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Tsunami Hazard in the Colombian Pacific Basin

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Tsunami Hazard in the Colombian Pacific Basin EGU Journal Logos (RGB) Open Access Open Access Open Access Advances in Annales Nonlinear Processes Geosciences Geophysicae in Geophysics Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Open Access Open Access Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,Natural 1, 1173–1212, Hazards 2013 Natural Hazards www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/1/1173/2013/ and Earth System doi:10.5194/nhessd-1-1173-2013and Earth System NHESSD Sciences Sciences © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 1, 1173–1212, 2013 Discussions Open Access Open Access Atmospheric Atmospheric This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth Chemistry Chemistry Tsunami hazard in System Sciences (NHESS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in NHESS if available. and Physics and Physics the Colombian Discussions Pacific Basin Open Access Open Access Atmospheric Atmospheric L. J. Otero et al. Measurement Measurement Tsunami hazardTechniques assessment in theTechniques Discussions Open Access southern Colombian Pacific Basin andOpen Access Title Page Biogeosciences Biogeosciences Abstract Introduction a proposal to regenerate a previousDiscussions Conclusions References Open Access barrier island as protection Open Access Climate Climate Tables Figures 1 1 2 L. J. Otero , J. C. Restrepo ,of and the M.Past Gonzalez of the Past Discussions J I 1Physics Department, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia Open Access Open Access 2Environmental Hydraulics Institute IH Cantabria, Santander, Spain Earth System Earth System J I Dynamics Received: 20 March 2013 – Accepted:Dynamics 20 March 2013 – Published: 11 April 2013 Back Close Discussions Correspondence to: L. J. Otero ([email protected]) Full Screen / Esc Open Access Published by Copernicus PublicationsGeoscientific on behalf of the European GeosciencesGeoscientific Union.Open Access Instrumentation Instrumentation Methods and Methods and Printer-friendly Version Data Systems Data Systems Interactive Discussion Discussions Open Access Open Access Geoscientific Geoscientific Model Development Model Development1173 Discussions Open Access Open Access Hydrology and Hydrology and Earth System Earth System Sciences Sciences Discussions Open Access Open Access Ocean Science Ocean Science Discussions Open Access Open Access Solid Earth Solid Earth Discussions Open Access Open Access The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract NHESSD In this study, the tsunami hazard posed to 120 000 inhabitants of Tumaco (Colombia) is assessed, and an evaluation and analysis of regenerating the previous El Guano 1, 1173–1212, 2013 Island for tsunami protection is conducted. El Guano Island was a sandy barrier island 5 in front of the city of Tumaco until its disappearance during the tsunami of 1979; the is- Tsunami hazard in land is believed to have played a protective role, substantially reducing the scale of the the Colombian disaster. The analysis is conducted by identifying seismotectonic parameters and focal Pacific Basin mechanisms of tsunami generation in the area, determining seven potential generation sources, applying a numerical model for tsunami generation and propagation, and eval- L. J. Otero et al. 10 uating the effect of tsunamis on Tumaco. The results show that in the current situation, this area is vulnerable to impact and flooding by tsunamis originating nearby. El Guano Island was found to markedly reduce flood levels and the energy flux of tsunami waves Title Page in Tumaco during the 1979 tsunami. To reduce the risk of flooding due to tsunamis, the Abstract Introduction regeneration and morphological modification of El Guano Island would help to protect 15 Tumaco. Conclusions References Tables Figures 1 Introduction J I When the source of an earthquake is entirely or partly under the sea, there is a risk of generating high-energy tidal waves of long period, which travel long distances at high J I speeds and, in some cases, cause severe damage to lives and property in coastal ar- Back Close 20 eas. These waves are known as tsunamis, but fortunately, not all seismic movements in the sea generate tsunamis. The occurrence of a tsunami depends on the parame- Full Screen / Esc ters associated to the earthquake source, such as the type of tectonic shift (generally normal or reverse fault vertical movement of the seabed), the magnitude of the earth- Printer-friendly Version quake (Ms > 5 on the Richter scale), the focal depth (df < 50 km), and the source length Interactive Discussion 25 (L > 100 km) (Iida, 1970; Wiegel, 1970). 