COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANAL YSIS State College,

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of June 1, 2011

Summary

Economy Rental Market Economic conditions are weak but Rental housing market conditions in improving in College HMA. the HMA are tight, with an estimated Housing Market Area During the 12 months ending May overall 2.5-percent vacancy rate, an 2011, nonfarm payrolls increased by increase from the estimated 2.3-percent 150 jobs, or 0.2 percent, to 74,350 jobs rate reported in the 2010 Census. During compared with the number of jobs the 3-year forecast period, demand is during the previous 12-month period. expected to total approximately 340 new rentals units (see Table 1). The approxi- Cameron Growth in the goods-producing sectors

Lycoming and in the professional and business mately 70 rental units currently under Clinton services and the leisure and hospitality construction will meet a portion of this sectors partially offset declines in other demand. Clearfield

Centre sectors. During the 3-year forecast nion U period, nonfarm payrolls are expected Table 1. Housing Demand in the Snyder State College HMA, 3-Year n to increase by an average of 1.0 per­ ffli Mi ata Forecast, June 1, 2011 to ni cent annually, with most of the growth Blair Ju June 1, 2014 occurring during the second and third State College HMA Huntingdon years of the forecast period. Sales Rental Units Units The State College Housing Market Area Sales Market Total Demand 1,650 340 (HMA), located 200 miles northwest of The home sales market in the State Philadelphia, is coterminous with Centre Under College HMA is slightly soft, with an Construction 50 70 County, Pennsylvania. The HMA is home estimated 1.5-percent vacancy rate. Notes: Total demand represents estimated to University Park, the main campus of During the next 3 years, demand is production necessary to achieve a balanced Pennsylvania State University (PSU). With market at the end of the forecast period. Units expected for 1,550 new homes and under construction as of June 1, 2011. Total approximately 45,000 students and nearly 100 mobile homes (see Table 1). Some demand includes an estimated demand for 23,200 full- and part-time employees, 100 mobile homes. A portion of the estimated of the 4,750 other vacant units in the 4,750 other vacant units in the HMA will likely PSU is the largest employer in the HMA. HMA may re-enter the market and satisfy some of the forecast demand. Source: Estimates by analyst satisfy a portion of the demand during the forecast period. Market Details Economic Conditions...... 2 Population and Households...... 4 Housing Market Trends...... 6 Data Profile...... 9 State Colleg e , PA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 2 Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics Figure 1. Source: U.S. BureauofLabor Statistics Note: Currentis basedon12-monthaveragesthrough May2011. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics add to totals because of rounding. Notes: Based on 12-month averages through May 2010 and May 2011. Numbers may not Table 2. Figure 2. Total NonfarmPayroll Jobs Service Providing Goods Producing – 60 Labor Force & Government Leisure &Hospitality Education &HealthServices Professional &BusinessServices Nonreported Sectors Manufacturing Mining, Logging,&Construction Resident Employment Economic Conditions 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 12-MonthAverage Nonfarm Payroll JobsintheStateCollege HMA, bySector – 50 SectorGrowthintheStateCollegeHMA,Percentage Change,2000toCurrent ment Rate in the State College HMA, 2000 to 2010 Trends in Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemploy Labor Force

– 40 2000

2001 – 30

2002

– 20 2003 Resident Employment

2004 – 10

2005 in nonfarmpayrollstheHMA 2009, whichwasthelargestdecline loss of900jobs,or0.9percent,in T 12 Months Ending 16,050 67,300 74,200 30,850 2010 6,950 7,825 5,625 3,825 3,100 6,900

2006 May 0 HMA isrecoveringfromthe he economy of the State College

2007 10

2008 12 Months 15,850 66,900 74,350 30,450 Ending 20 2011 7,075 7,800 5,750 3,925 3,500 7,425

Unemployment Rate 2009 May

2010 30 Change Percent 10.0 – 0.2 – 1.3 – 0.6 – 1.3 13.5 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 1.7 2.1 2.8 7.6 0.2 40

