Wokingham Modelling Local Plan Update Transport Assessment Report Final.Docx Transport Assessment Report Wokingham Local Plan Update

Wokingham Local Plan Update Transport Assessment Report

On behalf of Wokingham Borough Council

Project Ref: 46807/5502 | Rev: AA | Date: February 2020

Registered Office: Buckingham Court Kingsmead Business Park, London Road, High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire, HP11 1JU Office Address: Caversham Bridge House, Waterman Place, Reading, Berkshire RG1 8DN T: +44 (0)118 950 0761 E: [email protected] Transport Assessment Report Wokingham Local Plan Update

Document Control Sheet

Project Name: Wokingham Local Plan Update – Transport Modelling Project Ref: 46807/5502 Report Title: Model Forecasting Report Doc Ref: MFR Date: February 2020

Name Position Signature Date

Transport K Bell/E Prepared by: Planner/Transport KB/ EP 24/01/2020 Papathanasiadis Modeller Principal Transport N Moyo NM 24/01/2020 Reviewed by: Planner P Gebbett Senior Associate PG/PB Approved by: 24/01/2020

P Brady Director

For and on behalf of Stantec UK Limited

Revision Date Description Prepared Reviewed Approved

February A Final KB/EP NM PG/PB 2020

This report has been prepared by Stantec UK Limited (‘Stantec’) on behalf of its client to whom this report is addressed (‘Client’) in connection with the project described in this report and takes into account the Client's particular instructions and requirements. This report was prepared in accordance with the professional services appointment under which Stantec was appointed by its Client. This report is not intended for and should not be relied on by any third party (i.e. parties other than the Client). Stantec accepts no duty or responsibility (including in negligence) to any party other than the Client and disclaims all liability of any nature whatsoever to any such party in respect of this report.

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Contents

Executive Summary ...... 7 1 Introduction ...... 16 1.1 Overview ...... 16 1.2 Local Plan ...... 16 1.3 Grazeley Garden Settlement ...... 16 1.4 Modelled Scenarios ...... 17 1.5 Report Structure ...... 17 2 The Transport Model ...... 18 2.1 Introduction ...... 18 2.2 Overview of the model ...... 18 3 Forecasting Methodology ...... 21 3.1 Introduction ...... 21 3.2 Development of Reference Case Forecasts ...... 21 3.3 Grazeley Garden Settlement ...... 22 3.4 Neighbouring Authorities ...... 23 3.5 Application of Trip Rates for Developments ...... 24 3.6 Committed Developments ...... 26 3.7 National Trip End Model and Background Growth ...... 28 3.8 Reference Case Network Assumptions ...... 29 4 Scenario A and B Results ...... 31 4.1 Introduction ...... 31 4.2 Pre and Post VDM Matrix Changes ...... 31 4.3 Volume Capacity Ratios ...... 32 4.4 Summary of Reference Case Performance in Wokingham ...... 33 5 Local Plan Development Scenario C ...... 39 5.1 Introduction ...... 39 5.2 Scenario C ...... 39 6 Scenario C Results ...... 43 6.1 Introduction ...... 43 6.2 Highway Demand ...... 43 6.3 Delays 45 6.4 Volume Capacity Ratios ...... 45 6.5 Flow Difference ...... 50 6.6 Summary of Scenario C Performance in Wokingham Boundary ...... 50 6.7 Impact of Local Plan Update on Neighbouring Authorities ...... 52 6.8 Impact on the Strategic Road Network (SRN) ...... 52 7 Summary ...... 53 7.1 Conclusion ...... 53

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Figures

Figure 1: New Local Plan Tested Sites ...... 9 Figure 3-1: Grazeley Garden Settlement – Development Locations - Scenario A ...... 22 Figure 3-2: Grazeley Garden Settlement – Development Locations - Scenario B ...... 23 Figure 3-3: Location of Reference Case Developments ...... 27 Figure 3-4: Committed Schemes Locations ...... 30 Figure 5-1: Development Sites for Scenario C1, C2 and C3 ...... 39 Figure 5-2: Development Sites for Scenario C4 ...... 40

Tables

Table 1: New Local Plan Sites ...... 12 Table 3-1: Car and LGV Trip Rates ...... 24 Table 3-2: HGV Trip Rates ...... 25 Table 3-3: Total Dwellings and Employment (sqm) by Area - Reference Case forecasts ...... 26 Table 3-4: DfT Road Traffic Forecasts (2018 RTF) (2015 – 2036) ...... 29 Table 3- 5: Complete and Committed Schemes Included in Model ...... 29 Table 4-1: Scenario A Pre and Post VDM Matrix Changes - Highway and PT Trips ...... 31 Table 4-2: Scenario B Pre and Post VDM Matrix Changes - Highway and PT Trips ...... 32 Table 4-3: Junctions with High V/C – Scenario A and B - AM Peak ...... 33 Table 4-4: Junctions with High V/C Scenario A and B - PM Peak ...... 35 Table 5-1: Development Sites for Scenario C ...... 41 Table 6-1: Scenario C1 Highway Demand Matrices ...... 43 Table 6-2: Scenario C2 Highway Demand Matrices ...... 43 Table 6-3: Scenario C3 Highway Demand Matrices ...... 44 Table 6-4: Scenario C3 Highway Demand Matrices ...... 44 Table 6-5: Worst performing junctions in Scenario C Tests - AM Peak ...... 46 Table 6-6: Worst performing Junctions in Scenario C Tests - PM Peak ...... 48 Table 6-7: Overcapacity Junctions with LPU slightly worse than Reference Case...... 51 Table B-1 TEMPro unadjusted and adjusted factors AM time period for a Car Driver (2015 – 2036) .. 62 Table B-2 TEMPro unadjusted and adjusted factors in the Interpeak time period for a Car Driver (2015 – 2036) ...... 63 Table C-1 Demand - Supply Convergence for Scenarios A and B ...... 67 Table C-2 Scenario A Highway Convergence Statistics ...... 67 Table C-3 Scenario B Highway Convergence Statistics ...... 68 Table C-4 Scenario A Pre and Post VDM Matrix Changes - Highway and PT Trips ...... 69 Table C-5 Scenario B Pre and Post VDM Matrix Changes - Highway and PT Trips ...... 69 Table D-1 Scenario C1 Highway Convergence Statistics ...... 71 Table D-2 Scenario C2 Highway Convergence Statistics ...... 71 Table D-3 Scenario C3 Highway Convergence Statistics ...... 72 Table D-4 Scenario C4 Highway Convergence Statistics ...... 72

Appendices

Appendix A Development in Reference Case Appendix B TEMPro Growth Factors 2015 to 2036 Appendix C Reference Case Scenarios A and B Convergence Outputs Appendix D Scenario C Convergence Outputs

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Appendix E Maps of Maximum Volume Capacity Ratios in Wokingham Boundary for AM Peak Period Appendix F Maps of Maximum Volume Capacity Ratios in Wokingham Boundary for PM Peak Period Appendix G Maximum V/C Overview of Model Area Appendix H Flow Difference Maps Appendix I Delay Difference Maps

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Executive Summary

Introduction

Stantec, has been commissioned by Wokingham Borough Council (WBC) to undertake transport modelling and assessment to inform the preparation of the Wokingham Local Plan Update (LPU) with a horizon to 2036. The LPU will replace the existing Core Strategy (2010) and Managing Development Delivery Local Plan, and will put in place an updated spatial strategy and set of planning policies to manage development up to the year 2036.

The council is working towards a public consultation on a Draft LPU and is therefore preparing the evidence to support the spatial strategy and development management policies.

A key part of this evidence is understanding the transport impacts of proposed growth and how these impacts might be mitigated.

The Transport Modelling Tool

For the purpose of informing this LPU, strategic computer modelling has been used to analyse the complex transport patterns that already take place within the borough on the highway network as well as analyse the transport impacts of LPU development options. The council maintains a strategic transport model known as the Wokingham Strategic Transport Model 4 (WSTM4). Model outputs will be used to underpin the transport evidence base to inform the LPU.

The first step in developing the model was to produce a tool which provides a representation of observed travel conditions for a base year, which in the case of WSTM4, is 2015. The base year model was produced by WSP, associated documents are referenced below and can be located on the Council’s website.

Once a model is demonstrated to be representative of the base year conditions it can then be used to forecast predicted traffic conditions in future years, through the development of future year or forecast models. To demonstrate the suitability of a model, the development process and outputs utilise guidance provided by the Department of Transport, known as Transport Analysis Guidance1. A technical report known as a Local Model Validation Report (LMVR)2 has been produced by WSP, and sets out the processes and results that demonstrate the base model as a suitable tool from which to develop future forecasts and to understand the highway impacts of proposed LPU developments.

An addendum3 to the LMVR4 that reported on the Variable Demand Model (VDM) component of the base year was also produced by WSP. VDM gives the WSTM4 the capability to represent travel behavioural responses other than route choice alone.

Trip frequency (how often people travel), mode choice and trip distribution (where people travel to) are the travel responses represented by the VDM component of the WSTM4. VDM has been applied to the forecast year scenarios without the proposed LPU scenarios. These scenarios represent baseline future scenarios, also termed the Reference Case in this report, against which the proposed local plan development’s impact can be compared.

Applying VDM to the Reference Case scenarios was considered appropriate in order to develop baseline forecast demands that were more consistent with the constraining effects of network capacity. Without VDM, the baseline would likely exhibit unrealistic congestion in the baseline scenarios leading to model outputs such as excessive delays and routeing choices that may not be

1 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/transport-analysis-guidance-webtag 2 Wokingham Strategic Transport Model 4 (WSTM4) – Local Model Validation Report, May 2018 3 Wokingham Strategic Transport Model 4 (WSTM4) – Local Model Validation Report Addendum, December 2018 4 https://www.wokingham.gov.uk/planning-policy/planning-policy-information/evidence-topics/

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plausible. Given the dispersed nature of the development clusters proposed in the LPU, it was considered that applying VDM to the ‘with development’ plan scenarios would not be proportionate nor would it provide added value to the outputs of the modelling because there would likely be little change to the model demands with the LPU in place as a result of VDM.

Models have been developed to represent an average weekday AM peak hour (08:00 – 09:00), Inter peak hour (average of 10:00 – 16:00) and PM peak hour (17:00 – 18:00) in a neutral month during school term time. The model will represent a view of movements through the local network for these periods and cars, light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles are represented separately. The area covered by the model is split into a number of zones. The zones are smaller in the main area of interest (in the case Wokingham borough and the immediate surrounding area) and get larger the further away you go. Each vehicle represented within the model will start (have an origin) within one zone and finish (have a destination) within another zone.

Stantec have used the base year model, to then produce future year models to investigate travel patterns in and around the Wokingham area. This includes taking account of commitments in the existing local plan of Wokingham and surrounding authorities as well as a range of potential LPU development scenarios . The impacts of proposed growth are likely to be more pronounced in the more congested AM and PM peak periods, hence the modelling analysis has concentrated on and reported impacts in these periods.

Grazeley Garden Settlement

The potential for a Grazeley Garden Settlement is being progressed jointly by Wokingham Borough Council, West Berkshire Council and Reading Council . Grazeley Garden Settlement has the potential to provide a mixed use settlement of up to 15,000 new homes with employment, community uses, and open space. It is expected that 10,000 homes would be inside Wokingham Borough Council’s boundaries and cover a major part of the council’s housing needs until 2036. It has recently been part of a Housing Infrastructure Funding (HIF) bid by Wokingham Borough Council, along with West Berkshire and Reading councils.

A substantial amount of work has already been undertaken to assess and model the impact of the Garden Settlement at Grazeley. Masterplanning work on Grazeley and a number of other larger sites has suggested that Grazeley could provide the most viable strategic scale development option to accommodate a large proportion of housing need in Wokingham and beyond.

Further modelling needs to be undertaken to understand the cumulative impacts of Grazeley and further site allocations to inform the local plan update evidence base. Within the LPU modelling, Grazeley has been assumed within the Reference Case due to the unique opportunities it presents for a sustainable and carbon neutral development as compared to other spatial strategy options.. It is the baseline scenario against which future LPU scenarios have been compared.

Adopted Local Plan

The Wokingham Local Plan (2006 – 2026), adopted in January 2010, set out an overarching framework for the future of the plan area to 2026 and comprises a long-term spatial vision, strategic objectives and spatial strategy. It also contained strategies for the settlement hubs and strategic and local development management policies, along with a monitoring framework.

The adopted Local Plan made provision to deliver a minimum of 13,230 homes over the period 2006 – 2026 equating to an average delivery of approximately 660 homes per year. An element of this housing was already identified through outstanding planning permissions with allowance also made for ‘windfall’ housing, likely to come forward in small developments of less than 6 dwellings. The majority of provision would be met through around 10,000 homes, at 4 Strategic Development Locations (SDLs) with associated infrastructure:

 Arborfield Garrison (CP18) – 3,500 homes;

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 South of M4 (CP19) – 2,500 homes

 North Wokingham (CP20) – 1,500 homes; and

 South Wokingham (CP21) – 2,500 homes.

The large scale of these developments allowed for big ticket infrastructure to be planned and delivered alongside and the new roads have all been captured in the model.

The Managing Development Delivery Local Plan (MDD) allocated further sites for development. Approximately 1,000 dwellings were allocated for development as carried forward from the Wokingham District Local Plan; 840 dwellings allocated at major and modest development locations; and 135 dwellings allocated on reserve sites, envisaged to come forward post 2026.

Local Plan Update (LPU)

In addition to the sites provided for in the adopted Wokingham Local Plan 2006-2026, focussed largely on the strategic development locations, a number of further development locations or clusters, are being considered. Combined with updated information about the development pipeline, (to include windfalls and greenfield sites not specifically provided for in the adopted Local Plan) these are the subject of this transport study. Figure 1 illustrates the location of the sites included in the LPU. The LPU will set out planning policies to manage development until up to the year 2036.

One of the key reasons for needing the LPU is that the Government has recently updated the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and the supporting guidance. This includes a new, standard approach for calculating the number of homes each local authority must plan for.

Figure 1: New Local Plan proposed allocations

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Neighbouring Councils

Neighbouring local authorities to Wokingham Borough are also in the process of producing new local plans. National planning policy requires cross boundary cooperation to share as much information as possible to reach agreements on strategic matters. Local authorities where impacts will need to be considered include Bracknell Forest Council (BFC), Reading Borough Council (RBC), West Berkshire District Council (WBDC), Hart District Council (HDC) and Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead (RBWM). There may also be other local authorities that are not immediately adjacent to Wokingham, but are important to engage with given strategic issues, for example due to the Strategic Road Network extending into wider areas and commuting patterns.

Neighbouring authorities, namely Basingstoke and Dean Borough Council (BDDC), Bracknell Forest Council (BFC), Hart District Council (HDC), Reading Borough Council (RBC), West Berkshire District Council (WBDC), Wycombe District Council (WDC), Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead (RBWM) and South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse District Council (SOVWHDC), were contacted and their local plan and proposed mitigation elements, where known, have been included in this assessment within the Reference Cases. Development plans from these authorities were used to inform the uncertainty log and hence the Reference Case scenarios. This report does not at this time define cross boundary contributions associated with projected highway impact. This would be the subject of a further review.

Scenarios Tested

The report details the forecasting assumptions and processes used to develop the 2036 Reference Case (Scenarios A and B) which include part of the Grazeley Garden Settlement, but without the rest of the potential development allocations. The Reference Case includes committed development and adopted Local Plan development sites. It also includes projected background growth applied by way of National Trip End Model (NTEM) and Trip End Model Presentation Program (TEMPRO) growth determined using TEMPRO’s alternative assumption facility.

The only difference between Scenario A and B is the number of dwellings allocated at the Grazeley Garden Settlement. Both Scenarios have 7,000 allocated at the Grazeley Garden Settlement, they differentiate as follows:

 Scenario A – all 7,000 dwellings allocated at the Grazeley Garden Settlement are inside the Wokingham Borough Council boundaries; and

 Scenario B – 5,000 dwellings allocated at the Grazeley Garden Settlement are inside the Wokingham Borough Council boundaries and 2,000 dwellings are allocated at the West Berkshire Council boundaries.

The 7,000 dwellings are based on a hypothetical build out rate that is considered to be roughly the maximum that might be achievable in the plan period. It is acknowledged that the LPU itself assumes a more cautious build out of 3,750 in the plan period.

The NTEM dataset represents the Department for Transport’s (DfT) standard assumptions about growth in travel demand expressed in units of trip ends. The TEMPro software is used to view and analyse NTEM data. The use of NTEM is a standard approach, based on growth predictions produced by Department for Transport which reflects forecast growth in housing and employment at a District/Borough level.

The alternative assumptions facility in TEMPro, is used to adjust NTEM trip ends to exclude committed and proposed strategic development sites for which the trip ends will be calculated separately and explicitly ‘point loaded’ in the transport model area. This process avoids any double counting of trips associated with specific sites and the growth included within NTEM.

Committed developments and highway infrastructure from neighbouring authorities have also been included in the 2036 Reference Case models (Scenarios A and B). All development that has been

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included was compiled from information provided by the neighbouring authorities either directly or by way of their publicly available published development plans online. This information was then collated and compiled by Stantec to produce a record of development and infrastructure assumptions used to inform the Reference Case models.

In addition to the Reference Case Scenarios A and B, The Council required that potential LPU scenarios (collectively identified as Scenario C) be tested. It was specified within the brief that Scenario C be based on Scenario B to include additional development cluster sites around the borough which are located outside Grazeley. The outputs for Scenario A and B are very similar, therefore utilising just Scenario B is a proportionate approach.

Four Scenario C variations were tested and are termed Scenarios C1, C2, C3 and C4 in this report. Scenario B has therefore formed the 2036 Reference Case and hence the baseline against which the emerging Local Plan Scenarios C1, C2, C3 andC4 have been tested and compared.

The 2036 Reference Case models assume approximately an additional 54,000 dwellings coming forward within the study area in the period up to 2036, over and above those built by 2015. The study area extends beyond the Wokingham Local Plan area and includes neighbouring local authorities such as Slough Borough Council (SBC), West Berkshire Council (WBEC), Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council (BDDC), Bracknell Forest Council (BFC), Hart District Council (HDC), Reading Borough Council (RBC), Wycombe District Council (WDC), Royal Borough of Windsor & Maidenhead (RBWM) and South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse District Council (SOVWHDC).

