4.1 the Digital Revolution of Storm Spotting Modernizations of Training
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NEWSLETTER National Weather Association No
NEWSLETTER National Weather Association No. 10 – 12 December 2010 Tracking the Storms the PLOWS Way Adverse road conditions as- sociated with winter storms are re- sponsible for a large portion of the nearly 7000 deaths, 600,000 inju- Inside This Edition ries and 1 4. million accidents that occur in the United States each Internet Based GIS year . Improving cool season quan- Remote Sensing and Storm titative precipitation forecasting Chasing . .2 depends largely on developing a greater understanding of the me- President’s Message . .3 soscale structure and dynamics of cyclonic weather systems . The Pro- This C-130 Hercules Aircraft flies PLOWS missions. New Learning Opportunities filing of Winter Storms (PLOWS) project is aimed at doing just that. During the 2008- from the EJOM . 4. 2009 and 2009-2010 winter seasons, the University of Illinois (UI), the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and the University of Missouri (UM) placed teams of Scholarship Fundraising . 4. researchers in the field to study winter cyclones across the Midwestern United States NWA on Twitter and Facebook . .5 as part of the PLOWS project . PLOWS was designed to be a comprehensive field campaign, with complementary National Academy of Sciences to numerical modeling studies, that will address outstanding scientific questions targeted Study NWS . .7 at improving our understanding of precipitation substructures in the northwest and warm frontal quadrants of continental extratropical cyclones. The field strategy Professional Development was designed to answer questions about the mesoscale structure of winter storms Opportunities . .7 including: • What are the predominant spatial patterns of organized precipitation NWA Mission and Vision substructures, such as bands and generating cells, in these quadrants and how Statements . -
Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Tornadogenesis Failure in Supercell Thunderstorms
atmosphere Article Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Tornadogenesis Failure in Supercell Thunderstorms Matthew Van Den Broeke Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68588, USA; [email protected] Abstract: Many nontornadic supercell storms have times when they appear to be moving toward tornadogenesis, including the development of a strong low-level vortex, but never end up producing a tornado. These tornadogenesis failure (TGF) episodes can be a substantial challenge to operational meteorologists. In this study, a sample of 32 pre-tornadic and 36 pre-TGF supercells is examined in the 30 min pre-tornadogenesis or pre-TGF period to explore the feasibility of using polarimetric radar metrics to highlight storms with larger tornadogenesis potential in the near-term. Overall the results indicate few strong distinguishers of pre-tornadic storms. Differential reflectivity (ZDR) arc size and intensity were the most promising metrics examined, with ZDR arc size potentially exhibiting large enough differences between the two storm subsets to be operationally useful. Change in the radar metrics leading up to tornadogenesis or TGF did not exhibit large differences, though most findings were consistent with hypotheses based on prior findings in the literature. Keywords: supercell; nowcasting; tornadogenesis failure; polarimetric radar Citation: Van Den Broeke, M. 1. Introduction Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Supercell thunderstorms produce most strong tornadoes in North America, moti- Tornadogenesis Failure in Supercell vating study of their radar signatures for the benefit of the operational and research Thunderstorms. Atmosphere 2021, 12, communities. Since the polarimetric upgrade to the national radar network of the United 581. https://doi.org/ States (2011–2013), polarimetric radar signatures of these storms have become well-known, 10.3390/atmos12050581 e.g., [1–5], and many others. -
National Weather Service Reference Guide
National Weather Service Reference Guide Purpose of this Document he National Weather Service (NWS) provides many products and services which can be T used by other governmental agencies, Tribal Nations, the private sector, the public and the global community. The data and services provided by the NWS are designed to fulfill us- ers’ needs and provide valuable information in the areas of weather, hydrology and climate. In addition, the NWS has numerous partnerships with private and other government entities. These partnerships help facilitate the mission of the NWS, which is to protect life and prop- erty and enhance the national economy. This document is intended to serve as a reference guide and information manual of the products and services provided by the NWS on a na- tional basis. Editor’s note: Throughout this document, the term ―county‖ will be used to represent counties, parishes, and boroughs. Similarly, ―county warning area‖ will be used to represent the area of responsibility of all of- fices. The local forecast office at Buffalo, New York, January, 1899. The local National Weather Service Office in Tallahassee, FL, present day. 2 Table of Contents Click on description to go directly to the page. 1. What is the National Weather Service?…………………….………………………. 5 Mission Statement 6 Organizational Structure 7 County Warning Areas 8 Weather Forecast Office Staff 10 River Forecast Center Staff 13 NWS Directive System 14 2. Non-Routine Products and Services (watch/warning/advisory descriptions)..…….. 15 Convective Weather 16 Tropical Weather 17 Winter Weather 18 Hydrology 19 Coastal Flood 20 Marine Weather 21 Non-Precipitation 23 Fire Weather 24 Other 25 Statements 25 Other Non-Routine Products 26 Extreme Weather Wording 27 Verification and Performance Goals 28 Impact-Based Decision Support Services 30 Requesting a Spot Fire Weather Forecast 33 Hazardous Materials Emergency Support 34 Interactive Warning Team 37 HazCollect 38 Damage Surveys 40 Storm Data 44 Information Requests 46 3. -
