National Drought Management Authority Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2019
MARCH EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification
LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Marginal Mixed farming ALERT Deteriorating Livestock/Ranching ALERT Deteriorating Cash Cropping/Dairy ALERT Deteriorating Food Cropping ALERT Deteriorating COUNTY ALERT Deteriorating Biophysical Indicators (Environmental indicators) Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Minimal rains were recorded during the month under Average Rainfall (mm) 4.8 25.46 review. VCI-3month 34.4 35-50 The state of water sources was below normal at this time of Production indicators Value Normal ranges the year. Livestock Migration Pattern In- intra- The vegetation condition ranged between fair to poor migration migration across all livelihood zones with 3-month vegetation Livestock Body Conditions 4-5 6-8 condition index recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Milk Production Ltr/hh/day 4.5 ≥4.15
Crop condition No crop No crop Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Access Indicators Value Normal Production indicators On average livestock body condition ranged between fair to Terms of Trade (ToT) 110.8 ≥77.7 poor across the livelihood zones with a deteriorating trend. Milk Consumption (% range) 1.9 ≥1.4 Milk production recorded a slight increase. In-Migration and Intra migration of livestock reported Average Water Distance for 5.0 ≤5.0 during the month under review. Households (Km) Access indicators Average Grazing-Water point 6.8 ≤ 5.2 Milk consumption remained stable. Distance (Km) Household distances to the water recorded an increase. Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition Status, MUAC (% at 3.4 5.7 Livestock trekking distance to water sources increased risk of malnutrition) during the month Food price expected to remain high. Terms of trade in March were above long term mean. Utilization indicators The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition remained stable.
. Short rains harvests . Long rains . Long rains harvests . Short rains . Short dry spell . Planting/Weeding . A long dry spell . Planting/weeding . Reduced milk yields . High calving Rate . Land preparation . Increased HH Food Stocks . Milk yields Increase . Increased HH Food Stocks . Land preparation . Kidding (Sept)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
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1 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance Most parts of the county experienced sunny, hot and dry weather conditions during the month of March. During the month, higher-than-average daytime temperatures were recorded over the entire County which led to high rate of evaporation and evapotranspiration causing rapid drying of water pans.
Fig.1a; Seasonal rainfall and Vegetation visualization, WFP Vam The county recorded an average of 4.8mm of rain. Chakama and Mwarakaya in Magarini and Kilifi South sub counties recording 10.4mm and 19.4mm respectively. The average amount recorded during the month was 81 percent below long term mean at this time of the year as indicated in the figure below.
Figure 1b.Average Rainfall
2 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019 2.0 IMPACT ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation Condition 2.1.1 Vegetation Condition Index [VCI] The County vegetation condition index deteriorated from Normal VCI of 44.5 in month of February to moderate VCI of 34.4 during the month under review which is the same as 2018 same month. The vegetation condition for March was below the long term mean at this time of the year as illustrated by figure 2a below.
Figure 2a: Kilifi County 3Month VCI time series analysis
Ganze, Malindi, Kilifi North sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit of 29.13, 31.77 and 28.85 respectively during the month under review.
Figure 2b; Kilifi North Sub County Vegetation Condition Index. Vegetation condition continued deteriorating across all livelihood zones compared to normal at this time of the year as indicated in the table below. County/Sub County 3- month VCI for February -2019 3- Month VCI for March - 2019 Kilifi 44.5 34.4 Ganze 43.07 29.13 Kaloleni 58.34 44.11 Magarini 44.76 35.83 Malindi 39.24 31.77 Kilifi North 35.56 28.85 Rabai 56.24 48.38 Kilifi South 44.38 38.56 3 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019
2.1.2 Pasture Pasture condition across all the livelihood zones in the county was generally poor as majority of the household interviewed reported depleted pasture condition. 71.4% interviewed reported poor pasture condition while 28.6% interviewed reported fair pasture condition. The pasture condition was deteriorating fast due to the prevailing dry weather condition with cash/dairy cropping zones, ranching zones, Livestock farming zones and mixed farming zone reporting poor condition while Food cropping zones reporting fair pasture condition This was not normal at this time of the year. Figure 2c: March Analysis of pasture condition
2.1.3 Browse The browse condition deteriorated across all livelihood zones during the month. Some sampled households (23.8 percent) recorded good condition, 38.1 percent recorded fair condition while another 38.1 percent registered poor condition. The condition was below normal with worsening trend at this time of the year.
2.2 Water Resources Figure 2d: March Analysis of browse condition 2.3 2.2.1 Sources The main water sources for domestic and livestock use for the month under review were pans/dams at 23.1 percent and rivers at 30.8 percent. Other Sources were Traditional river wells, Shallow wells, springs and boreholes at 11.5%, 7.7% and 15.4 % respectively across all livelihood zones. Majority of Urban population depend on tap water in some parts of Magarini, Ganze and Kilifi North, Rabai, Kaloleni, Kilifi South and parts Ganze. Frequent breakdown of piped water was reported in several parts of the County leading to water shortages in some areas forcing several households to ration their consumption during the month. Significant number of small water pans across the livelihood zones had dried up leaving only strategic water pans and major rivers as the only alternative source of water in the county during the month.
