The Numerical History of Airplane Manufacturing in Xx Century

THE NUMERICAL HISTORY OF AIRPLANE MANUFACTURING IN XX CENTURY

Yuri V. Kuzmin, Ph. D. TsAGI: Central Aero-Hydrodynamic Institute, Russia

Keywords: airplane manufacturing history XX century authors [1-4] give us very different numbers Abstract (see Fig.1). The database containing information about The distinction between data usually more than 18000 airplane models, created emerges not because of mistakes, but because of during XX century, their characteristics and different methods of counting even in production data is prepared by author. Analysis government reports. Unfortunately very rare the of this database information gives answers on author describes calculation method in details, many questions about the aviation history. sometimes these methods are unknown at all. How many airplanes were built during XX Fig.1. Aircraft production in Germany during 1940-1942 according to [1-4] century? How did it performances grow? What is common and different in the development of 16000 aviation industry of countries? When the rises 14000 and falls were happened, were their reasons 12000 local, national, or worldwide? Some answers 10000 1 2 are given in this report. 8000 3 6000 4 1. The problem: how to count airplanes 4000 2000

Questions I’ve been interested, are: how many 0 airplanes were built in the world, in which 1940 1941 1942 countries, for what purposes, how did it characteristics grew from year to year, how did So, readers must be vigilant. For example, their aerodynamic schemes and construction in the very informative book [5] 301 Breese material changes, which countries were Penguins are counted as airplanes. But it were technological leaders in different historical just ground trainers absolutely unable to fly. periods and so on. Sometimes it is difficult to separate powered airplanes and sailplanes. In many USA 1.1 A lot of different numbers books transport gliders and military trainer sailplanes are added to the airplanes. For But wasn’t all that answered earlier? The example, 253 TG-5 gliders often are added to historiography of aviation consists of hundreds the total amount of Aeronca airplanes. The mix thousands articles and many thousands books, up of calendar and financial years; produced, and there are a lot of numbers, describing ordered and delivered airplanes; airframes and aircraft production and it’s characteristics and completed airplanes also are not rare cases. performances, but the numbers in books and even in official government reports differ from 1.2 To count plane by plane each other. For example, let ask several known The other method to get aggregated numbers is authors how many airplanes were produced in to count starting from the bottom, to count all Germany in 1940-1942, and four authoritative modifications, produced in the world during the century. Yes, it’s very time consuming activity. 2. The general view But in result one may not only say how many On my previous report [6] I’ve published airplanes were produced, but which airplanes, preliminary results: 2,1 millions airplanes were their characteristic and so on. built during XX century. Он this report I’ve told I’ve prepared the database using Microsoft that, according my estimates, I’ve counted about Access DBMS and fill it with the information 96% aircrafts. The estimation was good enough, about aircraft producers, designers, models of during four years the total number grew up to airplanes, it’s qualitative (aerodynamic scheme, 2,18 millions and, I hope, I’ve counted about used materials, general layout, power plant data 99% of total world production. and so on) and quantitative characteristics (size, So, in XX century in the world there were mass, speed, range, armament/ payload etcetera) produced almost 2,18 millions airplanes. When I made previous report [6] there were about 16000 airplane modifications in the database, now it number increased up to 18000 2.1. By countries and more than 30000 records about aircraft The total production in 20 century is (thousands production (year, model, firm, quantity, the of airplanes) by countries is: source of information). Only powered, manned USA 956 heavier than air aircraft with the lift created by USSR, Russia 324 fixed wings, built in XX century, were counted. Great Britain 256 Rogallo-winged, flexible winged aircraft and Germany 196 powered paragliders were not counted. Only France 135 fully assembled airplanes counted: it’s Japan 97 especially important for such models as Bede Italy 48 BD-4 and BD-5, where I took very conservative Other 168 estimations, although thousands of hit were sold For Germany the airplanes manufactured in worldwide. occupied countries during WW2 (almost 8000) More than 10000 bibliographic sources are not counted, BRD and DDR are counted were used, including data from Russian state altogether. archives, yearbooks like “Jane’s all the world’s For Great Britain dominion production aircraft”, “Flugzeugtypenbuch” “Aircraft data (Australia, Canada, India, South Africa) is not yearbook”, monographs, magazine articles, included, although dominions produced almost reports of aircraft producers, government 24 thousands airplanes before 1947 year. official reports, FAI data, data of national Fig.2. Shares of leading countries in airplane production aircraft registers, and a lot of other. Technical in XX century. Here and later USSR means USSR and data was taken from official documents (pilot Russia notes, handbooks of operation and so on), 7,7% producer information or, when it’s impossible – 2,2% USA 4,4% from the handbooks and articles. Only USSR unclassified sources were applied. 9,0% GBR Also there are data about 16000 events 43,9% (first flights, certifications, aviations records and FRA 6,2% so on), 6600 persons, 4600 aviation engines and GER many more in the database. JAP I often compared my results with other sources. For example, the difference between 11,7% ITA NASM and my data about the production of Other airplanes in USA year by year is less than 1%. 14,9% All results represented below received by the author on the basis of information To compare countries by number of collected in the database. modifications is more complicated deal, because THE NUMERICAL HISTORY OF AIRPLANES MANUFACTURING IN XX CENTURY

