V21, 37 Thursday, May 19, 2016

Baron Hill surveys his race v. Young Committee has just Democrat expects DSCC elevated his race to to help fund in a rematch its priority list. He is preparing to defend with Republican his Obamacare vote in 2010, and he By BRIAN A. HOWEY plans to tie Donald – Twenty-six years after Trump to the Young he ran a close race against U.S. Sen. , campaign at a time Democrat is when the Bloom- making a second run for ington Republican the upper chamber. In says he backs his the intervening quarter party’s presidential century, the Citizens nominee, but plans United decision has to run a parallel dramatically altered the campaign. political finance system and the former congress- The WTHR/Howey man faces the man who defeated him in the 9th Politics Poll CD six years ago in Todd Young. gave Young a 48- We sat down with Hill in the HPI offices 30% lead, though on Tuesday, giving him the opportunity to survey Hill says that Young the political and financial landscape in a race that benefitted from the may have already crested the $10 million mark, exposure and ex- coming on the heels of the last U.S. Senate race penditures related to in 2012 where $50 million was spent.

Hill said that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Continued on page 3 Ominous poll for Pence By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – The first post-primary poll shows Gov. in serious jeopardy for reelection. The flash poll conducted by Bellwether Research on behalf of Bill Oesterle’s Free Enterprise PAC shows that while Pence leads Democrat John “I am going to run for the Repub- Gregg 40-36%, with Libertarian Rex Bell at 2%, the governor lican National Committee post lags behind or is tied with the again. I feel real good about the Democrat in several issue cat- egories and in job approval. support.” This flash poll of 600 likely voters was conducted by - John Hammond III, who Bellwether pollster Christine will face a rematch with Matthews May 11-15 and has a +/-4% margin of error. Mat- Jim Bopp Jr. Hammond said thews tweeted on Wednesday he will support that 71% of the poll was via Page 2 cellphones. And in the most unsettled 49-45%. That poll was conducted element to Gov. Pence’s reelect, before the Indiana Libertarian Party the poll had a plus 12% Republican nominated Bell as governor. makeup, 39-27%. In the Bellwether Poll presi- “This is a Republican sample,” dential race, presumptive Republican said Oesterle, who heads the Free nominee Donald Trump had a 40-31% Enterprise political action commit- lead over Democrat . tee. He formed that PAC following the Trump wins 68% of all Republicans, Religious Freedom Restoration Act but among those who say they sup- controversy in March and April 2015. ported another Republican candidate Howey Politics Indiana “When you look at the cross tabs, the in the May primary, he gets 44% WWHowey Media, LLC 405 governor is underperforming in every and 14% support Clinton. There is a Massachusetts Ave., Suite category.” 12-point gap between Trump’s sup- 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 The poll put Pence’s reelect port among GOP men (74%) and GOP number at 36%, with 49% wanting a women (62%). Clinton garners 52% www.howeypolitics.com “new person” as governor and 15% from Democrats who say they voted didn’t know. Six in 10 independents for Sanders in the May 3rd primary, Brian A. Howey, Publisher are looking for a new governor, while while Trump gets 10% of their vote. Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington the same number of Republicans sup- That compares to the pre- Jack E. Howey, Editor port Pence’s reelection. Women under age 45 want a new gov- Mary Lou Howey, Editor ernor by a 59-21% margin. Maureen Hayden, Statehouse On the job approval Mark Curry, photography question, 40% approved of Pence’s performance in office and 42% disapprove. A further Subscriptions breakdown of those numbers HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 had 22% strongly approving HPI Weekly, $350 of Pence’s job performance, Ray Volpe, Account Manager 9% somewhat approving, 18% 317.602.3620 somewhat disapproving while 33% strongly disapproved and email: [email protected] 18% don’t know. In the over- Gov. Mike Pence participates in the Renaissance Dis- Contact HPI whelmingly Republican dough- trict ribbon cutting in South Bend with Mayor Peter [email protected] nut counties, voters approve by Buttigieg and Lt. Gov. last week as part Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 only a 48% - 37% margin. of his Regional Cities Initiative. College-educated vot- Washington: 202.256.5822 ers disapprove of Governor Pence’s primary WTHR/Howey Poll that had Business Office: 317.602.3620 performance (36% approve - 50% Trump leading Clinton 47-39%. That disapprove), while non-college voters occurred before Trump and Demo- © 2016, Howey Politics narrowly approve, 42%-38%. Driven crat Bernie Sanders won the Indiana Indiana. All rights reserved. by voters under age 45, independents primary, both with 53% of the vote. overwhelmingly disapprove of Pence’s In the Bellwether U.S. Sen- Photocopying, Internet forward- performance (31% approve – 54% ate race, Republican Todd Young led ing, faxing or reproducing in disapprove). Senior women give the Democrat Baron Hill 36-22% with a any form, whole or part, is a governor a positive 45% - 30% ap- whopping 27% undecided. violation of federal law without proval rating, but women under 45 are That compares with the permission from the publisher. the opposite, with a 30% approve – WTHR/Howey Poll prior to the primary 47% disapprove rating. that had Rep. Young leading Hill 48- The poll comes as Gregg 30%. began a statewide TV ad campaign on May 5, with the governor’s campaign Pence lags on going up on the air a couple of days 2 out of 4 issues later. Both have remained on the air. The Bellwether flash poll It follows the WTHR/Howey tested four issues, and Gregg out-per- Politics Indiana Poll conducted on April formed the governor on two of them. 18-21 that had Pence leading Gregg n On the question of who Page 3 performs better in attracting coverage. jobs, 39% said Pence and The education perfor- 38% said Gregg. mance question should be a n On who could do red flag for Pence, who spent a better job improving educa- three years butting heads tion, 42% said Gregg and with Democratic Supt. Glenda and 32% said Pence. Ritz over control of educa- n On who repre- tion issues. Another warning sents Indiana better nation- sign came in Hamilton County, ally, Gregg came in at 39% where State Rep. Jerry Torr and Pence at 37%. was expecting to easily defeat n On the question, challenger Tom Linkmeyer, who would do a better job a local school administrator. managing the state budget, Linkmeyer spent very little 41% said Pence and 35% money and did not conduct said Gregg. a conspicuous campaign, but Both Pence and Gregg have been articulating their Torr only won 7,896 to 7,111. It suggests that remnants of perceived strengths on job creation on both the campaign the education/social media network that helped Ritz upset trail and in their first three TV ads. Republican Supt. Tony Bennett in 2012 despite being out- Pence spent part of the Bellwether polling period spent by more than $1 million is still in play. on his “Start Your Engines” statewide campaign kickoff Bellwether pollster Matthews has polled for the tour with Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb. He also participated in , Gov. , the Indiana a series of ribbon cuttings in places like Elkhart, Goshen, Manufacturers Association and in 2012 she teamed up South Bend and Evansville as part of his Regional Cities with Democratic pollster Fred Yang to conduct the Howey/ Initiative. These events drew considerable local media DePauw Indiana Battleground Polls. v

