0

African Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences

Assessment of Flood Disaster Risk Prevalence in Town, State,

Gambo Jamilu National Meteorological Agency (NIMET), National Weather Forecasting & Climate Research Center, Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, FCT, Abuja & Tasi`u Yalwa Rilwanu Department of Geography, Bayero University, Kano.

ABSTRACT Article History This study assesses flood disaster risk reduction and prevalence in Malumfashi town . Frequent occurrences of flood disaster have become the general problem in Received: 19 February 2020 the study area for long. The aim of the study was to assess flood disaster risk reduction in Received in revised form: 30 April 2020 the area for effective management. A sample size of 384 was determined using the Krejcie Accepted: 15 May 2020 Published Online: 2 September 2020 and Morgan table. Non proportionate quota sampling was used in which ward ‘A’ and ‘B’ had 192 respondents each. Respondents were selected using systematic sampling. The Keywords: data was collected using field survey and GPS. The Data was analysed using simple descriptive statistics and mapping in SPSS and GIS environment respectively. Result Urban-Flood, Prevalence, Prone-areas, Malumfashi revealed that about (75.1%) of the respondents in ward ‘A’ indicated high prevalence of Corresponding Author Contact: flood disaster than those in ward ‘B’ (68.3%) respondents. Result also indicated that Tasi`u Yalwa Rilwanu majority of the people in both wards were using construction of proper drain and ditches as flood disaster risk control measures. About (43.4%) in Ward A and (39%) in ward B Email:[email protected] participate in flood disaster risk control. The study identified three flood prone classes as DOI: 10.11113/ajees.v3.n1.104 high 225km2 (33.3%), moderate 337km2 (50%) and low risk 112km2 (16.7%). It was therefore concluded that flood is more prevalence in areas bordering the river valleys and it decreases away. Majority of the people of Malumfashi town faced frequent occurrences of flood disaster risk due to inadequate financial resources for flood disaster risk control. It was recommended that, among other issues, flood forecasting, early flood warning system and the construction of proper drainages and culverts should be improved for effective flood control and management in the area.

1.1 INTRODUCTION occurring natural hazards in the world. The Climate variability is one of the greatest impacts of flood disaster on the society and its socioeconomic and biophysical challenges effect on sustainable development are confronting the world. Human activities, overwhelming in recent years. Thus, this particularly deforestation and the burning of phenomenon has a negative impact on the fossil fuels, are driving changes by increasing environment and on people’s lives and the atmospheric concentrations of carbon livelihoods. Marginalised groups and dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs). communities in the poorest regions of the As a result, the world is experiencing greater world are particularly affected, even as they weather extremes, changes in rainfall patterns, are least responsible for these changes (United heat and cold waves and increasing droughts Nations Development Programmed (UNDP), and flood (Intergovernmental panel on climate 2009). Flood is a very serious disaster of which change (IPCC), 2007). Flood is considered to less attention is paid toward its prevention by be one the most devastating and frequently stakeholders concern. Stake holders' efforts

Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, (2020), 517-523 |[email protected]|

