Covid-19: WCBC Weekly Briefing Note, 12th February 2021

COMMUNICATIONS Please share this document and the attached bilingual GIFs on social media and in your communities.

The key messages today are:  If you’re aged 70 or over and have not yet had your jab, call 03000 840004, now.  If you’re under 70 and have had a letter from Welsh Government advising you to shield, call this number now, too.  If you’re aged 65 to 69, your jab is coming soon, but wait to be called.  Beware of bogus calls - do not pay any money or give out your bank details.

A link to today’s Council public briefing note, which you may also share on social media, is provided here: https://news.wrexham.gov.uk/covid-19-briefing-note-cases-still-high-in-/

DATA ON THE VIRUS

TABLE 1: Covid-19 in the County Borough as a whole compared to other Councils in North TESTS Lowest Scores Worst Scores Last 4 Weeks' Scores 1st Wave 2nd Wave 1st Wave 2nd Wave 11/01 - 18/01 - 25/01 - 01/02 - Spring/Summer Autumn/Winter Spring/Summer Autumn/Winter 17/01 24/01 31/01 07/02 Anglesey 1 (08 March) 360 (16 Aug) 805 (21 June 20) 1162 (10 Jan 21) 1008 893 740 1082 Conwy 4 (08 March) 588 (21 June) 1519 (7 June 20) 2269 (10 Jan 21) 1885 1662 1535 1722 2 (08 March) 423 (28 June) 1188 (7 Junen 20) 2292 (10 Jan 21) 2070 1692 1504 1361 4 (08 March) 651 (21 June) 1332 (7 June 20) 4148 (10 Jan 21) 3438 2727 2262 2101 Gwynedd 5 (08 March) 626 (28 June) 1101 (7 June 20) 1994 (17 Jan 21) 1994 1549 1378 1445 Wrexham 4 (08 March) 1087 (16 Aug) 2069 (2 Aug 20) 4006 (10 Jan 21) 3342 2724 2062 2040

TESTS: POSITIVITY RATE All are above the 5% WG trigger point Lowest Scores Worst Scores Last 4 Weeks' Scores 1st Wave 2nd Wave 1st Wave 2nd Wave 11/01 - 18/01 - 25/01 - 01/02 - Spring/Summer Autumn/Winter Spring/Summer Autumn/Winter 17/01 24/01 31/01 07/02 Anglesey 0 (29 March) 0.2 (30 Aug) 34.8 (19 Apr 20) 14.7 (03 Jan 21) 9.2 11.5 13.1 10.6 Conwy 0 (22 March) 0.2 (23 Aug) 38.8 (19 Apr 20) 11.2 (10 Jan 21) 10.6 8.1 7.9 9.4 Denbighshire 0 (15 March) 0.4 (30 Aug) 53.1 (12 Apr 20) 18.6 (03 Jan 21) 15.4 12.5 6.3 6 Flintshire 0 (08 March) 0.4 (09 Aug) 49.6 (12 Apr 20) 28.5 (03 Jan 21) 21.1 19.2 17.2 12.8 Gwynedd 0 (15 March) 0.3 (02 Aug) 50.9 (19 Apr 20) 12.7 (17 Jan 21) 12.7 10.4 6.9 7.5 Wrexham 0 (08 March) 0.7 (30 Aug) 39.8 (19 Apr 20) 32.5 (03 Jan 21) 26.9 21.9 20.4 13.3

