25 CTBTO SPECTRUM MAGAZINE ISSUE 25 JULY 2020
TOWARDS THE 10TH NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE COVER IMAGE:
Painting by Jana Swanepoel (age 16) from Namibia. Jana’s art was selected as one of the top twelve entries submitted to the 2018-2019 Global Scholar Art Campaign organised jointly by the CTBTO and Peace and Cooperation (Paz y Cooperación).
(The original painting was gifted to CTBTO Executive Secretary Lassina Zerbo by the artist and decorates his office in Vienna.)
Further information about the art campaign available on page 32.
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) bans all nuclear explosions.
It opened for signature on 24 September 1996 in New York.
As of June 2020, 184 STATES HAVE The PREPARATORY COMMISSION FOR The regime must be operational when the SIGNED THE TREATY AND 168 HAVE THE COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR- Treaty enters into force. It will consist of 337 RATIFIED it. Of the 44 nuclear capable States TEST-BAN TREATY ORGANIZATION MONITORING FACILITIES supported by an which must ratify the CTBT for it to enter into (CTBTO) consists of the States Signatories and International Data Centre and on-site inspection force, the so-called Annex 2 countries, 36 have the Provisional Technical Secretariat. The main measures. As of June 2020, 300 facilities of the done so while eight have yet to ratify: China, tasks of the CTBTO are to promote signatures International Monitoring System (IMS) the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, and ratifications and to establish a global are certified. Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, Pakistan and the verification regime capable of detecting nuclear United States. explosions underground, underwater and in the atmosphere. TABLE OF CONTENTS
2 EDITORIAL CTBTO Executive Secretary Lassina Zerbo
4 CONTRIBUTORS to this issue
6 TREATY STATUS CTBT signatures and ratifications
7 STATUS OF CERTIFIED IMS FACILITIES Certified International Monitoring System facilities
THE 10TH NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE AND THE CTBT
8 NPT AND CTBT: A KEY RELATIONSHIP IN TOUGH TIMES by CTBTO Editorial Team
10 THE CTBT: REBUILDING TRUST IN THE MULTILATERAL NUCLEAR REGIME by CTBTO Editorial Team
16 GEM DECLARATION GEM Declaration June 2019
18 THE CTBT AND THE 2020 NPT REVIEW CYCLE: CHALLENGES, RISKS, AND OPPORTUNITIES by Sarah Bidgood
20 TOWARDS A REAL INTER-GENERATIONAL DIALOGUE: THE CTBTO’S EXPERIENCE by CTBTO Editorial Team
VOICES FROM THE FIELD
24 75 YEARS AFTER TRINITY: A LEGACY OF HARM AND HOPE by CTBTO Editorial Team
28 LIVING WITH THE NUCLEAR TESTS: THE SEMIPALATINSK STORY by Togzhan Kassenova
30 GIVING A SECOND LIFE TO SENEGAL’S AUXILIARY SEISMIC STATION by Mapathé Ndiaye
32 GLOBAL SCHOLAR ART CAMPAIGN organised by CTBTO and Paz y Cooperación globe, the CTBTO’s core operations its verification network and strengthen have been maintained without inter- other important infrastructure. In ruption. The data has kept flowing and December 2019 we reached the mile- the analysis has continued unabated, stone of 300 certified IMS facilities, keeping our promise to ensure no with the addition of infrasound station nuclear explosion can go undetected. IS01 in Argentina and radionuclide laboratory RL14 in South Africa. We will emerge from this pandemic Just over a year ago we inaugurated into a changed world. We do not yet our brand-new Technology Support know exactly what form it will take, and Training (TeST) Centre in Seib- nor whether the crucial need for ersdorf, Lower Austria, a hub for preparedness, international collabora- storage, maintenance and testing tion and science-driven policies that along with top-level training facilities. COVID-19 has so clearly demonstrated The TeST Centre contributes to all will regalvanise shared approaches elements of the verification system of to other urgent global challenges. the CTBT: the IMS, the International Data Centre (IDC) and the On-Site Few of those challenges are Inspection (OSI) capability. We more pressing than nuclear non- also opened our fully refurbished, proliferation and arms control, which state-of-the-art Operations Centre in recent years has seen a clear and at our Vienna headquarters. dangerous erosion of treaty-based norms. Tensions are high and trust is The 2019 Science and Technology low as we mark the 50th anniversary of (SnT) Conference was our largest SnT Editorial the landmark Treaty on the Non-Prolif- conference yet, with 1200 participants eration of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and convening to support the exchange LASSINA ZERBO approach its 10th Review Conference. of knowledge and strengthen the CTBTO Executive Secretary This special issue of CTBTO Spectrum engagement of the scientific commu- throws a spotlight on issues vital to the nities working in test-ban monitoring. 10th Review Conference – postponed And in the spirit of my personal because of the pandemic and now due commitment to the International to take place by April 2021 – and the Gender Champions campaign to break It’s been a while since we brought essential place of the Comprehensive down gender barriers, I’m heartened you CTBTO Spectrum, and much Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) to report that the CTBTO’s Provisional has happened in the meantime. within the nuclear non-proliferation Technical Secretariat has reached and disarmament framework. gender parity at the directors’ level. The COVID-19 pandemic has thrust the world into an unprecedented crisis STRENGTHENING AND BOLSTERING THE SCIENCE- – one that underscores more than PERFORMING DIPLOMACY NEXUS ever the vital need to tackle global Since our last edition of CTBTO Given the importance of the 10th threats with a unified, multilateral Spectrum in September 2015, four NPT Review Conference and the approach, infused by solid science. more states – Myanmar, Eswatini, delicate state of the regime, for For several weeks the vast majority of Thailand and Zimbabwe – have ratified this issue of CTBTO Spectrum we CTBTO colleagues worked remotely, the CTBT, and Tuvalu has signed. The have interviewed a broad range of after our headquarters closed to total of States Signatories now stands experts – including several members all but a skeleton presence in line at 184, reinforcing the CTBT’s continued of our Group of Eminent Persons with our Host Country’s measures status as one of the world’s most widely (GEM) – for their reflections on to slow the spread of the virus. supported arms control treaties. the enduring role of the CTBT and In the same period, North Korea its potential to rebuild trust in an Yet I’m proud to say that thanks to the has conducted three more nuclear atmosphere of international tension. tenacity and dedication of both our tests, bringing its total to six. The A core theme that emerges is growing own staff in Vienna and the network IMS detected all of them, with the mistrust between states, and the of member-state colleagues who most recent, on 3 September 2017, erosion of the classic arms control maintain International Monitoring picked up by over 134 IMS stations. architecture rooted in negotiated trea- System (IMS) facilities across the The CTBTO has continued to build up ties and agreements.
2 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 Ahead of the Review Conference, we THE CTBT AS BRIDGE-BUILDER It is my goal to ensure that our great must remind ourselves that these The CTBT itself is one of the greatest scientific endeavour of the CTBT is carefully crafted treaties are not examples of science diplomacy. A secured for all time. Eight countries just pieces of paper. These negoti- Group of Scientific Experts brought need to complete their ratification ated compromises, and the robust together scientists from different procedures before we can say the verification regimes that have been countries to conduct joint research CTBT and its monitoring system are built around them, foster confidence into possible monitoring technologies secure. The situation in the Korean and trust in the international and data analysis methods for the Peninsula offers a potential path to system of states, which ultimately verification of a test ban. It was the help make this a reality. The CTBTO provides long-term security to all. work of these scientists that made stands ready to make its assets and the negotiation of the CTBT possible, expertise available to contribute To address these global chal- by proving that a comprehensive, to denuclearization efforts, should lenges effectively, we urgently zero-yield nuclear test ban could be States Signatories call upon us need to strengthen the nexus verified.It is scientists and technicians to do so. There are a number of between science and diplomacy. who have established the world’s ways we could contribute. Our real The importance of science and scien- only global monitoring system for value-added would be in test-site tific knowledge in informing diplomatic nuclear tests. The IMS is an impres- closure activities; in helping to discussions, and providing apolitical sive feat of science and diplomacy: verify a nuclear test moratorium; facts for decision-making and a technological network located and in securing signature and negotiations, cannot be overstated. I worldwide that can catch signs of eventual ratification of the CTBT firmly believe that science diplomacy nuclear explosions, while also yielding by North Korea as a confidence can foster trust between nations at a range of civil and scientific benefits. and trust-building measure. these times of heightened tension. Finding common ground is difficult, There is every reason for science The CTBT is and can continue to particularly if national positions to continue helping to maintain be a common denominator among harden against a background of crucial channels of communication states, especially when other agree- strategic competition. Science can in the face of global geo-political ments are eroding, expiring or even be an avenue to open up cooperation, tensions. Today’s challenges to the losing relevance. The value and the reach beyond political differences and non-proliferation regime and the contributions to international security help to build trust and understanding. global security environment require that the CTBT and its verification It can serve as an efficient tool for continued dialogue, increased coop- regime provide are irrefutable. It is dialogue in times of relative distance eration and a genuine restoration of our collective duty to reaffirm our or disagreement, and offer platforms trust. I strongly believe that science global commitment to the norm for new forms of interaction and and verification regimes can serve to of non-testing and the technical resolution on topics that are politi- reassure states about the implementa- treasure that is the CTBT verification cally sensitive. Even at the height of tion of commitments vis-a-vis nuclear regime, in order to shore up this the Cold War, adversaries were non-proliferation and disarmament. key element of the international able to maintain scientific links and security framework. When other even active scientific cooperation. I’m encouraged by evolving initiatives elements of this regime are weak- on dialogue between nuclear weapons ened, the CTBT and its verification Science can unite countries to address states and non-nuclear weapons states regime need to be reaffirmed and cross-border challenges such as on disarmament verification and non- strengthened, for our own security pandemics, climate change, energy proliferation. Frank and constructive and the security of our children. supply and poverty eradication, which exchanges should be encouraged and are simply out of reach for any single continued in order to maintain chan- The tragedy of COVID-19 has thrown nation to address independently. The nels of communication that can foster a stark light on the need for coopera- 2015 Sustainable Development Goals relationships of respect, empathy tion and preparedness. But to prepare (SDGs) provide a solid endorsement and trust. And I profoundly hope that for nuclear weapons to be used is too of global scientific cooperation on when the States Parties are finally late. The only option is prevention. issues that are vital for all human able to gather for the NPT Review beings, irrespective of region, Conference, they will re-commit to culture or identity. In many areas, multilateral, cooperative measures. no solutions are possible without the contribution of scientists. The COVID-19 pandemic is proof of this.