Mourdock and Donnelly. It was a $50 million race and $30 Baron Hill, from page 1 million came from super PACs. That’s a vastly different the primary. That poll was taken April 18-21. A Bellwether scenario than when you ran against Sen. Coats in 1990. Research Poll released today has Hill trailing Young 36- Just today the Koch brothers are talking about putting $30 22% with 16% undecided. million in Republican Senate races. And, my primary count Hill gave HPI an overview of where he thinks the had Young and Stutzman in the $10 million range. How race is now: much did you spend in your first Senate race? Hill: I’m not going to sugarcoat anything. If you’d Hill: I think it was, like, $1.5 million. asked me that question six months ago I would have said HPI: So we’re seeing an exponential rise in we’re not doing very well, because the focus was on the spending. Are we going to see another $50 million Senate presidential race, the focus was on the governor’s race. race here? People just weren’t talking about the Senate race. People Hill: I don’t know. I have every intention of mak- just weren’t interested on the Democratic side in particular. ing this a very competitive race. But I don’t know what the In the last month it has been very noticeable all of a sud- Koch brothers are going to do and I don’t know what the den because of the rise of Trump, people are interested Democratic super PACs are going to do. I just don’t know. in my race. My fundraising has tripled. People are calling You’ve got that wall where you can’t communicate with me wanting to set up events. It’s just different in terms of anybody. If the Democrats see this race as doable and the energy and enthusiasm. Republicans see it going down, I think there’s going to be HPI: Your early reports were unimpressive. Is the a lot of money coming in, unfortunately. Democratic Senatorial Committee going to get involved? HPI: Our WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll had Hill: There’s was an article by Ezra Klein this you trailing Todd Young by double digits. Have you polled? morning, all about Democrats and the Democratic Senato- Are you seeing the same thing? rial Campaign Committee and strategists are now adding Hill: Not really. I polled last year to see if I want- more targeted races. There were six targeted races and ed to get into this race. The poll told me to get into this they’ve expanded that list to 10. They’ve endorsed me. race because you can do this, against Stutzman or Young, Chuck Schumer has endorsed me. So the answer is yes. or at that time Holcomb. The poll that you guys did was a HPI: I’ve written extensively about the 2012 reflection of all the Republican money in that primary, so I U.S. Senate race between Lugar and Mourdock, and then don’t worry about that. That will all change when we get Page 4 into the general election. The thing that really caught my paign? I know so many Republicans who say, “I really like eye was in the Lake County media market I was behind. .” I hear that all the time. Well, I’m not going to lose Lake County. Hill: Joe and I are similar in our approach, aside HPI: There were four or five Democratic super from the strategy. Joe and I share a common philosophy. PACs in 2012. Will there be that many this time? We’re not beholden to the party; we’re Democrats and Hill: Maybe. I talked to Joe (Donnelly) about all of proud of it, but when we disagree with our party, we are this last year and he mentioned the $50 million and he told going to vote in a way that represents the best interest me about all the super PACs involved. He told me, “Baron, of Indiana. I did that as a member of the House and was they’re going to do the same with you.” listed as the most centrist member of the House by the HPI: When you ran for the Senate in 1990 and National Journal. since then seven congressional races, all were pre-Citizens HPI: How are you going to frame your election United. A candidate could control basi- bid? cally the money and the messaging. Hill: People in Indiana feel unsure of Back in those days you could actually their future in relationship with jobs and talk to the PACs. What’s it like now when the economy. They are unsettled. I like to much of the money and messaging are tell the story of my parents. I was the last beyond the control of the candidate? As of seven kids. Most people remember me a candidate that has to be bizarre not to as a member of Congress or as a basket- have a full grasp of the messaging, not ball player; they don’t know I’m the last only against you, but on your behalf. of seven. My mother and father raised all Hill: When I entertained the those kids on a shoemaker’s salary from the idea of running last year, that comment Gerwin Shoe Company in Seymour. They that you just made about the outside struggled to raise seven kids, but I always money caused me to pause, because had food in my belly and a basketball in my you do lose control of the outside hand. My mother and father lost their jobs money. That’s the reason members of when I was 17 years old. I saw the look Congress need to overturn that Supreme of despair on their faces. What were they Court decision. But I decided to move going to do next? They had no pension, no forward because of what is facing the health insurance. They had nothing. When country in 2016 and what’s at stake. you live with something like that as a teen- There is risk in anything; there is more ager, it sticks with you all your life. When risk in this race because of the outside money, but I’m will- I travel around the state, I get that same sense from the ing to take the risk. I think the issues and stakes are very people; they are unsure of what’s next. Are they going to high for the country. Frankly, I think there need to be more have a job? The people who lost their job with Carrier, I moderates in the Congress, like myself. The middle has understand exactly what they are going through. My focus largely disappeared in Congress and I think that’s why you on this campaign is going to be about them. It’s going to have the partisanship and bickering. I think people are just be on how we restore the middle class. As a U.S. senator, I sick and tired of all the bickering. I never took part in all will focus like a laser beam on that issue. of that; I’ve always respected both Democrats and Repub- HPI: I had a conversation with Purdue Presi- licans and have tried to work with everybody in Congress dent Mitch Daniels about the transition from an agrarian and do what’s right for the people in the 9th District. I will economy a century ago to heavy manufacturing, and from try to do the same thing in the Senate for the entire State manufacturing to a service/information economy this past of Indiana. generation. There were always enough jobs, but he’s not HPI: How many Blue Dog Democrats were there so sure about what’s ahead, because manufacturing is so in the House when you were there? advanced. There may not be enough middle class jobs. Hill: There were 54 of us. What can a U.S. senator do to impact that dynamic? HPI: And how many now? Hill: We’ve got to look to our strengths. The auto- Hill: Fifteen. mobile industry and the steel industry were our strengths HPI: If you win this race, would you like to form a back in those days. One of the strengths that we have now similar centrist coalition? is with life sciences. We have Lilly here, an anchor for life Hill: Yeah. I’ve talked with Heidi Heitkamp, Sens. sciences; we have Wellpoint and great hospital systems. Warner and Carper, Sen. Joe Donnelly, all moderate to The life sciences is an area where we can create good- conservative Democrats. You know they’ve all contributed paying jobs in the future. I focused on that when I was a to my campaign. So, yes, I think we’ll be a voice to be member of the House. heard in the caucus. HPI: One of the thing your opponent talks HPI: Back on the money, any other advice that about is the need to reform the tax code. What are your Joe Donnelly gave you that we’ll see surfacing in the cam- thoughts on that? Page 5

Hill: We need reforms. The tax shelters in other sue? Make it a core part of your pitch to voters? countries, where businesses take advantage and don’t Hill: Let’s put it this way, I won’t run away from have to pay taxes here, is just not right. So I’m for closing it. I voted for it. I believe in it. I think it’s done a lot of these loopholes. good for a lot of Americans. You shouldn’t be talking HPI: In the presidential race, Bernie Sanders and about repealing it. Donald Trump are feeding off the same energy, albeit 180 HPI: I just saw a poll that had more than 50% degrees apart. What’s happening in the workforce and wanted to repeal Obamacare, but 58% of those favor a Carrier is going to the Senate race issues. Differentiate single payer system. yourself from Rep. Young. Hill: That’s the thing in these polls. I’m glad Hill: There are things I will support that he won’t. you’ve seen that. There are people who want to repeal When you talk about the middle class on the core issues Obamacare and replace it with single payer. I think most that affect people, he wants to privatize Social Security, I of those people, given the option they’re not going to get don’t. He wants to create a voucher system for , single payer, would not want to repeal it. They may want I don’t. I support family medical leave. I don’t know where to change some things in it, but wouldn’t want to repeal he stands on that but I guess he doesn’t. I want to lower it. I think most Hoosiers don’t want to repeal it, they want the interest rate for student loans and I don’t know where changes in it. he’s at on that, either. These are core issues that we dis- HPI: I had a friend up at the lakes who’s about agree on that affect the middle class. as conservative a Republican as you can get and a career HPI: Hillary and Bill Clinton are calling for the re- insurance executive, and I asked him a few years back, financing of student loans, as well as lower rates. Do you Charlie, what health care system should we really be do- agree with them? ing, and he whispered to me, “Single payer.” Hill: Yes. Excellent. Hill: I’ll tell you a story. I was with Bill Cook. HPI: Young is going to bring up Obamacare. We were all debating the and it was Shaw Friedman wrote an HPI something we hadn’t voted column after the 2014 elec- on yet, and Bill Cook said tion very critical of Democrats “There’s one solution to for not defending Obamacare, our health care system.” I and, in fact, ignoring it while said, “What’s that?” He said, Republicans beat them with “Single payer.” it. We’ve got 400,000 join- HPI: My last conversa- ing via Gov. Pence’s tion with Bill Cook, he was HIP2.0, which wouldn’t exist pretty exercised about the without the ACA. The unin- ACA but it was over the sured rates in this state have Of the three Democratic House members who voted for Obam- medical device tax. Did you also fallen dramatically. You acare in 2010, Joe Donnelly (left) won reelection and a Senate back the repeal of the medical voted for Obamacare. Joe seat, (center) was a late entry into the 2010 U.S. device tax? Donnelly has won two elec- Senate race and lost to Sen. Dan Coats, and Baron Hill was defeat- Hill: I’m going to be tions in this state since his ed by Todd Young in the 9th CD. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey) accused as a lobbyist, when vote for the ACA. Young is I was lobbying on preserving going to attack you on it, so frame how you will approach Hoosier jobs here in Indiana by working with Cook Group the issue? to repeal the medical device tax, which we effectively got Hill: Todd Young has already publicly said he accomplished. would vote to repeal. Does he favor 300,000 people now HPI: Where do you see Todd Young’s vulnerabil- covered under Medicaid out the door? Is that the choices ity? Everywhere he goes, he tells voters “I can beat Baron the people are going to have? Vote for Baron Hill and he’s Hill. I’ve done it before.” going to support the Affordable Care Act and consider it Hill: The ones we’ve talked about are the most a work in progress that is going to be tweaked so it can important. As a Blue Dog Democrat, I still believe bal- better serve. I’m not going to throw 300,000 people off anced budget, spending taxpayer money wisely and insurance here in Indiana. Young will. Do we want to prudently, but outside of the issue, there’s a character eliminate pre-existing conditions? Is that what Todd Young issue here. It’s one thing to not pay your property taxes. is offering; go back the old way where you can’t get insur- I can understand when you make a mistake, but then to ance? Do we want to eliminate 26-year-olds having the bounce the check when you make the payment, but it’s ability to stay on their parents’ policy? Do we want to do not just that. It’s the fact that he was fined by the FEC away with those things? If you’re going to do away with for campaign violations. And this sloppiness on getting the Affordable Care Act, you’re going to put people back the signatures on the ballot. If it was just one thing, you on the street. could forgive it or ignore it. If it was two things, you could HPI: Will you run TV ads on the Obamacare is- say, ah, okay. But when it’s three things, property taxes, Page 6 campaign violations where you get He has and that’s totally irresponsible. For a fined, and you didn’t legitimately get on responsible member, a responsible conserva- the ballot, there’s a pattern developing. tive, that’s not responsible. What’s next? HPI: What are your thoughts on confront- HPI: One of the things Marlin ing ISIS? Stutzman said in his HPI Interview last Hill: Here’s the deal with ISIS that no one week was that Young “went after my is talking about: We need to do a much bet- family,” that he has a Virginia “mansion.” ter job of winning the propaganda war. ISIS The Young campaign is going to go for and these other terrorist groups are recruiting your jugular. Talk to me about the tenor young men and women with crazy ideas about of the coming campaign. a caliphate government that’s going to usher Hill: I always contended it’s OK in Armageddon. We need to be countering to go after somebody if it’s truthful, and these crazy suggestions with our own internet not distortive. What I just outlined to and social media to educate young people who you is truthful and not distortive. That’s fair game. Now if are being misled about what ISIS is saying. We’re not do- people want to categorize that as nasty, just because it’s ing a very good job of that. It’s not just a military solution; the truth ... I will always be truthful. That’s fair game. we have to win the propaganda war, too. HPI: Your stance on the Iran nuclear deal? HPI: Todd Young says he will support the Repub- Hill: The recognition that 70% of the popula- lican presidential nominee. Will you attempt to tie Donald tion of Iran is young and pro-West is something we need Trump to your opponent? to nurture and cultivate. I think that makes us safer. Are Hill: Donald Trump is portraying a vision of there risks here? Yes, but we need to make sure that America that has never been acceptable to responsible members of the U.S. Senate are watching the negotiated people in this country, either Republican or Democrat. It’s agreement very carefully, and if there are violations, we a vision of America that degrades women, Latinos, and the need to come down hard. But I think we need to see if it disabled. A ban on Muslims and all those things is not the can work. There’s another big difference between me and vision of America we have accepted. If we accept Donald Todd Young. It’s the vote to shut the government down. Trump’s vision of what America is, or should be, then we Page 7 might as well kick the Statue of Liberty into the New York this has worked for Donald Trump in the primary, but we harbor. America is for everybody. We made these mistakes can’t let that work for the general election. We have to in the past, like when we put the Japanese into concentra- express our own vision for America, and I just did. Here’s tion camps. Later we knew that was not the America we what I think is going to happen and I will point out in this accept. My argument in this election is if Todd Young does campaign: In Northern Indiana, some kids from one high not denounce those things, then he accepts a vision of school were mocking the Hispanic high school, chanting, America that is not accepted in this country by people with “Build a wall, build a wall.” Is that the role model we want? responsible leadership. He has to denounce those things. I’ve got three daughters and three wonderful grandchil- I am going to hold him accountable for those things that dren and I don’t want them looking to Donald Trump and Donald Trump believes. It is not the America I believe in seeing him as a role model. I’m going to denounce this. and I don’t think it is the America most other Americans I want my grandchildren to understand that that kind of believe in as well. The Republican primary is different from behavior is unacceptable. It’s important for political lead- a general election. The things that Donald Trump got away ers, in this particular case Todd Young, to denounce those with in the primary are a result of prejudice and hatred by things. That’s not the kind of America we want. It’s going the right wing of the Republican Party. It will come back to be an interesting election. to haunt them. I do think in a general election, the things HPI: Anything you want to add that I haven’t Donald Trump is saying are not going to be acceptable. asked? HPI: Do you think we’ll start seeing that reflected Hill: The one thing I want to add here is, there is in the polls this summer? a clear choice between me and Todd Young. v Hill: Yes I do. I think we have to be prepared for the worst as Democrats. We have to be prepared that