NEW CASES Lowest Scores Worst Scores Last 4 Weeks' Scores 1st Wave 2nd Wave 1st Wave 2nd Wave 11/01 - 18/01 - 25/01 - 01/02 - Spring/Summer Autumn/Winter Spring/Summer Autumn/Winter 17/01 24/01 31/01 07/02 Anglesey 0 (29 March) 1 (30 Aug) 106 (21 June 20) 130 (03 Jan 21) 93 103 97 115 Conwy 0 (22 March) 3 (23 Aug) 116 (17 May 20) 254 (10 Jan 21) 199 135 122 162 Denbighshire 0 (15 March) 4 (30 Aug) 108 (24 May 20) 411 (10 Jan 21) 318 212 95 81 Flintshire 0 (08 March) 5 (09 Aug) 88 (10 May 20) 1059 (03 Jan 21) 725 523 389 269 Gwynedd 0 (15 March) 2 (02 Aug) 87 (19 April 20) 253 (17 Jan 21) 253 161 95 108 Wrexham 0 (08 March) 10 (30 Aug) 159 (28 June 20) 1236 (03 Jan 21) 899 597 421 271

CASES PER 100,000 POPULATION All are above the 70+ WG trigger point Lowest Scores Worst Scores Last 4 Weeks' Scores 1st Wave 2nd Wave 1st Wave 2nd Wave 11/01 - 18/01 - 25/01 - 01/02 - Spring/Summer Autumn/Winter Spring/Summer Autumn/Winter 17/01 24/01 31/01 07/02 Anglesey 0 (29 March) 1 (30 Aug) 151 (21 June 20) 186 (03 Jan 21) 133 147 139 164 Conwy 0 (22 March) 3 (23 Aug) 99 (17 May 20) 217 (10 Jan 21) 170 115 104 138 Denbighshire 0 (15 March) 4 (30 Aug) 113 (24 May 20) 430 (10 Jan 21) 332 222 99 85 Flintshire 0 (08 March) 3 (09 Aug) 56 (10 May 20) 678 (03 Jan 21) 464 335 249 172 Gwynedd 0 (15 March) 2 (02 Aug) 50 (10 May 20) 203 (17 Jan 21) 203 129 76 87 Wrexham 0 (08 March) 7 (30 Aug) 117 (28 June 20) 909 (03 Jan 21) 661 439 310 199

HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS Lowest Scores Worst Scores Last 4 Weeks' Scores 1st Wave 2nd Wave 1st Wave 2nd Wave 11/01 - 18/01 - 25/01 - 01/02 - Spring/Summer Autumn/Winter Spring/Summer Autumn/Winter 17/01 24/01 31/01 07/02 BCUHB 0 (08 March) 5 (06 Sep) 91 (17 May 20) 180 (24 Jan 21) 167 180 148 75

DEATHS Lowest Scores Worst Scores Last 4 Weeks' Scores 1st Wave 2nd Wave 1st Wave 2nd Wave 11/01 - 18/01 - 25/01 - 01/02 - Spring/Summer Autumn/Winter Spring/Summer Autumn/Winter 17/01 24/01 31/01 07/02 BCUHB 0 (15 March) 1 (13 Sep) 56 (19 Apr 20) 102 (24 Jan 21) 75 102 71 0 Source: PHW Tableau Key: Worst score since the pandemic began in BOLD (where it has been recorded in the last 4 weeks) Comment

 The virus peaked in the first week of January and since then has reduced quickly and significantly. The rate per 100,000 population today (199) has halved from two weeks ago (439), but the positivity rate (13.3%) is falling more slowly (20.4% last Friday and 21.9 two weeks ago). The virus is halving every 12 to 14 days and the R-value is below 1, but Wrexham is still worst in Wales.

 The ‘UK’/‘Kent’ variant accounted for the winter peak (the ‘old’ variant having been in decline before Christmas) and now accounts for all new cases, compared to 90% last week.

 The small number of ‘South Africa’ variant cases (3) have not increased and, as yet, there are no cases of the much more worrying ‘Brazil’/‘Japan’/’E484K’ variants. However, new variants are expected to emerge until transmission is suppressed – requiring our continued vigilance.

 Local household transmission of the UK/Kent variant remains the key driver of the disease, rather than the spread of new variants by visitors.

 Hospital admissions and deaths due to Covid-19 have, thankfully, plateaued, but hospitals are still under strain, including the , which is still dealing with an outbreak.

