June 2020

Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus

Fanning the Flames of Domestic Political Crises: Corona in

Dr Thomas Schrapel

The Pandemic Is Both Fact and these figures seriously. There are, of course, Political Issue Alike various reasons for this tragic trajectory. What is striking, however, is that compared to Was the timing merely coincidence or neighbouring Georgia for example, the orchestrated political manoeuvring? On 1 June, government’s handling of the pandemic has long the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Paschinyan, become a political issue for the opposition. announced to the public that he himself and the closest members of his family, his wife and three “Hour of the Executive” Has Become daughters, had become infected with the corona an Admission of Failure virus. Anti-government members of Armenian society found it difficult to view this On the one hand, we can level criticism against communication in isolation of the current the government for having failed to fight the domestic political situation. The announcement, pandemic. At this point, it is critically noted that only one week later, that the Prime Minister’s too many politically inexperienced people were family and Paschinyan himself had now involved in Paschinyan’s government, who were recovered, reinforced speculations that officially unable to appropriately deal with the crisis. announcing the infection was nothing more than Indeed, it would seem that, for instance, having a diversionary tactic. Government measures allowed the Irish “Ryanair” to continue flights officially adopted to contain the pandemic, such from to Milan or even to Tehran well into as the state of emergency extended for the third the second half of March, was a flagrant mistake. time last weekend, are predominantly As we know, Northern and Iran were already interpreted in light of the prevailing political two of the most dangerous “corona hotspots” at climate. The number of those in Armenian society that time. who are critical of government seems to be As late as March, unprotected mass events were increasing every day. also held in some provinces of Armenia, at which

Regularly published figures on new cases of the government called for a referendum to corona virus in Armenia are disenchanting, dismiss members of the Constitutional Court. It perhaps even shocking. For weeks now this figure was then, at the latest, that public perception of has been increasing each day by 500 to more the pandemic became one and indivisible with than 700 new cases: this corresponds to up to other domestic political issues. The longstanding 4500 per week! A country like Armenia with its dispute fought out between the government and fragile healthcare infrastructure needs to take Constitutional Court will be examined below. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. Country Report June 2020 2

Raising doubts about official figures has now been possible. The resulting government now become commonplace among some government has to deal with opposition from both within and critics, on the other hand. They believe the outside parliament. This confronts the Prime figures to be too high because international aid is Minister and once charismatic hero of the “Velvet specifically “calculated” on the basis of these Revolution” with a new situation; and namely, statistics, and hence the government avails itself influential factions in civil society are increasingly of more aid than originally intended. A second turning their backs on the government. For reason for a supposed artificial inflation of instance, the co-founder of the NGO “Legal Way”, figures is because it enables the government to Ruben Melikyan, protested against further efficiently exploit drastic measures, such as extending the state of emergency – he was curfews, for stymieing political opposition under condemned to prison as a result. Only after the smokescreen of fighting the pandemic. protests, for example those held by the Chairman of the Armenian Helsinki Committee, was he Even though verifying these accusations is likely released. to prove very difficult in the current situation, such discussions, which are being widely debated If statements only came from the deputy leader in social and traditional media, illustrate how of the former “Republican” government party, deep the discrepancy between official policy and Armen Ashotyan, then political observers would its perception among large swathes of the most likely ignore it. After all, the parliamentary population has become. The former national clout of the “Republicans” was virtually swept hero, Paschinyan, now appears in public “only” as away by the “Velvet Revolution” two years ago. a Prime Minister who has to confront criticism For Ashotyan it is clear that the Prime Minister from both within and outside government on a would no longer wage war against corona, but daily basis. Some discussions portend that faith simply fight to hold onto power. in his government seems to be dwindling at breathtaking speed. Not only is the Prime Whereas now even prominent supporters of Minister accused of completely failing in the fight Paschinyan’s “Velvet Revolution” in 2018 are against corona, there are also growing suspicions increasingly distancing themselves from the that extraordinary measures are actually Prime Minister's government. Based on the intended to counter the opposition. Problems motto underpinning the then widespread protest with containing the pandemic are clear for all to movement when calls of “Sersch go away!” urged see, however. We merely have to consider this the longstanding President Sersch Sargsyan to fact alone: anyone with some knowledge of the step down, calls of “Nikol go away” now ring out cultural and historic conflict situation reigning in towards the once charismatic leader of the the South Caucus, will, at the very least, find it “Velvet Revolution”: Nikol Paschinyan. Although it rather remarkable that Armenia has now officially started as demands from individuals, ever larger asked Georgia for help in fighting the pandemic. sections of Armenian society are now heeding This is generally deemed to be a clear admission this call. of failure. It is not unusual for measures taken against “corona” to meet with criticism of politics, as we Is the “Velvet Revolution” Devouring also witness when looking at stable democracies. its own Children? But the debate raging in Armenia seems to be particularly widespread. With those criticising the The once broad alliance of Paschinyan supporters Paschinyan government having no longer been seems to be falling apart at the seams. In 2018, confined to social media activists for some time; these supporters included large sections of civil renowned politicians and civil society society from outside the parliament, without which the “Velvet Revolution” would not have

