Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 11Th to 20Th January 2021

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL

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ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 68

Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 11th to 20th January 2021

th 11 January 2021

© NOCC January 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography).

ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°6 8 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11th to 20th January 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021. This dekad from 11th to 20th January 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan. This dry and dusty wind

(Harmattan) will extend its action in the five agro-ecological zones of Cameroon.

II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Tibati in the Adamawa region; - Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Obala, Yaounde, Ngoro, Yoko and Eseka in the Centre region; - Yokadouma, Belabo, Batouri, Garoua-Boulai, Lomie, Moloundou, Ngoyla, Bertoua and Betare-Oya, in the East region; - Yabassi, Loum and in the Littoral region. NB1: This dekad from the 11th to 20th January 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heat waves (number of successive days with temperatures above 30°C) in the North, Adamawa, Centre, East and Littoral region, as well as by an increase in the number of hot nights in certain localities in the Centre, South, Littoral, South West region and the eastern and southern parts of the East region.

II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of registering a decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic meanfor the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include; - Yagoua, Makari, Kousseri, Mora, Maga, Kaikai, Bogo, Maroua and Mokolo in the Far North region; - Poli, Touboro, Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Pitoa, Garoua and Dembo in the North region; - Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Tivbati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - Moloundou, Abong Mbang, Mindourou, Belabo, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla, Garoua-Boulai, Betare Oya and Yokadouma in the East region; - Akom II, Djoum, Lolodorf and Ebolowa in the South region; - Ndop, Wum, Bali, Nwa Kumbo, Santa, BAmenda and Benakuma in the North West region; - Mamfe, Eyumojock and Nguti in the South West region. NB2: This dekad from the 11th to 20th January 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of cold nights in many localities in the Far North, North, Adama wa, East, South, North West and South West regions, following a large decrease in minimum temperatures due to the influence of the Harmattan coupled with fresh winds from the Middle East and Southern Europe.

II.1.3. Thermal Differences This dekad from 11th to 20th January 2021 will be marked by an increase in daily temperature differences at Tibati in the Adamawa region; Yokadouma, Belabo, Garoua-Boulai, Betare Oya, Lomie, Ngoyla and Bertoua, in the East region.

II.2. For Precipitation This dekad from the 11th to 20th January will be characterized by a strong influence of the Harmattan over the entire national territory. This influence would be evident through dry and dusty winds. Nonetheless, the Littoral and western part of the South region and South West region could experience localised rains due to their proximity to the atlanti c ocean. On the other hand, the continental part of the aforementioned regions could experience sporadic rainfall of low intensity. Thus, this dekad will be marked by a greater aridity compared to that observed in the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021, evident through an extreme scarcity of rainfall in the Far North, North, Adamawa, North West, West, Centre and East regions.

th th

NB3: This decade, from 11 to 20 January 2021, will be characterized by a risk of recording a very high increase in evapotranspiration, with the

consequence of a progressive decrease in water resources in certain dams located in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Lagdo) and in the high Guinean Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version). savannah zone (Mbakaou).

2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th January 2021

1) For precipitation

The dekad from the 11th to 20th January 2021 would be characterized more aridity over the national territory due to the influence of the Harmattan, translated by dry and dusty winds, with the scarcity of rainfall. Thus for this period we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (North and Far North regions), characterized by an extreme scarcity of rainfall, high evapotranspiration and aridity of the atmosphere. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone an extension of the dry season in the (a) (b) Guinea High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), characterized by an extreme scarcity of rainfall, high evapotranspiration and aridity of the atmosphere. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone This decade from 11th to 20th January 2021 corresponds to: - the extension of the long dry season in the Centre and East regions, following the influence of the Harmattan characterised by a scarcity in rainfall; - the extension of the long dry season in the South region. Note however that the said dekad could be characterized by localised rainfall in the western part of the South region ( Kribi, Campo, Nyabizan and Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that Lolodorf), due to the influence of the recorded during the period January 1-10, 2021 (a) proximity of the Atlantic Ocean as Source: NOCC, January 2021 well as some sporadic and localised rainfall in the continental part of the said region. d) In the high plateaux zone th th This dekad from the 11 to 20 January NB 4: 2021 corresponds to the extension of the During this dekad from 11th to 20th January 2020, we expect: dry season in the West and North West - a likelihood of sporadic rains on the coastal strip of Cameroon, particularly regions, characterized by a scarcity in in the west of the Littoral, South and South West regions, due to the influence rainfall. of the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean; e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest - an extension of the dry season in the Sudano Sahelian zone (Far North and zone North regions), Guinea High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the High This dekad from the 11th to 20th January Plateau zone (West and North West regions) and the Mono-modal rainfall 2021 corresponds to the extension of forest zone (Littoral and South West regions); the dry season in the South West and - an extension of the long dry season in the Centre, South and East regions, Littoral regions. (Bimodal rainfall Forest zone); However, the localities in the western part of this agro-ecological zone could record sporadic and localised rains due to their proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, as well as sporadic rainfall in the continental part of the zone.

