Review of Emergency Response Provision:

Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

RERP - Cluster Risk Profile

Contents Introduction ...... 3 Description of Cluster ...... 4 Cluster Demographics and Population Risk Factors ...... 5 Deprivation ...... 8 Overall Cluster Risk...... 9 Dwellings ...... 9 Special Service (RTC) ...... 10 Geodemographic Segmentation ...... 11 Cluster Geodemographic Segmentation ...... 12 Building Usage as a Risk Identifier ...... 14 Other Building Risk...... 15 Sleeping Accommodation Risk ...... 15 Hospitals ...... 16 Care Homes ...... 17 HMOs ...... 18 Hotels ...... 19 Non Sleeping Accommodation Risk ...... 20 Factories or Warehouses ...... 21 Further Education Establishments ...... 22 Licensed Premises ...... 23 Offices ...... 24 Premises Open to the Public ...... 25 Other Sleeping Accommodation ...... 26 Other Workplaces ...... 27 Public Buildings...... 28 Schools ...... 29 Shops ...... 30 Specific Risks within the Cluster ...... 31 COMAH Sites ...... 32 Infrastructure Risk ...... 33 Roads ...... 34 Rail ...... 35 Aviation ...... 36 Ports ...... 37 Sites of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI) ...... 38 Flooding ...... 39 Existing KFRS Arrangements ...... 40 Future Development ...... 42 Population and Housing ...... 43 2

RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Major Developments ...... 44

Introduction In order to effectively assess the fire cover provision which is required to achieve the stated aims of the Authority an assessment of the risk factors for and Medway needs to be undertaken. This document forms part of a suite of Risk Profile documents which segment the county into 19 geographically identifiable areas thereby allowing for a simplification of the assessment of the county wide risk.

Kent and Medway Fire and Rescue Authority (KMFRA) divide the county into 19 clusters based on internal working arrangements and the day to day work activities of its personnel. These clusters have been in use since 2011 to analyse and report incident activity, creating a wealth of information which is used to gain a deep understanding of activity within each cluster. It therefore follows that these clusters be used as a backdrop to provide risk information, as this allows for a continuity of analysis across the RERP2 project. The map below illustrates these clusters.

Information regarding risk factors has been obtained from a number of sources in order to provide a detailed level of risk for individual cluster.

Much of the data within this document has been derived from information provided by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) a Government department charged with the collection and publication of statistics related to the economy, population and society. In March 2011 the ONS conducted the most recent census of the population. It is this information which is used extensively throughout this document as the most accurate societal data available. 3

RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Each Local Authority within Kent and Medway has produced a Local Development Plan. These documents detail the strategic developments which are planned for their area of responsibility, and as such are referenced to give an indication of the future risk within the cluster.

KMFRA has significant experience in planning for emergencies in sites of specific risk; as such numerous sites have been identified through previous internal work. These sites have been included within this document.

This document describes the risk factors found in the Canterbury cluster.

Description of Cluster The Canterbury cluster covers a geographical area of approximately 129 square miles and has a population of 91,081 people, a figure which represents 5.27% of Kent and Medway’s population.

A map showing the cluster can be seen below.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Cluster Demographics and Population Risk Factors This is the most current and widely available information with which to highlight the population risk factors is the 2011 census data. This data has been used to describe the community composition of each cluster.

The following charts and tables provide information regarding the population, age and gender of the community which live within the Canterbury Cluster.

The male to female ratio is comparable to the Kent and Medway average. However the Canterbury cluster has a significantly higher proportion of 15-24 years old when compared to the Kent and Medway average. This is due to the higher number of students who live within the cluster due to the amount of further educational establishments.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Household types Total %

One Person - Other 5,417 15.70

One Family - Married or Civil Partnership Couple - Dependent Children 4,689 13.59

One Person - Aged 65 and Over 4,472 12.96

One Family - Married or Civil Partnership Couple - No Children 4,257 12.34

One Family - All Aged 65 and Over 2,822 8.18

Other - All Full-Time Students 2,130 6.17

One Family - Lone Parent - Dependent Children 2,109 6.11

Other - Other 1,909 5.53

One Family - Cohabiting Couple - No Children 1,800 5.22

One Family - Married or Civil Partnership Couple - All Children Non-Dependent 1,561 4.52

