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Europe Today Country Sector 17 February 2014 Europe Today Today Christopher Potts upgrades the Italian market from Catherine Rolland comments on last week’s roadshow with neutral to overweight, believing that 2013 marked the end Edenred’s management, highlighting the quality of the of Italy’s chronic underperformance within the European group’s performance in Latam last year. She reiterates her context, and considering that 2014 is the “now-or-never” positive view on the story; we see 34% upside from current year for an Italian outperformance. Accordingly, Marco prices. In the small- and mid-cap segment, Matthijs Van Baccaglio states that among the stocks in our Italian Leijenhorst initiates coverage on D’Ieteren with a Reduce Selected List (Atlantia, ENEL Green Power, Finmeccanica, rating and a target price of EUR33, and Natalia Bobo Gtech and Telecom Italia), Atlantia is the story that might upgrades her rating on Almirall from Hold to Buy, raising hes benefit the most from the recovery of the Italian economy. target price from EUR12 to EUR16. Today's top research news Almirall () A turn for the better X X Axway Software (Hold) Downgrade from Buy to Hold X X Cairo Communication (Buy) TP raised to EUR7.8 after better Q4 2013 results X X Gerresheimer (Hold) Feedback from conference call, TP up to EUR50 x x IMA (Buy) Powerful FY 2013 backlog, estimates and TP up X X Interpump Group (Buy) TP up from EUR9.7 to EUR12.3 X X Lagardère (Buy) Buys out France Télévisions’ minority in Gulli X X Télévision Française 1 (Buy) FY 2013 earnings (due on 19 February) preview x x Italy Highlights from our Italian Selected List X X Rating and target price changes Roadshow pipeline Company Rating Target Price Cairo Communication New Buy EUR7.8 03/02 Coloplast - Geneva SWITZERLAND 2/17/2014 Old Buy EUR7.3 04/02 Coloplast - Zurich SWITZERLAND Givaudan New Buy CHF1500 05/02 Givaudan - Zurich SWITZERLAND 2/17/2014 Old Buy CHF1375 05/02 Coloplast - Milan ITALY Husqvarna New Reduce SEK43.5 06/02 Klepierre SA - Paris FRANCE 2/17/2014 Old Reduce SEK37.5 07/02 Dassault Systèmes - Lunch - Paris FRANCE IMA New Buy EUR34 08/02 Danske Bank A/S - London - CFO UK 2/17/2014 Old Buy EUR28 10/02 Banca Generali SpA - London UK Interpump Group New Buy EUR12.3 10/02 Danske Bank A/S - London CEO UK 2/17/2014 Old Buy EUR9.7 11/02 Givaudan - Edinburgh SWITZERLAND Click here for full list of changes xx Ratings info Click here to attend roadshow Booking online Country Sector Frontp Today’s research by country Belgium D’Ieteren (Reduce) x x Waiting for the third pillar Denmark GN Store Nord (Buy) X X Momentum to continue France Axway Software (Hold) Eutelsat (Buy) X X x x Downgrade from Buy to Hold Highlights from interim results meeting Ingenico (Buy) Lagardère (Buy) X X X X Solid FY results on 19 February after market Buys out France Télévisions’ minority in Gulli M6 Métropole télévision (Buy) Imerys (Buy) x x x x FY 2013 earnings (due on 18 February) preview Counterbid on Amcol Télévision Française 1 (Buy) Veolia Environnement (Reduce) x x x x FY 2013 earnings (due on 19 February) preview A CEO under pressure Germany Gerresheimer (Hold) Volkswagen (Buy) x x X X Feedback from conference call, TP up to EUR50 Voting against unionisation Italy Beni Stabili (Buy) Cairo Communication (Buy) X X X X The trough appears to be over TP raised to EUR7.8 after better Q4 2013 results IMA (Buy) Interpump Group (Buy) X X X X Powerful FY 2013 backlog, estimates and TP up TP up from EUR9.7 to EUR12.3 Netherlands UNIT4 (Accept Offer) x x Results in line, slightly disappointing outlook Spain Almirall X X A turn for the better Country Sector Frontp Sweden Ericsson (Buy) X X Global strategic agreement with Ciena Switzerland Givaudan (Buy) X X Roadshow, IFF results confirm our positive view Country Sector Frontp Today’s research by sector Autos & parts Volkswagen (Buy) X X Voting against unionisation Capital goods IMA (Buy) Interpump Group (Buy) X X X X Powerful FY 2013 backlog, estimates and TP up TP up from EUR9.7 to EUR12.3 Chemicals Givaudan (Buy) X X Roadshow, IFF results confirm our positive view Construction & materials Imerys (Buy) x x Counterbid on Amcol General retail D’Ieteren (Reduce) x x Waiting for the third pillar IT hardware & telco eqpmt Ericsson (Buy) Ingenico (Buy) X X X X Global strategic agreement