TABLE 2: Covid-19 in the Sub-Areas of Wrexham (as used by PHW in their Tableau) TABLE 2 - COVID-19: WREXHAM SUB-AREA DATA FROM 20/10/20 Key: > 300/100,000 population SUB AREA CASES PER 100,000 POPULATION No. OF CASES Best Worst Reported in the last 7 days % Decile in Cases: Cases: since 20/10/20 since 20/10/20 change: Wales: 06/02/21 07/02/21 08/02/21 09/02/21 10/02/21 11/02/21 12/02/21 21 days 7 days 26/01 to 27/01 to 28/01 to 29/01 to 30/01 to 31/01 to 01/02 to 20/10 to 7 days Score 7 days to Score 7 days to to 07/02 to 07/02 01/02 02/02 03/02 04/02 05/02 06/02 07/02 08/02 to 07/02 Acton & Maes-y-dre 79 07/02/2021 910 04/01/2021 356 198 138 138 99 99 79 -73 6 54 4 Bangor-on-Dee, Overton & 31 01/12/2020 542 08/01/2021 135 150 150 135 150 90 90 -33 5 21 6 & 42 22/10/2020 909 04/01/2021 248 207 145 145 103 165 144 -50 3 36 7 84 26/11/2020 1120 09/01/2021 364 266 238 224 140 154 140 -29 3 93 10 Mawr 109 17/10/2020 665 04/11/2020 218 283 240 218 218 251 240 120 1 85 22 & Ceiriog Valley 93 23/11/2020 972 17/01/2021 401 417 417 432 386 216 185 0 2 82 12 & 77 15/12/2020 1184 04/01/2021 252 274 252 296 296 241 219 81 1 83 20 , & 56 02/12/2020 840 08/01/2021 182 140 105 112 105 133 154 0 2 109 22 West & Summerhill 51 17/11/2020 1924 06/01/2021 405 388 388 456 388 354 354 50 1 74 21 Hermitage & Whitegate 57 19/11/2020 1622 04/01/2021 331 297 240 229 206 194 183 34 2 126 16 Johnstown North & 82 02/12/2020 1288 01/01/2021 391 326 199 342 359 326 294 0 1 70 18 South & Gwersyllt East 75 19/11/2020 1134 08/01/2021 212 199 162 137 100 112 150 -7 2 64 12 New Broughton & Bryn Cefn 103 08/11/2020 1147 04/01/2021 245 193 180 168 180 193 206 7 1 67 16 Pen-y-cae & 35 01/12/2020 891 09/01/2021 140 210 279 279 314 349 349 0 1 54 20 Rhos & Johnstown South 142 08/11/2020 1167 11/01/2021 142 142 199 199 242 242 256 -36 1 47 18 & 75 20/11/2020 936 03/01/2021 136 121 136 136 136 121 106 -72 4 32 7 Town North, University & Rhos-ddu 56 15/11/2020 1227 08/01/2021 372 259 191 203 169 135 101 -25 5 90 9 Wrexham West 60 16/11/2020 1092 12/01/2021 444 444 444 504 432 420 384 256 1 103 32 129 18/11/2020 971 08/01/2021 272 248 230 235 218 207 199 -1 n/a 1290 272 Source: PHW Tableau

Comment

 15 of the 18 sub-areas of Wrexham have improved over the last week (compared to 15 on last Friday), but 3 have got worse (compared to 3 last Friday): o Gwersyllt West & Summerhill - 354/100k, compared to 321 on the 5th o Pen-y-cae & Minera - 349, a significant rise from 157 on the 5th o Rhos & Johnstown South - 256, compared to 199 on the 5th

 No sub-area has more than 400 cases per 100,000 population – a marked improvement on only a few weeks ago.

 3 sub-areas have more than 300: o Wrexham West - 384/100k, but down from 408 on the 5th o Gwersyllt West & Summerhill - as mentioned above o Pen-y-cae & Minera - as mentioned above

 15 have less than 300/100k, compared to 9 on the 5th

 8 are in the worst decile (10%) in Wales, compared to 15 on the 5th, but this is entirely due to the threshold for this decile being much lower (192/100k) than on the 5th (229), reflecting the fact that cases continue to fall much more quickly elsewhere.

