ISSN 20799705, Regional Research of , 2013, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp. 365–375. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2013. Original Russian Text © D.V. Zhitin, 2013, published in Izvestiya Russkogo Geograficheskogo Obshchestva, 2013, Vol. 145, No. 3, pp. 67–82. POPULATION GEOGRAPHY

Changes in the Settlement Pattern of the Russian Ethnos within the Boundaries of the Russian Federation from the Second Half of the 20th Century to the Early 21st Century D. V. Zhitin St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, 199034 Russia email: [email protected] Received November 6, 2012

Abstract—Significant changes in the settlement pattern of the Russian ethnos occurred in the period between the population censuses of the Russian Federation in 1959 and 2010. In more than half of the regions (con temporary federal subjects), the share of in the population changed by more than 5%: in 20 regions, decreased; in 23 regions, increased. The cause of such changes is first of all assimilation processes proceeding at different rates in the case of ethnic contacts between Russians and representatives of other ethnoses of the Russian Federation. Changes in the localization level of the most numerous ethnic groups during the last 50 years confirm the thesis on different directions and rates of ethnic processes. The level of passionarity and cultural and historical differences determine the character of the ethnic interaction between the Russians and other ethnic groups populating Russia. From Gumilev’s theory of ethnogenesis, we can draw a conclusion of a dependence between changes in the settlement of the Russian ethnos and the nature of ethnic contacts within the Russian Federation from the second half of the 20th century to the early 21st century.

Keywords: ethnos, passionarity, assimilation, the Russians, the Russian Federation, region, ethnic composi tion, diffusion, ethnic localization DOI: 10.1134/S2079970514010109

The Russian Federation is one of the most multi with the rest of nations in the Russian Federation, it is ethnic states of the world as the 2010 Population Cen necessary to distinguish the Russians—the main sus counted more than 120 ethnoses and ethnic groups stateforming ethnos of Russia. (subethnoses) that consider the territory of Russia to be their historical homeland. In the process of centu For studying the nature and dynamics of assimila riesold interactions, the ethnic groups in the Russian tion processes within the territory of the Russian Fed Federation contacted among themselves with different eration, where the Russian ethnos takes part, the most levels of intensity, adopting elements of material and descriptive are the following indices: (1) the share of spiritual culture from one another differently. In the ethnically mixed marriages in the general number of course of such contacts, assimilation of ethnoses was families, (2) national selfidentification of children in happening due to differences in the level of passionar ethnically mixed families, and (3) differences between ity and the mutual complimentary character of inter the native language and the ethnical selfdetermina acting ethnic groups [2, p. 33]. tion of representatives of different nations. The can cellation of the fixation of nationality in registry Most ethnic groups of the Russian Federation have offices prevents from obtaining essential information accurately localized communities, beyond the bound concerning the first two indices but still preserves the aries of which representatives of a particular ethnic possibility to collect data while holding selected socio group live in small numbers and mainly in major cities. logical studies that actually narrows the possibilities This fact complicates the research on the mutual for scientific findings. In population censuses con assimilation of ethnoses that practically do not contact ducted in postSoviet Russia (in 2002 and 2010), the between each other in the absence of a common living question regarding nationality was unchanged, but in territory (for example, the Kabardinians and the the 2002 Population Census form the question regard Udmurts or the Altaians and the Mordvinians). At the ing the native language was excluded and that fact did same time, some nations living in the territory of Rus not give an opportunity to compare the results with the sia are represented by rather numerous groups in most data on ethnic affiliation and thereby to take into con subjects of the federation. Among the most numerous sideration the gap between the two indices as indica ethnic groups in the country, continuously contacting tors of assimilation processes.

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Legend less than 50% from 70 to 90% from 50 to 70% more than 90%

Fig. 1. Share of Russians in the total population in 1959, %.

