Economists see inflation reaching 5% in 2021 ByTYRONE JASPER C. PIAD MARCH 8, 2021

AFTER consumer price growth reached two-year highs, economists see inflation going beyond the government target and reaching 5 percent this year due to low base effects and elevated commodity prices.

lead to higher year-on-year headline inflation locally, even into 5 percent levels, as well as worldwide, in“For view the ofcoming the anniversary months, much of the lower Covid-19 inflation lockdowns denominator/base (starting March-April) effects would that also sharply mathematically reduced

demand,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said. Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) Lead Economist Emilio Neri Jr., for his part, said that inflation may exceed 5 percent by April.

It will likely remain at that level for several months before easing in the fourth quarter, he added.

Neri, who maintained a full-year inflation forecast of 4.3 percent for 2021, attributed the inflationary pressures to high oil and pork prices.

nwhile, it may take the swine industry some time to address the ASF (African“Oil prices Swine will Fever)likely remain problem elevated since supply given the expected increase in demand amid the distribution of vaccines,” he explained. “Mea problems usually last for many months.” Ricafort said inflation could still be offset with the increase in crop supply given the expected planting and harvest seasons with the onset of summer, bringing some food prices down after the onslaught of typhoons in November last year disrupted the stock of vegetables and other agricultural products.

In addition, the RCBC economist said the 60-day price ceiling on pork and chicken, along with the importation of the said meat, could also help mitigate inflationary pressure.

https://businessmirror.com.ph/2021/03/08/economists-see-inflation-reaching-5-in-2021/

Spanish ship ‘Elcano’ to visit the PH to re-enact world’s first circumnavigation 500 years ago

Published March 7, 2021, 11:26 AM by Roy Mabasa Just in time for the Philippine Quincentennial celebration, the Spanish training ship Juan Sebastián Elcano will arrive in the country to re-enact one of the most significant achievements in the history of mankind – the first circumnavigation of the world.

(Embassy of Spain in the Philippines FACEBOOK) The Philippine leg of the navigation is a key part of the tour around the world that the Spanish training ship is making to commemorate the Magallanes-Elcano expedition route that made circumnavigation possible for the first time ever around the globe, the Spanish Embassy said in a statement over the weekend.

According to the schedule, the commonly known “Elcano” will arrive in Guiuan (Eastern Samar) on March 16, 2021, in Suluan and Homonhon Islands until 18th March, and later in Cebu from March 20-22. These are the very places where the Spanish expedition made its first visual contact, landing and human encounter exactly on those exact dates 500 years ago.

“The space and time coincidence will help to better visualize the special feeling that the expeditioners felt when arriving and gazing at the beauty of this country and discovered the humanity of its people,” the Spanish Embassy said in the statement.

Built in 1928, the “Elcano” is a four-mast brig-schooner, with a length of 113 meters, and is the third highest ship in the world. This is the 10th time that Elcano will make a tour around the world.

The Spanish training ship is named after the Castillan explorer who joined the expedition of Ferdinand Magellan composed of five ships and 238 men that left Seville, Spain in September 1519 and reached the Philippine islands in 1521. After the death of Magellan in the Philippines, it was Elcano, in command of the ship Victoria, who concluded the first voyage around the world by returning to Spain three years later with ony 18 survivors left onboard.

https://mb.com.ph/2021/03/07/spanish-ship-elcano-to-visit-the-ph-to-re-enact-worlds-first- circumnavigation-500-years-ago/

Rights groups call for investigation into killings of Philippine activists

By Reuters Staff 3 MIN READ

MANILA (Reuters) - Human rights groups called on the Philippine government to investigate what they said was the use of “lethal force” during police raids on Sunday that left at least nine activists dead.

FILE PHOTO: Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte speaks at Villamor Air Base in Pasay, Metro Manila, Philippines, February 28, 2021. REUTERS/Eloisa Lopez/File Photo

The raids in four provinces south of Manila resulted in the death of an environmental activist as well as a coordinator of left-wing group Bagong Alyansang Makabayan, among others, and resulted in the arrest of four others, activist groups said.

“These raids appear to be part of a coordinated plan by the authorities to raid, arrest, and even kill activists in their homes and offices,” Human Rights Watch Deputy Asia Director Phil Robertson said in a statement.

These incidents, he said, were “clearly part of the government’s increasingly brutal counter-insurgency campaign.”

“The fundamental problem is (that) this campaign no longer makes any distinction between armed rebels and noncombatant activists, labour leaders, and rights defenders.”

The United Nations has warned in a report that “red-tagging”, or labelling people and groups as communists or terrorists, and incitement to violence have been rife in the Southeast Asian nation.

“The Philippines government should act now to investigate the use of lethal force in these raids, stop the mayhem and killings that has gone hand in hand with the practice of red-tagging,” Robertson said. Sunday’s raids, which human rights group Karapatan condemned, came two days after President Rodrigo Duterte ordered the police and military to “kill” communist rebels and “ignore human rights”.

“Nothing could be more apt than calling this day a ‘Bloody Sunday,’” Karapatan’s Cristina Palabay said. Lieutenant General Antonio Parlade, head of an anti-rebel task force, told Reuters the raids were “legitimate law enforcement operations”, and authorities acted on the basis of search warrants for possession of firearms and explosives.

“As usual these groups are so quick in assuming that the subjects were activists and that they were killed. If (the) motive was to kill them they should all be dead but there were those who did not resist arrest so they were collared,” Parlade told Reuters in a phone message.

Reporting by Karen Lema; Editing by Mark Heinrich

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-rights/rights-groups-call-for-investigation-into-killings- of-philippine-activists-idUSKBN2AZ0CE

Philippine govt helps districts that rid themselves from communist influence

By New Straits Times - March 7, 2021 @ 10:59am

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte holding a vial of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine during a ceremony at a military airbase in Manila. -AFP pic/ Presidential Photo Division (PPD)/King Rodrigues THE Philippine government has embarked on an ambitious community programme to provide 20 million pesos worth of projects to each barangay (administrative district) that rid themselves of communist influence from the New People's Army.

President Rodrigo Duterte kicked of the distribution, especially those in hinterlands, after a joint meeting with the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC) in Cagayan de Oro City, according to the Philstar.com.

A total of 822 barangays (administrative areas) has been picked to receive the development assistance from the NTF-ELCAC program, where a sum of has 19 billion pesos has been included in the 2021 budget.

In the meeting on Friday night, also attended by National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon Jr. and other cabinet members, Duterte called on the rebels fighting the government to lay down their arms and abandon their cause. https://www.nst.com.my/world/region/2021/03/671722/philippine-govt-helps-districts-rid-themselves- communist-influence

Romualdez vows swift Lower House concurrence to Duterte’s amnesty proclamations

Published March 7, 2021, 3:30 PM by Ben Rosario Concurrence to President Rodrigo Duterte’s grant of amnesty to four rebel groups has assured by the House of Representatives as leaders of the chamber underscored their support to the chief executive’s efforts to bring peace and stability in the country.

Majority Leader and Leyte Rep. Martin Romualdez said the Lower House will swiftly adopt four House resolutions concurring with presidential Proclamation Nos. 1090, 1091, 1092 and 1093 granting amnesty to members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), Moro National Liberation (MNLF), Rebolusyonaryong Partido ng Manggagawa ng Pilipinas/Revolutionary Proletarian Army/Alex Boncayao Brigade (RPMP-RPA-ABB) and the Communist Terrorist Group (CTG), respectively.

Issued on February 5 by Duterte, the four proclamation granted amnesty to members of the four rebel organizations that have committed crimes under the Revised Penal Code (RPC) or special penal laws in pursuit of their political beliefs.

Speaker Lord Allan Velasco and Minority Leader and Abang Lingkod partylist Rep. Joseph Stephen Paduano authored House Concurrent Resolutions No. 12, 13, 14 and 15 to declare the Lower Chamber’s concurrence to the presidential proclamations. The four measures have been referred to the Committees on Justice and on National Defense.

“We are one with President Rody Duterte’s efforts to attain peace and reconciliation in the country. We recognize this crucial need to accept the request of former combatants for amnesty so we could further stabilize our country and move towards healing, reconciliation, and reintegration,” Romualdez said.

“We commit that the House of Representatives, under the leadership of Speaker Lord Allan Velasco, will work towards the timely adoption of these amnesty resolutions in line with the government’s peace program,” Romualdez, chair of the House Committee on Rules, added.

Romualdez said Section 19, Article VII of the 1987 Constitution allows the President to grant amnesty with the concurrence of a majority of all the Members of the Congress.

The presidential amnesty will extinguish any criminal liability for acts committed in pursuit of political beliefs, without prejudice to the grantee’s civil liability for injuries or damages caused to private persons whose right to be indemnified is fully recognized herein. It will also restore the grantee’s civil or political rights suspended or lost by virtue of criminal conviction.

“At a difficult time like this, promoting an atmosphere conducive to the attainment of a just, comprehensive and enduring equanimity is a must as the government also works towards improving basic social services and progress,” said Romualdez, a lawyer and the president of the Lakas–Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-CMD) and the Philippine Constitution Association (Philconsa).

However, the Leyte lawmaker said the amnesty will not cover not cover kidnap for ransom, massacre, rape, terrorism and other crimes committed against chastity as defined in the RPC as amended; crimes committed for personal ends and violation of RA No. 9165 or the Comprehensive Dangerous Act of 2002.

Also not covered by the presidential absolution are grave violations of the Geneva Convention of 1949. and those identified by the United Nations as crimes that can never be amnestied such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, torture, enforced disappearances and other gross violations of human rights. https://mb.com.ph/2021/03/07/romualdez-vows-swift-lower-house-concurrence-to-dutertes-amnesty- proclamations/

98 former NPA rebels pledge allegiance to gov’t

Published March 7, 2021, 11:45 AM by Tara Yap ILOILO CITY – Ninety-eight former New People’s Army (NPA) rebels have pledged allegiance to the government in Panay Island and Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Police Gen. Debold Sinas has urged them to support the national government’s fight against communist insurgency.

Sinas told them during their pledge of allegiance ceremony in Oton, Iloilo that the government is “always ready to accept and help them even though they once committed a mistake to the government.” They are the latest to withdraw support from the Communist Party of the Philippines and took their oath of allegiance before the Western Visayas Regional Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (Western Visayas RTF- ELCAC).

The 98 surrenderers – 57 from Tapaz, Capiz and 41 from Calino, Iloilo – are covered by the program dubbed “Akap Kapatid” which Police Brig. Gen. Rolando Miranda, Police Regional Office 6 (Western Visayas) director, said is a psycho-social program that aims to prepare former rebels for reintegration to society. “It also aims to change their belief and build their confidence towards the government,” added Miranda.

https://mb.com.ph/2021/03/07/98-former-npa-rebels-pledge-allegiance-to-govt/

Technology key to China’s vision for the future as a world leading power

• Ambitious road map unveiled at National People’s Congress to transform the country by 2035 • Strategy presented along with five-year plan with focus on encouraging innovation and technological breakthroughs

Jun Mai in Beijing Published: 6:00am, 6 Mar, 2021 Why you can trust SCMP

China has for the first time unveiled an ambitious road map for its plans to transform into a world- leading power by 2035.

Technology innovation and scientific research are key to the Vision 2035 development strategy, unveiled soon after Premier Li Keqiang delivered the annual government work report

on Friday, along with the next five-year plan.

The strategy outlines how China intends to become a leading global innovation engine, catch up to the average income level of developed countries, and display world class strengths in economy, global governance and soft power, as well as green development.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3124316/technology-key-chinas-vision-future- world-leading-power

China at least 30 years away from becoming manufacturing 'great power': former minister

By Reuters Staff 3 MIN READ

BEIJING (Reuters) - China is at least 30 years away from becoming a manufacturing nation of “great power”, a former industry minister said on Sunday, despite boasting the world’s most complete industrial supply chains.

In recent years, China has become the world’s top manufacturing nation, accounting for over a third of global output, driven by domestic demand to produce everything from motor vehicles to industrial machinery. But its industries’ heavy dependence on U.S. high-tech products such as semiconductors constituted a strategic weakness.

“Basic capabilities are still weak, core technologies are in the hands of others, and the risk of ‘being hit in the throat’ and having ‘a slipped bike chain’ has significantly increased,” said Miao Wei, who was Minister of Industry and Information Technology for a decade before stepping down last year.

As the Chinese economy pivots towards a services-based model and polluting smoke-stack factories are mothballed, manufacturing output as a share of the economy has declined. In 2020, manufacturing accounted for slightly over a quarter of gross domestic product, the lowest since 2012.

“The ratio of manufacturing output to GDP has been declining too early and too quickly, which not only weighs on economic growth and affects employment, but also brings security loopholes to our industries and diminishes our economy’s ability to withstand risks, and its global competitiveness,” said Miao, now a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top advisory body to the government. President Xi Jinping said in November that innovation in the manufacturing industry is far from adequate, and firms need to tackle “bottleneck” technologies to become fully innovative.

“China’s manufacturing industry has made great achievements in recent years, but the situation of being ‘big but not strong’ and ‘comprehensive but not good’ has not been fundamentally changed,” Miao said in a speech to CPPCC delegates at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament-manufacturing/china-at-least-30-years-away- from-becoming-manufacturing-great-power-former-minister-idUSKBN2AZ04V

China criticizes US for advocating 'pseudo- multilateralism'

TEHRAN, Mar. 07 (MNA) – Selective multilateralism is basically pseudo-multilateralism advocated by Americans who have been shouting about returning to multilateralism but are actually still sticking to unilateralism in nature, Chinese Diplomat noted.

The real definition of multilateralism is respecting the UN Charter, promoting the democratization of international relations, and not playing with group politics or selective multilateralism, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized on Sunday, Global Times reported.

Multilateralism has always been China's firm choice, which has never changed with the times or events. The solution for all problems and challenges in the world lies in true multilateralism, Wang said.

China believes that true multilateralism means abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, safeguarding the international system with the UN at its core, and promoting the democratization of international relations.

Multilateralism must insist on openness and inclusiveness, not exclude others, and insist on equal consultation, not solipsism, Wang said, noting that China believes multilateralism should be a banner, not a disguise, and should be a belief, not just rhetoric.

Wang revealed that the so-called multilateralism within a small circle is merely group politics, and multilateralism with a principle of national priority is unilateral thinking.

Selective multilateralism is also not true multilateralism, he stressed.

China raising its own definition of multilateralism can be seen as a move aimed at defending or fighting for the right to define multilateralism in the international community. It is important to tell the world how we perceive and practice multilateralism and what our goal is, Xin Qiang, a deputy director of the Center for US Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Sunday.

So-called "multilateralism within a certain group" and "selective multilateralism" is basically pseudo- multilateralism advocated by countries such as the US, which has been shouting about returning to multilateralism but is actually still sticking to unilateralism in nature, he said.

Contrary to the US, which regards multilateralism as a tool and leverage for itself to reshape its image as a global leader and creator of the international order, further serving its own "national interests first" policy, China is problems-oriented in promoting multilateralism, Sun Chenghao, an assistant research professor with the Institute of America Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times on Sunday.

Taking the fight against COVID-19 as an example, China has carried out vaccine cooperation with more than 10 countries, and more than 100,000 volunteers of more than 100 nationalities have participated in the drive. Seventeen Chinese vaccines have entered clinical trials, and more than 60 countries have authorized the use of Chinese vaccines.

China has joined the COVAX campaign led by the WHO and promised to provide the first batch of 10 million doses of vaccine to developing countries for urgent use. China has already provided free vaccine assistance to 69 developing countries in urgent need while exporting vaccines to 43 countries according to Wang Yi.

Meanwhile, the US wrongly believes its rejoining of international organizations and its re-joining of hands with its allies is multilateralism, but its essence is just strategic competition of major powers, Sun said. Biden has said in many of his speeches that the US' return to multilateral institutions aims to restore its leadership in international organizations so that the US can regain its hegemony.

Biden's version of multilateralism may eventually intensify conflicts between the two countries, analysts said.

As for reform of the UN, Wang stressed that no matter how the international organization reforms, the Charter, the core position of the UN in the international system, and the basic rules for equal consultation should not be changed.

Fifty years ago, the 26th United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution to restore the legal seat of the People's Republic of China.

The Chinese foreign minister said the international organization is not a club of major powers, nor is it a club of the rich, but a platform where all countries have equal sovereignty, and no country has the power to dominate international affairs.

RHM/PR

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/170808/China-criticizes-US-for-advocating-pseudo-multilateralism

China says hopes U.S. will remove 'unreasonable' curbs on cooperation

By Gabriel Crossley 4 MIN READ

BEIJING (Reuters) - China urged the United States on Sunday to remove “unreasonable” curbs on cooperation as soon as possible and work together on issues like climate change, while accusing Washington of bringing chaos in the name of spreading democracy.

FILE PHOTO: Chinese and U.S. flags flutter outside the building of an American company in Beijing, China January 21, 2021. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang

Last week U.S. President Joe Biden singled out a “growing rivalry with China” as a key challenge facing the United States, with his top diplomat describing the Asian country as “the biggest geopolitical test” of this century.

Speaking at his annual news conference, the Chinese government’s top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, struck a tough line even as he outlined where the world’s two biggest economies could work together.

Questioned about recent U.S.-China frictions over Taiwan, Xinjiang and the disputed South China Sea, Wang said Beijing “will never accept baseless accusations and smears”.

The United States had used democracy and human rights as a basis for arbitrarily interfering with other countries’ affairs, he said. “The U.S. should realise this as soon as possible, otherwise the world will continue to experience instability.”

Wang added that differences between China and the United States must be managed carefully, the two sides must advocate healthy competition not zero-sum finger-pointing, and that areas like climate change and fighting the pandemic were where they could cooperate.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament-usa/china-says-hopes-u-s-will-remove- unreasonable-curbs-on-cooperation-idUSKBN2AZ05I

China says Hong Kong needs electoral reform for 'brighter future'

By Reuters Staff 3 MIN READ

BEIJING (Reuters) - The Chinese government’s top diplomat State Councillor Wang Yi on Sunday said the electoral system in Hong Kong must be improved for long-term stability, saying reform would bring about a “brighter future” for the city.

China’s plan to dramatically reform Hong Kong’s electoral system, unveiled this week during the country’s annual parliamentary session, is expected to upend the territory’s governance and ensure Beijing loyalists are in charge.

Speaking at his annual news conference at the parliamentary session, Wang said there was no democracy in Hong Kong during colonial times, and that China has confidence electoral reforms will be beneficial.

“Hong Kong’s transition from chaos to governance is fully in the interests of all parties,” said Wang. A year ago, China imposed a tough national security law on the former British colony, saying it was needed following months of sometimes violent anti-government protests.