Unemployment Rate - 50 from the6.2-percentraterecorded which averaged5.7percent,down decrease intheunemploymentrate, the past12monthscontributedtoa combined withjobgrowthduring Table 2).Adeclineinthelaborforce or 0.2percent,to74,350jobs(see nonfarm payrolls increased by 150 jobs, the 12-month period ending May 2011, jobs, or1.4percent,in2003.During of growthfollowedtheloss1,000 1.1 percent,ayear.The5-yearperiod increased by an average of 800 jobs, or through 2008,whennonfarmpayrolls growth intheHMAlastingfrom2004 decline followed a period of economic the past5years.The2009economic natural gasdrillingattheMarcellus of increasedactivityassociatedwith by 400jobs,or13.5percent,because months endingMay2011,growing increase intheHMAduring12 sector recordedthelargestpayroll The mining, logging, and construction growth intheHMAsince2000. for thepercentagechangeinsector unemployment rateandFigure2 resident employment,andaverage See Figure1fortrendsinlaborforce, ployment rateaveraged4.0percent. From 2004through2008,theunem during theprevious12-monthperiod. Total NonfarmPayroll Jobs Service Providing Goods Producing Education &HealthServices Professional &BusinessServices Nonreported Sectors Manufacturing Government Leisure &Hospitality Mining, Logging,&Construction -

State Colleg e , PA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 3 Economic Conditions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Based on 12-month averages through May 2011. Figure 3. 40.9% Government Mining, Logging,&Construction4.7% Leisure &Hospitality9.5% Current NonfarmPayroll JobsintheStateCollegeHMA, by Sector

Continued 130, and100jobs,or2.1,1.7, manufacturing sectors,whichadded services, leisureandhospitality, include the professional and business during the 12 months ending May 2011 Other sectorsexperiencingjobgrowth during theprevious12-monthperiod. unchanged fromthenumber drilled College HMA,whichisrelatively Shale wellsweredrilledintheState ing May2011,atotalof23Marcellus Protection, duringthe12monthsend­ vania DepartmentofEnvironmental natural gas. According to the Pennsyl Marcellus Shaleisamajorsourceof sylvania andsurroundingstates,the Shale. Located beneath much of Penn has anestimated$2.4billionannual employees atUniversityPark,which because ofthenearly23,200state the nonfarmpayrolljobsinHMA subsector accountsforone-thirdof (see Figure 3), and the state government accounts for40percentofHMAjobs or 2.0percent.Thegovernmentsector government subsectorlost100jobs, 200 jobs,or0.8percent,andthelocal The stategovernmentsubsectorlost state andlocalgovernmentpayrolls. or 1.3percent,becauseofdeclining the governmentsectorlost400jobs, Partially offsetting the overall job gains, and 2.8percent,respectively. Education &HealthServices10.5% Manufacturing 5.3% Professional &BusinessServices7.7% Nonreported Sectors21.3%

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In 2010,MountNittanyMedical during theprevious12-monthperiod. May 2011 compared with employment changed duringthe12monthsending nonfarm payrolls,wasrelativelyun­ for approximately10per­ health servicessector,accounting Employment intheeducationand increase enrollmentatthiscampus. versity hasnoplanstosignificantly University Parkcampus,andtheuni graduate studentswereenrolledatthe fall of 2010, 45,000 undergraduate and by PSU.AccordingtoPSU,asofthe recent dataavailable)commissioned according toa2008study(themost impact ontheHMA’seconomy, continue tolead jobgrowth. health servicessectorsareexpected to business services,andeducation and and construction,professional and years of the period. The mining, logging, annually, duringthesecondandthird moderate rate,averaging1.5percent forecast periodbeforegrowingata percent, duringthefirstyearof increase by200jobs,orlessthan0.5 Nonfarm payrollsareexpectedto employers in the HMA. new jobs.Table3lists the largest East Wing,whichcreatedabout20 65,000-square-foot additionnamed Mount Nittanyopeneda$38million, additional square feet. In August 2010, a renovationthatwilladd28,000 sive cancercenterprojectincludes to expand to 60 beds. The comprehen occupancy rooms,withthecapability a helicopterpad,and40newsingle- includes a 40,000-square foot addition, emergency departmentexpansion comprehensive cancercenter.The gency departmentexpansionanda construction ona$72millionemer area, with1,425employees,started Center, thelargesthospitalin cent oftotal - -

