The Professor ’s Report 1

Mr. Justin J McCollum (BS, MS Physics) Lab Physics Coordinator Dept. of Physics Lamar University

Welcome to the comet report which is a monthly article on the observations of by the community and comet hunters from around the world! This article is dedicated to the latest reports of available comets for observations, current state of those comets, (PanSTARRS) C/2011 L4 future predictions, & projections for 9 October 2012 observations in comet astronomy! © Erik Bryssinck, BRIXIIS Observatory – Kruibeke, Belgium Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 2 The Current Status of the Predominant Comets for Jan/Feb 2013!

Comets Designation Orbital Magnitude Trend Observation Constellations Visibility Period (IAU – MPC) Status Visual (Range in (Night Sky Location) (alt. ≥ 30˚) Lat.) All times CDT LEMMON C/2012 F6 C 7.3* Brightening 30˚N - 90˚S Moving S thru Centaurus until 16 Jan Visible for lower (11 Jan) Rapidly and then across Crux until 22 Jan & moves latitudes of N across Octans thru Mid February hemisphere until early Feb! PanSTARRS C/2011 L4 C 8.6* Bright and N/A Moving ESE thru Corona Australis Lost in the (13 Jan) Steady until 31 Jan & along the outer boundaries of Sagittarius & Daytime Telescopium: 31 Jan – 9 Feb Across the S frontier of Microscopium: Glare! 10 – 16 Feb Pons – Gambart 273P/2012 V4 P 8.6* Brightening 85˚N - 20˚S Moving NNW from Scutum to Serpens 15˚≥ alt. ≥ 0˚ – SWAN (C/1827 M1) (8 Dec) Gradually Cauda and the NE region of Ophiuchus (5:30 – 6:30) AM LINEAR C/2011 F1 C 9.0* Somewhat N/A Moving ESE across the S region of Lost in the (4 Nov) Bright, but Sagittarius thru Mid Feb! possibly Daytime Steady Glare! LINEAR C/2012 K5 C 9.9* Fading 70˚N - 60˚S Progressing SSW thru the W region of the alt. ≥ 30˚ (12 Jan) Rapidly ‘Winter Hexagon’ from Taurus to Orion (6:30 PM – 1:00 AM) and then well into Eridanus thru mid 30˚≥ alt. ≥ 0˚ March! (1:00 – 3:00) AM McNaught – 262P/2012 K7 C 10.8* Fading 65˚N - 60˚S Moving E thru Cetus until Early Feb alt. ≥ 30˚ Russell (3 Jan) Noticeably and then thru the N region of Eridanus (6:30 – 9:15) PM until Late March 30˚ ≥ alt. ≥ 0˚ (9:15 – 11:30) PM

*Visual Magnitude determined from last known field observation report!

Comets with visual magnitudes fainter than 12 , more suitable for observing in the Southern hemisphere , or the tropics are not reported on this list! Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 3 The Current Status of the Predominant Comets for Jan/Feb 2013! (Continued)

Comets Designation Orbital Magnitude Trend Observation Constellations Visibility Period (IAU – MPC) Status Visual (Range in (Night Sky Location) (alt. ≥ 30˚) Lat.) All times CDT

Schwasswann – 29P P 11.0* Very Diffuse 50˚N - 50˚S Undergoing another ‘tight retrograde’ loop 0˚≤ alt. ≤ 30˚ Wachmann 1 (8 Jan) and Fading between & Hydra and lasting thru (1:45 – 4:45) AM Gradually mid September 2013! alt. ≥ 30˚ (4:45 – 6:30) AM Hergenrother 168P P 11.3* Fading and 90˚N - 25˚S Moving E thru the E region of alt. ≥ 30˚ (8 Dec) Diffusing Andromeda until Early Feb and then (6:30 – 11:20) PM Rapidly across the central region of Perseus thru 30˚≥ alt. ≥ 0˚ late March! (11:20 PM – 2:15 AM) McNaught C/2011 R1 C 11.4* Bright and 35˚N - 55˚S Undergoing a slight reversal of motion 0˚ ≤ alt. ≤ 30˚ (15 Oct) Steady from NNE to NNW moving thru the W (4:00 - 6:30) AM central region of Scorpius LINEAR C/2012 L2 C 11.8* Slight 90˚N - 15˚S Progression SE thru the central region of alt. ≥ 30˚ (3 Jan) Bright, but Cassiopeia until the end of Jan & into the E (6:30 – 11:00) PM Fading region of Andromeda 30˚≥ alt. ≥ 0˚ (11:00 PM – 6:30 AM)

Bressi C/2012 T5 C 11.9* Still Visible, 40˚N - 60˚S Progressing SW from Cetus until Mid 30˚ ≥ alt. ≥ 0˚ (11 Jan) but Jan and across the N & W regions of (6:30 – 10:00) PM Diffusing Sculptor until Mid Feb Slowly

*Visual Magnitude determined from last known field observation report! Note: Range of Latitudes for availability for visible & photographic observations depend solely on available times during astronomical beginning and end!