there is a question, how do define Fig.3. Dynamic of airplane production in XX century “modification”. Is F-16 Block 5 and Block 50 700000 one model or two? What about hundreds variants, impressed by Bleriot XI at the 600000 Other 500000 beginning of 1910s? But evidently the first Japan Germany 400000 place (>5000) has USA, the second (>3000) – France GBR 300000 France, basically for the huge number of varied USSR USA aircraft built before the Great War. Then Great 200000

Britain, USSR + Russia, Germany, Italy and 100000 Japan go. We see the same seven countries, but 0 06- 11- 16- 21- 26- 31- 36- 41- 46- 51- 56- 61- 66- 71- 76- 81- 86- 91- 96- their order is slightly different. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 In XX century only few countries played important role in aircraft production, and there During the Great War the sky was was one indisputable leader: USA manufactured divided between Britain, France and Germany, about 4/9 of all world production. 90% of world the airplane manufacturing in other countries production was made by six leading countries. was not so sufficient. Only 11 countries produced more 10000 The fall in production after the WW1 airplanes each: among seven named before they was much more dramatic, than after WW2: 10 are Canada (36 K airplanes), Czechoslovakia times at the first case and only 6 – in the second. (32 K), Poland (23 K) and China (about 15 K). In 1920s, the USA became the first The situation began to change in the end of country, when civil airplane, sold on market, XX century and later, new important players were more numerous than military ones, but in emerge, at first it’s Brazil with EMBRAER, but result the Great depression was the real shock concentration on market still remains high and for American industry. even becomes higher, for example, for the passenger airliners. Some manufacturer joins, Fig.4. Shares of countries in airplane production some, like Fokker and Dornier disappears and 100% it’s difficult to obtain now, which tendency: 90% 80% centralization or decentralization will lead in 70% Other Japan 60% future. Germany 50% France GBR 40% 2.2. Production by 5-year periods USSR 30% USA It’s very difficult task to create full picture of 20% year-by-year world airplane production. For 10% 0% example, the mentioned before mixes of 06- 11- 16- 21- 26- 31- 36- 41- 46- 51- 56- 61- 66- 71- 76- 81- 86- 91- 96- 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 calendar and financial years, of built and delivered airplanes would give sufficient mistakes. In 1920-1930’s two other big aircraft So let us increase the time lag to the five industrial complexes arise in Japan and Soviet. years. With such approach we reduce mistakes But from the 1940 the domination of USA is sufficiently but still have interesting dynamical evident and they keep more than half of airplane picture. market till now. There are two sharp peaks on the graph, corresponding to the Great War and the Second 2.3. The beginning World War: 193 K airplanes in 1916-20 and The aircraft production had very fast almost 750 K, it’s more, than 1/3 of the century start, especially in comparison with production, during 1941-45. 10% of all contemporary practices. 111 different models of airplanes, built in XX century, were airplanes were produced from 1903 to 1908, and manufactured in 1944 year only. more than half, 61, really completed the flight.