The abovementioned reasons considerably com The period analyzed (from 1959 to 2010) is a rather plicate the possibility to measure the rate of assimila short historical time interval but nevertheless tion processes of different ethnic groups and the embraces more than half of the century which corre reached level of assimilation. Nevertheless, the avail sponds to the period of alternations of two genera able data of population censuses held in in the period tions. The data collected during the population cen from the second half of the 20th century to the early suses of 1970, 1979, 1989, and 2002 enable to analyze 21st century enable to describe the nature and dynam the dynamics and orientation of the change in the ics of interethnic interaction processes within the ter quantitative indices of spread of the Russians and other ethnoses within the Russian Federation. ritory of the Russian Federation by means of an anal ysis of the alternation of the diffusion indices of the In the middle of the 20th century, the Russian most numerous ethnos—the Russians. In the period nation made up the absolute majority of the popula tion in 70 out of the 83 regions of the Russian Federa from the end of the Great Patriotic War to 1959, when 2 the first postwar population census was carried out, the tion . According to the 1959 allunion population country did not experience global demographic cata census, the share of Russians was 83.3% of the popu clysms, and this fact enables to reckon on the objectiv lation of the Russian Federation; in 30 regions and ter ity of the data obtained. An important point influenc ritories of Russia, the index exceeded 90%; in ing the comparability of the obtained data and, conse 32 regions, it was from 70 to 90%; in 8, from 50 to quently, the accuracy of calculations is the fact that the 70%; and in 13, less than 50% (Fig. 1). The largest administrative and territorial division at a higher level share of Russians has been historically observed in (federal subjects) has been unchanged to present day: European regions; the smallest one, in the autono the boundaries between regions, territories, republics, mous republics of the North (Checheno– Ingushetia, Kabardino–Balkaria, North Ossetia, and and autonomous districts have not changed since ), the Volga–Ural area (Chuvashia, Mari El, 1 1959 . Tatarstan, and Bashkortostan), and (Tyva and Yakutia) [5]. 1 The separation of autonomous republics and districts from ter In the following 50 years, significant changes hap ritories and regions in 1991 and the reunification of some of pened in the ethnic composition of Russia and the them in the 2000s with regions from which they had separated earlier do not an impact on the correctness of the results of the spatial localization of Russians. Despite the fact that population censuses at the beginning and at the end of the con sidered period. 2 Within the boundaries of the existing federal subjects.

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Legend less than 50% from 70 to 90% from 50 to 70% more than 90%

Fig. 2. Share of Russians in the total population in 2010, %. the share of Russians, indicating their ethnical affilia Belarussians. Thus, if in 1959, in Sakhalin oblast, 3 Ukrainians and Belarussians made up 7.4 and 2.1%, in tion changed slightly (in 2010, it made up 80.9%) in 2010, this share was 2.6 and 0.6%, respectively. In the Russian Federation, the situation became com Magadan oblast, over the same period of time, the pletely different. At the same time, the number of Rus share of Ukrainians decreased from 14.0 to 6.5%; the sians in absolute numbers increased over 50 years by share of Belarussians, from 2.4 to 0.8%. A similar only 13.4%: it is much lower than the increase in Rus trend toward an increase in the share of Russians and sia’s total population (21.5%). Currently, in 13 auton a decrease in the share of Ukrainians and Belarus omous republics, ethnic Russians make up less than sians is observed in Khabarovsk and Primorsky krais, 50% of the population; in three (Ingushetia, Chech Kemerovo and Tomsk oblasts, Altai krai, and in most nya, and Dagestan), their share does not exceed 5%; other regions of Siberia and the Far East. The reason and in six, (Tyva, North Ossetia, Kabardino–Balkaria, is the assimilation of Ukrainians and Belarussians, as Karachay–Cherkessia, Kalmykia, and Chuvashia), this index is less than onethird of the population. In well as their return to the historical homeland being a 11 out of the 83 federal subjects, the share of Russians massive phenomenon in the 1990s. Only in national varies from 50 to 70%; in 19, from 70 to 90%; and in republics of Siberia, such as Altai, Buryatia, Yakutia, 40, more than 90% (Fig. 2). and Tyva, the share of the Russian ethnos decreased by more than 10% because of two factors: a high birth In the period from 1959 to 2010, in 47 out of rate of indigenous ethnoses of Siberia and mass out the 83 federal subjects, the share of Russians flow of Russians from these regions in the period decreased; in 36 subjects, increased. During 50 years, from the second half of the 20th century to the early in 43 regions of Russia, the share of Russians changed 21st century [9]. by more than 5% (Fig. 3). During the same period of time, the share of Russians decreased in 20 regions In the European part of the country, the greatest and increased in 23. Let us examine the nature of these increase in the share of Russians happened in autono changes more in greater detail. mous republics with Finno–Ugric populations: Kare lia, Komi, Udmurtia, and Perm krai. In these regions, Out of the 23 Russian regions where the share of the increase in the share of Russians was due to a Russians increased significantly, 15 are situated in decrease in the share of Finno–Ugric groups. Thus, in Siberia and the Far East (Table 1). The increase in the Karelia, during the period 1959–2010, the share of the share of the Russian ethnos in these regions happened major ethnos increased from 13.1 to 7.4%; in Komi, owing to a decrease in the share of Ukrainians and from 30.4 to 23.7%; and in Udmurtia, from 35.6 to 3 In accordance with the 2010 Population Census of the Russian 28.0%. In Perm krai, the share of the most numerous Federation, more than 5.6 mln people (3.94% of the popula Finno–Ugric ethnos (the Komi–Permiak group) tion) did not indicate their nationality. decreased from 4.6 to 3.2% during 50 years. At the