Comets with visual magnitudes fainter than 12 , more suitable for observing in the Southern hemisphere , or the tropics are not reported on this list! Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 4 Ephemeris Data Terminology

Ephemeris Term Definition (plus additional comments)

Date Month and Year using the standard Gregorian calendar.

TT Terrestrial Time (Day of the Month) as a substitute for the astronomical Julian date.

RA (2000) Right Ascension based on the J2000 (longitudinal coordinate for the celestial sky) measured in hours, minutes, and seconds.

Dec (2000) Declination based on the Epoch J2000 (latitudinal coordinate for the night sky) measured in degrees, arcminutes, and arcseconds.

Delta The distance from Earth measured in AUs (1 AU = 1 = 92 955 807 mi = 149 597 871 km as the mean distance between the Earth and ).

R The solar distance measured in AUs (the distance between the comet or comet – like body and the Sun)!

Elongation Solar which is the angle of separation between the observed object and the Sun as measured across the night sky as measured in degrees. {El. ( ˚ )}

Phase Phase angle between the Sun, the celestial object, and the observer on the surface of the Earth. Also known as the Sun – Object – Observer angle. (Ph.)

M1 M1: The visual magnitude of the celestial object as observed on the surface of the Earth at sea level. (Note M1 values predicted by the can differ from actual visual reports obtain in the field!)

M2 The nuclear magnitude of the Comet which is also the visual magnitude of the false nucleus. (Rarely shown on a Comet’s ephemeris data spreadsheet unless all values show a visual brightness value above 19th magnitude!)

“/min The progression or motion across the sky as measured in arcseconds per minute.

P.A. Position angle while undergoing motion in the celestial sky. (P.A. is the same method applied to binary stars with starts at N goes counterclockwise in an easterly direction!)

Moon Phase A Numerical value for designating the phases of the Moon on a scale of (0.00 – 1.00): A New Moon = 0.00, Waxing or Waning Crescent = (0.01 - 0.49), Half Moon (1st or Last Quarter = 0.50), Waxing or Waning Gibbous = (0.50 – 0.99), & Full Moon = 1.00

Foreshortening The appearance of the comet’s tail due to the geometric orientation between the Earth and a Comet. (% Fore.) (100% means the comet’s tail is parallel with the face of the Earth where as 0% means the tail is exactly perpendicular with respect to the face of the Earth!)

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 5

All observations of comets are broken down into three factors: estimating Degree of Condensation (DC) magnitudes for light curves to predict future brightness, observations, and observations that concern with a comet’s tail(s). For the coma or a comet’s head there two characteristic features that are important for study: Degree of condensation (DC) and coma size measured in arcminutes. The classification system for determining the DC is based on a positive integer system from 0 to 9 as shown below.

DC value Definition to numerical DC designation

0 Diffuse coma of uniform brightness

1 Diffuse coma with slight brightening towards center

2 Diffuse coma with definite brightening towards center

3 Centre of coma much brighter than edges, though still diffuse

4 Diffuse condensation at centre of coma

5 Condensation appears as a diffuse spot at centre of coma – described as moderately condensed 6 Condensation appears as a bright diffuse spot at centre of coma

7 Condensation appears like a star that cannot be focused – described as strongly condensed

8 Coma virtually invisible

9 Stellar or disk like in appearance

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 6 A Synopsis of the Predominant Comets for Winter 2013! This winter season there a variety of comets to observe in the skies for the new year with about eleven such comets ranging in recorded apparent magnitudes from 7 – 12! Two of these comets C/2011 L4 (PanSTARRS) and 273P/Pons – Gambart are lost in the daytime glare of the Sun for the next couple of months and one C/2012 F6 (LEMMON) is only visible to observers in the Northern hemisphere at latitudes below 30˚ N only until early Feb and will not reappear until it is in the constellations of the Autumnal sky around May. Among these comets the only one of valuable observations thru the end of February is C/2012 K5 (LINEAR) which is rapidly receding away from both the Sun and inner solar system. C/2012 K5 is currently in a SSW track thru the constellations between Orion and Taurus, but will soon slow down significantly as it moves into the northern region of Eridanus and undergoes a partial retrograde effect which will have it turn SE by the beginning of late February and then move towards the rabbit (Lepus) around the evening of 16/17 April 2012. The comet is already close to 10th magnitude, so it will become even more challenging to observe the constellations set even earlier in the western skies upon the ever approaching glow of the Spring evenings as daylight hours will only increase with the passing of the Winter Solstice. The other possible comet to observe will be C/2012 L6 (LEMMON) which will appear once again in the skies of the northern hemisphere as it moves northward along the western boundaries of Pisces with Pegasus and then thru the southern region of Andromeda will staying just east of the ‘Great Square’ during the evenings of (9 – 25) May 2013! This particular comet of the LEMMON survey has the potential of becoming a bright comet with the peak possibly approaching 2.0 by ‘April Fool’s Day’ 2013 as it moves thru Aquarius . Be prepared to get up very early in the morning as this comet will not be in a prime position for visual observation until about 4 – 5 am on May morning before sunrise. It will be around this time that the constellations of the late Summer/Early Autumn return to the night skies! Stay tuned for further updates on comet C/2012 F6 (LEMMON) as Winter recedes and the coming of Spring will make this a possible prime comet for those more enduring astronomers and comet hunters to catch before dawn!

