Frequency of Hurricanes' Driven Floods Not Increasing Under Global

Journal of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Vol. 1, No. 2, 2016, pp. 44-59 http://www.aiscience.org/journal/jeas

Frequency of Hurricanes’ Driven Floods not Increasing Under Global Warming

A. Parker *

School of Engineering and Physical Science, James Cook University, Townsville QLD, Australia

Abstract It has been claimed from the analysis of the data collected over the last 216 years that the frequency of Hurricane Sandy-like floods has increased from once every 1,200 years to once every 400 years. This statement is wrong. The data suggest that across the continental US and NY City the frequency of hurricanes is reducing while the sea levels are rising not dramatically and without any acceleration component. 2012 Hurricane Sandy occurred 21.19 years after 1991 Hurricane Bob. Since the late 1930s, the prior 9 Hurricanes occurred after a delay of 6.33 years on average, maximum 11.69 years, minimum 0.03 years (Hurricane Edna of category-1 occurred on 11-Sep-1954, only 11 days after category-3 Hurricane Carol of 31-Aug-1954). Across the continental US, the number of hurricanes per decade has been reducing at a rate of -0.256% per year, or -2.56% per decade, since 1851. In NY City, the sea levels are rising +2.84 mm/year with no acceleration. Across the continental US, on average the sea levels are rising +1.77 mm/year also with no acceleration. No statistic can be made without good quality data spanning a significant amount of time that for climate studies should be at least above 60 years. Definitively no statistic can be computed over time scales not covered by any data.

Keywords Sea Level Rise, Sea Level Oscillations, Sea Level Acceleration, Hurricanes, United States, New York

Received: November 5, 2016 / Accepted: December 20, 2016 / Published online: January 9, 2017 @ 2016 The Authors. Published by American Institute of Science. This Open Access article is under the CC BY license. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

in summarizing the findings. “A study estimates the 1. Introduction frequency of future Hurricane Sandy-like floods in New York City. The storm surge due to Hurricane Sandy caused Ref. [1] investigates the frequency of Hurricane Sandy- flooding nearly 3 m above high tide in New York City in level floods in NY City from 1800 to present. They assume October 2012. The frequency at which such flooding occurs the frequency varies with changes in sea-levels and storm varies with changes in sea level and storm surge climatology, surge climatology. They estimate the frequency of future and estimating changes in this frequency over time could be floods from past sea-levels’ proxies and tide-gauge valuable for risk mitigation. Ning Lin and colleagues measurements and future sea-levels climate models’ examined how the frequency of Sandy-level floods in New predictions. They say the frequency of hurricane Sandy-like York City has changed from 1800 to the present, and flooding has approximately tripled since 1800, from once estimated the frequency of future floods. The authors every 1,200 years to once every 400 years. It will increase estimated past sea levels from historical data and future sea to once every 90 years by 2100 due to the effects of sea- levels from probabilistic projections under moderate level rise alone, with changes in storm climatology greenhouse gas emissions. Further, the authors used affecting the estimated frequency from once in 23 years to reanalysis data and global climate models to estimate the once in 130 years. current and future frequency and severity of storms. The The highlights of the paper in PNAS, Ref. [2], is quite clear authors estimated that the frequency of Sandy-level floods

* Corresponding author E-mail address: [email protected], [email protected] 45 A. Parker: Frequency of Hurricanes’ Driven Floods not Increasing Under Global Warming

has approximately tripled since 1800, from once every 1,200 2. Hurricanes Data years to once every 400 years, and is likely to increase to once every 90 years by the year 2100 due to the effects of sea The continental US coastline has been calm over the last level rise alone. When future changes in storm climatology decade, as shown in Ref. [4]. The list of 1850-2015 were taken into account, the estimated frequency in 2100 continental US hurricanes officially recorded to have varied from once in 23 years to once in 130 years, depending produced sustained winds of speed greater than 74 mph in the on the particular climate model used, according to the HURDAT data base does not show any increasing trend. authors. ” Actually it is the opposite, Figure 1. There is an oscillatory pattern about a sharply declining trend with the number-of- Ref. [3], tell us that “For an experiment or survey: events reducing -0.256% per year. As it is more likely to Relative frequency = number of times the event happens ÷ have missed some events in the far past rather than recently, total number of trials. For example, if you observed 100 the true trend is very likely even more negative. The full list passing cars and found that 23 of them were red, the of hurricanes that impacted/landed in the continental US is relative frequency is 23/100.” This means that if we reported in Appendix 1. observe how many years since 1800 had hurricane Sandy- like floods, there has been for sure one, Sandy, and In the case of the Hurricanes, not only “the narrative” is possibly few more, this means the minimum frequency is conflicting with the empirical evidence. It is also conflicting 1/216 (we are in 2016). Frequencies cannot be claimed to with the climate models. While the “best climate science” increase “from once every 1,200 years to once every 400 may predict the future will hold strongest storms, it doesn’t years” looking at 216 years of data. You need at least predict at all that the future will hold more hurricanes, as also 1,200 years of data to claim that one event only occurred most of the models actually predict that there will be fewer, once every 1,200 years. Ref. [5] and Ref. [6]. Apart from basic mathematics arguments, the paper is a Table 1 presents the list of NY City Hurricanes 1850 to 2015, confusion about whether there is an increase in hurricanes, or while Figure 2 presents the number of years between increase in floods, or increase in storm surges, all without hurricane impacts/landfalls in NY City. 2012 Hurricane any proper empirical evidence to support any claim, to Sandy occurred 21.19 years after 1991 Hurricane Bob. The conclude with the alarmist statement that hurricane floods are prior 9 Hurricanes occurred after a delay of 6.33 years on on the rise because of global warming. There are hurricane average, maximum 11.69 years, minimum 0.03 years and sea-level data for up to about 165 years, and they do not (Hurricane Edna of category-1 occurred on 11-Sep-1954, support the claim. only 11 days after category-3 Hurricane Carol of 31-Aug- 1954). Since 1940, the frequency is reducing.

