Leading The Way With CDMA
Adam Gould CTO, CDMA VP Technology Management and Strategy Nokia Mobile Phones Business Group 27 May 2004 1 © NOKIA Agenda • CDMA Market Outlook • CDMA Technology Evolution • Nokia in CDMA • Summary
2 © NOKIA CDMA Market Outlook
3 © NOKIA Worldwide CDMA subscriptions passed the 200m milestone in 1Q04
Europe & Russia North America 83,000,000 3,000,000
Africa & Middle Asia-Pacific East 85,000,000 Caribbean & Latin America 30,000,000
Subscriptions at the end of March 2004
Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. 4 © NOKIA Global CDMA subscription base projected to increase steadily during the next 5 years 500 Cumulative CDMA subscriptions (EOY, millions)
400
300 Global Europe & Africa Latin America 200 North America China APAC 100
0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Nokia, March 2004
5 © NOKIA LSA CDMA Almost 2nd Largest Region GLOBAL CDMA 1Q04 Subscriptions 202m N. America CDMA Verizon 37m China CDMA 1Q04 18% 1Q04 Korea CDMA Subscriptions 83m China Unicom 22m 11% Subscriptions 22m 1Q04 Verizon, US 37m 45% SK Telecom 18m China Unicom 22m 100% Subscriptions 35m Sprint, US 18m 22% SK Telecom 18m 53% Alltel, US 7m 9% 9% Sprint 18m KT Freetel 11m 32% Bell Canada, CA 3m 4% Rest of APAC LG Telecom 5m 15% 9% KDDI 17m CDMA 1Q04 Japan CDMA LSA CDMA 8% Subscriptions 11m 1Q04 1Q04 Reliance, IN 6m 57% Subscriptions 17m Subscriptions 32m Tata, IN 1m 7% KDDI 17m 100% Vivo, BR 15m 45% Hutchison/CAT, TH 1m Telcel, VE 3m 8% 5% Telefonica, MX 2m 7% Unefon, MX 1m 4% Iusacell, MX 1m 3% (Percentages indicate the operators’s share of global / regional CDMA subs base)
Source: Nokia, May 2004
6 © NOKIA 8 of CDMA’s Largest Operators in LSA
Top 10 - average subs base 15m no 11-20 – average subs base 1.5m Rest – fragmented 40 100%
Subs 4Q03 90% 35 Subs 1Q04 80% 30 70% global
25 of (m) 60%
20 50%
40% 15 30% 10 20% Subscriptions 5 10% Accumulated share 0 0% , IN , GT , BR , VE , CL , PE , KR , CA , MX , MX , MX CTI, AR Tata ViVo KDDI, JP Alltel, US Telus Telcel Sprint, US Freetel Sercom Unefon Reliance, IN Iusacell Wireless, US China Unicom Smartcom Telefonica Telefonica US Cellular, LG Telecom, KR SK Telecom, KR Bell Canada, CA Hutchison / CAT, TH Verizon
Source: Nokia, May 2004 Korea Telecom 7 © NOKIA • Current state: Brazil • 15m CDMA subscriptions • AMPS still required
• Key trends going forward: • Services uptake high • MMS now launched • WAP evolution continues • Consolidation effect positive • New Brand (Vivo) • Unified services • National programs • Penetration growth at low- end • Growth elsewhere in LTA as well
8 © NOKIA CDMA Market Outlook 2004
• CDMA will continue to gain global share, growing faster than total • Global CDMA market volume is expected to increase by >20% YoY in 2004. • Growth is fuelled by: • Rapid subscriber up-take in developing markets (China, India, Brazil) • Increasing renewal rates in the more mature, developed economies.
9 © NOKIA Evolution of CDMA
10 © NOKIA Explosion of Technologies in CDMA • Air Interface Evolution • VMR • H.264 Advanced Video Codec • IPv6 • IMS • Java
11 © NOKIA Evolution to High Speed Data Standards 1xEV-DV CDMA2000 CDMA2000 cdma2000 Revision C Revision D Revision B cdma2000 - Minor changes - Voice and Data - 3.1 Mbps FL Revision A -3.1 Mbps FL - 1.8 Mbps cdma2000 - Simultaneus Voice -307 kbps RL and Data Revision 0 - 307kbps PS - 2x Voice Capacity - 153kbps PS
IS-95B - 64kbps - Improved SHO IS-856 IS-856 IS-95A 1xEV-DO 1xEV-DO - 1st Step - No Voice - 14.4kbps CS Revision A - 2.4Mbps FL - 3.1 Mbps FL - 153 Kbps RL - 1.8 Mbps RL
1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
12 © NOKIA LSA Data Deployment Competitiveness
IS-2000 IS-2000 Rev 0 DV Rev C DV Rev D
IS-856 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A
GSM GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA
2003 2004 2005 2006
CDMA Has a Highly Competitive Evolution Path!
