Regional Study on the Quality of Basic Education Brookings Institute, Washington D.C

Facing Forward: Schooling for Learning in Africa

Regional Study on the Quality of Basic Education Brookings Institute, Washington D.C. 19 April 2018 Purpose and scope of the study

Scope • All sub-Saharan African countries have committed to Sustainable Development Goal 4 • Prioritize basic education of quality (grades 1-9)

Focus • Science: “What works” • Service delivery: “How to implement” • Countries can learn from each other • Should develop the culture of continuous improvements

Audience • Ministries of Finance; Ministries of Education • Development partners What can we learn from this study?

Compares countries by education progress and learning

Four focus areas: student progression, teachers, budgets, capacity gaps

What are the implications for the region? Real GDP per capita and Primary-School Enrollment in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960–2014 US$ at 2010 Millions prices of students 1700 160 1st Oil GDP pc Price Shock Jomtien at 1974 level 140

1600 TotalEnrollment Primary In

120 1500 100 1400 80 1300

60 Real GDP per Real capita 1200 40

1100 20

1000 0 Four Country Groups: Geographical spread

Country Groupings Established Emerged Emerging Delayed

Countries

Primary GER 110 117 108 81

Lower Secondary 87 55 55 42 GER Four groups of countries based on progress in primary education

Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Established Emerged Emerging Delayed 160

140

120 GER at 100% 100

80 Percentage Percentage 60

Mali Mali

Togo

Chad

Niger

Benin

Kenya

Sudan Sudan

Ghana

Gabon Gabon

Eritrea

Liberia

Angola

Guinea

Nigeria Nigeria

Zambia

Malawi

Uganda

Senegal Senegal

Burundi

Lesotho Lesotho Burundi

Rwanda

Ethiopia

Namibia Namibia

Tanzania Tanzania

Comoros Comoros

Mauritius Mauritius

Botswana Botswana

Swaziland

Cameroon

Zimbabwe Zimbabwe Cameroon

Mauritania Mauritania

Cabo Verde Verde Cabo Cabo

Congo, Rep. Rep. Congo, Congo,

Madagascar Madagascar

South Africa South

Gambia, The The Gambia, Gambia,

Côte d'Ivoire Côte

Burkina Faso Faso Burkina Burkina

Mozambique

Guinea-Bissau Guinea-Bissau

Congo, Dem. Rep. Dem. Rep. Dem.Congo, Congo,

Equatorial Guinea Guinea Equatorial Equatorial

Out of school children Gross Enrollment Ratio 2013

São Tomé and Principe and Tomé São

Central African Republic African Central Central African Republic African Central Progress towards Lower secondary education (GER)

120 2000 Most Recent Year GER 100% 120100 2000 Most Recent Year GER 100% 10080

80 60

60 40

40 20 20 0

Mali

Togo

Chad

Niger

Benin

Ghana

Guinea

Nigeria

Zambia

Malawi

Uganda

Gambia

Senegal

Burundi

Lesotho

Ethiopia

Namibia

Tanzania

Mali

Comoros

Togo

Chad

Mauritius

Botswana

Niger

Swaziland

Benin

Cameroon

Zimbabwe

Eq. Guinea Eq.

Ghana

Mauritania

Guinea

Nigeria

Cabo Verde Cabo

Zambia

Malawi

Congo, Rep. Congo,

Madagascar

Uganda

South Africa South

Gambia

Senegal

Guinea-…

Burundi

Lesotho

Ethiopia

Côte d'Ivoire Côte

Burkina Faso Burkina

Namibia

Mozambique

Tanzania

Comoros

Mauritius

Guinea-Bissau

Botswana

Swaziland

Cameroon

Zimbabwe

Eq. Guinea Eq.

