By Ira Helfand

The Humanitarian Consequences of Nuclear War

n March, 130 nations gathered in Oslo for indicates that even a very limited nuclear war, confined to one region of the a two-day conference on the humanitarian globe, would have devastating effects worldwide. consequences of nuclear war. The five In 2006, climatologist Alan Robock; I Brian Toon, a professor of atmospheric countries that the nuclear Nonproliferation and oceanic sciences; and four colleagues examined the consequences of a Treaty (NPT) recognizes as nuclear-weapon potential limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan.1 They chose to states staged a coordinated boycott, arguing examine the effects of this scenario because of the two countries’ long history that a meeting that discussed what will actually of conflict and the ongoing risk of a nuclear exchange. India and Pakistan happen if nuclear weapons are used would have fought three wars since they gained somehow distract them from the important independence in 1947 and have come close to war twice when armed with initiatives they are pursuing to lower the number nuclear weapons. During one crisis in the 1990s, it was reported that Pakistani of nuclear weapons that they possess. planes armed with nuclear bombs were kept on the runway with their engines running 24 hours a day so they would Next February, there will be a follow- and the four other NPT nuclear-weapon be ready for takeoff on a few minutes’ up conference in Mexico to further states should participate in the Mexico notice.2 It is easy to imagine events, delineate the medical effects of nuclear conference and actively promote the such as an increase in tension over the war as they are now understood and to process launched in Oslo to educate disputed territories in Kashmir or another consider the circumstances under which policymakers and the general public terrorist attack like those at the Indian nuclear war might occur. about the catastrophic humanitarian parliament in 2001 or in Mumbai in Far from being a distraction, these consequences of nuclear war. 2008, that could escalate into full-scale

ODAY November 2013 ODAY meetings are helping to create the This task is particularly urgent in warfare and the use of nuclear weapons. conditions necessary for the elimination view of the new data that have emerged In their study, Robock and Toon of nuclear weapons. The United States over the last few years. This information assumed that each country used 50

Ira Helfand is co-president of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War and a past president of the organization’s U.S.

ARMS CONTROL T affiliate, Physicians for Social Responsibility. He is an internist and emergency medicine physician practicing at the Family Care Medical Center in Springfield, Massachusetts. 22 Fredrik V Fredrik arfjell/AFP/Getty Images arfjell/AFP/Getty

Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide (left) talks with actor Martin Sheen in Oslo on March 4 during a conference on the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons use.

nuclear bombs, each with an explosive precipitation patterns. specialist Lili Xia and Robock examined power of 15 kilotons—the power of Further, by heating the upper the impact on middle-season rice the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in atmosphere, the soot particles would production in China and found a 15 1945—against urban targets in the cause a major decrease in stratospheric percent decline from the prewar level for other country. The weapons involved ozone. By allowing substantially more the 10 years following this conflict.5 represent less than one-half of the ultraviolet light to reach the earth’s The world is not prepared to deal with current Indian and Pakistani arsenals surface, this would further reduce crop this kind of significant decline in food and less than 0.5 percent of the world’s yields. The soot particles would be production. World grain reserves amount nuclear arsenals. The local effects were injected so high in the atmosphere that to less than 70 days of consumption devastating: 20 million dead in the first they would not be washed out by rainfall. and would not offer a significant buffer week from blast effects, burns, and acute Their effects would persist for a full against a sharp and sustained reduction radiation exposure. Even more disturbing decade until they gradually settled back in grain harvests.6 In addition, 870 were their findings concerning the far- to earth. million people in the world today already reaching disruption to global climate The climate disruption predicted are malnourished.7 They receive less than conditions that this conflict would cause. by the Robock-Toon study has been the 1,800 calories per day required for the The scientists found that the firestorms independently confirmed in separate average adult to maintain his or her body generated by these nuclear explosions studies done by climatologists Michael mass and do a small amount of physical 2 3 would loft about 5 million tons of black Mills and Andrea Stenke, each of whom work to gather or grow food. Even a 10 ARMS CONTROL TODAY November 2013 soot high into the atmosphere. The soot considered the same limited war scenario or 15 percent decline from these levels would block out sunlight, dropping but used a different climate model. of food consumption, sustained over a surface temperatures across the planet In the last two years, a number of full decade, would be catastrophic. The by an average of 1.3 degrees Celsius. studies have attempted to look at the decline in food consumption, however, The cooling would be much more severe effect this climate disruption would have probably would be much larger than the in the internal regions of the major on food production. Environmental decline in food production. Market forces continents, shortening the growing scientist Mutlu Özdogan looked at would magnify the impact with large season in areas where much of the soybean production and corn production rises in food prices, making even the world’s grain is produced. In addition, the in the U.S. Corn Belt and found an available food inaccessible to the poor, cooling would lower total precipitation average decline of 7 percent in soybean who are already malnourished precisely worldwide as less water evaporated from production and 12 percent in corn because they cannot afford enough food the oceans to fall back as rain or snow, production in the decade following at current prices. and there would be significant changes in a limited war in South Asia.4 Crop Furthermore, some 300 million 23 people live in countries where, although industrial world, would be spared actual capable of causing the same or greater most people enjoy adequate nutrition . The latest studies suggest that degrees of climate disruption. today, much of the food is imported. there might be widespread starvation in More worrisome are the arsenals of the Most of the countries of North Africa China, putting another 1.3 billion people nuclear superpowers. Each U.S. Trident and the Middle East and many of the at risk. At the very least, the predicted submarine can carry 96 warheads, each wealthy industrial countries of East food shortfalls would create a decade of of which is 10 to 30 times more powerful Asia, including Japan, South Korea, severe economic and social instability in than the weapons that were considered and Taiwan, fall into this category. In China, which is the largest country in the in the South Asia study. That means that