4 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019 2.2.2 Household water access and utilization
Figure 2e: Households average distance to water points. Households’ average distance to water sources recorded an increase during the month under review from 4.7 km last month to 5km. The average highest average distance was recorded in ranching zone at 6.7 km during the month with some households recording 10-12 km in Bamba ward. This change in distance could be attributed to drying up of more water pans and frequent break down of piped water sources in Rabai, Kilifi south and Malindi sub counties. The cost of water in mixed farming zone of Kakuyuni ward, Malindi Sub County was Ksh 3 per 20 ltr Jerri can and Ksh 10 in food cropping zone of Jaribuni ward, Ganze Sub County with those buying from vendors paying an average of Kshs. 50 per Jerri can. The average distance during the month under review was stable compared to the long term mean at this time of the year.
5 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019 2.2.3 Livestock access to water
Figure 2e: Average livestock return distance to water point from grazing area. The average trekking distance from grazing area to water sources increased significantly by 30 percent during the month under review from 5.2 km recorded in February to 6.8km The increase in average distance can attributed to pasture stress as households trekked for long distances in search for pasture as more water pans dried up. The highest average distance was recorded in livestock/ranching zone at 14.1 km. The current average distance was 9.6 percent higher when compared to the long term mean at this time of the year.
6 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019 3.0 PRODUCTION 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock body condition The Livestock body condition ranged between fair to poor across the livelihood zones as pasture and water stress increased. The condition is expected to decline further if dry conditioncontinues to persist.
3.1.2 Livestock disease No major livestock disease reported during the month under review.
3.1.3 Livestock Migration Migration of livestock from neighbouring County of Tana river into Magarini and Ganze sub counties was reported. Intra-migration of livestock in the county from dry grazing areas was also reported. Human wildlife conflict in Adu ward, Magarini sub county along Galana-Sabaki river was reported where Elephants caused several destruction of irrigated farms along the river
3.1.4 Milk production
Figure 3: Average Milk Production Cows were the major producers of milk across all livelihood zones but due to in- migration from other counties, Camel milk was also available in the market in Chakama, Kilifi, Mariakani and Malindi. The slight increase in milk production posted was recorded in the ranching zone of Chakama, Magarini Sub County. The average milk production during the month was 8 percent higher than the LTA at this time of the year
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3.2 RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Stage and condition of food crops No main food crops were in the farms at this time of the year.
3.2.2. Crop Harvest Minimal harvest of water melons and pineapples was recorded in Magarini Sub County.
8 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1. LIVESTOCK MARKET 4.1.1 Cattle prices
Figure 4a: Average cattle price (4 year bull/steer) in major livestock markets in Kilifi County. The average cattle price for a 4 year bull during the month under review was recorded at Kshs 21,857 a decrease from Kshs 22,450 recorded in month of February. The average price during the month was 2.6 percent lower than average price recorded in previous month. The decrease can be attributed to decline in body condition due to pasture and water stress across all the livelihood zones. The highest average market price was recorded in Kilifi South sub county at Kshs 25,000 and lowest in Rabai Sub County at Kshs 18,000. The current average price was 50 percent higher than the long term mean at this time of the year and was normal during this time of the year
9 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019 4.1.2 Goat prices
Figure 4b: Average goat price (3 year old) at market level in Kilifi County. The average price of a 3 year old medium size buck during the month of March was Kshs. 4,138, 5 percent higher than previous month at Kshs 3,940. The slight increase can be attributed to low supply in the market. The highest average price was recorded in the mixed farming zone of Malindi sub county at Kshs 5,800 and lowest average price recorded in the ranching zone of Ganze sub county at Kshs 3,292 The current average price was 24 percent higher than the long term mean at this time of the year.
4.2 Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize
Figure 4c: Average maize price in Kilifi County. The average maize price per kilo decreased slightly from Kshs 41.1 in previous month of February to Kshs 37.3 in March. The average price decreased due to less demand for maize as more households preferred sifted maize meal. The average maize price was lower than LTA at this time of the year by 15 percent when compared
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4.2.2 Beans
Figure 4d: Average beans price in Kilifi County The average selling price for a kilo of beans increased slightly by 3 percent from Kshs. 74.5 in February to Kshs.76 in the month of March. The slight increase in average price can be attributed to increased demand as green vegetables remained scarce in the market following the dry spell. The highest average beans prices were recorded in the food cropping zone of Kilifi South and marginal mixed farming zone of Kaloleni sub counties at Kshs 87 and Kshs 88 respectively and lowest recorded in Ganze Sub County at Kshs 60. The current average price was 30 percent lower compared to the long term mean at this time of the year. 4.3 Terms of Trade (TOT)
Figure 4e: Terms of Trade for Kilifi County The Terms of Trade during the month under review was slightly favorable to farmers compared to the previous month as households were able to purchase 110.8kg of maize with sale of a mature goat. On average a significant increase of 14 percent in ToT was recorded during the month and this is attributed to decrease in maize prices as goat prices recorded some increase. The Terms of Trade during the month under review were 56 percent above the LTA at this time of the year.