Figure 2: Study Area

Following the creation of the 2036 Reference Case (baseline forecast, Scenario B), the Local Plan Scenario models were developed by adding the corresponding Local Plan development on top of the Reference Case demands.

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The list of Local Plan development scenarios assumed are summarised at the Table 1 below. Scenario 4 was tested after WBC had reviewed initial findings from Scenarios C1 to C3 and was able to refine more specific quanta and related assumptions for the scenario as separate site assessments and decision making progressed. Quanta specific to Scenario 4 where applicable, can also be seen in Table 1 alongside Scenarios C1 to C3 assumptions. In all scenarios, a tick (✓) indicates proposed LPU sites included in that particular scenario, while a cross (x) indicates sites excluded from the scenario.

Table 1: New Local Plan Sites Capacity Site Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario ID Proposed Use (dwellings or Reference C1 C2 C3 C4 sqm)

1 5SO001 Housing 25 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

2 5SO005 Housing 13 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

3 5SO008 Housing 25 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

✓ (85 4 5CV001 Housing 150 ✓ ✓ ✓ dwellings) ✓ (75 5 5CV002 Housing 160 ✓ ✓ ✓ dwellings) 5TW005/0 6 Housing 150 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 09/010 5TW007/0 Housing and 7 220/3,716 ✓ ✓ ✓ x 11 Employment 5RU007 & 8 Housing 20 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 008 5HU002 & 9 Housing 15 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 030 ✓ (250 dwellings & 150 5WI004/00 10 Housing 250 ✓ ✓ ✓ place 6/010 school – special needs)

11 5WI008 Housing 20 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

✓ (35 12 5WI009 Housing 40 ✓ ✓ ✓ dwellings) ✓ (24 13 5WI011 Housing 25 ✓ ✓ ✓ dwellings) ✓ (750 on 14 5BA010 Housing 500 ✓ ✓ Scenario x C3) Housing and 15 5BA012 140/2,646 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Employment

16 5BA018 Housing 50 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

17 5FI003 Housing 81 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

18 5FI004 Housing 70 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

19 5FI028 Housing 12 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

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Capacity Site Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario ID Proposed Use (dwellings or Reference C1 C2 C3 C4 sqm)

20 5WK037 Housing 216 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

✓ (100 21 Toutley Housing 160 x ✓ ✓ dwellings)

22 5WK002 Housing 150 x ✓ ✓ ✓

Wokingha ✓ (100 23 m Town Housing 150 x ✓ ✓ dwellings) Centre

24 5SH019 Housing 55 x ✓ ✓ x

Ruscombe 25 Housing 75 x x ✓ x BP Bridge 26 Housing 100 x x ✓ x Park

27 5WK028 Housing 500 x x ✓ x

5SH023/2 28 Housing 180 x x ✓ x 6/27

29 5SH050 Employment 20360 x x ✓ ✓

2,000 / 2,000 / 30 5AR024 Employment x x ✓ x 1,000 5BA013 Housing 31 15 x x x ✓

5FI001 Housing 32 5 x x x ✓

5FI015 Housing 33 4 x x x ✓

5FI024 Housing 34 15 x x x ✓

5SH011 Housing 35 5 x x x ✓

5SH020 Employment (already As per As per As per As per Additional includes adopted local adopted local adopted adopted adopted 19,340 plan 55,000 sqm B1 plan local plan local plan local plan sqm 36 and ancillary uses in compared Reference Case to adopted local plan 5SH031 Housing 37 10 x x x ✓

5WK006 Housing 38 17 x x x ✓

5WK012 Housing 39 9 x x x ✓

5WK029 Housing 40 92 x x x ✓

For each of the land uses, the industry standard Trip Rate Information Computer System (TRICS) has been used to derive the number of trips generated by the specific development. The geographical categorisation used within TRICS has been used to inform the trip rates for the different locations of

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the Local Plan development sites, recognising that different locations are likely to generate different levels of traffic. This is an industry wide software see link below5

Analysis of Impacts

The results of the forecast scenarios were analysed to understand the impact of the LPU proposals when compared to the Reference Case Scenario B. The model outputs include identification of congestion hotspots identified through the use of the Volume to Capacity (V/C) ratio. The V/C ratio is a measure of congestion which compares flows against capacity. A V/C ratio of 0.85 is commonly considered to be the threshold at which congested conditions become evident leading to increased queues, delays and general poor level of service. A V/C of 1.00 indicates that a specific arm of a junction is operating at capacity.

Key junctions were identified as requiring potential intervention through an assessment of those junctions with high volume to capacity ratios (V/C). The following thresholds were assumed in the analysis:

 V/C < 0.85 (acceptable level of performance, not included);

 0.85 < V/C < 0.9 (colour coded yellow);

 0.9 < V/C < 1 (colour coded orange); and

 V/C > 1 (colour coded red).

The outputs of these model runs have been double-checked to ensure that they are robust and meet accepted industry standards and can be relied upon to understand the impacts of the emerging Local Plan.

Other performance measures used in the analysis include delays and flow changes.

Conclusion

The results indicate that there was little difference in the performance of the Reference Case Scenarios A and B and hence conclusions drawn from comparing the Scenario C LPU impacts against Scenario B, would be equally valid if the comparison were based on Scenario A as Reference Case. This was more so when considering the V/C ratio outputs.

The results also indicate that there were a number of junctions within the borough, that experience high V/C ratios greater than 0.85 in the Reference Cases Scenarios A and B and hence are experiencing congested conditions.

The impacts of the LPU were made by comparison against Scenario B and these generally showed that the LPU development proposals did not result in significant deterioration in network performance at a strategic level. In the main, outputs such as V/C ratio in the Scenario C options, were of similar order of magnitude to their equivalent Reference Case Scenario B. The results did not identify any obvious need for strategic mitigation as a result of the proposed LPU development clusters.

The analysis considered impacts on junctions inside Wokingham Borough Council boundaries and in Neighbouring Local Authorities and the results across both geographies largely indicated similar trends, i.e. no obvious standout differences in performance between the with LPU Scenario C and the Reference Case.

In summary, the key findings are that:

5 http://www.trics.org/

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 The emerging Local Plan transport study evidence base has followed best practice to update the WSTM4 model, develop future forecasts and undertake testing in order to understand the network impacts of the potential development scenarios considered for the LPU to 2036;

 In the baseline scenario (Scenario B and Scenario A), a number of junctions already experience capacity issues. With the proposed development LPU scenario without mitigation, the order of magnitude of the V/C ratios were largely comparable with and without the LPU;

 When compared to the Reference Case, the wider impacts of Scenarios C1, C2, C3 and C4 are shown to be small. This has mainly been evident from the small changes in Volume to Capacity ratios (VC) of each of the LPU Scenarios C1 to C4 when compared to those of the Reference Case. This means that the modelling has not identified a need for strategic schemes to mitigate the impacts of the LPU beyond those already programmed into the model associated with the committed SDLs

 It is considered that mitigation measures will have to be considered at a localised level when transport assessments or planning applications are submitted for specific developments at that time. It is noted that strategic infrastructure already proposed as part of the adopted local plan are still valid and appear to be adequate to accommodate the demands placed by the proposed LPU Scenario C developments.

 This report has therefore not undertaken strategic modelling for Scenario D (i.e. effectively Scenario C plus transport interventions). Identification and individual junction assessments of proposed mitigation will be undertaken outside the strategic model given the localised nature of the impacts of the proposed LPU developments.

 The modelling indicates that some nodes at M4 Junction 11 are shown to be slightly worse than the Reference Case with the LPU in place. This is the case in the AM peak only.

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1 Introduction

1.1 Overview

1.1.1 Stantec, has been commissioned to undertake strategic transport modelling and assessment for Wokingham Borough Council (WBC) to understand the impact of planned future housing and employment growth, on the highway network. The outputs will be used as part of the evidence base in preparation of the LPU. This Transport Assessment will create an understanding of the impact of the planned growth and identify a mitigation strategy if applicable.

1.1.2 For the purpose of the transport modelling assessment, computer modelling software has been used to understand transport patterns in the area.

1.1.3 The purpose of this report is to discuss the methodology and results of the development scenario testing to help inform WBC’s LPU. The report also forms part of the transport evidence base to support the LPU.

1.2 Local Plan

1.2.1 Currently WBC is undertaking a review of the adopted development plan policy. Currently both the Core Strategy Local Plan and the Managing Development Delivery look forward to 2026. WBC are currently preparing an update which will put in place the spatial strategy and planning policies until 2036.

1.2.2 To support the preparation of the Local Plan, a number of scenarios are to be tested to assess the impact of local growth. This will then identify any implications of development on certain sites and consequently ascertain which sites are suitable for allocation and any works that are necessary to mitigate.

1.3 Grazeley Garden Settlement

1.3.1 Work has been undertaken to assess and model the impact of a Garden Settlement at Grazeley as part of a joint bid to the Government’s Housing Infrastructure Funding (HIF) by Wokingham Borough Council, along with West Berkshire and Reading councils. The HIF bid seeks £252 million infrastructure funding to help put in place key infrastructure in advance of housing, in accordance with the wishes of residents.

1.3.2 The potential for a Grazeley Garden Settlement has been progressed jointly by the authorities over a number of years. Grazeley Garden Settlement has the potential to provide a sustainable mixed use settlement of 15,000 new homes with employment, community uses, and open space. It is expected that 10,000 homes would be located within Wokingham Borough and cover a major part of the council’s housing needs until 2036.

1.3.3 Masterplanning work6 on Grazeley and a number of other larger sites has suggested that Grazeley could provide the most viable strategic scale development option to accommodate a large proportion of housing need in Wokingham and beyond. However, further modelling needs to be undertaken to understand the cumulative impacts of Grazeley and inform theLPU evidence base. It is expected that Grazeley will deliver 3,750 dwellings in the plan period, but for the purposes of the LPU has been modelled to be consistent with the assumptions made in the Homes and Infrastructure Funding (HIF) bid. The full capacity of Grazeley is expected to

6 Available on the Council’s website: https://www.wokingham.gov.uk/planning-policy/planning-policy- information/local-plan-update/

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be 15,000 dwellings, with the assumption for the bid being that 7,000 would be delivered by the end of the plan period.

1.3.4 For the purposes of the assessments reported here, the impacts are reported to demonstrate the situation over and above Grazeley which is assumed as the reference case due to the significant opportunities it presents.

1.4 Modelled Scenarios

1.4.1 This report discusses the scenarios which have tested and analysed using the WSTM4 model for the 2036 forecast year. This includes two future scenarios without the local plan proposals, and four scenarios with additional local plan growth added. These scenarios will be used to inform the impact of traffic growth from additional housing and employment up to 2036.

1.4.2 The following scenarios have been modelled and assessed:

 Scenario A includes all committed developments in the council’s existing development plan, additional sites with planning permission both within the borough and surrounding area, development proposed in neighbouring authorities’ emerging local plans, and 7,000 dwellings at Grazeley Garden Settlement located all within Wokingham. This is 3,250 above the expected number to be delivered within Wokingham by the end of the plan period. In terms of Grazeley this is a worse-case scenario.

 Scenario B is the same as Scenario A, with the exception of the 7,000 dwellings at Grazeley Garden Settlement of which 5,000 are located within Wokingham District and 2,000 dwellings within the West Berkshire District. The assumed dwellings within Wokingham part of Grazeley, is 1,250 greater than the expected build out by end of plan period.

 Scenario C includes additional development sites within Wokingham Borough associated with the LPU. A series of tests have been undertaken with different assumptions on site locations and quantum of development. These tests are labelled Scenario C1 to C4. The outputs from these tests are compared with the Scenario A and B tests to understand the impact of the additional growth.

1.4.3 Scenario A and B are known as Reference Case scenarios.

1.5 Report Structure

1.5.1 Following this introduction this report includes the following information:

Section 2 provides an overview of the Transport model;

Section 3 provides an overview of the forecast methodology;

Section 4 provides an overview of the Reference Case results for Scenarios A and B;

Section 5 reports on the LPU potential development clusters known as Scenario C;

Section 6 reports on the Scenario C results and compares them against Scenario B to understand the impacts of the LPU demands; and.

Section 7 summarises the study findings.

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2 The Transport Model

2.1 Introduction

2.1.1 The Wokingham Strategic Transport Model (WSTM4) has underpinned the transport modelling required to understand the impact of planned growth on the network. The WSTM47 was developed by WSP in 2016.

2.1.2 The purpose of the WSTM4 was for scheme and development assessments in Wokingham, negotiations with adjacent authorities, Highways England and Network Rail, assessing car parks management and re-development proposals in the borough and for the assessment of a new bridge across the River Thames east of the Reading and the development of the Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC)8.

2.1.3 WBC is currently undertaking a review of the Local Plan and the WSTM4 has been used to test the highway impacts of the development proposals. The model tests will help Wokingham Borough Council to prepare their new local plan which will put into place the updated spatial strategy and set out planning policies.

2.2 Overview of the model

2.2.1 The WSTM4 consists of a strategic highway and public transport (PT) assignment model. The whole model suite of the WSTM4 including the demand model, are coded using PTV VISUM software. The highway and PT assignment models interact with a demand model to represent variable demand modelling (VDM) in accordance with the Department for Transport’s (DfT) Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Unit M29.

2.2.2 TAG is the DfT web based good practice guidance for transport modelling and scheme appraisal. The guidance distinguishes between fixed trip assignment (FTM) and variable demand modelling. In FTM, it is assumed that network demand only responds to network conditions by changing routes, with no change to the demand or trips specified in the model usually by way of a trip matrix which describes the number of trips between origins and destinations.

2.2.3 In VDM, travellers can also respond through other behavioural mechanisms such as choosing not to travel, changing mode, changing the time at which they travel, change destination or change trip frequency amongst other responses. In the case of the WSTM4, the responses represented in addition to route choice are trip frequency, mode choice and trip distribution.

2.2.4 The highway model represents an average weekday (Monday to Thursday) and consists of three time periods as follows:

 AM peak hour representing hourly traffic conditions between 08:00 and 09:00;

 Inter peak average hour, representing average hourly traffic conditions between 10:00 and 16:00; and

 PM peak hour representing hourly traffic conditions between 17:00 and 18:00.

7 (https://www.wokingham.gov.uk/planning-policy/planning-policy-information/evidence-topics/) 8 Wokingham Strategic Transport Model 4 (WSTM4) Local Model Validation Report, WSP, May 2018 9 Variable Demand Modelling https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/805252/tag- unit-m2-variable-demand-modelling.pdf

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2.2.5 The highway model consists of five (5) user classes comprising of car commute, car employer/business, car other, Light Goods Vehicles (LGV) and Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV).

2.2.6 WSTM4 comprises a full demand model, which has separate highway and public transport assignment models that interact with each other under the control of the demand model.

2.2.7 TAG Unit M2 in relation to VDM, states that “any change to transport conditions will, in principle, cause a change in demand.”. The purpose of variable demand modelling is to predict and quantify these changes.

2.2.8 In keeping with TAG Unit M2, the Variable Demand Model (VDM) form is a nested hierarchical logit model and interacts with the supply or highway assignment model. This accounted for any suppression effects that might arise as a result of the constraints placed by network capacity on demands. It was developed to represent the following travel behavioural responses:

 Trip frequency;

 Mode choice;

 Trip distribution.

2.2.9 The WSTM4 highway and PT model was calibrated and validated using VISUM version 17.01.04. The demand model was coded and validated using VISUM 15.00.15. The documentation in support of the base model development, calibration and validation, including highway, PT and demand modelling was undertaken by and provided by WSP. The reports are listed below as follows:

 Wokingham Strategic Transport Model 4 (WSTM4) – Data Collection Report, March 2017; documents the data used in developing the WSTM4;

 Wokingham Strategic Transport Model 4 (WSTM4) – Local Model Validation Report, March 2017; - includes the processes used in developing the VDM with the WSTM4 modelling all done in VISUM 15;

 Wokingham Strategic Transport Model 4 (WSTM4) – Local Model Validation Report, May 2018; - This became necessary in order to overcome model convergence issues that were identified by WSP in their use of the model in (ii) above during future year testing. The base year assignment models were updated to VISUM 17;

 Wokingham Strategic Transport Model 4 (WSTM4) – Local Model Validation Report Addendum, December 2018; - This is an addendum to (iii) above in respect of the VDM including PT validation results and realism testing results. The VDM processes themselves are described in document (ii).

2.2.10 The reports mentioned above include further documentation of the base model calibration process, the variable demand modelling methodology process and the subsequent model validation results.

2.2.11 In general, the model achieves an acceptable level of validation in accordance to TAG. This includes highway model validation (meet at a guidance accepted level real conditions) and convergence (the seek for network stability), and convergence between the demand model and supply model as measured by % Gap (the difference between the costs along the chosen routes and those along the minimum cost routes, summed across the whole network, and expressed as a percentage of the minimum costs, usually known as 'Delta' or the ‘%GAP). In addition, the variable demand model (VDM) achieved the required realism testing elasticity values as specified in TAG Unit M2. The documents listed above, together document the

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processes and results that demonstrate that the WSTM4 is a suitable tool from which to develop future forecasts.

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3 Forecasting Methodology

3.1 Introduction

3.1.1 The potential highway network impacts of proposed LPU development were assessed using the WSTM4 model. Forecast year models representing a 2036 forecast year, the end of the emerging Local Plan period were created. Currently the local plan looks forwards to 2026 and WBC are preparing the new local plan which will be updated to the year 2036. In order to understand the impacts of future development proposals using the transport model, it was necessary to develop 2036 forecast models of the scenarios of interest. This section outlines the modelled scenarios and the forecasting methodology used to develop them.

3.1.2 The modelling has been undertaken for the following scenarios:

 Scenario A includes all committed developments in the council’s existing development plan, additional sites with planning permission, development proposed in neighbouring authorities’ emerging local plans, and 7,000 dwellings at Grazeley garden settlement all located within Wokingham.