3 A “mass production” also began in this Fig.7. Airplane models by number of wings before 1908 period: Voisin-Standard in 1908 became the 70 first-in-the-world airplane, manufactured on the 60 prepaid conditions (Lilienthal glider was also a serial produced vehicle, but it’s not an airplane). 50 The results are presented in Fig.5 and 40 they are very different from data published by 30 my colleague in [9]. 20 Fig.5. Number of new airplane models, 1903-1908

45 10

40 0 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 35 Monoplane Biplan Other 30

20 2.4. Russia: year after year 15 For the airplane production in Russia/USSR 10 more accurate information was collected, so we 5 presented graphs not by 5-year periods but year 0 after year. Preliminary data were published in 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 [7] and [8], but new data, shown on Fig.8, are Non-flyable Flyable more accurate. Fig.8. Airplane production in Russia and USSR and it On the Fig.6 is shown that at first period total mass in metric tons year after year three countries had leading roles: France, UK 130000 40000 and USA, but from 1906 the indisputable 120000 35000 110000 favorite was France. 100000 30000 Fig.6. Airplanes production by countries till 1908 90000 80000 25000 70 70000

20000 60000 Tons 60 Airplanes 50000 15000 40000 50 10000 30000

20000 40 5000 10000

30 0 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20 Airplanes Tons (empty mass)

10 In XX century Russia/USSR produced 0 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 more than 324000 airplanes with total mass

FRA GBR USA Other almost 1,7 million tons. It gives to Russia the second place in the world after the USA.

The total mass of aircraft produced is The Fig.7 shows that although biplane roughly proportional to the material and labor scheme was most often used, probably, because expenses and it value more correctly of Chanute and Herring gliders success and, of corresponds to the power of aircraft industry course, because of Wright brothers, the than just number of airplanes. For example, monoplane, created in motorless form by estimations in tons are constantly used by USA Lilienthal and Piltcher, also were popular. government (see, for example, [10]). Different multiplane experiments took share less One may see the high rate of 15%. industrialization during 1930s, the peak of

THE NUMERICAL HISTORY OF AIRPLANES MANUFACTURING IN XX CENTURY

WW2, the second and third peaks, Fig 10. Airplanes output in USA and in USSR, 1910-1940 corresponding to the Korean War in the 1950-53 14000 and to the Cold War in the late Brezhnev period. 12000 The number of airplanes built decreases steadily from the middle of 1950s, but the total 10000 mass continues to grow. It means that the 8000 strength of the airplane production industry 6000 grows till the beginning of 1980s. The fall of 1990s looks very tragic. 4000

During last years the aircraft production in 2000 Russia began to grow again, but this is beyond 0 the scope of my report. 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 Collected data give us much more than Russia/USSR USA just information about airplane quantity. For example here is a graph of aircraft production in 2.5. USA: civil airplanes mass production Russia from 1910 (the beginning of aircraft manufacturing in the country) to 1940. The The next important question is: which airplanes, share of airplanes built according to the designs for which purposes were built, how this of domestic designers is also shown. It share in distribution changed with the time. Let us look 1917-1918 became high enough: about 1/2, only on one short, but interesting period: 1926- soon after it drops seriously, but in the 1930, the industrial boom and the beginning of beginning of 1930s the full turn to the domestic the Great Depression. design, corresponded with the grow of total The airplane production by purpose in output, also has happen. six leading world powers for these five years is shown on Fig.11. The yellow part joins civil Fig 9. Airplanes production in Russia 1910-1940 and the share of domestic designs in the total production light and sport airplane with one or two seats

12000 and military primary trainers, because it’s very 100% difficult to separate them. All other civil 10000 aircraft: general aviation with more than two 80%

8000 seats, passenger, mail, agriculture, ambulance,

60% transport (including military transports) aero-

6000 photography and so on joined as “Commerce” Airplanes 40% 4000 Fig 11. Airplane production in six leading countries in 1926-30 by purpose. 20% designes domestic Shareof 2000 18000

0 0% 16000 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 14000 Airplanes per year Domestic designs share 12000

10000

The next graph shows an airplane 8000 production in Russia in the same period in 6000 comparison with USA. 4000

