the future. mies, reducing tax revenue and increasing welfare spending for Sadly, putting in place a new, formal, fiscal framework will be a long time. The result would be a persistent shortfall in the pub- hard in America, with its divided and gridlocked political sys- lic finances. Yet the extent of the pandemic’s lasting impact is tem. All the same, a pragmatic deal may be possible in the short highly uncertain owing to the novel nature of the crisis. The run—Democrats should accept the smaller stimulus on offer main driver of recent economic fluctuations has been govern- from the Republicans, rather than hold out for the enormous ment diktats about whether shops and restaurants can stay spending they would prefer. With the unemployed burning open, the impact of which baffles orthodox economic models. through their savings and small firms facing a bleak winter, the America’s unemployment rate undershot the Fed’s summer fore- speed of emergency support matters more than its size. cast by more than two percentage points within a matter of The consequences of any policy mistakes will be all the great- months. The scenarios presented by Britain’s official forecasters er today because low interest rates mean that central banks can- this week ranged from there being no enduring damage to a long- not easily ride to the rescue. Governments can afford to wait a lit- term hit to gdp of 6% a year. tle longer before tightening the purse-strings. And waiting is the It is better to wait to see how large a hole the pandemic leaves cautious and responsible choice. 7

Covid-19 and school exams Papers, please

Exams are grim, but most alternatives are worse round the world covid-19 has messed up children’s educa- efforts by encouraging them to tweak a few projects endlessly. Ation. They began to be shut out of classrooms all the way That leaves less time for other kinds of learning. back in February. Even in countries where schools have stayed The pandemic should not alter these judgments much. It is open, lessons and tests have been disrupted. Some countries true that officials in England, where important exams were can- pressed ahead with national exams (see International section) celled, would have found it easier to calculate which grades to this year. A few others, including Britain, France and Ireland, hand out if their system had allowed pupils to acquire some cancelled them all. They came up with new ways of awarding marks in advance of their final tests. But other places managed to grades instead. The fact that big exams have proved so vulnerable plough ahead with exams. Countries as diverse in their success to disruption has led to new questions about their usefulness. against covid-19 as China, Germany and Spain all held some kind Are there better ways of measuring what children have learned? of examination this year, even if they changed the format. Exams have plenty of problems. They are often unreliable; a In many countries the prospect—and pressure—of exams study in Israel found that test-takers’ performance can be affect- probably helped get pupils back into classrooms after initial ed by smog. Many children find them stressful. lockdowns came to an end. Those facing impor- Plenty of places run them badly. School-leavers tant tests were generally invited back to school in China are often set questions that require first. Their return helped give teachers and par- them to parrot propaganda. Poorly written test ents confidence that other pupils could safely papers in developing countries lead to wild join them. Kenya ended up letting exam-takers swings in pass rates. Countries, including Alge- return to school in October, even though it had ria and Ethiopia, have resorted to shutting down previously announced that it was cancelling all the internet at exam time to prevent cheating. classes until the end of 2020. Yet most of the world’s best-performing Some countries that called off exams this school systems retain some kind of high-stakes tests, and for year are still deciding whether and how to hold them in 2021. good reason. Other kinds of assessments are rarely better and Many pupils are still making do with remote learning. Wales says many are worse. If teachers are responsible for appraising their it will not hold any of the tests usually sat by 16- and 18-year-olds pupils’ work, they may reinforce their own biases. Studies have next year because disparities in the amount of face-to-face caught them giving lower grades to students from ethnic minor- teaching pupils are receiving would make formal exams unfair. ities or those who are fat. Grades in American high schools are Governments may need to tweak next year’s tests, as many inflating fast, in part because pushy middle-class parents insist did this year. That could mean cutting the amount of material to their little darlings deserve better. A glut of top marks makes it be tested. Exam boards may also have to boost the grades of pu- even harder for clever pupils from poor homes to stand out. pils who have spent the most time out of the classroom. But the Forgoing exams does not always alleviate pupils’ anxiety. most important exams should go ahead in some form. Many pu- Some would rather be tested at the end of their course than have pils have studied ferociously throughout this difficult year. They their work constantly assessed. Coursework can waste students’ should have the chance to earn the grades they deserve. 7 The Economist November 28th 2020 Leaders 15

Agriculture in Britain Ploughing its own furrow

Outside the eu, Britain can farm greener and better any of the claims made by Brexiteers have turned out to be were cancelled, those who could grabbed their boots and headed Mrubbish. Contrary to their assurances, Britain will not soon for the fields with the dog. be signing a trade deal with America. The border between Ireland British farmers are expected to produce not only skylarks and and Northern Ireland, which the Brexiteers said would not be a hawthorn, but increasingly to help with flood management and problem, turns out to be a big one. Britain will probably end up soaking up carbon dioxide, too. So it makes sense to pay them letting French and Spanish trawlers into its waters. But one of the something. Today they get £2.5bn ($3.3bn) a year simply for Brexiteers’ boasts is entirely right: Britain really ought to be able farming, and can apply for another £500m for worthy things like to come up with better agricultural policies outside the eu. planting hedgerows. One sum is too large, the other too small. If It can hardly do worse. The common agricultural policy (cap), farming subsidies were cut, along with the tax breaks on capital which Britain leaves on January 1st after 47 years, has been a gains, inheritance and fuel (outrageously, farmers pay very little lousy deal for the country. At considerable cost to the taxpayer, it duty on the “red diesel” they use) there would be money to spare. has subsidised intensive farming methods that have denuded There is already a system, albeit a stingy, bureaucratic one, for the countryside (see Britain section), causing more ecological paying farmers to take corners of their land out of production. damage than climate change. Since 1970 the population of nest- Leave 16 square metres of a field fallow, so a skylark could nest in ing farmland birds has been cut in half. Tariffs have raised the it, and you get £9. That is fine, but the taxpayer should also pay price of food. Some farmers have benefited from subsidies. But for wholesale changes, such as “rewilding” or small fields, which others have not, because the subsidies are capitalised into land research shows are more biodiverse than large ones. They are values, raising the cost of getting into farming. also more interesting for walkers, as anyone who has tramped Soon after the Brexit vote in 2016, ministers talked bravely across the breadbasket of eastern England can attest. about doing away with farming subsidies and paying for public Civil servants are now working on a new English schedule of goods. Yet England has moved as slowly as a ruminating cow. payments for green activities, which are supposed to be intro- With just five weeks left in the cap, and some subsidy cuts begin- duced in 2024. That is the wrong approach, in a couple of ways. ning soon after, it has provided few details about what will re- Because different parts of the country would benefit from differ- place them. Northern Ireland, Scotland and ent things (more hedgerows in East Anglia, bet- Wales are even tardier. They will stick with the ter stone walls in the Yorkshire Dales) local au- old subsidy system for the next few years. thorities, not central government, should set For almost half a century Britain has barely the priorities and distribute some of the money. had to think about creating policies for 70% of It would be better still if reverse auctions were its land area. Now, amid a pandemic and Brexit, used. At the moment, officials must guess the it is confronted with fundamental questions. price that will induce enough farmers to plant Should the country subsidise farming? How hedges or set aside land for butterflies. Amer- should it help the environment? What should it ica’s Department of Agriculture asks them to do about food imports? All these questions are made trickier by bid, then takes the best offers. That reveals the true cost. the deeply peculiar way in which Britons think about the land. Britain must also deal with the vexed issue of food imports. There are good arguments for abolishing all public support Farmers’ organisations argue that the country should not import and leaving farming to the market. The original rationale for foods that are harder on the environment or on animals than farm payments—to boost domestic food production—has not would be allowed under domestic rules. An impressive co- made sense for decades. Countries like Britain are secure be- alition, ranging from celebrity chefs to shepherds, backs the cause they are wealthy and because international supply chains campaign, which raises the spectres of American chlorine- work, not because they grow lots of food. And subsidies are a washed chicken and hormone-treated beef. Most Britons agree. crutch for indifferent farmers. After New Zealand did away with its subsidies in the 1980s, some farms went bust. Fewer than had The grass below—above the vaulted sky been feared, though—and the survivors became technologically The government is refusing to be so bound—a deeply unpopular sophisticated and export-oriented. decision that is nonetheless correct. In practice, it will remain Britain is not quite like New Zealand, for reasons that go to the tied to eu food standards because of the overriding importance heart of Britons’ odd relationship with the countryside. In New of trade with the bloc. It should not restrict its freedom any more Zealand, and also in America, people distinguish between farm- than that. To insist that imports meet domestic standards ig- ing and nature. Farmland is something that you might travel nores the fact that other countries have different climates and through in order to get somewhere pretty. Britons expect their pests, so need different tools. East African countries have spent agricultural land to be beautiful. Even national parks like Dart- the past year fighting locust swarms with some insecticides that moor and the Lake District are mostly farmed. English nature po- are banned in Britain—but then, Britain has no locusts. If Britons etry is stuffed with shepherds, wheatfields and skylarks, John care about farming methods in other countries, let them show it Clare’s “sweet minstrel of the farm and plough”. Rambling along by their purchases, as they have shown that they prefer free- farmland footpaths is important to many Britons, and has been range eggs. The government, meanwhile, should start repairing especially so during the pandemic. When other entertainments half a century’s-worth of damage to the countryside. 7 16 Letters The Economist November 28th 2020

“ethical” views, instead of lish pamphlets, organise peti- entrants. The results have been Work incentives bringing the country and tions and even start their own promising. Although there was a carrot for Europe forward. Sadly, Richard social-media platforms. The median age of new people who got tested for von Weizsäcker’s assessment trevor schindeler hawkers since 2013 is 46, much covid-19 in Slovakia’s mass- of Helmut Kohl’s turn to a North Bay, Canada lower than the national medi- testing programme, there was a self-centred policy focus was an. Many young enterprising strong stick, too (“Scouse made substantial throughout The distinction between free hawkers have gone beyond lessons”, November 21st). The the Merkel years. speech and free publication is selling traditional fare to offer carrot for those who got tested It is time for Mrs Merkel to that I am free to write offensive Western and other fusion and proved negative was access step down now. New and bold screeds. I am free to post them foods. We expect the median to freedoms and exemptions leadership is needed to provide off to editors and publishers. age to decrease further. from an otherwise strict cur- answers and solutions to how They, however, are under no These efforts will sustain few. But employees who did Germany will earn its living in obligation to print my the trade, and keep Singapore’s not take part in the nationwide the near future and how it will diatribes. Neither is Facebook hawker culture flourishing for test had to self-isolate, in play a geostrategic role. A lot is or Twitter. future generations. effect, and could not go to at stake. adam isler t.k. lim work. If they weren’t able to johannes warbeck New York High Commissioner of provide any other certificate of Augsburg, Germany Singapore a negative test to their employ- London er they had to stay at home and Handle with care take annual or unpaid leave. Women and the vote I was perplexed by your refusal However, if they took part and Banyan gave New Zealand the to concede that the Travelling Train of thought tested positive they could honour of being the “the first Wilburys featured more than It came as no surprise to learn claim sick leave, but still had to place in the world to give wom- just George Harrison and Bob in Bartleby’s column on self-isolate with their whole en the vote” (November 7th). Dylan (“Greenbacks for green- psychometric testing that household. That was in1893. In1869 the ery”, October 31st). Were Jeff introverts make the best train This carrot-and-stick American territory of Wyo- Lynne, Roy Orbison and Tom drivers (November 7th). I drive approach led to a 95% turnout ming gave women the vote, as Petty not even worthy of an trains on urban passenger for the nationwide test, help- did the territory of Utah in “among others” after mention- lines and cherish my autono- ing Slovakia halve its covid-19 1870, if only for a few years. ing a former Beatle and a Nobel mous mobile “office”, with no prevalence in just a week. In what is now Canada laureate? one to report to (unless some- kristina londakova some women voted as early as andrew gush thing happens to passengers, London 1793, not because British com- Chicago the train or track infrastruc- mon law said they could, but ture). My breaks between because it didn’t say they could journeys are spent reading The Veering to the left not. Canadian legislatures Singapore’s food hawkers Economist, in addition to other I strongly disagree that Ger- closed that loophole but in1873 Food-hawker centres are literary material carried in a many’s Christian Democratic female property owners in Singapore’s community dining tote bag. The best times to Union is a “centre-right” party British Columbia got the right rooms and offer affordable catch up with unread back (“The long farewell”, October to vote in municipal elections. diverse food (“Out with the issues are the unforeseen 31st). This might have been true cec jennings new”, October 31st). Indeed, delays, which can last hours. in the early years of the Merkel Toronto Singaporeans have such I’d rather have The Economist era. Nowadays, however, both passion for the food that we keep me company on the train the cdu and the Christian have nominated hawker than a fellow human being. Social Union in Bavaria have Talk all you want culture to be included as a eugene anthony lost any kind of sustainable Much of the discussion regard- unesco Intangible Cultural Perth, Australia trait of conservatism. ing social media and free Heritage. unesco’s evaluation The euro has been turned speech does not distinguish body has recently recommend- into a political football, between the freedom of speech ed the inscription. Bitcoin’s new romantics immigration laws and regu- and the right to be heard (“The Our hawker centres were At the risk of being as out of lations are a mess, defence, great clean-up”, October 24th). first built in the 1970s, provid- place as jeans and a t-shirt at national security and other Freedom of speech is protect- ing street hawkers with more the Blitz club in London on a areas that are of importance to ed, but the right to be heard is hygienic settings. We ceased Tuesday night I feel that But- conservatives are in disarray. not. Speakers were never building new centres in 1985 tonwood left the main ques- nato and the wider European guaranteed a platform for their and resumed in 2012. This tion unanswered: did Steve alliance are in bits. Even worse, views until social media came partly explains the low rents of Strange have any bitcoin? a radicalised party, which along. Now everyone has a older-generation hawkers and (“Blitz-coin”, October 31st.) evolved from a liberal-minded chance to be heard. the high median age of those stuart smith down-to-earth opposition to But denying access to anti- working in the centres. The Maastricht, Netherlands Angela Merkel, has managed to vaxxers, say, would in no way government began offering establish itself permanently limit their right to free speech. training programmes in 2013 to across the country. They would still have all the attract new hawkers to the Letters are welcome and should be The conservative parties freedom of speech they en- trade, along with significantly addressed to the Editor at The Economist, The Adelphi Building, have turned into rather leftish joyed before Facebook was subsidised fees and stall 1-11John Adam Street, London WC2N 6HT marketing professionals. Their created. They can talk to their rentals. The operators of new Email: [email protected] primary goal is to conserve neighbours, write letters, call hawker centres also run More letters are available at: power and to celebrate people on the telephone, pub- programmes to support new Economist.com/letters Executive focus 17

President of the Community Plant Variety Offi ce (CPVO) Angers, France. Vacancy: European Union senior management position Temporary Agent Grade AD14 - COM/2020/1037

The Community Plant Variety Offi ce (CPVO) is an independent EU Agency, established by Council Regulation (EC) No 2100/94 (1) on 27 July 1994. The CPVO is responsible for the management of the Community Plant Variety Rights System which provides protection with an intellectual property right for new plant varieties in the European Union. It has around 50 staff members and a budget of approximately EUR 20 million yearly, fi nanced mainly by the proceeds of the various fees it levies. Further information can be found at: www.cpvo.europa.eu

The post of President of the CPVO will be available as of 1 September 2021 for an initial mandate of 5 years, with a possible extension of 5 additional years. The place of employment is Angers (France) where the CPVO is based. The President represents the CPVO and is responsible for its management. The ideal candidate should be an outstanding professional with solid leadership and communication skills, and very good knowledge of matters relating to plant variety rights. Candidates must be citizens of one of the Member States of the European Union and possess at least 15 years professional experience among which 5 years at senior management level in the area of activities of the Offi ce. The President of the CPVO will be appointed by the Council of the European Union on the basis of a shortlist provided by the European Commission. Eligibility criteria and instructions for fi ling an application are detailed in the vacancy notice available in the Offi cial Journal of the European Union C 379 A of 10 November 2020. The closing date for registrations is 10 December 2020, 12:00 noon Brussels time. Register at: https://ec.europa.eu/dgs/human-resources/seniormanagementvacancies/ 18 Briefing Democracy in India The Economist November 28th 2020

topmost judges ignored the court’s backlog Subcontinental drift of some 60,000 cases to schedule a bail hearing within a day of the anchor’s appeal. This is in a country where prisons hold twice as many inmates awaiting trial, some 330,000 people, as they do convicts. A majority of these “undertrials” come from minority groups and a quarter have DELHI spent more than a year behind bars, reck- A power-hungry prime minister threatens to turn India into a one-party state ons Leah Verghese, a law researcher. When n early november justices at India’s Su- Cultural Revolution. Its victims are often Mr Modi clamped direct rule on the erst- Ipreme Court turned their attention to an critics of government policy. They are typi- while state of Jammu and Kashmir in Au- urgent plea. Arnab Goswami, a prominent cally reduced to a corner box as Mr Gos- gust last year, thousands of its residents journalist, had been dragged from his wami swells into a finger-jabbing prosecu- were detained. Out of more than 550 writs home and hurled into jail. Government tor, denouncing them as “antinational” or, of habeas corpus such as Mr Goswami’s ministers decried the arrest as an assault worse, an agent of Pakistan. that Kashmiris filed, courts have disdained on free speech, demanding that Mr Gos- What landed Mr Goswami in jail was not to look at all but a handful. wami be granted bail. The hearing was something he said, though his tirades In the same week that Mr Goswami won brief. “If we as a constitutional court do not against the Mumbai police have indeed en- his swift reprieve, Father Stan Swamy, an lay down law and protect liberty, then who raged the local government, which hap- 83-year-old Jesuit priest who has champi- will?” proclaimed one judge. That evening pens to be opposed to the prime minister, oned rights for tribal peoples and is being Mr Goswami swept out of Mumbai’s Taloja Narendra Modi, and his Bharatiya Janata held as an alleged Maoist terrorist, made a prison into a rapturous crowd. “This is a Party (bjp). The journalist’s alleged crime plea before a lower court. As he suffers victory for the people of India!” he crowed. involved a big unpaid debt to a decorator, from Parkinson’s disease and cannot hold a But was it? To much of India’s commen- who had left a suicide note blaming him, cup steady, lawyers requested that he be al- tariat, Mr Goswami’s case represented not a among others, for his fatal distress. “Abet- lowed to have a straw in his prison cell. The test of freedom so much as a test of power. ment” to suicide remains an offence in In- court postponed the hearing for 20 days. On its current trajectory, by all evidence (as dia. The case had been closed in 2019, when Even more striking is the courts’ foot- the chart on the next page illustrates), the the bjp still wielded power in Mumbai, and dragging over constitutional questions. In world’s largest democracy is headed to a fu- its reopening smacked of a vendetta. 2017 Mr Modi slipped through parliament a ture that is less, not more free. So the court’s ruling was not surprising. controversial law that created “electoral Mr Goswami is a controversial figure. What shocked was the speed of its inter- bonds”, asserting that as a budgetary mat- He has pioneered a style of attack journal- vention. Mr Goswami spent just a week in ter it need not be scrutinised by the upper ism that makes his nightly television pro- detention, and his case had hardly reached house, which was not then in bjp control. gramme look like a show trial from China’s the lowest rung of courts, yet the country’s The Supreme Court still has not examined 1 The Economist November 28th 2020 Briefing Democracy in India 19

2 the constitutionality of this innovation, Muslim. Yet Delhi’s finest have declined to 11-person commission, the government in which allows unlimited, anonymous do- register complaints against bjp members October tapped a journalist whose chief nations to political parties. Other big ques- for incitement. Their investigations have works are two books that glowingly laud tions its judges have yet to take up include focused on a purported Islamist-Marxist the “Modi model” of government. the imposition last year of direct rule on conspiracy to foment unrest in order to Such appointments are a prerogative of Kashmir and some 140 legal petitions embarrass Mr Modi at a time when he was the executive, one that previous leaders against the Citizenship Amendment Act of hosting President Donald Trump. have scarcely been shy of exercising. More 2019, which by inserting religion as a crite- An amendment made last year to the unusual under Mr Modi has been his al- rion for citizenship undermines the secu- Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (uapa), most axiomatic choice of candidates with lar nature of the Indian state. a draconian law from 1967 that allows the Hindu-nationalist credentials, often from state to label and then ban groups as ter- his home state of Gujarat, and his insis- Sleepwalking into authoritarianism? rorist, now empowers the government to tence on inserting loyalists even into insti- Slow, uneven and arbitrary justice are not designate any individual as a terrorist. The tutions that had been seen as sanctuaries new to India. Yet its courts have often tried state may hold suspects indefinitely with from party politics. Twice Mr Modi has re- to check executive power. It was a judge’s no right of bail, confiscate their property placed heads of the Reserve Bank of India, ruling that Indira Gandhi, perhaps India’s and implicate any associate as an accessory the country’s respected central bank, after most powerful prime minister, had cheat- to terrorism. During India’s harsh lock- they expressed less than fulsome praise of ed in an election that prompted her in 1975 down to combat covid-19 last spring, police his economic policies. As India’s latest to plunge India into a 21-month Emergen- in Delhi quietly rounded up scores of comptroller and auditor-general (cag), Mr cy, during which she threw opponents in youths alleged to have been involved in the Modi reportedly passed over seven senior jail and ruled by decree. Legal profession- riots, and charged many under the uapa. secretaries from within the organisation als now liken the current moment to that Having enjoyed a stranglehold on the and instead parachuted in a retired official darkest period for Indian democracy. “This Lok Sabha, parliament’s lower house, for from Gujarat. The cag has a record of hon- government has done so much damage to six years, and more recently acquired con- est and incisive reporting, but has raised personal liberty,” says Ajit Prakash Shah, a trol of the upper Rajya Sabha, Mr Modi’s hackles by exposing government waste. former high-court judge. “But the courts, government has passed a slew of other laws especially the Supreme Court, have not only to expand its powers, but to dilute Modi operandi watched this indiscriminate and violent those of potential challengers. One thorn In 2016 Mr Modi similarly ignored institu- trampling of dissent like mute spectators.” in its side has been a law from 2005 that up- tional precedent in the Indian army, lifting It is not only the courts, alas, that seem holds citizens’ right to obtain information General Bipin Rawat over the heads of two eager to stay in step with the government. (rti) from state officials. Seen as a big ad- senior officers to appoint him its top com- Many cogs in India’s institutional machin- vance for transparency in a country where mander. Last year, following a change of ery are not merely complacent, but have mandarins remained aloof and unchal- rules that stretched the retirement age, grown complicit in a project that threatens lenged, the law created an independent General Rawat was promoted to chief of to turn the country into a one-party state. commission to ensure that requests from staff of India’s combined forces. The army At least during the Emergency the threat the public receive a response. The number maintains a tradition of keeping a distance was clear, says Tarunabh Khaitan, vice- of requests runs at over 1m a year. from politics that makes it almost unique dean of law at Oxford University and au- In 2019 the government amended the in its region, but observers have detected a thor of a paper, “Killing a Constitution with rti law. It reduced the tenure and prestige growing tendency for officers to weigh in a Thousand Cuts”, that details India’s insti- of the role of the commission’s chief. Small publicly on civilian matters, and retired tutional decay. “What we have now is a wolf wonder that the commission is rejecting a soldiers whisper reproach against officers in sheep’s clothing,” he says. “There is no growing number of information requests for “cosying up” to politicians. full-frontal big-ticket attack on democracy, from the public, citing “insufficient docu- Mr Modi has made a spectacle of his but there are multiple, simultaneous at- mentation”, even as the number of pending own commander-in-chief role as no other tacks on all fronts…We are sleepwalking requests has swollen by 50%. Having fre- recent prime minister, and also minted into authoritarianism.” quently neglected to fill empty seats on the electoral gold from pre-election military 1 Of the ostensibly independent institu- tions that are now compliant, India’s police stand out. Despite individually humane Troubling trends and honest officers, the impression Indi- India, selected indicators of democracy ans hold of the force is that its main pur- 1.0 pose is to protect the powerful and perse- India gains independence “The Emergency” Modi comes to power from Britain ↑ More cute the weak. A case in point is the Delhi Freedom-of-expression index democratic police’s management of communal riots 0.8 that racked parts of India’s capital for three days last winter, leaving 53 dead. 0.6 Top officers in the force, which before Rule-of-law index Mr Modi’s government stopped releasing Civil-liberties index Academic-freedom index 0.4 statistics comprised just 2% Muslims in a city with a 13% Muslim minority, had been filmed standing next to a bjp politician at a 0.2 rally where he threatened to attack protes- ↓ Less democratic ters, mostly Muslims, holding a peaceful 0 sit-in against the new citizenship law. Dur- 191510052000959085807570656055501945 ing the violence, police were filmed throw- Ruling party ing rocks and torturing captured Muslim Congress Other BJP youths. More than two-thirds of those Source: V-Dem Institute beaten, shot and hacked to death were 20 Briefing Democracy in India The Economist November 28th 2020

“Our democracy is flawed, but it is a work in of the bjp’s capacity to “persuade” defec- Party lines progress, not just about the people who are tors to its side. This recently happened in Development of ruling parties in increasingly currently in power.” Modi apologists point Madhya Pradesh, where Mr Modi’s party autocratic countries to disturbing trends in states that are not unceremoniously unseated Congress after Illiberalism ruled by the bjp. Kerala recently introduced luring away a chunk of its deputies. 1.0 a law to punish “offensive” speech by up to By leaning on the big conglomerates 2015 2018 2019 three years in prison (but withdrew it after that dominate the mainstream media, by 2019 0.8 heavy criticism). In Odisha, a family with favouring outlets that share its ideology, Fidesz bjp Hungary connections to the that owns a televi- such as Mr Goswami’s, and by flooding so- 0.6 sion channel critical of the local ruling cial media with agitprop, the bjp has large- BJP party has found itself buried in lawsuits. ly marginalised critical voices in the press. 2007 India 0.4 Indian politics is a game of hardball. In the past two months, new rules have cur- 1984 The bjp is the world’s largest political tailed the permitted level of foreign invest- PiS AKP Poland Turkey 0.2 machine, with many multiples the energy, ment in online media and placed the entire 2002 organisational strength and financial sector under the authority of the broad- 1990 backing of its rivals. It has a strong leader in casting ministry. The moves appear to be 0 Mr Modi, and a strong narrative, however aimed at getting a grip on one of the main 3.53.02.52.0 5.04.54.0 unpalatable it is to many. This contrasts remaining outlets for dissent, say editors Economic left-right* sharply with the vacillation of Congress, at three of India’s increasingly popular Sources: Juraj Medzihorsky; *On scale from 0-6 where India’s previous dominant party. Led by a news sites. One that specialised in hard- V-Dem Institute 0=far left and 6=far right fading Gandhi dynasty, it has slowly disin- hitting investigative stories, HuffPost In- tegrated. Ghulam Nabi Azad, one of 23 Con- dia, closed on November 24th. 2 operations. Helpfully, India’s soldiers have gress leaders who recently petitioned So- Compliance regulations regarding for- remained silent at useful moments, too. As nia Gandhi, the party president, for eign donations have already been used to independent satellite evidence emerged sweeping changes, says its leadership has shut down tens of thousands of ngos. The this summer showing that Chinese forces lost connection with people on the ground. most recent example is the local chapter of had occupied strategic posts in territory Its organisational structure has “col- Amnesty International, an advocacy group claimed by India along remote sections of lapsed”. Indians who loathe Mr Modi are of- for human rights. In September the gov- the countries’ border, the army steadfastly ten just as disparaging of Rahul Gandhi, the ernment added onerous filing require- refused to comment on Indian govern- party’s mediocre current figurehead. ments and rules that forbid larger charities ment assertions that no land had been lost. from funding smaller ones. Even the impartiality of the Election Grand designs in Delhi Mr Khaitan, the Oxford law professor, is Commission of India (eci), with a sterling In the absence of a strong opposition at the not alone in warning that the bjp’s one-sid- seven-decade record of managing the centre, the most effective resistance to the ed advantage is subtly changing the nature mammoth logistics of Indian votes, has bjp’s dominance lies in state capitals, as of India’s game. “We do not have a level come under scrutiny. During the 2019 gen- well in the press and more broadly in civil playing field any more,” he says. “What we eral election, which Mr Modi won by a society. These bastions are all under heavy are getting is not quite a one-party state, landslide, his opponents sharply protested assault. Mr Modi’s fearsome chief lieuten- but certainly a hegemonic state.” The tra- when the prime minister and other top bjp ant, Amit Shah, the home minister, has jectory resembles that in other democra- leaders repeatedly escaped serious censure made no secret of his determination to top- cies, such as Hungary, Poland and Turkey, for issuing what amounted to communal ple Mamata Banerjee, a staunch and often where autocracy is on the rise (see chart). dog whistles, whereas the eci promptly vitriolic critic who has run the pivotal state Mr Modi is now taking a keen interest in sanctioned rival candidates for lesser in- of West Bengal since 2011, in state elections reshaping Delhi, India’s capital, in more fractions of its strict codes of conduct. One next year. Opposition parties holding slim imperial fashion. Following an opaque and of the body’s three top commissioners did majorities in other big states, including Ra- hasty process that to no surprise ended object, but was overruled. His family sub- jasthan and Maharashtra, are acutely aware with the choice of Mr Modi’s own favourite sequently found itself being investigated architect, a fellow Gujarati, as chief design- for alleged tax evasion. The official quit the er, the city’s Central Vista, a 3km-long ave- eci before the end of his term. nue of lawns not unlike the National Mall Given that India continues to run elec- in Washington, is going under the knife. It tions that by most standards are admirably will be flanked by ten giant, identical gov- free and fair, it may seem churlish to voice ernment office buildings. The project fore- fears for its democracy. After all, even as sees the building of a new, expanded par- America’s presidential count was mired in liament, big enough to seat double the 545 controversy in early November, election mps that currently sit in the lower house. officials in Bihar—India’s poorest state, The old building will become a “Museum of with a population of 125m—managed to Democracy”. And, naturally, there will be a count the votes without a hitch in less than bigger, fancier residence and office for the a day. Like so many others in recent years, prime minister himself. that election was won fair and square by Mr Another sign of Mr Modi’s direction of Modi’s team, in Bihar’s case in alliance with travel can be detected in the differing a local party. “read-outs” after his congratulatory phone The bjp’s supporters scoff at the notion call to President-elect Joe Biden. Among that its rise under Mr Modi has entailed any the things that Mr Biden’s team said the subversion of institutions or dilution of two had discussed was a shared commit- democracy. Such protests are merely sour ment to “strengthening democracy, at grapes, insists Raghavan Jagannathan, edi- home and abroad”. In the version from Mr tor of Swarajya, a right-wing magazine. Modi’s office, that bit was left out. 7 United States The Economist November 28th 2020 21

The covid-19 vaccines quantities have already been made. Each firm expects to have about 20m doses ready Grabbing a cold one to distribute in America by the end of this year. This amount is roughly what would be needed to inoculate all America’s health-care workers, who are a priority group for the first vaccine supplies. Next will come groups particularly vul- America is about to roll out a covid-19 vaccine. Here is how the federal nerable to the disease, including essential government and states plan to do it workers at high risk of infection (such as sked what keeps her up at night as ca’s runaway epidemic until next spring, at police officers, teachers and bus drivers), ATexas prepares for the arrival of the best. But America is leading the way on co- care-home residents, people with high- first covid-19 vaccines, Imelda Garcia from vid-19 vaccination—so lessons from its ear- risk medical conditions and those over 65. the state’s health department singles out ly experience will be closely watched in Eu- The order of priority between these groups, two opposite scenarios: either a serious rope and other parts of the world. which are suggested by the Centres for Dis- shortage of vaccine, or lots of it sitting Organising America’s supplies of co- ease Control and Prevention (cdc) and oth- around unused because nobody wants to vid-19 vaccines is the task of Operation er national health agencies, may vary take it. These two worries are on the minds Warp Speed, a programme set up by the somewhat from state to state. The current of many other public-health experts as current administration in May. It pre-pur- plan is that vaccine supplies, as they be- 6.4m doses of vaccine stand ready to be dis- chased 100m doses of both Pfizer’s and Mo- come available, will be divvied up among patched across America, on a nod by the derna’s vaccines this summer, and large states and six big metropolitan areas pro- Food and Drug Administration (fda), the portionately to their population. Each state federal drug regulator. will decide how to distribute them. At the That nod is expected on December 10th Also in this section current pace of vaccine production, wide- or shortly after, when the fda will make a spread vaccination of the elderly is not on 22 The virus and the heartland decision on the first covid-19 vaccine sub- the cards until February. mitted for approval in America, a jab devel- 23 Team Biden and the transition The logistics of vaccinating more than oped by the drug firms Pfizer and Bion- 300m Americans would be daunting with 24 Gender wars Tech. Moderna, the developer of another any vaccine. But Pfizer’s will be “extremely vaccine, is expected to undergo fda review 25 Obscure laws challenging”, says Claire Hannan of the As- on December 17th. Both vaccines are about sociation of Immunisation Managers. “It’s 26 Lexington: The end of the 95% effective if administered in a two-dose nothing like we’ve seen before,” she says. embarrassment regimen. They are unlikely to stem Ameri- The vaccine must be stored at -70°C, which 1 22 United States The Economist November 28th 2020