[E]ven a…limited nuclear war would be a global catastrophe, with severe humanitarian consequences extending far beyond the countries directly involved in the conflict.

the face of significant declines in food world and has the world’s second-largest each of these submarines can cause this production, it is probable that grain- and most dynamic economy. China also nuclear famine scenario many times over. exporting countries would suspend has a large nuclear arsenal of its own, The United States has 14 of them, as well exports. This has happened repeatedly, estimated to be nearly 300 warheads, as an arsenal of land-based missiles and for limited periods of time, over the about 50 to 75 of which are deliverable a fleet of strategic bombers armed with last decade in response to local crop by land-based intercontinental ballistic cruise missiles and gravity bombs. The shortfalls. Thus, these 300 million people missiles. Russian arsenal has a similar degree of also would face severe food insecurity. There are no simulations examining overkill capacity. In April 2012, at the Nobel Peace whether there will be similar shortfalls The danger of nuclear war is often Laureates Summit in Chicago, in other temperate-zone grain producers dismissed as a low-probability event International Physicians for the such as Canada, Russia, the United States, and therefore not a cause for concern. Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) and and Europe except for Özdogan’s study of The vast majority of the population, its U.S. affiliate, Physicians for Social corn and soybeans in the United States. including people who were intensely Responsibility, released a report, “Nuclear In the absence of such studies, it seems aware of the nuclear danger during the Famine,” examining this potential prudent to assume that these countries Cold War, behaves as if this were true. catastrophe.8 The report concluded that might well suffer the same major food Yet, the danger of nuclear war did not go more than one billion people might shortages that are now predicted for away when the Berlin Wall came down. starve as a result of a limited, regional China. The arsenals remain, and the chance nuclear war. of nuclear war is not at all remote. As Since then, Xia and Robock have Regional War, Global Impact the number of nuclear-armed states generated new data examining the In the 1980s, there was a general increases, especially as nuclear arsenals impact of a limited nuclear war in South understanding that large-scale nuclear grow in areas of chronic and seemingly Asia on grain crops other than rice in war between the United States and the intractable conflict, such as South Asia China. Their findings, which will be Soviet Union would be a disaster, not and the Middle East, the danger becomes published later this year, show that just for those countries but for the whole even greater. these other grains are affected much planet.9 From the studies described The possibility of war between the more severely than rice. In particular, above, it is clear that even a much more nuclear superpowers also still exists. production of the second-largest grain limited nuclear war would be a global Even if the likelihood of a deliberate crop, winter wheat, is projected to fall 31 catastrophe, with severe humanitarian nuclear war between the United States percent. consequences extending far beyond and Russia has declined, there remains These new findings suggest that the the countries directly involved in the the very real possibility of an accidental “Nuclear Famine” report may have conflict. nuclear war. There have been at least five