Figure 1. Continental US hurricane impacts/landfalls per decade 1850s to 2010s. Data from Ref. [4]. For the 2010s, a total number of 7 impacts/landfalls is considered, as 4 events actually occurred over 6 years of 10. For the 1850s, a total number of 18 impacts/landfalls is considered, as 16 events actually occurred over 9 years of 10. The number of events has diminished of -0.256% every year over the period of observation. Journal of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Vol. 1, No. 2, 2016, pp. 44-59 46

Figure 2. Number of years between hurricane impacts/landfalls in NY City. Data from Ref. [4]. Since 1940, the frequency is reducing.

Table 1. NY City Hurricanes 1850 to 2015 (from Ref. [4]).

Date of closest Years after a prior Years before a Name of hurricane Saffir-Simpson scale Year approach event subsequent event Unnamed 1 16-Sep 1858 10.98

Unnamed 1 8-Sep 1869 10.98 23.96 Unnamed 1 24-Aug 1893 23.96 1.13 Unnamed 1 10-Oct 1894 1.13 39.91 Unnamed 1 8-Sep 1934 39.91 4.04 Unnamed 3 21-Sep 1938 4.04 5.98 Unnamed 2 15-Sep 1944 5.98 9.96 Carol 3 31-Aug 1954 9.96 0.03 Edna 1 11-Sep 1954 0.03 6.00 Donna 2 12-Sep 1960 6.00 11.69 Agnes 1 22-Jun 1972 11.69 4.22 Belle 1 10-Aug 1976 4.22 9.13 Gloria 3 27-Sep 1985 9.13 5.89 Bob 2 19-Aug 1991 5.89 21.19 Sandy 1 29-Oct 2012 21.19

in The Battery because of an overwhelming land subsidence 3. Sea Level Data at fairly constant rate. Figures 3 and 4 show the mean sea levels measured in The In NY similarly to everywhere else in the US and the world, Battery and San Francisco, plus the GPS velocity of nearby the rate-of-rise of sea-levels at the tide-gauges is about GPS domes. Images are taken from Ref. [12-15]. constant and not dramatic, as shown by the present mean- sea-level trends, the linear mean-sea-level trends calculated In New York the rate of rise is stable about +2.84 mm/year in overlapping 50-year increments, the linear mean-sea- since a century. Over the last 100 years, the 50 years’ sea level trends recalculated each year, plus all the other level rises have been mostly oscillating about the same trend. acceleration parameters that have been proposed so far, Ref. Over the last decade there have been changes in the sea level [7-11]. rate of rise of the order of + tens of micrometres per year only to reflect a positive phase of the multi-decadal The rate-of-rise at The Battery tide-gauge based on monthly oscillations. In San Francisco, the changes in the sea level mean-sea-level data from 1856 to 2015 from NOAA, Ref. rate of rise over the last decade are of the order of - tens of [12], is +2.84 mm/year, and about constant, as the micrometres per year to reflect only a negative phase of the acceleration parameters are about zero, Ref. [8-12]. The same multi-decadal oscillations that is only phased subsidence of the nearby GPS dome of Battery Park from differently. SONEL, Ref. [13], is -2.12 mm/year. The sea-level is rising 47 A. Parker: Frequency of Hurricanes’ Driven Floods not Increasing Under Global Warming

c Journal of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Vol. 1, No. 2, 2016, pp. 44-59 48

d Figure 3. New York sea level rate (a, b, c) and nearby GPS dome vertical velocity (d). Images from [12, 13]. (b) The linear mean sea level trends are calculated in overlapping 50-year increments. The variability of each 50-year trend, with 95% confidence interval, is plotted against the mid-year of each 50- year period. (c) The linear mean sea level trends and 95% confidence intervals calculated from the beginning of the station record to recent years.

b 49 A. Parker: Frequency of Hurricanes’ Driven Floods not Increasing Under Global Warming

d Figure 4. San Francisco sea level rate (a, b, c) and nearby GPS dome vertical velocity (d). Images from [14, 15]. (b) The linear mean sea level trends are calculated in overlapping 50-year increments. The variability of each 50-year trend, with 95% confidence interval, is plotted against the mid-year of each 50- year period. (c) The linear mean sea level trends and 95% confidence intervals calculated from the beginning of the station record to recent years.

At the average tide gauge across the continental US, the sea political rather than scientific origin [19]. As shown in [20], a significant number of scientific papers has discredited the levels are stable, as indicated by the same values year after claim of hurricanes made worse by global warming despite year of sea level surveys as those in Reference [17]. the political pressure. The full list of tidal stations in the continental US and their sea According to Ref. [21], mid-latitude northwest Atlantic land- level rise is reported in Appendix 2. The likely subsidence of the falling cyclones are reducing under global warming. instrument may be inferred from the GPS velocities of [18]. Ref. [22] states that no long-term trend is observed in either 4. Discussion the frequency or intensities of tropical cyclones making land- fall in South China. The connection between hurricanes and global warming has According to Ref. [23], the global frequency of category 4 Journal of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Vol. 1, No. 2, 2016, pp. 44-59 50