with Ciena Solid FY results on 19 February after market IT software & services Axway Software (Hold) UNIT4 (Accept Offer) X X x x Downgrade from Buy to Hold Results in line, slightly disappointing outlook Media Cairo Communication (Buy) Eutelsat (Buy) X X x x TP raised to EUR7.8 after better Q4 2013 results Highlights from interim results meeting Lagardère (Buy) M6 Métropole télévision (Buy) X X x x Buys out France Télévisions’ minority in Gulli FY 2013 earnings (due on 18 February) preview Télévision Française 1 (Buy) x x FY 2013 earnings (due on 19 February) preview Medtech & services GN Store Nord (Buy) Gerresheimer (Hold) X X x x Momentum to continue Feedback from conference call, TP up to EUR50 Country Sector Frontp Pharma & biotech Almirall X X A turn for the better Property Beni Stabili (Buy) X X The trough appears to be over Utilities Veolia Environnement (Reduce) x x A CEO under pressure Country Story Italy X X Highlights from our Italian Selected List ggggggg 17 February 2014 Rating change Positive Almirall Spain | Pharma & biotech Target price Current price Natalia Bobo [email protected] (Hold) EUR 16.00 EUR 11.82 Buy +34 914 36 5165 A turn for the better Front page 2013: a year of key product launches Aqua deal: accretive and strategic Reuters ALM.MC Bloomberg ALM SM Net profit and free cash flow acceleration from 2014 Index DJ Stoxx 600 Rating upgraded from Hold to Buy, TP up from EUR12 to EUR16 Market data Market cap (EURm) 2,042 Free float 33% 2013: a year of key product launches No. of shares outstanding (m) 173 Almirall carried out 30 product launches in 2013 in different geographies Avg. daily trading volume('000) 516 YTD abs performance -0.2% and our assessment so far is that the main markets for the key products 52-week high (EUR) 12.99 are already on track and ready for further upside. Aclidinium has 52-week low (EUR) 8.69 succeeded in key countries like Spain (12% market share among LAMAs by November), Germany (7.8%), Italy (9.2%) and the US (3.4%). In fact, 13.0 Aclidinium is already Almirall’s top product by sales (EUR81.2m estimated 12.5 contribution for 2013, 12% of total). We expect that the combination with 12.0 Formoterol will be launched in Europe in 2015 and by March we will have 11.5 11.0 the FDA feedback on the US filing (on standby due to regulatory concerns 10.5 over CMC issues). In our base case scenario, we assume the launch will be 10.0 delayed by one year (from 2015 to 2016) and estimate a lower long-term 9.5 market share for the combo in the US COPD market (6% versus 7.8%). 9.0 8.5 Aqua deal: accretive and strategic feb 13 may 13 ago 13 nov 13 feb 14 Price DJ Stoxx 600 (rebased) The recent acquisition of the US company, Aqua will give Almirall access to the world’s largest derma market, through a highly efficient company with FY to 31/12 (EUR) 2013E 2014E 2015E Sales (m) 691.7 835.7 904.8 EBITDA margins in excess of 35%. We expect significant EPS accretion in EBITDA adj (m) 79.9 143.8 235.6 the first year (+23%) and potential cross-selling synergies in derma, which EBIT adj (m) 10.0 70.2 160.6 should account for 30% of Almirall’s revenues (versus 19% previously). Net profit adj (m) 23.5 73.5 142.5 Net fin. debt (m) 213.4 185.5 46.8 FCF (m) 6.8 30.3 167.5 Net profit and free cash flow acceleration from 2014 EPS adj. and fully dil. 0.14 0.43 0.82 We expect 2013 to be a trough year for Almirall’s net profit and FCF. Consensus EPS 0.22 0.41 0.64 From 2014, we expect the company to enjoy a higher sales contribution Net dividend 0.01 0.17 0.34 from new products, a reduced commercial effort, the consolidation of FY to 31/12 (EUR) 2013E 2014E 2015E Aqua and lower personnel expenses as the recently announced P/E (x) adj and ful. dil. 86.3 27.8 14.3 restructuring will be visible in the P&L. We increase our EPS estimates by EV/EBITDA (x) 28.6 15.7 9.0 EV/EBIT (x) na 32.2 13.2 31% for 2014E and 2015E. FCF yield 0.3% 1.5% 8.2% Dividend yield 0.1% 1.5% 2.8% Rating upgraded from Hold to Buy, TP up from EUR12 to EUR16 Net debt/EBITDA (x) 3.2 1.6 0.4 We lift our TP from EUR12 to EUR16 as we roll over our model to the end Gearing 23.7% 19.1% 4.3% of 2014. We also assume a lower WACC (lower interest rates, higher ROIC 0.9% 6.2% 14.6% EV/IC (x) 2.9 2.9 2.8 leverage) and factor in the Aqua acquisition and restructuring in Europe.
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