10 December 4, 2015 News & Analysis Lebanon’s republic at a crossroads

The Arab Weekly staff tary-General Hassan Nasrallah pro- posed a “complete basket” to end the political stalemate by electing a new president, forming a new cabi- net and resuming parliament work ince the assassination of in line with the Saudi-sponsored former prime minister Taif agreement, which ended the Rafik Hariri in February Lebanese 1975-90 civil war. 2005, Lebanon has been Nasrallah seemed to dismiss facing the challenge of pre- claims that Iran wanted to alter the Sserving the structure of its political 1989 Taif accord for a new distribu- and sectarian forces and the fate of tion of powers among Lebanon’s its republic. sectarian groups. A surprise suggestion to elect MP to the post of Frangieh relies on president, which has been vacant the fact that his since 2014, was the first signal for a possible political compromise to friend, Assad, might end an almost 11-year of political be on his way out. schism. The political compromise stirred The process seems to have start- a situation in which political forces ed at the height of Iran-US nego- were divided into two main groups tiations about Tehran’s nuclear — one supporting Iranian-Syrian programme. Washington insisted policies and the other harmonising on a comprehensive political com- with the Saudi-led Arab coalition promise that would solve all crises and Western policies. in the Arab region and guarantee It triggered debate about the a balance of powers between Iran election of a friend of Syrian Presi- and the Arab world. The US admin- dent Bashar Assad, whose country istration was worried about conflict enjoyed military and intelligence between Sunnis and Shias and the influence in Lebanon for 29 years, rise of the Islamic State (ISIS). ending in April 2005, after Hariri’s The Saudi and Iranian stands, assassination and the breakout of voiced by Hariri and Nasrallah, fol- the . lowed Iranian-French meetings, The presidential election came held one and a half months ago, to the front with a stunning call for during which it was agreed to help a political compromise by former elect a president in Lebanon. The prime minister Saad Hariri, an ally move was thought necessary to of Saudi Arabia and a key critic of guarantee the sustainability of the Assad and Iran-backed ’s Lebanese republic with its Chris- involvement in ’s war. While tian-Muslim balance away from the some doubted the call’s serious- region’s military and security con- ness, Frangieh, a former cabinet flicts where minorities are paying minister, suddenly garnered more the price. international backing than other Lebanese officials were advised presidential candidates. that the international community could not help Lebanon anymore A surprise unless the Lebanese reached a po- A file picture of Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri (L) with leader of the pro-Syrian Christian suggestion to elect litical compromise to put the coun- Suleiman Frangieh. try on track. MP Suleiman According to well-informed Frangieh to the post sources in Beirut, Saudi Arabia may its 2008 use of armed force to gain cabinet’s seats to guarantee that the only if a comprehensive regional of president, was the not have given a final word about the right to veto cabinet decisions, opposing March 8 Coalition would compromise is reached. If regional the Lebanese presidential election. sources told The Arab Weekly. not overthrow it. This condition wars and crises continue, Lebanon’s first signal for a The US Ambassador to Lebanon They, however, noted that the worries Frangieh and Hezbollah be- cabinet and parliament would be possible political David Hale and Russian Deputy compromise needs to overcome the cause the March 14 Coalition could far from activity and productivity. compromise. Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov hurdle of a national agreement on strip Hezbollah from its official rec- Some argue that Frangieh’s elec- agreed on Frangieh. a new parliamentary election law. ognition as a resistance movement tion would preserve Lebanon’s Hariri’s call, however, came in Frangieh relies on the fact that his Christian forces want an election and turn Frangieh into a lame duck republic, otherwise there will be line with several political develop- friend, Assad, might be on his way law that would guarantee the elec- from the onset of his term. no president in Lebanon any time ments. First, Iranian Deputy For- out. The compromise is to include tion of Christian MPs by Christian A partnership between Frangieh soon. Maybe rescuing the Lebanese eign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdol- guarantees that Hezbollah would votes. and Hariri, who represent the con- republic “at a price” is a good thing lahian called for a presidential point its weapons strictly at ; Another hurdle is Hariri’s condi- flicting blocs in the region, would at a time republics in the region election in Lebanon. the group would not repeat its 2011 tion that his March 14 Coalition be be a “golden chance” for Lebanon, are collapsing. Take Iraq, Syria and Soon afterward, Hezbollah Secre- overthrowing of Hariri’s cabinet or granted more than two-thirds of the according to some politicians, but Yemen as examples. The Frangieh presidency and the revival of Taif

