Passenger Air Transport in the First Weeks of the 2020 Pandemic

Transport Geography Papers of Polish Geographical Society 2020, 23(2), 20-27

DOI 10.4467/2543859XPKG.20.003.12101

Received: 20.05.2020 Received in revised form: 05.06.2020 Accepted: 05.06.2020 Published: 15.06.2020

EMPTY SKY OVER THE WORLD – PASSENGER AIR TRANSPORT IN THE FIRST WEEKS OF THE 2020 PANDEMIC

Puste niebo na świecie – pasażerski transport lotniczy w pierwszych tygodniach pandemii 2020

Edyta Pijet-Migoń

Wroclaw School of Banking, Fabryczna 29-31, 53-609 Wrocław, Poland e-mail: [email protected]

Citation: Pijet-Migoń E., 2020, Empty sky over the world – passenger air transport in the first weeks of the 2020 pandemic,Prace Komisji Geografii Komunikacji PTG, 23(2), 20–27.

Abstract: The development of the SARS-CoV-2 virus epidemic and the associated restrictions on mobility have affected many sectors of the economy, but one of the first to suffer especially was passenger air transport. None of the previous crises in the aviation industry had been so significant and so global. At the beginning of April 2020, air passenger traffic decreased by around 70% globally and by around 90% in Europe compared to 2019. At some European airports, very few air operations were carried out, or they were even completely suspended. The loss of revenues by entities from the aviation sector caused their significant financial problems, which cannot be solved without external support. After lifting the travel restrictions, a reduction in demand for travel by air can be expected. Most likely, the carrier market will consolidate, and the connection network will be reduced, which may aggravate the problems of some already unprofitable airports.

Keywords: pandemic, passenger air transport, airports Empty sky over the world – passenger air transport in the first weeks of the 2020 pandemic 21