Beijing has since said that it will directly vet electoral candidates for the city’s legislature and declared that only “patriots” should rule Hong Kong.

“Loving Hong Kong and patriotism are exactly the same,” said Wang on Sunday, adding that changes to the electoral system are constitutional and justified. It comes a week after Hong Kong police detained 47 pro-democracy activists on charges of conspiracy to commit subversion, the largest such mass arrest to date under the new national security law.

China’s actions in Hong Kong have been condemned by the United States and its allies to the anger of the Chinese government, which has said Hong Kong issues are an internal matter with which foreigners have no right to interfere.

Supporters of the national security law - which punishes what it broadly defines as secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces with up to life in prison - have said the legislation is necessary to restore stability in Hong Kong after months of pro-democracy protests in 2019.

(This story fixes garble in headline.)

Reporting by Gabriel Crossley, writing by Cate Cadell and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Christopher Cushing & Simon Cameron-Moore https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament-hongkong/china-says-hong-kong-needs-electoral- reform-for-brighter-future-idUSKBN2AZ056

Top Chinese diplomat warns Biden to tread carefully on Taiwan

• U.S. President Joe Biden speaks to members of the media after delivering remarks in the State Dining Room of the White House on Saturday. | BLOOMBERG

• BLOOMBERG • Mar 7, 2021 A top Chinese diplomat urged the U.S. to stop "crossing lines and playing with fire” on Taiwan, as part of a broad series of warnings to President Joe Biden against meddling in Beijing’s affairs. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at his annual news briefing on Sunday there was "no room for compromise or concessions” in Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over the democratically ruled island. Wang’s response on Taiwan was one of several in which he hit out at the U.S. for "willfully interfering in other countries’ internal affairs in the name of democracy and human rights.”

"It is important that the United States recognizes this as soon as possible,” Wang said on the sidelines of the National People’s Congress in Beijing. "Otherwise, the world will remain far from tranquil.”

At the same time, Wang reiterated China’s willingness to work with the U.S. to address shared concerns about the coronavirus pandemic and the global economy. "I hope China and the U.S. restarting cooperation on climate change can also bring a positive change of climate to bilateral ties,” Wang added. While China has expressed optimism that relations would improve under Biden, it continues to put the onus on Washington to fix the damage done during Donald Trump’s four-year tenure. On Sunday, Wang cited Beijing’s battle with "hegemony, high-handedness and bullying” and "outright interference in China’s domestic affairs” in a list of the country’s diplomatic accomplishments over the past year. The Biden administration has pledged to put greater emphasis on human rights and building an allied response to China, even as it quiets down the anti-Chinese rhetoric of the Trump era. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken last week called dealings with China the defining test of the century, describing Washington’s intended approach to Beijing as "competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be and adversarial when it must be.” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin later suggested during an interview that the U.S. would bolster support for Asia-Pacific allies in the face of "very aggressive” actions by China. "In some cases, they have been coercive. And some of that coercion has been directed against our allies. And our allies are very important to us,” Austin said Sunday on ABC’s "This Week.” China appears to be trying to reestablish a status quo shattered under Trump. The previous U.S. administration, among other things, sanctioned senior Chinese officials over human rights practices in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, approved the highest-level cabinet visit to Taiwan in four decades and imposed tariffs on about $335 billion of Chinese goods annually.

The briefing Sunday was the latest indication that tensions between the world’s two largest economies may continue. Wang’s remarks echoed those of Yang Jiechi, the head of the ruling Communist Party’s foreign affairs body, when he urged the U.S. not to cross China’s "red lines.” State media recently complained that Biden’s early policies were similar to those of his predecessor.

"We urge the new administration in the U.S. to fully recognize the high sensitivity of the Taiwan question,” Wang said, urging the U.S. to stop "the approach of crossing lines and playing with fire of the previous administration, and properly and cautiously tackle” the issue.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/03/07/world/china-u-s-joe-biden-taiwan-wang-yi/

Don’t cross Hong Kong, Taiwan ‘red lines’, China tells US

• But there is potential for common ground on climate change and the pandemic, Chinese foreign minister says • Confrontation likely to continue even if two countries can work together on some issues, analysts say

Teddy Ng and Tony Cheung Published: 11:55pm, 7 Mar, 2021 Why you can trust SCMP

China has drawn a line in the sand on its relations with the United States, saying there is no room for compromise on Hong Kong and Taiwan but other issues are up for discussion and cooperation. ore concerns for the development of China-US relations, saying Beijing was willing to work with Washington onIn hisvarious annual issues, media including conference pandemic on Sunday, control, Chinese economic Foreign recovery Minister and Wang climate Yi outlined change. Beijing’s c

But he stressed that ties between the two countries should be founded on the principle of noninterference in domestic affairs and respect for sovereignty.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3124452/dont-cross-hong-kong-taiwan-red- lines-china-tells-us

Beijing prepared to accept the pain to ‘fix’ Hong Kong, observers say

• China’s leaders believe in the Mao Zedong adage that ‘one hard strike now can prevent hundreds of punches later’, think tank deputy director says • But Beijing also ‘needs to demonstrate it is sincere when it says there will be room for loyal opposition’, academic says

William Zheng , Sarah Zheng andEduardo Baptista Published: 2:00pm, 7 Mar, 2021 Why you can trust SCMP Beijing is ready to face the short-term pain and possible backlash from the West to reform mainland observers say. Hong Kong’s political system, which it sees as a chink in China’s national security armour, From prosecuting 47 Hong Kong opposition figures under the national security law to strong protests from the United States and its allies. overhauling the city’s electoral system, Beijing is adopting a forceful approach despite Analysts say this shows that the central government is determ he Hong Kong problem once and for all and will not accept using the issue as a bargaining chip in power games with the West. ined to “fix” t

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3124376/beijing-prepared-accept-pain-fix-hong- kong-observers-say

Chinese foreign minister says genocide claims 'absurd'

Wang Yi made the comments during his annual news conference on Sunday. A number of nations, including the US, have used the term to describe Chinese treatment of Uighur people.

It comes amid growing evidence of abuses at "re-education camps" for Uighurs in Xinjiang province.

China has been accused of carrying out forced sterilisations on Uighur women and separating children from their families.

BBC investigations suggest that Uighurs are being used as forced labour and have revealed allegations of systematic rape and torture. China has banned BBC World News television over the corporation's coverage of the Uighur issue and coronavirus. The UN says at least one million members of the Muslim minority are being held in the camps, which China says provide vocational training and are aimed at eradicating extremism.

But both the current and former US secretaries of state have described China's treatment of Uighurs as genocide, as have the Canadian and Dutch parliaments. The UN's Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide defines it as acts committed with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.

The allegations have prompted calls in some countries to boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56311759

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi says India, China should create 'enabling conditions' to resolve border issues

"It is important that the two sides manage disputes properly and at the same time expand and enhance cooperation to create enabling conditions for the settlement of the issue," Wang said at an online press conference.

PTI, Beijing

PUBLISHED ON MAR 07, 2021 07:36 PM IST

China and India should stop "undercutting" each other, shed mutual "suspicion" and create "enabling conditions" by expanding bilateral cooperation to resolve the border issue, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Sunday. Calling the boundary dispute as not the "whole story" of the China-India relationship, Wang said that both countries were friends and partners but they should shed suspicion at each other. Answering a question at his annual press conference on the current state of India-China relations following the tense standoff in eastern Ladakh since May last year and how Beijing viewed the relationship going forward, he said it is important that both countries manage their disputes properly and expand bilateral cooperation. "The boundary dispute, an issue left from history, is not the whole story of the China- India relationship. "It is important that the two sides manage disputes properly and at the same time expand and enhance cooperation to create enabling conditions for the settlement of the issue," Wang said at an online press conference held on the sidelines of the annual session of the National People's Congress, China's Parliament.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/chinese-foreign-minister-wang-yi-says-india-china- should-create-enabling-conditions-to-resolve-border-issues-101615125130821.html

China says willing to engage with all parties to ease Myanmar situation

By Reuters Staff 3 MIN READ

BEIJING (Reuters) - China is willing to engage with “all parties” to ease the crisis in neighbouring Myanmar and is not taking sides, the Chinese government’s top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, said on Sunday.

Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi is displayed on screens as he attends via video link a news conference on the sidelines of the National People's Congress (NPC), in Beijing, China March 7, 2021. REUTERS/Thomas Peter

Beijing has said the situation in Myanmar, where the military seized power last month, was “absolutely not what China wants to see” and has dismissed social media rumours of Chinese involvement in the coup as nonsense.

“China is ... willing to contact and communicate with all parties on the basis of respecting Myanmar’s sovereignty and the will of the people, so as to play a constructive role in easing tensions,” Wang told a news conference on the sidelines of China’s annual gathering of parliament. While Western countries have strongly condemned the Feb. 1 coup, China has been more cautious, emphasising the importance of stability.

China nonetheless agreed to a United Nations Security Council statement that called for the release of elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other detainees and voiced concern over the state of emergency.

“China has long-term friendly exchanges with all parties and factions in Myanmar, including the National League for Democracy (NLD), and friendship with China has always been the consensus of all sectors in Myanmar,” Wang said. The NLD is Suu Kyi’s party. Its landslide November victory in national elections has been ignored by the junta.

“No matter how the situation in Myanmar changes, China’s determination to promote China-Myanmar relations will not waver, and China’s direction of promoting China-Myanmar friendly cooperation will not change,” Wang said.

On Saturday, an Israeli-Canadian lobbyist hired by Myanmar’s junta told Reuters that the generals are keen to leave politics after their coup and seek to improve relations with the United States and distance themselves from China.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament-myanmar/china-says-willing-to-engage-with-all- parties-to-ease-myanmar-situation-idUSKBN2AZ071

Unions call for total strike in Myanmar; Suu Kyi party official dies in custody

By Reuters Staff 5 MIN READ

(Reuters) - Myanmar’s major trade unions called on members to shut down the economy from Monday to back a campaign against last month’s coup, raising pressure on the junta as its forces fired weapons and occupied hospitals in the main city Yangon after a day of massive protests.

Witnesses reported sounds of gunfire or stun grenades in many districts of the commercial capital after nightfall, as soldiers set up camp in hospitals and university compounds, local media reported. It was not clear whether anyone was hurt.

The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a non-profit, said the army was “intentionally terrorizing residents” in Yangon. The show of force came after some of the largest nationwide protests since the Feb. 1 coup, and an alliance of nine unions said they planned a “full extended shutdown” of the economy.

“To continue economic and business activities as usual...will only benefit the military as they repress the energy of the Myanmar people,” they said in a joint statement. “The time to take action in defence of our democracy is now.” A spokesman for the military did not answer calls seeking comment and Reuters was unable to reach police for comment. The army has said it is dealing with protests lawfully.

An official from the party of deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi died overnight in police custody. National League for Democracy (NLD) official Khin Maung Latt had worked as a campaign manager for one of two Muslim MPs elected in 2020. Ba Myo Thein, a member of parliament’s upper house which was dissolved after the coup, said reports of bruising to Khin Maung Latt’s head and body raised suspicions that he had been abused.

“It seems that he was arrested at night and tortured severely,” he told Reuters. “This is totally unacceptable.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics/protests-erupt-across-myanmar-suu-kyi-party- official-dies-in-custody-idUSKBN2AY0ME

Myanmar coup: NLD official dies in police custody, authorities open fire on protesters in Bagan

• Khin Maung Lang, a campaign manager from Aung San Suu Kyi’s deposed party, was ‘taken in a raid’ on Saturday night • In Yangon and elsewhere, raids have been carried out nightly after an 8pm curfew, often at gunpoint

Reuters Published: 6:59am, 7 Mar, 2021 Why you can trust SCMP An official from the party of deposed Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi died overnight in police custody, associates said, while protests were held in at least half a dozen cities in some of the most widespread action against the coup last month.

he dissolved parliament, wrote in a Facebook post that Khin Maung Latt was his campaign manager and was arrested onThe Saturday cause of nightKhin Maungin the Pabedan Latt’s death district was of not Yangon. known Police but Sithu decl inedMaung, to comment.a member of t

Suspicion was rampant on social media that Khin Maung Latt, 58, died due to a beating in custody after being taken from his residence, but no official cause of death was immediately announced.

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3124400/frustrated-and-fed-journalists- group-calls-release

Dozens of Myanmar citizens gather at Indian border, hoping to escape post-coup violence

• Myanmar authorities have also asked India to send back eight police who fled this week, ‘to uphold friendly relations’ between the two countries • India, which has sought to build closer ties with Myanmar in order to counter China’s influence, has not condemned the coup

Agence France-Presse Published: 8:25pm, 7 Mar, 2021 Why you can trust SCMP Scores of Myanmar nationals have gathered at the border with India waiting to join about 50 who have already crossed the frontier to flee the coup turmoil, Indian officials said on Saturday.

Myanmar authorities have meanwhile askedcountry’s India to send back eight police who fled this week.

Forty- Mizoram, a senior officer in the Assam Rifles paramilitary force said. eight Myanmar nationals, including the eight police, have entered India’s northeastern state of https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3124450/dozens-myanmar-citizens-gather-indian- border-hoping-escape

Hundreds of Thai protesters rally to demand leaders' release

By Reuters Staff 2 MIN READ

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Hundreds of demonstrators gathered in the Thai capital on Saturday evening to demand that authorities release some protest leaders from jail, defying an order on late Friday banning public gatherings in the city.RTISEMENT: Your content will begin in 24 seconds

A youth-led protest movement sprang up last year calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, a former junta leader, and reform of the powerful monarchy. Thai courts have denied recent requests for bail for some of the jailed protest leaders.

“Release our friends,” shouted the protesters in unison, as they gathered in front of a criminal court, which was surrounded by barbed wire. A water cannon truck could be seen behind the gates of the court.

“Abolish 112,” they also said, referring to Thailand’s lese majeste law, or Article 112 in the Thai criminal code, which prohibits anyone from insulting or defaming the king.

A few protesters burned photographs of the king at the rally. Separate groups also led two other protests at other locations in Bangkok.

Earlier on Saturday, police warned protesters that they risked being arrested and that police might use harsher measures if protesters became unruly.

“Protests are illegal. Anyone who joins or invites others to join is breaking the law,” Piya Tavichai, deputy commissioner of Bangkok Metropolitan Police Bureau, told a news conference. Police used rubber bullets for the first time last Sunday, as well as tear gas and water cannon to disperse protesters. Ten protesters and 26 police were injured.

In a podcast on Saturday morning, the prime minister urged Thais to respect the law and avoid conflict.

“We have to love each other and be united, not divided, and respect the law,” said Prayuth, who first came to power after leading a military coup in 2014.

The Royal Palace has declined to directly comment on the protests, but Prayuth and government officials have said that criticism of the king is unlawful and inappropriate.

Reporting by Patpicha Tanakasempipat, Panarat Thepgumpanat and Panu Wongcha-um; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Frances Kerry

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-protests/hundreds-of-thai-protesters-rally-to-demand- leaders-release-idUSKBN2AY0AA

Is South Korea changing its calculus over Japan as Moon Jae-in counts down his days in office?

• With just over a year left in his term, the president has signalled a willingness for talks with Tokyo – though reconciliation is seen as tricky after years of distrust • An analyst says closer South Korea-Japan ties will ring alarm bells in China, which may respond by trying to drive a wedge between the sides and their relations with the US

John Power Published: 8:00am, 7 Mar, 2021 Why you can trust SCMP When Moon Jae-in gave his first speech marking the 1919 Korean uprising against Japanese colonial rule, the South Korean leader berated the former occupier for refusing to face up to its past.

During a 2018 ceremony to mark the 99th anniversary of the March 1 Independence Movement, Moon pointed to territorial claim to Dokdo a pair of tiny islets in the Sea of Japan and its insistence that the issue of Korean women forced into wartime sexual slavery had been resolved as proof Tokyo had yetJapan’s to face the truth of history– and –

Japan will be able“squarely to genuinely reconcile with its neighboursjustice”. on which it inflicted suffering and walk the p “I hope https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3124260/south-korea-chaath of peaceful coexistence and prosperity together,” Moon said at thenging-its-calculus-over- time. japan-moon-jae-counts

Early Signals to North Korea Seen as Key to Keeping Door Open to Diplomacy

By Christy Lee March 07, 2021 04:03 PM

WASHINGTON - Experts are urging the Biden administration to send an early signal to North Korea, conveying its interest in keeping diplomacy open even as Washington conducts policy reviews on how to deal with the regime so that it can gauge Pyongyang’s response for possible talks.

“I believe that as part of the administration’s policy review, it makes sense to establish a private channel of communications to reach out to North Korea and to evaluate North Korea’s response,” said Scott Snyder, director of the program on U.S.-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“That message should indicate parameters and framing for potential follow-up dialogue opportunities.”

Sen. Edward Markey and Rep. Ro Khanna urged President Joe Biden to “promptly seek” talks with North Korea in a letter sent on Wednesday.

“We hope that your administration’s North Korea policy review concludes that a step-by-step process — which tailors sanctions relief to the scope of a North Korean commitment to freeze and unwind its nuclear and ballistic missile programs — is the wisest course of action,” Markey and Khanna said in the letter.

The Biden administration has been highlighting the threats of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs but did not indicate it has reached out to North Korea as it conducts its policy review on deciding how to deal with North Korea, which is expected to take some time.

Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Philip Davidson said, “North Korea will remain our most immediate threat to peace and stability in the Indo- Pacific” unless “the nuclear situation is resolved” and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un “agrees to complete denuclearization.” He made the remark on Wednesday at an event hosted by the U.S.-based Institute for Corea- American Studies, a non-profit, non-partisan group focused on improving ties between the United States and Asia-Pacific Rim nations. While detailing the top foreign policy priorities of the U.S. in his speech on Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken mentioned North Korea as posing “serious challenges”without elaborating.

Blinken, in his nomination confirmation hearing in January, said, “We have to review, and we intend to review, the entire approach and policy toward North Korea because this is a hard problem that has plagued administration after administration.”

As of February, there has been no sign that the administration has made contacts with North Korea as indicated by State Department spokesperson Ned Price.

Price said in February that “a lack of direct engagement with North Korea” should not be taken “as an indication that the challenges of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs … [is] not a priority.”

https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/early-signals-north-korea-seen-key-keeping-door-open- diplomacy

UK will work closely with India, Japan, US, Australia in Indo-Pacific: British High Commissioner

UK will w ..