C/2011 L4 (PanSTARRS) is currently moving thru the constellations of the summer skies now lost in the daytime glare of the Sun! This comet was originally predicted to reach a maximum apparent magnitude of -0.97 on 10 March 2011 while at perihelion and at perigee during the period of 5 – 6 March 2011! Recent field reports and observations measurements however now indicate that the comet is offset from its rate of progressive brightness and may only become a 3rd magnitude comet! PanSTARRS will be visible to amateur astronomers since it is expected to remain at solar elongations below 40˚ thru the beginning of April. C/2011 L4 is currently on an eastward track thru the ‘southern crown’ Corona Australis and will eventually move northward into Cetus by early March and then Pisces by late March. Any chance of seeing this comet will take place as it finally moves perpendicular from the eastward direction of the Sun across the celestial skies towards the domain of the northern ‘circumpolar’ constellations. It will be located Andromeda by early April during the morning hours before daybreak and then finally Cassiopeia, then Cepheus, Ursa Major, and Draco will into late July as it gets easier to observe at earlier hours in the coming Spring evenings! Comet C/2011 L4 will be long past it’s peak of brightness as it will be moving outwards toward the outer solar system, but will stay between visual magnitudes 7 – 9 making a moderately decent comet for telescopes for the Spring 2013!

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 7 A Synopsis of the Predominant Comets for Autumn 2012! One remaining comet is C/2012 S1 ISON of the International Scientific Optical Network (ISON) which is located near Kislovodsk, by two scientists; Vitali Nevski (Belarus) and Artyom Novichonok (Russia) from 21 Sept 2012 at a visual magnitude of 18.8! Currently this comet is still going thru a ‘double retrograde’ effect while located near the stellar twins of from now thru the early Summer 2013 while it is continuing on a course that will take will within the domain of the ‘inferior planets’ ( and Mercury). It is right now passing thru the region of ’s orbit and recent images are already showing quite a respectable coma at an estimated 300 000 km across (~78% of average Earth Moon distance). Right now the comet is currently reported by the latest field observations between 15 – 16 visual magnitude and photometry extrapolations give a prediction of visual magnitude reaching a theoretical possibility of -9.61 in comparison Venus will reach a maximum brightness of -4.89 predicted for 8 December 2013! This means that C/2012 S1 could reach a peak brightness of ~78.5x greater than the prediction for Venus on the last month of 2013! Improved analysis and a more updated ephemeris on the of comet ISON will not place it anywhere near the proximity of 87,000 mi distance to the Sun’s photosphere obtained by C/2011 W3 Lovejoy back on 16 December 2011 or the 1.1 million mi distance originally estimated for ISON back in Nov & Dec 2012! The best this comet will do in terms of it’s perihelion will be a distance of 0.0312 AU for 29 Nov 2013 about 4,467,454 km (2,774, 289 mi). This is still a distance of equivalence to ~3.21 solar diameters from the Sun’s photosphere, so it will be well immersed in the multimillion degree envelope of the Sun’s Corona!