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 3 Contributors
GRIGORY BERDENNIKOV SÉRGIO DUARTE Grigory Berdennikov served Sérgio de Queiroz Duarte was as Deputy Minister of Foreign the UN High Representative for Affairs of the Russian Federation Disarmament Affairs from 2007 from 1992-1993 and from 1999- to 2012. In 2005, Duarte presided 2001. He was the Permanent over the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Representative of the Russian Treaty Review Conference. From Federation to the Conference on Disarmament in 2003 to 2004, he served as Brazil's Roving Ambassador Geneva from 1993-1998 and headed the Russian for Disarmament Affairs. Prior to this, from 1999 to delegation at the negotiations on the CTBT. 2002, he was the Permanent Representative of Brazil Berdennikov has served in a number of high-level to the UN at Vienna and Chairman of the International posts in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors as well as as director of the Department for Security and the Representative of Brazil to the CTBTO. Duarte also Disarmament Affairs and member of the MFA Board served as Ambassador to Nicaragua, Canada and China. (1998-1999), Permanent Representative of the Earlier in his career, he was a member of the Brazilian Russian Federation to the International Organizations delegations in different UN disarmament fora. Duarte in Vienna (2001-2007), and as Ambassador at large is currently President of the Pugwash Conferences on (2007-2015). From 2001–2015 Berdennikov was the Science and World Affairs. Governor for the Russian Federation on the IAEA Board of Governors.
HELLMUT LAGOS Hellmut Lagos is a career diplomat ANGELA KANE from Chile since 1995. He has been Angela Kane, an expert in political Deputy Permanent Representative relations and negotiations, peace to the International Organizations operations and disarmament, is in Vienna and Alternate a Senior Fellow at the Vienna Representative to the Conference Center for Disarmament and Non- on Disarmament in Geneva. He has actively Proliferation, and Vice President participated in Multilateral Disarmament since 2006. of the International Institute for Peace in Vienna. His main areas of expertise are Nuclear Disarmament She is a Visiting Professor at the Paris School of and Arms Control in Outer Space. International Affairs/SciencesPo, and teaches at (Editorial note: The reflections provided by Mr Lagos in Spectrum Tsinghua University/Schwarzman Scholars in Beijing. represent the author’s personal opinions and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Chile.) She chairs the United Nations University Council in Tokyo. She is a member of the CTBTO Group of Eminent Persons and of the Group of Eminent Persons for Substantive Advancement for Nuclear Disarmament (Japan). She is also Co-Chairman of the World Economic Forum Regional Council on the Korean Peninsula, and serves on NGO Boards in Europe, United States, and Asia. Until mid-2015, Ms. Kane served as the United Nations High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, capping a long career at the highest levels of the Organization.
4 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 PATRICIA LEWIS BRUNO TERTRAIS Patricia M. Lewis is the Research Deputy director of the Fondation Director, International Security pour la recherche stratégique at Chatham House in London. (FRS), Bruno Tertrais is an Her former posts include: Deputy expert in international relations, Director and Scientist-in-Residence geopolitics, crisis and conflict at the Center for Nonproliferation issues, transatlantic relations, Studies at the Monterey Institute; Director of the security in the Middle East and in Asia and nuclear United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research issues. Between 1990 and 1993, he was Director of the (UNIDIR); and Director of VERTIC. Lewis served Committee on the Civil Dimension of Security of the on the 2004-6 WMD Commission, chaired by Dr NATO Parliamentary Assembly; from 1993 till 2001, he Hans Blix, the 2010-2011 Advisory Panel on Future was Special Adviser to the Director for Strategic Affairs Priorities of the OPCW, chaired by Ambassador at the Ministry of Defense and visiting fellow at the Rolf Ekeus, and was an Advisor to the 2008-10 Rand Corporation (1995-1996). International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND) chaired by Gareth Evans and Yoriko Kawaguchi. She was a Commissioner on the 2014-2016 Global Commission on Internet Governance SARAH BIDGOOD chaired by Carl Bildt and is on the EEAS Space Sarah Bidgood is Director of the Advisory Board (SAB) as a Senior Space Advisor to the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program EU Special Envoy for Space. She holds a BSc (Hons) in at the James Martin Center for physics from Manchester University, a PhD in nuclear Nonproliferation Studies. Bidgood's physics from Birmingham University and an Honorary work is focused on US-Russia Doctor of Laws from the University of Warwick. arms control and non-proliferation She is a dual national of the UK and Ireland. cooperation, as well as the international non- proliferation regime more broadly. She also directs CNS' Young Women in Nonproliferation Initiative.
TOGZHAN KASSENOVA Dr Togzhan Kassenova, a native of Kazakhstan, is a Washington, DC- MAPATHÉ NDIAYE based senior fellow at the Center for Policy Research at the State Mapathé Ndiaye is a geologist who University of New York at Albany. graduated from the University of She is also an adjunct faculty at Geneva (Switzerland). Ndiaye is the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George presently a Professor in Applied Washington University and a nonresident fellow at the Geology and Applied Geophysics Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. at the University of Thiès (Senegal). Ndiaye is also the station operator and Public Key Infrastructure operator of BBTS (AS097) auxiliary seismic station of the CTBTO’s International Monitoring System network.
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 5 Current Treaty Status
(as of 15 June 2020)
MEMBER STATES 184
TOTAL RATIFICATIONS 168
ANNEX 2 RATIFICATIONS 36
LATEST STATE SIGNATORY TUVALU
LATEST RATIFYING STATE ZIMBABWE
CTBTO Executive Secretary Lassina Zerbo with the Prime Minister of Tuvalu, Enele Sopoaga, at the signing of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty by Tuvalu on 25 September 2018.
6 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 International Monitoring System Status
(as of 15 June 2020)
CERTIFIED FACILITIES 300
INSTALLED 11
UNDER CONSTRUCTION 5
PLANNED 21
AS072 RN15 IS18 RN49 AS016 RN55 AS091 AS073 AS090 IS53 IS37 PS28 PS34 AS017 RN57 PS49 AS027 AS038 RN76 PS09 RN34 AS012 AS086 RN16 IS43 RN56 AS088 PS27 PS17 AS082 AS101 RN63 RL07 RN61 PS35 AS093 AS013 RN54 RN59 AS110 RL13 IS44 AS085 PS33 RN71 PS10 AS104 AS084 PS36 HA02 IS46 RN60 AS015 PS08 AS094 AS059 AS057 AS112 RL15 AS087 RN45 AS115 IS26 PS45 IS31 AS058 IS10 AS026 IS34PS12 RN14 RL08 RN33 PS19 AS089 IS56 RN17 RL03 PS25 IS45 AS102 PS23 AS092 RL16 AS083 AS020 RN58 AS014 RL05 AS081 PS32 RN20 PS37 AS054 PS48 AS060 AS109 RL10 RL06 AS113 PS22 IS42 PS40 PS43 AS003 IS15 RN70 HA07 PS21 RN38 PS47 RN75 PS44 RN21 RN74 RN53 IS48 AS050 IS29 PS31 RL11 AS107 PS42 AS049 PS13 AS108 AS111 AS036 RN36 IS30 AS023 IS57 AS056 PS29 AS051 AS053 IS51 AS066 RN41 AS047 RL09 AS022 IS58 PS46 AS029 AS048 RN40 AS046 RN44 RN72 IS38 AS068 AS052 RN78 IS16 AS055 PS16 RN37 AS021 AS065 PS38 AS074 AS007 RN22 IS60 RN79 HA11 AS063 HA05 IS59 RN77 HA06 AS116 RN28 RN43 PS41 AS064 RN48 AS096 IS25 RN52 AS037 IS11 AS105 AS097 AS062 RN65 AS080 PS26 IS19 RN80 AS028 AS025 AS118 RN25 RN50 AS117 IS17 AS030 RN31 IS12 AS100 AS079 IS39 PS15 IS28 PS14 AS033 PS11 RN35 RN13 RN42 AS043 RN39 IS20 AS039 PS20 PS24 RN24 AS010 AS103 AS042 RN51 AS034 IS32 AS041 IS40 HA08 AS044 AS076 AS011 IS50 RN66 AS077 RN64 AS040 RN12 HA10 IS52 IS21 AS075 AS098 IS06 AS045 AS078 RN08 RN09 AS095 PS18 IS08 PS07 AS119 RN27 PS06 AS008 IS09 RN67 AS031 IS35 AS061 IS24 AS005 PS02 RN06 RN26 AS024 AS067 IS33 AS120 IS07 AS004 AS032 RN23 RL04 RN29 IS22 AS018 AS019 RN11 PS30 AS009 PS03 RN19 RN02 IS41 RL14 IS13 PS39 RN10 IS47 AS070 AS006 HA03 AS001 RN01 AS099 HA01 PS04 IS14 IS49 RL01 RN62 IS04 HA09 RN04 RN47 PS01 RN68 RL02 AS071 RN03 IS01 RL12 IS05 RN46 AS069 IS36 HA04 IS23 RN30
RN18 IS02 AS002 RN07
AS106 IS54 RN73 PS05 RN32 RN05 IS03 IS27 AS035
RN69 PS50 IS55
AS114
Primary Seismic Auxiliary Seismic Infrasound Hydroacoustic Radionuclide Radionuclide w/ Noble Gas Radionuclide Lab
The map shows the 337 facilities around the globe that make up the CTBTO’s International Monitoring System.
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 7 CTBTO Executive Secretary answers questions at the press briefing in Vienna after the technical briefing to Member NPT and CTBT: States on 3 September 2017 following the DPRK nuclear test earlier that day. a key relationship in tough times
BY CTBTO EDITORIAL TEAM 1
Reaching consensus within any and delayed solutions are severely multilateral institution today can be jeopardizing the global nuclear order arduous and elusive as the global as we know it, including the long- community grows more divided standing credibility and sustainability over ideology, identity politics and of one of the most universal treaties, hardening diplomatic positions. the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation Key arms control agreements and of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). non-proliferation measures, such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Fifty years after the NPT entered into Forces (INF) Treaty and the Joint force, many scholars and experts Comprehensive Plan of Action interviewed by CTBTO expressed (JCPOA), have lost support and deep concern over the erosion of the adherence. The New Strategic Arms existing arms control and non-prolif- Reduction Treaty (New START), the eration framework, and skepticism only remaining bilateral nuclear over the prospects for a successful arms control agreement, is due 2020 NPT Review Conference when to expire in 2021 and a possible the gathering, postponed because extension remains uncertain. of COVID-19, finally goes ahead. But they also stressed how closely
Protracted and deep-seated griev- the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test- 1 The overall views and conclusions ances fueled by perceptions of missed Ban Treaty (CTBT) is bound up with expressed in this article by the CTBTO Editorial Team do not necessarily represent opportunities, betrayed commitments the NPT, with an end to nuclear the views of individual experts quoted.