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State Colleg e , PA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 4 Economic Conditions Population andHouseholds

Continued A accounted for approximately 60 percent minus(resident births resident deaths) During thisperiod, netnaturalchange 1,575people, or1.1percent,ayear.of population growth slowed to an average Betweenin-migration. 2004and2010, pects in the HMA resulted in increased and relatively stable employment pros­ sources, thereasonably pricedhousing metropolitan areas. According tolocal from thePittsburghandPhiladelphia Blair, andHuntingdonCounties, and Clearfield,Clinton, from surrounding vice, peoplewere relocatingmainly Revenueto datafromtheInternal Ser­ overall populationgrowth. According accounting for nearly 80 percentthe of cent, annually, withnetin-migration grew by an average 2,725, of or 2.0 per From 2000through2003,population thegrowth duringthatperiod. of accounted for approximately 75 percent annually since2000.Netin-migration approximatelyof 1,675, or 1.2 percent, was estimatedat154,500,anincrease Sources: Note: Excludes local school districts. Table 3. AccuWeather, Inc. Dante’s RestaurantInc. Geisinger MedicalGroup Weis Markets,Inc. HRI, Inc. Raytheon Company The MeadowsPsychiatricCenter Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Mount NittanyMedicalCenter Pennsylvania StateUniversity, Behavioral Health and UniversalCommunity University ParkCampus Centre Daily Times; tion of thetion State of College HMA June 1,2011,thepopula s of

Major EmployersintheStateCollegeHMA Employer Name of Centre County Chamber of Commerce Professional &BusinessServices Wholesale &RetailTrade Education &HealthServices Wholesale &RetailTrade Logging, Mining,&Construction Professional &BusinessServices Education &HealthServices Wholesale &RetailTrade Education &HealthServices Government ­- - -

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population growth rate of 1.2percent, population growth rateof 1.4 percent,slightly fasterthan the households has increasedatarateof date.and thecurrent Thenumber of tenure intheHMAfor2000, 2010, households by shows thenumber of mated 57,600households. Figure6 The HMAcurrently includesanesti­ through theforecastperiod. tion change intheHMAfrom2000 popula illustrates thecomponentsof hold growth in the HMA and Figure 5 Figure 4shows population andhouse­ population is expected to reach 160,200. the end the of forecast period, the HMA annually duringthenext 3years. By growth1,900 people, of or 1.2 percent, to resultinanaverage population modest economicgainsareexpected population growth. Improving but theoverall counting foralmostallof annually, withnetnaturalchange ac averaging 440people, or0.3percent, 2011, populationgrowth was slow, weak economy. From 2010toJune the declined substantially becauseof the populationof growth; in-migration Nonfarm Payroll Sector Employees Number of 23,200 1,425 350 370 430 450 500 500 530 780 - -

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State Colleg e , PA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 5 Population andHouseholds

Continued nearly 580,or1.0percent,to59,350. households isexpected toincreaseby the forecastperiod,number of date.from 2000tothecurrent During Figure 5. Figure 6. Figure 4. estimates byanalyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;current forecast— analyst Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; current—estimatesby estimates byanalyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;currentforecast— Average Annual Change Average Annual Change 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 5,000 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 200 400 600 800 200 400 600 800 0 0 0