Predictions forecast comet ISON to reach both maximum apparent brightness, perihelion, and an intermediate apogee of 0.977 AU during the same day of 29 Nov 2013! The solar elongation for this comet is decreasing as it increases in brightness: less than 100˚ by 19/20 March, minimum solar elongation will be 5˚ (11 - 19) July, maximum solar elongation 54˚ (22 – 24) October, 2nd minimum solar elongation of 3˚ on 29 Nov 2013! ISON will not reach solar elongations of 45˚ - 90˚ for possible observations in the morning skies before dawn until (16 – 30) December, but the comet will still be a bright 3rd to 4th apparent magnitude. However, any object brighter than -2.0 magnitude would clearly be a daytime object observable and the first such predominant comet since Ikeya – Seki in 1965. Ikeya – Seki was a member of the Kreutz sungrazers just like C/2011 W3 Lovejoy, but the parabolic path of C/2012 S1 places well outside the plane of the elliptic at an of 62˚ and in the wrong area of the sky from the locations of Ikeya – Seki & Lovejoy so this is not a , but it could be nearly if not equal in exact brightness of magnitude -10.0 for Ikeya – Seki. For night time observations look to the constellation of Draco for any night time observations past perihelion before that the tail of the comet if reaches that of any of the great McNaught comets or Ikeya – Seki should be in the regions of Hercules and Corona Borealis during the period close to and just after perihelion! Right now these are all predictions and conditions for this comet could change rapidly and be unpredictable to the point where it eithers exceed expectations or becomes the great disappointment of 2013, so cautious optimism should be taken as gospel for the time being until the later half of 2013!

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 8 C/2012 F6 (LEMMON) Figure 1: Projected Path of C/2012 F6 (LEMMON) across the celestial skies from 19 July 2012 – 2 May 2013!

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Northern Galactic Hemisphere!

Southern Galactic Hemisphere!

Courtesy of SkyTools 3 Profession Ed, 2012.

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 9 C/2012 F6 (LEMMON) Figure 2: Future Projection of Comet C/2012 F6 when it is visible again in the N hemisphere (23 Apr – 4 Jun) 2013!

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Courtesy of SkyTools 3 Profession Ed, 2012. Note: Comet C/2013 S1 (LEMMON) is expected to be visible again in the N hemisphere by May 2013! Here in Figure 2 we have it’s path just to the east of the ‘Great Square’ of Pegasus moving northward from 8 – 27 May 2013!

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 10 C/2012 K5 (LINEAR) Figure 3: Projected Path of C/2012 K5 (LINEAR) rapid motion thru the Winter Skies: (4 Jan – 4 July) 2013!

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Courtesy of SkyTools 3 Profession Ed, 2012.

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 11 C/2012 K5 (LINEAR) Figure 4: Projected Path of C/2012 K5 (LINEAR) thru Eridandus & Partial retrograde motion (14 Jan – 16 Jul) 2013!

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Courtesy of SkyTools 3 Profession Ed, 2012.

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 12 IAU MPC Ephemeris data for C/2012 K5 (LINEAR): (1 Jan – 1 Mar) 2013

Moon CDT/CST Epoch (J2000.0) Basic Ephemeris Sky Motion Moon Phase Mag.