Article Usage of Color Scales on Radar Maps
Bryant, B., M. Holiner, R. Kroot, K. Sherman-Morris, W. B. Smylie, L. Stryjewski, M. Thomas, and C. I. Williams, 2014: Usage of color scales on radar maps. J. Operational Meteor., 2 (14), 169179, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2014.0214. Journal of Operational Meteorology Article Usage of Color Scales on Radar Maps BRITTNEY BRYANT, MATTHEW HOLINER, RACHAEL KROOT, KATHLEEN SHERMAN-MORRIS, WILLIAM B. SMYLIE, LISA STRYJEWSKI, MEAGHAN THOMAS, and CHRISTOPHER I. WILLIAMS Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi (Manuscript received 3 October 2013; review completed 14 April 2014) ABSTRACT The visualization of rainfall rates and amounts using colored weather maps has become very common and is crucial for communicating weather information to the public. Little research has been done to investigate which color scales lead to the best understanding of a weather map; however, research has been performed on the general use of color and the theory behind it. Applying color theory specifically to weather maps, we designed this project to see if there was a statistically significant difference in an individual’s interpretation of weather data presented in two different color scales. We used a radar map and a storm-total precipitation map, each presented in both a rainbow scale and a monochromatic green scale, for a total of four images. A survey based on these images was distributed online to students at Mississippi State University. After analyzing the results, we found that people who received the radar image with the green scale were more likely to answer questions associated with that image correctly. However, there was no significant difference in accuracy between the two color scales on the storm-total precipitation map. -
The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center
AUGUST 1999 CORFIDI 507 The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center STEPHEN F. C ORFIDI NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 12 August 1998, in ®nal form 15 January 1999) ABSTRACT An overview of the birth and development of the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, formerly known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, is presented. While the center's immediate history dates to the middle of the twentieth century, the nation's ®rst centralized severe weather forecast effort actually appeared much earlier with the pioneering work of Army Signal Corps of®cer J. P. Finley in the 1870s. Little progress was made in the understanding or forecasting of severe convective weather after Finley until the nascent aviation industry fostered an interest in meteorology in the 1920s. Despite the increased attention, forecasts for tornadoes remained a rarity until Air Force forecasters E. J. Fawbush and R. C. Miller gained notoriety by correctly forecasting the second tornado to strike Tinker Air Force Base in one week on 25 March 1948. The success of this and later Fawbush and Miller efforts led the Weather Bureau (predecessor to the National Weather Service) to establish its own severe weather unit on a temporary basis in the Weather Bureau± Army±Navy (WBAN) Analysis Center Washington, D.C., in March 1952. The WBAN severe weather unit became a permanent, ®ve-man operation under the direction of K. M. Barnett on 21 May 1952. The group was responsible for the issuance of ``bulletins'' (watches) for tornadoes, high winds, and/or damaging hail; outlooks for severe convective weather were inaugurated in January 1953. -
National Weather Service Reference Guide
National Weather Service Reference Guide Purpose of this Document he National Weather Service (NWS) provides many products and services which can be T used by other governmental agencies, Tribal Nations, the private sector, the public and the global community. The data and services provided by the NWS are designed to fulfill us- ers’ needs and provide valuable information in the areas of weather, hydrology and climate. In addition, the NWS has numerous partnerships with private and other government entities. These partnerships help facilitate the mission of the NWS, which is to protect life and prop- erty and enhance the national economy. This document is intended to serve as a reference guide and information manual of the products and services provided by the NWS on a na- tional basis. Editor’s note: Throughout this document, the term ―county‖ will be used to represent counties, parishes, and boroughs. Similarly, ―county warning area‖ will be used to represent the area of responsibility of all of- fices. The local forecast office at Buffalo, New York, January, 1899. The local National Weather Service Office in Tallahassee, FL, present day. 2 Table of Contents Click on description to go directly to the page. 1. What is the National Weather Service?…………………….………………………. 5 Mission Statement 6 Organizational Structure 7 County Warning Areas 8 Weather Forecast Office Staff 10 River Forecast Center Staff 13 NWS Directive System 14 2. Non-Routine Products and Services (watch/warning/advisory descriptions)..…….. 15 Convective Weather 16 Tropical Weather 17 Winter Weather 18 Hydrology 19 Coastal Flood 20 Marine Weather 21 Non-Precipitation 23 Fire Weather 24 Other 25 Statements 25 Other Non-Routine Products 26 Extreme Weather Wording 27 Verification and Performance Goals 28 Impact-Based Decision Support Services 30 Requesting a Spot Fire Weather Forecast 33 Hazardous Materials Emergency Support 34 Interactive Warning Team 37 HazCollect 38 Damage Surveys 40 Storm Data 44 Information Requests 46 3. -