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/uk-will-work-closely-with-india-japan-us- australia-in-indo-pacific-british-high-commissioner/articleshow/81355458.cms

Google Billionaire Eric Schmidt Warns Of 'National Emergency' If China Overtakes U.S. In AI Tech

Jonathan PoncianoForbes Staff

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt on Sunday urged lawmakers to ramp up funding for research and development in the artificial intelligence space in order to prevent China from becoming the biggest player in the global AI market–a development Schmidt warned would spark national security and privacy concerns that could ultimately constitute a national emergency. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/03/07/google-billionaire-eric-schmidt-warns-of- national-emergency-if-china-overtakes-us-in-ai-tech/?sh=39395a9c199f

FBI finds ties between Proud Boys, Trump associate, prior to riot - report

According to the report, it was also found that there were communications between rioters and Congress members during the riots. By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

MARCH 7, 2021 19:49

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has found contacts between an unnamed member of the far-right neo-fascist Proud Boys and a person associated with the Trump administration days prior to the January Capitol riots, according to a New York Times report on Saturday. The report found that the FBI discovered contacts between the Proud Boys and the White House through cellular and call record data, though it remains unclear the exact nature of the conversations. The discovery came as the FBI continues to investigate the network of ties between the Proud Boys, Trump associates and members of Congress. https://www.jpost.com/international/fbi-finds-ties-between-proud-boys-trump-associate-prior-to-riot- report-661239

China could soon outgun US in western Pacific, Indo-Pacific chief says

Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Adm. Philip Davidson testifies during a hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington on Feb. 12, 2019. In a video teleconference presentation he gave Thursday, March 4, 2021, Davidson expressed concerns about China's growing influence. "Make no mistake about it, China seeks a new world order," Davidson said.

(Tribune News Service) — China could soon be emboldened to try to "forcely change " the existing order in the western Pacific, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said.

As its rapidly advancing military approaches "overmatch " with the United States in the region, and absent a convincing deterrent, China could make a move this decade.

"Make no mistake about it, China seeks a new world order — one with Chinese characteristics as they have often said where Chinese national power is more important than international law, " Adm. Phil Davidson said during an American Enterprise Institute forum Thursday.

The United States established an Asia-Pacific policy of free trade and passage after World War II. One fear is that China would restrict access to the South China Sea—a global economic thoroughfare.

"The most important thing I'd like you all to take away from the discussions |is a fundamental understanding that the period between now and 2026—this decade—is the time horizon in which China is positioned to achieve overmatch in its capability, " the Oahu -based commander said.

That's when Beijing could—and he emphasized "could "—"choose to forcibly change the status quo in the region." Davidson didn't specify what action China might take, but he said with the growing military imbalance comes greater risk that China could move "before our forces might be able to deliver an effective response."

Carl Schuster, a retired Navy captain, former director of operations at U.S. Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center and an adjunct professor at Hawaii Pacific University, said he shares Davidson's concerns.

Chinese President Xi Jinping "has accelerated China's military buildup, modernization and combat readiness, " Schuster said. "They outnumber us in terms of seaborne missile shooters and, of course, shore-based air power. While I don't think they will be ready to conduct an amphibious assault on Taiwan itself by 2025, I do think Xi is hoping to establish the power ratio and capability to give us pause if he decides to create an incident."

China considers Taiwan a breakaway province. Xi's "intimidation campaign " is waged against Taiwan on many fronts, including Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identifi-cation zone 26 times in February alone, Schuster said.

Davidson is seeking $4.6 billion in fiscal 2022 and $27.3 billion through 2027 for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative—a measure put in place last year to boost defense spending in the era of "great power " competition with China.

The request is more than double the $2.2 billion authorized for the current fiscal year via the initiative and comes with the anticipation of flattened defense budgets due to the effects of COVID-19.

The deterrence initiative addresses unfunded requirements that are not covered in Indo- Pacific or service budgets, the command said.

Davidson, scheduled to appear Wednesday before the House Armed Services Committee to discuss national security challenges in the region, said the defense of Guam with a 360-degree Aegis Ashore air defense radar and missile-firing system remains his No. 1 unfunded priority.

Located within what's known as the second island chain radiating out from the South China Sea, Guam is "absolutely critical in maintaining deterrence and stability in the region " and "our most critical operating location west of the international dateline, " he said.

Camp Blaz, the first new Marine Corps base since 1952, was activated there on Oct. 1 and will be home to approximately 5, 000 Marines relocating from Okinawa, Japan, in the first half of the 2020s, according to the Corps. Bombers, fighters and submarines operate from Guam. China has conducted circumnavigations of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands with surface ships and submarines and conducted bomber runs in the Philippine Sea, creating a 360-degree threat from cruise and ballistic missiles, Davidson said.

The United States will not only "need to be able to fight from (Guam ), " Davidson said. "We're going to have to be able to fight for it, and missile defense in the region is critical."

He said Aegis Ashore also could fire Tomahawk cruise missiles and has the potential for SM-6 missiles with anti-air, anti-surface warfare and ballistic missile defense applications. The Guam Defense System is pegged at $1.6 billion through 2027.

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system and a Navy destroyer already are dedicated to the missile defense of Guam, "but it's really designed to defend against the rogue shot from North Korea, " the 4-star admiral said.

Schuster said Chinese surface combatant numbers are growing at five times the rate of those of the United States.

"Those ships' combat capabilities are nearly equal to ours—if not equal to ours—and they are concentrated in the western Pacific, potentially giving them 'local superiority' at a moment of their choosing, " Schuster said.

In a "message to the force " Thursday, new Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the Defense Department "will prioritize China as our number one pacing challenge and develop the right operational concepts, capabilities and plans to bolster deterrence and maintain our competitive advantage."

At another forum on Monday, Davidson said that fundamentally, a deterrence strategy aimed at China must include U.S. forces that are highly maneuverable and have depth of firepower. The Marine Corps and Army are planning to have fast-moving missile units that can sink ships at sea from islands that are part of choke points in the western Pacific.

Interoperability and information-sharing is being increased with allies and partners, he said. Davidson also was asked about the Pacific islands that have taken on renewed importance for military basing.

The region has "millions of square miles of ocean space with pretty small populations, " Davidson noted. The islands were used in island-hopping campaigns by both the Japanese and United States in World War II.

Davidson said he sees a "staggering amount " of Chinese attempts at corruption, coercion and co-option "across the whole of the Pacific island chain " that involves under-the-table payouts to government and business elites and sometimes direct coercive action.

The commander said that "deterrence is not a bluff." Rather, it "is a demonstration of capacity, capability and will that could deny China's objectives." "Ultimately, the steps we take in establishing an effective deterrent posture must convince Beijing, unequivocally, the costs of achieving their objectives by the use of military force are simply too high, " he said. https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/china-could-soon-outgun-us-in-western-pacific-indo-pacific- chief-says-1.664800

China has built the world's largest navy. Now what's Beijing going to do with it?

Analysis by Brad Lendon, CNN Updated 0129 GMT (0929 HKT) March 6, 2021

Hong Kong (CNN)In 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping donned military fatigues and boarded a People's Liberation Army Navy destroyer in the South China Sea.

Spread out before him that April day was the largest flotilla Communist-ruled China had ever put to sea at one time, 48 ships, dozens of fighter jets, more than 10,000 military personnel. For Xi, the country's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, the day was a way point to a grand ambition -- a force that would show China's greatness and power across the world's seven oceans. "The task of building a powerful navy has never been as urgent as it is today," Xi said that day. China was already in the midst of a shipbuilding spree like few the world has ever seen. In 2015, Xi undertook a sweeping project to turn the PLA into a world-class fighting force, the peer of the United States military. He had ordered investments in shipyards and technology that continue at pace today. By at least one measurement, Xi's plan has worked. At some point between 2015 and today, China has assembled the world's largest naval force. And now it's working to make it formidable far from its shores. In 2015, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) had 255 battle force ships in its fleet, according to the US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI). As of the end of 2020, it had 360, over 60 more than the US Navy, according to an ONI forecast. Four years from now, the PLAN will have 400 battle force ships, the ONI predicts. Go back to 2000, and the numbers are even more stark. "China's navy battle force has more than tripled in size in only two decades," read a December report by the leaders of the US Navy, Marines and Coast Guard. "Already commanding the world's largest naval force, the People's Republic of China is building modern surface combatants, submarines, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, amphibious assault ships, ballistic nuclear missile submarines, large coast guard cutters, and polar icebreakers at alarming speed." Some of those will be the equal or better of anything the US or other naval powers can put in the water. "The PLAN is not receiving junk from China's shipbuilding industry but rather increasingly sophisticated, capable vessels," Andrew Erickson, a professor at the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute, wrote in a February paper.

A Type 052D Chinese guided missile destroyer participates in a naval parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of China's PLA Navy in 2019. Those include ships like the Type 055 destroyer -- which some analysts say betters the US Ticonderoga-class cruisers for firepower -- and amphibious assault ships that could put thousands of Chinese troops near foreign shores. Where the US stands While China is expected to field 400 ships by 2025, the goal of the current US Navy shipbuilding plan, a goal with no fixed date, is for a fleet of 355 -- a substantial numerical disadvantage. That's not to say the US Navy has seen its days as the world's premier fighting force come to an end. When counting troops, the US Navy is bigger, with more than 330,000 active duty personnel to China's 250,000. Analysts point out several other factors in Washington's favor.

This may be the most fearsome US Navy weapon in the Pacific The US Navy still fields more tonnage -- bigger and heavier armed ships like guided- missile destroyers and cruisers -- than China. Those ships give the US a significant edge in cruise missile launch capability. The US has more than 9,000 vertical launch missile cells on its surface ships to China's 1,000 or so, according to Nick Childs, a defense analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Meanwhile, the US attack submarine fleet of 50 boats is entirely nuclear powered, giving it significant range and endurance advantages over a Chinese fleet that has just seven nuclear-powered subs in its fleet of 62. Close to home, however, the numbers move in Beijing's favor. "The big advantage the Chinese navy holds over the US Navy is in patrol and coastal combatants, or corvettes and below," Childs said. Those smaller ships are augmented by China's coast guard and maritime militia with enough ships combined to almost double the PLAN's total strength. Those are troubling signs for Washington as it grapples with budget and pandemic problems that are much larger than China's. Analysts worry the trend lines, including China's announcement Friday that it will increase its annual defense budget by 6.8%, are going in Beijing's direction.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, meets with representatives of the aircraft carrier unit and the manufacturer at a naval port in Sanya, south China's Hainan province on Dec. 17, 2019. Nobody can match China's shipbuilding You can't have the world's largest navy if you can't build a lot of ships. China gives itself that ability by being the world's largest commercial shipbuilder. In 2018, China held 40% of the world's shipbuilding market by gross tons, according to United Nations figures cited by the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, well ahead of second place South Korea at 25%. Put in a historical perspective, China's shipbuilding numbers are staggering -- dwarfing even the US efforts of World War II. China built more ships in one year of peace time (2019) than the US did in four of war (1941-1945). "During the emergency shipbuilding program of World War II, which supported massive, mechanized armies in two theaters of war thousands of miles from home, US shipbuilding production peaked at 18.5 million tons annually, and the United States finished the war with a merchant fleet that weighed in at 39 million tons," said Thomas Shugart a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and former US Navy captain, in testimony before Congress last month. "In 2019, during peacetime, China built more than 23 million tons of shipping, and China's merchant fleet ... totals more than 300 million tons," Shugart said.

2018: China's new destroyers: 'Power, prestige and majesty' The Chinese state-owned companies churning out commercial shipping are also the engines of its naval buildup. "In conflict, excess PRC industrial capacity, including additional commercial shipyards, could quickly be turned toward military production and repair, further increasing China's ability to generate new military forces," Erickson, of the US Naval War College, wrote last year. The infrastructure in place, the workforces involved and the technology employed in those commercial shipyards is applicable in turning out warships in quantity. That's something China does very well. "Between 2014 and 2018, China launched more submarines, warships, amphibious vessels, and auxiliaries than the number of ships currently serving in the individual navies of Germany, India, Spain, and the United Kingdom," according to the China Power Project. "At the rate China is building naval vessels, and with the capabilities those newer warships have, I would say that they've already progressed from what was a coastal defense navy, to what is now probably their region's most powerful navy -- with some global reach -- and are on their way to building a world-class power projection navy if they continue growing as they have," Shugart told CNN.

A Type 052D destroyer of China's People's Liberation Army Navy provides an escort ahead of the Liaoning aircraft carrier into the Lamma Channel as it arrives in Hong Kong territorial waters on July 7, 2017. The power of missiles Beijing has been methodical in its naval buildup, with much of its numbers to date concentrated on craft such as corvettes, frigates and diesel-electric-powered submarines that would be useful in waters around China, said Sidharth Kaushal, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. "The bulk of China's shipbuilding, such as its force of (approximately) 75 Type 056 corvettes, are smaller vessels of the corvette/frigate size," Kaushal said. Contrast that to the US Navy, whose closest ship to the frigate class, the littoral combat ship, now numbers only around 15 combat-dedicated vessels.

Corvette

A Type 056 corvette, above, of the Chinese navy transits Hong Kong's Victoria Harbor in 2019.

Corvettes form the biggest chunk of the People's Liberation Army Navy fleet, with 72 in service as of February 2021, according to a report in state-run Global Times.

Source: Global Times The corvette force is ideal for tighter, shallower ocean environments, like China's key areas of concern, the South China Sea; around Taiwan; and the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, controlled by Tokyo but claimed by Beijing. The ships the PLAN puts to sea near Chinese shores are protected by a large ground- based missile force. The missiles "problematize US power projection and prevent overwhelming naval and air power from striking the Chinese mainland," said Kaushal. "However, this also has the effect of facilitating power projection against local nations, as these nations are far more vulnerable when the maritime links that enable the US to support them are severed." For instance, if the US Navy was unable to operate in the South China Sea because of the Chinese missile threat, it would have a hard time protecting the Philippines, with which Washington has a mutual defense treaty. US military leaders are also cognizant that in 2021 the PLA Navy is much more than ships. "Take a look at what China's really investing in," US Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday said this week in an interview with Breaking Defense. "Yes, they are putting more ships in the water, but they're investing heavily in anti-ship missiles as well as satellite systems to be able to target ships." All that gives China a strong hand to play in any possible conflict close to home. And China is adamant its military is defensive. "The development of China's national defense aims to meet its rightful security needs and contribute to the growth of the world's peaceful forces," said the country's 2019 defense white paper, titled "China's National Defense in the New Era." "China will never threaten any other country or seek any sphere of influence." So why is the PLA Navy building aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships and large, powerful destroyers and cruisers suitable for operation far from China?

This aerial photo taken on January 2, 2017, shows a Chinese navy formation, including the aircraft carrier Liaoning (C), during military drills in the South China Sea. Near seas defense vs far seas protection Protecting the Chinese mainland and its territorial claims around the region are what Beijing calls "near seas defense." China's massive naval buildup coincides with it reinforcing its claims to almost all of the 3.3 million square-kilometer (1.3 million square-mile) South China Sea by building up tiny reefs and sandbars into man-made artificial islands heavily fortified with missiles, runways and weapons systems.

US steps up challenges to Chinese-claimed islands in South China Sea "Islands and reefs in South China Sea have unique advantages in safeguarding national sovereignty and maintaining a military presence in the open sea," read a December 2020 article in Naval and Merchant Ships, a Beijing-based magazine published by the China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which supplies the PLA Navy. But they can't stand alone, the magazine noted. In the events of hostilities, outposts in the southern reaches of the waterway could require reinforcements from near China's southern coast, more than a day's sailing away, it said. Piling resources in the near seas to achieve that level of control could be problematic for China, some argue. It may leave China vulnerable to a distant naval blockade that could deprive it of vital materials from abroad, severing what are termed sea lines of communication, or SLOC for short. "China does not control the straits and transit lanes on which its economy depends and 'once a crisis or war at sea occurs, (China's) sea transport could be cut off,'" Jennifer Rice and Eric Robb, senior intelligence analysts at the US Office of Naval Intelligence, wrote in a paper for the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute last month. "The regional focus of near seas defense is also insufficient to address the increasingly global scope of China's economic interests."

China launches amphibious assault ship, giving a big boost to its coastal warfare capabilities To bring Chinese military power to bear on its global interests, they said, China has begun implementing "far seas protection." "Far seas protection reflects Beijing's direction for the PLAN to 'go global,' ... part of a larger Chinese government policy to encourage the expansion of China's economy and cultural outreach," Rice and Robb wrote. Part of the play is perception. For decades now, nothing has quite projected military power as the image of a US Navy aircraft carrier in waters far from home. It's something China craves, analysts say. "Some Chinese military analysts suggest it is imperative for the PLA to safeguard China's overseas interests and note that sending out the PLAN is essential to establishing China's image as a great power," Rice and Robb wrote. Dozens of corvettes can't do that. So China has ramped up its production of ships that form an aircraft carrier task force, like guided-missile cruisers and nuclear-powered submarines, which have much longer endurance than the diesel-electrics that comprise most of the PLAN fleet.

Satellite photos appear to show Chinese submarine using underground base The PLA Navy has two aircraft carriers in service, but their endurance without refueling is limited to less than week, according to the China Power project. That makes them more suitable for use in places like the South China Sea rather than in far oceans. But more carriers are in planning and production. The newest planned Chinese carrier is expected to be equipped with a nuclear power reactor and electromagnetic catapults that will enable it to launch aircraft with more firepower and greater range than the existing carriers. Rice and Robb point out that two Chinese defense white papers, from 2015 and 2019, say long-range naval forces are necessary to help with international peacekeeping, disaster relief and naval diplomacy -- in other words, flying China's flag overseas. But they issue a warning. "The peacetime nature of these activities can obscure far seas protection's wartime applications. The concept encourages offensive operations during wartime, despite the defensive strategy its name implies," they wrote. Citing Chinese publications, they add, "One source urges naval forces to 'control key strategic channels' far from China. Another source advocates employing strategic 'fist' forces formed around aircraft carriers. ... Another wartime mission is to strike important nodes and high-value targets in the enemy's strategic depth to 'ease pressure on the near-seas battlefield.'"

China's first aircraft carrier, Liaoning, arrives in Hong Kong waters on July 7, 2017. What's possible now -- and later Although the Chinese navy would be a formidable opponent for any foe, its practical abilities don't yet match its aspirations. Firstly, the PLAN would require aircraft carrier battle groups with far stronger air wings than the Chinese fleet's current capabilities.

Aircraft carrier

The Shandong, above, is the newest of China's two active aircraft carriers.

Commissioned in 2019, it is an updated version of its predecessor, the Liaoning, which is a platform originally built for the Soviet navy.

The Shandong carries an air wing of approximately four dozen aircraft split between fighters and helicopters. The Shandong is conventionally powered, meaning it can only operate about six days at sea before refueling.