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Legend increase by more than 20% decrease by more than 20% increase from 10 to 20% decrease from 10 to 20% increase from 5 to 10% decrease from 5 to 10%

Fig. 3. Change in the share of Russians in the population of regions from 1959 to 2010, %. same time, in these regions, not only the share of ern region of the Russian Federation—Kaliningrad Finno–Ugric groups decreased but also their absolute oblast—developed in the period from the second number: the Komi–Permiak group, by 15%; the half of the 20th century to the early 21st century. Udmurt group, by 14%; the Komi group, by 17%; and However, in this case, the main assimilating ethnos the Karelian group, by almost a factor of 2. was not the Ukrainians but the Belarussians, whose share in the period from 1959 to 2010 decreased During 50 years, the share of Russians increased by from 9.4 to 3.6%. 5–10% in Orenburg and Chelyabinsk oblasts (from 70.9 to 75.9% and from 79.7 to 83.8%, respectively) At the same time, for more than 50 years from (Table 1). As in Volga oblast, in these regions, the 1959, in 20 regions of Russia, the share of Russians increase in the share of Russians occurred because of a decreased. It mostly concerned national republics of decrease in the number of other nations in the Volga– the North Caucasus, where simultaneously with a sig 4 nificant increase in the total population the share and Ural region . So, in , during the absolute number of Russians decreased. Thus, the period from 1959 to 2010, the share of Mordvinians share of the Russian population in Adygei decreased decreased from 5.2 to 1.9%; that of Chuvashes, from from 70.4 to 63.6%; in Karachay–Cherkessia, from 1.2 to 0.6%; and that of Germans, from 1.9 to 0.6%. In 51.0 to 20.8%. During 1959–2010, in Dagestan, the Chelyabinsk oblast, during the same period, the share of share of Russians decreased from 20.1 to 3.6%, and the Mordvinians, Germans, and Chuvashes also decreased Russian population almost moved from the territory of by a factor of 2–3. However, as in the regions of Siberia the former Chechen–Ingush Autonomous Soviet and the Far East, the share of Ukrainians decreased Socialist Republic (Tables 1–2). If in 1989 in the city most of all: from 7.0 to 2.5% in Orenburg oblast and of Grozny and the northern valley districts of the from 4.5 to 1.5% in Chelyabinsk oblast. As in the east 5 ern regions of the country, the main reason for the republic there were 23% of Russians, as a result of decrease in the share of Ukrainians is their assimila mass proscription of the Russian population in the tion with Russians [5, 9]. early 1990s and following two armed conflicts, the share of Russians decreased to 2% in the Republic of According to the same scheme, processes of Chechnya and to less than 1% in the Ingush Republic. changes in the ethnic composition of the very west 5 In 1959 Russians made up 49% of the population of the former 4 Except for the and . Chechen–Ingush Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic.