2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Magba, Dschang, Based on the historical maximum temperatures averages recorded for this Bangangte, Foumbot, Massagam, Bazou, Koutaba, Foumban, Bafoussam, Mbouda, dekad for the period from 1979 to 2018, notably: 32.6°C in the Far North Makam and Tonga and in the West region; region; 33°C in the North region; 30.66°C in the Adamawa region; 29.5°C in - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Dikome the Centre region; 29.55°C in the South region; 29.5°C in the region East; 28 .75°C in the West region; 29.5°C in the North West region; 29.2°C in the Balue, Muyuka, Mamfe, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Fontem, Ekok; below the historical average in Limbe, Buea, Idenau and Tiko; above the historical South West region; and 28.53°C in the Littoral region; the following maximum temperatures are expected for the dekad from January 11 to 20 average in Kumba in the South West region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yabassi, Loum and 202 1: - below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Maga, Melong; around the historical average in Nkondjock, Manjo, Nkongsamba,

Makari, Yagoua, Waza, Kousseri, Maroua, Mora, Mindif, Kaele, Mokolo Dibombari, Bare-Bakem, Mbanga, Dizangue, Penja, Douala and Edea; around the

and Bogo in the Far North region; historical average in Mouanko in the Littoral region. - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua, Tchollire, Lagdo, Pitoa, Poli, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Guider and Dembo in the North region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tibati; below the historical average in Ngaoundere and; around the historical average in Meiganga, Ngaoundal, Tignere and Banyo in the Adamawa region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Obala, Yaounde, Ngoro, Yoko and Eseka in the Centre region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yokadouma, (a) Belabo, Batouri, Garoua-Boulai, Lomie, Moloundou, Ngoyla, Bertoua and (b) Betare-Oya; around the historical average in Abong-Mbang and Mindourou in the East region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Djoum, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Akom II, Ambam and Nyabizan; below the historical average in Kribi, Campo and Lolodorf in the South region; - below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Wum, Benakuma, Bali, Ndop, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom, Ako, Kumbo, Ndu, Munkep, Fundong and Nwa in the North West region.

Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, January 2021)

4 Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded - around the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021 in in the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021, for the dekad from 11th to 20th Wum, Benakuma, Bali, Kumbo, Munkep, Bamenda, Santa, Fundong and Janaury 2021, there is a high probability of registering mean maximum Nwa in the North West region; temperatures: st th st th - around the average recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 January 2021 in - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 January 2021 in Njimom, Malantouen, Koutaba, Magba, Massagam, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mokolo, Bogo, Maroua, Kaele, Mora, Yagoua, Waza, Kousseri, Mindif Kouoptamo, Batcham, Bafang, Bangangte, Dschang, Makam, Foumban; and Maga in the Far North region; below the average in Mbouda, Bazou and Tonga in the West region. - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021 in, Rey-Bouba, Dembo, Tchollire, Touboro, Poli, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo in the North region; - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021 in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Ngaoundere and Meiganga; around the average at Banyo and Tignere in the Adamawa region; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021 in Moloundou and Ngoyla; below the average in Betare-Oya and Garoua- Boulai; around the average in Bertoua, Yokadouma, Lomie, Abong- Mbang, Mindourou, Batouri and Belabo in the East region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021 in Deuk, Ngoro, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Yoko, Monatele, Mbandjock, (a) Messondo, Nkoteng, Obala, Bafia, Mbalmayo, Yaounde and Eseka in the (b) Centre region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021 2020 in Ambam, Sangmelima, Djoum, Kribi, Zoetele, Campo, Nyabizan, and Ebolowa; above the average in Akom II; below the average in Lolodorf and in the South region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021 in Tiko, Kumba, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Idenau, Buea, Fontem, Muyuka, Limbe and Nguti in the South West region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021 in Ngambe, Yingui, Edea, Ndom, Yabassi, Dizangue, Melong, Nkongsamba, Bare-Bakem, Pouma, Mouanko Manjo and Mbanga;

below the average in Loum, Douala and Nyanon in the Littoral region; Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021 (a) Source: NOCC, January 2021