morphed into a “suggestion” that Muslims be banned entry Young prepares for into the . Does he agree with the Trump stance? Young responded, “I’m willing to take stances on battle with Baron Hill appropriate issues by other candidates for other offices, By BRIAN A. HOWEY whether they are Republicans or Democrats. But with re- INDIANAPOLIS – Democrat Baron Hill plans to spect to that particular proposal, as a former Marine Corps hold his Republican U.S. Senate opponent Todd Young intelligence officer, I’ve learned to deal with threats. I first “accountable” is issues raised by presumptive presidential identify threats and situation and try to deal with those nominee Donald Trump. Young has said he will support the threats in a targeted way. I think the way one deals with Republican nominee. this threat is be focused on the geography as opposed to He told HPI on Tuesday, just one’s religion. Setting aside the very serious constitu- “As I’ve said before, I don’t think tional reservation with regards to this proposal because it we can afford a third term for is over broad, I think it is a matter of taking security and it . That’s exactly makes more sense to take classical parameters around our what we’d get if Hillary Clinton is integration policies.” the next president. I’m going to Young campaign manager Trevor Foughty support the Republican, but at told HPI after our interview with Rep. Young, “His broad the same time I’m going to be fo- point here was that he wasn’t going to comment specifi- cused on holding onto this U.S. Senate seat. It cally on Trump’s could come down to control of the U.S. Senate. proposal, but to Frankly, I’m not spending a lot of time discuss- express his own ing other races.” views on the In an HPI Interview, Hill said, “If refugee issue. Todd Young does not denounce those things, In his view, it is then he accepts a vision of America that is not more productive accepted in this country by people with respon- to look at ‘geog- sible leadership. He has to denounce those raphy’ instead of things. I am going to hold him accountable for ‘religion’. That those things that Donald Trump believes.” is, we should en- HPI asked Young about Trump’s pro- Todd Young and U.S. Rep. Baron Hill debate in Jasper in sure that we are posal from last December, which apparently has October 2010. properly vetting Page 8 refugees from certain countries (Syria, for instance) more, for all Americans. At the same time, Americans are split on as opposed to vetting all adherents of a certain religion (in the idea of maintaining the ACA as it is, with 48% in favor this case, Islam).” and 49% opposed. The slight majority, 51%, favor repeal- Foughty added, “Even President Obama’s own ing the act. National Intelligence Director James Clapper has said we Young responded, saying, “I welcome the dia- can’t properly vet refugees from Syria, and that should logue. I don’t think (a solution) is the single payer system. give us pause.” I question these polls and the way they are asked. All I’ll HPI asked Young about Trump’s tax proposal, say is it’s my job to spend a lot of time on the ground, which has wobbled between tax cuts for the wealthy, listening to what Hoosiers want out of the health care and then more taxes for that class. Here is how Young responded, all but ignoring the presumptive nominee: “We need tax reform policy that makes it simpler, that is flatter and is fairer. This speaks to the fact that it creates winners and losers through the tax code, incentivizing types of activities and expenditures. Often these feature a parochial interest over a broader national interest. Our lodestar needs to be economic growth. There are members of the caucus who believe we can double annual growth. So I think, as we approach tax reform, I personally want to maximize economic growth. This will benefit all Americans, regardless of personal income and also happens to be consistent with system. They don’t want taxes and regulations around maximizing individual freedom.” their health care. They do want access to their preferred On another issue likely to come up in his race doctors. They do want innovative health care.” against Hill, Young said he advocates the repeal of Obam- Young said that his focus for the general election acare. Young called Hill one of President Obama’s “lieu- will be “creating good jobs.” Asked what the next U.S. tenants” of the Affordable Care Act that passed in March of senator could do on that front, Young cited tax code and 2010. While U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly went on to win reelec- regulatory reform. “New business creation has tanked,” he tion and then a U.S. Senate seat in 2012, Hill was the lone said. He cited his REINS Act legislation in the House, that Hoosier Democrat to lose a reelection after the vote (U.S. would cut federal regulations that he believes burden small Rep. Brad Ellsworth lost the U.S. Senate race that year af- businesses and job creators. Young said that tax form will ter a belated entry following the sudden retirement of U.S. create a “rising tide that while it does not lift all boats, it Sen. , who also voted for the bill). will most boats.” He called for access to “post-secondary “He will have to defend that vote,” Young said of training” so a person can be “relevant in a 21st Century Hill. Young said that he would vote to repeal Obamacare manufacturing economy. He called for “investing in student and replace it, likely in a series of bills that “actually con- access.” trol health care costs in a sustainable way.” Young also called for welfare reform, say- Asked about what elements of an Obamacare ing the current system is “failing the at-risk” citizens. “We replacement would look like, Young said there would have need to rethink the entire system,” Young said, adding that to be “more access to all Americans. To incentivize invest- he has passed legislation out of the House Ways & Means ment in health care innovation as opposed to disincentiviz- Committee that creates “social impact partnerships” that ing things like taxing medical devices. Obamacare fails on incentivize private investment into what has been tradi- all of these counts.” tionally government-run programs. Young added, “It was a sold on a series of lies. As for his emphatic 67-33% primary win over Mar- We were told the insurance premiums would decrease. lin Stutzman, Young said his campaign has “built consider- They have, dollar for dollar, increased by thousands of dol- able momentum” and that he is working to attain “broad lars. We were told if you liked your doctor, you could keep support.” him, instead the exact opposite has happened. Count- In the HPI Interview with Baron Hill, the Democrat less people have lost their doctors. We have seen people cited Young’s improper homestead property tax exemp- of modest incomes have their hours reduced because of tion, as well as an $8,000 FEC fine for campaign finance Obamacare. We can do better.” violations. Asked about the property tax fine, the Young On Tuesday Gallup released a new survey that campaign cited a previous quote he made to CNN. said that Americans presented with three separate scenar- Here is Todd’s statement in the original story: “I ios for the future of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), 58% accept full responsibility for these embarrassing oversights of U.S. adults favor the idea of replacing the law with a and have paid all the taxes and fees I owed. I regret the federally funded healthcare system that provides insurance errors and offer no excuses.” v Page 9