Date hh:mm:ss R.A. Dec Delta R El. ( ˚ ) Ph. M1* % Fore. "/min P.A. (0.00 - 1.00) (Visual) 1/1/2013 0:00:00 06 20 03.6 44 42 17 N 0.295 1.261 157.6 17.3 8.16 70 13.91 220.6 0.87 -11.98 1/2/2013 0:00:00 06 01 30.5 40 25 33 N 0.299 1.268 159.6 15.7 8.22 73 13.56 217.6 0.79 -11.82 1/3/2013 0:00:00 05 45 47.4 36 08 05 N 0.306 1.275 159.8 15.4 8.30 73 12.97 214.8 0.70 -11.62 1/4/2013 0:00:00 05 32 27.1 31 57 05 N 0.315 1.282 158.5 16.3 8.39 72 12.21 212.8 0.60 -11.36 1/5/2013 0:00:00 05 21 05.2 27 57 46 N 0.327 1.289 156.0 18.0 8.51 69 11.34 211.3 0.49 -11.04 1/6/2013 0:00:00 05 11 21.5 24 13 28 N 0.341 1.296 153.0 20.2 8.63 66 10.42 210.1 0.38 -10.63 1/7/2013 0:00:00 05 02 59.1 20 45 57 N 0.356 1.304 149.7 22.4 8.76 62 9.50 209.1 0.27 -10.09 1/8/2013 0:00:00 04 55 44.4 17 35 44 N 0.374 1.311 146.4 24.5 8.89 58 8.62 208.4 0.17 -9.37 1/9/2013 0:00:00 04 49 26.5 14 42 29 N 0.393 1.319 143.1 26.6 9.04 55 7.78 207.8 0.09 -8.37 1/10/2013 0:00:00 04 43 56.3 12 05 19 N 0.413 1.327 140.0 28.4 9.18 52 7.02 207.3 0.04 -6.83 1/11/2013 0:00:00 04 39 06.6 09 43 06 N 0.434 1.335 137.1 30.1 9.32 50 6.32 206.8 0.00 -3.86 1/12/2013 0:00:00 04 34 51.6 07 34 30 N 0.456 1.343 134.4 31.6 9.46 48 5.69 206.4 0.00 -3.20 1/13/2013 0:00:00 04 31 06.2 05 38 14 N 0.479 1.351 131.8 32.9 9.60 46 5.13 206.0 0.03 -6.46 1/14/2013 0:00:00 04 27 46.6 03 53 01 N 0.502 1.359 129.4 34.0 9.74 44 4.63 205.6 0.08 -8.05 1/15/2013 0:00:00 04 24 49.3 02 17 41 N 0.526 1.367 127.1 35.0 9.87 43 4.18 205.3 0.15 -9.05 1/16/2013 0:00:00 04 22 11.5 00 51 11 N 0.551 1.376 125.0 35.9 10.01 41 3.79 204.9 0.24 -9.76 1/17/2013 0:00:00 04 19 50.9 00 27 28 S 0.576 1.385 123.0 36.6 10.14 40 3.43 204.5 0.33 -10.29 1/18/2013 0:00:00 04 17 45.6 01 39 06 S 0.602 1.393 121.1 37.2 10.27 40 3.12 204.0 0.43 -10.71 1/19/2013 0:00:00 04 15 53.7 02 44 30 S 0.627 1.402 119.3 37.7 10.39 39 2.84 203.5 0.53 -11.04 1/20/2013 0:00:00 04 14 13.8 03 44 19 S 0.653 1.411 117.6 38.2 10.52 38 2.59 203.0 0.62 -11.32 1/21/2013 0:00:00 04 12 44.7 04 39 09 S 0.680 1.420 116.0 38.5 10.64 38 2.36 202.5 0.71 -11.55 1/22/2013 0:00:00 04 11 25.4 05 29 30 S 0.706 1.429 114.4 38.8 10.76 37 2.16 201.8 0.79 -11.75 1/23/2013 0:00:00 04 10 14.8 06 15 49 S 0.733 1.438 113.0 39.1 10.88 37 1.98 201.1 0.86 -11.91 1/24/2013 0:00:00 04 09 12.1 06 58 32 S 0.759 1.447 111.5 39.2 10.99 37 1.82 200.4 0.92 -12.05 1/25/2013 0:00:00 04 08 16.7 07 37 59 S 0.786 1.457 110.2 39.4 11.10 37 1.67 199.6 0.96 -12.15 1/26/2013 0:00:00 04 07 27.9 08 14 29 S 0.813 1.466 108.9 39.5 11.21 36 1.54 198.7 0.99 -12.22 1/27/2013 0:00:00 04 06 45.2 08 48 18 S 0.840 1.476 107.6 39.5 11.32 36 1.42 197.7 1.00 -12.25 1/28/2013 0:00:00 04 06 08.0 09 19 41 S 0.868 1.485 106.4 39.5 11.43 36 1.31 196.6 0.99 -12.25 1/29/2013 0:00:00 04 05 35.9 09 48 52 S 0.895 1.495 105.2 39.5 11.53 36 1.21 195.4 0.96 -12.19 1/30/2013 0:00:00 04 05 08.6 10 16 02 S 0.922 1.504 104.1 39.4 11.63 36 1.12 194.1 0.91 -12.10 1/31/2013 0:00:00 04 04 45.7 10 41 21 S 0.949 1.514 103.0 39.3 11.73 37 1.04 192.7 0.84 -11.96 *M = 9.5 + 5 log d + 13.0 log r All ephemeris data is calculated based on the Geographical location of 1 the George Observatory, SE Texas, United States. 29˚22’30” N, 95˚35’37” W Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 13 IAU MPC Ephemeris data for C/2012 K5 (LINEAR): (1 Jan – 1 Mar) 2013 (Continued) Moon CDT/CST Epoch (J2000.0) Basic Ephemeris Sky Motion Moon Phase Mag.