2 is the temperature in ultra-freezers rarely surgeries. The federal government is set- dia campaigns to encourage people to get found outside research laboratories and ting up a fund to cover providers’ fees for vaccinated will be important. big medical centres. To deal with that, the jab for the uninsured; health plans will All this will throw up unfamiliar chal- Pfizer will be distributing the vaccine in cover this fee for their members. lenges. Unlike many other countries, “thermal shippers”, special containers Many immunisation experts worry that America has a more “passive” approach to packed with dry ice designed to hold be- this “build it and they will come” approach vaccination and is not used to doing big tween about 1,000 and 5,000 doses. (It is is naive. At the moment, surveys suggest immunisation campaigns, says Tom Ken- now designing a smaller version to make that anywhere between 20% and 60% of yon from Project hope, a health non-profit, distribution easier.) But the dry ice must be Americans may not accept a covid-19 vac- who used to lead the cdc’s global health replenished regularly, the container can be cine. In one survey only a third of nurses programme. This works for childhood vac- opened only twice a day and, once taken said they would voluntarily get vaccinated. cination. But covid-19 is different. Lots of out, the vaccine lasts in a regular fridge for Some people are worried that the vaccines mini vaccination drives to cover specific only five days. When ready to administer, it may not be safe, suspicious that corners groups, such as frontline workers, will be must be diluted with saline, which is also may have been cut in the rush to develop crucial, says Dr Kenyon. not a common step for vaccines. them so quickly. Others have seen various This sort of groundwork, training and People handling the Pfizer vaccine will kinds of alarming misinformation. Mud- campaigning is expensive. The Association need extensive training, says Ms Hannan. dled messages from various political lead- of Immunisation Managers estimates that, “This isn’t something where you can watch ers have also done their share of harm. all told, state and local authorities will the video and then you are ready to go.” She All vaccinators, therefore, must be well need $8.4bn. The cdc has put the total at worries that these new procedures will trained to answer people’s questions about around $6bn. So far, however, states have come at a time when hospitals and their the risks and benefits of the vaccine, poten- received only $200m for vaccination prep- staff are overwhelmed and exhausted by tial side effects, the longevity of protection aration, and a promise of another $140m the flood of patients (see next story). Be- and so on. But such training has not yet this year. Approval of a big federal pot of cause of all the intricacies involved, a fair started, partly because this sort of box-in- money for this has been caught up in the amount of the first supplies of Pfizer’s vac- sert information will be published official- political wrangling in Washington. The cine may end up being spoilt. ly as part of fda’s decision on the vaccine. Moderna vaccine, developed with Ameri- Moderna’s vaccine is more in line with In some places, such as Washington, dc, ca’s National Institutes of Health, is a tri- what vaccinators are already used to. It health departments have started talking to umph of American science. Failing to vac- must be stored at -20°C, the temperature of community leaders to get a sense of the cinate enough people to stop the virus standard pharmacy freezers, keeps in a reg- particular concerns of various groups. Me- would be a failure of American politics. 7 ular fridge for 30 days, comes in packs of 100 doses and does not need dilution. This vaccine, if approved, would be delivered by The virus and the heartland McKesson, a medical distributor that al- ready delivers vaccines nationally. View from the ICU Wherever the vaccines arrive, supplies to do the jabs must turn up at the same time. These will be distributed by McKes- son in pre-assembled packs of the sy- ringes, alcohol wipes, gloves and other items needed for each covid-19 jab. Opera- CHICAGO Covid-19 is killing over 550 Midwesterners every day tion Warp Speed has been stockpiling these through the summer—to avoid a repeat of e as physicians struggle to con- to 12 hours, then you have to wait,” he says. the fiasco with personal protective equip- “Wceive of the idea of exponential Iowa’s hospital system is not over- ment for health workers in the spring, growth,” says Dan Runde, of the emergency whelmed, but it could be soon, just as when state and federal authorities were medicine department at University of Iowa wards are rapidly filling in Ohio and Penn- competing with each other in a mad scram- Hospitals and Clinics, in Iowa City. sylvania. “I’m very concerned, bordering ble for scarce global supplies. “There’s so short a window. You go from on terrified,” says the doctor. He worries At present, states and the Department of barely handling things, to not at all. It’s so that members of the public, and governing Defence, which is leading the logistics of fast.” He recalls how Iowa had some 700 pa- politicians, don’t grasp what happens 1 vaccine distribution, are focused on pre- tients in hospital infected with covid-19 at paring for Pfizer’s vaccine. State authorities the start of November. A few weeks later, he have been enrolling vaccination providers, says, that tally had doubled. At times al- On-ramp drawing up lists of health workers and oth- most every icu bed is filled. US, covid-19, daily cases per million people ers who need to be vaccinated first, and set- His hospital, like others, tried preparing 2020, Seven-day moving average ting up systems to keep track of vaccines. for such a surge. In-patients, where possi- 1,000 They have just started doing “dry runs”, ble, were sent home; a dozen new icu beds placing vaccine and syringe orders into the were added; some elective surgeries were 800 national system and practising what they postponed. Then staff watched in alarm as Midwest will be doing with Pfizer’s thermal shippers nearly one in every two covid-19 tests run 600 (which, for now, arrive with empty vials). in Iowa turned out positive, foretelling a The logistics of moving vaccines surge in hospitalisation—and deaths. His West 400 around will be complicated. The really hospital, the state’s best-equipped, takes in Northeast South 200 hard part, though, will probably be con- patients from far and wide when others vincing people to take them. America’s can’t cope. That already means an “aggres- 0 plan is to make vaccination available free at sive triage process”. “We’re already getting Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov all the usual places where people get their to the line to be full. We have to start saying Source: COVID Tracking Project flu shots, such as pharmacies and doctors’ no. If you’re not going to die in the next six The Economist November 28th 2020 United States 23

islators have long refused to shut bars or restaurants, order statewide mask-wearing or ban mass-gatherings—such as the Stur- gis bike rally in South Dakota. All that helped to spread the virus. Since the election a few, belatedly, have changed their tune. Kim Reynolds, Iowa’s governor, at last issued a statewide mask mandate, after months of scorning the idea. North Dakota’s governor, Doug Bur- gum, has done the same, also this month. Some cities, such as Sioux Falls and Oma- ha, do require masks, but in rural areas de- nial of the virus and rejection of mitigation efforts are both common. Figures from recent days suggest infec- tions may have fallen off from record highs in some states. But no one is cheering in the emergency wards. Health workers fear that Thanksgiving gatherings will prove to be superspreader moments. Ignoring pleas from public-health officials to stay home, Waving and drowning many millions of Americans have flown and driven to family celebrations in the 2 when hospitals overfill. Not only covid-19 find a bed. As bigger hospitals in cities fill, past few days. Meanwhile many college patients suffer; disruptions also threaten less-sick patients are pushed back to small- students have just gone home for the year. care for those afflicted by cancer, heart dis- er rural ones. In Sioux Falls another 1,000 Dr Runde and the others all say that por- ease, car accidents and more. Rates of ex- patients, including 100 on supplemental tends predictably grim results to come. “It cess, non-virus deaths could surge. Across oxygen, are monitored in their homes. is like slow-motion horror. We’re just Iowa, 80% of icu beds are now occupied. In Shuttling patients around is not ideal. standing there and being run over.” 7 North Dakota it is over 90%. Frontline staff have learned better ways Smaller hospitals suffer the greatest to treat patients, so mortality is not soaring strain—not least because 130 rural ones along with infections. Kurt Chamberlain, Team Biden closed across America in the past decade, an emergency doctor in eastern Iowa, says putting pressure on those that remain. Ben his hospital, St Lukes near Cedar Rapids, In transit Christians, an emergency-care doctor at has 76 patients, far more than before: “We one in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, says it has couldn’t have handled that in May.” Every- just experienced by far “the worst month” one knows, for example, that they must of the entire pandemic, eclipsing the out- avoid putting patients (except the most break in the spring. For the past two desperate) on ventilators. Dr Christians es- WASHINGTON, DC Joe Biden unveils a reassuringly months “we’ve been functioning at over timates that only 5-10% of those who are in- familiar national-security team 100%” of icu beds, and adding other sorts, tubated survive it. Emma Nash, an icu fel- he says. Finding enough trained staff is the low at a hospital in Omaha, Nebraska, says ess than 24 hours after Donald Trump biggest constraint. He admits patients emergency oxygen is delivered, instead, Lconcluded that he could block the tran- from 80 sparsely populated but ever more via a high-powered nasal cannula. sition to Joe Biden’s incoming administra- afflicted counties, sometimes over 150 At home, herself shivering from the vi- tion no longer, the Democratic veteran miles away. The smallest rural clinics, with rus, Dr Nash says hospital resources are took the stage alongside his chosen nation- just a handful of beds and a single doctor, spread thin. “The rest of the country should al-security team. “America is back, ready to are easily overrun. see what’s happening here and realise lead the world, not retreat from it,” he said. Across South Dakota, by November they’re not out of the woods,” she says. (In- The happy gurgles of relief this elicited in 25th, 43% of covid tests were coming back fections are surging again in the South, es- Washington, dc, London, Tokyo and be- positive—still terribly high, but a slight fall pecially.) In mid-November the Midwest yond may be imagined. on before. At the main emergency ward, accounted for half of all new cases in nurs- Even more than expected, Mr Biden’s “some days almost every patient is covid- ing homes in America. Deaths are also tick- choices reflected a stress on unflashy ex- positive”, he says. This is exhausting, be- ing up. On average covid-19 is now killing pertise, pragmatism and personal loyalty. cause staff are constantly donning and re- over 1,550 Americans daily, with the dozen His secretary-of-state nominee and na- moving cumbersome protective gear. midwestern states accounting for an out- tional security adviser, respectively An- Some fall ill, or endure what is sometimes size share of that—560 deaths each day. tony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, are well-re- called “moral injury”. That means trauma, In North Dakota nearly one-in-ten peo- garded Obama administration veterans. Mr such as when nurses care for otherwise iso- ple is a confirmed covid case. Why is the re- Blinken, mild-mannered, impeccably coif- lated, confused and slowly dying patients. gion so afflicted? People in northern states fured and Francophone, served as the for- Holding iPads so that relatives can share are probably meeting indoors, where coro- mer vice-president’s national security ad- last words can upset health workers, too. navirus spreads most easily, more than viser and as a deputy secretary of state. Mr Doctors who need to get deteriorating those in warmer spots. Those in rural Sullivan, possessed of a first-rate intellect patients into bigger hospitals have also places, like north Wisconsin, who earlier and slightly lesser coiffuring, was another struggled. Dr Runde helps to run patient avoided outbreaks may be shunning pro- well-liked Biden nsa. transfers in Iowa and says it can take hours tective measures. And policymakers are at Being friends, they would not be at each of calling hospitals, some in other states, to fault. Many Republican governors and leg- other’s throats as Mike Pompeo and John 1 24 United States The Economist November 28th 2020

The other transition Miss gender

WASHINGTON, DC A book on the rapid increase in trans girls is denounced as transphobic teenage girl who decides to alter her Abody so that it resembles a boy’s com- mits herself to a lifetime of medical treat- ments. “Top surgery”—a double mastecto- my—is a major operation. She must take regular, large doses of testosterone. This may increase her chance of developing heart problems. It also causes the uterus to atrophy, often painfully, which may neces- sitate a hysterectomy. Some of the changes to her body will be irreversible, and likely to cause distress if The Centrist Grandad Collective she changes her mind. If she has taken pu- berty-blockers as well as testosterone she 2 Bolton were. The likely result of their part- ed themselves to signing a petition against may well be infertile. Only a few months of nership (cue more cooing) would be a re- the possible reappointment of Mr Biden’s testosterone may have altered her voice turn to low-key, competent governing, and former chief of staff, Bruce Reed, a relative- and given her a lifelong five o’clock shad- a predictable foreign policy that reflects Mr ly obscure figure, on account of his past ow. Fortunately for such girls, “bottom sur- Biden’s long-standing views. Messrs Sulli- openness to welfare reform. If that consti- gery”—a phalloplasty—is so often proble- van and Blinken could be expected to en- tutes the serious Democratic infighting matic that few request it. gage with global problems, through alli- that some news reports have described it All this, coupled with the fact that ado- ances where possible, and rebuild the as, Mr Biden can rest easy. lescence is confusing at the best of times, institutions they were charged with. Amer- Stiffer criticism of Mr Biden’s nominees might suggest that teenagers should, by ica, suggested Mr Blinken, should have the has come from Republican hawks. Senator and large, be discouraged from embarking “humility and confidence” to rely on its al- Marco Rubio characterised them as a on biomedical gender reassignment. That lies. By choosing a relatively low-profile bunch of privileged do-gooders who would is the argument running through “Irrevers- secretary, notwithstanding Mr Blinken’s be “polite & orderly caretakers of America’s ible Damage,” a book by Abigail Shrier, a qualities, Mr Biden may additionally be decline”. That rather ignored the fact that journalist. It is not one that holds much signalling that he intends to do the high- most of Mr Trump’s team are Ivy Leaguers, sway in America. As the number of trans- est-level diplomacy himself. who have not restored American hegemo- gender clinics has grown from one in 2007 It was hard not to hear this as a repudia- ny—and that Ms Thomas-Greenfield grew to at least 50 today, so has the number of tion of Mr Trump—and harder still when up poor in Louisiana. Yet Mr Rubio’s spiky young patients in them. Once they were Mr Biden’s chosen Director of National In- comments speak to a legitimate question mostly boys; today they are girls. Ms Shrier telligence (dni), Avril Haines, promised about how Mr Biden’s national security ap- argues that many are victims of an ideology that, if confirmed by the Senate, she would proach will differ from Mr Obama’s. which holds that the feeling of being in the “continue speaking truth to power”. Anoth- Mr Sullivan and Mr Blinken have criti- wrong body must be affirmed at all costs. It er Obama administration veteran, and for- cised the Obama administration’s areas of has fuelled a craze, she writes, to which mer deputy chief of the cia, she would be diffidence (on Syria and China especially). teenage girls are particularly susceptible. the first woman dni. Alejandro Mayorkas Mr Biden has additionally underlined that “Irreversible Damage” is full of stories would be the first Latino and immigrant to the post-Trump world is different from the from the mostly white, privileged world in lead the Department of Homeland Security. one his former boss presided over. On bal- which this seems to have flourished. Teen- Mr Biden’s chosen un ambassador, Linda ance, that is probably to his advantage. agers, often awkward and anxious, who Thomas-Greenfield was a rare black wom- Besides lashings of goodwill, his ad- have lost themselves in an online world an at the heights of American diplomacy, ministration will have some useful lever- that lionises anyone who identifies as before she was sacked by Mr Trump. age to work with, in the form of Mr Trump’s trans. YouTubers, who “extol the glories of The diversity of Mr Biden’s nominees is sanctions on Iran and tariffs on China. It testosterone as if it were a protein shake” also from Mr Obama’s playbook. It is in- will have little incentive to dispense with and dismiss parents who are sceptical of tended in part to mollify the hard-left, either in a hurry. Even if Iran can be per- trans-identification as “toxic”. Teachers, whose champions the president-elect has suaded to comply with the terms of the nu- who do not tell parents that their child is otherwise ignored. His nomination of John clear containment deal (negotiated by Mr going by a different name at school. The Kerry, to be his empowered climate envoy, Sullivan) that Mr Trump abrogated, Mr Bi- group she reports on in greatest detail is was another challenge to the left. Mr Kerry den would try to broaden it. And there is no parents. Many of them come across as hap- is a pillar of the reviled Democratic estab- appetite in Washington for giving China less. Apparently unable to tell their chil- lishment; yet the left must love his newly- something for nothing. Notwithstanding dren that feelings of pain and confusion, created post. Mr Biden’s nominees have the happy rhetoric, this might augur a for- especially in adolescence, are part of life been duly welcomed across the party. By eign policy that is neither a total repudia- and usually pass, they instead hope thera- way of dissent, Representative Alexandria tion of Mr Trump’s nor a re-embrace of Mr pists will sort everything out. Ocasio-Cortez and other lefties have limit- Obama’s, but a cross between the two. 7 Ms Shrier is damning of some of the 1 The Economist November 28th 2020 United States 25

2 professionals who have built careers work- Obscure laws ing with trans-identifying children. She points out that this is the only medical field apart from cosmetic surgery in which both Panic attacks diagnosis and treatment are determined by the patient. She describes doctors and ther- NEW YORK The “gay-panic” defence remains legally admissible in 39 states apists (who would ordinarily consider it their job to challenge their patients’ as- aniel spencer was a quiet, 32-year- ard Foundation, which lobbies against sumptions) bowing to the judgment of vul- Dold film editor who had recently hate crimes. It occurs in so few cases, nerable teenagers. They also, grievously, moved to Austin, Texas from Los Ange- scattered across multiple jurisdictions, tell parents who do not accept that their les. He was also gay. In 2015 his neigh- that it seldom attracts much attention. daughters are boys that failing to affirm bour, James Miller, stabbed him to death. The American legal system is no their identity may heighten the risk of sui- The case was harrowing. But a legal quirk stranger to bizarre lines of defence. In cide (research does not back this up). uncovered during the trial made it even 2013 Ethan Couch killed four people Data on transgender medical interven- worse. Mr Miller introduced the “gay- while drunk-driving in Texas. His law- tions are poor—no one knows how many panic” defence in court, arguing that at yers successfully argued that the 16-year- teenagers have transitioned—and one some point on the night of the murder, old was suffering from “affluenza”, hav- wonders at times if Ms Shrier may have be- Mr Spencer had tried to kiss him. The ing grown up sheltered by wealthy par- come so steeped in the phenomenon that victim’s apparent homosexuality had ents who had failed to teach him the she exaggerates its reach. But she tells the made Mr Miller fearful for his safety and consequences of his own actions (he stories of those she interviews with great thus diminished his responsibility. initially avoided prison and was instead care. She writes empathetically about the Despite a lack of physical evidence (and put on probation for ten years). Lawyers distress of gender dysphoria, “the relent- the fact that Mr Miller defended himself for Colin Ferguson, a Jamaican immi- less chafe of a body that feels all wrong,” by stabbing the victim twice in the back), grant who killed six people on a train in and the experience of adults who have he was sentenced to just six months in New York in 1993, pursued a “black-rage” transitioned (a group that has long suffered jail, with ten years on probation. defence, claiming that a lifetime of racial discrimination). She quotes her interview- The case was no anomaly. The “gay- prejudice had driven Mr Ferguson insane ees at such length that it would be hard to panic” defence remains legally admis- (they were unsuccessful). claim she has misrepresented them. sible in 39 states according to the Move- But the track record of the “gay-panic” Yet despite this the book has been de- ment Advancement Project, a think-tank. defence makes it particularly egregious. nounced as transphobic. This month, a It normally bolsters either insanity or The fbi keeps no data on the sexuality of prominent lawyer from the American Civil self-defence claims, and its use goes back homicide victims, and state-by-state Liberties Union tweeted, from his personal decades. The brutal ‘candlestick murder’ records on hate crimes are spotty, so account, that “stopping the circulation of of Jack Dobbins in Charleston in 1958 numbers can be difficult to pin down. this book and these ideas is 100% a hill I resulted in a full acquittal of the man But Carsten Andresen, a criminal-justice will die on”. A professor of English litera- who confessed to the crime, based on the professor at St Edward’s University in ture at Berkeley suggested that people fact that the victim had allegedly made Austin, Texas, has been busy compiling a should steal the book and burn it. Few unwanted advances. Although attitudes database. His research shows that since mainstream newspapers have reviewed it, to homosexuality have changed since the 1970s, gay- and trans-panic defences though it is one of the first accessible treat- then, the law in some places has not. have reduced murder charges to lesser ments of a subject that has generated much The defence is “the problem hiding offences in 40% of the roughly 200 cases fascinated coverage. under the sofa”, says Jason Marsden, that he has identified. In just over 5% of This is a clear illustration of what the executive director of the Matthew Shep- cases, the perpetrator was acquitted or book claims: the dominance of an ideology the charges dropped. that brooks no dissent or debate. One of the It took until 2014 for California to most shocking episodes it describes con- introduce the first ban on the defence cerns Lisa Littman, a medical doctor and (the state’s attorney-general at the time, researcher at Brown University, who noted Kamala Harris, led efforts to push the ban in a paper in 2018 that most transgender through). Since then, ten more states children were teenage girls with no history have followed, most recently Colorado in of gender dysphoria. Many of the teenagers July of this year. Proposed bans are in in her study had been exposed to peers who committee stages in a handful else- had come out as trans shortly before doing where, including Texas and Minnesota, so themselves; a majority had spent more but 30 statehouses remain silent on the time on the internet. The study sparked a issue. And the fact that a third of cases bullying campaign, which prompted since 1970 have occurred in the past ten Brown to publish an apology, though the years suggests that the problem may be paper’s findings never changed. She was worsening, or at least that “every step fired from another job as a consultant. forward is followed by several steps In “Irreversible Damage” Ms Shrier de- back”, says Mr Andresen. For now, nearly scribes meeting Dr Littman and wondering two-thirds of gay Americans are living in out loud about the cultural factors that states where their very existence can be might be causing so many American girls claimed to be a reasonable cause for to want to become boys. She is impressed violence against them. Daniel Spencer when Dr Littman refuses “to theorise be- probably did not know this when he yond the limits of her data”. This punctili- invited his neighbour over for an evening ous respect for the facts had threatened to A not very terrifying sight of wine-drinking and guitar-playing. destroy her career. 7 26 United States The Economist November 28th 2020 Lexington The end of the embarrassment

The assumption that Republicans will remain in thrall to Donald Trump could be misplaced done to their party, and American democracy, could be profound. The next Republican loser to cry fraud will be preaching to the con- verted. Still, the assumption that Mr Trump will continue to pre- side over the mess he has made of the right is premature. There is a reason why Grover Cleveland, in 1892, is the only one- term president to have been given another crack of the whip by his party. Voters want winners. And it is not obvious why Mr Trump—a politician whose pitch is based on his claimed inability to lose— should be a second exception to that rule. Once the smoke of the 2020 battle has cleared, many of his supporters may see him as he is: a loser whose deranged loss-denialism encapsulates why he ran behind down-ballot Republicans all across the country. There are even signs that one or two of his cheerleaders are already chewing on that pill. “You announce massive bombshells, then you better have some bombshells…,” said Rush Limbaugh, puzzling over Mr Giuliani’s performance. The argument for Mr Trump bucking history rests on an as- sumption that he will shift his bully-pulpit to the disaggregated conservative media. With Twitter growing less tolerant of his dis- information, his offspring and supporters are migrating to Parler, which takes a laxer view of it. By becoming a staple on the ultra- Trumpist oan or Newsmax channels—which Mr Trump recom- ppalling as it has been to witness an American president try mended his followers switch to after Fox News called the election Ato steal an election, Donald Trump’s efforts have amounted to for Mr Biden—he could access 50m conservative homes. That less than the best-informed prognosticators feared. Back in June a would constitute a powerful foghorn. But Mr Trump’s ability to bipartisan group of over 100 political operatives and scholars, dictate terms to the Republican Party does not rest on his ability to gathered by the Election Integrity Project, war-gamed the after- entertain its voters. It relates to his power to terrorise Republican math of four scenarios: an unclear result, a narrow win for Joe Bi- lawmakers with a possible primary challenge. And it is not clear den, a clear victory for Mr Trump and the same for Mr Biden. Only that, once out of day-to-day politics, he will be able to do that. in the last simulation was America spared authoritarianism by Mr oan viewers are divorced from reality in more ways than one. Trump, a constitutional crisis and street battles. Where Fox’s heavyweight newsgathering and polling operations Mr Biden’s actual winning margin was at the outer edge of a help it to influence the political debate, the hard-right channels “clear victory”. And the president’s response to it has been even are comparatively irrelevant. Almost no one watches Newsmax on wilder than the war-gamers envisaged. (They did not imagine, in Capitol Hill. It is notable that the Tea Party movement, a Trump such an event, that he would try to coerce Republican state legisla- progenitor, was inspired by an anti-government rant on cnbc. For tors to overthrow the results.) Yet none of the other features of the all his millions of listeners, Mr Limbaugh could not have had the Trump coups they envisioned has materialised. Attorney-General same mobilising effect; such rants are expected of him. Bill Barr has gone to ground. High-powered conservative lawyers It is not hard to imagine Mr Trump, without the ballast of his of- have taken a pass on the president’s bogus fraud claims. fice, drifting into a state of lucrative but ever-more irrelevant blo- Hence the ridiculous Rudy Giuliani, dripping sweat and hair viation. He might not have to resort to singing “Baby Got Back” in a dye and ranting about George Soros and Hugo Chávez, has been the bear costume to get an audience, as Sarah Palin recently did on Fox. spear-point of Mr Trump’s attempted heist. It has been laughable, a But his wilderness years could resemble those of John McCain’s shambles. It has also illustrated—yet again—Mr Trump’s iron grip embarrassing running-mate more than most commentators imag- on his party, to the extent that most commentators seem to think ine. “There is only so long you can live outside the maelstrom of the Republican nomination for the 2024 election is already his for the American news cycle and maintain relevance,” notes Jerry Tay- the taking. They could be right. But Lexington is sceptical. lor, founder of the Niskanen Centre and an astute observer of the That is not to deny the president’s success in fast-tracking the right. Mr Trump’s campaign against the Murdoch channel is prob- myth of his stolen re-election to the pantheon of right-wing griev- ably raising his chances of learning that lesson by the day. It has all ances. The same livid Trump superfans who have been rallying all the makings of a showdown between machine-tooled corporate year against mask-wearing and the scourge of devil-worshipping competence and his own raging ineptitude. Democratic paedophiles have gathered, outside state legislatures from Arizona to Pennsylvania, to demand that state lawmakers Dances with bears “stop the steal”. Right-wing conspiracy theorists have been spit- It is possible to imagine other scenarios. If the Trump clan cap- ting out explanations—involving shadowy Biden-Harris vans tures the Republican National Committee (a prize Donald Trump crammed with ballots in Nevada, vanishing sharpie signatures in junior is eyeing), Mr Trump would have a more than adequate plat- Arizona and so forth—for how the steal took place. A large majority form. Yet take this as a caution. The Trump-bruised commentariat of Republican voters say Mr Biden’s victory was illegitimate. is exaggerating his prospects. When a poll this week suggested 53% A bigger majority of Republican politicians are afraid to dis- of Republicans want him to be their nominee in 2024, it was re- abuse them. Three weeks after Mr Biden’s victory, only a few Re- ported as a testament to his strength. An alternative reading is that publican senators had dared acknowledge it. The damage this has almost half of Republicans already want to see the back of him. 7 The Americas The Economist November 28th 2020 27

Venezuela re-election fraudulently in 2018. That claim is recognised by more than 50 countries, They’re going to win, by a lot including the United States, several large Latin American democracies and nearly all eu members. Mr Guaidó will lose the speakership just before Joe Biden assumes the presidency of the United States, on January 20th. The CARACAS new American administration and its part- The regime will rig December’s parliamentary election ners will have to reconsider their approach e are going to rescue the National of the tourism ministry. She intends to cast to restoring democracy to Venezuela. “WAssembly,” sing Chucho y Omar her ballot for the psuv because she as- The opposition’s current hold on the Acedo, a pop duo hired by the Venezuelan sumes it is not secret and fears losing her legislature came about by accident. In 2015 regime to drum up enthusiasm for the job if she shows disloyalty. Most of the op- Venezuela’s “Bolivarian” regime, in power forthcoming parliamentary election. Their position is boycotting the election, on the for 16 years, was so convinced that it would catchy ode to the government, broadcast grounds that it will be fixed. A last-ditch at- win the election held that year it did not repeatedly on state media, makes it seem tempt by the European Union to delay it by cheat enough to secure victory. It lost in a simple. “A future with greatness is arriving six months to create conditions for a fair landslide, especially in the poor barrios ...Happiness and hope are returning,” the election (like having a trustworthy cne) that were once its stronghold. Venezuelans band chants, to a Latin beat. came to nothing. rightly blamed Mr Maduro for a severe re- The first claim is probably correct. The Although the result is preordained, the cession (which was about to get much National Assembly is the one branch of vote will matter. The regime’s takeover of worse), high inflation (soon to become hy- government still controlled by the opposi- the National Assembly will be a big step in perinflation) and shortages of basic goods. tion to the authoritarian regime of Nicolás its march towards full dictatorship. It will The coalition of opposition parties that Maduro. In an election due to be held on strip Juan Guaidó of his job as the legisla- won control of the legislature should have December 6th the socialist ruling party, the ture’s president. As the holder of that office been able to check the regime. But Mr Ma- psuv, will dislodge it. The regime has taken he claims to be Venezuela’s rightful presi- duro, while recognising its victory, ignored steps to ensure that it cannot lose. It has ce- dent, on the grounds that Mr Maduro won its consequences. The puppet supreme mented its control over the National Elec- court vetoed all the laws passed by the leg- toral Council (cne). islature. Eventually, he replaced it with a Also in this section Pop musicians are not the only means rubber-stamp Constituent Assembly. of ensuring that turnout will be high and 28 Diego Maradona dies Parliament remained a threat to the re- pro-regime. “I don’t want to vote but I have gime, especially after Mr Maduro began a 30 Bello: The future of bolsonarismo to because of my work,” says an employee second six-year term in 2019. His rigged re-1 28 The Americas The Economist November 28th 2020

2 election gave Mr Guaidó constitutional Mr Ramsey expects “a sort of slow walk cus its diplomacy on countries such as Tur- grounds to assume the interim presidency away” from support. European “backslid- key and China that continue to do business in January of that year. The administration ers” are looking for a way to distance them- with Mr Maduro’s regime, thereby prop- of Donald Trump tightened sanctions, selves from Mr Guaidó, grumble diplomats ping it up. They would seek ways to allevi- seeking to deny Venezuela income from who represent more hawkish governments ate the humanitarian crisis while pushing oil, its main export. The hope was that an- in Caracas. Among them are Spain and Por- Mr Maduro to negotiate seriously with the gry Venezuelans, joined by the armed tugal, which are uneasy about continuing opposition on restoring democracy. Mr Bi- forces, would switch their loyalties to Mr to recognise an interim president who has den is thought to favour modifying sanc- Guaidó within weeks. Fair national elec- no power nor much prospect of winning it. tions to lessen the pain felt by ordinary tions would soon follow. Mr Trump, who will still be in office on Venezuelans. Twenty-one months later the opposi- January 5th, is unlikely to waver. His back- But democracy would mean the demise tion is discredited and divided. The armed ing of Mr Guaidó helped him win Florida in of the regime, which is not in its plans. It is forces have not defected. The regime looks the United States’ presidential election. Mr “incapable of negotiating”, fumed a Euro- entrenched. Some components of the op- Biden, who won that election, will adjust pean diplomat in Caracas after the abortive position will participate in the legislative American policy. He has called Mr Maduro effort to delay the legislative election. election, thinking it is better to have a toe- “a dictator, plain and simple” and ex- Changing Mr Maduro’s mind will require hold on power than no purchase at all. Mr pressed support for Mr Guaidó. But the pressure from his friends. For now, he is Guaidó’s allies plan a referendum oppos- president-elect has also rejected the idea of bent on “rescuing” the National Assembly. ing the vote, to be held mostly online. engineering regime change. Bringing “happiness and hope” to Venezu- Venezuelans are more miserable than The Biden presidency is expected to fo- elans is another matter. 7 ever. American sanctions come on top of years of economic mismanagement by the Bolivarian regime. Since 2017 they have Diego Maradona cost the Venezuelan state $17bn-31bn in revenue, estimates the Washington Office Divine and damned on Latin America (wola), a think-tank. That is between a third and a half of this year’s shrunken gdp. This year alone the government has had to slash its imports by half, worsening the misery. The effects are felt by people like Alicia The blessed and cursed life of an Argentine icon Hernández, a former lawyer from Ciudad Bolívar in southern Venezuela, who walks e will live forever on that sunny June punched the ball into the net. He had up to 20km (12 miles) a day to find fuel and Hafternoon in 1986 in the Aztec stadium scored, he said later, “a bit with the head food for her children. In the once opulent in Mexico City. It was the quarter-final of and a bit with the hand of God”. With no oil city of Maracaibo on the northern coast the World Cup between Argentina and Eng- video refereeing back then, the goal stood. residents make home-brew petrol from land. In the 55th minute Diego Armando It was, he said, a kind of revenge for Argen- stolen crude. The exodus of Venezuelans Maradona collected the ball in the Argen- tina’s defeat at English hands in the Falk- since Mr Maduro became president in 2013 tine half and carved his way through the lands (Malvinas) war four years earlier. has reached 5m people, a sixth of the popu- England defence as if it wasn’t there before Between them, those goals summed up lation, the largest such movement ever in striking a low hard shot. It was one of the Mr Maradona, who died of a heart attack South America. greatest goals of all time. It came just four aged 60 on November 25th. Blessed with Now, despite his catastrophic record in minutes after Maradona, with the match divine talent, he had little respect for the office, he looks forward to untrammelled scoreless, had risen to meet a miscued rules in a life that offered riches but which power. Once the psuv wins the assembly clearance in the England penalty area and was always a struggle. He embodied the 1 election it will choose one of its own to pre- side. Mr Guaidó will lose his title on Janu- ary 5th, when the term of the current legis- lature ends. His allies deny this. The forthcoming vote “is not an election”, de- clares Leopoldo López, Mr Guaidó’s men- tor, who is in exile in Spain. “The National Assembly is not being replaced. There will just be a continuation of what is already in place constitutionally.” In fact, Venezuela’s constitution does not spell out what should happen if a legis- lature’s term ends without a duly elected successor. “There’s far from a consensus on this issue among constitutional scholars in Venezuela,” says Geoff Ramsey of wola. The main risk for Mr Guaidó is that doubt over his claim to the interim presi- dency will erode his international backing.

Correction Last week we wrote that scalloped hammerhead sharks lay eggs (“Piscine plunder”, November 21st). In fact, they bear live young. Sorry. With God on his side

30 The Americas The Economist November 28th 2020

2 idiosyncrasy of his country, as Clarín, an was 15 at Argentinos Juniors, a historic but Argentina’s national team. Made rich by Argentine newspaper, noted: “Maradona is modest club. Success there took him to capitalism, he saw no contradiction in the two mirrors, that in which it’s a plea- Boca Juniors and then to Barcelona and Na- friendships with anti-capitalists Fidel Cas- sure to regard ourselves and that which poli. But he found fame and fortune hard to tro and Hugo Chávez. shames us.” handle. He craved affection. Nightclubbing Whether Mr Maradona was the greatest- The son of a maid and a factory worker, in the company of freeloaders and gang- ever player, ahead of his compatriot, Leo he grew up in a tin-and-cardboard shack in sters led to cocaine addiction. There were Messi, or Brazil’s Pelé, is a debate there is no Villa Fiorito, in the rustbelt suburbs of many women, some of whom he beat, and need to resolve. With his humble origins, Buenos Aires. As an adult he stood five feet, enough children to form a football team. Guaraní blood and mop of dark curls, for five inches, but his stocky body and mus- The second half of Mr Maradona’s life Argentines he was ever the pibe de oro, the cular legs gave him explosive power. His was tragically grotesque. Obese and often golden boy. “You made us immensely hap- trademarks would be surging runs, the ball in pain (referees were less protective in his py,” said Alberto Fernández, Argentina’s glued to his feet, and instinctive vision. day), he made pathetic attempts at come- president, as he declared three days of na- His professional career began when he backs. He failed as a manager, notably of tional mourning. 7 Bello The future of bolsonarismo

Brazil’s weak economy stands between Jair Bolsonaro and a second term his has been a bad month for Brazil’s ticians, many of whom were caught up in politics and towards conservative poli- Tpopulist president, Jair Bolsonaro. Lava Jato. tics as usual, allying with the centrão (big First, Donald Trump, whose victory in Mr Bolsonaro, who posed as an anti- centre), a clutch of conservative parties 2016 served as a template for his own and political outsider, tapped into conserva- of professional politicians who hold 221 with whom he aligned his government, tive currents in Brazilian society, some of the 513 seats in Congress. An emergen- lost his bid for a second term. And then long present, some newer. He attracted cy stipend paid to 66m people has blunt- the candidates Mr Bolsonaro backed in disproportionate support from men and ed criticism of his mishandling of the municipal elections on November 15th evangelical Protestants. But what tipped pandemic. Brazil has had more than 6m nearly all fared poorly, while the big the election to him was the popularity of confirmed cases and 170,000 deaths. Mr winners were mainstream parties. Some his talk about family values and law and Bolsonaro’s approval rating has risen pundits are rushing to write his political order in the poor peripheries of Brazil’s big from 30% to 40%. obituary. “The elections of 2018 were a cities, the Workers’ Party’s former base, His most likely path to a second term hiatus and those of 2020 have put things argues a recent book by Jairo Nicolau, a involves cementing his alliance with the back in their right place,” wrote Eliane political scientist. His victory owed much centrão, which did well in the municipal Cantanhêde, the political columnist of O to the skilful use of social media in a way elections. His attempts to set up his own Estado de S. Paulo, a newspaper. that was novel in a Brazilian election. political party, announced a year ago, Brazilian liberals hope she is right, As president, Mr Bolsonaro empowered have yet to bear fruit. An alliance with and that Mr Trump’s defeat will be an hard-right ideologues, pursued polar- the centrão would make him a much less augury of Mr Bolsonaro’s fate at the next isation and all but self-destructed. Six credible campaigner against corruption election in 2022. A former army captain, months ago, amid rising tension caused by and the political class. But it would offer Mr Bolsonaro is scornful of democracy the pandemic, corruption allegations the kind of political machine that his- and its checks and balances, has stuffed against one of his sons and threats of torically helped to win Brazilian elec- his government with military men, says impeachment, he came close to ordering tions—useful since social media alone offensive things about gay, feminist and the armed forces to shut down the Su- are unlikely to give him such a compet- black Brazilians, favours gun ownership preme Court. Some of his military advisers itive edge twice. If the opposition re- and underplays both covid-19 and cli- talked him out of that. Mr Bolsonaro saved mains divided both between left and mate change. His election broke the his presidency by edging away from anti- centre and within those camps, that mould of Brazilian politics and was in would help him, too. some ways an aberration. Even so, it The big problem for Mr Bolsonaro is would be a mistake to write off his the economy. The emergency stipend has chances of a second term. helped the country avoid a deeper reces- In 2018 Mr Bolsonaro was the benefi- sion. But how long can the government ciary of an unusual moment in which the sustain it? Public debt is heading for country’s political class was widely seen 100% of gdp. Even with interest rates to have failed. His chief opponent, Luiz low, that is a big number for a country Inácio Lula da Silva, a once idolised with a history of default and inflation. former president, was in jail, barred from Economic recovery may be slow and running by a conviction for bribe-taking austerity looks unavoidable next year. in the so-called Lava Jato (Car Wash) Income per person has already fallen scandal. Lula’s left-wing Workers’ Party below its level of 2010. Many Brazilians was seen by many not just as corrupt and are suffering. Nationalist sound and fury self-serving but incompetent, having will not pay the bills. Mr Bolsonaro re- driven the economy into what was then mains today a competitive candidate. But its deepest recession in a century. But the by 2022 Brazilians may be less receptive opprobrium extended to centrist poli- to him than they were in 2018. Asia The Economist November 28th 2020 31

Rule of law in South Korea tas against government officials by the prosecutors. But rather than ending the Prosecution complex tug-of-war, Mr Moon’s approach risks in- tensifying it, with potentially grave conse- quences for him and his government. South Korea’s prosecutors have the power not just to indict suspects but also to launch investigations, a task more com- GWACHEON monly performed by the police in other A push to make prosecutors less political is having the opposite effect countries. Under the administrations of he imagery is funereal. The slogans at- of spying on judges hearing cases against Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, Mr Ttached to the sides of the vans outside her predecessor and of lacking political im- Moon’s predecessors, they were accused of the Ministry of Justice are framed in black, partiality. Mr Yoon denies wrongdoing and using their authority to increase their own like pictures of someone recently de- says he will challenge the “unjust” demo- standing as well as to align themselves ceased. They read, “Democracy is dead” tion in court. He says the prosecution ser- with the political aims of the government and “The Ministry of Justice is dead.” The vice is being unfairly targeted by the justice when it suited them. They were seen as too dozens of funeral wreaths made of white minister. That implies criticism of Mr soft on powerful politicians and business- and yellow plastic flowers that have been Moon, who has made reforming it one of people, and too hard on those whom they laid against the building’s fence also carry his political priorities. or the president of the day regarded as pes- messages. One addresses the president: The life-and-death rhetoric employed ky opponents. Both Mr Lee and Ms Park are “Moon Jae-in, you’re going to die.” The ma- by both sides may be overblown, but Mr now serving long prison sentences for cor- jority express wrath for the justice minis- Moon is locked in a ferocious dispute with ruption which critics say prosecutors did ter: “Choo Mi-ae, you bitch.” Funeral music prosecutors. He says he wants to stop both not scrutinise sufficiently during their wails from speakers mounted on the vans. the frequent manipulation of prosecutions time in office. The protest, organised by a right-wing by the executive and the pursuit of vendet- A central aim of Mr Moon’s reform of the group which insists that the wreaths’ mes- prosecution service, parts of which passed sage is strictly metaphorical, and an earlier the National Assembly earlier this year, Also in this section phalanx of flowers left at the prosecution was to put an end to such abuses by limit- service (pictured above) are rather extreme 32 Sri Lanka’s fractious Tamils ing prosecutors’ investigative powers. Un- expressions of support for Yoon Seok-youl, der the new laws, which took effect in the 33 Singapore’s crime wave the chief prosecutor, whom Ms Choo sus- summer, they are supposed to yield some pended on November 24th—the first time a 33 India and Pakistan’s frontline authority to the police and some to a new justice minister has taken such a step. agency to investigate government officials 34 Banyan: Australia v China Among other things, she accuses Mr Yoon and business bigwigs. 1 32 Asia The Economist November 28th 2020