 Scenario B includes all committed developments in the council’s existing development plan, additional sites with planning permission, development proposed in neighbouring authorities’ emerging local plans, and 7,000 dwellings at Grazeley Garden Settlement from which 5,000 are located within Wokingham District and 2,000 dwellings within the West Berkshire District.

 Scenario C is based on Scenario B but includes additional development sites within Wokingham Borough. These are split into four testing scenarios C1, C2, C3 and C4. Scenario C2 builds on additional development clusters from Scenario C1 and Scenario C3 builds on C1 and C2. A further Scenario C4 with its own specific development assumptions, comprising additional and/or removal of some developments, was formulated by WBC and also tested.

3.1.3 The purpose of the modelling is to determine the impact of the potential developments on the local highway network based on sets of forecasting assumptions.

3.1.4 It can be seen that Scenarios A and B represent a future including Grazeley but without the other LPU proposals in place. They can be viewed as Reference Case scenarios upon which the LPU proposals are added (other than Grazeley). They form baselines against which the impacts of the LPU Scenario C can be compared. As noted, Scenario C was based on Scenario B and hence in this work, Scenario B is the Reference Case against which the impacts of the local plan proposals have been compared.

3.2 Development of Reference Case Forecasts

3.2.1 WBC required that forecasts for the without LPU Scenarios A and B be created (also known as Reference Case scenarios in this reporting). The methodology of creating these reference case scenarios followed standard industry practice on forecasting including application to developing forecasts in the context of Local Plans. The approach broadly considered the following:

• Committed developments in the council’s existing development plan as well as additional sites with planning permission. This includes Strategic Development Locations (SDL) and their associated infrastructure in the current or adopted local plan;

• 7,000 dwellings at Grazeley Garden Settlement. Assumptions on Grazeley are further discussed in Section 3.3.

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• Development proposed in neighbouring authorities’ emerging local plans. The treatment of committed and other developments in the Reference Case scenarios is further discussed in Section 3.6.

• Application of background traffic growth factors derived from Department for Transport’s (DfT) National Trip End Model (NTEM) data. NTEM data was accessed using the Trip End Model Presentation Program (TEMPro).

• For the purposes of this work, the NTEM v7.2 dataset was used within TEMPro to derive the growth factors. The NTEM dataset was further adjusted by using the ‘alternative planning assumptions’ facility within TEMPro to avoid any potential for ‘double counting’ in the Reference Case Scenarios A and B. NTEM application is discussed further in Section 3.7.

3.2.2 In addition to the development proposals, the Reference Case scenarios also included committed infrastructure schemes within the study area as well as all planned schemes in the adopted local plan. Infrastructure schemes included any committed highway and public transport schemes.

3.2.3 In order to expedite the coding of infrastructure schemes in the Reference Case Scenarios, the 2026 forecast model network originally built by WSP was used a starting point as it contained the schemes in the adopted local plan. Further details on infrastructure assumptions can be found in Section 3.8.

3.3 Grazeley Garden Settlement

3.3.1 The modelling has assumed two different scenarios in terms of the Grazeley development included.

3.3.2 The difference between Scenarios A and B Grazeley assumptions is illustrated in Figure 3-1 and Figure 3-2. Within Scenario A, all 7,000 dwellings are located within the Wokingham District boundary. Within Scenario B, 5,000 of the dwellings are located within the Wokingham District Boundary and 2,000 located within the West Berkshire District boundary. Figure 3-1 shows the model zones which residential developments are located within for Scenario A and Figure 3-2 shows the model zones where the residential developments are located for Scenario B.

3.3.3 The zones utilised in Scenario A and B for Grazeley are based on the outline masterplan prepared to support the HIF Bid. They have been chosen to provide a site wide coverage to address the multiple developers within those areas, providing each an allocation in these scenarios. However, it should be noted that these zone loaders are not critical in terms of the strategic modelling they are simply utilised to allow trips from across the whole site to be distributed internally and externally, as such changes to these connectors would have no material impact on the current outputs.

Figure 3-1: Grazeley Garden Settlement – Development Locations - Scenario A

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Figure 3-2: Grazeley Garden Settlement – Development Locations - Scenario B

3.4 Neighbouring Authorities

3.4.1 Neighbouring local authorities to Wokingham Borough are also in the process of producing new local plans. National planning policy requires cross boundary cooperation to share as much information as possible to reach agreements on strategic matters. Local authorities where impacts will need to be considered include Bracknell Forest Council (BFC), Reading Borough Council (RBC), West Berkshire District Council (WBDC), Hart District Council (HDC) and Royal Borough of Windsor Maidenhead (RBWM). There may also be other local

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authorities that are not immediately adjacent to Wokingham, but are important to engage with given strategic issues, for example due to the Strategic Road Network extending into wider areas and commuting patterns.

3.4.2 Neighbouring authorities, namely Basingstoke and Dean Borough Council (BDDC), Bracknell Forest Council (BFC), Hart District Council (HDC), Reading Borough Council (RBC), West Berkshire District Council (WBDC), Wycombe District Council (WDC), Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead (RBWM) and South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse District Council (SOVWHDC), were contacted to provide details of commitments in their development plans.

3.4.3 Responses ranged from the provision of detailed list of development and/or infrastructure information, or referral to online documentation where their proposals were retrieved. Development plans from these authorities were used as appropriate to inform the development assumptions in the Reference Case scenarios.

3.5 Application of Trip Rates for Developments

3.5.1 In order to explicitly account for trips due to committed developments, appropriate trips rates were applied to the development quanta. These rates were derived from the TRICS database and were used to provide the level of trip generation. TRICS is an industry standard software for provision of trip rates for developments.

3.5.2 The TRICS trip rates were retained from those used by WBC in developing the WSTM4 model. The trip rates are shown in Table 3– 1 (Car and LGV) and Table 3-2 (HGV). The list of committed developments and the process is described in further detail in Section 3-6.

Table 3-1: Car and LGV Trip Rates Av. Inter Peak Hour (1000- AM Peak Hour (0800-0900) PM Peak Hour (1700-1800) Development 1600) Type Arrival Departure Total Arrival Departure Total Arrival Departure Total Food Retail (A1) per 2.64 2.14 4.77 6.33 6.09 12.43 6.23 6.89 13.11 100sqm Non-Food Retail (A1) per 0.20 0.04 0.25 2.56 2.51 5.07 1.57 1.62 3.19 100sqm Financial and Professional 2.20 0.19 2.39 0.42 0.57 0.99 0.23 1.98 2.22 Services (A2) per 100sqm Restaurant & Café (A3) per 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.68 1.51 3.20 2.68 0.83 3.51 100sqm Business (B1) 1.53 0.16 1.69 0.30 0.33 0.64 0.17 1.30 1.46 per 100sqm General Industry (B2) 0.51 0.19 0.70 0.22 0.24 0.46 0.10 0.49 0.59 per 100sqm Storage or Distribution 0.07 0.06 0.13 0.09 0.10 0.19 0.04 0.09 0.14 (B8) per 100sqm Hotels (C1) per 0.33 0.91 1.24 0.27 0.30 0.57 0.59 0.28 0.86 bed Dwelling Houses (C3) 0.17 0.41 0.58 0.18 0.18 0.36 0.36 0.16 0.51 per unit Dwelling Flats 0.06 0.18 0.25 0.11 0.11 0.22 0.19 0.10 0.29 (C3) per unit Non- Residential 6.75 3.60 10.36 5.22 5.26 10.48 3.47 4.64 8.11 Institutions

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Av. Inter Peak Hour (1000- AM Peak Hour (0800-0900) PM Peak Hour (1700-1800) Development 1600) Type Arrival Departure Total Arrival Departure Total Arrival Departure Total (D1) per 100sqm Primary School 0.70 0.58 1.28 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.04 0.08 0.11 (D1) per pupil Secondary School (D1) 0.11 0.08 0.19 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.05 per pupil Leisure Centre (D2) per 0.25 0.27 0.52 0.35 0.31 0.66 1.01 0.70 1.71 100sqm Cinema (D2) 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.11 0.77 1.89 1.10 1.04 2.14 per 100sqm Sports Hub 1.30 0.70 2.00 0.58 0.62 1.20 2.30 0.80 3.10 (D2) per pitch Science Park (B1) per 1.22 0.08 1.30 1.22 0.08 1.30 0.09 1.01 1.10 100sqm Business (B1) per 100sqm in 0.55 0.07 0.62 0.15 0.17 0.32 0.05 0.53 0.58 the Town Centre Student Flats 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02 per unit Dwelling Flats (C3) per unit in 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.09 the Town Centre Hospital 2.31 0.70 3.00 1.18 1.39 2.57 0.14 0.83 0.97

Table 3-2: HGV Trip Rates Av. Inter Peak Hour (1000- AM Peak Hour (0800-0900) PM Peak Hour (1700-1800) Development 1600) Type Arrival Departure Total Arrival Departure Total Arrival Departure Total Food Retail (A1) per 0.02 0.06 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.01 0.02 0.03 100sqm Non-Food Retail (A1) per 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100sqm Financial and Professional 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 Services (A2) per 100sqm Restaurant & Café (A3) per 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100sqm Business (B1) 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.01 per 100sqm General Industry (B2) 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 per 100sqm Storage or Distribution 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.03 (B8) per 100sqm Hotels (C1) per 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 bed Dwelling Houses (C3) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 per unit Dwelling Flats 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (C3) per unit

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Av. Inter Peak Hour (1000- AM Peak Hour (0800-0900) PM Peak Hour (1700-1800) Development 1600) Type Arrival Departure Total Arrival Departure Total Arrival Departure Total Non- Residential Institutions 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 (D1) per 100sqm Primary School 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (D1) per pupil Secondary School (D1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 per pupil Leisure Centre (D2) per 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100sqm Cinema (D2) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 per 100sqm Sports Hub 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (D2) per pitch Science Park (B1) per 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 100sqm

3.6 Committed Developments

3.6.1 Demand data for the forecasts was generated by increasing the number of trips from the base year of 2015. This was done by incorporating the strategic development locations and other allocated sites within Wokingham and committed development within Slough Borough Council (SBC), West Berkshire Council (WBEC), Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council (BDDC), Bracknell Forest Council (BFC), Hart District Council (HDC), Reading Borough Council (RBC), Wycombe District Council (WDC), Royal Borough of Windsor & Maidenhead (RBWM) and South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse District Council (SOVWHDC) where they fall within the study area.

3.6.2 A summary of development assumptions that have been included within the 2036 Scenario A and B models is shown in Table 3-3. The summary shows the number of dwellings and size of employment/warehousing/industry (in square meters – sqm) by district area. A full list of the developments included in the Reference Case scenarios is given in Appendix A. A map of the location of the developments is shown in Figure 3-3.

3.6.3 The distribution of trips to and from the sites has been taken from an existing zone within the model which is deemed to have similar characteristics in terms of land use and location. These zones are referred as donor zones and are shown as a column in the Reference Case assumptions in Appendix A. Trip distribution represents the spatial pattern of trips in terms of their origins and destinations.

Table 3-3: : Total Dwellings and Employment (sqm) by Area - Reference Case forecasts (Scenario A - incl Grazeley) Area No of Dwellings Employment/Warehousing/Industry(sqm)

Wokingham 20,107 139,792 Reading 60,195 144,446 West Berkshire 5,690 32,701 Basingstoke 7,980 121,214 Bracknell 7,981 - Hart 1,474 - Slough 6,176 -

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Area No of Dwellings Employment/Warehousing/Industry(sqm) South Oxon & Vale 5,794 74,285 of White Horse Wycombe 997 15,150 Windsor and 7,470 97,920 Maidenhead

Table 3-4: : Total Dwellings and Employment (sqm) by Area - Reference Case forecasts (Scenario B - incl Grazeley) Area No of Dwellings Employment/Warehousing/Industry(sqm)

Wokingham 18,107 139,792 Reading 60,195 144,446 West Berkshire 7,690 32,701 Basingstoke 7,980 121,214 Bracknell 7,981 - Hart 1,474 - Slough 6,176 - South Oxon & Vale 5,794 74,285 of White Horse Wycombe 997 15,150 Windsor and 7,470 97,920 Maidenhead

Figure 3-3: Location of Reference Case Developments

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3.7 National Trip End Model and Background Growth

3.7.1 The Scenarios A and B have been created assuming a level of background growth. National assumptions about background growth in travel demand are provided by DfT through the NTEM dataset. This dataset is based on predicted planning and demographic assumptions for future years, produced at District/Borough level.

3.7.2 In order to avoid double counting, the background growth application considers the following:

i. Committed development growth;

ii. Background growth outside the immediate study area; and

iii. Grazeley Garden Settlement.

3.7.3 Future growth predicted within Wokingham Borough has been removed in NTEM to take account of the fact that the purpose of the study is to understand the impact of the LPU proposals on the highway network. i.e. no growth over above the committed development growth is included.

3.7.4 Trip end growth in modelled zones which do not contain any new development in the future has been ascertained from TEMPro, using NTEM v7.2.

3.7.5 Using GIS software, the model zones were overlaid over the NTEM zones to establish the appropriate growth factor for the model zones. For a few modelled zones, the zone fell into more than one NTEM zone, in which case the NTEM zone into which the largest area of the model zone fell, was used.

3.7.6 The committed employment development details generally are referred in terms of gross floor area, rather than jobs. Employment densities have therefore been used to convert floor area to jobs. These densities are taken from the TRICS sites used to generate trip rates. They have also been sense checked against the 3rd edition (November 2015) of the Home and Communities Agency’s ‘Employment Densities guide’.

3.7.7 Within TEMPro, alternative planning assumptions were applied to subtract the development jobs and households from the NTEM forecasts. This allows the total trip end growth to be corrected to be consistent with NTEM. The development jobs were subtracted pro rata from all NTEM zones within the various areas.

3.7.8 Committed development information provided for the various areas listed in Tables 3-3 and 3-4 are also used within the model development and the NTEM growth factors for these areas was adjusted downwards accordingly, to avoid double counting.

3.7.9 Background NTEM growth outside the immediate study area, where no specific committed developments are included, are extracted from NTEM and used unadjusted.

3.7.10 TEMPro forecasts are the same for both Scenarios A and B. This is due to the additional dwellings as a result of Scenario B being additional to the number of dwellings located within the West Berkshire District and consequently do not affect the TEMPro growth factors between the Scenarios.

3.7.11 The TEMPro growth factors representing background growth from 2015 to 2036 are shown in Appendix B. They include both the unadjusted and adjusted alternative assumption trip growth factors for the areas which have committed developments. The factors are given for car driver by trip purposes commute, employer business and other and also by time periods AM, Inter Peak and PM. The information was developed at Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) level.

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3.7.12 DfT Road Traffic Forecasts (2018 RTF) were used for the growth of freight traffic encompassing LGV and HGV. These are shown in Table 3-5.

Table 3-5: DfT Road Traffic Forecasts (2018 RTF) (2015 – 2036) Vehicle Road Traffic growth rate from 2015 (%) Country Region Type Type 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 South LGV All England 10.4% 16.2% 22.6% 31.2% 39.8% 46.9% 52.6% East South HGV All England 1.5% 3.2% 5.7% 9.1% 12.7% 16.2% 19.5% East

3.8 Reference Case Network Assumptions

3.8.1 Table 3-5 summarises the forecast network assumptions that have been included in Scenarios A and B. They include committed infrastructure which has not been included in the 2026 Forecast of WSTM4. These include agreed and committed Schemes as well as complete Schemes which have already been completed. The location of complete and committed Schemes included in Scenarios A, B and C is shown in Figure 3-4.

Table 3- 5: Complete and Committed Schemes Included in Model Junction Description of Agreed Schemes Area

Sports Centre Additional traffic lane has been introduced on the Opladen Way approach. Bracknell Roundabout Completed 2014. Forest

Coral Reef Replacement of existing roundabout with fully signalised crossroads. Completed Bracknell Roundabout 2016. Forest Hanworth Bracknell Flythrough lane for Southbound A3095 traffic. Construction start 2020. Roundabout Forest The Golden Widening of the entry and exit lanes to the Roundabout on Crowthorne Road. New Bracknell Retrievers/Hut shared footpath/cycle track. Construction start 2020. Forest Roundabout The Scheme will convert the A322 between Twin Bridges Roundabout and the A322 Downshire Horse and Groom Roundabout to 2 lanes in both directions. The Scheme will also Bracknell Way Dualling remove the signalised bus gate and introduced new traffic signals at the junction. Forest Anticipated completion 2020.

MRT Phases 3 Bus priority measures (northbound and southbound bus lane) on the A33 between Reading &4 Rose Kiln Lane and Bennet Road. Anticipated completion 2021.

Green Park Addition of a railway station at Green Park. Anticipated completion post 2026. Reading Station Smart Motorway All lane running between junction 3 and 12 (4 lanes, 5 lanes between J4 and 4b). South East M4 J3-12 Anticipated completion 2022. Smart Motorway All lane running between junction 2 and 4a. Completed 2017. South East M3 J2-4a

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Figure 3-4: Committed Schemes Locations

Note: For the M3 and M4 improvements, these are represented as a point along the respective Motorway in between the junctions.

3.8.2 It was also necessary to amend the junction coding such as around M4 J12 to better reflect traffic behaviour. The coding has been undertaken consistently with the coding of the base year network.

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4 Scenario A and B Results

4.1 Introduction

4.1.1 This section provides an analysis of the 2036 forecast model for Scenario A and B to identify locations of the network that are already congested and have a poor level of service in the Reference Case scenarios. The suitability of the models to provide stable and reliable results has been checked by looking at the convergence outputs and these were found to meet DfT guidance criteria. Convergence outputs can be found in Appendix C.

4.1.2 Following this introduction, this section reports on the results of the matrix changes as a result of the VDM. As previously noted, VDM was undertaken in the Reference Case scenarios in order to have confidence that the baseline demands assigned to the network were consistent with network capacity. Without VDM, excessive demand might result in excessive congestion in the network potentially leading to excessive and unrealistic delays, queues and journey times.

4.1.3 This section also identifies congestion hotspots in Reference Case scenarios. These are locations which are already exhibiting poor levels of service without the proposed LPU demands but including Grazeley. Volume to Capacity ratio (V/C) has been used to identify these congested locations as explained in Section 4.3.