We have seen on Fig.3, 4 that the Great 2000 depression dramatically influenced the USA 0 production but had no effect in USSR. FRA GBR GER JAP USA USSR Backward, it was the period of fast and steady Fighters Bombers Recon Sea Light/Train Commerce grow. The local minimum in 1935 was happen because to transfer to new types of airplanes, at The structure of output is very different. first, Tupolev SB and Polikarpov I-16. But at The share of combat aircraft in France, Japan the beginning of WW2 USA demonstrated the and USSR lies between 70% and 90%, in UK – huge industrial power and overtook the USSR. 5 more than 40%, and only two countries look The next abrupt change occurred in a quarter like «doves of peace»: USA and Weimar of century and we consider this in more detail in Germany. But the Germany structure of the next chapter. production is determined by Versailles limitations. Only USA really concentrated on the civil market. Thus policy gave to USA 3. The peak of 1970s and shrinking of 1980 aircraft industry the world priority at the first time: each third airplane during 1926-30 was 3.1. Not only oil price produced in USA. In the 1980s the airplane production sharply The Black Tuesday 29.10.1929 put the reduced everywhere (Fig.12). Usually, like in end to this idyllic state, the volume of airplane the previous case, it is explained by local production in USA between 1929 and 1932 reasons: overstrain of the Soviet economics decreases at 4,5 times. From the other hand, old because of the arms race, financial shortage in world aircraft industries continue to grow Europe, new legislations in USA and so on. because they were oriented mostly on military The second popular explanation aircraft production and got finances not from the connects the decline in production with the market, but from the governmental budgets. jump of oil prices in the 1973-1974. The both explanations seem to me inadequate. 2.6. The recession around 1960 Fig.13 shows, that the oil prices grew up about 10 years before the decline of the aircraft Let us look more closely on airplane production industry. The red line means inverted average after the World War II. After the end of Korean exchange price of oil: how many barrels of oil war the production of airplane was sharply one can buy for 100 USD. It is evident, that the decreased. Unexpectedly this recession affected growth of airplane production continued several not only military but also the civil aircraft and years after the oil price jump. influenced all airplane-produced countries. Fig.13. Airplane production in the world versus inverted Fig 12. Airplane production after WW2. oil price (how many barrels of oil one can buy on exchange for 100 USD). Oil prices taken from [11] 120000 30000 35

100000 30 Other 25000 80000 Japan Germany 25 20000 France 60000 GBR 20 USSR 15000 40000 USA

15 Barrels / 100 USD100 / Barrels 20000 10000

Airplanes built in the world the in built Airplanes 10

0 5000 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-00 5

0 0 Usually this recession is explained by 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 Airplanes Barrels/100$ local reasons: in USA – by the end of Korean war (but the Cold War didn’t finished and Local reasons seems inadequate because Berlin crisis was just on the edge of 1960s), in the shortage influenced all aircraft produced UK – by economical difficulties, in USSR – by countries and both military and civil airplane voluntaristic decisions of the Khruschev’s production, despite a new turn of the Cold War, government. But the Fig.12 clearly shows that connected with Soviet-Afghanistan war 1979- the reasons of the fall were more deep and that 1988, and other reasons. airplane production is affected mainly by some In my opinion the deep reason of this global causes. shortage is not clear, we’ve just demonstrated the phenomenon but it should be yet studied. THE NUMERICAL HISTORY OF AIRPLANES MANUFACTURING IN XX CENTURY

3.2. Manufacturing in USSR Fig.16. Manufacturing of jet passenger airplanes in USSR type by type, 1976-1990

Let us take more detailed look on USSR 260 production in 1976-1990. Fig.14 shows that 240 220 during this period both military and civil aircraft 200 production decreased. 180 Fig 14. Combat and non-combat (incl. military transport) 160 140

airplane production in USSR, 1976-1990 120

1400 100 1295 1300 1253 80 1211 1176 1200 1147 1157 60 40 953 1000 20

805 0 800 721 721 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 689 701 631 IL-62 IL-86 IL-96 Tu-134 Tu-144 Tu-154 Tu-204 Yak-42 Yak-40 600 516 500 515 487 465 478 415 384 400 266 247 228 234 219 229 226 During these years the production of Tu- 169 200 134 and Yak-40 was finished. But the rate of 0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 production of other types was also decreased.

