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Professor Shibli Rubayat-Ul-Islam Chairman Bangladesh Securities

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Professor Shibli Rubayat-Ul-Islam Chairman Bangladesh Securities Professor Shibli Rubayat-Ul-Islam Chairman Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission In the past 50 Years, Bangladesh’s dependency on Foreign Aid has reduced from 98% (1971) to (2021) Lets see some numbers 3 The Rise of Bengal Tiger Poverty rate (%) Life expectancy (years) 72.4 71.3% 65.4 48.9% 46.8 20.5% 1973 2000 2019 1973 2000 2019 Millions lifted out of poverty at unprecedented speed Life Expectancy increased with affordable healthcare Female Labor Force Participation (%) Literacy rate (%) 30.6% 75% 23.6% 20.5% 47% 29% 1990 2000 2019 1980 2001 2019 Women empower the nation – leading the RMG industry Illiteracy plagued the nation in recent past, hardly an issue now Source : World Bank, Ministry of Finance 4 The Rise of Bengal Tiger 43 GDP ($bn) 330 Forex Reserve ($bn) 115 11 53 32 9 18 2 1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012 2020 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 World’s 41st largest economy; Doubled in last 6 years RMG export Powerhouse; Rising Consumption and Capital Investment 55 Remittance ($bn) 18 Export vs Import ($bn) 39 11 Export ($bn) Import ($bn) 28 18 9 2 3 1 4 2 1 7 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Forex Reserve record high; currency stability Robust remittance marching ahead even in times of Source : World Bank GFC and Covid-19 5 We have walked through many obstacles in last 50 years 6 Our Footprint in Global Economy • Production of Hilsha • Production of Jute • Export of Jute • Export of RMG • Developing of species of crops • Production of Jackfruit • Production of Fish • Production of Paddy • Production of Rice • Production of Vegetables • Production of Goat • Production of Potato • Earning Remittance • Production of Mango • Outsourcing • Export of Bicycle • Production of Guava 7 Bangladesh Sovereign Credit Rating BB- Ba3 8 Strategic Burgeoning Geographic Location GDP/Square Kilometer (Current $mn) 1.9 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.8 VN IN SL CH BD Located on Bay of Bengal, at the doorstep Source : World Bank of the world’s two largest consumer BD= Bangladesh, IN = India, VN = Viet Nam, SL= Sri Lanka, markets, China and India CH = China The land is teeming with economic activities The most densely populated among the thanks to density and hard work world’s large nations 10 Demographic Dividend for Decades to Come Median Age of the Population in 2020 Old Age Dependency Ratio CH, 37% 38.4 SL, 32% VN, 30% 32.5 34.0 27.6 28.4 17% BD, 20% IN, 18% 11% 10% 8% BD IN VN SL CH 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source : United Nations Old Age Dependency Ratio: Population over 65 years of age as a BD= Bangladesh, IN = India, VN = Viet Nam, SL= Sri Lanka, CH = China percentage of total Contrary to the trend of ageing A young population ready to climb population in peer countries, 80% of the economic ladder Bangladeshi will still work or be getting ready to join the work force 11 Political Stability Leading to Policy Stability ADP Allocation in Budget 2019-2020 ($bn) 6.9 6.1 5.3 3.1 2.7 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.3 Health and Education Communication Agriculture and Rural Energy Infrastructure Others Infrastructure Development Budget 2019-2020 Budget 2008-2009 Source : Ministry of Finance The ruling government has been in power for last 12 years which ensured policy continuity in different areas like poverty alleviation, education, healthcare, power generation, infrastructure development etc. The country reached the lower middle-income country status in 2015. Bangladesh is now on track for graduation from UN’s Least Developed Countries (LDC) list in 2024. 12 Energy Solution For Future Infrastructure Projects in Pipeline (USD Bn) Over the next 5 years, 12.7 $41 bn worth of infrastructure is coming in to operation 5.0 4.4 4.6 3.7 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.1795 Rooppur Nuclear Rampal Coal Power Matarbari Power Plant Padma Rail Link Padma Multipurpose Dhaka Metro Rail Karnaphuli Chattogram-Cox’s Dhaka Elevated Moheshkhali LNG Power Plant Project Bridge Underwater Tunnel Bazar Railway Link Expressway Terminal Source : Government of Bangladesh • Power generation capacity increased to • 93 Exclusive Economic Zones under 24,000 MW in 2020 from 4,942 in 2009 development • Target to generate 60,000 MW by 2041 • Investment proposals received worth of USD 20.25 bn 13 What about Digitization 14 Digitization to Grass Roots Industrial Development Digital Ecosystem Target to set up 28 Hi-Tech Park Average daily transaction 12 High-Tech park under development through MFS USD 214.6 mn E-commerce market size of Technology availability USD 2.0 bn Launched 3G in 2013 and 4G in 2018 5G to be launched by 2021 Source : World Bank, Ministry of Finance, Bangladesh Bank, BSCCL 15 Internet Affordability 98% decline in bandwidth No. of internet user increased price since 2008 by 18 times since 2006 We have two submarine We have exported a 10 gbps cables and a third is currently bandwidth to Tripura of India awaiting operational for four years. commencement. 