Introduction At the time of writing, full official reports and sta- tistical data were not yet available; therefore, the The dynamic development of air transport in recent presented analysis should be treated as a preliminary years has been associated with many factors, includ- one. It will need to be verified once all data is avail- ing technological progress, economic development, able. Its purpose is to show the problems of the avia- changes in aviation law, globalization processes, but tion industry caused by the pandemic and attempts also lifestyle changes (Doganis, 2006; Hanlon, 2007; to solve or at least minimize them. The study uses, Trzepacz, 2007; Huderek-Glapska, 2010; Hawlena, among others, official reports of the World Health 2012; Rucińska et al., 2012; Jankiewicz, Huderek- Organisation (WHO), aviation organisations, includ- Glapska, 2016). There is a synergy effect between ing the International Air Transport Association (IATA), air transport and economic growth. Along with the CAPA Centre for Aviation, the Ministry of Foreign Af- economic development of countries and regions op- fairs, as well as press releases and official statements erating in a network of international connections, the of the CEOs and managers of airlines, published demand for air transport was increasing (Hawlena, on websites www.pasazer.com and www.rynek- 2012), and at the same time air transport contributed lotniczy.pl. to economic development in a direct, indirect and in- duced way (Pancer-Cybulska et al., 2014; Olipra, 2016; 1. The beginning of the epidemic – restricting Pancer-Cybulska, Olipra, 2016). connections to and within Asia The number of passengers and the fleet size have significantly increased on a global scale; new The city of Wuhan in the Hubei province in China is airports were built, and the network of connections considered the place of outbreak of the epidemic, developed, despite the fact that the development where according to the Wuhan Municipal Health and functioning of air transport were disturbed seve- Commission on December 12–29, 2019, the first cases ral times by natural and non-natural factors. The of pneumonia of an unknown then type occurred events that seriously affected the functioning of air (Fig. 1) (http://en.nhc.gov.cn). On December 31, 2019, transport in the 21st century included: the terrorist information about the incidence was submitted to attacks of September 11, 2001 (Nolan et al., 2004), the the World Health Organisation (WHO) (https://www. SARS epidemic in 2002, the A/H1N1 epidemic – the who.int). A week later, the Chinese authorities offi- so-called swine influenza in 2009 (Lau et al., 2010) and cially announced that a new virus has been identified, the volcanic eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland in and initially named it 2019-nCov and later referred April 2010, which necessitated a temporary suspen- to as COVID-19 or coronavirus. The virus began to sion of air connections due to hovering volcanic ash spread not only within China, but very quickly, the that threatened the safety of flights (Ulfarsson, Unger, first cases were reported in other countries. On Janu- 2011). A clear temporary decrease in the global de- ary 13, 2020, the first sick person was diagnosed in mand for air transport was influenced by the financial Thailand, two days later the first person in Japan. crisis in 2008–2009 (Tłoczyński, 2012; 2018). However, Both fell ill after returning from Wuhan. On January none of these crises in passenger aviation caused 21, 2020, the world was officially informed of the first such a severe reduction in the number of flights and cases of illness in Washington State in the United a decrease in the number of passengers on a global States. The number of patients in China was increas- scale as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. ing very dynamically. On January 22, a decision was The purpose of this article is to present chrono- made to lock down the city of Wuhan and suspend logically the airlines’ response to the development all air and rail connections from that city (Fig. 1). Four of the epidemic and to the related decisions of gov- days later, the China Association of Travel Services ernments of individual countries imposing a ban on announced that all domestic and foreign trips or- movement, which have led to the great crisis of the ganised by Chinese agencies would be cancelled or aviation sector. In addition, the article presents views postponed (https://www.chinatravelnews.com). On and preliminary forecasts of the further functioning January 29, 2020, due to the threat of spreading the of the market of air transport and possible changes epidemic, British Airways indefinitely cancelled con- in this sector, being a direct or an indirect result of nections to the serviced Chinese cities – Beijing and the pandemic1. Shanghai (connections to Hong Kong continued). Two days later, other airlines, including Air France and Air Canada, suspended connections to China, 1 International Air Transport Organization: https://www. iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-re- also leaving flights to Hong Kong on offer. On Feb- ports/covid-19-wider-economic-impact-from-air-trans- ruary 9, 2020, Lufthansa, SAS and LOT Polish Airlines port-collapse/ [07.04.2020] cancelled their connections to China. According to 22 Edyta Pijet-Migoń official reports, at that time the number of infected during the epidemic in Europe. At that time, the epi- people in China exceeded 10,000. Over 70 countries demic rapidly developed in northern Italy, especially closed their borders to Chinese citizens and people in Lombardy. The first case in this part of Italy was of other nationalities residing in the territory of that confirmed on February 16, 2020, and in the following country. In February 2020, around 70% of internation- days the number of cases was growing at a very fast al flights to and from China were cancelled, as were pace. On February 29, 2020, the number of people domestic flights. Passenger traffic at Chinese airports diagnosed with the virus reached 1,128 cases (https:// that month decreased by about 75% compared to the www.who.int). At the beginning of March, some Euro- same period in 2019 (https://www.oag.com/). pean airlines, especially the low-cost ones (including There was a rapid development of the epidemic Wizzair, Easy Jet, Ryanair), reduced the frequency of also in South Korea. In the last days of February 2020, flights to Italy or even suspended some destinations. the number of confirmed cases of infection exceeded After the introduction of restrictions on the possibil- 3,700 people (https://www.who.int). In the first days ity of traveling around Italy on 8 March 2020, further of March 2020, many airlines, including LOT Polish Air- airlines suspended connections to Italian ports. lines, suspended their connections to Seoul (https:// At that time the epidemic was also spreading in www.rynek-lotniczy.pl). other European countries. Most cases were recorded

Fig. 1. Timeline – development of the epidemic and restrictions on mobility introduced by national governments and response from airlines. Source: own work

