5/4/2020

SKYWARN Severe Weather Spotter Training We are a Federal Government Agency

Department of Commerce

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Daniel Noah National Warning Coordination Meteorologist – Tampa Bay Area Weather [email protected] Service

Local Weather National Storm River Forecast Forecast Hurricane Prediction Center Office Center Center

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 1 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 2

122 NWS Local Weather Forecast Offices We Issue the Weather Warnings You Hear on Radio/TV

• 23 Employees • 17 are Meteorologists • 24 hours a day • 365 days a year

Tornado Warning

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 3 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 4

Members of the Integrated Warning Team Number of Tornadoes by State

Florida averages 59 tornadoes each year

Most are EF-0 or EF-1

Many are the width of a house, rarely over ¼ mile Emergency National America’s Weather Management Weather and Climate Industry wide and Public Service (e.g. Media, Private Companies, & App Officials that make Developers) landfall are tornadoes

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 5 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 6

1 5/4/2020

Tornadoes in 2020 2020 Florida Severe Weather (preliminary)

581 tornadoes so far, normal for year is 1,141 (1985-2014)

• 27 tornadoes • 7 large hail • 200 damaging wind

As of April 27

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 7 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 8

Squall Line & from February 6-7, 2020 Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020 Floral City in Citrus County

Citrus Emergency Management

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 9 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 10

Tornado Warning Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 11 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 12

2 5/4/2020

Pinellas County Power Outages Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020

• Most of damage limited to tree top level • Large branches and trees on homes

https://www.weather.gov/tbw/feb062020_tor

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 13 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 14

Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020 February 6 Tornado in Tampa Bay

Graphics like this one are available in real time at twitter.com/NWSTampaBay

#flwx

• Mobile homes and large trees do not mix https://www.weather.gov/tbw/feb062020_tor

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 15 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 16

Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020 Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020

Davis Island just south of downtown Tampa 3 empty containers at Port Tampa blown off stack

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 17 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 18

3 5/4/2020

MeteoTsunami February 6-7, 2020 When is a Severe Weather Warning Issued?

• Brief 1 to 4 feet surge as squall line moved through 1.Radar detects the severe weather • Occurred from north of Cedar Key through Naples

• Clearwater Beach recorded 3.68 feet AGL, 2.Trained SKYWARN Severe record is 4.00 ft on Weather Spotter reports severe 03/13/1993 weather

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 19 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 20

Important! Weather Alerts via Text Message or App

FEMA.gov/app Commercial Apps Weather Radio

Have multiple ways to receive a warning in case one way fails AlertFlorida.com

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 21 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 23

Interested in Doing More in Weather? Agenda for Basic SKYWARN Training

Get your Amateur Radio License Report rain to the Rain, Hail, and Snow Network Why we need Weather Spotters and how to report severe weather

How Thunderstorms Develop

Downbursts and Shelf Clouds

Supercell Thunderstorms

Florida Hurricanes

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 24 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 25

4 5/4/2020

The NWS Needs Your Reports to Help Warn the Public Three Ways to Report to NWS Ruskin

❑ Spotter Phone: 1-800-282-1228 ❑ www.SpotterNetwork.org Contact the NWS when you ❑ weather.gov/tampa observe: - Any size hail - Winds 50+ MPH - Tornadoes, waterspouts - 2” per hour rain or flooding This will be Emailed to you after you register as a Spotter. Link provided on last slide of this training.

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 26 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 27

SpotterNetwork.org is SKYWARN for Smart Phones Join Our Network Today!

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 28 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 29

Why the NWS Need SKYWARN Spotters RADAR is a Great Warning Tool, But it is Not Perfect

Your reports add credibility, increase public response, and improve warning accuracy The farther from the RADAR, the beam • height above ground increases • becomes wider

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 30 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 31

5 5/4/2020

This Happens to All RADARs We Missed This Cape Coral Tornado Tornado was 75 miles from radar, center of beam about 6,500 ft above ground and over a mile wide

Ruskin Ruskin RADAR RADAR

Center of Radar Beam: 10,000 ft 15,000 ft

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 32 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 33

Weather RADARs Have a “Cone of Silence”

Reporting Severe Weather and What to Report

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 34 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 35

Use the TEL Method to Report Information Report Tornadoes TEL Method = Time, Event, Location • Be sure the rotation is rapid and persistent in the feature you are looking at