Bank since its inception and has Gregg LG forecast: served as president since Janu- ary 2007. He has founded three other companies, OneBridge, a Myers, Hale, Becker, credit and debit card processing firm; DyKnow, a company special- Buttigieg, Osili on list izing in educational technology for interactive learning experiences; By BRIAN A. HOWEY and RICS, a firm that provides INDIANAPOLIS – In early June Democratic guber- inventory control and POS systems natorial nominee John Gregg will make his second lieuten- for retailers via the Web. Becker ant governor nomination. The campaign has said that he is tight with Gregg, having served is exploring about 20 individuals in both the private and on the Vincennes University Board public sectors. of Trustees during the era when That list is probably in a winnowing stage at this Gregg was the university’s interim point, as the campaign is shoot- president. He was under consider- ing for unveiling the ticket by ation for the LG job under former June 10 on the eve of the Indiana Gov. . Like Myers, Democratic Convention. “We want Becker could bring a self-funding someone who will work with me,” component to the campaign. Gregg told Indiana Public Media. “Someone who will share my vi- South Bend Mayor sion in focusing on the economy, Peter Buttigieg: The two- on jobs, on education. I want term mayor won reelection last someone who’s not, midways, going to leave the ticket.” year with 80% of the vote. He ran That was in reference to former Lt. Gov. Sue Ellspermann, unsuccessfully for Indiana trea- who left the ticket in March, resigning so she could accept surer in 2010, losing to Republican the Ivy Tech presidency on Wednesday. incumbent Richard Mourdock. Last As we do every four years, here’s a tiered list of year, Buttigieg became the high- potential candidates. The first part of our list is one we est ranking Hoosier public servant suspect will be people in the final cut. to announce he is gay. He is a Rhodes Scholar and temporarily First tier left the mayor’s office in 2014 to Dr. Woody Myers: The former Indiana and serve as a U.S. Navy intelligence New York City health commissioner checks off a number of officer in Afghanistan. This Demo- boxes. He would be the first African-American on a gu- cratic rising star offers the ticket a bernatorial ticket, though his street cred in the neighbor- contrast with the Pence/Holcomb hoods isn’t that strong. He has a prodigious corporate and ticket on several fronts, from civil venture capital background. When he was Indiana health rights to business development, commissioner, he worked emergency room shifts at Wis- as well as a nominee with recent hard Hospital in an effort to tap into issues on the street. military experience in a theater of Indiana has a huge opiod/meth crisis and his medical and wa r. policy experience would be relevant there. And he played Indianapolis Coun- a key role during the Ryan White AIDS saga during the cilman Samuel Ifeanyi 1980s, which plays into civil rights component. Myers also “Vop” Osili, Jr.: The African- could bring a big checkbook to the campaign. American turnout is critical for State Rep. : The Indianap- Gregg and Osili has more street olis Democrat is widely perceived to be a rising star in the cred on this front than Myers. He party. She has had an international portfolio with Kiwanis was the 2010 secretary of state International where she worked on global health issues. nominee, losing to Republican Since going to the General Assembly, upsetting conserva- Charlie White. He was then elected Potential Democratic lieu- tive State Rep. Cindy Noe in 2012, she has worked on to the Indianapolis City/County tenant governor would female and youth issues. One drawback is that without her Council in 2011, winning 80% of include (from top) David in HD87, that seat could flip to the Republicans, and House the vote. Osili was born in Lagos, Becker, State Rep. Chris- Democrats cannot afford to lose any more ground there. Nigeria, to a Nigerian father and tina Hale, South Bend David Becker: He has served as chairman an American mother. He was said Mayor Peter Buttigieg and of the board and chief executive officer of First Internet to be a very talkative as a tod- Dr. Woody Myers. Page 10

Other otential Democratic lieutenant governor nominees include (from left) former legislator Peggy Welch, Indianapolis Councilman Vop Osili, State Rep. Terri Austin and Kokomo Mayor Greg Goodnight. dler, which led his parents to nickname him “Vop,” short the Democratic Caucus whip. In 2005, she authored Indi- for “Voice of the People.” In the midst of the Nigerian Civil ana’s landmark law to protect small business from govern- War, he and his mother fled back to the United States; his ment intrusion and burdensome regulations, which would father didn’t follow them for another five years. He is an give the ticket some credibility on one of Gov. Mike Pence’s architect and founding partner of A2SO4, an Indianapolis- key issues. based architectural design company. Peggy Welch: Gregg has stressed that he wants to work in a bipartisan manner. Welch is a former Second tier Democratic legislator from 1998 to 2012, but was also a State Rep. Terri Austin: The Anderson former staffer to Republican U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran of Democrat is an adjunct professor at Anderson University Mississippi. She joined the office of Republican Lt. Gov. and has served in the Indiana House since 2002. She is Sue Ellspermann, where she worked as a liaison between Page 11 state and local governments, leaving that office shortly he has surveyed the CD chairs and vice chairs. “I feel real after Ellspermann did to join FSSA. good about the support,” said Hammond, who defeated Gary Mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson: Bopp in June 2012. Bopp had suggested a “litmus test” for In her second term, Freeman-Wilson is a former Indiana Republicans prior to that contest. attorney general, appointed by Gov. Frank O’Bannon in In an email he sent to Indiana Republican Cen- 2000 to fill out the term of Jeff Modisett. She lost the 2000 tral Committee members on Wednesday, Bopp wrote, “I election to retain that office to Republican Steve Carter. believe that our Nation and our Party face one of the most After leaving the AG office, Freeman-Wilson went on to critical challenges in our history. President Obama has become CEO of the nonprofit National Association of Drug aggressively and illegally used the awesome power of the Court Professionals. She was Gary Municipal Court presid- federal government to fundamentally change America. And ing judge. She was elected mayor in 2011 on her third try, I believe that a Hillary Clinton administration will irrevoca- losing races to Mayors Scott King and Rudy Clay in 2003 bly complete this transformation to, at best, a weak and and 2007. With former Lake County Judge Lorenzo Arre- vulnerable European-style Socialist state. I believe that this dondo on the Democratic ticket as attorney general, Gregg challenge transcends any of the differences that we may already has a presence in Lake County. see between us.” Fort Wayne Mayor Tom Henry: The Bopp called the GOP “a large and diverse” party third-term Democrat mayor of Indiana’s second largest and added, “We accommodate many different points of city. Sources tell HPI that Henry was on Gregg’s short list view. This year, the Indiana primary was a historic fork in 2012. in the road on our path to nominating our candidate for President. Instead of taking one fork toward a contested Kokomo Mayor Greg Goodnight: The convention, our Republican voters overwhelmingly chose third-term mayor has led Kokomo on a renaissance after a to take the other fork – choosing Donald Trump as our near-death experience with the 2008-09 near-collapse of presumptive nominee before the convention. He is now the domestic auto industry. Goodnight is remaking down- the only person who is standing between Hillary Clinton town Kokomo, which is rife with development, including a and the Presidency.” new municipal baseball stadium. He was a union leader at Bopp added, “Republican leaders have an essential Haynes International and a former congressional candi- responsibility to lead by word and by example. As a Re- date. publican activist and party leader, I have without hesitation Vi Simpson: The former state senator and or reservation supported our nominees at all levels.” gubernatorial candidate was the 2012 LG nominee and has a close relationship with Gregg. Governor Former Lt. Gov. Kathy Davis: The former Indianapolis controller is popular in Democratic circles and checks off the female, public servant and private sector Pence releases second ad boxes. She became the 48th lieutenant governor in 2003 The Pence campaign began running its second when Gov. Joe Kernan appointed her to that office after ad statewide on Wednesday. Pence is seen talking to a he took the helm following the death of Gov. O’Bannon. group where he said that 130,000 net new jobs have been Davis has also been secretary of the Family Social Services created with a record $4.7 billion in investment. “We have Administration, potentially bringing executive experience to more Hoosiers going to work than ever before,” Pence the ticket. She is CEO of Global Access Point, a computer says. “That’s what I call a good start and I’m determined network connectivity company headquartered in South to keep my head down and keep Indiana growing.” Bend. She holds degrees from MIT and Harvard Business “Gov. Mike Pence is excited to continue sharing School. with folks across our state the remarkable story of Indi- ana’s growing economic momentum with record invest- Republican National Convention ment and more Hoosiers going to work than ever before,” said Marc Lotter, deputy campaign manager. “Indiana is just getting started, and we will continue to build on our Hammond, Bopp rematch for RNC successes under Gov. Mike Pence.” A rematch is taking shape for one of the Indiana The ad comes after Pence and Lt. Gov. Eric Hol- Republican National Committee slots as former commit- comb conducted a statewide, multi-city “Start Your En- teeman Jim Bopp Jr., will challenge current Committeeman gines” campaign tour, hitting more than a dozen cities. John Hammond III. He confirmed to HPI on Wednesday Pence is reaping the political benefits of his Re- that not only will he seek the post again, but will support gional Cities Initiative, joining Democratic and Republican Donald Trump for president. Last year, Hammond had mayors for a series of project ribbon-cutting ceremonies called Trump “unfit” for office. this past week that piggybacked on to his “Start Your Hammond told HPI he can better influence events Engines” statewide reelection bid. And there will be dozens by seeking the post again and supporting Trump. He said more of these in the coming months in the north central, Page 12 northeast and southwestern areas of the state. This is why terday vs. Ron Drake after a close election for Democratic that extra $42 million for a third region came about. It un- nominee for Congress for the 8th CD. The race remains derscores the classic political axiom of “good policy makes tight after the end of the official canvas, with final results good politics.” showing Orentlicher trailing by only 53 votes, one less Democrat John Gregg continued a statewide run than HPI reported yesterday. With the numbers still up in of his first TV ad. Campaign spokesman Jeff Harris said the air, Orentlicher took to Facebook calling the now 53- that the ad is running in all Indiana TV markets, as well vote defect “less than one-tenth of a percent of the more as cable in the media market that reaches The than 59,000 votes cast and also less than the margin of Region. error for vote counting.” Orentlicher called the recount to On the “Start Your Engines” tour, both Pence and make sure that there was “more careful counting” of the Holcomb suggested that electing Gregg governor will bring results. No official schedule or dates have been set for the back the days of deficits, delayed payments to schools and recount yet.. The 1984 recount lasted from November to local governments, and higher taxes. Indiana Democrats April with lots of political drama along the way. With the pushed back, suggesting that when Gregg was speaker, he recount now filed, it may be a month or more before the worked in tandem with House and Senate Republicans. 8th CD finds out who is facing Republican But Indiana Democrat Party spokesman Drew come November. Anderson said, “Pence is attacking the current House - Thomas Curry, Howey Politics Indiana Speaker and Senate Republicans, who signed off on every decision that was made when John Gregg was Statewides speaker of the Indiana House.” Walorski endorses Curtis Hill for AG Campaigns skirting money limits The campaign for Curtis Hill, who seeks the Pence and Democratic challenger John Gregg Republican nomination for , could be headed toward one of the most expensive races announced Monday that he has been endorsed by Rep. in Indiana history, as big-money donations flow to both , R-2nd (Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). She in ways that, while legal, skirt state limits on how much said that Hill “has stood for freedom, fought for families corporations or labor unions may contribute (Chokey, As- and inspired those around him, including me.” Horse sociated Press). The campaigns have taken in more than Race Status: Tossup. $12.7 million combined as of Monday, since the beginning of last year. An Associated Press analysis of fundraising Differences between Wooten, McCormick reports shows more than $4.5 million of that has come Republicans have another establishment-versus- from contributors using entities like limited liability com- outsider contest brewing, this one for state school super- panies or political action committees to give as much they intendent. Yorktown Superintendent Jennifer McCormick wish while obscuring the origin of the money. Pence and and IPFW instructor Dawn Wooten both criticize incumbent Gregg are stockpiling funds for what is shaping up as a Glenda Ritz’s management skills and conflicts with the fierce rematch of the 2012 election. Their total fundraising State Board of Education (Network Indiana). And both is about $18 million since then, and by November could stress their opposition to the already repealed ISTEP test. rival the record $33 million spent on the 2004 Indiana They say they’d be on guard as superintendent to make governor’s race by Republican challenger Mitch Daniels sure the new test is more than just a rebranded version of and Democratic Gov. Joe Kernan. Both campaigns tout the old one. But Wooten’s touting her outsider credentials. high percentages of Indiana contributors in fundraising an- She’s a homeschooler and anti-Common Core activist. nouncements, but much of the big money has come from “Schools are having to send home packets to the parents out-of-state sources sidestepping the $5,000 annual cap so the parents can help their kids with their homework. set by a 1986 state law for donations from corporations or That should not be happening,” says Wooten. Wooten unions. Pence’s campaign has received nearly $1.6 mil- describes herself as “a freedom-loving, almost more Tea lion from the Washington-based RGA Right Direction PAC, Party” candidate, a stance she predicts puts her in tune funded by the Republican Governors Association. Gregg’s with the Republican convention delegates who will choose campaign has reported its top donations were of $200,000 the nominee. McCormick says experience still counts. “Be- or slightly more each from six labor union PACs based out- ing a teacher for 10 years and then a principal has sat well side the state and the Democratic Governors Association. with folks out in the field. It’s also important to parents Horse Race Status: Tossup. when I talk to them that I have been in the classroom and I understand what it’s like to lead a district.” Horse Race Congress Status: Likely McCormick. v