Program Agenda (Updated 10 October 2011) National Weather
Program Agenda (Updated 10 October 2011) changes or additions from previous update in red National Weather Association 36th Annual Meeting Wynfrey Hotel, Birmingham, Alabama October 15-20, 2011 Theme: The End Game - From Research and Technology to Best Forecast and Response See the main meeting page http://www.nwas.org/meetings/nwa2011/ for information on the meeting hotel, exhibits, sponsorships and registration Authors, please inform the Program Committee at [email protected] for any corrections or changes required in the listing of your presentations or abstracts as soon as possible. This agenda will be updated periodically as changes occur. Instructions for uploading your presentation to the FTP site can be found here. All presenters please read the presentation tips which explain the AV systems, poster board sizes and provide suggestions for good presentations. All activities will be held in the Wynfrey Hotel unless otherwise noted. Please check in at the NWA Information and Registration desk at the Wynfrey Hotel earliest to receive nametags, program and the most current information. Saturday, October 15 10:00am NWA Aviation Workshop at the Southern Museum of Flight. Contact Terry Lankford [email protected] for more information. The workshop is from 10 am until 1 pm. 10:00am NWA WeatherFest at the McWane Science Center. Contact James-Paul Dice [email protected] for more information. The event is from 10 am until 2 pm. 11:00am NWA Ninth Annual Scholarship Golf Outing, Bent Brook Golf Course, sponsored by Baron Services. Contact Betsy Kling [email protected] for more information or to sign-up. -
A Preliminary Investigation of Derecho-Producing Mcss In
P 3.1 TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADO RECORDS FOR THE MODERNIZED NWS ERA Roger Edwards1 Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK 1. INTRODUCTION and BACKGROUND since 1954 was attributable to the weakest (F0) bin of damage rating (Fig. 1). This is the very class of Tornadoes from tropical cyclones (hereafter TCs) tornado that is most common in TC records, and most pose a specialized forecast challenge at time scales difficult to detect in the damage above that from the ranging from days for outlooks to minutes for concurrent or subsequent passage of similarly warnings (Spratt et al. 1997, Edwards 1998, destructive, ambient TC winds. As such, it is possible Schneider and Sharp 2007, Edwards 2008). The (but not quantifiable) that many TC tornadoes have fundamental conceptual and physical tenets of gone unrecorded even in the modern NWS era, due midlatitude supercell prediction, in an ingredients- to their generally ephemeral nature, logistical based framework (e.g., Doswell 1987, Johns and difficulties of visual confirmation, presence of swaths Doswell 1992), fully apply to TC supercells; however, of sparsely populated near-coastal areas (i.e., systematic differences in the relative magnitudes of marshes, swamps and dense forests), and the moisture, instability, lift and shear in TCs (e.g., presence of damage inducers of potentially equal or McCaul 1991) contribute strongly to that challenge. greater impact within the TC envelope. Further, there is a growing realization that some TC tornadoes are not necessarily supercellular in origin (Edwards et al. 2010, this volume). Several major TC tornado climatologies have been published since the 1960s (e.g., Pearson and Sadowski 1965, Hill et al. -
Three-Body Scatter Spike
RADAR OBSERVATIONS OF A RARE “TRIPLE” THREE-BODY SCATTER SPIKE Phillip G. Kurimski NOAA/National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac, Michigan Weather Forecast Office Abstract afternoon and evening across northeast Wisconsin. The hail storms were responsible forOn 1over July 10.3 2006, million several dollars supercell of damage. thunderstorms The most produced intense storm significant produced hail during hail up the to late 4 in. in diameter that damaged over 100 cars and numerous homes in Oconto County, Wisconsin. This storm exhibited a rare, triple three-body scatter spike (TBSS) and a very long, impressive 51 mile TBSS. This paper will diagnose the structure and character of the paperhail cores will responsibleconnect the forunusually the multiple large TBSSscattering using angle several associated different with tools, the illustrating 51 mile longthat TBSSTBSS areto the 3-D increased features thatscattered are not energy confined responsible to a single for elevation the long TBSS.slice. In addition, Corresponding Author: Phillip G. Kurimski NOAA/ National Weather Service, 9200 White Lake Road, White Lake, Michigan 48386-1126 E-mail: [email protected] Kurimski 1. Introduction Since the early days of weather radar, radar operators three distinct TBSS signatures in a single volume scan andsignatures elevation has angle been is observed a phenomenon (Stan-Sion that haset al. yet 2007), to be result from large hail in a thunderstorm (Wilson and Reum documented and is the main motivation for this paper. The 1988).have noticed When athe “flare radar echo” beam down encounters the radial large believed hailstones to with a coating of liquid water, power from the radar is throughout this paper. -