and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant downward Ref. [35] discusses the tropical cyclone activity over the trend over the period 1990-2014. In Ref. [24], it was already western North Pacific over the period 1960 to 2011. This shown that the frequency of intense Atlantic Hurricanes activity exhibits a significant inter-decadal variation with two reduced during the prior five decades. distinct active and inactive periods. The recent period 1998 to Ref. [25] highlighted a significant reduction in the late- 2011 is inactive period. season typhoon activity over the western north Pacific 1995 The proxy reconstruction for the Gulf of Thailand of Ref. to 2011 vs. 1979 to 1994. [36] suggests that the frequency of typhoon strikes was 2–5 Ref. [26] analysed the intense tropical cyclone activities in times greater from 3900 to 7800 years BP compared to 0– the northern Indian Ocean. During the period 1980 to 2009, 3900 years BP. 21 cyclones became intense, 5 during the first decade, 11 Also based on proxies, but for the Mediterranean, South East during the central decade, and 5 during the last decade. There Spain, Ref. [37], extreme events occurred around 5250, 4000, was therefore no trend towards an increase in the number of 3600, 3010, 2300, 1350, 650, and 80 years BP. No categories 3–5 cyclones over the 30 years. comparable events have been observed during the 20 th and st Ref. [27] shows that between 1979 and 2014, the number of 21 centuries. strong cyclones in Northern Hemisphere in summer has Why hurricanes have decreased under global warming is decreased at a rate of 4% per decade. Near northeaster North unclear. As it is admitted in [38], “It is premature to conclude America, an even larger decrease was found. that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas Ref. [28] noticed the sharp decline in both the number and emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical intensity of land-falling U.S. hurricanes during the period cyclone activity.” For many years, the upper ocean 1961 to 2000. temperature has been considered the key factor [39, 40] for Based on proxies, Ref. [29] reconstructed that the Great hurricanes. According to the recent paper [41], the near- Barrier Reef of Australia experienced at least five super- surface air temperature and the moisture around the hurricane storms over the past 200 years, with the area now occupied are also crucial for sustaining a hurricane. These two other by Cairns experiencing two super-cyclones between 1800 parameters are often even more important than the upper th and 1870. The 20 century, however, was totally empty of ocean temperature [41]. Unfortunately, there is no detailed super-cyclones, with only one event since European knowledge of all the relevant parameters affecting formation settlement occurred in 1899. and development of hurricanes to explain the clearly Ref. [30] analysed the Eastern Tropical Pacific hurricane decreasing pattern in the number of hurricanes 1850-2015 of variability and landfalls on Mexican coasts. They found that Figure 1. over the period 1970-2010 the intense hurricanes Category 4 As evidence-based science is not permitted to claim what the and 5 did not show a significant trend, while the frequency of politicians do not want, the solution will be that a new weak and intense hurricanes Categories 1 to 5 decreased classification of hurricanes will be proposed soon. If other significantly at a rate of -0.95% per year. criteria different from the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, Ref. [31] analysed the tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles which provide a rating based on a hurricane’s sustained wind 1690–2007. They found no significant trends in the total speed will be redefined, with a new metric, like rainfall and number of tropical cyclones. The total number of hurricanes storm surge floods, it will be possible to claim every in the 20 th century was actually 20% lower than in previous hurricane “unprecedented” since millennia. centuries. Ref. [32] analysed based on proxies the Australian tropical 5. Conclusion cyclone activity over the past 550-1,500 years. They show There is no evidence of sea-level rising at dramatic, that the present low levels of storm activity on the mid-west accelerating rates or hurricanes occurring at increasing and north-east coasts of Australia are unprecedented. frequencies. Ref. [1] therefore does not demonstrate Ref. [33] evidenced an abrupt decrease in the tropical quantitatively that the frequency of hurricane Sandy-like cyclone activities in the South China Sea over the period extreme flood events has increased significantly over the past 2003 to 2010 vs. the period 1990 to 2002. two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over st Ref. [34] shows a decline in the number of severe tropical the 21 century. This is a supposition unsupported by actual cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the data. late nineteenth century. 51 A. Parker: Frequency of Hurricanes’ Driven Floods not Increasing Under Global Warming

Appendix 1 - List of Hurricanes Hurricane Impacts/Landfalls 1851-2015 Revised in July 2016 to include the 1956 to 1960 hurricane seasons' reanalysis as it That Impacted the Continental was defined in October 2016. To permit claims of US Since 1851 “unprecedented” events, a new classification is on the way, and the table will soon disappear. This is the table (from Ref. [5]) of Continental United States

Table A1.1. Continental United States Hurricane Impacts/Landfalls 1851-2015.

States Affected and Category by Highest Saffir- Simpson Central Max Wind Year Month Name States U.S. Category Pressure (mb) (kt) 1851 Jun TX, C1 1 974 80 ----- 1851 Aug FL, NW3; I-GA, 1 3 955 100 "Great Middle Florida" 1852 Aug AL, 3; MS, 3; LA, 2; FL, SW2, NW1 3 961 100 "Great Mobile" 1852 Sep FL, SW1 1 982 70 ----- 1852 Oct FL, NW2; I-GA, 1 2 965 90 "Middle Florida" 1853 Oct * GA, 1 1 965 70 ----- 1854 Jun TX, S1 1 982 70 ----- 1854 Sep GA, 3; SC, 2; FL, NE1 3 950 100 "Great Carolina" 1854 Sep TX, C2 2 965 90 "Matagorda" 1855 Sep LA, 3; MS, 3 3 945 110 "Middle Gulf Shore" 1856 Aug LA, 4 4 934 130 "Last Island" 1856 Aug FL, NW2; I-AL, 1; I-GA, 1 2 965 90 "Southeastern States" 1857 Sep NC, 2 2 961 90 ----- 1858 Sep NY, 1; CT, 1; RI, 1; MA, 1 1 976 80 "New England" 1859 Sep AL, 1; FL, NW1 1 982 70 ----- 1859 Oct FL, SW1, SE1 1 974 80 ----- 1860 Aug LA, 3; MS, 3; AL, 2 3 945 110 ----- 1860 Sep LA, 2; MS, 2; AL, 1 2 965 90 ----- 1860 Oct LA, 2 2 965 90 ----- 1861 Aug * FL, SW1 1 978 70 "Key West" 1861 Sep NC, 1 1 985 70 "Equinoctial" 1861 Nov NC, 1 1 985 70 "Expedition" 1862 None 1863 None 1864 None 1865 Sep LA, 2; TX, N1 2 965 90 "Sabine River" 1865 Oct FL, SW2, SE1 2 969 90 ----- 1866 Jul TX, C2 2 965 90 ----- 1867 Jun SC, 1 1 985 70 ----- 1867 Oct LA, 2; TX, S1, N1; FL, NW1 2 965 90 "Galveston" 1868 None 1869 Aug TX, C2 2 965 90 "Lower Texas Coast" 1869 Sep LA, 1 1 982 70 ----- 1869 Sep RI, 3; MA, 3; NY, 1; CT, 1 3 963 100 "Eastern New England" 1869 Oct & ME, 2; MA, 1 2 965 90 "Saxby's Gale" 1870 Jul AL, 1 1 982 70 "Mobile" 1870 Oct * FL, SW1, SE1 1 970 70 "Twin Key West (I)" 1870 Oct FL, SW1 1 977 80 "Twin Key West (II)" 1871 Aug FL, SE3, NE1, NW1 3 955 100 ----- 1871 Aug FL, SE2, NE1 2 965 90 ----- 1871 Sep FL, NW1, SW1 1 982 70 ----- 1872 None 1873 Sep FL, NW1 1 982 70 ----- 1873 Oct FL, SW3, SE2, NE1 3 959 100 ----- 1874 Sep FL, NW1; SC, 1; NC, 1 1 981 80 ----- 1875 Sep TX, C3, S2 3 955 100 ----- 1876 Sep NC, 1; VA, 1 1 980 80 ----- 1876 Oct FL, SW2, SE1 2 973 90 ----- 1877 Sep LA, 1; FL, NW1 1 982 70 ----- 1877 Oct FL, NW3; I-GA, 1 3 955 100 ----- 1878 Sep FL, NW2, SW2, NE1; SC, 1; GA, 1 2 970 90 ----- NC, 2; VA, 1; MD, 1; DE, 1; NJ, 1; I- 1878 Oct 2 963 90 ----- PA, 1 Journal of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Vol. 1, No. 2, 2016, pp. 44-59 52