8 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 tests providing a foundation for the When it comes to the future The NPT itself sees the whole international disarmament of the NPT, two trends are CTBT as a major factor and non-proliferation framework. particularly worrisome. contributing to the non- A DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT First, the 2020 NPT Review Confer- proliferation regime and Sérgio Duarte, president of the ence comes on the heels of the a foundation for further 2005 NPT Review Conference and a failed 2015 NPT Conference where former UN High Representative for no consensus Final Document was measures leading to a Disarmament Affairs, notes that: delivered. Disillusionment among world free of nuclear “The erosion [of the global arms member-states has endured ever weapons. control framework] is real and since. And in 2019, NPT States threatens the NPT itself. Important Parties failed to adopt a common treaties and agreements between the set of recommendations for the future of multilateral nuclear diplo- major powers have been abandoned 2020 Review Conference, making a macy. They also, however, prompt and the multilateral disarmament rapid consensus unlikely this time. much-needed reflection over how structure is at peril. There seems Second, as the NPT machinery such changes will ultimately affect to be no will to enter into new arms reaches an institutional stalemate, other multilateral nuclear trea- control negotiations to take account some member states have begun ties, and in particular the CTBT. of advances in technology. Over 20 to search for consensus platforms years after its adoption, the CTBT elsewhere. New initiatives on nuclear The upcoming NPT Review Confer- has not entered into force. For nearly non-proliferation and disarmament ence: expectations and realism three decades now the Conference have flourished to rethink traditional According to Patricia Lewis, who on Disarmament has been unable to multilateral mechanisms. Most of heads the Chatham House Inter- start substantive work. It is impera- these initiatives have been conceived national Security programme: tive that States respect commitments outside the NPT Framework and “The most pressing challenge facing entered into. Leaders – particularly operate as networks and interest the 2020 NPT Review Conference is in nuclear weapon states – should groups largely separated from the the reversal of progress in nuclear realize that their responsibilities rest of the international community. disarmament. Nuclear weapons toward the community of nations are The largest of these new nuclear are once again on the rise in terms wider than their parochial interests. initiatives, the Humanitarian Initiative of significance and salience in Public opinion must participate on Nuclear Weapons, was launched possessing countries – despite there actively in the common effort to in 2013 by a coalition of non-nuclear being no inherent conflict at stake. achieve peace and security for all.” weapons states alienated by the This is having knock-on effects and lack of progress on disarmament we are seeing some countries start For Bruno Tertrais, deputy within the NPT negotiations. The to once again consider acquiring the director of the French think-tank initiative ultimately led to the adop- nuclear weapons capabilities that Fondation pour la recherche tion of the Treaty on the Prohibition they had eschewed in joining the NPT. stratégique (FRS), the urgent chal- of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) which lenge is “Saving what’s left!”: remains legally and institution- “I think supporters of the NPT need to “At this point in time, avoiding moving ally outside the NPT regime. encourage the US and Russia in their backwards is at least as important as efforts to get old-fashioned arms moving forward. It’s a modest agenda The most recent US-led Initiative on control back on the table – along with but the most urgent one. Saving New Creating the Environment for Nuclear robust, workable verification systems. START is obviously the priority. I Disarmament (CEND), launched in This is really about relationships and don’t see this as being impossible.” 2018, has been designed as a platform seeing the value of framing the role for dialogue among selected and of nuclear weapons in international Former Russian Ambassador Grigory like-minded countries. Similarly, security in a way that reduces their Berdennikov also voices particular the Swedish Initiative on Disarma- salience and their inherent risks.” concern about New START: ment, inaugurated during the NPT “If there is no extension, it means Preparatory Committee in 2019, has Angela Kane, a former UN High that in less than a year from now, for gathered a group of 14 countries Representative for Disarmament the first time since 1972, mankind will to reinvigorate cooperation over Affairs, shares Lewis’ concerns but face a vacuum free from any treaty nuclear disarmament while seeking also highlights how the successful regulation in nuclear arms control to provide continuity with past efforts. negotiation of the TPNW adds and in strategic relations between the further complexity and deepens two largest nuclear weapon powers.” The challenges to the NPT regime the political divide within the NPT raise important questions on the constituency of member states.
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 9 “Countries that have either signed bombs. Such a document could be Bruno Tertrais: or ratified the TPNW—or are agreed at the level of presidents and “It strikes me that so few people, intending to do so—will not wish prime ministers – and it should get in policy circles, realize how much to cause a disruption to the NPT to the very core of what is important the end of nuclear testing is at review conference, but still it will be about the Treaty. An agreed Review the forefront of the whole nuclear something that will be in the back Document would be good, but all disarmament and non-proliferation of everyone’s mind, particularly as experts acknowledge that it will regime. Many policy-makers and the numbers are inching upwards be hard to achieve any meaningful analysts seem to have forgotten how towards the 50 ratification bar that agreement on the past five years and much the ban on testing was a key basically means that the treaty will on a framework for going forward.” to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.” come into force. And that may actu- Chilean diplomat Hellmut Lagos The complementarity and interde- ally happen within the next year.” also sees value in reaffirming the pendence between the two treaties is A Final Document from the Review basic principles of the NPT: clear. In its preamble, the NPT recalls Conference is important for at least “It is vital that all NPT States Parties the determination of the international two reasons. Firstly, it indicates the renovate their previous commitments community “to seek to achieve the existence of an alignment of global and give a clear signal of unity, discontinuance of all test explosions interests and positions regarding particularly in light of the 50 years of nuclear weapons for all time”. nuclear policies and priorities for of the NPT. This anniversary should This measure is considered in the global peace and security. Secondly, serve as a platform to highlight Non-Proliferation Treaty as an it showcases the willingness of the importance and relevance of indispensable condition to halt NPT States Parties to accept the Treaty, but at the same time, a the nuclear arms race, to prevent compromises in order to safeguard chance to show the international countries from acquiring nuclear international cooperation, and community that there is a willing- weapons and to accelerate nuclear to operate by consensus rather ness to improve its implementation. disarmament. Thus, one can say that than through unilateral means. Initiatives to strengthen the Nuclear the NPT itself sees the CTBT as a Weapons Free Zones and promote major factor contributing to the non- the establishment [of a NWFZ] in proliferation regime and a foundation The CTBT might be cast the Middle East, even if difficult, for further measures leading to a as the consensus should not be given up. Another world free of nuclear weapons. multilateral nuclear helpful development is to continue to explore common non-proliferation In its turn, the CTBT in its agreement that, initiatives that don’t replace, but preamble recognizes that: through scientific complement, disarmament efforts.” “…the cessation of all nuclear cooperation and data- weapon test explosions and all other For Sérgio Duarte: nuclear explosions, by constraining sharing among all “Given the current state of mistrust the development and qualitative member states around and outright hostility between the improvement of nuclear weapons the world, continues major powers, the Review Confer- and ending the development of ence should, as a minimum, reaffirm advanced new types of nuclear to bridge the divide the primacy of international law as weapons, constitutes an effective between the haves the basis for further progress. In measure of nuclear disarmament and and the have-nots. this connection, it would be useful non-proliferation in all its aspects.” for the 2020 Conference to agree Grigory Berdennikov explains: Of course, a Final Document is that ‘a nuclear war cannot be won “One can hardly imagine that any non- achievable only if NPT member states and must never be fought’. Over nuclear weapons state which decides negotiate from the centre and avoid the years, a number of concrete to go nuclear could do it without a adopting intransigent positions. measures to build confidence have nuclear test explosion. But such a test Given the complexity of achieving been suggested, but opportunities for would surely be detected by the Inter- a Final Document, Patricia Lewis progress have been lost or neglected. national Monitoring System which is calls for a different outcome: Those suggestions should be revived an element of the CTBTO. This capa- “For the 2020 NPT Review Confer- and given serious consideration.” bility was convincingly demonstrated ence, I’d like to see a high-level docu- when the DPRK conducted its tests. ment stressing the vital importance of THE NPT-CTBT NEXUS Thus, the CTBTO provides an obstacle the NPT on its 50th anniversary – and Diplomats and experts agree the to nuclear proliferation, strength- of course the 75th anniversary of relationship between the CTBT and ening the non-proliferation regime. the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear the NPT is vital. In the words of “In my opinion, by providing this help
10 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 to the non-proliferation regime and The desire to find goals misperceptions among nuclear by being the indispensable founding that serve as common weapons states and nuclear aspirant stone for further arms control and countries amid geopolitical tensions. disarmament measures, the CTBT denominators was makes a major contribution to visible at the 2019 NPT REVIVING THE CENTRALITY OF international security. If the CTBT is Preparatory Committee, THE CTBT AT THE NPT REVCON destroyed it will be a serious blow The discussion that took place during to the maintenance of international where more than 75 the NPT PrepCom in 2019 might security both directly and indirectly member states in their serve as a conduit to formulate through the weakening of the NPT.” opening statements a few expectations on how the CTBT will be framed during the Over the years the linkage between mentioned the CTBT as upcoming Review Conference. the two treaties has become even a bridge-building and stronger. The promise to nego- consensus treaty. Here are some preliminary tiate the CTBT and put it into force observations: stood as an essential pre-condi- papers then followed, submitted by tion for achieving an indefinite exten- widely diverse coalitions of countries, 1. The CTBT might be cast as sion of the NPT in May 1995. In 2000, to reiterate the indispensable role the consensus multilateral nuclear NPT States Parties identified the entry of CTBT in nuclear nonproliferation agreement that, through scientific into force of the CTBT as the first of and in the disarmament process. cooperation and data-sharing among thirteen practical steps to achieve Amid geopolitical uncertainties, these all member states around the world, nuclear disarmament. Most specifi- diplomatic statements recognized continues to bridge the divide between cally, the Final Document reaffirms: CTBT as the treaty that could help the haves and the have-nots. “…the importance and urgency of bridge the gap between nuclear signatures and ratifications, without weapons states and non-nuclear 2. The CTBT as the emblem of delay and without conditions and weapons states. global science diplomacy in action. in accordance with constitutional Great enthusiasm today surrounds processes, to achieve the early entry Innovative frameworks were also the role that scientists can play in into force of the Comprehensive introduced at the NPT PrepCom in finding common ground in highly Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty”. support of the CTBT. In its national politicized debates over global statement, and while introducing its challenges, ranging from nuclear Finally, the Action Plan on disarma- government-led initiative on support proliferation to climate change ment adopted by the NPT member to the NPT 2020, Sweden cast CTBT as and beyond. The CTBTO, with its states at the conclusion of the 2010 a transparency enhancement mecha- extraordinary pool of scientists NPT Review Conference identified nism in arms control agreements. and the deployment of four tech- five actions that the international This is important because it recog- nologies, has in recent months been community was required to undertake nizes both the confidence-building celebrated as the perfect example to accelerate the entry into force of role that CTBT can play in a widely of science diplomacy in action. the CTBT as a “core element of the diverging international community, international nuclear disarmament and the role it plays through its veri- 3. The CTBT as a confidence and non-proliferation regime”. fication system as a credible enforcer building mechanism in talks on of rules and principles widely shared regional and global crises. Tensions LOOKING BACK TO MOVE FORWARD by that international community. in nuclear arms negotiations, As the margins of political consensus including recent efforts towards among NPT member states shrink Finally, a few countries began to denuclearization of the Korean Penin- and multilateral ambitions recede, the discuss CTBT in the context of broader sula, have underscored the need for need to identify policy areas where risk-reduction strategies. Discussions substantive confidence-building meas- pragmatic consensus can be forged on what constitute mutually agreed ures that could highlight the good faith becomes essential and urgent. The steps that might reduce the risks of of the parties to resolve crises peace- desire to find goals that serve as miscalculation or military confronta- fully. As the international community common denominators was visible at tions are now emerging in various today confronts these nuclear crises the 2019 NPT Preparatory Committee, academic and policy settings. CTBT and tries to resolve them, an impor- where more than 75 member states in has been listed alongside de-alerting tant political opening might emerge their opening statements mentioned and other instruments as an indis- for the CTBT to play a critical role in the CTBT as a bridge-building and pensable instrument to elevate global de-escalating tensions among parties. consensus treaty. A flurry of working strategic transparency and reduce
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 11 The Comprehensive Nuclear- Test-Ban-Treaty at the United Nations in New York. The The CTBT: Treaty was photographed on the occasion of the signature ceremony on 25 September rebuilding 2018 when Tuvalu signed the CTBT. trust in the multilateral nuclear regime
BY CTBTO EDITORIAL TEAM 1
The year 2020 marks the 75th anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the 50th anniversary of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Yet since the last NPT Review Conference in 2015, the multilateral non-proliferation and disarmament framework has suffered a series of shocks and is facing serious chal- lenges to its credibility and integrity.