2 Some see an element of hypocrisy in of Korea University Law School. adopted in 1987 but never fully implement- this. Early in his term Mr Moon was fo- For Mr Moon himself, the most impor- ed. Anxieties about majority rule have cused on breaking the power of big busi- tant question may be whether the situation swelled since the election last year as presi- ness and remedying the corrupt habits of increases the danger that he will share the dent of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who as num- his predecessor, and made it clear that fate of his jailed predecessors. So far, not ber two in the Ministry of Defence presided prosecutors had his support in using their even his fiercest critics have accused the over the defeat of the Tigers in a campaign sweeping powers in this effort. “That has president of crimes that could match in which many Tamil civilians also died. made it harder to implement prosecution theirs. As his term draws to a close, he may For almost 20 years the main standard- reform, which involves taking away some nevertheless find himself under growing bearer for Tamils in Sri Lankan politics has of these powers,” says Park Myung-lim of scrutiny by prosecutors who are miffed at been the Tamil National Alliance (tna), a Yonsei University. his efforts to curb their power, yet retain multi-party union led by Mr Arnold’s Illan- Mr Moon appointed Mr Yoon to his post enough of it to cause him misery. 7 kai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (itak). But in elec- because of his reputation as a hard-nosed, tions in August, it slumped from 16 seats in independent prosecutor who did not shy the 225-seat parliament to ten. (Mr Arnold away from cases that the government Sri Lanka’s Tamils was one of its losing candidates.) would rather leave untouched: for in- Mathiaparanan Sumanthiran, the tna’s stance, investigating the national intelli- The war within spokesman and an mp, blames this “very gence service while Ms Park was still in of- serious setback” on popular disillusion- fice. Mr Yoon says that the president ment after the tna failed to strike a deal on encouraged him to apply the same scrutiny autonomy with the previous president, to Mr Moon’s own associates. He has done Maithripala Sirisena. The alliance had been so with gusto, particularly when it comes JAFFNA instrumental in Mr Sirisena’s surprise vic- Tamil politics is badly fractured—but to the officials working to curb the power of tory over Mahinda Rajapaksa, the brother the new government may change that his own agency. Cho Kuk, Ms Choo’s prede- of Gotabaya, in presidential elections in cessor as minister of justice, was forced to anging above the desk of Emmanuel 2015. Yet reconstruction and development resign last year after prosecutors began in- HArnold, the mayor of Jaffna, are images of the north after the long civil war was ne- vestigating his family for nepotism and al- of three Hindu deities, as well as the glected under Mr Sirisena. Equally galling- leged financial irregularities. Ms Choo her- Buddha, Jesus and the Mosque of the Pro- ly, an assembly to draft a new constitution self has come under scrutiny for allegedly phet in Medina. He has to respect all the re- came and went without making a specific seeking favourable treatment for her son ligions of his city, he explains. Most Sinha- proposal. Mr Sirisena began feuding with during his military service. lese, the country’s biggest ethnic group, are his prime minister, and most reforms went None of these investigations has result- Buddhist; Tamils, who predominate in the out of the window. “We put all our eggs in ed in any convictions, prompting accusa- north, including Jaffna, tend to be Hindu, one basket,” laments Mr Sumanthiran. tions from Mr Moon’s supporters that, and there are also small Christian and Mus- The result has been a fracturing of Tamil rather than being scrupulously indepen- lim minorities. (Mr Arnold himself is politics. Canagasabapathy Wigneswaran, a dent, Mr Yoon is using his powers to under- Christian.) The ecumenical display, how- retired Supreme Court judge who had mine the president’s reforms, perhaps to ever, prompted griping from his staff: there served as the chief minister of Northern further his political career or to deflect is little sense of unity in Jaffna these days, Province, of which Jaffna is the capital, left scrutiny from his own associates. (Mr even among the Tamil majority, let alone the tna to form his own party. He won a Yoon’s mother-in-law was indicted on between religions and ethnicities. seat in parliament in August, as did Gajen- charges of fraud on November 24th, fol- Tamil hopes for an independent home- drakumar Ponnamabalam, another Tamil lowing an investigation from which he had land were dashed in 2009, when the gov- nationalist who split from itak. Others to recuse himself.) The government’s crit- ernment defeated the Tamil Tigers, a ruth- threw their lot in with the Rajapaksa broth- ics, however, point to Ms Choo’s repeated less separatist insurgency. But many in the ers’ party, the Sri Lanka People’s Front interventions in investigations that could north still hanker for autonomy, as prom- (slpf), on the basis that it could at least become awkward for the government. ised by amendments to the constitution provide funds for development. One of They charge that the government is revert- them, Angajan Ramanathan, also won a ing to the tactics of its predecessors, using seat. Velupillai Sivagnam, a provincial prosecution reform as a pretext to protect councillor with itak who is in his 70s, can- the president’s allies. The reform has be- not remember a time when there were so come “a shield to cover up whatever misde- many different Tamil parties. meanours Moon’s colleagues commit”, as- In his maiden speech in parliament, Mr serts Jun Sung-in of Hongik University. Wigneswaran demanded self-determina- Despite such claims, most South Kore- tion for Tamils, who he insisted were “the ans seem to support the reforms. But the first indigenous inhabitants of this coun- power struggle between Mr Yoon and Ms try”, reigniting a long-running and futile Choo has done little to turn the prosecu- argument over whether Sinhalese or Tam- tion service into a duller, more workaday ils could claim dibs on the island. But that, agency. Mr Park of Yonsei University thinks says Singaravelu Kumaravel, a Tamil activ- that Mr Yoon’s suspension may convince ist, is what many Tamils want: representa- the entire prosecution service to take their tives who will rail on their behalf. boss’s side, which would not only defeat Many younger Tamils, however, are not the intention of the reforms, but also po- interested in the separatist cause. They tentially paralyse Mr Moon’s administra- have no memory of the 26 years of civil war, tion through endless prosecutions. If Ms says Sivasubramaniam Raguram of Jaffna Choo manages to assert herself, in con- University. They simply hope for better trast, the service may revert to doing the jobs, which draws them to the slpf. With- government’s bidding, says Park Kyung-sin Peace but not prosperity out more energised youngsters, however, 1 The Economist November 28th 2020 Asia 33

2 the future of the “liberation struggle” looks Public Order Act for the smiley-face inci- grim, Mr Raguram worries. dent and another in 2018 in which he held Mr Sumanthiran, however, is more op- up a sheet of paper calling for defamation timistic. He suspects that Mr Rajapaksa’s charges to be dropped against two journal- government will embrace Sinhalese chau- ists who accused government officials of vinism so openly, and pursue such dis- corruption. Mr Wham says he will not criminatory policies towards Tamils, that plead guilty. If convicted, he may be fined it will inadvertently spur Tamil unity. The up to S$5,000 ($3,725) for each offence. new parliament has already adopted sever- Mr Wham has frequently fallen foul of al constitutional amendments, and Mr Ra- Singapore’s laws in his effort to highlight japaksa wants a whole new constitution— how “ridiculous and overbearing” they are, but the topic of Tamil autonomy has barely as he told the New York Times. He has spent come up. Despite their wildly divergent two short stints in jail this year, for “scan- politics, all13 Tamil mps signed a letter ear- dalising” the judiciary by alleging that Ma- lier this month to the president and anoth- laysia’s courts are more independent than er of his brothers, Chamal, who is minister Singapore’s, and for hosting an online for irrigation. It complained about “coloni- event which the authorities deemed a pub- sation” in the form of government efforts lic assembly. The webinar featured Joshua to promote Sinhalese migration to Tamil Wong, a democracy activist who is in legal areas. It will not be their last complaint. 7 trouble in Hong Kong. Last year police in Kazakhstan arrested Sweetless knight a protester for the equally alarming act of Crime in Singapore holding up a blank piece of paper. But the days the sweets have gone and the shells Kazakh authorities do not have the back- are flying in anger. A city reels bone of their Singaporean counterparts: On November 13th India said that four they soon released the man in question civilians and five members of the security without charge. Eugene Tan, a law profes- forces had been killed, and 19 injured, in sor at Singapore Management University, “unprovoked” Pakistani firing across sev- thinks local prosecutors will have an easy eral parts of the loc. Pakistan in turn said time of it. Mr Wham’s photos were shot in that five of its civilians and one soldier Public order is shaken by a public places and were intended “to draw were killed in an “unprovoked and indis- hand-drawn smiley face attention to a particular cause”, he notes. criminate” Indian attack. Both sides said n march an activist named Jolovan “Those actions get caught under the pub- they had given the other a “befitting reply”. IWham stood outside a police station, lic-order law.” Alas, the authorities are It followed an earlier flare-up in April, held up a piece of cardboard with a smiley clearly not cracking down hard enough. when drone footage released by India’s face drawn on it and got somebody to take a Hundreds of Mr Wham’s supporters have army showed alleged Pakistani ammuni- picture. Passers-by, if they noticed at all, posted selfies with smiley faces on social tion dumps and artillery positions erupt- might have wondered what he was doing. media. Call it a crime wave. 7 ing like volcanoes, throwing flaming de- None reported Mr Wham and his badly bris into the cool Himalayan sky. drawn emoji to the police—although in ret- Though India and Pakistan agreed on an rospect they should have. Indeed, the po- India and Pakistan informal ceasefire in 2003, it fell apart a de- lice themselves remained in the station, cade later. Since 2018 the number of cease- apparently oblivious to the dangerous Shell game fire violations recorded by the Indian Army events unfolding outside. But this week the has almost doubled, while Pakistan has authorities corrected their oversight, documented a 10% jump (the figures differ charging Mr Wham with holding an illegal because violations are defined loosely, in- public protest. cluding everything from a stray bullet to an In Singapore, smiley faces are not as in- artillery barrage). Things have been getting The exchange of fire across the line of nocent as they seem—at least not in the steadily worse: in 2019 the Indian army re- control in Kashmir has become fiercer hands of a hardened criminal like Mr corded 3,479 violations; the figure for this Wham, who has frequently violated the he “line of control” (loc) that wends year so far is over 3,800. city-state’s laws. Take freedom of assem- Tacross the rugged valleys of the former In many respects, the shelling follows a bly. Would-be protesters, even if they num- princely state of Jammu & Kashmir is familiar pattern. Former Indian and Paki- ber no more than one, must first secure something of a bellwether. It marks the stani officials acknowledge privately that permission from the police. Mr Wham did spot Indian and Pakistani forces had both sides deliberately target not only army not. (The one spot where it is possible to reached when they agreed on a ceasefire in posts, but also villages. That grim contest gather without approval from the authori- their war over Kashmir in 1948. If the two puts Pakistan at a disadvantage: it has more ties, Speakers’ Corner, has been closed countries are getting on relatively well, the villages and farmland close to the loc, and since March, when many public places mountains are quiet. Soldiers have even its soldiers are averse to pummelling their were shuttered owing to covid-19.) been known to meet on the line to ex- co-religionists in the Kashmir valley (they Mr Wham says the smiley-face stunt change sweets and pleasantries on holi- have less compunction about Hindu areas was in support of two young activists who days such as Diwali or Eid. When the two to the south). Pakistan says that 170 civil- were questioned by police in March for countries met on the cricket field, Ajai ians have been “martyred” and 918 injured posting online a picture even more subver- Shukla, a retired Indian colonel, remi- since 2017. But the ritual of strike and sive than Mr Wham’s. They were depicted nisced in 2013, “each wicket taken or counterstrike is also evolving. Last year In- holding placards which urged the city- boundary hit would see intense celebra- dia began pounding targets north of the Pir state to do more to combat climate change. tory gunfire—directed at a nearby, or espe- Panjal mountain range, where villages are Mr Wham stands accused of breaching the cially vulnerable, enemy post”. But these closer together and denser, for the first 1 34 Asia The Economist November 28th 2020

2 time in years. It also deployed guided mis- artillery flurries—“Diwali fireworks”, as he Another explanation is that cross-bor- siles, which can destroy bunkers. calls them—break out for a jumble of rea- der fire is a form of punishment. General “There is no trigger here,” says Moeed sons. Indian officials often accuse Pakistan D.S. Hooda, another former head of North- Yusuf, an adviser to Imran Khan, Pakistan’s of trying to distract Indian soldiers and ern Command, says that the loc deteriorat- prime minister. “I can’t see any other rea- thus enable militants to infiltrate. Several ed in 2013 after Indian troops faced a wave son for this but what is happening inter- alleged infiltrators have been killed in gun- of improvised bombs, sniper attacks and nally within India.” Last year India revoked fights this month, and on November 23rd even beheadings. “This led to an immedi- Kashmir’s special status, detained local India said it had discovered a freshly-dug ate spike in cross-border firing,” he says. leaders and restricted phone and internet 150-metre underground tunnel. But After a big terrorist attack at Pulwama in access. Panchayat (village council) elec- Happymon Jacob, author of “Line on Fire”, a the Indian part of Kashmir in 2019, for tions are planned on November 28th, with book on the loc, points out that the statis- which a group based in Pakistan claimed tight limits on campaigning. tical relationship between infiltration and responsibility, India grew bolder. “After But General H.S. Panag, who led India’s skirmishing is weak. Shells are as likely to Pulwama, the general policy was to pound Northern Command in 2006-08, says that alert troops as distract them, after all. them everywhere,” says General Panag. 7 Banyan Hurly-barley

Australia learns the hard way about facing China’s wrath t is the oldest move in the Communist which generate over a third of Australia’s ty puts it, “gone out of his way to poke IParty’s playbook: to lock a country in total exports to China. Barley, sugar, tim- China in the eye”. One group of mps, the doghouse when it has offended the ber, lobsters and copper ore have all been sporting claw-mark stickers on their cosmic order. Yet even by China’s stan- banned. Wheat is next. Two biggies, iron office windows, calls itself the Wolver- dards, the 14 grievances presented to the ore and lng, have been spared, but pre- ines, in homage to trigger-happy Ameri- government of Australia this month are sumably only because it is hard to find can teenagers resisting a Soviet invasion striking in scope and animosity. alternatives quickly. in a cult 1980s film. A member, Senator The charges include speaking out Could Australia have avoided the dog- Eric Abetz, says its anti-China stand is against Chinese activities in the South house? From cyber-attacks to influencing about calling out barbarism: “That’s the China Sea, Xinjiang and Hong Kong; elections, China poses a threat, and the Australian ethic—we call a spade a excluding Huawei from 5g telecoms prime minister, Scott Morrison, insists spade.” Yet the antics of members (who networks; calling for an independent Australia’s sovereignty is non-negotiable. include Labor mps) are “immature, juve- inquiry into the origins of covid-19; Yet members of his own Liberal Party as nile and destructive”, a foreign-policy passing a law against foreign interfer- well as the opposition Labor Party think expert, Allan Gyngell, recently warned. ence in politics; pressing the state of the government’s handling of China has, At one parliamentary hearing Mr Abetz Victoria to end its involvement in Presi- in the words of Allan Behm of the Australia called on Chinese-Australians to de- dent Xi Jinping’s flagship infrastructure Institute, been “cack-handed and lacking nounce the Communist Party. initiative; blaming cyber-attacks on nuance”. Why, in August, block the Chi- Still, wariness of China is no longer a China; and accusing Chinese journalists nese purchase of (Japanese-owned) Lion, a fringe activity. In two years the number of being state agents. China also griped big dairy and drinks company, when the of Australians who trust China to “act about Australia’s hostile media and foreign-investment board had already responsibly in the world” has plunged think-tanks. Make China the enemy, a given the nod? And calling alone for a from 52% to 23%, according to the Lowy Chinese official told an Australian broad- covid-19 inquiry instead of with other Institute. In this context, Mr Morrison’s caster, and “China will be the enemy”. countries was inviting Chinese spleen. talk of sovereignty, Mr White argues, has The hypocrisy is breathtaking. China Hawkish dynamics within his party are a primal appeal: plucky Oz standing up to severely limits foreign investment, one reason why Mr Morrison has, as Hugh a bully. But as American power ebbs and expels foreign journalists, takes in- White of the Australian National Universi- Chinese power is in flood, Australians, nocent people hostage as a diplomatic Mr White contends, “have no conception weapon and routinely interferes in other of how to make [their] way”. countries’ politics. As Richard McGregor The lack of plan, says John Hewson, a of the Lowy Institute in Sydney puts it, former Liberal leader, is all too evident in any provincial boss in China who tried to the government’s handling of China. The run a freelance foreign policy in the prime minister needs to get out of the fix manner of the Victorian government without appearing to back down. The would never be heard of again. small businesses suffering from China’s Meanwhile, China has all but shed boycott are his party’s natural constitu- any legal pretence for blocking Austra- ency. The departure of President Donald lian imports. Yet complaining gets Aus- Trump may help: Mr Morrison got spe- tralia nowhere. Coal-carriers are an- cial bile from China for hewing close to chored off the Chinese coast, unable to him. But the gap he needs to close is land their cargoes. Australian wine sits wide. Six years ago Mr Xi addressed stranded on the quay in Hong Kong. For Parliament in Canberra. Today the Aus- decades Chinese demand has stoked tralian government cannot even get a Australian prosperity. In just weeks phone call answered. Welcome, China China has raised obstacles to 13 products seems to be saying, to the new order. China The Economist November 28th 2020 35

China studies can students to go there. This does not bode well for building expertise in a country that Barriers to Sinology is so important to American interests. There are several reasons why students in the West are lukewarm about focusing attention on China. The first is one that has always plagued this academic field—a high barrier to entry in the form of a language so HONG KONG different from Western tongues, requiring As China’s power waxes, the West’s study of it is waning. That is worrying the memorisation of hundreds of charac- merica’s president-elect, Joe Biden, related topics at university had “obviously ters in order to acquire basic literacy. Those Asays China is his country’s “biggest decreased” in the past five years. Another who study Chinese at school often learn competitor”. Yet China’s centrality in the lamented a “gradual hollowing out” of Chi- only enough to discover just how challeng- calculations of foreign-policy experts in na expertise in Australia. ing mastery of the language is. Washington and throughout the West is At American universities enrolments in A related problem is that many native hardly matched by the interest shown in Chinese-language programmes reached speakers of Mandarin graduate from uni- academia. Despite China’s efforts to pro- 60,000 in 2013. Three years later a fol- versities in China and the West with a flu- mote interest in the language—and a surge low-up survey found they had fallen by ent command of English. In Western busi- of attention to it in Western schools a few more than 8,000. Students with a serious nesses, opportunities for work requiring a years ago—enthusiasm for China studies at academic interest in China usually spend command of Mandarin may have grown in university level remains lacklustre. Fear of time on a campus there. In 2011-12 almost recent years, but so too has competition for China, and restrictions imposed by it, are 15,000 Americans did so. By 2018-19 the to- such jobs. People who have grown up in in part to blame. tal number of Americans studying abroad China often have an advantage, not only In Britain the number of people study- had risen by 20%. But in China their ranks with language but also in their ability to ing China at university has dipped each had shrunk by the same proportion, de- open doors in China for their employers. year since 2017. Last year it fell by 90 to spite an effort by Barack Obama, when he More recently, China’s increasingly re- 1,434, according to the Universities’ China was president, to encourage more Ameri- pressive political climate has become a Committee in London, which promotes powerful deterrent to those mulling the China studies in Britain. In Australia a sur- subject. Last year King’s College London Also in this section vey last year of 16 academics involved in tried to set up an undergraduate degree in China studies suggested a similar trend. 36 Romance on television Chinese language, but abandoned the plan. One of the scholars said the number of Aus- The faculty found that demand for an exist- 37 Chaguan: Patriotism before profit tralians studying Chinese or China- ing degree in Japanese was far higher. “Peo-1 36 China The Economist November 28th 2020

2 ple are more attracted to Japan culturally— born academics, who make up a growing tant and 24 prospective female dates. The they like the manga, anime and online share of staff in China-studies depart- charismatic moderator, Meng Fei, a former games,” says Kerry Brown, the college’s ments in the West. Chinese police often news anchor, invites the bachelorettes to professor of China studies. China’s soft treat émigrés as Chinese citizens, regard- grill the bachelor on any topic they like. power is weaker. Its censorship of the in- less of any foreign citizenship they may The main draw of the show lies in their ternet and other media and the polluted air have acquired. That can mean even harsher questions, which often focus on the man’s of its cities put students off, academics say. treatment should they be arrested. Even in financial standing. In one of the show’s After Phil Entwistle, a British former ac- the safety of their campuses abroad, they first episodes, a female participant fam- ademic, finished his phd in 2015, he was often keep quiet about topics deemed sen- ously quipped that she would rather “cry in hired by an Irish university to teach a sitive by China for fear that Chinese offi- a bmw” than smile on the back of her boy- course on relations between China and Eu- cials will harass their relatives in China or friend’s bicycle. In another one a woman rope. He found that many colleagues with ban them from travelling there. refused to shake a contestant’s hand be- non-China specialisms were horrified by For Western governments and firms, cause he made less than 200,000 yuan his interest in the place. “They asked, ‘Why coping with China is an ever more pressing ($30,400) a month. do you want to study this really awful re- concern. To respond wisely, they need to Such unabashed hankering after wealth gime? We don’t want anything to do with understand what makes China tick. If there on a programme watched by legions of China—look at what’s going on there.’” are not enough Sinologists to guide them, young Chinese made the Communist Party Having lost hope, for the time being, of they will surely make mistakes. 7 feel uneasy. Media regulators promptly or- pursuing any rewarding work on China dered the show to stop “showcasing and “given everything that is going on”, Mr En- hyping up money-worship” on pain of can- twistle now works as a headhunter. Television entertainment cellation. The ostensible reason was that For those who stick at it, studying China glorifying gold-diggers contravened the is getting ever tougher. Minxin Pei of Clare- Loaded questions party’s socialist values. Officials, however, mont McKenna College in California calls may have been concerned about another it “the hardest it has been since the end of danger. Chinese men outnumber women, the Maoist era”. Gone are the relatively thanks to sex-selective abortion, so many open days of the late 1990s and 2000s. After poor males are doomed to remain single. Xi Jinping took over as China’s leader in BEIJING Reminding them that rich blokes have far The party frowns on money-worship. 2012, the country began tightening restric- more romantic options might make them A popular dating show glorifies it tions on work there by Western academics. envious—and angry. Archives and databases in China became ew chinese television programmes These days, female candidates on the harder to access; visas and interviews more Fcommand as loyal a fan base as “If You programme are no longer allowed to ask difficult to arrange. Are The One”, a matchmaking show now in male contestants how much they earn or In 2018 a survey of China-studies schol- its tenth year. In its early days, some 50m which car they drive. Hobbies from rugby ars in several Western countries as well as viewers tuned in to each episode—an audi- to rap have become the go-to topics of con- Hong Kong found that, in the previous de- ence second only to the evening news bul- versation. Yet “wealth fetishism” remains cade, one-third of them had been denied letin produced by the state broadcaster. To- an undercurrent, notes Siyu Chen, a Chi- either entry to China or permission to use day “If You Are The One” is the nese scholar. The questions are just its archives. Nearly one-tenth said they had sixth-most-watched show in China. But phrased more diplomatically. Bachelors been “taken to tea”—a common euphe- this modest dip in its domestic ranking has are probed about their jobs rather than mism for being summoned for a warning been offset by gains overseas. Broadcasters their salaries. by Chinese officials. Many academics tell in Australia and Malaysia have picked it up. Tactfulness is not always observed. In a their phd students that they may be better Episodes on YouTube attract millions of recent episode one bachelorette asked off moving to another field because of the views around the world. whether the man was willing to subsidise risks or the difficulty of doing research in Each instalment features a male contes- her monthly rent of 6,800 yuan. Incidents China, says Jean-Pierre Cabestan of Hong like this often prompt angry (male) viewers Kong Baptist University. to dig up and publish private information Some scholars now stay away from Chi- about the “female offender” on Baidu na because of the risk of being detained Tieba, a social-media forum which hosts a there. Their fears have been heightened by fan page for the show containing 16m user- the arrests in 2018 of two Canadians—Mi- generated posts. Many female commenta- chael Kovrig, a political analyst, and Mi- tors ridicule these “insecure” men. chael Spavor, a businessman. The two Censors reckon the show could try men’s continuing detention has been in- harder to tone down the money motive. terpreted by many Western observers as a Last year the government published an sign of growing willingness by China to use “Outline for the Moral Construction of Citi- flimsy national-security charges against zens in the New Era”. It identifies “money foreigners from countries with which it worship” as a cause of “moral failure”. In has quarrels. Academics specialising in February regulators hinted that dating sensitive areas such as politics are particu- shows were not helping. But “If You Are The larly wary. Iwatani Nobu, a historian of One” keeps going. Perhaps officials deem modern China at Hokkaido University, was that Mr Meng, the host, has done just held for over two months last year on sus- enough to restrain his contestants’ im- picion of spying. According to Japanese pulses. Or perhaps the party reckons that media he was accused of buying books in crushing the life out of such a popular China relating to historical events before show could infuriate people. Enraged citi- the Communist takeover in 1949. zens may be a more unsettling prospect The risks are even greater for China- Meng Fei, matchmaker extraordinaire than people lusting for wealth. 7 The Economist November 28th 2020 China 37 Chaguan Patriotism before profit

The first lesson of doing business in China is that the state comes first otic entrepreneurs. A lot of business types think only about mon- ey, he explained. Now it is time for them to give back to society. A retired engineer from a state-owned oil company, Wang Yongjian, gazed at a bronze bust of the mansion’s owner. He noted that Zhang had passed imperial examinations with such distinc- tion that, in another age, he could have served alongside an emper- or. But instead, watching China’s agonies in the late 19th century, the scholar-official plunged into business. Mr Wang compared Zhang to British inventors of the first steam engines and to Henry Ford, a pioneering American carmaker. In reality, Zhang created little that was really new. Instead he imported and copied British looms, Dutch irrigation systems and Japanese salt-making techniques, in a bid to fight off foreign com- petitors. Revealingly, the exhibition in Nantong does not conceal any of this. Displays trace the entrepreneur’s journey from schol- ar-official, serene in mandarin’s robes, to indignant nationalist. A diary entry records Zhang’s anger at a treaty, imposed on China after its defeat in the first Sino-Japanese war, which allowed for- eign firms to open manufacturing plants in the country. Zhang vows to go into industry himself to save China. Another display shows the steamships that he bought to end the shameful domina- tion of Chinese inland waterways by foreign shipping companies. our decades after China emerged from Maoist isolation, mys- The dizzying list of businesses founded by Zhang includes cotton Ftery surrounds some big questions about its rulers’ views of the mills, steel mills, a bakery, a distillery and a bus company. Institu- world. Start with a topical one: what are the true feelings of China’s tions he founded include libraries, orphanages, a boy’s school leader, President Xi Jinping, towards Western-style shareholder (motto: “Honesty, Loyalty, Independence, Hard Work”) and a capitalism, with its emphasis on free competition, transparency, school for girls (motto: “Domesticity, Obedience, Thrift, Gentle- separation between ownership and management, and oversight ness”). The exhibition is strikingly incurious about the funding for by impartial regulators and courts? this empire, beyond faded photographs of supportive officials and Listen to speeches aimed at foreign audiences, and China is an images of share certificates. Luckily, Zhang’s conglomerate has example to the capitalist world. It is presented as a champion of been thoroughly studied by historians, among them William openness and fair play, defending free trade against populist na- Goetzmann and Elisabeth Köll. Their paper in 2005 for the Nation- tionalists who have fantasies of turning back the forces of global- al Bureau of Economic Research, “The History of Corporate Own- isation. Yet at home Mr Xi spends as much time stressing national ership in China: State Patronage, Company Legislation, and the Is- self-reliance, urging Chinese firms, officials and scientists to end sue of Control”, describes a cautionary tale. their country’s dependence on foreign technologies. Fresh confusion was caused when the government abruptly Serve the state, and the state will keep competition at bay suspended what was expected to be the largest stockmarket flota- Government officials asked Zhang to launch his business in 1895 as tion in history, early in November. That ipo by Ant, a financial- a guandu shangban, or government-supervised, merchant-man- technology giant, collapsed after its founder, Jack Ma, publicly aged enterprise. These firms were modelled on Qing dynasty ar- grumbled about cautious regulators and small-minded banks. In rangements by which merchants were granted monopolies, for ex- China, many sensed a warning from the government that even bil- ample in salt-trading, in exchange for collecting taxes and making lionaires must defer to the party. On November 12th Mr Xi sent an- donations to the emperor to pay for military expeditions or disas- other message. He visited the eastern city of Nantong to hail a local ter relief. Even after China passed a company law in 1904 and industrialist, Zhang Jian, as a patriotic entrepreneur whose life Zhang’s conglomerate became a stockholding firm, he ran it as a story, from 1853-1926, should be studied by business bosses. Tour- paternalist autocrat. His first company meeting, in 1907, saw mi- ing the mansion that Zhang called home, Mr Xi praised the schol- nority shareholders protest that donations to build schools should ar-turned-businessman for building a manufacturing empire, as come from his own funds, not the firm’s profits. Think of your con- well as founding schools and China’s first museum. When private sciences, Zhang loftily retorted, ignoring them. entrepreneurs get rich they should become wise and socially re- Neither fully capitalist nor state-owned, Zhang’s business em- sponsible, Mr Xi said. He instructed that the site become a base for pire was financed by equity capital but existed to serve the country. patriotic education. That gives Zhang enduring appeal for China’s leaders. Long before It is worth listening whenever a secretive regime reveals what it Mr Xi praised him, Mao Zedong called him one of four Chinese in- values. On a damp, grey morning this week that hunch took Cha- dustrialists who should never be forgotten. Objectively, Zhang was guan to Zhang’s gloomy, allegedly “British-style” mansion in Nan- not such a successful capitalist. Having narrowly avoided bank- tong, to retrace Mr Xi’s steps. Downstairs, he found a delegation of ruptcy in 1922, he was removed two years later as the company’s Communist Party members from the Nantong city government. head by a consortium of banks. His first external audit had re- They were filming their own visit for later study. In an antique- vealed an opaque mess of transfers and loans to ailing subsidiar- filled room upstairs, a local man, Zhang Yuanxin, did not hesitate ies. Today, he is a model patriot. Modern Chinese entrepreneurs when asked what lesson he took away from Mr Xi’s praise for patri- may draw their own conclusions. 7 The need has always been there. This year, it happens to be greater .

As more people face poverty, you can help rescue Christmas with a monthly gift of $25 that provides food, shelter, and hope to the most vulnerable this season. Enlist in Love’s Army at SalvationArmyUSA.org. Middle East & Africa The Economist November 28th 2020 39

American policy in the Middle East fore. (Exact numbers are elusive because much of Iran’s oil trade is now done in se- You’re sanctioned! cret.) The rial, Iran’s currency, has lost 85% of its value. Yet economic pain has not brought political change. Sanctions have not compelled Iran to halt its support for militias nor convinced Bashar al-Assad, the BEIRUT Syrian dictator, to stop bombing his peo- The Trump administration has little to show for four years of economic ple. Sanctions may be an alluring tool for warfare against Iran and its allies presidents. They are inexpensive, blood- erhaps he should have done a bit heavy foreign policy. less and largely up to executive discretion. Pmore shopping on his last trip to New In Mr Trump’s first three years the Trea- But they often do not work. York. Last autumn Gebran Bassil, the head sury Department added an average of 1,070 Sanctions can be effective when they of a Christian party in Lebanon, was his names a year to its main sanctions list (see have broad international support, achiev- country’s foreign minister and aspired to chart on next page), compared with 533 un- able demands and are targeted at firms and be its next president. On a trip to America der Barack Obama and 435 under George people that need to trade and travel. A in September he visited West Point, a mili- Bush. More than 20% of the 8,600 entries multilateral embargo on Iran led to the deal tary college, where he decried the corrup- on the list are linked to Iran and the four in 2015 that restricted its nuclear pro- tion that has bankrupted Lebanon. Mr Bas- Arab countries where it wields the most in- gramme. Sanctions on Rusal, a Russian sil may be unable to return—because fluence: Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. aluminium giant, forced a Kremlin-backed America has blacklisted him for his own al- “Maximum pressure”, as Mr Trump calls oligarch to surrender control of the firm. leged corruption. it, has been a tactical success. In April Iran’s Mr Trump’s maximum-pressure cam- The sanctions announced on Novem- oil exports dipped as low as 70,000 barrels paign, however, fulfils none of these crite- ber 6th against Mr Bassil were Donald per day, compared with 2.5m two years be- ria. For a start, many of his sanctions are Trump’s highest-profile move against a unilateral, and some have begun to fray. Lebanese politician. Yet it is not clear what Iran’s oil exports have climbed from their Also in this section his administration hoped it would achieve, nadir in April, perhaps to as high as 1m bar- beyond complicating efforts to form a new 40 Israel and Saudi Arabia meet rels a day this autumn, as some countries Lebanese government in the aftermath of (particularly China) have defied American 41 Police killings in Uganda the huge explosion at Beirut’s port in Au- threats and snapped up discounted crude. gust. Officials have offered contradictory 41 Nigeria’s controversial banknotes In its final weeks the administration is rationales for the move, which illustrates debating whether to label the Houthis, an 42 Migration from west Africa the incoherence in America’s sanctions- Iranian-backed Shia militia in Yemen, as a 1 40 Middle East & Africa The Economist November 28th 2020

2 terrorist organisation. Such designations ruption from his time as energy minister. The two reportedly talked about Iran as are meant to cut off funding. But the (He denies them.) well as about establishing diplomatic ties. Houthis have few legitimate sources of rev- Yet he is hardly the only Lebanese poli- Yet unlike the United Arab Emirates and enue to block, since most of their cash tician accused of graft; looting the state is a Bahrain, which recently “normalised” rela- comes from smuggling and extortion in Ye- policy on which the leaders of most of Leb- tions with Israel, Saudi Arabia is not ready men. Their leaders tend not to buy condos anon’s factions agree. To date America has to open an embassy in the Jewish state. in Miami or invest in Wall Street. gone only after officials linked to Hizbul- King Salman bin Abdulaziz has long sup- If they would be no more than symbolic lah, the Shia militia-cum-political party. A ported Palestinian demands for an inde- for the Houthis, sanctions could have con- top official dismisses talk of imposing pendent state in territories captured by Is- sequences for other Yemenis. Some 80% of sanctions on “our guys”. Dorothy Shea, rael in 1967 and the principles of the Arab the country’s 30m people rely on aid. Since America’s ambassador to Lebanon, says Mr Peace Initiative of 2002. This policy, which the Houthis control a large swathe of Ye- Bassil offered to “break with Hizbullah, on exhorts members of the Arab League not to men, aid agencies must deal with them to certain conditions”. The subtext seemed to establish normal relations with Israel until distribute food and health care. Sanctions be that corrupt politicians are only proble- it withdraws from all occupied territories, would make this harder. matic if they pick the wrong partners. is unlikely to change while King Salman is Mr Assad blames sanctions for the lack Defenders of Mr Trump’s policy insist alive. As a sign of the tension within the of progress in rebuilding his shattered that it simply needs more time to work, an Saudi royal family over relations with Isra- country. It is a risible complaint: the main argument that is impossible to disprove. el, the Saudi foreign minister belatedly de- obstacle to foreign investment in Syria is a Mr Trump leaves office with Iran’s influ- nied that any such meeting had occurred. regime that bombs hospitals and gasses ci- ence undiminished and its nuclear pro- And although neither side has offered vilians. Still, sanctions undeniably have an gramme accelerated. Sanctions can be a official confirmation, both seem happy effect. To escape the vice, Mr Assad must useful foreign-policy tool. But they cannot enough that the news has leaked out be- end attacks on civilians, release prisoners, be the only one. 7 cause of two key messages it sends. The and hold officials accountable for war first is a warning to Iran: as it steps up its crimes. Having won a battlefield victory nuclear activities, the regional alliance against rebel groups, though, he is unlikely Israel and Saudi Arabia against it is becoming bolder. In mid-No- to agree—particularly to the last demand, vember the International Atomic Energy which would require him to put members The not-so-secret Agency said that Iran’s stockpile of low-en- of his own regime in the dock. riched uranium was 12 times bigger than Some diplomats argue that this is fine. alliance the limit set by a nuclear accord it agreed to “You break it, you buy it,” says one, insist- in 2015 (and from which America withdrew ing that the West should not help rebuild a in 2018). Israel has in the past threatened to country Mr Assad chose to destroy. But this JERUSALEM bomb Iran’s nuclear sites if it comes close Israel and Saudi Arabia send a clear means sanctions are strictly punitive: that to building a nuclear weapon. signal to Iran—and Joe Biden economic pain is an end rather than a The second message the meeting sends means. And Mr Trump has been selective sraeli ministers were told at the last is to America and the incoming adminis- about whom he chooses to punish. He re- Imoment that a cabinet meeting sched- tration of Joe Biden. When Donald Trump fuses to impose legally mandated sanc- uled for November 22nd had been post- took over the presidency, much of his poli- tions on Turkey, for example, because of its poned. Not said was that the prime minis- cy in the Middle East seemed focused on purchase of Russian missiles. Nor has he ter, Binyamin Netanyahu, was making his unwinding the legacy of his predecessor, penalised allies with ghastly human-rights way to the airport where he was met by the Barack Obama, whose administration had records, such as Egypt, which this month chief of the Mossad spy agency, Yossi Co- struck the nuclear accord with Iran and detained three prominent activists. hen, who also functions as his plenipoten- several other powers. Mr Trump tore up the The sanctions on Mr Bassil are instruc- tiary to countries with which Israel does deal and reimposed economic sanctions tive. Few Lebanese were upset about the de- not have official relations. As night fell that had been lifted under it. His adminis- cision. Seen as haughty and entitled—his they flew due south, over the Red Sea, to tration has also abandoned a long-stand- father-in-law is the president—Mr Bassil Saudi Arabia. ing American policy of acting as an impar- was a butt of popular anger during mass Sharp-eyed journalists noticed the un- tial peacemaker between Israel and the protests last year. The American charge usual flight on an online flight-tracking Palestinians, saying it would recognise Is- sheet against him cites allegations of cor- website and quickly put two and two to- rael’s annexation of conquered territories. gether: Mike Pompeo, America’s secretary The Trump administration has also de- of state, was also in the kingdom, meeting lighted Saudi Arabia with its tough stance The pen-pusher’s might Muhammad bin Salman, the powerful on Iran and its indulgence of Saudi human- US, new entities added to OFAC* sanctions list crown prince, in Neom, a new high-tech rights abuses, including the murder of Ja- city that the prince is building. Unusually, mal Khashoggi, an exiled journalist.