8th CD: Orentlicher files for recount David Orentlicher officially filed for a recount yes- Page 13

became the odd men out. They’ve seen their incomes Tremors from Trump, slide over the years as their personal economic lives have become filled with uncertainty. Trump’s supporters want their jobs and their fu- Cruz and Sanders tures put back together like they once were, and they are By CRAIG DUNN willing to trust the Donald to deliver. KOKOMO – Okay, let’s cut out the bull and talk The Cruz campaign largely consisted of the about what the presidential primary results were all about. soundly religious wing of the Republican Party. He made The Trump, Cruz and Sanders campaigns were all about his name fighting against the inexorable social change revolution. The masses are damn angry and they have rolling over our country. With the Constitution in one hand made their voices heard. That’s and a Bible in the other, Cruz’s obstinate refusal to play how we do revolutions in a nice with others drove his genteel comrades in the United democracy. Rebel at the ballot States Senate crazy. While he waged a quixotic campaign box! in the U.S. Senate against gay rights, abortion rights and It is unarguable that anything the Obama Administration did that clashed with the Trump, Cruz and Sanders his interpretation of the Constitution, Cruz became the campaigns were about battling darling of those who generally believe that Roe v. Wade the status quo. Although each marked the beginning of the great American slide into candidate found a somewhat oblivion. different set of elements to Cruz supporters see a return to Biblical principles assail, each of their campaigns and values as the only way our nation may be saved from was born from an anger that the evils of the world. Every problem has a solution found had been building for close to somewhere between Genesis and Revelation. 50 years. Just like an earthquake fault line, the longer the Campaigning for president with Jesus as your run- interval between pressure relieving quakes, the greater the ning mate and the Bible as your playbook is always a good magnitude of the tremor. The current political situation is formula for locking down a good 25% of the Republican somewhat akin to linking the San Andreas fault to the New vote. Unfortunately for Cruz, playing the religious card in Madrid fault and watching the United States political scene 2016 was Trumped by the America first, nativist message. go shake, rattle and roll. An unemployed or underemployed American worker is a The typical Donald Trump supporter that I’ve met Trump supporter first, second and last. All other consider- is terribly angry about what they perceive as the decline of ations are just background noise. American greatness. They long for a time when we were What about the revolutionaries on the Democrat the only big kid on the block internationally. Trump sup- side? Bernie Sanders supporters represent a sad element porters are tired of not finishing and winning wars. They of our modern political revolution. They believe the deck is want an end to wars fought with no clear definition of vic- stacked solidly against their futures by the evil partnership tory. of Wall Street, big business and fat cat millionaires who They love the middle class and have been sick- don’t believe in sharing. The typical Bernie Sanders sup- ened by the steady outsourcing of jobs to Mexico, China, porter ran up tens of thousands of dollars in student debt India and everywhere else, where children and adults work while pursuing a college degree in philosophy, archaeology for pitifully low wages in factories unprotected and unob- or modern feminism. They are deeply troubled by the fact structed by government regulations. that our world economy today is not looking for philoso- Trump supporters remember when Americans phers, archaeologists or modern feminists. made tangible things that people needed and you could Thus, driven into the underbelly of the American understand the entire manufacturing and distribution economy, working as baristas at Starbucks, these 21st process from mining raw materials, assembling the prod- Century idealists blame Wall Street and Republicans for ucts and then distributing the products around the world. their misery. Cobbling together a ragtag army of the disaf- A good hard worker could find a good job straight out of fected, Bernie Sanders has led a doomed but determined high school, live a comfortable life, raise his family, have nuisance campaign that has tied Hillary Clinton up in a nice home and retire with some dignity. They openly knots. After all, despite her many overtures to the prole- disdain the Silicon Valley billionaires who have made a tariat, she is the leading recipient of Wall Street largesse fortune manufacturing products or ideas that don’t require and the 74-year-old socialist Bernie Sanders just won’t put a big hunk of steel. down his political Molotov cocktail of class warfare and go Trump supporters don’t buy the economic mes- home to Smuggler’s Notch. sage that free trade is good for them. They ignore the Sanders supporters are loud, shrill, unwavering, fact that millions of jobs have been created by free trade. committed, focused and seldom confused by the facts. Why? Because their skills and geographic location didn’t They are the perfect left wing counterparts to Trump’s correspond to the realities of a world economy and they forces in the new American Revolution. Page 14

How does all of this end? I’m not sure. It is safe he will pay a terrible price in 2020. Either way, the angry to assume that the majority of the votes cast during this voter of 2016 will be with us for quite some time. primary season were by voters who were as mad as hell Let us hope for all of our sakes that the angry and not willing to take it anymore. These voters will not revolution of 2016 remains confined to the ballot box and go away after the November election. If Hillary Clinton that the pitchforks and guillotines remain locked away in wins and does nothing but continue the economic, moral another time. v and international slide of our nation, then 2020 will make the 2016 look like child’s play. If Donald Trump wins and Dunn is chairman of the Howard County Republican does not deliver on his promises of bluff and bluster, then Party.