• “Condensation funnel” in a tornado may not always be in contact with the ground, so look for debris

Great Report: • Include damage if you are I’m a SKYWARN Spotter, at 4:05 PM I drove through golf ball size hail on Interstate 75 at aware of any mile marker 298

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 36 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 37

6 5/4/2020

Give Your Location & Tornado Location Many Florida Tornadoes

I am in Arcadia at the intersection of Highways Tornado 31 & 70

Spotter I see a tornado to my northeast

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 38 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 39

Ambassador Program for a Weather Ready Nation Report Waterspouts

Anna Maria Island – March 27, 2019 From Wink TV – July 6, 2017

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 40 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 44

National Weather Service Report Winds > 45 MPH What’s the Deal With Waterspouts? Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL

Land Breeze • Wind flow Avoid words like “heavy” or “strong” to describe the wind U • Estimating wind takes experience, most people over- p estimate, including many meteorologists d r a f 30 - 40 mph Whole trees in motion t 40 - 50 mph Twigs or small branches breaking 50 - 60 mph Slight structural damage; Healthy branches breaking Down or snapped trees; The land breeze forms overnight and remains offshore. Storms developing on the land breeze stretch the 60 - 70 mph Converging winds along the land breeze lead to small scale vorticity vertically, causing it to contract and spin Structural damage areas of rotating winds called vorticity. faster. If fast enough, a can form.

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 46

7 5/4/2020

How Strong was the Wind? How Strong was the Wind?

Bradenton, FL on May 29, 2017

Wind combined with the weight of water in the Car ports can act like a 80 MPH rain can cause shingles to parachute to catch the fail at a lower wind speed 50 MPH wind

These shingles were rated to 120 mph

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 47 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 48

Reporting Tree Damage – What to Consider Report Flooding that Impacts Travel and/or Damage

• How widespread • How high is water on cars • Is it an isolated tree or limb blown • Is water getting into down? homes or businesses? • Trees can and do blow over in Tampa 07/24/2015 winds 40 to 50 mph

• Have many trees been blown down and/or numerous limbs snapped? • Winds > 60 mph

Sarasota – 08/27/2017

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 49 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 50

Report Hail Size and Hail Damage Estimating Hail Size

• Report largest hail stone observed • Measure diameter of longest Don’t report marble size hail because axis we don’t know how big your marbles • Compare size to common are objects • Any damage?

Best is to measure with a ruler

Second best is to compare to common objects like coins

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 52 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 53

8 5/4/2020

Report Lightning Number of Days with Thunderstorms

Lightning Capital of the World Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela

• Any injuries or deaths? • Did it cause a fire? • Did it cause a widespread power outage?

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 54 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 55

Florida Lightning Fatalities and Injuries Most at Risk from Lightning

Long term average is 9 fatalities and 40 injuries each year

• 2019: 3 dead, 19 injured • 2018: 7 dead, 19 injured • 2017: 5 dead, 22 injured • 2016: 9 dead, 18 injured

If you can hear thunder, lightning is close enough to strike you! Move immediately to shelter.

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 57 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 58

Weather Terms and Definitions Definition of a Severe Thunderstorm

50 Knot Wind 1 Inch Hail or larger Watch (e.g. Tornado, Hurricane, Flood, etc.) 58 MPH Wind or Stronger Size of a Quarter • The bad weather could happen but it is not certain

Warning (e.g. Tornado, Hurricane, etc.) • Bad weather has been detected by radar or has been reported • Find shelter if you are in the path of this storm

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 59 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 60

9 5/4/2020

How Do Thunderstorms Form? Unstable vs Stable Atmosphere Unstable Stable Moisture (invisible water vapor) - think of this as gasoline

Something to lift the moisture - think of this as a lit match Unstable Air - think of this as blowing oxygen on a fire to get it to burn hot

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 61 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 62

Sea Breeze Front Provides Lift Localized Sea Breeze Circulations

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 63 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 64

Sea Breeze and Storm Outflow Boundaries Three Stages of the Thunderstorm Life Cycle

Colliding thunderstorm outflows can provide additional lift for a new storm to develop 1. Towering Cumulus Stage 2. Mature Stage 3. Dissipation Stage

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 65 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 67

10 5/4/2020

Towering Cumulus Stage Mature Stage

Moisture will condense out of the cloud causing Rising currents of air are referred to as an updraft. rain and downdraft. The updraft and downdraft When combined with sufficient moisture, a Towering co-exist together. Cumulus develops

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 68 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 69

Dissipation Stage 3-D RADAR Image of the Towering Cumulus Stage

The downdraft will eventually overcome the updraft, causing the thunderstorm to weaken.