BUSH OBAMA TRUMP calls to Mr Netanyahu’s office to confirm This may be about to change under Mr 1,500 reports that all three men had met were not Biden, who has called the Saudi regime a rebuffed with denials. Equally surprising “pariah” and threatened to halt arms sales. was the lack of action by Israel’s military He has also promised to restart diplomacy 1,000 Annual censors, who in the past had quashed re- with Iran and renegotiate the nuclear deal. average ports of Israeli-Saudi co-operation. One of Israel and the Saudis seem to have put 500 Mr Netanyahu’s aides snidely tweeted that the president-elect on notice that they in- unlike his defence minister and rival, Ben- tend to pool their considerable diplomatic ny Gantz, “who is making politics”, Mr Net- and political capital in Washington to op- 0 anyahu “is making peace”. Saudi officials pose major changes in America’s Middle have also confirmed the meeting between East policy. That is something of an 2001 05 10 1915 Mr Netanyahu and Prince Muhammad, re- achievement for a meeting that, officially Source: Gibson Dunn *Office of Foreign Assets Control ports the Wall Street Journal. at least, never took place. 7 The Economist November 28th 2020 Middle East & Africa 41

Uganda’s election Nigeria Bullets before It’s all in the script the ballot

KAMPALA The state shoots scores dead in the A row over banknotes shows up ethnic capital’s worst violence for a decade and religious divisions mos ssegawa was a 15-year-old school- alcolm omirhobo is no stranger to Aboy walking past a shop with his moth- Mthe Federal High Court in Lagos, Nige- er. John Kittobe was a retired accountant ria’s commercial capital. A human-rights on a trip downtown. Sophie Kusasira was lawyer, he is well-known for filing suits selling food in a market. All were shot dead against the government, including one for by Ugandan security forces on November not releasing his ten-year-old son’s exam 18th and 19th, along with scores of others, results. His latest case has created an espe- in the worst violence seen in Kampala, the cially loud buzz. He is arguing that Arabic country’s capital, for a decade. script (known as Ajami when used to write Unrest broke out after the arrest of Bobi non-Arabic languages) on certain Nigerian Wine, a popstar-turned-politician who is banknotes violates the country’s secular the opposition’s most popular candidate in constitution. He wants it removed. He may presidential elections scheduled for Janu- Carrying a torch for Bobi Wine also petition the army to delete an invoca- ary. He draws crowds far larger than the tion in Arabic on its flag. 200-person limit set to contain covid-19. this month’s protests took the state by sur- With perhaps 200m people and 350- The singer was in Luuka district on Novem- prise. Mr Wine inherits a long tradition of plus languages and ethnic groups, Nigeria ber 18th when police bundled him into a discontent, yet he differs from other lead- is a mosaic of cultures. A century ago the van. He was not seen again until a court re- ers: the young people in Kampala’s “ghet- British amalgamated the three biggest leased him on bail two days later, after he tos” see him as one of their own. groups under one administration—Hausa- had been charged with “doing an act likely The battle for the streets matters. Many Fulani in the mainly Muslim north, Yoruba to spread infection of disease”. in the opposition deem it their best hope of and Igbo in the mainly Christian south— In the meantime young men in Kampa- gaining power. The protesters have shown despite each having its own traditions and la and other cities blocked roads with rocks they can paralyse the capital for a day or history. Ethnicity and religion have often and burning tyres. Police, soldiers and two, but their strategy ultimately relies on clashed, especially in Nigeria’s central plain-clothes gunmen swarmed onto the the police and army deciding not to shoot. area, known as the Middle Belt. streets, firing tear-gas and bullets. The po- For the moment, the security agencies Ajami and other Arab influences have lice say that 45 people died in two days of are loyal to the president. Their chiefs are long stirred up arguments over Nigeria’s violence, but the number is probably high- too busy bickering with each other to turn identity. In the early 2000s a dozen north- er. By comparison, the country has regis- on him. The middle classes have not taken ern states imposed sharia (Islamic law). In tered 191covid-19 deaths in eight months. to the streets, as they did in Sudan against 2007 the central bank replaced Ajami with President Omar al-Bashir. “An officer Roman letters on lower-denomination Firing blind would rather maim some errant wananchi notes of the naira, Nigeria’s currency. It Supporters of Yoweri Museveni, the presi- (ordinary people) and get a slap on the said it was trying to foster national unity by dent since 1986, were quick to condemn the wrist than refuse an order from above,” upholding the spirit of the constitution of “hooliganism” of protesters, some of says Su Muhereza, a political analyst. 1999, which bans the establishment of a whom smashed car windows, threatened The watchful president has concentrat- state religion and the use of any language passers-by and attacked police officers. ed power among those closest to him. His in parliament except English, Hausa, Igbo Elly Tumwine, the security minister, de- brother, Salim Saleh, a general, acts as an or Yoruba. In 2014 Nigeria’s then president, clared that “police have a right to shoot you all-purpose fixer. His wife, Janet Museveni, Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, did the and kill you if you reach a certain level of vi- the education minister, has influential same with a new 100-naira banknote. olence.” But multiple accounts tell of reck- networks of her own. His son, Muhoozi Many northerners were cross. Ajami is a less state force. Eyewitnesses say that Kainerugaba, led an elite army unit until modified Arabic script used for writing Mwanje Sudi, a mechanic, was shot dead 2017, when he was appointed a presidential Hausa, just as the Roman alphabet is used while sheltering in a yard; a bullet hole can adviser; many think he is being groomed for English, explains Mustapha Kurfi, an be seen in the gate where he was hiding. for the top job. Ajami scholar. For centuries it has been Christine Zzawedde, a 58-year-old grand- Mr Museveni will almost certainly win used across Africa for writing Swahili in mother, was standing in her back garden the election, despite the bloodshed—or the east, Mandinka in the west and Yoruba when an errant bullet hit her out of the perhaps because of it. Maria, a chicken- in what is now Nigeria. In northern Nigeria blue. “She was a very humble person, very seller in Kampala, worries that Mr Wine’s it is used in everyday life. On naira notes it loving, very accommodating,” says her supporters are “bringing problems” with is understood by “the old woman in my vil- daughter, in tears. “their chaos”: her own cousin is in a cell lage” who cannot read English, explains Ugandans have witnessed such epi- after being caught with a tyre and a box of Aliyu Ibrahim Gebi, a former lawmaker sodes before. In 2009 security forces killed matches. Many others fear that Mr Muse- from Bauchi state, in the north-east. at least 40 people in riots sparked by a dis- veni will only leave office violently, so will Many Christians, by contrast, fear what pute over the traditional Buganda king- vote for him in order to have a quiet life. they deem to be “Islamisation”. They mut- dom. In 2011 at least nine bystanders were The old soldier promises order, as long as ter that President Muhammadu Buhari, a shot dead during protests against inflation he is in charge. It is the logic of a protection northern Muslim, previously endorsed and bad governance. Even so, the scale of racket. And one day it will break. 7 sharia. Many Christians complain that key 1 42 Middle East & Africa The Economist November 28th 2020

2 cabinet posts are filled by northerners: all grants are casting off in boats along the month one once again left the Canary Is- 36 states are equally represented in cabi- whole coast, from Morocco to Guinea (see lands for Mauritania. In recent years al- net, but not all posts have equal clout. map). The risk of dying on the Canarian most all such flights from the islands were Equally, many northerners see south- route may be six times higher than making to the country, even though few of the mi- erners as “educated but ignorant”, says a the shorter trip to Europe across the Medi- grants were from it. This is because Spain Nigerian-born academic. On both sides, terranean. Despite such danger, more than has an agreement that allows it to send to conspiracy theories are rife. Even educated 18,000 migrants have arrived in the Canary Mauritania nationals of any country if they people often believe that Boko Haram, the Islands this year, ten times more than in are “presumed”—a flexible term—to have jihadist group that has ravaged the north- the comparable period last year. About passed through it. east, has been bankrolled by shadowy 9,000 have arrived in the past 30 days. elites—northern or southern. Some are fleeing terror. The United Na- On a road to nowhere Bad governance makes matters worse. tions High Commissioner for Refugees Most of the migrants flown to Mauritania Divisions widen when leadership is weak, (unhcr) reckons that up to mid-October are then promptly bused to the border of says Jacob Olupona, a Nigerian professor at almost 30% of those crossing were from Senegal or Mali and dumped there. This Harvard. “Buhari is not able to manage Ni- Mali, a country beset by jihadist violence. may break international law. The unhcr geria justly,” he says. “This is why things In the comparable period last year Malians has urged countries not to send refugees are getting out of hand.” Mistrust of gov- were only a tenth of the total. People from from many parts of Mali back because it is ernment turns many Nigerians to religious Guinea and Ivory Coast, both hit recently unsafe. In some cases, says Laura Lunga- fundamentalism. The rising popularity of by election-related violence, account for rotti of the International Organisation for Pentecostal churches and of mosques that another 14% of arrivals, says the unhcr. Migration, migrants who wanted to re- preach extreme versions of Islam deepens But since mid-October arrivals from Sene- quest asylum in Spain have been deported mutual suspicion. gal and Morocco have shot up, too. without being given a chance to do so. Most Nigerians agree that their country Most Senegalese migrants leave in the Senegal, by contrast, has received no re- is better together, though many Igbos, hope of finding a job and sending money patriation flights from the Canaries since whose bid for secession led to a catastroph- back home. “Barça ou barzakh,” they tell 2018, according to Frontex, the eu’s border ic war in the late 1960s, may hanker after each other: “Barcelona or death.” Many are agency. The migration issue is politically greater autonomy. “I think the ties that fishermen, like Amimarr’s boys. Moussa sensitive. The government in Dakar, Sene- bind us are very strong,” says Ebenezer Sall, a fisherman in Mbour, says that five gal’s capital, is nervous about the prospect Obadare of the University of Kansas, the years ago he could fill two big boxes with of boat people being forcibly returned. author of “Pentecostal Republic”. Gimba the fish he caught in a day. “Today it’s not Protests are mounting in Senegal against Kakanda, who has also written about eth- even certain I will get half a box,” he says. the government’s perceived silence about nicity and religion, argues that national At least half of west Africa’s main fisher- the hundreds who have drowned. Yet Euro- ties still need strengthening: “We need to ies are overexploited and illegal fishing is pean governments are frustrated because understand one another, to know each oth- widespread. Yet Senegal’s government has only 8% of Senegalese migrants who have er.” Mr Omirhobo’s case is probably going renewed a fishing agreement with the eu, been ordered to leave Europe have actually nowhere. But the argument behind it is far which lets 45 powerful European vessels been returned to Senegal. Spanish minis- from over. 7 fish for tuna and hake in Senegalese wa- ters have recently visited Senegal and Mo- ters. The eu wants Senegal’s fish but not its rocco to persuade the governments of migrants, says Greenpeace, an environ- those countries to let repatriation flights Migration from west Africa mental ngo. resume—and to try harder to stop the mi- Covid-19, too, has made things worse for grants from setting off in the first place. Africa’s do-or-die fishermen, many of whom were restricted That will be hard. Many migrants are to working only three days a week. The vi- still prepared to risk death for a better life boat people rus has generally clobbered west African in Europe. “I want to leave to earn a living to economies, so other jobs are scarcer, too. look after my mama—to show her the love I And some migrants erroneously think that have for her,” says Beytir, a 31-year-old fish- MBOUR deaths from covid-19 in Europe will have erman in Mbour who has tried the journey Desperate to reach the Canary Islands, opened new employment opportunities twice—and is thinking of trying again. 7 hundreds of migrants are dying at sea there. Border closures in north Africa and n the dead of night Abdou Aziz Thiaw tougher European anti-migration mea- Iand Malick Niang, two brothers, recently sures along the coast have made the Medi- PORTUGAL SPAIN ITALY squeezed into a battered wooden boat in terranean route harder. ATLANTIC Mbour, a fishing town in Senegal. Along In the Canary Islands thousands of mi- OCEAN Med. with some 50 others they hoped to evade grants have been sleeping on the wharf in Sea Canary Islands police patrol boats and survive the voyage the town of Arguineguín. The authorities (Spain) MOROCCO of 1,500km to the Spanish Canary Islands— have put more than 5,000 migrants into LIBYA and, once there, to go on to Europe. Weeks hotels and is building a tent city for 6,450 ALGERIA later their mother, Amimarr, got a call. Ab- people. The Spanish government has large- A H A dou Aziz had made it. But—her voice fal- ly refused to have them transferred to the S R A MAURITANIA NIGER ters—Malick died at sea. “No mother in the mainland for processing. Some Canarians MALI world wants to see her sons go through that fear that their islands may be turned into SENEGAL ordeal,” she whispers. “But we must not an open-air prison. Dakar stop them. There is no alternative.” To stop the influx, the Spanish govern- Mbour This year at least 529 migrants are ment says it is planning to more than dou- GUINEA known to have died trying to reach the Ca- ble the number of boats and aircraft patrol- Migration nary Islands from Africa. Almost 400 more, ling the west African coast—and to bump IVORY routes, 2020 COAST Land Sea in nine missing boats, are presumed dead. up the rate of repatriation flights, which 1,000 km The true total is probably higher still. Mi- were halted because of the virus. This Source: IOM Europe The Economist November 28th 2020 43

Also in this section 44 Swedish gang violence 45 Sicily and EU cash 45 European defence rows 46 Populist Polish pop 47 Charlemagne: Newtonian Europe

The Sweden Democrats out of power, mainstream parties have had to form unstable coalitions. On their way in An upsurge in violence between ethnic gangs (see next article) has given the Swe- den Democrats another boost. “The major- ity society is losing control over areas of Sweden,” says Mattias Karlsson (pictured, with waistcoat), an mp and the party’s un- STOCKHOLM official chief ideologue. He wants to hire How long will Sweden’s nationalists be excluded from power? more police, pay them better and swiftly wo young men, Andreas Palmlov and any statistic. And the Sweden Democrats deport foreign criminals. When an Afghan TJulian Kroon, sit in a bar swapping tell a simple, emotive one: that non-Euro- commits a crime in Sweden, he says, “hu- anecdotes about their native Sweden. The pean immigrants are ruining Sweden, and man-rights people say we can’t guarantee welfare system is so lax that an immigrant a left-wing government is letting them. his safety in Afghanistan, so they let him drew benefits while serving as the defence In 1988, when it was founded, the party out on the streets again.” minister of Iraq. A lecturer was suspended was dismissed as a rabble of neo-Nazis. But An increase in recorded sex crimes “is because students complained that a lesson since the 1990s it has purged overt racists to a large extent cultural”, says Mr Karlsson, about fatherhood was heteronormative. and cleaned up its image. It gained mo- noting that Sweden took in many refugees And 1m kroner ($116,000) of taxpayers’ cash mentum in 2015 when Sweden opened its from sexist countries. Reality is more com- was lavished on art intended not for hu- doors to refugees, letting in over 160,000 plicated. Sweden expanded its definition man eyes but those of birds and beetles. (1.6% of the population), mostly from cul- of rape in 2013, and counts it differently Some of the details are disputed. The turally distant places such as Syria and Af- from other countries. If a woman says her Iraqi politician, Najah al-Shammari, a ghanistan. The government mishandled boyfriend assaulted her daily for a year, Swedish citizen, denies committing bene- the influx, showering the newcomers with Sweden records 365 offences; other coun- fit fraud. But stories like these help explain handouts but making it hard for them to tries might record only one. So the claim, why Mr Palmlov and Mr Kroon are mem- work. (For example, the de facto minimum common on alt-right websites, that immi- bers of the Sweden Democrats, a wage in shops, hotels and restaurants is gration has made Sweden the “rape capital nationalist party. They believe that Sweden nearly 90% of the average wage in those in- of the world”, is nonsense. is under threat: from immigrants who dustries, pricing newcomers who are still Still, crime rates among refugees really drain the welfare state, from radicals who learning Swedish out of entry-level jobs.) are higher than among native-born undermine traditional values and from an The open-door policy was quickly re- Swedes, partly because so many are job- establishment that stigmatises voices of versed. But the sight of so many jobless less. Other parties approach the topic gin- common sense like their own. Muslims lent credibility to the Sweden gerly, for fear of sounding racist. The Swe- Storytelling matters in politics. Voters Democrats’ message. At an election in 2018, den Democrats have no such hang-ups. remember a good yarn more easily than the party won 17.5% of the vote. To keep it “We say what you think,” is their slogan. 1 44 Europe The Economist November 28th 2020

2 The party is planning for the long term. in a cemetery in a so-called humiliation Its leaders swap notes with American Re- 250 km crime. In the first half of this year 20 peo- publicans. Mr Karlsson has set up a think- ple, mostly young men, were killed in 163 tank. Mr Kroon runs a fast-growing federa- shootings. A study in 2018 found that a man Arct tion for students. Many are “tired of politi- ic Circle aged 15 to 29 in Sweden is ten times more cal correctness”, he says, and need “a new likely to get shot than in Germany. home” outside the “opinion corridor” of Norwegian The problem is concentrated in highly socially acceptable (ie, left-liberal) views. Sea segregated immigrant neighbourhoods. In At the national level, centre-right par- Husby, a suburb of Stockholm, more than ties have resisted the temptation to cut a 80% of the population are migrants or the FINLAND deal with the Sweden Democrats, though it SWEDEN children of migrants, most of them from would give them a swift path to power. But Iraq, Somalia, Syria and Turkey. The scene the taboo is fading. Local politicians have NORWAY Helsinki of ugly riots seven years ago, Husby is offi- already taken the plunge. The Sweden Oslo cially classified as one of 22 “extremely vul- Democrats enjoy power or a share of it in Stockholm Tallinn nerable areas” prone to crime and violence. several towns, especially in the conserva- Baltic ESTONIA Unemployment in such neighbourhoods is Gothenburg Sea tive south. Some of their local leaders are LATVIA high. Thanks to restrictive labour rules, it risibly incompetent. But others are eager to Riga is hard for unskilled newcomers to find show that they are not scary and can handle DENMARK Solvesborg jobs. Many teenage boys skip school; gangs the humdrum tasks of government. Copenhagen LITHUANIA offer a sense of purpose and belonging. Malmo Vilnius The party’s showcase is Solvesborg, a Around half the street-gang members town of 17,000. The mayor, Louise Erixon, are foreign-born; 85% have an immigrant is the ex-partner of the party’s national orphan and a member of a persecuted mi- background. The gangs are loosely organ- leader, Jimmie Akesson. She is popular, nority. He had fled Afghanistan after his fa- ised, without a strict hierarchy. Their fre- pro-business and unashamedly populist. ther disappeared (and was probably mur- quent use of extreme violence is a sign of She boasts of hiring more security guards, dered by the Taliban). He has studied hard, immaturity, says Amir Rostami of Stock- banning begging and barring visits to nurs- learned Swedish and stayed out of trouble. holm University. More mature gangs in ing homes to protect the elderly from co- He is now back in Kabul taking maths Germany are less violent, he explains, be- vid-19. She favours drug tests in schools, classes. “Yesterday when I was in school, a cause it is “bad for business”. and repatriation for immigrants “who re- rocket exploded outside. And again today. Many native Swedes are calling for fuse to be a part of [Swedish] society”. She It’s hard,” he says. The Swedish family who tougher policing. So are many immigrants, accuses the mainstream parties of weaken- took him in while he was in Sweden, the who suffer most from crime. Sweden has ing “good old Swedish togetherness”. She is Winbergs, have found him a permanent job only two cops per 1,000 inhabitants, com- thought to have national ambitions. at a trendy vegetarian restaurant in Stock- pared with three in Germany. The govern- Ms Erixon came to power thanks to a holm. In theory, he should get a work visa ment recently decided to hire 6,000 more deal with the centre-right Moderate party, and be allowed to return. But Hans Win- police and 4,000 in supporting jobs by whose national leaders opposed it. But a lo- berg, an academic, frets that the govern- 2024. Erik Nord, chief of the Gothenburg cal one, Emilie Pilthammar, went ahead, ment is doing everything it can to keep ref- police, wants 10,000 more officers (and the for bread-and-butter reasons. Ms Piltham- ugees out. “The climate has changed,” he 4,000 support staff), and more camera sur- mar says she wanted to bring down a cro- says. “This is painful to me as a Swede.” But veillance too. The police were only recently nyist left-wing administration, boost local many Swedes welcome it. 7 allowed to tap criminals’ phones. business and provide more choice in child Operation Hoarfrost, launched after the care. However she later fell out with Ms fatal shooting of a 15-year-old in November Erixon, who she says would give council- Swedish gang violence last year, brought in police from across lors only a few minutes to read key docu- Sweden to crack down on crime in Malmo, ments before making a decision on them— Segregated cities a southern city. In recent years the culprit something she says was bad for democracy. has been arrested in only 20% of gangland (Ms Erixon denies this.) murders. The city hopes that more officers Mr Karlsson is “very optimistic” that the and better policing methods will improve Sweden Democrats will gain a share of na- this dismal record. tional power, perhaps after an election in Sweden is also trying to learn from 2022. Nils Karlson (no relation) of Ratio, a STOCKHOLM nearby Denmark and Germany. “We want Sweden struggles to curb gang violence research institute, predicts that the centre- to follow the Danish model,” says Johan right will not join a formal coalition with n august a criminal clan set up road- Forssell, an mp for the centre-right Moder- them but might form a looser arrange- Iblocks in Gothenburg to catch members ate party, pointing out that gang members ment, whereby the Sweden Democrats of a rival gang. The police intervened and from Stockholm who committed a murder “consent” to a centre-right government in made several arrests, but failed to charge in Denmark were sentenced to 20 years in exchange for policy concessions. “That anyone. The gang war in Gothenburg even- prison, whereas in Sweden they would scares me a lot,” he adds. tually ended not because the cops stopped have got four years in a social institution Meanwhile, the mainstream parties it, but because the gangsters negotiated a because they were under 18. have all but adopted the Sweden Demo- truce. Swedes are shocked to see such in- Police from Sweden went to Essen and crats’ policies on shutting out new refu- stances of the forces of law and order losing Berlin, German cities with high levels of gees. Mattias Karlsson’s suggestion that control of the country’s streets. clan criminality, to study local policing. In Sweden does not send Afghans back to Af- Sweden remains exceptionally safe—its particular, the Swedes are considering Ger- ghanistan would come as news to Jacob murder rate is only a fifth of America’s. But many’s tougher gun laws and its methods (not his real name), who was deported last a surge of spectacular gang crimes has cap- for confiscating criminal funds. It will take year. His claim to asylum appeared water- tured public attention. This summer two time to reverse the trend, says Mr Rostami, tight: he arrived in Sweden as a 14-year-old Swedish teenagers were tortured and raped but Sweden is belatedly confronting it. 7 The Economist November 28th 2020 Europe 45

Sicily and EU cash No cosying up to Cosa Nostra

PALERMO Can a famously corrupt island secure its share of the eu’s covid-19 fund? ebastiano (“nello”) musumeci, the Sgovernor of Sicily, counts off on his fin- gers some of the many things he says his is- land lacks: a hub-port to tap into the goods traffic that flows from the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean; an international air- port (“Malta, smaller than the smallest Si- cilian province, has one,” he notes indig- nantly); a modern rail system (large stretches of the existing network are either single-track or unelectrified, or both); and a motorway that fully encircles the triangu- The Sicilians want more lar island (there is a long gap on one side). “Then there is all the social infrastructure has to be spent by the end of 2026. Sicily id backing from the regional authorities. we lack,” he goes on. Top of that list is a has in the past found it hard to devise pro- One reason Cosa Nostra has retreated shortage of nursery schools. jects suitable for eu funding and then from the streets is that it has increasingly Europe’s efforts to recover from co- spend the money it has been given. concentrated on white-collar crime. As vid-19 focus on poorer regions like Sicily. In any event, a worry persists that eu or many investigations have shown, it is still One of the aims of its €750bn recovery state money invested in Sicily will enrich able to muscle in on the allocation of con- fund, currently blocked by Poland and the island’s Mafia, known to affiliates as tracts and has a special penchant for help- Hungary (see Charlemagne) but due to Cosa Nostra (“Our Thing”). In this respect ing itself to eu financing. come on stream next year, is to “level up” there are grounds for optimism. Once the That has prompted the creation of nu- the eu. The Italian government will soon beefiest of Italy’s three main organised- merous laws and regulations which are in- spell out to the European Commission how crime syndicates, Cosa Nostra has been tended to thwart the mobsters’ infiltration it wants to spend its share of the loans and losing ground since the 1990s to the Ca- of the legal economy but which also slow grants on offer—more than a quarter of the morra, which operates in and around Na- down the approval of public investment total, says the prime minister, Giuseppe ples, and to the Calabrian ’Ndrangheta. projects. Mr Musumeci argues that the pre- Conte. Last month, Sicily’s regional gov- Since the early 1990s police and prosecu- cautions have become excessive. He wants ernment sent Rome a list of schemes it tors have relentlessly pursued it. Under Mr the central government to simplify the pro- hopes will qualify for funding. But al- Musumeci, a former president of Sicily’s cedures for being granted the eu’s funds. though the island’s needs are great, the eu anti-Mafia commission, they have had sol- “We can’t not look to the future,” he says. 7 scheme may not help to satisfy them. Most of the projects the regional gov- ernment wants for the island are large- France and Germany scale, long-term and designed to fulfil rela- tively basic requirements. But the condi- War of words tions attached to the eu’s main recovery fund prioritise schemes that are “smart”, green and can be completed quite fast. Vin- cenzo Provenzano, who teaches economics at the university of Palermo, worries that the regional government’s aims may be too BERLIN AND PARIS The imminent Biden presidency reawakens the European defence debate ambitious and that it ought to focus more on the potential of the eu’s promised Green mmanuel macron does not shy from Franco-German link. Usually leaders try to Deal. “If we want to have immediate ef- Econtroversy. But the French president’s avoid making disagreements personal, and fects, we need to work on areas where Sicily recent dig at Annegret Kramp-Karren- work through them in private. This time, has a comparative advantage,” he says. Or- bauer, Germany’s defence minister, was the spat is out in the open. As Europeans ganic farming, which Sicily has a lot of, is a sharp. Earlier this month she wrote: “Illu- prepare for an American presidency under perfect example. sions of European strategic autonomy Joe Biden, it has exposed old cracks within Other doubts over Sicily’s capacity to must come to an end.” Since “strategic au- the European Union over how far Europe benefit from this unique opportunity have tonomy” is a centrepiece of Mr Macron’s should, or could, do more to defend itself. a longer history. The island’s bureaucracy European ambitions, he did not hold back. Under Donald Trump, Mr Macron edged is notoriously sluggish. It may struggle to Calling her views a “historical misinterpre- the European debate in his direction. An meet the deadlines set for having access to tation”, he added pointedly: “Fortunately, if American president with undisguised con- the eu’s funds: 70% of the money has to be I understood things correctly, the chancel- tempt for nato helped focus European committed, with contracts awarded and lor does not share this point of view.” minds, and prompted concerns about the signed, by the end of 2022, the remaining Franco-German differences are not just solidity of the American security guaran- 30% within the year after. The entire fund normal; they are the basis of the post-war tee. In terms of capacity, European defence 1 46 Europe The Economist November 28th 2020

2 does not yet add up to much. An alphabet Poland soup of embryonic security programmes focuses on new co-operation mechanisms, rather than step-changes in Europe’s abili- Disco populism ty to handle collective defence. Yet France and Germany now agree that Europe must WARSAW The ruling party pays homage to rural music do more. German defence spending, though a smaller share of gdp than in ove, love in Zakopane. We’re show- thirds of Poles—and 80% of them in rural France, has been growing steadily since “Lering ourselves in champagne. I am areas—say they enjoy it. “Love in Zako- 2015. A common eu military-strategy docu- the knight, and you, queen of the night.” pane” has had 226m views on YouTube. ment will be concluded under France’s eu The balding singer with a stubby mous- Disco polo bands now perform at presidency in 2022. A new poll finds that tache and sequined blazer slid across the venues such as Warsaw’s Palace of Cul- 51% of Germans think Europe should grow stage. It was a chilly New Year’s Eve in ture and Science and London’s o2 Arena. more independent of America. There is 2018, but the crowd of 60,000 sang along In September a school in Michalowo, in deepening European co-operation in a in the resort town of Zakopane in the eastern Poland, launched the country’s counter-terrorism operation in the Sahel, foothills of the Tatra mountains. Another first class aimed at making a career in albeit with American intelligence backing. 8m Poles watched the public broadcast- disco polo. This year’s inaugural class of So why do France and Germany appear er’s flagship concert from home, triple 27 highschoolers is coached in singing to be talking past one another? Mr Macron the peak viewing figures of its rival tele- and dancing, and learns the technical- has neither called for America to withdraw vision stations. ities of sound systems. The minister of from Europe, nor suggested that nato is Disco polo, a musical genre once education at the time commended it: “superfluous”, as Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer relegated to country wedding band- “Maybe it’ll catch on.” The town is build- has hinted. He sees beefing up European stands, has strutted onto the main stage. ing a disco-polo museum. defence as a response to a pre-Trump Created in rural Poland in the late1980s, Polish politicians have long sucked American pivot to Asia, and stresses that it it blends folk tunes with drum machines up to disco-polo fans. Back in the presi- should be “complementary” to nato. In and synthesisers, often with saucy lyrics. dential campaign of1995, the two front- Germany the deeper divide is not between “Polka Dot Knickers”, a hit song in1995, runners were both backed by disco-polo pro-nato Atlanticists and pro-Europeans; offended many sensibilities. But the artists. But the patronage afforded to but between those, like Ms Kramp-Karren- genre has bounced back. Almost two- musicians under the ruling Law and bauer, who encourage difficult domestic Justice party is quite new. Earlier this conversations about defence spending and year tvp, Poland’s public broadcaster, military capabilities, and those who would released a hagiography of the disco-polo prefer to ignore the subject. If Mr Macron doyen, Zenek Martyniuk. After singing worries that a Biden administration will along at one of his concerts, the station’s induce the German establishment back boss, a Law and Justice politician, said it into deep strategic sleep, Ms Kramp-Kar- was time to end “the hypocrisy and pre- renbauer ought to be among his closest al- tence that this is an inferior genre”. lies in Berlin, not the subject of his barbs. The ruling party has good reason to The difficulty may stem partly from lan- indulge disco polo’s enthusiasts—they guage. Mr Macron uses “European sover- are its core supporters. In last year’s eignty” and “strategic autonomy” almost parliamentary elections it got roughly interchangeably, sometimes to cover twice the vote-share in rural regions, the broader industrial and technological inde- heartland of the simple tunes, as it did in pendence. Yet full defence sovereignty big cities. tvp has denounced any poli- means a great deal more than merely Eu- ticians or cultural gurus who sneer at rope’s ability to act autonomously, for ex- disco polo as out of touch with “ordin- ample to resolve a limited regional crisis. ary” Poles. After its record-breaking As Mr Macron pointed out in a speech to viewing figures for the New Year’s Eve the Bundestag in 2018: “In France, ‘sover- concert in 2019 starring Mr Martyniuk, eignty’ is a common term; in Germany I the station ran a gloating segment: “The know it can cause surprise, even fear.” pseudo-elites are jealous.” Many Germans also resist Mr Macron’s em- phasis on “strategic autonomy”, preferring to talk about the “European pillar of nato” countries’ defence cultures is just extreme- transatlantic security ties. The defence in order to avoid ambiguity about Ameri- ly hard to bridge. Defence, says Claudia Ma- minister of Poland has intervened in the ca’s security role in Europe. jor of the German Institute for Internation- spat to say he agrees with the Germans (as There is also old distrust in Berlin (and al and Security Affairs, remains the has Spain’s prime minister). elsewhere in the eu) about French inten- “problem child”. France has a tradition of If Europeans accept the need to “do tions. Some officials see in Mr Macron an military intervention and the use of expe- more” for their own defence, they have yet old-style Gaullist wrapping French inter- ditionary force (and boasts nuclear weap- to agree on what this means. The idea of ests in a European flag. They suspect him of ons); Germany’s culture of military re- partial defence autonomy commands wide seeking to undermine nato and substitute straint is as strong as ever, and politicians and growing support, but not when cou- French leadership in Europe for American struggle to articulate a national strategic pled with the more ambitious and pricey influence. Others appreciate Mr Macron’s interest. Where France instinctively sees idea of total sovereignty in defence. In- energy but find his unilateralism exhaust- threats to Europe’s south, Germans look stead of a war of words, Europeans must ing—and sometimes counter-productive, eastward—and take seriously scepticism work out what capabilities they need and as in Libya or the eastern Mediterranean. towards Mr Macron from eastern Euro- when, and how to pay for them—no matter Above all, the gulf between the two peans who balk at any hint of weakening who is president in America. 7 The Economist November 28th 2020 Europe 47 Charlemagne Newtonian Europe

Hungary and Poland discover that the laws of physics apply to eu politics too cess if any compromise goes too far. The rule-of-law legislation is narrowly defined. Some countries wanted a far more wide-ranging tool, which would hit governments in their wallets if they tram- pled on the rights of minorities or gay people. A nuclear option being discussed in a stage whisper by dip- lomats (and bellowed by meps) would involve other countries sim- ply bypassing the two countries and issuing the debt without them. This would banish Hungary and Poland to an outer circle of the continent. Such strategies have been used before. David Cam- eron, then the British prime minister, found himself outwitted in 2011when he refused to sign off on a treaty change without regula- tory guarantees for the City of London. His fellow leaders went around him. Mr Cameron’s failure offers a lesson in how not to deal with Brussels, which Warsaw and Budapest would do well to heed if they want to guarantee their place in the bloc. Oddly enough, voters in both countries are strongly Europhile, despite electing governments that enjoy fighting eu institutions. Once the eu’s rule-of-law tool has come into force, inertia may become the friend of Hungary and Poland, rather than their foe. Any punishment for trampling on the rule of law would have to be approved by a qualified majority of member states. On paper, this improves on the current system. At the moment, a country can be nertia is isaac newton’s first law of motion. “Every body per- fined and/or stripped of its voting rights for violating the rule of Iseveres in its state of rest, or of uniform motion in a right line un- law only if all 26 other governments agree. Since Hungary and Po- less it is compelled to change that state by forces impressed there- land have each other’s backs, such a move is impossible. In prac- on,” wrote Newton in 1687. It is the first law of the eu, too: things tice, the new measures may still struggle to be invoked. Hungary stay as they are, until a big enough force shoves them to change. and Poland are far from the only countries nervous about eu bud- The covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing recession gave the bloc an get payments being linked to good behaviour. Corruption allega- almighty push. Over the summer eu leaders agreed to issue collec- tions swirl in Bulgaria. High-profile murders of investigative jour- tive debt at scale for the first time, to the tune of €750bn ($890bn). nalists in Malta and Slovakia have shaken both countries in recent After five days of talks, all 27 heads of government agreed that any- years. Cyprus sells passports. Croatian authorities are accused of one spending eu money would have to abide by some form of “rule beating up refugees at the border. It is not just a case of honour of law” stipulations. among thieves. eu leaders are reluctant to interfere in the domes- Hungary and Poland are learning the hard way about introduct- tic affairs of others for the simple reason that they fear they could ory physics: once things get going, they are hard to stop. The two be next. In such circumstances, abstention is appealing. countries have belatedly teamed up to try and scupper the scheme, Unlike rules of physics, rules of politics can be bent. The danger arguing that the rule-of-law mechanism goes too far. They have is that the new mechanism will become another Stability and reason to fear a crackdown. Both governments have trampled on Growth Pact, the bloc’s oft-maligned but usually ignored rules on democratic norms in recent years, nobbling judges, thwarting government spending. According to the pact, eu countries are ex- journalists and using the state to hobble rivals. There is little Hun- pected to keep their deficits below 3% of gdp in any given year and gary and Poland can do to stop the new rules coming in, since they their debts below 60% of gdp. Even in good times, these targets can be approved by a qualified majority. Instead, they have vetoed were missed, but consequences were few. Technically countries other policies. Both have refused to sign off the eu’s budget, which could be fined. None ever was. To critics, the rule-of-law mecha- is worth about €1trn of spending over seven years, and withheld nism is a very European compromise: strict rules (to placate sup- permission for the eu to push on with disbursing the €750bn re- porters) which are never enforced (to placate opponents). covery fund, until the rule-of-law scheme is watered down. Leverage is the stuff of politics as well as physics. At first glance, Errors are not in the art but in the artificers holding €1.8trn of funding hostage seems a strong lever to pull. Procedures for reining in misbehaving member states will do little Economies in southern Europe are gasping for the cash. But it is a if no one has the guts to use them. Fundamentally, dealing with kamikaze attack. eu funds to Hungary and Poland were worth rogue eu governments is a question of political courage. Big coun- 4.5% and 3% of those countries’ gdp respectively in 2019. It is their tries, such as Germany, have allowed political alliances to trump own economies they are most in danger of damaging for the sake principles. Over the past decade, the Hungarian prime minister, of a law they cannot stop from being introduced. Some are inter- Viktor Orban, has reshaped the Hungarian state from within the preting the move as a warning shot. If Hungary and Poland are comfort of the European People’s Party, in which Angela Merkel’s trampled over, a bureaucratic dirty war will commence, with both Christian Democrats also sit. Belated action on Poland—a far more countries blocking everything they can. important country for the future of Europe—came only after its But Newton’s third law also has a role in eu politics: every ac- government had already stacked its constitutional court. The tion has an equal and opposite reaction. Other countries have ve- bloc’s failure to act has had consequences. Other countries are toes over the budget process. Some like the Netherlands, which sliding in a similar direction and will not stop unless some force has a reputation for being a stickler for rules, could block the pro- impresses thereon. Inertia, after all, is a mighty thing. 7 SUBSCRIBER ONLY LIVE DIGITAL EVENT

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Also in this section 50 The pothole problem 51 Covid-19 vaccines 52 Making farming greener 54 Bagehot: Sunak’s secret self