States Affected and Category by Highest Saffir- Simpson Central Max Wind Year Month Name States U.S. Category Pressure (mb) (kt) 1879 Aug NC, 3; VA, 2; MA, 1 3 971 100 ----- 1879 Aug TX, N2; LA, 2 2 964 90 ----- 1879 Sep LA, 3 3 945 110 ----- 1880 Aug # TX, S3 3 931 110 ----- 1880 Aug FL, SE2, NE1, NW1 2 972 90 ----- 1880 Sep NC, 1 1 987 70 ----- 1880 Oct FL, NW1 1 982 70 ----- 1881 Aug GA, 2; SC, 1 2 970 90 ----- 1881 Sep NC, 2 2 975 90 ----- 1882 Sep FL, NW3; I-AL, 1 3 949 110 ----- 1882 Oct FL, NW1 1 985 70 ----- 1883 Sep NC, 2; SC, 1 2 965 90 ----- 1884 None 1885 Aug SC, 2; NC, 1; GA, 1; FL, NE1 2 970 90 ----- 1886 Jun TX, N2; LA, 2 2 970 85 ----- 1886 Jun FL, NW2; I-GA, 1 2 970 85 ----- 1886 Jun FL, NW2; I-GA, 1 2 970 85 ----- 1886 Jul FL, NW1 1 982 70 ----- 1886 Aug TX, C4 4 925 130 "Indianola" 1886 Sep # TX, S1, C1 1 973 80 ----- 1886 Oct LA, 3; TX, N2 3 950 105 ----- 1887 Jul FL, NW1; I-AL, 1 1 978 75 ----- 1887 Aug * NC, 1 1 946 65 ----- 1887 Sep TX, S1 1 973 75 ----- 1887 Oct LA, 1 1 978 75 ----- 1888 Jun TX, C1 1 982 70 ----- 1888 Aug FL, SE3, SW1; LA2; I-MS, 1 3 945 110 ----- 1888 Oct FL, NW2, NE1 2 970 95 ----- 1889 Sep LA, 1 1 982 70 ----- 1890 None 1891 Jul TX, C1, N1 1 974 80 ----- 1891 Aug FL, SE1 1 985 70 ----- 1892 None 1893 Aug NY, 1; CT, 1 1 986 75 "Midnight Storm" 1893 Aug GA, 3; SC, 3; I-NC, 1; FL, NE1 3 954 100 "Sea Islands" 1893 Sep LA, 2 2 970 85 ----- 1893 Oct LA, 4; MS, 2; AL, 2 4 948 115 "Chenier Caminanda" 1893 Oct SC, 3; NC, 2; I-VA, 1 3 955 105 ----- 1894 Sep FL, SW2, NE1; SC, 1; VA, 1 2 975 90 ----- 1894 Oct FL, NW3; I-GA, 1; NY, 1; RI, 1; CT, 1 3 950 105 ----- 1895 Aug # TX, S1 1 963 65 ----- 1896 Jul FL, NW2 2 970 85 ----- 1896 Sep RI, 1; MA, 1 1 985 70 ----- FL, NW3, NE3; GA, 2; SC, 1; I-NC, 1; 1896 Sep 3 960 110 ----- I-VA, 1 1897 Sep LA, 1; TX, N1 1 978 75 ----- 1898 Aug FL, NW1 1 982 70 ----- 1898 Aug GA, 1; SC, 1 1 980 75 ----- 1898 Oct GA, 4; FL, NE2 4 938 115 ----- 1899 Aug FL, NW2 2 979 85 ----- 1899 Aug NC, 3 3 945 105 ----- 1899 Oct NC, 2; SC, 2 2 955 95 ----- 1900 Sep TX, N4 4 936 120 "Galveston" 1901 Jul NC, 1 1 983 70 ----- 1901 Aug LA, 1; MS, 1; AL, 1 1 973 75 ----- 1902 None 1903 Sep FL, SE1, NW1 1 974 80 ----- 1903 Sep NJ, 1; DE, 1 1 990 70 ----- 1904 Sep SC, 1 1 985 70 ----- 1904 Oct FL, SE1 1 985 70 ----- 1905 None 1906 Jun FL, SW1, SE1 1 979 75 ----- 53 A. Parker: Frequency of Hurricanes’ Driven Floods not Increasing Under Global Warming