11 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019 5.0 NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption
Figure 5a: Milk consumption chart The average milk consumption per household per day remained stable during the month under review. The average milk consumption is expected to decrease in subsequent months owing to poor livestock body condition as pasture and water stress increased. The current average milk consumption was 35 percent above LTA at this time of the year. 5.2 Health and Nutrition Status 5.2.1 Mid Upper Arm Circumstance (MUAC)
Figure 5b: Proportion of children under five years at risk of malnutrition The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition aged five years and below with cutoffs of 125-134 mm remained stable compared to the previous month. The stability can be attributed increased sensitization on proper nutrition by MoH stakeholders, supplementary foods at health facilities, relief food distribution and school meals programme including ECDs. Few cases of morbidity Malaria, URTI, Diarrhoea were recorded during the month under review. The current March percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 2.28 percent lower than the LTA at this time of the year.
12 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019 Stunting was high in the county recording 36.1% ( 4 in every 10) children under age of 5 due to chronic malnutrition within the first 1000 days 5.2.2 Food Consumption Score.
Figure 5c: Food Consumption Score. Significant percentage of sampled households in the County during the month under review reported acceptable food consumption score at 90 percent. Some households in Mixed farming, marginal Mixed farming, ranching and food cropping livelihood zones recorded moderate food consumption score while 6.7% of households in ranching zones are in poor food consumption score. More households expected to shift to borderline or poor as household food stress continued to increase during the month. More households in Ganze, Malindi, Kaloleni are projected to be food insecure come next month.
13 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019 5.3 COPING STARTEGIES 5.3.1 Coping Strategy Index
Figure 5d: Coping Strategy Index for Kilifi County The mean Coping Strategy Index (CSI) increased slightly from 2.14 in February to 2.47 during the month under review. Household food shortage in ranching/livestock, marginal mixed and food cropping zones was high as households employed different copping strategies. Most employed coping strategy among households were; . Reduced quantity of food consumed by adults to ensure children get enough to eat . Reduced number of meal rations per day . Opting for less preferred or cheaper meals . Spending savings
14 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019 6.0 ONGOING INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Food- aid Regular school meals programme Water trucking to few affected institutions and communities in Ganze, Kaloleni and parts of Magarini Sub Counties County and national government relief food distribution
6.2 Non-food aid Routine Health Sector interventions Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) Infant Young Child Nutrition Interventions (Exclusive Breast Feeding and Timely Introduction of complementary Foods) Micronutrient powder supplementation across the heath facilities and Zinc Supplementation for Children with diarrhea Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women
Livestock sector Purchase and distribution of Dairy cows to farmers by the county government Community capacity building on value chains along agriculture and livestock sectors under NARIGP programme
Agriculture Sector County tractors’ land preparation across all livelihood zones for the 2019 long rains Farm input distribution through voucher systems by Caritas Mombasa Distribution of seeds for long rains by County government
Water sector Construction of bulk water main pipelines Malindi-Kilifi and Langobaya- Marereni – CGK, World Bank Pipeline extension Borehole drilling in Rabai sub county by County Government Water distribution to affected institutions
15 Kilifi County Drought Early Warning Bulletin - March 2019 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES Resource conflicts in Ganze and Magarini sub counties Increased temperatures and delayed long rains season.
7.1 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Following increased temperatures and poor recharge of surface water sources, a number of water pans have dried up forcing households to trek long distances in search for water thus less time devoted to land preparation for the season As more water sources dried up, demand for increased water trucking expected. Poor performance of the 2018 shorts rains, households food security was declining fast, and more households expected to rely on relief food till next harvest Due to food shortages recorded at household level, closing of schools soon the number of children at risk of malnutrition is likely to increase.
8. RECOMMENDATIONS Water Sector Excavation of dams (Bamba, Mwanamwinga, Kayafungo and Adu wards) for water harvesting for both households, livestock and micro irrigation Desilting of pans and dams for long rains season for maximum recharge e.g Ndigiria, Kayafungo pans Water trucking to affected institutions and areas Livestock Sector Community sensitization for commercial destocking as pasture and water increased. Feed supplementation as pasture stress increased
Heath Sector Intensified mass screening for malnutrition case findings for early response. Increased supply of commodities to strategic health facilities
Agriculture Sector Close monitoring of the long rains season Timely distribution of farm inputs for the long rains, advising farmers on the right seeds as rains season delayed Increased tractor-land preparation for the long rains season Early Community sensitization on prevention of Fall Army Worm
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