Combat airplanes Non-combat airplanes Fig.17 shows, that not only number of jet passenger but also their total mass greatly

reduced at the first half of 1980s and grew The total mass and even total number of slightly at the second half of the decade. engines, installed in new airplanes, also steadily Fig.17. Manufacturing of jet passenger aircraft in USSR: falls from 1981 till 1986 (Fig.15). total quantity and total mass of airplanes

Suddenly, the decrease is not directly 300 8000 connected with Soviet “Perestroika” 1985-1991 256 7000 250 years, it begins much earlier. Conversely, during 229 210 6000 “Perestroika” the rate of production in pieces 200 172 5000 and tons was approximately constant and this 5- 166 150 135 4000 129

year period divides the recession of the fist half Tons Airplanes 3000 of 1980s and the collapse of the first half of 90s. 100 70 72 2000 Fig 15. Total mass of airplanes manufactured in USSR 57 58 57 45 49 and the number of their engines, 1976-1990 50 38 1000 16000 1400 0 0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 14000 1200 Airplanes Total mass 12000 1000 10000 800 So, new facts are: at the beginning of 1980 s 8000 600 the airplane production in USSR halved, and it

6000 Total mass, tons Total Engines installed installed Engines was before the “Perestroika”. This fall 400 4000 coincided in time with the recession in the 2000 200 aircraft industry in the world, so it reasons can’t 0 0 be localized just inside the USSR. 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total mass, tons Engines installed 3.3. Three waves of reduction There are attempts to explain this We have seen that recession of 1980s influenced recession by transfer to production of new types all airplane produced countries. But had this of airplane. But it is also inadequate. Let us see recession some fine time structure? The red line on Fig.16, shown the production of jet on Fig.17. represents the output of non-combat passenger airplanes in USSR. aircraft in USSR (author data) and the blue one - the output of general airplanes in USA [12].

7 Fig 17. Manufacturing of general airplanes in USA [12] 4. Development of aerodynamic and and non-combat airplanes in USSR, 1976-1990 construction of airplanes 18000 600

16000 Let us now talk not about the total output of 500 14000 airplanes, but how did airplanes changed with time with the help of the information collected 12000 400 in the database. 10000 300

8000 Airplanes, USA Airplanes, Airplanes, USSR Airplanes, 4.1. By scheme 6000 200

4000 Fig.19 shows the part of monoplanes, biplanes 100 2000 and multiplanes, including triplanes. During the

0 0 first decade of XX century monoplane 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 successfully competes with biplanes, but soon USA, general aviation USSR, non-combat airplanes after the era of biplanes has begun. This era was One see that the recession in USA has ended before the WW2. It’s interesting that began a bit earlier than in USSR and was more biplanes have found their own market niche and harsh are still being manufactured in notable Fig.18 represents the airplane production quantities in USA, USSR and in the all other world. It’s Fig 19. Monoplane and biplane shares in total airplane output in the world by 5-years periods interesting, that during 1946-1955 USSR 100% 4% manufactured more airplanes than all countries 15% 90% excluded USA. But look on the right columns: 80% the recession in “other world” has begun later, 70% than in USA and USSR. 60% Fig 18. Airplane production after WW2 in USA, in 50% 99% 98% 96% 97% 96% 96% 96% 97% 98% USSR/Russia and in the other countries 95% 94% 93% 40% 90000 73% 30% 55% 80000 20% 38% 34% 70000 25% 10% 15% 12% 60000 0% 2% 01- 06- 11- 16- 21- 26- 31- 36- 41- 46- 51- 56- 61- 66- 71- 76- 81- 86- 91- 96- 50000 USA 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 USSR 40000 Other Monoplanes Biplanes Multiplanes 30000

20000 Fig.20 shows what aerodynamic

10000 schemes were used for airplanes in the world.

0 The abbreviations are: 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-00 TB – truss (girder) biplanes, like Farman-IV; FB – fuselage biplanes (usually tractors); Of course, the phenomenon of 1980s in RB – biplanes with retracted gears; airplane industry requires additional study, but BM – brace or strut monoplanes, fixed gears; the first conclusions are: it was worldwide, it CM – cantilever monoplanes, fixed gears; has some deep international reasons, not RM – monoplanes with retracted gears; connected with the jump of oil prices and SW – swept winged monoplanes with retracted national government decisions, and it has the gears; “fine structure”: at first the recession began at DW – delta winged monoplanes; USA, almost immediately afterwards – in VG – variable geometry airplanes. USSR, and later in other countries. Contemporary fighters with “integrated layout” like F-22 or Su-27 counted as “delta winged”. THE NUMERICAL HISTORY OF AIRPLANES MANUFACTURING IN XX CENTURY