Source: China Power-CSIS

The PLAN's two active carriers are conventionally powered and based on old Soviet designs. That limits the range of the ships themselves, the range and number of aircraft they carry, and the payloads of munitions on those aircraft. In short, they are not even near peers to the US Navy's fleet of 11 aircraft carriers. And just one of those US carriers makes an intimidating statement while steaming off a foreign shore. "A US Navy aircraft carrier, its air wing, is more powerful than most countries' entire air forces," said Eric Wertheim, editor of the US Naval Institute's "Combat Fleets of the World." The PLA Navy is not there yet. Note how limited China's long-range naval power projection has been to date. China's aircraft carriers haven't ventured farther than the western Pacific, let alone to projected power globally. While PLAN ships have deployed to the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and into the North Atlantic to northern Russian ports, they've done so in small numbers and infrequently. Just last week, state-run tabloid Global Times reported on a Chinese naval expedition group of at least five ships led by a guided-missile destroyer crossing the equator and sailing into the open sea. It did not give an exact location of the equator crossing but noted the group had likely been at sea for three weeks. "Such missions enable the PLA to get familiar with the high seas as China eyes to build a blue-water navy," the report said. Global Times said a year ago a similar expedition group ventured out into the Pacific, an event noted by Roderick Lee, director of research at the US Air Force's Air University China Aerospace Studies Institute.

Destroyer

A Chinese navy Type 052D destroyer, front, takes part in an exercise with the Russian navy in the Baltic Sea in 2017.

The ship, of which China had built 25 as of August 2020, is a prime example of how China is making modern warships with the ability to project naval power around the world, analysts say.

Sources: Global Times, US Naval Institute

"The key takeaway from this training event is that the PLAN is developing the proficiencies to sustain limited offensive strikes against US forces -- perhaps as far out as Hawaii," Lee wrote for the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief. "The PLA Navy is making significant progress in joint operations, damage control, logistics, and intelligence -- to the extent that they may soon be able to operate on the doorstep of US Navy port facilities in wartime." But other analysts say the realization of the PLAN's blue-water efforts could be years, if not decades, away. "By 2049 China aims to have a global military that's able to fight and win wars and project power globally," Meia Nouwens, senior fellow for Chinese defense policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said last week as the think tank released its annual world "Military Balance" report. Along that timeline, analysts say they are looking for certain benchmarks to measure progress. They include establishing more overseas bases to support the PLAN -- it has only one, in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa -- and building heavy air transport to supply those bases. "An interesting one will be when a Chinese carrier group makes a long-range deployment of significance, potentially into the Indian Ocean," Childs, the International Institute of Strategic Studies defense analyst, said. Other notable deployments could include going into the Arctic and possibly the Atlantic, Childs added.

Soldiers stand on deck of the ambitious transport dock Yimen Shan of the PLA Navy as it participates in a parade in the sea near Qingdao, China, in 2019. The Taiwan question But in the near term, the center of attention is Taiwan, the democratic self-governing island that the powers in Beijing say is a historical and inalienable part of their sovereign territory. Beijing's 2019 defense white paper said the island's authorities were "intensifying hostility and confrontation, and borrowing the strength of foreign influence." "The 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces and their actions remain the gravest immediate threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the biggest barrier hindering the peaceful reunification of the country," the paper said. And in a press conference in January, a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman made clear where the military stands. "Taiwan is an inalienable part of China," Senior Col. Wu Qian said.

China flies warplanes close to Taiwan in early test of Biden "The PLA will take all necessary measures to resolutely defeat any attempt by the 'Taiwan independence' separatists, and firmly defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity." In a speech in 2019, Xi said "not a single inch of our land" could be ceded from China. "We should safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country and achieve full unification of the motherland," he said. In many ways concerning Taiwan, Xi has set up the PLA Navy fleet to do that. As noted, the concentration of smaller surface ships like corvettes and coastal patrol craft are suited for combat near shores. And there's only about 130 kilometers (80 miles) of relatively shallow water between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland, ideal for the corvettes. Those six dozen or so corvettes, for example, can carry two anti-ship missiles each with ranges of up to 200 kilometers (125 miles). Imagine the tracking and missile defense headache that creates for the US Navy surface fleet in the Pacific, which can only muster about three dozen destroyers. PLA capital shipbuilding can also been seen in the lens of Taiwan. Late last year, the Type 075 landing helicopter dock (LHD), a 35,000- to 40,000-ton multipurpose ship about half the size of China's two in-service aircraft carriers, embarked on sea trials.

Taiwan's planned submarine fleet could forestall a potential Chinese invasion for decades As one of the biggest amphibious assault ships in the world, the Type 075 has a full flight deck to handle helicopters, and a flooded well deck that can launch and recover hovercraft and amphibious vehicles, according to an analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). It also has the capacity to carry 900 ground troops, who the helicopters and hovercraft can put ashore. The ship, the first of three in the water or in production, "considerably elevates China's ability to transport, land, and support ground forces operating outside the Chinese mainland," analysts Matthew Funaiole and Joseph Bermudez Jr. wrote for the CSIS. "The new class of ship ... represents a significant step forward for enhancing China's amphibious capabilities." But if China were to invade Taiwan, it would need far more than 900 ground troops to control and occupy the island. And that brings us back to those numbers, including the coast guard, the maritime militia, even those merchant ships China produces like no one else can. "We would be wise to assume that China will bring all of its tools of maritime power to bear in ensuring success in a cross-Strait invasion," Shugart, the CNAS analyst, told Congress, who drew an analogy to the escape of British forces from France in World War II to visualize his point. "In something like the form of a reverse-Dunkirk, we should expect that instead of only dealing with dozens of gray-painted PLA Navy amphibious vessels and their escorts, we would likely see a Taiwan Strait flooded with many hundreds of fishing boats, merchant ships, and Coast Guard and Maritime Safety Administration vessels." https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/05/china/china-world-biggest-navy-intl-hnk-ml-dst/index.html

China's Destroyer Fleet: The Next Great Naval Threat?

Here's What You Need to Know: China has been playing catch-up for decades and could be closing the ground with the United States and its allies.

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Earlier this year there were reports that China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) was going “all-in” on aircraft carriers, but now the new threat could be the PLAN’s attempts to double the size of its destroyer fleet.

There is no denying that China’s PLAN has been modernizing for the past twenty-five years, and it has transformed from barely being a “green water” navy to a true “blue water” navy, which can operate in more-distant waters including the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean and even in the waters near Europe.

At the same time, it has taken the first step towards building a global network of naval bases by expanding its PLAN facilities in Djibouti, located at the “Horn of Africa.”

This week The Diplomat reported that as of mid-2020, the PLAN currently fields twenty modern Aegis-type destroyers, which are supported by eleven older (non-Aegis-type) destroyers. Of those twenty newer warships, eighteen were commissioned only within the past seven years.

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This includes one lead Type 055, a new class of stealth-guided missile destroyers that feature a multi-mission design and are equipped with a combination of sensors and weapons that can allow it to be used in area air defense and anti-submarine warfare (ASW). Navy Recognition reported that the future variants of the Type 055 destroyers could be armed with such advanced weapons as lasers or electromagnetic railguns.

Currently, the warship’s primary firepower includes 112 vertical launch system (VLS) tubes that can launch a variety of weapons, including HHQ-9 surface-to air-missiles, YJ-18 anti-ship missiles and YU-8 rocket-propelled anti-submarine torpedoes.

SPONSORED CONTENT The Type 055 resembles some elements of the U.S. Navy’s own stealthy USS Zumwalt, and is capable of launching land-attack missiles. Beijing’s plan for the PLAN is to have a fleet of eight of the Type 055 destroyers—with five built or under construction and three more planned to be built in the near future. The first Type 055, the Nanchang, was launched in January 2020.

Moreover, while Beijing has classified the Type 055 as destroyers, a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency 2019 report on Chinese military strength actually described them as guided missile cruisers, and as past reporting from The National Interest has noted at ten thousand to twelve thousand tons, and 590 feet long, these are actually slightly bigger than American Ticonderoga-class cruisers.

The destroyers (or cruisers as the case may be) could be part of the PLAN strategy to have naval dominance by 2030 and naval superiority by 2049. However, as has been noted in the past, such efforts will cost a great deal of money and China would still need to have more warships than the United States as well as America’s partners around the world including the UK, Australia and even India.

As Forbes.com also reported this week, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force— which is technically still a serious naval force—could be looking at submarines to counter any Chinese threat. In other words, Beijing could be doubled down on destroyers, just as it has appeared to go all-in on carriers, but building them is only half the process. Those vessels will need to be maintained and kept up to date with the latest hardware.

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China has been playing catch-up for decades and could be closing the ground with the United States and its allies, but an expensive effort to build a powerful “blue water” navy is just another expense for a nation that could be stretched thin in many directions.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/chinas-destroyer-fleet-next-great-naval-threat-179375

China’s 6.8 per cent rise in military spending expected to stoke unease in region

• Defence funding will reach US$209 billion in 2021, and Premier Li Keqiang says PLA will get a training boost • Analysts say it reflects strong economic recovery and increase will be concerning for neighbours

Military delegates leave the opening session of the National People’s Congress in Beijing on Friday. Photo: AP

The gap between China’s military and its regional counterparts is widening, with Beijing announcing a 6.8 per cent rise in defence spending on Friday that observers say will stoke concerns among its neighbours. While the budget increase is just 0.2 of a percentage point more than last year’s growth, it is the biggest expansion in military spending in Asia.The finance ministry said funding for the military would reach 1.355 trillion yuan (US$209 billion) in 2021, while Premier Li Keqiang told the opening session of the national legislature that the People’s Liberation Army would get a training boost to improve combat readiness.It comes as China is embroiled in multiple disputes, including along its Himalayan border with India, and with the United States and other nations in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.The defence ministry said earlier that one-third of the budget would be spent on construction projects for military exercises, with the rest for weapons, equipment and salaries.It also comes as many countries are still grappling with the pandemic, while China was the only major economy to report positive growth in 2020 after it largely brought the coronavirus under control. Many Asian nations have scaled back defence spending, with Vietnam and Thailand reducing theirs to increases of 3 per cent and 3.6 per cent for 2021, respectively. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/world/778607/china-defense-spending-gets-mild-boost- amid-economic-caution/story Experts urge government to increase defense spending

FALLING BEHIND: Defense spending has failed to equal 3 percent of GDP, while Israel, which also faces military threats, spends 5 percent of its GDP, an academic said

Military experts yesterday urged the Ministry of National Defense to increase defense spending to at least NT$400 billion (US$14.15 billion).

The academics made the suggestions after China on Friday unveiled its national defense budget of 1.35 trillion yuan (US$208 billion), which is 16 times larger than Taiwan’s defense budget of NT$361.7 billion.

Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), director of the Institute of National Defense and Strategic Research’s division of defense strategy and resources, said the year-on-year increase of Chinese defense spending was political and defense-related.

Navy special forces simulate a counter-infiltration operation during a drill in Kaohsiung on Jan. 27.

Photo: EPA-EFE The year 2027 would mark the centennial of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which it plans to celebrate by launching its third carrier, and continuing production of Type 075 amphibious assault ships, Type 096 ballistic missile submarines and H-20 stealth bombers, Su said.

The new units would allow China to stabilize its influence within the first island chain and further project its power into the second island chain, satisfying Beijing’s military and political goals, he said. The increased production of military hardware would also be in line with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) promotion of a “dual circulation” strategy, as it would stimulate the economy, bolster the military and achieve political stability, Su said.

Su also said the ministry should scale its defense spending to at least NT$400 billion to balance the military’s upkeep costs and investment in precision munition and platforms.

National Taiwan University associate professor of political science Chen Shih-min (陳世 民) said that the disparity in defense spending across the Taiwan Strait has been extant for many years, adding that the Chinese military’s near-daily incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone over the past half year is clearly hostile and threatening.

Despite this, Taiwan’s national defense has failed to comprise 3 percent of its GDP, while Israel, which faces military threats that are no less severe than Taiwan’s, has maintained defense spending equal to 5 percent of its GDP, he said.

Chen said that he was not arguing for a military arms race with China, but current defense spending would be hard-pressed to keep up with the cost of arms sales packages announced under former US president Donald Trump and President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡 英文) adoption of an indigenous arms manufacturing program.

Sheu Jyh-shyang (許智翔), a postdoctoral fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said that the disparate funding available to Taiwan and Chinese militaries lends more credence to support asymmetric warfare.

Sheu cited the use of large quantities of precision munitions to target platforms developed by China, as an example of goals for Taiwan to focus on.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2021/03/07/2003753388

Pentagon Announces Nominees to Lead INDO- PACOM, Pacific Fleet

Adm. John Aquilino, Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet speaks during the 79th Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day ceremony at the Pearl Harbor National Memorial in Honolulu, Hawaii. US Navy Photo

U.S. Pacific Fleet commander Adm. John Aquilino is the Biden administration pick to be the next head of all U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific, the Pentagon announced on Saturday.

The announcement affirms the Trump administration’s December pick of Aquilino to take charge of the largest American combatant command, based in Hawaii. The Biden White House gave the previous administration’s selection an additional review before issuing a new announcement today, two sources familiar with the process told USNI News.

Aquilino has served as the head of PACFLT since May 2018. He is a 1984 graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy and a career fighter, pilot flying F-14 Tomcats, F/A-18C Hornets and F/A-18E/F Super Hornets. Aquilino previously served as the commander of U.S. 5th Fleet and also as the deputy chief of naval operations for operations, plans and strategy (OPNAV N3/N5).

Current INDO-PACOM commander Adm. Phil Davidson is expected to retire.

Vice Adm. Samuel Paparo, current commander of U.S. 5th Fleet, has been nominated to replace Aquilino as the four-star admiral in charge of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, according to the same announcement.

Vice Adm. Samuel Paparo, right, commander of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command,

U.S. 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces, meets with sailors during a visit to

Commander Naval Surface Squadron 5 in Bahrain, Nov. 3, 2020. US NAvy Photo

Paparo has severed as the head of U.S. naval forces in the Middle East since August and was formerly the director of operations for U.S. Central Command. He is a graduate of Villanova University and commissioned in 1987. He’s a career aviator, flying F-14 Tomcats and F/A-18 Hornets. He was also an exchange officer with the U.S. Air Force, flying F-15C Eagles with the 71st Fighter Squadron and deploying to Saudi Arabia and Iceland.

In addition to the nominees in the Pacific, the Pentagon announced nominations for new heads of U.S. Southern Command and U.S. Transportation Command.

Army Lt. Gen. Laura Richardson is nominated to lead SOUTHCOM and replace Adm. Craig Faller, who has served in the position since November 2018 and is expected to retire.

Richardson is currently the commander of U.S. Northern Command’s Army branch, Army North.

Air Force Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, current commander of Air Mobility Command, has been tapped to lead U.S. Transportation Command.

Van Ovost will replace Army Gen. Stephen Lyons, who has served in the position since August 2018.

https://news.usni.org/2021/03/06/pentagon-announces-nominees-to-lead-indo-pacom-pacific- fleet US encourages Taiwan to invest in defense: official

MAIN CHALLENGE: The US naval commander warned that China would seek to ‘forcibly change’ the balance of power in the region that would likely be permanent

The US encourages Taiwan to invest in defense and obtain asymmetric defense capabilities, US Navy Admiral Philip Davidson said on Thursday.

Davidson, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, made the remark in a videoconference on defense matters hosted by the American Enterprise Institute think tank.

“China is positioned to achieve overmatch” in its military capability by 2026, he said.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin listens to a question at a media briefing at the Pentagon in Virginia on Feb. 19.

Photo: AP When Beijing is able to, it would “likely choose to forcibly change” the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region, “and I would say the change in that status quo could be permanent,” he said.

“China seeks a new world order, one with Chinese characteristics, as they often said, where Chinese national power is more important than international law,” he added.

In response to questions, Davidson said that China has stepped up activities with military aircraft and warships around Taiwan, including intrusions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and coast guard vessels near the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台). It is crucial for the US to assist and encourage Taiwan to invest in national defense with an emphasis on obtaining defense capabilities and the means to deter an attack, in addition to arms sales and assisting Taiwan in making a strategy of deterrence a reality, he said.

Meanwhile, writing in a document entitled “Memorandum for All Department of Defense Employees,” US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Thursday named China as the “pacing challenge” to US national security.

Highlighting challenges confronting the US, Austin said that department officials and employees must deal with the “proximate” hurdles stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and China.

Other priorities for the department were to address advanced and persistent threats posed by Russia, North Korea and Iran, and by extremist groups in the Middle East, Africa, and south and central Asia; to modernize the department; and to tackle the climate crisis.

“The department will prioritize China as our No. 1 pacing challenge and develop the right operational concepts, capabilities and plans to bolster deterrence and maintain our competitive advantage,” he said.

“We will ensure that our approach toward China is coordinated and synchronized across the enterprise to advance our priorities, integrated into domestic and foreign policy in a whole-of-government strategy, strengthened by our alliances and partnerships, and supported on a bipartisan basis in Congress,” he added.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2021/03/06/2003753325

Portugal Envoy Urges US to Counter Chinese Bid at Key Seaport

FILE - Containers are loaded and unloaded from ships at the Port of Sines, in Sines, Portugal, Feb. 12, 2020.

WASHINGTON - Once the seat of a powerful maritime empire, Portugal is attracting attention from today’s great powers. Analysts warn that unless the U.S. moves quickly, China will soon expand its control over a key Portuguese seaport.

A month from now, the fate of a new terminal at the Port of Sines on Portugal’s southwestern coast is scheduled to be decided.

Sines is “the first deep water port if you go from the United States to Europe, so it’s a very important infrastructure,” Domingos Fezas Vital, Lisbon’s ambassador to the United States, said in a phone interview.

In 2012, the People’s Republic of China acquired a stake in one of the four terminals at the port, drawing attention to Beijing’s strategic design.

“We now have an international bid for a fifth terminal, which will be a second container terminal,” Fezas Vital told VOA. “We would very, very, very much like to have American companies competing for this bid; I think it will be very important to have an American presence in Sines.”

He said it was unimportant whether that bid was “American only (or) American together with friends and allies.”

Eric Brown is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute with a focus on Asia and global strategy.

“It’s clear when you look at the PRC’s Maritime Silk Road -- the oceans-focused component of the Belt and Road Initiative -- that one of their ambitions is to control the littorals of Eurasia and large parts of Africa,” he said in a phone interview. “And I would say that in the grander imaginings of things, that also includes Latin America.

“One of the ways in which they’re attempting to acquire that control is through politically directed economic investments through state-owned enterprises and state-directed enterprises in critical ports that skirt the Pacific, the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean, and increasingly the North Sea and the Baltic states,” he said.