4.2 Pre and Post VDM Matrix Changes

4.2.1 This section reports on the matrix changes between Scenario A and B prior to application of VDM (Pre VDM) and after the application of VDM (post VDM matrices). This accounted for any suppression effects that might arise as a result of the constraints placed by network capacity on demands when the unconstrained Reference Case Forecasts are assigned. Before VDM, the demands in the matrices may not be consistent with available network capacity leading to unrealistic delays and congestion.

4.2.2 VDM adjusts the unconstrained demand resulting in post VDM demands that are more consistent with network capacity. A summary of the trip numbers for the reference case before VDM and post VDM without the scheme are shown in Table 4-1 and Table 4-2 for highway trips and PT trips. The results generally show modest differences between the Pre VDM and Post VDM matrices. The results are reasonable and show that the models are behaving logically. In the main, the Post VDM car matrices are noticeably lower than the Pre VDM matrices and the difference represents suppressed demand i.e. those trips that would not be able to be made because of capacity constraints in the network.

Table 4-1: Scenario A Pre and Post VDM Matrix Changes - Highway and PT Trips

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PRE VDM POST VDM User Class AM Inter PM AM Inter PM Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Public 2763 860 1793 4854 2044 2726 Employer/Business Public Other 5744 6548 7199 14391 12638 13646 Private Transport Total 160584 114575 166440 151889 108465 159443 Public Transport Total 39011 22302 31863 54933 31869 41792

Table 4-2: Scenario B Pre and Post VDM Matrix Changes - Highway and PT Trips

PRE VDM POST VDM User Class AM Inter PM AM Inter PM Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Private Car 105463 32259 72042 100298 30686 69673 Commute Private Car 11652 9198 12482 10535 8427 11766 Employer/Business Private Car Other 27356 54957 65394 24966 51136 61423 Private LGV 13640 14637 13815 13640 14637 13815 Private HGV 2498 3525 2708 2498 3525 2707 Scenario B Public Commute 30504 14894 22870 35431 17180 25407 Public 2763 860 1793 4858 2045 2725 Employer/Business Public Other 5744 6548 7199 14390 12649 13644 Private Transport 160610 114575 166441 151937 108411 159383 Total Public Transport 39011 22302 31863 54679 31874 41775 Total

4.3 Volume Capacity Ratios

4.3.1 A series of figures have been included within the Appendices E, F and G which show the volume capacity (V/C) ratios of the junctions in key areas surrounding Wokingham. The V/C is a measure of how a junction or link performs, when comparing the volume of traffic, against the capacity.

4.3.2 A V/C ratio greater than 1.00 indicates that the flows are equal to or exceed capacity, hence congestion might be expected at these junctions. In practice, it is widely considered within the industry, that junction or link performance begins to suffer when V/C ratios reach about 0.85 with rapid deterioration in network performance experienced. This includes an increase in queues and delays. Therefore, the figures displayed show where there are junctions that have a greater than 0.85 V/C ratio.

4.3.3 An analysis has been undertaken to identify the worst performing junctions in Scenario A and B. The key parameter that has been used is the volume to capacity ratio (V/C). The following thresholds have been assumed in the analysis:

 V/C < 0.85 (not shown on the maps in Appendices E, F and G);

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 V/C 0.85 < 0.9 (colour coded yellow in maps in Appendices E, F and G);

 V/C 0.9 < 1 (colour coded orange in maps in Appendices E, F and G); and

 V/C > 1 (colour coded red in maps in Appendices E, F and G).

4.4 Summary of Reference Case Performance in Wokingham

4.4.1 This section has presented the results of network performance for the Reference Case Scenarios A and B. These scenarios represent what network conditions might be without the proposed LPU development in 2036 but inclusive of Grazeley. The results indicate that there will be some junctions that will experience congestion and hence poor levels of service in both Scenarios A and B. This is best illustrated by those junctions with high volume to capacity ratios in particular those with values equal to or greater than 1.00 indicating that flows equal or exceeds junction capacity on at least one movement at the junctionwith consequent longer queues and delays.

4.4.2 The key junctions showing high Volume to capacity ratios are shown in Table 4-3 for the AM peak and Table 4-4 for the PM peak.

Table 4-3: Junctions with High V/C – Scenario A and B - AM Peak

Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Item Junction Description Junction Type Scenario A Scenario B

1 Thames Valley Park internal* Roundabout 1.13 1.14

London Road/Shepherds Hill Junction 2 Priority Junction 1.11 1.11 Westbound

3 Mill Lane Bridge Give Way to oncoming 1.10 1.10

Signalised 4 A33 Northbound over M4 J11 1.04 1.09 Roundabout

5 Thames Valley Park internal* Roundabout 1.05 1.07

Signalised 6 A33 onto M4 westbound at M4 J11 1.05 1.05 Roundabout

7 A4/ A329 Roundabout Roundabout 1.04 1.03

A329(M) NB Off Slip at Winnersh 8 Slip Road 1.03 1.03 Triangle

Three Mile Cross (Church 9 Signalised 1.11 1.02 Lane/Basingstoke Road)

10 Wilderness Rd/Beech Lane Roundabout 1.04 1.02

11 Reading Rd/Loddon Bridge Road Signalised 1.00 1.00

12 A33 / Basingstoke Road Signalised 0.99 1.00

Winnersh Relief Road/Kings Street 13 Signalised 1.00 1.00 Lane

14 SWDR Internal Junction Signalised 1.00 1.00

15 A33/ New Grazeley Access Junction Signalised 1.00 1.00

Spencers Wood B3349/ Basingstoke 17 Signalised 1.00 0.99 Road

Signalised 18 A329 Lower Earley Way/B327 1.00 0.99 Roundabout

A4 Westbound approach at Charvil 19 Roundabout 0.98 0.98 A4/A3032 Roundabout

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Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Item Junction Description Junction Type Scenario A Scenario B

Signalised 20 A33 Southbound at M4 J11 0.91 0.98 Roundabout

A33/ New Grazeley Access Junction at 21 Signalised 0.93 0.96 White House Lane

Signalised 22 M4 J11 onto A33 Northbound 0.94 0.96 Roundabout

A33/ New Grazeley Access Junction at 23 Signalised 1.00 0.95 Grazeley Road

24 Shinfield Road/Hollow Lane Signalised 0.97 0.95

25 Oak Avenue/ A329 London Road Signalised 0.94 0.94

26 A329 Reading Road/King Street Lane Signalised 0.93 0.94

28 London Rd/Wiltshire Rd/Peach St Signalised 0.92 0.92

B3430 Nine Mile Road / Heathlands 29 Signalised 0.91 0.91 Road

Signalised 30 A329 NB Off Slip / A4 London Road 0.77 0.91 Roundabout

A329 NB Off Slip at A4 London Road 31 Slip Road 0.95 0.91 Roundabout

32 A4 Bath Road/Pound Lane Roundabout 0.90 0.90

33 A4 London Road/ Sutton Park Avenue Roundabout 0.90 0.89

34 A329 SB Off Slip onto Coppid Beech Slip Road 0.89 0.89

35 Basingstoke Road /A33 Signalised 0.79 0.89

36 SWDR/A329 London Road Signalised 0.88 0.88

37 Beech Hill Road / Basingstoke Road Roundabout 0.85 0.88

Signalised 38 A329(M)/B403 junction 0.88 0.87 Roundabout

39 Upper Wargrave A321/ School Lane Signalised 0.87 0.87

40 A321 on approach to Henley Signalised 0.86 0.87

41 Osbourne Rd/Wiltshire Rd/Norrey Ave Signalised 0.86 0.86

Signalised 42 Wharfedale Road/ A329M 0.85 0.86 Roundabout

43 M4 J10, A329M WB On Slip Slip Road 0.86 0.86

Signalised 44 A329 Reading Rd/B3270 0.85 0.85 Roundabout

45 Stanlake Lane Railway Bridge Signalised 0.84 0.85

46 A329/St Annes Drive Priority Junction 0.85 0.85

A321 Twyford Road/ B3034 Forest 47 Priority Junction 0.85 0.84 Road

48 A3032/A321 Junction Twyford Signalised 0.84 0.84

Signalised 49 M4 J11 onto A33 Southbound 0.84 0.84 Roundabout

A329M/ A329 London Road NB On 50 Slip Road 0.84 0.83 Slip

51 SWDR /Easthampstead Road Signalised 0.80 0.80

52 Winnersh Relief Road/B3270 Signalised 0.85 0.85

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Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Item Junction Description Junction Type Scenario A Scenario B

A329(M) Southbound onto M4 53 Slip Road 0.79 0.79 Eastbound at Junction 10

Southbound on A329(M) at Coppid 54 Slip Road 0.68 0.68 Beech Roundabout

55 Whitley Wood Lane/B3270 Priority Junction 0.79 0.75

Signalised 56 A3290 onto A329(M) Southbound 0.83 0.84 Roundabout

57 Wilderness Rd/Beech Lane Mini roundabout 0.76 0.74

Coppid Beech Roundabout A329(M) Signalised 58 0.77 0.77 NB onto A3095 EB Roundabout

59 Shinfield Road/ Eastern Relief Road Signalised Junction 0.73 0.71

A3032 Eastern Arm at Charvil 60 Roundabout 0.75 0.74 A4/A3032 Roundabout

61 Rushey Way/Carshalton Way Earley Mini roundabout 0.76 0.76

62 Whiteknights Road/Wilderness Road Mini roundabout 0.64 0.63

63 Shute End Road Car Park Access Priority Junction 0.70 0.70

A327 Northbound at Black Boy Signalised 64 0.80 0.82 Roundabout Roundabout

Wharfedale Road to A3290 65 Signalised 0.52 0.53 Westbound

A4 Eastbound exit at Charvil 66 Roundabout 0.71 0.70 A4/A3032 Roundabout

Signalised 67 B3270 Westbound onto M4 J11 0.60 0.84 Roundabout

London Road Eastbound to A329 Signalised 68 0.76 0.76 Northbound at Coppid Beech Roundabout

Reading Road/Station Approach 69 Signalised 0.84 0.84 Junction *These junctions are not considered to have congestion issues, since the high Max V/Cs are caused by zones access arrangements in the model. In reality, traffic will access and egress the zone at multiple points leading to less demands at these junctions than the model suggests.

Table 4-4: Junctions with High V/C Scenario A and B - PM Peak

Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Item Junction Description Junction Type Scenario A Scenario B

1 Thames Valley Park internal* Roundabout 0.40 0.40

London Road/Shepherds Hill Junction 2 Priority Junction 0.90 0.88 Westbound

3 Mill Lane Bridge Give Way to oncoming 1.21 1.20

Signalised 4 A33 Northbound over M4 J11 0.73 0.79 Roundabout

5 Thames Valley Park internal* Roundabout 0.86 0.86

Signalised 6 A33 onto M4 westbound at M4 J11 1.02 1.03 Roundabout

7 A4/ A329 Roundabout Roundabout 0.96 0.93

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Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Item Junction Description Junction Type Scenario A Scenario B

A329(M) NB Off Slip at Winnersh 8 Slip Road 0.73 0.70 Triangle

Three Mile Cross (Church 9 Signalised 0.73 0.92 Lane/Basingstoke Road)

10 Wilderness Rd/Beech Lane Roundabout 1.01 1.02

11 Reading Rd/Loddon Bridge Road Signalised 1.00 1.00

12 A33 / Basingstoke Road Signalised 1.00 1.00

Winnersh Relief Road/Kings Street 13 Signalised 1.00 1.00 Lane

14 SWDR Internal Junction Signalised 0.78 0.77

15 A33/ New Grazeley Access Junction Signalised 0.95 0.81

Spencers Wood B3349/ Basingstoke 17 Signalised 0.78 1.03 Road

Signalised 18 A329 Lower Earley Way/B327 1.00 1.00 Roundabout

A4 Westbound approach at Charvil 19 Roundabout 1.00 0.99 A4/A3032 Roundabout

Signalised 20 A33 Southbound at M4 J11 0.97 1.00 Roundabout

A33/ New Grazeley Access Junction at 21 Signalised 0.89 0.87 White House Lane

Signalised 22 M4 J11 onto A33 Northbound 0.73 0.69 Roundabout

A33/ New Grazeley Access Junction at 23 Signalised 1.00 1.00 Grazeley Road

24 Shinfield Road/Hollow Lane Signalised 1.00 1.00

25 Oak Avenue/ A329 London Road Signalised 0.91 0.91

26 A329 Reading Road/King Street Lane Signalised 0.97 1.00

28 London Rd/Wiltshire Rd/Peach St Signalised 0.77 0.78

B3430 Nine Mile Road / Heathlands 29 Signalised 0.83 0.83 Road

Signalised 30 A329 NB Off Slip / A4 London Road 0.95 0.94 Roundabout

A329 NB Off Slip at A4 London Road 31 Slip Road 0.75 0.77 Roundabout

32 A4 Bath Road/Pound Lane Roundabout 1.00 0.98

33 A4 London Road/ Sutton Park Avenue Roundabout 0.45 0.43

34 A329 SB Off Slip onto Coppid Beech Slip Road 0.78 0.79

35 Basingstoke Road /A33 Signalised 0.56 1.04

36 SWDR/A329 London Road Signalised 0.85 0.86

37 Beech Hill Road / Basingstoke Road Roundabout 0.59 0.66

Signalised 38 A329(M)/B403 junction 0.67 0.66 Roundabout

39 Upper Wargrave A321/ School Lane Signalised 0.68 0.67

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Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Item Junction Description Junction Type Scenario A Scenario B

40 A321 on approach to Henley Signalised 0.65 0.64

41 Osbourne Rd/Wiltshire Rd/Norrey Ave Signalised 0.86 0.90

Signalised 42 Wharfedale Road/ A329M 0.83 0.80 Roundabout

43 M4 J10, A329M WB On Slip Slip Road 0.94 0.92

Signalised 44 A329 Reading Rd/B3270 0.85 0.87 Roundabout

45 Stanlake Lane Railway Bridge Signalised 0.84 0.85

46 A329/St Annes Drive Priority Junction 0.84 0.85

A321 Twyford Road/ B3034 Forest 47 Priority Junction 0.89 0.89 Road

48 A3032/A321 Junction Twyford Signalised 0.92 0.91

Signalised 49 M4 J11 onto A33 Southbound 0.96 0.95 Roundabout

A329M/ A329 London Road NB On 50 Slip Road 0.93 0.90 Slip

51 SWDR /Easthampstead Road Signalised 0.83 0.93

52 Winnersh Relief Road/B3270 Signalised 0.97 0.95

A329(M) Southbound onto M4 53 Slip Road 1.00 1.01 Eastbound at Junction 10

Southbound on A329(M) at Coppid 54 Slip Road 1.01 1.01 Beech Roundabout

55 Whitley Wood Lane/B3270 Priority Junction 0.96 1.00

Signalised 56 A3290 onto A329(M) Southbound 1.00 1.00 Roundabout

57 Wilderness Rd/Beech Lane Mini roundabout 0.98 0.97

Coppid Beech Roundabout A329(M) Signalised 58 0.92 0.94 NB onto A3095 EB Roundabout

59 Shinfield Road/ Eastern Relief Road Signalised Junction 0.95 0.93

A3032 Eastern Arm at Charvil 60 Roundabout 0.93 0.91 A4/A3032 Roundabout

61 Rushey Way/Carshalton Way Earley Mini roundabout 0.91 0.91

62 Whiteknights Road/Wilderness Road Mini roundabout 0.91 0.91

63 Shute End Road Car Park Access Priority Junction 0.90 0.90

A327 Northbound at Black Boy Signalised 64 0.88 0.88 Roundabout Roundabout

Wharfedale Road to A3290 65 Signalised 0.89 0.86 Westbound

A4 Eastbound exit at Charvil 66 Roundabout 0.84 0.85 A4/A3032 Roundabout

Signalised 67 B3270 Westbound onto M4 J11 0.66 0.85 Roundabout

London Road Eastbound to A329 Signalised 68 0.86 0.85 Northbound at Coppid Beech Roundabout

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Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Item Junction Description Junction Type Scenario A Scenario B

Reading Road/Station Approach 69 Signalised 0.84 0.84 Junction *These junctions are not considered to have congestion issues, since the high Maximum V/Cs are caused by zones access arrangements in the model. In reality, traffic will access and egress the zone at multiple points leading to less demands at these junctions than the model suggests.

4.4.3 Overall, there are many similarities between the Maximum Volume Capacity Ratios in Scenarios A and B in the Wokingham District Boundary.

4.4.4 In the AM peak Scenario A, 17 out of the 67 junctions have a Maximum Volume to Capacity Ratio of over 1.00, while for the AM peak Scenario B 15 out of 67 junctions are over 1.00 of which 12 of them are common to both scenarios.

4.4.5 In the PM peak 14 out of the 67 junctions in Scenario A have a Maximum Volume Capacity Ratio of over 1.00, while in Scenario B 17 out of 67 junctions are over 1.00 of which 14 of them are common to both.

4.4.6 With respect to the supporting infrastructure for Grazeley these schemes have been designed to optimum capacity within the strategic model. These will be subject to additional localised modelling as part of any future planning application and if required design characteristics can be amended at that time to address can capacity issues.

4.4.7 Mill Lane Bridge consistently has a Maximum V/C of 1.1 in the AM and 1.2 in the PM Peak in Scenarios A and B and therefore, is one of the worst performing locations of the network within the Wokingham District Boundary. The priority junction at London Road/Shepherds Hill Junction Westbound also performs poorly in the AM Peak Period in both Scenarios A and B with a Maximum V/C ratio of 1.1 in both scenarios.

4.4.8 Those junctions with V/C in excess of 1.0 may be subject to additional localised modelling to seek to improve the capacity compared to the strategic model output. These junctions and links may be related to an existing issue and not materially affected by the future development. WBC will seek to review these localised issues and if appropriate look to mitigate. However, certain junctions or links may not have a suitable mitigation scheme as such wider network mitigation may be required to address those limited localised issues.