2. The development of the epidemic in Europe in Spain, France and Germany, but no European coun- – reduction of the European connections try was able to protect itself against infections. Due to network the fear of a further rapid increase in infections, the governments of Denmark, Poland, the Czech Repub- The first two cases of COVID-19 in Europe were dis- lic, Slovakia and Ukraine decided on March 13, 2020 covered in Italy in Rome on January 31, 2020, in a pair to close their borders from March 15, 2020 (Ukraine of Chinese tourists. On February 14, 2020, the first closed its borders on March 16) and to restore border Chinese tourist who had previously been diagnosed crossings between countries of the Schengen zone. In with COVID-19 died in France. It was the first death the case of Poland, this meant immediately suspend- Empty sky over the world – passenger air transport in the first weeks of the 2020 pandemic 23

ing all international air connections and maintain- closely related tourism industry. According to IATA ing only charter flights that Polish citizens could use statistics, the overall plunge in passenger services to return to the country. All persons returning from reached 70% globally at the beginning of April 2020, abroad had to undergo a 14-day home quarantine. while in Europe it was as much as 90%. On March 17, 2020, all European Union countries According to Eurocontrol data, in the first days of associated under the Schengen Agreement decided April 2020, all European airlines suffered from drastic to close external borders. In the case of internal bor- declines in the number of conducted operations. Ry- ders, individual countries took independent decisions anair recorded a decrease of 97%, Lufthansa, SAS, Air on this matter. In total, 12 EU countries reinstated France and KLM – 96%, IAG (British Airways and Iberia) internal border controls within Schengen (https:// – 95%; among smaller lines – Portuguese TAP – 100%, www.pap.pl). TUI – 99%, Wizzair – 95%, LOT – 99%, Wideroe – 70%. Most of Europe’s largest airports in the first half of 3. Announcing the pandemic and restrictive April 2020 had about 92% fewer flight operations actions taken by states compared to the same period in 2019 (for example, London City – decreased by 92%, Gatwick – 98%, On March 11, 2020, a few days before the decision of Heathrow – 94%, Manchester – 99%, Barcelona – 95%, many European countries to close their borders, the Vienna – 96%, Munich – 95%) (https://www.gov.pl/ World Health Organisation (WHO) announced a pan- web/dyplomacja). demic. This information influenced the introduction The Lufthansa airline group limited the route of- of further regulations aimed at limiting the mobility fer to 5% of the original schedule for all destinations of the population and thus limiting the spread of in April. About 700 aircraft from 763 planes of the coronavirus. On the same day, President Donald group were temporarily grounded (https://www. Trump introduced a ban on coming to the US for pasazer.com). One of the runways at Frankfurt Air- citizens of 26 Schengen countries. This ban was ex- port was turned into a parking lot for more than 20 tended a few days later to Great Britain and Ireland wide-body aircraft. In the first half of April 2020, only as well. a few medium-haul flights and three flights a week In the second half of March 2020, more countries from Frankfurt to New York (Newark airport) were closed their borders, which led to the largest mass operated by Lufthansa. quarantine in history at the end of this month – it Low-cost airlines, including the European leader is estimated that over 1/3 of the world’s population Ryanair, were also in a very difficult situation. The air- was subject to travel restrictions. They concerned not line’s management said it expected minimal or even only international travel, but also national and local complete lack of passenger traffic in April and May one. China, India, New Zealand, Israel, Italy, Spain, 2020 due to the pandemic that led to travel bans in al- France, the Czech Republic, Poland and later Great most all of Europe. In March 2020, the airline recorded Britain were among the countries that introduced a decline in passenger numbers of around 50% after the greatest restrictions related to people’s mobility. Italy and other European countries closed their bor- Closing borders and suspending connections re- ders (https://www.businesstraveller.com). The Italian quired the governments of individual countries to market was among the key ones for this airline as it organise so-called repatriation flights for tourists and offered both international connections to 27 Italian many others who were abroad when the borders cities and it served many Italian domestic routes us- were closed. In Poland, bringing citizens to Poland ing the EU right to full cabotage (Pijet-Migoń, 2016). was called “flight (originally “LOT”, as LOT means In March 2020, the Ryanair Group transported only ‘flight’ in Polish) home”. This action was entrusted 5.7 million passengers, which accounted for 48% of to only one carrier – LOT Polish Airlines. It was con- the number of passengers in March 2019 (https:// ducted from March 16 to the first days of April 2020. centreforaviation.com). That month, the entire Ry- During this time, over 320 special flights were organ- anair group operated 33,000 flights, just over half ised, and over 47,500 Poles and about 800 citizens of the planned number, including a series of rescue, of other countries were transported (https://www. repatriation and medical flights commissioned by gov.pl/web/dyplomacja). governments of various European Union countries. Passenger traffic also significantly decreased in 4. Air transport crisis Poland, especially at regional airports, where in the second half of March and in April in many cases it The closure of borders and the introduced restric- even dropped to zero. Some airports only operated tions on mobility first hit the transport sector, and special traffic – medical, governmental and cargo. In the most severely the air transport sector and the Poland, in March 2019, the volume of passenger traf- 24 Edyta Pijet-Migoń fic at all airports exceeded 3 million people, while in After closing the borders and introducing restric- the same month in 2020 it amounted to only 251,000 tions on movement, traffic in regional airports in Po- (Table 1). land practically froze. According to the Association of Regional Airports, in the period from March 16 Tab. 1. A comparison of passenger traffic in Polish airports to April 5, 2020, a 90% decrease in aviation opera- in the first quarter of 2019 and 2020. tions was recorded at thirteen Polish regional airports (http://zrpl.pl) (Table 2). According to data from the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency, during the Month 2019 2020 first three weeks of flight bans, 1,184 air operations (take-offs and landings) took place in all regional air- January 3,019,376 2,759,952 ports in Poland. In the corresponding period of 2019, the number of such operations amounted to 12,553 (https://www.pansa.pl). February 2,973,562 907,330 Such a significant decrease translates into a very large reduction in revenues for airports. According to the Association of Regional Airports, 30,000 people March 3,338,548 250,924 are directly employed at regional airports, and the effect of the airports’ catalytic impact on the labour Source: own work based on data from www.pasazer.com market is estimated at around 80,000 jobs.

