International Atomic Energy Agency Update Paper

Topic A: Non-Proliferation Today

While possession of nuclear weapons has, so far, been restricted to a small group of nations, there are many reasons to worry about nuclear non-proliferation today. The most pressing situation is that of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. In the past two years, Kim Jung-Un and his government have conducted three nuclear tests, the most recent of which took place in September,

2017. 1 Experts estimate that the tested explosive had a yield of about 100 kilotonnes, making it about eight times the size of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 and North Korea’s the largest test by far. North Korean officials have claimed that the bomb detonated was a thermonuclear device ( bomb) capable of being mounted on an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile). 2

While many Western authorities do not believe that the North Koreans are currently capable of launching a nuclear device on an ICBM, some believe that they could have this ability within the year. If they succeed, this would likely endanger current nuclear agreements between the United

States and its allies in Asia (, ) by planting doubt as to whether or not the U.S. would actually defend Seoul or Tokyo if Los Angeles were to be threatened. 3

For this reason, North Korea’s nuclear tests may have serious consequences for international non-proliferation agreements as neighboring countries look for ways to counter North Korea’s attempt at gaining more power in the region. Some experts fear that North Korea’s actions may lead to Japan or South Korea developing a nuclear weapons program, which could lead to further power imbalances in the region. Both countries have advanced nuclear for civilian usage,

1 “Timeline of North Korea’s nuclear tests,” Al Jazeera (September 2, 2017). http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/timeline-north-korea-nuclear-tests-170903061228305.html. Site visited December 27, 2017. 2 “North Korea Nuclear Timeline Fast Facts,” CNN (September 4, 2017). http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/29/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-timeline---fast-facts/index.html. Site visited December 27, 2017. 3 Ibid

which means that it would be fairly easy for them to develop weapons – Japan, for instance, has large amounts of stored away, which it could use to quickly make a bomb if needed.4 If

North Korea reaches its supposed goal of being able to strike the mainland , then

Japan and South Korea may feel forced into developing weapons for their own defense, just as

European fears that the Americans would not defend them in the case of nuclear attack led to proliferation by Britain and in the second half of the twentieth century. Such developments would not only endanger the principles of nuclear non-proliferation, they could also lead to a dangerous arms race or nuclear standoff between Asian powers.

Topic A: North Korea’s ICBMs

In recent months, the testing of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) by the North

Korean government has been a source of tremendous concern for the international community.

Tests of missiles prior to the summer of 2017 were limited to medium range ballistic missiles (1,000-

3,000 km). However, on July 4th, a missile with an estimated range of 8,000 km was tested. It was designated the Hwasong-14. On July 28th, another missile with a range of nearly 11,000 kilometers was tested. Several other tests took place in the fall, culminating in the most advanced North Korean missile to date, the Hwasong-15, being tested on November 28th. The range of this new missile was

13,000 kilometers, which puts most of the world aside from South America and Antarctica within range.5 It is believed that it is possible to mount nuclear warheads on these ICBMs. The United

Nations Security Council has adopted 3 resolutions containing sanctions against North Korea since the ICBM testing began.

4 “The state of global nuclear weapons today, and why North Korean tests would be suicidal,” Friedman, George, et Snyder, Xander, et Ligon, Cheyenne (April 18, 2017). http://www.businessinsider.com/global-nuclear-weapons-and- why-north-korean-tests-would-be-suicidal-2017-4. Site visited December 27, 2017. 5 “Timeline of 2017 North Korea missile and nuclear tests,” Farber, Michelle et Schallhorn, Kaitlyn (November 28. 2017). http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/11/28/timeline-2017-north-korea-missile-and-nuclear-tests.html. Site visited December 27, 2017.

Furthermore, the testing of nuclear weapons by the North Korean government has continued. The nation conducted its sixth nuclear test on September 3rd in defiance of the United

Nations. The yield of this test was estimated to be somewhere between 70 and 280 kilotons of TNT equivalent by United States intelligence, between 5 and 20 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. 6

It is believed that this test represents a significant leap in technology by the state, as all previous tests have had a yield of less than 25 kilotons. The North Korean government claims that the weapon was a fusion device, but this is contested by some analysts. As a consequence of actions taken in the past year, the situation on the Korean Peninsula remains uncertain. On December 24th, a representative of the North Korean government stated that the latest round of UN sanctions amounted to a declaration of war, although similar language has been used in the past. 7

