Disaster Management in This was much the situation that confronted the Colombian Red Cross (CRC) when, “The next emergency will just towards the end of the record-breaking be the next rainy season” 2005 Atlantic season, Hurricane Beta bore down on the islands of Providencia and San Andrés in the . Walter Cotte, the The future will be different CRC’s veteran head of disaster response, remembers it as a “turning point” for The most recent scientific report from the people’s attitude to new climate risks. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said it is likely that future The National Society, fully integrated into tropical cyclones will become “more Colombia’s national disaster response intense”, with higher wind speeds and system, had been attending the emergency heavier rain. meetings as the hurricane approached and put its own branches on alert as soon as the The number of hurricanes in the North authorities issued a storm warning. Atlantic has been above average in nine of the last 11 years, and the evidence suggests “Hurricanes normally sweep north of us,” substantial increases in intensity and Cotte points out. “Climate change has duration since the 1970s. Recent studies become an issue now in the whole of even show that on average about twice as Colombia’s Caribbean region – not just the many Atlantic hurricanes now form each coast itself – in a way it wasn’t before. And year as a century ago. Yet the behaviour of especially our islands, where people think hurricanes, and especially the track they they’re threatened and need to prepare.” follow over the surface of the Earth, is far from easy to predict. Never before had the Atlantic seen a total of 27 named tropical storms. The normal It is important not to label individual alphabetical list of innocent-sounding tags – extreme-weather events as “climate Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, etc. – change”. Instead, we can recognize the had to be extended in 2005 with Greek trend of which they might be a part, and the letters, starting with Hurricane Alpha on 22 rising general uncertainty and risk. October and ending with Tropical Storm Hurricanes are a good example. Possibly Zeta which, for only the second time on the only thing we know for sure: the future record, lasted into the new year. The will be different from the past. infamous 11th named storm of the season, of course, had set a new record for economic damage and destroyed a US city: . The trend seems is likely to continue: the 2007 season was the first one on record to have two hurricanes making landfall as category five storms.

So the big question facing the Colombians now is: how frequent will this new hazard

Walter Cotte, Colombia: “The next emergency will prove to be? According to Cotte: “For just be the next rainy season” ordinary people what they perceive as

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variability in the weather is the problem, emergency will just be the next rainy rather than climate change as a trend. season.”

“Our effort at the moment is focused on In the Latin American context particularly, four areas: raising people’s awareness of torrential rain and floods as well as climate change as an issue; acting as a earthquakes and volcanoes generate another facilitator for the work of private and public indirect but no less deadly effect of weather sectors and the local communities; helping extremes: landslides. Many millions of deploy development aid at the local level in Latin Americans live in poor conditions in micro-projects relevant to climate change; hazard-prone areas, at the foot of unstable and above all advocacy on behalf of mountains, along river banks or in low- vulnerable people.” lying areas liable to flooding. Urbanization and deforestation make the problem worse. Catalysing preparedness The new awareness of Latin Americans have little choice but to climate hazards manage climate-related disasters. The Caribbean and Central America lie in the Precisely because of the growing Atlantic and Pacific storm belts. And vulnerability to weather extremes of Latin mountains and intricate river basins America and the Caribbean, work has generate lethal mudslides and floods. But begun to integrate the new awareness of also the reverse is happening: some regions climate hazards into the regular disaster face drought on an unprecedented scale. management cycle in a programme funded by the Dutch lottery. The Red Cross is Climate change is among the many socio- leading implementation in Guatemala, economic processes like land use patterns , Costa Rica and Colombia while that increase the risk of disasters. Because “Free Voice” – a Dutch communications of simple poverty, people in Latin America NGO – covers the Dominican Republic and often inhabit cheap land that is prone to Haiti. natural hazards, greatly increasing their vulnerability. The programme’s objective is to get across the idea that the future will bring new risks. “I’ve been involved in disaster management There has to be better planning at every in Colombia for a long time,” Walter Cotte stage of the disaster-management cycle, recalls, “and I can say confidently that the better use of weather forecasts – a key last five years have seen a very sharp rise in component of any early-warning system, the number of people affected by floods and and better use of seasonal forecasts of the amount of damage they cause. No hurricanes, droughts and El Niño/La Niña doubt. They happen more often and effects. sometimes the two rainy seasons join up and make one! The key message: climate change can catalyse better disaster preparedness by “Right now there are at least half a million encouraging the incorporation of new people affected by floods in Colombia. It’s information and leading to more effective a big emergency but the national system operations. can cope, for now. The real question is how to solve the problem for good. The next

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