5/4/2020
SKYWARN Severe Weather Spotter Training We are a Federal Government Agency
Department of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Daniel Noah National Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service – Tampa Bay Area Weather [email protected] Service
Local Weather National Storm River Forecast Forecast Hurricane Prediction Center Office Center Center
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122 NWS Local Weather Forecast Offices We Issue the Weather Warnings You Hear on Radio/TV
• 23 Employees • 17 are Meteorologists • 24 hours a day • 365 days a year
Tornado Warning
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Members of the Integrated Warning Team Number of Tornadoes by State
Florida averages 59 tornadoes each year
Most are EF-0 or EF-1
Many are the width of a house, rarely over ¼ mile Emergency National America’s Weather Management Weather and Climate Industry wide and Public Service (e.g. Media, Private Companies, & App Officials Waterspouts that make Developers) landfall are tornadoes
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Tornadoes in 2020 2020 Florida Severe Weather (preliminary)
581 tornadoes so far, normal for year is 1,141 (1985-2014)
• 27 tornadoes • 7 large hail • 200 damaging wind
As of April 27
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Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020 Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020 Floral City in Citrus County
Citrus Emergency Management
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Tornado Warning Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020
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Pinellas County Power Outages Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020
• Most of damage limited to tree top level • Large branches and trees on homes
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/feb062020_tor
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Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020 February 6 Tornado in Tampa Bay
Graphics like this one are available in real time at twitter.com/NWSTampaBay
#flwx
• Mobile homes and large trees do not mix https://www.weather.gov/tbw/feb062020_tor
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Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020 Squall Line & Tornado from February 6-7, 2020
Davis Island just south of downtown Tampa 3 empty containers at Port Tampa blown off stack
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MeteoTsunami February 6-7, 2020 When is a Severe Weather Warning Issued?
• Brief 1 to 4 feet surge as squall line moved through 1.Radar detects the severe weather • Occurred from north of Cedar Key through Naples
• Clearwater Beach recorded 3.68 feet AGL, 2.Trained SKYWARN Severe record is 4.00 ft on Weather Spotter reports severe 03/13/1993 weather
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Important! Weather Alerts via Text Message or App
FEMA.gov/app Commercial Apps Weather Radio
Have multiple ways to receive a warning in case one way fails AlertFlorida.com
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Interested in Doing More in Weather? Agenda for Basic SKYWARN Training
Get your Amateur Radio License Report rain to the Rain, Hail, and Snow Network Why we need Weather Spotters and how to report severe weather
How Thunderstorms Develop
Downbursts and Shelf Clouds
Supercell Thunderstorms
Florida Hurricanes
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The NWS Needs Your Reports to Help Warn the Public Three Ways to Report to NWS Ruskin
❑ Spotter Phone: 1-800-282-1228 ❑ www.SpotterNetwork.org Contact the NWS when you ❑ weather.gov/tampa observe: - Any size hail - Winds 50+ MPH - Tornadoes, waterspouts - 2” per hour rain or flooding This will be Emailed to you after you register as a Spotter. Link provided on last slide of this training.
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SpotterNetwork.org is SKYWARN for Smart Phones Join Our Network Today!