One Family - Cohabiting Couple - Dependent Children 1,299 3.76

One Family - Lone Parent - All Children Non-Dependent 1,006 2.92

Other - With Dependent Children 790 2.29

One Family - Cohabiting Couple - All Children Non-Dependent 137 0.40

Other - All Aged 65 and Over 107 0.31

Total households 34,505

Notes for Household types:

 One family households are categorised by the presence of children into, those with dependent children, those with non-dependent children only, and those with no children. Other households are categorised by the presence or absence of dependent children.  Married includes those in a civil partnership.  Households with dependent children include natural, adopted and step-children aged 0 to15 and those aged 16 to 18 in full-time education or training for work and living at home with parent(s) or grandparent(s) (excluding those who have a spouse, partner or child(ren) living in the household). Non-dependent children are all those living in a household with parent(s) or grandparent(s) who are not classified as dependent children.  Other households include: households of more than one family; households comprised of unrelated adults sharing; those including one family and other unrelated adults; all full-time student households; and households in which all occupants are aged 65 and over.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

In March 2011 there were 8,887 households with dependent children in the area.

This represents 25.8% of households in the area. In addition 9,889 of households were comprised of a single person.

This again reflects the increased student population within the cluster, “Other - All Full-Time Students” representing 6.17% versus the average for Kent and Medway of 0.42%.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Deprivation The indices of deprivation are used to classify households based on four selected household characteristics:

 Employment  Education  Health and disability  Housing

The map below shows the deprivation levels for the Canterbury cluster by output area when compared to the rest of Kent. Using the indices of deprivation as an indicator, the darker areas represent progressively more deprived localities.

There is a well-established correlation between dwelling fires and the measures of individual household characteristics detailed above.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Overall Cluster Risk Each Fire and Rescue Service has been provided with a tool with which to analyse risk within their area of responsibility. This tool is called the Fire Service Emergency Cover Toolkit, commonly referred to as FSEC.

FSEC can create a number of models relating to risk within the Kent and Medway area. The dwellings and special service models are detailed below as they provided the best representation of the work conducted by KMFRA and consist of incidents which present the highest level of risk to the community, namely Fires and Road Traffic Collisions.

Dwellings The dwellings model shown below shows the risks associated with the number of predicted fatalities within a localised area. This risk is derived from a number of factors including, but not limited to, demographic factors, historic incidents within the local area, the response provided by KMFRA into the area, and underlying risk derived from nationally recognised risk factors such as the number of pensioners or the amount of rented accommodation within the area.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Special Service (RTC) The special service model shown below shows the RTC risks associated with the number of predicted fatalities within a localised area. This risk is derived from the amount of RTC incidents within a predefined area of the road network and other geographical features where rescues may be necessary.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Geodemographic Segmentation Geodemographic segmentation refers to a range of methods which can be used to classify and characterise neighbourhoods or localities based on the principal that people who live near each other are likely to have similar demographic, socio-economic and lifestyle characteristics. This information allows KFRS to understand the demographics, lifestyles, preferences and behaviours of the people of Kent and Medway and thereby specifically target those who need us most.

KFRS uses a product called Mosaic Public Sector (Mosaic) as a source of this information. Mosaic categorises each property into fifteen top level categories each of which is further subdivided into further groupings, however these groups provide a level of detail which is not required for this document.

Each top level category is named and described in the table below.

Category Description Well-off owners in rural locations enjoying the benefits of Country Living country life Established families in large detached homes living Prestige Positions upmarket lifestyles High status city dwellers living in central locations and City Prosperity pursuing careers with high rewards Thriving families who are busy bringing up children and Domestic Success following careers Mature suburban owners living settled lives in mid-range Suburban Stability housing Elderly people with assets who are enjoying a comfortable Senior Security retirement Householders living in inexpensive homes in village Rural Reality communities Younger households settling down in housing priced within Aspiring Homemakers their means Residents of settled urban communities with a strong Urban Cohesion sense of identity Educated young people privately renting in urban Rental Hubs neighbourhoods Mature homeowners of value homes enjoying stable Modest Traditions lifestyles Single people privately renting low cost homes for the short Transient Renters term Families with limited resources who have to budget to Family Basics make ends meet Elderly people reliant on support to meet financial or Vintage Value practical needs Urban renters of social housing facing an array of Municipal Challenge challenges

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Cluster Geodemographic Segmentation The composition of the Canterbury cluster can be viewed in the chart below along with the average composition for Kent and Medway.