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 70 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 71

3-D RADAR Image of the Towering Cumulus Stage 3-D Radar Image of Mature Stage

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 72 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 73

11 5/4/2020

3-D Radar Image of Mature Stage 3-D Radar Image of Dissipation Stage

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 74 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 75

3-D Radar Image of Dissipation Stage 3-D Radar Image of Dissipation Stage

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 76 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 77

Fast Fact Non-Severe Thunderstorm Downdraft in Tampa

One inch of rain over one square mile • 17 million gallons of water • 145 million pounds This is a lot of weight being held aloft by the storm updraft

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 78 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 79

12 5/4/2020

The Microburst, a Small Scale Downburst The Shelf Cloud – You Will See These Every Summer

Rain Foot

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 80 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 81

The Shelf Cloud Shelf Cloud Marco Island on April 26, 2020

Copyright Chuck Palmer

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 82 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 83

Shelf Cloud East of Bradenton Small Shelf Cloud Over Lake Okeechobee

Donna Coan 8/19/2015

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 84 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 85

13 5/4/2020

Small Shelf Cloud East of Lakeland Shelf Cloud with Scud Clouds Moving into Gulf of Mexico

Photo: Lake Alfred Storm moving east to the Police Department 3/31/2011 west Low hanging clouds on Shelf Cloud are Scud Clouds Scud clouds get confused for funnel clouds Scud clouds do not rapidly rotate and are not funnel clouds

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 86 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 87

At 20+ Miles Away Look for an Overshooting Top At 5 to 20 Miles Away Look at Main Updraft Tower

- Look for crisp, hard outlines to clouds Persistent overshooting - Cauliflower appearance top Broad, thick, defined anvil - Soft & mushy means Crisp, hard outline to weak- updraftSoft and clouds mushy

Stronger updrafts have a better chance to cause severe weather

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 88 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 89

Remember How a Regular Thunderstorm Forms? Wind Shear Separates the Updraft and Downdraft

Moisture (invisible water vapor)

Something to lift the moisture

Unstable Air

What makes a Thunderstorm different than a regular storm?

The answer is Wind Shear 3,000 ft, 35 mph

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 90 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 91

14 5/4/2020

Weak Wind Shear vs Strong Wind Shear Most of our Strongest Tornadoes Occur in Cool Season

Weak Wind Shear Strong Wind Shear

1998 Kissimmee Tornado Outbreak • February 22-23 • 42 killed, deadliest in Florida history • 260 injured

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 92 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 93

January 17, 2016 Sarasota/Duette EF-2 Tornado EF-2 Tornado During 2019 Tropical Storm Nestor

Duette EF-2 (127 mph) Tornado 2 fatalities and 4 injuries

Lido Key and Sarasota Lakeland

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 94 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 95

EF-2 Tornado Near Lakeland During Tropical Storm Nestor Tornado Track The Villages/Lady Lake Tornado

Large rotating updrafts in Supercell Storms create a backward “J” on radar February 2, 2007 3:08-325 AM Path Length: 16.5 miles Path Width: ¼ mile Category: EF3 (160 mph)

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 96 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 97

15 5/4/2020

Tornado Track The Villages/Lady Lake Tornado Tornado Sheltering

100 MPH Tornado Stairs • February 2, 2007 What if no shelter is available? EF-3 160 MPH • Around 3 AM • 21 Fatalities, all in mobile homes & • Are you in a tornado watch? vehicles • Are storms heading toward your area? 135 MPH • 76 injuries • 387 homes destroyed Seek shelter before the storms arrive. Take and 1,269 homes your family to a family or friends house damaged until the storm has passed • $160 Million in losses

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 98 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 99

Want to Know More? Visit weather.gov/tampa/skywarn Florida Hurricanes

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 100 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 102

Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin

We are here

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 103 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 104

16 5/4/2020

2016-2018 Water Continues to Kill

When you close your eyes, what do you During the past three seasons, more than half the U.S. tropical 2016-18 U.S. Tropical see when you think of a hurricane? Water Related Fatalities cyclone water-related fatalities were vehicle related!