against the little guy in one endeavor or another. He will Trump is no friend betray working-class voters just as readily as he told Fox & Friends that anything he says on the campaign trail is “just a suggestion.” of the working class Take a look at this completely contradictory behav- By SHAW FRIEDMAN ior on issues important to working class voters: Would he LaPORTE – To hear giddy Republicans like Craig support hiking the paltry $7.25 minimum wage? Nah. He Dunn tell it, they think that Donald Trump is the second believes that “wages are too high already” which he stated coming of Ronald Reagan in his appeal to white, working- at a November debate and then repeated on a morning class voters and his supposed ability to steal away “Rea- talk show. gan Democrats” this fall. As Lee Corso so often says on How about “making things in America” which his ESPN College Gameday predictions, “Not so fast, my is a stock part of his appeal? You think if he wanted to friend.” have credibility on that signature line in his stump speech There’s no question that Trump’s rather simplistic he wouldn’t outsource his trademarked clothing line to saber-rattling against admittedly weak trade deals has won low-wage Chinese factories. “It’s very hard to have any- him some initial converts, but I thing in apparel made in this country,” he blithely claimed predict we will win at least the to CNN. C’mon, Mr. Trump, you really think voters will necessary 40 percent of white buy that malarkey when there are still all kinds of domestic working-class voters across the clothing manufacturers hanging on for dear life who would country most experts say is nec- greatly have loved your clothing business? essary to carry our presidential Same with his casinos. Trump’s credibility as a ticket this fall, in addition to the savior for white working-class voters is put to the test ev- overwhelming numbers expected ery day as he fights maids, bartenders and food servers at from African-Americans, Hispanics, his five-star hotel in . Check out the protesters women and younger voters. outside the casino, who are furious that Trump refuses to See, the problem for Re- allow them to join a union which could raise their pay an publicans is that in the hard glare additional $3 an hour. of reality and the brutal testing of Trump’s simplistic solution for long-suffering work- a true general election campaign, either one of our Demo- ing families is to brag about simply putting a 45-percent cratic candidates has a better record of standing up for tariff on all goods shipped from China without talking working families to take to the voters than carnival barker about the inevitable trade war that would set off or the Trump, and a far stronger record on Wall Street account- need to target tariffs in particular industries. It’s just an ability and financial reform than Trump. easy applause line that he can’t possibly believe in or fol- Give the flamboyant showman his due. He’s low through with, particularly since Article 1 of the Con- been able to dupe many Republican and independent stitution says that responsibility for tariffs rests with the voters with these simplistic appeals about shredding trade congressional branch and not the executive. agreements and negotiating “smart and tough” trade Leaders of organized labor who know that deals, but all his actions, whether in business or politics, Trump is playing some of their members for fools in his have actually shown a complete indifference to the needs initial appeals won’t be dissuaded from truth-telling this of working families. fall either. Said Richard Trumpka, president of the AFL-CIO, The big problem for Trump is that at no time in “Trump isn’t interested in solving the problems he yells his lengthy career has he really shown a genuine sympa- about and swears about. He delivers punch lines.” thy or support for working families. This latest incarnation Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have far of Trump as someone who claims to “love the under- more credibility in terms of standing up to the enormous educated” belies a track record of consistently fighting financial forces that present such a threat to working-class Page 15 voters than Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton’s plan to rein in U.S. Congress, whether it was going after big bonuses to Wall Street was laid out well in a New York Times op/ed bank execs, proposing a financial transactions tax, or even dated Dec. 7, 2015, that talks about real protections for pushing to cap credit card interest rates at 15 percent. working families such as the Consumer Financial Protection Yes, it’s still a little messy on our side until this Bureau, and efforts to get a handle on the worst practices primary season is over, but I’ll bet you dollars to donuts, and risky behaviors of the financial industry that nearly Craig, that when the Sanders and Clinton camps finally cratered our economy in 2008. She plans to strengthen make peace and reconcile on a program and a platform, the Volcker Rule to close the loopholes that allow bankers the combined muscle mass of these two candidates and to make speculative gambles with taxpayer-backed de- their equally strong records of advocating for working posits. She wants tough regulation and jail for execs who families will “trump” the shallow and empty appeals that cross the line. Outsized executive compensation would also “the Donald” is making right now. be reined in. To borrow the phrase of one ole Texas pol, Trump While there are variations in the type of finan- is “all hat and no cattle” when it comes to really advocat- cial sector regulation proposed by Bernie Sanders, I expect ing the economic interests of working-class families. In ad- that somehow all that will get hashed out in platform dition to rolling up big numbers with the Obama coalition discussions before our national convention in Philadelphia. of women, younger voters, African Americans and Hispan- Sanders has legitimately brought on board millions of ics, mark my words, we will secure at least the 40 percent supporters among working-class voters who are enraged of white working-class voters needed to win. v by income inequality and a sense that the system has been rigged to favor big bankers and wealthy executives. Shaw Friedman is former legal counsel for the Indi- Sanders rightly inveighs against “too big to fail” institutions ana Democratic Party and a longtime Howey Poli- and has the credibility and the record with having stood tics Indiana columnist. with working class voters during his entire time in the

control of Lake County. Lo and behold, they didn’t win any Lake GOP optimistic of the three districts. Following the 2010 Census, Republi- cans put greed aside hoping to win one district. And this is By RICH JAMES the year, so they think. The Republicans nominated Jerry MERRILLVILLE – There are those who contend Tippy of Schererville who will face long-time Commissioner that this could be a pretty good year for Republicans in Gerry Scheub in the fall. Scheub always has had an ability Lake County. Yeah, believe it or not, Republicans in Lake to draw a substantial Republican vote. The same year the County are feeling pretty good about themselves. Fore- state Republicans redrew the Lake County commissioner most for the GOP is the possibility of winning one of the districts to favor themselves, the Legislature also adopted three county commissioner seats, new Indiana House and Senate seats to further their own each of which is held by a Democrat. interests. If Republicans can’t win one of the Republicans William Fine and Julie Olthoff lost three seats this year, they have no the 12th and 19th House Districts, respectively, in Lake one to blame but their own. County in 2012, the first election after the new districts The Indiana Election Commission, were adopted. But things were different in 2014 when which is controlled by Republicans, Olthoff defeated Rep. Shelli VanDenburgh in the 19th Dis- redrew the 2nd County Commis- trict and Fine topped incumbent Mara Candelaria Reardon sioner District to give the GOP an in the 19th District. There will be replays in both races this excellent chance to win the district. year. And then, along came Donald Trump, the presump- It wasn’t a matter of responding to tive GOP presidential nominee. No one in their right mind population changes revealed in the had a clue that Trump would be heading the party’s ticket 2010 Census as some would have you believe. No, this in the 2016 general election. That scares a good number had everything to do with politics. of Republicans who fear that Trump’s presence on the What the state did was remove some heav- ballot could end up hurting other Republicans on down the ily Democratic precincts from the district, and add some ballot. It all raises an interesting question. Could the ger- precincts that produce a strong Republican vote. What rymandering by state Republicans go for naught because the election commission is trying to do is make up for the the party is about to nominate a loose cannon to be their mistake it made following the 2000 Census. Back then, man for president? v the commission drew the three Lake County commissioner districts with the hope that Republicans could win two Rich James has been writing about state and local of the three districts and take financial and operational government and politics for more than 30 years. Page 16