Public spending alition. That became clear in the spending review Rishi Sunak, the chancellor of the A combustible mix exchequer, announced on November 25th. The economy, he said, would shrink by 11.3%—the biggest contraction in 300 years. The spending plans reflect both the de- mands that the emergency has placed on the public sector (see chart 1 on next page) This week’s spending review shows how a combination of covid-19 and Boris and the government’s political priorities. Johnson’s promises are straining public finances A lot of money is being spent on keeping ichard holden is proving expensive. ing, says Mr Holden. “I want to be able to go mps such as Mr Holden happy. The govern- RIn the election last December, he be- to the next election and say we’ve delivered ment knows that the Labour Party cannot came the first Conservative to represent this, we’ve had progress on this, and this is return to power without winning back the seat of North West Durham, a sprawling in the pipeline. It’s the fling versus the mar- their seats. Those mps are relentless lobby- constituency of farms and former mining riage question—we have to show real com- ists, organised around a caucus known as towns, since it was created in 1950. Since mitment to our towns and villages.” the Northern Research Group. Partly in or- then he has been promised a new hospital, The manifesto on which Mr Johnson der to pay for their shopping lists, public and in March won a tax-cut for motor- won was written in sunnier times. It bound sector net investment will hover just below homes which will benefit the local camper- together a wide Conservative coalition 3% of gdp in the years after the crisis, high- van factory and cost the exchequer £25m a with the glue of low borrowing costs and er than in all but two years since the 1970s. year over five years. In the spending review benign economic conditions. It promised The bit of the coalition that was thrown on November 25th, the government said it to “level up” the gap between southern overboard this week was the shrinking would conduct a study into replacing a rail- England and seats such as Mr Holden’s band of liberals. They were outraged when way which was shut in 1963. Mr Holden is with a flood of spending on roads and rail- Mr Sunak said he would, after all, abandon also eyeing government funds for a new ways, hospitals and green energy. Yet this Britain’s foreign-aid commitment. David bus network, some new footpaths and cy- would be done without hiking payroll tax- Cameron, the former prime minister who cle ways, better broadband and a new lei- es and vat—a red line for Mr Johnson’s ex- enshrined that commitment in law, had sure centre. isting stock of southern Tories—and while embraced development as part of a “com- Boris Johnson is keen to please Mr cutting the national debt. Britain’s com- passionate conservatism” agenda. Liz Holden, for his seat is one of the so-called mitment to spend 0.7% of gdp on foreign Sugg, a development minister and former “red wall” formerly Labour constituencies aid would stay, despite its unpopularity aide to Mr Cameron, quit. in northern England, the Midlands and with Tory activists, to keep the party’s How much further the coalition is Wales that flipped blue in the general elec- dwindling liberal wing happy. strained depends largely on the prospects tion. If people there are to stick with the To- Covid-19 will force Mr Johnson to break for recovery. They are highly uncertain. In ries they will need to see their area chang- some of those promises, and strain his co- its forecasts accompanying the review the 1 50 Britain The Economist November 28th 2020

doctrines of Reagan and Roosevelt: steep A mountain of money 1 tax cuts and big spending on infrastruc- Britain, cumulative policy response to coronavirus by announcement date, 2020, £bn ture, funded by cheap borrowing. 300 The government can take confidence from the fact that, despite massive borrow- Business support 250 ing, which will reach a peacetime record of Employment support 19% of gdp this year, low interest rates Loans and guarantees 200 Public services mean that the cost of servicing its debt will Other tax support 150 fall this year. Yet despite the appetite for Welfare spending spending in its new seats, the Conservative 100 Party does not like borrowing. The party’s foot-soldiers view the public purse like a 50 household’s finances, while mps worry that 0 the public finances are vulnerable if inter- Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov est rates do rise. Source: OBR There are sound tactical reasons for tak- ing this view, too. The Tories have kept the Labour Party out of office for a decade by 2 Office for Budget Responsibility, a fiscal which will be toughest for poor areas. That maintaining that only they can control watchdog, set out three scenarios in which risks leaving Mr Johnson vulnerable to the public spending. If voters come to believe the economy regains its pre-pandemic size charge of a return to austerity in his new, that governments can borrow without lim- at the end of 2021, 2022 and 2024 respec- working-class seats. A £20-a-week in- its, Mr Sunak warns mps, there is no reason tively, depending on the path of the virus crease in unemployment benefits put in for them not to vote Labour. Even red-wal- and the success of the vaccine. So severe place during the pandemic will be re- lers like Mr Holden see the case for pru- and strange has the shock to the economy viewed in the new year. dence. “The worst thing we could possibly been that “there is no reasonable basis for Beyond that lie harder choices, which do is make irresponsible promises to peo- forming a view on the likelihood of any will upset other bits of the coalition. Its ple, which we can never deliver on,” he particular outcome,” it warned. southern mps in particular are allergic to says. Uniting a disparate coalition of old The public finances are equally hard to tax rises, and are mobilising to warn Mr Su- and new Tories was possible in good times. predict, with projected budget deficits in nak against touching taxes on profits, capi- After covid-19, a government forced to 2025-26 ranging from 1.7% to 6.1% of gdp tal gains or pensions. David Davis, a former choose between spending, taxes and debt (see chart 2). And that is without taking Brexit secretary, has urged him to fuse the will find it much harder. 7 into account the possible effect of complet- ing the transition out of the European Un- ion in January. A “no deal” exit would wors- Potholes en those forecasts. The range of possible paths for the economy next year is simply Revolutionary roads enormous. Mr Sunak warned that fiscal consolida- tion may eventually be necessary. He tight- ened the spigots only slightly, but those measures hint at rows to come. Public-sec- tor workers, other than those in the Na- Britain has a massive pothole problem. Help is at hand tional Health Service and the lowest paid, will see their pay frozen for a year—mean- ast december, councillors Bob Smyth- cuts in the wake of the financial crisis did ing a real-terms cut once inflation is taken Lerman and Martin McCabe threw a not help. The Local Government Associa- into account. Local authorities will get less birthday party—not for a friend, a relation tion (lga) says road maintenance budgets from the government in grants, making or a celebrity, but for a pothole. Cars in fell from £1.1bn in 2009 to £701m in 2017— them more reliant on council-tax revenue, Worthing, West Sussex, had been bumping the equivalent of 8m potholes. The Asphalt over it for a full two years, despite pleas that Industry Alliance claims there is a road-re- it be mended. The stunt worked. The fol- pair backlog of £11bn. Clear as mud 2 lowing day it was filled in, and a second But there may be relief in sight for the Britain, public-sector net borrowing, % of GDP party—a lavish affair, with cake and can- suspension of the British motor car. Poli- 25 dles—marked its demise. But plenty of its tics is one reason. Traditional Tories—who fellows survive. Mr Smytherman says the love cars, particularly fast ones, and tend to FORECAST 20 town has so many craters, it’s like “walking live in the countryside, so rely on roads— Pessimistic scenario on the moon”. are particularly infuriated by them. North- 15 Potholes arouse passions in Britain— ern “red wall” seats that the Tories won Forecast not surprisingly, since the country’s road from Labour in the last election tend to be made in Nov 2020 10 quality ranks 37th in the world, between rural places where the roads are bumpier Slovenia and Lithuania. Councils received and the weather worse. Nottinghamshire, Actual Optimistic scenario 5 700,000 complaints about potholes last home to several of those contested seats, is year, says the Federation of Small Business- Britain’s pothole capital, with 253,920 re- Mar 2020 0 es. The weather, a topic even more popular ported in 2017-19. Hence the promise in the 2003 10 15 20 25 among the natives than potholes, is mostly Tory manifesto of the “biggest-ever pot- to blame. Potholes form when water seeps hole-filling programme”, and a promise of Fiscal years beginning April Source: OBR under the road surface, breaking the tar- £2.5bn over five years. mac as it expands and contracts. Budget Covid is also fuelling the drive against 1 The Economist November 28th 2020 Britain 51

Covid-19 vaccines much of the flu campaign, since few sur- geries have sufficiently icy freezers. But the Emergency exit AstraZeneca vaccine can be kept at 8°C. Around half of the vaccines will be de- livered in the community, the other half in mass vaccination centres. They will spring up in places like hospitals, sports halls and universities. Paramedics, physiotherapists The vaccine roll-out should go better and student medics will be called upon to than the pandemic management staff them. So, too, may vets, dentists and ots of space and vinyl flooring—that is trained volunteers, for whom the govern- Lwhat local directors of public health ment has tweaked human medicines regu- want. “The last time you went into an nhs lation to allow them to administer jabs. appointment...the floor would have been a All of this is a big ask for the nhs at a certain type of splash-proof vinyl in case time of year when it is normally most you bled all over it or threw up,” says one. It stretched. This year’s expanded flu vaccine is the sort of floor a mass vaccination cen- campaign suffered from distribution pro- tre requires. blems. gps are in discussions with nhs The search for suitable venues has just leadership about what parts of their job can become more urgent. On November 23rd be put on hold to allow them to focus on the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine team an- vaccination. “We would want to protect pa- nounced positive results (though there are tient-facing services,” says Steve Mowle of some concerns about the data—see Science the Royal College of General Practitioners. section). A cheap, transportable vaccine Perhaps the biggest challenge will be Verging on dangerous would be good news for the world. It would the it system. It will need to contact people also be good news for Britain, and not just at the right time for their first and second 2 potholes. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, because it would be the product of a British jabs, and to integrate information with needs shovel-ready spending opportuni- university and an Anglo-Swedish firm. medical records. This is important, says ties to justify his claim in the spending re- The government has ordered 40m Penny Ward of the Faculty of Pharmaceuti- view on November 25th that “we’re priori- doses of vaccine from Pfizer and 5m from cal Medicine, a professional body, so that tising jobs”. Potholes are ready and waiting Moderna, the two other firms to have an- analysts can trawl the records for unidenti- for those shovels—hence his commitment nounced phase-three-trial results. Both re- fied side effects. Not all are optimistic. A that £1.7bn would be spent this year. quire two doses per person. It has ordered scientist advising the government says he Innovation should help get the job 100m from AstraZeneca, which may need cannot think of anything since the start of done. Rubberised asphalt is spreading just one-and-a-half. If all are approved, the the pandemic “where we relied on digital across the nation’s roads. Adding shredded AstraZeneca vaccine would thus accelerate support and it happened in a timely way”. tyres to the bitumen used to make asphalt the country’s journey to herd immunity. In a programme of this scale, things will creates an elasticity that helps it mould That approval is in the hands of Britain’s almost certainly go wrong. But if enough into the existing road and stops it breaking medicines regulator, the mhra, which is goes right, there is a glittering prize on of- down as easily. Tarmac, a materials com- reviewing data from all three firms. Astra- fer. By spring, vaccination and increased pany, is supplying it to several councils. Zeneca had planned to have 30m doses testing “should reduce the need for eco- Sheffield council is trying out a simpler ready by September; it missed that target, nomic and social restrictions”, in the version, designed by another company, but is expected to have tens of millions words of Boris Johnson. “We should be able Roadmender Asphalt. Cumbria is experi- ready when approval is granted. One insid- to render obsolete the very notion of a co- menting with recycled plastic as a bitumen er says the hope is to deliver 5m jabs a week vid-19 lockdown.” 7 substitute, and in Oxfordshire and Kent by mid-January. “Gipave”, a material made from adding a The Joint Committee on Vaccination graphene-based additive to asphalt, is be- and Immunisation, which advises the gov- ing used to resurface entire roads. It is ernment, has drawn up a prioritisation list, 15-20% more expensive than asphalt but with care-home residents and workers at has twice the lifespan. the top, followed by the over-80s and Repair design may help, too. Potholes health-care workers. The mhra will proba- are normally repaired by cutting squares bly at first offer an emergency-use authori- out of the asphalt around them, but corners sation, which may restrict vaccination to encourage water ingress, so Roadmole, a the most at-risk until more evidence is in. small road-repairing firm, produces a re- The British state’s lacklustre response motely controlled machine that cuts circu- to the covid-19 pandemic provides plenty lar holes instead. The firm claims that none of reason for trepidation about the roll-out. of the potholes they have fixed in the past But unlike the testing programme or track- eight years has needed to be redone. and-trace, the National Health Service will In order to innovate, councils need be running things, removing the need to cash. David Renard, the lga’s transport set up a leadership structure and local spokesman, says the government’s bung organisation from scratch. will help fix the backlog. But the supply of It is not an entirely new exercise for the candidates for repair never dries up. Back health service. Britain dishes out nearly in Worthing, Mr Smytherman says that his 15m flu jabs a year. The need to store the celebrated pothole is beginning to reap- Pfizer vaccine at -70°C limits the role of pear. Another party looms. 7 general practitioners (gps) who deliver Arming the nation 52 Britain The Economist November 28th 2020

vative”, says Helen Radmore, a tenant farmer in Devon. Sales—forced or other- wise—are rare. Last year 47,000 hectares were publicly marketed for sale in Britain, according to Savills. That is just 0.3% of the total agricultural area. Although the cap has been good for many farmers, the environment has suf- fered. Large, unbroken fields are inhospita- ble to many kinds of wildlife. The zealous eradication of weeds and the move from spring to autumn planting of wheat means little food is available for scavengers in winter. In 2016 a group of researchers from conservation groups estimated that agri- cultural intensification was the biggest driver of biodiversity loss in Britain since 1970. Urbanisation, invasive species and climate change (to which farming contrib- utes) were all much less harmful. Every year the Royal Society for the Pro- tection of Birds and the British Trust for Or- nithology ask volunteers to count birds. Those binocular-toting folk report that the population of breeding farmland birds— creatures like corn buntings, goldfinches, lapwings, linnets and skylarks—has fallen Farming after Brexit to 40% of the 1975 level. Farmland birds have disappeared more quickly than wood- Fresh fields and pastures new land or water birds (see chart on next page). Farms need not be ecological deserts. Consider Samuel Topham’s 1,000-hectare farm in Cambridgeshire, east of St Neots. Like other cereal farmers, he grows crops ST NEOTS on huge fields created by his grandfather, a A bold attempt to make farming greener runs into two problems: keen remover of hedges. But in the field politics and sheep corners Mr Topham has planted blocks of he field is in Hertfordshire, but it fallen slightly) as did the land area devoted wild flowers and plants that birds feast on, Tcould be almost anywhere in lowland to wheat. Farmers have become far more such as millet. He has set aside plots for England. It is 600m wide and twice as long. productive, thanks to advances in plant lapwings and skylarks to nest, and has re- On its northern edge is a frail, gappy hedge- and animal breeding and better machines, stored ponds. Red kites hover over his row that would not stop a car, let alone a fertilisers, insecticides and herbicides. farm. Pheasants and partridges peck at the cow. Wheat and broad beans grew in the Fields have grown, partly because, from the ground; they are for shooting. loamy soil during the summer, but the field 1950s, farmers were given grants to demol- Mr Topham does this because it pays— is now almost bare, with scarcely a weed ish hedgerows. “Farmers are often blamed. just about. Reversing a combine into a tight visible. Although you can see for miles, But they do what the government tells field corner takes time, increasing the fee there is little to see—just a few crows and them to do,” says Ian Gould of Oakbank, a that a contractor would charge for harvest- seagulls over a brown desert. company that sells seeds and advice. ing a crop, and compacts the soil. One five- Under the eu’s Common Agricultural The cap has boosted land values, partic- hectare field is not worth ploughing at all; Policy (cap), the farmer of this field is enti- ularly following the switch from produc- other areas are wet and unproductive. tled to an annual subsidy of £233 ($311) per tion subsidies to per-hectare payments in Since the government is prepared to pay hectare. The farm automatically receives as the early 2000s. According to Savills, an es- him for growing flowers and bird food on much support as a small sheep farm in an tate agent, the average price of farmland those patches, he might as well do it. In all, inhospitable hilly region or a beautiful has risen from below £4,500 per hectare to one-tenth of his farm is dedicated to na- Cotswold farm laced with footpaths. Al- about £16,500 since 2003—a better return ture. “I farm the environment,” he says. The most nobody is prepared to argue openly than home-owners have seen. Some buy- idea that farming is simply for producing that Britain ought to continue subsidising ers are enticed by the fact that farms are food he calls “old-fashioned”. such environmental degradation. But, with partly exempt from inheritance tax. About one-eighth of direct support for the country due to leave the cap on January Subsidies also prop up unproductive farming in Britain, some £450m a year, 1st, it still lacks a detailed plan to replace it. farms, of which there are many. The aver- goes on environmental schemes like these. And those who support the status quo are age English farm made a profit on its purely They are complicated and bureaucratic finding their voice. agricultural activities of just £6,200 in the (asked about them, Mr Topham pulls out a Decades of farm subsidies since the sec- 2018-19 fiscal year, before farmers’ unpaid thick binder filled with precise instruc- ond world war have achieved precisely labour was accounted for. Thanks to subsi- tions about how he should manage his what their creators wanted: a huge increase dies, and sidelines such as solar power pro- land) and two-thirds of farmers do not in food production. The number of pigs duction and renting buildings, they stagger bother. But the government promises a and sheep in Britain more than doubled be- on anyway. Subsidies “have enabled farm- simpler, more generous regime. The Agri- tween 1950 and 2000 (since when they have ers to stay where they are and not be inno- culture Act that received royal assent on 1 The Economist November 28th 2020 Britain 53

2 November 11th will allow the agriculture tively an American and a British geogra- department to phase out per-hectare pay- Flaps down pher, in 1965. That is probably still true of ments over the next seven years, and spend Britain, wild bird population, by habitat the English. Although ecologists might not more on public goods such as nature. It has 1975=100 approve, people’s eyes have grown fond of pledged to keep the overall level of support 120 nibbled landscapes. And that is a problem constant during this parliament, which for policymakers. Water and wetland will end in 2024. 100 Jane Bassett farms sheep and cattle on If the government can pull this off, it 73 hectares of the Peak District. The small will profoundly change farming in Eng- Woodland 80 grassy fields on her land are divided by land (Northern Ireland, Scotland and stone walls and scattered with mature Wales, which together have 48% of the Un- 60 trees. She has not applied for any environ- ited Kingdom’s agricultural land, are mov- mental payment schemes, finding them Farmland 40 ing more slowly in a similar direction). too much hassle—“a lot of bureaucracy for Farmland prices will probably fall, as will 20 fourteen hundred pounds”. She argues that rents for tenant farmers, who farm one- she is creating environmental goods all the 1975 80 90 2000 1810 third of the land in England. Some who same. People flock to the area to admire Source: British Trust for Ornithology were surviving on subsidies will be driven and walk in the beautiful landscape and, if out of farming—the agriculture bill allows she is lucky, stay in her bed-and-breakfast. the government to support such people for eu, and therefore in Britain. “That vista”, she says, “is maintained by a few years by means of “de-linked” pay- Amendments to this effect were added having farmers in place.” ments. Biodiversity ought to recover. But by the House of Lords only to be rejected by After many months of work, the Depart- two things stand in the way of change: poli- the Commons. But the campaign is likely to ment for Environment, Food and Rural Af- tics and sheep. revive as Britain gets into trade negotia- fairs has provided scant details of the “en- Ever since an agriculture bill was pub- tions. It is backed by an impressive and di- vironmental land management” payment lished in 2017, farmers’ organisations have verse line-up, from the Mail on Sunday to scheme that will be tested next year and protested that the government is empha- television chefs such as Prue Leith and Ja- fully introduced in 2024. Upland farmers sising greenery more than growing. They mie Oliver to environmental groups like do not believe that the new scheme will have persuaded some mps. “Surely the Greenpeace, and is hugely popular. If noth- provide much money for hard-to-quantify primary public good—the most essential ing else, a campaign that focuses on other public goods such as landscape. If they are good there is—is food itself,” said Danny countries’ dismal environmental stan- right, the grand plan to replace per-hectare Kruger, a Conservative, during a debate ear- dards distracts attention from Britain’s subsidies with green payments could be lier this year. The National Farmers Union own poor record. derailed quickly. argues that the coronavirus pandemic A second problem, which involves up- Upland farmers can plead poverty more shows how important it is for a country to land farms and especially sheep, may prove convincingly than other farmers in Eng- produce its own food. Britain currently even harder to solve. In June last year Brit- land; they may also be able to point to Scot- grows about two-thirds of what it con- ain had 33m sheep and lambs, many of tish and Welsh farmers, who will continue sumes; that share should not be allowed to them destined to be killed and exported to receiving automatic subsidies for longer. fall much further, the nfu says. the eu. In England 30% of them are in hilly They are quite likely to enjoy support from Such arguments “are really specious”, regions classed as “disadvantaged”, which English town-dwellers, who associate says Ian Bateman, a professor of environ- include the Lake District, the Peak District, them with holidays. People care about the mental economics at the University of Exe- Exmoor and Dartmoor—the country’s most environment. But they might turn out to ter. Food is a private good, not a public sublime corners. Farms in these areas are care more about landscape. 7 good. Britain’s food security is guaranteed often economically marginal even with by its wealth and by robust supply chains, subsidies. The average income from agri- which have held up remarkably well during cultural activity alone, before subsidies, in the pandemic. The agriculture bill was severely disadvantaged areas in 2018-19 nonetheless amended during its passage was minus £22,000. through Parliament. The government must Whereas almost everyone can agree now “have regard to the need to encourage about how lowland crop farms ought to the production of food by farmers in Eng- change—to become like Mr Topham’s, only land” and must report every five years on more so—upland livestock farms divide food security. Both changes seem innocu- opinion. Environmentalists such as ous. But they could be used as a wedge that George Monbiot, a campaigning writer, ar- will allow farmers to obtain more support gue that sheep farming is almost invariably for business as usual. destructive, creating deserts of nibbled The nfu has also tried to persuade the grass, and that the land should revert to government to ban imports of food that do scrub and trees. Nonsense, retorts James not meet British animal-welfare or envi- Rebanks, a Lake District shepherd (and a ronmental standards. American chlorine- green after his own fashion) in his book washed chicken and hormone-treated beef “English Pastoral”: “Abandoning farmland are commonly cited as products that isn’t remotely the same thing as restoring a should be excluded on these grounds. But wild ecosystem—plagues of deer replace such a ban, if enacted, could be deployed hordes of sheep and little good is against many other foods. For example, achieved.” Britain currently imports rapeseed (canola, “What people want is countryside easy to Americans) from countries that are al- to walk in and look at, a rough carpet kept lowed to use a group of pesticides known free of messy undergrowth,” observed Da- as neonicotinoids, which are banned in the vid Lowenthal and Hugh Prince, respec- Where sheep may safely overgraze 54 Britain The Economist November 28th 2020 Bagehot Sunak’s secret self

The chancellor’s inner Thatcher is desperate to escape Keynesian mantra is “we’re prioritising jobs” and who reeled off a mind-boggling list of spending commitments. It was also a very political budget. Mr Sunak boasted of the “highest sustained level of public investment in more than 40 years”, repeatedly nodded to manifesto commitments to build more hospitals and increase po- lice numbers, and conveniently scattered his largesse around mar- ginal northern constituencies. But there is another, more ideological Rishi. Mr Sunak may be a social liberal who took his parliamentary oath on a copy of the Bha- gavad Gita, but he is also a chip off the old Thatcherite block, even down to the stories about working in the family shop. His parents were immigrants who scrimped to send him to Winchester Col- lege, one of the country’s best and most expensive schools. He spent his early career in two of the world’s centres of creative de- struction—working for Goldman Sachs in New York and studying business at Stanford University in Silicon Valley. He has the same bullish pride in being British as Margaret Thatcher had. He values the country’s institutions—he describes his time at Winchester (where he was head boy) as “absolutely marvellous”—loves cricket and football, and relishes the rural rituals in his constituency. He came out in favour of leaving the eu in 2015, even though the party establishment was vigorously pro-Remain—a brave position for ishi sunak is one of the most familiar figures in British poli- an ambitious new arrival. Rtics. An assiduous public-relations campaign has ensured that He also has the same ingrained enthusiasm for balancing bud- the newspapers bulge with profiles of him and his photogenic gets and limiting expenditure as the grocer’s daughter had. He family. Pundits speculate about how long it will be before he likes to tell the story of how he learned the rudiments of econom- moves into Number 10. Economic policy is now associated with ics, including the importance of things like National Insurance his skinny suits and easy smile in much the same way that it was and vat rates, by helping his mother do the accounts at her phar- once associated with Gordon Brown’s crumpled clothes and macy when he was still at school. In one of his first speeches in par- grumpy scowl. liament in 2015 he noted that tax receipts had remained at around Yet beyond Mr Sunak’s fabulous wealth and professional com- 36-38% of the economy since 1955 and that this suggested a “natu- petence, not much is known about him. There are several reasons ral ceiling to what any government can extract from the pockets of for this opacity. His rise has been so swift that he has left few its hard-working taxpayers”. In his speech to this year’s virtual traces. In early 2015 he was just another bored banker looking for a Conservative Party conference he vowed to balance the budget in safe Conservative seat. By early 2019 he was a junior local-govern- the medium term and spoke about the “sacred duty” to leave the ment minister dealing with public lavatories. From there he vault- finances strong. ed into Number 11. The Conservative Party’s various factions project what they Showing steel want onto the young chancellor: social liberals see him as one of Which Rishi Sunak will dominate in the long term? While interest their own because he is from an ethnic minority, while right-wing- rates remain low, there will be little pressure for him to balance the ers welcome him as a fellow-Brexiteer. Mr Sunak’s pr team keeps books. Even so, the chancellor’s Thatcherite instincts are likely to the screen as blank as possible. Revelations that he likes “Star play a growing role in shaping British politics. There were flashes Wars” and Christmas songs have not been followed by disclosures of steel in the spending-review announcement. Mr Sunak not only about his philosophy of life or what makes him tick as a politician. froze most public-sector wages and reduced foreign aid from 0.7% But the deeper reason is that Mr Sunak has two warring identities. of gdp to 0.5% (which would have delighted Thatcher). He also re- The first identity is that of a pragmatist who tacks to the politi- duced planned spending: excluding emergency expenditure on cal winds. He got the job of chancellor when his predecessor, Sajid the virus, he cut more than £10bn a year from departmental spend- Javid, fell out with Boris Johnson over plans by the prime minis- ing plans next year. As the economy recovers, the Thatcherite Rishi ter’s now-departed chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, for Number is likely to become more assertive. 10 to seize control of economic policy. As an mp for Richmond, in Mr Cummings’s attempt to grab power from Number 11failed, at North Yorkshire, who campaigned energetically across the North least in part because the Treasury has performed so much better of England in the December election, he is an enthusiastic suppor- than other departments have in the course of the pandemic. Mr Su- ter of the prime minister’s agenda of “levelling up” the country and nak’s reputation in his party and the country has continued to rise consolidating the party’s recent gains in poorer places far from as Mr Johnson’s has sunk. He has also acquired a cohort of influen- London. When the covid-19 crisis broke, he announced that “this is tial supporters among mps as his star has risen. Strong chancellors not the time for ideology and orthodoxy” and that he was willing to have always used their power in the past to shape policy and the do “whatever it takes” to save the country from disaster. His first economy. Nigel Lawson was a joint architect of Thatcherism, and budget represented “the largest sustained fiscal boost for 30 years”. Gordon Brown ran a rival domestic administration to Tony Blair. The spending review which he delivered with his usual aplomb Under Mr Sunak, the ghost of Thatcher, handbag and all, will stalk on November 25th was designed by Rishi-the-pragmatist, whose the corridors of power. 7 International The Economist November 28th 2020 55

Exams and covid-19 they account for only a small portion of students’ final grades. Spain suffered one Testing, testing of Europe’s worst outbreaks and imposed one of its strictest lockdowns. Its universi- ty-entrance exam still went ahead, though it covered less material than usual. Some countries allowed exams to go ahead but with alterations. Italy called off SÃO PAULO AND SEOUL written tests for school-leavers, but al- The pandemic has prompted questions about high-stakes exams lowed an oral examination to proceed. y brother thinks I’m crazy,” says ams. These have revived long-running de- Austria and Hungary did the opposite. In “MMárcia Ramos, a 53-year-old from bates about the fairness of high-stakes America Advanced Placement exams—op- Rio de Janeiro. After losing a job in sales a tests. That could result in changes that last tional courses that some teenagers take to few years ago, Ms Ramos decided to retrain far beyond the pandemic. impress university admissions offices— as a lawyer. She and 6m others are now Many countries have ploughed ahead went online. The papers were shortened to waiting to take the enem, an exam that with big exams. On December 3rd half a 45 minutes and covered only material can- many Brazilian universities use in their ad- million youngsters will sit South Korea’s didates were likely to have studied before missions process. The test should have tak- fearsome matriculation exam. Face-masks they were booted out of their classrooms. en place in November. Because of covid-19 are mandatory. Papers will be brought to Andreas Schleicher, head of education it has been postponed until January. hospitals for any candidate needing treat- at the oecd, a club of mostly rich countries, The free test-prep class Ms Ramos at- ment for covid-19. Pupils lost at least five thinks more countries could have held ex- tends, run by a youth group, has been less weeks of face-to-face learning when the ams safely: “You don’t want people to talk; effective since it went online. So she is re- pandemic closed their classrooms; cram you don’t need them to move around; their lieved to have more time to cram. The delay schools closed, too. But one 18-year-old desks are quite far apart.” So far it appears to the enem has, however, led universities from Seoul does not feel hard done by. that the grades of most pupils who did sit to fill more of their spots for the coming ac- When classes were forced online pupils exams this year have been no worse than ademic year using their own entrance ex- “talked less and studied more”, she says. usual, according to uk naric, a British gov- ams. This is bad news for poorer students In July some 10m people sat the gaokao, ernment agency that keeps track of qualifi- such as Ms Ramos who have less time and China’s school-leavers’ exam. The two-day cations in other countries. Candidates in money to study for several tests. test took place a month late; exam centres Germany performed a little better. School closures have disrupted the edu- set aside quarantine spaces in case candi- Some countries, including Britain, cation of close to 1.5bn pupils since the dates developed symptoms while it was France and Ireland, cancelled exams. That start of the year. Governments have been happening. Provincial governments in had least impact in places where pupils forced to make difficult decisions about Germany also agreed that their school- rack up marks before any final tests. Other whether and how to conduct important ex- leavers’ exams should go ahead, though governments asked teachers to help decide 1 56 International The Economist November 28th 2020

2 students’ grades. These were higher than pils achieved in tests marked blindly. It school system. This year many universities usual, according to data collected by uk found that teachers were more likely to waived that requirement after many exam naric (see chart). To produce results com- give black pupils lower marks than they de- sittings were cancelled. This delighted crit- parable to the previous year’s, Irish moder- served. According to research published in ics of testing, who say the exams advantage ators would have had to lower 60% of the 2019, some teachers in New York state gave richer applicants who can pay for test-prep. grades teachers had suggested for final- worse marks to essays when they were led About 70% of American universities offer- year students registered to sit the most dif- to believe the author was fat. Wealthy par- ing four-year courses now operate “test- ficult papers. They let all but a fifth stand. ents are more likely than poor ones to put optional” admissions policies, up from In France 96% of pupils earned a school- pressure on teachers to boost their chil- around 45% before the pandemic. leaver’s certificate, up from 88% in 2019. dren’s scores. Worries about corruption In England the pandemic has raised Authorities in England were harsher. help explain why exams remain so crucial fresh questions about the future of gcses, a They lowered 40% of the grades teachers to education in China and South Korea. flurry of exams taken by 16-year-olds. had proposed for a-levels (exams taken at Teachers in Britain tend to under-pre- These have become less crucial as a result 18). Outrage ensued. Critics pointed out dict how well clever pupils from poorer of reforms that require teenagers to stay in that the approach moderators had taken backgrounds will perform in exams. In some kind of education or training until risked hurting some children from low- Wales, where results this year were based they are 18. Developing countries have been achieving schools. The government even- on teachers’ predictions, grades rose across gradually junking exams they have tradi- tually agreed that the teacher-suggested the board, but the difference between the tionally used to decide which children may grades would stand; as a result the share of number of rich and poor children receiving enter secondary school. This year’s crisis entries receiving one of the two highest the highest marks was wider than usual in could speed that up. marks has risen from about one-quarter in several subjects, notes Rhian Barrance at But the disruptions of 2020 have made 2019 to more than one-third this year. Mary the University of Cardiff. clear that exams are useful. Some teachers’ Richardson of University College London unions in France argue that inflated grades says the government was “foolish” to think Revising the system of the sort handed out this summer risk be- it could “normalise a completely abnormal Some countries had begun making coming a permanent fixture as a result of situation”. Mr Schleicher from the oecd changes before the pandemic hit. Reforms the government’s efforts to de-emphasise thinks that by both cancelling exams and in France mean that from this year school- exams. Teachers in England did not enjoy abandoning all moderation England ended leavers are supposed to enter their final ex- helping decide who should pass or fail, up with “the worst of all worlds”. ams with 40% of their marks already in the says Lee Elliot Major, a professor of social The muddle has revived long-running bag; previously everything depended on mobility at Exeter University. Many will be debates about the value of exams. A few the tests. A few years ago England moved in pleased when external examiners relieve days or hours of testing is a crude way to as- the opposite direction by abandoning them of that burden. sess students’ performance in courses that coursework and reprioritising end-of- How exams should proceed next year have lasted a year or more. Exams disad- course exams. In 2019 an admissions scan- remains a pressing question. Many coun- vantage clever pupils who deal badly with dal forced South Korea’s government to say tries that closed schools during the early pressure. Relying on them too much can it would review a programme that seeks to months of the pandemic have managed to lead to narrow curricula which include make exam scores less critical to university keep them open during later lockdowns. only things that can be tested affordably. applications. Chinese officials talk end- But lots of children are still having to re- Time spent teaching youngsters strategies lessly about shaking up the gaokao, but turn to stints of remote learning when to maximise their exam scores could other- have only tinkered with it. there are suspicions of infections among wise be spent learning more useful stuff. The pandemic may amplify calls to get their peers. In October secondary-school Some psychologists worry that the pres- rid of exams that some already thought un- attendance rates ranged from a little over sure of exams is raising the risk that vul- necessary. Universities in America tradi- 60% in some areas of England to more than nerable youngsters will develop mental- tionally ask applicants to sit the sat or act, 90% in others. They are lowest in places health problems, early signs of which often tests which are not required by the public that already had lots of poor children. In appear during adolescence and early adult- mid-November education authorities in hood. Exams can also label children as fail- Wales cancelled school-leavers’ exams set ures, when they had no choice but to attend Positive test results for next spring. Politicians said it would be bad schools. And rich parents often pay for Grade distributions unfair to require youngsters to sit a com- tutoring to boost their offspring’s chances. mon exam, given that the pandemic has af- Yet abandoning exams creates new pro- Britain*, A-level, as % of all passes fected them in different ways. blems. Continuous assessment means pu- 100806040200 Sandra Milligan of Melbourne Universi- pils may simply “learn stuff, get a grade and 2020 A ty thinks officials in the Australian state of then forget it”, says Dylan William, a British 2019 E Victoria have found “the disaster” in Eng- expert in educational assessment. Course- 2018 land helpful in working out “what not to work can encourage students to tinker do” with their own tests. Final exams are endlessly with just a few pieces of work. France, Diplôme du baccalauréat général going ahead there, even though pupils have As % of all passes Junking exams only introduces new kinds endured long lockdowns. Those who score of stress if the alternative is that all school- 100806040200 unusually poorly may have their grades work counts towards final grades. Without 2020 Très bien Passable raised using a system similar to one that 2019 objective assessments, learners from poor has long benefited candidates who suffer homes are more likely to be judged on their illness or trauma. Ms Milligan would like Ireland, Leaving Certificate†, % backgrounds than on their actual achieve- to see examinations become less central to 100806040200 ments. H8 Victoria’s school system, but opposed Teachers sometimes show bias when 2020 H1 those who saw this year’s crisis as an op- 2019 marking pupils’ work. A study of 11-year- 2018 portunity to rush out changes. Half-cocked olds in England compared the grades school reforms risk hurting those “who can Source: UK NARIC *Excludes Scotland †At Higher Level teachers awarded with scores the same pu- least look after themselves”. 7 Business The Economist November 28th 2020 57

Live events looks as if those that have had the hardest time in 2020 will emerge least scathed The roar of the crowd when things get back to normal—whereas those that have found ways to adapt may find that the temporary fixes cause long- lasting disruption. Hardest hit has been the exhibitions in- dustry, which makes up nearly two-thirds of the crowds sector’s market value. Ac- How social distancing is changing the business of getting people together cording to amr International, a consultan- his month Britain’s National Exhibi- sands of fans roaring their support. Al- cy, its global revenues will contract by two- Ttion Centre (nec), the country’s largest though stockmarkets have mostly re- thirds this year, to $9bn (see chart 2). The events venue, was due to host shows in- couped their losses since January, the outlook is so uncertain that amr’s analysts cluding Motorcycle Live, Simply Christmas market capitalisation of listed “crowds have not hazarded an estimate for next and Cake International. Yet instead of be- businesses” identified by The Economist year’s revenues. ing filled with bikes, toys and Sachertorte, has sunk from $234bn to $183bn (see chart 1 Take the colossal trade-fair centre in the space has been fitted with 380 hospital on next page). Hanover, the size of 60 football pitches. It beds. Covid-19 has wiped out the planned Some live-events industries are dealing closed in March and has been empty most exhibitions, tipped the nec’s management with the crowds problem more easily than of the time since. Deutsche Messe, which company into restructuring and caused the others. But as the pandemic grinds on, it runs it, was expecting revenues of €330m government to turn one of its halls into an ($392m) this year; Andreas Gruchow, a emergency field hospital. member of its managing board, says that it Also in this section Social-distancing rules have forced all will end up with about €100m, partly from businesses to think hard about how to keep 59 A new biblio-behemoth events it has run in China, which has con- their customers safely apart. But for events trolled covid-19 better than America or Eu- 59 Fading Black Friday companies the rules pose a particular pro- rope. A few events have been held in Hano- blem, for these firms’ purpose is to bring 60 Baidu and bots ver, following new rules mandating masks, people together. Trade shows and confer- a reduced headcount and so on. But exhibi- 60 The diversity industry ences lose their value if those attending tors “expect the whole world to come to cannot mingle. Concerts are no fun alone. 61 Bartleby: Winter is coming Hanover and visit them at their booth”, ob- And the excitement of a goal, slam dunk or serves Mr Gruchow; with international tra- 62 Schumpeter: The climate centurion home run is not the same without thou- vel on hold, the big fairs are not happening.1 58 Business The Economist November 28th 2020