4.4.9 While there are some slight differences between Scenarios A and B, these are not material differences.

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5 Local Plan Development Scenario C

5.1 Introduction

5.1.1 This section reports on the development proposals for the LPU. This scenario is termed Scenario C and comprises of various levels development quanta and spatial configuration. To date, four such scenarios termed Scenario C1, Scenario C2, Scenario C3 and Scenario C4 have been modelled. These are now explained below.

5.2 Scenario C

5.2.1 Scenario C is based on Scenario B but consists of additional Local Development sites within the Borough of Wokingham, these are largely grouped small sites in order to understand the cumulative impact of the relevant sites.

5.2.2 The clusters displayed in Figure 5-1 and Figure 5-2 show where the developments are located within the Borough of Wokingham. These are split into the Scenarios C1, C2, C3 and C4.

Figure 5-1: Development Sites for Scenario C1, C2 and C3

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Figure 5-2: Development Sites for Scenario C4

5.2.3 The definition of the four Scenario C proposals is shown below and in Table 5-1:

 Scenario C1 includes all the clusters checked in C1;

 Scenario C2 includes all the clusters checked in C2;

 Scenario C3 includes all the clusters checked in C3; and

 Scenario C4 includes all the sites checked in column C4.

5.2.4 Table 5-1 shows the site reference, proposed use and capacity for the development clusters in the Wokingham Plan update which are to be included as part of the modelling for Scenario C. It also shows which Scenario each of the site clusters are included in. Furthermore, the table labels the zone which the development cluster is located within and the donor zone. The donor zone is a zone with similar characteristics which can replicate the number of trips from the development.

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Table 5-1: Development Sites for Scenario C Capacity ID Site Reference Proposed Use Zone Donor Zone C1 C2 C3 C4 (dwellings or sqm)

1 5SO001 Housing 25 4000 262 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

2 5SO005 Housing 13 4001 262 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

3 5SO008 Housing 25 4002 262 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

4 5CV001 Housing 150 (85 in C4) 4003 1193 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

5 5CV002 Housing 160 (75 in C4) 4004 285 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

6 5TW005/009/010 Housing 150 4005 292 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Housing and 7 5TW007/011 220/3,716 4006 292 ✓ ✓ ✓ x Employment

8 5RU007 & 008 Housing 20 4007 292 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

9 5HU002 & 030 Housing 15 4008 284 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 250 (+150 place 10 5WI004/006/010 Housing special needs 4009 117 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ school in C4) 11 5WI008 Housing 20 4010 120 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

12 5WI009 Housing 40 (35 in C4) 4011 66 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

13 5WI011 Housing 25 (24 in C4) 4012 63 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

500 in C1 and C2, 14 5BA010 Housing 4013 28 ✓ ✓ ✓ x 750 in C3 Housing and 15 5BA012 140/2,646 4014 29 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Employment

16 5BA018 Housing 50 4015 54 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

17 5FI003 Housing 81 4016 45 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

18 5FI004 Housing 70 4017 42 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

19 5FI028 Housing 12 4018 29 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

20 5WK037 Housing 216 4019 51 ✓ ✓ ✓ x

21 Toutley Housing 160 (100 in C4) 4020 68 x ✓ ✓ ✓

22 5WK002 Housing 150 4021 102 x ✓ ✓ ✓

Wokingham Town 23 Housing 150 (100 in C4) 4022 269 x ✓ ✓ ✓ Centre

24 5SH019 Housing 55 4023 7 x ✓ ✓ x

25 Ruscombe BP Housing 75 4024 292 x x ✓ x

26 Bridge Park Housing 100 4025 92 x x ✓ x

27 5WK028 Housing 500 4026 69 x x ✓ x

28 5SH023/26/27 Housing 180 4027 135 x x ✓ x

29 5SH050 Employment 20,360 4028 137 x x ✓ ✓

30 5AR024 Employment 5,000 4029 137 x x ✓ x

31 5BA013 Housing 15 56 21 x x x ✓

32 5FI001 Housing 5 49 48 x x x ✓

33 5FI015 Housing 4 41 41 x x x ✓

34 5FI024 Housing 15 48 48 x x x ✓

35 5SH011 Housing 5 139 139 x x x ✓ Employment Additional (already includes As per As per As per 19,340 sqm adopted local plan As per adopted local 36 5SH020 137 137 adopted local adopted local adopted local compared to 55,000 sqm B1 and plan plan plan plan adopted local ancillary uses in plan Reference Case 37 5SH031 Housing 10 144 144 x x x ✓

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Capacity ID Site Reference Proposed Use Zone Donor Zone C1 C2 C3 C4 (dwellings or sqm)

38 5WK006 Housing 17 80 92 x x x ✓

39 5WK012 Housing 9 109 269 x x x ✓

40 5WK029 Housing 92 4030 137 x x x ✓

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6 Scenario C Results

6.1 Introduction

6.1.1 This section provides an analysis of the 2036 forecast model for Scenario C and its impacts on the network compared to the Reference Case Scenario B. Convergence statistics showing that the models are stable and suitable to use in the analysis are provided in Appendix D.

6.1.2 The key parameters that have been used to understand the network impacts of proposed LPU developments are delay differences in seconds, volume to capacity ratios (V/C) and flow differences. The comparisons have been undertaken between each of the Scenarios C1, C2, C3 and C4 and the Reference Case Scenario B.

6.2 Highway Demand

6.2.1 The Highway demand numbers for the Highway Model in each Scenario are reported as trips and are split by user class and time period. These are reported in Table 6-1, Table 6-2, Table 6-3 and Table 6-4 for Scenarios C1, C2, C3 and C4 respectively. These tables show both the number of trips for the highway model and for the clusters in each of the scenarios.

Table 6-1: Scenario C1 Highway Demand Matrices

Highway Model Scenario C1 Trips from Cluster C1 only User Class AM Inter PM AM Inter PM Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Private Car Commute 101183 30914 70207 885 227 535 Private Car 10628 8494 11854 93 67 88 Employer/Business Private Car Other 25190 51519 61905 224 383 482 Private LGV 13776 14781 13946 137 144 131

Scenario Private HGV 2508 3531 2714 10 7 7 C1 Public Commute 35476 17221 25430 46 41 24 Public 4900 2085 2750 41 40 25 Employer/Business Public Other 14435 12691 13668 45 42 24 Private Transport Total 153285 109239 160626 1348 828 1243 Public Transport Total 54810 31997 41848 132 123 73

Table 6-2: Scenario C2 Highway Demand Matrices

Highway Model Scenario C2 Trips from Cluster C2 only User Class AM Inter PM AM Inter PM Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Private Car Commute 101372 30963 70319 1074 276 646 Private Car 10647 8509 11872 112 82 107 Employer/Business Scenario C2 Private Car Other 25238 51602 62006 272 466 583 Private LGV 13806 14812 13973 166 175 158 Private HGV 2509 3533 2716 11 8 8

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Highway Model Scenario C2 Trips from Cluster C2 only User Class AM Inter PM AM Inter PM Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Public Commute 35487 17222 25435 56 43 29 Public 4909 2086 2756 51 41 31 Employer/Business Public Other 14445 12692 13673 55 43 29 Private Transport Total 153573 109419 160885 1636 1008 1502 Public Transport Total 54840 32001 41864 161 127 89

Table 6-3: Scenario C3 Highway Demand Matrices

Highway Model Scenario C3 Trips from Cluster C3 only User Class AM Inter PM AM Inter PM Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Private Car Commute 101975 31143 70665 1676 456 993 Private Car 10710 8563 11929 175 136 163 Employer/Business Private Car Other 25392 51910 62318 425 774 895 Private LGV 13902 14930 14058 262 293 243 Scenario Private HGV 2515 3539 2722 17 15 14 C3 Public Commute 35521 17226 25453 90 47 46 Public 4941 2090 2777 83 45 52 Employer/Business Public Other 14478 12696 13691 88 47 47 Private Transport Total 154492 110085 161692 2555 1673 2309 Public Transport Total 54940 32013 41920 261 139 145

Table 6-4: Scenario C3 Highway Demand Matrices

Highway Model Scenario C4 Trips from Cluster C4 only User Class Inter PM AM Inter PM AM Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Private Car 101423 31034 70273 1125 348 600 Commute Private Car Work 10652 8531 11863 118 104 97 Private Car Other 25253 51727 61961 287 592 538 Private LGV 13815 14860 13968 175 223 153 Private HGV 2511 3533 2717 13 9 9 Scenario C4 Public Commute 35494 17218 25427 63 38 21 Public Work 4921 2084 2757 63 40 33 Public Other 14449 12686 13669 59 37 25 Private Transport 153655 109686 160781 1718 1275 1397 Total Public Transport 54864 31989 41854 185 115 79 Total

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6.3 Delays

6.3.1 Delay differences for Scenario C1, C2, C3 and C4 when compared with Scenario B are shown in Appendix G. The delays are link delays in seconds. A positive value indicates that delays in Scenario C with the local plan are higher than delays in the Reference Case Scenario B.

6.3.2 The outputs highlight that the impact of the Local Plan developments at the strategic level is minimum.

6.4 Volume Capacity Ratios

6.4.1 As per Section 4.6, the Maximum Volume Capacity Ratio maps are located within Appendices E, F and G.

6.4.2 A summary of the worst performing junctions in the AM and PM peak period for Scenarios C1, C2, C3 and C4 within Wokingham District Boundary are shown in Table 6-5 and in Table 6-6.

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Table 6-5: Worst performing junctions in Scenario C Tests - AM Peak Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Junction Number Junction Description Junction Type Scenario B Scenario C1 Scenario C2 Scenario C3 Scenario C4 1 Thames Valley Park internal* Roundabout 1.14 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.15 2 London Road/Shepherds Hill Junction Westbound Priority Junction 1.11 1.13 1.13 1.14 1.12 3 Mill Lane Bridge Give Way to oncoming 1.10 1.17 1.18 1.20 1.14

4 A33 Northbound over M4 J11 Signalised Roundabout 1.09 1.03 1.01 1.10 1.10

5 Thames Valley Park internal* Roundabout 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.07 1.07

6 A33 onto M4 westbound at M4 J11 Signalised Roundabout 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05

7 A4/ A329 Roundabout Roundabout 1.03 1.06 1.06 1.11 1.07

8 A329(M) NB Off Slip at Winnersh Triangle Slip Road 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.05

9 Three Mile Cross (Church Lane/Basingstoke Road) Signalised 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.07 1.10

10 Wilderness Rd/Beech Lane Roundabout 1.02 0.99 0.99 1.02 1.03

11 Reading Rd/Loddon Bridge Road Signalised 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

12 A33 / Basingstoke Road Signalised 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

13 Winnersh Relief Road/Kings Street Lane Signalised 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

14 SWDR Internal Junction Signalised 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

15 A33/ New Grazeley Access Junction Signalised 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

17 Spencers Wood B3349/ Basingstoke Road Signalised 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99

18 A329 Lower Earley Way/B327 Signalised Roundabout 0.99 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.00

19 A4 Westbound approach at Charvil A4/A3032 Roundabout Roundabout 0.98 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.00

20 A33 Southbound at M4 J11 Signalised Roundabout 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99

21 A33/ New Grazeley Access Junction at White House Lane Signalised 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96

22 M4 J11 onto A33 Northbound Signalised Roundabout 0.96 0.98 0.98 0.94 0.95

23 A33/ New Grazeley Access Junction at Grazeley Road Signalised 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.98 0.99

24 Shinfield Road/Hollow Lane Signalised 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.97

25 Oak Avenue/ A329 London Road Signalised 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.95

26 A329 Reading Road/King Street Lane Signalised 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.94

28 London Rd/Wiltshire Rd/Peach St Signalised 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92

29 B3430 Nine Mile Road / Heathlands Road Signalised 0.91 0.93 0.93 0.97 0.91

30 A329 NB Off Slip / A4 London Road Signalised Roundabout 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.93 0.92

31 A329 NB Off Slip at A4 London Road Roundabout Slip Road 0.91 0.88 0.88 0.92 0.91

32 A4 Bath Road/Pound Lane Roundabout 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91

33 A4 London Road/ Sutton Park Avenue Roundabout 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.91 0.90

34 A329 SB Off Slip onto Coppid Beech Slip Road 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.90

35 Basingstoke Road /A33 Signalised 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.87 0.85

36 SWDR/A329 London Road Signalised 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89

37 Beech Hill Road / Basingstoke Road Roundabout 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.85

38 A329(M)/B403 junction Signalised Roundabout 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88

39 Upper Wargrave A321/ School Lane Signalised 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88

40 A321 on approach to Henley Signalised 0.87 0.85 0.85 0.87 0.87

41 Osbourne Rd/Wiltshire Rd/Norrey Ave Signalised 0.86 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.89

42 Wharfedale Road/ A329M Signalised Roundabout 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.87 0.87

43 M4 J10, A329M WB On Slip Slip Road 0.86 0.83 0.83 0.86 0.86

44 A329 Reading Rd/B3270 Signalised Roundabout 0.85 0.88 0.89 0.88 0.89

45 Stanlake Lane Railway Bridge Signalised 0.85 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.87

46 A329/St Annes Drive Priority Junction 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.87

47 A321 Twyford Road/ B3034 Forest Road Priority Junction 0.84 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.89

48 A3032/A321 Junction Twyford Signalised 0.84 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.86 49 M4 J11 onto A33 Southbound Signalised Roundabout 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84

50 A329M/ A329 London Road NB On Slip Slip Road 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.84

51 SWDR /Easthampstead Road Signalised 0.80 0.83 0.83 0.87 0.82

52 Winnersh Relief Road/B3270 Signalised 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.84 0.86

53 A329(M) Southbound onto M4 Eastbound at Junction 10 Slip Road 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.79

54 Southbound on A329(M) at Coppid Beech Roundabout Slip Road 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68

55 Whitley Wood Lane/B3270 Priority Junction 0.75 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77

56 A3290 onto A329(M) Southbound Signalised Roundabout 0.84 0.92 0.92 0.84 0.84

57 Wilderness Rd/Beech Lane Mini roundabout 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.75

58 Coppid Beech Roundabout A329(M) NB onto A3095 EB Signalised Roundabout 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.79 0.78

59 Shinfield Road/ Eastern Relief Road Signalised Junction 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.70 0.76

60 A3032 Eastern Arm at Charvil A4/A3032 Roundabout Roundabout 0.74 0.81 0.82 0.81 0.78

61 Rushey Way/Carshalton Way Earley Mini roundabout 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.76

62 Whiteknights Road/Wilderness Road Mini roundabout 0.63 0.60 0.60 0.63 0.63

63 Shute End Road Car Park Access Priority Junction 0.70 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.73

64 A327 Northbound at Black Boy Roundabout Signalised Roundabout 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.83

65 Wharfedale Road to A3290 Westbound Signalised 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.54 0.54

66 A4 Eastbound exit at Charvil A4/A3032 Roundabout Roundabout 0.70 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.72

67 B3270 Westbound onto M4 J11 Signalised Roundabout 0.84 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.83

68 London Road Eastbound to A329 Northbound at Coppid Beech Signalised Roundabout 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76

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Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Junction Number Junction Description Junction Type Scenario B Scenario C1 Scenario C2 Scenario C3 Scenario C4 69 Reading Road/Station Approach Junction Signalised 0.84 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.85 *These junctions are not considered to have congestion issues, since the high Max V/Cs are caused by zones access arrangements in the model. In reality, traffic will access and egress the zone at multiple points leading to less demands at these junctions than the model suggests.

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Table 6-6: Worst performing Junctions in Scenario C Tests - PM Peak Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Junction Number Junction Description Junction Type Scenario B Scenario C1 Scenario C2 Scenario C3 Scenario C4 1 Thames Valley Park internal* Roundabout 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 2 London Road/Shepherds Hill Junction Westbound Priority Junction 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 3 Mill Lane Bridge Give Way to oncoming 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.26 1.24

4 A33 Northbound over M4 J11 Signalised Roundabout 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.80 0.80

5 Thames Valley Park internal* Roundabout 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86

6 A33 onto M4 westbound at M4 J11 Signalised Roundabout 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03

7 A4/ A329 Roundabout Roundabout 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.95 0.93

8 A329(M) NB Off Slip at Winnersh Triangle Slip Road 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.70

9 Three Mile Cross (Church Lane/Basingstoke Road) Signalised 0.92 0.92 0.92 1.00 0.93

10 Wilderness Rd/Beech Lane Roundabout 1.02 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.02

11 Reading Rd/Loddon Bridge Road Signalised 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

12 A33 / Basingstoke Road Signalised 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

13 Winnersh Relief Road/Kings Street Lane Signalised 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

14 SWDR Internal Junction Signalised 0.77 0.79 0.79 0.81 0.78

15 A33/ New Grazeley Access Junction Signalised 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.81

17 Spencers Wood B3349/ Basingstoke Road Signalised 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.01 1.02

18 A329 Lower Earley Way/B327 Signalised Roundabout 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

19 A4 Westbound approach at Charvil A4/A3032 Roundabout Roundabout 0.99 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.01

20 A33 Southbound at M4 J11 Signalised Roundabout 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

21 A33/ New Grazeley Access Junction at White House Lane Signalised 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87

22 M4 J11 onto A33 Northbound Signalised Roundabout 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.69

23 A33/ New Grazeley Access Junction at Grazeley Road Signalised 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

24 Shinfield Road/Hollow Lane Signalised 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

25 Oak Avenue/ A329 London Road Signalised 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.92

26 A329 Reading Road/King Street Lane Signalised 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.97

28 London Rd/Wiltshire Rd/Peach St Signalised 0.78 0.79 0.79 0.80 0.78

29 B3430 Nine Mile Road / Heathlands Road Signalised 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.91 0.84

30 A329 NB Off Slip / A4 London Road Signalised Roundabout 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94

31 A329 NB Off Slip at A4 London Road Roundabout Slip Road 0.77 0.80 0.80 0.78 0.79

32 A4 Bath Road/Pound Lane Roundabout 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98

33 A4 London Road/ Sutton Park Avenue Roundabout 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.45 0.44

34 A329 SB Off Slip onto Coppid Beech Slip Road 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.81 0.80

35 Basingstoke Road /A33 Signalised 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.06 1.05

36 SWDR/A329 London Road Signalised 0.86 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.88

37 Beech Hill Road / Basingstoke Road Roundabout 0.66 0.67 0.66 0.67 0.65

38 A329(M)/B403 junction Signalised Roundabout 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.67

39 Upper Wargrave A321/ School Lane Signalised 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68

40 A321 on approach to Henley Signalised 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.65

41 Osbourne Rd/Wiltshire Rd/Norrey Ave Signalised 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.91

42 Wharfedale Road/ A329M Signalised Roundabout 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.81 0.79

43 M4 J10, A329M WB On Slip Slip Road 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92

44 A329 Reading Rd/B3270 Signalised Roundabout 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88

45 Stanlake Lane Railway Bridge Signalised 0.85 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.87

46 A329/St Annes Drive Priority Junction 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.86

47 A321 Twyford Road/ B3034 Forest Road Priority Junction 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.91

48 A3032/A321 Junction Twyford Signalised 0.91 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.93 49 M4 J11 onto A33 Southbound Signalised Roundabout 0.95 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95