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th January 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include: - Tibati in the Adamawa region; - Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Obala, Yaounde, Ngoro, Yoko and

Eseka in the Centre region;

- Yokadouma, Belabo, Batouri, Garoua-Boulai, Lomie, Moloundou, Ngoyla, Bertoua and Betare-Oya in the East region;

- Yabassi, Loum and Melong in the Littoral region.

b) For Minimum Temperatures -below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ndop, Wum Bali, Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the Nwa, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda and Benakuma in the North West region; same period from 1979 to 2018, that is 17°C in the Far North region; 18°C in -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Kumba, Tiko, the North region; 16.5°C in the Adamawa region; 19.5°C in the Centre Limbe, Bamusso, Mundemba, Mamfe, Fontem, Buea, Muyuka, Idenau; below the historical average in Eyumojock and Nguti in the South West region; region; 21.25°C in the South region; 19.25°C in the East region. 16.33°C in the West region; 15°C in the North West region; 21.32°C in the South West -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Douala, Mouanko, Edea, Dizangue, Manjo Mbanga, Penja, Nkongsamba, Loum, Melong and region and 20.14°C in the Littoral region. For the dekad from 11th to 20th Yabassi in the Littoral region. January 2021 we expect minimum temperatures: - below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yagoua, Makari,

Kousseri, Mora, Maga, Kaikai, Bogo, Maroua and Mokolo; around the average in Mindif and Kaele in the Far North region; - below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Poli, Touboro, Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Pitoa, Garoua and Dembo, in the North region; - below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Tibati and Mbakaou; around the average in Banyo in the Adamawa region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Obala, Monatele, Ayos, Eseka, Yoko, Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Nkoteng, Nanga Eboko; (a) and Bafia in the Centre region; (b) - below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Moloundou, Abong-Mbang; Mindourou, Belabo, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla, Garoua-Boulai, Betare-Oya Yokadouma; around the historical average in and Batouri, in the East region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Zoetele, Campo, Kribi Nyabizan and Ambam; below the historical average in Akom II, Djoum, Lolodorf and Ebolowa, in the South region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bamendjing, Magba, Makam, Foumban, Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga and Bazou in the West region.

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b)

compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same period.

Source: NOCC, January 2021

Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures - around the average recorded from the 1st to 10th January 2021 in Santa, Nwa, recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021, there is a high Bamenda, Ndop, Fundong and Kumbo; above the average in Benakuma and probability during the dekad from 11th to 20th January 2021 of registering Wum in the North West region; average minimum temperatures: - around the average recorded from the 1st to 10th January 2021 in Nguti, st th - below the average recorded from the 1 to 10 January 2021 in Kousseri, Mundemba, Tiko, Kumba, Buea, Muyuka, Bamusso and Idenau; below the Bogo, Waza, Mindif, Maga, Yagoua and Kaele; around the average in average in Eyumojock and Mamfe in the South West region.

Mora, Mokolo and Maroua in the Far North region; - around the average recorded from the 1st to 10th January 2021 in Garoua, Guider, Touboro, Rey Bouba, Lagdo and Tchollire; below the average in Dembo, Pitoa and Poli in the North region; - around the average recorded from the 1st to 10th January 2021 in Banyo, Ngaoundere, Tibati, Tignere, Mbakaou and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - around the average recorded from the 1st to 10th January 2021 in Ngoro, Yoko, Nanga Eboko, Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka Monatele, Obala, Nkoteng, Yaounde, Akonolinga and Mbandjock in the Centre region; - below the average recorded from the 1st to 10th January 2021 in Abong- (b) Mbang, Mindourou, Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Ngoyla and (a) Moloundou;around the average in Betare Oya, Yokadouma, Garoua-Boulai and Lomie in the East region; - around the average recorded from the 1st to 10th January 2021 in Campo, Nyabizan, Ambam, Kribi, Akom II, Zoetele, Sangmelima and Lolodorf; below the average in Ebolowa and Djoum in the South region; - around the average recorded from the 1st to 10th January 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Mbouda, Bamendjing, Magba, Tonga, Bafoussam, Bafang, Foumban, Makam and Foumbot in the West region; - around the average recorded from the 1st to 10th January 2021 in Edea, Dizangue, Loum, Penja, Melong, Douala, Mouanko, Nkongsamba, Manjo and Yabassi in the Littoral region;

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th January 2021 (a).