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Table 1. Change in the share of the ethnic Russian in the population of federal subjects from 1959 to 2010 Change in the share of The share of the ethnic Russian ethnic Russians in the population of a region, % in the population Federal district Region (federal subject) of a region (1959 1959 2010 is equal to 100%) Increase in the share in the total population Perm krai 80.9 87.1 Volga Republic of Udmurtia 56.8 62.2 Orenburg oblast 70.9 75.9 Ural Chelyabinsk oblast 79.7 83.8 Tomsk oblast 86.2 92.1 By 5–10 % Kemerovo oblast 85.7 93.7 Siberian Altai krai 86.8 93.9 Republic of Khakassia 76.5 81.7 Irkutsk oblast 84.1 91.4 Amur oblast 87.8 94.3 Far Eastern Kamchatka krai 79.8 85.9 Northwestern 77.6 86.4 Volga Republic of Chuvashia 24.0 26.9 Siberian Omsk oblast 77.4 85.8 Khabarovsk krai 82.2 91.8 By 10 – 20% Jewish AO 78.2 92.7 Far Eastern 81.2 92.5 Sakhalin oblast 77.7 86.5 Magadan oblast 73.3 84.1 Republic of Karelia 63.4 82.2 Northwestern By more than 20% Republic of Komi 48.4 65.1 Ural Yamalo–Nenets AO 44.6 61.7 Decrease in the share in the total population Republic of Mordovia 59.0 53.4 Volga Republic of Tatarstan 43.9 39.7 By 5–10 % Ulyanovsk oblast 77.7 73.6 Southern Republic of Adygeya 70.4 63.6 Ural –Mansi AO 72.5 68.1 North Caucasus 91.3 81.0 Southern oblast 77.5 67.6 Volga Republic of Bashkortostan 42.4 36.1 By 10 – 20% Republic of Altai 69.8 56.6 Siberian Republic of Buryatia 74.6 66.1 Republic of Yakutia 44.2 37.8 Far Eastern Chukchi AO 60.7 52.5 Southern Republic of Kalmykia 55.9 30.2 Karachayevo–Circassian 51.0 31.7 Republic Kabardino–Balkarian Republic 38.7 22.5 By more than 20% North Caucasus Republic of North Ossetia 39.6 20.8 Republic of Ingushetia 0.8 49.0 Republic of Chechnya 1.9 Republic of Dagestan 20.1 3.6 Siberian Republic of Tyva 40.1 16.3

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Table 2. Changes in the share of major ethnic groups from 1959 to 2010 and their localization

The share Coefficient of localization of an ethnic group Growth in the share (share of the representatives in the population of an ethnic group of the ethnic group living Ethnos of Russia, % in the period in the historical territory), % from 1959 to 2010 1959 2010 1959 2010

123456 Russians 83.26 80.90 0.97 – – Ukrainians 2.85 1.40 0.49 – – Belarussians 0.72 0.38 0.53 – – Russian Germans 0.70 0.29 0.41 – – Jews 0.73 0.11 0.15 – – Ethnic groups of European Russia, including: Tatars 3.47 3.87 1.12 33.0 37.9 Baskkirs 0.81 1.15 1.42 77.3 74.0 Chuvashes 1.22 1.05 0.86 53.6 56.7 Mordvinians 1.03 0.54 0.52 29.6 44.8 Udmurtes 0.52 0.40 0.77 77.3 74.3 Maris 0.42 0.40 0.95 56.1 53.1 Komis 0.24 0.17 0.71 86.7 88.7 0.14 0.04 0.29 52.1 74.9 Ethnic groups of the Caucasus, including: 0.22 1.04 4.73 93.4 84.3 0.21 0.66 3.14 95.9 93.2 Darginians 0.13 0.43 3.31 97.1 83.2 0.11 0.37 3.36 90.9 85.8 Lezghians 0.10 0.35 3.50 95.1 81.3 Ingushes 0.05 0.32 6.40 86.5 86.7 0.21 0.39 1.86 86.9 87.0 Kabardinians 0.17 0.38 2.24 94.8 94.9 Karachais 0.06 0.16 2.67 96.2 89.0 * 0.22 0.86 3.91 58.7 46.8 ** 0.06 0.44 7.33 53.9 21.7 Ethnic groups of Siberia, including: 0.20 0.35 1.75 95.7 97.6 0.21 0.34 1.62 54.0 62.2 Tuvinians 0.085 0.19 2.24 98.1 94.5

* Three federal subjects are considered as the main territory of settlement of : and Krasnodar and Stavropol krais. ** The Republic of Dagestan is considered as the main territory of settlement of Azerbaijanis in Russia.