Seen from that perspective, “control of Sines, which is important for the Iberian economy and for southwestern Europe as a whole, is of enormous consequence,” he said.

Brown sees Chinese behavior as that of a “power trader,” an idea recently put forward by Robert D. Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Atkinson writes that China's success in recent decades can be compared to Germany’s achievements from 1900-45.

Portugal

The thesis that Germany acted as a “power tradet” that used trade as a key instrument to gain commercial and military advantage over its adversaries was originally put forth by the late economist Albert O. Hirschman in a book entitled National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade, published in 1945.

What Germany did then, as China does today, is to "exploit the fullest possibilities inherent in foreign trade" to enhance its own power relative to other nations. Atkinson argued that pre-World War II Germany’s national policies and programs "were designed not only to advance its own economic and military power, but to also degrade its adversaries’ economies."

Clyde Prestowitz, founder and president of the Economic Strategy Institute, said America currently lacks both an awareness of what’s at stake and the tools necessary to counter the efforts of state-backed Chinese corporations in places like the Port of Sines. “How many congressmen and senators do you think will have any idea that Portugal wants a U.S. investor in the terminal?” he asked.

Prestowitz, author of a new book centered on America, China and the struggle for global leadership, believes the current model of conducting business and politics, as practiced by the U.S. and other democratic nations, needs to be retooled in order to meet the challenge posed by Beijing.

Under the Chinese model, state-owned corporations are directed to make investments and bids that “a normal company wouldn’t make,” Prestowitz said.

By contrast, “our way, the American, the Anglo-Saxon, the democratic way of running an economy is that the government doesn’t make investments, independent companies are supposed to do that. So this notion of the union between government and business and state-owned corporations and – state-guided corporations – is foreign, is alien to the whole concept of how we run a government,” he said.

FILE - Ship containers are moved at the Port of Sines, in Sines, Portugal, Feb. 12, 2020.

In order to not lose out to Chinese state-backed bids for key infrastructure projects like the Port of Sines, Washington may just have to take a page from Beijing’s playbook, Prestowitz suggested, and put more government muscle behind corporate initiatives.

While American conservatives have traditionally been most skeptical about government efforts to direct the economy, Prestowitz welcomed a Republican-led move under former President Donald Trump in 2019 to reorganize two existing agencies into the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.

The move, he said, was a good start toward giving the United States the tools to fight back against China. Atkinson, for his part, proposes the establishment of a NATO-like trade alliance that would be able to respond “bravely, strategically, and expeditiously” to Chinese economic expansionism and power projection.

https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voa-news-china/portugal-envoy-urges-us-counter-chinese- bid-key-seaport

Russian, Chinese hackers targeted Europe drug regulator: newspaper

By Reuters Staff 3 MIN READ

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - A Russian intelligence agency and Chinese spies were behind cyberattacks on the European Medicines Agency (EMA) last year, Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant reported, citing sources close to the investigation into the breach.

FILE PHOTO: The exterior of EMA, European Medicines Agency is seen in Amsterdam, Netherlands December 18, 2020. REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw/File Photo

The Amsterdam-based European drug regulator in December reported a cyberattack in which documents relating to COVID-19 vaccines and medicines were stolen and leaked on the internet.

The Russian foreign ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment on Saturday, but Moscow has repeatedly denied western allegations of hacking.

China’s foreign ministry was not immediately available for comment. Beijing has said previously it firmly opposes and cracks down on all forms of cyber attacks.

The EMA launched an investigation with Dutch and European law enforcement authorities, but has so far provided no details on who may have carried out the attacks.

De Volkskrant on Saturday reported that the EMA was targeted by Chinese spies in the first half of 2020, followed by Russian intelligence agents later in the year.

The Chinese gained access by hacking the systems of a German university, the newspaper quoted sources as saying, while the Russians are alleged to have exploited flaws in the EMA’s two-step verification login and other types of cyberdefence.

“A criminal investigation by law enforcement authorities and other entities is ongoing and EMA is of course fully cooperating,” EMA spokeswoman Monika Benstetter said in an emailed response, declining further comment.

Reuters was not immediately able to reach the relevant enforcement agencies for comment on Saturday’s report.

The alleged Russian hackers had access to the EMA’s systems for more than a month, the sources told De Volkskrant. They were mainly interested in which countries would use the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech and how much they would buy, the newspaper added.

Pfizer and BioNTech announced soon after the EMA’s initial disclosure that documents relating to their vaccine were accessed in the incident.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-cyber/russian-chinese-hackers-targeted-europe-drug-regulator- newspaper-idUSKBN2AY0F1

South Korean envoy hopes to wrap up talks with U.S. on defense costs

South Korea is seeking to iron out remaining differences and sign a deal with Washington on sharing costs for stationing 28,500 American troops in the country, its chief envoy has said. | REUTERS SEOUL – South Korea is seeking to iron out remaining differences and sign a deal with Washington on sharing costs for stationing 28,500 American troops in the country, its chief envoy has said. Jeong Eun-bo made the comment as he arrived in Washington on Thursday for the first face-to-face talks on Friday with U.S. envoy Donna Welton since President Joe Biden’s administration took office in January. They held their first video conference last month.

The negotiations had been gridlocked after former U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Seoul’s offer to pay 13% more, for a total of about $1 billion a year, and demanded as much as $5 billion.

South Korean sources have raised hopes the Biden administration will agree to a deal close to their proposal. Seoul currently pays Washington about $920 million a year.

“There are issues that we are trying to resolve as much as possible through this upcoming face-to-face meeting,” Jeong said in televised remarks to reporters in Washington.

Jeong said he was hoping the meeting would be the “last round of negotiations,” but added further discussions might be needed.

“We will be working to strike a deal as early as we can,” he added. Both sides are “very close” to agreement, the Yonhap news agency said, citing the U.S. State Department. The department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Seoul has also been pursuing a multiyear deal to head off “operational disturbances” that had arisen as the allies renew it every three five or years, Jeong said.

After the last pact expired at the end of 2019 without a new one, some 4,000 South Koreans working for the U.S. military were placed on unpaid leave, prompting the two countries to scramble for a stopgap agreement to let them return to work.

Jeong’s visit comes as the Biden administration is conducting a review of its North Korea policy and Washington and Seoul are arranging the first trip to South Korea by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

The two Cabinet officials are reportedly scheduled to travel to Japan and South Korea from March 15 to 17. Seoul’s presidential office said on Friday that both sides were discussing their visit but that no details had been set.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/03/06/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia- pacific/south-korea-us-military-budget

30,000 US agencies hacked by Chinese cyber espionage units: Report

The campaign has exploited recently discovered flaws in Microsoft Exchange software, stealing email and infecting computer servers with tools that let attackers take control remotely, Brian Krebs said in a post at his cyber security news website. At least 30,000 US organizations including local governments have been hacked in recent days by an "unusually aggressive" Chinese cyber-espionage campaign, according to a computer security specialist. The campaign has exploited recently discovered flaws in Microsoft Exchange software, stealing email and infecting computer servers with tools that let attackers take control remotely, Brian Krebs said in a post at his cyber security news website. "This is an active threat," White House spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki said when asked about the situation during a press briefing. "Everyone running these servers needs to act now to patch them. We are concerned that there are a large number of victims," she added. After Microsoft released patches for the vulnerabilities on Tuesday, attacks "dramatically stepped up" on servers not yet updated with security fixes, said Krebs, who cited unnamed sources familiar with the situation. "At least 30,000 organizations across the United States including a significant number of small businesses, towns, cities and local governments -- have over the past few days been hacked by an unusually aggressive Chinese cyber espionage unit that's focused on stealing email from victim organizations," Krebs wrote in the post. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/30000-us-agencies-hacked-by-chinese-cyber- espionage-units-report-101614997591868.html

More than 20,000 U.S. organizations compromised through Microsoft flaw

More than 20,000 U.S. organizations have been compromised through a back door installed via recently patched flaws in Microsoft Corp.'s email software, a person familiar with the U.S. government's response said Friday. | REUTERS WASHINGTON – More than 20,000 U.S. organizations have been compromised through a back door installed via recently patched flaws in Microsoft Corp.’s email software, a person familiar with the U.S. government’s response said Friday. The hacking has already reached more places than all of the tainted code downloaded from SolarWinds Corp., the company at the heart of another massive hacking spree uncovered in December.

The latest hack has left channels for remote access spread among credit unions, town governments and small businesses, according to records from the U.S. investigation.

Tens of thousands of organizations in Asia and Europe are also affected, the records show.

The hacks are continuing despite emergency patches issued by Microsoft on Tuesday.

Microsoft, which had initially said the hacks consisted of “limited and targeted attacks,” declined to comment on the scale of the problem on Friday but said it was working with government agencies and security companies to provide help to customers.

It added, “impacted customers should contact our support teams for additional help and resources.”

One scan of connected devices showed only 10% of those vulnerable had installed the patches by Friday, though the number was rising. Because installing the patch does not get rid of the back doors, U.S. officials are racing to figure out how to notify all the victims and guide them in their hunt.

All of those affected appear to run Web versions of email client Outlook and host them on their own machines, instead of relying on cloud providers. That may have spared many of the biggest companies and federal government agencies, the records suggest.

The federal Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency did not respond to a request for comment.

Earlier on Friday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters that the vulnerabilities found in Microsoft’s widely used Exchange servers were “significant,” and “could have far-reaching impacts.”

“We’re concerned that there are a large number of victims,” Psaki said.

Microsoft and the person working with the U.S. response blamed the initial wave of attacks on a Chinese government-backed actor. A Chinese government spokesman said the country was not behind the intrusions.

What started as a controlled attack late last year against a few classic espionage targets grew last month to a widespread campaign. Security officials implied that unless China had changed tactics, a second group may have become involved.

More attacks are expected from other hackers as the code used to take control of the mail servers spreads.

The hackers have only used the back doors to re-enter and move around the infected networks in a small percentage of cases, probably less than 1 in 10, the person working with the government said.

“A couple hundred guys are exploiting them as fast as they can,” stealing data and installing other ways to return later, he said.

The initial avenue of attack was discovered by prominent Taiwanese cyber-researcher Cheng-Da Tsai, who said he reported the flaw to Microsoft in January. He said in a blog post that he was investigating whether the information leaked.

He did not respond to requests for further comment.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/03/06/world/microsoft-cyberattacks-us-china/

Seizing Weakness’: The Geopolitical Dimension of U.S.-China Relations

By Francis P. Sempa March 06, 2021 The Atlantic Council recently released “The Longer Telegram,” a China strategy proposal written by an anonymous former U.S. national security official consciously emulating the 1947 article “The Sources of Soviet Conduct,” which appeared in Foreign Affairs under the pseudonym “X” (later revealed as the State Department’s Director of Policy Planning George F. Kennan) and advocated for the policy of containment. A year before “The Sources of Soviet Conduct” appeared, Kennan had written a 5000-word telegram from Moscow (which was known thereafter as “The Long Telegram”) warning Washington about the emerging Soviet threat to the global balance of power.

The Atlantic Council paper made headlines throughout the world. It presents China's economic, military and political challenges to U.S. global interests in stark terms. It analyzes China's strengths and potential vulnerabilities. It discusses China's internal political dynamics and suggests that the United States can favorably influence China’s internal political evolution. The paper also defines “core” U.S. global interests and contends that U.S. long- term strategy must be based on four fundamental pillars of American power: military, economic, technological, and values. It emphasizes the importance of alliances to counter both regional and global threats and calls for a U.S. "rebalance" in its relationship with Russia. It identifies areas of strategic competition and strategic cooperation between the U.S. and China. It concludes with a call for the current generation of Americans to be a worthy successor to the greatest generation “who defeated tyranny to preserve not just the nation, but the world.”

Less publicly heralded but more focused and persuasive is the recently released study of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments entitled Seizing On Weakness: Allied Strategy for Competing With China’s Globalizing Military. Written by Toshi Yoshihara and Jack Bianchi, the study is less concerned than "The Longer Telegram" is with "soft power" and instead highlights China’s strategic and geopolitical weaknesses that U.S. strategy should seek to exploit. Yoshihara and Bianchi state at the outset that the key factor of 21st century geopolitics is that China is becoming a global, as opposed to just a regional, military power. China’s growing maritime strategic reach and its Eurasian-based Belt and Road Initiative must be countered, they write, by “strategies based on a sound and balanced assessment of Chinese power, including its strengths and weaknesses.”

Yoshihara and Bianchi have mined Chinese open sources to explain the Chinese Communist Party’s conception of national power and its strategic goals. Chinese strategists use the phrase “comprehensive national power” to measure “all implements of statecraft, ranging from military strength to cultural attractiveness.” And President Xi Jinping has not been shy about promoting the strategic goal of replacing the United States as the organizer of the world order.

The authors explain that American foreign policy toward China must aim at forestalling China’s attempt to translate Eurasian land power into global sea power. This is Classical Geopolitics 101. The study quotes Carnes Lord’s observation that “if Beijing were to achieve greatness at sea, 'it would be a remarkable, if not singular event in the history of the last two millennia.’” Yoshihara and Bianchi do not recommend a passive doctrine of containment. “This is not the time to underestimate China or to downplay the challenges the PLA will likely pose across the world’s oceans,” they write. The United States and its allies “must not take comfort in China’s weaknesses. Waiting or wishing for Beijing to fail is not an option.” Chinese weaknesses, they write, must be exploited and soon because “weaknesses are not static” and China over time may overcome or neutralize its weaknesses, or even convert them into strengths.”

What are those weaknesses? First, there is China’s “looming demographic crisis,” an aging population and a declining working-age population. This will cause “fiscal pressures” that can lead to domestic political unrest. Chinese leaders recognize this weakness and have taken steps (such as ending the “one-child policy”) to alleviate the demographic time bomb.

A second China weakness is geostrategic: China is confronted by potential continental adversaries, such as India, Vietnam, South Korea, and Russia, and its long sea coast is geographically hemmed-in by island chains. Chinese strategists view China as a "composite land-sea power," and its Belt and Road Initiative aims to strengthen both its land and sea components of power, which could lead to overstretching or exhaustion over time. The authors quote two prominent Chinese analysts who recognize that China’s geography “has imposed an unavoidable constraint on the simultaneous development of landpower and seapower,” yet they also write that China “cannot neglect either seapower or landpower. Both fists must be hard.”

Here, too, China has made diplomatic and military moves to convert this weakness into a geostrategic strength. In the realm of sea power, China has invested heavily in a blue water navy, developed ports in strategic Indo-Pacific locations, and used intimidation to extend its reach in the South China Sea. On land, China’s diplomacy has strengthened ties with Russia to form a 21st-century version of the old Sino-Soviet bloc.

China also continues to experience weaknesses in its power projection capabilities. The authors explain that global power projection depends on forces and bases. China is working to strengthen both components, but it remains well behind the United States in global power projection capabilities. And China will inevitably face its own version of the so-called Lippmann Gap—the limits imposed on commitments by insufficient resources.

Yoshihara and Bianchi urge the United States and its allies to develop “long-term strategies that target Chines vulnerabilities.” Such strategies should include raising China’s “costs of empire” just as the U.S. and its allies did to the Soviet Union in the 1980s; strengthening U.S. Eurasian alliances and exploiting potential Sino-Russian tensions; countering Beijing’s diplomatic forays throughout Eurasia and Africa; bolstering U.S. naval power along the island chains off China’s coast; and exploiting China’s social, economic, and technological weaknesses.

The strategic goal set forth in Seizing On Weakness is to prevent the geopolitical nightmare envisioned by the great British geopolitical theorist Halford Mackinder in his 1904 paper “The Geographical Pivot of History” and his 1919 book Democratic Ideals and Reality. Historically, China today presents the same challenge Napoleonic France posed to Great Britain early in the 19th century and that Wilhelmine Germany, Nazi Germany, and the Soviet Union posed to Britain and the United States in the 20th century. And in the long run, maintaining naval supremacy is the key to victory in this new Cold War. To paraphrase Alfred Thayer Mahan, it is those far distant storm-beaten American and allied warships that stand between China and the dominion of the world. https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/03/06/seizing_weakness_the_geopolitical_dimension _of_us-china_relations_767008.html

How China Starts World War III Against America: Attack the Bases

Beijing has a lot of missiles that could quickly strike American air and sea bases throughout the Western Pacific. by

Key point: American bases may deter China, but they also likely pose easy, tempting targets. Would those bases be a boon or a lost cause in the event of war?

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Last week the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Center (USSC) set policy circles aflutter when it issued a novella-length report that questions the staying power of U.S. military strategy in the Indo-Pacific theater while urging inhabitants of the region to take up their share of the defense burden vis-à-vis a domineering China. Read the whole thing.

In one sense the report presents little new information or insight. That the U.S. military has retooled itself for counterinsurgency warfare and must now reinvent itself again for great-power strategic competition is old news. So is the notion that Washington suffers from strategic ADHD, taking on new commitments around the world willy-nilly while shedding few old ones to conserve finite resources and policy energy. Over the past decade-plus, it’s become plain that Communist China is a serious, strategically-minded maritime contender and has equipped itself with formidable shore-based weaponry to assail U.S. and allied bases in the region and supply firepower support to its increasingly impressive battle fleet. Beijing can now hope to fend off U.S. reinforcements from coming to the aid of regional allies, to slow them down, or to make the effort so expensive in terms of lives and hardware that no U.S. president would order the attempt. If it does any of these things it could spring a fait accompli on the region, accomplishing limited goals before powerful outsiders could intercede.

This is old—if still potent—wine in a new bottle.

And yet. The report is clearly written and forceful, no small virtues. It adds a welcome new voice to the chorus—and that voice booms out from the region rather than from such precincts as Washington, DC or Newport, RI. One hopes the leadership in Canberra listens up, and other Indo-Pacific governments wary of Chinese Communist Party pretensions should bend an ear as well. The USSC coauthors’ central message— that the United States can no longer provide for common security alone and must have help—is precisely correct. They stop short of espousing an Asian NATO by name, but they invoke the basic concept underlying the Atlantic Alliance, namely “collective defense.” Allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific must shoulder their part of the defense burden, just as Europeans helped stave off the Soviet menace.

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For its part, Washington must stop trying to do it all alone—and afford allies and friends the deference their interests and contributions warrant. All parties to the common defense must readjust not just strategy, resources, and hardware but also their way of thinking about these matters. They must nurture a culture of collective defense.

Three points the report puts forward are worth exploring: culture, strategy and operations, and alliance building and maintenance. First, culture. Note the coauthors: “In an era of constrained budgets and multiplying geopolitical flashpoints, prioritizing great power competition with China means America’s armed forces must scale back other global responsibilities.” But culture is a stubborn thing—and the strategic culture in Washington lags behind disconcerting new realities. The report maintains that “political leaders and much of the foreign policy establishment remain wedded to a superpower mindset that regards America’s role in the world as defending an expansive liberal order.” Acting as the lone custodian of the world order, including freedom of the sea, sets the United States up for strategic overreach and failure. Something will give.