Tab. 2. Comparison of the number of operations at regional airports in Poland during the first three weeks of the ban on flights with the same period in 2019.

Airport Number of operations Number of operations Change in the number made from 16 Mar until made from 16 Mar until of operations 05 Apr 2020 05 Apr 2019

Bydgoszcz 23 214 -89%

Gdańsk 221 2259 -90%

Katowice 296 1653 -82%

Cracow 215 3269 -93%

Lublin 0 164 -100%

Lodz 13 171 -92%

Modlin 72 1144 -94%

Olsztyn-Szymany 8 79 -90%

Poznań 137 1098 -87%

Rzeszów 28 521 -95%

Szczecin 15 322 -95%

Wrocław 156 1616 -90%

Zielona Góra 0 23 -100%

Source: based on data from the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency (www.pansa.pl) Empty sky over the world – passenger air transport in the first weeks of the 2020 pandemic 25

5. Problems of the aviation industry and in March 2020, some airlines reduced the number of uncertain future employees (e.g. Qantas, Air Canada, Norwegian Air Shuttle, West Jet); some employees had to use over- 5.1. Airlines during the crisis due or start new holidays. American Delta airlines suggested early retirement to some personnel. In The suspension of passenger flights in many regions some airlines (Finnair, Lufthansa), part of the cabin of the world has led to a completely unusual situation crew with medical training were reassigned to help in the history of aviation. The crowded airspace over in medical facilities. In many companies (e.g. in the many countries just a few months earlier now be- Ryanair group) employees were offered reduced sala- gan to be almost empty. According to data from the ries or unpaid holidays. Flightradar24 website showing the real-time location Airlines will be forced to take various measures of aircraft on a map, the average number of commer- to prevent liquidity loss. Obtaining financial support cial flights (calculated on a weekly basis) performed from the state will be very important. The previous daily in the first week of April 2020 was 31,214, while in financial situation and the amount of reserves held January 2020 it was still 110,000 (https://www.flight- will affect the condition of individual airlines and the radar24.com) (Fig. 2). possibility to survive the crisis. Aviation market ana-