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Why the NWS Need SKYWARN Spotters RADAR is a Great Warning Tool, But it is Not Perfect
Your reports add credibility, increase public response, and improve warning accuracy The farther from the RADAR, the beam • height above ground increases • becomes wider
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This Happens to All RADARs We Missed This Cape Coral Tornado Tornado was 75 miles from radar, center of beam about 6,500 ft above ground and over a mile wide
Ruskin Ruskin RADAR RADAR
Center of Radar Beam: 10,000 ft 15,000 ft
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Weather RADARs Have a “Cone of Silence”
Reporting Severe Weather and What to Report
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Use the TEL Method to Report Information Report Tornadoes TEL Method = Time, Event, Location • Be sure the rotation is rapid and persistent in the feature you are looking at
• “Condensation funnel” in a tornado may not always be in contact with the ground, so look for debris
Great Report: • Include damage if you are I’m a SKYWARN Spotter, at 4:05 PM I drove through golf ball size hail on Interstate 75 at aware of any mile marker 298
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Give Your Location & Tornado Location Many Florida Tornadoes
I am in Arcadia at the intersection of Highways Tornado 31 & 70
Spotter I see a tornado to my northeast
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Ambassador Program for a Weather Ready Nation Report Waterspouts
Anna Maria Island – March 27, 2019 From Wink TV – July 6, 2017
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National Weather Service Report Winds > 45 MPH What’s the Deal With Waterspouts? Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL
Land Breeze • Wind flow Avoid words like “heavy” or “strong” to describe the wind U • Estimating wind takes experience, most people over- p estimate, including many meteorologists d r a f 30 - 40 mph Whole trees in motion t 40 - 50 mph Twigs or small branches breaking 50 - 60 mph Slight structural damage; Healthy branches breaking Down or snapped trees; The land breeze forms overnight and remains offshore. Storms developing on the land breeze stretch the 60 - 70 mph Converging winds along the land breeze lead to small scale vorticity vertically, causing it to contract and spin Structural damage areas of rotating winds called vorticity. faster. If fast enough, a waterspout can form.
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How Strong was the Wind? How Strong was the Wind?
Bradenton, FL on May 29, 2017
Wind combined with the weight of water in the Car ports can act like a 80 MPH rain can cause shingles to parachute to catch the fail at a lower wind speed 50 MPH wind
These shingles were rated to 120 mph
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Reporting Tree Damage – What to Consider Report Flooding that Impacts Travel and/or Damage
• How widespread • How high is water on cars • Is it an isolated tree or limb blown • Is water getting into down? homes or businesses? • Trees can and do blow over in Tampa 07/24/2015 winds 40 to 50 mph
• Have many trees been blown down and/or numerous limbs snapped? • Winds > 60 mph
Sarasota – 08/27/2017
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Report Hail Size and Hail Damage Estimating Hail Size
• Report largest hail stone observed • Measure diameter of longest Don’t report marble size hail because axis we don’t know how big your marbles • Compare size to common are objects • Any damage?
Best is to measure with a ruler
Second best is to compare to common objects like coins
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Report Lightning Number of Days with Thunderstorms
Lightning Capital of the World Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela
• Any injuries or deaths? • Did it cause a fire? • Did it cause a widespread power outage?
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Florida Lightning Fatalities and Injuries Most at Risk from Lightning
Long term average is 9 fatalities and 40 injuries each year
• 2019: 3 dead, 19 injured • 2018: 7 dead, 19 injured • 2017: 5 dead, 22 injured • 2016: 9 dead, 18 injured
If you can hear thunder, lightning is close enough to strike you! Move immediately to shelter.
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Weather Terms and Definitions Definition of a Severe Thunderstorm
50 Knot Wind 1 Inch Hail or larger Watch (e.g. Tornado, Hurricane, Flood, etc.) 58 MPH Wind or Stronger Size of a Quarter • The bad weather could happen but it is not certain
Warning (e.g. Tornado, Hurricane, etc.) • Bad weather has been detected by radar or has been reported • Find shelter if you are in the path of this storm
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How Do Thunderstorms Form? Unstable vs Stable Atmosphere Unstable Stable Moisture (invisible water vapor) - think of this as gasoline
Something to lift the moisture - think of this as a lit match Unstable Air - think of this as blowing oxygen on a fire to get it to burn hot
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Sea Breeze Front Provides Lift Localized Sea Breeze Circulations
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Sea Breeze and Storm Outflow Boundaries Three Stages of the Thunderstorm Life Cycle
Colliding thunderstorm outflows can provide additional lift for a new storm to develop 1. Towering Cumulus Stage 2. Mature Stage 3. Dissipation Stage
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Towering Cumulus Stage Mature Stage
Moisture will condense out of the cloud causing Rising currents of air are referred to as an updraft. rain and downdraft. The updraft and downdraft When combined with sufficient moisture, a Towering co-exist together. Cumulus develops
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Dissipation Stage 3-D RADAR Image of the Towering Cumulus Stage
The downdraft will eventually overcome the updraft, causing the thunderstorm to weaken.
