Illinois General Assembly Election Update

Illinois General Assembly Election Update Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan lost five seats and picked up one for a net loss of four seats, which takes away the 71 supermajority that he currently holds. Of those losses, Speaker Madigan lost his three marquee races that he made a special effort with staff & campaign funds to win. 1) Merry Marwig vs. Rep. Michael McAuliffe (R-Chicago): Madigan's pollsters insisted Rep. McAuliffe could be beat right up to the very end. Madigan's top lieutenant, 13th Ward Ald. Marty Quinn ran the race against McAuliffe, put countless able bodies into the street, and still got beat by 13 points. McAuliffe prevailed with boots on the ground and millions of dollars in advertising that branded his hard-working, well-qualified opponent as a Madigan disciple. 2) Mike Mathis vs. Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Raymond): This was supposed to restore the glory days of Conservative, Downstate, blue-collar Democrats. Instead, the Republicans defeated Mathis by literally portraying him as a loyal soldier of Madigan's army. Mathis lost by 14 points. 3) Assistant House Majority Leader John Bradley (D-Marion): Legislative Leaders don’t typically lose. And they're definitely not supposed to lose by 8 points. Yes, the Trump headwinds were strong down in Southern Illinois but Bradley's House leadership position was what really did him in and his very close ties to Speaker Madigan. Madigan also lost all three of his I-80 corridor races, which, trended Republican this year. Rep. Kate Cloonen (D-Kankakee) managed to win two years ago against even stronger Republican headwinds, but she lost by eight points this year. Rep. Mike Smiddy (D-Hillsdale) like Cloonen, was infamously busted playing video games on the House floor. However, like Cloonen, Smiddy won two years ago against very strong headwinds and still lost by a mind-boggling 26 points yesterday after a months-long anti-Madigan push. Rep. Andy Skoog (D-LaSalle) has been connected at the hip to Madigan since before he was even appointed to fill the vacated seat by former Rep. Frank Mautino, now the Auditor General, even though this district was handily won by a Democrat four years ago. Speaker Madigan blamed President-elect Trump and Gov. Rauner's money for his losses. He is likely right on both counts. Governor Rauner's money was used to craft a powerful anti-Madigan message, and there is little doubt that his message contributed heavily to Madigan's losses. Madigan is, as polls exhibit, the most unpopular current politician in Illinois. The Governor was quick to figure out that tying people to the Speaker with tens of millions of dollars in disciplined messaging will work. Metro East Rep. Dan Beiser (D-Alton) won four years ago by 17 points, but won by just five this time. Part of that precipitous drop was likely due to Trump's appeal to his district's blue collar voters, but a big reason was the anti-Madigan messaging. Also in another Southern Illinois Senate race, Sen. Gary Forby (D-Benton) was defeated by more than 12 points. Madigan's organization did manage to defeat Rep. Dwight Kay (R-Glen Carbon) in the consistent swing district. Madigan's caucus members probably won't care about any of these losses and, as a result in 2018, there will be some hotly contested midterm elections in this state and Madigan is already the early favorite in many minds. But now that the Governor & the Republicans know their anti-Madigan message works, they probably won't be abandoning it any time soon. Unfortunately, what we have here is a legitimate excuse on both sides to continue this political battle. The new party breakdown in the General Assembly come this January when new members are sworn in; the Senate will have (37 Democrats & 22 Republicans); while in the House it will be (67 Democrats & 51 Republicans). .

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