HMA, 2000toForecast Population andHouseholdGrowthintheStateCollege Components ofPopulationChangeintheStateCollege HMA, 2000toForecast HMA, 2000toCurrent Number ofHouseholdsbyTenure intheStateCollege 2000 to2010 2000 to2010 2000 Net NaturalChange Population Renter 2010 toCurrent 2010 toCurrent 2010 through the current date.through thecurrent in theHMAbytenure from2000 See Table DP-1forhouseholdgrowth Owner Households Net Migration Current toForecast Current toForecast Current State Colleg e , PA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 6 Housing Market Trends Source: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey Notes: Includesonlysingle-family units.IncludesdatathroughMay2011. Figure 7. 1,000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0

2000 Single-Family BuildingPermitsIssuedintheState College HMA,2000to2011

2001

2002

2003

2004 Sales Market accounted for approximately 13 percent 12 months. New homesales, which the 1,350soldduringprevious homes sold,down 12percentfrom attached anddetachedsingle-family ending May 2011,1,175existing Wood, LLC, duringthe12months Survey (ACS). AccordingtoHanley in the2009AmericanCommunity from the1.2-percentratereported inthe2010Censusbutup reported cent, down fromthe1.6-percentrate 1.5per­ salesvacancycurrent rateof College HMAisslightly soft,witha The homesalesmarketintheState 6 percentfromthemedianpricein family homes was $188,000, up nearly existing attachedanddetachedsingle- May 2011,themediansalespricefor According toHanleyWood, LLC, in 380 homessold. sales peakedin2007,whennearly 1,850 homessold,andnew home home sales peaked in 2005, when nearly previous 12-monthperiod.Existing new homessoldduringthe number of nearly 34percentcomparedwith the decreased to170homes, adeclineof period, totalsalesinthecurrent of

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

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Wood, LLC, duringthe12months national rate. AccordingtoHanley and much lower thanthe 7.8-percent lower thanthe5.8-percentstate rate recorded inMay 2010.Thisrateis unchanged fromthe2.6-percentrate REO (Real EstateOwned),relatively days delinquent,inforeclosure, orin loans intheHMAwere 90ormore mortgage in May 2011,2.5percentof According toLPSAppliedAnalytics, 27 percentfrompricesayear earlier. was $193,700,down approximately the mediansalespricefornew homes May 2010.Duringthesameperiod, the number of single-family home the number of and Spring Townships. Figure 7 shows cluding College, Ferguson, Patton, several townships, surrounding in­ State College and the Boroughof isconcentrated mainly in struction 2007 through2009.New homecon­ to an average annual level 440 from of single-family homes permitted dropped 2007,thenumber of the beginningof ally. Asthesalesmarketsoftenedin 720 new homeswas annu permitted approximately2006, anaverage of 12-month period.From 2000through duringtheprevioushomes permitted to 150homes, comparedwith190 declined21percent, homes permitted single-family 2011, thenumber of during the12monthsendingMay slowed. According to preliminary data, family issued,has buildingpermits single- measured bythenumber of activity,new homeconstruction as adeclineinhomesales, As aresultof period. 9 percent during the previous 12-month and detachedhomesales, upfrom 12 percent new of and existing attached and REOhomesaccountedfornearly foreclosed ending May 2011,salesof -

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State Colleg e , PA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 7 Sales Market Housing Market Trends Source: Estimatesbyanalyst the forecastdemand.Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding. the estimated 4,750 other vacant units in the HMA will likely satisfy some of fied by the 50 homes currently under construction. In addition, a portion of Notes: Excludes mobile homes. Some of the estimated demand will be satis Table 4. by analyst Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estimates Figure 8. 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 0 650,000 550,000 450,000 350,000 250,000 150,000 Continued From

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateSales to June1,2014 Housing intheStateCollegeHMA,June1,2011