The international community is increasingly split on the importance and value of a norms-based order rooted in negotiated treaties and agreements. Trust in the disarmament and non-proliferation regime is at a low point, with analysts pointing to a lack of implementation of past deci- sions and commitments as a factor contributing to a credibility deficit in the multilateral process. Some observers say we are witnessing an erosion or even destruction of treaty-based arms control.
1 The overall views and conclusions expressed in this article by the CTBTO Editorial Team do not necessarily represent the views of individual experts quoted.
12 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 The key agreements and treaties, a former UN High Representative In the current, which resulted from careful and for Disarmament Affairs, also expert technical negotiations, are stresses the importance of reviving hostile geopolitical the foundations of the multilateral a multilateral approach: environment, this non-proliferation regime that “Over the past 50 years the NPT has robust and proven consolidates global norms of behav- been largely successful in containing iour. They are bulwarks against the the number of States that possess verification regime proliferation of nuclear weapons, nuclear means of destruction. Today, provides impartial and enhance confidence and trust however, the credibility of the regime confidence to in the multipolar system of states. is shaken as a result of the lack of progress in nuclear disarmament member states, and In the words of former Russian and the apparent willingness of the to the international Ambassador Grigory Berdennikov: nuclear-weapon states to retain their community at large. “The whole history of international arsenals in perpetuity. The most relations is a witness to the fact that pressing challenge is to restore confi- there is no alternative to treaty- dence in the multilateral process. based relations among nations, and arms control is no exception.” VERIFIABILITY BUILDS TRUST: THE been built up following the establish- CTBT AS CONFIDENCE-BUILDER ment of the CTBTO in 1997. Today, One of these prime initiatives is the some 300 International Monitoring Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban In arms control and non-proliferation System (IMS) installations around the Treaty (CTBT). Ahead of the postponed agreements, verifiability builds globe are sending data to the Inter- 2020 NPT Review Conference, experts trust between parties – particularly national Data Centre (IDC) in Vienna, interviewed for Spectrum agree between adversaries. A robust from where the information is shared that the CTBT remains a significant verification regime is an essential with member states. The system has mechanism that can continue to element of a credible arms control accurately detected and characterized build confidence and trust in the agreement, providing reassurance all six nuclear tests by the DPRK. nuclear non-proliferation framework that states are implementing their through the proven value of its commitments. This is particularly Patricia Lewis, Director of the Inter robust global verification regime. important during times of heightened national Security Programme geo-political tensions and in an era at Chatham House in London, says: Former UN High Representative for of eroding trust between states. “The CTBT is one of the most impor- Disarmament Affairs Angela Kane tant treaties in the field of nuclear sees a shift away from multilateralism Verification regimes proved their disarmament and non-proliferation. within the international system: worth during the height of the The fact that, 24 years after its nego- “What is missing these days—and bipolar Cold War between two hostile tiation, it has not yet entered what I have seen over the course adversaries. We are now operating into force is a peculiar situation and of my life and my career – was that in a complex multipolar system of a source of shame for the there was always a strong support states characterized by high levels of international community. of multilateralism and global action. mistrust and strategic competition, There are countries that have now where the traditional arms control “The IMS, which is established to stepped back from such a global view. architecture is crumbling and treaty- verify the Treaty once it comes into When you look at how treaties that based norms are being questioned. force, has already proven itself to be have been agreed to are being signed This is a world which requires solid an important facility for many coun- and ratified, the pace is very slow. elements of verifiable reassurance. tries for earthquake prediction and That was not the case in earlier years, tsunami warnings. I think that the IMS earlier decades. I find it regrettable The CTBT has a verification regime is a valuable resource for all – one that this worldwide view that we are that is second to none, monitoring that goes way beyond the CTBT veri- all in this together has been eroded the globe continuously for any sign fication task. The IMS has surpassed by saying ‘My country comes first, I of a nuclear test. In the current, expectations in its ability do not wish to be in a community of hostile geopolitical environment, to create a global network of detec- states which binds me by giving me this robust and proven verification tors that monitor the land, sea and certain restrictions on how I wish regime provides impartial confidence air for nuclear explosions and has to act.’” to member states, and to the inter- contributed to international security national community at large. The already by detecting and analysing Sérgio Duarte, president of the reassurance that the CTBT fosters has the nuclear tests conducted by 2005 NPT Review Conference and grown as its verification regime has North Korea.”
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 13 Indeed, the CTBT can serve as a The CTBT can serve as and individuals that are otherwise confidence-building measure to a confidence-building separated by conflict or mistrust. support the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Executive measure to support the As a technical international organiza- Secretary Lassina Zerbo has made denuclearization of tion, the work of the CTBTO provides clear that the CTBTO is ready to make the Korean Peninsula. reliable information to member states its assets and expertise available to in support of international security. contribute to denuclearization efforts, Executive Secretary The IMS is a true feat of science and if member states ask it to do so. Lassina Zerbo has made diplomacy: a technological network clear that the CTBTO is located worldwide that provides Within the NPT review process, the impartial information to member CTBT and the work of the CTBTO ready to make its assets states and scientists to catch signs should be a unifying issue, one and expertise available of nuclear explosions, and which common denominator that states to contribute to can also yield a range of civil and can agree support for. At the 2019 scientific benefits. Through formal NPT Preparatory Committee for denuclearization efforts, tsunami warning agreements, IMS the 2020 Review Conference, the if member states ask it data are being made available to vast majority of NPT States Parties to do so. support national authorities in 16 expressed their support for the CTBT, countries to issue fast, accurate whether through national statements public tsunami alerts. IMS data can or association with regional state- could promote further signatures help to track radionuclides after ments, or through the submission of and ratifications of the CTBT, civil nuclear accidents, to monitor and association with official working particularly by the eight remaining climate, and to support a wide papers. More than 70 states made Annex 2 countries whose ratification range of other scientific research. direct references to the CTBT in their is required for it to come into force. Patricia Lewis says science national statements, most of which diplomacy is “one of the best expressly called for the Treaty’s entry Chilean diplomat Hellmut Lagos initiatives to come out of the into force and universalization. Several argues that cross-regional, issue- CTBTO’s work in recent years”: working papers, with the endorse- based groupings can be key vehicles in “The role of scientists is vital in ment of more than 150 countries all promoting the CTBT’s entry into force: finding the solutions to our prob- together, were submitted expressing “A good example of this is the Non lems. Not all of those solutions are support for the CTBT. Perhaps states Proliferation and Disarmament about science and technology but, can be unified in promoting one Initiative (NPDI) that has published for diplomats to find new avenues, joint working paper or statement in op-eds including this issue. These they have to understand the science support of the CTBT, drawing together groups can also organize joint behind the issues and, for scientists all such statements of support. demarches to the capitals of Annex to contribute, they have to understand 2 states and work together for the diplomacy. I have seen many occa- Angela Kane highlights the Article XIV Conferences on Facilitating sions when both communities work potential role of the CTBT in Entry into Force of the CTBT.” effectively together for the good of bringing together diverging views humanity and the environment. I am on pathways to disarmament: THE CTBT: particularly delighted with the young “One of the ways it [the divide] EMBODYING SCIENCE DIPLOMACY scientists that I have met at CTBTO can be bridged is by looking at not The CTBT is also one of the greatest Science and Technology conferences only the nuclear weapons, but by examples of the nexus between from all over the world. They are the looking at supportive measures. science and diplomacy. It was the future, and that gives me hope.” The supportive measure foremost work of scientists that made the nego- in my mind is the CTBT.” tiation of the CTBT possible, by proving In addition to its biennial Science that a comprehensive, zero-yield and Technology conferences, the Kane says she is ‘very encour- nuclear test ban could be verified. CTBTO has launched a series of aged’ by a proposal last November With ever escalating tensions, science Science Diplomacy Symposia. The by Kazakhstan’s First President helps us to identify concrete steps that third of these, originally scheduled Nursultan Nazarbayev to establish can bring opposing views together. for March 2020, now looks set to go a Global Alliance of Leaders for The language of science is universal ahead in November. In addition to a Nuclear-Free World to advance and can reach beyond political differ- examining the lessons that can be the nuclear non-proliferation and ences and help build trust and under- learned from the CTBT, the Symposia disarmament agenda. Calling this standing. Science is borderless, able aim to stimulate creative thinking an ‘excellent initiative’, she said it to cut across countries, communities about possible political, legal and
14 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 Analysts viewing data at the CTBTO/PTS Operations Centre (COPC) which is an integrated facility with state-of-the-art technology equipment for monitoring and supporting IMS, IDC and OSI operations of the verification regime.