The classics of strategy instruct statesmen and military commanders to wind down commitments or theaters that have outlived their usefulness, that no longer command the same importance they once did, or that have come to consume resources needed for more pressing priorities. That’s easy to say. It’s a simple matter of toting up costs and benefits, estimating the opportunity costs of one commitment against another, applying resources to the most important priorities, and downgrading or jettisoning the rest. But breaking up is hard to do, even with an Afghanistan, where eighteen years of combat and diplomacy have yet to yield a durable sovereign government. Why such obtuse stick-to-it-iveness? Because every foreign commitment attracts a constituency within the establishment, the think-tank sector, or academia. That constituency sees its chosen commitment as the top priority for Washington, bar none, and clamors tirelessly for policy attention and resources. For bureaucratic institutions the easiest path is to try to please everyone and do everything. Yet setting and enforcing priorities is what strategy is at its most fundamental. Political leaders must harden their hearts when deciding on policy and strategy. If the Indo-Pacific is now the most critical geopolitical theater, other worthwhile commitments may have to give way.

Second, strategy and operations. The Australian coauthors do not counsel despair. They deny that “America is becoming a paper tiger.” It still fields “the world’s largest and most sophisticated armed forces; and is likely to continue to supply the central elements of any military counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific.” Still, “the United States’ longstanding ability to uphold a favorable regional balance of power by itself faces mounting and ultimately insurmountable challenges.” Just so. But let’s not sell ourselves short, either as the U.S. armed forces or as part of alliances that have endured for seven decades. It may be the case that Fortress China now boasts the capacity to reach out and smite allied military bases, or even forces in the field. But let’s refuse to succumb to a reverse form of the fallacy of “script writing.” We have options.

Scriptwriting in strategy reduces a living, thinking, impassioned foe to an inert, docile mass on which we work our will. Scriptwriters in Los Angeles or New York develop storylines that instruct the characters in a drama or sitcom what to do, and the actors do it. But in strategic competition or warfare, some of the “actors” in our script are under no obligation to play the part we set out for them. In fact, they have every incentive to go off-script and wreck our production so that they can fulfill goals diametrically opposed to our own. Now flip that logic around. Sure, Communist China may be able to pound our legacy infrastructure or forces. But the United States and its allies aren’t lifeless masses. We too have ingenuity and the desire to prevail. Let’s refuse to follow Beijing’s script—and figure out how to ruin its production.

How do multinational and joint forces go off China’s script? The U.S. Studies Center insists that girding for strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific “will not be easy or cheap. On the contrary, it will require major changes to the U.S. military’s force structure, regional posture and concepts of operations, only some of which are currently in train.” But dodging the brunt of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) strategy while giving PLA commanders strategic headaches may be less burdensome than all that. Read the Commandant’s Planning Guidance issued by the new U.S. Marine Corps leadership last month. Geography favors the allies. They can deploy low-cost measures along the first island chain, throwing up a barricade to Chinese maritime movement between the China seas, the Western Pacific, and the Indian Ocean. Small bodies of ground troops could fan out along the island chain, using volleys of anti-ship missiles to halt surface traffic. Sea mines, diesel submarines, and surface patrol craft could lend their firepower to the mix. Etc.

There’s no free lunch in strategy, but such measures could levy some serious military, economic, and diplomatic pain at manageable cost to the allies. One leading strategy professor in China pronounces challenging such a strategy a “suicide mission” for the PLA. If that reflects how Chinese Communist magnates reckon matters, then the prospects for deterrence—and thus for peacetime strategic success—may be brighter and more affordable than the Australian team lets on. Offbeat approaches to force design, operations, and strategy merit debating in allied circles.

And third, alliance building and maintenance. There are unmistakable signs that what the strategic canon calls a “community of interest” is gelling around the idea of counterbalancing Chinese overreach. What the U.S. Studies Center depicts as a brave new world in the Indo-Pacific is in many ways a return to geopolitical business as usual. During the Cold War, few deluded themselves that the United States could deter or defeat the Soviet empire all by itself. Allies chipped in niche capabilities without which the U.S. armed forces would have found it hard to execute their strategy. For instance, I was grateful to NATO navies for supplying minesweepers in the Persian Gulf back in 1991. Approaching the Kuwaiti coast would have been perilous in the extreme without Europeans running interference for us. Mine warfare is a traditional zone of neglect for the U.S. Navy—not so for the allies. Same goes for the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, whose diesel submarines prowled along the first island chain throughout the Cold War to cramp communist maritime movement. Another niche but invaluable capability. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/how-china-starts-world-war-iii-against-america-attack- bases-179460

Meet the USS Montana: The U.S. Navy's Most Advanced Sub Ever?

These latest submarines continue to inform the Navy’s expanded mission envelope for attack submarines, given their increased ability to conduct undersea reconnaissance. by Kris Osborn

Here’s What You Need to Remember: The U.S. Navy has now launched the USS Montana, its final Block III Virginia-class attack submarine, a much-anticipated development intended to bring new levels of undersea warfare technology and mission possibilities to the Navy. The new boat set sail from Huntington Ingalls shipyard in Newport News, Va., on March 3.

The Virginia Block III boats incorporate a handful of next-generation innovations to include a more capable, technically advanced Large Aperture Bow sonar array bringing new undersea surveillance and reconnaissance options to submarine commanders as well as “Lock Out Trunk” configuration to improve Special Operations forces mission transport. A Lock Out Trunk, which could be described as a specially engineered compartment enabling Navy SEALs to exit the boat for clandestine missions without the submarine needing to surface. Mine-detection, covert attacks and rescue missions as well as undersea scout missions are all safer and less detectable with Block III.

“The USS Montana can attack targets ashore with highly accurate Tomahawk cruise missiles. It can conduct covert long-term surveillance of the land, the littorals and the sea. It elevates our anti-submarine and anti-ship power. It gives us an edge in mine delivery and detection. It extends the global reach of our special forces,” former Acting Undersecretary of the Navy, Gregory J. Slavonic, said in a Navy report at the USS Montana christening last Fall.

Alongside these innovations, Block III boats also incorporate a cutting-edge “fly-by- wire” computerized navigational system. What this does is draw upon computer automation to set the speed and depth of the submarine while human decisionmakers remain in a command and control capacity. This kind of “joystick” operated system brings submarine technology beyond hydraulic systems and even opens the door to the prospect of various applications of AI. For example, perhaps the submarine can launch mini undersea, mine-hunting drones from its missile tubes and instantly gather, organize and analyze incoming sonar signals to transmit precisely configured, timely data to submarine commanders. Incoming return signals can, using AI, be bounced instantly against an existing database of compiled information such as threat libraries, mine-configurations or even surface ship maneuvers to locate enemy positions. Threat signatures that might take longer to find and identify can be cataloged and transmitted on an exponentially faster timeframe, helping attack submarines stay in front of an adversary’s decision cycle. The boats are also built with a fiber optic periscope cable enabling commanders to view their surroundings from anywhere within the submarine, as opposed to just beneath the top of the boat on a periscope.

AI has even progressed to the point wherein incoming threat scenario data can instantly be compared against specific, cataloged counterattack or defensive responses to help optimize decision-making for human commanders. Perhaps one threat scenario might require an immediate torpedo launch, whereas another might need to inform surface ships of approaching enemy boats and a third response may simply be to change course or surface. Advanced computer databases, enabled by AI-empowered computer algorithms able to perform analytics in seconds, can find, compare and analyze which prior responses best addressed the threat circumstance and make informed calculations regarding which weapon, counterattack or responsive course of action might best be suited for a given situation. These are the kinds of emerging technical capabilities now likely being introduced to submarine computer systems, the kinds of innovations now better enabled by Block III Virginia-class boats.

Block III is also continuing to inform the Navy’s expanded mission envelope for attack submarines, given their increased ability to conduct undersea reconnaissance. For example, newer Virginia-class submarine variants could patrol coastal areas searching for enemy mines with forward operating Unmanned Undersea Vessels (UUVs) able to identify threats. This increases an ability to conduct clandestine surveillance missions and enables operations in areas less accessible to deeper drafts and potentially more vulnerable surface ships.

Part of the reason Virginia-class Block III submarines bring a new ability for undersea reconnaissance is due to a series of innovations pioneered several years ago on a testbed prototype submarine called the USS South Dakota. The USS South Dakota is now deployed and some of its new innovations are operational, a development introducing new performance technologies. While the specifics of these systems are not discussed by Navy developers for obvious security reasons, senior submarine developers with the service explain they contain a new generation of quieting technologies, something which naturally improves an ability to operate without detection. The pace of arrival of Virginia-class submarines is also of great significance to the Navy, given that the service has for many years now been working with Congress to substantially uptick Virginia-class submarine production to help mitigate an expected submarine fleet deficit in coming years. Following extensive work with Congress to secure additional funding for the highly prioritized undersea warfare fleet, the Navy conducted several industrial base assessments and was able to determine that the capacity exists to build up to three per year starting in 2025. The pace at which Los Angeles class submarines are retiring, not to mention a growing and increasingly concerning Chinese submarine force, has inspired the Navy to uptick the production rate of its submarines and sustain accelerated development even as the new Columbia- class submarines begin to come online.

Interestingly, some of the Block III innovations are being built into the emerging fleet of nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines called the Columbia class. The Columbia, believed to potentially become the stealthiest submarine ever to exist, will incorporate the fiber optic periscope as well as fly-by-wire computerized navigation, among other things.

As for what’s next, a statement from one of the major Virginia-class submarine builders, Huntington Ingalls, quotes Jason Ward, Newport News’ vice president of Virginia-class submarine construction saying, “we look forward to executing our waterborne test program, and working toward sea trials and delivering the submarine to the Navy later this year.”

Finally, all of this paves the way toward Virginia-class Block IV, Block V and Block VI boats, not to mention a next-generation class of attack submarines now in the conceptual phase. Block V, well known for its Virginia Payload Modules, will bring a massive amount of new firepower by bringing the submarine’s Tomahawk-firing capacity from 12 up to 40.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/meet-uss-montana-us-navys-most-advanced-sub-ever-179480

GRSE Lays Keel for Indian Navy’s 3rd Project P17A Stealth Frigate

Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers Limited (GRSE) has laid the keel of the Yard 3024, a ship of the Advanced Stealth Frigate Project, P 17A.

“Another milestone achieved at GRSE. Keel of Y3024, last of 3 stealth frigates under Project P17A laid by Vice Admiral S Naithani Controller Warship Production & Acquisition, Indian Navy. The Ship is being built using Integrated Construction concept to compress the build period,” Vipin Kumar Saxena, Chairman and Managing Director, GRSE, tweeted Saturday. The company said in a release that the contract for construction of Project 17A warships is the largest ever order awarded to the shipyard by the Ministry of Defence with a value of over INR 19,293 crore. The shipyard launched the first ship of P17A Stealth Frigate “INS Himgiri” ahead of schedule on December 14, 2020. The P17A guided missile frigate will be 149 m long, will have a displacement of approximately 6670 tonnes, and will feature advanced CODOG Propulsion enabling speed of over 28 knots. These complex platforms are equipped with powerful weapon and sensor package capable of neutralising threats in all three dimensions of Air, Surface & Sub-surface. P17A Stealth Frigates are being built using Integrated Construction Methodology with enhanced pre-outfitting to enhance quality and reduce build periods. Italian company Fincantieri is providing the technology upgrade and capability enhancement in this project. https://www.defenseworld.net/news/29098/GRSE_Lays_Keel_for_Indian_Navy___s_3rd_Project_P17A _Stealth_Frigate

A hip-fired electromagnetic anti-drone rifle

The war on drones has advanced well beyond the cranky neighbor with a shotgun.

A new anti-drone kit billed as the Swiss Army Knife of drone defenses just debuted from French company CERBAIR. The drone detection and mitigation tool -- the business end of which is a hip-fired electromagnetic rifle -- is emblematic of a growing urgency to develop security tools for guarding against rogue drone attacks.

The prevalence and growing sophistication of drones has created a serious obstacle for law enforcement. Commercially available drones can be used to threaten government officials and carry out attacks during public gatherings and events. A joint multi-agency threat assessment issued prior to then-incoming President Biden's inauguration listed drones as a potential threat. Violent non-state actors have already been known to use drones in combat. "Although these drones are about the size of a watermelon and may have a range of only a few miles, they still pose a risk," writes Thomas Braun in his paper Miniature Menace in the journal Wild Blue Yonder. "In the hands of a [violent non-state actor], these small, inexpensive consumer drones are modified into "killer bees" capable of creating significant damage and terrorizing civilian and military populations." The terrorist organization ISIL established a drone division, says Braun, citing one example, and cartel groups in Central and South America have deployed drone technology for various purposes. With a growing recognition of the threat of white supremacy and right wing militias around the world, security forces are on guard against drone attacks--a militarized right wing group in the Ukraine has stockpiled drones and other weapons, for example. Also: Best surveillance drone for security and business in 2021 All of which points to the need for effective drone countermeasures. Not surprisingly, a number of technologies for detecting, identifying, tracking, and disabling drones have come to market in the past few years. Radio frequency analyzers effectively detect radio waves sent between drones and their controllers and some units with multiple dispersed antennas can triangulate signal origin location. Acoustic sensors, such as those from Squarehead Technologies, work well in short-range scenarios where there isn't a lot of background noise, and optical sensors, including infrared and thermal sensors, as well as visual spectrum cameras, are commonly deployed to track drones. In line with other aircraft detection, radar is also frequently used to track drones. Things start to get exotic when it comes to disabling drones. Devices include RF jammers to disrupt the signal between the drone and the controller, GPS spoofers to confuse a drone about its location, net guns, lasers, and even birds trained to disable drones in flight. The CERBAIR kit includes a backpack and vest with a detection module, a command and control tablet and an electromagnetic effector. According to the company, drone detection is processed by omnidirectional analysis of radio frequency spectrum. Once the alert has been given (both visual and audio), the azimuthal location of the rogue drone and its pilot are tracked using a directional antenna.

Because the kit tracks a rogue drone's location, the electromagnetic gun can be used beyond line of sight.

Of course, the arms race is bound to work both ways. As more police and security forces utilize drones for surveillance, the prevalence of anti-drone technology may become an increasing liability. For the time being, CERBAIR's kit is being used, among others, by special forces that protect heads of state.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/an-electromagnetic-anti-drone-gun/

PH COVID vaccination: Where are we and what we should expect

Published March 6, 2021, 7:48 PM by Martin Sadongdong After repeated heartbreak and headache due to the delays of what was promised to be a smooth and early delivery of vaccines, the Philippines finally rolled out its free vaccination program against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on March 1.

(JANSEN ROMERO / MANILA BULLETIN) Now the question is, where are we in the vaccination program and what should the Filipinos expect at least for the rest of the year? Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr., vaccine czar and chief implementer of the National Task Force COVID-19, said Saturday, March 6, that the country now has an available supply of “more than one million” vaccine doses. Here is the breakdown: 600,000 doses from Sinovac Biotech Ltd. and 487,200 vials from British-Swede drugmaker AstraZeneca and University of Oxford in England. The CoronaVac vaccines from Sinovac were delivered on February 28 and were actually donations by the Chinese government to the country. The Chinese- made vaccines were used in the vaccination roll-out last Monday and as of this writing, around 350,000 Sinovac jabs were already distributed to around 100 hospitals all over the country, according to Galvez. Meanwhile, the AstraZeneca vaccines were part of the first batch of supply from the Covax facility, a coalition led by the World Health Organization (WHO) which aims to provide all countries with an equal access to the supply of COVID-19 vaccines. The Philippines is part of this global initiative, thus, it is assured of a supply that will enable the vaccination of 20 percent of its population. The initial commitment made by the Covax facility to the country was that they will deliver 525,600 doses of AstraZeneca vaccines on March 1. It got delayed due to issues on supply and logistics until the first batch — consisted of 487,200 doses — were finally delivered on March 4. The initial rollout using the AstraZeneca jabs happened on Saturday, March 6, at the Ospital ng Paranaque in Paranaque City. Vaccine priority With the required two doses per vaccinee, the current supply of 1,087,200 vaccine doses from Sinovac and AstraZeneca will be used to inoculate less than half of the total 1.7 million healthcare workers in the country. “Due to the limited global supply of vaccines and following the recommendation of the National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (NITAG) along with the directive of President Rodrigo Roa Duterte, the allocation of vaccines must strictly follow the priority framework issued by the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) to ensure that those who have the highest risk of exposure and death will be protected,” Galvez said. The government’s framework prioritizes medical frontliners and healthcare workers in the vaccine queue. They are followed by senior citizens, people with co-morbidities, and other government workers and economic frontliners. After the vaccination of the priority sectors, the general public will be the next to get the shots and Galvez said it might be achieved by May — when the bulk of vaccines purchased by the government arrive. Commitments, negotiations Within this month, Galvez said that the government is expecting the delivery of one million doses of Sinovac vaccines that it procured from China. The purchase order was signed on March 4, he said. Aside from this, the vaccine czar bared that Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian assured him of another 400,000 doses of Sinovac to make their vaccine donations reach one million, too. Meanwhile, Galvez offered different figures as to the total number of vaccine doses that will come from the Covax facility. During the vaccination rollout in Marikina City last Tuesday, he said around 3.5 million doses are expected to be delivered from the Covax facility within the month. But during the vaccine rollout in Paranaque City on Saturday, he said they are anticipating the arrival of around 4.5 to 4.9 million vaccine doses from Covax. The government has also an ongoing negotiation with American pharmaceutical company Pfizer for the delivery of 117,000 vaccine doses. It was originally scheduled for delivery last month but got postponed due to the indemnification requirements of Pfizer. The requirement assures that Pfizer will not be subjected to any litigation once a vaccinee experiences an adverse effect. Galvez added that a supply agreement was already signed Saturday for the delivery of an undisclosed number of Moderna vaccines from the United States. In February, Galvez said the government was negotiating with Moderna to secure 20 million doses of its vaccine. The government also has ongoing negotiations with other firms including US’ Johnson & Johnson, 30 million doses of Novavax from the Serum Institute of India, and Russia’s Gamaleya among others. He said the negotiations were meant to acquire enough supply of vaccines and reach the government’s goal of vaccinating around 70 million Filipinos before the year 2021 ends. According to the Department of Health, the vaccination of 70 million Filipinos will enable the country to achieve herd immunity, a form of indirect protection which occurs when a sufficient percentage of the population becomes immune to an infectious disease.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/covid19-pandemic-who-warns-against-letting-guard- down-101615055610410.htm Pandemic origin: WHO to publish report on Mar 15

The controversy over the investigation organised by the World Health Organization and China about the origins of Covid-19 heated up as a group of scientists called for an independent probe to consider all hypotheses and nail down whether the virus came from an animal. Agencies, Geneva PUBLISHED ON MAR 06, 2021 01:25 AM IST

The international investigation into the Covid-19 pandemic’s origins in China will publish its report in the week of March 15, the World Health Organization’s chief has said. The report was originally due to be published in two stages: an initial summary in February followed by the full text. However, they will both now be released at the same time, said WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. “I know that many member states are eager to see the report of the joint WHO-led study on the origins of the Sars-CoV-2 virus -- and of course so am I,” Tedros said in a speech to the UN health agency’s member countries on Thursday. “The team is working on its final report as well as an accompanying summary report, which we understand will be issued simultaneously in the week of the 15th of March. Rest assured that when the reports are ready, we will ask the expert team to share the reports with member states ahead of their release, and to brief you on the findings.” The first Covid-19 cases were reported in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019. The international investigation in the city only began in January 2021 and wrapped up last month. A team of international scientific experts spent four weeks in Wuhan visiting sites linked to early cases. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/pandemic-origin-who-to-publish-report-on-mar-15- 101614973967474.html

Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World

The world is bracing for a new wave of Covid-19 infections, as the coronavirus pandemic has infected more than 115 million people and killed more than 2.5 million globally since late January 2020. Efforts many countries took to stamp out the pneumonia-like illness led to entire nations enforcing lockdowns, widespread halts of international travel, mass layoffs and battered financial markets. Recent attempts to revive social life and financial activities have resulted in another surge in cases and hospitalizations, though new drugs and improved care may help more people who get seriously ill survive. The epicenter of the pandemic has continued to shift throughout the year, from China, then Europe, then the U.S., and now to developing countries like Brazil. Cases globally surpassed 10 million in late June, but ever since infections have been multiplying faster. The U.S. and India have the most infections, accounting for more than a third of all cases combined.

