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Programme In International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) Union internationale pour l’étude scientifique de la population (UIESP) XXVIII International Population Conference XXVIIIe Congrès international de la population PROGRAMME Cape Town, South Africa 29 October–4 November 2017 IUSSP – UIESP 3-5, rue Nicolas, 75980 Paris cedex 20, France Tel: +33 1 56 06 21 73 Fax: +33 1 56 06 22 04 E-mail: [email protected] / web: www.iussp.org 1 International Organising Committee (IOC) / Comité international d’organisation (CIO) IOC President / Président du CIO: Pali Lehohla (Statistician General, Statistics South Africa) IOC Vice President / Vice-présidente du CIO: Anastasia Gage (IUSSP President) IUSSP Council Anastasia Gage* (President, Sierra Leone/United States) ▪ Thomas LeGrand* (Vice President, Canada) ▪ France Meslé* (Secretary General and Treasurer, France) ▪ Sajeda Amin (United States) ▪ Ann Biddlecom (United States) ▪ Emily Grundy (United Kingdom) ▪ Fatima Juárez (Mexico) ▪ Øystein Kravdal (Norway) ▪ David Lam (United States) ▪ Edith Pantelides (Argentina) ▪ Parfait M. Eloundou Enyegue* (Cameroon) ▪ Tom Moultrie (South Africa) ▪ Sureeporn Punpuing (Thailand) Ex Officio Members John Wilmoth (United Nations Population Division) Akinyele Eric Dairo (UNFPA regional representative for Southern Africa) Steering Committee of the South African National Organising Committee (NOC) Calvin Molongoana* ▪ Themba Mohoto* ▪ Trevor Oosterwyk* (Statistics South Africa) Conference Secretary / Secrétaire du Congrès: Mary Ellen Zuppan* (IUSSP) National Organising Committee (NOC) / Comité national d’organisation (CNO) Calvin Molongoana* (Project Director: Statistics South Africa) ▪ Themba Mohoto* (Project Manager: Statistics South Africa ▪ Trevor Oosterwyk* (Communication & Marketing: Statistics South Africa) ▪ Kefiloe Masiteng (Presidency) ▪ Diego Iturralde (Population Association of South Africa) ▪ Christine Khoza (Scientific Program: Statistics South Africa) ▪ Phillip Lesame (Provincial Offices: Statistics South Africa) ▪ Mary Mathe (Geography High School Educators) ▪ Mark Collinson (Wits Rural Health Research Facility) ▪ Monde Makiwane (Human Sciences Research Council) ▪ Nompumelelo Nzimande (University of Kwa-Zulu Natal) ▪ Frederick Okwayo (UNFPA) ▪ Jacques van Zuydam (Department of Social Development) ▪ Phindiwe Mbhele (Department of Home Affairs) ▪ Lerisha Mudaliar Western Cape Business & Tourism) Local Organising Team Calvin Molongoana (Project Director) ▪ Themba Mohoto (Project Manager) ▪ Neo Nghenavo (Secretariat) ▪ Trevor Oosterwyk (Communications) ▪ Bheki Mathunjwa (Finance) ▪ Diego Iturralde (PASA) ▪ Christine Khoza (Scientific Programme) ▪ Phillip Lesame (Provinces) ▪ Michelle Voster (Cape Town Stats SA) ▪ Waleed Jacobs (Cape Town Stats SA) ▪ Michael Makgopo (Stats SA) ▪ Rudzani Matamela (Stats SA) IUSSP Secretariat Mary Ellen Zuppan* (Executive Director), Paul Monet (Deputy Executive Director), Philippe Migrenne (Membership Officer and Webmaster), Adelaide Twumasi (Financial and Administrative Officer), Peggy Gelernter (Conference Assistant). *Members of the IOC Steering Committee / Membres du Comité de pilotage du CIO 2 Table of Contents / Table des matières International Organising Committee (IOC) 2 Comité international d’organisation (CIO) Introduction 4 Message from the President of the International Organising Committee 6 Message du président du Comité international d’organisation Scientific Programme Committee 8 Comité scientifique du programme Acknowledgements 10 Remerciements Sponsored Research Leader Sessions 12 Séances sponsorisées Side Meetings 14 Réunions parallèles Exhibitors 17 Exposants Programme schedule 18 Calendrier de la semaine Chronological List of Sessions 19 Liste chronologique des séances IPC 2017 Scientific Programme 36 Programme scientifique du Congrès de 2017 Index of Participants 229 Index des participants 2014-2017 IUSSP Council and past officers 260 Conseil de l’UIESP 2014-2017 et anciens présidents et secrétaires généraux 3 Introduction Statistics South Africa, on behalf of the Republic of South Africa, will host the 28th International Population Conference at the Cape Town International Conference Centre (CTICC) from 29 October to 4 November 2017. The Conference will open on Sunday 29 October and conclude on Friday 3 November with side meetings on Saturday 28 October and 4 November 2017. The scientific programme includes over 1, 600 scientific communications presented in 240 scientific and plenary sessions and in 62 thematic poster sessions, as well as training sessions, side meetings and exhibitions. The General Assembly of IUSSP members will be held in two meetings. A short meeting of the General Assembly will take place on Monday 30 October, 1:00 to 1:30 pm in Ballroom West