Within the NPT review arguments in favour of the Treaty and alike. The CTBT is a mechanism process, the CTBT and the organization are made by non- that not only fosters confidence and governmental analysts and are heard trust in the nuclear non-proliferation the work of the CTBTO by as many consistuencies as possible framework, with the proven value of should be a unifying in as many countries as possible.” its robust global verification regime, issue, one common but can actually help restore trust in Hellmut Lagos also emphasizes the broader nuclear policy landscape. denominator that states that education is vital in promoting can agree support for. the entry into force of the CTBT When states parties gather for the and attaining the ratification of delayed 2020 NPT Review Conference, the final eight Annex 2 states: the CTBT can and should be one diplomatic solutions among diplo- “When we talk about the catastrophic issue on which they can seek some mats, practitioners, policymakers, humanitarian consequences of any agreement as a basis for further academics and the next generation use of nuclear weapons, we should progress. Positive action on the CTBT to the challenges facing the Treaty. also consider the use through nuclear would provide the progress that we Experts interviewed here also weapon testing. There is not enough need to see in the NPT review cycle highlighted the important role that dissemination of this issue, which at this time of disillusionment, and education can play, both in helping would change the perceptions and build confidence and trust in the to build empathy and trust in the motivate the citizens of those states. broader non-proliferation regime. nuclear non-proliferation regime, Only then it will become an important and in promoting the CTBT. Bruno political priority for governments.” Given that CTBT verification is up Tertrais, deputy director of the The restoration of credibility in the and running with its state-of-the art French think-tank Fondation pour la nuclear non-proliferation and arms IMS, supporting a de-facto global recherche stratégique (FRS), says: control regime is a long-term goal moratorium on nuclear tests, entry “I have a very modest view of what that will require steady and consistent into force is the most effective disar- think-tankers can do in these layering of commitment by the inter- mament measure within the grasp matters. But I do think that we can national community – nuclear-weapon of the international community. have a role in ensuring that the best states and non-nuclear-weapon states
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 15 Group of Eminent Persons (GEM) at the CTBT: Science and Technology Conference 2019 (SnT2019)
GEM members drafting the declaration at the Hofburg Palace in Vienna. GEM members Grigory Berdennikov (L), Ho-Jin Lee (C-R), Sérgio de Queiroz Duarte (R) are joined by Ambassador Marcel Fortuna Biato (C-L).
GEM members Nobuyasu Abe (L), Kim Won-soo (C) and Ahmet Üzümcü (R). GEM members Angela Kane and Abel Adelakun Ayoko.
GEM members Ho-Jin Lee and Wolfgang Hoffmann. GEM members Angela Kane and Abel Ayoko speaking on a panel session along with Anna Maria Cetto and John Bernhard on 25 June 2019.
GEM member Lord Browne of Ladyton giving a keynote address on 25 June 2019.
16 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 GEM Declaration JUNE 2019
The GEM participating in this Conference collectively:
Members of the CTBTO’s 1. Express their unwavering 8. Stress the important role Group of Eminent Persons commitment to promoting that GEM and CYG can play (GEM) met in June 2019 on the the CTBT, recognizing the in promoting the CTBT; sidelines of the Science and importance of the treaty in the 9. Recognize the overarching objec- Technology 2019 conference global non-proliferation and tive of achieving a world free of at Vienna’s Hofburg Palace. disarmament architecture; nuclear weapons and highlight 2. Recognize that the CTBT consti- the importance of first achieving They adopted this Declaration, tutes the most effective and prac- the key precondition for this - a reaffirming their commitment to tical non-proliferation and disar- world without nuclear testing; promoting the Comprehensive mament measure within grasp Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and 10. Recognize the contribution of of the international community; calling on all States for their the CTBT and its verification support in advancing its entry 3. Call upon all States to continue regime to human health and into force, notably during the their support in advancing the protection of the environment by 10th NPT Review Conference. entry into force of the Treaty enforcing a comprehensive ban as the most practical step on nuclear explosions, thereby towards nuclear disarmament, contributing substantively to notably during the upcoming the advancement of the 2030 2020 NPT Review Conference; Sustainable Development Goals;
4. Recall United Nations Security 11. Encourage further promo- Council Resolution 2310 (2016) tion of the science diplomacy which urges all States that have nexus through concrete CTBTO either not signed or not ratified capacity building projects and the Treaty, particularly the eight further research and coordina- remaining Annex 2 States, to tion with relevant peace and do so without further delay and development agencies; encourages all States Signatories 12. Expressed their appreciation to promote the universality and for the CTBTO well-established entry into force of the Treaty; series of SnT conferences that 5. Commit to place the CTBT on provides a forum for scientists, the agenda of the world’s most industry leaders and policy- important events and to conduct makers from around the world tailored outreach work in line to exchange knowledge and with the 2019-2020 plan of action share advances in monitoring adopted at the conference; and verification technologies of relevance to the Comprehensive 6. Urge the international community Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. These to make full use of the CTBT veri- conferences facilitate better fication expertise and knowledge connection between policy and in the process of denucleariza- science and the articulation of tion of the Korean Peninsula; new ideas and technologies that 7. Emphasize the role of civil society, are essential for promoting global academia and youth to develop peace and security .In this context tailored strategies for increased call upon States to support regional support for the CTBT and through voluntary contribu- its universalization; tions capacity building projects focusing on the next generation of policy and scientific leaders. The CTBT and the 2020 NPT Review Cycle: challenges, risks, and opportunities
BY SARAH BIDGOOD
Executive Secretary Lassina Zerbo addresses the 2015 NPT Review Conference on 29 April 2015 Photo Credit: UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe
When the Comprehensive Nuclear- entry into force. In part because a and experts should consider how Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) was concluded return to widespread nuclear testing the CTBT can help address the in 1996, US President Bill Clinton has seemed so unlikely in recent world’s most pressing nuclear called it the “longest sought, hardest years, efforts to persuade the eight threats. Reaffirming the Treaty’s fought prize in arms control history.” remaining Annex 2 states to pursue contributions to the non-proliferation This characterization proved both ratification have been unsuccessful. regime would be an important first more prescient—and more prema- As a result, the CTBT is neither legally step toward reinvigorating support ture—than he could have imagined binding or enforceable today, a situa- for its entry into force today. at the time. While 168 countries have tion that places the non-proliferation ratified the CTBT as of February 2020, community at a significant The upcoming 2020 Review Confer- eight of the 44 states that must do disadvantage. ence of Treaty on the Non-Prolifera- so in order for it to enter into force tion of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) could have not. This situation has remained This is especially the case today, constitute a target of opportunity for unchanged since 2012, when Indo- given that the international security this endeavor. Here, States Parties nesia became the 36th Annex 2 State situation is both more dangerous will have the chance to underscore to become a party to the Treaty. than it was a year ago and rapidly the CTBT’s relevance to new and long- deteriorating. The traditional arms standing challenges while highlighting In spite of these circumstances, the control architecture is eroding, and its mutually reinforcing relationship CTBT has played a crucial role in the norm against nuclear testing with the NPT. They could do so in an the development of a robust global could potentially follow suit. Faced especially compelling way when it norm against nuclear testing in the with the challenges posed by North comes to addressing North Korea’s nearly 24 years since its conclusion. Korea’s nuclear weapons program, nuclear weapons program. If North One unintended consequence of this the unraveling of the Joint Compre- Korea signed and ratified the CTBT, outcome, however, is the current lack hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and this would provide a legally binding of urgency surrounding the Treaty’s a return to arms racing, practitioners assurance that Kim Jong Un planned
18 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 to uphold the nuclear test moratorium Article VI of the NPT, which will no The CTBT’s applicability he unilaterally declared in April 2018. doubt be a focal point at the Review to the full roster of Proposals to this effect were included Conference, as well. While its role in the 2018 NPT Chair’s Factual in limiting vertical proliferation is non-proliferation Summary and the 2019 Chair’s fairly obvious, the CTBT can also challenges—both working paper, both of which urged help to lower the risk of nuclear existing and emerging— the DPRK to sign and ratify the use by reducing uncertainty and CTBT. Delegates should revisit this preventing NPT States Parties from is part of what makes it language as they look for practical engaging in certain provocative so central to efforts to recommendations that could attract behaviours. These include a return overcome them. widespread support when they to widespread nuclear testing, meet in New York later this year. which would worsen an already dire serve to diminish support for the international security situation and Treaty’s entry into force instead of The documents issued by the make deliberate or accidental nuclear increasing it. By the same token, Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) exchange more likely. An in-force however, States Parties are mandated chairs in 2018 and 2019 also CTBT would greatly increase the under the Strengthened Review encourage continued efforts toward political consequences of resuming process to assess past implementation the establishment of a the Weapons of testing while preventing nuclear of the NPT and to consider ways to Mass Destruction-Free Zone (WMDFZ) weapon States from developing new achieve further progress in the future. in the Middle East, and the CTBT has tactical nuclear weapons that would They cannot carry out this obligation in a role to play here, too. Were states in lower the threshold for nuclear use. good faith without acknowledging the the region to sign and ratify the CTBT, Revisiting the language from Action importance of the CTBT. A commit- it would help to reduce the trust deficit 5d of the 2010 Action Plan could ment to “achieve the discontinuance of between relevant actors—especially provide a useful starting point from all test explosions of nuclear weapons against the backdrop of an unravelling which to capture how the CTBT can for all time” is enshrined in preamble JCPOA. What is more, since nuclear help reduce nuclear risk. It calls of the NPT itself. Reaffirming this testing will almost certainly be prohib- upon the nuclear weapon States to objective is only appropriate upon the ited under any treaty establishing a “discuss policies that could prevent 50th anniversary of the NPT’s entry WMDFZ in the Middle East, joining the the use of nuclear weapons and into force, and doing so would go a CTBT would help to forge agreement eventually lead to their elimination, long way toward shoring up the cred- on this issue among diverse parties, lessen the danger of nuclear war and ibility of the nonproliferation regime at which could make future negotiations contribute to the non-proliferation and a time when it desperately needs it. easier. States in the region could disarmament of nuclear weapons.” start by installing and certifying their Identifying CTBT ratification as Whether in the context of addressing IMS stations, which would consti- one of these policies at the 2020 North Korea’s nuclear weapons, tute a powerful transparency and Review Conference would highlight establishing a WMDFZ in the Middle confidence-building measure without this Treaty’s relevance to what is East, or arms control and nuclear risk requiring an immediate commitment arguably one of the most significant reduction, the CTBT and its global to ratify. The moment is right to dangers the international community monitoring system provide opportuni- explore how these concrete steps and faces today. It would also serve to ties to build trust and confidence, others could help to operationalize underscore the continued validity of reduce uncertainty, and strengthen the political declaration adopted commitments agreed to in the 2010 norms and values shared by diverse at the inaugural session of the UN Review Conference final document, parties. The CTBT’s applicability to the conference on the establishment of which, as the most recent outcome full roster of non-proliferation chal- a WMD Free Zone in the Middle East document to have been adopted by lenges—both existing and emerging— in November 2019. In answering consensus, is especially significant. is part of what makes it so central to its call for “initiatives, resolutions, efforts to overcome them. With this decisions and recommendations” These proposals are likely to be in mind, States Parties, experts, and relevant to these efforts, delegations dismissed by States Parties that practitioners should consider how at the Review Conference should oppose the CTBT, and there is some best to highlight the Treaty’s salience highlight where the CTBT, as both a risk that raising the profile of Treaty during this final act of the 2020 NPT non-proliferation and arms control too visibly during the current review Review Cycle without increasing its treaty, can contribute to this process. cycle may have the opposite of its vulnerability. If successful, their intended effect. If the Conference efforts will help ensure that the In addition to its relevance to regional is unable to agree on the CTBT’s international community can take challenges, the CTBT is of central relevance to today’s most significant full advantage of this underutilized importance to the implementation of nuclear threats, this outcome could Treaty for which it fought so hard.