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Cluster Kent and Medway

The composition of the Canterbury cluster has a disproportionate amount of Rental Hubs category when compared to the average for Kent and Medway, this complements the analysis of age and housing type found within the “Cluster Demographics and Population Risk Factors” section of this document. The cluster also has a higher amount of County Living ad Rural Reality categories when compared to the average for the whole of Kent and Medway.

The map below shows the most prominent category which makes up a localised area of the cluster.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Building Usage as a Risk Identifier There is a well-established process embedded within Fire and Rescue Services nationally to recognise an identified building usage type as an indicator of the risk posed by that building. As such research has been undertaken to gain as much information on building usage within Kent and Medway, and wherever possible a quality assurance process has been undertaken to verify this data. The first stage of acquiring this data was through the use of an Ordnance Survey Product called AddressBase Premium which is provided to KFRS under a public license agreement. It provides a geographic dataset of addresses, properties and land areas where services are provided. By comparing known property types gained through fire safety inspections and operational intelligence with the information contained within AddressBase it has been found to be a suitable dataset to use when analysing risk data.

However, part of the established practice of using an identified building usage type as an indicator of the risk involves Fire and Rescue Services recognising that approximately 80% of the total risk from fire fatalities involves buildings where people sleep. This 80% of total risk can be attributed to specific categories of building usage:

 Hospitals  Care Homes  Houses of Multiple Occupancy (HMOs)  Hotels  Hostels

For this reason additional research and cross-matching has been undertaken on specific building usage types to ensure a robust dataset. This research has involved building on the work undertaken in a previous Review of Emergency Response Provision Project and combining it with current information.

As an example of this work AddressBase lists 324 HMOs within Kent and Medway. Operational intelligence and fire safety records strongly indicate that there are significantly more HMOs within Kent and Medway than are recorded within AddressBase. The reason behind this may lie in the licensing scheme for HMOs which is conducted on a purely voluntary basis. It is suspected that only the licensed HMOs are recorded within AddressBase thereby giving a false impression of the number of this type of building Kent and Medway.

Additional internal data has therefore been used to supplement the dataset for HMOs to provide a more accurate assessment of risk for Kent and Medway and the individual clusters.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Other Building Risk It is well established that the use of a building has a large impact on the amount of risk that building poses to a community. This section details the usage of buildings other than dwellings.

Sleeping Accommodation Risk Those buildings which provide sleeping accommodation account for approximately 80% of total other building risk due to them having people sleeping in them overnight. These buildings are:

 Hospitals  Care Homes  Houses of Multiple Occupancy (HMOs)  Hotels  Hostels

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Hospitals A hospital is defined as an institution providing medical and surgical treatment and nursing care for sick or injured people.

The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the hospital category within the Canterbury cluster.

 Chaucer Hospital, Canterbury  Kent & Canterbury Hospital, Canterbury  St Martins Hospital, Canterbury

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Care Homes A care home is defined as a residential setting where a number of usually older people live, primarily in single rooms, and have access to on-site care services.

The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the care home category within the Canterbury cluster.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

HMOs A House of Multiple Occupation (HMO) is defined as a property that is shared by three or more tenants who are not members of the same family.

The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the HMO category within the Canterbury cluster.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Hotels A Hotel is defined as an establishment providing accommodation, meals, and other services for travellers and tourists, by the night.

The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the hotel category within the Canterbury cluster.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Non Sleeping Accommodation Risk Those buildings which do not provide sleeping accommodation account for approximately 20% of total other building risk. These are:

 Factories or Warehouses  Further Education Establishments  Licensed Premises  Offices  Premises Open to the Public  Other Sleeping Accommodation  Other Workplaces  Public Buildings  Schools  Shops