Price Range($) 2000 toCurrent Rental Vacancy RatesintheStateCollegeHMA, 2000 3.7 and higher 649,999 549,999 449,999 349,999 249,999 To homes andtownhomes. dateandincludesdetached current issuedfrom2000tothe permits for aone-bedroomunit,$2,300 rents, asMay of 2011, averaging $1,300 are fora1-year period witheffective off-campus housingleaseagreements to local sources, most student-oriented, students residecampus. off According approximately 30,000University Park in off-campusresidences. Currently, PSUstudentsresiding the number of decade andaredriven primarily by been historically tightover thepast Figure 8).Rental vacancy rateshave rate recordedbythe2009ACS (see Census butlower thanthe2.8-percent inthe2010 2.3-percent ratereported 2.5 percent,slightly higherthanthe an overall vacancy rateestimatedat State College HMAistight,with The rentalhousingmarketinthe Rental Market 2010 2.3 Demand Units of 150 390 460 310 150 75 Current 2.5 Percent of Total 10.0 25.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 5.0 -

cast demand. thefore­ market andsatisfysomeof are likely toenterthesaleshousing the estimated4,750othervacant units $550,000 (seeTable of 4).Aportion for unitspricedbetween $250,000and Demand isexpected tobestrongest thedemand. of will meetaportion homes currently underconstruction theforecastperiod.The50 years of increase duringthesecondandthird during thefirstyear butisexpected to forecast period. Demand will be modest homes intheHMAduring3-year homes andanadditional100mobile Demand isestimatedfor1,550new located indowntown StateCollege mar Plaza,amixed-use develop­ around downtown StateCollege. Jera ­ing studentswere completedinand Since 2008, 100 apartment units target- both condominiumsandapartments. for dateandincludespermits current mitted intheHMAfrom2000to multifamily unitsper ­ the number of averaged 95 annually. Figure 9 illustrates number multifamily of units permitted 2003. From 2004through2009,the during than the210unitspermitted through 2002andissignificantly less annuallyunits permitted from2000 is slightly 100 lessthantheaverage of activity construction levelcurrent of period, based on preliminary data. The permitted during the previous 12-month May 2011comparedwith30units mitted duringthe12monthsending increasedto85unitsper­ permitted, multifamily units by thenumber of Multifamily construction, as measured than rentsduringMay 2010. a three-bedroomunit,slightly higher two-bedroom unit,and$2,700for ment

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State Colleg e , PA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 8 Rental Market Housing Market Trends Source: Estimatesbyanalyst totals becauseofrounding. the estimated4,750othervacantunitsinHMA willlikelysatisfysomeoftheforecastdemand.Numbersmaynotaddto Notes: Someoftheestimateddemandwillbesatisfiedby70unitscurrentlyunderconstruction.Inaddition,aportion Source: U.S.CensusBureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey Includes datathroughMay2011. Notes: Includesallmultifamilyunitsinstructureswithtwoormoreunits. Table 5. Figure 9. 100 150 200 250 50 0 Monthly Gross Total 2,050 ormore 1,850 to2,049 1,650 to1,849 1,450 to1,649 1,250 to1,449

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateRentalHousingintheStateCollegeHMA, June 1,2011to2014 2000 Multifamily BuildingPermitsIssuedintheState College HMA,2000to2011 Continued Rent ($) One Bedroom 2001

2002 Demand Units of 2003 85 10 15 25 20 15

2004 with average asking rents of $1,360 with average askingrentsof 65units vember 2008andconsistsof State College, was completedinNo­ Palmerton, alsolocatedindowntown $2,380, was completedin2009.The units withanaverage askingrent of 12two-bedroom and consistingof

2005

2006 Monthly Gross Total 3,000 ormore 2,800 to2,999 2,600 to2,799 2,400 to2,599 2,200 to2,399 2,000 to2,199 2007 Rent ($) Two Bedrooms 2008