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 19 CTBTO GEM members and CTBTO Youth Group members exchanging views at the inter- Towards a real nuclear generational dialogue sessions at the 2019 CTBTO Science and inter-generational dialogue: Technology (SnT) Conference. the experience of CTBTO
BY CTBTO EDITORIAL TEAM
The call for a more inclusive dialogue new framework, the social contract “proved their power time and with younger generations on issues between generations includes burden- again in support of the cause of of global relevance is growing sharing over rising costs related to disarmament. Young campaigners more pressing by the day, within welfare for the aging population, but have worked at the forefront of the United Nations and beyond. also a more responsible approach to successful international campaigns the environment and development. to ban landmines, cluster muni- As the world population ages and Genuine inter-generational dialogue tions and nuclear weapons.” welfare costs increase, a solid inter- amid geopolitical uncertainties and generational social contract based global pains is also vital to establish Against this backdrop, the CTBTO on principles such as fairness, justice and nurture a globally minded class is actively supporting youth involve- and communitarianism is seen as of future leaders attuned to working ment through its CTBTO Youth indispensable for societies to remain collegially for the greater good. Group (CYG), and its experience of peaceful. The world’s media have been fostering constructive relationships riveted by youth activism on issues Inspired by the green movements, across the generational divide related to climate change, environ- inter-generational dialogues is yielding valuable lessons. mental protection and sustainability. are emerging in other domains These youth-led movements have including human rights and nuclear YOUTH FOR DISARMAMENT risen to global prominence because disarmament. In a recent report, UN According to the UN’s 2019 World they have been able to cast the rela- Secretary General António Gutierrez Population Prospects report, there tions among generations as a matter remarks that young people: are about 1.2 billion youth aged 15 of justice broadly conceived. In this to 24 years in the world, or 16 per
20 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 AGE BREAKDOWN cent of the global population. In 2019, Central and Southern Asia AGE RANGE NO. OF MEMBERS were home to the largest number <18 7 0.8% of youth (361 million), followed by Eastern and South-Eastern Asia (307 18 – 22 149 17.7 % million) and sub-Saharan Africa (211 23 – 26 276 32.7% million). Nearly half of the world’s young live in Sub-Saharan Africa. 27 – 30 221 26.2%
31 – 33 82 9.7% In the past two years, the United 34–35 45 5.3% Nations has accelerated its efforts to forge a constructive policy dialogue 35 < 50 5.9% with youth around the world. The Unknown 13 1.5% interest of the international commu- nity in engaging young people in the Total 843 100.0% most pressing issues of our times has resulted in the adoption of important policy and legislative instruments.
For example, in his Agenda for REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION Disarmament: Securing Our Common Future, Secretary General REGION NO. OF MEMBERS Gutierrez has asked the international Africa 117 13.9% community to undertake greater
Eastern Europe 115 13.6% efforts to empower young people and establish inclusive consultative Latin America and the Caribbean 51 6.0% mechanisms with them. In response Middle East and South Asia 183 21.7% to that call, late last year at its 74th session the First Committee of the North America, Western Europe 296 35.1% United Nations General Assembly South East Asia, the Pacific and the Far East 81 9.6% adopted – for the first time since its establishment – a resolution on Youth, Total 843 100.0% Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.
The resolution recognizes the critical role of young people as AFFILIATION agents for social change, and encourages Member States, the AFFILIATION NO. OF MEMBERS United Nations, relevant special- Student 442 52.4% ized agencies and regional and subregional organizations: Station Operator 2 0.2% “to promote the meaningful and Reseacher 108 12.8% inclusive participation of young
Professor 12 1.4% people in discussions in the field of disarmament and non-proliferation, Permanent Mission 6 0.7% including through dialogue plat- Other Ministry/Government Agency 46 5.5% forms, mentoring, internships, fellowships, scholarships, model Other 52 6.2% events and youth group activities”. Non Governmental Oganization 47 5.6% CTBTO YOUTH GROUP: NUMBERS National Data Centre 24 2.8% AND IMPACT Ministry of Foreign Affairs 4 0.5% The CYG, established in 2016 under
International Organization 31 3.7% the leadership of Executive Secretary Lassina Zerbo, today stands as one of Unknown 69 8.2% the largest youth initiatives on nuclear Total 843 100.0% disarmament and non-proliferation.
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 21 The scope of the initiative is twofold: to The initiative has certainly allowed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty’s preserve the extraordinary legacy and the CTBTO to benefit from the Preparatory Committee in 2017, historical achievements of the anti- incredible talent and creativity of 2018 and 2019. CYG members have nuclear-test movement by educating young professionals from around the also been invited to address CTBTO young people on the importance of world. From science to policy and Ministerial Meetings in 2017 and 2019. the CTBT and the urgency of banning the arts, young people engaged with nuclear test explosions once and the CTBTO have devised innovative CTBTO’S INTER- for all; and to work alongside the ways to reach young people around GENERATIONAL DIALOGUE new generation to find creative ways the world, integrate the Treaty into To capitalize further on the success to maintain and expand support educational curricula and bring CTBTO of the CYG initiative, the CTBTO has to the CTBTO from communities scientific knowledge to museums been working to convene a series of and societies, member states and and art forums. Similarly, the initia- Inter-Generational Dialogues between organizations around the world. tive has helped young professionals CYG members and established strengthen their understanding and diplomats, scientists and policy Today the CTBTO Youth Group knowledge of issues related to nuclear makers in the field of nuclear non- counts roughly 900 members from disarmament and non-proliferation. proliferation, sustainable develop- 101 countries with an almost equal Over 25 regional and national ment and disarmament. Two of the representation of women (48.3%), workshops and outreach educational most successful inter-generational and men (51.7%). The data provided activities have been organized in the dialogues convened by the CTBTO below offers a more comprehensive past three years with the participa- involved CYG members and selected picture of our youth members. tion of over 300 youth members. representatives from the CTBTO Group of Eminent Persons (GEM), At the same time, the CTBTO has A successful inter- held to mark the International Day established an internal Task Force generational dialogue against Nuclear Tests in August 2018, mandated to coordinate the CYG and during the CTBTO Science and initiative, identify opportunities for develops over time. Technology Conference in June 2019. youth engagement, develop and conduct capacity building training In addition, the CTBTO Youth Group In 2018, under the banner of the across regions and design social has facilitated the creation of a CTBTO GEM–Youth International media platforms to encourage global network of like-minded young Conference “Remembering the past, youth to share knowledge and professionals interested in working looking to the future”, CYG members experiences related to their work together to achieve a world free of and GEM participants examined in the promotion of the CTBT. nuclear weapons. The CTBTO has the conditions that allowed for made concerted efforts to feature the successful negotiations of the youth members in high-level meet- Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban ings, including CTBTO side-events at Treaty and discussed how the Treaty
CTBTO Youth Group members at 2019 SnT Conference in Vienna CTBTO Youth Group members exchange views with CTBTO GEM members at the inter-generational dialogue sessions at the 2019 SnT Conference held at the Hofburg Palace in Vienna.
continues to be relevant today. Before convening the dialogue, these challenges originated long ago. In 2019 the two groups focused on participants need to understand Similarly, young people offer insights how the Sustainable Development in what way this dialogue serves a into modern thinking that former Goals interplay with the mandate of higher purpose for the organization. diplomats might not be familiar with. the CTBT to achieve a world free of It is therefore important to recognize nuclear weapons. The two groups also B A learning experience that each dialogue is informed by a exchanged views on how educational for everyone specific historical context that skews institutions today should offer a Former diplomats and professionals interpretation of facts and perceptions. curriculum that better promotes well established in their field bring global citizenship and universal to the table a unique historical C Sustain the dialogue values. The dialogues between the perspective that should not be lost A successful inter-generational two groups were held in closed-door in the dialogue. In the case of the dialogue develops over time. Gener- sessions and were moderated by facil- Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban ally, when two groups come together itators specialized in inter-cultural Treaty, many of the GEM members for the first time, the dialogue mediation. The discussions were served as negotiators to the Treaty inevitably stays on a superficial structured in segments, each revolving itself. Personal accounts of how the level. It is only when the groups around the examination of a specific diplomatic negotiations unfolded meet for the second and third time policy question related to the mandate made for compelling and inspiring that a bond forms among their and current work of the CTBTO. stories encouraging much deeper members and deep learning begins. learning for all participants. Both dialogues ended in success as CONCLUSIONS participants worked collaboratively In addition, and even more impor- The CTBTO is deeply committed to towards the generation of new tantly, a historical perspective allows continue engaging with young people project ideas. As inter-generational participants, especially the youngest to promote and advance the vision dialogues proliferate around the ones, to recognize that all genera- of a world free of nuclear weapons. world, the experience of the CTBTO tions have faced troubling challenges We are also strong supporters of Youth Group – GEM dialogue revealed and encountered both defeats and forging a strong bond among genera- important lessons learned: victories along the way. Young people tions committed to such a goal. often erroneously believe that the We have planned new inter-gener- A Make it timely and relevant historical moment in which they are ational dialogues around the world, Inter-generational dialogues work coming of age is bleaker and more and we are determined to continue best if they are convened around conflictual than previous ones. It is to sustain such efforts in the future. concrete strategic questions that vital therefore to restore a historical can be best addressed through an perspective to today’s challenges and inclusive decision-making approach. to make young people understand that
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 23 75 years after Trinity: A legacy of harm and hope
BY CTBTO EDITORIAL TEAM
The first nuclear explosion: ‘Trinity’, 16 July 1945, Alamogordo, New Mexico, United States.