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In the same period of time, the share of major ethnoses the result of a natural decrease in the Russian popula in national republics increased significantly. Thus, tion in the 1990s. The circumstance that during the today Chechens make up more than 95% of Chech period from 1990 to 2010 the migration decrease in the nya’s population; Ingushes, more than 94% of the population of Kalmykia was 67000 people or more than population of the Ingush Republic. The share of Osse 20% of the total number confirms the predominantly tins in their national republic increased from 40 to migration character of the decrease in the population 65%; that of Kabardinians, from 45 to 57%; and that and the share of Russians in the republic [3]. of Karachais, from 24 to 41%. The processes of ethnic The share of Russians decreased (although not as consolidation touched even multinational Dagestan. significantly as in the North Caucasus) in some During the period from 1959 to 2010, the share of the regions of the Volga Federal District. The share of major ethnoses in this republic increased due to Russian Russians decreased from 77.7 to 73.6% in Ulyanovsk and European population, as well as not numerous oblast, from 43.9 to 39.7% in the Republic of Tatar Caucasian ethnic groups. During more than 50 years, stan, and from 42.4 to 36.1% in the Republic of Bash the share of Avars increased from 22.5 to 29.4%; that of kortostan (Table 1). In all these regions, the decrease Darginians, from 13.9 to 17.0%; of Kumyks, from in the number of Russians was followed by an increase 11.4 to 14.9%; and that of Lezghians, from 10.2 to in the share of Turkic ethnic groups of the Volga 13.3% [5, 9]. region: Tatars, Bashkirs, and Chuvashes. Thus, during The drop in the number and share of Russians in the period from 1959 to 2010, in Ulyanovsk oblast the the North Caucasus is affected by outflow from these share of Tatars increased from 8.7 to 12.2%; that of national republics in the last decade and the exist Chuvashes, from 5.3 to 7.7%. During this period, in ence of a significant difference in the nature of pro the Republic of Tatarstan, the share of the Tatar popu cesses of population reproduction between the Rus lation increased from 47.2 to 53.2%; in the Republic of sian and Caucasian ethnic groups. A high birth rate Bashkortostan, from 23.0 to 25.4%. In the Republic of and a low death rate, which are typical of all moun Bashkortostan, the share of the major ethnos taindwellers of the Northern Caucasus, offer a con increased from 22.1 to 29.5%. Admittedly, during the trast to the natural decrease in the Russian, Ukrai same period, in both republics, the share of Chuvashes nian, Belarussian, and other ethnos groups of the 6 Russian Federation which started in the 1990s and decreased from 38 to 18% . still continues today. The situation is different in the Republic of Mor The high natural increase in the population of most dovia. During the period from 1959 to 2010, the share Caucasian ethnic groups, combined with their migra of Russians in the republic decreased from 59.0 to tion to the adjacent regions of Southern Russia, 53.4% and the number of Mordvinians increased from caused a significant decrease in the share of Russians 35.8 to 40.0%. Also, the share of the Tatar population in regions where they have prevailed for centuries. increased from 3.9 to 5.2%. At the same time, during Thus, during 50 years, Stavropol krai and Astrakhan the last 50 years, the total number of the republic’s oblast, the share of Russians decreased from 91.3 to population decreased by 17% (from 1 mln to 835000). 81.0 and from 77.5 to 67.6%, respectively (Table 1). During this period, the absolute number of Russians in Concurrently, in Stavropol krai, the share of Arme Mordovia decreased by 25% and the number of Mordvin nians increased by a factor of 6.3 (from 1.5 to 5.9%); ians living predominantly in rural areas dropped by 7%. of Darginians, by a factor of 66; of Karachais, by a fac From 1959 to 2010, the number of Tatar population in tor of 11; and that of Azerbaijanis, by a factor of 14. the republic increased by 12% [5, 9]. During 50 years, in , the population If during the last 50 years in most regions and terri increased slightly due to an increase in the share of tories of Siberia and the Far East the share of Russians (from 9.8 to 16.3 %), nations of Dagestan increased mostly due to the assimilation of Ukrainians (from 0.03 to 2.1%), Azerbaijanis (from 0.05 to 0.9%), and Belarussians, in national regions of the Asian part and Chechens (from 0 to 0.8%) [5, 9]. of Russia, a significant decrease in the share of Rus The number of Russians in Kalmykia decreased by sians and a simultaneous increase in the shares of almost a factor of 2 or from 55.9 to 30.2%, and the major indigenous ethnoses were observed. During the share of the major ethnos increased from 35.1 to period from 1959 to 2010, in the republics of Altai, 57.4%. The main reason for this process was not only Buryatia, and Yakutia and Chukchi Autonomous the difference in the reproduction pattern of the Rus Okrug (AO), the share of Russians increased by more sian and Kalmyk population but also mass outflow of than 10% and in the Republic of Tyva it decreased by Russians in the 1990s. If in 1989 the number of Rus more than a factor of 2. Due to higher rates of natural sians in Kalmykia was 121500 people, it decreased by 20% to 98000 in 2003 [4]. The 2010 Population Cen 6 The ethic proximity of the Tatar and Bashkir ethnic groups in sus registered only 85700 Russians in the republic, and the case of a dominating role of the former complicates the identification of the Bashkir population within the territory of the absolute number of increased by 11% in the Republic of Bashkortostan and produces different results 1989–2010 [8]. Such a decrease in the Russian popu from census to census regarding the number of Bashkirs and lation in Kalmykia (by 29.5% over 20 years) cannot be Tatars in the Republic of Bashkortostan.