ODAY November 2013 ODAY seriously underestimated the extent These findings have significant incidents since 1979 in which Moscow of the catastrophe that would follow a implications for nuclear weapons policy or Washington was prepared to start a regional nuclear conflict and that arms choices in South Asia and for the policies nuclear war in the mistaken belief that control advocates need to fundamentally of other states toward India and Pakistan. it was already under attack by the other rethink their assumptions about limited Yet, the issue extends well beyond South side.10 The most recent known incident nuclear war. The report assumed that Asia. The arsenals of China, France, occurred in January 1995, a full five ARMS CONTROL T China, along with most of the rest of the Israel, and the United Kingdom are all years after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The 24 conditions that existed then have not the height of the Cold War have been nuclear-capable heavy bombers.” Even the changed fundamentally. dismantled, but nearly 20,000 remain. most worrisome estimate of the potential Human error, a computer failure, Although the weapons did not go away, damage caused by a does or perhaps a cyberattack launched by an understanding of their terrible not envision anything like the death of a terrorist group all could lead to the destructive power faded from the world’s a billion people. U.S. policy that equates unintended launch of nuclear weapons. consciousness. Today, the medical these threats and considers nuclear war The new understanding of the climatic consequences of nuclear war are not in retaliation for a cyberattack betrays consequences of nuclear war makes it widely known, and there is inadequate a profound and dangerous failure to clear that even a very limited use of these appreciation of how dangerous it is to understand fully the threat that nuclear weapons would be disastrous. formulate nuclear policy without this weapons pose. In his June speech in Berlin, President knowledge. This lack of information is not Barack Obama called for further A generation has come of age since confined to the Defense Department. reductions in the U.S. and Russian the end of the Cold War, young people Senior officials at the Department of arsenals, suggesting a new target of who have never been taught about the State have privately acknowledged that 1,000 warheads on each side. This is a destruction that nuclear weapons can they have not been aware of the nuclear useful and important step in the right cause. People who lived through the famine data and that this information direction, but only if it is indeed a step Cold War, including many policymakers has not factored into policy decisions.12 toward further reductions designed to in nuclear-weapon states, have largely Fortunately, there is a growing eliminate nuclear weapons altogether. If forgotten what will happen if these movement to promote understanding these reductions serve to legitimize the weapons are used and are completely of the actual consequences of nuclear indefinite retention of nuclear weapons unfamiliar with the new data on the war and of the need to make these at an “acceptable” level, they will not catastrophic global effects of a “limited” consequences the starting point from fundamentally reduce the nuclear nuclear war. which future nuclear policy flows. threat, for arsenals of this size would In November 2011, the International still pose an existential threat to human Attention Needed Committee of the Red Cross called for civilization. An example of the dangerous inattention the complete elimination of nuclear During the Cold War, there was to the humanitarian consequences of weapons and called on all national a widespread understanding of the nuclear war is the report released in Red Cross and Red Crescent societies medical consequences of nuclear war. January by the Defense Science Board, an to launch educational campaigns That understanding and the further advisory group to the U.S. Department of on “the catastrophic humanitarian understanding that nuclear war was a Defense.11 The report argued that “while consequences” of nuclear war and the real and immediate possibility fostered the manifestation of a nuclear and cyber inability of the Red Cross and Red the development of a large movement attack are very different, in the end, the Crescent to respond in a meaningful in civil society that played an important existential impact to the United States way if nuclear weapons are used.13 In role in convincing the leadership of the is the same” and concluded that “the the nongovernmental community, the nuclear superpowers to stop and then situation today is such that the ultimate IPPNW has launched a new campaign, reverse the arms race. U.S. deterrent, including response against the International Campaign to Abolish Unfortunately, the problem of a catastrophic full spectrum cyber attack, Nuclear Weapons, which has grown nuclear war did not end when the is the nuclear triad—intercontinental far beyond the medical community to Berlin Wall came down. Many of the ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine- encompass a broad swath of civil society. 70,000 nuclear weapons that existed at launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and At an April 22-May 3 meeting in Geneva of the Preparatory Committee for the 2015 NPT Review Conference, South Africa presented a statement

on behalf of 80 countries citing the ARMS CONTROL TODAY November 2013 impossibility of responding adequately to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of nuclear war and calling for the abolition of nuclear weapons.14 Scott Olson/Getty Images Olson/Getty Scott By October 21, a similar statement at the United Nations had gained the signatures of 125 countries. On September 26, there was a high- level meeting of the UN General Assembly on nuclear disarmament. Soybeans are harvested near Worthington, Minnesota, on October 2. According Statements delivered by a wide range to recent study, soybean production in the U.S. Corn Belt would drop by about 7 of states reflected the same focus on percent in the decade following a limited war in South Asia. humanitarian effects rather than security 25 doctrines and power politics. These and the consequences of declining http://www.ippnw.org/pdf/nuclear-famine- statements emphasized how such a focus that treatment. Yet, the world today ippnw-0412.pdf. leads to an understanding of the urgent continues to maintain arsenals of nuclear 9. Mark A. Harwell, : The Human need for nuclear abolition. weapons that threaten its existence, and and Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War As Austrian President Heinz Fischer the public’s continued consent to this (New York: Springer-Verlag, 1984). said, profoundly dangerous situation cannot be considered informed. Indeed, even 10. Benjamin B. Fischer, “A Cold War “[T]he discourse on nuclear weapons many decision-makers do not seem to Conundrum: The 1983 Soviet War Scare,” has been dominated by traditional be aware of the consequences that could Center for the Study of Intelligence, July 7, national security considerations.... arise from the policies they are pursuing. 2008, https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for- [I]t is overdue to move beyond It is the central belief of the physicians’ the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/ such a narrow perspective. … Any movement that when the global books-and-monographs/a-cold-war- nuclear weapons use would cause community does become informed, it conundrum/source.htm. severe humanitarian emergencies will again demand that nuclear weapons 11. Defense Science Board, “Resilient Military and have global consequences for be eliminated. The movement for nuclear Systems and the Advanced Cyber Threat,” the environment, global health, the disarmament secured a great but partial January 2013, http://www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/ climate, the social order, human victory in the closing years of the Cold reports/ResilientMilitarySystems.CyberThreat. development and the economy. War. The new data on the consequences pdf. … Nuclear weapons should be of nuclear war underscore the importance stigmatized, banned and eliminated of finishing the job. 12. U.S. Department of State official, before they abolish us.”15 conversation with author, Washington, DC, ENDNOTES September 10, 2013.