“It is high time to bring the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Seventy-five years ago – on 16 July, of the radioactive isotope carbon-14 into force. Let us take 1945 – the world’s first nuclear created by nuclear bomb tests can explosion seared the desert of New be used in carbon dating, and have the last steps of this Mexico. The plutonium-based, been found in sea creatures in the long journey and finish implosion-type device left a crater very deepest part of the ocean.1 one of the longest more than 300 metres wide and The UN Scientific Committee on prompted one of its creators, the Effects of Atomic Radiation sought international Robert Oppenheimer, to quote (UNSCEAR) notes that nuclear testing instruments in the area Hindu scripture: “Now I am become in the atmosphere, which ran from of non-proliferation and Death, the destroyer of worlds.” 1945 to 1980, was the most significant The U.S. ‘Trinity’ test, carried out cause of human exposure to man- disarmament. We owe it at the Alamogordo Test Range, was made environmental sources of radia- to ourselves, and to the first of more than 2,000 nuclear tion. “Each nuclear test resulted in future generations.” tests to be conducted worldwide unrestrained release into the environ- over the following half-century. ment of substantial quantities of radi- These tests have released vast oactive materials, which were widely Joint Statement by Kazakh Foreign Affairs Minister amounts of radioactive contamination dispersed in the atmosphere and Beibut Atamkulov and CTBTO Executive Secretary Lassina Zerbo, International Day against Nuclear around the globe, altering the very deposited everywhere on the Earth’s Tests, 2019 nature of our environment. Traces surface,” UNSCEAR said in its report
24 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 The area known as “Darse Denise” at France’s Centre d'expérimentation du Pacifique (CEP) in The “Darse Denise” area in 1998 Mururoa, French Polynesia in 1987. (photo: CEA) after the closure of the CEP. (photo: CEA)
Tower erected for the joint UK/US Icecap test The “Fregate” area of the CEP in Fangataufa, The “Fregate” area in 1998 after the closure scheduled for 1993. The tower still remains at the French Polynesia in 1966. (photo: CEA) of the CEP. (photo: CEA) Nevada National Security Site. (Photo: NNSA)
to the General Assembly in 2000. nuclear tests have been conducted in a white tower nearly 50 metres tall More than 60 locations worldwide the 24 years since the Treaty opened stands as it was in 1992, in prepara- have been used as test sites for for signature, and only one country, tion for a joint US-UK underground nuclear explosions, and in many North Korea, has done so this century. test called Icecap. The test was cases they have left a bleak legacy Some nuclear test sites have been cancelled when the United States of ill-health and environmental permanently closed. In 1991 Kazakh- halted its nuclear weapon testing. damage for those directly affected stan shut down the huge Semipalat- But there is no room for complacency. – especially where tests failed insk site, which had been the primary Until eight more specific states with to go as planned or the scale of testing site for the Soviet Union. The nuclear technology ratify the CTBT, their impact was not foreseen. date of its closure, 29 August, was it cannot become legally binding. This legacy of harm is testimony to later designated by the UN General At a time when the international the vital importance of the Compre- Assembly as the International Day nuclear non-proliferation and disar- hensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty against Nuclear Tests (IDANT). mament regime is increasingly under (CTBT). From the 1990s, moves by France has shut and dismantled pressure, the only way to secure all several nuclear weapon states to halt all its test sites – the only nuclear of the CTBT’s benefits for all time their own nuclear test explosions weapon state so far to do so. is to bring the Treaty into force. helped to set the stage for the global Other locations have been frozen 1 Scientific American, “Bomb Carbon” Has Been Found moratorium underpinned by the in time. At the Nevada National in Deep-Ocean Creatures, May 15, 2019. https://www. scientificamerican.com/article/bomb-carbon-has-been- CTBT since 1996. Fewer than a dozen Security Site in the United States, found-in-deep-ocean-creatures/
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 25 The educational expedition to visit the former Semipalatinsk nuclear testing site organized by the Center for International Security and Policy (Kazakhstan). Photo: Oleg Butenko Living with the Nuclear Tests: the Semipalatinsk Story
BY TOGZHAN KASSENOVA
The now-closed nuclear meat and producing fresh milk, Thirty years since test site of Semipalatinsk became contaminated with radiation. the last nuclear test in Kazakhstan stands as a For forty years, between 1949 and at the Semipalatinsk symbol of the lasting pain of 1989, the Soviet military tested more than 450 nuclear bombs – in Nuclear Test site, worldwide nuclear testing. the atmosphere and underground there is still no clear, - at the Semipalatinsk test site comprehensive picture In the late 1940s, the Soviet with devastating consequences leaders rushed to develop nuclear for the land and the people.1 of the total impact of weapons, determined to catch nuclear tests on locals’ up with the United States. To test TRAUMA health. them, they chose the Semipalat- The impact of nuclear tests on insk region in the northeast part people was both immediate with of then Soviet Kazakhstan. injuries and disruption during the tests and long-term when serious described a scene of confusion: “Why? For military and nuclear scientists, health issues started manifesting Where? Neither the soldiers nor the this was a perfect piece of land – flat themselves. What it felt like to live in shocked locals knew. Panic reigned in steppes (grassland similar to a the vicinity of nuclear explosions? the steppe; bewildered people waited prairie), access to river and construc- The story of the Soviet thermo- for something terrible to happen.”3 tion material – wood, sand, and nuclear breakthrough and the The thermonuclear test resulted in stone. Away from major cities and far test of Andrei Sakharov’s famous radioactive contamination of more from major transportation hubs. But “Sloika” (“layer cake”) device than 1 roentgen up to 400 kilometers distance proved relative once nuclear in 1953 is a telling example. away from the site; the residents tests began in 1949. Residents of in nearby villages who could not Semipalatinsk, a relatively large city Until the last moment, nobody evacuate received 10-40 roentgen.4 120 kilometers away, and especially gave any thought that the radioac- Whether the massive evacuation the locals in rural settlements close tive fallout from such a powerful protected the locals remained an to the testing site, suffered firsthand explosion would spread beyond the open question with some experts the horrors of nuclear tests. testing site. In a rush, Sakharov and saying that the fallout occurred in What appeared as harsh and barren others made calculations about the the zone where people waited.5 steppe to Soviet military planners was fallout. They concluded that everyone A follow up thermonuclear test, in to Kazakhs treasured ancestral land. within the zone where radiation 1955, brought similar disruption to Kazakhs feel a deep affinity for their could exceed 200 roentgen had to the life of locals. A medical nurse land and place of birth, and the Semi- be evacuated. They also concluded from a village 100 kilometers away palatinsk region holds a special place that a dose of 100 roentgen would from the epicenter, described: “On in the Kazakh national consciousness. injure children and people of fragile the eve of the test, the military came It was a cradle to Kazakh literature. health. There were two choices: to to our village and gave instructions. Some of Kazakhstan’s most famous delay the test by months and prepare In the morning, after breakfast writers, poets, composers, and for a different method of the explo- […] we walked all sick [patients intellectuals were born there. sion – from a plane instead of from staying at the hospital] outside, a tower, or evacuate the locals.2 put them face down to the ground Before the Soviet military arrived, and covered with bed sheets.”6 Kazakh shepherds roamed the A massive evacuation operation When a bomb with a yield of 1.6 mega- generous pastures that provided began. Hundreds of Army trucks drove tons was dropped from a plane, in food for their cattle. Soon, the land thousands of locals away from their Semipalatinsk, 120 kilometers away, that prided itself on raising livestock, homes and hundreds of thousands of at the city’s main meat-processing feeding the country with the best livestock to safer areas. One witness factory, industrial lights shattered
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 27 Stronger Than Death memorial for victims of the nuclear tests. It depicts a mother covering her child from a bomb. Semey (former Semipalatinsk), Kazakhstan. Photo: Togzhan Kassenova
and fell into ground beef.7 Many amounts of radioactivity lost the sense locals suffered injuries, including of smell and taste. They suffered from broken bones. In a hospital, in a changes to their noses, ears, and women’s ward, half a dozen people throats. The neurological patholo- were injured by a crashed ceiling. A gies made people tired and caused three-year-old girl died when a bomb headaches and dizziness. Many shelter where she was hiding with locals were losing their swallowing her parents collapsed.8 Five soldiers reflex – the body’s essential defense were injured during the test, and one mechanism against choking on food.10 died. They were waiting in trenches 36 After the closure of the test site and kilometers away from the ground zero Kazakhstan gaining independence when the soil collapsed on them.9 in 1991, Kazakhstan’s scientists These are just two examples from together with their international a history of 400+ tests. People were colleagues carried out studies that forced to live with earth shaking added new information to the picture. beneath them, and walls in their house getting cracks. Above all, they were In 1998, the experts from the Kazakh forced to live in the state of fear of the Scientific Research Institution for unknown, facing the invisible danger Radiation Medicine and Ecology that started ruining their health. re-examined clinical data collected by the special medical facility established The specialists found that 75 percent HEALTH CONSEQUENCES in Semipalatinsk to monitor locals’ of people examined suffered from Thirty years since the last nuclear test health (the facility was disguised thyroid pathology.12 Another study at the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test as an anti-brucellosis clinic). Their conducted by a joint team of US, site, there is still no clear, compre- report noted that excess cancer Kazakh, and Russian specialists hensive picture of the total impact rates were on the rise in affected found that the occurrence of thyroid of nuclear tests on locals’ health. areas up to 1970, and a post-1970 nodules was linked with external and Few documents from the past avail- internal exposure to radiation.13 able to scholars paint a picture of The best way to honor Kazakh and Japanese scientists conflicting narratives. Thus, for the Semipalatinsk studied the mental toll of nuclear example, the Institute of Biophysics in testing and concluded that indi- Moscow, controlled by the Soviet mili- region and its people viduals who experienced nuclear tary, would admit the negative impact is for the international tests at Semipalatinsk exhibited of nuclear tests on the local popula- community never to psychological symptoms similar to tion in secret reports, but in its official hibakusha—survivors of 1945 nuclear statements, the military would insist allow another nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.14 that locals’ health problems stemmed tragedy to happen. from poor diet and living conditions. The Semipalatinsk tragedy will remain decrease was followed by a second an open wound for Kazakhstan for In the late 1950s, Kazakhstan’s scien- increase in the late 1980s. The data decades to come.15 But the people tists had a rare opportunity to conduct revealed an initial peak in reports of in the Semipalatinsk region do not clinical studies of their own. For three cancer of esophagus, stomach, and want to be seen merely as victims. years, the scientists from the Institute liver, followed by a second peak of They wish for their loss and pain to of Regional Pathology, part of Kazakh- lung, breast, and thyroid cancers.11 be acknowledged, but they do not stan’s Academy of Sciences, painstak- Several studies confirm the impact want to be defined by the horrors ingly examined thousands of people, of radiation on the thyroid gland in of the past. The best way to honor going from one village to another. the Semipalatinsk region. In one the Semipalatinsk region and its The clinical data they collected is of them, the specialists examined people is for the international the most detailed account available 1,100 people to investigate how the community never to allow another to scholars. The scientists from combined effect of ionizing radiation nuclear tragedy to happen. the Institute of Regional Pathology and iodine deficiency contributed to recorded that blood did not circulate pathologies of the thyroid gland. properly in people’s brains. Those who were exposed long-term to high
28 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 1 “The Soviet Nuclear Testing Programme,” CTBTO, https://www.ctbto.org/nuclear-testing/ the-effects-of-nuclear-testing/the-soviet- unionsnuclear-testing-programme/.
2 Andrei Sakharov, Memoirs, Knopf Doubleday, 1992, p. 172.
3 “Musa Sharipov, Almaty,” in Kairat Kabdrakhmanov, 470 Bomb v Serdtsce Kazakhstana, Almaty, 1994, p. 97.
4 V. N. Mikhailov, ed., Yadernye Ispytaniya SSSR, Russian Federal Nuclear Center, Sarov, 1997, Volume 1, Chapter 5 “Ispytaniya pervyh termoyadernyh vzryvov RDS-6s i RDS-37,” p. 221.