50 A329M/ A329 London Road NB On Slip Slip Road 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91

51 SWDR /Easthampstead Road Signalised 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.93

52 Winnersh Relief Road/B3270 Signalised 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95

53 A329(M) Southbound onto M4 Eastbound at Junction 10 Slip Road 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01

54 Southbound on A329(M) at Coppid Beech Roundabout Slip Road 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01

55 Whitley Wood Lane/B3270 Priority Junction 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 0.97

56 A3290 onto A329(M) Southbound Signalised Roundabout 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

57 Wilderness Rd/Beech Lane Mini roundabout 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.97

58 Coppid Beech Roundabout A329(M) NB onto A3095 EB Signalised Roundabout 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.95

59 Shinfield Road/ Eastern Relief Road Signalised Junction 0.93 0.94 0.94 1.00 1.00

60 A3032 Eastern Arm at Charvil A4/A3032 Roundabout Roundabout 0.91 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.94

61 Rushey Way/Carshalton Way Earley Mini roundabout 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92

62 Whiteknights Road/Wilderness Road Mini roundabout 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.91

63 Shute End Road Car Park Access Priority Junction 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.92

64 A327 Northbound at Black Boy Roundabout Signalised Roundabout 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.92

65 Wharfedale Road to A3290 Westbound Signalised 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.86

66 A4 Eastbound exit at Charvil A4/A3032 Roundabout Roundabout 0.85 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.87

67 B3270 Westbound onto M4 J11 Signalised Roundabout 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84

68 London Road Eastbound to A329 Northbound at Coppid Beech Signalised Roundabout 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85

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Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Maximum V/C Junction Number Junction Description Junction Type Scenario B Scenario C1 Scenario C2 Scenario C3 Scenario C4 69 Reading Road/Station Approach Junction Signalised 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.85 *These junctions are not considered to have congestion issues, since the high Max V/Cs are caused by zones access arrangements in the model. In reality, traffic will access and egress the zone at multiple points leading to less demands at these junctions than the model suggests.

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6.5 Flow Difference

6.5.1 Flow differences for Scenario C1, C2, C3 and C4 with Scenario B are shown in Appendix H. A positive value indicates that the volume of flow in Scenario C with the local plan are higher than flows in the Reference Case Scenario B.

6.5.2 The outputs highlight that the level of flow increase generated by the Local Plan potential development sites, does not have a significant impact at a strategic level to the highway network.

6.6 Summary of Scenario C Performance in Wokingham Boundary

6.6.1 For the purpose of the summary of the performance Scenario C will be compared to the Scenario B Reference Case. The majority of junctions have been reported below that change category (as described in Section 4.6.1) or have a relatively large increase in Maximum V/C where they already have a max V/C above 1.00.

6.6.2 The worst performing junctions in Scenario C1, C2, C3 and C4 are listed in Table 6-5 and Table 6-6.

 Mill Lane bridge is the worst performing junction in all three C scenarios in the AM Peak period and PM peak period. For both time periods the Maximum V/C has increased from Scenario B to Scenario C1, C2, C3 and C4. This has a Maximum V/C of between 1.14 and 1.26 in all Scenarios for both time periods.

 London Road/Shepherds Hill Priority Junction Westbound also has a Maximum V/C over 1.14 for Scenario C1, C2, C3 and C4 in the AM peak period.

6.6.3 A summary is provided of the changes in Maximum V/C of the junctions in the AM Peak period between Scenario B (The Reference Case) and the Scenario C (LPU) tests.

 The A4/A329 roundabout had a Maximum V/C of 1.03 in Scenario B this increases to 1.06 in Scenario C1 and C2, 1.11 in Scenario C3 and to 1.07 in Scenario C4.

 A4 Westbound approach at Charvil A4/A3032 Roundabout increased from 0.98 in Scenario B to 1.03 in Scenario C1 and C2, 1.02 in Scenario C3 and 1 in Scenario C4.

 The signalised junction at Osbourne Rd/Wiltshire Rd/Norrey Ave increases from 0.86 in Scenario B to 0.89, 0.91, 0.93 and 0.89 in Scenario C1, C2, C3 and C4 respectively.

6.6.4 A summary is provided of the step changes in Maximum V/C of the junctions in the PM Peak period between Scenario C and Scenario B.

 The Three Mile Cross signalised junction has a Maximum V/C of 0.92 in Scenario B, C1 and C2 and this increased to 1.00 Scenario C3 and to 0.93 in Scenario C4.

 Shinfield Road/Eastern relief road increases from 0.93 in Scenario B to 1.00 in Scenario C3 and C4.

 The A4 Westbound approach at Charvil A4/A3032 Roundabout increased from 0.99 in Scenario B to 1.04 in Scenario C1, C2 and C3 and to 1.01 in Scenario C4.

 A327 Northbound at Black Boy Roundabout increases from 0.88 in Scenario B to 0.93 in Scenario C3 and 0.92 in Scenario C4 and B3430 Nine Mile Road / Heathlands Road increased from 0.83 in Scenario B to 0.91 in Scenario C3 and 0.84 in Scenario C4.

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6.6.5 The results of the assessment do not indicate a need for further strategic highway mitigation to accommodate the LPU developments above the infrastructure already provided in the adopted Local Plan as the impact of the proposed developments have a minimum impact on the network at a strategic level. Mitigation will need to be considered at a localised or individual junction level the planning application stage and corridor improvements and public transport opportunities will be considered through the Local Transport Plan 4.

6.6.6 Those junctions with V/C in excess of 1.0 may be subject to additional localised modelling to seek to improve the capacity compared to the strategic model output. These junctions and links may be related to an existing issue and not materially affected by the future development. WBC will seek to review these localised issues and if appropriate look to mitigate. However, certain junctions or links may not have a suitable mitigation scheme as such wider network mitigation may be required to address those limited localised issues.

6.6.7 The following junctions in Table 6-7 are shown are to be overcapacity with the LPU development and are also shown to be slightly worse than the Reference Case, therefore further consideration needs to be given at a local level regarding their mitigation. A tick indicates the Scenario C proposals in which the junction is overcapacity in either one or both of the AM and PM peaks.

Table 6-7: Overcapacity Junctions with LPU slightly worse than Reference Case

Junction Number Junction Description Junction Type C1 C2 C3 C4

2 London Road/Shepherds Hill Junction Westbound Priority Junction ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

3 Mill Lane Bridge Give Way to oncoming ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

4 A33 Northbound over M4 J11 Signalised Roundabout ✓ ✓

7 A4/ A329 Roundabout Roundabout ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

8 A329(M) NB Off Slip at Winnersh Triangle Slip Road ✓ ✓

9 Three Mile Cross (Church Lane/Basingstoke Road) Signalised ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

10 Wilderness Rd/Beech Lane Roundabout ✓

17 Spencers Wood B3349/ Basingstoke Road Signalised ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

18 A329 Lower Earley Way/B327 Signalised Roundabout ✓ ✓

19 A4 Westbound approach at Charvil A4/A3032 Roundabout Roundabout ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

20 A33 Southbound at M4 J11 Signalised Roundabout ✓

22 M4 J11 onto A33 Northbound Signalised Roundabout ✓ ✓

35 Basingstoke Road /A33 Signalised ✓ ✓

6.6.8 With respect to the supporting infrastructure for Grazeley these schemes have been designed to optimum capacity within the strategic model. These will be subject to additional localised modelling as part of any future planning application and if required design characteristics can be amended at that time to address can capacity issues.

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6.7 Impact of Local Plan Update on Neighbouring Authorities

6.7.1 The modelling indicates that there are no junctions outside of Wokingham which are shown to be worse with the Local Plan development included.

6.8 Impact on the Strategic Road Network (SRN)

6.8.1 The modelling indicates that some nodes at M4 Junction 11 are shown to be slightly worse than the Reference Case with the LPU in place. This is the case in the AM peak only.

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7 Summary

7.1 Conclusion

7.1.1 This study has set out the findings of the transport modelling and assessment work undertaken by Stantec for Wokingham Borough Council to inform the preparation of the Wokingham Local Plan Update (LPU) with a horizon to 2036. The LPU will review the policies and strategy of the adopted Wokingham Local Plan (LP) whilst also seeking to meet the latest identified needs of the Plan Area through to 2036.

7.1.2 In summary, the key findings are that:

 In the baseline scenario (Scenario B and Scenario A), a number of junctions already experience capacity issues. While this is projected to get worse, with the proposed development LPU scenario without mitigation, the order of magnitude of the V/C ratios were largely comparable with and without the LPU.

 The modelling indicates that some nodes at M4 Junction 11 are shown to be slightly worse than the Reference Case with the LPU in place. This is the case in the AM peak only.

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Appendix A Development in Reference Case

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Area WSTM4 Zone Donor Zone Address Land Use Land Use Class Trip Rate Class Unit Size WBC 250 250 Norton Road, Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 9 WBC 269 269 7-9 Wiltshire Road, Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 31 WBC 242 242 43 Crockhamwell Road, Woodley, Employment A2 A2 sqm 88 WBC 12 137 Lambs Farm Business Park Basingstoke Road Swallowfield Berkshire Employment B1, B8 B1 sqm 225 WBC 12 137 Lambs Farm Business Park Basingstoke Road Swallowfield Berkshire Employment B1, B8 B8 sqm 225 WBC 248 248 7 Headley Road Woodley Employment A2 A2 sqm -246 WBC 157 157 78 Meadow Road Earley Employment Sui Generis B1 sqm -55 WBC 249 249 6 First Floor Library Parade Crockhamwell Road Employment D2 D2, Leisure Centre sqm -100 WBC 249 249 6 First Floor Library Parade Crockhamwell Road Employment B1 B1 sqm 100 WBC 12 137 Unit N Basingstoke Road Spencers Wood Reading Berkshire Employment B1, B8 B1 sqm 70 WBC 12 137 Unit N Basingstoke Road Spencers Wood Reading Berkshire Employment B1, B8 B8 sqm 70 WBC 52 68 Land r/o 328 - 348 Barkham Rd, Barkham Hill, Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 10 WBC 269 269 51 Peach Street Wokingham Berkshire Employment B1 B1 sqm -206 WBC 269 269 51 Peach Street Wokingham Berkshire Employment C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 4 WBC 74 111 Cyber House 2, Molly Millars Lane, Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 65 WBC 296 296 134-146 London Road Twyford Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 31 WBC 74 111 Rosa Building, Mulberry Business Park, Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 33 WBC 74 111 Ilex House, Fishponds Road, Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 45 WBC 270 66 Hewden Plant Hire Old Forest Road Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 43 WBC 67 66 Crown House Toutley Industrial Estate, Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 22 WBC 93 93 Kronos House Finchampstead Road Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 31 WBC 130 137 Mays Farm Hyde End Road Shinfield Employment B8 B8 sqm 217 WBC 282 282 15-27 High Street, Wargrave, Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 10 WBC 269 269 7-9 Shute End Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 10 WBC 75 109 12 Oaklands Business Centre, Oaklands Park Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 18 WBC 259 259 Loddon Vale House, Hurricane Way, Woodley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 10 WBC 120 120 498 Reading Road Winnersh Berkshire Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 8 WBC 269 269 Baileys House Central Walk Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 8 WBC 249 249 81-109 Crockhamwell Road Woodley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 8 WBC 74 111 Quoin House Fishponds Road Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 23 WBC 287 287 Valley Nurseries Whistley Green Hurst Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 16 WBC 44 80 151 Land South of Nash Grove Lane Finchampstead Employment B8 B8 sqm -206 WBC 101 101 Eustace Crescent (now Phoenix Ave), Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 68 WBC 248 248 Former Fosters Home for the Elderly, Fosters Lane, Woodley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 34 WBC 269 269 Baileys House, Central Walk, Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 10 WBC 232 232 Sutton Court, Culver Lane, Earley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings -70 WBC 259 259 CCC site, Sandford Farm, Perimeter Rd, Woodley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 73 WBC 111 111 Cantley Lodge Hotel & Johnson House, Wellington Rd, Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 32 WBC 118 122 Land rear of 40 Arbor Lane, Winnersh Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 28 WBC 62 72 The Corner Garage 136 Reading Road Wokingham Employment B2 B2 sqm 50 WBC 234 234 UoR Bulmershe Campus, Woodlands Ave, (phase 2) Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 239 WBC 269 269 74-80 Peach St, Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 36 WBC 253 253 Viscount Way, Woodley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 68 WBC 23 135 Former Bearwood Golf Course, Mole Rd, Sindlesham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 18 WBC 295 295 58 Hurst Road Twyford Reading RG10 0AN Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 11 WBC 269 269 Land at Market Place, Peach St & Rose St, Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 21 WBC 128 67 Harp Farm Forest Road Wokingham Employment B8 B8 sqm 565 WBC 148 137 3 Danehill Lower Earley Reading Employment B1 B1 sqm -283 WBC 148 137 3 Danehill Lower Earley Reading Employment B2 B2 sqm 283 WBC 249 249 81 Crockhamwell Road, Woodley, Employment D2 D2, Leisure Centre sqm -724 WBC 1153 145 Land adj. The Square, Chalfont Way, Lower Earley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 20 WBC 137 137 Thames Valley Science and Innovation Park Employment B1 B1, TVSP sqm 16096 WBC 234 234 UoR Bulmershe Campus, Woodlands Ave, (phase 1) Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 34 WBC 253 253 Land at junction of Headley Road East & Spitfire Way, Woodley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 93 WBC 259 259 Courtyard Offices, Sandford Farm, Perimeter Rd, Woodley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 27 WBC 253 253 Part of Former Linpac Site, Headley Rd East, Woodley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 30 WBC 73 110 Folly Court, Blagrove Lane, Wokingham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 100 WBC 259 259 Land off Mohawk Way, Woodley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 16 WBC 11 424 Land west of Beech Hill Road, Spencers Wood Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 120 WBC 6 4 Marlborough House, Basingstoke Rd, Spencers Wood Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 15 WBC 164 164 UoR - Sibly Hall, Redhatch Drive, Earley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 89

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WBC 229 229 Sonning Farm, Sonning Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 25 WBC 287 287 Land west of Hurst Rd, Twyford Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 8 WBC 61 135 Wheatsheaf Close, Sindlesham Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 24 WBC 111 111 Carnival Pool, Wellington Rd, Wokingham Mixed B1 B1 sqm -916 WBC 111 111 Carnival Pool, Wellington Rd, Wokingham Mixed sui generis B8 sqm 0 WBC 2063 269 Elms Field & The Paddocks, Elms Rd, Wokingham Mixed A1 A1, food sqm 1631 WBC 2064 72 Elms Field & The Paddocks, Elms Rd, Wokingham Mixed A1-A5 A1, non-food sqm 347 WBC 2064 72 Elms Field & The Paddocks, Elms Rd, Wokingham Mixed A1-A5 A2 sqm 110 WBC 2064 72 Elms Field & The Paddocks, Elms Rd, Wokingham Mixed A1-A5 A3 sqm 73 WBC 2065 269 Elms Field & The Paddocks, Elms Rd, Wokingham Mixed C1 C1, Bed bed 19 WBC 2066 110 Elms Field & The Paddocks, Elms Rd, Wokingham Mixed C3 (Flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 90 WBC 2067 111 Elms Field & The Paddocks, Elms Rd, Wokingham Mixed C3 (Dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 36 WBC 2068 269 Elms Field & The Paddocks, Elms Rd, Wokingham Mixed D2 D2, Cinema sqm 232 WBC 2069 72 Carnival Pool, Wellington Rd, Wokingham Mixed D1 D1, non-resi sqm 1750 WBC 2069 72 Carnival Pool, Wellington Rd, Wokingham Mixed D2 D2, Leisure Centre sqm 1750 WBC 2070 72 Carnival Pool, Wellington Rd, Wokingham Mixed A3 A3 sqm 450 WBC 2071 109 Carnival Pool, Wellington Rd, Wokingham Mixed C3 (Flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 55 WBC 2062 120 Hatch Farm Dairies, Winnersh Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 433 WBC 2074 110 Sandford Farm, Woodley Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 468 WBC 2073 111 Waterloo Rd Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 200 WBC 2072 269 MSCP Mixed A1-A5 A1, non-food sqm 1388 WBC 2072 269 MSCP Mixed A1-A5 A2 sqm 438 WBC 2072 269 MSCP Mixed A1-A5 A3 sqm 292 WBC 2072 269 MSCP Mixed C1 C1, bed bed 76 WBC 2072 269 MSCP Mixed D2 D2, Cinema sqm 928 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 56, 25, 27, 26, 30, 31, Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 3500 WBC 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 18, 32, 29, 28, 18, 33, Arborfield Garrison SDL Education D1 D1, Primary & D1, Secondary Pupils 1840 2011, 2012, 2086, 2013, 2014, 2075 25, 27, 26, 30, 56 Employment A1, B1, B2 A1, food & B1 &B2 sqm 16000 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 4, 424, 5, 9, 130, 133, 132, Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 2897 WBC 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 137, 134, 138, 137, 137, South of M4 SDL Education D1 D1, Primary Pupils 740 2026, 2026, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030 137, 137, 4, 424, 5, 9 Employment B1, A1, A2, A3 B1, TVSP & A1, food & A2 & A3 sqm 63594 2031, 2032, 2033, 2034, 2087, 268, 167, 64, 67, 67, Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 1522 WBC 2035, 2036, 2039, 2040, 2088, 98, 97, 101, 102, North Wokingham SDL Education D1 D1, Primary Pupils 420 2041, 2041, 2041, 2089 67, 67, 67, 67, 66 Employment A1, A3, B1, B2, B8 A1, non-food & A3 & B1 & B2 & B8 sqm 24756 2090, 2043, 2044, 2045, 2046, 347, 88, 91, 80, 85, Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 2302 WBC 2048, 2049, 2050, 2051, 2052, 2053, 84, 92, 93, 94, 88, 80, South Wokingham SDL Education D1 D1, Primary Pupils 840 2054, 2055, 2056, 2057, 2059 85, 131, 90, 84, 92 Employment A3, D2 A3 & D2, Sports Hub sqm 240800 RBC 184 184 Greenpark Phases 1 & 2 Employment B1 B1 sqm 0 RBC 267 267 Greenpark Phases 1 & 2 Employment B1 B1 sqm 40000 RBC 206 1128 42 Kenavon Drive Residential C3 C3, Flats Dwellings 25000 RBC 1027 1028 Station Hill Site Residential C3 C3, Town centre Dwellings 190 RBC 1113 1113 Former Sorting Office, Caversham Road Residential C3 C3, Town centre Dwellings 2197 RBC 1115 1125 Kings Reach, 38-50 Kings Road Residential C3 C3, Town centre Dwellings 701 RBC 190 1100 5-9 Berkeley Avenue Residential C3 C3, Flats Dwellings 109 RBC 1004 1004 Dee Park Estate, Spey Road Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 112 RBC 188 188 Kennet Island Phase 3 (excl 3A), Manor Farm Road Residential C3 C3, Flats Dwellings 142 RBC 184 184 Pingemead Business Park & Land adj to Longwater Avenue Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 362 RBC 1097 1097 Ambulance Station, Battle Hospital Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 1486 RBC 221 1013 Former Coopers BMW Site Kings Meadow Road Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 215 RBC 206 1128 Homebase / Toys R Us site Kenavon Drive Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 315 RBC 206 1128 Homebase / Toys R Us site Kenavon Drive Retail A1 A1, food sqm 765 RBC 199 199 Land at Weldale Street Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 355 RBC 1195 1195 Aldwych House, 2 Blagrave Street Employment B1 B1, Town centre sqm 427 RBC 1115 1125 Energis House, Forbury Road Employment B1 B1, Town centre sqm 4433 RBC 1113 1113 Former Sorting Office, Caversham Road Employment B1 B1 sqm 13179 RBC 1113 1113 Former Sorting Office, Caversham Road Retail A1 A1, non-food sqm 11356 RBC 1113 1113 Former Sorting Office, Caversham Road Leisure - - - 1251 RBC 1113 1113 Former Sorting Office, Caversham Road Hotel C1 C1, Bed bed 0 RBC 1027 1028 Station Hill Site Employment B1 B1 sqm 115 RBC 1027 1028 Station Hill Site Retail A1 A1, non-food sqm 40156 RBC 1027 1028 Station Hill Site Leisure - - - 4444