Fig 20. Airplanes by aerodynamic schemes, worldwide. Fig 21. Airplanes by aerodynamic schemes, Abbreviations are described above in the text Russia and USSR only. Abbreviations as on Fig.20

100% 100%

90% 90%

80% 80%

70% 70%

60% 60%

50% 50%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

0% 0% 01- 06- 11- 16- 21- 26- 31- 36- 41- 46- 51- 56- 61- 66- 71- 76- 81- 86- 91- 96- 01- 06- 11- 16- 21- 26- 31- 36- 41- 46- 51- 56- 61- 66- 71- 76- 81- 86- 91- 96- 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 TB FB RB BM CM RM SW DW VG TB FB RB BM CM RM SW DW VG

The graph on Fig.20 consists of two very The analysis of the database data gives different but overlapping periods. The first one, us interesting conclusions not only about the from the beginning to the 1960-s, is the period airplane production but also about dynamic of of fast progress. Girder biplanes vanishes and qualitative characteristics of airplanes. are replaced by fuselage biplanes, the last are soon replaced by monoplanes, than the era of 4.2. By materials cantilever monoplanes with retracted era begins. The new technology almost replaces the old Fig.22 shows changes in construction of one. airplanes during XX century. Here “wood” The peak of fixed gear monoplanes in aircraft means that at least wing and fuselage the late 1940s arises because of cutback of have wooden framework, the skin may be cloth, military production and reviving of civil market plywood or other. “Mixed” means that the after the WW2. airplane’s framework the wood and the metal The second period begins at 1950s. It are both widely used. “Metal” means only feature is not displacement, but coexistence of airplanes with metal stressed skin. old and new schemes. Each scheme has found Fig 22. Airplanes by main construction materials the own market niche, and this demonstrates the 100% transition of aircraft technology to the new state: 90% from “developing” to the “mature”. This 80% 70% transition was not simultaneous: in USSR this 60% happens about 10 years later than in USA. There 50% are several reasons for this fact, at first it is the 40% bigger share of combat aircraft in USSR 30% production, but the detailed discussion is 20% 10% beyond the scope of the report. 0% 01- 06- 11- 16- 21- 26- 31- 36- 41- 46- 51- 56- 61- 66- 71- 76- 81- 86- 91- 96- The graph for Russia/USSR (Fig.21) 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 seriously differs from the world-wide one: there Wood Mixed Metal/Cloth Metal New Mtrls. is noticeable reversal (devolution) in 1920s, more late transfer to the second period and very Like in the section 4.1, one can see fast changes big share of contemporary technologies – sweep of technologies, partial devolution after the wings, delta wings and, especially, airplanes WW2 and “niche markets” for old technologies with variable geometry. One of main reasons for from 1960s. Composite technology took notable this difference is the big share of military part of the 1970s but till the end of XX century aircraft in the total output. it share was small enough.

9 4.3. By purpose 85% airplanes built in 1916-1920 were combat In the section 2.5 there was shown that ones, most of remaining – military primary structure of airplane production sufficiently trainers. Between wars the share of combat depends on the country. The database gives the aircraft also was high, about the half. possibility to analyze it in details, country by country, period by period, but here only the Fig.24. Worldwide airplanes by purpose summary graph is given (Fig.23). 100% 90%

Here “Special” means experimental and 80% record aircraft, fire fighters, SAR, aerial 70% cartography, glider tugs, flying targets, flying 60% tankers and some other categories. 50% 40%