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160

140

120

100

% 80

60

40

20

0 1959 1970 1979 1989 2002 2010 Population of the Russians Ukrainians Russian Federation Belorussians Komis Karelians Komi–Permyaks

Fig. 4. Change in the population size of from 1959 to 2010 (1959 is 100%). increase in indigenous ethnic groups and mass 7 outflow of Russians from these regions since the talk about fast assimilation with the Russian ethnos 1980s, the share of Altaians, Tuvinians, Buryats, (Figs. 4–7) [3–7, 9]. Concurrently, during the same period, the share of Caucasian ethnic groups increased Yakuts, and Chukchis increased significantly. The significantly and not only in the Northern Caucasus process of replacement of Russians with the major region but in the territory of the Russian Federation as ethnos group was happening particularly rapidly in a whole. Particular attention is drawn towards the Tyva. During the period from 1989 to 2002, after the Turkic ethnoses of the Volga region (the Bashkirs, mass outflow of Russians from the republic because Tatars, and Chuvashes), whose number changed insig of the intensification of international relations, the 8 share of Tuvinians increased from 64 to 77% and that nificantly during this half of the century Also, during of Russians decreased from 32 to 20% [5, 4]. By the the period from 1959 to 2010, the number of Siberian end of 2010, the share of Russians in the republic ethnic groups, such as the Yakuts, Buryats, and Tuvin decreased to 16.3% and the number of Tuvinians ians, who are among the most numerous ethnoses of increased to 82% [9]. the country but have the highest ethnic localization among the nations of the Russian Federation, Analyzing the territorial aspects of the changes in increased significantly (Table 2). the settlement of Russians within the Russian Federa tion in the period from the second half of the 20th cen At the same time the ethnoses whose number sig tury to the early 21st century, it is necessary to admit nificantly increased during the last 50 years, localiza that these changes mostly touched upon territories tion within the territory of main diffusion (national where by the end of the 1950s simultaneously with republic) principally decreased. It concerned not only Russians a significant share of the population was the Chechens whose diffusion was affected with forced made up of other ethnic groups. At the same time the migration as the result of armed conflicts in the 1990s, nature of the interaction between Russians and other but also the decrease of the part of ethnos living on numerous ethnic groups of Russia living together in their historical homeland was typical for other nations some regions were different. Thus, during the last of Caucasia (including the Armenians and Azerbaija 50 years, practically in all regions where the share of nians compactly living in the South of Russia). Russians increased, a decrease in the absolute and rel 7 Mass emigration as the reason of the decrease in representatives ative indices of the share of the Ukrainian, Belarus of these ethnic groups during the studied period was typical sian, Russian German, Jewish, and most Finno– only of the Jews; as for the Russian Germans and Ukrainians, Ugric ethnic groups of Russia (the Karelians, Komi, after 1991, it had a compensatory character due to the arrival of KomiPermiaks, Veps, Udmurts, and Mordvinians) immigrants belonging to this nationality from Central Asia and Kazakhstan to Russia. occurred. In 1959–2010, a decrease in the number 8 With the exception of the Bashkirs, whose number increased by and share of these ethnic groups happened across the more than 50 % due to a change in their ethnic selfidentifica entire territory of the Russian Federation, and we may tion from Tatar into Bashkir in the postSoviet period.