1174 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Tsunamis are phenomena that occur infrequently but pose a greater hazard than earthquakes, hurricanes, and tornadoes (Synolakis and Bernard, 2006; Birkmann NHESSD et al., 2010). In the last 100 yr, there has been an average of 10 tsunami events per 1, 1173–1212, 2013 year (η < 1 m), one event per year of magnitude 1 < η < 5 m, and one event every 17 yr 5 of magnitude η > 5 m, all of which since 1850 have caused the loss of over 420 000 lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructure around the world (Bernard et al., Tsunami hazard in 2006). On 26 December 2004, in the coastal region of Indonesia, seabed movement the Colombian generated a tsunami that reached more than 30 m in wave height along the adjacent Pacific Basin coastal area and claimed the lives of more than 168 000 people (Bernard et al., 2006). L. J. Otero et al. 10 Just two hours after it was generated, this same event had already claimed the lives of an additional 63 000 people in Thailand, Sri Lanka, and India. There was another recent event on 11 March 2011, when a massive earthquake occurred in the Pacific off Title Page the coast of Tohoku, Japan. This earthquake and the resulting tsunami caused exten- sive damage in eastern Japan. The earthquake was of high magnitude (Mw = 9.0), the Abstract Introduction 15 highest recorded in Japan. The tsunami was also historic in terms of its 39 m height and large affected area. Approximately 24 000 people were reported dead or missing Conclusions References (Mimura et al., 2011; Suppasri et al., 2012). Tables Figures The region of the North Andes block, specifically the seismic belt located off the Pacific coast of southern Colombia and northern Ecuador, is characterised by intense J I 20 seismic activity (Gutsher et al., 1999; Collot et al., 2004). In this area during the last century, there were six major earthquakes with Mw > 7.7. The largest (Mw > 8.6), which J I occurred on 31 January 1906, had an estimated rupture length of 500 km and was par- Back Close tially reactivated from south to north in the events of 14 May 1942 (Ms > 7.9), 19 Jan- uary 1958 (Ms > 7.8) and 12 December 1979 (Ms > 7.7) (Mendoza and Dewey, 1984; Full Screen / Esc 25 Beck and Ruff, 1984). These earthquakes were associated with tsunami generation, causing severe damage and the loss of human lives along the Colombian–Ecuadorian Printer-friendly Version Pacific coast. The 1979 event affected a significant number of inhabitants in Tumaco (Fig. 1). The human and material damage caused by the 1979 earthquake-tsunami Interactive Discussion along the southern coast of Colombia from Tumaco to Guapi was considerable. In the 1175 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | department of Narino˜ alone, there were nearly 452 dead and 1011 injured, with approx- imately 3080 homes destroyed and more than 2100 damaged. Part of the Colombian NHESSD coastline was changed dramatically by this tsunami. For example, the coastal town 1, 1173–1212, 2013 of San Juan located 60 km north of Tumaco was completely destroyed. The tsunami 5 swept over the barrier island, destroying all the buildings and killing at least 220 people, mostly children. In the northwestern area of Tumaco, flooding was localised, and the Tsunami hazard in barrier island of El Guano disappeared completely (Ram´ırez and Gover, 1980). the Colombian Natural hazards such as those caused by tsunamis are impossible to prevent; there- Pacific Basin fore, it is understandable that scientific and technical research is focused on study- L. J. Otero et al. 10 ing vulnerability to these hazards and prevention-mitigation techniques to reduce that vulnerability, as the end objective is risk reduction. Accordingly, any preventive action taken prior, during, or after the occurrence of a destructive natural phenomenon in an Title Page attempt to reduce its destructive consequences is called mitigation. Examples of mit- igating actions are (1) the implementation of tsunami warning systems, (2) protective Abstract Introduction 15 measures, and (3) adaptation measures. Following the 1979 tsunami, efforts have focused on implementing solutions to min- Conclusions References imise the risks to which the 120 000 inhabitants in the town of Tumaco are exposed. Tables Figures However, despite these efforts, the risks remain high because much of the population lives in homes on the water built haphazardly without regard to earthquake-resistant J I 20 standards (Fig. 1). Efforts have been directed towards two goals: (1) the development of an early warning system and (2) community training to understand the hazard and J I the need to move to safe areas in the city in the case of a tsunami warning. Back Close Regarding the development of a tsunami warning system, the Tsunami Warning Centre (CAT by its initials in Spanish) has been in
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