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Eisa Pre-Election Assessment Mission Report Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa EISA PRE-ELECTION ASSESSMENT MISSION REPORT FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA MAY 2020 - AUGUST 2O20 EISA PRE-ELECTION ASSESSMENT MISSION REPORT | FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA | MAY 2020 - AUGUST 2O20 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 3 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 2. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT OF THE 2020 PARLIAMENTARY 5 ELECTIONS 3. ELECTORAL FRAMEWORK 7 3.1. The constitutional and legal framework: 7 3.2. The electoral system: 8 3.3. Party and campaign finance: 9 3.4. Election management: Overview: Structure and functions of the NEBE 9 4. KEY FINDINGS ON THE PRE-ELECTION PHASE 11 4.1. Preparedness of the EMB 11 5. ADVISORY NOTE TO INTERNATIONAL EOMs 12 4,1. Deployment advice 12 4,2. Logistical considerations 12 4.3. Security considerations 13 6. RECOMMENDATIONS 13 Before the forthcoming elections 7. APPENDICES 13 2 EISA PRE-ELECTION ASSESSMENT MISSION REPORT | FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA | MAY 2020 - AUGUST 2O20 List of Abbreviations AU African Union Covid-19 Coronavirus disease of 2019 CSOs Civil Society Organisations EISA Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa EPRDF Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front FPTP First-Past-The -Post NEBE National Electoral Board of Ethiopia OFC Oromo Federalist Congress OMN Oromo Media Network PAM Pre-Election Assessment Mission PEMMO Principles for Election Management, Monitoring and Observation (PEMMO) PM Prime Minister SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region TCC The Carter Center TPLF Tigray Peoples Liberation Front 3 EISA PRE-ELECTION ASSESSMENT MISSION REPORT | FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA | MAY 2020 - AUGUST 2O20 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . The 6th parliamentary elections are highly anticipated owing to the charged political developments in the The Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in country due to nationwide anti-government protests that Africa (EISA) seeks to contribute to improved electoral led to the unprecedented resignation of Prime Minister processes on the African continent. In line with its Haile Mariam Desalegn, on 15 February 2018. This led to objective, it deployed a virtual pre-election assessment a narrow window of opportunity for meaningful reforms mission (PAM) to Ethiopia from May 2020 to August that would pave the path for credible elections as many 2020. The PAM sought to ascertain whether the pre- opposition groups were subsequently unbanned and the election environment was conducive for the conduct of new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, promised to deliver democratic parliamentary elections that were scheduled credible elections. The indefinite postponement of the to take place in August 2020. The elections have been August 2020 parliamentary elections formed part of indefinitely postponed due to the impact of covid-19. the government’s response to the risk of Covid-19. The Due to global travel restrictions imposed by Covid-19, the postponement, and the five-month state of emergency, EISA PAM conducted online consultations with various anti-government protests and unhappiness with the electoral stakeholders operating in Ethiopia to assess their indefinite extension parliamentary term limits that would state of preparedness and gather their perspectives about have expired in October 2020, have since exacerbated the 2020 parliamentary elections and a political expert on tensions. Several opposition politicians, in particular the prevailing political environment. The consultations, from the Oromo ethnic group, the largest ethnic group in however, coincided with the two-week internet shutdown Ethiopia, have been arrested following violence that left in Ethiopia and unrest following the murder of a popular 166 people dead on June 29, 2020. The largest opposition musician Hachalu Hundessa, who was a respected party leader, Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) president, political voice for the Oromo ethnic group. These events Dawud Ibsa, said five party officials, including two political caused a climate of political instability in the country and advisers, Chaltu Takkele and Gemmechu Ayana, and contributed to a climate of censorship as online modes of central committee member Kennesa Ayana, had been communication were disabled. arrested. The EISA PAM’s assessment is based on international The EISA PAM is of the view that Ethiopia is at a critical benchmarks for democratic elections provided in the juncture and that many positive developments have African Charter for Democracy, Elections and Governance; improved the likelihood of a credible electoral process. the AU/OAU Declaration on the Principles Governing It is important for all stakeholders to protect the positive