Mauritania

Cabo Verde Cabo

Congo, Rep. Congo,

Madagascar

South Africa South

Côte d'Ivoire Côte Burkina Faso Burkina Group 1 Group 2 Mozambique Group 3 Group 4 Established Emerged Emerging Delayed Learning assessments: Sources of data and country coverage Few students reach minimum proficiency levels in reading or math Countries in Group 1 and Burundi perform better (each dot represents an international or regional assessment in Reading, Math, and Science from early grade to lower secondary, and adult literacy)

>=75%>=75%

5050 -74%--74%

2525- 49%--49%

Percentage of test takers Percentagetakers testof

Percentage of test takers Percentagetakers testof Percentage of test takers Percentagetakers testof

Percentage of test takers takers of test Percentage <25%<25%

reachingminimumproficiency

reaching reaching minimum proficiency

…

… …

…

… …

…

… …

…

… …

…

Mali

Côte Côte

Togo

Côte Côte

Togo

Chad

Niger

Benin

South

Benin

South

Kenya

South

Kenya

Ghana

Congo, Congo,

Nigeria

Zambia

Malawi

Zambia

Malawi

Zimbab

Mozam

Nigeria

Zambia

Malawi

Zambia

Malawi

Zimbab

Mozam

Burkina Burkina

Uganda

Burkina Burkina

Zimbab

Mozam

Zimbab

Mozam

Senegal

Uganda

Senegal

Malawi Zambia

Burkina Burkina

Camero

Uganda

Camero

Senegal

Lesotho Burundi

Rwanda

Lesotho Burundi

Camero

Rwanda

Uganda

Senegal

Lesotho Burundi

Rwanda

Ethiopia

Seychell

Ethiopia

Seychell

Burundi

Ethiopia

Namibia

Seychell

Namibia

Lesotho

Namibia

Rwanda

Tanzania

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Namibia

Tanzania

Mauritius

Botswana

Swaziland

Botswana

Swaziland

Mauritius

Swaziland

Botswana

Swaziland

Seychelles

Zimbabwe

Cameroon

Congo, Rep. Congo,

South Africa

Burkina Burkina Faso

Côte Côte d'Ivoire Mozambique

Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 At the end of 4th grade, fewer than 30 percent of children can read a paragraph (except Tanzanian children in Kiswahili)

100

60 Percentage Percentage 40

0 English Kiswahili Kenya Tanzania (2014 ) Togo Uganda Mozambique Nigeria Senegal Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4

Pupil can read a letter (%) Pupil can read a word (%) Pupil can read a sentence (%) Pupil can read paragraph (%) Equity is a major issue but teachers and schools can affect learning

Some groups of children do Teachers, classroom and school systematically worse resources make a difference

• Poor children • Structured pedagogy (tightly linked curriculum, teacher training, instructional materials, assessment) • Rural children • Teacher content knowledge • Children who do not speak language of instruction • Instructional time

• Gender effect varies by country • Infrastructure, classroom and school pedagogical resources EquityLanguage is a used majorat issue home but and teachers school: Wideand schools gaps in canlearningaffect in learning grade 2

PASEC Grade 2: Average scores and score gap between students instructed in the home language and in another language

Mathematics Reading

Burundi 533 72 606 Burundi 563 66 629

Senegal 509 67 576 Senegal 481 98 579

Congo, Rep. 515 60 574 Congo, Rep. 481 95 577

Togo 457 82 539 Togo 456 89 545

Chad 468 67 535 Chad 466 46 512

Cameroon 458 73 531 Cameroon 456 79 535

Niger 426 103 528 Niger 423 106 529

Burkina Faso 497 24 521 Burkina Faso 494 52 546

Benin 440 44 483 Benin 446 36 481

Côte d'Ivoire 444 38 482 Côte d'Ivoire 453 54 507

350 500 650 350 500 650

Never use LOI at home Gap Size Always/Sometimes use LOI at home Never use LOI at home Gap Size Always/Sometimes use LOI at home Some interventions boost learning in SSA and other low- and middle- income countries

0.28 Structured pedagogy 0.18 0.175 Extra time 0.14 0.13 School feeding 0.1 0.13 Teacher hiring 0.08 0.12 Multi-level 0.1 0.11 Public-private partnerships SSA countries 0.05 0.1 Merit scholarship All countries 0.08 0.06 Community-based monitoring 0.11 0.06 Cash transfers 0.005 0.05 Tracking 0.07 0.02 Construction of new schools 0.11 0.005 Teacher incentives 0.04 -0.02 Materials to schools -0.01 -0.05 School-based management 0 -0.09 School based health-malaria 0.1 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 Four areas of focus in the study

1. Student progression from early grades to end of lower secondary, with learning

2. Teacher management and support

3. Using the budget to improve quality

4. Closing the capacity gap 1. Student progression with learning

Unblock early grade “traffic jam”