Topic A: North Korea and the United States

Over the past year, North Korea has performed increasingly successful missile tests that show both a boost in power and range in their ability to deliver nuclear weapons. North Korea tested a single during 2017 on September 3, but that weapon was at least 14 times as powerful as any previous test they had conducted. This also substantiates the North Korea’s claim to have fusion weapons. North Korea has also performed many missile tests, with the most recent test of the Hwasong-15 on November 28 having a potential range of over 12,500 kilometers.8 This range now encompasses all of the United States and is more than three times as large as the North Korean

6 “North Korea’s nuclear test may have been twice as strong as first thought,” Ye Hee Lee, Michelle (September 13, 2017). https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-nuclear-test-maybe-have-been-twice-as-strong-as-first- thought/2017/09/13/19b026d8-985b-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html?utm_term=.fe539cf54f40. Site visited December 27, 2017. 7 “North Korea calls latest UN sanctions ‘an act of war,’” Karimi, Faith et Griffiths, James (December 24, 2017). http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/24/politics/north-korea-un-resolution-response/index.html. Site visited December 27, 2017. 8 Landler, Mark, et al. “North Korea Fires a Ballistic Missile, in a Further Challenge to Trump.” , The New York Times, 28 Nov. 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/11/28/world/asia/north-korea-missile- test.html?_r=0.

missile range in 2016. The only difficulty in this development is the ability to combine these two technologies. North Korea must be able to build a nuclear device small enough to fit on the end of this missile, or to miniaturize their nuclear weapon technology. This is not confirmed, but it is very likely that the technology will soon be, if it is not already, developed. These technological developments have been among the most important in the history of the North Korean missile program with rapid and varied development of new and improved weapons and delivery systems.

All of these technological advancements occurred simultaneously with increasing tension between North Korea and the United States. President Trump has shown increasingly hostile activity towards North Korea. He has placed North Korea on the list of state sponsors of terrorism and insulted Kim Jong-un on Twitter. This situation is extraordinarily dangerous with the nuclear arsenals of the two countries. North Korea has moved out of the territory of general mockery and has become a legitimate global threat with successful nuclear weapons. The threat of a much more hostile US government has encouraged the North Korean government to brandish with its firepower. There are threats that North Koreans are fueling their missiles horizontally before they are set to launch, which makes the missiles much faster to launch because they are already fueled when they are placed on the launchpad. This adds to their already present arsenal of missiles that carry solid fuel. These solid fuel missiles are also fueled before they are placed on the launchpad.9

Missiles that launch faster are harder to prepare for and consequently cause more casualties. In the wake of President Trump’s comments, these preparations and threats for war exemplify the precarious position of current world politics, akin to those of the .

9 Taylor, Adam, and Tim Meko. “Analysis | What made North Korea’s weapons programs so much scarier in 2017.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 21 Dec. 2017, www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/12/21/what- made-north-koreas-weapons-programs-so-much-scarier-in-2017/?utm_term=.f871046d070b.

Topic B: Nuclear

Nuclear energy has been a mainstay in the French energy composition since the oil shock of

1974, and has reached a tipping point; with cheaper and more cost-effective renewable energy sources on the horizon and an aging spread of nuclear reactors, France, a country that uses to produce 77% of its electricity needs, is poised for denuclearization into a green future.10

French President has elected to reduce France’s nuclear capacity to 50% of its electricity needs by 2025, consistent with the 2014 bill “Energy Transition for Green Growth” passed by the National Assembly.11 France’s nuclear success has enabled it to contribute less carbon to the atmosphere while still producing copious amounts of energy. Nuclear energy’s success in

France was not only due to its 58 reactors, but also was helped tremendously by a decision to use a closed fuel cycle, which allows reprocessing of nuclear fuel.12 Reprocessing allows for 30% more energy to be extracted from the fuel as well as drastically reducing the amounts of nuclear waste that would have to be contained afterwards.13 Advanced Generation IV fast reactors are set to use any leftover plutonium from nuclear processes, further reducing any while producing power.14

Over the course of France’s golden age for nuclear energy, green alternatives were consistently improved, opening up the potential for France to be the first country to use nuclear energy as a bridge to green alternatives. The French government itself has encouraged private investment in renewables, and Macron has consistently emphasized that France’s position is one