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representatives express doubt in official policy, Armenia” party with 17 seats. Representatives of too. this party are taking a clear stance against government measures. This is all the more Pressure on the erstwhile hero of the “Velvet striking because “Bright Armenia” belonged to Revolution” seems to grow every day. And in light the former alliance of parties, “My Step”, under of the criticism voiced among large sections of the leadership of Paschinyan, and in December civil society, Paschinyan is experiencing a kind of 2018 essentially entered parliament by riding on dejá-vu only two years after the revolution. Or is the wave of euphoria created by the “Velvet this just a kind of normality syndrome in the Revolution”. That means the Prime Minister is wake of revolution? now opposed by once important allies.

Ruling Party Continues to Enjoy a Gagik Tsarukyan, leader of the party “Prosperous Stable Balance of Power in Armenia” and also an active supporter of Parliament Paschinyan in 2018, was last Sunday summoned and interrogated by the National Security Service. Yet for all these observations, there is one thing With 25 seats, his party now represents the we shouldn’t forget: Paschinyan’s alliance of largest opposition faction. He accuses the Prime parties “My Step” continues to enjoy an absolute Minister of politically persecuting him with the majority in parliament with 88 of a total 132 help of the Security Service. This case also seats. In addition to two independent mandates, highlights how it is becoming increasingly difficult 42 seats are allocated to the parties “Prosperous for political observers to distinguish between Armenia” and “Bright Armenia”. Both parties actual criticism to anti-corona measures and supported the “Velvet Revolution” two years ago. fundamental political opposition. Tsarukyan at first called for the resignation of government What benchmarks should be applied when because it had failed in the fight against the assessing the current situation in Armenia? Just pandemic. over two years ago Paschinyan gained international acclaim as a highly esteemed One week later, the colourful oligarch was revolutionary hero. Enthusiasm for him seemed questioned by the Security Service, and at the to know no limits – he earned enormous levels of same time members of his party were arrested in trust both in Armenia and around the globe. It Armenian provinces. It is the temporal goes without saying that everything was to be coincidence of events that raises suspicion. On 16 done differently, and the majority in parliament June, the Paschinyan party finally voted in favour was in fact turned on its head. Many protesters of lifting the immunity ofTsanukyan. and members of civil society organisations Representatives from both opposition parties became politicians. Though for a long time now, “” and “Bright Armenia” they too are facing the realities of everyday abstained from the vote. politics. On 15 June, the Security Service initiated criminal The recently announced third extension of the proceedings against another prominent member state of emergency, which is now to last until 13 of the “Prosperous Armenia” party, the July, provided an opportunity for a number of parliamentarian, Naira Zohrabyan. Ms Zohrabyan opposition politicians to not only position is Chairperson of the Committee for “Human themselves against the corona measures, but to Rights and Public Affairs”. A number of arrests fundamentally attack the politics of Paschinyan as took place in Yerevan and other parts of Armenia well. Ever greater resistance is forming within on Sunday in connection with protests against parliament, too. The third largest fraction in the government measures. Armenian National Assembly constitutes “Bright