522 Jamilu & Rilwanu – African Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, 2020, 517-523 towards tackling flood hazard have not yielded floods with more than 30 people deaths and satisfactory results in many countries that is the damages of property (Editor, 2012; why they have been criticized as ad-hoc, poorly Komolafe, Adegboyega, and Akinluyi, 2015). coordinated, non-generalizable and not well The worst but recent of all the flood events established (Obeta 2014). that caused a huge devastation across the Nigeria was the July 2012 event. Asia is the most disaster-prone regions of the world. Statistics show that 38% of the world’s Flooding as witnessed in some parts of Katsina disasters between 1975 and 2000 occurred in state under the study of difference researchers Asia. 57% of the total casualty in the past 25 severely impacted the human security of the years belongs to Asia (ADRC Data Book, areas hit by the flood disaster. Most of the 2002). During the same period, flood events LGAs of Katsina state were affected with a contributed to 31% of the total number of number of victims according to their senatorial events followed by cyclone or typhoons, districts. On an individual or household level, contributing 28%. Thus, hydro-meteorological the flood brought about death, injuries and disasters (consists of floods and cyclones) are trauma. Frequent occurrences of flood disaster the most prominent hazards in the Asian have always become the general problem in the region. According to the American Council on study area for long. Most of the studies Education Geography (ACE Geography (2014) conducted in this study area are more related in Australia floods are the most expensive type to drought and even those on flood are outside of natural disaster with direct costs estimated the study area. For example Anunobi (2014) over the period 1967-2005 averaging $377 conducted a study on flood risk management in million per year. In the United States of a high risk zone, the confluence of Rivers America, flood losses averaged $2.4 billion per Niger and Benue at Lokoja, Nigeria. Findings year for the last decade and floods are the one show a near total lack of governmental natural disaster in the area. intervention in flood risk management. Rather the riverine communities put up rudimentary In Nigeria, flood accounts for the highest preparedness and prevention measures to occurring natural hazards, with great confront the flood risk and reduce their consequences on the life and property vulnerability to its impact. Abaje et al, (2012) (Aderogba, 2012).The causes of flood are both and (2013) also conducted a research on the natural and anthropogenic. The natural causes assessment of flood disaster and Humans are basically heavy rainstorm and ocean storms security in Katsina state, the result showed an along the coast while the human causes are as a increase rainfall amount in months of June, result of burst water main pipes, lack of July and August is one of the factors effective drainage systems, dam failure and responsible for the frequent occurrences of spills. It occurs in the form of coastal flood, flood in those months. river flood, flash floods and urban flood. In the last decades, for instance, many states and In Katsina State, limited studies have been cities have witnessed unusual and devastating conducted on community participation in flood flood disasters, which undermined the disaster risk reduction at zone. Thus, government’s capability to prevent such Malumfashi town is situated on flood plain in disasters. In Ibadan it caused estimated which long river crosses the town at the center damages and deaths of over 30 billion naira which is one of the major causes of an (Adegbola and Jolayemi, 2012 Agbola et al., accelerated flood disaster in the area. Other 2012). recorded at least 8 major problems are Lack of the adequate resources

Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, (2020), 517-523 |[email protected]|

523 Jamilu & Rilwanu – African Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, 2020, 517-523 required by volunteer participants to take average annual rainfall is about 1000 mm with necessary action, lack of good participation a relative humidity ranging from 30-80%. The among the community members despite that, annual mean temperature is about 27oc. The flood disaster is a collective action problem, highest air temperature normally occurs in Lack of incentives to the participants by April/May and the lowest in December Government, NGOs and also traditional through February Nigerian Meteorological rulers, so that they can have enough Agency (NIMET) 2012). encouragement toward their efforts and lack of effective knowledge on flood disaster. Also, The hydrology and drainage pattern of the research conducted by previous researcher is study area is fully controlled by climate and more focused on the causes and consequences reliefs of the area characterised by Malumfashi of the flood and how government can mitigate River and its tributaries which bisected the the risk of flood in the area but none of them town. Artificial drainages were constructed but conducted a study on flood disaster risk fully dominated by dumping of waste. (Nigeria prevalence in the study area that is why the aim Meteorological Agency (NIMET), 2010). The of the study was to assess flood disaster risk soil in the area is matured with high prevalence in the area for effective control and mineralogical content, especially the nutrient management. elements needed for normal growth and the development of crops. The soil is generally 2.1 METHODS darker to brownish in color almost all the area 2.1.1 The Study Area and also is generally fertile (Nigerian Malumfashi local government is located Meteorological Agency NIMENT, 2012). The between latitude 11o 47′ 22″N and 11o78′94″N area is characterized by Sudan Savanna and longitude 7o37′14″E and 7ᵒ62′61″E vegetation type which combines the (Figure 1). It shares border with local characteristics and species of both Guinea and government to the North, Kafur and Sahel Savanna (Mustapha, 2005). local government to the South and Kano States to the East. It has a land size of about 674km2 2.1.2 Method of Data collection with a population of 182,920 as at the 2006 The sample size of this study (s = 384) was national census (Federal Republic of Nigeria, determined based on the Krejcie and Morgan 2012). The geology of the area is said to be (1970) table for computing sample size of underlined by crystalline rock of basement Malumfashi town that constitute two Wards, ie complex composes of sandstone, clay soil of A and B. Random sample techniques was used about five meters in depth and very fine in to select the sample of the respondents in the texture and the soil is fertile. It has almost two wards and non-proportionate quota undulating plains, which generally rise gentle sampling was used in which ward A and B had from 360m in the north east around to 192 respondents each, being the two major 600m around Funtua in the south west in areas affected by the flood with a population of Katsina state above sea level. 78,920. These wards are;- Malumfashi Ward A with a population of 39,920 and Malumfashi In terms of climate the area experiences a Ward B with a population of 39000 (National tropical climate the having rainy and dry Population Commission, 2012). Data was seasons. Rainy season begins in April/May and collected using field measurement, end mostly in October while the dry season questionnaire survey, and the GPS of the study occurred for the rest of the year (Odekunle, area. These variables include the prevalence of 2006; et al, 2012b; Abaje et al, 2014). The flood disaster risk in the area were obtained

Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, (2020), 517-523 |[email protected]|

524 Jamilu & Rilwanu – African Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, 2020, 517-523 through questionnaire survey, The Flood prone and Geographical information system software areas in Malumfashi town, were obtained (ArcGIS) enhance by the Digital Elevation through mapping with an enhance Model (DEM), which was also used to Geographical positioning systems (GPS) device determined flood plain or the nature of terrain.

Figure 1: Malumfashi showing the study area Source GIS Lab, Geography Department, Bayero University, Kano.

2.1.3 Data Analysis respondents (41.8%) view that Flood The data was analysed using descriptive occurrence is often while (21.2%) said it is statistics in SPSS software and mapping of areas very often. When combined together, a total based on flood severity was undertaken using of (63%) of the view that Flood occurrence is ArcGIS version 3.0 software in GIS often. Ward B on Flood occurrence (49.7%) environment. said it is often and according to (19.1%) it is very often. Thus a total of (68.8%) of the view 3.1 RESULT AND DISCUSSION that Flood occurrence is often. This shows that 3.1.1 Prevalence of Flood Disaster risk in ward B face more challenges related to flood Area disaster than ward A because majority of the Floods never occur in an area without leaving a people at ward B are average in terms of their scar on its victims. People in the stdy area livelihoods. They cannot build houses with suffer in different forms. Malumfashi Ward A. proper drainages pattern and the settlements According to the results, majority of the are mostly nucleated and in some extent

Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, (2020), 517-523 |[email protected]|

522 Jamilu & Rilwanu – African Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, 2020, 517-523 dispersed. This finding is an indication that Increased frequency and intensity of rainfall several human attitudes have contributed drives pluvial floods and are a major cause of immensely to flood occurrence in the study concern for urban areas. Urban areas are area (Table 1). In line with Intergovernmental significant in the economic and political Panel on climate change (IPCC, 2007) development of regions and states.

Table 1: Often occurrence of flood disaster Study site Response Frequency Percentage (%) Malumfashi ward A Often 79 41.8 not often 70 37 very often 40 21.2 Total 189 100 Malumfashi ward B Often 94 49.7 not often 59 31.2 very often 36 19.1 Total 189 100 Sources: Field survey, 2019. This is confirmed by the Nigerian exist, these have been blocked by refuse, as the Meteorological Agency (NIMET, 2012) communities are in the habit of dumping their Urbanization is an important anthropogenic wastes in the drainage channels. It was also influence on climate change, especially in observed that most of the houses affected were forcing increased rainfall intensity and constructed on waterways. The result frequency. Impervious surfaces which are coincided with that of Abaje and Giwa (2010) extensive in urban areas influence local and report that deforestation, which is the regional hydrology by increasing surface water deliberate destruction of the trees as a result of runoff and causing peak discharge and reduced the activities of Man and his domesticated time of peak (Mujumdar, 2001).These are animals, can intensify flooding by affecting the pertinent issues to environmental soil structure and reducing infiltration rates management, urban planning and flood risk and reducing water storage. Based on the reduction. However, urbanisation along with table, it can be shown that, flood disaster used rapid population growth in most places for to occur. Comparing the most devastating example, developing countries have been floods in the world between 1985 and 2014, it unaccompanied by adequate urban planning can be clear where Nigeria stands in global and (Adeloye and Rustum, 2011).The regional perspectives in terms of the economic concentration of people and activities in towns and human impacts of flooding. and cities has led to crass demand for land. Land has, therefore, become scarce and has led 3.1.2 Yearly Frequency of Flood to people building on flood plains. Several Occurrence in the Area. development actions have brought about Results show that Ward A respondents with paving a considerable portion of urban land. (32.8%) says the occurrence of the flood is in Precipitations which cannot infiltrate these two years interval followed by (30.7%) that impervious sections of the environment find responded that it is a yearly event. Other their way into the rivers and other waterways respondents said flood occurred in three years quite easily. (American council of Education interval with (25.4%) and small proportion Geography (ACE Geography 2014) due to 11.1% of respondents classified as four years inadequate drainage channels in most of the interval of flood occurrence. While ward B had affected areas visited. In areas where drainages 34.4% respond two years interval of flood

Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, (2020), 517-523 |[email protected]|

522 Jamilu & Rilwanu – African Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, 2020, 517-523 occurrence. Also (31.7%), (17%) and 16.4% common in ward B because of its proximity to were respond as yearly, three years interval rivers. This result coincided with that of and four years interval respectively (Table 2). Federal Ministry of Environment (FME, 2012). This is in line with findings of Abaje, Ati and Flooding can be attributed to coastal influence Iguisi, (2012) which shows an increase in among other key factors. The influence of rainfall amount in months of June, July and rivers such as Niger, Benue, Ogun and August is one of the factors responsible for the Hadejia, may account for the rest of the states frequent occurrences of flood disaster every with more frequent floods. year. It can also be seen that flooding is

Table 2 Frequency of the Flood Occurrence Study site Response Frequency Percentage (%) Malumfashi ward A Yearly 58 30.7 Two years interval 62 32.8 Three years interval 48 25.4 Four years and above 21 11.1

Total 189 100 Malumfashi ward B Yearly 60 31.7 Two years interval 65 34.4 Three years interval 33 17 Four years and above 31 16.4

Total 189 100 Sources: Field survey, 2019. These findings are consistent with the result of times respectively, about 26.5%, of the a recent investigation of flood prone zones in respondents said that they never experience Nigeria carried out by the Federal Ministry of flooding in their area during the period, while Environment (FME, 2013). Also they were in ward B respondent (32.8%) of the confirmed by Adegbola (2012), who said that respondents agreed to have experienced Disasters are attributed to different reasons and flooding 1-3 times during the period, (27%) causes, Public perception varies. Some school and (11.1%) of the respondents said flooding of thought believe that it is a wholly natural occurred in their area as 4-6 times and 7-10 event with little or nothing that can be done to times respectively and about 29.1%, of the stop it and reaction can be only made after the respondents said that they never experience hazard has occurred, while other believe that, flooding in their area during the period (Table though it cannot be stopped, adequate 3).This is in agreement with the observations preparation can be made to mitigate and of (Odekunle, Andrew and Aremu, 2008) that cushion the effects of the disaster. northern Nigeria has been experiencing decreasing number of dry conditions and 3.1.3 Time of the Year which Flood consequently increasing wetness from the Occurs 1990s to the recent years. The result indicated that majority of the respondents in Ward A (50.3%) agreed to The increasing wetness appears to be have experienced flooding 1-3 times during the accounted for by significant northward shifts in annual rainy season period while (20.6%) and the surface location of the ITD over the (2.6%) accounts for those who suffered country. It is clear that the annual rainfall has flooding in their area as 4-6 times and 7-10 increased in the last 30 years. It is

Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, (2020), 517-523 |[email protected]|

522 Jamilu & Rilwanu – African Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, 2020, 517-523 predominantly as a result of the increase in Climate change (IPCC, 2007) urban areas are June, July and August rainfall. Also result significant in the economic and political revealed that inward B the occurrence of yearly development of regions and states. Also, it flood varies from Ward A with 1-3time per stated that urbanization is an important year extent up to 4-6times shows that Ward B anthropogenic influence on climate change, is vulnerable to the risk of flood disaster. This especially in forcing increased rainfall intensity confirmed by Intergovernmental Panel on and frequency.