10 “,” World Nuclear Association (October 2017). http://www.world-nuclear.org/information- library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx. Site visited December 28, 2017.; “French Emissions; Nuclear Limitations,” The Globalist (June 3, 2017). https://www.theglobalist.com/french-emissions-nuclear-limitations/. Site visited December 28, 2017. 11 “Nuclear Power in France,” World Nuclear Association (Site visited December 28, 2017); “The next French President’s Nuclear Problem,” Soletty, Marion and Stefanini, Sara (April 20, 2017). https://www.politico.eu/article/the- next-french-presidents-nuclear-problem-election-france-power-energy/. Site visited December 28, 2017. 12 “Nuclear Power in France,” World Nuclear Association (Site visited December 28, 2017); 13 Ibid 14 Ibid

such that the base-load it had needed from nuclear energy can now be shouldered by renewable sources since France’s energy consumption has been decreasing.15 However, not every country has decreasing energy demands, and as the world looks towards expanding populations in Africa and

Southeast Asia, it is clear that massive energy base-loads will be required. France’s path to renewables started with a solid and planned nuclear energy program that provided it a base-load and the ability to support an expanding population. Now, France can substitute renewables into the mix, and provide a guide for growing countries how to maintain a nuclear base-load and transition without heavily relying on carbon-based fuels.

Topic B: International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

The world’s foremost nuclear fusion research project reached an important milestone in

December 2017, as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, or ITER, announced it was halfway to its first major goal of being operational- “first .”16 Today, all commercial nuclear power plants use , the process of splitting unstable nuclei and converting the released energy into electrical power for consumption. While fission is capable of producing massive amounts of power at a far more efficient fuel-to-power ratio than any other non-renewable fuel, nuclear fusion has several advantages, including the potential for far larger power outputs, far less radioactive waste, and less risk of dangerous meltdowns. However, the technology for efficient nuclear fusion is not yet available. ITER is an experimental reactor designed to demonstrate the possibility for nuclear fusion as a viable power source. The project is building the world’s largest , a magnetic fusion reactor using the hydrogen isotopes of deuterium and tritium, in southern France. Contained inside a magnetic field, the two elements are superheated into an

15 “The Energy Future of France: Macron’s Agenda,” Battistini, Enrique (May 10, 2017). http://www.magnuscmd.com/the-energy-future-of-france-macrons-agenda/. Site visited December 28, 2017. 16 “ITER Nuclear Fusion Project Reaches Key Halfway Milestone,” Harvey, Fiona (December 6, 2017). https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/06/iter-nuclear-fusion-project-reaches-key-halfway- milestone . Site accessed December 28, 2017.

ionized gas, or plasma, hot enough to overcome the forces separating the nuclei, and causing nuclear fusion.17

ITER will not be used for electrical production itself, but will be a proof of concept for several key processes needed for viable : producing 500 MW output of fusion power from 50 MW of input power, vastly outstripping the current record for such a reactor, the JET tokamak at 24 MW, producing, at times, a reaction sustained by its own heat, and demonstrating the safety of such a device. If it achieves these goals, ITER will be the first fusion reactor to maintain a fusion reactor for a long period of time, and to produce net energy, outputting more energy than is used to power the reactor. Thirty-five nations are collaborating on the project, including , the

European Union, , Japan, , South Korea, and the United States. All these nations, signatories to the 2006 ITER agreement, will share construction costs, with the EU bearing 45.6%, and all other signatories sharing the rest of the cost evenly, at 9.1% each. The results of the experiment, and any resulting intellectual property, will be shared among the signatories as well.

The project is on track to achieve its first plasma test by 2025, although there has been some concern about the United States’ participation, as the US Senate has so far refused to appropriate funds for ITER for 2018.18 The first full fusion reactions will begin ten years later, in 2035. After

ITER, there has been discussion of creating a Demonstration Power Station (DEMO), a working commercial fusion power station. The most recent plans, presented by the European Fusion

Development (EFDA) in 2012, would have had construction being in 2031 to begin operation by

2044.19 However, EFDA was succeeded in 2013 by EUROfusion, a new group of fusion research

. 17 “In A Few Lines” International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (2017) https://www.iter.org/proj/inafewlines. Site visited December 28, 2017. 18 “U.S. Should Support ITER Fusion Project, Says Expert Panel,” Marshall, Christa and E&E News (December 21, 2017). http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/12/us-should-support-iter-fusion-project-says-expert-panel. Site visited December 28. 2017. 19 “Fusion Electricity,” European Fusion Decelopment (2013). https://www.euro-fusion.org/wpcms/wp- content/uploads/2013/01/JG12.356-web.pdf. Site visited December 28, 2017.

institutes, and the plan has not been updated since 2012.