in the 35 to 40 range, with the rest of the states holding 2016 cycle a smashing lower turnout caucuses. (Caucus results are not included in the tallies in this article because caucuses are run differ- ently from primaries and draw a fraction of the votes that hit at the polling booth are cast in primaries.) By RHODES COOK Second, in many of the states that hold CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. – No matter what one primaries, not every registered voter can cast a ballot. In thinks of this often surreal presidential primary campaign, “closed” primary states, where only voters affiliated with a it has been a hit at the ballot box. Republicans have particular party can participate in that party’s primary, the already smashed their record of 20.8 million ballots, set in large swath of independent voters is excluded. 2008. Through the May 10 contests, the 2016 GOP pri- And third, in most election years the nomination mary turnout stands at 26.1 million and counting. in at least one party is settled long before the end of the Democrats are on course to have their second- primary season. That is the case for the Republicans this highest presidential primary turnout year, with Trump clearing the last of ever. Their record of 36.8 million his 16 rivals from the GOP race in votes (the high for both parties) for the wake of Indiana’s May 3 prima- the Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton ry. For all practical purposes, Trump race in 2008 is well out of reach will be running unopposed for both Democrats and Repub- from here on out, and the GOP licans this year. But with nearly turnout in future primaries 22.2 million primary votes cast could very well be much more thus far in 2016, the Democrats modest than if the Republican should soon breeze past their contest had remained competi- second-highest total of nearly tive. 23 million primary votes cast in Still, those who do vote in 1988. the presidential primaries are Put the two 2016 num- often a decent cross-section of bers together and the combined each party’s base. They tend to total of Democratic and Republi- be the more loyal voters, while can primary votes this year could the general election tends to very well reach an all-time high. attract many of those who are The current total of nearly 48.3 more casual in their voting million is within 10 million of the habits. record 57.7 million votes cast in both parties’ primaries in At this point, the $64,000 2008. And in that year, 8 million primary votes were cast question is what the high turnouts in this year’s primaries in California alone (which will hold its primary this year on might mean for the fall. June 7). If 2008 is a guide, there very well could be a The major reason for the Republican primary record number of voters swarming the polls in November. turnout success this year is obvious: Donald Trump. He Eight years ago, the expansive primary turnout in the is unique, compelling, irreverent, and “in your face” – a winter and spring was followed by a record presidential media “darling” who has been intriguing to voters, a election turnout of 131 million voters in the fall. nightmare for much of the Republican establishment, and But it is much harder to tell at this point whether befuddling to his primary opponents. There is little doubt either party would enjoy an advantage. There are few that he has attracted hordes of voters to the Republican historical precedents, with this being only the fourth open primaries, though there have surely been many others election for president since the primary-dominated era in who have cast a GOP ballot in order to vote against him. nominating politics began in the early 1970s. Trump’s emergence has tended to overshadow In the open election of 1988, nearly 11 million the Democratic contest, although Hillary Clinton has devel- more ballots were cast in the Democratic primaries than oped a winning primary coalition of women and minorities, the GOP, but Republican George H.W. Bush was elected and her long-running rival, Bernie Sanders, has built a pas- president that fall. sionate army of supporters that rivals Trump’s. In the open election of 2000, fully 3 million more Yet even in high-turnout years such as this one, primary votes were cast on the GOP side, and Republican the number of primary voters has never reached even George W. Bush won the White House. But it was a weird 50% of the November presidential election turnout. There election. Bush won the all-important electoral vote, while are several reasons for this. Democrat Al Gore took the popular vote, creating the first First, not every state holds a presidential primary. Electoral College “misfire” in more than a century. Since 1980, the number of primaries has stayed largely Only in the open election of 2008 was there a clear cor- Page 17 relation between the primary turnout and the November But there are flies in the ointment for both Clinton outcome. That year, 16 million more votes were cast in and Trump. She has been faltering in the homestretch, the Democratic primaries than the Republican ones, which losing primaries in Indiana and West Virginia to Sanders proved a precursor of Democratic success that fall. in the last two weeks. Both were states that Clinton won In 2016, the Republican edge in the primary against Obama eight years ago. Before this month, Clinton vote is much smaller than the Democrats enjoyed in 2008. also lost primaries in several battleground states – Michi- Coming out of the May 10 primaries in and West gan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin – where indepen- Virginia, the GOP margin stands at 4 million votes and dents, a key part of the November electorate, could vote. shrinking. Among the eight states left to hold their presi- As for Trump, he did not win a majority of the dential primaries are deep blue California and New Jersey. Republican primary or caucus vote until his home state And in 2008, more than 2 million more votes were cast on of New York voted April 19. It is an indication that the the Democratic than Republican side of the California bal- Manhattan billionaire was the beneficiary of “divide and lot. conquer” when the GOP field was larger, a tactic that GOP turnouts were particularly impressive this would be more difficult to exploit in a two-way race in the year in the early weeks of the primary season. In Texas fall. March 1, for instance, there were more than 2.8 million So, what lies ahead as this year’s presidential cam- Republican primary votes compared to barely 1.4 million paign pivots from the high-turnout primaries to the general Democratic. It was a complete reversal of the 2008 prima- election scuffling? Without a decided partisan primary ry vote, when nearly 2.9 million Texans took a Democratic turnout advantage this year as there was for the Demo- ballot, while less than 1.4 million voted on the Republican crats in 2008, this author’s crystal ball looks a bit hazy. side. Still, there will surely be pundits six months from now who The GOP primary turnout advantage this year will look back at the 2016 election and say: “Oh, yes, we has been evident in traditional battleground states such saw that coming in the primaries.” v as Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, , Virginia, and Wisconsin. Trump leads Clinton in national Fox Poll But in recent weeks, Democrats have had the Donald Trump tops Hillary Clinton in a hypotheti- turnout edge in Democratic-oriented “closed” primary cal head-to-head matchup, according to a new states such as New York, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Poll that also finds majorities of voters feel both frontrun- Both Trump and Hillary Clinton have proven to be strong ners lack strong moral values and will say anything to get vote-getters in this year’s primaries. Clinton has won more elected. Trump has a 45-42 percent edge over Clinton, if primary votes than Trump (12.5 million to 10.7 million) the presidential election were held today. That’s within the and taken a higher percentage of the Democratic primary poll’s margin of sampling error. Last month, Clinton was vote than Trump (56.5% to 41.2%) in the more crowded up by 48-41 percent (April 2016). Clinton is ahead by 14 GOP field. points among women (50-36 percent). Yet Trump leads Trump, though, has won more primaries, 26 to by a larger 22 points among men (55-33 percent). v Clinton’s 22. And both candidates have built up comfortable leads over their nearest opposition in the aggregate nationwide primary vote. Clinton is running 15 per- centage points ahead of Sanders on the Democratic side, while Trump is 14 points in front of runner-up Ted Cruz in the now quiet GOP race. Trump’s showing in the primaries is in line with that of the last two Republi- can nominees during the competitive pe- riod of their primary campaigns. In early March 2008, John McCain had a 17-point lead in the aggregate primary vote (42% to 25%) over runner-up Mitt Romney at the point when McCain’s opposition had been whittled down to Ron Paul. In early April 2012, Romney held a 12-point lead (40% to 28%) over second-place when the latter quit the Repub- lican race. Page 18

Convention as he told a “tale of two cities,” contrasting Biden follows Cuomo the “shining city on the hill” seen by President Reagan with “the left out” in cities of neglect. Stirring oratory in footsteps to Notre Dame the keynote speech in San Francisco was interrupted by applause after almost every sentence. Many delegates By JACK COLWELL wished that Cuomo rather than Walter Mondale was to be SOUTH BEND -– A New York television crew was their nominee. at Notre Dame recently for interviews about campus reac- At Notre Dame, Cuomo spoke for 53 minutes and tion to the university’s invitation to a nationally known only once was interrupted by applause, for a joke about Catholic, a political figure publicly criticized by some bish- a political character named Fishhooks McCarthy. The New ops for not fighting against “choice” on abortion. York TV correspondent here for a documentary on Cuomo No, not Vice President Joe Biden. Biden was at noted from viewing close-up film of the speech that Cuo- Notre Dame commencement mo was sweating profusely at the conclusion. No wonder. Sunday to receive, along with Cuomo said afterward that he didn’t know what the silence former House Speaker John meant as he explained his acceptance of Catholic Church Boehner, the Laetare Medal, teaching on abortion, but contended that seeking to write described as “the oldest and that teaching in a constitutional amendment would be most prestigious honor accorded futile and dangerous. to American Catholics.” The Would the audience, listening so intently, ap- New York television station was plaud at the end or boo him out of Washington Hall? He looking farther back, nearly 32 joked at the start that he was perhaps playing the role of years ago, when the late Mario a key figure in a college biology lab, not as teacher but “as Cuomo, a Catholic then New York the frog.” In an oft-quoted passage, Cuomo declared: “We governor and widely regarded as know that the price of seeking to force our beliefs on oth- a future Democratic presidential ers is that they might some day force theirs on us.” nominee, spoke at Notre Dame, explaining where and why Most Americans didn’t favor banning abortion, he he drew a line between faith and law on abortion. said, and if an amendment to do so could somehow be Cuomo’s views then were similar to Biden’s now. pushed through, it “would be Prohibition revisited, legislat- Similar views brought similar reaction, similar debate, ing what couldn’t be enforced and in the process creating among Catholics, at Notre Dame and elsewhere: Should disrespect for law in general.” At the conclusion, Cuomo a Catholic political figure go received a standing ovation from beyond personal opposition to Notre Dame students and others abortion and push for govern- in the audience. Father Hesburgh mental action to ban all abor- praised his distinction between tion? And if the official didn’t personal faith and governmental listen to those in the clergy realism. There were, however, calling for a ban, should that of- protesters outside with signs calling ficial be welcomed at an official him a coward. event at Notre Dame, a Catholic Now, with such bitter university? partisanship, how would Biden be There was criticism of received? Biology class frog this Rev. Theodore M. Hesburgh, time? The vice president’s remarks then Notre Dame president, in accepting the Laetare Medal, for giving Cuomo a platform to calling for bipartisanship and speak. There is criticism now of respect and recalling the welcom- Rev. John Jenkins, current uni- ing words of Pope Francis, brought versity president, for selection loud applause, indeed a standing of Biden for the Laetare Medal. ovation from many in Notre Dame Some students and faculty Stadium, the commencement site. protested, then and now. Most, Former House Speaker , Notre Dame Outside, a couple of dozen protest- each time, welcomed a national President John Jenkins and Vice President Joe Biden ers at the main gate, some from political figure and were not of on last Sunday’s commencement. (South Bend Tribune Chicago, held signs with messages one mind on the divisive abortion such as “Shame on Notre Dame.” issue. Similarities abound from 32 years ago and now. v Cuomo’s speech on Sept. 13, 1984, drew national attention due to his subject and because earlier Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- that summer he had electrified the Democratic National cades for the South Bend Tribune. Page 19