Date hh:mm:ss R.A. Dec Delta R El. ( ˚ ) Ph. M1* % Fore. "/min P.A. (0.00 - 1.00) (Visual) 2/1/2013 0:00:00 04 04 26.9 11 04 59 S 0.977 1.524 101.9 39.2 11.83 37 0.96 191.2 0.75 -11.77 2/2/2013 0:00:00 04 04 11.9 11 27 05 S 1.004 1.534 100.9 39.1 11.92 37 0.90 189.5 0.65 -11.52 2/3/2013 0:00:00 04 04 00.4 11 47 45 S 1.031 1.544 99.9 39.0 12.02 37 0.83 187.7 0.54 -11.21 2/4/2013 0:00:00 04 03 52.3 12 07 06 S 1.059 1.554 98.9 38.8 12.11 37 0.78 185.8 0.42 -10.82 2/5/2013 0:00:00 04 03 47.3 12 25 15 S 1.086 1.564 97.9 38.6 12.20 38 0.73 183.7 0.31 -10.32 2/6/2013 0:00:00 04 03 45.3 12 42 18 S 1.113 1.574 97.0 38.5 12.29 38 0.68 181.4 0.21 -9.67 2/7/2013 0:00:00 04 03 46.0 12 58 19 S 1.140 1.584 96.0 38.3 12.38 38 0.64 179.0 0.12 -8.80 2/8/2013 0:00:00 04 03 49.4 13 13 22 S 1.168 1.594 95.1 38.0 12.47 38 0.60 176.4 0.06 -7.55 2/9/2013 0:00:00 04 03 55.3 13 27 33 S 1.195 1.605 94.2 37.8 12.56 39 0.57 173.6 0.01 -5.52 2/10/2013 0:00:00 04 04 03.5 13 40 56 S 1.222 1.615 93.4 37.6 12.64 39 0.54 170.7 0.00 -1.84 2/11/2013 0:00:00 04 04 14.0 13 53 33 S 1.249 1.625 92.5 37.4 12.72 39 0.52 167.7 0.01 -5.02 2/12/2013 0:00:00 04 04 26.6 14 05 28 S 1.276 1.636 91.7 37.1 12.81 40 0.49 164.6 0.05 -7.14 2/13/2013 0:00:00 04 04 41.2 14 16 43 S 1.303 1.646 90.8 36.9 12.89 40 0.47 161.4 0.10 -8.38 2/14/2013 0:00:00 04 04 57.7 14 27 23 S 1.330 1.657 90.0 36.6 12.97 40 0.46 158.2 0.18 -9.22 2/15/2013 0:00:00 04 05 16.0 14 37 29 S 1.356 1.667 89.2 36.3 13.05 41 0.45 154.9 0.26 -9.84 2/16/2013 0:00:00 04 05 36.1 14 47 03 S 1.383 1.678 88.4 36.1 13.13 41 0.43 151.7 0.35 -10.33 2/17/2013 0:00:00 04 05 57.8 14 56 08 S 1.410 1.689 87.7 35.8 13.21 42 0.43 148.5 0.44 -10.72 2/18/2013 0:00:00 04 06 21.1 15 04 46 S 1.436 1.699 86.9 35.5 13.28 42 0.42 145.3 0.54 -11.05 2/19/2013 0:00:00 04 06 45.9 15 12 58 S 1.463 1.710 86.2 35.2 13.36 42 0.41 142.3 0.63 -11.33 2/20/2013 0:00:00 04 07 12.1 15 20 47 S 1.489 1.721 85.4 35.0 13.43 43 0.41 139.3 0.72 -11.57 2/21/2013 0:00:00 04 07 39.8 15 28 13 S 1.516 1.731 84.7 34.7 13.50 43 0.41 136.5 0.80 -11.78 2/22/2013 0:00:00 04 08 08.7 15 35 19 S 1.542 1.742 84.0 34.4 13.57 44 0.41 133.8 0.87 -11.95 2/23/2013 0:00:00 04 08 38.9 15 42 05 S 1.568 1.753 83.3 34.1 13.65 44 0.41 131.3 0.93 -12.10 2/24/2013 0:00:00 04 09 10.3 15 48 33 S 1.594 1.764 82.6 33.8 13.72 44 0.41 128.9 0.97 -12.21 2/25/2013 0:00:00 04 09 42.9 15 54 44 S 1.620 1.775 81.9 33.5 13.79 45 0.41 126.7 1.00 -12.28 2/26/2013 0:00:00 04 10 16.7 16 00 40 S 1.645 1.786 81.2 33.2 13.86 45 0.42 124.6 1.00 -12.30 2/27/2013 0:00:00 04 10 51.5 16 06 21 S 1.671 1.797 80.5 32.9 13.92 46 0.42 122.6 0.98 -12.28 2/28/2013 0:00:00 04 11 27.3 16 11 47 S 1.697 1.808 79.8 32.6 13.99 46 0.42 120.8 0.93 -12.20 3/1/2013 0:00:00 04 12 04.2 16 17 01 S 1.722 1.819 79.2 32.4 14.06 46 0.43 119.1 0.87 -12.07

*M1 = 9.5 + 5 log d + 13.0 log r All ephemeris data is calculated based on the Geographical location of the George Observatory, SE Texas, United States. 29˚22’30” N, 95˚35’37” W Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 14 C/2011 L4 PanSTARRS Figure 5: The projected path of the PanSTARRS comet across the Summer Sky (June 2011 – March 2013)!