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3-D RADAR Image of the Towering Cumulus Stage 3-D Radar Image of Mature Stage
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3-D Radar Image of Mature Stage 3-D Radar Image of Dissipation Stage
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3-D Radar Image of Dissipation Stage 3-D Radar Image of Dissipation Stage
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Fast Fact Non-Severe Thunderstorm Downdraft in Tampa
One inch of rain over one square mile • 17 million gallons of water • 145 million pounds This is a lot of weight being held aloft by the storm updraft
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The Microburst, a Small Scale Downburst The Shelf Cloud – You Will See These Every Summer
Rain Foot
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The Shelf Cloud Shelf Cloud Marco Island on April 26, 2020
Copyright Chuck Palmer
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Shelf Cloud East of Bradenton Small Shelf Cloud Over Lake Okeechobee
Donna Coan 8/19/2015
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Small Shelf Cloud East of Lakeland Shelf Cloud with Scud Clouds Moving into Gulf of Mexico
Photo: Lake Alfred Storm moving east to the Police Department 3/31/2011 west Low hanging clouds on Shelf Cloud are Scud Clouds Scud clouds get confused for funnel clouds Scud clouds do not rapidly rotate and are not funnel clouds
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At 20+ Miles Away Look for an Overshooting Top At 5 to 20 Miles Away Look at Main Updraft Tower
- Look for crisp, hard outlines to clouds Persistent overshooting - Cauliflower appearance top Broad, thick, defined anvil - Soft & mushy means Crisp, hard outline to weak- updraftSoft and clouds mushy
Stronger updrafts have a better chance to cause severe weather
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Remember How a Regular Thunderstorm Forms? Wind Shear Separates the Updraft and Downdraft
Moisture (invisible water vapor)
Something to lift the moisture
Unstable Air
What makes a Supercell Thunderstorm different than a regular storm?
The answer is Wind Shear 3,000 ft, 35 mph
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Weak Wind Shear vs Strong Wind Shear Most of our Strongest Tornadoes Occur in Cool Season
Weak Wind Shear Strong Wind Shear
1998 Kissimmee Tornado Outbreak • February 22-23 • 42 killed, deadliest in Florida history • 260 injured
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January 17, 2016 Sarasota/Duette EF-2 Tornado EF-2 Tornado During 2019 Tropical Storm Nestor
Duette EF-2 (127 mph) Tornado 2 fatalities and 4 injuries
Lido Key and Sarasota Lakeland
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EF-2 Tornado Near Lakeland During Tropical Storm Nestor Tornado Track The Villages/Lady Lake Tornado
Large rotating updrafts in Supercell Storms create a backward “J” on radar February 2, 2007 3:08-325 AM Path Length: 16.5 miles Path Width: ¼ mile Category: EF3 (160 mph)
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Tornado Track The Villages/Lady Lake Tornado Tornado Sheltering
100 MPH Tornado Stairs • February 2, 2007 What if no shelter is available? EF-3 160 MPH • Around 3 AM • 21 Fatalities, all in mobile homes & • Are you in a tornado watch? vehicles • Are storms heading toward your area? 135 MPH • 76 injuries • 387 homes destroyed Seek shelter before the storms arrive. Take and 1,269 homes your family to a family or friends house damaged until the storm has passed • $160 Million in losses
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Want to Know More? Visit weather.gov/tampa/skywarn Florida Hurricanes
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Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin
We are here
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2016-2018 Water Continues to Kill
When you close your eyes, what do you During the past three seasons, more than half the U.S. tropical 2016-18 U.S. Tropical Cyclone see when you think of a hurricane? Water Related Fatalities cyclone water-related fatalities were vehicle related!