2 Organisers have dabbled online with ruption that may last. The cost of forgone limited success. Some exhibitions, like ticket revenue has been borne unevenly. In Exhibit A 2 Cake International, are best enjoyed in per- the main American leagues teams keep the Worldwide* trade-show revenues, $bn son. Even the liveliest Zoom panels lack the income from tickets—and the drinks, hot 30 opportunities for networking that justify dogs and so on that go with them—whereas FORECAST many conferences’ eye-popping admis- leagues get the proceeds of national broad- Other sion price. Exhibitors pay a four- or five- casting rights. So teams are on the rack. France Britain 20 figure fee for a spot in one of Deutsche Major League Baseball, with its long season Germany Messe’s online trade fairs, says Mr Gru- and relatively modest tv deals, is in bigger China chow; for a physical booth at Hanover they trouble than the National Football League, would pay up to €300 per square metre, which has fewer games and pricier tv 10 United leading to seven-figure bills for the largest rights. The New York Mets, a struggling States participants. baseball team that was sold last month, is Yet trade fairs’ digital clunkiness will expected to lose out on nearly $250m in 0 protect the industry from disruption. “You ticket sales this year. 2019 20 22 can’t ‘Amazon’ the events business,” points The pandemic has also accelerated *Top 20 markets; Source: AMR International 2021 forecast not available out Marcus Diebel of JPMorgan Chase, a changes in how people watch sports at bank. He cites this as a reason for long- home. The lack of crowds has contributed term optimism about the industry. relx, to a fall in viewership of full games, as fans This suggests that live-music compa- owner of Reed Exhibitions, the world’s sec- switch to highlights and new formats. The nies can outlive the pandemic. The giants ond-largest exhibitions company by sales, National Basketball Association (nba) should have no problem. Live Nation has saw its revenues fall by 70% year on year in highlights show on Snapchat, a social app, nearly $1bn of cash and the same again the first half of 2020, but its share price is has had 37% more viewers this year, even as in undrawn debt facilities, comfortably down only 8% since January. That of Infor- American television ratings for the nba fi- enough to see it through to next summer. ma, the largest, has shot up by a third this nals fell by 49%. People are spending more But many smaller operators will not make month, as successful late-stage trials of co- time on betting sites and forums like Bar- it. America’s National Independent Venue vid-19 vaccines have been reported. stool Sports, says Brandon Ross of Light- Association says that 90% of its 2,900 Organisers agree that future events will Shed Partners, a media-research firm. members expect to close permanently have more digital elements. But a dire cou- “There are millennials and Gen z-ers who without a bail-out. Live Nation will get a ple of years are likely to give way to some- would rather just sit and watch the Barstool chance to sweep them up, entrenching its thing much like the old normal. amr ex- personalities pontificate...than watch the dominant position. pects revenues to rebound to 78% of last games themselves,” he says. That does not mean the live-music in- year’s level by 2022. The decline in whole-game viewing dustry will escape disruption. Early in the bodes ill for the big sports broadcasters. pandemic artists, who these days make Pitch-dark espn, owned by Disney, announced this more money from touring than recording, The opposite is true in sport, another month that it was cutting 500 jobs amid performed amateurish streaming concerts crowd-dependent business. After a pause “tremendous disruption in how fans con- from makeshift home studios. Online gigs in the spring, most professional leagues sume sports”. Its chairman, Jimmy Pitaro, have since become more professional with have managed to play on, getting round the said the company would now focus on the help of companies such as Driift and lack of spectators in novel ways. fc Seoul “serving sports fans in a myriad of new Dice, which organise elaborate streamed populated its stadium with mannequins ways”; some written and audio content has productions. from a sex-toy supplier (and in the process gone behind its paywall. Tickets are much cheaper than those for earned a fine from the South Korean foot- Lower whole-game audiences will in-person gigs—entry to an online show ball league for indecency). Others have translate into lower advertising revenues this month by Dua Lipa, a British singer, piped in sound, added cardboard cut-outs for broadcasters and, ultimately, lower cost €12.99, about a quarter of the mini- or cgi spectators. Some have even live- budgets for rights deals, “the overwhelm- mum that fans used to have to pay to see streamed fans’ faces onto screens in the ing financial engine for sports”, warns Mr her in real life. But there is no limit to ca- stands, as in wwe wrestling’s new “Thun- Ross. These trends will persist long after pacity. And stars can attract concertgoers derDome” in Florida. covid-19 is defeated. in places where they would never tour. bts, Yet the smooth transition disguises dis- If the exhibitions industry looks stable a South Korean boy band, staged an online and sport is heading for disruption, live concert last month which brought in al- music combines both trends. Coronavirus most 1m viewers from 191countries. Thinning 1 has pulled the plug on concerts. Live Na- Crowd-event firms, market capitalisation tion, the world’s biggest live-entertain- A different tune Worldwide, by speciality, $bn ment company, reported this month that There are also glimpses of completely new its revenues plummeted by 95% in the forms of entertainment. In April Travis January 1st 2020 November 25th 2020 third quarter, compared with a year ago. Scott, an American rapper, appeared in vir- 200150100500 cts Eventim, a European rival, saw its sales tual form in Fortnite, an online video game. Conventions & slide by 79% in the first nine months of Some 28m players attended the free con- trade shows 2020, year on year. cert as avatars. Experiences such as these Rather like the exhibition organisers, are not replacements for in-person live Event however, the big music promoters are pro- music. But they are the makings of a sub- promotion tected by investors’ faith that mosh pits industry that will supplement the incomes and muddy festivals are not easily replica- of stars with global followings. Covid-19 Professional ble online. Live Nation’s and cts’s share has dealt live music a severe blow in 2020, sports prices are down by, respectively, only 10% but the resulting innovation could help the and 15% since February—not bad for firms industry come back stronger—if, perhaps, Source: Bloomberg that have lost nearly all their revenue. a bit less crowded. 7 The Economist November 28th 2020 Business 59

Publishing Shopping frenzies Book-binding Fade from black

BERLIN NEW YORK Bertelsmann snaps up Simon & America’s favourite spree isn’t what it Schuster used to be n the days before Thanksgiving two top xford-dictionary lexicologists re- Icontenders emerged for Simon & Schus- Ocently declared “blursday” a word of ter, the fifth-biggest English-language the year. Pandemic-induced date confu- book publisher by revenues, from Via- sion extends beyond self-isolating house- comcbs, an American media group. On No- holds. Best Buy, a large American electron- vember 25th Bertelsmann gained the upper ics retailer, recently declared that “Black hand. With an offer of $2.2bn the German Friday isn’t just one day this year—it’s parent of Penguin Random House (prh), months long.” the largest publisher by a Tolstoyan mar- The start of the pre-Christmas shopping gin, outbid News Corp, Rupert Murdoch’s An expanded English version coming soon season, which this year falls on November media group, whose catalogue contains 27th, has long been a bonanza for American HarperCollins, ranked third (see chart). pected. Covid-19 initially hurt book sales, retailers. The term itself is often credited to A merger with Simon & Schuster would as it did other discretionary spending. “The Philadelphia’s policemen, who used it to give prh almost one-third of English-lan- first five weeks [of the pandemic] were very describe the pandemonium caused by sub- guage book sales. That is more than double tough,” admits Brian Murray, chief execu- urban shoppers and tourists thronging the the market share of its closest rival, Ha- tive of HarperCollins. city ahead of the annual Army-Navy Ameri- chette Livre, owned by Lagardère, an ailing But with their pantries full, self-isola- can-football game on the Saturday after French conglomerate. (Vivendi, a French tors turned to fiction for escapism and edi- Thanksgiving. By the 1980s shops recog- group that is Lagardère’s biggest share- fication. “People are always predicting the nised the branding opportunity—and be- holder, also briefly vied for Simon & Schus- decline of book publishing, but it has actu- gan marking the occasion with deep dis- ter.) In America the merged biblio-behe- ally been very resilient,” says David Stein- counts and “doorbuster” deals to pull moth would control 70% of the market for berger, chief executive of Arcadia Publish- people from their turkey-laden tables to literary fiction. ing, a publisher of history books. shopping aisles. Authors and agents worry that the en- And Simon & Schuster is a prestigious These days retailers make one-fifth of larged prh may become ever more domi- prize. It was originally set up in 1924 to pub- their holiday revenue, defined as sales in nant in distribution—and that market con- lish crosswords, but went on to represent November and December, in the five days centration could lead to an excessive focus Ernest Hemingway, F. Scott Fitzgerald and from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, in- on bestsellers such Michelle Obama’s Tom Wolfe. This year it made waves with vented in 2005 by the National Retail Fed- memoir of her time as America’s first lady the publication of “Rage”, a ferocious ac- eration (nrf), a trade group, in recognition (which was published by a prh subsidiary) count of Donald Trump’s White House by of an online sales bump on the first work- at the expense of niche titles that are no Bob Woodward, a far-famed journalist, as ing day after the holiday weekend. Black less worthy. Robert Thomson, News Corp’s well as a tell-all memoir by the president’s Friday typically attracts more than twice boss, is certain, for his part, that the Ber- niece, a psychologist. the foot traffic of other annual shopping telsmann deal will alert trustbusters. Earli- Nabbing Simon & Schuster is Bertels- sprees in America. er this year America’s Department of Jus- mann’s second coup in the space of a week. This year, though, covid-19 has made tice thwarted a merger of Cengage and On November 17th American and Canadian many shoppers reluctant to elbow their McGraw-Hill, two publishers of education- readers set a record for first-day sales, way to cut-price wedding gowns or tv sets. al books. Any delay would be bad news for snapping up 890,000 copies of a new mem- So large retailers have, like Best Buy, Viacomcbs, which needs the money badly oir by Mrs Obama’s husband, also pub- stretched Black Friday from a frenzied 24 for investments in video-streaming, where lished by a prh subsidiary. 7 hours to several weeks. Walmart, Target it lags behind rivals such as Netflix, Disney and other big-box retailers announced dis- or at&t, a telecoms giant that owns hbo. counts on holiday items as early as October Thomas Rabe, Bertelsmann’s boss, says Double-entry book-keeping 11th. In lieu of mall Santas and mistletoe, he is confident that regulators in America Top publisher revenues, $bn they offered refurbished online interfaces, and other countries will bless the deal. 12 generous return policies and expanded op- They rarely block mergers that only reduce tions for kerbside pickup. Amid the pan- 10 the number of big players from five to four. Scholastic demic-induced collapse of travel and other The last big union, Bertelsmann’s takeover “experiential” spending, some of the un- 8 in 2013 of Penguin, did not fall foul of anti- HarperCollins spent dosh is going on stuff instead, notes trust guardians. Moreover, the leading five 6 Jill Standish of Accenture, a consultancy. have lost market share in recent years to Hachette Livre nrf expects this year’s holiday retail sales smaller rivals, not to mention Amazon, 4 to grow by as much as 5% compared with which these days not only sells books (as 2019, as friends and families use gifts to Simon & Schuster 2 well as just about everything else) but also show long-distance appreciation. Penguin Random House publishes them. 0 Even if nrf’s forecast proves accurate, That still leaves the question of whether 1918171615142013 however, this year’s haul is unlikely to ar- the deal is a good one for Bertelsmann. The Source: Rüdiger Wischenbart Content & Consulting rest the stagnation of the holiday shopping price was heftier than even Viacomcbs ex- season. Its share of annual retail sales fad-1 60 Business The Economist November 28th 2020

Diversity consulting Lower contrast United States All inclusive

Holiday* retail sales E-commerce sales As % of annual total† $bn 22 12 BOSTON 21 Black Friday 10 Social unrest in America has fuelled a 20 Cyber Monday 8 boom for a new kind of advice 19 6 s protests against 18 police violence 4 17 Aand racism convulsed America’s 16 2 streets this summer after the killing by a 0 policeman of George Floyd, a black man, the heat could be felt in the air-conditioned 191510052000951992 2016 1817 19 20‡ corner offices above. America Inc rushed to Sources: Census Bureau; NRF; Adobe Analytics *Nov 1st-Dec 31st †Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers ‡Forecast announce plans to tackle racial inequality. Walmart said it would set up a $100m ini- 2 ed below 19% throughout most of the past third of the day’s $23bn trade happened on- tiative to fight racism. Pepsi vowed to dou- decade, from 20.2% in 1992 (see chart). On- line. Now the share could be closer to a half. ble spending with black-owned suppliers. line shopping offers perpetually low In any case, the idea of squeezing all Facebook and Estée Lauder pledged to hire prices, making one-off discounts some- your bargain-hunting into a day is falling more non-white candidates. JPMorgan what less exciting. out of fashion. Since 2019 Amazon Prime Chase promised to extend $30bn in loans In this light, Black Friday’s in-store Day, the e-empire’s signature shopping over five years to minority households and stampedes no longer look that appealing. event, has lasted 48 hours. And this year businesses. Even nascar, which runs a The day’s internet sales have been rising Singles’ Day, a Chinese extravaganza which motor-racing series for a mostly rural and (though Cyber Monday has digitally out- normally falls on November 11th, lasted a white fan base, prohibited the display of shone it since at least 2016). Last year a full 11days. 7 confederate flags at its events. Diversity, many said, is not just the right thing to do. It is good for business. The attention economy For one breed of firms it has been very good indeed. Consultancies and recruiters You’ve been botted are enjoying a mini-boom as companies look for advice on how to become more in- clusive. The newly created diversity, equity Are online ads being viewed by virtual eyeballs? and inclusion (dei) practice at Bain, a con- t was a spectacular bit of timing. On “attention economy” is full of virtual sultancy, now has two dozen staff, and an- INovember 16th Baidu, a Chinese on- eyeballs. But such mischief tends to be other two dozen want to be part of it at least line-search giant, said it would buy yy the work of outsiders. Last year America’s some of the time, says Julie Coffman, who Live, a China-focused video-streaming Federal Trade Commission fined the boss heads it. She calls diversity “the next digi- service with 40m monthly users, for of a firm called Devumi $2.5m for selling tal”. A partner at another consultancy says $3.6bn. Two days later Muddy Waters, an fake YouTube views, the first time such a dei is the “fastest growing business line we American short-seller, published a re- complaint had been brought. Digital have right now”. Lyndon Taylor, who leads port claiming yy Live was “an ecosystem advertisers pay to have their ads shown dei at Heidrick and Struggles, an execu- of mirages” and “almost entirely fake”. to users. It is an open secret that many tive-search firm, discerns a “quantum” The share price of joyy, yy Live’s parent end up served to fake viewers, generated jump in demand for such services. company, slid by 26%. by computers infected with malware Lots of companies promised to do Muddy Waters alleges that joyy’s written for this purpose. things during the protests. Now, Mr Taylor platforms, including yy Live, are infested A new report by the University of says, they must work out what those are with “bots”—computers that log on to Baltimore and cheq, an anti-fraud firm, and how they are going to do them. The pri- “watch” streams, pretending to be hu- estimates that $35bn is lost annually to ority is hiring black senior executives or man. Many, it says, appear to sit in joyy’s such scams, from a total market worth board members. Before 2020 diversity internal networks. The upshot, it alleges, $333bn. South-East Asian fraudsters meant women, Latino, Asian and lgbtq, is that somewhere between 73% and 84% employ humans to scoot between racks says Dale Jones, boss of the Diversified of joyy’s revenue is suspect. of smartphones, tapping ads and in- Search Group, a 46-year-old recruitment joyy responded by saying the report stalling apps, says Gary Danks of Mach- firm originally set up to promote women. contained “numerous errors, unsubstan- ine, a firm that offers ad-fraud detection. Now Mr Jones sees “a hyper focus around tiated statements and misleading con- Those in places with higher labour costs black leadership”, with board placements clusions and interpretations”. It said it simulate phones on computers. up by half and c-suite recruiting by around would be open to “cash verification and Companies are fighting back. Last a third over the past year. diligence” conducted by “competent year Uber sued more than 100 ad agen- Julie Hembrock Daum, who recruits third-party advisers”. (joyy and Baidu did cies, accusing them of buying fake views board members at Spencer Stuart, another not respond to requests for comment.) on its behalf. Facebook launched a law- search firm, says she has to temper clients’ The allegations are unusual in accus- suit against firms it says create malware expectations about what is possible. She ing the platform of creating its own fake that hijacks users phones, forcing them tells them to think long and hard about users. Technological complexity and to generate fake ad clicks. Neither suit is what qualities they need on their board minimal human oversight means the likely to stem the fraudsters’ rise. rather than “a knee-jerk reaction like ‘we need a ceo who is black’”. 1 The Economist November 28th 2020 Business 61

2 Recruiters remind clients that board- how to run more inclusive firms. Some of- customers and employees are likelier to rooms and c-suites are not overly blessed fer broad-ranging strategies for organisa- hold strong views: 53% of those aged 18-34 with other ethnic minorities, lgbtq people tional and managerial changes. As one re- said they would not work for a firm that or women. They also highlight other cruiter puts it, “hiring can be a quick fix, failed to speak out during the protests, underrepresented groups, such as veter- but you can’t just add a couple of diverse compared with 42% for all ages. ans, migrants and refugees, the “differently fish. You actually need to change the water The change is driven by the drive and abled” and the all-encompassing “cogni- in the pond.” passion of younger employees, says Pame- tively diverse” (consultant-speak for peo- Demand for such services is unlikely to la Warren, who in July was appointed co- ple who think differently). abate any time soon. A survey by Edelman, leader of the dei council at Egon Zehnder, a The diversity industry has expanded be- a public-relations firm, conducted soon big executive-search firm. As more of them yond finding new hires. Consultancies’ after news of Floyd’s death, found that 60% enter the workforce, pressure on employ- and recruiters’ services include training of respondents said a brand’s reaction to ers to be more representative of the popu- staff on bias, advice for diversifying supply the protests “will influence whether I buy lation will grow—and with it demand for chains and coaching senior executives on or boycott them in the future”. Younger the diversity industry’s services. 7 Bartleby Winter is coming

Morale will be hard to maintain this year ime for a confession. Normally, bars are shut. The idea of working from much all these distractions. TBartleby’s family waits until Decem- home seems less inviting when there is Online collective activities are a ber before putting up the Christmas little scope for taking a break. substitute, but not a great one. When the decorations. But this weekend, even To counter the seasonal gloom, hu- pandemic is over, few people will want to though it is only November, the festive mans have long celebrated the winter maintain the tradition of “Zoom drinks”. lights will go up. Furthermore, he has solstice, the moment when the days start Quizzes are a potential substitute, al- bought some new (especially gaudy) getting longer again. This helps explain though they do not appeal to everyone. decorative items to brighten up the front why even atheists are enthusiastic partici- Some will be embarrassed if they do not of the house. pants in Christmas festivities. know the state capital of South Carolina Your columnist is far from alone. The fact that the solstice is followed by or the losing side in the last fifa World Some celebrities have already decorated the start of a new year only adds to the Cup final. their Christmas trees; Joan Collins, an need to mark the event in some way. In The other way companies can boost actress, was pictured next to hers on Christian countries these celebrations are morale at the year end is with an annual November 10th. The local coffee shop a part of people’s working lives. At the bonus. But the economic damage caused and minimarket had dressed in fir by minimum, this means lights and dec- by the pandemic has crimped many mid-November. These early seasonal orations in the office, or a Christmas tree businesses’ ability to offer this perk; they signals have been triggered by the pos- in reception. Often, it will involve a lunch, are struggling hard enough just to keep sibility of a long and depressing winter, after-work drinks or a party for staff, where everyone in their jobs. in which the pandemic will disrupt they can relax and reflect on the year’s That leaves another hardy perennial. traditional celebrations and families efforts. The effect is to bolster team spirit. Around this time chief executives send may be kept apart. There is the prospect Look back to the suggestions made by out a message to all staff in an attempt to of a vaccine but, for most people, not management consultants about improv- rally the troops by recounting the suc- until the spring. ing winter morale in previous years and it cesses of the previous year. These always A recent survey found that 68% of is striking how many of them involve remind Bartleby of the scene in the bbc Britons said the pandemic had adversely collective activities: ice-skating, fitness sitcom “Are You Being Served?”, when a affected their mental health before the classes, potluck lunches and the like. department store’s elderly owner tells nights started drawing in. In the circum- Social distancing now rules out pretty his shop assistants “You’ve all done very stances, many people will be tempted to well”, before tottering away on the arm of put up more Christmas lights just to have his nurse. It is hard to feel motivated by a cheerful sight. such bland, indiscriminate praise. The approach of winter is a problem So this year managers need to do a for employers and workers alike. When better job. A personal message (or a Western economies endured their first phone call) to each staff member in their covid-19 lockdown, it was the spring. The team is a good start. The conversation days were lengthening and people work- should contain some praise that is spe- ing from home could take a break from cific to the individual, as well as a check their labours and go for a stroll in the on how the colleagues are feeling at a local park. Many could take their laptops difficult time. This will be time-consum- and work in the garden (if they were ing—and all the more appreciated for it. lucky enough to have a backyard, and a The art of management is not merely job that could be done remotely). about hitting a budget. But the second wave of the disease has If this doesn’t happen at your com- hit as days get both colder and shorter. pany, never mind. Praise from a boss is Workers are stuck inside for most of the priceless. For everything else, there is day; in many countries, restaurants and always a display of luminous reindeer. 62 Business The Economist November 28th 2020 Schumpeter The climate centurion

Who says utilities are cold-hearted and dull? pean Union are promising to invest in clean energy over the next few years, he purrs: “They finally got it.” The pandemic, Mr Starace says, has given the world a glimpse of a renewables future. For years it was a matter of hot debate how much intermittent wind and solar power an electricity system could absorb without crashing. Lockdowns, he thinks, have helped settle the argument. They crushed demand, driving out conven- tional sources of power generation in favour of cheaper renew- ables, yet systems withstood the shock “beautifully”. Though gas and coal will bounce back, he believes governments will be reas- sured that renewables do not pose the dangers that their critics claim. Enel is taking advantage of the political tailwinds. By 2023 it plans to invest €16.8bn in onshore wind and solar, promising to raise core earnings, or ebitda, by 13%. It still operates coal-fired power plants in Italy but vows to close them down by 2027, three years ahead of schedule. In a dig at the oil industry, it has taken to calling itself a “renewable supermajor”. Renewables catch everyone’s attention. But Enel also proposes big investments in networks and distribution—the pylons that make up a grid, as well as the poles and wires feeding electricity to customers—which it operates in eight countries. To reinforce and digitise them for a future of clean energy, electric vehicles and ack in the1980s a young Francesco Starace was working in the mass electrification, Enel plans €16.2bn of investments in the next BSaudi desert on a wasteful fossil-fuel project. His task was to three years. It is also open to making acquisitions. Its total spend- build an oil-fired power plant. It was highly inefficient. Even ing will be financed by a slight increase in net debt, green bonds though the country sits on a sea of the stuff, the fuel needed to be and government clean-energy programmes. transported by lorry hundreds of kilometres across the desert from The €20bn in annual ebitda Enel is likely to generate as a result Jeddah. And to begin with there were no customers; its aim was to marks a “mind-blowing” turnaround, says Sam Arie of ubs, a bank. provide a way to persuade nomadic tribes to settle down in air- When Mr Starace took over, Enel was debt-ridden and had recently conditioned homes. Mr Starace loved the job. Only years later did it cut the dividend. Yet now it promises a guaranteed payout for the strike him how “crazy” it was. He tells the story to illustrate that the next three years, even as many pandemic-hit companies can significance of sustainability did not dawn on him quickly. scarcely look beyond January. Utility analysts, a nerdy bunch, rel- Today the 65-year-old is boss of Rome-based Enel, Europe’s ish the boldness. “You have made our job a lot more interesting,” largest utility. Its market value has more than doubled to €85bn one from Goldman Sachs, a bank, told Mr Starace. ($101bn) since he took over in 2014, making it as big as an oil giant. Oil companies, which once peered down their noses at utilities, Concerns about climate change are now all the rage among the now eye them with envy. They have a lot to learn. For all their ef- world’s business elite. But few companies match Italy’s biggest forts to repaint themselves green, their ambitions remain a pale firm in putting its money where its mouth is. On November 24th shade of it. Enel’s promised renewables investments in the next Mr Starace unveiled plans to invest €160bn by 2030 to virtually tri- three years almost match those of bp, Royal Dutch Shell and Total ple its renewable-energy capacity to 120 gigawatts and transform combined. The oil majors also lack the right skills. Mr Starace says its grids in Europe and Latin America to prepare for an all-electric vertically integrated utilities such as Enel are different from most future. The announcement came weeks after a similarly striking oil companies chiefly because of their relationships both with reg- pledge by Iberdrola, Spain’s second-biggest company, to invest ulators and customers. “The only thing they have in common with €75bn in renewables and grids by 2025. In America NextEra, a pio- us is the word ‘energy’,” he quips. And, as Meike Becker of Bern- neering utility which briefly eclipsed ExxonMobil in value of late, stein, a broker, puts it, oil giants tend to lack utilities’ financial dis- has also promised to fork out a fortune on wind and solar. cipline. They talk a good game. Utilities, in contrast, like to under- The triumvirate’s spending plans are still dwarfed by the vast promise and over-deliver. sums oil companies pour into fossil fuels every year. But they Dangers lie ahead. Increased competition means Enel is lower- make three things clear. First, renewables have moved from niche ing its predicted returns beyond 2023. Its desire to move into India, to the big time. Second, utilities, formerly the dowdiest part of the a minefield of an energy market, may lead it astray. And its zeal to energy universe, are now where the action is. Third, the oil indus- expand could lead to costly bidding wars for networks, such as the try has a lot to learn if it wants to invade their patch. one it won in 2018 against Iberdrola in Brazil’s São Paulo state. Sitting in his book-lined study on the eve of the announce- ment, the bespectacled Mr Starace does not fit with the caricature Generation change of a gruff utility boss. He wears a black crew-neck sweater. He reads Mr Starace, recently given a third term as boss, appears as unflap- poetry. He drives a Tesla. When he set about selling off Enel’s lega- pable as ever. He has strong lieutenants who could take over when cy coal-fired power stations in 2015 he wanted them turned into he retires. He is a model of southern-European business acumen. museums and art galleries. He talks about energy with a soft- And he has a smooth Italian charm. “I’d love him to be the grand- spoken enthusiasm more usually found among tech evangelists. father of my kids,” coos one investment adviser. Not many utility When discussing the money that America, Britain and the Euro- bosses can claim that as an endorsement. 7 Finance & economics The Economist November 28th 2020 63

Also in this section 64 Janet Yellen at the Treasury 65 Buttonwood: The M&A boom 66 Steve Mnuchin’s last stand? 66 Dodgy debt collectors in China 67 Hawala money transfers 68 Free exchange: Savings v credit gluts

Christine Lagarde fiscal policy is acting in concert with mon- etary easing, including at the eu-wide lev- Culture shock el. The new opportunity to help co-ordi- nate monetary policy and government spending plays to Ms Lagarde’s strengths. Yet it is precisely her willingness to venture into areas that most central bankers con- sider political terrain that is causing some controversy among the experts. The ecb’s boss is taking the bank out of its comfort zone—and into hers The ecb’s ammunition was sorely de- hristine lagarde has been an outsid- have had a decent year. The bank has acted pleted even before covid-19 struck. Its Cer before. Speaking to The Economist, decisively, avoiding the mistakes of the fi- benchmark deposit rate was -0.5%, and it she relishes the memory of shaking up bu- nancial crisis of 2007-09 and the sover- had been buying government and cor- reaucrats—“men in grey suits”—when she eign-debt woes of 2010-12. Since the start of porate bonds through its quantitative-eas- took over as France’s finance minister in the year it has injected stimulus of €2.2trn ing (qe) scheme since 2015. But the bank 2007. She even installed a “psychedelic” ($2.6trn) into the economy (see chart 1). In warded off a credit crunch earlier this year carpet in her office, to get them to look up contrast with the austerity of a decade ago, by ripping up self-imposed rules. Instead from the floor. Now Ms Lagarde, who then of buying a country’s assets in rough pro- went on to run the imf, is shaking up the portion to the size of its gdp, it has bought idea of what it is to be a top central banker. Splashing the cash 1 more of those of Italy and Spain. The ecb The main prerequisite used to be a de- European Central Bank, balance-sheet has also expanded the generosity of its gree of nerdiness: just think of Janet Yellen, long-term loans to banks, paying them up a former chairwoman of the Federal Re- Nov 2020*, % of 2019 GDP Total, €trn to 1% if they continue to lend. That, togeth- serve and Joe Biden’s choice for treasury er with government guarantees, has kept secretary (see next story); Ben Bernanke, 50403020100 60 credit from seizing up, even as a second her predecessor at the Fed; or Mervyn King, Lending/ wave of infections and lockdowns make a a former governor of the Bank of England. Asset purchases credit Other 6.9 double-dip recession seem inevitable. An facilities All spent decades in academia. By contrast ecb survey published on November 24th Ms Lagarde, who has been the head of the found that access to finance was towards European Central Bank (ecb) for just over a Increase, Jan-Nov 2020*, % of 2019 GDP the bottom of small firms’ list of anxieties. year, is not an economist but a lawyer and a All this, however, has done little to re- former executive and politician. She brings 50 10 15 20 vive the outlook for inflation. The bank it- cv a glittering and a high public profile to Lending/ self expects annual inflation of only 1.3% the job, but is probably more comfortable Asset purchases credit facilities Other 2.2 by 2022. Market participants are even rubbing shoulders with heads of state than gloomier (see chart 2 on next page). It is be- participating in a research seminar. Sources: European Central Bank; coming harder to believe that the ecb can The Economist *At November 20th On the face of it, Ms Lagarde and the ecb do much more by itself. The Economist1 64 Finance & economics The Economist November 28th 2020

2 spoke to executives from five of the euro mate change” 80 times—compared with Janet Yellen area’s biggest banks. None thought the just seven across Mr Draghi’s entire eight- ecb’s cheap funding alone would stir de- year term. Something for mand for credit, or encourage banks to Climate change, according to Ms La- lend to risky prospects. Ms Lagarde insists garde, is an element not just of the ecb’s everyone stimulus is “not exclusively a fiscal busi- “secondary” objective—which is to support ness”, and that the ecb can still do its bit. the eu’s economic policies. More contro- But in a speech on November 11th she made versially, she sees it as having a bearing on The Fed’s former chairwoman will lead a forceful case for further fiscal action. the bank’s primary mandate of price stabil- the Treasury. What does she stand for? There have been two criticisms levelled ity. She has said before that the bank will at Ms Lagarde. One is that communication consider the merits of “green” qe, which n the first instalment of the “Harry Pot- slip-ups over the past year show that she would tilt bond-buying away from pollut- Iter” series, the protagonist stumbles has only a weak grasp of the technical de- ers. The idea clashes with the views of across the Mirror of Erised. Anyone who tail of monetary policy. That may in part re- many central bankers, including Jens looks into the mirror sees the “deepest, flect economists’ snootiness. But her mis- Weidmann, the head of the Bundesbank. At most desperate desire” of their hearts re- steps did indeed move markets. In March a Bloomberg conference on November flected back at them. There is a touch of Er- her comment that the ecb “was not here to 16th, both Ms Yellen and Lord King worried ised about President-elect Joe Biden’s deci- close spreads” sent Italian government- about mission creep at central banks. Few sion to nominate Janet Yellen as America’s bond yields soaring. In September her economists think climate change has a big next treasury secretary, first reported on seeming indifference to a strengthening influence on inflation; most would point November 23rd. No economist is more euro and its impact on inflation meant the out that changing polluters’ behaviour is a qualified than Ms Yellen, a former head of currency only rose further against the dol- job for elected officials. the Federal Reserve and a respected aca- lar. Both were followed the next day by an Ms Lagarde intends to win over the rest demic, for the job. Perhaps more impor- explanatory blog post from Philip Lane, the of the ecb’s 25-strong governing council tant, however, for what is a political role as bank’s accomplished chief economist— during the bank’s strategy review, due to much as an economic one, people from the seeming to correct the president’s words. conclude in mid-2021. It will cover every- progressive left to the conservative right Ms Lagarde is only too aware of the fact thing from relatively uncontroversial can see something to like in her. that markets hang on her every word, and tweaks to the inflation target to more con- In today’s political configuration, that now carefully watches what she says. In or- tested areas, the financial-stability effects matters. Mr Biden must tame a split in the der to stress collective decision-making, of low interest rates and, of course, climate Democratic Party between run-of-the-mill blog posts by Mr Lane and others on the change. She says she hopes to convince her centrists and tear-it-down millennial so- bank’s executive board will no longer ap- colleagues to “appreciate that they should cialists. And before she becomes treasury pear immediately after a press conference. be not only on the right side of history and secretary, Ms Yellen must be confirmed by Some wonks reckon she has improved face their children and grandchildren with the Senate, which Republicans currently markedly on the job. Still, it is hard to imag- a straight face, but be able to focus on the control. That hurdle ruled out candidates ine her becoming a conviction rate-setter. core mandate of price stability”. such as Elizabeth Warren, a senator from Where she does have conviction is on That the euro area has avoided a finan- Massachusetts whom many Republicans matters such as climate change and gender cial crisis means Ms Lagarde can look back would never confirm because she is seen as equality, subjects that she promoted while on the past year with some satisfaction. But too hostile to free markets and the finan- at the imf, to which grey-suited monetary her term lasts for eight years—far longer cial industry. policymakers generally give a wide berth— than many politicians or executives hang In the days before the announcement and which are the source of the second around for. Her push to broaden the ecb’s Washington insiders believed the race was concern about her approach to central mission has just begun. And if some coun- between Ms Yellen and Lael Brainard, a go- banking. It is instructive to compare Ms La- tries (eg, Germany) return to economic vernor of the Fed. Some favoured Ms Brai- garde’s speeches and interviews over the normality sooner than others (eg, Italy), nard on the grounds that she had more ex- past year with those of Mario Draghi, her then the ecb will also face tough choices pertise in trade economics, others because predecessor. Though “inflation” has fea- about when precisely to unwind its emer- she is younger than Ms Yellen, and would tured 190 times, she is half as likely to men- gency measures. The outsider’s next seven therefore do a better job of balancing an el- tion it as Mr Draghi did in 2018 and 2019. By years promise to be more controversial derly president. Left-leaning Democrats contrast, Ms Lagarde has mentioned “cli- than the first one. 7 were particularly taken with Ms Brainard’s monetary doveishness. Yet Ms Yellen has many advantages of A job half done 2 her own. She is an accomplished econo- mist, originally specialising in labour eco- Ten-year government-bond yields Market measures of expected inflation* nomics, and is the president of the Ameri- % % can Economic Association, the field’s 4 2.5 pre-eminent learned society. (There are Italy United States also few better-liked people in the profes- 3 2.0 sion; wonks turn up their collars in hom- 2 1.5 age to one of Ms Yellen’s sartorial quirks.) She was a highly competent chairwoman 1 1.0 Spain of the Fed between 2014 and 2018, commu- Euro area nicating the central bank’s intentions 0 0.5 clearly in advance so as not to take inves- Germany -1 0 tors by surprise. Her experience at the Fed 20191817162015 20191817162015 may prove useful given that the central Sources: Refinitiv Datastream; Bloomberg *Five-year, five-year forward swap rate bank and the Treasury must continue to co- operate to help the economic recovery 1 The Economist November 28th 2020 Finance & economics 65

2 along. Under Ms Yellen there would be lit- Yellen in fact did a good job of keeping pass another economic recovery package.” tle chance of the sort of spat that has devel- them in check. Passing another stimulus bill may be oped over the Fed’s lending schemes (see It is a similar story on fiscal policy. her first big task. Republicans and Demo- next story). Shortly before Donald Trump became pres- crats have been unable to agree on a re- The genius of choosing Ms Yellen lies in ident, Ms Yellen argued that “fiscal policy placement to the bill passed in the spring, the fact that people of all political persua- is not obviously needed to provide stimu- with particular disagreement on the size of sions can find some reason to cheer her ap- lus to help us get back to full employment”. the eventual package, even as it is now pointment. That means she will almost She is on the board of the Committee for a clear that America’s economic recovery is certainly be confirmed by the Senate. Take Responsible Federal Budget, an organisa- slowing. It is a lot to expect that the sheer monetary policy. Hawks point out that dur- tion that spends a lot of time warning peo- force of one person could help break the ing Ms Yellen’s tenure the Fed raised rates ple about the dangers of high public debt. deadlock, not least because Republicans from near zero to 1.25-1.5%. Doves counter Yet in the pandemic Ms Yellen has urged are likely to retain control of the Senate for that hawks were over-represented on the “extraordinary fiscal support”. In June she a while yet. But if anyone can do it, it may rate-setting panel at the time, and that Ms co-signed a letter saying “Congress must be Ms Yellen. 7 Buttonwood Home-schooled

The financial, economic and psychological forces behind the incipient m&a boom magine you are the boss of a public afford a deal, or finance it. Even then, the rationale for a deal might be to secure Icompany. Normally you are busy mak- calls with bankers never stopped. In place supply chains, to diversify across geog- ing decisions, visiting outposts, talking of black-tie events came virtual schmooz- raphies, to acquire a specific (often digi- to customers, suppliers and employees. ing—from one home study to another. tal) capability; or simply to bolster rev- The meetings are endless. You have little The deal pipeline started to thaw in enues or cut costs when the outlook for time for reflection. Then, suddenly this June or July. Announcements have been profits is rather bleak. Some of the tran- spring, after a bout of firefighting, the coming thick and fast since. A lot of this is sactions that are happening now are diary is bare. You sit in your study, hiding down to market conditions, which quickly deals of opportunity, says Alison Har- from the family, and ruminate—about turned favourable and have remained so. ding-Jones, head of m&a in Europe, the what your firm lacks, about what it has Equity prices have roared back from their Middle East and Africa for Citigroup, a too much of. You call a friendly invest- lows of late March. The companies with bank. And some are deals of necessity. ment banker and say: “I may need to do a shares that rallied first—technology and Covid-19 has created winners and losers deal soon.” health care—found themselves with a across industries, but also within them. The results of such stay-at-home highly valued currency with which to pay ceos of winning companies may find strategy sessions are now apparent. The for deals. The corporate-bond market has that the acquisition on their lockdown past few weeks have seen a burst of m&a reopened with a vengeance, making debt wishlist is available. Those of losing activity. There are merger deals of all finance available. Interest rates are at rock companies must simply try to sell wisely. kinds, in all parts of the world, across bottom and likely to stay there for a while. Both kinds will be wary of the re- many industries—from tech and health Private-equity firms have a lot of unused sponse from shareholders. The risks of care to banking and publishing. The capital (“dry powder”) to call upon. getting the price wrong or of under- dealmakers at investment banks are But financial conditions are not the estimating the hassle of integrating joyful. The last time things were this only explanation. The economy is another. acquisitions are ever-present. But deals busy, they say, was in 2007-08. The pandemic has given companies new that have a decent-looking strategic case Shareholders have some call to fear problems to solve and made some existing are likely to be given the benefit of the the worst. There is a weighty body of ones more pressing. m&a offers a fix. doubt. Serial dealmakers will get the literature, some of it dating from the Debt-laden firms need to sell assets. Buy- most leeway. Research from McKinsey, a stockmarket bust of the early 2000s, that ers want to plug some strategic holes. The consultancy, finds that companies that says mergers do not create value for the do lots of smallish acquisitions over time acquiring company. More recent re- tend to add value to them. Such “pro- search is more nuanced. Mergers over- grammatic acquirers” take more care in seen by serial acquirers tend to add to assessing targets, aligning m&a with value, it finds. Once m&a gets going, broader corporate strategy and integrat- things can quickly get out of hand, of ing their purchases. course. But this early in the economic As a rule big, one-off deals are riskier. cycle, and in the unusual circumstances, The dangers seem small now but will mergers are more likely to have a coher- grow the longer the m&a boom goes on. ent logic to them. Bosses will start to worry that their deal- To understand the burgeoning m&a making rivals look more in command of boom, go back to January and February. events. They will be prone to the ill- Bankers had a full pipeline of deals. Then advised, grandiose merger. When the the pandemic took hold. A dealmaking boom is all over, a few such souls will ceo had to think again. If you had a merg- find themselves back in the study at er in the works, you pulled it. You home, but this time because they no couldn’t project numbers with confi- longer have an office to go to, asking dence. You didn’t know if you could themselves: “Why did I do it?” 66 Finance & economics The Economist November 28th 2020