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RBC 1028 1159 Yell House, Queens Walk Residential C3 C3, Students Dwellings 0 RBC 1195 1195 Thames Tower, 37-45 Station Road Employment B1 B1, Town centre sqm 395 RBC 176 176 University of Reading, The Chancellers Way & Shinfield Road Hotel C1 C1, Bed bed 1955 RBC 178 178 Ridgeway Primary School, Willow Gardens Education D1 D1, Primary pupils 50 RBC 1004 1004 Dee Park Estate, Spey Road Retail A1 A1, non-food sqm 138 RBC 1124 1124 Royal Berkshire Hospital, London Road Hospital Hospital sqm 523 RBC 1202 1202 252 Kings Road Residential C3 C3, Students Dwellings 3949 RBC 182 184 Reading International Business Park, A33 Relief Road Employment B1 B1 sqm 129 RBC 184 184 Plot 3.2 400-450 Longwater Avenue Employment B1 B1 sqm 11161 RBC 267 267 Plot 8 600 South Oak Way Employment B1 B1 sqm 4634 RBC 184 184 Plot 17 500-600 Longwater Avenue Employment B1 B1 sqm 6725 RBC 187 187 Junction of Basingstoke Road and Manor Farm Road Employment B1 B1 sqm 7419 RBC 186 186 Kennet Island Manor Farm Road Employment B1 B1 sqm 461 RBC 181 184 Worton Grange, Imperial Way Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 24062 RBC 181 184 Worton Grange, Imperial Way Retail A1 A1, non-food sqm 175 RBC 181 184 Worton Grange, Imperial Way Warehousing B8 B8 sqm 1398 RBC 181 184 Worton Grange, Imperial Way Hotel C1 C1, Bed bed 2462 RBC 181 184 Worton Drive Employment B1 B1 sqm 39 RBC 181 184 Worton Drive Warehousing B8 B8 sqm 185 RBC 184 184 REP Residential C3 C3, Flats Dwellings 1000 RBC 184 184 REP Employment B1 B1 sqm 633 RBC 184 184 REP Leisure - - - 611 RBC 184 184 REP Hotel C1 C1, Bed bed 0 RBC 184 184 REP Conference 81 WBEC 461 461 Sandleford Park Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 2000 WBEC 1179 1179 Newbury Racecourse Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 991 WBEC 1179 1179 Land adjacent Pondhouse Farm, Burghfield Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 100 WBEC 1075 1075 Pirbright Institute Site, High Street, Compton Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 140 WBEC 1024 1025 Land adjacent to Junction 12 of M4, Bath Road, Calcot Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 150 WBEC 463 463 Land east of Salisbury Road, Hungerford Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 100 WBEC 1179 1179 Land off Greenham Road and New Road, South East Newbury Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 157 WBEC 463 463 Land at Bath Road, Speen Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 100 WBEC 1188 1188 Field between A340 and The Green, Theale Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 100 WBEC 461 461 AWE Aldermaston, Aldermaston, Reading Industry B2 B2 sqm 18489 WBEC 461 461 Youngs Industrial Estate, Paices Hill, Aldermaston, Reading Employment B1 B1 sqm 2691 WBEC 1075 1075 Frilsham Home Farm Dairy, Frilsham, Yattendon Warehousing B8 B8 sqm 3821 WBEC 1179 1179 Sterling Industrial Estate, Kings Road, Newbury Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 167 WBEC 1179 1179 Land off Faraday and Kelvin Road Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 160 WBEC 1179 1179 Land off Faraday and Kelvin Road Employment B1 B1 sqm 7700 WBEC 461 461 Highwood Copse School, land south of Newbury College, Monks Lane, Newbury Education D1 D1, Primary pupils 210 WBEC 463 463 Land adjacent to Hilltop, Oxford Road Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 701 WBEC 1188 1188 Lakeside, The Green, Theale Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 325 WBEC 1179 1179 Lambourn, Nexus and Derby House, Newbury Business Park Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 129 WBEC 1179 1179 Emerald House, Newbury Business Park Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 138 WBEC 1179 1179 Market Street Residential C3 C3, Dwelling Dwellings 232 BDDC 480 480 LOCAL PLAN ALLOCATION FOR B1 USE Employment B1 B1 sqm 0 BDDC 480 480 LOCAL PLAN ALLOCATION FOR B1 USE Employment B1 B1 sqm 5539 BDDC 480 480 LOCAL PLAN ALLOCATION FOR B1 USE Employment B1 B1 sqm 2862 BDDC 480 480 B1 OFFICE DEVELOPMENT Employment B1 B1 sqm 2954 BDDC 480 480 B1(C), B2 AND B8 DEVELOPMENT Employment B1 B1 sqm 10248 BDDC 480 480 3 STOREY B1 OFFICE DEVELOPMENT Employment B1 B1 sqm 14263 BDDC 480 480 TWO STOREY OFFICE BUILDING Employment B1 B1 sqm 1846 BDDC 1180 1180 OFFICE AND WORKSHOP EXTENSION Employment B1 B1 sqm 2031 BDDC 480 480 LOCAL PLAN ALLOCATION FOR B1 USE Employment B1 B1 sqm 3277 BDDC 480 480 ERECTION OF A 2 STOREY OFFICE BUILDING FOR B1 USE Employment B1 B1 sqm 3000 BDDC 1180 1180 MIXED DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING 945M2 OF B1 FLOORSPACE Employment B1 B1 sqm 1893 BDDC 480 480 LOCAL PLAN ALLOCATION FOR B1 USE Employment B1 B1 sqm 13386 BDDC 480 480 LOCAL PLAN ALLOCATION FOR B1 USE Employment B1 B1 sqm 1616 BDDC 480 480 OFFICE REDEVELOPMENT SITE Employment B1 B1 sqm 1893 BDDC 480 480 CHANGE OF USE OF BARN TO COMMERCIAL Employment B1 B1 sqm 1477 BDDC 480 480 ERECTION OF A 2 STOREY BUILDING FOR B1/B2/B8 USE Employment B1 B1 sqm 4293 BDDC 480 480 ERECTION OF A 2 STOREY BUILDING FOR B1/B2/B8 USE Employment B2 B2 sqm 1569

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BDDC 480 480 ERECTION OF A 2 STOREY BUILDING FOR B1/B2/B8 USE Employment B8 B8 sqm 1569 BDDC 1180 1180 CHANGE OF USE TO B1A OFFICE Employment B1 B1 sqm 1569 BDDC 480 480 REDEVELOPMENT OF INDUSTRIAL SITE Employment B1 B1 sqm 2770 BDDC 480 480 REDEVELOPMENT OF INDUSTRIAL SITE Employment B2 B2 sqm 3154 BDDC 480 480 REDEVELOPMENT OF INDUSTRIAL SITE Employment B8 B8 sqm 3154 BDDC 480 480 LOCAL PLAN ALLOCATION FOR B1 Employment B1 B2 sqm 3154 BDDC 480 480 MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING RETAIL & EMPLOYMENT Employment A1 A1, Non-Food sqm 10155 BDDC 480 480 CLASS A1, A3/A5 RETAIL WAREHOUSING Employment A1 A1, Non-Food sqm 5124 BDDC 1181 1181 SINGLE STOREY EXTENSION AND CANOPY TO GARDEN CENTRE SHOP Employment A1 A1, Non-Food sqm 15556 BDDC 480 480 MIXED DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING LEISURE Employment D2 D2, leisure centre sqm 554 BDDC 1180 1180 COMMUNITY BUILDING AND TENNIS COURTS Employment D2 D2, leisure centre sqm 2308 BDDC 1181 1181 ALTERATIONS TO EXISTING TO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL 21 BEDROOMS Residential C1 C1, bed Dwellings 1108 BDDC 480 480 CHANGE OF USE FROM OFFICES TO 12 LETTING ROOMS Residential C1 C1, bed Dwellings 21 BDDC 480 480 CHURCHILL PLAZA (17/00416/GPDOFF) Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 12 BDDC 480 480 THE WHITE BUILDING (FORMER ELI LILLY) (17/02279/FUL) Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 285 BDDC 1182 1182 RAZOR'S FARM (BDB/77382, 15/02513/RES, 16/03842/RES, 17/02302/RES) Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 491 BDDC 480 480 NORTH OF POPLEY FIELDS, BASINGSTOKE (BDB/75761, BDB/75762, 16/01794/RES) Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 420 BDDC 1182 1182 UPPER CUFAUDE FARM Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 450 BDDC 1180 1180 EAST OF BASINGSTOKE Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 390 BDDC 480 480 MANYDOWN, BASINGSTOKE (17/00818/OUT) Residential C2, C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 450 BDDC 480 480 LAND NORTH OF PARK PREWETT, FORMER GOLF COURSE (13/00579/OUT) Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 3520 BDDC 480 480 NORTH OF MARNEL PARK/SPIERS MEADOW (BDB/75761) Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 558 BDDC 480 480 BASING VIEW (SHELAA Ref. BAS153) Residential C3 (flats), C3 (dwellings) C3, Flats Dwellings 275 BFC 347 345 Land at Amen Corner North (Part of SALP policy SA6), Binfield Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 550 BFC 1191 1191 Jennetts Park Residential C3 (flats), C3 (dwellings) C3, Flats Dwellings 1481 BFC 382 382 Land at former Staff College, Broad Lane (The Parks) Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 728 BFC 308 308 Winchester House, Market Place (Land within Town Centre) Residential C3 (flats), C3 (dwellings) C3, Flats Dwellings 311 BFC 384 387 Land at Former TRL Site, Nine Mile Ride (SALP policy SA5), Crowthorne Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 1000 BFC 375 339 Warfield, (SALP SA9) Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 2200 BFC 315 315 Foundation House, Eastern Road. (Part of SALP Policy SA1) (The Quarters) Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 123 BFC 379 378 Blue Mountain Golf Club and Conference Centre Wood Lane (SALP Policy SA7) Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 400 BFC 302 304 Amber House and Northgate House, Market Street Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 193 BFC 344 344 Aspect 1-3, Wokingham Road, Bracknell Town Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 146 BFC 401 401 Land at Lower Broadmoor Road and Cricket Field Grove, Crowthorne Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 130 BFC 301 310 Land West of Alford Close and 96 and 98 High Street (SALP Policy SA3) Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 108 BFC 315 315 Eastern Road (Part of SALP Policy SA1) (The Quarters) Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 123 BFC 308 308 One Thames Valley House, Wokingham Road Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 130 BFC 375 339 Land East of Avery Lane and North of Watersplash Lane (SALP Policy SA9 Area 1) Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 116 BFC 302 304 Bus Depot and Offices, Coldborough House, Market Street (The Grand Exchange) Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 242 HDC 490 490 DEMOLITION OF THE EXISTING OFFICE BUILDINGS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SITE FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF 313 RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 313 HDC 484 484 RESERVED MATTERS FOLLOWING OUTLINE (14/00733/MAJOR) FOR ERECTION OF 300 DWELLINGS. Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 300 HDC 484 484 North East Hook, London Road, Hook Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 548 HDC 490 490 Sun Park, Guillemont Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 313 SBC 440 440 Brunel Way, Slough, Berkshire. Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 343 SBC 440 440 Langley Business Centre, Station Road, SL3 8DS Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 300 SBC 440 440 Canal Basin, Stoke Road Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 240 SBC 440 440 Aspire 2 Site, Corner of Church Street and Herschel Street, Slough, SL1 1PG Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 238 SBC 440 440 Former Thames Valley University and car park, Wellington Street with William Street, Slough (NW quadrant of Heart of Slough Site) Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 1500 SBC 440 440 Horlicks, Stoke Poges Lane Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 600 SBC 440 440 Akzo Nobel, Wexham Road, SL2 5DS Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 750 SBC 440 440 Queensmere and Observatory Shopping Centres, Wellington Street, Slough, Berkshire, SL1 1LN Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 675 SBC 440 440 Trade Sales and Bath Road, Cippenham Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 200 SBC 440 440 Mill Street North Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 200 SBC 440 440 Stoke Gardens Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 200 SBC 440 440 Petersfield Avenue North Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 200 SBC 440 440 National Grid, Uxbridge Road, SL2 5NA Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 300 SBC 440 440 Tesco, Wellington Street, Slough, SL1 1XW Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 230 SBC 440 440 Canal Wharf, Langley Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 200 SOVWHDC 1056 1056 Land adjoining Lester Way Wallingford OX10 9TA Employment B1 B1 sqm 16420 SOVWHDC 1056 1056 Land adjoining Lester Way Wallingford OX10 9TA Employment B8 B8 sqm 16420 SOVWHDC 1060 1060 Land west of Main AvenueCulham Science Centrenear Clifton Hampden OX14 3DB Employment B1 B1 sqm 9000 SOVWHDC 1056 1056 Land at Lupton Road WALLINGFORD Employment B1 B1 sqm 7165