Democratic Elections in Africa; the Declaration of gains made from 2018 up until now to avoid a regression Principles for International Election Observation, the into a more closed political space. Therefore, open Principles for Election Management, Monitoring and communication amongst stakeholders, a respect for Observation (PEMMO) and the Ethiopian legal framework human rights and access to information is vital at a time for elections. The EISA PAM to Ethiopia was conducted where social distancing is mandatory. by Professor Raphaël Ouattara, the EISA Country Director in the the Democratic Republic of Congo field office and In February 2021, after three months of conflict in the Ms Noxolo Gwala, Assistant Programme Officer of the Tigray region, UN agencies described the situation as Governance Institutions and Political Processes (GIPPS) "dramatic". Mr Jens Laerke, spokesperson for the UN Office department, EISA Johannesburg. for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), declared that "the humanitarian response remains very limited and inadequate." Therefore, there is no certainty 4 EISA PRE-ELECTION ASSESSMENT MISSION REPORT | FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA | MAY 2020 - AUGUST 2O20 on how the highly contested upcoming national election, 2. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT scheduled to take place in June 2021 will unfold amidst an OF THE 2020 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ongoing pandemic and a continuing state of emergency. Ethiopia is Africa’s second most populous country with an Nevertheless, the EISA PAM mission recommends some estimated population of 115 million people, with a growth avenues to explore so that the elections are an opportunity rate of 3,02%, projected to double in the next 30 years1. for peace and democracy. Located in East Africa, Ethiopia is landlocked and shares borders with Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, South • Before the forthcoming elections, the National Sudan, and Sudan. There are over 80 ethnic groups in Elections Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) should keep Ethiopia with the Oromo, Amhara, Tigrayans and Sidamo channels of communication open to ease any concerns constituting over 62% of the population2. Ethiopia is a that stakeholders may have. nascent democracy that has struggled to create multiparty • Political parties should conduct training of party democracy for nearly two decades. The recurrent violence agents to ensure that they are able to effectively utilise that Ethiopia has experienced calls for an inclusive electoral the available legal avenues at polling station level and system that is representative and fair for all, including upwards in case of disputes. minorities. Although the Ethiopian electoral system, first- • The government, the EMB and the courts should past-the-post, is strong in creating cohesive government ensure that newly introduced legal provisions should and ensuring accountability of members at constituency be widely publicised and disseminated so that any level, among others, it is blamed for misrepresenting concerns can be addressed ahead of the elections. smaller parties, failing to create interethnic or intercultural • There should be close collaboration between the conciliation, and affecting multiparty democracy. This, NEBE and security forces regarding hotspots for together with federalism, remains a major challenge of the violence/conflict to ensure that prospective voters are next elections to consolidate Ethiopia federalism system. not unduly disenfranchised. • The state of emergency must be lifted to facilitate Ethiopia has followed a trajectory that is unique from political parties’ activities: fundamental freedom other African countries as it is the oldest independent principles shall be guaranteed as by the Constitution. country. Notwithstanding, the country has experienced • The federal government must take strong actions that much political instability due to decades of military rule reassure the populations and guarantee the safety of challenged by rebel groups, ethnic and religious tensions. all citizens, including, for example, access to Compared to other countries in Africa, Ethiopia has also humanitarian assistance for internally displaced recorded several territorial conflicts over Eritrea, Ogaden, persons (IDPs) in the Tigray region. Afar, Oromia and Sidama. After 17 years of civil war, • Civil society must support and implement campaigns the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front that promote forgiveness, reconciliation and (EPRDF) made up of a coalition of Ethiopian rebellion awareness. forces, successfully ended the Mengistu Haile Mariam • Peace and security should be established for inclusive military regime in May 1991. The country adopted a and credible elections. third Constitution that established Ethiopia as a federal democracy in 1994. The constitution cemented ethnicity as the cornerstone for its
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