AWACS, EW, command & control aircraft 30% are treated as Reconnaissance. Multipurpose 20% airplanes of 1920s-1930s, like Breguet XIX, 10% 0% Hawker Hart or Audax and Polikarpov R-5, are 06- 11- 16- 21- 26- 31- 36- 41- 46- 51- 56- 61- 66- 71- 76- 81- 86- 91- 96- also categorized as “Recon”. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Sea aircraft are mostly base and deck patrol Bombers Attackers Recon Fighter Sea Commerce General Light Special aviation, deck fighters and attackers are in Then one may see two big peaks, “Fighter” and “Attack” categories respectively. corresponding to WW2 and Korean war: about «Transport» category unites passengers, 60% of airplanes, produced in these periods, cargo, mail and agriculture airplanes. It includes were combat ones! It means that world powers military cargo planes. consider the Korean conflict very seriously and “Light” category includes light, sport and this could have serious consequences for the tourist airplanes with one or two seats, light whole world. liaisons and primary trainers. Training-fighting But after this, happily, the share of combat airplanes and advanced military trainers are in aircraft constantly decreases and now airplanes the “Attack” category. serve first of all for transport and joy purposes. Of course, database gives possibility to The small increasing of the share of combat rearrange categories. Fig.23 shows that slightly airplanes in 1980s connected with the total more than half airplanes built in the XX century recession discussed here in the chapter 3. were a combat ones. Fig.23. Worldwide airplanes by purpose

0,9% 11,1% 5. A couple of interesting examples Bombers

24,1% Attacker The database provides a huge amount of data 7,9% s Recon for the analysis. Here are only two examples of this, and other may be prepared by request. Fighter 6,6% Sea 5.1. Technological leadership between Commer ce World Wars General 15,7% Light There were several periods of the very fast 23,4% airplane and airplane manufacturing Special 6,9% 3,5% technologies improvement. At the first decade of XX century the airplane learned to fly confidently and first aircraft manufactories The dynamic of this distribution is very appear, in the 1930s the metal construction, interesting. Like many other technologies, the retracted gears, cantilever monoplane scheme airplane was born for joy and knowledge, but again change the aviation sufficiently, the mass very quickly it became the weapon. More than production methods and scientific design THE NUMERICAL HISTORY OF AIRPLANES MANUFACTURING IN XX CENTURY

methods were used widely, and in 1950s there Fig.27. Share all-metal airplanes in total airplane output was a fast improvement of jet engines and sub- between World Wars and supersonic aerodynamic. Share of metal airplanes 100%

Let us look on the second period, called 90%

“the golden age of aviation”, and find out which 80% country was the technological leader at airplane 70% (not in airplane manufactory) field at that date. 60% Three new features were mentioned: 50% 40% monoplane scheme, retracted gears and all- 30% metal construction, included the stressed skin. 20% The share of such advanced aircraft: 10% 0% monoplanes, airplanes with retracted gears and 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 metal airplanes with the stressed skin in the total Germany USA USSR output of USSR/Russia, Germany and USA Suddenly we see the leadership of between 1921 and 1945 years is shown on the German aircraft builders in all three fields. Here Fig. 25 – Fig.27. Fig.25. Share of monoplanes in total airplane output we count not designs and not record attempts, between World Wars but the real manufacturing, the real output.

Share of monoplanes In Germany after the WW1 it was 100% forbidden to build military airplanes and 90% airplanes with high characteristics. In result 80% German aviation specialist built airplanes in 70% Britain (British Klemm), Denmark, Italy, 60%

50% Netherland, Sweden, Swiss, USSR; the

40% passenger liner Junkers F.13 during several 30% years was the most successful civil aircraft on 20% the world market, and the German technologies 10% have significant impact on the development of 0% 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 the airplanes in the old world. Germany USA USSR So, the numerical approach to the aircraft industry history, which becomes Fig.26. Share of airplanes with retracted gears in total possible by using quantitative information, airplane output between World Wars stored in the database, gives us new knowledge Share of airplanes with retracted gears and new view on the historical process. 100%

90%

80% 5.2. Overstrain of economics during 70% Great War 60%

50% In Chapter 4 the dynamic of qualitative airplane 40% characteristics was analyzed. Now let us give 30% one example of the analysis of quantitative 20% characteristics. On the Fig.28 the average speed 10%

0% of manufactured during the Great War combat 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 airplanes is represented. The speed, of course, is Germany USA USSR not the only important virtue of the combat aircraft, but it is one of cardinal. We excluded from analysis training aircraft because high maximal speed is not important for them and sometimes is even

11 harmful because it has bad influence on take-off not only because of revolutions, but because of and landing characteristics. the systematic shortcomings of economics of Fig.28. Average maximal speed of combat airplanes the Russian Empire, which manifested itself (without trainers, sport and transport) during WW2 since the beginning of the war. 200 So, the database gives us new knowledge not only about history of aircraft manufacturing, 180 but also about some moments of general history.