16 Source : World Bank, Ministry of Finance, Bangladesh Bank, BSCCL Set on Path to be a Trillion Dollar Economy Ease of Doing Bangladesh GDP (USD bn) Projection by PWC 2019 2020 Change in Ranking Business Ranking th 25 Bangladesh 176 168 8 2,263 China 46 31 15 29th India 77 63 14 41st 668 227 Vietnam 69 70 1 Sri Lanka 100 99 1 2016 2030 2050 Source : World Bank Source : PwC Reduction in different fees related to setting According to PWC, Bangladesh is expected to be up a business, lower security deposit for the 25th largest economy by 2050, surpassing electricity connection and easier access to Poland, Argentina, Malaysia, Thailand, South credit etc. helped Bangladesh to climb 8 Africa, Colombia and Netherlands notches on the Ease of Doing Business Ranking by WB 17 Awaiting Financialization Boom Credit to private sector (% of GDP) Broad Money (% of GDP) 165% 195% 138% 158% 74% 61% 64% 45% 50% 50% SL BD IN VN CH BD SL IN VN CH Mcap/GDP ratio 2019 76.0% 59.4% 57.2% Financialization of the economy is a natural next step Access to credit for private sector 18.7% 11.1% has much scope to grow Capital market set to take a bigger IN CH VN SL BD role in the economy Source : World Bank, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Dhaka Stock Exchange 18 Here comes Corona Virus 19 Extraordinary resilience in face of COVID-19 Est. GDP Growth Rate in 2022 7.6% 5.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.7% BD IN CH VN SL UN Projects Bangladesh to be one of the fastest growing countries in the world, defying challenges posed by Covid-19 The optimism is supported by the fact that energy demand surpassed pre-lockdown level in October, 2020 Tax collection already posted YoY growth during Jul-Dec 2020 period Source : The Business Standard Consumer discretionary spending posted sharp growth in the latest 20 quarter Combating against COVID-19 Pandemic As on February 02, 2021 4500 4000 Total Affected 536,107 3500 Total Death 8,149 3000 Mortality Rate 1.52% 2500 Highest Affected in a day 4,019 (July 02, 2020) 2000 Highest Death in a day 64 1500 (June 30, 2020) 1000 Source: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/bangladesh 500 0 3/18/2020 4/18/2020 5/18/2020 6/18/2020 7/18/2020 8/18/2020 9/18/2020 10/18/2020 11/18/2020 12/18/2020 1/18/2021 New Cases New Deaths The downtrend in the number of daily cases and deaths are proof of adequate strategies and action programs in combating against COVID-19 21 V-Shaped Recovery Higher Export ($bn) Than Pre-pandemic Level Higher Remittance ($bn) Than Pre-pandemic Level 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020 2019 2020 Source : Bangladesh Bank Export picked up and shrugged off Covid-19 effect Remittance increased sharply in pandemic time 22 Comfortable Debt/GDP Bangladesh Debt/GDP lowest among Peers 98% 89% 81% 79% 79% 72% 66% 69% 62% 46% 47% 42% 40% 42% 36% 34% 37% 34% 29% 26% BD VN CH IN SL 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source : IMF Bangladesh Debt/GDP is declining reflecting prudent fiscal management Stimulus to fight Covid-19 increased Debt/GDP, but still lower than 2005 level 23 Treasury Securities – Attractive Yields; Rising Liquidity 2Y and 10Y T-Bonds Rates 5.9% $26 bn $13 bn 3.1% Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 2Y Bond 10Y Bond Source : Bangladesh Bank Risk Free Rate came down sharply in Primary market Secondary market response to monetary stimulus to fight issuance in last 12 activities in last 12 Covid-19 months months Historically, Bangladesh Treasury Bond yields higher than peers with same credit ratings, due to lack of foreign capital flow to the market. The structural issues are to be resolved soon with streamlining regulations and listing of the bonds with exchange 25 Dhaka Stock Exchange – The Long View DSE - The Long View Equity Market Performance in 2020 5,000 4,482 50% 4,500 45% 21.3% 40% 4,000 16.7% 3,500 35% 30% 14.9% 3,000 13.9% 25% 2,500 20% 10.5% 2,000 15% 1,500 10% 1,000 67 5% 500 6 0% - -5% 1986 1991 2001 2010 2020 Bangladesh India Vietnam China Sri Lanka Mcap (Equity + Debt) (BDT bn) Mcap/GDP Source : Dhaka Stock Exchange Source : World Federation of Exchanges Total Market Capitalization was only BDT 6bn in Bangladesh market was one of the best 1986 performing in 2020, reflecting bold and effective BDT 61bn of Mcap was added in the next 15 years Covid response.
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