9 out of 10 U.S. tropical Other Vehicle Related cyclone fatalities are due to water

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 109

2017 Hurricane Irma Rain and Flooding Flooding from Heavy Rain is Dangerous 2016 Hurricane Matthew 2012 Tropical Storm Debby Pinellas County

J. Cavanaugh

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 111 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 112

2018 Major Hurricane Michael Who Evacuates

• CAT 5 with 160 mph wind • Surge, tide, and waves reached 19 feet at Mexico Beach • At least 59 people killed in the United States • 4th CAT 5 to hit the United States

Hurricane Sandy study by Jennifer Marlon, Yale University

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 113 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 114

17 5/4/2020

Storm Surge Mexico Beach, FL on 10/10/2017 Water is Heavy, Moving Water can be Deadly

3 ft 1 cubic yard of water weighs 1,700 pounds!

3 ft 3 ft Instagram.com/talarico.tessa

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 115 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 116

Every Red Dot on Map is a Home Washed Off Foundation On the Ground in Mexico Beach

USGS

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 117 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 118

Mexico Beach Storm Surge Debris Public Risk Perception is Based on Previous Experience

Chris Evans Citrus County Emergency Management

• “My house is elevated, I thought we would be just fine” • “It’s never flooded here before” • “They always turn” • “I didn’t know it would be this bad, I’ll never stay again” • “This wasn’t that bad, I’ll never leave again”

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 119 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 120

18 5/4/2020

Storm Surge Created a New Pass Hurricane Michael Wind and Waves

Mexico Beach Cape San Blas, FL NOAA detects navigation hazards following Hurricane Michael

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 121 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 122

Our Barrier Islands are no Different 2018 Hurricane Michael Wind Field

Fort Myers Beach

St Pete Beach CAT 3, 115+ MPH winds St Armands Circle went all the way into southwest Georgia

Cedar Key

Google Maps

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 123 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 124

2018 Hurricane Michael Wind 2018 Hurricane Michael Wind

Trees snapped in half in large The damage is not just from sections of forest wind, but is from the weight of the water in the wind moving at that wind speed

Sustained winds don’t cause as much damage as gusty wind which pounds on structures

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 125 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 126

19 5/4/2020

Hurricane Michael Power Outages Hurricane Michael Power Outages

2 Days After 14 Days After

290,000 in FL 32,000 in FL

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 127 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 128

Evacuations are Called for One of Two Reasons Evacuations can be a Problem

1. Live in the storm surge zone 2. Live in manufactured home Evacuate 10s of miles, not 100s of miles

Motorists trapped on I-26 as Houston as Hurricane Rita Hurricane Charley – 2004 Hurricane Charley – 2004 Hurricane Floyd approached approached in 2004 Motorists fleeing Pinellas County on the Punta Gorda area Charleston, SC in 1999 Howard Franklin Bridge

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 129 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 130

The Five Most Difficult Hurricane Evacuation Areas in U.S. 2017 Hurricane Irma Caused Largest Florida Evacuation According to Donald Lewis, VP of ATKINS at the 2012 National Hurricane Conference About 6 million Floridians evacuated 5. Southeast Florida 4. New York City / New Jersey Coast 3. Delmarva Peninsula (DE, MD, VA) 2. Tampa Bay Area, FL

1. Southwest Florida

Nexusnewsfeed.com

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 131 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 132

20 5/4/2020

What can you do?

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 133 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 134

Become an Ambassador! Examples of Ambassador Resources

Sign up for your group at weather.gov/wrn Some of the 203 Ambassadors in West Central Florida An Ambassador receives and Email about once a month with preparedness resources • Hillsborough ARES/RACES • TECO Energy • Fox 13 WTVT-TV Tampa Bay • Tampa International Airport • St Pete Astronomy Club • U.S. Central Command • Ellenton Premium Outlets • Frontier Communications • University of South Florida

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 135 5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 136

SKYWARN Severe Weather Spotter Training

Daniel Noah Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service – Tampa Bay Area [email protected]

5/4/2020 weather.gov/tampa 137

21