States Affected and Category by Highest Saffir- Simpson Central Max Wind Year Month Name States U.S. Category Pressure (mb) (kt) 1906 Sep SC, 1; NC, 1 1 977 80 ----- 1906 Sep MS, 2; AL, 2; FL, NW2; LA, 1 2 958 95 ----- 1906 Oct FL, SW3, SE3 3 953 105 ----- 1907 None 1908 Jul NC, 1 1 985 70 ----- 1909 Jun TX, S2 2 972 85 ----- 1909 Jul TX, N3 3 959 100 "Velasco" 1909 Aug # TX, S1 1 955 65 ----- 1909 Sep LA, 3; MS, 2 3 952 105 "Grand Isle" 1909 Oct FL, SW3, SE3 3 957 100 ----- 1910 Sep TX, S2 2 965 90 ----- 1910 Oct FL, SW2 2 955 95 ----- 1911 Aug FL, NW1; AL, 1 1 982 70 ----- 1911 Aug SC, 2; GA, 1 2 972 85 ----- 1912 Sep AL, 1; FL, NW1 1 986 65 ----- 1912 Oct TX, S2 2 970 85 ----- 1913 Jun TX, S1 1 986 65 ----- 1913 Sep NC, 1 1 976 75 ----- 1913 Oct SC, 1 1 989 65 ----- 1914 None 1915 Aug FL, NE1 1 990 65 ----- 1915 Aug TX, N4, C1; LA, 1 4 940 115 "Galveston" 1915 Sep FL, NW1 1 982 80 ----- 1915 Sep LA, 3; MS, 2 3 944 110 "New Orleans" 1916 Jul MS, 3; AL, 2; FL, NW2 3 950 105 ----- 1916 Jul SC, 2 2 960 95 ----- 1916 Aug TX, S4 4 932 115 ----- 1916 Oct AL, 2; FL, NW2 2 970 95 ----- 1917 Sep FL, NW3; LA, 2; AL, 1 3 949 100 ----- 1918 Aug LA, 3; TX, N1 3 955 105 ----- 1918 Aug NC, 1 1 988 65 ----- 1919 Sep FL, SW4, SE2; TX, S3, C3 4 927 130 ----- 1920 Sep LA, 2 2 975 85 ----- 1921 Jun TX, C1, N1 1 980 80 ----- 1921 Oct FL, SW3, NW2, NE1 3 958 100 "Tampa Bay" 1922 None 1923 Oct LA, 1; MS, 1 1 983 70 ----- 1924 Aug * NC, 1; MA, 1 1 963 65

1924 Sep FL, NW1 1 980 75 ----- 1924 Oct FL, SW1, SE1 1 975 80 ----- 1925 None 1926 Jul FL, NE2; SE1 2 967 90 ----- 1926 Aug LA, 3 3 955 100 ----- 1926 Sep FL, SE4, SW3, NW3; AL, 3; MS, 1 4 930 125 "Great Miami" 1926 Oct * FL, SW1, SE1 1 949 75 ----- 1927 None 1928 Aug FL, SE2 2 977 85 ----- FL, SE4, SW3, NE1, NW1; GA, 1; SC, 1928 Sep 4 929 125 "Lake Okeechobee" 1 1929 Jun TX, C1 1 982 80 ----- 1929 Sp-Oc FL, SE3, SW2, NW1 3 948 100 ----- 1930 None 1931 None 1932 Aug TX, N4, C1 4 935 130 "Freeport" 1932 Sep AL, 1; FL, NW1 1 979 75 ----- 1933 Jl-Au # TX, S1; FL, SE1 1 975 80 ----- 1933 Aug NC, 1; VA, 1; MD, 1 1 963 80 ----- 1933 Sep TX, S3 3 940 110 ----- 1933 Sep FL, SE3 3 948 110 ----- 1933 Sep * NC, 2; VA, 1 2 952 85 ----- 1934 Jun LA, 2 2 966 85 ----- 1934 Jul TX, S1 1 979 75 ----- Journal of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Vol. 1, No. 2, 2016, pp. 44-59 54

States Affected and Category by Highest Saffir- Simpson Central Max Wind Year Month Name States U.S. Category Pressure (mb) (kt) 1934 Sep * NC, 1; NJ, 1; NY, 1 1 975 65 ----- 1935 Sep FL, SE5, SW5, NW2; I-GA, 1 5 892 160 "Labor Day" 1935 Nov FL, SE2, NE1 2 965 85 ----- 1936 Jun TX, C1 1 987 70 ----- 1936 Jul FL; NW2; I-AL, 1 2 964 90 ----- 1936 Sep NC, 1; VA, 1 1 964 75 ----- 1937 None 1938 Aug LA, 1 1 995 65 ----- 1938 Sep NY, 3; CT, 3; RI, 3; MA, 2 3 941 105 "Great New England" 1939 Aug FL, SE1, NW1 1 985 65 ----- 1940 Aug TX, N2; LA, 2 2 972 85 ----- 1940 Aug SC, 2; GA, 1 2 972 85 ----- 1941 Sep TX, N3, C2 3 942 110 ----- 1941 Oct FL, SE2, SW1, NW1, IGA1 2 980 85 ----- 1942 Aug TX, N1 1 992 65 ----- 1942 Aug TX, C3, N2 3 950 100 ----- 1943 Jul TX, N2 2 967 90 ----- 1944 Aug NC, 1 1 985 70 ----- NC, 2; VA, 2; NY, 2; CT, 1; RI, 2; MA, 1944 Sep 2 954 90 "Great Atlantic" 1; NJ, 1 1944 Oct FL, SW3, NE2, NW1 3 949 105 ----- 1945 Jun FL, NW1 1 985 70 ----- 1945 Aug TX, C2, S1, N1 3 963 100 ----- 1945 Sep FL, SE4, SW3, NE1 4 949 115 ----- 1946 Oct FL, SW2, NW1 1 980 75 ----- 1947 Aug TX, C1 1 984 70 ----- 1947 Sep FL, SE4, SW2, LA2, MS2 4 943 115 ----- 1947 Oct GA2, SC2, FL, SW1, SE1 2 965 90 ----- 1948 Sep LA1 1 983 70 ----- 1948 Sep FL, SW4, SE2 4 940 115 ----- 1948 Oct FL, SW2, SE2 2 963 90 ----- 1949 Aug *NC, 1 1 977 70 ----- 1949 Aug FL, SE4, SW1, NW1, NE1, GA1 4 954 115 ----- 1949 Oct TX, N2, C1 2 965 95 ----- 1950 Aug AL1, FL, NW1 1 979 75 Baker 1950 Sep FL, NW3, SW1 3 960 105 Easy 1950 Oct FL, SE4, NE1 4 955 115 King 1951 None 1952 Aug SC, 2 2 980 85 Able 1953 Aug NC, 1 1 975 80 Barbara 1953 Sep FL, NW1 1 975 80 Florence 1953 Oct FL, SW1 1 980 75 Hazel 1954 Aug NY, 3; CT, 3; RI, 3; MA, 2; NC, 1 3 955 100 Carol 1954 Sep MA, 2; NC, 1; NY, 1; RI, 1 2 950 95 Edna 1954 Oct SC, 4; NC, 4 4 938 115 Hazel 1955 Aug NC, 2; VA, 1 2 962 85 Connie 1955 Sep NC, 2 2 955 90 Ione 1956 Sep LA, 1; FL, NW1 2 974 75 Flossy 1957 Jun LA3; TX, N2 3 946 110 Audrey 1958 Sep * NC, 3 3 938 110 Helene 1959 Jul SC, 1 1 995 65 Cindy 1959 Jul TX, N1 1 980 75 Debra 1959 Sep SC, 4 4 951 115 Gracie FL, SW4, SE4, NE1; NC, 2; VA1; NY, 1960 Sep 4 930 125 Donna 2; CT, 1; RI, 1; MA, 1 1960 Sep LA, 1; MS, 1 1 980 980 Ethel 1961 Sep TX, C4 4 931 ----- Carla 1962 None 1963 Sep TX, N1 1 996 ----- Cindy 1964 Aug FL, SE2 2 968 ----- Cleo 1964 Sep FL, NE2 2 966 ----- Dora 1964 Oct LA, 3 3 950 ----- Hilda 55 A. Parker: Frequency of Hurricanes’ Driven Floods not Increasing Under Global Warming