Countries took drastic measures to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 on their homefront— with varying degrees of success. More than 140 governments placed blanket bans on incoming travelers, closed schools and restricted gatherings and public events, according to data compiled by Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government and Bloomberg reporting.

As countries loosen lockdowns in an effort to reboot their economies, many have seen a resurgence of infections. The number of new daily cases in the U.S. rose to record highs after some states relaxed social distancing requirements. Even places that successfully contained infections earlier in the year, like China and South Korea, have seen cases bubble back up. Theories that warmer weather in the Northern Hemisphere would bring relief appear to be unfounded.

The “worst is yet to come” given a lack of global solidarity, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the World Health Organization, said at a briefing in Geneva on June 29.

In May, the WHO emphasized the need for a plan that includes testing for the virus and its antibodies, effective contact tracing and isolation, and community education. Antibody tests on the market that could potentially indicate a person’s immunity have been unreliable so far. Researchers and drugmakers are racing to develop treatments that could hold the key to recovery. Gilead Sciences Inc.’s antiviral remdesivir is one of the first widely used drugs for Covid- 19. It received an emergency use authorization from U.S. regulators in May, after a trial found it sped recovery by about four days in hospitalized patients. It was also part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s treatment after he tested positive for the coronavirus in early October, along with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s antibody cocktail and the generic drug dexamethasone.

Vaccines are also in development, though the study of one leading candidate from the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc is on hold in the U.S. while regulators investigate a potential safety issue.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-cases-world-map/?srnd=coronavirus

The Biden Security Agenda: An Initial Assessment

03/05/2021

By Richard Weitz

The past few weeks have made clearer the Biden administration’s initial national security priorities—engage in extensive outreach abroad and comprehensive policy reviews at home.

The administration still needs to make some tough choices—how much to press European allies to heed U.S. priorities regarding Russia and China, how to strengthen cooperative security ties with non-allied partners like India, and how best to sustain defense power in a challenging budgetary environment.

The administration’s top international priority is to strengthen U.S. defense alliances and partnerships.

Last week’s NATO defense ministerial and Munich Security Conference highlighted both challenges and opportunities regarding Europe. Although President Joe Biden and the European leaders jointly affirmed a desire to improve general ties, the speakers notably avoided mentioning divisive topics, such as the Nord Stream pipeline, foreshadowing persistent policy differences on these issues.

On the positive side, despite postponing a decision on the timing of any troop withdrawals from Afghanistan pending the Pentagon’s own review, the NATO allies made an unexpectedly strong commitment to a major troop increase in Iraq, which will relieve some of the pressure on both the U.S. and Iraqi governments over the continuing U.S. military presence. Everything being equal, the more U.S. troops in Iraq are embedded in a multilateral coalition, the less the Iraqi public will object to their residual presence, which will help balance Iran’s regional ambitions. The administration is still determining how to reign these in even as it strives for a settlement of the nuclear dispute with Tehran, whose resolution may weaken U.S. leverage.

One sees sharper continuities between the Trump and Biden administrations regarding Asia. U.S. officials continue to employ the “Indo-Pacific” framework of the previous administration, which both raises India’s profile regarding China and separates India from Pakistan.

Yet, the administration has yet to articulate its strategy for deepening cooperation among U.S. allies in Asia who still have stronger security ties with the United States than with each other. Other questions how to build on the region’s disparate national missile defense programs, whether the Pentagon will continue to seek to base intermediate- range missiles in the western Pacific, and how to develop the Indian-U.S. defense relationship now that the four Indo-U.S. foundational defense agreements have been adopted.

Managing “the primary pacing challenge” from China will present a comparable, albeit different, challenge than defeating the Soviet Union in the Cold War. As with the Soviet Union, the most likely path for a U.S. war with China is the U.S. commitment to defend regional allies, such as Taiwan, from military attack.

Unlike the USSR, China lacks strong ideological allies or proxy military partners. But the PRC has a substantially stronger economic and technological foundation that allows Beijing to exert considerable diplomatic pressure on U.S. partners while building the sinews for a more powerful military punch in the future through its skillful civil-military fusion strategy.

At home, the administration has focused on enlarging the national security agenda to include climate change, de-extremism, diversity and inclusion, and other previously marginalized issues. Senior officials have also begin composing a new National Defense Strategy, reviewing the U.S. force posture and structure, and compiling new budgets for the U.S. national security agencies. The Trump administration made progress in funding and developing new national security space capabilities and missions. The Defense Department may now need a review of its space-related roles and missions to clarify which services will lead which novel functions.

Downward pressure on the defense budget will likely increase over time from both congressional progressives and budget hawks.

Since the Biden administration expects presumes hostile relations with China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea will continue, the Pentagon need a more efficient appropriations process. The popularity of Buy American policies could prove counterproductive by decreasing opportunities for globally collaborative research, development, and acquisition programs. Allies can offer unique skills and technologies while international competition helps keep costs down at a time when U.S. defense companies are consolidating.

Continuing the Trump administration’s intensified vetting of foreign and domestic sub- contractors will also help sustain a robust and resilient supply chain.

Similarly, the Defense Department should move away from “sole source” contracts, for both prime and lower-tier suppliers. While they can save time and paperwork, sole-source contracts can weaken competitive pressures, increase risks and vulnerabilities, decrease quality, and stifle innovation at multiple levels.

In recent years, the Defense Department has too quickly down selected to a single source for the Long-Range Standoff Weapon, the F-35’s Pratt & Whitney engines, the JEDI cloud contract, and other major programs, as well as many smaller contracts. Defense experts have had a poor record as commercial analysts in forecasting which providers can provide the best value for capabilities and platforms whose operational lifetimes could last decades. Unlike the urgent need to provide weapons for the unexpected wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. military competition with China will likely last for decades.

Also, Congress needs to relax its own opposition to further base realignments and closing within the United States to free up long-term modernization funding.

Another way to relieve pressure on the defense budget would be to strengthen complementary civilian agencies—leveraging the full range of diplomatic, economic, and other U.S. capabilities—and interagency coordination through the National Security Council.

President Biden has appointed a strong national security team, but he will need to balance the imperative of intervening selectively to ensure the executive departments respect his priorities while eschewing the temptation to enforce consensus and expedite policy implementation for an unmanageably large span of issues.

https://defense.info/featured-story/2021/03/the-biden-security-agenda-an-initial-assessment

How the US military is preparing for a war with China

Juicy targets include artificial islands in the South China Sea James StavridisGuest Writer

March 7, 2021 05:00 JST

U.S. Marines participate in an amphibious assault exercise in Chonburi, Thailand, in February 2020: the Marines will be sea-based and able to sail into the waters of the South China Sea. © Sipa/AP Admiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He spent the bulk of his operational career in the Pacific, and is author of "2034: A Novel of the Next World War."

The Atlantic Council's publication of The Longer Telegram, which lays out a sweeping blueprint for a U.S. strategy to face China, provides significant clues about a new lay- down of American forces around east Asia.

Whether the new Biden administration fully embraces the paper's aggressive stance remains to be seen, but elements are under serious consideration. Certainly, the new team at the National Security Council, led by highly respected Asia hand Kurt Campbell and a deep bench of Asia experts, will be looking at a wide variety of options for the military component of a new overall strategic posture.

One of the key elements in the military component is a series of "red lines" to which the U.S. would respond militarily.

These include "any nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons action by China against the U.S. or its allies or by North Korea; any Chinese military attack against Taiwan or its offshore islands, including an economic blockade or major cyberattack against Taiwanese public infrastructure and institutions; any Chinese attack against Japanese forces in their defense of Japanese sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands, which China claims as the Diaoyu, and their surrounding exclusive economic zone in the East China Sea; any major Chinese hostile action in the South China Sea to further reclaim and militarize islands, to deploy force against other claimant states, or to prevent full freedom of navigation operations by the U.S. and allied maritime forces; and any Chinese attack against the sovereign territory or military assets of U.S. treaty allies."

At U.S. Indo-Pacific headquarters, strategic, operational and tactical teams are putting together new approaches for deploying American forces. These new options will be sent back to the Pentagon as part of the overall "posture review" being undertaken by new Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin. What will emerge?

One option is an enhanced role for the U.S. Marine Corps, which traces so much of its pre-9/11 operational history to the Pacific going back to World War II. Under the dynamic intellectual leadership of Marine Corps Commandant Dave Berger, gone are the large troop formations, armored capability and land-based Marine tactics of the "forever wars" in the Middle East.

Instead, in the context of a U.S.-China strategy, the Marines will be resolutely sea-based and able to sail into the waters of the South China Sea, well inside the island chains China relies on for defense. Once inside, they will use armed drones, offensive cyber capabilities, Marine Raiders -- highly capable special forces -- anti-air missiles and even ship-killer strike weapons to attack Chinese maritime forces, and perhaps even their land bases of operations. The Chinese militarized artificial islands in the South China Sea would be juicy targets, for example. In essence, this will be guerrilla warfare from the sea.

An airstrip and buildings on China's man-made Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, pictured in April 2017: juicy targets. © AP

In addition to a new Marine tactical and operational approach, the U.S. Navy will be undertaking more aggressive patrols throughout the waters off China. Some will say this is merely the military equivalent of "driving doughnut holes in your neighbor's lawn." But the strategic concept is clever: to gradually include other allied warships in this aggressive freedom of navigation patrols. Doing so internationalizes the pushback on Chinese claims of sovereignty over the South China Sea.

In particular, the Pentagon is hoping to include British, French and other NATO allies in the effort. Indeed the recent NATO defense ministerial in Brussels involved consultations over the alliance's role in facing the rising military capability of China. Over time, the U.S. would like to convince Australia, New Zealand, India, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Vietnam to participate in such deployments. The U.S. overall maritime strategic posture is predicated on creating a global maritime coalition to face the Chinese People's Liberation Army's highly capable forces.

In addition to the sea service's activities, the U.S. Air Force will likely be shifting additional long-range land-attack bombers and fighters to Pacific bases that are widely distributed across Asia, including some very remote sites on smaller islands. These so-called spokes will be supported from larger bases in Guam, Japan, Australia and South Korea. The concept, dubbed Agile Combat Employment, adds a high degree of mobility to the currently concentrated combat power of both fighter and attack aircraft deployed in the region.

Finally, the U.S. Army will increase both combat power and mobility to deploy units forward in support of the red lines along those advocated in the telegram, including enhanced capability based in South Korea and Japan but easily capable of deploying to smaller islands throughout the region.

Both the Army and Air Force would be on the forward edge of additional training and exercises with the Taiwanese as well. Look for increased emphasis from the new American Space Force to focus intelligence and reconnaissance on the theater, as well as enhanced offensive cyber options from the U.S. Cyber Command, in coordination with the National Security Agency.

Taken together, it seems clear that the U.S. military is stepping up its presence and combat capability in the Western Pacific, and positioning for a conflict with China over the coming decades.

The Longer Telegram provides an important clue as to what options the Pentagon and the White House are considering as part of an expected new strategy to face the rise of China. Hopefully, skillful diplomacy and the intertwined economies of the two great powers will preclude the outbreak of war -- but U.S. military planners are busy these days.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/How-the-US-military-is-preparing-for-a-war-with-China

US, Phl, China cast in a ménage à trois?

Federico D. Pascual Jr. (The Philippine Star - March 7, 2021 - 12:00am) President Duterte said Sunday that the United States wants to have military bases again in the Philippines and that, in fact, it has already stockpiled war materiel in depots all over the country.

We have not seen a US reaction to Duterte’s saying American armaments are stored in the country. What has come out is a report of Ambassador to the US Babe Romualdez saying Washington has sent a list of military assistance to upgrade the Armed Forces of the Philippines.

The ambassador was quoted as saying that so far the list looked sufficient to “modernize” the AFP. There was no indication, however, if the military boost was enough to convince Duterte to drop his plan to terminate the Phl-US Visiting Forces Agreement after due notice.

Duterte looks to some observers as playing the US versus China in a bid to get the best deal for the Philippines now reeling from the double whammy of a raging pandemic and a shrinking economy. Watch how Duterte would play this political ménage à trois.

The President divulged US military stockpiles while answering media questions on what China wants in return for donating 600,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccines to the Philippines. The CoronaVac vaccines made by Sinovac Biotech arrived Sunday on a Chinese cargo plane.

Reacting to warnings that China could be squeezing a quid pro quo from him, Duterte blurted out that while China asks for nothing, the US wants military bases. He used the Tagalog word “base” (in two syllables “ba-se”) talking in a mix of English and Filipino.

The President said that in the ongoing bilateral talks on the Phl-US Visiting Forces Agreement, which he wants to terminate, the US is looking to having military bases again in the Philippines. He added that US armaments are already stockpiled in depots all over the country.

He did not give the exact locations of the supposed depots where US weapons are hidden. The press did not have ample time to ask if it was China that fed him the information on the depots or if the intelligence was gathered by the Philippine military.

After the expiration of the Phl-US Bases Agreement in 1991 and the dismantling of the installations the next year amid the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, the constitutional ban on foreign bases without a mutually ratified treaty automatically took effect. If indeed US armaments have been hidden in depots all over the country, it behooves (one of Duterte’s favorite verbs) him to list the locations and report what he has done to prevent their being multiple magnets for attack in case of war.

A slightly more detailed discussion of what Duterte wants from the US in exchange for the VFA’s extension is in our Postscript column of Feb. 14, 2021, titled “Duterte to US: If you want VFA, pay for it”. Link: https://tinyurl.com/2u9vrhsv

In the March 3 presscon, Duterte said in reply to a question on how the Sinovac vaccine donation would influence his view of China’s intrusions and militarized island-building in Philippine maritime areas:

“(It is) a matter of geopolitics. I have made a declaration that we will adopt an independent foreign policy which means to say that, one, I assured China that I will not allow nuclear armaments of America to be stored in the Philippines. Yan ang sinabi ko! That is guarantee na hindi ako papayag, not because it will antagonize China, but it is in the Philippine Constitution which prohibits the presence of nuclear armaments in the country.”

But nobody was asking about nuclear weapons. Then, on a follow-up question on whether the donation would compromise Manila’s position on Philippine-China issues, Duterte said: “China never asked for anything, China is giving us everything… Ang pinakamabigat ang Americano ang hinihingi nila ay base (…the most difficult part is that Americans are asking for bases). Do you know the direct consequence kung magka-gera? War will probably start maybe in the theater of war in Spratlys… China... Katabi lang tayo near Pangasinan… sa harap, marami pang probinsya.

“Kung meron (US) armament sila rito yun ang unang tatamaan. We are taking a big gamble there… All we need are only arms for counter-insurgency, OK na yun, not weapons to fight other countries because we do not have the arms and we don’t want it.

“Kung magka-gera ang unang matamaan ang Pilipinas kasi nandito ang base, ang mga armas nila. The arms are stored everywhere in the Philippines, maybe you don’t know, may mga depot all around the Philippines where the arms are stored.

“Sinabi ko sa kanila (I told the US) I cannot stop you because we’re still negotiating the VFA. But I’m warning you if I get hold of information that the nuclear armaments are here, brought by you, I will immediately ask you to go out and I will terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement ora mismo!”

We are surprised by these security revelations of Duterte, and by his spokesman Harry Roque’s dubbing him the architect of a supposedly independent foreign policy.

Duterte did not draw up, as the alleged architect, an independent foreign policy. To begin with, an independent stance in foreign relations was already mandated by the Constitution before the Davao City mayor became president and dabbled in diplomacy. See Sections 2 and 7 of Article II (Declaration of Principles and State Policies Principles):

• Section 2. The Philippines renounces war as an instrument of national policy, adopts the generally accepted principles of international law as part of the law of the land and adheres to the policy of peace, equality, justice, freedom, cooperation and amity with all nations.

• Section 7. The State shall pursue an independent foreign policy. In its relations with other states, the paramount consideration shall be national sovereignty, territorial integrity, national interest and the right to self-determination.

And then, Duterte’s conduct of foreign relations is far from independent. He has veered sharply to the left toward Beijing, dragging along with him a population that surveys have shown to be quite suspicious of China’s intentions vis-à-vis the Philippines.

https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2021/03/07/2082497/us-phl-china-cast-mnage-trois

The Continuing Mystery of the Belt and Road

There are still competing theories and explanations of what China’s signature foreign policy platform actually means. By Yuan Jiang

March 06, 2021

Credit: Pixabay Almost eight years have passed, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) still remains a mystery, raising much global furor. Is China too difficult to understand or does China intentionally not want to be understood?