 10 have less than 200/100k, compared to 4 on the 5th and one, Acton & Maes-y-dre, has seen its lowest rate since 20th October 2020 (when PHW started publishing these data).

Settings As household transmission is the principal driver of the disease, peoples’ home remain the main setting, followed, some way below, by care homes, which are improving, the Maelor Hospital and the prison, which have outbreaks. There are also several work-place clusters.

MANAGING THE VIRUS

 Overall - The Level-4 Alert lockdown has significantly reduced the rate of infection. It will be reviewed next Friday.

 Schools - In view of the still high levels of infection in parts of Wrexham, the Council and head teachers are taking a cautious approach to opening primary schools for foundation years children. If rates remain high and it is felt that it’s not yet safe, pupils won’t return to school on February 26, but we’ll continue to monitor the local situation. A link to the Council’s statement on this can be found here: https://news.wrexham.gov.uk/planning-underway-for-cautious-return-of-foundation- phase-pupils-in-wrexham/

 Other Council Services - the Council is continuing to provide critical services as publicised on our website and many other services too, with colleagues working from home.

The Vaccination Programme

TABLE 3: Summary of data on the Rollout of the Vaccine in Wales, North Wales and Wrexham Cumulative last 4 Weeks Total as of Today 11/01 - 18/01 - 25/01 - 01/02 - First Second 17/01 24/01 31/01 07/02 Vaccination Vaccination WALES TOTAL 152552 273652 421355 603351 715944 4010 BCUHB TOTAL 30808 60096 94055 140504 167581 BCUHB %* 20.2 22.0 22.3 23.3 NORTH Anglesey 18117 WALES Conwy 33568 COUNCILS Denbighshire 25937 ** Flintshire 31135 Gwynedd 27559 Wrexham 26611 Other 4664 WREXHAM Care home Residents - % 80% Priorities Care home Staff - % 82% 1 - 4 Aged 80+ - % 95% (in order)** Health care Staff - No. 4000 Social Care Staff -No. 1000 Ages 75-79 - % 85% Aged 70-74 - % 62% Aged 16-69 clinically vulnerable - % 58% Source: PHW Tableau & BCUHB Dashboard

Key: * The BCUHB area (i.e. North Wales) has 22% of the population of Wales ** There are some teething problems with BCUHB's Dashboard data which don’t add up

Comment

 New Data - Last week, BCUHB began publishing data on vaccinations at a council level and the keys ones are included in Table 3. However, there are some anomalies in these data and between them and those published by PHW. The data source can be found at Vaccinations statistics - Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board (nhs.wales)

 Overall - The good news is that Wales’ performance on vaccination is 4th in the world and 1st in Europe. In North Wales, more than 167,000 vaccines have been administered (up from 120,000 last week) with 6000 having been given yesterday, alone. This represents 23.5% of the population. The regional vaccination programme is on track to meet the 15th February target of vaccinating all of the Priority 1-4 most vulnerable groups.

 70 year olds - The vast majority of people aged 70 and older have been vaccinated, and those who have not are advised urgently to call 03000 840004 to ensure that they are.  Mass, Local and Health Vaccination Centres will be focussing on providing 2nd doses of the vaccine for the next few weeks.

 General Practitioners will now progress the 65 to 69 year olds and support 2nd vaccinations in care homes. The Ruabon GP surgery is being supported with a specific session in the Catrin Finch Centre on Monday, which will assist rapid catch up for patients of this practice.

 The level of waste of vaccines in North Wales is 0.3%, which is below the national level of 0.4%

More information on vaccinations can be found via the following links:  Wales - https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/covid-19-vaccination- information/about-the-vaccine  North Wales: https://bcuhb.nhs.wales/covid-19/covid-19-vaccination-information/