States Affected and Category by Highest Saffir- Simpson Central Max Wind Year Month Name States U.S. Category Pressure (mb) (kt) 1964 Oct FL, SW2, SE2 2 974 ----- Isbell 1965 Sep FL, SE3; LA, 3 3 948 ----- Betsy 1966 Jun FL, NW2 2 982 ----- Alma 1966 Oct FL, SW1 1 983 ----- Inez 1967 Sep TX, S3 3 950 ----- Beulah 1968 Oct FL, NW2, NE1 2 977 ----- Gladys 1969 Aug LA, 5; MS, 5 5 909 ----- Camille 1969 Sep ME, 1 1 980 ----- Gerda 1970 Aug TX, S3 3 945 ----- Celia 1971 Sep LA, 2 2 978 ----- Edith 1971 Sep TX, C1 1 979 ----- Fern 1971 Sep NC, 1 1 995 ----- Ginger 1972 Jun FL, NW1; NY, 1; CT, 1 1 980 ----- Agnes 1973 None 1974 Sep LA, 3 3 952 ----- Carmen 1975 Sep FL, NW3; I-AL1 3 955 ----- Eloise 1976 Aug NY, 1 1 980 ----- Belle 1977 Sep LA, 1 1 995 ----- Babe 1978 None 1979 Jul LA, 1 1 986 ----- Bob 1979 Sep FL, SE2, NE2; GA, 2; SC, 2 2 970 ----- David 1979 Sep AL, 3; MS, 3 3 946 ----- Frederic 1980 Aug TX, S3 3 945 100 Allen 1981 None 1982 None 1983 Aug TX, N3 3 962 100 Alicia 1984 Sep * NC, 2 2 949 95 Diana 1985 Jul SC, 1 1 1003 65 Bob 1985 Aug LA, 1 1 987 80 Danny 1985 Sep AL, 3; MS, 3; FL, NW3 3 959 100 Elena 1985 Sep NC, 3; NY, 3; CT, 2; NH, 2; ME, 1 3 942 90 Gloria 1985 Oct LA, 1 1 971 75 Juan 1985 Nov FL, NW2; I-GA 1 2 967 85 Kate 1986 Jun TX, N1 1 990 75 Bonnie 1986 Aug NC, 1 1 990 65 Charley 1987 Oct FL, SW1 1 993 65 Floyd 1988 Sep LA, 1 1 984 70 Florence 1989 Aug TX, N1 1 986 70 Chantal 1989 Sep SC, 4; I-NC 1 4 934 120 Hugo 1989 Oct TX, N1 1 983 75 Jerry 1990 None 1991 Aug RI, 2; MA, 2; NY, 2; CT, 2 2 962 90 Bob 1992 Aug FL, SE5, SW4; LA, 3 5 922 145 Andrew 1993 Aug * NC, 3 3 961 100 Emily 1994 None 1995 Aug FL, NW2, SE1 2 973 85 Erin 1995 Oct FL, NW3, I-AL 1 3 942 100 Opal 1996 Jul NC, 2 2 974 90 Bertha 1996 Sep NC, 3 3 954 100 Fran 1997 Jul LA, 1; AL, 1 1 984 70 Danny 1998 Aug NC, 2 2 964 95 Bonnie 1998 Sep FL, NW1 1 987 70 Earl 1998 Sep FL, SW2; MS, 2 2 964 90 Georges 1999 Aug TX, S3 3 951 100 Bret 1999 Sep NC, 2 2 956 90 Floyd 1999 Oct * FL, SW1; NC, 2 2 964 95 Irene 2000 None 2001 None 2002 Oct LA, 1 1 963 80 Lili 2003 Jul TX, C1 1 979 80 Claudette 2003 Sep NC, 2; VA, 1 2 957 90 Isabel Journal of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Vol. 1, No. 2, 2016, pp. 44-59 56

States Affected and Category by Highest Saffir- Simpson Central Max Wind Year Month Name States U.S. Category Pressure (mb) (kt) 2004 Aug * NC, 1 1 972 70 Alex 2004 Aug FL, SW4, SE1, NE1; SC, 1; NC, 1 4 941 130 Charley 2004 Aug SC, 1 1 985 65 Gaston 2004 Sep FL, SE2, SW1 2 960 90 Frances 2004 Sep AL, 3; FL, NW3 3 946 105 Ivan 2004 Sep FL, SE3, SW1, NW1 3 950 105 Jeanne 2005 Jul LA, 1 1 991 65 Cindy 2005 Jul FL, NW3; I-AL 1 3 946 105 Dennis 2005 Aug FL, SE1, SW1; LA, 3; MS, 3; AL, 1 3 920 110 Katrina 2005 Sep * NC, 1 1 982 65 Ophelia 2005 Sep FL, SW1; LA, 3; TX, N2 3 937 100 Rita 2005 Oct FL, SW3; FL, SE2 3 950 105 Wilma 2006 None 2007 Sep TX, N1; LA, 1 1 985 80 Humberto 2008 Jul TX, S1 1 967 75 Dolly 2008 Sep LA, 2 2 954 90 Gustav 2008 Sep TX, N2; LA, 1 2 950 95 Ike 2009 None 2010 None 2011 Aug NC, 1 1 952 75 Irene 2012 Aug LA, 1 1 966 70 Isaac 2012 Oct * NY, 1 1 942 65 Sandy 2013 None 2014 Jul NC, 2 2 973 85 Arthur 2015 None

Appendix 2 – Linear Sea Level the 126 stations is +1.76 mm/year. By only considering realistic the trends obtained by considering more than 60 Trends in the Tide Gauge years of data accounting for the multi-decadal oscillations, Stations of the Continental US the average sea level rise is +1.77 mm/year in 41 stations. Comparison with prior similar surveys returns similar trends, This is the table (from Ref. [19]) with the sea level trends for demonstrating the lack of any acceleration. tidal stations across the Continental US (from [19]). The number of years considered to derive a trend is the product of years range by completeness %. The average sea level rise in

Table A2.1. Sea level trends for tidal stations across the Continental US.