The story begins with President Xi Jinping’s eye-catching proposals to establish a Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road in 2013. However, Beijing took over a year to form its leading group on the subject, and a year and a half to issue a single BRI guideline, full of vague mottos. Even the name was not meticulously drafted, experiencing changes from “One Belt, One Road” to the “Belt and Road Initiative.” That said, these fluctuations are consistent with Beijing’s framing of the BRI as mutually discussed, open, and inclusive. Unexpectedly, this framing has caused unfettered reinterpretations even within China, and some of them totally contradict the main leadership body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). Some provincial governments simply talk of a “bridgehead” that vaguely alludes to a sense of growing military power. Other provinces have gone as far as to claim the BRI will restore China’s “historical glory,” recalling the ancient tribute system in Southeastern Asia. Some Chinese academics and military generals decipher the BRI as a shrewd geopolitical strategy, reinforcing China’s internal policy discoordination. The NDRC purportedly has struggled to play down all of these alternative explanations, instead emphasizing economic cooperation and peaceful development. Of course, Beijing explicitly understands the strength of policy narrative and has attempted to control the narrative of the BRI. The leading group sought to prevent the abuse of the BRI concept. According to the interview cited by Jinghan Zeng, scholars at the Chinese Academy of Social Science were forbidden to speculate on the meaning and implications of the BRI after 2015. Nevertheless, the global speculation has gone wild. In addition to the popular stereotype of the BRI as China’s strategy to achieve Asian supremacy by marginalizing the United States, the BRI has been portrayed variously as a solution to domestic economic and regional security concerns, a new category of economic globalization, the resurrection of the historical Silk Road, or a loose indeterminate scheme that includes all of the above.

So, what is the BRI? Based on the observation of its implementation, Beijing’s official statements, and my own research, I would argue it is a constantly changing group of policy settings, which encompasses almost all the various clarifications. Arguably, the BRI has been embedded into all other aspects of Chinese domestic policy. In other words, the BRI was first proposed as a grand and extensive policy concept or even a slogan, and was filled in with concrete content afterwards. Undeniably, China has been attempting to peddle its influence through the BRI. Every country seeks to promote its influence abroad, and China, soon to be the world’s largest economy, has more tools to do so than most. The key question is whether the BRI masks well-thought-out, deceptive tricks – for example, the “debt trap” theory – to pursue Beijing’s regional hegemony insidiously and strategically. Lee Jones and Shahar Hameiri have stressed that China’s development financing system is too disjointed and poorly organized to be a well-prepared strategy in the implementation of the BRI. Its overseas loan and projects are easily influenced by shifting Sino-American relations and the pandemic. The so-called debt diplomacy has been massively exaggerated and overseas asset seizures have rarely occurred, based on findings from the China Africa Research Initiative, Lowy Institute, and Rhodium Group. Recently, even the Atlantic, a U.S. media outlet, admitted this.

Regarding the BRI’s sensitive military influence, even former U.S. diplomats and scholars like Daniel Russel and Blake Berger have acknowledged that some of the BRI ports are only commercially designed and almost impossible to be employed militarily. Even after the headline-grabbing lease of Hambantota port in Sri Lanka to a Chinese company, there has been no record of any Chinese military operation in or around Hambantota, as indicated by Jones, Hameiri, and Jonathan Hillman. In practice, the piecemeal realization of BRI projects is determined by local governments and their related political and economic interests via diverse and time-consuming bilateral interaction with Beijing. Frankly, the implementation of some BRI projects is messy, chaotic, and beset with vanity and illusion. Even the pro-BRI official advisory group confessed that the BRI has neither a centralized coordinating mechanism nor a clear set of underpinning work streams. The BRI is nowadays like a growing adolescent during puberty. It genuinely aims to do things, but rarely contemplate the “why” and “how.” Local politicians seize opportunities to promise their voters economic miracles, rarely questioning the utility of proposed infrastructure. Taking BRI projects in Pakistan and Sri Lanka for examples, the three sides have ambition in abundance but lack clear practical execution. In some extreme cases in Sri Lanka, Chinese firms bizarrely finalized the feasibility study for their own proposed projects. Or alternatively, local governments spend little money to assess the project’s practicality and its potential market profits, but squander a lot on ceremonies to celebrate half-done projects. Beijing undoubtedly knows all of the issues surrounding the BRI and measures have possibly been taken to avoid them. Understandably, China prefers not to disclose these publicly, as face saving has been widely recognized as the imperative of its foreign policy, an artifact of its traditional culture. However, the most important takeaway is this: The BRI is not and never has been a strategy, but instead is an assemblage of constantly changing policy settings. In other words, an “initiative,” which is the word the world usually misses in its global narratives. https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-continuing-mystery-of-the-belt-and-road

Myanmar Cracked Down Brutally on Protests. It May Get Worse.

Myanmar’s military is banking on the world going no further than “harsh words, some economic sanctions and travel bans.” By Victoria Milko and Foster Klug

March 06, 2021

In this March 4, 2021, file photo, police officers aim guns towards people in nearby apartments as they stand off with anti-coup protesters in Yangon, Myanmar. Credit: AP Photo, File Myanmar’s security forces have killed scores of demonstrators protesting a coup. The new junta has jailed journalists — and anyone else capable of exposing the violence. It has done away with even limited legal protections. The outside world has responded so far with tough words, a smattering of sanctions, and little else. The slide from a nascent democracy to yet another coup, as rapid as it has been brutal, opens up a grim possibility: As bad as it looks in Myanmar now, if the country’s long history of violent military rule is any guide, things could get worse. Protesters have continued to fill the streets despite violence that left 38 people dead one day this week — though in smaller numbers than the weeks right after the February 1 coup. They have used smartphones to capture the brutality. Recent videos show security forces shooting a person at point-blank range and chasing down and savagely beating demonstrators. The military, however, has the clear upper hand, with sophisticated weapons, a large network of spies, the ability to cut telecoms, and decades of fighting experience from civil conflicts in the country’s borderlands. “We are at a crisis point,” Bill Richardson, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations with long experience working with Myanmar, told The Associated Press, pointing to the arrests of journalists, including AP’s Thein Zaw, and the indiscriminate killing of protesters. “The international community needs to respond much more forcefully, or this situation will degenerate into complete anarchy and violence.” So, will it? Governments around the world, including the United States, have condemned the coup, which reversed years of slow progress toward democracy. Before that opening up began, Myanmar had languished under a strict military rule for five decades that led to international isolation and crippling sanctions. As the generals loosened their grip in the past decade, the international community lifted most sanctions and poured in investment.

Despite the flurry of recent global criticism, however, there’s not much hope that pressure from outside will change the course of events inside the country. For one thing, coordinated action at the U.N. — like a global arms embargo that the world body’s independent expert on human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, called for — is unlikely. Russia and China, Myanmar’s most powerful supporter, are still selling arms to the military. They each have a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council and thus could veto any such measure. The Security Council will take up the crisis in Myanmar on March 5.

Myanmar’s neighbors, the countries that make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, are generally loathe to “interfere” in one another’s affairs — a policy that means they are unlikely to do anything more than call for talks between the junta and the ousted government of Aung San Suu Kyi. That leaves sanctions from the United States and other Western countries. Washington imposed sanctions on Myanmar’s top military leaders after the February 1 coup. More pressure came after a U.N. envoy said security forces killed 38 people on March 3. Britain imposed sanctions on three generals and six members of the junta in response to the coup and the crackdown. The European Union is drawing up measures to respond to the coup. But even tough sanctions from those countries are unlikely to yield anything, though they may weigh heavily on ordinary people. Myanmar has ridden out decades of such measures before, and the military is already talking about plans for “self-reliance.” U.N. special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, told reporters this week that she had warned the military that tough sanctions may be coming — and the response was that the generals knew how to “walk with only a few friends.'” “Myanmar’s history suggests the military will use ever increasing brutality and violence in an attempt to put down the protest movement,” said Ronan Lee, a visiting scholar at the International State Crime Initiative at Queen Mary University of London. “In the past, the military has been prepared to murder thousands to quell civil unrest or to meet its goals.” In the face of such determination, some observers question how long the protest movement can last.

“While it may appear at first glance to be a battle of wills, the military has a substantial resource advantage over the average protester and has demonstrated that it’s willing to engage in extreme acts of violence and brutality to try to force compliance,” said John Lichtefeld, vice president of The Asia Group, a consulting firm.

It may get much worse, he said. The military “is an organization with tremendous institutional pride, and it’s possible that hardliners within the military who have been pushing for a more aggressive response are beginning to gain influence.” The military has also gotten away with past abuse. In 2017 the army slaughtered thousands of minority Rohingya Muslims in massacres that U.N. officials have said bear the “hallmarks of genocide” with few consequences so far. In a sign of how limited the options are to influence the junta, when asked what more Britain and other countries could do, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab responded: “We will continue to look at how we hold individual members of the regime to account.” Myanmar’s military is banking on the world going no further than “harsh words, some economic sanctions, and travel bans,” Lee, the scholar at Queen Mary University, said. In order to ensure that, it may exercise some restraint in its crackdown — to try to keep violence below a threshold that would compel action — or at least keep it hidden. This is why, he said, authorities are targeting journalists. It suggests they “understand the value of international exposure to the protesters and are aggressively working to limit it.”

https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/myanmar-cracked-down-brutally-on-protests-it-may-get-worse

The UK to Head East of Suez: Power Projection or Search for Trade?

As the HMS Queen Elizabeth and its entourage departs Portsmouth later this year, it will take with it a number of burdens and challenges. By James Maclaren March 05, 2021

Credit: Dave Jenkins / Flickr Later this year, the HMS Queen Elizabeth, the new Royal Navy aircraft carrier, will undertake its maiden deployment to the Asia-Pacific region. It will arrive as the flagship of a Carrier Strike Group, CSG21, that includes an air wing of U.S. Marine F-35s, nuclear submarines, and a number of U.S. and U.K. surface escort ships. The group is a bold statement of intent for a national defense policy that is tilting back toward the Indo-Pacific region after decades of contraction and focus on its NATO responsibilities to the North Atlantic. The deployment marks the Royal Navy’s return in force to east of the Suez Canal and reverses a government policy followed since 1967 that sustained operations in the Indo-Pacific were beyond the U.K.’s economic means or, with the loss of the empire, its strategic interests. This deployment and its choice of operating area is significant for a number of reasons. Reaction to its announcement has focused on the alarm bells it will raise with China. It does show a new determination on the part of the U.K. government to expand the maritime influence of the Royal Navy with new and improved capability and to extend its reach to unfamiliar (at least in recent times) operational areas. But why? Following Brexit and COVID-19, the U.K. faces great economic and political uncertainty. Many would challenge not only the premise of increased defense expenditures but why the government would also risk raising tensions further with one of the same countries it is counting on economically — China. Certainly, the feeling that China needs to stop throwing its weight around will be a sentiment shared by many in the corridors of the Foreign Office and Ministry of Defense. There has been frustration over the inability to respond forcefully against pro-democracy crackdowns in Hong Kong or meet popular concern over human rights abuses against the Uyghur population in Xinjiang Province. Suspicion about the activities of Chinese tech companies has also caused political hand-wringing over how to respond. Chinese hegemony in the South China Sea needs to be checked and given that many of the Pacific Rim nations are heavily invested and dependent on their huge neighbor efforts at containment have had to come from the U.S. alone. Which brings us to the new U.S. president. Many have wondered whether Biden may be less amenable than his predecessors to his British allies. A number of commentators have predicted a pivot by Biden to continental Europe with a new axis forming between Washington, Berlin, and Paris, leaving London somewhat on the sidelines. In truth, such ideas misunderstand the depth of U.S./U.K. defense and intelligence integration, which successfully transcends the terms of presidents or prime ministers. Nevertheless, the opportunity to affirm the U.K.’s relationship with the U.S. will do much to silence those predicting the death of the “special relationship.” While the British maritime capability in the region will be small compared to its U.S. counterparts, it will be warmly received in senior U.S. diplomatic and military circles as the credible and reliable addition of a permanent U.N. Security Council member to assist in the strategic wrestle with China. HMS Queen Elizabeth and her sister, the HMS Prince of Wales, are world-class vessels, eclipsing the smaller single French carrier and close to the capabilities of the U.S. supercarriers. It is likely the carrier group will conduct freedom of navigation passages that will certainly bring a response of some form from Beijing. Part of the intention of such maneuvers will be to remind the Chinese navy that its own carrier force plans, while ambitious, still lag behind the West in technology and capability. But if the deployment were about Britain re-engaging with its strategic role alone, it probably would not happen. There is an aspect to the mission that may be of at least equal importance to the containment of a strategic rival to Western interests. The U.K. needs new business partners. Since the decision to exit the European Union, the U.K. has been on the hunt for new trading relationships with which it can rebalance its economy following the expected downturn in its trade with the European super bloc. Boris Johnson’s government looks to the fast-growing and relatively underdeveloped economies of Southeast Asia to turbocharge economic growth and prove the country’s decision to break free of the collective trading arrangements were correct. As its first major prize it would view membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as a major endorsement demonstrating that an agile approach to global trade and services not only will compensate for lost EU trade but will accelerate Britain’s economic prosperity on the back of Asian growth. Achieving this goal will require strategic engagement with the region, demonstrating Britain’s credentials as a reliable security and trade partner. While Britain has never disengaged from Asia and has always deployed considerable “soft power” in the region, its priorities will need to shift and be seen to shift. Much diplomatic groundwork has been undertaken for this “tilt” to the Indo-Pacific region and this major deployment of military muscle is a major step in that process. As the state-of-the-art 65,000-ton warship and its entourage departs Portsmouth later this year, it will take with it a number of burdens and challenges: confronting an increasingly hostile Beijing, demonstrating its reliability and worth as an ally to Washington, reassuring with diplomatic charm the capitals of the Pacific Rim, and spearheading the U.K.’s economic regeneration with a visible display of technology and intent. There is a great deal at stake for the British nation at stake, which is why this carrier strike group deployment is about more than “showing the flag.”

https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-uk-to-head-east-of-suez-power-projection-or-search-for-trade

US stand on Hong Kong protest violence betrays its true intent

• Politicians who freely condemn the violence at home but support the rioting in Hong Kong are motivated not by concern for human rights but by hatred of China

US National Guard troops are issued firearms at the East Front of the US Capitol in Washington on January 13, as thousands were deployed in Washington in the days leading up to the inauguration of US President Joe Biden. Photo: EPA-EFE In the wake of the US Capitol riot (their word) on January 6, Twitter and other social media suspended Donald Trump’s accounts, because Trump’s speech was considered incitement of violence.

Twitter is a private firm that has the right to reject a customer that they think is damaging their country. Twitter has put the country’s stability first. The collective right to social security takes precedence over an individual’s right to freedom of speech. The collective freedom from violence and chaos comes first. I wish Hong Kong’s pro-democracy activists possessed Twitter’s wisdom.

Violence is against the law – no matter whether the violence is motivated by a protest against election fraud as Trump declared, by the pursuit of democracy as Hong Kong protesters declared, or by the fight for racial equality as the Black Lives Matter campaigners declared. Nothing justifies violence.

All governments have the responsibility to suppress violence to protect collective human rights. All judges have the responsibility to help restore social order quickly by heavily punishing rioters.Trump sent in the National Guard to suppress the Black Lives Matter riots; yet he signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act into law to sanction actions aimed at curbing the Hong Kong unrest. Nancy Pelosi and Mike Pence condemned Trump’s riot; yet praised Hong Kong rioters and said demonstrations were peaceful. Only Hongkongers knew if the damage to public facilities was “beautiful”. Only Hongkongers knew if it was safe to go out.Democratic jurisdictions around the world have condemned the US Capitol riot, but like the US they glorified the violence in Hong Kong.We know their ultimate goal is to control Hong Kong, so as to destabilise a rising China. It is a power struggle that has nothing to do with human rights. If the US cared about the right to life, why have more than 500,000 Americans died from Covid-19 when it had two more months than China to prepare for the pandemic?

https://www.scmp.com/comment/letters/article/3124116/us-stand-hong-kong-protest-violence- betrays-its-true-intent

Truth has no alternative

Robredo wanted a quick image revision by raising the need to look at an alternative truth.

In what seemed to be the launch of her 2022 campaign, Vice President Leni Robredo wanted to make known in a nearly one-hour yellow television program that was made to appear as a regular interview that she now holds the leadership baton in the opposition, but failed miserably.

In The Mangahas Interviews of veteran journalist Malou Mangahas, Robredo tried to sum up all the unsubstantiated attacks against President Rodrigo Duterte, from the signature war on drugs where she squandered an opportunity to put in her share in solving it, to the campaign against the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19).

In her patented sophomoric manner, Robredo wanted to leave an imprint that the Duterte administration had mishandled the crime and narcotics problem, citing the information she acquired during her short stint as drugs czarina.

She was terminated as head of the Inter-Agency Committee on Anti-Illegal Drugs (ICAD) after only 18 days in the post as she rushed to the United States in drafting a solution to the drugs problem instead of discussing it with the President.

Mr. Duterte, on his way to an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) event in November 2019, booted Robredo as co-chair of the ICAD, citing her incompetence and her penchant to grandstand.

The first directive of the Vice President as head of the anti-drugs campaign was for enforcement agencies to produce the list of high-value drug lords that surprised officials of the body since only the President had access to the thick list of about 11,000 drug personalities.

Shortly after her appointment, Robredo also met with officials from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and the US Embassy to discuss the drug problem, which she has said must be tackled using a public health approach.

More than two weeks into her tenure, however, she failed to flesh out the alternative method.

She even floated the phrase “alternative truth” in the interview, triggering memories of the alibi President Noynoy Aquino used in trying to worm out of accountability from the 2015 Mamasapano bloodbath that took the lives of 44 Special Action Force troops. Cornered by reports on his direct involvement in the planning and staging of “Oplan Exodus” that targeted Malaysian terrorist Marwan, Aquino, in a national address, cited the need to look into what he coined as the “alternative truth” on what transpired on 25 January 2015.

His administration tried to give credence to the obviously biased Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) report that followed the storyline of a misencounter.

Such obfuscation from the MILF would have provided a diversion from the reports of the PNP Board of Inquiry and the Senate Committee on Peace and Order on the Mamasapano debacle that both pointed to the ultimate responsibility of Noynoy on the incident.

In similar fashion, Robredo wanted a quick image revision by raising the need to look at an alternative truth, which is no other than the manipulated narration of what had transpired the over four years of the Duterte administration, similar to the claims in the failed yellow production that was the “Alias Bikoy” videos.

Robredo never had an impact on the lives of Filipinos during her forgettable stint in the second highest post of the land, and she can’t expect to turn the impression around in one hour of spins and innuendoes.

https://tribune.net.ph/index.php/2021/03/07/truth-has-no-alternative