Stimulus in America chin’s letter was published, but both had recovered by the end of the day. Credit A clash over cash spreads did not widen. What might explain Mr Mnuchin’s ac- tions? With government-borrowing yields near all-time lows, the cost of allocating capital to the Fed’s facilities is small. But NEW YORK the political costs may have been higher. Jerome Powell and Steve Mnuchin are When Mr Mnuchin and Mr Powell testified at odds over emergency lending to Congress in September, no fewer than s covid-19 spread across America, its seven representatives quizzed them about Afiscal and monetary tsars donned their the poor take-up of the Main Street Lending masks, bumped elbows and presented a facility, which makes loans to firms. united front. Jerome Powell, the chairman Mr Mnuchin has suggested directing of the Federal Reserve, slashed interest some of the funds to other schemes, such rates and bought Treasuries and mortgage as the Paycheck Protection Programme, a debt. Steve Mnuchin, the treasury secre- vehicle that lends to small businesses, tary, pushed through a stimulus package which ran out of funds in August. Perhaps worth $2.2trn that increased the generosity he hopes that promising support for small of unemployment benefits and secured firms will sway Republicans reluctant to funding for the Fed to support firms and approve another stimulus package. A less market participants in need. charitable explanation is that he wants to This partnership seemed to fracture on obstruct the next administration. The re- November 19th, when Mr Mnuchin wrote turned cash will go to the Treasury’s Gen- ruptcy law. Courts routinely heard disputes to Mr Powell to say that he would let several eral Fund, which will require legislation if between lenders and borrowers, but al- of the Fed’s emergency lending schemes it is to be tapped. If Janet Yellen, President- lowed only creditors to file suits. The new expire on December 31st. He asked for Trea- elect Biden’s choice for treasury secretary, law, to be rolled out next year, will offer sury funds that had been allocated to the wants to use it, she will have to secure the debtors more protection against creditors. Fed, as capital to support these pro- votes first. 7 A few other cities are conducting similar grammes, to be returned. experiments, though “these reforms are Mr Mnuchin’s decision earned a rare re- still very limited,” says Li Jiao of Buren, a buke from the Fed, which said that it Personal debt in China law firm. “would prefer that the full suite of emer- The central bank, meanwhile, issued gency facilities...continue to serve their Overdue action draft rules late last year, threatening to important role as a backstop for our still- punish banks for working with dodgy debt strained and vulnerable economy”. Just a collectors, though it softened the language few weeks earlier Mr Powell had said the before the guidelines took effect on No- pair were working on an extension. On No- vember 1st this year. Government pressure, vember 20th, though, he acquiesced to Mr say industry executives, has prompted Mnuchin’s request. The Treasury had allo- HONG KONG consolidation. Some companies, such as Bad debts lead to even worse behaviour cated $195bn in capital to support the Fed’s yx Asset Recovery, have banned in-person programmes, half of which had been trans- ebt-collection videos have become a visits and operate only call centres—a prac- ferred to the central bank. The Fed will now Dpopular subgenre on Chinese clip- tice considered less intrusive. yx, which return $70bn, keeping $25bn for loans it sharing platforms. Many feature young had more than 10,000 agents last year, has has already made. men deftly fielding phone calls from sworn off practices including selling debt- Mr Mnuchin pointed out that the pro- aggressive collectors. Some portray the or information, impersonating govern- grammes that would cease—including fa- abuses—hair pulling, slapping—that have ment officials, and threatening violence. cilities to buy corporate and municipal come to define a business that has long Yet the early reforms do not quite hit the bonds, and those that make direct loans to gone largely unregulated in China. The re- mark. They have helped control debt col- firms—were under-used and seemed to sult has been a Wild West for collections. lection for banks, but it is online lenders have served their purpose. The Fed could Debt collectors sometimes impersonate and microloan companies that pose a big- have made up to $2trn-worth of loans; in- police officers; the details of debtors’ ger risk. Delinquency rates have climbed stead it lent just $25bn. The schemes were friends and family are sold so that they can above 30% this year at many nonbank lend- intended to quell market dysfunction; cor- be harassed. A swift rise in personal debt, ers, compared to 5% for banks. Most online porate-credit and municipal spreads on though, is forcing regulators to act. lenders are not targeted by the new rules Treasuries have since normalised, and Between 2015 and 2019 the stock of and tend to hire local collections agencies companies have been able to issue plenty household debt in China rose by about that pursue aggressive, often-illegal tactics of debt. $4.6trn, close to the $5.1trn accrued by for recovering debts. Emergency-lending schemes can act as Americans over a similar period before the Nor has the shift away from in-person a sort of insurance, even if they are not global financial crisis of 2007-09, accord- visits eliminated debtor harassment. Phys- widely used. Indeed the mere announce- ing to data from Rhodium Group, a con- ical threats seem to be being replaced by ment of the schemes in the spring served to sulting firm. The outstanding balance of mediated forms of “emotional pressure”, kick-start credit markets, even before any- delinquent consumer receivables could applied during frequent phone calls, says thing had been bought. But capital markets reach nearly 3.3trn yuan ($500bn) next Tom McDonald of the University of Hong seemed to broadly endorse the idea that the year, up from just 1trn yuan in 2015, reckons Kong. Those seeking advice on how to deal Fed’s emergency lending schemes were no iResearch, another consultancy. with officious agents need look no further longer needed. Stockmarket futures and In June the southern city of Shenzhen than the growing archive of debt-collec- bond yields dipped a little, as Mr Mnu- drafted the country’s first personal bank- tion videos available online. 7 The Economist November 28th 2020 Finance & economics 67

Money transfers distance. But the bigger hit was to goods trade. With borders closed, importers did Intrepid banking not need to move money around, or to bor- row to cover liquidity gaps. The only coun- try with which transactions have increased is Turkey—which Mr Zarak suspects is largely rich Afghans moving money out to buy property, fearing a Taliban takeover. He KABUL worries about a second wave. “If covid-19 The world’s shrewdest financiers, hawala traders, are being squeezed comes back, we will be in trouble.” acked trading floors are rare these picked up the same day. Customers do not What comes next for hawala? Some Pdays. An exception is the Shahzada cur- need to prove their identity, or explain why think that it can, in effect, be taken over. rency-exchange market in Kabul. Seven the money is being sent. That is why it is es- Abdul Bari Ahmadzai of Moore, a consul- days a week hundreds of men crowd into a sential in places like Afghanistan and So- tancy that works on Hesab Pay, a mobile- modest courtyard. Each has a bundle of malia, where large parts of the population money app, says if regulators allow it, ha- banknotes; some have piles several feet do not have identity documents. wala merchants could work as mobile- deep. Prices—for American dollars, Iranian But this is also precisely why regulators money agents on the side. Transactions rials and Pakistani rupees—ring out and dislike it. Western banks cut off anyone around the country at least could be done deals are done, on the spot, in cash. In the they suspect is using an account to send instantaneously on phones. In Somalia, small offices around the sides, money that money to places that are considered high- where telecoms operators are largely un- is changed can then be transferred to al- risk, such as Afghanistan or Somalia. In In- regulated, that has already happened. Ac- most anywhere in the world. Cash is hand- dia and Pakistan hawala merchants are ar- cording to the World Bank, around three- ed over and WhatsApp messages fly. rested for evading the countries’ capital quarters of Somalis use mobile money— The money travels by hawala (from the controls. In Afghanistan the central bank, mostly denominated in dollars—and it is Arabic for “transfer”), a centuries-old sys- under foreign pressure to ensure transpa- more common than cash. Mr Bari reckons tem. Transactions in opposite directions rency, has long sought to crack down on the shift would in turn expand Afghans’ ac- are matched against each other through a traders. In 2018 they were banned from cess to banking, and gradually formalise network of personal contacts. An Afghan in holding deposits and making loans, and the financial sector. London sending remittances home might were required to start collecting docu- Yet that outcome is far from guaran- in turn finance a Kabuli merchant import- ments on their customers. Instead of com- teed. Hawala merchants will be nervous of ing Chinese goods purchased in Britain. plying they went on strike, claiming that anything that requires them to start col- Banks may be used—but not formally. The the new rules would destroy their busi- lecting data or comply with other regula- sender is given a serial number, which they ness. Within a week the government had tions. And if they do not, Afghanistan’s few send (these days on WhatsApp) to the re- backed down. “Shutting down hawala mar- formal banks have a lot to lose by working cipient, who then picks up the money from kets would paralyse the economy,” says Mr with them. These already have only limited a contact of the hawala merchant. Rahimi. Now an uneasy truce prevails. access to the international banking sys- Hawala is the core of Afghanistan’s fi- Covid-19 has not helped hawala traders, tem. Huge amounts of money travel from nancial system. One in six adult Afghans many of whom also provide trade finance. Afghanistan to neighbouring Iran, its main has a bank account; there are just two In his office at Shahzada, Haji Zarak, the source of imports. And as the number of branches for every 100,000. Most remit- spokesman of the union of currency ex- people on America’s sanctions list rises, tances—which some estimates reckon changers, says that the past year has been the risks for western banks dealing in the amount to 15-18% of the country’s gdp each the toughest ever. When coronavirus first region grows. They could decide to cut off year—flow through it. Even international hit Afghanistan, the traders at the market many Afghans entirely. If that happens, ha- aid agencies use it. And Afghanistan is not went down to three days a week to socially wala could be the only alternative left. 7 the only place where hawala dominates. In Iraq, Somalia and Syria, the transfer system is vital too. Hawala is used in India and Pakistan to avoid slow and unwieldy banks. And the presence of huge numbers of migrants means it is well-established in the Gulf, especially Dubai. Yet hawala is under intense pressure. Regulators around the world hate the sys- tem, because of its opacity and its role in helping to fund terrorism. And covid-19 has hammered many merchants, by drying up cross-border trade and closing the small shops and businesses that do transfers. Hawala dominates in places like Af- ghanistan because it is so efficient. Mar- gins on even small international transfers may be as low as 1%, far less than banks’ charges. Indeed, sending money from Af- ghanistan to the West is often free, says Ha- roun Rahimi of the American University of Afghanistan. It is not only cheaper to use a hawala merchant than a bank, but quicker and easier too. Transfers can typically be Cash converters 68 Finance & economics The Economist November 28th 2020 Free exchange An unbalanced debate

Some economists think it is misleading to blame financial imbalances on a saving glut vested or exported. It follows that anything that is neither con- sumed nor invested at home must be exported. (A farmer might, for example, export wheat to a barn overseas.) What flows across borders are the unconsumed goods and services themselves. “Oth- er countries are not sending saving to America to give it ‘funds’ to finance their imports,” argue Mr Kumhof and Mr Sokol. “Their net exports are the saving, by definition.” But how then do Americans pay for these foreign goods? That raises the question of financing. Unlike saving, financing is insep- arable from money. To ask “how did you finance that?” is to ask “how did you obtain the money to buy that?”. Most money is brought into the world by banks, which have the happy ability to create it whenever they make a loan or purchase an asset. Thus the amount of financing available to a country depends heavily on the behaviour of banks, rather than on the amount of saving that ei- ther it or its trading partners do. In a world of gluts and deficits, who finances whom? The con- ventional answer is that countries with excess saving finance those with saving shortfalls. But this less conventional group of economists argues that the answer depends not on the geography of saving and investment but on that of banking and finance. In many cases, American importers will fund their purchases with n 2005 ben bernanke, then a governor of America’s Federal Re- dollars borrowed from (or already held in) American banks. Iserve, noted a “remarkable reversal in the flows of credit” to sev- When the purchase is complete, the dollars will be held by for- eral emerging economies, especially those in East Asia. These eigners. They then represent a foreign financial claim on America. countries had begun to save more than they invested at home, be- Because America is buying more stuff from the world than it sells, coming a “net supplier of funds” to the rest of the world. Their these claims on America will grow faster than the payments it re- “saving glut”, as Mr Bernanke called it, was helping finance Ameri- ceives for its exports. Many conventional economic models treat ca’s widening current-account deficit, allowing the world’s richest these net payment flows as the only kind of capital flow. But in re- country to buy more goods and services from others than it sold to ality, they are but a small fraction of the financial flows between them. Mr Bernanke wondered whether this arrangement could, or countries. Many cross-border transactions, after all, do not in- should, persist. Some economists later blamed the glut for Ameri- volve goods and services at all. They instead represent purchases ca’s housing bubble. of foreign assets, including shares, bonds, property and the like. In Similar concerns are resurfacing. In the second quarter of this the year Mr Bernanke made his speech, the net capital outflow year, America’s net national saving rate dipped below zero, as Ste- from “saving glut” countries (with current-account surpluses) was phen Roach of Yale University pointed out in the Financial Times 2.5% of global gdp. Gross capital flows, by comparison, were last month. Lacking saving of its own, America instead borrowed around 30%, according to Mr Borio and Mr Disyatat. “surplus saving from abroad”, he wrote. Its current-account deficit widened faster in the second quarter than ever before recorded. Gluttonous behaviour This sort of reasoning is quite common, not least in these An excess of saving, then, determines neither the geographical pages. But a number of economists, including Michael Kumhof of source nor the scale of cross-border financing. Nor is excess saving the Bank of England, Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul of the Bank for necessarily the right causal starting point. The paper by Mr Kum- International Settlements (bis) and Andrej Sokol of the European hof and others models what they call a “credit glut”: an abundance Central Bank, take strong issue with it. Echoing work by Claudio of lending by American banks to the country’s citizens. In spend- Borio and Piti Disyatat of the bis, they call for a careful distinction ing this fresh money, Americans would no doubt suck in goods between flows of saving and flows of finance. The two are not the from abroad. This leads other countries to increase their saving, same. They need not even move together. The implication is that since America cannot import goods that are being consumed or in- Mr Bernanke may have got things the wrong way around. vested elsewhere. But in this case, the increase in foreign saving In everyday language, saving is the opposite of spending. The and surpluses is a side-effect of a financial boom within America, word evokes money accumulating in a bank account. And it is easy not a cause of its overspending. The authors believe a credit, rather to imagine this money helping finance spending elsewhere. But in than a saving, glut is a more convincing explanation for the economics, saving is rather different. It is the opposite of con- pre-2008 imbalances identified by Mr Bernanke, although they sumption. By producing something that is not consumed, the have less to say about more recent developments. economy is saving. Thus someone who spends all their earnings For many people (including some economists), it is natural to on home improvements is saving, however stretched they may think that saving must precede investment and that deposits must seem, because a house is a durable asset, not a consumer trifle. precede bank lending. It is therefore tempting to see saving as a Similarly a farmer who stores his harvest in a barn, rather than eat- source of funding and the prime mover in many macroeconomic ing it, is saving—even if he never deposits money in a bank. developments. Mr Kumhof and his co-authors see things differ- So how does saving, properly defined, flow across borders? Any ently, giving banks a more active, autonomous role. They give less output that is not consumed meets one of two fates: it is either in- credit to saving and more to credit. 7 Science & technology The Economist November 28th 2020 69

The coronavirus pandemic is confirmed as correct, it follows that the efficacy of the intended protocol is actually Another covid-19 vaccine joins the party only 62%. Further complications are that the half-dose group was a small fraction of the total, making statistical analysis less robust, and that group members were un- der 55, rather than fully representative of the population. Why a lower initial dose might yield a But there are doubts about the data describing its efficacy stronger response is puzzling. The answer n november 23rd, for the third Mon- also say that their vaccine may reduce pas- may lie in how the AstraZeneca-Oxford Oday in a row, the results of an anti- sage of the virus between people—a prop- vaccine delivers genetic material from the covid vaccine were announced. This time erty not yet established for either of the coronavirus into the recipient’s body, in or- the protagonists were AstraZeneca, a Brit- other two. An ideal vaccine needs to break der to stimulate that person’s immune sys- ish-Swedish pharmaceutical company, the chain of transmission, as well as stop- tem. It uses what is known as a viral vector and Oxford University. They reported their ping recipients from falling ill, so this to carry this material, a substance called vaccine to be 70% effective. But doubts claim is important. rna that is a cousin of dna. The other two have since arisen about the conduct of the vaccines deliver rna as a “naked” mole- trials which arrived at this figure. Half measures? cule, wrapped up in a fatty bubble. The consortium’s researchers estimat- The consortium’s claim of 70% efficacy is, Before the trials began, some research- ed their vaccine’s efficacy from interim however, complicated by concerns about a ers had worried that going down the viral- data collected by trials in Britain and Brazil. slip-up during the trials which meant some vector route might cause people to develop These involve more than 23,000 volun- participants were given only a half-dose of immunity to the vector as well as to the co- teers, half of whom have received the vac- the vaccine to start with, followed by a full ronavirus proteins which the rna payload cine and the other half a placebo of one sort one. Intriguingly, the efficacy of this ap- would encourage that person’s cells to or another. Like the previous offerings (one proach seemed to be about 90%. But if that make. The findings from the accidental from a partnership between Pfizer, a big subgroup hint that anti-vector immunity American pharma company, and BioN- may, indeed, be happening, causing a large Also in this section Tech, a small German one; the second from first dose to prime the body to develop anti- another American firm, Moderna), the As- 70 A cheap, solar-powered autoclave bodies to the vector. These would then at- traZeneca-Oxford inoculation is adminis- tack the second-dose vectors before they 72 Fossil shark nurseries tered in two jabs. Of those given it, none could do their job. A smaller first dose has been admitted to hospital with co- 72 Car seats and birth rates might diminish this priming effect—ex- vid-19, nor suffered a severe case of it. The plaining the better efficacy of unequal 74 The death of Arecibo researchers from AstraZeneca and Oxford doses. The researchers expect to gather 1 70 Science & technology The Economist November 28th 2020

2 more information about the nature of the questions remain about an unknown ad- have designed an autoclave that is powered immune response in the weeks ahead. verse event which caused trials to be halted directly by sunlight. And not only that; As with data on the other two vaccines, temporarily earlier this year. These, and they also reckon it should cost just a tenth much of the information provided so far is other matters, must now be considered by as much to make commercially as a con- frustratingly preliminary. However, the regulators, as they assess applications for ventional autoclave of equivalent potency. Oxford group say they hope soon to submit emergency authorisation that the makers Dr Zhao’s device is a work of simplicity a paper, presumably containing fuller in- of all three vaccines will submit. Astra- and cheap materials. It consists of a metre- formation, to a journal. It is not clear when Zeneca says it will also seek an emergency long box of rectangular cross section, with those developing the other two vaccines listing from the World Health Organisa- two curved fins of polished aluminium, will do the same, but data from their trials tion. That would permit its jabs to be used just under 30cm high, sticking out of the will be made available prior to meetings in places which do not have regulatory au- top (see diagram). Each fin, seen end on, with the American regulator in December. thorities capable of assessing vaccines. forms a section of a parabola, and it is a If time were not of the essence, it would property of parabolic mirrors to focus light Haste versus speed make sense to wait for longer-term data on from distant sources (the sun, for example) The headline figure of 70% efficacy con- all the new vaccines. But in the face of a onto a single point—or, in the case of elon- trasts superficially with announced values pandemic, that is not sensible. Regulations gated mirrors like these, onto a line. of 95% for the other two vaccines. But, to allow for emergency use are designed for The new invention’s principal trick is tempting as it is to compare these figures, just such situations. Regulators will, how- that these focal lines coincide with the that is actually hard to do. The most impor- ever, have to keep tight control of these edges of a copper plate within the box. This tant reason for this is that developers count new vaccines to start with. At the outset plate is part of a commercially available de- covid-19 cases in different ways. In particu- their use will probably be restricted to vice called a fin-tube absorber. The absorb- lar, the AstraZeneca-Oxford trials checked those who need them most—doctors, nur- er’s other element is a copper pipe running participants for asymptomatic infection, ses and other health-care workers, and also along the plate’s central axis. The particular rather than relying on self-reported symp- the elderly. Regulators will also insist on geometry of the aluminium fins means toms to establish who was infected. The close monitoring for side-effects. But, as that any incident sunlight will continue to number of cases after vaccination may data accumulate over the first months of be focused onto the copper plate even therefore seem higher than for the Pfizer- next year, those chains are likely to be loos- when the sun is not directly overhead. Any- BioNTech and Moderna jabs, which relied ened. The past three weeks, then, have thing inside the pipe is therefore going to on self-reporting by patients with a fol- transformed the prospects for 2021. The get—and stay—pretty hot. low-up confirmatory test. world now knows covid vaccines are possi- Within the box, the fin-tube absorber is One bonus of the AstraZeneca-Oxford ble. Let the hard work begin. 7 seated on a bed of glass fibre, an excellent offering is that, if approved, it could be insulator, and it is covered with a layer of rolled out quickly. Pascal Soriot, AstraZe- silica aerogel. This stuff, referred to collo- neca’s boss, says his firm has partnerships Sterilising medical instruments quially as “solid smoke” because it has a with suppliers in India, Latin America, density of a mere 200 milligrams per cubic Russia and Thailand. The Serum Institute Sunlight is the best centimetre, has the valuable properties of in India agreed to manufacture the vaccine being transparent to light but opaque to in bulk as long ago as April. “We are going disinfectant heat. This means it admits the sunshine re- to supply low- and middle-income coun- flected from the mirrors while keeping the tries around the world from different pipe as hot as possible. Although such a sources,” Mr Soriot says. “We are aiming at material sounds rather high-tech, and And now it can be used indirectly for doing this more or less at the same time, so does, indeed, require specialist equipment that purpose, too everybody gets access in an equitable man- to make, silica aerogel is actually quite ner as quickly as possible.” Altogether, As- n the history of medicine, praise is cheap to buy, at $4 a litre. And a production traZeneca says the capacity exists to make Irightly showered on those who invented model of the autoclave, Dr Zhao reckons, 3bn doses of its vaccine over the course of vaccines, antibiotics, antiseptics and an- would require only half a litre of the stuff. next year. That compares with 1.3bn of the aesthetics. Few, though, remember Charles The whole thing is then topped off with Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, while Moderna Chamberland, inventor of the humble a pane of glass, to protect the aerogel from 1 hopes for between 500m and 1bn. autoclave. Yet the ability to sterilise surgi- The AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine is also cal instruments reliably, by exposing them cheap, and can be kept for at least six to high-pressure steam in such a device, Reflected glory months in a normal refrigerator, meaning has been crucial to the development of A solar-powered autoclave it can be stored in any surgery or pharmacy modern surgery. A mere 12 minutes in an ↙ Aluminium mirrors ↘ around the world. Moderna’s vaccine, by autoclave at 121°C and two atmospheres of contrast, can be kept in an ordinary fridge pressure kills 99.99% of common patho- Glass for just a month. The Pfizer-BioNTech of- genic bacteria. Standard boiling, at 100°C fering is even more sensitive. For most of and one atmosphere, takes 80 hours to Aerogel the time it needs ultra-cold storage at achieve that level of bactericide. Incident Fin-tube -70°C. It can sit in a standard fridge for only Electrically powered autoclaves have, as light a few days. Richard Hatchett, the head of a consequence, become so routine as to be absorber cepi, a foundation that pays for research almost unregarded—at least in those into vaccines against novel pathogens, places with a reliable electricity supply. Focus Box says he thinks the AstraZeneca-Oxford vac- Where electricity is not reliable, though, it cine has the potential to alter the course of can be hard to keep surgical instruments the pandemic, and could be delivered any- germfree. This is a problem to which Zhao Insulation where, including poor countries. Lin of the Massachusetts Institute of Tech- Although AstraZeneca says its vaccine nology thinks he may have an answer. As Source: “A passive high-temperature high-pressure solar steam generator for medical sterilisation”, Zhao et al., (2020) was well tolerated by those who received it, he and his colleagues describe in Joule, they Joule You don’t need to be a bioengineer to help change the shape of humanity. Help power your portfolio with the innovators of the Nasdaq-100.

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2 damage while admitting light. All that is Children’s car seats needed after this is to attach a sterilisation The shark has pretty teeth, dear chamber to one end of the pipe and a water Estimated lengths of O. megalodon sharks, metres Berth control supply to the other, and then aim the mir- rors at the sun. With an appropriate ar- Site 0 5 10 15 20 rangement of valves, the sun’s heat will Bone valley boil the water, heat the resulting steam Calvert well above boiling-point and increase the NEW YORK Child-safety laws may have surprising pressure in the tube—and thus also in the Gatun unintended consequences sterilisation chamber. Chucunaque Distribution of fossils n the early In tests carried out at a hospital in Tarragona 1970s American women Mumbai, in partnership with the Indian gave birth, on average, to 2.12 children Yorktown I Institute of Technology in that city, Dr each. By 2018 that figure had fallen to 1.73. Zhao’s new autoclave was able to sustain Temblor Many alterations in people’s lives have Neonate Juvenile Adult steam at a temperature of 128°C and two at- Pisco been invoked to help explain this change, mospheres of pressure for half an hour. Bahia Inglesa including the facts that women now are When tested with autoclave indicator tape, better educated, more likely to have jobs or a material used routinely to make sure Source: “Use of nursery areas by the extinct megatooth shark run businesses, and have better access to Otodus megalodon”, J. L. Herraiz et al., 2020, Biology Letters autoclaves are working properly, it passed contraception than their antecedents of with flying colours, meaning it would have five decades ago. Also, demand for children successfully sterilised anything within the the University of Valencia and his col- to work as extra pairs of hands on family sterilisation chamber. leagues wondered if that had also been true farms has dropped. Demand for this product is likely to be of megalodons. As they report this week in None of these explanations, though, high. Some15% of hospital patients in low- Biology Letters, it seems it was. overlaps neatly with birth-rate curves. Oth- and middle-income countries get infected Shark nurseries are shallow coastal ar- er factors must be at work, too. And Jordan while receiving treatment, and surgery is eas that have abundant food available and Nickerson and David Solomon, professors an important cause of this iatrogenesis. Dr are, precisely because of their shallowness, of finance at the Massachusetts Institute of Zhao therefore hopes to have commercial difficult for predators like other, bigger Technology and Boston College respective- versions ready by 2022. Recognition for his sharks to move around in. Some 16m years ly, think they have found an intriguingly work, as Chamberland might have ob- ago part of north-eastern Spain, between counterintuitive one: America’s increas- served, could take a while longer. 7 what are now the cities of Barcelona and ingly protective child car-seat laws. Tarragona, was just such a shallow, protect- Their study, “Car seats as contracep- ed bay. And two quarries dug into the rock tion”, published in ssrn, a repository for Palaeontology that formed from the sediment in this bay so-called preprint papers that have yet to have yielded a number of megalodon teeth. undergo formal peer review, examines the Nursery days Shark’s teeth indicate, by their size and effect that car-seat policies may have had shape, the size of their possessor’s body. on American birth rates between 1973 and That is how O. megalodon’s adult length has 2017. During the Reagan era, only the truly been estimated. But body size within a spe- wee—tots aged under three—had normally cies is also a good indicator of age. Dr Her- to be secured in child-safety seats. But raiz and his colleagues therefore studied states’ governments have, since then, grad- How one of history’s most formidable the 25 best-preserved megalodon teeth ually ramped up the requirements. Today, marine predators raised its young from these quarries, to deduce the size dis- most places in America make children sit f sharks had bony skeletons, which tribution, and thus the age distribution, of in safety seats until their eighth birthdays. Ipreserve easily as fossils, rather than car- the sharks that had lived there. That concern for youngsters’ safety has had tilaginous ones, which do not, then Otodus To do so they used a formula for length the unintended consequence, Dr Nicker- megalodon would probably be as famous as determination worked out for great whites, son and Dr Solomon suggest, of fewer Tyrannosaurus rex. Even though only its the largest existing shark that hunts indi- three-child families. teeth are routinely available for study, it vidual prey. (There are larger species, such In drawing this conclusion they have has starred in at least one film, “The Meg”, as the whale shark and the basking shark, correlated census data with changes in released in 2018. Were it better known, a but these filter small prey from the water in state laws on safety seats. They discovered whole ocean-based franchise akin to “Ju- a manner similar to baleen whales.) Apply- that tightening those laws had no detect- rassic Park” might now exist. ing this formula to the teeth from the quar- able effects on the rates of births of first and No matter. It is still an intriguing ani- ries, they found that the sharks in question second children, but was accompanied by a mal. Adults are reckoned to have reached a had probably ranged in length from about drop, on average, of 0.73 percentage points length of 18 metres. (T. rex was 12 metres three to 14 metres. These animals were in the number of women giving birth to a from snout to tip of tail.) And megalodons, therefore either juveniles or small adults, third while the first two were young as they are called colloquially, lasted as a suggesting it was, indeed, a nursery. enough to need safety seats. That may not species from the beginning of the Miocene Thus encouraged, the researchers then sound much, but it is a significant fraction epoch 23m years ago to 3m years ago, dur- applied their method to eight other sites of the 9.36% of women in the sample who ing the Pliocene. That is far longer than T. from which megalodon teeth have been re- did become third-time mothers. rex’s brief appearance 68m-66m years ago covered (see chart). Four were similarly The authors also made two other perti- at the end of the Cretaceous. Their family youngster-dominated. The other four were nent observations. The reduction they saw life has, however, hitherto been obscure. dominated by adults. They therefore think was confined to households that did actu- Perhaps “family” is a slight exaggera- they have identified five megalodon nurs- ally have access to a car. And it was larger in tion. But many modern sharks lay their eries. The remainder, they suspect, were ei- households where a man was living with eggs (or, if viviparous, give birth) in places ther breeding grounds or feeding grounds the mother. The latter point is relevant, known as shark nurseries. Jose Herraiz of for grown-ups. 7 they think, because this man would take up1 Innovation@Work Virtual Week February 1st–5th 2021

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2 space in a vehicle that could otherwise be The death of Arecibo but also the surfaces of nearby planets and occupied by a child. passing asteroids. But it was as a radio tele- And space in the vehicle is the crucial Si monumentum scope that it truly excelled, making some factor. In pre-safety-seat days, squeezing crucial discoveries during the 1960s and three young children into the back of a requiris respicite 1970s, radio astronomy’s golden age. The family saloon was a perfectly feasible pro- most famous was a pair of pulsars—spin- position. Most such cars, though, can com- ning neutron stars—orbiting each other in fortably accommodate only two safety a way which was shown to prove Einstein’s seats. So, the older a child must be before general theory of relativity. Later data re- An era ends for radio astronomy no safety seat is required, the longer a fam- vealed planets around another pulsar. This ily must wait before a third child will fit in recibo observatory was conceived in was the first definitive detection of planets the car. Sometimes, that wait will mean no Aan era of space-age monumentalism, beyond the solar system. third child is ever conceived and born. an imposition of geometry onto geology as Arecibo was also used for radio astrono- Unless, of course, the family concerned striking in its simplicity and scale as the my’s wayward offshoot, the search for ex- buys a bigger car. And here things get yet greatest brutalist architecture. When the traterrestrial intelligence. Since 1960 radio more interesting, for the obvious reasons James Bond franchise, in its pomp a show- astronomers have occasionally employed not to do so—big cars cost more, and are case for iconic 1960s design, eventually got their instruments to look for artificial sig- more costly to run—may not be the only around to using the 306-metre dish as a lo- nals from the stars. In 1974, after an up- disincentive to changing. Dr Nickerson cation in the 1990s, the only surprise was grade that saw the original mesh replaced and Dr Solomon found, in fact, that the that it had taken so long. by a dish made up of 38,778 aluminium third-child deterrent appears stronger The observatory was not new to spy- panels, Arecibo was used to go a step fur- among wealthier families. As they observe, craft. It was created as a tool for using radar ther. It transmitted a 1,679-bit message to- “large cars like minivans also have class to study the ionosphere, an electrically wards a star cluster 25,000 light-years and aesthetic connotations that may make charged upper layer of the atmosphere. away. Encoded in this message were graph- people reluctant to switch even when they America’s defence department had an in- ical representations of basic biochemistry can afford to.” terest in such work, which might lead to and astronomy, and of the technology with new ways of characterising incoming mis- which it had been sent. Back-seat driver siles or of snooping on enemy transmis- Over time, technological advance erod- Oddly, though, the authors do not leave it at sions, so it stumped up some cash. ed the advantages of Arecibo’s sheer size, that. Instead, they point to previous stud- A free-standing dish big enough for the and its funding dwindled. The engineering ies which suggest that, for children over job would have been impractical. The de- began to show its age. In August one of the two, safety seats are no better than seat signers therefore looked for a hole in the cables supporting the instrument platform belts at protecting against death or serious ground to repurpose. They found it in snapped, damaging the dish. The snapping injury in a crash. They estimate that laws north-western Puerto Rico, a sinkhole of a second, in early November, seemed to requiring children to sit in special seats un- where the limestone landscape had col- presage imminent collapse. And so it is to til they are eight years old saved about 57 lapsed in just the right way. They built three be closed. lives in 2017 and contrast that number with towers on the sinkhole’s rim and hoisted But as the vegetation beneath the dish the 8,000 children who might have been the electronic heart of the instrument—the rises through its remains, and the site falls conceived and born in the absence of such bit which emits and receives radio waves— into picturesque ruin, the sketch of its rules. There is, they conclude, no “compel- into the empty space between them. Sig- cross-section encoded in that message ling social interest” in requiring child seats nals travelling to or from this equipment from the 1970s will continue on its way. It is for children over four. would bounce off eight hectares of wire already 46 light-years from Earth. Its pixels This seems weird. Comparing putative mesh stretched out beneath it. now constitute the farthest-flung memori- lives forgone to actual lives saved is, to put As a radar, Arecibo used the world’s big- al to a human achievement anywhere in it politely, a strange moral calculation. And gest dish to study not just the ionosphere the universe. And they always will. 7 the empirical basis for it is, in any case, doubtful. Alisa Baer, a paediatrician in New York who specialises in car-seat safety and who says she has installed at least 15,000 such seats over the years (she is known as “The Car Seat Lady”), says that this part of the paper is “completely preposterous”. Children’s car seats, she says, “save the quality of life” of children who would suf- fer higher rates of injury compared with simply belting up—including massive ab- dominal trauma and paralysis. A recent study by Mark Anderson at the University of Washington and Sina Sandholt at Co- lumbia University bears this point out. That does not, though, detract from the wider observation Dr Nickerson and Dr Sol- omon make that well-intentioned actions can have surprising knock-on effects. And one such, it seems, is that the back seats of American cars, once renowned as places where children were conceived, may now, themselves, be acting as contraceptives. 7 Farewell, my lovely Books & arts The Economist November 28th 2020 75

The underworld of empire like quicksilver through the fingers of im- perial powers. His shadow was found in li- Brothers in arms braries, cafés and boarding houses across France, in port cities such as Singapore and New York, and even in the London suburb of Ealing; one rumour had him as a pastry chef under the great Escoffier. His writings surfaced in illicit journals in China and Ko- A new history shows how, in the first half of the 20th century, a fraternity rea. But just when the Sûreté Générale of revolutionaries evolved across a continent picked up his scent again, he was gone. ate prisons. As the document circulated Nguyen Ai Quoc is emblematic of a glo- Underground Asia. By Tim Harper. Allen among the diplomatic missions and, with- bal underground of Asian nationalists and Lane; 864 pages; £35. To be published in in two months, hit the streets of Hanoi, the revolutionaries that is the subject of this America by Harvard University Press in security services knew that its author, superbly original book. In it, Mr Harper, a January; $39.95 Nguyen Ai Quoc—a pseudonym meaning historian at the University of Cambridge, “Nguyen the Patriot”—was in some way describes how in the first decades of the n june 1919 a petition circulated among important. They were to maintain that con- 20th century dreams took hold of a conti- Idelegates to the peace conference at Ver- viction for more than three decades. nent freed from imperial shackles—British sailles. The “Demands of the Annamite Briefly, Nguyen Ai Quoc would break shackles in India and South-East Asia, People” claimed to speak for the inhabit- cover, for instance to address political Dutch in the Dutch East Indies (modern- ants of the part of French Indochina that is meetings in Paris, scruffily dressed. Yet the day Indonesia), French in Indochina and today the heart of Vietnam. The petition, expanding secret-police files on him re- those of assorted European powers in Chi- Tim Harper writes, was one of many “into flected official frustration. He lied about na. These dreams were nurtured in the lim- which were decanted the hopes of entire his age, his name, his origins and his pro- inal cracks of empire: in steerage class peoples”. Its demands seemed moderate fession. He changed his accent to suit. along the new steamship routes connect- enough—things like freedom of the press, Time and again, Nguyen Ai Quoc slipped ing Asia with Europe and North America, in the right to education, abolition of govern- the doss houses of teeming port cities from ment by decree—and it was received po- Yokohama to Marseille, and among the Also in this section litely by Woodrow Wilson and even the modernist and radical circles in metropol- president of the French republic. 76 Ian McGuire’s new novel itan centres such as London and Paris. But its tone, of presuming to speak di- “Underground Asia” breaks new ground 77 An elegy for the whale rectly to power, got under the skin of the by showing how a collective consciousness French authorities, who had built an em- 77 Mozart’s genius emerged among revolutionaries on this pire in Indochina on the back of forced la- shifting terrain. Some were well-heeled, 78 Johnson: Average Joe bour, while plantations ran their own priv- sent to Europe with imperial blessing for a 1 76 Books & arts The Economist November 28th 2020