2009 Demand Units of 2010 165 10 25 40 55 25 10

2011 first year. Table 5shows demandby thisdemandinthe of meet aportion will currently underconstruction HMA. Theapproximately 70units new market-raterentalunitsinthe period, demandisestimatedfor340 2011.Duringthe3-year forecast of due to be completed in the late summer and Foxdale Village is adding 57 units, to be completed in the summer 2011, of Pleasant Gapisadding14units, due communities.apartment TheOaksat 2senior related totheexpansion of intheHMA,all under construction 70 multifamily unitsarecurrently a two-bedroom unit.Approximately for a one-bedroom unit and $2,720 for number of bedroomsand rentlevel. number of Monthly Gross Total 4,000 ormore 3,800 to3,999 3,600 to3,799 3,400 to3,599 3,200 to3,399 3,000 to3,199 Three orMore Bedrooms Rent ($) Demand Units of 100 10 20 30 20 10 10

State Colleg e , PA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 9 Data Profile Table DP-1. Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment;estimatesbyanalyst incomes arefor1999,2009,and2011. Notes: Employmentdatarepresentannualaveragesfor2000,2010,andthe12monthsthroughMay2011.Medianfamily Median FamilyIncome Rental Vacancy Rate Owner Vacancy Rate Total HousingUnits Percent Renter Renter Households Percent Owner Owner Households Total Households Total Population Nonfarm Payroll Jobs Unemployment Rate Total ResidentEmployment State CollegeHMADataProfile, 2000toCurrent

$44,200 135,758 53,161 19,645 29,678 49,323 69,700 66,041 39.8% 60.2% 2000 3.7% 1.2% 3.5% $66,300 153,990 63,297 23,857 33,716 57,573 74,200 70,390 41.4% 58.6% 2010 2.3% 1.6% 6.2% $67,300 154,500 Current 63,500 23,900 33,700 57,600 74,350 70,550 41.5% 58.5% 2.5% 1.5% 5.7%

2000 to2010 Average AnnualChange(%) 4.1 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.6 2010 toCurrent 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 State Colleg e , PA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 10 11.pdf publications/pdf/CMARtables_StateCollegePA_ market forthisHMA,goto For tothehousing additionaldatapertaining Census Bureau. specifiedas“other”vacantthe category bythe workersmigrant andincludesunitsthatfallinto seasonal, recreationaloroccasionaluseby units rentedorsoldbutnotoccupied,heldfor thereforeincludes sale orforrent.Theterm include vacant unitsthatarenotavailable for Other Vacant Units:InHUD’s analysis, these the development pipeline. orunitsin for unitscurrently underconstruction excess vacancies. Theestimatesdonotaccount theanalysis, growth, losses, and dateof the as-of the3-year forecastperiodgiven conditionson of needed toachieve abalancedmarketattheend thetotalhousing production the estimatesof buildingactivity.are notaforecastof Theyare Demand: Thedemandestimatesintheanalysis estimates Forecast period:6/1/2011–6/1/2014—Analyst’s date:6/1/2011—Analyst’sCurrent estimates 2010: 4/1/2010—U.S. DecennialCensus 2000: 4/1/2000—U.S. DecennialCensus Data DefinitionsandSources . www.huduser.org/publications/econdev/mkt_analysis.html For on othermarketareas, additionalreports pleasego to www.huduser.org/

may beunderconsiderationbytheDepartment. insuranceproposalsthat anymortgage of acceptability regardingthe tomakedeterminations does notpurport local housingmarketconditionsandtrends. Theanalysis ful tobuilders, mortgagees, with andothers concerned findings,information, andconclusionsmay alsobeuse Development (HUD)initsoperations. Thefactual theU.S. HousingandUrban guidance of of Department This analysis fortheassistanceand hasbeenprepared [email protected] 215–430–6677 Philadelphia HUDRegional Office Timothy McNally, Economist Contact Information conditions. onlocaleconomicandhousing market and information state andlocalgovernment officials whoprovided data sources and expresses itsappreciation tothoseindustry may bemodifiedbysubsequentdevelopments. HUD national sources. Assuch,findingsorconclusions datefromlocaland availableinformation ontheas-of aspossiblebased on are asthoroughandcurrent and MarketAnalysis Division. Theanalysis andfindings guidelines andmethodsdeveloped byHUD’s Economic The factualframework forthisanalysis follows the . -