Fig. 2.. Number of commercial flights, including scheduled passenger, cargo, charter flights and some business flights. Source: own work based on Flightradar24

IATA (the International Air Transport Associa- lysts expect an acceleration and deepening of the tion) estimates airline losses due to the pandemic market consolidation process that has been ongo- at $250 billion (https://www.iata.org). The collapse ing for several years now (https://www.cnbc.com). of demand for air transport may lead the aviation Already at the beginning of the fall in demand for air industry to a deeper crisis than all the previous ones, connections in February and March 2020, two airlines especially as it will be exacerbated in the near fu- that were already struggling with financial problems ture by the expected huge economic crisis resulting went bankrupt – Air Italy (bankruptcy announced on from the development of the epidemic caused by February 25, 2020) and a British regional carrier Flybe the COVID-19 virus. (bankruptcy announced on March 4, 2020). The accurate extent of the future crisis is current- ly difficult to estimate because there are still many 5.2. Demand for transport services unknown affecting factors, including the most important – the duration of the pandemic and of the Having a large fleet in comparison to the demand will restrictions on the mobility and organisation of major be a serious problem for airlines in the near future. events. At the moment, no one can predict how long Therefore, it can be expected that airlines will with- returning to pre-pandemic passenger traffic may take draw older machines or those too large in relation to and whether it is at all possible in a relatively short demand. Already in March and April 2020, Dutch KLM time, or whether it will take several or more years airlines announced the termination of operating Boe- to return to the previously noted level of passenger ings 747, Emirates began using Boeing 777 on seve- volume. According to IATA, the pandemic crisis might ral routes formerly operated by A380 double-deck result in closing 25 million jobs worldwide. Already Airbus, the board of the Lufthansa Group decided 26 Edyta Pijet-Migoń on April 7, 2020, to limit flights and withdraw from mean that passenger air transport will not return to operations six Airbus A380, seven Airbus A340-600, its former level of functioning for a long time. None five Boeing 747-400 and eleven Airbus A320 (https:// of the earlier crises that affected the aviation industry www.businesstraveller.com). after World War II was so significant and none was In times of reduced demand for passenger trans- so global. The loss of revenues during suspension of port, airlines began to use, to a limited extent, passen- flights and the expected decline in demand for air ger planes (after appropriate adaptation) for freight, transport may cause that many entities from the air especially light and urgently needed medical goods transport sector – airlines, airports and flight control (e.g. Cathay Pacific, Air Canada, Lufthansa, Emirates, companies – will not be able to cope without external Tarom). Many airlines (incl. Easy Jet, Emirates) can- support of the state or additional financial support celled previous large purchase orders for a new fleet from regional budgets in the case of regional airports. (https://centreforaviation.com). Serious reductions of However, even short-term government aid may not orders may aggravate the already existing problems prevent smaller financially troubled enterprises or of aircraft manufacturers, especially Boeing. companies from going bankrupt. The future of many The ongoing pandemic and the imminent eco- entities in the air transport sector will depend not nomic crisis will affect the activities of most enter- only on the ability to adapt to the changed market prises. It can be expected that they will be forced to situation, but also on the transport and tourism policy cut costs of running their businesses. As with previous of countries and organisations. crises, one can expect a reduction in business travel (Hanlon, 2007) and an increase in the popularity of Literature online meetings and conferences, which have become greatly popular at a time of reduced mobility and so- Doganis R., 2006, The Airline Business, Routledge, London cial isolation. Nowadays, it is difficult to predict clearly Graham A., Papatheodorou A., Forsyth P., 2008, Aviation how the pandemic will affect individual travel habits. and Tourism, Ashgate, Aldershot. In times of a crisis or economic slowdown, when the Hanlon P., 2008, Global airlines. 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