Source: NOCC, January 2021

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th January 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include:

- Yagoua, Makari, Kousseri, Mora, Maga, KaiKai, Bogo, Maroua and Mokolo in the Far North region; - Poli, Touboro, Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Pitoa, Garoua and Dembo in the North region; - Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Tibati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - Moloundou, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Belabo, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla, Garoua-Boulai, Betare Oya and Yokadouma in

the East region; - Akom II, Djoum, Lolodorf and Ebolowa in the South region;

- Ndop, Wum, Bali, Nwa, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda and Benakuma in the North West region; - Mamfe, Eyumojock and Nguti in the South West region.

IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: d) For the urban planning sector: A high risk of recording cases of: A high risk of registering cases of degradation of edifices and engineering -cases of destruction and degradation of plantations (cocoa, banana plantations, cotton fields, structures, due to heat and the presence of dust particles in the air in most localities sugar cane plantations, etc.) and pastures by bush fires in the five agro-ecological zones; in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; --a decrease in yields of plants dependent on the availability of water resources (cocoa, banana plantations, etc.), due to the increase in maximum temperature and evapotranspiration in the forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions) and in the forest zone e) In the water and energy sector: with mono-modal rainfall (Littoral and South-West regions); A high risk of recording cases of: -a scarcity of water resources for the irrigation of market gardening in the Sudano-Sahelian - decrease in the water levels in dams, due to increase in evapotranspiration, with a zone and the Guinean high savannah zone, due to the effective installation of the dry season. consequent decrease in the production of electricity in hydro-power plants; - scarcity of water resources in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and a progressive drying up b) In the health sector: of river beds due to the severity of the dry season; A risk of recording cases of: -progressive decrease in the water level in water catchment and treatment sites;

• an increase in the number of cases of water-borne diseases (yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, -progressive decrease of the water tables in the five agro-ecological zones; etc.) due to the poor quality of drinking water in the 5 Agro-ecological Zones and particularly in precarious areas and large conurbations; f) In the environment and biodiversity sector: • a multiplication of cases of meningococcal meningitis in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, - A high risk of recording cases of straying and migration of certain wildlife species following the dry and dusty winds; out of Parks, in search of water resources and food, resulting in damage to farmlands, • an increase in cases of conjunctivitis in the five agro-ecological zones due to the combined human life and property in the Far North, North, and Adamawa regions; effect of heat and dust in the air; - A risk of observing morning fog in the five Agro-Ecological zones resulting in cases of • an increase in epidemics and cases of respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, road accidents. asthma attacks, etc.) due to the increase in the number of cold nights and the presence of dust in - a risk of deterioration of plant health in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and in the the air, in the five agro-ecological zones; Guinean High Savannah zone, following the disruption of the flora's vegetative cycle by • an exacerbation of general pathologies, in adults, people suffering from obesity, rheumatism, the severity of the dry season. hypertension, children, women in menopause, people suffering from diabetes, in most localities of the country during this period because of the heat. g) In the defence and security sector: - A risk of recording cases of c) For the Livestock sector - conflicts between cattle rearers and farmers in their search for water sources and A high risk of recording cases of: - cases of epizootic diseases, following the persistence of Harmattan-induced night-time cold food in the Far North, North and Adamawa regions. episodes in many localities in the Far North, North, Adamawa, East, West and North West regions - conflict between populations in search of water resources and food in the Far during this period; North, North and Adamawa regions, due to the progressive drying up of water - degradation and rarefaction of pastures already rendered fragile by floods observed during points; the rainy season in the Far North and North regions. - conflict between populations in search of natural resources, due to the severity of - cases of destruction of pastures by bush fires in the Far North, North and Adamawa regions, the dry season. as well as the northern part of the East region.

st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 1 to 10 January 2021

High Guinean Mono-modal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 16,8 18 16,5 19 19 21 16,8 15 22 19,66

Trend forecasts Success rates of Forecasts (%) 83 80 85,4 86,8 82 83 80,6 86,3 85,4 86,8 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 32,66 33,07 31,05 29,68 29 29 28,4 29 29,02 28,6 Trend forecasts Forecasts success rates (%) 83 83 78 86,3 82 85,1 82 83 83 78 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(mm) 23-53 54-85 86-176 177-179 180-202 203-234 234-241 203-238 233-262 182-204 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 77 91 98 100 100 100 98.6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction ; = Increase

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly in localities experiencing decreased minimum temperatures during this period; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases.

For more information contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected], [email protected] ou [email protected]