22 WebMemo Published by The Heritage Foundation No. 3138 February 8, 2011

Egypt’s Lurks as a Long-Term Threat to Freedom James Phillips

Although ’s widely supported protest coup in 2007 to transform Gaza into a terrorist base, movement was reportedly instigated by secular and remains committed to destroying Israel. opposition activists, the largest and most well-orga- The Muslim Brotherhood’s strategy is to lie low in nized group within Egypt’s diverse coalition of the current crisis and work behind the secular gad- opposition groups remains the Muslim Brother- fly Mohamed ElBaradei, a spokesman for the broad hood, an Islamist movement determined to trans- opposition coalition who is far better known out- form Egypt into an Islamic state that is hostile to side of Egypt than inside the country. The former freedom. The Muslim Brotherhood has joined other U.N. bureaucrat is a lackluster political novice who opposition groups in negotiating with Vice Presi- commands little grassroots support and would be a dent Omar Suleiman over the ground rules for useful figurehead to defuse Western anxiety while establishing a transitional government. the Brotherhood organizes behind the scenes to In facilitating a transition to a more representa- transform the disjointed popular revolt into a draco- tive government, the Obama Administration should nian Islamist revolution. be careful that it does not also inadvertently help The populist revolt now has broad-based popu- the Muslim Brotherhood advance its anti-free- lar support from a wide spectrum of political move- dom agenda. ments, but so did the French, Russian, and Iranian A History of Hatred. The Muslim Brotherhood, revolutions in their early stages before well-orga- founded in 1928, is the Middle East’s oldest and nized revolutionary minorities ruthlessly estab- most influential Islamist movement. Outlawed in lished dominance and erected dictatorships to Egypt since 1954, when it attempted to assassinate enforce their anti-democratic ideologies. former President Gamal Abdel Nasser, the Brother- The Muslim Brotherhood has a clear advantage hood has seen its leaders repeatedly jailed and has over Egypt’s weak and fractured secular opposition been forced to moderate its violent proclivities. parties because it has enjoyed a head start in orga- Although it has changed its tactics, it retains the nizing politically. The Mubarak regime crushed the long-term goal of creating an Islamist state that secular opposition while allowing the Muslim would be an enemy of freedom. An offshoot of the Brotherhood, Egyptian Islamic Jihad, assassinated President Anwar Sadat in 1981, This paper, in its entirety, can be found at: perpetrated a series of terrorist attacks in Egypt in http://report.heritage.org/wm3138 the 1990s, and became part of al-Qaeda. Another Produced by the Douglas and Sarah Allison offshoot, the Palestinian Islamist extremist group Center for Foreign Policy Studies Published by The Heritage Foundation , won elections in Gaza in 2006, staged a 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002–4999 (202) 546-4400 • heritage.org Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. No. 3138 WebMemo February 8, 2011 Brotherhood to operate just enough to scare the acceptable transition arrangement with the opposi- U.S. and other Western nations into buying its line tion coalition. The army has historically played a that only Mubarak stood between the Islamists and vital role as a bulwark against Islamism. power. Brotherhood candidates were allowed to run Washington should also give ElBaradei as wide a as independents in the 2005 elections and won berth as possible. As Director General of the Inter- about 20 percent of the seats in Egypt’s parliament. national Atomic Energy Agency, he revealed himself In contrast, the secular parties are poorly financed to be a prickly apologist for ’s suspect nuclear and badly organized and, because of systematic activities who went out of his way to criticize the government repression, have had little opportunity United States while obsequiously seeking to mollify to build a popular base. Iran. Washington should instead seek to work with If it comes to power, the Muslim Brotherhood and bolster other secular opposition parties and will inevitably be hostile to the values and interests emerging leaders of civil society. The immediate of the United States. It is committed to imposing goal should be to assist the army in brokering a Islamic law (Sharia), which would severely restrict political deal that will enable a smooth transition to the freedoms of Egyptians, particularly women and a sustainable democratic government that will not the Christian minority, which comprises about 10 be subverted by the Muslim Brotherhood. percent of Egypt’s population. It insists that only a To this end, Washington should leverage its $1.5 Muslim male can lead the nation. The Brotherhood’s billion in annual aid to to ensure the emer- Islamist ideology will lead it to renege on Egypt’s gence of a government that respects the freedom current commitment to fight Islamist terrorism and and human rights of its own citizens and complies possibly its nonproliferation obligations. It is sure to with Egypt’s international obligations to fight terror- undermine and eventually abrogate Egypt’s 1979 ism, reject nuclear proliferation, and respect the peace treaty with Israel and work with its junior peace treaty with Israel. partner Hamas to plunge the region into a series of crises and wars that will threaten Egypt, Israel, the Hijack Prevention. Egypt’s Muslim Brother- Palestinians, and Jordan, which also has a peace hood pursues a radical long-term Islamist agenda treaty with Israel. while masking its hostility to freedom and genuine democracy with self-serving tactical rhetorical Ultimately, an Egypt dominated by the Muslim moderation. The Obama Administration should Brotherhood would further destabilize an already patiently seek to advance freedom and stability volatile region and deal a disastrous blow to Ameri- in Egypt through a transition to a more representa- can power and influence in the Middle East. tive government that gives the Muslim Brother- Keep the Muslim Brotherhood at Arm’s hood the smallest possible opportunity to hijack Length. To limit the Muslim Brotherhood’s ability to the reform process. undermine both Egypt’s freedoms and America’s The worst possible outcome of the present crisis interests in the region, the Obama Administration would be to open the door to a takeover by a total- should keep it at arm’s length. Embracing the Broth- itarian Islamist group hostile to the United States erhood would only demoralize pro-Western oppo- while working to replace President Mubarak’s sition movements and lead them to accommodate authoritarian regime. themselves to its rising power. Rather than inserting itself into the delicate negotiations over the transi- —James Phillips is Senior Research Fellow for Mid- tion to a new government, Washington should dle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah Allison allow the Egyptian military establishment—the Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn only institution in Egypt capable of serving as a and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International counterweight to the Islamists—to negotiate an Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.

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