Viewpoint electing a president for agreement was brokered in Doha. Saudi-backed . sect, to whom the office has been Lebanon has proven to That agreement was supported by Hezbollah has expressed a tacit en- Hezbollah dedicated. His opponents in the be a complex process Tehran, Damascus, Riyadh, Qatar, thusiasm for Frangieh’s presidency. and allies in the that goes beyond merely Paris and Washington and stipulat- This unlikely intersection of Syrian, has have long voting for a candidate in ed a reform package to the satisfac- Iranian and Saudi support makes expressed sought the presidency for them- parliament. Consensus tion of Shia and Christian groups. him among the most promising a tacit selves. Originally each had been Ssectarian politics requires extra- The agreement entailed a new hopefuls for the post. promised the backing and support enthusiasm institutional political deliberation electoral law that sought to reverse There are good reasons for Syria, of their respective Muslim allies but and negotiation that mandate Christian parliamentary under- Iran and Hezbollah to place their for both appear to have been betrayed foreign consultation and sponsor- representation. It also required a long-term ally in power. His elec- Frangieh’s in favour of Frangieh. Imad ship. The convergence of domestic distribution of ministerial portfolios tion is sure to secure support for presidency. After all, Christians have opposed Salamey and foreign choices has histori- that secured Shia parties, along Hezbollah’s military establishment the Taif power deal for stripping cally proven a prerequisite for with their allies, a significant share in Lebanon and preserve Tehran’s the presidency — reserved for a electing a Lebanese president. of governmental portfolios. influence in the country. Frangieh Maronite Christian — of key pow- In 1989, an agreement was signed At the same time, the Doha agree- would also help contain Sunni radi- ers, handing them to a Muslim- in the Saudi city of Taif to redis- ment arguably paved the way for a cal militancy inside Lebanon and dominated parliament and cabinet. tribute power among Lebanese Saudi-Syrian rapprochement that across the Syrian border. In 1989, it took a Syrian military sectarian groups, end the civil war saw Saudi King Abdullah bin Ab- The Saudis and the Future Move- invasion to suppress renegade and pave the way for the election dulaziz Al Saud accompany Syrian ment hope that Frangieh’s elec- Christian voices, expel and jail of Rene Moawad as president. The President Bashar Assad to Lebanon tion would preserve their interests their leaders and impose the Taif agreement set the stage for joint in a bid to consolidate a forced part- while removing the country from republic. Saudi-Syrian guardianship over the nership over the country’s political the Syrian settlement bargain. And In 2015, such an option has been country, tilting the power balance fate. if Frangieh’s election comes with ruled out and selecting a president in favour of a Sunni-Shia sectarian The expiry of Suleiman’s presi- Saad Hariri, the head of the Future by consensus remains the only dominance, to the disadvantage of dential term in 2014 threw the Movement, being re-appointed viable route. Any agreement Christians. country back into a predicament prime minister this will reassure must entail a package of reform In 2008, was over succession. The conflict in Syr- them even more. initiatives to ensure an acceptable elected president with negligible ia and Hezbollah’s military involve- Though Frangieh’s election Muslim-Christian share of power. opposition after a power-sharing ment there deepened domestic would favour the Iranian-Syrian Will a Frangieh presidency and and regional rifts over the vacated axis of power, Hariri’s appoint- Hariri premiership be enough to presidency. ment as prime minister could secure this? The latest proposed nominee mitigate that for the Saudis. Such Selecting a president for is the northern Maronite leader a solution could serve as a testing Imad Salamey is an associate Suleiman Frangieh. His nomination ground for the restoration of shared professor of political science and Lebanon has proven to be appears the most promising to date Iranian-Saudi regional spheres of international affairs at the Lebanese a complex process. despite serious obstacles. influence. Lebanon is ultimately American University in Beirut, a To the surprise of many, too important for both sides. The senior policy adviser on Middle East Frangieh, who is a close ally of major hurdle to Frangieh’s ambi- and the author of The Government Assad, has been nominated by the tions lies among his own Maronite and .