Table 3: Yearly Flood Occurrence in the Study Area Study site Response Frequency Percentage (%) Malumfashi ward A None 50 26.5 1-3 times 95 50.3 4-6 times 39 20.6 7-10 times 5 2.6 Total 189 100 Malumfashi ward B None 55 20.1 1-3 times 62 32.8 4-6 times 51 36 7-10 times 21 11.1 Total 189 100 Sources: Field survey, 2019. Thus, there is no doubt that since the study site away from the river. These show that, there is is situated along a river and located at the tendency of people closed to the river facing southern part of Katsina state it is expected to more risks of flood disaster than area away have heavy rainfall, resulting in rainstorms and from river. increased runoff water in Malumfashi town through river channel influence. However, This result corroborates that of De-Moel, these consequences attributed leading to yearly Alphen and Aerts (2009), who were of the flood occurrences in the area. view that flood characteristics (most notably flood water depth, extent and duration as well 3.1.4 Identification of Flood Prone Areas as flow velocity) obtained through accurate Result from mappings revealed that assessment of flooding are required to produce Malumfashi ward B had more frequent flood risk/hazard maps. Thus for flood occurrence of flood disaster, this is due to risk/hazard mapping accurate assessment of various factors such as low economic income, flooding should not be ignored. Meanwhile, culture of the standard of living, and the nature the making of these maps is of scientific settlement structure. From the result it can be significance as it requires critical understanding seen that the area is categorized into three of the drivers of flood hazard/risk. In the flood flood prone areas, as High risk 225km2 risk/hazard assessment literature, flood (33.3%) Example of such areas include modeling plays considerable roles. Under the Gangarawa, Sodangi, Moderate risk 337km2 EU Commission directive on flood, the United (50%) which include areas like Fayamasa,Layin States flood control policy, national flood yangoro and Tsohowar kasuwa and Low risk insurance program (NFIP) and other regionally 112 km2 (16.7 %) which comprises of places based flood risk management policies, the like Layin BCJ, Unguwar Mata and Tsamiyar- relevance of flood information to both flood yankifi ( Figure 2 and Table 4.). As observed risk/hazard and flood risk reduction highlights from the map there is decrease vulnerability the significance, of flood mapping. For this

Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, (2020), 517-523 |[email protected]|

522 Jamilu & Rilwanu – African Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, 2020, 517-523 reason, the key roles of flood mapping can be and effective flood risk management such as summarized as follows: temporal inundation information about the • Description of flow behavior around groups onset, duration and passing of a flood event of buildings and other complex (Zerger and Wealand, 2004) leads to an geomorphological features, especially in improved understanding of the flood assessment of urban flooding (Bates et al. phenomena, provides insight into the causes of 2010). flooding. • Ability to provide critical information for strategic planning of flood defense measures

Figure 2 Map showing Flood prone area at study site; Source: Google Earth- World Imagery, 2010

Table 4: Flood Prone Classes S/N Flood prone Classes Area (Km2) Percentage (%) 1 High 225 33.3 2 Moderate 337 50 3 Low 112 16.7 Total 674 100 Source: field Survey, 2019.

Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, (2020), 517-523 |[email protected]|

522 Jamilu & Rilwanu – African Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, 2020, 517-523

4.1 CONCLUSION AND Change and Sustainable Development in RECOMMENDATIONS Nigeria (pp. 99-121). Ibadan: Crown F. The study established that Ward B is more Publishers. prevalence to flood disaster according to ACE Geography (2014) Causes of Flood. majority of the respondents. It was discovered www.acegeography.com. Retrieved that flood used to occur every two years or 23/7/14. Agukoronye, O.C (2005) the every year according to most of the residents Challenges of Town Planning and there. Also flood used to happen two to three Development Control in . A times every year. It was deduced that flood Report by the Technical Committee on plains are more prone to flood in Malumfashi Environment and Development Control, town as most of the risk areas are around river NITP. October. valleys and their tributaries and it decreases Adegbola, A. A., & Jolayemi, J. K. (2012) away. Areas of higher risk and vulnerability to Historical rainfall-runoff modelling of flood disaster are more common in Malunfashi river Ogunpa, Ibadan Nigeria. Indian ward B with areas closer to river and its Journal of Science and Technology, 5(5), tributaries. 2725-2728.. Aderogba, K. A. (2012) Global warming and Based on findings of the study, the following challenges of floods in Lagos metropolis, recommendations can be forwarded: that Nigeria.Academic Research International, People should avoid construction of their 2(1), 448-468 houses along the River channels and avoid Aging and Disability Resource Centre (ADRC) blocking existing drainage with municipal Data Book 2002. Data Book on Asian th waste, refuse and eroded soil sediment, in Natural Disasters in the 20 Century, order to reduce a risk of flood disaster. The Natural Disasters in India. Kobe, Japan. flood vulnerability map of Malumfashi town, Anunobi, A. I. (2014) Informal riverine developed in this research should be adopted settlements and flood risk management: and improve steps taken to make proactive A study of lokoja, nigeria. Journal of decision in the fight against flood in the town. Environment and Earth Science, 4(12), 35- Flood forecasting and early flood warning 43. system should be improved in Malumfashi Bates, P.D., Matthew, S.H., Fewtrell, town through community participation. T.J.(2010) A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equation for REFERENCES efficient two-dimensional flood inundation modeling. Journal of Abaje, I. B., & Giwa, P. N. (2010). Flood risk Hydrology, 387:33-45. assessment and vulnerability in De Moel, H., van Alphen, J., Aerts, J.C. Kafanchan town, Jema’a local (2009) Flood maps in Europe – government area of , methods, availability and use. Ntural Nigeria. International Journal of Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9,289- Sustainable Development, 3(1):94-100. 301. Abaje, I.B., Ati, O.F. & Iguisi, E.O. (2012). Doherty, C (2008) Developing a Good Changing climatic scenarios and Practice Guide to Community strategies for drought adaptation and Participation. Dublin: Inner City mitigation in the Sudano-Sahelian Organization Network. Ecological Zone Ecological Zone of Nigeria. In M.A. in twenty first century Nigeria. Weather, Iliya & I.M. Dankani (Eds), Climate 63(3), 66-70.

Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, (2020), 517-523 |[email protected]|

523 Jamilu & Rilwanu – African Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, 2020, 517-523

Editor, G. (2012) Taming the floods in Lagos. Activities: Educational psychological The Guardian Newspaper, Tue. July 10, measurement. Page 18, Vol. 29, No. 12,248. Mujumdar, P.P. (2001) Flood wave Federal Ministry of environment (2013) propagation: The St. Venant equations. Nigeria Post Disaster Need Assessment Resonance, 6(5)66-73 2012 Flood, A report by The Federal National Population Commission (NPC, 2012) Government of Nigeria With Technical Excerpts from the National Support from the World Bank, EU, UN, and Development Policy Official Publication Other Partners, National emergency 2012, Federal Republic of Nigeria, Management Agency and world Bank, Abuja. Nigerian office, 1-154. Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET, Federal Ministry of environment (2013) 2012) Temperature. 2012 Nigeria Nigeria Post Disaster Need Assessment Climate Review (pp 19-24). Nigerian 2012 Flood, A report by The Federal Meteorological Agency (NIMET) Abuja. Government of Nigeria With Technical Obeta, C. M. (2014) Institutional Approach to Support from the World Bank, EU, UN, and Flood Disaster Management in Nigeria: Other Partners, National emergency Need for a Preparedness Plan. British Management Agency and world Bank, Journal of Applied Science & Technology, Nigerian office, 1-154. 4(33), 4575-4590. Federal Republic of Nigeria (2012) Annual Odekunle, T. O., and Eludoyin, A. O. (2008) Abstract of Statistics, 2012, National Sea surface temperature patterns in the Bureau of Statistics Annual Report, Federal Gulf of Guinea: Their implications for Republic of Nigeria. the spatio-temporal variability of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change precipitation in West Africa. (IPCC) (2007) Climate Change International Journal of Climatology, 28, Impacts,adaptation and Vulnerability. 1507–1517. Contribution of Working Group II to the United Nations Development Programme Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2009) Guidelines for Natural Disaster Assessment. Report, Summary for Prevention, Preparedness and Mitigation Policymakers. http://www.icpc. and its plan of Action, UNDP/DHA, ch/pdf/assessment- Yokohama. report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-spm.-pdf. Zerger, A., & Wealands, S. (2004) Beyond Komolafe, A.A., Adegboyega, S.A. and modeling: linking models with GIS for Akinluyi, F.O. (2015) A Review of flood riskmanagement. Natural Hazards, Flood Risk Analysis in Nigeria, American 33(2), 191-208.Zhu, D., Zhou, N., Journal of Environmental Sciences, 11 (3): Jiang, S. (2011). Researc overview of 157.166. runoff model for urban rainwater. Krejcie, R. V and Morgan, D. W (1970) Journal of Water Resources and Water Determine Sample Size for Research Engineering 22. 132-137 (in Chinese). .

Volume 2, No. 1., Dec, (2020), 517-523 |[email protected]|