Student progression: early More lower grades through secondary schools basic education

Target poor, female, rural students Early Grade “Traffic Jam” : Three Factors Poor Learning Environment in Early Grades • Large classes (>80) • Different ages • Classes held outside Student Flow • Few learning materials • Teachers need training to • Children enter at different teach reading, numeracy CHILDREN ages STUCK • Attend irregularly • Repeat years IN EARLY • Learn little GRADES • Children don’t understand Language of Instruction • Teachers are not familiar with language

Language Policy Survival rates through grade 9

100 100 100 97 Ghana, 90 91 DRC, 83 Nigeria, 83 80 80 Senegal, 82 72 Kenya, 80 68 CIV, 76 60 56 Ethiopia, 57 Mozambique, 49

Burkina, 46 Survival Rate Survival 40 Rwanda, 38 36 Uganda, 31

20 Malawi, 16

0 Grade1 Grade2 Grade3 Grade4 Grade5 Grade6 Grade7 Grade8 Grade9 Expand access to lower secondary, address demand constraints

• Plan for increase: Will double in 10 years • Standard school facility package • Choice between boarding schools versus day schools: • Boarding schools are expensive and not effective • Address inequality in resources for day schools • Use ICT, especially to address shortages of math/science teachers, materials, labs • Eliminate exams between primary and lower secondary • Remove fees, barriers for girls, nomadic children, etc. 2. Teachers: Improve management and support

Improve knowledge and practice

Strengthen school leadership Improve teacher Deploy correctly/ management and ensure presence support

Minimum learning conditions in schools

Accountability and incentives “Leakages” in Teacher Management at Multiple Points

•Teaching attracts the more educated Teacher recruitment • But pre-service preparation is inadequate • And teacher knowledge remains modest •Allocations vary widely across schools Teacher •Control of allocations and transfers is weak deployment •Curriculum specialization worsens problems •Teachers are absent from school and from the classroom (“orphaned” Teacher classrooms) absenteeism •Problems stem from issues with leave policy and weak school level management •Teachers lack ongoing support to improve Teaching and teaching learning in the classroom •Material and other conditions are unconducive Teacher knowledge lags in the more advanced tasks

SDI surveys 2012–2016, grade 4

% correct on mathematics % correct on language Adding Mathematic double Subtracting Language Composition (average digit double Comparing (average score) Grammar task task core) numbers digits fractions

Kenya 63 92 49 Kenya 77 98 86 40

Group 1 Group Group1

Uganda 54 89 37 Uganda 58 96 79 21

Togo 50 74 26 Togo 33 79 65 13

Group 2 Group Group 2 Group

Tanzania 42 73 22 Tanzania 65 97 86 50

Mozambique 34 83 10 Mozambique 33 87 65 17 Group 3 Group Nigeria 49 64 24 3 Group Nigeria 42 89 70 16

21 Large shares of teachers are absent—not just from school but especially from class

0.15 1 Kenya 0.43

0.15 Tanzania 0.47

0.21 2 Togo 0.36

0.24 Uganda 0.53

0.05 Ethiopia 0.22

0.35

Madagascar 0.42 3 0.43 Mozambique 0.55

0.14 Nigeria 0.19

0.18 4 Senegal 0.29 School Class

Source: Service Delivery Indicators Surveys of primary schools, 2013-14, based on enumerators’ school visit reports 3. Use the budget to improve quality

Spend incremental resources on learning Reduce disparities in standards of provision Use the budget to improve quality Improve the efficiency of public spending Project multi-year resource requirements More resources, better utilization

NEEDS TO ADDITIONAL • $ 208 per student in primary COME FROM RESOURCES ARE • Enrollments in lower secondary DOMESTIC REQUIRED will double in 10 years REVENUES

MOVE TO 80% SALARIES • 95% on teachers salaries WHAT YOU SPEND • 5% on everything else 20% ON BOOKS, ON IS IMPORTANT TRAINING, ETC. • Huge disparities MINIMUM STANDARDS

IMPROVE BUDGET • Inability to spend on non-salary PLANNING, items BUDGET SPENDING, AND • Weak procurement; financial CAPACITY IS EXECUTION management processes CRITICAL Predictability of Direct Budget Support by country grouping

