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Greatview Aseptic Packaging Target Price: HKD3.90 Price: HKD4.71 Weak Orders in China Likely a Drag to 1H17 Market Cap: Usd806m Bloomberg Ticker: 468 HK

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Greatview Aseptic Packaging Target Price: HKD3.90 Price: HKD4.71 Weak Orders in China Likely a Drag to 1H17 Market Cap: Usd806m Bloomberg Ticker: 468 HK Company Update Hong Kong 10 July 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Packaging Sell (from Neutral) Greatview Aseptic Packaging Target Price: HKD3.90 Price: HKD4.71 Weak Orders In China Likely a Drag To 1H17 Market Cap: USD806m Bloomberg Ticker: 468 HK Following a recent conversation with the company prior to its blackout Share Data period, we expect Greatview to report a weak 1H17. This is as orders from Avg Daily Turnover (HKD/USD) 39.9m/5.12m its biggest dairy customers – Mengniu and Yili – have been flat to 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) 3.67 - 5.24 negative YoY respectively while GPM faces raw material inflation pressure. Its key growth driver – its European expansion – may mitigate Free Float (%) 84 the weakness with a faster-than-expected ramp-up but its contribution Shares outstanding (m) 1,346 would be back-end loaded in 2H17F. Downgrade to SELL (from NEUTRAL) Estimated Return -17% with a lower HKD3.90 TP (from HKD4.00, 17% downside) as the share price rally in June has not been supported by its fundamental outlook, Shareholders (%) which appears to be increasingly challenging. Jardine Matheson 28.2 Management 16.0 Decline in China may continue. We learnt that production volumes in China Prudential 8.8 have been generally weak. A key customer, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial (Yili) (600887 CH, NR), diverted a significant portion of its orders after 1Q17 to a Share Performance (%) packaging company, XINJUFENG Technology Packaging Co Ltd (XINJUFENG YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Pack), which the former owns a minority stake in it. Specifically, Yili stopped Absolute 18.3 (4.9) 18.3 24.9 26.3 orders of UHT milk packaging from Greatview Aseptic Packaging (Greatview), but maintained its smaller order of chilled yogurt packaging. Its other key Relative 2.6 (2.8) 13.4 11.7 2.1 customer – China Mengniu Dairy’s (Mengniu) (2319 HK, NEUTRAL, TP: Source: Bloomberg HKD17.00) procured volume stayed flat vs last year. Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) GPM squeeze from raw materials inflation. The company mentioned that its Price Close Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS) raw material costs continued to rise for Jan-May. The prices of paper and 5.5 117 petroleum, proxies for liquid paper board (LPB) and polyethylene, have risen 5.0 107 c10% and 28% YoY in 1H17 respectively. While LPB’s price may be less 4.5 97 4.0 87 volatile as it is semi-finished material, undoubtedly Greatview would feel some 3.5 77 350 margin pressure nonetheless. This has certainly been the case for 2H16, 300 though the company explained that it can mitigate some of the impact from 250 200 more efficiently-run operations and product mix upgrade. 150 100 Europe may outperform guidance in FY17F. We also learnt that the trial 50 Volm 16 16 17 16 17 production has started in April for its second production line in its German 17 - - - - - - Jul Jan Mar Nov Sep factory in Halle. This appears at the top end of its guidance for a “mid-year” May production start. Thus its Europe business may grow faster than the company’s official guidance of +25% YoY sales growth, in our view. We note however the Source: Bloomberg bulk of the contribution ie sales increase, GPM improvement should kick-in in the second half, so 1H17 would not see a significant boost. Downgrade to SELL. We believe growth in FY17F would be back-end loaded in 2H17F primarily due to the contribution from its production capacity expansion in Europe. As such, 1H17 should likely be weak due to its lost business in China. We reduce our forecasts by 2-8% for FY17F-19F to reflect a weaker China business and pressure from raw materials inflation. Our DCF- based TP is HKD3.90 implying 14x FY17F, which is 0.5SD below its 5-year mean P/E. We note that its share price has gained after a unit of Jardine Matheson purchased a 22% stake at HKD5.00/share via the secondary market. However, we think weak fundamentals do not justify the share price rally and thus drag its price down in the near term. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F Total turnover (CNYm) 2,219 2,169 2,331 2,537 2,699 Reported net profit (CNYm) 317 334 338 373 385 Recurring net profit (CNYm) 339 336 338 373 385 Recurring net profit growth (%) 15.4 (0.9) 0.7 10.2 3.4 Recurring EPS (CNY) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.28 0.29 DPS (CNY) 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 Recurring P/E (x) 16.3 16.3 16.2 14.7 14.2 P/B (x) 2.50 2.40 2.29 2.19 2.46 P/CF (x) 14.7 8.3 13.1 13.9 12.7 Dividend Yield (%) 4.3 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Analyst EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 9.4 9.0 8.2 8.5 Robin Yuen, CFA Return on average equity (%) 14.6 14.9 14.4 15.2 16.3 Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash +852 2103 9202 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 1.1 (0.5) (5.6) [email protected] Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Powered by the EFA Platform Greatview Aseptic Packaging Hong Kong Company Update 10 July 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Packaging Financial Exhibits Financial model updated on : 2017-07-06 Asia Financial summary Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F Hong Kong Recurring EPS (CNY) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.28 0.29 Consumer Non-cyclical EPS (CNY) 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.28 0.29 Greatview Aseptic Packaging DPS (CNY) 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 Bloomberg 468 HK BVPS (CNY) 1.64 1.71 1.79 1.87 1.67 Sell Weighted avg adjusted shares (m) 1,346 1,338 1,338 1,338 1,338 Valuation basis Valuation metrics Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F DCF Recurring P/E (x) 16.3 16.3 16.2 14.7 14.2 P/E (x) 17.4 16.4 16.2 14.7 14.2 Key drivers P/B (x) 2.50 2.40 2.29 2.19 2.46 i. Volume sales of dairy products; FCF Yield (%) 4.6 9.9 5.8 5.4 6.0 ii. Raw material deflation; Dividend Yield (%) 4.3 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 iii. Capacity utilisation. EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 9.4 9.0 8.2 8.5 Key risks EV/EBIT (x) 12.7 11.4 11.1 9.9 10.2 i. Dairy slowdown; ii. Price competition Income statement (CNYm) Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F Total turnover 2,219 2,169 2,331 2,537 2,699 Company Profile Gross profit 618 617 642 714 753 Listed in Dec 2010, Greatview Aseptic Packaging EBITDA 493 515 533 580 598 (Greatview) supplies aseptic packs for dairy and non- Depreciation and amortisation (87) (90) (101) (101) (101) carbonated soft drinks producers under the trade Operating profit 406 425 433 479 497 name of “GA Pack”. Its major customers include Net interest 10 7 6 6 6 Mengniu, Yili and Huierkang Orient Xiamen Food. The group is the second-largest aseptic packaging Pre-tax profit 412 431 439 485 503 manufacturer in China with a c.15% market share Taxation (96) (97) (101) (113) (118) Recurring net profit 339 336 338 373 385 Cash flow (CNYm) Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F Change in working capital (44) 246 (11) (70) (45) Cash flow from operations 375 658 419 395 432 Capex (122) (115) (100) (100) (100) Cash flow from investing activities (106) (108) (92) (92) (92) Dividends paid (217) (252) (265) (265) (265) Cash flow from financing activities (463) (245) (265) (265) (265) Cash at beginning of period 490 268 206 269 307 Net change in cash (194) 306 63 38 75 Ending balance cash 292 575 269 307 383 Balance sheet (CNYm) Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F Total cash and equivalents 457 732 795 833 526 Tangible fixed assets 1,235 1,258 1,258 1,257 1,257 Intangible assets 58 57 57 57 57 Total other assets 46 53 53 53 53 Total assets 2,865 2,892 3,020 3,128 2,883 Short-term debt 87 105 105 105 105 Other liabilities 91 85 85 85 85 Total liabilities 661 605 621 623 652 Shareholders' equity 2,205 2,287 2,399 2,506 2,231 Total equity 2,205 2,287 2,399 2,506 2,231 Net debt (369) (627) (690) (728) (421) Total liabilities & equity 2,865 2,892 3,020 3,128 2,883 Key metrics Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F Revenue growth (%) (0.6) (2.2) 7.5 8.8 6.4 Recurrent EPS growth (%) 14.5 (0.3) 0.7 10.2 3.4 Gross margin (%) 27.8 28.4 27.5 28.1 27.9 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 22.2 23.7 22.9 22.9 22.1 Net profit margin (%) 14.3 15.4 14.5 14.7 14.3 Capex/sales (%) 5.5 5.3 4.3 3.9 3.7 Interest cover (x) 113 286 207 229 238 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Greatview Aseptic Packaging Hong Kong Company Update 10 July 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Packaging Figure 1: Oil prices increased significantly during 1H17 Source: RHB Figure 2: Wood pulp prices increased during 1H17 as well Source: RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Greatview Aseptic Packaging Hong Kong Company Update 10 July 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Packaging Figure 3: Changes to earnings estimates Source: RHB Figure 4: Geographical breakdown Source: RHB, Company data See important disclosures at the end of this report 4 Greatview Aseptic Packaging Hong Kong Company Update 10 July 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Packaging Figure 5: DCF valuation (CNYm) FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F FY21F FY22F FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F Term Val.
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