160

140 6. Conclusions Fig 29. The first successful aircraft ury is well-known, it’s 120 Wright Flyer. Here is the last new airplane model of XX Vmax of combat airplanes combat of Vmax Century: the first S-18 Stinger II performed the first flight 100 9 December 2000. Photo: Dave Mangham

80 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 FRA GBR GER ITA RUS USA

This graph may tell a lot about state of economy in countries, participated in the War. European countries-winners demonstrate the steady and fast grow from the beginning to the 1917 year (Italy – till the end of the war). The reason of decline in 1918 year for France and Britain is the reducing of fighters share in the total output, because the air supremacy was just achieved. The quantitative approach to the history of Germany shows very fast grow at the first airplane manufacturing tells as a lot not only period and even leadership in 1915 (the golden about aviation, but about the general history, time of formidable “Eindeckers”), but from riddles of war and peace, about technology 1916 the growth became weak. It means that the development laws. nation economy becomes overstrained and than In many cases it turns out, that even exhausted. phenomena, treated as local by historians, have worldwide nature, like recession of airplane USA shows the fine pace of the growth, but manufacturing in 1980s. The general laws of the it absolute results are extremely low in aviation technology development also became comparison with European leaders. It reflects more evident, and a lot of myth disappears. the fact that USA long time was far from war Some examples of results, got with the help of and explains, why USA bought a lot of airplanes the database, are given in this report. from European allies. The quantitative approach to the history, The Russian data are very interesting. In the especially to the history of the technology, is revolutionary 1917 and in the first year of the very fruitful, but request a lot of work: the data Civil War the growth of characteristics of were collected during 20 years. The manufactured airplanes continues (although investigation continues and, probably, presented there was a collapse in quantity in 1918). But data will be slightly corrected. unlike all other European powers, the growth at The author would be glad to tell the first period of the war is extremely slow, colleagues about his experience, about two years have been just lost without any difficulties in this way, to share results and to benefit. This gives us an argument in support give quantitative information about airplane the point of view, that Russia fell from the war history of XX century. THE NUMERICAL HISTORY OF AIRPLANES MANUFACTURING IN XX CENTURY

References [1] Uziel D. Arming the Luftwaffe: The German aviation industry in World War II, McFarland & Co., 2012, ISBN 978-0-7864-6521-7, s.88 [2] Meltukhov M.I. The Stalin’s lost chance. Soviet Union and the fight for the Europe. Moscow, Veche, 2008, ISBN 978-5-9533-2697-1, p. 600 (in Russian) [3] Brütting G., Supf P. Das Buch der deutschen Fluggeschichte. Die große Zeit der deutschen Luftfahrt bis 1945; Drei Brunnen Verlag, 2008 (2nd edition) ISBN 978-3-7956-0289-5 [4] Vajda F.A., Dancey P.G. German aircraft industry and production 1933–1945. Airlife Publishing, 1998, ISBN 1-85310-864-2 [5] J.C. Fahey. U.S. Army aircraft (heavier-than-air) 1908-1946. Ships and Aircraft, 1946, p 8 [6] Yu.V. Kuzmin. How many airplanes were there? ICAS report, 29th congress, SPb, Russia, 2014, # 2014_1036, ISBN 3-932182-80-4 [7] Yu.V. Zasypkin, G.V. Kostyrchenko, Yu.V. Kuzmin and other, ed. by D.A. Sobolev. The history of homeland aircraft industry. Airplane mass production 1910-2010. Moscow, Rusavia, 2011, ISBN 978-5-900078-66-3 (in Russian) [8] Yu.V. Kuzmin. USSR and Russia: airplane production in numbers. Aviacia i Kosmonavtika No 8 2014., pp.1-7, ISSN 0373-9821 (in Russian) [9] United States Air Forces statistical digest. Washington, Office of statistical control, 1947 [10] D.A. Sobolev. Invention of airplane ICAS report, 29th congress, SPb, Russia, 2014, # 2014_1035, ISBN 3- 932182-80-4 [11] Historical crude oil prices. Inflation data. URL: www.inflationdata.com [12] General Aviation statistical databook. 1990-1991 edition. General Aviation Manufacturer Organization, Washington D.C., 1991, p.601.

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