Ryan Nees, Facebook: One remarkable, and important respect. He attacked the Republican establish- remarkably undiscussed, oddity about Donald Trump’s ment as low-energy, cowering weaklings. Now Republican campaign is the near total absence of ordinary people. leaders are lining up to surrender to him — like low- Trump doesn’t visit diners and meet voters who tell him energy, cowering weaklings. The capitulation has justified about their lives. He doesn’t hold townhalls and take their the accusation. It would be impolite to name names. So I questions. He doesn’t glad hand with them at pig roasts. should not mention that former Texas governor Rick Perry, He never personally meets disabled people, or jobless who now angles for Trump’s vice presidential nod, once people, or the families of shooting victims, or the kids of said: “He offers a barking carnival act that can be best de- immigrants, or LGBTQ people, or black and scribed as Trumpism: a toxic mix of demagogu- brown people brutalized by police, or people ery, mean-spiritedness and nonsense that will without health insurance, or non-Christians. lead the Republican Party to perdition if pursued. Or, replace these folks with their conservative Let no one be mistaken — Donald Trump’s can- counterparts. Has he met with evangelicals didacy is a cancer on conservatism, and it must forced to marry gay people, or manufacturing be clearly diagnosed, excised and discarded.” I workers who have had their jobs outsourced, should resist the temptation to recall how Rep. or families forced to pay Obamacare penalties, or a vet- Peter King (N.Y.), who now (reluctantly) backs Trump, eran mistreated by the VA, or a victim of some immigrant- once asserted he is “not fit to be president, morally or committed rape, or a hunter threatened by gun control? intellectually.” Singling out individuals is unfair in so great Indeed we have scarcely little evidence he has ever, over a company. One by one, Republican senators have made the entire course of his campaign, met another person and their peace with a Trump nomination. Many in the House then felt empathy for that person as a result. His is a cam- GOP leadership and caucus have urged Speaker Paul D. paign conducted in airport hangar rallies, over telephone Ryan (Wis.) to get it over with and endorse the presump- interviews, on cable news, and by Twitter. Photo ops may tive Republican nominee. It is humorous — in a sad, bitter, be staged things, but consider a campaign that has never tragic sort of way — to see Republican leaders, and some held any at all. Trump has given up an opportunity to conservative commentators, try to forget or minimize use his campaign to learn about the country he hopes to Trump’s history of odious proposals and statements.v lead.v Jeff Greenfield, Politico: If you’re masochistic Doug Ross, NWI Times: The Republican Party is enough to plow through the next three months of vice on the cusp of a major change. The selection of Donald presidential speculation, you might want to pause and ask Trump as the presumptive GOP nominee in the presidential a more fundamental question: Why would anybody want race is a clear sign of that. So is the pronouncement by that job under Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? If either House Speaker that, in effect, the presidency of them becomes president, we will probably see the doesn’t trump Congress. But what will that change be? most marginalized vice president in a generation. Imagine And how will the party’s tenets change with Trump as the yourself as Trump’s vice president. What are your chances leading standard bearer? That remains to be seen. The of serving as a trusted, respected adviser on politics and crystal ball is, at best, murky. We’re seeing a deep fracture policy? Look at the last president who had something like in a party, something former Gov. Mitch Daniels hinted at the mixture of massive self-regard and massive insecurity when he urged the party to call a truce on social issues that defines Trump, Lyndon Baines Johnson. Having lived and focus on fiscal conservatism. Ryan is a staunch fiscal through the hell of being a scorned and shunned vice- conservative. Trump is a shoot-from-the-hip kind of guy, president under John Kennedy — “I hated every minute which went over well in last week’s Indiana primary. Trump of it,” he later said — he treated his own second, Hubert received 590,170 votes in Indiana, more than all eight Humphrey, with equal contempt. In 1968, Johnson made other candidates combined. He stands for…well, it’s hard clear his contempt for his would-be successor (“Hubert to say what he stands for. Trump has focused so much on squats when he pees”). Trump’s contempt for rivals, critics living in the moment that it’s difficult to see a clear path and even allies makes LBJ’s bullying look like something for the future from him so far. Chris Salatas, Lowell Town out of Mr. Rogers. The video of him curtly ordering en- Council president and chairman of the Lake County Young dorser Chris Christie to “get on the plane and go home” Republicans, offered a good definition of Trump Repub- ought to be fair warning that a vice president under Trump licans, the latest group to join the Republicans’ big tent: should not expect better. The challenge is different for a “disenfranchised people that are just fed up with the way prospective Clinton running mate—and one that no past the system works.” v veep has ever faced. Yes, past vice presidents have found themselves in a battle for the ear of POTUS with key White House aides and Cabinet members. But they’ve never had Michael Gerson, Washington Post: Michael the challenge of competing with a presidential spouse who Gerson, Washington Post: In the category of credit where also happens to be a former two-term president. v credit is due, Donald Trump has been exactly right in one Page 20

vacancy on the U.S. District Court for tional standards and make it harder Ellspermann to the Southern District of Indiana. Ong, for schools to qualify for federal as- a native of Evansville and resident of sistance so they can offer free meals head Ivy Tech Indianapolis, graduated from DePauw schoolwide (Groppe, IndyStar). Rokita, University and has spent most of his R-Indianapolis, argues that the bill INDIANAPOLIS — In a move career working in Indiana. Ong cur- would give schools greater flexibility that was widely expected once she rently serves as Chief of the Criminal in meeting nutritional standards while resigned as lieutenant governor of Division for the U.S. Attorney’s Office targeting assistance to students most Indiana, Sue Ellspermann became the in the Southern District of Indiana. in need. “This is hardly unreasonable, next president of Ivy Tech University and it’s hardly unfair,” he said, after on Wednesday (Osowski, Evansville Messer authors complaining that critics had turned the Courier & Press). The Ivy Tech board bill into a “partisan food fight.” Demo- of trustees made the move official at restroom bill crats say the bill would result in fewer the school’s Indianapolis headquar- kids eating healthy meals. “This bill is ters. The announcement came after WASHINGTON — U.S. Rep more representative of child nutrition months of speculation that Ellsper- introduced the Public policy out of ‘The Hunger Games,’” mann would get the job, replacing School Act (H.R. 5275) which states said Virginia Rep. Bobby Scott.. retiring president Tom Snyder, who that decisions regarding gender iden- has been at the helm since 2007. tity and the use of school bathrooms Misconduct case Ellspermann, originally and locker rooms should be from Dubois County, made at the State and lo- filed vs. Brizzi will become the school’s cal level, not by the federal ninth president and is government. It also ensures INDIANAPOLIS — The Indiana the first woman to hold no school would face Federal Supreme Court’s Disciplinary Commis- the position. She will penalties for failing to comply. sion recommended disciplinary action start on July 1. “I am so “Everyone on both sides of Monday against former Marion County excited to be back in higher educa- this debate should be treated with prosecutor Carl Brizzi (WRTV). A veri- tion,” Ellspermann said. “We are going respect,” said Congressman Messer. fied complaint for disciplinary action to take Indiana to new heights and “And, through public discourse, I filed this week claims Brizzi committed we will do it together.” “The historic believe we can come to a solution three violations of the Rules of Profes- selection of Sue Ellspermann as the that protects the privacy and dignity sional Conduct for Attorneys at Law next president of Ivy Tech Community of everyone involved. But, it’s irre- related to a real estate deal in Elkhart, College is a win for education in In- sponsible for the Obama Administra- Indiana, and a plea deal given in a diana and for the more than 170,000 tion to begin this social experiment criminal case in Marion County – both students who will benefit from her in the bathrooms of our nation’s connected to his friend and then- energetic and visionary leadership,” elementary schools. Decisions of this business partner Paul Page. Two co- Gov. Mike Pence said. “I commend the magnitude should be made at the defendants in that case, John M. Bales Board of Trustees and members of the state and local level by people who II and William E. Spencer, were found search committee for choosing this will put the interest of our kids ahead not guilty by a St. Joseph County jury. uniquely qualified leader to serve as of political ideology.” On May 13th, Brizzi, who owned the building jointly president of the largest post-second- the Justice Department issued guid- with Page, was never charged. Ac- ary institution in our state and offer ance to schools across the country cording to the disciplinary complaint my heartfelt congratulations to my regarding transgender students. It filed against Brizzi, the former pros- friend and former Lieutenant Governor states schools must allow transgender ecutor had an agreement with Page on her selection. students to use the bathrooms and that he would receive 50 percent of locker rooms of their gender identity, any proceeds from real estate busi- Coats, Donnelly not their biological sex or face losing ness he brought to Page’s company, Federal funding under Title IX. L&BAB LLC. The complaint alleges speak for Ong Brizzi failed to disclose his interest in Rokita school lunch the deal in statements of economic WASHINGTON — Sens. interest he was required by law to Dan Coats (R-Ind.) and Joe Donnelly bill passes panel file as prosecutor. Brizzi told RTV6 he (D-Ind.) testified before the Senate was surprised with the disciplinary Judiciary Committee during a hearing WASHINGTON — WASH- commission’s complaint. “They sent a on judicial nominations. The Indiana INGTON — A divided House panel letter last year stating all matters were senators spoke in support of Winfield Wednesday approved Rep. Todd Roki- closed,” he said. D. Ong, who was nominated to fill the ta’s bill that would change the federal school lunch program to ease nutri-