5 Boris Gusev, interview, film documentary Where the Wind Blew (director – Andre Singer), 2017.
6 Witness account by Shalaeva S. T. in Keshrim Boztayev, 29 Avgusta, Atamura, Almaty, 1998, p. 27.
7 G. F. Zorin, “I Vse Zhe…Rabota i Zhizn’ Byli Interesnymi [And Still…Work and Life…Were Interesting]” in Rossiya Delaet Sama [Russia Does It Herself], Part 3, Sergei Davydov, ed., Istoriya Atomnogo Proekta [History of Atomic Project], Issue 4, p. 216; Sakharov, Memoirs, 1992, p. 192.
8 Sakharov, Memoirs, p. 192; V. A. Logachev, ed., Yadernye Ispytaniya SSSR: Sovremennoe Radioekologicheskoe Sostoyanie Poligonov [Nuclear Tests of the USSR: Current Radio-Ecological State of Polygons], Moscow, Izdat, 2002, p. 62.
9 V. A. Logachev, ed., Yadernye Ispytaniya SSSR: Sovremennoe Radioekologicheskoe Sostoyanie Poligonov [Nuclear Tests of the USSR: Current Radio-Ecological State of Polygons], Moscow, Izdat, 2002, p. 62.
10 Khairushev E. A., Peisakh S. A., eds., Radioaktivnost’ Vneshnei Sredy i Sostoyanie Zdorov’ya Naseleniya i Selskohozyaistvennyh Zhivotnyh v Tscentral’nom Kazakhstane, Volume 3, Institute of Regional Pathology, Almaty, 1961.
11 B.I. Gusev, R.I. Rosenson, Z.N. Abylkassimova, “The Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site: A First Analysis of Solid Cancer Incidence (Selected Sites) due to Test- Related Radiation,” Radiation and Environmental Biophysics 37, October 1998, p. 209.
12 L. Danyarova, “Combined effect of the environmental factors as ionizing radiation and a chronic iodine deficiency on the thyroid gland and the immune condition,” International Thyroid Conference, September 2010, https://inis.iaea.org/ search/searchsinglerecord.aspx?recordsFor=Singl eRecord&RN=43054744.
13 “Thyroid Disease Near Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site, Kazakhstan,” National Cancer Institute Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics,” http://dceg. cancer.gov/research/who-we-study/cohorts/ semipalatinsk-nuclear-test-site-kazakhstan.
14 Noriyuki Kawano, Kyoko Hirabayashi, Masatsugu Matsuo, Yasuyuki Taooka, Takashi Hiraoka, Kazbek N. Apsalikov, Talgat Moldagaliev, Masaharu Hoshi, “Human Suffering Effects of Nuclear Tests at Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan: Established On the Basis of Questionnaire Surveys,” Journal of Radiation Research, Volume 47, 2006, p. A209-217.
15 Togzhan Kassenova, “Humans of the Polygon: Travel Notes from the Land of Abai. Karaul. Znamenka (Kokentau), Sarzhal,” Voices on Central Asia, 2019, https://voicesoncentralasia.org/humans-of-the- polygon-travel-notes-from-the-land-of-abai- karaul-znamenka-kokentau-sarzhal/.
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 29 A team of technicians working to fix the VSAT antenna. In the background an operator Giving a second life is installing the GPS receiver. to Senegal's auxiliary seismic station
BY MAPATHÉ NDIAYE
Of the 120 auxiliary seismic Babate (BBTS) is a station in the Research of the Ministry of Research monitoring stations agreed CTBTO International Monitoring of Senegal, in collaboration with the under the Comprehensive System (IMS) auxiliary seismic CTBTO, decided to repair BBTS. A network in Senegal, with the Treaty new team with a new focal point and a Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty code AS097. The installation of BBTS new station operator was created. The to help verify compliance, was completed in December 2006 with station went through several steps to 108 are now certified. certification in February 2007. From restore its capability. This article is a This is the story of one 2007 to 2008, the station was actively review of the main steps performed of them. managed by the Institute of Research to give a second life to BBTS. for Development (IRD). After 2008, BBTS suffered from IRD activities The history of BBTS began in early being scaled back and was progres- 2001 when the first site survey was sively abandoned. This resulted in the performed to verify if the site chosen station being out of service for several under the Treaty was suitable for years. In 2014, the General Direction of acquiring high quality seismic data
30 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 for the IMS. According to the Treaty, a new team was set up to restore the the seismometer. For precautions, we BBTS was to have been located inside station, working hand in hand with got assistance from a Guralp specialist the Geophysical Observatory, in the the CTBTO to meet the challenge. who helped us change, configure IRD Research Center, in the City In October 2015 an initial repair and test the new seismometers. On of Mbour with the great advantage mission was organized consisting 29 January 2018, months since our of being operated by the IRD. of CTBTO staff and technicians from challenge started, AS097 was back the Senegalese Ministry of Research, to life and in good condition. We took Unfortunately, seismic background scientists and the director of research. advantage of Global Communication noise from industrial and other activi- This first mission repaired the Global Infrastructure (GCI3) migration to ties in Mbour, which is quite a large Communication Infrastructure (GCI) setup a remote and redundant access city, was too high and one of Senegal’s link, the Central Recording Facility to BBTS for full time monitoring to busy main national roads borders the (CRF) equipment and configured the make sure AS097 is roadworthy. IRD Center. This made the Treaty site, station. It was successful in taking despite all the advantages linked to its big steps in a single day mission, EDITORIAL NOTE: location, not suitable for AS097 instal- a real motivation for everybody. Since August 2019, AS097 at Babate has lation. Alternate sites had therefore to faced new technical challenges. Neverthe- less, as of June 2020 it was continuing to be found. Potential replacement sites Some weeks later, in November 2015, transmit data to the IDC in Vienna. were selected not too far from the IRD we noted that there was a data trans- Research Center at Wady Tabakaly mission failure every night, right after and Babate, 144 km and 75 km away sunset. After investigation, we under- from Mbour. Site surveys showed that stood that the problem came from background noise at the two sites batteries that had lost their capacity was almost identical, low and within after the five years break. The battery the acceptable range. Babate was bank therefore had to be changed. finally selected because it was closer After investigating the local market for to the IRD Centre. This explains the several months and not finding good local name BBTS chosen for AS097. quality batteries to meet our technical Changing the old specifications, we finally decided to borehole seismometer Construction and installation of AS097 import them. Once the power supply started in February 2004 and took two problem was fixed, we were proud to years. All the steps were completed see AS097 running again and sending on time except for installation of the satisfactory data to the CTBTO’s seismic equipment, which was post- International Data Centre (IDC). poned due to technical problems from a borehole that was not waterproof. In October 2016 we ran a routine It took almost a year to resolve this calibration. The results showed some issue by drilling a second borehole. problems on the sensor vertical From February 2007, the site was component BH2 (component number tested and certified and began 3 of the borehole sensor). In fact, the providing accurate and reliable data. amplitude of the signal was twice It was regularly maintained and moni- as high on BH1 (component No 1 of tored by the IRD. But after five years, the borehole sensor) than BH2. At a in April 2012, BBTS was progressively first sight, we suspected the problem facing issues. IRD decreased its coming from digitizer settings. But activities and the station suffered from further verifications convinced us a lack of manpower. In January 2013 that both the sensor and the digitizer the station was completely abandoned were faulty. Our first option was to and no data was received from AS097 send the sensor for repair but we between May 2012 and August 2015. finally decided to change the sensor. A lot of paperwork was needed Giving AS097 a second life to became regarding custom clearance but a major objective of the General we stayed motivated until we got Direction of Research (DGR) of the our new seismometer delivered. Ministry of Research of Senegal and We planned a final mission to change
CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 31 Global 1 5 Scholar Art Campaign organised 2 by CTBTO and Paz y Cooperación
3 6
4 7
Talented young artists from all around promote the work of the CTBTO. the world contributed to the campaign, Over 1000 works of art were received entitled “For a safer world – join forces from 25 countries: Austria, Azerbaijan, with the CTBTO”, which was launched on Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, 29 August 2018 on the International Day Bulgaria, Cameroon, China, Cyprus, against Nuclear Tests (IDANT). Together Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, with our Madrid-based partner, Paz y Egypt, Iran, Kenya, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Cooperación, we made a global call to Mexico, Montenegro, Namibia, New children from around the world to submit Zealand, Peru, Russia, Seychelles, a drawing or painting that would increase Spain and the United Kingdom. An public awareness of the vital goal of award ceremony was held on 27 1 Plamena Krasimirova Krasteva, age 11 (Bulgaria) putting an end to nuclear explosions and June 2019 during the CTBTO Science 2 Ermina Kalogirou, age 16 (Cyprus) working together for a safer world. We and Technology 2019 Conference at 3 Islam Zinaenur, age 14 (Kazakhstan)
4 Fatemeh Yavarzadeh, age 10 (Iran) also believed that the many scientific and Vienna’s historic Hofburg Palace.
5 Mahmoud Mostafa Negm, age 10 (Egypt) civil applications of the data collected by A virtual art gallery with more than 6 Jordan Titus, age 15 (Namibia) the CTBTO's global verification system 200 artworks from the campaign is 7 Alvaro Cobos Palacino, age 6 (Spain) could inspire younger generations to available in the CTBTO Flickr album.
32 CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 8 Yampier Abel Chilcon Saboya and Mary Ann Arizaga Saldarriaga, age 16 (Peru)
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Gill Tudor Chief of Public Information
CTBTO EDITORIAL TEAM: Gill Tudor, Francesca Giovannini, Jenny Nielsen
EDITORIAL BOARD: Sabine Bauer, Marion Berrens, Mohammad Hassan Daryaei, Francesca Giovannini, Patrick Grenard, Nurcan Meral Ozel, Vadim Smirnov, Tammy Taylor, PLEASE VISIT CTBTO.ORG Xiaoning Wang YOUR RESOURCE FOR STOPPING NUCLEAR TESTING PUBLISHED BY: PREPARED, COORDINATED AND EDITED BY: Public Information Jenny Nielsen FOR THE ELECTRONIC VERSION OF THE CTBTO Preparatory Commission for the SPECTRUM PLEASE VISIT THE PUBLICATIONS Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban LAYOUT AND DESIGN: SECTION AT WWW.CTBTO.ORG Treaty Organization (CTBTO) Michael Balgavy Vienna International Centre DISCLAIMER: P.O. Box 1200 DISTRIBUTION: The views expressed in articles by external 1400 Vienna, Austria Pablo Melhorn contributors do not necessarily reflect the positions and policies of the CTBTO Preparatory Commission. T +43 1 26030 6451 Photographs and illustrations are at the courtesy The boundaries and presentation of material on F +43 1 26030 5823 of the authors and the Provisional Technical maps do not imply the expression of any opinion E [email protected] Secretariat, unless otherwise indicated by photo on the part of the Provisional Technical Secretariat WWW ctbto.org credits. concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or its authorities, or concerning the © 2020 CTBTO Preparatory Commission Printed in Austria, July 2020 delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. CTBTO Spectrum – ISSN: 1680-533X CTBTO.ORG CTBTO SPECTRUM 25/2020 II