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SOVWHDC 1018 1018 Monument Park Chalgrove OX44 7RW Employment B1 B1 sqm 5250 SOVWHDC 1060 1060 UK A E ACulham Science Centre near Clifton Hampden OX14 3DB Employment B1 B1 sqm 3700 SOVWHDC 1175 1175 Land at Sheephouse FarmReading Roadnear Henley-on-Thames RG9 4HF Employment B1 B1 sqm 3444 SOVWHDC 1060 1060 Land east of Main Way & north of High Way Culham Science Centre Culham Employment B1 B1 sqm 3322 SOVWHDC 1060 1060 Vogue International Ltd Tower Road Berinsfield OX10 7LN Employment D2 D2, leisure centre sqm 3301 SOVWHDC 1175 1175 Highlands FarmHighlands LaneRotherfield Greys RG9 4PR Employment B1 B1 sqm 1250 SOVWHDC 1175 1175 Highlands FarmHighlands LaneRotherfield Greys RG9 4PR Employment D1 D1, non-resi sqm 1250 SOVWHDC 1060 1060 Earth Trust Centre Little Wittenham OX14 4QZ Employment A3 A3 sqm 624 SOVWHDC 1060 1060 Earth Trust Centre Little Wittenham OX14 4QZ Employment D1 D1, non-resi sqm 624 SOVWHDC 1107 1107 3-5 Market Place Broadway DIDCOT OX11 7LE Employment A1 A1, food sqm 963 SOVWHDC 1060 1060 Building F5 Culham Science Centre near Clifton Hampden OX14 3DB Employment D1 D1, non-resi sqm 840 SOVWHDC 1060 1060 Building F7Culham Science Centrenear Clifton Hampden OX14 3DB Employment D1 D1, non-resi sqm 712 SOVWHDC 1064 1064 Ladygrove East - Land off A4130, Hadden Hill, Didcot Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 642 SOVWHDC 1018 1018 Benson NDP: Site BEN 3/4 Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 240 SOVWHDC 1053 1053 Littleworth Road, Benson - Phase 2 Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 241 SOVWHDC 1056 1056 Land to the West of Wallingford (Site B), Wallingford Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 555 SOVWHDC 1018 1018 Land West of Marley Lane, Chalgrove Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 200 SOVWHDC 1064 1064 Land to the north east of Didcot Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 1880 SOVWHDC 1056 1056 Site E, Wallingford Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 502 SOVWHDC 1057 1057 Fairmile Hospital, Cholsey Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 354 SOVWHDC 1065 1065 Didcot Gateway Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 300 SOVWHDC 1065 1065 Orchard Centre Phase 2 Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 300 SOVWHDC 1065 1065 Vauxhall Baracks Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 300 SOVWHDC 1068 1068 Land at former Didcot A Power Station Purchas Road Didcot Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 280 WDC 1073 1073 Gomm Valley and Ashwells High Wycombe Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 530 WDC 1073 1073 Hollands Farm north Bourne End Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 467 WDC 1074 1074 Great Marlow School Bobmore Lane Marlow Buckinghamshire SL7 1JD Employment D1 D1, non-resi sqm 913.5 WDC 1073 1073 Amersham And Wycombe College Spring Lane Flackwell Heath Buckinghamshire HP10 9HE Employment D1 D1, non-resi sqm 1004 WDC 1074 1074 Emerson Network Power Fourth Avenue Marlow Buckinghamshire SL7 1YG Employment D1 D1, non-resi sqm 2361 WDC 1073 1073 Glory Park Avenue Wooburn Green Bucks Employment B1 B1 sqm 10871 RBWM 476 476 Railway Station Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 0 RBWM 476 476 Reform Road Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 150 RBWM 476 476 Saint Cloud Way Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 150 RBWM 476 476 West Street Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 500 RBWM 476 476 York Road Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 240 RBWM 476 476 Maidenhead Golf Course Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 320 RBWM 475 475 Land South of Harvest Hill Road Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 2000 RBWM 476 476 Land South of Manor Lane Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 390 RBWM 474 474 Ascot Town Centre Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 220 RBWM 475 475 Land west of Windsor, north and south of the A308 Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 300 RBWM 476 476 Boyn Valley Industrial Estate Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 450 RBWM 475 475 Land between Windsor Road and Bray Lake, south of Maidenhead Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 240 RBWM 476 476 Whitebrook Park, including east of Whitebrook Park Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 100 RBWM 473 473 Land east of Woodlands Park Avenue & north of Woodlands Business Park Residential C3 (dwellings) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 175 RBWM 476 476 Land known as Spencer's farm, north of Lutman Lane Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 300 RBWM 473 473 Land north of Breadcroft Lane and south of the railway line Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 500 RBWM 475 475 Land west of Monkey island Lane, including water treatment works Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 100 RBWM 476 476 Summerleaze, Summerleaze Road Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 100 RBWM 474 474 Heatherwood Hospital, Ascot Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 130 RBWM 474 474 Sunningsdale Park Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 250 RBWM 472 472 Land north of Lower Mount Farm, Long Lane Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 230 RBWM 475 475 Land north and east of Churchmead Secondary School, Priory Road Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 200 RBWM 475 475 Land at Slough Road/Riding Court Road Residential C3 (flats) C3, Flats Dwellings 175 RBWM 474 474 Land east of Queen Mother Reservoir Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 150 RBWM 473 473 Grove Business Park Residential C3 (dwellings), C3 (flats) C3, Dwelling Dwellings 100 RBWM 476 476 Foundation Business Park Employment B1 B1 sqm 66 RBWM 476 476 Norreys Drive (south) Employment B1 B1 sqm 7781 RBWM 476 476 Vanwall Business Park Employment B1 B1 sqm 7094 RBWM 475 475 Fairacres Industrial Estate Employment B8 B8 sqm 31333 RBWM 476 476 Norreys Drive (north) Employment B1 B1 sqm 344 RBWM 476 476 Norreys Drive (south) Employment B1 B1 sqm 14269 RBWM 476 476 Cordwallis Industrial Estate Employment B8 B8 sqm 17417

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RBWM 475 475 Vansittart Road Industrial Estate Employment B8 B8 sqm 1701 RBWM 476 476 Howarth Road Industrial Estate Employment B8 B8 sqm 416 RBWM 476 476 Furze Platt Industrial Estate Employment B8 B8 sqm 425 RBWM 475 475 Alma Road Employment B1 B1 sqm 443 RBWM 475 475 Triangle of land enclosed by the A330, M4 and A308M Employment B1 B1 sqm 13862 RBWM 473 473 Maidenhead Office Park Employment B1 B1 sqm 2769

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Appendix B TEMPro Growth Factors 2015 to 2036

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Table B-1 TEMPro unadjusted and adjusted factors AM time period for a Car Driver (2015 – 2036) 2036 Scenario A and B TEMPro Commute Employers Business Other Origin Destination Origin Destination Origin Destination

Wokingham

Unadjusted 1.24 1.15 1.21 1.16 1.39 1.32

Adjusted 0.88 1.03 0.98 1.06 1.02 1.11

Reading

Unadjusted 1.22 1.15 1.20 1.17 1.33 1.29

Adjusted 1.10 1.04 1.09 1.06 1.20 1.18

Bracknell Forest

Unadjusted 1.09 1.14 1.13 1.16 1.26 1.27

Adjusted 0.95 1.13 1.06 1.16 1.13 1.22

West Berkshire

Unadjusted 1.06 1.13 1.12 1.16 1.26 1.27

Adjusted 0.99 1.13 1.09 1.16 1.19 1.25

Basingstoke

Unadjusted 1.17 1.13 1.17 1.15 1.35 1.30

Adjusted 1.08 1.06 1.09 1.08 1.25 1.21

Hart

Unadjusted 0.93 1.12 1.05 1.15 1.14 1.22

Adjusted 0.90 1.12 1.03 1.15 1.11 1.21

Slough

Unadjusted 1.17 1.14 1.17 1.16 1.29 1.28

Adjusted 1.06 1.13 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.25

South Oxon

Unadjusted 1.14 1.13 1.16 1.15 1.30 1.28

Adjusted 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.21 1.21 Vale of White Horse

Unadjusted 1.29 1.14 1.24 1.15 1.43 1.34

Adjusted 1.29 1.14 1.24 1.15 1.42 1.33

Wycombe

Unadjusted 1.08 1.13 1.13 1.15 1.24 1.27

Adjusted 1.07 1.12 1.12 1.14 1.23 1.26

Windsor and Maidenhead

Unadjusted 1.05 1.13 1.12 1.16 1.22 1.26

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2036 Scenario A and B TEMPro Commute Employers Business Other Origin Destination Origin Destination Origin Destination

Adjusted 0.94 1.03 1.01 1.06 1.10 1.15

Table B-2 TEMPro unadjusted and adjusted factors in the Interpeak time period for a Car Driver (2015 – 2036) 2036 Scenario A and B TEMPro Commute Employers Business Other Origin Destination Origin Destination Origin Destination

Wokingham

Unadjusted 1.18 1.20 1.17 1.17 1.34 1.34

Adjusted 0.98 0.94 1.02 1.02 1.05 1.06

Reading

Unadjusted 1.18 1.19 1.17 1.17 1.30 1.29

Adjusted 1.07 1.08 1.06 1.06 1.17 1.17

Bracknell Forest

Unadjusted 1.13 1.12 1.14 1.14 1.26 1.25

Adjusted 1.07 1.03 1.11 1.11 1.17 1.17

West Berkshire

Unadjusted 1.11 1.10 1.14 1.14 1.25 1.25

Adjusted 1.08 1.05 1.12 1.12 1.20 1.20

Basingstoke

Unadjusted 1.16 1.17 1.15 1.15 1.31 1.30

Adjusted 1.08 1.08 1.07 1.07 1.22 1.21

Hart

Unadjusted 1.05 1.01 1.10 1.10 1.17 1.17

Adjusted 1.04 0.99 1.09 1.09 1.14 1.14

Slough

Unadjusted 1.15 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.27 1.27

Adjusted 1.11 1.09 1.13 1.14 1.21 1.20

South Oxon

Unadjusted 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.15 1.28 1.28

Adjusted 1.07 1.06 1.08 1.08 1.20 1.20 Vale of White Horse

Unadjusted 1.20 1.24 1.17 1.17 1.36 1.37

Adjusted 1.20 1.23 1.17 1.17 1.36 1.36

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2036 Scenario A and B TEMPro Commute Employers Business Other Origin Destination Origin Destination Origin Destination

Wycombe

Unadjusted 1.11 1.10 1.13 1.13 1.24 1.24

Adjusted 1.10 1.09 1.12 1.12 1.22 1.23

Windsor and Maidenhead

Unadjusted 1.11 1.09 1.13 1.14 1.23 1.23

Adjusted 1.00 0.98 1.03 1.03 1.11 1.11

Table B-3 TEMPro unadjusted and adjusted factors PM time period for a Car Driver (2015 – 2036) 2036 Scenario A and B TEMPro Commute Employers Business Other Origin Destination Origin Destination Origin Destination Wokingham

Unadjusted 1.14 1.22 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.31

Adjusted 1.01 0.88 1.03 0.94 1.03 1.00

Reading

Unadjusted 1.13 1.21 1.16 1.21 1.24 1.26

Adjusted 1.03 1.08 1.05 1.09 1.13 1.14

Bracknell Forest

Unadjusted 1.12 1.08 1.14 1.12 1.20 1.20

Adjusted 1.11 0.94 1.13 1.02 1.12 1.10

West Berkshire

Unadjusted 1.12 1.05 1.14 1.11 1.20 1.20

Adjusted 1.11 0.99 1.13 1.06 1.16 1.14

Basingstoke

Unadjusted 1.12 1.16 1.15 1.17 1.25 1.26

Adjusted 1.05 1.07 1.07 1.08 1.16 1.17

Hart

Unadjusted 1.10 0.93 1.12 1.01 1.12 1.10

Adjusted 1.09 0.90 1.11 0.99 1.11 1.07

Slough

Unadjusted 1.13 1.16 1.15 1.17 1.22 1.23

Adjusted 1.12 1.05 1.14 1.11 1.16 1.15

South Oxon

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2036 Scenario A and B TEMPro Commute Employers Business Other Origin Destination Origin Destination Origin Destination

Unadjusted 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.23 1.24

Adjusted 1.05 1.04 1.08 1.07 1.15 1.16 Vale of White Horse

Unadjusted 1.13 1.28 1.16 1.25 1.31 1.35

Adjusted 1.13 1.27 1.16 1.25 1.30 1.34

Wycombe

Unadjusted 1.11 1.07 1.14 1.11 1.20 1.19

Adjusted 1.10 1.06 1.13 1.10 1.18 1.18

Windsor and Maidenhead

Unadjusted 1.12 1.04 1.14 1.10 1.19 1.17

Adjusted 1.02 0.93 1.04 0.99 1.08 1.06

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Appendix C Reference Case Scenarios A and B Convergence Outputs

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The analysis in this appendix, includes a presentation of convergence statistics to show that the Reference Case Scenario A and Scenario B models are stable and conform with DfT TAG for model convergence. Before the results of any traffic assignment are used to influence decisions, TAG requires that the stability and degree of convergence of the assignment must be confirmed at the appropriate level. Inadequate convergence is likely to result in unstable and unreliable forecasts. A converged assignment is one where the assigned flows and the resulting travel costs are consistent. Convergence also has to be achieved between the highway or supply model and demand model. A converged demand/supply loop is one where the demands are consistent with the travel costs in the supply model.

Convergence

This section reports on key parameters of the Scenarios A and B to demonstrate that the models are behaving logically and accord with DfT TAG. This includes consideration of:

 Demand Supply Gap to demonstrate convergence between robustness of the VDM and convergence;

 Highway Assignment Convergence and/or stability; and

 Highway and PT matrix changes between the Reference Case and post VDM assignments.

Demand – Supply Model Convergence

The Demand – Supply convergence is measured by the % gap between supply and demand curves. Perfectly converged models would have a % gap of zero. TAG recommends values of less than 0.2% (TAG Unit M2). Table C-1 shows the results for Scenario A and B are compliant with the TAG as the Demand Supple GAP percentages are 0.15% and 0.18% respectively.

Table C-1 Demand - Supply Convergence for Scenarios A and B Scenario Demand Supply GAP A 0.15% B 0.18%

Highway Assignment Model Convergence Scenario A and B

Convergence of the highway assignment models is necessary to providing robust and consistent model outputs that can be relied upon to inform subsequent economic appraisals. Better convergence gives confidence that model outputs are attributable to the impacts of any intervention proposals rather than ‘noise’ in the model. The main measure of convergence of assignment models is % Gap. TAG recommends a guideline target value of 0.1% or less. Additionally, TAG recommends that the proportion of links for which changes in in traffic volumes and/or link costs is less than 1% should be at least 98% for four consecutive iterations.

The Post VDM highway assignment convergence statistics are reported in Table C-2 and Table C-3. It is noted that the %Flow criteria are generally met in all scenarios.

Table C-2 Scenario A Highway Convergence Statistics Scenario Iteration % Flow % Gap Delta A 19 98.98% 0.090% 20 99.33% 0.096% AM 21 99.23% 0.097% 22 99.89% 0.095%

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Scenario Iteration % Flow % Gap Delta A 6 99.18% 0.090% 7 99.84% 0.088% IP 8 99.24% 0.084% 9 99.87% 0.094% 16 99.85% 0.098% 17 99.54% 0.095% PM 18 99.77% 0.099% 19 99.91% 0.091%

Table C-3 Scenario B Highway Convergence Statistics Scenario Iteration % Flow % Gap Delta B 19 99.00% 0.096% 20 99.42% 0.092% AM 21 99.49% 0.088% 22 99.95% 0.094% 6 99.19% 0.099% 7 99.77% 0.099% IP 8 99.16% 0.096% 9 99.93% 0.097% 16 99.75% 0.099% 17 99.77% 0.086% PM 18 99.75% 0.094% 19 99.81% 0.092%

Pre and Post VDM Matrix Changes

This section reports on the matrix changes between Scenario A and B prior to application of VDM (Pre VDM) and after the application of VDM (post VDM matrices). This accounted for any suppression effects that might arise as a result of the constraints placed by network capacity on demands when the unconstrained Reference Case Forecasts are assigned. Before VDM, the demands in the matrices may not be consistent with available network capacity leading to unrealistic delays and congestion. VDM adjusts the unconstrained demand resulting in post VDM demands that are more consistent with network capacity. A summary of the trip numbers for the reference case (before VDM) and post VDM without the scheme (DM) are shown in Table C-4 and Table C-5 for highway trips and PT trips. The results generally show modest differences between the Pre VDM and Post VDM matrices. The results are reasonable and show that the models are behaving logically. In the main, the Post VDM car matrices are noticeably lower than the Pre VDM matrices and the difference represents suppressed demand i.e. those trips that would not be able to be made because of capacity constraints in the network.

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Table C-4 Scenario A Pre and Post VDM Matrix Changes - Highway and PT Trips

PRE VDM POST VDM User Class AM Inter PM AM Inter PM Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Private Car Commute 105446 32259 72042 100257 30767 69722 Private Car 11650 9198 12482 10539 8427 11768 Employer/Business Private Car Other 27350 54957 65393 24956 51109 61430 Private LGV 13640 14637 13815 13640 14637 13815 Private HGV 2498 3525 2708 2498 3525 2708 Scenario A Public Commute 30504 14894 22870 35688 17187 25420 Public 2763 860 1793 4854 2044 2726 Employer/Business Public Other 5744 6548 7199 14391 12638 13646 Private Transport Total 160584 114575 166440 151889 108465 159443 Public Transport Total 39011 22302 31863 54933 31869 41792

Table C-5 Scenario B Pre and Post VDM Matrix Changes - Highway and PT Trips

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Appendix D Scenario C Convergence Outputs

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Demand-Supply Convergence

There is no demand – supply convergence to report for Scenarios C as the VDM element of the model was not used in these Scenarios. This is due to there being no public transport elements added to Scenario C that were not included in Scenarios A and B. This meant that there could then be a direct comparison between Scenarios A, B and C.

Highway Assignment Model Convergence

The Highway Assignment model convergence for Scenario C1, C2, C3 and C4 has been reported in Table D-1, Table D-2 and Table D-3. It is noted that convergence criteria are met for all time periods for all Scenario C models.

Table D-1 Scenario C1 Highway Convergence Statistics Scenario C1 Iteration % Flow % Gap Delta 26 99.23% 0.098% 27 99.76% 0.095% AM 28 99.56% 0.090% 29 99.73% 0.091% 6 99.07% 0.095% 7 99.75% 0.091% IP 8 99.13% 0.097% 9 99.91% 0.097% 15 99.29% 0.097% 16 99.68% 0.093% PM 17 99.64% 0.096% 18 99.85% 0.098%

Table D-2 Scenario C2 Highway Convergence Statistics Scenario C2 Iteration % Flow % Gap Delta 26 99.56% 0.094% 27 99.68% 0.098% AM 28 99.52% 0.097% 29 99.83% 0.098% 6 99.16% 0.088% 7 99.75% 0.095% IP 8 99.22% 0.093% 9 99.86% 0.094% 15 99.44% 0.096% 16 99.54% 0.099% PM 17 99.76% 0.098% 18 99.81% 0.096%

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Table D-3 Scenario C3 Highway Convergence Statistics Scenario C3 Iteration % Flow % Gap Delta 19 99.01% 0.093% 20 99.40% 0.099% AM 21 99.47% 0.098% 22 99.91% 0.083% 6 99.18% 0.096% 7 99.79% 0.098% IP 8 99.09% 0.088% 9 99.91% 0.093% 16 99.59% 0.093% 17 99.84% 0.097% PM 18 99.79% 0.097% 19 99.85% 0.097%

Table D-4 Scenario C4 Highway Convergence Statistics

Scenario C4 Iteration % Flow % Gap Delta

19 98.97% 0.094%

AM 20 99.39% 0.093% 21 99.45% 0.089% 22 99.94% 0.093% 6 99.16% 0.099% 7 99.82% 0.098% IP 8 99.17% 0.094% 9 99.89% 0.095% 15 99.41% 0.107% 16 99.70% 0.098% PM 17 99.80% 0.097% 18 99.74% 0.095%

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Appendix E Maps of Maximum Volume Capacity Ratios in Wokingham Boundary for AM Peak Period

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Appendix F Maps of Maximum Volume Capacity Ratios in Wokingham Boundary for PM Peak Period

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Appendix G Maximum V/C Overview of Model Area

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Appendix H Flow Difference Maps

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Appendix I Delay Difference Maps

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