9 out of 10 U.S. tropical Other Vehicle Related cyclone fatalities are due to water
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2017 Hurricane Irma Rain and Flooding Flooding from Heavy Rain is Dangerous 2016 Hurricane Matthew 2012 Tropical Storm Debby North Carolina Pinellas County
J. Cavanaugh
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2018 Major Hurricane Michael Who Evacuates
• CAT 5 with 160 mph wind • Surge, tide, and waves reached 19 feet at Mexico Beach • At least 59 people killed in the United States • 4th CAT 5 to hit the United States
Hurricane Sandy study by Jennifer Marlon, Yale University
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Storm Surge Mexico Beach, FL on 10/10/2017 Water is Heavy, Moving Water can be Deadly
3 ft 1 cubic yard of water weighs 1,700 pounds!
3 ft 3 ft Instagram.com/talarico.tessa
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Every Red Dot on Map is a Home Washed Off Foundation On the Ground in Mexico Beach
USGS
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Mexico Beach Storm Surge Debris Public Risk Perception is Based on Previous Experience
Chris Evans Citrus County Emergency Management
• “My house is elevated, I thought we would be just fine” • “It’s never flooded here before” • “They always turn” • “I didn’t know it would be this bad, I’ll never stay again” • “This wasn’t that bad, I’ll never leave again”
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Storm Surge Created a New Pass Hurricane Michael Wind and Waves
Mexico Beach Cape San Blas, FL NOAA detects navigation hazards following Hurricane Michael
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Our Barrier Islands are no Different 2018 Hurricane Michael Wind Field
Fort Myers Beach
St Pete Beach CAT 3, 115+ MPH winds St Armands Circle went all the way into southwest Georgia
Cedar Key
Google Maps
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2018 Hurricane Michael Wind 2018 Hurricane Michael Wind
Trees snapped in half in large The damage is not just from sections of forest wind, but is from the weight of the water in the wind moving at that wind speed
Sustained winds don’t cause as much damage as gusty wind which pounds on structures
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Hurricane Michael Power Outages Hurricane Michael Power Outages
2 Days After 14 Days After
290,000 in FL 32,000 in FL
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Evacuations are Called for One of Two Reasons Evacuations can be a Problem
1. Live in the storm surge zone 2. Live in manufactured home Evacuate 10s of miles, not 100s of miles
Motorists trapped on I-26 as Houston as Hurricane Rita Hurricane Charley – 2004 Hurricane Charley – 2004 Hurricane Floyd approached approached in 2004 Motorists fleeing Pinellas County on the Punta Gorda area Charleston, SC in 1999 Howard Franklin Bridge
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The Five Most Difficult Hurricane Evacuation Areas in U.S. 2017 Hurricane Irma Caused Largest Florida Evacuation According to Donald Lewis, VP of ATKINS at the 2012 National Hurricane Conference About 6 million Floridians evacuated 5. Southeast Florida 4. New York City / New Jersey Coast 3. Delmarva Peninsula (DE, MD, VA) 2. Tampa Bay Area, FL
1. Southwest Florida
Nexusnewsfeed.com
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What can you do?
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Become an Ambassador! Examples of Ambassador Resources
Sign up for your group at weather.gov/wrn Some of the 203 Ambassadors in West Central Florida An Ambassador receives and Email about once a month with preparedness resources • Hillsborough ARES/RACES • TECO Energy • Fox 13 WTVT-TV Tampa Bay • Tampa International Airport • St Pete Astronomy Club • U.S. Central Command • Ellenton Premium Outlets • Frontier Communications • University of South Florida
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SKYWARN Severe Weather Spotter Training
Daniel Noah Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service – Tampa Bay Area [email protected]
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