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Projected Path for C/2011 L4 PanSTARRS

C/2011 L4 PanSTARRS Positions for Maximum brightness performing retrograde effect M1 predicted to be -1 (July 2011 – October 2012) (10 – 11) Mar 2013! Solar Elongation: ~15˚

Courtesy of Seiichi Yoshida’s Comet Page, 2012. Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 15 C/2011 L4 PanSTARRS Figure 6: The projected path of the PanSTARRS comet during predicted peak brightness (29 Dec 2012 – 21 Mar 2013)!

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Courtesy of SkyTools 3 Profession Ed, 2012.

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 16 Ephemeris & Orbital Elements for C/2011 L4 PanSTARRS

Epoch q The epoch of osculation of the orbital elements. Perihelion distance (in AU). M e Mean anomaly at the epoch. . T P Date of perihelion passage. (in years). n Peri. Mean daily motion (in degrees/day). The J2000.0 argument of perihelion (in degrees). a Node Semimajor axis (in AU). The J2000.0 longitude of the ascending node (in degrees). z Incl. Reciprocal semimajor axis (in 1/AU). The J2000.0 inclination (in degrees). P and Q vectors The vectors P and Q are an alternate form of representing the angular elements Peri., Node and Incl. For an explanation of how to convert between the two sets of quantities you are referred to standard celestial mechanics textbooks. U Uncertainty parameter. Not all of these quantities will be given with every orbit, but enough information will always be given to describe an orbit completely. The following two quantities are not orbital elements but are generally given with them. H Absolute visual magnitude. A table converting H to a diameter is available. G Slope parameter. For an explanation of the H,G magnitude system refer to Application of Photometric Models to , Bowell et al., in Asteroids II, 524-556 (published by the University of Arizona Press, ISBN 0-8165-1123-3) and the references therein.

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 17

40 2.8 A: Min. Solar Elong. @ 15.1˚ on 11 Mar 2013 at

36 M1 = -0.94 B: Perigee @ 1.097 AU on 5 – 6 Mar 2013 at 2.4 M = -0.51 & -0.68 respectfully 32 1 Ref. Distance (A.U.) C: Perihelion @ 0.302 AU on 10 Mar 2013 at 28 M1 = -0.97 (Peak Brightness) 2 24 1.6 20 16 A B 1.2 12

8 0.8

4 C 0.4

0 App. Mag (M1)/Solar Elong. (˚) Elong. (M1)/Solar Mag App. -4 0

Date: (MM/DD/YYYY) App. Magnitude (M1) Solar Elongation Delta (Earth Distance) r (Solar Distance)

This chart indicates projections & predictions for perigee, perihelion, Basic Definitions: and maximum apparent brightness in conjunction with solar elongation Perigee – Closest Distance to Earth based on the comet elements calculated for C/2011 L4 (PanSTARRS) Apogee – Furthest Distance from Earth during a time period spanning the first 3 months of 2013! Perihelion – Closest Distance to the Sun The ref. distance shows the change in distance of the comet with respect to both the Earth & the Sun in A.Us! Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 18 C/2012 S1 (ISON) Figure 7: Projected path of C/2012 S1 (ISON) with an expected retrograde repeat: (1 March 2012 – 1 July 2013)!

N

E W

S

Courtesy of SkyTools 3 Profession Ed, 2012.

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 19 C/2012 S1 (ISON) Figure 8: ‘Up Close’ retrograde path of C/2012 S1 (ISON) (30 June 2012 – 15 Aug 2013)!

N

E W

S

Castor

Pullox

Jīxīn Mebsuta (Pile of Firewood) Earth’s Shadow

Courtesy of SkyTools 3 Profession Ed, 2012.

The project path of ISON during this retrograde sequence occurs during the time period from Nov 2012 thru Early August 2013! It is during this period that C/2012 S1 ISON will cross the orbit of Jupiter move thru the belt and move thru the inner solar system! Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 20 C/2012 S1 (ISON) Figure 9: Projected path of the comet across the Northern Celestial Skies from 2010 - 2020!

E

S N

Polaris W

Southern Northern Galactic Galactic Hemisphere! Hemisphere!

Towards Milky Way Galaxy Way Milky the Inner Solar Towards System! the Outer Solar System!

Courtesy of SkyTools 3 Profession Ed, 2012.

This is a Mercator projection map of most of the night sky for both celestial hemispheres! It shows the past and future path of comet C/2012 S1 ISON along with associated retrograde loops as it moves into and out of the inner Solar System through the 2nd decade of the 21st Century! Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 21 C/2012 S1 (ISON) Figure 10: Projected path of the comet between the Summer & Spring Skies (1Oct – 27 Dec) 2013!