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200 180 160 140 120 % 100 80 60 40 20 0 1959 1970 1979 1989 2002 2010

Population of the Russians Tatars Bashkirs Russian Federation Chuvashes Udmurtes Maris Mordvinians

Fig. 5. Change in the number of ethnic groups in the Volga region from 1959 to 2010 (1959 is 100%).

1000 900 800 700 600

% 500 400 300 200 100 0 1959 1970 1979 1989 2002 2010 Population of the Chechens Avars Darginians Russian Federation Ossetians Kabardinians Ingushes Karachais

Armenians Azerbaijanis

Fig. 6. Change in the number of ethnic groups in the Caucasus from 1959 to 2010 (1959 is 100%).

Contrary to this, most ethnic groups, whose share share of Komis, from 86 to 89%; and that of Chu in the population of the Russian Federation has vashes, from 54 to 57% (Table 2). decreased during the last 50 years, increased localiza An exception in this tendency were Siberian eth tion within their national republic. Thus, the share of noses, such as the Yakuts and Buryats, at a significant increase in their absolute number and share in the Mordvinians living in the territory of the Republic of population of Russia: territorial expansion is not typi Mordovia during the period from 1959 to 2010 cal of them, and the localization of these ethnic groups increased from 30 to 45%. The share of Karelians in the territory of Russia increased from 52 to 75%; the

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300

250

200

% 150

100

50

0 1959 1970 1979 1989 2002 2010 Population of the Russians Yakuts Kalmykians Russian Federation Buryats Tuvinians Kazakhs