Station First Last Year % Years of MSL Trends +/- 95% CI Station Name ID Year Year Range Completeness data (mm/yr) (mm/yr) 8518750 The Battery, NY 1856 2015 159 90 143.10 2.84 0.09 9414290 San Francisco, CA 1897 2015 118 99 116.82 1.94 0.19 9447130 Seattle, WA 1899 2015 116 99 114.84 2.01 0.15 8574680 Baltimore, MD 1902 2015 113 100 113.00 3.14 0.13 9410170 San Diego, CA 1906 2015 109 98 106.82 2.13 0.19 8771450 Galveston Pier 21, TX 1908 2015 107 98 104.86 6.37 0.24 8418150 Portland, ME 1912 2015 103 99 101.97 1.87 0.15 8724580 Key West, FL 1913 2015 102 93 94.86 2.37 0.15 8534720 Atlantic City, NJ 1911 2015 104 91 94.64 4.07 0.16 8443970 Boston, MA 1921 2015 94 99 93.06 2.79 0.16 8665530 Charleston, SC 1921 2015 94 99 93.06 3.21 0.22 8720030 Fernandina Beach, FL 1897 2015 118 78 92.04 2.08 0.18 9410660 Los Angeles, CA 1923 2015 92 99 91.08 0.95 0.24 8729840 Pensacola, FL 1923 2015 92 98 90.16 2.25 0.23 9450460 Ketchikan, AK 1919 2015 96 92 88.32 -0.31 0.23 8638610 Sewells Point, VA 1927 2015 88 99 87.12 4.59 0.23 9410230 La Jolla, CA 1924 2015 91 95 86.45 2.19 0.27 9439040 Astoria, OR 1925 2015 90 96 86.40 -0.23 0.34 8727520 Cedar Key, FL 1914 2015 101 84 84.84 1.97 0.18 8575512 Annapolis, MD 1928 2015 87 97 84.39 3.53 0.21 8531680 Sandy Hook, NJ 1932 2015 83 99 82.17 4.05 0.22 57 A. Parker: Frequency of Hurricanes’ Driven Floods not Increasing Under Global Warming

Station First Last Year % Years of MSL Trends +/- 95% CI Station Name ID Year Year Range Completeness data (mm/yr) (mm/yr) 8594900 Washington, DC 1924 2015 91 90 81.90 3.22 0.29 8410140 Eastport, ME 1929 2015 86 95 81.70 2.11 0.18 8447930 Woods Hole, MA 1932 2015 83 95 78.85 2.81 0.18 9443090 Neah Bay, WA 1934 2015 81 97 78.57 -1.73 0.31 8658120 Wilmington, NC 1935 2015 80 97 77.60 2.19 0.35 8670870 Fort Pulaski, GA 1935 2015 80 97 77.60 3.17 0.28 9419750 Crescent City, CA 1933 2015 82 93 76.26 -0.81 0.31 9414750 Alameda, CA 1939 2015 76 99 75.24 0.72 0.42 8461490 New London, CT 1938 2015 77 97 74.69 2.55 0.23 8452660 Newport, RI 1930 2015 85 87 73.95 2.72 0.17 9451600 Sitka, AK 1924 2015 91 81 73.71 -2.28 0.28 9452210 Juneau, AK 1936 2015 79 92 72.68 -13.14 0.35 9410840 Santa Monica, CA 1933 2015 82 86 70.52 1.52 0.35 8726520 St. Petersburg, FL 1947 2015 68 100 68.00 2.66 0.25 8454000 Providence, RI 1938 2015 77 87 66.99 2.22 0.25 9449880 Friday Harbor, WA 1934 2015 81 82 66.42 1.12 0.28 9412110 Port San Luis, CA 1945 2015 70 94 65.80 0.84 0.40 8632200 Kiptopeke, VA 1951 2015 64 99 63.36 3.58 0.34 8510560 Montauk, NY 1947 2015 68 93 63.24 3.21 0.28 8413320 Bar Harbor, ME 1947 2015 68 91 61.88 2.18 0.22 8557380 Lewes, DE 1919 2015 96 62 59.52 3.40 0.24 9452400 Skagway, AK 1944 2015 71 80 56.80 -17.59 0.52 8419870 Seavey Island, ME 1926 2001 75 74 55.50 1.76 0.30 8774770 Rockport, TX 1937 2015 78 68 53.04 5.33 0.47 8638660 Portsmouth, VA 1935 1987 52 100 52.00 3.76 0.45 8779770 Port Isabel, TX 1944 2015 71 73 51.83 3.83 0.35 9461380 Adak Island, AK 1957 2015 58 89 51.62 -2.83 0.42 8577330 Solomons Island, MD 1937 2015 78 66 51.48 3.74 0.25 8637624 Gloucester Point, VA 1950 2003 53 97 51.41 3.81 0.47 8467150 Bridgeport, CT 1964 2015 51 97 49.47 2.81 0.45 8771510 Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX 1957 2011 54 91 49.14 6.62 0.69 8725110 Naples, FL 1965 2015 50 98 49.00 2.65 0.47 9455500 Seldovia, AK 1964 2015 51 96 48.96 -10.08 0.80 8449130 Nantucket Island, MA 1965 2015 50 96 48.00 3.52 0.38 9435380 South Beach, OR 1967 2015 48 100 48.00 1.55 0.76 8725520 Fort Myers, FL 1965 2015 50 95 47.50 2.85 0.49 8723170 Miami Beach, FL 1931 1981 50 93 46.50 2.39 0.43 8728690 Apalachicola, FL 1967 2015 48 95 45.60 1.96 0.66 8536110 Cape May, NJ 1965 2015 50 91 45.50 4.54 0.55 9432780 Charleston, OR 1970 2015 45 98 44.10 0.98 0.83 8656483 Beaufort, NC 1953 2015 62 71 44.02 2.89 0.36 9455090 Seward, AK 1964 2015 51 86 43.86 -2.62 0.69 8571892 Cambridge, MD 1943 2015 72 60 43.20 3.69 0.33 9444900 Port Townsend, WA 1972 2015 43 97 41.71 1.82 0.80 9413450 Monterey, CA 1973 2015 42 99 41.58 1.40 0.95 9459450 Sand Point, AK 1972 2015 43 96 41.28 0.92 0.92 8735180 Dauphin Island, AL 1966 2015 49 84 41.16 3.30 0.61 8779750 Padre Island, TX 1958 2006 48 85 40.80 3.48 0.75 8729108 Panama City, FL 1973 2015 42 97 40.74 1.92 0.64 9449424 Cherry Point, WA 1973 2015 42 97 40.74 0.25 0.82 8635750 Lewisetta, VA 1974 2015 41 99 40.59 5.42 0.71 8778490 Port Mansfield, TX 1963 2006 43 94 40.42 1.93 0.97 8723970 Vaca Key, FL 1971 2015 44 91 40.04 3.53 0.48 8638863 Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 1975 2015 40 99 39.60 5.93 0.77 9444090 Port Angeles, WA 1975 2015 40 99 39.60 0.14 0.96 9415020 Point Reyes, CA 1975 2015 40 98 39.20 1.97 1.02 9440910 Toke Point, WA 1973 2015 42 92 38.64 0.40 0.98 9415144 Port Chicago, CA 1976 2015 39 98 38.22 1.55 1.67 9410580 Newport Beach, CA 1955 1993 38 100 38.00 2.22 1.04 8726724 Clearwater Beach, FL 1973 2015 42 89 37.38 3.37 0.62 9418767 North Spit, CA 1977 2015 38 98 37.24 4.60 1.06 Journal of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Vol. 1, No. 2, 2016, pp. 44-59 58