2 good education. Sumatran traditions en- the Sûreté and its counterparts had estab- chances. Some seized the moment and couraged young men like Tan Malaka to ex- lished ids, fingerprinting and rigorous re- rode to power. Today Nguyen Ai Quoc, he of pose themselves to “the largeness of the cord-keeping. They recruited narks and countless aliases, has one of Asia’s most world”; he went to the Netherlands. Others watchmen from the same waterfronts and teeming metropolises named after him: Ho were more like Nguyen Ai Quoc, whose fa- brothel areas inhabited by the revolution- Chi Minh City. Tan Malaka, by contrast, was ther, a local magistrate, was cashiered for aries. International co-operation was regu- devoured by the revolution he helped drunken violence, whose sister hung out larised when Interpol was founded in 1923. spawn—killed by his own side in the fight with pirates, and who worked his passage Radicals caught in the colonial net were against the Dutch and the British. to Europe as an ordinary seaman. All never- rounded up and sent to detention centres, Yet the lives of both men are testament theless shared resources and knowledge, such as at Port Blair in India’s Andaman Is- to an early premonition that, far from be- made alliances, or “were simply witness to lands or, in the case of Indonesians, to Bo- ing a morass of backwardness requiring each other, drawing strength from a sense ven Digoel, upriver in malarial New Guin- firm imperial tutelage, Asia lay, as Mr Har- of co-presence”. Activists from China, Ja- ea. Mr Harper argues that these camps were per writes, “at the forefront of human fu- pan and Vietnam struggled to understand a harbinger of the kind in which political tures”. And so, though many of the revolu- each other’s speech. But through “brush- undesirables would be held in Europe. tionaries he evokes are now forgotten—or, talk”—deploying the Chinese logograms After the devastation suffered by even for some Asian nations, too inconvenient common to all their writing systems—they the victorious powers during the second to remember—their underground stories laboriously exchanged ideas into the night. world war, Asia’s revolutionaries saw fresh still echo through time. 7 Back home this wave of consciousness fostered experiments in mass education and political instruction, a new culture Historical fiction popularised by radical “mosquito jour- nals”. It generated a powerful belief Cops and plotters that—as Narendra Nath Bhattacharya, the Indian revolutionary better known as M.N. Roy, put it—Europe was not the world. This was a fluid realm. Western ideas The Abstainer. By Ian McGuire. Random illness in Ireland, he took to drink, and raced back to Asia, transmuting into ac- House; 320 pages; $27. Scribner; £14.99 this job is his last chance. O’Connor is the tion. Anarchism, “the quintessential ideo- abstainer of the title, haunting coffee logy of exile”, shaded into the republican- et largely in the Greenland whale houses instead of saloons. ism of Giuseppe Mazzini and Sinn Fein. At Sfisheries of the 1850s, Ian McGuire’s The fictional copper arrives just as times, Islam claimed to transcend borders. “The North Water” (published in 2016) three real historical figures are to be was dark, violent and propulsive. It was hanged for the murder of a policeman; Back to the future snapped up for a television adaptation the men were Fenians (agitators for Irish After Nicholas II of Russia abdicated in 1917, starring Colin Farrell that is due to air independence) and afterwards became meanwhile, “the tempests of the world out- soon. That novel’s many admirers will known as the “Manchester Martyrs”. side blew directly into the households of wonder whether Mr McGuire’s new book, O’Connor sees that this is what they will Surabaya and Semarang.” On seizing pow- “The Abstainer”, has the same page- become, and that the hangings are mere- er, Vladimir Lenin had looked to Europe’s turning pull. ly cruelty and bombast: “Yet cruelty and working classes to foster wider revolution. This time the setting is tamer. It is bombast are what the English prefer.” When that hope fizzled, the revolutionary 1867 and James O’Connor, a Dublin po- His antagonist is Stephen Doyle. Born potential of Asian peasantries—whom Le- liceman, is on secondment in Manches- in Sligo, Doyle left for America as a teen- nin, like the colonialists, had hitherto ter, though the assignment is not of his ager and fought in the civil war; he has deemed backward—was reassessed. Asian choosing. He is a man adrift: when his now come to Manchester as a Fenian radicals were summoned to Moscow. beloved wife and young son died of operative. He has about him something Nguyen Ai Quoc, M.N. Roy and Tan Malaka of the terror of Henry Drax, the ani- were at the heart of what Mr Harper calls mating force of wickedness in “The the greatest missionary effort in Asia since North Water”, though Doyle’s character is the Jesuits set out to convert China, India softened by a compelling backstory and and Japan in the 16th century. the reader’s understanding of his ulti- In Asia, and even in imperial home- mate political aim. lands, action sometimes took violent form. This blend of politics, personal trage- Assassinations were attempted against the dy and revenge is moreishly compelling. British viceroy of India and the governor- The book’s powerful setting is almost a general of French Indochina. In early 1925 a character in itself. Mr McGuire teaches young Chinese woman with the bob-cut of creative writing in Manchester and his the “Modern Girl”, an attitude popularised passion for the city shines through. The in Shanghai and Tokyo before Paris or New physical world that he imagines assails York, walked into a welfare office in Kuala the reader’s senses: the stink of a tan- Lumpur and coolly tried to blow up two nery, the clangour of factory bells and the British functionaries. way O’Connor’s grief drives him to a Such violence aroused lurid fears of a ruthlessness beyond his nature. “yellow peril”. In truth, strikes and boycotts The novel’s weakness is its ending, targeting economies that required colonial when Mr McGuire swerves away from the subjects to be both producers and consum- consummation readers may be expect- ers had more effect. But by the late 1920s ing. A small shame—but it is still worth the authorities had the upper hand. Not One man’s martyr raising a toast to “The Abstainer”. least, borders were no longer porous, while The Economist November 28th 2020 Books & arts 77

Creatures of the deep all of which are eventually linked to anti- gles with life—crabs, fish, worms, bacteria. submarine warfare training. And after the “A whale body is, to this glitter splash of bi- Thar she blew 9/11terrorist attacks, researchers who were ology, a godsend,” writes Ms Giggs in one of monitoring stress hormones in North At- her finest turns of phrase. lantic right whales (by analysing their fae- When she encounters a live whale, she ces) noticed that their subjects had relaxed, feels herself shrink to the size of a pinhead presumably because most ships temporar- yet retains the detachment that she ap- ily returned to port and, for that time, the plies, elsewhere, to her observation of dead oceans were quiet. ones. She does not sense the affinity that Fathoms. By Rebecca Giggs. Simon & Death runs through the pages. Today it others aver. “Only the most witless individ- Schuster; 352 pages; $27. Scribe; £20 would be impossible to write a book about ual would believe in a benevolent connec- wo years ago your reviewer stood in an whales that did not combine a sense of awe tion with real whales,” she insists. In the Toffice overlooking the Pacific Ocean at with inevitable tragedy. But “Fathoms” is presence of leviathan, “the adrenalin in me the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research In- brilliantly full of wonder. A passage lingers was the kick of imminent danger.” 7 stitute in Moss Landing, California. Out- on whale lice, describing how, even now, side, giant pelicans sliced through the sea their genes hold traces of an epic migration air. Inside, the walls and windows were made by at least one right whale in the past Lives of the composers shaken by a below-bass note that boomed 1m-2m years. Another marvels at how the out of huge speakers. This, said John Ryan, decimation of whales in the oceans has Too beautiful an oceanographer, was the moan of a transformed ecologies on land: the past humpback whale, the darling of whale- movements of whaling communities can watchers, known for its impressive fin- be traced in aerial surveys of Arctic vegeta- and tail-slapping displays and haunting tion, in places made richer and greener by “song”. Most recordings of humpbacks buried giants. A third section asks whether seem almost violin-like, but this was conserving whale populations might help Mozart: The Reign of Love. By Jan Swafford. much, much deeper—barely a sound, more stabilise the climate. Whales draw carbon Harper; 832 pages; $45. Faber & Faber; £30 a vibration that was felt rather than heard. dioxide out of the atmosphere and down In the opening scene of “Fathoms”, Re- into the abyss, by fertilising tiny plankton he moment he saw an organ, Wolfgang becca Giggs describes a very different kind with their faeces, as well as when they die TAmadeus Mozart knew what to do with of encounter with a humpback: on a beach and sink to the sea floor. it. Aged six, already a prodigy on the clavier, in Perth, Australia, where a young giant had The tragedy is detached rather than he encountered pedals and stops for the found itself stranded. For three days, she gory. In places it is beautiful. The afterlife first time in an Austrian church. Within witnessed its enormous mass crushing its of a whale is tracked from the surface, moments he was accompanying mass and vital organs; the blubber that evolved over where its floating carcass is pecked, improvising freely. In the following year, millions of years to keep the species alive chewed and debrided by scavengers, down 1763, an official in Heidelberg was so aston- in the frigid abyss now had the opposite ef- through the water column, past fish that ished by his organ-playing that he had a fect. The humpback, she says, “was boiling resemble “bottled fireworks”, to its resting plate engraved for his church to mark the alive in the kettle of itself”. place on the seabed. There, “the ballooning boy’s visit. Mozart composed his first sym- Stirred by this encounter, Ms Giggs em- mass scatters skin and sodden flesh…upon phony at eight. His father wrote that “every barks on a poetic exploration of the largest which grows a carpet of white worms.” One day God performs fresh miracles through creatures alive today. “Fathoms” is a series “whale fall” feeds entire ecosystems. It jig- this child.” of essays that span aeons and vast amounts Youthful promise often wanes. With of space, from the bottom of the ocean to Mozart the reverse was true: his precocity the far reaches of the solar system. The only hinted at the wonders to come. Voyager probe carries a recording of hump- Through him classical music may have back song; ionic bursts at the surface of the found its most ideal expression. As Jan Sun ricochet through space, provoke the Swafford writes in his outstanding biogra- shimmery displays of the Northern Lights phy, Mozart’s compositions displayed “a and eventually disrupt the geomagnetic- kind of effortless perfection so easily worn field maps that whales use to orient them- that they seem almost to have written selves. Throughout, Ms Giggs weaves the themselves”. He drafted quickly, often human and whale stories around a central without needing to revise. He “could dis- question: did the conservationists of the pense delight by the yard”. A man of his late 20th century save the whales from ex- time rather than a reactionary like Bach or a tinction-by-slaughter, only to deliver them revolutionary like Beethoven, Mozart was to a more insidious demise? From plastics equally at home composing for the concert to toxins, warming oceans, melting sea ice, salon or the opera stage. acidifying waters and modified sound- Mr Swafford eschews myths about tor- scapes, humanity is warping everything tured genius. Mozart, he insists, “was fun- that whales need to live and thrive. damentally a happy man”. Despite his nat- Many of these changes are reflected in ural gifts, he worked relentlessly to master the whales themselves. Their flesh, guts, his art. He enjoyed a contented and loving blood and even their song are all, in this marriage, and deftly parried his scheming telling, a record of human activity. One father, who clung to his coat-tails while re- whale is found to have ingested an entire senting his success. As he made his life’s greenhouse. Postmortems performed on journey from Salzburg to Vienna he re- others reveal gas-bubble lesions, ruptured mained childlike and obscene, fixated on ear canals and abnormal nitrogen levels, The saddest song bottoms. Mr Swafford describes “an inex-1 78 Books & arts The Economist November 28th 2020

2 plicable force of nature who could rise brightness” and “indefatigable energy”; reckons. As his characters scrambled from a luminous improvisation at the cla- the Piano Trio in B-flat Major has “only a around the stage, lost in the human com- vier for a round of meowing like a cat and touch of galant preciousness”. “Eine kleine edy, Mozart gave them divine arias. leaping over the furniture”. Nachtmusik” is “crystalline perfection”. He was admired but not adored in his He is the subject of many biographies, Mozart’s way with melody and keen time. Most of his music adhered to conven- but the leading one, by Hermann Abert, is view of human nature—his letters reveal tional structures yet went over the heads of 100 years old and 1,600 pages long. Mr an almost Dickensian ability to paint char- the average listener. Legend has it that his Swafford, himself a composer and a pro- acter—combined to elevate opera from most important patron, Emperor Joseph II, gramme-writer for the Boston Symphony light fare to a serious medium, the author reacted to one performance with back- Orchestra, offers an updated, accessible contends. “His wit, his often-mordant handed criticism: “Too beautiful for our and authoritative life, beautifully written scrutiny of people and their foibles, his fas- ears, my dear Mozart, and monstrous many and full of astute critical judgments and in- cination with the frenzies of love and love- notes!” Mozart, irrepressible and ever cisive notes on the works. The overture to making—all this made him the consum- cheeky, supposedly replied: “Exactly as “The Marriage of Figaro” is all “quicksilver mate composer” of the form, Mr Swafford many as necessary, Your Majesty!” 7 Johnson Average Joe

The president-elect lacks a silver tongue and makes for poor tv. That may be an asset uring the Obama years, the Onion, a clear that he did not mean previous Afri- out, the contrasting styles of his prede- Dsatirical online newspaper, carried a can-American candidates lacked cleanli- cessors may have made Mr Biden’s deep- series of articles about a man it referred ness, just that they had been less “main- ly prosaic register an asset after all. to as “Diamond Joe” and “The President stream”.) While vice-president, he stood Receiving his party’s nomination in of Vice”. It featured headlines like “Shirt- just a bit too close to a microphone as he 2008, Mr Obama said future generations less Biden Washes Trans Am in White said “This is a big fucking deal” into Mr might remember the occasion as “the House Driveway” and “Biden Huddling Obama’s ear at the signing ceremony for moment when the rise of the oceans With Closest Advisers on Whether to their health-care reform. He once asked a began to slow and our planet began to Spend 200 Bucks on Scorpions Tickets”. wheelchair-bound state senator to stand heal”. His high-flown rhetoric raised The real Joe Biden, then vice-presi- and be recognised. expectations to messianic levels. Dashed dent, was a teetotaling and avuncular These bloopers give the impression of a hopes led many voters to look for some- elder statesman, not a hair-metal-loving mouth running faster than a brain. Mr one who sounded as little like a poli- party animal. But the caricature of him as Obama was famous for long, thoughtful tician as possible. In 2016 that meant a a regular guy drew on an element of pauses; not so Mr Biden. His campaign political novice who eschewed focus- truth. The now-president-elect, the son speeches, like his questions as a longtime grouped formulations in favour of provo- of a second-hand-car salesman, will be Senate committee chairman, tended to cative, often vulgar tirades. Not only did the first president since Ronald Reagan ramble. He once mystifyingly called a voters not mind; Mr Trump’s outrageous to lack an Ivy League degree, having young student who asked a tough question style was hugely effective. His vernacular finished near the bottom of his class at a “lying, dog-faced pony soldier”. Accused delivery implied that he was a real boss, both the University of Delaware and of corruption by a voter in Iowa, a bit of not a backslapping hack, with unique Syracuse University’s law school. hotheaded “Diamond Joe” came out: he skills to get things done. But in office his And this is reflected in his use of called the man a “damn liar” and chal- coarseness turned some voters off, even language. In his speech, he is such an lenged him to a press-up contest. And he as it thrilled others. everyman as to defy parody. “Saturday mused that, were they in high school, he All that makes this an ideal time for Night Live”, which has featured imper- would “beat the hell” out of Mr Trump. Average Joe, for whom being able to talk sonators for every president since Chevy Instead, he beat him in politics, with fluidly at all was a hard-won achieve- Chase’s Gerald Ford, has yet to settle on a words rather than fists. As things turned ment. Mr Biden grew up with a severe memorable Joe Biden. Forced to name stutter, which he overcame as a young Bidenisms, you might single out “ma- man. In one of the most touching scenes larkey”, his favoured disparagement for of his campaign, he told a boy who stut- humbug, or “Here’s the deal”, to signal ters, “Don’t let it define you. You are that he’s about to cut the malarkey. His smart as hell.” Mr Biden took the boy’s favourite vocative is the folksy “Folks...”. number and called him with some tips In his first debate with Donald Trump, that had helped him; later the boy spoke perhaps the most arresting thing he said to the Democratic National Convention. was (to his constantly interrupting oppo- Even careful presidents make gaffes nent) “Keep yappin’, man.” under constant scrutiny. In office, Mr He is, it is true, known for gaffes, Biden will no doubt give comics plenty of though these are often overstated. Com- material to sharpen their imperson- peting with Barack Obama for the Demo- ations. But if he gets tongue-tied or says cratic nomination in 2007-08, Mr Biden the wrong thing every now and then, praised his future boss as “the first main- well, so do most people. After 12 years of stream African-American” to run for the extraordinary political speech, Amer- presidency, “who is articulate and bright icans may be ready for a president who and clean”. (A gap before “who” made sounds like them. Property 79

Tenders

MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND ENERGY NOTIFICATION OF CONTRACT 1. Name and Address of Contracting Authority: Ministry of Infrastructure and Energy, Republic of Albania. Address: Str. Abdi Toptani, No. 1, Tirana, Albania. 2. Name and address of the Contact Person: Mrs. Jonida Rika, Ministry of Infrastructure and Energy. E-mail: [email protected] Copied to: [email protected] 3. The Form, Object and Type of Contract: Selection of the successful bidder for the design, fi nancing, construction, operation, maintenance and transfer of a Solar Photovoltaic Facility, with an installed capacity of 70 MWp (peak power) as part of support measures, for the purchase of the energy produced by such capacity, and an additional installed capacity of 30 MWp, which will not be part of support measures (totaling 100 MWp of installed capacity) to be located at the Spitalla Site, Durres, Albania (Project). 4. Type of Competitive Procedure: Open Procedure. 5. Project Location: The PV Facility shall be located at the Spitalla Site, Durres, Albania. 6. Duration of Project Development Agreement: 30 years (as per specifi cations provided under Bidding Procedure Documents). Readers are recommended 7. Power Purchase Agreement: As part of the support measures, a Power Purchase Agreement to be entered into between the successful bidder and the offtaker, for a purchase capacity of 70 To advertise within the classified section, contact: to make appropriate enquiries MWp, for a duration of 15 years. UK/Europe and take appropriate advice 8. Bid Submission Deadline: 1 February 2021, at 16.00 hrs. CET, as per the conditions set forth Agne Zurauskaite - Tel: +44 20 7576 8152 before sending money, incurring in the Bidding Procedure Documents. [email protected] any expense or entering into a 9. Bid Opening: 8 February 2021, at 12.00 hrs. CET. binding commitment in relation North America to an advertisement. 10. Bid Validity Period: Bids must be valid for 180 days from the fi nal Bid Submission Deadline. Richard Dexter - Tel: +1 212 554 0662 11. Bid Security: A bid security, issued by a reputable bank, in the amount of Euro 400,000.00 [email protected] The Economist Newspaper (Euro four hundred thousand), to be valid for a period of 180 days from the fi nal Bid Submission Limited shall not be liable to any Deadline. Asia person for loss or damage 12. Purchase of Bidding Procedure Documents: Bidding Procedure Documents can be only Connie Tsui - Tel: +852 2585 3211 incurred or suffered as a result of purchased starting from 19th November 2020, against the payment of Euro 2,000 (two thousand). [email protected] his/her accepting or offering to 13. Bidding Eligibility and Evaluation: As set forth in the Bidding Procedure Documents. Middle East & Africa accept an invitation contained in Additional information about the Bidding Procedure documents can be obtained from the Philip Wrigley - Tel: +44 20 7576 8091 any advertisement published in Contracting Authority’s website: http://infrastruktura.gov.al/ [email protected] The Economist. 80 Economic & financial indicators The Economist November 28th 2020

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units % change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change latest quarter* 2020† latest 2020† % % of GDP, 2020† % of GDP, 2020† latest,% year ago, bp Nov 25th on year ago United States -2.9 Q3 33.1 -3.8 1.2 Oct 1.2 6.9 Oct -2.3 -14.9 0.9 -88.0 - China 4.9 Q3 11.2 1.8 0.5 Oct 2.9 4.2 Q3§ 1.7 -5.6 3.2 §§ 17.0 6.58 6.8 Japan -5.8 Q3 21.4 -6.4 -0.4 Oct 0.2 3.0 Sep 2.6 -11.3 nil -8.0 104 4.3 Britain -9.6 Q3 78.0 -11.3 0.7 Oct 1.0 4.8 Aug†† -1.5 -19.4 0.4 -42.0 0.75 2.7 Canada -13.0 Q2 -38.7 -5.8 0.7 Oct 0.7 8.9 Oct -2.1 -13.0 0.7 -75.0 1.30 2.3 Euro area -4.4 Q3 60.5 -8.0 -0.3 Oct 0.3 8.3 Sep 2.2 -9.1 -0.6 -21.0 0.84 8.3 Austria -14.3 Q2 -38.2 -6.4 1.3 Oct 1.1 5.5 Sep 1.1 -8.1 -0.4 -31.0 0.84 8.3 Belgium -5.1 Q3 50.2 -7.9 0.7 Oct 0.4 5.2 Sep -1.1 -9.7 -0.4 -33.0 0.84 8.3 France -4.3 Q3 95.4 -9.5 nil Oct 0.5 7.9 Sep -1.9 -10.7 -0.3 -29.0 0.84 8.3 Germany -4.0 Q3 38.5 -5.8 -0.2 Oct 0.5 4.5 Sep 5.5 -7.2 -0.6 -21.0 0.84 8.3 Greece -15.3 Q2 -45.4 -9.0 -1.8 Oct -1.4 16.8 Aug -2.9 -7.9 0.7 -73.0 0.84 8.3 Italy -4.7 Q3 81.8 -9.1 -0.3 Oct -0.2 9.6 Sep 2.6 -11.0 0.6 -72.0 0.84 8.3 Netherlands -2.5 Q3 34.5 -6.0 1.2 Oct 1.1 3.8 Mar 7.0 -6.0 -0.6 -33.0 0.84 8.3 Spain -8.7 Q3 85.5 -12.7 -0.8 Oct -0.3 16.5 Sep 0.5 -12.3 0.1 -37.0 0.84 8.3 Czech Republic -10.8 Q2 27.2 -7.0 2.9 Oct 3.2 2.8 Sep‡ -0.5 -7.7 1.3 -23.0 22.0 5.3 Denmark -7.6 Q2 21.1 -4.0 0.4 Oct 0.4 4.8 Sep 10.0 -6.3 -0.5 -13.0 6.25 8.6 Norway -0.2 Q3 19.7 -3.5 1.7 Oct 1.4 5.2 Sep‡‡ 3.1 -1.3 0.8 -56.0 8.86 3.7 Poland -8.0 Q2 34.5 -3.4 3.1 Oct 3.4 6.1 Oct§ 2.7 -8.0 1.3 -79.0 3.75 4.0 Russia -3.6 Q3 na -4.4 4.0 Oct 3.3 6.3 Oct§ 1.7 -4.3 6.1 -41.0 76.0 -15.7 Sweden -4.1 Q3 18.3 -3.9 0.3 Oct 0.4 7.8 Oct§ 4.3 -4.2 nil nil 8.53 13.0 Switzerland -8.3 Q2 -26.1 -4.3 -0.6 Oct -0.9 3.3 Oct 9.2 -4.6 -0.5 8.0 0.91 9.9 Turkey -9.9 Q2 na -3.9 11.9 Oct 12.0 13.2 Aug§ -4.5 -5.1 11.9 -22.0 7.96 -27.9 Australia -6.3 Q2 -25.2 -4.4 0.7 Q3 0.7 7.0 Oct 1.1 -7.6 0.9 -16.0 1.36 8.8 Hong Kong -3.5 Q3 11.8 -5.5 -0.1 Oct 0.4 6.4 Oct‡‡ 5.4 -5.9 0.7 -84.0 7.75 1.0 India -23.9 Q2 -69.4 -9.8 7.6 Oct 6.5 7.0 Oct 0.7 -7.8 5.9 -58.0 73.9 -3.0 Indonesia -3.5 Q3 na -2.2 1.4 Oct 1.9 7.1 Q3§ -1.8 -7.1 6.2 -88.0 14,148 -0.5 Malaysia -2.7 Q3 na -8.0 -1.5 Oct -1.1 4.6 Sep§ 2.1 -8.1 2.7 -76.0 4.09 2.2 Pakistan 0.5 2020** na -2.8 8.9 Oct 9.8 5.8 2018 -0.4 -8.0 9.9 ††† -150 159 -2.4 Philippines -11.5 Q3 36.0 -6.1 2.5 Oct 2.4 10.0 Q3§ 0.9 -7.8 3.0 -169 48.1 5.5 Singapore -5.8 Q3 42.3 -6.0 -0.2 Oct -0.4 3.6 Q3 18.0 -13.9 0.9 -83.0 1.34 2.2 South Korea -1.3 Q3 7.9 -1.2 0.1 Oct 0.5 3.7 Oct§ 3.8 -5.7 1.6 -10.0 1,109 6.1 Taiwan 3.3 Q3 18.9 2.1 -0.2 Oct -0.3 3.8 Oct 13.2 -1.5 0.3 -42.0 28.5 7.0 Thailand -6.4 Q3 28.8 -5.9 -0.5 Oct -0.8 1.9 Aug§ 3.1 -6.4 1.2 -26.0 30.3 -0.3 Argentina -19.1 Q2 -50.7 -11.3 37.2 Oct‡ 42.0 13.1 Q2§ 2.4 -9.2 na -464 80.8 -26.1 Brazil -11.4 Q2 -33.5 -5.2 3.9 Oct 3.1 14.4 Aug§‡‡ -0.4 -15.9 2.0 -262 5.34 -21.2 Chile -9.1 Q3 22.6 -5.9 2.9 Oct 2.9 12.3 Sep§‡‡ 0.2 -8.9 2.6 -66.0 772 3.0 Colombia -9.5 Q3 39.6 -7.3 1.7 Oct 2.6 15.8 Sep§ -4.6 -8.8 4.9 -135 3,622 -4.9 Mexico -8.6 Q3 57.4 -9.0 4.1 Oct 3.5 3.3 Mar 1.7 -5.3 5.6 -149 20.1 -3.1 Peru -9.4 Q3 187 -13.0 1.7 Oct 1.8 15.7 Oct§ -1.1 -9.2 4.0 -28.0 3.61 -6.1 Egypt -1.7 Q2 na 3.6 4.6 Oct 4.9 7.3 Q3§ -3.3 -8.8 na nil 15.7 3.1 Israel -1.9 Q3 37.9 -4.0 -0.8 Oct -0.6 4.7 Oct 3.8 -11.1 0.8 -7.0 3.32 4.5 Saudi Arabia 0.3 2019 na -5.2 5.8 Oct 3.4 9.0 Q2 -3.9 -10.9 na nil 3.75 nil South Africa -17.1 Q2 -51.0 -7.7 3.3 Oct 3.3 30.8 Q3§ -2.1 -16.0 8.9 40.0 15.3 -3.1 Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

Markets Commodities % change on: % change on: The Economist commodity-price index Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st % change on In local currency Nov 25th week 2019 Nov 25th week 2019 2015=100 Nov 17th Nov 24th* month year United States S&P 500 3,629.7 1.7 12.3 Pakistan KSE 40,377.5 -0.3 -0.9 Dollar Index United States NAScomp 12,094.4 2.5 34.8 Singapore STI 2,869.6 2.9 -11.0 All Items 135.1 136.9 15.9 23.1 China Shanghai Comp 3,362.3 0.4 10.2 South Korea KOSPI 2,601.5 2.2 18.4 Food 111.7 112.9 4.8 15.7 China Shenzhen Comp 2,254.3 -0.3 30.8 Taiwan TWI 13,738.8 -0.3 14.5 Industrials Japan Nikkei 225 26,296.9 2.2 11.2 Thailand SET 1,415.7 3.7 -10.4 All 157.0 159.3 24.7 28.6 Japan Topix 1,767.7 2.7 2.7 Argentina MERV 54,150.7 5.6 29.9 Non-food agriculturals 111.4 112.6 4.4 13.8 Britain FTSE 100 6,391.1 0.1 -15.3 Brazil BVSP 110,132.5 3.8 -4.8 Metals 170.5 173.1 29.5 32.0 Canada S&P TSX 17,313.1 2.5 1.5 Mexico IPC 42,200.6 -0.1 -3.1 Sterling Index Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,511.9 0.9 -6.2 Egypt EGX 30 11,068.4 0.7 -20.7 All items 155.5 156.4 13.4 18.4 France CAC 40 5,571.3 1.1 -6.8 Israel TA-125 1,519.7 2.3 -6.0 Germany DAX* 13,289.8 0.7 0.3 Saudi Arabia Tadawul 8,688.8 0.8 3.6 Euro Index Italy FTSE/MIB 22,303.6 3.1 -5.1 South Africa JSE AS 57,742.2 0.7 1.2 All items 126.2 127.9 15.5 14.2 Netherlands AEX 606.4 0.9 0.3 World, dev'd MSCI 2,589.7 1.8 9.8 Gold Spain IBEX 35 8,164.7 2.3 -14.5 Emerging markets MSCI 1,218.3 0.9 9.3 $ per oz 1,887.3 1,805.5 -5.5 23.7 Poland WIG 53,401.8 2.2 -7.7 Brent Russia RTS, $ terms 1,301.8 2.0 -16.0 $ per barrel 43.8 47.9 16.2 -21.4 Switzerland SMI 10,488.3 -0.7 -1.2 US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries Turkey BIST 1,325.5 2.4 15.8 Dec 31st Sources: Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Refinitiv Datastream; Australia All Ord. 6,888.2 2.4 1.3 Basis points latest 2019 Fastmarkets; FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool Services; Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional. Hong Kong Hang Seng 26,669.8 0.5 -5.4 Investment grade 147 141 India BSE 43,828.1 -0.8 6.2 High-yield 473 449 Indonesia IDX 5,701.0 2.6 -9.5 Sources: Refinitiv Datastream; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income For more countries and additional data, visit Malaysia KLSE 1,597.6 -0.4 0.6 Research. *Total return index. Economist.com/indicators Graphic detail Covid-19 and lockdowns The Economist November 28th 2020 81

→ Europe’s lockdowns have had less effect on mobility in autumn than in spring, but have still reduced the rate of new infections

Europe, impact of national lockdowns on mobility, by location 11 countries with lockdowns in spring and autumn 2020, as % of usual level* Spring lockdowns Autumn lockdowns

Supermarkets and pharmacies Places of work Public transport Bars, restaurants and shopping Lockdown 100 100

80 80 11-country average† 60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0 -4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4 Week of lockdown Week of lockdown

Europe, impact of national lockdowns on the viral spread rate (R) Changes in viral spread rate (R) caused by shifts in mobility Nine countries with lockdowns in spring and autumn 2020 From autumnal lockdowns in England and Wales, 2020 3.0 Lockdown -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0 0.05 Spring lockdowns 2.5 Supermarkets 9-country Autumn lockdowns and pharmacies* average† 2.0 Places of work* ↑ More new 1.5 infections Bars, restaurants 1.0 and shopping* 95% confidence Trips to 0.5 other areas‡

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Total effect Week of lockdown

Sources: Covid19-projections.com; Google; Teralytics; Blavatnik School of Government; Swapnil Mishra et al., Imperial College London; Sam Abbott et al., LSHTM *Baseline=median mobility by day of week, Jan 3rd-Feb 6th †Weighted by population ‡Baseline=median mobility by day of week, Feb

will be less compliant this time around. have also calculated which aspects of lock- Second act Google’s smartphone data confirm that downs matter most. We combined esti- Europe’s latest restrictions have had less mates of r from Imperial College London impact on daily life. In March the average with travel records from Teralytics, a Swiss number of trips—to places such as super- technology firm, and Google’s smartphone markets, restaurants, transport hubs and data. Then we used mediation analysis, a offices—fell to 35% of the level in January. statistical technique, to disentangle the ef- Europe’s new stay-at-home orders are After rebounding to 83% by the time of the fects of different types of mobility. slowing transmission of the virus latest lockdowns, mobility has now We found two ways that lockdowns ess than a year after covid-19 spread dropped only to 68%. This smaller effect suppress r. First, reducing trips to work Lacross the world, scientists have pro- could be caused both by more flexible rules helps, as do fewer outings to restaurants, duced several vaccines that may offer high and less enthusiasm for obeying them. bars and shops, though the effect of those immunity. But mass inoculation is months Yet these less stringent lockdowns are leisure settings may vary a lot. (Usage of away. Until then people must contain the still working. The London School of Hy- parks or public transport had no impact, virus by wearing masks, travelling less and giene and Tropical Medicine’s estimates of perhaps because visitors are outside or limiting contact with other households. r—the average number of new people who wearing masks.) Second, lockdowns deter Politicians who thought their citizens catch the virus from each infected per- people from travelling to other local au- would stop socialising of their own accord son—are dropping. In European countries thorities. This is probably the most impor- have been disappointed. America’s daily that enacted second lockdowns, r fell from tant factor in decreasing r overall. deaths are near record highs as the virus an average of 1.1 in the week before the new This is all good news. Looser lockdowns runs amok. Europe’s cases surged in Octo- restrictions to 0.9 in the week after. That cost less than total closures. And when ber, causing 11 governments to reimpose small change makes a big difference. Over governments reopen businesses, they can national stay-at-home orders. They hope four weeks, it would mean new infections mitigate extra mingling among customers these lockdowns will reduce infections to falling by 21%, rather than rising by 36%. by urging them to stay in their local areas, manageable levels for Christmas. But after For 334 local authorities in England and for now. That is the best way to get the virus a grim spring, they must worry that people Wales (akin to America’s counties), we under control before Christmas. 7 82 Obituary Jan Morris The Economist November 28th 2020

And then, at last, came the triumphant liberation of being a woman, as she had known she should be since toddlerhood. The “Why?” was unimportant, though it struck her as only common sense or, at least, good taste: gentleness against force, give more than take, yielding and accepting rather than pushing and initiat- ing. The subtle subjection, the condescension and assumed inferi- ority, were a small price to pay. The prurient curiosity of her le- gions of readers could be satisfied with a book about it all, called “Conundrum”, in 1974. Then she could resume her life. For what had really changed? Almost nothing. Her dispositions were as they had always been: a liking for cats and smart cars, moules and white wine, for speed, wind and great spaces, for the role of the loner and onlooker, and romanticism in the bones. The army still attracted her for its dash, courage, self-discipline and swagger. When she took a walk for exercise, she marched like a sol- dier. She remained married (though, between 1972 and 2008, for- mally divorced because illegal), to Elizabeth, with an intensity of love different from all others. They lived surrounded by the inti- mate presence of thousands of books, to which she chatted as friends. The writing went on seamlessly, every day and with any imple- ment available, navigating the wonderful, inexhaustible, shim- mering sea of words. Through the 1970s she continued and com- pleted a wistful three-volume history of the decline of the British Empire, “Pax Britannica”, her best work she thought, which had been started in the spirit of a Roman centurion witnessing the de- cline of Rome. She kept up the irresistible habit of visiting every Unaltered states city greater than Bucharest, barging in uninvited and ignorant with the same voracious cheek to wander and record impressions: sparkling Manhattan, where Fred Astaire might dance at any mo- ment down Fifth Avenue; Sydney, vacuous and frigid at the soul; Beirut, a Carmen among cities, tossing its curls and flouncing its skirts; Cairo, with its smell of unrefined petrol, dust, jasmine and Jan Morris, journalist, essayist and historian, died on new concrete. She retained the old love of shifting places, not quite November 20th, aged 94 fixed, such as name-changing Trieste and St Petersburg, crossed by onsidering her life, as she most liked to, from the sprawling both snow-light and sea-light. Above all, she kept Venice. To drift Cstone stables of Trefan Morys in north Wales among trees, owls on inky waters in a gondola at night, slightly drunk, watching the and waters, Jan Morris divided it into three parts. For the first 35 pale buildings pass, was a sublimation as good as sexual. In those years she had been James Morris, a soldier and an intrepid report- years of sexual misery, it was compensation. er. For a decade after that, as she took the hormone pills that gradu- But far too much was made of organs. Gender was distinct from ally lightened and rejuvenated her, she was an androgynous crea- sex, a more fundamental reality, based not in the loins so much as ture, untethered and strange. Then, from 1972 and the procedure in in head and heart. It was an inner music, a light and shade. For her Casablanca that permanently altered her body, she was herself. “the conundrum thing” was less a matter of science than a divine James, however, had not gone anywhere. He was still about: the allegory, a union of selves. One had absorbed the other, and noth- little lad with his precious telescope already trained on the blue ing was discarded. As with writing about a place, which was also a mountains of Wales, the Christ Church choirboy piping in his search for unity of a sort, hard facts were less important than feel- white and scarlet, the intelligence officer rattling in jeeps through ing, mood and even imagination. These produced a subtler, perso- the deserts of Arabia, the craver for fire, salt and laughter as a writer nal truth. Even the British Empire was evoked in looks, smells and for the Manchester Guardian. He was a handsome man, tall, lean sensations, the dates left vague. Her first drafts were usually and sinewy, exulting as young men could in the full, controlled stream-of-consciousness, letting it all go through; her second in- power of his body. In 1953, when he was working for the Times, he serted the more sober, conscious self, often, she thought, wrongly. accompanied Sir Edmund Hillary’s Everest expedition (though he She attributed her mystical feelings largely to Wales, the land of had never climbed a mountain before) and brought back the world her fathers, damp, demanding and bemusing as she knew it to be, scoop that the peak had been conquered. That slithering, bound- but also worked through with allusions, lore and magic and under- ing descent to the telegraph office, forcing his way down a glacier pinned by kindness. In “The Matter of Wales” she declared herself a as if sparks flew from him, and the sending of the message in firm nationalist, though the softness and humour of England “skulldug” code to London in time for the queen’s coronation, was pleased her. Something of Wales, she wrote, lurked and smiled be- the best memory of his life, and hers. hind all her writings, for she owned it, every lichened boulder, ev- Of the androgynous years there was less to report. Commis- ery spin of the pit wheel, like all her places. She was one with the sions flooded in, incessant travelling went on, books were written peasants, the miners, the mythmakers and the shape-changers. and much praised. But the work was now freelance, not for any em- There at Trefan Morys, on the banks of the river Dwyfor that ran, ployer, and despite marriage and children a sense of tormented loudly through weed and moss, round a tiny island where her solitude descended. Fame seemed repugnant, as part of maleness. ashes would be scattered, she planned to spend most of the after- In Africa or India people inquired whether this visitor was a man, a life wandering with Elizabeth. She foresaw the odd excursion, woman, or some holy hermaphrodite. The body became disturb- though, to the seafront at Trieste, the city that always looked over ing and could not be shown, except to a small deserted lake high in its shoulder at the tangled illusions and yearnings of the past, to the Welsh hills that embraced it with no questions. toast its sweet melancholy with a glass of sparkling wine. 7 What is the outlook for vaccines, the world economy and geopolitics in the year ahead?

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