13 © NOKIA What’s Next for CDMA Air Interface Standards?
P-P VoIP on DV and DO Higher speed FL
Smart Antennas 4G
Capacity Enhancements
14 © NOKIA Evolution of Voice Services in CDMA
Paradigm Shift WidebandWideband speech speech VMR-WB codingcoding offers offers a a 2003 quantumquantum leap leapinin qualityquality
Capacity Quest Increasing Quality
SMV EVRC QCELP13 2001 1995 1994
Quality Quest IS-96A 1993 Increasing Data Rate
15 © NOKIA VMR-WB at Glance Variable Multirate Wideband Codec
A paradigm shift in Able to trade off voice and audio quality with quality capacity
1st globally Works both in VoIP interoperable & circuit-switched codec
Extendable to music
16 © NOKIA H.264 Advanced Video Codec (AVC) The new joint ITU/MPEG-4 video coding standard
Superior Robust in Performance wireless error environments
Video Call 2x Network rates 2-3x HQ Capacity voice calls
½ the storage, Globally handset and Interoperable server Optimal video experience over 1x 17 © NOKIA IPv6 technology enables new mobile services Peer-to-peer Push services services Push services
Network Gaming
Always On Mobility Presence Global Reachability Seamless Mobility 18 © NOKIA IP Multimedia Subsystem IMS IMS is a standardized Application Servers (Operator & 3rd Party) SIP-based framework The IP Multimedia Subsystem for IP communications Presence Location Messaging Group PTT Gaming … • Terminal-to-terminal (IMS) providesServer centralizedServer Server Server Server Server Server connections for all typesregistration, session control and of IP-based services • Across operator charging mechanisms for operators networks and application developers. • Independent of the Control Subscriber access technology Server Services DB
IMS Supports Multiple Radio Access Networks SIP (1x, GSM, WCDMA…)
Streaming videoPeter: from 00:00:00 Bill: Invite Thomas: 00:00:00 player SIP SIP
> Peter: hey, Chat look what just passed by! Push to Game data Stream Quit IP Streaming video IP Connection
IMS Supports Multiple Packet Core Networks (1x, GPRS…) 19 © NOKIA IPv6, VoIP and IMS services • VoIP and real time IMS services • Require always-on data connections with mobility. • With Mobile IPv4, VoIP quality falls dramatically during handoffs due to triangle routing • IPv6 and Mobile IPv6 solve this problem • Mobile IPv6 supports route optimization – reduces round- trip time. • Fast handoffs reduce context transfer delays. • Allows seamless inter-access technology handoffs of VoIP and data sessions – e.g. WLAN to CDMA
IPv6, Mobile IPv6 and Fast handoffs are necessary for VoIP services
20 © NOKIA Java™ is the leading mobile application development environment
• Over 85 mobile operators worldwide have
deployed Java™ download services* (December 2003)
36 • Over 200 million Java™ enabled handsets 39
on market already by beginning 2004* 17 14 8 10 • Over 200 Java™ handset models by 27 mobile device vendors already on the market* Mar03 Dec03 Mar03 Dec03 Mar03 Dec03 Americas EMEA APAC & China • Over 3 million Java developers worldwide*
Global mobile downloads: €2.7 Billion in 2003 2003: ~10 Million Java downloads globally / month ** 2004: ~15 Million Java downloads globally / month **
Source: * Sun Microsystems ** Nokia estimate 21 © NOKIA But Growth in CDMA Still Needs…
Reduction of Fragmentation • Adding Cost Competition with • Fewer phone models GSM Demands These Steps
Interoperability • Within CDMA • Between CDMA and GSM
Roaming • No technical issues
22 © NOKIA Nokia in CDMA
23 © NOKIA Nokia – Committed to Lead with CDMA
• 13 year history of dedicated CDMA research
• Over 40 million CDMA handsets and over 35 models produced
• Leading edge chipset development
• Pioneering development in next generation technologies
• Major standards influencer and contributor
• Leading role in shaping the direction of the CDMA industry
24 © NOKIA Pace Continuously Increasing: Customer Base Expansion in 2003
In 2003, Nokia sold CDMA phones to 65 operators in 25 countries
25 © NOKIA Nokia Product Range Expansion High-end / Symbian
Well 1x, GPS and Phone performing category expansion CDMA engine
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
26 © NOKIA Nokia’s First’s in CDMA Technology
World’s First 1xEV-DV High-Speed Data Call World’s First Dual-Stack IPv6/IPv4 CDMA handset
Variable Rate Multimode Wideband Speech Codec H.264 Advanced Video Codec CDMA-GSM MMS Connectivity IMS in CDMA TI/ST Chipset Alternative Many more to come!
27 © NOKIA Summary
CDMA is a big business
And an even bigger opportunity!
28 © NOKIA 29 © NOKIA