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On 17 June, the “Bright Armenia” fraction assume that such posts are only occupied by introduced two initiatives to parliament. Firstly, people in whom the respective head of an investigation committee is called upon to government has absolute trust. Vanetsyan is now address the failure of government with regard to also one of the Prime Minister’s political the fight against corona. Secondly, the opposition opponents. wants the Constitutional Court to verify the legality of the state of emergency imposed by The “Adekvad” party constitutes one of the most government. notable actors outside parliament that very openly opposes government policy and especially At the same time, nobody can claim that both of the Prime Minister himself. Initiated in 2018 as an the only opposition parties in parliament have emphatically “conservative movement”, acted destructively so far. On the contrary, in “Adekvad” has been officially registered as a party several legislative initiatives during the “corona since 2019. Its explosive nature is connected to era” alone since mid-March, representatives from one person: the towering figure of this party is both opposition parties voted in favour of Mikayel Minasyan, who was recently officially government bills or even introduced some presented as the party’s PM candidate. He is the themselves, which were then adopted by a son-in-law of the former President Sersch majority of representatives in the “My Step” Sargsyan who was ousted by Paschinyan. government coalition. In general we can say that the parliament in Armenia works regularly, and is What’s more, another self-proclaimed still accepted by the important opposition parties “conservative movement” is increasingly making as a place for political debate. headlines: “VETO”. In the past, its leader Narek Malian entered the political stage as an excessive The External Parliamentary opponent of the “Open Society Foundation”, which he accused of having financed Landscape Is Regrouping Paschiniyan’s “Velvet Revolution”. Prior to the Artur Ghazinyan, founder and leader of the party “revolution”, Malian was a close companion to the “One Armenia”, is convinced that the former police commissioner Vladimir Gasparyan. government’s corona measures are above all The causes of the critical domestic political directed against the political opposition. The situation are manifold, and date back well party “One Armenia”, one of the many new beyond the outbreak of the corona crisis. The formations, was only established in 2019 and pandemic is not the cause of the tense domestic therefore has not yet emerged as an political situation, but a veritable catalyst for it. independent political force. It is made up of influential lawyers and scientists, however. Conflict between Government and In the meantime, the parties “Prosperous Constitutional Court Armenia” and “Hayrenik” and the so-called “Armenian Revolutionary Federation” (ARF) have For months a conflict has been smouldering formed an alliance. The main demand is: the between the government and Constitutional resignation of Paschinyan and his entire Court. Paschinyan’s very personal commitment government. “Hayrenik” and “ARF” are parties in here is more than striking, and his goal is clearly which the Armenian diaspora have a strong to reshuffle members of the Constitutional Court. influence. The leader of the “Hayrenik” party is Of the nine constitutional judges in total, six as Artur Vanetsyan. He was installed by Paschinyan well as the Chairperson of the Constitutional immediately after the “Velvet Revolution” as head Court, Hrayr Tovmasyan, are to step down. Since of the National Security Service – one of the most early 2019, in other words shortly after the powerful authorities in the country. We can parliamentary election, judges at the