All of these threads will come together 13. International Committee of the Red Cross, 1. Alan Robock et al., “Climatic Consequences at the upcoming meeting in Mexico. resolutions of the 2011 Council of Delegates of of Regional Nuclear Conflicts,”Atmospheric Perhaps this time, the United States the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 7, No. 8 (2007): and the other nuclear-armed states will Movement and of the 31st International 2003-2012. choose to attend and use this important Conference of the Red Cross and Red Crescent, forum to build further international 2. Michael Mills et al., “Multi-Decadal Global October 2012, http://www.icrc.org/eng/assets/ support for the complete elimination of Cooling and Unprecedented Ozone Loss files/publications/icrc-002-1130.pdf. these weapons. Some of the countries Following a Regional Nuclear Conflict” (copy 14. Government of South Africa, “Joint that will attend the Mexico meeting on file with author). are discussing a possible treaty to ban Statement on the Humanitarian Impact of nuclear weapons, a treaty that will make 3. Andrea Stenke et al., “Climate and Nuclear Weapons,” April 24, 2013, http:// the use or possession of nuclear weapons Chemistry Effects of a Regional Scale Nuclear papersmart.unmeetings.org/en/secretariat/ illegal.16 Such a treaty would not take the Conflict,”Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, unoda/second-session-of-the-preparatory- place of a nuclear weapons convention, Vol. 13, No. 19 (2013): 9713-9729. committee-2013/statements/ (statement by South Africa on behalf of the Humanitarian an agreement among the nuclear-armed 4. Mutlu Özdogan, Alan Robock, and Initiative during the second session of the states that spells out the concrete steps Christopher J. Kucharik, “Impacts of a Nuclear Preparatory Committee for the 2015 Review and timeline for actual dismantlement of War in South Asia on Soybean and Maize Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the their nuclear arsenals and the verification Production in the Midwest United States,” Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons). and enforcement measures that will Climatic Change, Vol. 116, No. 2 (January 2013): be needed to assure adherence to the 373-387. 15. Permanent Mission of Austria to the United convention. Nations, statement by President Heinz Fischer 5. Lili Xia and Alan Robock, “Impacts of a A treaty banning nuclear weapons at the High Level Meeting of the General Nuclear War in South Asia on Rice Production would help to further delegitimize Assembly on Nuclear Disarmament, September in Mainland China,” Climatic Change, Vol. 116, nuclear weapons and put pressure on 26, 2013, http://www.un.org/en/ga/68/ No. 2 (January 2013): 357-372. those nuclear-weapon states that are meetings/nucleardisarmament/pdf/AT_en.pdf. reluctant to meet their obligations 6. Food and Agriculture Organization of the 16. Ray Acheson and Beatrice Fihn, under Article VI of the NPT. The Obama United Nations (FAO), “World Food Situation,” “Preventing Collapse: The NPT and a Ban on administration, which “seek[s] the http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs- Nuclear Weapons,” Reaching Critical Will, peace and security of a world without home/csdb/en/ (release date July 11, 2013). October 2013, http://www.reachingcriticalwill. ODAY November 2013 ODAY nuclear weapons,”17 should embrace this 7. FAO, “The State of Food Security in the org/images/documents/Publications/npt-ban. initiative. World 2013,” 2013, p. 8, http://www.fao.org/ pdf. A first principle of the medical docrep/018/i3434e/i3434e.pdf. community is that health care decisions 17. Office of the Press Secretary, The White must be based on informed consent: 8. Ira Helfand, “Nuclear Famine: A Billion House, “Remarks by President Barack Obama, patients need to understand the People at Risk,” International Physicians for Hradcany Square, Prague, Czech Republic,” ARMS CONTROL T consequences of proposed treatment the Prevention of Nuclear War, April 2012, April 5, 2009. 26 Information Is Influence.

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