Some other fusion research projects are worth mentioning. The U.S. National Ignition

Facility has been pursuing similar research to ITER, on a smaller scale, and recently a group of

Australian scientists claimed that a new method of fusion, involved colliding hydrogen and boron nuclei together with laser pulses, would be more feasible than the approaches of ITER or NIF.20 An

Australian company holding their patents to their research claims that, barring unforeseen obstacles, they could “have a prototype reactor within a decade.”

20 “Laser-initiated hydrogen-boron fusion now ‘leading contender’ for energy source,” Wallace, John (December 27, 2017) http://www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/2017/12/laser-initiated-hydrogen-boron-fusion-now-leading-cont ender-for-energy-source.html. Site visited December 28, 2017.

Works Cited “French Emissions; Nuclear Limitations,” The Globalist (June 3, 2017). https://www.theglobalist.com/french-emissions-nuclear-limitations/. Site visited December 28, 2017.

“Fusion Electricity,” European Fusion Decelopment (2013). https://www.euro- fusion.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/JG12.356-web.pdf. Site visited December 28, 2017.

“In A Few Lines” International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (2017) .https://www.iter.org/proj/inafewlines. Site visited December 28, 2017.

“ITER Nuclear Fusion Project Reaches Key Halfway Milestone,” Harvey, Fiona (December 6, 2017). https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/06/iter-nuclear-fusion- project-reaches-key-halfway- milestone . Site accessed December 28, 2017.

Landler, Mark, et al. “North Korea Fires a Ballistic Missile, in a Further Challenge to Trump.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 28 Nov. 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/11/28/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test.html?_r=0.

“Laser-initiated hydrogen-boron fusion now ‘leading contender’ for energy source,” Wallace, John (December 27, 2017) http://www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/2017/12/laser-initiated- hydrogen-boron-fusion-now-leading-cont ender-for-energy-source.html. Site visited December 28, 2017.

“North Korea calls latest UN sanctions ‘an act of war,’” Karimi, Faith et Griffiths, James (December 24, 2017). http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/24/politics/north-korea-un-resolution- response/index.html. Site visited December 27, 2017.

“North Korea’s nuclear test may have been twice as strong as first thought,” Ye Hee Lee, Michelle (September 13, 2017). https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-nuclear-test- maybe-have-been-twice-as-strong-as-first-thought/2017/09/13/19b026d8-985b-11e7-a527- 3573bd073e02_story.html?utm_term=.fe539cf54f40. Site visited December 27, 2017.

“North Korea Nuclear Timeline Fast Facts,” CNN (September 4, 2017). http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/29/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-timeline---fast- facts/index.html. Site visited December 27, 2017.

“Nuclear Power in France,” World Nuclear Association (October 2017). http://www.world- nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx. Site visited December 28, 2017.

Taylor, Adam, and Tim Meko. “Analysis | What made North Korea’s weapons programs so much scarier in 2017.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 21 Dec. 2017, www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/12/21/what-made-north-koreas- weapons-programs-so-much-scarier-in-2017/?utm_term=.f871046d070b.

“The Energy Future of France: Macron’s Agenda,” Battistini, Enrique (May 10, 2017). http://www.magnuscmd.com/the-energy-future-of-france-macrons-agenda/. Site visited December 28, 2017.

“The next French President’s Nuclear Problem,” Soletty, Marion and Stefanini, Sara (April 20, 2017). https://www.politico.eu/article/the-next-french-presidents-nuclear-problem- election-france-power-energy/. Site visited December 28, 2017.

“The state of global nuclear weapons today, and why North Korean tests would be suicidal,” Friedman, George, et Snyder, Xander, et Ligon, Cheyenne (April 18, 2017). http://www.businessinsider.com/global-nuclear-weapons-and-why-north-korean-tests- would-be-suicidal-2017-4. Site visited December 27, 2017.

“Timeline of 2017 North Korea missile and nuclear tests,” Farber, Michelle et Schallhorn, Kaitlyn (November 28. 2017). http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/11/28/timeline-2017-north- korea-missile-and-nuclear-tests.html. Site visited December 27, 2017.

“Timeline of North Korea’s nuclear tests,” Al Jazeera (September 2, 2017). http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/timeline-north-korea-nuclear-tests- 170903061228305.html. Site visited December 27, 2017.

“U.S. Should Support ITER Fusion Project, Says Expert Panel,” Marshall, Christa and E&E News (December 21, 2017). http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/12/us-should-support-iter- fusion-project-says-expert-panel. Site visited December 28. 2017.