The Historic Derecho of June 29, 2012
Service Assessment The Historic Derecho of June 29, 2012 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland Cover Photograph: Visible satellite image at 5 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) June 29, 2012, as the derecho moved across Ohio. National Lightning Data Network (NLDN) Cloud to ground (CG) lightning strikes for the 1-hour period, 4-5 p.m. EDT, are plotted in red. Surface observations are plotted in green. Smaller insets show radar reflectivity images of the derecho during the afternoon and evening. ii Service Assessment The Historic Derecho of June 29, 2012 January 2013 National Weather Service Laura K. Furgione Acting Assistant Administrator for Weather Services iii Preface On June 29, 2012, a derecho of historic proportions struck the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. The derecho traveled for 700 miles, impacting 10 states and Washington, D.C. The hardest hit states were Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, and Maryland, as well as Washington, D.C. The winds generated by this system were intense, with several measured gusts exceeding 80 mph. Unfortunately, 13 people were killed by the extreme winds, mainly by falling trees. An estimated 4 million customers lost power for up to a week. The region impacted by the derecho was also in the midst of a heat wave. The heat, coupled with the loss of power, led to a life-threatening situation. Heat claimed 34 lives in areas without power following the derecho. Due to the significance of this event, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service formed a Service Assessment Team to evaluate the National Weather Service’s performance before and during the event. -
STORM BASED WARNINGS: a REVIEW of the FIRST YEAR October 1, 2007 Through June 30, 2008 Report from NOAA/NWS, Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services
STORM BASED WARNINGS: A REVIEW OF THE FIRST YEAR October 1, 2007 through June 30, 2008 Report from NOAA/NWS, Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services Executive Summary October 1, 2007 marked a major milestone for the NWS’ Severe Storms Services Program with the operational national implementation of a new Storm-Based Warning (SBW) system. SBWs replaced the existing county-based warning system to alert the public of significant threats due to severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flash floods and dangerous off-shore conditions. At the heart of the SBW system is the provision of forecaster capability to specifically warn for those areas under the greatest hydrometeorological threat, rather than requiring the warning of entire counties for what are often very small scale events. NWS forecasters indicate these threat areas via the use of computer-drawn “polygons” with specific latitude-longitude coordinates, thereby enabling partner ingest and display using a variety of visual media, including television and the Internet. An active severe weather period began almost immediately after implementation of SBWs and continued through the first severe weather season. By all standard metrics, SBWs have been a success with levels of performance exceeding expectations. Still, there are significant issues that require continued evolution of software and policy to address. This report is focused on the period of October 1, 2007 through June 30, 2008 and treats warning performance with respect to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes only. Also, this report was written in mid-September 2008, so the official verification is only available through June 2008. However, this period encompasses a historically active severe weather season, so this report provides a statistically sound evaluation of SBW performance. -
Forensic Analysis
FORENSIC ANALYSIS CLAIM Location: 123 Sample Road, Brooklyn Center, MN Event Date(s): June 29, 2015 Prepared for: Sample PLLC Scope: Determine the possibility of severe, damaging hail impacting the Property on June 29, 2015. All data, observations and conclusions included in this report are based on the following data and materials: ● Watches, warnings and storm reports issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) in the Twin Cities accessed via Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) ● Historical KMPX Doppler Radar located in Chanhassen, MN accessed via GR2Analyst ● National Weather Service (NWS) hourly reporting stations accessed via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) ● Archived social media reports via Twitter ● Eye witness reports and photographs (Sample PLLC) ● Sample Engineering Report (Sample PLLC) 6569 City West Parkway, Eden Prairie, MN 55344 (952) 401 1005 www.praedictix.com 1 | Page FORENSIC ANALYSIS OVERVIEW Sample PLLC has requested a professional meteorological analysis of strong thunderstorms and subsequent hail damage that occurred at their Property located at or around 123 Sample Road, Brooklyn Center, Minnesota. We refer to this location as “the Property” in this report. We have been asked to review the weather conditions on June 29, 2015. Based on our analysis, the Property was subject to a severe thunderstorm on the evening of June 29, 2015. A series of strong storms impacted the north Minneapolis metro late that afternoon/evening with multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in the region. Large, damaging hail was confirmed with these thunderstorms as a sequence of storm damage reports recorded by trained weather spotters (Figure 1). The Property was grazed by a core of large hail produced by a severe thunderstorm between 7:14 PM and 7:19 PM on June 29, 2015.