D D+ C C+ B B+ A Kenya (2012) Mauritius (2011) South Africa (2014) Botswana (2013) Ghana (2013)

Group 1 Group Lesotho (2012) Seychelles (2011) Cabo Verde (2016) D/D+ Comoros (2016) Togo (2016) Uganda (2012) Rwanda (2010) C/C+ Group 2 Group Tanzania (2013)

Benin (2014) B/B+ Guinea-Bissau (2014) Mauritania (2014) Sierra Leone (2010) A Zambia (2013) Group 3 Group Burundi (2012) Mozambique (2015)

Burkina Faso (2014) Central African Republic (2010) Liberia (2016) Niger (2017) Group 4 Group Senegal (2011) Mali (2016) 4. Address capacity gaps in Ministries of Education Alternative slide

Knowledge of “what to do” and increased financial resources are not enough From “Science to Service Delivery” – Closing the capacity gap

The challenge is implementation and specific capacities are required

26 Bridging the implementation gap – connecting to schools/teachers Unions Schools Parents Ministry of Elected Finance Officials

Coordination Negotiation Capacities Policy Planning Decentralized/ Data Ministry of Capacity Deconcentrated Education Units Accountability Incentives

Technical Technical Institutions Capacity “Market Failure” in Capacity Building

Demand Supply

•Longer term capacity needs fail to be • Usually from donors expressed • Short term/project based Ministry of Finance unwilling to borrow • Related to planning rather than • Short electoral cycles •Longer term capacity building required implementation for: • Or focused on implementation of • Specialized technical skills project • Soft areas- negotiation, coordination • Training of few staff •Needs “learning by doing” • Equipment, etc. • International technical assistance Looking ahead: key challenges

Diverging • Economic growth across the region is highly heterogeneous Economic Performance • Some countries have more diversified economic structures

Many countries in educational Groups 3 and 4 have TFR above 5 • A vast population growth Larger cohorts is expected: most African Group 1 of school-age countries are at the “pre- Group 2 demographic dividend” Group 3 children stage, with total fertility rates (TFRs) of 4 or more. Group 4 TFR <5 TFR 5+

• Need to expand while A sustained projected expansion in enrollment sustaining past learning Primary Lower Secondary Managing 268 improvements and 108 Expansion with absorbing students from 178 Quality disadvantage social 53 backgrounds. 2015 2030 2015 2030 Thank You

Suggested citation:

Bashir, Sajitha, Marlaine Lockheed, Elizabeth Ninan, and Jee-Peng Tan. Forthcoming.

Facing Forward: Schooling for Learning in Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank Annexes – Data Sources Data Sources: Chapter 1, Country Groupings and Challenges

ACLED, Armed UIS.Stat Pole de Household WPP 2015 Ethnologue Conflict database Dakar Surveys WDI (WB) Location and (UN DESA) (SIL) Event Data, (UNESCO) (IIEP) (WB) version 6

GDP, Growth Country Linguistic groupings, of GDP Population Diversity Number of GERs, (40 Projections Index 2015 conflicts (48 Enrollment countries) (48 (47 countries) (48 Country Out of countries) countries) countries) groupings, School Gini Index Enrollment, Rates GERs, (40 (48 (34 countries) ISCED countries) Mappings of countries) Population Poverty Growth Length Cycles 7 countries 9 countries Headcount Rates (48 (48 countries) countries) (40 countries)

32 Data Sources: Chapter 2, Learning

PISA TIMSS PIRLS PASEC SACMEQ SDI EGRA STEP

Reading Math Reading Reading Reading Reading Math Reading Reading Science Math Math Math Literacy Science

Botswana 10 Botswana 16 Ghana Francopho Kenya Mauritius South education 7 countries 9 countries ne Ghana South Africa systems Africa countries

33 International and regional learning assessments in SSA (96)

Assess- Grades Minimum Countries Subjects Examples of Minimum Proficiency ment /Ages Threshold

Reading Reading: Locates and recognizes main idea in text, interprets and integrates parts of text. Level 2 and PISA+ Age 15 Mauritius Math Math: Solves problems using whole numbers. above Science Science: Makes literal interpretations of the results of scientific inquiry.

Botswana Math Low Math: Some knowledge of whole numbers and decimals. , Ghana, International TIMSS 8 South Benchmark Science: Some basic knowledge of biology, chemistry, physics, and earth science. Science Africa and above Interprets simple pictorial diagrams and applies basic knowledge to practical situations.