Station First Last Year % Years of MSL Trends +/- 95% CI Station Name ID Year Year Range Completeness data (mm/yr) (mm/yr) 8661070 Springmaid Pier, SC 1957 2015 58 64 37.12 3.90 0.58 9462620 Unalaska, AK 1957 2015 58 64 37.12 -5.08 0.53 9455920 Anchorage, AK 1972 2015 43 86 36.98 -0.54 1.07 8761724 Grand Isle, LA 1947 2015 68 54 36.72 9.05 0.46 8651370 Duck, NC 1978 2015 37 98 36.26 4.48 0.78 8772440 Freeport, TX 1954 2008 36 100 36.00 4.43 1.05 9751639 Charlotte Amalie, VI 1975 2015 40 90 36.00 1.97 0.71 8551910 Reedy Point, DE 1956 2015 59 60 35.40 3.54 0.51 8514560 Port Jefferson, NY 1957 1992 35 98 34.30 2.44 0.76 8635150 Colonial Beach, VA 1972 2010 38 88 33.44 4.89 0.97 9751401 Lime Tree Bay, VI 1977 2015 38 88 33.44 2.49 0.81 8519483 Bergen Point, NY 1981 2015 34 94 31.96 4.35 0.90 9431647 Port Orford, OR 1977 2015 38 82 31.16 -0.08 1.32 8770570 Sabine Pass, TX 1958 2015 57 54 30.78 5.54 0.79 8775870 Corpus Christi, TX 1983 2015 32 96 30.72 3.80 1.17 9416841 Arena Cove, CA 1978 2015 37 79 29.23 0.42 1.16 8411250 Cutler, ME 1979 2010 31 94 29.14 2.34 0.61 8631044 Wachapreague, VA 1978 2015 37 73 27.01 5.37 0.86 9411270 Rincon Island, CA 1962 1990 28 92 25.76 3.22 1.66 9453220 Yakutat, AK 1988 2015 27 95 25.65 -14.10 1.50 9454240 Valdez, AK 1988 2015 27 95 25.65 -8.60 1.50 9454050 Cordova, AK 1988 2015 27 94 25.38 -0.04 1.36 8545240 Philadelphia, PA 1900 2015 115 22 25.30 2.93 0.19 8747437 Bay Waveland, MS 1978 2015 37 67 24.79 4.10 0.92 9411340 Santa Barbara, CA 1973 2015 42 58 24.36 1.11 1.28 8573927 Chesapeake City, MD 1972 2015 43 53 22.79 3.81 0.77 8652587 Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 1977 2015 38 59 22.42 3.84 1.23 9497645 Prudhoe Bay, AK 1990 2014 24 92 22.08 1.20 1.99 9455760 Nikiski, AK 1973 2015 42 52 21.84 -10.42 1.05 9457292 Kodiak Island, AK 1975 2015 40 53 21.20 -10.41 0.89 8573364 Tolchester Beach, MD 1986 2014 28 75 21.00 4.25 1.51 9437540 Garibaldi, OR 1970 2015 45 45 20.25 2.46 0.85 8761927 New Canal, LA 1982 2015 33 59 19.47 4.71 1.35 8722670 Lake Worth Pier, FL 1970 2015 45 41 18.45 3.56 0.66 9414523 Redwood City, CA 1974 2015 41 45 18.45 1.96 1.83 8764311 Eugene Island, LA 1939 1974 35 51 17.85 9.65 1.24 8516945 Kings Point, NY 1931 2015 84 20 16.80 2.50 0.21 8720218 Mayport, FL 1928 2015 87 17 14.79 2.55 0.27 8570283 Ocean City Inlet, MD 1975 2015 40 35 14.00 5.60 0.97 9463502 Port Moller, AK 1984 2015 31 41 12.71 2.64 1.79 8659084 Southport, NC 1933 2008 75 16 12.00 2.00 0.41 8737048 Mobile State Docks, AL 1980 2015 35 29 10.15 3.19 1.55 9439011 Hammond, OR 1983 2014 31 28 8.68 -1.22 1.81 8721120 Daytona Beach Shores, FL 1925 1983 58 11 6.38 2.32 0.63

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