N 3

E W

S

2,4,5 1

Courtesy of SkyTools 3 Profession Ed, 2012.

The number indicators show celestial positions when the Comet reaches both perigees, intermediate apogee, perihelion, and maximum apparent brightness (See the Prediction graph on page 16)! Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 22 Ephemeris & Orbital Elements for C/2012 S1 ISON

Epoch q The epoch of osculation of the orbital elements. Perihelion distance (in AU). M e Mean anomaly at the epoch. Orbital eccentricity. T P Date of perihelion passage. Orbital period (in years). n Peri. Mean daily motion (in degrees/day). The J2000.0 argument of perihelion (in degrees). a Node Semimajor axis (in AU). The J2000.0 longitude of the ascending node (in degrees). z Incl. Reciprocal semimajor axis (in 1/AU). The J2000.0 inclination (in degrees). P and Q vectors The vectors P and Q are an alternate form of representing the angular elements Peri., Node and Incl. For an explanation of how to convert between the two sets of quantities you are referred to standard celestial mechanics textbooks. U Uncertainty parameter. Not all of these quantities will be given with every orbit, but enough information will always be given to describe an orbit completely. The following two quantities are not orbital elements but are generally given with them. H Absolute visual magnitude. A table converting H to a diameter is available. G Slope parameter. For an explanation of the H,G magnitude system refer to Application of Photometric Models to Asteroids, Bowell et al., in Asteroids II, 524-556 (published by the University of Arizona Press, ISBN 0-8165-1123-3) and the references therein.

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 23

-15 2.5

1: Perigee 1 – 0.856 AU (21 Nov 2013) 4: Peak Brightness of M1 = -9.61

2: Intermediate Apogee – 0.977 AU (29 Nov 2013) 5: Perihelion of 0.0312 AU or 4,467,454 km (2,774,289 mi) 4 -10 3: Perigee 2 – 0.4291 AU (27 Dec 2013) 29 Nov 2013 (Both on the Same Day!) 2 Ref. Distance (A.U.)

-5 1.5 0 2 1 1 5

3 0.5

10 Apparent Magnitude (M1) Magnitude Apparent 5 15 0

Date: (MM/DD/YYYY) App. Magnitude (M1) Delta (Earth Distance) r (Solar Distance) M1 = 5.5 + 5 log (d) + 10.0 log (r)

This chart indicates projections & predictions for apogee, perigee, Basic Definitions: perihelion, and maximum apparent brightness based on the comet Perigee – Closest Distance to Earth elements calculated for C/2012 S1 during the period between Autumn Apogee – Furthest Distance from Earth 2013 & Early Spring 2014 over a period lasting 5 months! Perihelion – Closest Distance to the Sun The ref. distance shows the change in distance of the comet with respect to both the Earth & the Sun in A.Us! Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 24 Overview of the Orbital Differences for Comets!

Figure 6.1 Figure 6.2

P – Periodic Comets

C – Non Periodic Comets

Comet Garradd is the perfect example of a non – periodic comet! The path is hyperbolic in nature. Comet 45P/Honda – Mrkos – Pajdusakova however is the perfect example of a periodic comet which is elliptical in nature.

Figures 6.1 & 6.2 are of Comet C/Garradd 2009 P1 and Figure 6.3 below shows the orbit of 45P.

All images were obtained from the JPL Solar System Dynamics/Small Body Database Browser . Courtesy of NASA/JPL/CalTech

Figure 6.3

Winter Season Jan/Feb 2013 25 The Predominant Comets for Winter 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report

C/2012 S1 (ISON) (16 December 2012) © Jose Francisco Hernandez

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 26 The Predominant Comets for Winter 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report Continued

Pons – Gambart C/2012 F6 (LEMMON) 273P/2012 V4 (16 December 2012) (12 December 2012) © Michael Jager © Jose Francisco Hernandez

C/2011 F1 (LINEAR) (6 October 2012) © Jose Francisco Hernandez Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 27 The Predominant Comets for Winter 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report Continued

McNaught - Russell 262P/2012 K7 (12 December 2012) C/2012 K5 (LINEAR) © Jean – Francois Soulier (19 December 2012) © Jose Carrillo

C/2011 R1 (McNaught) (13 September 2012) © John Drummond

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 28 The Predominant Comets for Winter 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report Continued

C/2012 T5 (Bressi) C/2012 L2 (LINEAR) (17 December 2012) (15 December 2012) © Jean – Francois Soulier © Jose Francisco Hernandez

168P/Hergenrother (6 December 2012) 29P/Schwassmann – Wachmann 1 © Jose Francisco Hernandez (12 December 2012) ©Jean – Francois Soulier

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013 The Professor Comet’s Report 29

Winter Season – Jan/Feb 2013