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Factories or Warehouses The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the factories and warehouse category within the Canterbury cluster. Examples of this category include; factories warehouses, mills and brickworks.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Further Education Establishments The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the further education establishment category within the Canterbury cluster. Examples of this category include; colleges, universities and other such training establishments.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Licensed Premises The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the licensed premises category within the Canterbury cluster. Examples of this category include; public houses, social clubs and bingo halls.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Offices The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the office category within the Canterbury cluster.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Premises Open to the Public The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the premises open to the public category within the Canterbury cluster. Examples of this category include; leisure centres, theatres and crematoriums.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Other Sleeping Accommodation The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the other sleeping accommodation category within the Canterbury cluster. Examples of this category include; police, fire and ambulance stations, and prisons.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Other Workplaces The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the other workplaces category within the Canterbury cluster. Examples of this category include; vehicle repair workshops, quarries and storage depots.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Public Buildings The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the public buildings category within the Canterbury cluster. Examples of this category include; libraries, museums and community centres.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Schools The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the school category within the Canterbury cluster. Examples of this category include primary and secondary schools and day nurseries.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Shops The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the shop category within the Canterbury cluster. Examples of this category include; food courts, general retail and superstores.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Specific Risks within the Cluster KFRS has a process which identifies sites which pose a specific risk to the community should an incident occur at these locations. These sites are subjected to specific planning and training regimes in order to ensure KMFRA has the ability to respond correctly and effectively to the risks associated with these sites.

The Canterbury cluster has 12 such sites, including Canterbury Cathedral which is classified as the only “Very High” risk within Kent and Medway.

Site Type Risk Arjo Wiggings, Manufacturing Medium Chilham Castle Historical Medium Canterbury Cathedral Historical Very High Debenhams Shopping Centre Medium Ingram Building, University of Kent Education Medium Junior King’s School Education Medium Kent and Canterbury Hospital Hospital Medium Kings School Canterbury Education High Marlowe Theatre Event Centre High St Edmund’s School Education Medium St Martin's Hospital Hospital Medium United Agri Products Manufacturing High

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

COMAH Sites The Control of Major Accident Hazards Regulations 1999 (COMAH) and their amendments 2005, are the enforcing regulations within the which are applicable to any site which stores or handles large quantities of industrial chemicals of a hazardous nature. The regulations operate on two levels which depend on the sites status, either Top Tier or Lower Tier sites.

The Canterbury Cluster has no COMAH sites within its boundary.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Infrastructure Risk The risk posed by the clusters infrastructure can be broken down into four main areas:

 Roads  Rail  Aviation  Ports

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Roads The Canterbury Cluster contains a number of the County’s Major roads including A2, A28 and A257.

There are 457 miles of carriageway within the cluster. The Canterbury cluster no motorway within its boundary.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Rail A number of rail lines pass through the Canterbury cluster.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Aviation There are no commercial airports within the Canterbury cluster.

The greatest risk is posed by Kent and Medway’s proximity to London airports including Heathrow and Gatwick and the fact that Kent and Medway sits below the flight path for many International flights.

Kent and Medway have a long established aviation tradition and there are many small airfields for light aircraft throughout the county.

The map below shows the major airports in the South East of namely:

 London Heathrow Airport  Gatwick Airport  London Biggin Hill Airport  London City Airport  Lydd Airport  Rochester Airport

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Ports Kent and Medway have a significant amount of coastline and as such numerous small ports and harbours. Most villages and towns along the coast contain a mooring location which coupled with the various inland marinas along the rivers of the county present a level of risk to the community.

The map below shows the major ports, harbours and docks within the Kent and Medway namely:

 Folkestone  Dover  Sheerness  Thamesport  Chatham  Ridham  Ramsgate   Dartford  Grain LNG  The Medway Ports

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Sites of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI) Sites of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI) are sites which support plants, animals, protected species or natural habitats that find it difficult to survive in the wider countryside. These unique and varied habitats have developed over hundreds of years through management practices such as grazing and forestry, and require active management to maintain their conservation status.

The Canterbury cluster contains SSSIs as shown in the map above.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Flooding In recent years the risk of flooding has greatly increased. Below is a map showing the areas of potential flooding within Kent and Medway. It shows the chance of flooding from rivers and the sea presented in categories which take into account flood defences and their current condition.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Existing KFRS Arrangements The Canterbury Cluster contains four fire stations, Canterbury, Chilham, Aylesham and Wingham. Each station has a set number of resources which are based at the station, these resources can be crewed through differing crewing systems and provide differing capabilities as detailed in the table below.

Station ID Station Name Crewing Appliances HRP 80 Canterbury W RP 12 Chilham OC P 81 Aylesham OC P 83 Wingham OC P

OC = On-call

This crewing model uses firefighters who are called into the station when required from a remote location. These appliances are available either during the day, during the night or both as required by the Authority.