Fig. 7. Change in the number of steppe ethnoses in the period from 1959 to 2010 (1959 is 100%). within the boundaries of their traditional territory has region (Astrakhan oblast and the Republic of 9 Kalmykia), and in other regions of Siberia and the Far increased over the last 50 years . East (the republics of Tyva, Altai, Buryatia, and Yaku An analysis of the quantity parameters characteriz tia and Chukotka AO). Similar ethnic dynamics is ing the settlement of Russians within the territory of observed in some regions of the Volga Federal District, the Russian Federation enables to draw some general and it is typical of ethnic groups, such as the Tatars and izations. Bashkirs. (1) In more than half of the federal subjects, during (4) It is typical of most Russian ethnoses, subjected the period from 1959 to 2010, the share of Russians in to assimilation by Russians, to increase the level of the total number of population changed by more localization within their national republics. Beyond than 5%; in 26 of them, by more than 10%; this indi the boundaries of the main settlement territory, the cates the dynamic character of the existence of an areal assimilation of representatives of these ethnoses hap of settlement pattern of the Russian ethnos. pens more rapidly particularly in urban areas. The (2) An increase in the share of Russians occurred in Ukrainians, Belarussians, Russian Germans, Kareli regions with a large part of the population ethnically ans, Komis, Mordvinians, and other nations of the approaching these ethnic groups. An increase in the Russian superethnos, who are settled in an expatriate share of Russians occurred due to the assimilation of manner among the Russian population, have the Ukrainian, Belarussian, Mordvinian, and other decreased their number twice or even more during the populations. This concerned the territory of Siberia, last 50 years. the Far East, European Center, and some areas of the (5) Efferent migration processes are typical of Volga region. dynamically increasing passionarity ethnoses of the (3) A decrease in the share of Russians in the total Northern Caucasus and some ethnic groups of the number of population is first of all typical of national Transcaucasia (the Armenians and Azerbaijanis), regions with rapidly growing populations related to leading to the rapid expansion of the area of settlement other superethnic communities. Neither assimilation and, consequently, to a decrease in the level of local with Russians nor assimilation of Russians occurs, as ization within the territory where they had lived until we may observe the exclusion of the Russian ethnos the second half of the 20th century. and its displacement with representatives of native Analyzing the changes in the settlement pattern of ethnic groups. During the last decade, this process is the Russian ethnos within the Russian Federation in most rapidly going on on the territory of the North the period from the second half of the 20th century to Caucasus (including Stavropol krai), Lower Volga the early 21st century and based on Gumilev’s theory 9 For the Buryats, except for the Republic of Buryatia, tradi of ethnogenesis, we observe the confirmation of state tional territories of settlement are considered territories of ments on the nature and territorial dependence of pro former Ust–Ordynskiy and Aginskiy AOs. cesses within the ethnic system during its transition

REGIONAL RESEARCH OF RUSSIA Vol. 3 No. 4 2013 CHANGES IN THE SETTLEMENT PATTERN OF THE RUSSIAN ETHNOS 375 from the phase of collapse to the inertial period of 2. Zhitin, D.V., Etnologicheskii podkhod k sovremennym development. The transition of the Russian ethnos to geopoliticheskim problemam Rossii (Ethnic Approach to the inertial phase of ethnogenesis occurs during the the Modern Geopolitical Problems of Russia), period from the second half of the 20th century to the St. Petersburg: Ross. Geogr. Ovo, 1997. early 21st century, as Gumilev stated in [1, p. 291]. 3. Zhitin, D.V., Territorial peculiarities of localization of From a demographic perspective, a decrease in pas migration flows in Russian Federation, Izv. Ross. Geogr. sionarity within the ethnic system to a level where Ova, 2011, vol. 143, no. 3, pp. 16–31. there is not enough potential to cause damage to 4. Demoscope Weekly, Institute of Demography, Highest themselves and other nations, results in a transition to School of Economics. http://demoscope.ru/weekly 10 /ssp/rus_nac_02.php simple reproduction of the population . The assimi lation of members of national minorities takes place 5. Demoscope Weekly, Institute of Demography, Highest School of Economics. http://demoscope.ru/weekly/ exceptionally in a natural way due to the accumulated ssp/rus_nac_59.php demographic and cultural mass, and this assimilation is possible only regarding complementary ethnic 6. Demoscope Weekly, Institute of Demography, Highest groups with the same or a lower level of passionarity. School of Economics. http://demoscope.ru/weekly/ ssp/rus_nac_70.php On the contrary, more passionarity ethnoses belonging to other superethnic communities do not assimilate 7. Demoscope Weekly, Institute of Demography, Highest and oust Russians from their own territory and from School of Economics. http://demoscope.ru/weekly/ beyond its boundaries as well. ssp/rus_nac_79.php 8. Demoscope Weekly, Institute of Demography, Highest School of Economics. http://demoscope.ru/weekly/ REFERENCES ssp/rus_nac_89.php 1. Gumilev, L.N., Ot Rusi k Rossii (From ancient Rus to 9. Official Website of Russian Federal Statistical Service, Russia), Moscow: Ekopros, 1994. the Results of of 2010. http://perepis 2010.ru/results_of_the_census/tab7.xls 10 In the period from 1992 to 2011, during the exit from the phase of collapse, a negative natural increase was observed that has decreased by 1 ppm by now. Translated by N. Berestetska

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