where members will designate a committee to review the proposed amendments to the IUSSP Constitution. The main IUSSP General Assembly will take place on Wednesday 1 November at 7 pm in Ballroom West. The South African National Organising Committee (NOC) has organized an Africa Day, which includes seven sessions that were part of the Call for papers, as well as a special invited opening session that will take place on 31 October in Auditorium 2. The Africa Day Plenary on Demographic data challenges for reporting on the Sustainable Development Goals in Africa will take place on 1 November in Auditorium 2. The Africa day sessions focus on issues of importance to Africa and the Southern Africa region covering demographic trends in the region as well as focusing on specific population and policy challenges: achieving the Demographic Dividend, providing education and employment for Africa’s youth, and collecting and analyzing the demographic data required to evaluate progress towards meeting the continent’s development goals. In addition to the Africa Day sessions, there are sessions throughout the week in the regular programme that feature research from the continent. The NOC will organize a gala event for all delegates on the evening of Thursday 2 November. The International Organising Committee (IOC) and the NOC gratefully acknowledge the many people who volunteered their time and expertise to develop this Conference. The IOC is particularly grateful to the theme conveners and organizers of scientific sessions, to the reviewers who assisted in vetting the abstracts received in response to the call for papers, and to the thousands of scholars worldwide who showed an interest in the Conference by submitting paper abstracts and preparing scientific papers and posters. 4 Introduction Statistics South Africa, sous l’égide de la République d’Afrique du sud, accueille le XXVIIIe Congrès international de la population au Centre de conférences internationales du Cap (CTICC) du 29 octobre au 4 novembre 2017. Le Congrès débutera le dimanche 29 octobre 2017 et s’achèvera le vendredi 3 novembre 2017. Des séances parallèles se tiendront les samedi 28 octobre et 4 novembre. Le programme scientifique comprend plus de 1 600 communications réparties dans 240 séances plénières et régulières, et 62 séances posters thématiques, ainsi que des sessions de formation, des réunions parallèles et des stands d’exposition. L’Assemblée générale des membres de l’UIESP se tiendra en deux réunions. Une courte réunion se tiendra le lundi 30 octobre de 13h à 13h30 dans la salle Ballroom West, pour désigner le comité de révision des amendements aux statuts de l’UIESP proposés. L’Assemblée générale principale se tiendra le mercredi 1er novembre à 19h dans la salle Ballroom West. Le Comité national d'organisation (CNO) sud-africain a organisé une Journée Afrique, qui comprend sept séances incluses dans l’appel à communications ainsi qu’une séance invitée d’ouverture, qui se tiendra le 31 octobre dans l’Auditorium 2. La séance plénière de la Journée Afrique « Les défis posés par le besoin de données démographiques pour suivre l'avancement des Objectifs de développement durable en Afrique » se tiendra le 1er novembre dans l’Auditorium 2. L’ensemble de ces séances portent sur des questions cruciales pour l’Afrique, et plus particulièrement l’Afrique australe, couvrant aussi bien les tendances démographiques que les enjeux spécifiques en matière de population et de politiques : réalisation du dividende démographique, accès à l’éducation et à l’emploi pour les jeunes, collecte et analyse des données démographiques nécessaires à l’évaluation des progrès vers les objectifs de développement du continent. En plus des séances spécifiques de la Journée Afrique, nombre de séances dans le programme général seront consacrées tout au long de la semaine à des recherches portant sur le continent africain. Enfin le CNO invite tous les participants au Congrès à un diner de gala le jeudi 2 novembre au soir. Le Comité international d’organisation (CIO) et le CNO remercient chaleureusement toutes les personnes qui ont bénévolement consacré leur temps et leur expertise pour réaliser ce congrès. Le CIO est particulièrement reconnaissant envers les responsables de thèmes, les organisateurs des séances scientifiques, les évaluateurs qui ont procédé à la sélection des résumés soumis en réponse à l’appel à communications ainsi qu’aux milliers de chercheurs qui, de par le monde, ont manifesté leur intérêt pour ce congrès en soumettant des résumés et en préparant des communications scientifiques et des posters. 5 Message from the President of the International Organising Committee / Message du Président du Comité international d’organisation Spurred on by interesting innuendos in Africa’s
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