10 Reading Level 3 Reading (grade 6): Combines, extracts and locates implicit information. PASEC Franco- 2, 6 phone Math Level 2 Math (grade 6): Answers brief arithmetic, measurement and geometry questions. countries Reading: Reads on or reads back in order to link and interpret information located in various 16 Reading Level 4 SACMEQ part of the text. 6 education Math: Translates verbal or graphic information into simple arithmetic operations. systems Math Level 4 Uses multiple different arithmetic operations on whole numbers, fractions and/or decimals. SDI 7 Reading Reading: Reads a sentence aloud 4 -- countries Math Math: Solves a math story 9 EGRA 2, 3 Reading -- Oral reading: any score above zero countries Data Sources: Chapter 3, Student Progression

UIS.Stat database Household Other sources (UNESCO) Surveys (WB)

Language Policies and Implementation: Bulge Analysis EGRA reports , UNICEF, UNESCO (27 (all countries): Over-age enrollment in grade 1 countries) current, 103 countries Repetition rates by grade 1 National Examinations: UIS, WB, ESP trend, 84 countries documents, national documents, WES, Nuffic GERs by area, wealth (43 countries) Distance to School Enrollment by grade Class size, SDI (Malawi) GERs in grade 1, Gender Parity by area

GIR in grade 1 Survival Rates grades 1-9 Internet and Mobile Users GER in Pre-School Drop-out reasons (Regional Averages)

(Population projections by age, UN (34 countries) ICT use: UIS Communication and Information DESA) database , InfoDeb, WB, MoE (26 countries)

35 Data Sources: Chapter 4, Teachers

Household / UIS.Stat PASEC (2014) Labor Other database EMIS data SDI (WB) and SACMEQ Surveys sources (UNESCO) (2007) (WB)

# of teachers, Total (P=38, S=32 countries) Teachers and Teacher knowledge Non-permanent (P=29 comparator Teacher countries) Teacher (Only SACMEQ groups: deployment 2007, 11 countries) absenteeism Class Size (25 educational (Ghana, Cote Pre-Service Teacher countries), Textbooks attainment, d'Ivoire) (9 countries) Training (25 STEP (Ghana per pupil (32 countries) and Kenya) countries) wages, Randomness in Teacher Pedagogy Prof. Development TIMSS and Toilets, potable water hours of work, teacher (15 countries) and electricity in allocation Knowledge, second job, In-service Training TED-S primary schools Teaching (P=28 (10 countries) (Botswana) (33 countries) hourly and Practices annual pay countries, Essential conditions ( 6-7countries) (23-25 countries) PTR (P=43 countries, (13-16 S=8 countries) S= 39 countries) countries)

36 Data Sources: Chapter 5, Budget and Finance

Public Expenditure UNESCO’s Global and Financial UIS.Stat database OECD-DAC and Education Sector Monitoring Accountability WB PERs (UNESCO) various GMRs Plans Reports (GMRs) (PEFA, 2011 Framework)

Total government expenditure (TGE) (39 countries)

Assessment of Various issues Plans appraised Household budgetary covered in this Government Donor aid for for the Global spending on processes chapter education education Partnership for expenditure (GEE) education (38 countries in (10 countries, (33 countries) (42 countries) Education (GPE) (18 countries) the 2010-2016 across several (20 countries) period) years) Share of public spending by level of education (26 countries, 6-year primary cycles)

37 Data Sources: Chapter 6, Capacity Gap

UIS.Stat database World Bank Internal (UNESCO) Survey

Selected indicators in three domains: enrollment, teachers and spending Data collected through Coverage: at least one year in questionnaires addressed 2000-04, 2005-09, and 2010-15 to Bank staff periods working in different Number of countries with valid data Sub-Saharan African countries. increases over time Information available on 26 countries

38 Data Sources: Chapter 8, Coda

Enrollment WPP 2017 World Bank Projections (UN DESA)

Prepared for Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and Senegal

Inputs: Robustness of economic Population Projections: Total Fertility Rates, TFR performance, 1995–2016 WPP 2012 (46 countries) Patterns of Student Flows: (45 countries) Household Surveys Student Teacher Ratios (STRs): UIS.Stat database (UNESCO)