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Constitutional Court have unashamedly been against the first Armenian President Levon Ter- called upon to resign on many occasions. Since Petrosyan. they did not officially react, and criticism levelled against this government action grew ever Kotcharyan was still in office until the end of April stronger, Paschinyan used another dubious 2008, and thus responsible for the massive “offer” in an attempt to remove constitutional deployment of police and security forces that left judges, which he clearly disliked, from their posts. more than ten people dead. Events of that time If the judges were to “voluntarily” step down, they are building a politically and personally explosive would be paid their entire salary until reaching bridge to the present. That’s because one of the retirement age. In December 2019, a law was most active protesters against the alleged adopted in parliament to this end, stipulating that electoral fraud in 2008, was the then 32-year old affected parties ought to declare their resignation Nikol Paschinyan, who had supported Ter- under these conditions by the end of February Petrosyan in the election campaign. After protests 2020. None of the members of the Constitutional were violently repressed, Paschinyan managed to Court accepted this “offer”. keep a low profile at first. He was eventually arrested and spent one and a half years behind Seeing as the constitutional judges are not likely bars. He holds Kotcharyan, in particular, to back down, on Paschinyan’s instructions, responsible for his incarceration and the entire parliament made another attempt to “legally” deployment of security forces back then. Directly remove them from their posts in early February after Paschinyan’s accession to power in 2018, an 2020. A referendum is to provide an opportunity investigation was sought against him due to the for amending the constitution such that the events of that time. However, the local court constitutional judges can be prematurely responsible for the hearing turned to the removed from their posts. The Paschinyan party Constitutional Court in order to examine whether advocated for this referendum in March during the charge was even legal. Specifically, the public events (see above). The referendum itself question of the applicability of a criminal law was to be held on 5 April, which was prevented as article was at issue in this case. a result of corona measures. Yet, the Constitutional Court did not make a Regardless of the relatively robust and ultimately decision itself, and addressed this question to the dubious actions of one constitutional body European Court of Human Rights. This meant the against another, international observers asked process gained its own momentum, such that themselves why Paschinyan is so fiercely opposed was probably not intended by government; after to the Constitutional Court. Why does he all, it is hard to imagine that Paschinyan sought so recklessly disregard the fact that this matter much international attention with this. History could undermine his international reputation? As was to be reappraised with the help of justice. We it was of course inevitable that these actions cannot completely rule out the fact that personal would attract criticism. A key figure is the second satisfaction also has a role to play here. However, President of the Republic of Armenia, Robert this has led to a veritable constitutional crisis that Kotcharyan. Quite specifically, we are referring to continues to loom large to this day, and is taking events that took place at the very end of his its toll on domestic politics in Armenia. tenure in March 2008. Outlook: “Shut down” with a Strong The first of March 2008 witnessed violent clashes Political Dynamic between protesters and security forces in Yerevan. Protests were held against an alleged It is not yet possible to say how Armenia as a electoral fraud, which enabled Sersch Sargsyan to whole will survive the corona crisis. Domestic become elected in the first round of voting political disputes exacerbate or even prevent a

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sober analysis of the actual dimension described in this report dominate public underpinning the pandemic. discourse to the extent that we can infer from social and traditional media. Yet, Having said that, the Armenian government operate in a political culture that is perceived as continues to benefit from a real vote of highly personalised. That’s why it is of course confidence since the so-called “Velvet Revolution” interesting, for example, to scrutinise the current precisely two years ago. The last representative Prime Minister’s role in demonstrations that took survey (International Republican Institute) pace twelve years ago. But ultimately, this determined that 76 per cent of Armenians were Armenian government, too, will be measured by generally satisfied with the Prime Minister’s work. whether it is able to solve urgent economic That is a very promising figure. But that was in problems. In all corresponding surveys since October 2019 – so long before corona! More Paschinyan took office, Armenians cite recent surveys do not exist. unemployment and thus future prospects as the most pressing problem – constitutional crisis or We can also continue to assume that the majority not. of the Armenian population generally supports

the government's politics, despite conflicts as The path already pursued by the predecessor highlighted above. The issue that dominated the government to develop Armenia into a high-tech "Velvet Revolution" on all sides, the fight against hotspot, is being systematically continued under corruption, is still firmly on the agenda. Even the new government. What’s more, it would be though the country is far from turning its back on one of the few economic sectors that – due to corruption as an obstacle to economic growth, “corona” – has not yet been hit by such heavy there has been some success. According to financial losses compared to traditional ones. Transparency International (December 2019), it From a strategic perspective, the IT sector is also has been possible to reduce systemic corruption. all the more important for Armenia because it could greatly compensate for major Armenian’s expectations on the government disadvantages owing to the country’s relative remain high and time is running out, however. isolation with having closed two of the four The shut down as a result of the pandemic has borders. Having said that, an unemployment rate not resulted in political standstill. Quite the of approx. 20 per cent begs the question as to contrary: old conflicts have been and will be how many Armenians can participate in this intensified during the state of emergency and economic sector. The phenomenon of young new ones are arising. It will be interesting to Armenians migrating overseas has not been observe how civil society, the new parties and significantly curbed as yet. political alliances will develop outside the political In light of the significant impact that measures in apparatus. It was precisely two years ago that a the context of corona are having on current strong civil society shook the political foundations political developments, the dynamic trajectory of of the country, giving rise to completely new domestic policy conflicts in Armenia is likely to constellations. continue over the next few months. There is also a discrepancy in how Armenian

domestic policy is perceived. The lines of conflict

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.

Dr Thomas Schrapel Head of Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus European and International Cooperation www.kas.de

[email protected]

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