D = Day Crewed

This crewing model uses firefighters who are available at station during the day and on call at night. N.B. There are no Day Crewed stations within the Canterbury Cluster.

W = Whole time shift

This crewing model uses firefighters who are continuously available for deployment 24 hours a day and are based at station.

P = Pump

These appliances make up the majority of the fleet and provide the backbone of our response. They carry no specialist rescue equipment.

RP = Rescue Pump

These appliances are located at stations where it has been deemed that a requirement for specialist rescue equipment exists. They carry some specialist rescue equipment and can respond to most Road Traffic Collisions.

HRP = Heavy Rescue Pump

These appliances are located at strategic stations and carry specialist rescue equipment. They are able to provide a respond to all incident types.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

The map below illustrates the area appliances can respond to from their base locations within 10 minutes. This includes the time period taken for the crews to respond into the station from another location, get ready and leave the station. This time period is known as turnout time.

The turnout time has been standardised as one minute for crews that are already on station and five minutes for crews responding for home or other locations.

Effectively, the turnout time reduces the distance an appliance can respond to within 10 minutes.

A number of specialist appliances are also based in the Canterbury cluster these include:

 A Turntable Ladder (TL) which allows for access to buildings above 4 floors.  An Incident Support Unit (ISU) which provides specific support to incidents such as specialist decontamination or breathing apparatus set servicing.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Future Development The Canterbury cluster encompasses, either in whole or in part, the boundaries of five Local Borough Councils including Canterbury and Dover. Areas of the cluster are also served by Swale, Ashford and Shepway Councils; however no major developments are planned for these areas.

Each local council is required to produce a Core Strategy Document under the National Planning Policy Framework which has been referenced to assess the projected development and associated future risk within the cluster.

The Canterbury District Local Plan identifies a strategic requirement of 16,000 housing units by 2031.

The Dover Core Strategy Document identifies a need for 10,100 houses by the end of 2026. As such land has been identified for up to 14,000 houses to ensure longer term planning assumptions.

Additional local housing development has also been identified in the Preston area near Wingham involving up to 73 properties.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Population and Housing As with National trend predictions the population of the Canterbury cluster is set to increase over the next ten years, necessitating an increase in available housing stock. The Canterbury District Local Plan identifies a number of strategic housing allocations:

Canterbury Sites:

Land at South Canterbury

 Ridlands Farm/Hospital Site  Howe Barracks

Herne Bay Sites:

 Strode Farm  Land at Greenhill  Land at Golf Club  Land at Hillborough

Whitstable Sites:

 North of Thanet Way

Rural Sites:

 Land at /Broad Oak  Land North of

A number of road infrastructure improvements are also identified within the Canterbury District Local Plan:

 Sturry Relief Road  Traffic Management System  Bridge Interchange  Herne Relief Road

Within the Dover Core strategy document and for housing provision has been identified in the following locations:

 Dover: 9,700 homes  Deal: 1,600 homes  Sandwich: 500 homes  Aylesham: 1,000 homes  Rural: 1,200 homes 43

RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

Major Developments The Park Development will be situated off Cockering Road, Thanington. The details below were sourced from www.thaningtonpark.co.uk .

The scheme will provide:

 Up to 750 new residential dwellings  A business park  A new primary school  Sports pitches and community facilities  Purpose-built hospice for Pilgrims Hospices with up to 30 beds  A 60 bed Nursing home

The transport benefits of the revised proposal have therefore changed a little from the original scheme, in order to meet the proposals contained in the draft Local Plan, and are now as follows:

 Funding the new A2 offslip from the eastbound carriageway of the A2 in Wincheap and provide relief to strategic parts of the road network on this side of the City  Provision of an improved and upgraded London-bound A2 off slip  Contribute to expanding the Wincheap Park and Ride  Upgrade to local bus services  Upgrade to local walking and cycling networks  Employment, social and community facilities provided on-site to help to reduce the need to travel  New traffic signal junction from St.Nicholas Road onto the A28 to improve safety and operation  Creates the potential to unlock future regeneration of Wincheap by completing the missing elements of the network.

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RERP - Canterbury Cluster Risk Profile

The proposed site off Cockering Road is outlined in yellow in the image below.

The Site – Proposed layout

Both images and information were taken from the Thanington Park website.

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